<p>The BJP has won the Gujarat election but failed to cross the 100 mark.&nbsp;</p>

<p>It won 99 of the state&#39;s 182 seats, while the Congres won 77.&nbsp;</p>

<p>In Himachal, the BJP won 44 of the state&#39;s 68 seats, while the Congress won 20.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Counting is still underway in Himachal in two seats -- with the Congress leading in one of them.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Also read:&nbsp;<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/election-results-bjp-wins-gujaratand-himachal-27098" target="_blank">Election results prove country ready for reform, says Modi</a></p>

<p>Also read: <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/congress-slowly-losing-power-ruling-only-four-states-following-election-27109" target="_blank">After Gujarat, Himachal losses, Congress left in power in only four states</a></p>

<p>An independent candidate is leading in the other.&nbsp;</p>

<p>In the last elections, the BJP had won 115 seats in Gujarat. Which means it has won 16 fewer seats than last time.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Anti-incumbency of course might have been to blame; the BJP has been in power for 22 years in the state.&nbsp;</p>

<p>But the BJP has probably taken a bigger hit because of the various protest movements against it led by Hardik Patel (the Patidars), Jignesh Mevani (the Dalits), and Alpesh Thakor (the OBCs).&nbsp;</p>

<p>Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav was quick to pick on the drop in the BJP&#39;s tally, saying it pointed to the hollowness of the Gujarat model of development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Commentators have also pointed out that the Gujarat model of development (one which sees high growth) has not been accompanied by a growth in jobs.&nbsp;</p>

<p>That they say is what explains the Patidar agitation for reservations in government jobs and educational institutions.&nbsp;</p>

<p>In Himachal, the BJP won 18 more seats than last time.&nbsp;</p>

<p>But in Himachal, anti-incumbency would have worked for the BJP and not against it.&nbsp;</p>


In Gujarat, the BJP won 16 fewer seats than last time

The BJP has won the Gujarat election but failed to cross the 100 mark. It won 99 of the state's 182 seats, while the Congres won 77. In Himachal, the BJP won 44 of the state's 68 seats, while the Congress won 20. Counting is still underway in Himachal in two seats -- with the Congress leading in one of them. Also read: Election results prove country ready for reform, says Modi Also read: After Gujarat, Himachal losses, Congress left in power in only four states An independent candidate is leading in the other. In the last elections, the BJP had won 115 seats in Gujarat. Which means it has won 16 fewer seats than last time. Anti-incumbency of course might have been to blame; the BJP has been in power for 22 years in the state. But the BJP has probably taken a bigger hit because of the various protest movements against it led by Hardik Patel (the Patidars), Jignesh Mevani (the Dalits), and Alpesh Thakor (the OBCs). Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav was quick to pick on the drop in the BJP's tally, saying it pointed to the hollowness of the Gujarat model of development. Commentators have also pointed out that the Gujarat model of development (one which sees high growth) has not been accompanied by a growth in jobs. That they say is what explains the Patidar agitation for reservations in government jobs and educational institutions. In Himachal, the BJP won 18 more seats than last time. But in Himachal, anti-incumbency would have worked for the BJP and not against it.

BJP wins Gujarat but does not cross 100 mark, takes Himachal easily

<p><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/election-results-bjp-wins-gujarat-27098">Election results prove country ready for reform: Modi after Gujarat win</a></p>

<p>The BJP has won the Gujarat election, reaching the victory mark of&nbsp;92.</p>

<p>Ninety-two is the victory mark in the 182-seat state.&nbsp;</p>

<p><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/i-bow-to-people-of-gujarat-and-himachal-modi-27072">I bow to people of Gujarat and Himachal: Modi</a></p>

<p>&quot;I bow to the people of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh for their affection and trust in BJP,&quot; Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted on Monday.&nbsp;</p>

<p><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/hardik-patel-claims-tampering-of-evms-in-surat-rajkot-ahmedabad-27070">EVMs tampered </a><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/hardik-patel-claims-tampering-of-evms-in-surat-rajkot-ahmedabad-27070">in</a><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/hardik-patel-claims-tampering-of-evms-in-surat-rajkot-ahmedabad-27070"> Surat, Rajkot, Ahmedabad, says </a><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/hardik-patel-claims-tampering-of-evms-in-surat-rajkot-ahmedabad-27070">Hardik</a><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/hardik-patel-claims-tampering-of-evms-in-surat-rajkot-ahmedabad-27070"> Patel</a></p>

<p>Patidar leader Hardik Patel has claimed that there has been tampering in EVMs in Surat, Rajkot <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/hardik-patel-claims-tampering-of-evms-in-surat-rajkot-ahmedabad-27070">and</a><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/hardik-patel-claims-tampering-of-evms-in-surat-rajkot-ahmedabad-27070"> Ahmedabad.</a></p>

<p>He said that the gap between the rival candidates was very less in places wherever tempering happened. &nbsp;</p>

<p><a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/trump-to-lay-out-america-first-security-strategy-27092">President Trump to lay out &#39;America First&#39; security strategy</a></p>

<p>President Donald Trump is set to lay out Monday a new National Security Strategy built upon his trademark &quot;America First&quot; slogan, which is expected to have economic security at its core.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/entertainment-k-pop-band-shinees-lead-singer-kim-jonghyun-reportedly-commits-suicide-27096">K-pop band SHINee&#39;s lead singer Kim Jonghyun reportedly commits suicide</a></p>

<p>The lead singer of South Korean boy band SHINee, Kim Jong-hyun, died Monday.</p>

<p>He was found unconscious at his home in Seoul, South Korea before being taken to hospital where he was declared dead.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Election results prove country ready for reform: Modi after Gujarat win The BJP has won the Gujarat election, reaching the victory mark of 92. Ninety-two is the victory mark in the 182-seat state. I bow to people of Gujarat and Himachal: Modi "I bow to the people of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh for their affection and trust in BJP," Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted on Monday. EVMs tampered in Surat, Rajkot, Ahmedabad, says Hardik Patel Patidar leader Hardik Patel has claimed that there has been tampering in EVMs in Surat, Rajkot and Ahmedabad. He said that the gap between the rival candidates was very less in places wherever tempering happened. President Trump to lay out 'America First' security strategy President Donald Trump is set to lay out Monday a new National Security Strategy built upon his trademark "America First" slogan, which is expected to have economic security at its core. K-pop band SHINee's lead singer Kim Jonghyun reportedly commits suicide The lead singer of South Korean boy band SHINee, Kim Jong-hyun, died Monday. He was found unconscious at his home in Seoul, South Korea before being taken to hospital where he was declared dead.

WION Evening News Brief, December 18, 2017

<p>The Ahmedabad district collector has rejected as &quot;baseless&quot; Patidar leader Hardik Patel&#39;s allegations that an Ahmedabad company hired 140 engineers are hired to hack 5000 EVMs.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&quot;These are baseless allegations. I don&#39;t think any clarification is needed. Even if any clarification is to be issued, it will be issued by EC,&quot; Avantika Singh, Ahmedabad district collector told ANI.</p>

<p>Hardik Patel had tweeted: An Ahmedabad company has hired 140 software engineers to hack the source code of 5000 EVM machines.</p>

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<p dir="ltr" lang="hi">???????? ?? ?? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ???????? ???????? ?? ????? ?? ???? EVM ???? ?? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ?????? ????</p>
&mdash; Hardik Patel (@HardikPatel_) <a href="https://twitter.com/HardikPatel_/status/942109589809623040?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 16, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<p>The&nbsp;Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) convener&nbsp;also alleged that there had been an attempt to tamper with EVMs in the Patel and tribal assembly constituencies. He added that if ATMs could be hacked, there was no reason why EVMs couldn&#39;t be.</p>

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<p dir="ltr" lang="hi">??????,????,???????,??????,????,???,??????,??????-??,??,??,????-?????,??????????,?????????,??????,???????,?????????,?????,????????,???? ?? ???? ???? ???? ?? ??????? ?????? ?? ???????? ??????? ??? EVM ????? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ?????? ???? ????</p>
&mdash; Hardik Patel (@HardikPatel_) <a href="https://twitter.com/HardikPatel_/status/942285886800134145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 17, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="hi">???? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ???? ????? ????? ??? ???? ?????<br />
????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ????? ???? ??? ???????? ?? ???? ?? ?? ???? ?? ?????? ???? ?? EVM ???? ??? ????? ???????? ???? ?? ???? !! ATM ??? ?? ???? ?? ?? EVM ????? ???? !!!</p>
&mdash; Hardik Patel (@HardikPatel_) <a href="https://twitter.com/HardikPatel_/status/942291713179217920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 17, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<p>On Saturday <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/gujarat-polls-hardik-patel-questions-scs-rejection-of-congress-plea-26920">Hardik Patel had questioned</a> the Supreme Court&#39;s decision to reject Congress&#39; plea seeking cross-verification of Voter-Verified Paper Audit Trails with votes cast with Electronic Voting Machines.</p>

<p>He also said if EVMs were not tampered with then the exit polls&#39; results, which showed Bharatiya Janata Party&#39;s victory in the state polls, would be proven wrong.</p>

<p>&quot;I think exit polls&#39; results will be proven wrong. If EVMs do not malfunction then BJP will lose the election. I have 100 percent doubt on EVMs,&quot; he had said.<br />
<br />
Hardik Patel along with Patidar leaders Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani have challenged the ruling BJP government in the state in the recently-concluded assembly elections.</p>

<p>The results of the elections will be declared tomorrow.</p>


The Ahmedabad district collector has rejected as 'baseless' Patidar leader Hardik Patel's allegations that an Ahmedabad company hired 140 engineers are hired to hack 5000 EVMs

The Ahmedabad district collector has rejected as "baseless" Patidar leader Hardik Patel's allegations that an Ahmedabad company hired 140 engineers are hired to hack 5000 EVMs. "These are baseless allegations. I don't think any clarification is needed. Even if any clarification is to be issued, it will be issued by EC," Avantika Singh, Ahmedabad district collector told ANI. Hardik Patel had tweeted: An Ahmedabad company has hired 140 software engineers to hack the source code of 5000 EVM machines. ???????? ?? ?? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ???????? ???????? ?? ????? ?? ???? EVM ???? ?? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ?????? ???? — Hardik Patel (@HardikPatel_) December 16, 2017 × The Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) convener also alleged that there had been an attempt to tamper with EVMs in the Patel and tribal assembly constituencies. He added that if ATMs could be hacked, there was no reason why EVMs couldn't be. ??????,????,???????,??????,????,???,??????,??????-??,??,??,????-?????,??????????,?????????,??????,???????,?????????,?????,????????,???? ?? ???? ???? ???? ?? ??????? ?????? ?? ???????? ??????? ??? EVM ????? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ?????? ???? ???? — Hardik Patel (@HardikPatel_) December 17, 2017 × ???? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ???? ????? ????? ??? ???? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ????? ???? ??? ???????? ?? ???? ?? ?? ???? ?? ?????? ???? ?? EVM ???? ??? ????? ???????? ???? ?? ???? !! ATM ??? ?? ???? ?? ?? EVM ????? ???? !!! — Hardik Patel (@HardikPatel_) December 17, 2017 × On Saturday Hardik Patel had questioned the Supreme Court's decision to reject Congress' plea seeking cross-verification of Voter-Verified Paper Audit Trails with votes cast with Electronic Voting Machines. He also said if EVMs were not tampered with then the exit polls' results, which showed Bharatiya Janata Party's victory in the state polls, would be proven wrong. "I think exit polls' results will be proven wrong. If EVMs do not malfunction then BJP will lose the election. I have 100 percent doubt on EVMs," he had said. Hardik Patel along with Patidar leaders Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani have challenged the ruling BJP government in the state in the recently-concluded assembly elections. The results of the elections will be declared tomorrow.

Gujarat elections: Hardik Patel alleges EVM hacking, allegation rejected

<p>Incumbent Chief Minister of Gujarat, Vijay Rupani says that he is confident of an easy victory for ruling party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).</p>

<p>&quot;I am confident that the results will be in favour of BJP. BJP will form the government and will get more than two-thirds of the (182 Gujarat Assembly) seats,&quot; ANI reported Rupani as saying.</p>

<p>He also added, &quot;Gujarat public has preferred politics of development, and development was brought in by Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi and the BJP,&quot; ANI reported.</p>

<p>Rupani also the called the allegations of Congress tampering with electronic voting machines (EVMs) &quot;baseless &nbsp;charges.&quot;</p>

<p>He said that the allegations were made &quot;so that the responsibility of defeat does not fall on Rahul Gandhi&quot; when the results would be declared on Monday.</p>

<p>Hardik Patel&#39;s allegations of hiring 140 engineers to tamper 5000 EVMs were also dismissed by Rupani.</p>

<p>The counting of the two-phase Gujarat Assembly election will be held tomorrow.</p>

<p>While the majority of exit polls have predicted BJP&#39;s win, Congress is hopeful of bagging Patidar votes and overthrowing BJP from 22 years of governance in the state.</p>

<p>(<em>With inputs from ANI)</em></p>


Vijay Rupani also added, 'Gujarat public has preferred politics of development, and development was brought in by Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi and the BJP'

Incumbent Chief Minister of Gujarat, Vijay Rupani says that he is confident of an easy victory for ruling party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). "I am confident that the results will be in favour of BJP. BJP will form the government and will get more than two-thirds of the (182 Gujarat Assembly) seats," ANI reported Rupani as saying. He also added, "Gujarat public has preferred politics of development, and development was brought in by Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi and the BJP," ANI reported. Rupani also the called the allegations of Congress tampering with electronic voting machines (EVMs) "baseless charges." He said that the allegations were made "so that the responsibility of defeat does not fall on Rahul Gandhi" when the results would be declared on Monday. Hardik Patel's allegations of hiring 140 engineers to tamper 5000 EVMs were also dismissed by Rupani. The counting of the two-phase Gujarat Assembly election will be held tomorrow. While the majority of exit polls have predicted BJP's win, Congress is hopeful of bagging Patidar votes and overthrowing BJP from 22 years of governance in the state. (With inputs from ANI)

Gujarat results: Rupani confident of bagging more than two-third seats

<p>Patidar leader Hardik Patel on Saturday questioned Supreme Court&#39;s decision to reject Congress&#39; plea, seeking cross-verification of Voter-Verified Paper Audit Trails with votes cast with Electronic Voting Machines and asked why they were used in the Gujarat elections.</p>

<p>&quot;Why are VVPATs used in the first place&nbsp;It is used for smooth counting of votes wherever there is a fault. I do not understand Supreme Court&#39;s stand on the issue,&quot; the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) convener said.</p>

<p>He also said if EVMs were not tampered with then the exit polls&#39; results, which showed Bharatiya Janata Party&#39;s victory in the state polls, would be proven wrong.</p>

<p>&quot;I think exit polls&#39; results will be proven wrong. If EVMs do not malfunction then BJP will lose the election. I have 100 percent doubt on EVMs,&quot; he said.</p>

<p>Patel&#39;s statement comes a day after the apex court dismissed the Congress&#39; plea seeking directions to the Election Commission (EC) to count and cross verify at least 25 percent of VVPAT with votes cast with EVM.</p>

<p>Yesterday, the apex court said it found no merit in Congress&#39; plea and asked that the Gujarat Congress could approach it through filing a writ petition for electoral reforms.</p>

<p>It further maintained that electoral process in a democracy was of utmost importance and the Supreme Court cannot interfere only to allay apprehension of a party.</p>

<p>The voting for the two-phase Gujarat Assembly election ended on Thursday and counting of votes will be held on December 18.</p>


The voting for the two-phase Gujarat Assembly election ended on Thursday and counting of votes will be held on December 18

Patidar leader Hardik Patel on Saturday questioned Supreme Court's decision to reject Congress' plea, seeking cross-verification of Voter-Verified Paper Audit Trails with votes cast with Electronic Voting Machines and asked why they were used in the Gujarat elections. "Why are VVPATs used in the first place It is used for smooth counting of votes wherever there is a fault. I do not understand Supreme Court's stand on the issue," the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) convener said. He also said if EVMs were not tampered with then the exit polls' results, which showed Bharatiya Janata Party's victory in the state polls, would be proven wrong. "I think exit polls' results will be proven wrong. If EVMs do not malfunction then BJP will lose the election. I have 100 percent doubt on EVMs," he said. Patel's statement comes a day after the apex court dismissed the Congress' plea seeking directions to the Election Commission (EC) to count and cross verify at least 25 percent of VVPAT with votes cast with EVM. Yesterday, the apex court said it found no merit in Congress' plea and asked that the Gujarat Congress could approach it through filing a writ petition for electoral reforms. It further maintained that electoral process in a democracy was of utmost importance and the Supreme Court cannot interfere only to allay apprehension of a party. The voting for the two-phase Gujarat Assembly election ended on Thursday and counting of votes will be held on December 18.

Gujarat polls: Hardik Patel questions Supreme Court rejection of Congress's plea

<p>As voting for the final phase of Gujarat assembly ends today, a look back at how the motif of Modi&rsquo;s campaign rhetoric has evolved.</p>

<p><strong>2002: Aggressive BJP harvests polarisation</strong></p>

<p>Gujarat has been called a laboratory after Narendra Modi was sent from Delhi to take over the reins of the state. During the 2002 &nbsp;campaign, Modi and BJP had a simple job. The polarisation after the communal riots ensured all they had to do was to harvest the communal rift. The Congress, at that time the opposition party in the&nbsp;centre as well as the state, was clueless. It probably thought that to speak on justice for Muslims will impact their poll prospects. Six months after the riots broke happened the Akshardham terror attack, which took place just before the polls, ensured that Modi made it a Mia Musharraf vs Modi theme for the campaign that BJP won handsomely.</p>

<p><em><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/opinion-lanka-vikas-seaplanes-and-pesticides-the-curious-case-of-hardik-patel-26620"><strong>Also read: Opinion: Lanka, </strong></a></em><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/opinion-lanka-vikas-seaplanes-and-pesticides-the-curious-case-of-hardik-patel-26620"><strong><em>vikas</em></strong></a><em><strong><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/opinion-lanka-vikas-seaplanes-and-pesticides-the-curious-case-of-hardik-patel-26620">, seaplanes and pesticides - The curious case of Hardik Patel</a></strong></em></p>

<p><strong>2007: CM Modi firmly at the helm, Congress tries to get &nbsp;aggressive</strong></p>

<p>Buoyed by its 2004 Loksabha victory and winning 12 seats in the state, Congress took CM Modi head on. By this time, Mr Modi had already been established as the supreme leader of Gujarat, leaving behind, among others, Keshubhai Patel and Suresh Mehta. As riot victims were still waiting for justice, polarisation continued unabated. Since the Congress government was at the centre, it became Modi&rsquo;s prime target.</p>

<p>Congress, in turn, did what it could not dare in 2002, called <i>Modi Maut ka Saudagar</i> (merchant of death) suggesting his direct role in riots. This backfired big time. BJP made it Gujarati Pride versus Congress rule of Sonia and Ahmed Mia. BJP&rsquo;s tally came down by 10 but it won the state.</p>

<p><b>2012: &lsquo;Gujarat Model&rsquo; emerges as social media booms, Congress reels under graft charges</b></p>

<p>2012 was PM Modi&rsquo;s last election as CM. The BJP had surged ahead by its clever use of new social media tools like the Facebook and Twitter. It boosted the &lsquo;unique Gujarat Model&rsquo; &mdash; sometimes truthfully and other times not. But Gujarat, development and Modi became synonymous terms even as Congress suffered huge image crisis during the Anna Hazare agitation of 2011-12.</p>

<p><em><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/opinion-gujarat-elections-is-26530"><strong>Also read: Opinion: Gujarat elections, a litmus test for Rahul</strong></a></em></p>

<p>Now Mr Modi needed no Praveen Togadiya or Acharya Dharmendra to serve as development planks. It soon became evident that Chief Minister Modi has the potential to be India&#39;s prime minister. Despite the party having 40 per cent vote, the Congress was unable to compete and lost to BJP again.</p>

<p><strong>2017 &lsquo;Gujarat Model&rsquo; goes on back burner and Pakistan returns</strong></p>

<p>A 15-year rule under one leader is really a long time in politics. What worked in 2012 is looking doubtful as crowd size at Modi rally was shrinking. By now, the BJP was no longer the exclusive player in the social media nor the biggest crowd puller. Opponents had taken a leaf out of BJP&rsquo;s books, including the Patidars.</p>

<p>The disgruntled youth flocking Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mewani&rsquo;s rallies were probably 6-10 year old during 2002-2007 but have been denied decent primary education; Gujarat ranks 33 among 35 states in terms of providing access to schools. Anti-incumbency ensured that basic issues, such as primary education, infant mortality, unemployment started factoring in.</p>

<p>Once the backbone of the party, Patels had turned into BJP&rsquo;s staunch baiters. With the presence of 15 per cent or more in most seats - they have potential to cover the gap between Congress and BJP. Add Dalit and OBC votes to it, and BJP suddenly looked vulnerable.</p>

<p>From &lsquo;Mia Musharraf&rsquo; in 2002, &lsquo;Gujarat Model&rsquo; in 2012 to again &lsquo;Pakistan connection&rsquo; in 2017, Modi had tried various catch-lines for his quest for Gujarat.</p>

<p>As desperate BJP tries to cling on to something or other, including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh&rsquo;s secret &lsquo;Pakistan connection,&#39; the small traders were upset with BJP&rsquo;s GST and note-ban decisions, and Rahul and Hardik were pulling a huge crowd.</p>

<p>If BJP loses, it would be its second major loss after Bihar, wherein caste mobilisation of RJD-JDU-Congress had overcome religious polarisation of BJP in 2015. &nbsp;If Hardik - Jignesh - Alpesh&rsquo;s caste conscious agenda helps Congress win, it will once again prove that religious mobilisation can be countered by caste mobilisation.</p>

<p>If BJP still manages the victory, an emboldened BJP may opt for an unprecedentedly vicious 2019 campaign to beat anti-incumbency.</p>

<p><em>(Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity).</em></p>


From ?Mia Musharraf? in 2002, ?Gujarat Model? in 2012 to again ?Pakistan connection? in 2017, Modi had tried various catch-lines for his quest for Gujarat

As voting for the final phase of Gujarat assembly ends today, a look back at how the motif of Modi’s campaign rhetoric has evolved. 2002: Aggressive BJP harvests polarisation Gujarat has been called a laboratory after Narendra Modi was sent from Delhi to take over the reins of the state. During the 2002 campaign, Modi and BJP had a simple job. The polarisation after the communal riots ensured all they had to do was to harvest the communal rift. The Congress, at that time the opposition party in the centre as well as the state, was clueless. It probably thought that to speak on justice for Muslims will impact their poll prospects. Six months after the riots broke happened the Akshardham terror attack, which took place just before the polls, ensured that Modi made it a Mia Musharraf vs Modi theme for the campaign that BJP won handsomely. Also read: Opinion: Lanka, vikas, seaplanes and pesticides - The curious case of Hardik Patel 2007: CM Modi firmly at the helm, Congress tries to get aggressive Buoyed by its 2004 Loksabha victory and winning 12 seats in the state, Congress took CM Modi head on. By this time, Mr Modi had already been established as the supreme leader of Gujarat, leaving behind, among others, Keshubhai Patel and Suresh Mehta. As riot victims were still waiting for justice, polarisation continued unabated. Since the Congress government was at the centre, it became Modi’s prime target. Congress, in turn, did what it could not dare in 2002, called Modi Maut ka Saudagar (merchant of death) suggesting his direct role in riots. This backfired big time. BJP made it Gujarati Pride versus Congress rule of Sonia and Ahmed Mia. BJP’s tally came down by 10 but it won the state. 2012: ‘Gujarat Model’ emerges as social media booms, Congress reels under graft charges 2012 was PM Modi’s last election as CM. The BJP had surged ahead by its clever use of new social media tools like the Facebook and Twitter. It boosted the ‘unique Gujarat Model’ — sometimes truthfully and other times not. But Gujarat, development and Modi became synonymous terms even as Congress suffered huge image crisis during the Anna Hazare agitation of 2011-12. Also read: Opinion: Gujarat elections, a litmus test for Rahul Now Mr Modi needed no Praveen Togadiya or Acharya Dharmendra to serve as development planks. It soon became evident that Chief Minister Modi has the potential to be India's prime minister. Despite the party having 40 per cent vote, the Congress was unable to compete and lost to BJP again. 2017 ‘Gujarat Model’ goes on back burner and Pakistan returns A 15-year rule under one leader is really a long time in politics. What worked in 2012 is looking doubtful as crowd size at Modi rally was shrinking. By now, the BJP was no longer the exclusive player in the social media nor the biggest crowd puller. Opponents had taken a leaf out of BJP’s books, including the Patidars. The disgruntled youth flocking Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mewani’s rallies were probably 6-10 year old during 2002-2007 but have been denied decent primary education; Gujarat ranks 33 among 35 states in terms of providing access to schools. Anti-incumbency ensured that basic issues, such as primary education, infant mortality, unemployment started factoring in. Once the backbone of the party, Patels had turned into BJP’s staunch baiters. With the presence of 15 per cent or more in most seats - they have potential to cover the gap between Congress and BJP. Add Dalit and OBC votes to it, and BJP suddenly looked vulnerable. From ‘Mia Musharraf’ in 2002, ‘Gujarat Model’ in 2012 to again ‘Pakistan connection’ in 2017, Modi had tried various catch-lines for his quest for Gujarat. As desperate BJP tries to cling on to something or other, including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s secret ‘Pakistan connection,' the small traders were upset with BJP’s GST and note-ban decisions, and Rahul and Hardik were pulling a huge crowd. If BJP loses, it would be its second major loss after Bihar, wherein caste mobilisation of RJD-JDU-Congress had overcome religious polarisation of BJP in 2015. If Hardik - Jignesh - Alpesh’s caste conscious agenda helps Congress win, it will once again prove that religious mobilisation can be countered by caste mobilisation. If BJP still manages the victory, an emboldened BJP may opt for an unprecedentedly vicious 2019 campaign to beat anti-incumbency. (Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity).

Opinion:?BJP's catchlines which helped to win Gujarat elections

<p>Hardik Patel tweeted after the Gujarat elections, saying &quot;great change&quot; was coming to Gujarat.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&quot;A storm from the north, a lion from Saurashtra, anger from the south, together they will lead to great change,&quot; the Patidar leader said.&nbsp;</p>

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<p dir="ltr" lang="hi">????? ?? ????,????????? ?? ???,?????? ?? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ???????????</p>
&mdash; Hardik Patel (@HardikPatel_) <a href="https://twitter.com/HardikPatel_/status/941303687447744513?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 14, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<a class="close-mark close-div" href="#" id="jqclosemark">&times;</a></div>

<p>Voting for the Gujarat assembly elections came to an end today.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The campaign for Gujarat has been <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/modi-claims-pakistan-trying-to-influence-gujarat-elections-26391" target="_blank">long and bitter</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p>And at points the ruling BJP -- they&#39;ve been in power for 22 years -- has looked nervous.&nbsp;</p>

<p>A large reason for that has been Hardik exhorting his community to vote against the BJP. (The Patels make up 12 per cent of Gujarat&#39;s population.)&nbsp;</p>

<p>The <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/exit-poll-results-2017-bjp-to-retain-gujarat-overthrow-congress-in-himachal-pradesh-26751" target="_blank">exit polls</a> however seem to disagree with Hardik.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Most of them have said Gujarat will go to the BJP again, although with a two per cent drop in vote share.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Congress meanwhile, the exit polls say, will see a two per cent increase in vote share.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The exit polls add that the BJP will overthrow the Congress in Himachal Pradesh.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The results of both elections will be out on December 18.&nbsp;</p>


'A storm from the north, a lion from Saurashtra, anger from the south, together they will lead to great change,' the Patidar leader said

Hardik Patel tweeted after the Gujarat elections, saying "great change" was coming to Gujarat. "A storm from the north, a lion from Saurashtra, anger from the south, together they will lead to great change," the Patidar leader said. ????? ?? ????,????????? ?? ???,?????? ?? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ??????????? — Hardik Patel (@HardikPatel_) December 14, 2017 × Voting for the Gujarat assembly elections came to an end today. The campaign for Gujarat has been long and bitter. And at points the ruling BJP -- they've been in power for 22 years -- has looked nervous. A large reason for that has been Hardik exhorting his community to vote against the BJP. (The Patels make up 12 per cent of Gujarat's population.) The exit polls however seem to disagree with Hardik. Most of them have said Gujarat will go to the BJP again, although with a two per cent drop in vote share. The Congress meanwhile, the exit polls say, will see a two per cent increase in vote share. The exit polls add that the BJP will overthrow the Congress in Himachal Pradesh. The results of both elections will be out on December 18.

Hardik tweets, says 'great change' coming to Gujarat

<p>Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) convener Hardik Patel on Wednesday rejected the reports of his meeting with businessman and Congress president-elect Rahul Gandhi&#39;s brother-in-law Robert Vadra&quot; Robert Vadra.</p>

<p>Speaking to ANI, Hardik said that the reports of his meeting with Vadra were false.</p>

<p>&quot;Now they are alleging I met Robert Vadra. This is false. After ten days they can even claim I met Nawaz Sharif, then they will say I met Dawood Ibrahim,&quot; he said.</p>

<p>Hardik&#39;s former aide Dinesh Bambhania yesterday claimed that the Patidar leader had met Vadra at a five-star hotel in October.</p>

<p>Speaking about the Gujarat polls, Hardik said that he always pitched for people&#39;s right and never tried to put anyone down.</p>

<p>&quot;The people of Gujarat need a strong voice to support them. I have always raised my voice for people&#39;s right and asked everyone to fight for their right,&quot; he added.</p>

<p>Hardik has joined hands with the Congress party for the upcoming Gujarat assembly elections.</p>

<p>Last month, Hardik made headlines after he claimed that the Congress has agreed to give reservation to the Patidar community, if the party comes to power in Gujarat.</p>

<p>Patidars or Patels are an important group in Gujarat, who enjoy great political dominance in the state. (ANI)</p>


'Now they are alleging I met Robert Vadra. This is false. After ten days they can even claim I met Nawaz Sharif, then they will say I met Dawood Ibrahim,' said Hardik

Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) convener Hardik Patel on Wednesday rejected the reports of his meeting with businessman and Congress president-elect Rahul Gandhi's brother-in-law Robert Vadra" Robert Vadra. Speaking to ANI, Hardik said that the reports of his meeting with Vadra were false. "Now they are alleging I met Robert Vadra. This is false. After ten days they can even claim I met Nawaz Sharif, then they will say I met Dawood Ibrahim," he said. Hardik's former aide Dinesh Bambhania yesterday claimed that the Patidar leader had met Vadra at a five-star hotel in October. Speaking about the Gujarat polls, Hardik said that he always pitched for people's right and never tried to put anyone down. "The people of Gujarat need a strong voice to support them. I have always raised my voice for people's right and asked everyone to fight for their right," he added. Hardik has joined hands with the Congress party for the upcoming Gujarat assembly elections. Last month, Hardik made headlines after he claimed that the Congress has agreed to give reservation to the Patidar community, if the party comes to power in Gujarat. Patidars or Patels are an important group in Gujarat, who enjoy great political dominance in the state. (ANI)

Gujarat elections: Hardik rebuffs report of meeting with Robert Vadra

<p>Over the last few days, the discourse in the media seems to be dominated by war of words between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. At the centre of this discourse are exchanges - the verdict is still out on who-said-what - targeted at Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And poor <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/after-neech-jibe-on-pm-modi-congress-suspends-mani-shankar-aiyar-26159">Mani Shankar Aiyar</a>, now suspended from the Congress, is struggling to provide an explanation or the context to what-on-earth-prompted him to call the PM &#39;neech&#39;.</p>

<p>Much of the campaign in 2014 was dominated by political capital made from his &lsquo;chaiwalla&rsquo; comment, and one would have thought that Aiyar and his Congress friends would have learnt how personal attacks on Mr Modi don&rsquo;t bear fruit. Here was Rahul Gandhi, the president-elect of the Congress party, indulging the Prime Minister and his incumbent BJP - a party that has ruled Gujarat since 1995 - in a game of 10 questions - and along came the &lsquo;neech&rsquo; comment and put paid to a strategy that many say was well thought out.</p>

<p>My gut feeling is that this <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/why-military-intelligence-from-pakistan-suggesting-ahmed-patel-for-gujarat-cm-pm-modi-26364">&lsquo;tu-tu-main-main&rsquo;</a> will not impact the outcome greatly. Media often plays to political rhetoric and, sitting in Delhi, the two principal political parties trading barbs seems to be a good way to cover the goings-on in Gujarat. On the&nbsp;ground, these may not be reflective of the concerns of Maqsud bhai and Mansukh bhai. The people of Gujarat have made up their mind and they have real issues - unemployment and the impact of GST and demonetisation seem to be the pervading themes. The rehtoric will not sway how they vote.</p>

<p>Too much should not be read into the <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/gujarat-elections-live-first-phase-of-polling-begins-26288">poll percentage</a> - 68% - down from last elections 72% but still a healthy turnout. 89 of the 182 constituencies have voted and the fates of 977 candidates are already sealed in EVMs. While many pollsters have predicted a decline in fortunes for the BJP in the areas of south Gujarat and Saurashtra that have polled, these are comparisons to the wildly successful Lok Sabha campaign of 2014. Extrapolate those and the BJP won in 85 of the 89 seats that voted in the first phase. A more realistic comparison would be the 2012 assembly elections where the party won 63 of these 89 seats. An encore would not only see the BJP to a comfortable majority but would also do away with all the anti-incumbency talk. Sure, the BJP&rsquo;s claims of winning 150 seats in Gujarat could have been born out of political chest-thumping and bravado, but getting almost a two-thirds majority in a state that they&rsquo;ve ruled for 22 years is definitely creditable.</p>

<p><strong>The Hardik Patel Factor</strong></p>

<p>The Congress is not dictating the discourse in this campaign - what it has successfully managed to do is piggy-back on certain situations and ride a wave. The question that pundits don&rsquo;t seem to agree upon is how the Hardik Patel factor will affect the BJP&rsquo;s fortunes, but what is there in plain sight for everyone to see is that Hardik has done all the heavy-lifting for the Congress. There is no denying the fact that there has been resentment is many sections of Gujarat&rsquo;s population over demonetisation and GST - both measures hit business hard. But this resentment may have been overestimated - on my trip to the state a month ago, the common refrain I heard talking to both members of the Patidaar (Patel) community and traders was &lsquo;gussa hain, gaddar nahi&rsquo; (we&rsquo;re angry but we aren&rsquo;t traitors).</p>

<p>With all eyes on the second phase, the Hardik Patel-factor may play a role in North Gujarat but will hardly influence voters in the central parts of the state where there are 61 seats. It is here that the BJP could offset some losses from other regions. The overbearing Paatidar campaign against the party could also consolidate backward caste votes in its favour.</p>

<p>With the Prime Minister fervently on the campaign trail and responding to the barbs against him, the spotlight has shifted to emotive issues and optics - and even the Congress president-elect seems to be falling prey to these - the &lsquo;janeudhari brahman&rsquo; is now seen at temples.</p>

<p>People in 93 constituencies will cast their votes on Thursday, December 14. And put to rest this debate on temple visits, oonch-neech and what-have-you. Meanwhile, did anyone <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/bjp-will-score-a-historic-win-ravi-shankar-prasad-26287">miss the manifestos</a> this time? Just in case you did - the Congress released theirs on December 4 and the BJP on the eve of polling. In Gujarat, it seems, polls don&rsquo;t even need manifestos - the lip-service paid by both the principal parties certainly suggests that.</p>

<p><em>(Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity)</em></p>


Gujarat elections are about what the people want, not what politicians prattle over.

Over the last few days, the discourse in the media seems to be dominated by war of words between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. At the centre of this discourse are exchanges - the verdict is still out on who-said-what - targeted at Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And poor Mani Shankar Aiyar, now suspended from the Congress, is struggling to provide an explanation or the context to what-on-earth-prompted him to call the PM 'neech'. Much of the campaign in 2014 was dominated by political capital made from his ‘chaiwalla’ comment, and one would have thought that Aiyar and his Congress friends would have learnt how personal attacks on Mr Modi don’t bear fruit. Here was Rahul Gandhi, the president-elect of the Congress party, indulging the Prime Minister and his incumbent BJP - a party that has ruled Gujarat since 1995 - in a game of 10 questions - and along came the ‘neech’ comment and put paid to a strategy that many say was well thought out. My gut feeling is that this ‘tu-tu-main-main’ will not impact the outcome greatly. Media often plays to political rhetoric and, sitting in Delhi, the two principal political parties trading barbs seems to be a good way to cover the goings-on in Gujarat. On the ground, these may not be reflective of the concerns of Maqsud bhai and Mansukh bhai. The people of Gujarat have made up their mind and they have real issues - unemployment and the impact of GST and demonetisation seem to be the pervading themes. The rehtoric will not sway how they vote. Too much should not be read into the poll percentage - 68% - down from last elections 72% but still a healthy turnout. 89 of the 182 constituencies have voted and the fates of 977 candidates are already sealed in EVMs. While many pollsters have predicted a decline in fortunes for the BJP in the areas of south Gujarat and Saurashtra that have polled, these are comparisons to the wildly successful Lok Sabha campaign of 2014. Extrapolate those and the BJP won in 85 of the 89 seats that voted in the first phase. A more realistic comparison would be the 2012 assembly elections where the party won 63 of these 89 seats. An encore would not only see the BJP to a comfortable majority but would also do away with all the anti-incumbency talk. Sure, the BJP’s claims of winning 150 seats in Gujarat could have been born out of political chest-thumping and bravado, but getting almost a two-thirds majority in a state that they’ve ruled for 22 years is definitely creditable. The Hardik Patel Factor The Congress is not dictating the discourse in this campaign - what it has successfully managed to do is piggy-back on certain situations and ride a wave. The question that pundits don’t seem to agree upon is how the Hardik Patel factor will affect the BJP’s fortunes, but what is there in plain sight for everyone to see is that Hardik has done all the heavy-lifting for the Congress. There is no denying the fact that there has been resentment is many sections of Gujarat’s population over demonetisation and GST - both measures hit business hard. But this resentment may have been overestimated - on my trip to the state a month ago, the common refrain I heard talking to both members of the Patidaar (Patel) community and traders was ‘gussa hain, gaddar nahi’ (we’re angry but we aren’t traitors). With all eyes on the second phase, the Hardik Patel-factor may play a role in North Gujarat but will hardly influence voters in the central parts of the state where there are 61 seats. It is here that the BJP could offset some losses from other regions. The overbearing Paatidar campaign against the party could also consolidate backward caste votes in its favour. With the Prime Minister fervently on the campaign trail and responding to the barbs against him, the spotlight has shifted to emotive issues and optics - and even the Congress president-elect seems to be falling prey to these - the ‘janeudhari brahman’ is now seen at temples. People in 93 constituencies will cast their votes on Thursday, December 14. And put to rest this debate on temple visits, oonch-neech and what-have-you. Meanwhile, did anyone miss the manifestos this time? Just in case you did - the Congress released theirs on December 4 and the BJP on the eve of polling. In Gujarat, it seems, polls don’t even need manifestos - the lip-service paid by both the principal parties certainly suggests that. (Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity)

Opinion: BJP remains buoyant in Gujarat, Congress rides a wave, Hardik Patel does some heavy lifting

<p>Men rush in and out of two small rooms in a double-storeyed hotel off the Palanpur-Mehsana highway. The floor is littered with campaign material -- festoons, banners, posters - all bearing Jignesh Mevani&#39;s bearded and smiling face, eyes behind thick-rimmed glasses.</p>

<p>The Dalit lawyer-activist, along with Patidar quota leader Hardik Patel and OBC leader Alpesh Thakore, has emerged as the face of resistance against the BJP, which has ruled Gujarat for the last 20 years.</p>

<p>Late last month, he announced he was standing for election as an independent candidate from the Vadgam constituency of north Gujarat&#39;s Sabarkatha district, prompting the Congress to swiftly withdraw its candidate from the seat, a traditional stronghold of the party.</p>

<p>The highway-side dhaba-cum-hotel is Mevani&#39;s election headquarters where an assortment of young activists from in and around Gujarat and from faraway Jawaharlal Nehru University brainstorm to make the 35-year-old&#39;s maiden foray into electoral politics a success.</p>

<p>With around 1 lakh Muslims and Dalit voters in the 2.5 lakh-strong constituency, Mevani, who emerged as a Dalit spearhead after organising movements against atrocities against the community in Una, was largely expected to sail through.</p>

<p>But with a combination of local issues, Mevani&#39;s prospects suddenly appear a little bleak, says a local Congress supporter.</p>

<p>Three factors have been working against him. For one, Mevani is being seen as an outsider, since he is from Mehsana and his movement was largely based out of Saurashtra. A rebel Congress candidate is also in the fray. And there is a possible consolidation of Hindu votes cutting across castes.</p>

<p>&quot;Had the Congress fielded its own candidate, a victory was certain. But this time, there will be a contest,&quot; Abdul Haq, the supporter, says, reflecting the lack of enthusiasm among the Congress&#39;s foot soldiers in the area.</p>

<p>In Vadgam&#39;s Chhapi village, sarpanch Bharatbhai Patel, a Choudhary by caste, asserts, &quot;The Congress&#39;s tactical mistake of not fielding a candidate will cost it the seat.&quot;</p>

<p>He says Muslims, numbering around 70,000, may largely vote for Mevani, but votes of Dalits and other castes such as Thakores, Choudharys and Rajputs will get splintered between Mevani and rebel Congress candidate Ashvinbhai Parmar, son of a prominent local party leader.</p>

<p>&quot;I decided to contest as an independent only after people and party functionaries pitched for my candidature. Even last time I was denied a ticket but did not rebel. I do not want the Congress to lose its traditional seat,&quot; Parmar said.</p>

<p>Congress sitting MLA Manibhai Vaghela had won the seat, reserved for SCs, by a margin of 21,000 votes in the last Assembly polls. It was under Congress&#39;s control in the previous two terms, too, the sarpanch said.</p>

<p>There are strong voices in favour of Mevani as well, especially among the youth.</p>

<p>&quot;There will be no division of votes, at least not among Dalits and Muslims. Jignesh bhai has worked hard for these communities, braving the wrath of the State. People are flocking to his rallies in large numbers,&quot; 29-year-old Bhawesh Kumar, who runs a mobile repairing shop, says.</p>

<p>Mahesh Chauhan, a young Dalit, adds that what attracts him to Mevani is a practice that may push many others away. To be a part of his team, Chauhan has to contribute to Mevani&#39;s campaign funds.</p>

<p>&quot;People used to being showered by money and liquor by the other parties during elections are not used to this, which explains the antipathy towards Jignesh bhai professed by many,&quot; Chauhan says.</p>

<p>But BJP supporters of the area, used to defeats due to the complex caste and religion matrix, are hopeful of a good performance this time.</p>

<p>&quot;The Congress managed to hold on to the seat because of the large presence of Dalits and Muslims. But with the cracks in their camp, a BJP victory cannot be ruled out,&quot; a local grocery shop owner says.</p>

<p>Sarpanch Bharatbhai adds that the Congress did not base its entire campaign on Dalits and Muslims in earlier polls.</p>

<p>&quot;But Jignesh bhai has alienated a large section of Hindus by investing all his energies on Dalits and Muslims. The others are not taking it lightly,&quot; he says.&nbsp;</p>


With around 1 lakh Muslims and Dalit voters in the 2.5 lakh-strong constituency, the Dalit leader was expected to sail through

Men rush in and out of two small rooms in a double-storeyed hotel off the Palanpur-Mehsana highway. The floor is littered with campaign material -- festoons, banners, posters - all bearing Jignesh Mevani's bearded and smiling face, eyes behind thick-rimmed glasses. The Dalit lawyer-activist, along with Patidar quota leader Hardik Patel and OBC leader Alpesh Thakore, has emerged as the face of resistance against the BJP, which has ruled Gujarat for the last 20 years. Late last month, he announced he was standing for election as an independent candidate from the Vadgam constituency of north Gujarat's Sabarkatha district, prompting the Congress to swiftly withdraw its candidate from the seat, a traditional stronghold of the party. The highway-side dhaba-cum-hotel is Mevani's election headquarters where an assortment of young activists from in and around Gujarat and from faraway Jawaharlal Nehru University brainstorm to make the 35-year-old's maiden foray into electoral politics a success. With around 1 lakh Muslims and Dalit voters in the 2.5 lakh-strong constituency, Mevani, who emerged as a Dalit spearhead after organising movements against atrocities against the community in Una, was largely expected to sail through. But with a combination of local issues, Mevani's prospects suddenly appear a little bleak, says a local Congress supporter. Three factors have been working against him. For one, Mevani is being seen as an outsider, since he is from Mehsana and his movement was largely based out of Saurashtra. A rebel Congress candidate is also in the fray. And there is a possible consolidation of Hindu votes cutting across castes. "Had the Congress fielded its own candidate, a victory was certain. But this time, there will be a contest," Abdul Haq, the supporter, says, reflecting the lack of enthusiasm among the Congress's foot soldiers in the area. In Vadgam's Chhapi village, sarpanch Bharatbhai Patel, a Choudhary by caste, asserts, "The Congress's tactical mistake of not fielding a candidate will cost it the seat." He says Muslims, numbering around 70,000, may largely vote for Mevani, but votes of Dalits and other castes such as Thakores, Choudharys and Rajputs will get splintered between Mevani and rebel Congress candidate Ashvinbhai Parmar, son of a prominent local party leader. "I decided to contest as an independent only after people and party functionaries pitched for my candidature. Even last time I was denied a ticket but did not rebel. I do not want the Congress to lose its traditional seat," Parmar said. Congress sitting MLA Manibhai Vaghela had won the seat, reserved for SCs, by a margin of 21,000 votes in the last Assembly polls. It was under Congress's control in the previous two terms, too, the sarpanch said. There are strong voices in favour of Mevani as well, especially among the youth. "There will be no division of votes, at least not among Dalits and Muslims. Jignesh bhai has worked hard for these communities, braving the wrath of the State. People are flocking to his rallies in large numbers," 29-year-old Bhawesh Kumar, who runs a mobile repairing shop, says. Mahesh Chauhan, a young Dalit, adds that what attracts him to Mevani is a practice that may push many others away. To be a part of his team, Chauhan has to contribute to Mevani's campaign funds. "People used to being showered by money and liquor by the other parties during elections are not used to this, which explains the antipathy towards Jignesh bhai professed by many," Chauhan says. But BJP supporters of the area, used to defeats due to the complex caste and religion matrix, are hopeful of a good performance this time. "The Congress managed to hold on to the seat because of the large presence of Dalits and Muslims. But with the cracks in their camp, a BJP victory cannot be ruled out," a local grocery shop owner says. Sarpanch Bharatbhai adds that the Congress did not base its entire campaign on Dalits and Muslims in earlier polls. "But Jignesh bhai has alienated a large section of Hindus by investing all his energies on Dalits and Muslims. The others are not taking it lightly," he says.

Gujarat elections: In Vadgam, going suddenly appears tough for Jignesh Mevani

<p>With 68 per cent voter turnout in the first phase of Gujarat assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Sunday expressed confidence over its victory, and said, now, Congress should not harbour any illusion about the result.</p>

<p>Talking to ANI, BJP leader Shahnawaz Hussain said, &quot;The way in which first phase of Gujarat Assembly elections has concluded, it seems the public has decided to make Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP win by securing a three-fourths majority. Gujarat has cleared the misgivings of Congress through its turnout in the first phase.&quot;</p>

<p>He said people of the state did not accept the kind of language used against the Prime Minister.</p>

<p>&quot;The voting has been in favour of the BJP and there is an excitement among the people,&quot; Hussain further said.</p>

<p>Another BJP leader, Bizay Sonkar Shastri said the votes in the first phase were clearly in party&#39;s victory.</p>

<p>&quot;The first phase voting will benefit our party and, moreover, the heavy membership within the party will play a positive role here,&quot; Shastri added.</p>

<p>While a Congress leader, Raju Waghmare said, &quot;It is a very good sign for the Congress and there are two reasons behind it. Some BJP voters are very nervous and they are disappointed by their party&#39;s performance. On the other hand, whatever the turnout is right now, the public wants a change and that change is possible with Congress&quot;.</p>

<p>&quot;This 68 per cent is a very good sign for our party and we will take this first phase seriously,&quot; the Maharashtra leader added.</p>

<p>Sixty-eight percent voters came out to vote in the first phase of Gujarat Assembly elections, informed the Election Commission, on Saturday.</p>

<p>The voting for 89 assembly constituencies in Saurashtra and South Gujarat region, began at 8:00 am and ended in the evening on Saturday.</p>

<p>Prominent candidates in the fray include Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani of BJP, who is contesting from Rajkot (West), along with Congress&#39; Shaktisinh Gohil and Paresh Dhanani.</p>

<p>The second phase will be held on December 14 for the remaining 93 assembly constituencies. Counting of votes and the results will be announced on December 18.&nbsp;</p>


With 68 per cent voter turnout in the first phase of Gujarat assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Sunday expressed confidence over its victory, and said, now, Congress should not harbour any illusion about the result

With 68 per cent voter turnout in the first phase of Gujarat assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Sunday expressed confidence over its victory, and said, now, Congress should not harbour any illusion about the result. Talking to ANI, BJP leader Shahnawaz Hussain said, "The way in which first phase of Gujarat Assembly elections has concluded, it seems the public has decided to make Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP win by securing a three-fourths majority. Gujarat has cleared the misgivings of Congress through its turnout in the first phase." He said people of the state did not accept the kind of language used against the Prime Minister. "The voting has been in favour of the BJP and there is an excitement among the people," Hussain further said. Another BJP leader, Bizay Sonkar Shastri said the votes in the first phase were clearly in party's victory. "The first phase voting will benefit our party and, moreover, the heavy membership within the party will play a positive role here," Shastri added. While a Congress leader, Raju Waghmare said, "It is a very good sign for the Congress and there are two reasons behind it. Some BJP voters are very nervous and they are disappointed by their party's performance. On the other hand, whatever the turnout is right now, the public wants a change and that change is possible with Congress". "This 68 per cent is a very good sign for our party and we will take this first phase seriously," the Maharashtra leader added. Sixty-eight percent voters came out to vote in the first phase of Gujarat Assembly elections, informed the Election Commission, on Saturday. The voting for 89 assembly constituencies in Saurashtra and South Gujarat region, began at 8:00 am and ended in the evening on Saturday. Prominent candidates in the fray include Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani of BJP, who is contesting from Rajkot (West), along with Congress' Shaktisinh Gohil and Paresh Dhanani. The second phase will be held on December 14 for the remaining 93 assembly constituencies. Counting of votes and the results will be announced on December 18.

Congress should not harbour any illusion about Gujarat poll result: BJP

<p>Hardik Patel&#39;s key aide and senior member of Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti Dinesh Bambhania has alleged that the quota agitation spearhead&#39;s support to the Congress party smacks of some kind of &quot;fixing&quot; between them.</p>

<p>Bambhania yesterday said he could not understand why Patel was supporting the Congress party, despite it not clarifying how it would give reservation to the Patidar community if voted to power.</p>

<p>&quot;In the poll manifesto, the Congress has not clarified how it would grant us reservation under OBC quota after coming to power in Gujarat. It shows that Congress actually never wanted to give us reservation. Yet, Hardik Patel is doing rallies in Congress&#39; favour,&quot; he told reporters here.</p>

<p>&quot;Though there is no clarity how we will get reservation under OBC quota, Hardik is mum about it. It seems like fixing to me. Our fight was not about bringing a party to power. At least I do not wish to be an agent of a party. Hardik should not politicise the agitation,&quot; he added.</p>

<p>Hardik is playing into the hands of Congress in the name of the Patidar movement, Bambhania said, adding, &quot;Hardik is using the agitation for political purposes and I am totally against it.&quot;</p>

<p>&nbsp;&quot;I urge all the Patidars to use their wisdom when they go for voting tomorrow,&quot; he said.</p>

<p>Bambhania&#39;s open rebellion against Patel came a day ahead of the first phase of polling in Saurashtra and south Gujarat.</p>

<p>Commenting on Patel&#39;s purported sex tapes, Bambhania indicated that only one CD can be morphed, not all.</p>

<p>&quot;Hardik is seen as an icon. Patidars are having very high hopes from him. One CD can be morphed, but, when so many CDs came out, it does not suit a man who is the leader of a community. I am deeply pained by the entire episode,&quot; he said.</p>

<p>Bambhania claimed he was still with Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) and said he was not joining the BJP.</p>

<p>&quot;Neither am I against Hardik, nor I am leaving PAAS. I am also not joining BJP. My only contention is that Hardik has failed to pressure the Congress to accept our demand as agreed earlier between both PAAS and Congress,&quot; he added.</p>


Bambhania yesterday said he could not understand why Patel was supporting the Congress party, despite it not clarifying how it would give reservation to the Patidar community if voted to power

Hardik Patel's key aide and senior member of Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti Dinesh Bambhania has alleged that the quota agitation spearhead's support to the Congress party smacks of some kind of "fixing" between them. Bambhania yesterday said he could not understand why Patel was supporting the Congress party, despite it not clarifying how it would give reservation to the Patidar community if voted to power. "In the poll manifesto, the Congress has not clarified how it would grant us reservation under OBC quota after coming to power in Gujarat. It shows that Congress actually never wanted to give us reservation. Yet, Hardik Patel is doing rallies in Congress' favour," he told reporters here. "Though there is no clarity how we will get reservation under OBC quota, Hardik is mum about it. It seems like fixing to me. Our fight was not about bringing a party to power. At least I do not wish to be an agent of a party. Hardik should not politicise the agitation," he added. Hardik is playing into the hands of Congress in the name of the Patidar movement, Bambhania said, adding, "Hardik is using the agitation for political purposes and I am totally against it." "I urge all the Patidars to use their wisdom when they go for voting tomorrow," he said. Bambhania's open rebellion against Patel came a day ahead of the first phase of polling in Saurashtra and south Gujarat. Commenting on Patel's purported sex tapes, Bambhania indicated that only one CD can be morphed, not all. "Hardik is seen as an icon. Patidars are having very high hopes from him. One CD can be morphed, but, when so many CDs came out, it does not suit a man who is the leader of a community. I am deeply pained by the entire episode," he said. Bambhania claimed he was still with Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) and said he was not joining the BJP. "Neither am I against Hardik, nor I am leaving PAAS. I am also not joining BJP. My only contention is that Hardik has failed to pressure the Congress to accept our demand as agreed earlier between both PAAS and Congress," he added.

PAAS leader claims 'fixing' between Hardik Patel, Congress

<p>The BJP come under renewed attack on Friday when the opposition took aim at the saffron party for not releasing party&#39;s manifesto ahead of the Assembly polls in Gujarat.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi on Thursday tweeted accused&nbsp;the &#39;BJP of disrespecting the&nbsp;people of Gujarat by not releasing the manifesto.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&#39;&#39;The BJP has shown unbelievable disrespect towards the people of Gujarat. The campaign is over and STILL no mention of a manifesto for the people, no vision and no ideas presented for Gujarat&rsquo;s future,&#39;&#39; tweeted Rahul Gandhi.&nbsp;</p>

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<p dir="ltr" lang="hi">CD ????? ?? ????? ??? ????? ????? ???? ????? ??? ??,?? ?????? ????????????</p>
&mdash; Hardik Patel (@HardikPatel_) <a href="https://twitter.com/HardikPatel_/status/938994900795666432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<p>&nbsp;Meanwhile Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) leader Hardik Patel today tweeted BJP is busy making CDs.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&#39;&#39;The BJP is busy making CDs and in the process forgot to release the party manifesto,&#39;&#39; Patel tweeted in Hindi.</p>

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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">The BJP has shown unbelievable disrespect towards the people of Gujarat. Campaign is over and STILL no mention of a manifesto for the people, no vision and no ideas presented for Gujarat&rsquo;s future. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BJPDisrespectsGujarat?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BJPDisrespectsGujarat</a></p>
&mdash; Office of RG (@OfficeOfRG) <a href="https://twitter.com/OfficeOfRG/status/938806342411739137?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 7, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<p>Congress party released its manifesto on December 4 and&nbsp;promised&nbsp;quota for Patidars besides farm debt waiver.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p>The election will be held in two phases on December 9 and 14.</p>


Congress vice-president tweeted yesterday that the BJP has shown unbelievable disrespect towards the people of Gujarat. Campaign is over and still no mention of a manifesto

The BJP come under renewed attack on Friday when the opposition took aim at the saffron party for not releasing party's manifesto ahead of the Assembly polls in Gujarat. Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi on Thursday tweeted accused the 'BJP of disrespecting the people of Gujarat by not releasing the manifesto. ''The BJP has shown unbelievable disrespect towards the people of Gujarat. The campaign is over and STILL no mention of a manifesto for the people, no vision and no ideas presented for Gujarat’s future,'' tweeted Rahul Gandhi. CD ????? ?? ????? ??? ????? ????? ???? ????? ??? ??,?? ?????? ???????????? — Hardik Patel (@HardikPatel_) December 8, 2017 × Meanwhile Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) leader Hardik Patel today tweeted BJP is busy making CDs. ''The BJP is busy making CDs and in the process forgot to release the party manifesto,'' Patel tweeted in Hindi. The BJP has shown unbelievable disrespect towards the people of Gujarat. Campaign is over and STILL no mention of a manifesto for the people, no vision and no ideas presented for Gujarat’s future. #BJPDisrespectsGujarat — Office of RG (@OfficeOfRG) December 7, 2017 × Congress party released its manifesto on December 4 and promised quota for Patidars besides farm debt waiver. The election will be held in two phases on December 9 and 14.

BJP is busy making CDs, forgot to release party's manifesto: Hardik Patel

<p>For a democracy to function, elections are crucial. The Indian state of Gujarat is going to the polls&nbsp;tomorrow. This will be a bitterly contested run to state power as it is the home ground of India&#39;s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. After their UP debacle, the Congress is pumped up too with carefully chosen electoral partners. They have tied up with disgruntled Patidar community leader Hardik Patel as well as have strong support from the Dalit and the Muslim community.</p>

<p>While the whole country debates the shifting dynamics of Gujarati politics, keeping itself engrossed with nitty-gritty details over seats, leaders, areas of influence, we are neglecting to sift through the political discourse that is developing around this state election.</p>

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<h5>What the leaders say in the election campaigns and what the voters want to listen may be very different from the election manifesto that the political parties release amidst much fanfare.</h5>
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<p>Beyond seats and leaders, voters and voting pattern an election can give us foray into the mind of the nation. What the leaders say in the election campaigns and what the voters want to listen may be very different from the election manifesto that the political parties release amidst much fanfare. While the manifestoes may register all the politically correct and so-called progressive ideas and plans directed at nation-building, what the leaders go out to say in political rallies is completely different.</p>

<p>This year&#39;s Gujarat state election best illustrates the point. Months before the Gujarat election dates were announced, the political leaders, as well as, the media houses were referring to Gujarat development model as if it will be the most important criterion in deciding the fate of this election. The newsrooms were abuzz with words such as infrastructure, foreign direct investment, employment generation and other economic jargons. We were splitting hair as to between Kerala and Gujarat&#39;s development path what we should choose and what we let go.</p>

<p>GST figured too. Just like demonetisation, the GST kept Indians busy. We discussed Moody ratings, ease of doing business, doing away with double taxation. All discussions did not revolve around positives though, we were somewhat clueless too about rates of GST and what differences it made to past and current prices.</p>

<p>But such non-religious debates centering around policy measures couldn&#39;t keep either our leaders or voters enticed for long. Their wish was fulfilled when Rahul Gandhi referred to GST as &#39;Gabbar Singh Tax&#39;. I am sure Rahul was referring to what he thought the arbitrary and coercive nature of GST, but the public debate immediately shifted towards name calling. With each passing round, the political leaders of opposing parties tried to prove their&nbsp;better sense of humour over the other. All this tamasha happened at the expense of serious political debate of course.</p>

<p>One would expect, particularly learning from better days of Indian democracy and that of the US, that political leaders would enter into a verbal duel with each other over health, education, municipal administration, infrastructure building and the hazards of pollution. Matters that affect our lives, our children&#39;s lives. But no, we prefer, rather rejoice, to go hoarse over Ram Mandir, Babur, Aurangzeb, Gujarati asmita, calling each other &#39;<em>neech</em>&#39;, demand for reservation and use it to rouse populist sentiment.</p>

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<h5>Instead of such rabble-rousing, why can&#39;t we enter into a constructive political discourse where we really try to figure out how we can build a neat and clean city like Surat or Rajkot.</h5>
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<p>Instead of such rabble-rousing, why can&#39;t we enter into a constructive political discourse where we really try to figure out how we can build a neat and clean city like Surat or Rajkot. Such cities were in a deplorable mess not that many years ago. But with proper drainage and sewage system, the cities have completely undergone a makeover. Why can&#39;t we make all Indian cities like that? I am sure that there would be the question of resource constraint. Then, let&#39;s talk about resources and how we can mobilise it and put it to proper use.</p>

<p>I am equally surprised how pollution never figures in our electoral campaign but Ram Mandir does? The famous London smog almost killed Prime Minister Churchill&#39;s career but our leaders are pretty well surviving as we bicker over Babri Masjid and Ram Mandir. Pray, tell me what is more crucial to our survival: clean air or a place to pray?</p>

<p>A country gets a political system it deserves. Until and unless we evolve ourselves into a conscious democracy, we don&#39;t start asking tough questions and demand better living conditions for our children, we are a doomed nation.</p>

<p>India aspires to be a modern superpower but our political culture and rhetoric smack of primitive feudal ideas.</p>

<p><em>(Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity).</em></p>


India aspires to be a modern superpower but our political culture and rhetoric smack of primitive feudal ideas

For a democracy to function, elections are crucial. The Indian state of Gujarat is going to the polls tomorrow. This will be a bitterly contested run to state power as it is the home ground of India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi. After their UP debacle, the Congress is pumped up too with carefully chosen electoral partners. They have tied up with disgruntled Patidar community leader Hardik Patel as well as have strong support from the Dalit and the Muslim community. While the whole country debates the shifting dynamics of Gujarati politics, keeping itself engrossed with nitty-gritty details over seats, leaders, areas of influence, we are neglecting to sift through the political discourse that is developing around this state election. What the leaders say in the election campaigns and what the voters want to listen may be very different from the election manifesto that the political parties release amidst much fanfare. × Beyond seats and leaders, voters and voting pattern an election can give us foray into the mind of the nation. What the leaders say in the election campaigns and what the voters want to listen may be very different from the election manifesto that the political parties release amidst much fanfare. While the manifestoes may register all the politically correct and so-called progressive ideas and plans directed at nation-building, what the leaders go out to say in political rallies is completely different. This year's Gujarat state election best illustrates the point. Months before the Gujarat election dates were announced, the political leaders, as well as, the media houses were referring to Gujarat development model as if it will be the most important criterion in deciding the fate of this election. The newsrooms were abuzz with words such as infrastructure, foreign direct investment, employment generation and other economic jargons. We were splitting hair as to between Kerala and Gujarat's development path what we should choose and what we let go. GST figured too. Just like demonetisation, the GST kept Indians busy. We discussed Moody ratings, ease of doing business, doing away with double taxation. All discussions did not revolve around positives though, we were somewhat clueless too about rates of GST and what differences it made to past and current prices. But such non-religious debates centering around policy measures couldn't keep either our leaders or voters enticed for long. Their wish was fulfilled when Rahul Gandhi referred to GST as 'Gabbar Singh Tax'. I am sure Rahul was referring to what he thought the arbitrary and coercive nature of GST, but the public debate immediately shifted towards name calling. With each passing round, the political leaders of opposing parties tried to prove their better sense of humour over the other. All this tamasha happened at the expense of serious political debate of course. One would expect, particularly learning from better days of Indian democracy and that of the US, that political leaders would enter into a verbal duel with each other over health, education, municipal administration, infrastructure building and the hazards of pollution. Matters that affect our lives, our children's lives. But no, we prefer, rather rejoice, to go hoarse over Ram Mandir, Babur, Aurangzeb, Gujarati asmita, calling each other 'neech', demand for reservation and use it to rouse populist sentiment. Instead of such rabble-rousing, why can't we enter into a constructive political discourse where we really try to figure out how we can build a neat and clean city like Surat or Rajkot. × Instead of such rabble-rousing, why can't we enter into a constructive political discourse where we really try to figure out how we can build a neat and clean city like Surat or Rajkot. Such cities were in a deplorable mess not that many years ago. But with proper drainage and sewage system, the cities have completely undergone a makeover. Why can't we make all Indian cities like that? I am sure that there would be the question of resource constraint. Then, let's talk about resources and how we can mobilise it and put it to proper use. I am equally surprised how pollution never figures in our electoral campaign but Ram Mandir does? The famous London smog almost killed Prime Minister Churchill's career but our leaders are pretty well surviving as we bicker over Babri Masjid and Ram Mandir. Pray, tell me what is more crucial to our survival: clean air or a place to pray? A country gets a political system it deserves. Until and unless we evolve ourselves into a conscious democracy, we don't start asking tough questions and demand better living conditions for our children, we are a doomed nation. India aspires to be a modern superpower but our political culture and rhetoric smack of primitive feudal ideas. (Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity).

Opinion: Why don't we speak of progressive ideas in election campaigns

<p>From a strictly electoral perspective, the Scheduled Castes in Gujarat are not a very important factor. They constitute just seven per cent of the State&rsquo;s population. And since they are thinly spread across the State, their role in deciding the outcome of an election in the 182 Assembly seats is limited. Yet, their support is essential for both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress for a different reason. The BJP&rsquo;s &#39;Sab ka saath, sab ka vikas&#39; slogan would sound ineffectual if the Scheduled Castes failed to vote for the party. The Congress&rsquo;s &lsquo;pro-poor&rsquo; image would take a beating if it could not win over this most marginalised section of society.</p>

<p>On the other hand, the Scheduled Tribes form 15 per cent of the State&rsquo;s population. This significant presence alongside the fact that they are largely concentrated in eastern Gujarat, gives them political leverage in, at least, 25 Assembly constituencies in the general category. Besides, they are also important for the &lsquo;inclusive development&rsquo;, a message the two main political rivals in the State have adopted to sound credible.</p>

<p>Taken together, the 22 per cent they represent is a formidable number. Add to it the number of reserved seats they share between themselves &mdash; 40 in all, with 13 Assembly constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes and 27 for Scheduled Tribes &mdash; and it is evident that this taken together is crucial for any political party&rsquo;s prospects in the coming State election.</p>

<p>If this is true, there is another reality. It is that the two groups do not have a common leader who can optimally exploit the strength for political empowerment. Nor do the SC and ST groups have common concerns, other than the abstract desire to lead a life that has more of dignity and social justice. Political observers, and definitely political strategists, realise that sharply delineated issues and not generalities work in electoral campaigns.</p>

<p>The Scheduled Castes have, at least ostensibly, found a messiah in Jignesh Mevani. He came into the limelight after the Una incident in 2016, when a group of cow vigilantes professing Right-wing credentials attacked members of the &lsquo;low caste&rsquo; community. That turned him firmly against the BJP. Earlier, Mevani had led a number of protests demanding land rights for the Scheduled Castes, but in those days he had no political leaning &mdash; or at least he did not overtly display them. He positioned himself as a champion of the rights of the underprivileged and claimed to have no political ambition. But last month he filed his nomination from the Vadnagar reserved seat. The Congress has not fielded any candidate from the constituency though it has a sitting MLA from there, and has decided to back Mevani. The Scheduled Castes leader has also decided to support the Congress in its battle against the BJP.</p>

<p>While he has taken the political plunge, it may not be smooth sailing for him. Upset that a seat which their party has held has been given to a non-Congressman, many grassroots workers of the Congress are reportedly preparing to put a spanner in the works. The BJP is working overtime to exploit the situation to its benefit. In any case, his political relevance is only proportional to the percentage of Scheduled Castes population in the State, and the fact that he is involved in a contest of his own will curtail his ability to canvas for the Congress across the State.</p>

<p>There is a general perception that the Scheduled Castes in Gujarat have traditionally favoured the Congress. This is not borne out by the electoral result of the 2012 Assembly election. The BJP had then won in 10 of the 13 reserved constituencies. It remains to be seen whether, in the new context, the party retains the sway.</p>

<p>The Congress had performed better with the Scheduled Tribes. Of the 27 seats reserved for this group in 2012, the party had triumphed in 16. The BJP had secured 10 seats while one went to the Janata Dal (United) candidate, Chotubhai Vasava. In the 2007 Assembly election, there were 26 seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes, of which the Congress had won 16 and the BJP, nine; one seat had then too gone to the Janata Dal (United). The BJP&rsquo;s situation was worse in the 1998 election, when it could win only eight of the 26 seats.</p>

<p>The Bhil community is the single largest constituent of the Scheduled Tribes, forming an overwhelming 45 per cent. The other important sub-group is the Bhopa Rabari whose members are largely concentrated in north Gujarat. It is no surprise that the two national parties are putting everything they have to get the approval of these two communities especially and the Scheduled Tribes in general.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Congress is banking on the &lsquo;failure&rsquo; of successive BJP regimes in the State to effectively implement the Forest Rights Act of 2006, which was supposed to provide title deeds of land claimed by the tribals under this law. Although nearly 70 per cent of disputed claims forwarded under the Act have been settled in the State, Gujarat still lags behind other States in the matter. According to a Union Ministry of Tribal Affairs data, the Gujarat Government had managed to distribute land to just 38 per cent of the claimants. This is the record, the Congress has claimed, of the BJP regime and reflects the latter&rsquo;s neglect of tribal rights.</p>

<p>But the BJP is confident that the surge of tribal support it has seen since 1998 will continue. It has been pulling out all stops to win over the Scheduled Tribes. Only recently, a tribal museum opened in Surat with a grant of one crore rupees from the University Grants Commission. While speaking at a public meeting recently in Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the contribution of tribal leaders in the country&rsquo;s freedom movement. He laid the foundation stone for a tribal museum close to the Sardar Sarovar dam in Narmada district, and promised more such museums across the country.</p>

<p>The BJP&rsquo;s push for tribal support has also to do with the Hardik Patel factor. Realising that some of the Patidar votes may migrate from its camp to the Congress, now supported by Patidar leader Hardik Patel, the BJP is keen to make up for the deficit through enhanced votes from the Scheduled Tribes. It has placed hopes in the work that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has been doing in the tribal belt of the State over the years. However, the Congress is in no mood to give up its advantage. If it can hold on to its support base among the Scheduled Tribes and Hardik Patel manages to deliver on his promise, the BJP could be at some disadvantage.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><em>(Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity).</em></p>


Realising that some of the Patidar votes may migrate from its camp to the Congress, now supported by Patidar leader Hardik Patel, the BJP is keen to make up for the deficit through enhanced votes from the Scheduled Tribes.

From a strictly electoral perspective, the Scheduled Castes in Gujarat are not a very important factor. They constitute just seven per cent of the State’s population. And since they are thinly spread across the State, their role in deciding the outcome of an election in the 182 Assembly seats is limited. Yet, their support is essential for both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress for a different reason. The BJP’s 'Sab ka saath, sab ka vikas' slogan would sound ineffectual if the Scheduled Castes failed to vote for the party. The Congress’s ‘pro-poor’ image would take a beating if it could not win over this most marginalised section of society. On the other hand, the Scheduled Tribes form 15 per cent of the State’s population. This significant presence alongside the fact that they are largely concentrated in eastern Gujarat, gives them political leverage in, at least, 25 Assembly constituencies in the general category. Besides, they are also important for the ‘inclusive development’, a message the two main political rivals in the State have adopted to sound credible. Taken together, the 22 per cent they represent is a formidable number. Add to it the number of reserved seats they share between themselves — 40 in all, with 13 Assembly constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes and 27 for Scheduled Tribes — and it is evident that this taken together is crucial for any political party’s prospects in the coming State election. If this is true, there is another reality. It is that the two groups do not have a common leader who can optimally exploit the strength for political empowerment. Nor do the SC and ST groups have common concerns, other than the abstract desire to lead a life that has more of dignity and social justice. Political observers, and definitely political strategists, realise that sharply delineated issues and not generalities work in electoral campaigns. The Scheduled Castes have, at least ostensibly, found a messiah in Jignesh Mevani. He came into the limelight after the Una incident in 2016, when a group of cow vigilantes professing Right-wing credentials attacked members of the ‘low caste’ community. That turned him firmly against the BJP. Earlier, Mevani had led a number of protests demanding land rights for the Scheduled Castes, but in those days he had no political leaning — or at least he did not overtly display them. He positioned himself as a champion of the rights of the underprivileged and claimed to have no political ambition. But last month he filed his nomination from the Vadnagar reserved seat. The Congress has not fielded any candidate from the constituency though it has a sitting MLA from there, and has decided to back Mevani. The Scheduled Castes leader has also decided to support the Congress in its battle against the BJP. While he has taken the political plunge, it may not be smooth sailing for him. Upset that a seat which their party has held has been given to a non-Congressman, many grassroots workers of the Congress are reportedly preparing to put a spanner in the works. The BJP is working overtime to exploit the situation to its benefit. In any case, his political relevance is only proportional to the percentage of Scheduled Castes population in the State, and the fact that he is involved in a contest of his own will curtail his ability to canvas for the Congress across the State. There is a general perception that the Scheduled Castes in Gujarat have traditionally favoured the Congress. This is not borne out by the electoral result of the 2012 Assembly election. The BJP had then won in 10 of the 13 reserved constituencies. It remains to be seen whether, in the new context, the party retains the sway. The Congress had performed better with the Scheduled Tribes. Of the 27 seats reserved for this group in 2012, the party had triumphed in 16. The BJP had secured 10 seats while one went to the Janata Dal (United) candidate, Chotubhai Vasava. In the 2007 Assembly election, there were 26 seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes, of which the Congress had won 16 and the BJP, nine; one seat had then too gone to the Janata Dal (United). The BJP’s situation was worse in the 1998 election, when it could win only eight of the 26 seats. The Bhil community is the single largest constituent of the Scheduled Tribes, forming an overwhelming 45 per cent. The other important sub-group is the Bhopa Rabari whose members are largely concentrated in north Gujarat. It is no surprise that the two national parties are putting everything they have to get the approval of these two communities especially and the Scheduled Tribes in general. The Congress is banking on the ‘failure’ of successive BJP regimes in the State to effectively implement the Forest Rights Act of 2006, which was supposed to provide title deeds of land claimed by the tribals under this law. Although nearly 70 per cent of disputed claims forwarded under the Act have been settled in the State, Gujarat still lags behind other States in the matter. According to a Union Ministry of Tribal Affairs data, the Gujarat Government had managed to distribute land to just 38 per cent of the claimants. This is the record, the Congress has claimed, of the BJP regime and reflects the latter’s neglect of tribal rights. But the BJP is confident that the surge of tribal support it has seen since 1998 will continue. It has been pulling out all stops to win over the Scheduled Tribes. Only recently, a tribal museum opened in Surat with a grant of one crore rupees from the University Grants Commission. While speaking at a public meeting recently in Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the contribution of tribal leaders in the country’s freedom movement. He laid the foundation stone for a tribal museum close to the Sardar Sarovar dam in Narmada district, and promised more such museums across the country. The BJP’s push for tribal support has also to do with the Hardik Patel factor. Realising that some of the Patidar votes may migrate from its camp to the Congress, now supported by Patidar leader Hardik Patel, the BJP is keen to make up for the deficit through enhanced votes from the Scheduled Tribes. It has placed hopes in the work that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has been doing in the tribal belt of the State over the years. However, the Congress is in no mood to give up its advantage. If it can hold on to its support base among the Scheduled Tribes and Hardik Patel manages to deliver on his promise, the BJP could be at some disadvantage. (Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity).

Opinion: BJP trying to win over tribal communities in Gujarat. Why?

<p>&ldquo;The election is a people of Gujarat versus BJP battle and it should be the victory of the people, not defeat of anyone,&rdquo; Hardik Patel told the gathering, mainly consisting of young Patidar members, who are rallying behind the 24-year-old leader. Patel has been spearheading the agitation for quota in jobs and education for the community in Gujarat.</p>

<p>The Patidar leader was addressing a massive rally in Surat on Sunday, where more than 50,000 people turned up for his roadshow. Patel conducted the Surat roadshow after his show of strength in Chief Minister Vijay Rupani&rsquo;s Assembly constituency of Rajkot West.</p>

<p>&ldquo;We are all here to fight our battle against those who have killed 14 members of the Patidar community during the agitation in 2015. They [BJP and the government] made every effort to finish us but we are all united and fighting,&rdquo; Patel said amid the chorus of Jay Sardar Jay Patidar chants by the crowd.</p>

<p>Patel exhorted members of his community to vote out the BJP in the Assembly polls and bring in a government which would provide quota, jobs and work for the farmers and the poor.</p>

<p>Patel&rsquo;s 10-km roadshow from Katargam to Yogi Chawk in the diamond city proved a bigger crowd-puller than the roadshow of Chief Minister Vijay Rupani, who was campaigning for the BJP candidate from Hajira, and attracted a larger crowd than Prime Minister Narendra Modi&rsquo;s public rally in Bharuch, around 75 km from Surat.</p>

<p>Patel has been campaigning across the State but mostly in Patidar-dominated pockets to create an anti-BJP atmosphere before the voting. Earlier, he had told presspersons that the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) had accepted the quota formula prepared by the Congress, which intends to give quota to the Patidars after it is voted to power.</p>


The Patidar agitation leader Patel was addressing a massive rally in Surat, where more than 50,000 people turned up for his roadshow.

“The election is a people of Gujarat versus BJP battle and it should be the victory of the people, not defeat of anyone,” Hardik Patel told the gathering, mainly consisting of young Patidar members, who are rallying behind the 24-year-old leader. Patel has been spearheading the agitation for quota in jobs and education for the community in Gujarat. The Patidar leader was addressing a massive rally in Surat on Sunday, where more than 50,000 people turned up for his roadshow. Patel conducted the Surat roadshow after his show of strength in Chief Minister Vijay Rupani’s Assembly constituency of Rajkot West. “We are all here to fight our battle against those who have killed 14 members of the Patidar community during the agitation in 2015. They [BJP and the government] made every effort to finish us but we are all united and fighting,” Patel said amid the chorus of Jay Sardar Jay Patidar chants by the crowd. Patel exhorted members of his community to vote out the BJP in the Assembly polls and bring in a government which would provide quota, jobs and work for the farmers and the poor. Patel’s 10-km roadshow from Katargam to Yogi Chawk in the diamond city proved a bigger crowd-puller than the roadshow of Chief Minister Vijay Rupani, who was campaigning for the BJP candidate from Hajira, and attracted a larger crowd than Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s public rally in Bharuch, around 75 km from Surat. Patel has been campaigning across the State but mostly in Patidar-dominated pockets to create an anti-BJP atmosphere before the voting. Earlier, he had told presspersons that the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) had accepted the quota formula prepared by the Congress, which intends to give quota to the Patidars after it is voted to power.

Hardik Patel's rally draws huge crowd in Surat

<p>Dalit leader Jignesh Mewani said Monday that he would contest the upcoming Gujarat elections as an independent candidate from Banaskantha&#39;s Vadgam&nbsp;district. He tweeted :&nbsp;&lsquo;Friends, I&rsquo;m contesting from Vadgam-11 seat of Banaskantha district of Gujarat as an independent candidate. We shall fight, we shall win.&rsquo;</p>

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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Friends, I m contesting from Vadgam-11 seat of Banaskantha district of Gujarat as an independent candidate. We shall fight, we shall win.</p>
&mdash; Jignesh Mevani (@jigneshmevani80) <a href="https://twitter.com/jigneshmevani80/status/934985861464072197?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 27, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<p>In a Facebook post, the 35-year-old requested the Congress and other opposition parties not to field a candidate from Vadgam, so that he can make it a direct contest with the ruling BJP.&nbsp;&ldquo;We need to expose the 22-year-old misrule of the BJP and hence should be a direct&nbsp;fight between me and the BJP,&rdquo; he wrote.</p>

<p>The Dalit leader maintained that he had no plans to join any political party.</p>

<p>The Gujarat Congress has asked its sitting MLA Manibhai Vaghela to not contest from Vadgam&nbsp;&ldquo;as a part of an agreement&rdquo; with Mevani. &ldquo;The party&nbsp;has asked me not to contest from the Vadgam seat this time. Though Mevani will contest the polls as an Independent, he will have Congress&rsquo; support. Thus, there won&rsquo;t be any Congress candidate on this seat,&rdquo; Vaghela told PTI.</p>

<p>The BJP on Friday had named Vijaybhai Chakravarti as its candidate from Vadgam.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Amongst his early supporters, Jignesh can count Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal who&nbsp;was quick to wish him on Twitter.&nbsp;</p>

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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Best wishes Jignesh <a href="https://t.co/y8jnU5HfUH">https://t.co/y8jnU5HfUH</a></p>
&mdash; Arvind Kejriwal (@ArvindKejriwal) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArvindKejriwal/status/934996768718127104?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 27, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<p>Mewani made the announcement hours after the Congress party released its third list of 76 candidates. &nbsp;</p>

<p>Earlier this month, Jignesh Mevani had a meeting with Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi during the latter&rsquo;s visit to south Gujarat. After the meeting, Mevani had said that the opposition party gave him an assurance that more than 90 per cent of his demands will be incorporated in its manifesto.</p>

<p>Stopping short of declaring an open support to the Congress after the meeting, Mevani had said that he would ask his community members to defeat BJP in the Gujarat polls.</p>

<p>Jignesh Mevani, who has been critical of the ruling BJP in the state and shot to fame after the Una Dalit flogging incident last year, had discussed 17 demands of his community in the meeting with Rahul Gandhi.</p>

<p>Of the three young caste leaders, OBC leader Alpesh Thakor has already joined the Congress, while Patidar community leader Hardik Patel recently announced his decision to back the opposition party after accepting its proposed reservation formula.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.wionews.com/south-asia/opinion-alpesh-thakores-main-drawback-is-lack-of-credibility-25233" target="_blank">Opinion: Alpesh Thakore&#39;s main drawback is lack of credibility</a></p>

<p>He said he would not join the party, but that all Dalit organisations and activists would work to defeat the BJP. &nbsp;</p>

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The announcement came hours after the Congress party released its third list of 76 candidates for the second phase of the Gujarat Assembly election

Dalit leader Jignesh Mewani said Monday that he would contest the upcoming Gujarat elections as an independent candidate from Banaskantha's Vadgam district. He tweeted : ‘Friends, I’m contesting from Vadgam-11 seat of Banaskantha district of Gujarat as an independent candidate. We shall fight, we shall win.’ Friends, I m contesting from Vadgam-11 seat of Banaskantha district of Gujarat as an independent candidate. We shall fight, we shall win. — Jignesh Mevani (@jigneshmevani80) November 27, 2017 × In a Facebook post, the 35-year-old requested the Congress and other opposition parties not to field a candidate from Vadgam, so that he can make it a direct contest with the ruling BJP. “We need to expose the 22-year-old misrule of the BJP and hence should be a direct fight between me and the BJP,” he wrote. The Dalit leader maintained that he had no plans to join any political party. The Gujarat Congress has asked its sitting MLA Manibhai Vaghela to not contest from Vadgam “as a part of an agreement” with Mevani. “The party has asked me not to contest from the Vadgam seat this time. Though Mevani will contest the polls as an Independent, he will have Congress’ support. Thus, there won’t be any Congress candidate on this seat,” Vaghela told PTI. The BJP on Friday had named Vijaybhai Chakravarti as its candidate from Vadgam. Amongst his early supporters, Jignesh can count Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal who was quick to wish him on Twitter. Best wishes Jignesh https://t.co/y8jnU5HfUH — Arvind Kejriwal (@ArvindKejriwal) November 27, 2017 × Mewani made the announcement hours after the Congress party released its third list of 76 candidates. Earlier this month, Jignesh Mevani had a meeting with Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi during the latter’s visit to south Gujarat. After the meeting, Mevani had said that the opposition party gave him an assurance that more than 90 per cent of his demands will be incorporated in its manifesto. Stopping short of declaring an open support to the Congress after the meeting, Mevani had said that he would ask his community members to defeat BJP in the Gujarat polls. Jignesh Mevani, who has been critical of the ruling BJP in the state and shot to fame after the Una Dalit flogging incident last year, had discussed 17 demands of his community in the meeting with Rahul Gandhi. Of the three young caste leaders, OBC leader Alpesh Thakor has already joined the Congress, while Patidar community leader Hardik Patel recently announced his decision to back the opposition party after accepting its proposed reservation formula. Opinion: Alpesh Thakore's main drawback is lack of credibility He said he would not join the party, but that all Dalit organisations and activists would work to defeat the BJP. Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor (ANI) ×

Gujarat elections: Jignesh Mewani to contest as independent from Vadgam

<p>An Ahmedabad-based journalist quipped that the Congress had taken to HAJ this Assembly election in Gujarat. His reference was to the Hardik (Patel)-Alpesh (Thakore)-Jignesh (Mevani) trio which has cast its lot with the party and on whose traction the Congress is seeking to return to power after more than two decades in the State.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Hardik and Jignesh have their own reasons for opposing the Bharatiya Janata Party. The Patidar leader wants reservations for his community which the BJP is unwilling to commit to. He is also upset with the state action against the pro-quota demonstrations over the last couple of years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Jignesh is a Scheduled Castes leader and is fuming over the Una incident in which a cow vigilante group had publicly flogged members of the caste in July last year, with the State authorities allegedly doing little to punish the culprits and certain members of the Union Government terming the matter as a &ldquo;small incident&rdquo;.</p>

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<h5>There is no indication that the other intermediate castes which are part of the OBCs are necessarily backing Alpesh Thakore, though he claims to be the leader of the larger OBC formulation.</h5>
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<p>But why is Alpesh Thakore a member of this bandwagon? The community he represents is part of the Other Backward Class (OBC) which enjoys the reservation benefit. His grievance, therefore, is not in common with that of Hardik Patel&rsquo;s. There have been no serious reported cases of violence or discrimination against the OBCs in Gujarat during the BJP rule, and, thus, he has no cause to fret like Jignesh Mevani. It is this lack of a definable purpose that makes Alpesh the odd man out. And yet, he has had his share of glory under the sun when he was recently inducted into the Congress at a high-profile function in the presence of no less a figure than Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi.</p>

<p>The OBCs comprise around 40 per cent of the State&rsquo;s population and they are spread across Gujarat, which makes them all the more critical in terms of seats. It is generally believed that the OBCs can influence results in more than 70 of the Assembly 182 seats &mdash; higher than any other single group can. But the Thakore community is only one of the many OBCs. In itself, it cannot make any major difference to electoral results. There is also no indication that the other intermediate castes which are part of the OBCs are necessarily backing Alpesh Thakore, though he claims to be the leader of the larger OBC formulation.</p>

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<h5>My taxi driver in Ahmedabad, a Thakore, put it bluntly that he was both OBC and Kshatriya, depending on the situation!</h5>
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<p>Besides, there is a caste confusion which makes the situation more complex. The Thakore community sees itself as part of the larger Kshatriya grouping &mdash; something which the latter resents. Other members of the OBC also view this tactic as a Thakore ploy to have the best of both worlds. My taxi driver in Ahmedabad, a Thakore, put it bluntly that he was both OBC and Kshatriya, depending on the situation! The Thakores may not be as well off as the Patidars but they are also not so marginalised as to be seen as credible victims of State apathy.</p>

<p>The Thakore community has, generally, voted for the Congress in previous elections, and so Alpesh Thakore&rsquo;s decision to align with the party this time should not surprise anyone. This is the only explanation which is on offer, but it does not still explain what Alpesh has against the BJP or what the issues are which he plans to raise before the voters in favour of the Congress or against the BJP. Up until now, he has been merely harping on generalities: Voters want a change after two decades of BJP rule; the ruling party has ignored the marginalised; the Congress has traditionally been a well-wisher of the weaker sections of society, etc.</p>

<p>Alpesh Thakore faces another problem, which is personal. He is seen as a rank opportunist, and even his supporters this columnist spoke to in Mehsana, and a few who hailed from Rajkot, admit that the youth leader had been less than transparent in his political stance. Months before he joined the Congress, Alpesh had reportedly confabulated with senior BJP leaders, including Amit Shah. The talks were to work out a deal for providing Assembly tickets to OBC &mdash; and especially Thakore community &mdash; leaders.&nbsp;</p>

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<h5>The failure to strike an arrangement with the BJP led Alpesh Thakore to the Congress, which was all too happy to snap him up.</h5>
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<p>Nothing came out of Alpesh&#39;s discussion with the BJP, probably for two reasons. The first is that Alpesh Thakore may have demanded more than what the party could offer to his outfit, the OBC, SC and ST (OSS) Ekta Manch. The second is that the BJP believed its own pro-OBC credentials were strong enough &mdash; Prime Minister Narendra Modi belongs to the OBC &mdash; and that it need not have to give in to the demands of a newcomer. The failure to strike an arrangement with the BJP led Alpesh Thakore to the Congress, which was all too happy to snap him up.</p>

<p>People also snigger than Alpesh Thakore is a BJP creation who was programmed to blunt the Hardik Patel factor but has now turned hostile. There may be an element of truth in this. But this raises another question. With the Patidars and the OBCs to which the Thakores belong, working at cross-purposes at the grassroots level for years, how will the convergence of votes between them happen? Alpesh Thakore rose to prominence alongside Hardik Patel when he opposed the Patidar agitation for reservations, but along the way he suddenly got himself added to the camp which housed the Patidar leader. The non-Thakore communities are not amused.</p>

<p>Alpesh Thakore&rsquo;s credibility (or lack of it, according to his detractors) is what will determine the success of his alignment with the Congress. Indeed, the demonstration of credibility is his strongest challenge. Until months ago, he had claimed to be equidistant from both the Congress and the BJP, and fully committed to the cause of OBC welfare. He wanted a Ram temple in Gujarat and a ban on cow slaughter. He blamed both the Congress and the BJP for a host of social problems, and wanted the prohibition policy to be more stringently implemented in Gujarat.</p>

<p>But that is all in the past, and Alpesh Thakore is now one of the star campaigners of the Congress in the State. It is possible that some of his star attraction may rub off on a few of the other OBCs, besides his own community. Will it be good enough for the Congress, remains to be seen? Meanwhile, the OBC leader can continue with his vague promises on equally vague issues. As the Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev said, &ldquo;Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build bridges even when there are no rivers.&rdquo;</p>

<p><em>(Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity)</em></p>


Alpesh wanted a Ram temple in Gujarat and a ban on cow slaughter. He blamed both the Congress and the BJP for a host of social problems, and wanted the prohibition policy to be more stringently implemented in Gujarat.

An Ahmedabad-based journalist quipped that the Congress had taken to HAJ this Assembly election in Gujarat. His reference was to the Hardik (Patel)-Alpesh (Thakore)-Jignesh (Mevani) trio which has cast its lot with the party and on whose traction the Congress is seeking to return to power after more than two decades in the State. Hardik and Jignesh have their own reasons for opposing the Bharatiya Janata Party. The Patidar leader wants reservations for his community which the BJP is unwilling to commit to. He is also upset with the state action against the pro-quota demonstrations over the last couple of years. Jignesh is a Scheduled Castes leader and is fuming over the Una incident in which a cow vigilante group had publicly flogged members of the caste in July last year, with the State authorities allegedly doing little to punish the culprits and certain members of the Union Government terming the matter as a “small incident”. There is no indication that the other intermediate castes which are part of the OBCs are necessarily backing Alpesh Thakore, though he claims to be the leader of the larger OBC formulation. × But why is Alpesh Thakore a member of this bandwagon? The community he represents is part of the Other Backward Class (OBC) which enjoys the reservation benefit. His grievance, therefore, is not in common with that of Hardik Patel’s. There have been no serious reported cases of violence or discrimination against the OBCs in Gujarat during the BJP rule, and, thus, he has no cause to fret like Jignesh Mevani. It is this lack of a definable purpose that makes Alpesh the odd man out. And yet, he has had his share of glory under the sun when he was recently inducted into the Congress at a high-profile function in the presence of no less a figure than Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi. The OBCs comprise around 40 per cent of the State’s population and they are spread across Gujarat, which makes them all the more critical in terms of seats. It is generally believed that the OBCs can influence results in more than 70 of the Assembly 182 seats — higher than any other single group can. But the Thakore community is only one of the many OBCs. In itself, it cannot make any major difference to electoral results. There is also no indication that the other intermediate castes which are part of the OBCs are necessarily backing Alpesh Thakore, though he claims to be the leader of the larger OBC formulation. My taxi driver in Ahmedabad, a Thakore, put it bluntly that he was both OBC and Kshatriya, depending on the situation! × Besides, there is a caste confusion which makes the situation more complex. The Thakore community sees itself as part of the larger Kshatriya grouping — something which the latter resents. Other members of the OBC also view this tactic as a Thakore ploy to have the best of both worlds. My taxi driver in Ahmedabad, a Thakore, put it bluntly that he was both OBC and Kshatriya, depending on the situation! The Thakores may not be as well off as the Patidars but they are also not so marginalised as to be seen as credible victims of State apathy. The Thakore community has, generally, voted for the Congress in previous elections, and so Alpesh Thakore’s decision to align with the party this time should not surprise anyone. This is the only explanation which is on offer, but it does not still explain what Alpesh has against the BJP or what the issues are which he plans to raise before the voters in favour of the Congress or against the BJP. Up until now, he has been merely harping on generalities: Voters want a change after two decades of BJP rule; the ruling party has ignored the marginalised; the Congress has traditionally been a well-wisher of the weaker sections of society, etc. Alpesh Thakore faces another problem, which is personal. He is seen as a rank opportunist, and even his supporters this columnist spoke to in Mehsana, and a few who hailed from Rajkot, admit that the youth leader had been less than transparent in his political stance. Months before he joined the Congress, Alpesh had reportedly confabulated with senior BJP leaders, including Amit Shah. The talks were to work out a deal for providing Assembly tickets to OBC — and especially Thakore community — leaders. The failure to strike an arrangement with the BJP led Alpesh Thakore to the Congress, which was all too happy to snap him up. × Nothing came out of Alpesh's discussion with the BJP, probably for two reasons. The first is that Alpesh Thakore may have demanded more than what the party could offer to his outfit, the OBC, SC and ST (OSS) Ekta Manch. The second is that the BJP believed its own pro-OBC credentials were strong enough — Prime Minister Narendra Modi belongs to the OBC — and that it need not have to give in to the demands of a newcomer. The failure to strike an arrangement with the BJP led Alpesh Thakore to the Congress, which was all too happy to snap him up. People also snigger than Alpesh Thakore is a BJP creation who was programmed to blunt the Hardik Patel factor but has now turned hostile. There may be an element of truth in this. But this raises another question. With the Patidars and the OBCs to which the Thakores belong, working at cross-purposes at the grassroots level for years, how will the convergence of votes between them happen? Alpesh Thakore rose to prominence alongside Hardik Patel when he opposed the Patidar agitation for reservations, but along the way he suddenly got himself added to the camp which housed the Patidar leader. The non-Thakore communities are not amused. Alpesh Thakore’s credibility (or lack of it, according to his detractors) is what will determine the success of his alignment with the Congress. Indeed, the demonstration of credibility is his strongest challenge. Until months ago, he had claimed to be equidistant from both the Congress and the BJP, and fully committed to the cause of OBC welfare. He wanted a Ram temple in Gujarat and a ban on cow slaughter. He blamed both the Congress and the BJP for a host of social problems, and wanted the prohibition policy to be more stringently implemented in Gujarat. But that is all in the past, and Alpesh Thakore is now one of the star campaigners of the Congress in the State. It is possible that some of his star attraction may rub off on a few of the other OBCs, besides his own community. Will it be good enough for the Congress, remains to be seen? Meanwhile, the OBC leader can continue with his vague promises on equally vague issues. As the Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev said, “Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build bridges even when there are no rivers.” (Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity)

Opinion: Alpesh Thakore's main drawback is lack of credibility

<p>In the post-independence period, Patidars became the social force behind Gujarat&rsquo;s industrial push. By the 1960s and &lsquo;70s, they dominated large sectors of agricultural, industrial and commercial activities.</p>

<p>Patidars consolidated their economic and social standing through affiliating with ruling political parties, first the Congress and then the BJP. &nbsp;The Patidars in sum were the mascots of success in Gujarat and the &lsquo;prosperous Patel&rsquo; became a familiar figure in popular culture and national imagination.</p>

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<p>Yet for all this picture of success, it has to be noted that more than a third of the Patidars are still small and marginal farmers, often inhabiting the less fertile regions of north Gujarat. As the sociologist, Ghanshyam Shah, observed in one of his interviews to the magazine Frontline, that with the onset of a phase of agricultural distress in Gujarat induced by a steep increase in input cost for cultivation most of these poor farmers no longer have resources to access to timely credit for investment.</p>

<p>With agriculture becoming difficult and un-remunerative, the young Patidars are forced to find alternative employment in urban areas. It is here that they encounter the deep disconnect between their abilities and their expectations. In Prof Shah&rsquo; words, &ldquo;it is this lot &nbsp;that forms the spine of the Patidar agitation.&rdquo;</p>

<p>This is a complex situation within a community that&rsquo;s aspirational but structurally disadvantaged not by its caste position, but by a neo-liberal economic order that offers them little recourse to cope with the demands of the job market or look to the state for protection. Once spearheading the anti-reservation movement of the 1980s and now faced with the challenges thrown up by the &lsquo;merit&rsquo; imperative in an unequal social order, the demand for reservations seem to be the sole way out.</p>

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<h5>The demand for reservations is less for jobs than for opportunities in higher education, particularly in engineering and medicine.</h5>
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<p>Yet, as the political scientist Amit Dholakia argues, the demand for reservations is less for jobs than for opportunities in higher education, particularly in engineering and medicine. With the large-scale privatisation of higher education and the proliferation of deemed universities and colleges often demanding high capitation fees and offering a quality of education that rarely meets market demands, the younger Patidars rearing to move out of farming and small enterprise, feel deeply betrayed.</p>

<p>Hemmed in by a lack of educational and social capital and the difficulties of access to the modern sectors of employment, this section of the young Patidars, unlike an older generation, are also finding it increasingly hard to emigrate or seek opportunities in the west. Little wonder then that a &nbsp;2012 film titled &ldquo;Kevi rite jaish?&rdquo; or &ldquo;How do I go?&rdquo; spoofing the Patel aspiration to emigrate resonated with the predicament of the Gujarati youth and became one the most successful regional language films made in recent times.</p>

<p>Alice Tilche a young researcher studying the problems of Patidar discontent makes the astute observation that the problems of Patidar youth have much in common with young people in the newly depleted economies of southern Europe where expectations driven by the promise of education and emigration have been belied by the tightening of international borders and the increasing demands for skilled migrants.</p>

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<p>The villages of Gujarat she concluded have become dismal &ldquo;waiting rooms&rdquo; for a generation of young people who are Patels, but not quite. Their demand for reservations within the Other Backward Class category is a poignant statement of their willingness to be marked &lsquo;down&rsquo; in order to &lsquo;move up&rsquo;.</p>

<p>Hardik&rsquo;s &nbsp;supporters who are bent on defeating the BJP this time constantly remind us that the policemen deployed to brutalise them on the night of his arrest 2015 belonged to the OBCs. They feel that the reservations for caste groups &lsquo;lower&rsquo; than they have left them both deprived and vulnerable.&nbsp;It&rsquo;s a perception that makes their alliance with the OBCs and the Congress a particularly troubled one.</p>

<p>It is likely that the BJP will win the elections and subdue the angry Patidars, but it remains to be seen if it can sustain Gujarat&rsquo;s developmental model in its existing form. The angry young men from the OBC, Dalit and Patidar communities have a compelling story to tell about the social strains, the human costs and economic limits of a market-led model of economic growth. Any party that wins these elections may be well advised to heed these stories and craft an alternative and more genuinely humane model of development for Gujarat.</p>

<p><em>(Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity).</em></p>


Once spearheading the anti-reservation movement of the 1980s, and now faced with the challenges thrown up by the ?merit? imperative in an unequal social order, the demand for reservations seem to be the sole way out for the Patidar community.

In the post-independence period, Patidars became the social force behind Gujarat’s industrial push. By the 1960s and ‘70s, they dominated large sectors of agricultural, industrial and commercial activities. Patidars consolidated their economic and social standing through affiliating with ruling political parties, first the Congress and then the BJP. The Patidars in sum were the mascots of success in Gujarat and the ‘prosperous Patel’ became a familiar figure in popular culture and national imagination. The Patidars in sum were the mascots of success in Gujarat and the ‘prosperous Patel’ became a familiar figure in popular culture and national imagination. × Yet for all this picture of success, it has to be noted that more than a third of the Patidars are still small and marginal farmers, often inhabiting the less fertile regions of north Gujarat. As the sociologist, Ghanshyam Shah, observed in one of his interviews to the magazine Frontline, that with the onset of a phase of agricultural distress in Gujarat induced by a steep increase in input cost for cultivation most of these poor farmers no longer have resources to access to timely credit for investment. With agriculture becoming difficult and un-remunerative, the young Patidars are forced to find alternative employment in urban areas. It is here that they encounter the deep disconnect between their abilities and their expectations. In Prof Shah’ words, “it is this lot that forms the spine of the Patidar agitation.” This is a complex situation within a community that’s aspirational but structurally disadvantaged not by its caste position, but by a neo-liberal economic order that offers them little recourse to cope with the demands of the job market or look to the state for protection. Once spearheading the anti-reservation movement of the 1980s and now faced with the challenges thrown up by the ‘merit’ imperative in an unequal social order, the demand for reservations seem to be the sole way out. The demand for reservations is less for jobs than for opportunities in higher education, particularly in engineering and medicine. × Yet, as the political scientist Amit Dholakia argues, the demand for reservations is less for jobs than for opportunities in higher education, particularly in engineering and medicine. With the large-scale privatisation of higher education and the proliferation of deemed universities and colleges often demanding high capitation fees and offering a quality of education that rarely meets market demands, the younger Patidars rearing to move out of farming and small enterprise, feel deeply betrayed. Hemmed in by a lack of educational and social capital and the difficulties of access to the modern sectors of employment, this section of the young Patidars, unlike an older generation, are also finding it increasingly hard to emigrate or seek opportunities in the west. Little wonder then that a 2012 film titled “Kevi rite jaish?” or “How do I go?” spoofing the Patel aspiration to emigrate resonated with the predicament of the Gujarati youth and became one the most successful regional language films made in recent times. Alice Tilche a young researcher studying the problems of Patidar discontent makes the astute observation that the problems of Patidar youth have much in common with young people in the newly depleted economies of southern Europe where expectations driven by the promise of education and emigration have been belied by the tightening of international borders and the increasing demands for skilled migrants. Their demand for reservations within the Other Backward Class category is a poignant statement of their willingness to be marked ‘down’ in order to ‘move up’. × The villages of Gujarat she concluded have become dismal “waiting rooms” for a generation of young people who are Patels, but not quite. Their demand for reservations within the Other Backward Class category is a poignant statement of their willingness to be marked ‘down’ in order to ‘move up’. Hardik’s supporters who are bent on defeating the BJP this time constantly remind us that the policemen deployed to brutalise them on the night of his arrest 2015 belonged to the OBCs. They feel that the reservations for caste groups ‘lower’ than they have left them both deprived and vulnerable. It’s a perception that makes their alliance with the OBCs and the Congress a particularly troubled one. It is likely that the BJP will win the elections and subdue the angry Patidars, but it remains to be seen if it can sustain Gujarat’s developmental model in its existing form. The angry young men from the OBC, Dalit and Patidar communities have a compelling story to tell about the social strains, the human costs and economic limits of a market-led model of economic growth. Any party that wins these elections may be well advised to heed these stories and craft an alternative and more genuinely humane model of development for Gujarat. (Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity).

Opinion: Harsh reality drives Patidar's demand for reservation

<p>Ahead of the <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/conflict-arises-between-patidar-and-congress-over-ticket-distribution-24557">Gujarat elections, Patidar Anamat </a>Andolan Samiti (PAAS) leader Hardik Patel declared his party wasn&#39;t &quot;openly extending support&quot; to the Congress but will support the party &quot;indirectly&quot;.</p>

<p>&quot;We are not openly extending support to Congress, but we will fight the BJP. So directly or indirectly, there will be support&nbsp;for the&nbsp;Congress,&quot;&nbsp;Hardik said at a press conference in Ahmedabad.</p>

<p>Congress and PAAS were involved in protracted negotiations over seat-sharing last Sunday but failed to reach a consensus.</p>

<p>&quot;Congress has agreed to give Patidars reservations under section 31 and provisions of section 46,&quot; Hardik said, adding,&quot;We have never appealed to anyone to vote for Congress, but since they are talking about our rights, we leave it on people to decide.&quot;</p>

<p>&quot;We never asked for any ticket. Also, there is no conflict within PAAS,&quot; Hardik said.</p>

<p>The PAAS leader accused the BJP of &quot;horse trading&quot; in north Gujarat, saying: &quot;BJP is using tactics as it fears defeat.&quot;</p>

<p>&quot;I am not joining any party, Hardik asserted. The PAAS&nbsp;leader said the Congress had &quot;accepted all issues&quot;&nbsp;and had agreed to give Patidars reservations if they won the Gujarat polls.<br />
&nbsp;</p>


Congress and PAAS were involved in protracted negotiations over seat-sharing last Sunday but failed to reach a consensus.

Ahead of the Gujarat elections, Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) leader Hardik Patel declared his party wasn't "openly extending support" to the Congress but will support the party "indirectly". "We are not openly extending support to Congress, but we will fight the BJP. So directly or indirectly, there will be support for the Congress," Hardik said at a press conference in Ahmedabad. Congress and PAAS were involved in protracted negotiations over seat-sharing last Sunday but failed to reach a consensus. "Congress has agreed to give Patidars reservations under section 31 and provisions of section 46," Hardik said, adding,"We have never appealed to anyone to vote for Congress, but since they are talking about our rights, we leave it on people to decide." "We never asked for any ticket. Also, there is no conflict within PAAS," Hardik said. The PAAS leader accused the BJP of "horse trading" in north Gujarat, saying: "BJP is using tactics as it fears defeat." "I am not joining any party, Hardik asserted. The PAAS leader said the Congress had "accepted all issues" and had agreed to give Patidars reservations if they won the Gujarat polls.

Not openly extending support to Congress in Gujarat elections: Hardik Patel

<p>A day after <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/gujarat-election-congress-releases-first-list-of-candidates-24607" target="_blank">Congress released the first list of candidates</a> for the Gujarat assembly elections, the party on Monday came out with its&nbsp;second list.</p>

<p>The second list for the upcoming Gujarat assembly elections includes 13 candidates.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Senior party leader Oscar Fernandes released the name of the 13 candidates.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The party has replaced four candidates from Junagadh, Bharuch, Kamrej and Varachha Road, announced in the first list.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The new candidates for these constituencies are-&nbsp;Bhikhabhai Joshi in Junagadh, Jaish Patel in Bharuch, Ashok Jirawala will contest from Kamrej and Dhirubhai Gajera&nbsp;for the Varachha Road seat.</p>

<p>The nine other candidates released are -Pradyumansinh Jadeja from Abdasa seat, Aadam B Chaki from Bhuj, Santok Arethiya from Rapar and Mithul Donga from Rajkot East.<br />
Dinesh Chovatiya from Rajkot South, Jiwan Kumbharvadia from Jamnagar North, Ashok Lal from Jamnagar South, Vikram Madam from Khambhalia and Meraman Goriya from Dwarka seat.</p>

<p>The first list released on Sunday included 77 candidates.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Elections in Gujarat are scheduled to be held on December 9 and 14.</p>

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The second list for the upcoming Gujarat assembly elections includes 13 candidates

A day after Congress released the first list of candidates for the Gujarat assembly elections, the party on Monday came out with its second list. The second list for the upcoming Gujarat assembly elections includes 13 candidates. Senior party leader Oscar Fernandes released the name of the 13 candidates. The party has replaced four candidates from Junagadh, Bharuch, Kamrej and Varachha Road, announced in the first list. The new candidates for these constituencies are- Bhikhabhai Joshi in Junagadh, Jaish Patel in Bharuch, Ashok Jirawala will contest from Kamrej and Dhirubhai Gajera for the Varachha Road seat. The nine other candidates released are -Pradyumansinh Jadeja from Abdasa seat, Aadam B Chaki from Bhuj, Santok Arethiya from Rapar and Mithul Donga from Rajkot East. Dinesh Chovatiya from Rajkot South, Jiwan Kumbharvadia from Jamnagar North, Ashok Lal from Jamnagar South, Vikram Madam from Khambhalia and Meraman Goriya from Dwarka seat. The first list released on Sunday included 77 candidates. Elections in Gujarat are scheduled to be held on December 9 and 14.

Gujarat elections: Congress releases second list of candidates

<p>&quot;When I gave the taxi driver at Ahmedabad airport the name of a nondescript hotel as my address, he looked at me pityingly and asked, &ldquo;Chota-mota dhanda hai (Are you engaged in petty business)? I readily agreed and said I was in the business of journalism and had come to study the election; I had been there in 2012 also. He perked up and in the course of the 40-minute journey assured me that change would happen in Gujarat. &ldquo;The BJP will be voted out. Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakore will ensure that.&rdquo;&nbsp;</p>

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<h5>Across north Gujarat and Saurashtra, the Patidars were backing Hardik Patel&rsquo;s reservation agenda and would vote against the BJP.</h5>
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<p>Is Hardik Patel really a challenge, I asked. Does he command the majority support of the Patidar community, I wondered. The taxi driver responded, &ldquo;If he were not a challenge, why is the BJP doing so much to discredit him? And why has the party launched a desperate drive to retain the Patel votes?&rdquo; Across north Gujarat and Saurashtra, he claimed, the Patidars were backing Hardik Patel&rsquo;s reservation agenda and would vote against the BJP.</p>

<p>I assumed by his stiff defence of the young Patel leader that he was a votary of reservation for the Patidar community in the State. His answer was surprising. &ldquo;The Patidars don&rsquo;t deserve reservation. They are financially, educationally and socially well off.&rdquo; Before I could respond, he added, &ldquo;You must be amazed. I am backing Hardik Patel because he is today in my community leader Alpesh Thakore&rsquo;s side.&quot;</p>

<p>The Thakores belong to the Other Backward Class (OBC), and the taxi driver was a Thakore. He strongly suggested that I move around extensively in Mehsana, Patan, Sabarkantha and other parts of north Gujarat, and Ahmedabad too. &ldquo; You will realise that I am right. The BJP will lose this time. You came five years ago, but things are very different today.&rdquo; I assured him that I would visit as many of the places he had advised.&nbsp;</p>

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<h5>BJP will emerge with a simple majority (100-plus seats) and form the Government yet again.</h5>
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<p>But after moving around throughout the day across the length and breadth of Ahmedabad (Thaltej, Vastrapur, Naranpur etc) and in Patan and Mehsana, the impression I had was far from the kind the taxi driver had predicted. The driver represented one kind of extreme outcome which found resonance among a clutch of people on the streets &mdash; the BJP&rsquo;s rout. A few others I spoke to in these towns and adjoining villages presented another extreme &mdash; that the ruling party would return to power with even more seats than it had in 2012.</p>

<p>Most of the people with whom I interacted on the subject foresaw a &lsquo;moderate&rsquo; outcome. They were agreed on three conclusions. The first is that the Hardik Patel factor has gained some traction for the Congress. The second is that the Patidar leader will cut into the Patel vote-bank of the BJP. The third is that, despite these setbacks, the BJP will emerge with a simple majority (100-plus seats) and form the Government yet again.</p>

<p>What also became evident through my interactions in Ahmedabad, Patan and Mehsana is that, at the ground level the Patidar and the Thakore communities do not see eye to eye. This is easy to understand. The Thakores belonging to the OBC resent the prospect of having to share the quota pie with the dominant Patels. It&rsquo;s not ideology that binds them together now; the desire to oust the BJP compels them to share the tent.</p>

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<h5>The turning point for the Patidars, according to a resident of Thaltej locality in Ahmedabad, was the crackdown by the State police on Patidar agitators in August 2015.</h5>
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<p>The turning point for the Patidars, according to a resident of Thaltej locality in Ahmedabad, was the crackdown by the State police on Patidar agitators in August 2015. Fourteen people had died in the violence. The subsequent action against Hardik Patel, including his incarceration and banishment from Gujarat for a while, was viewed as a humiliation of a proud community which had stood by the BJP for decades.</p>

<p>Or at least this is how the Patidar community led by Hardik Patel presented it before his people. The sentiment is echoed by Babubhai Patel, an elderly local in Mehsana. &ldquo;The BJP Government really brutalised the Patidar community through its action. The lathi-charge cannot be forgotten. We would not have turned against the party but for this act of atrocity.&rdquo;</p>

<p>The Thaltej resident, who belongs to the OBC and did not wish to be named, remarked, &ldquo;It&rsquo;s not that the Congress is liked by us. It has been disastrous for Gujarat in the past. But if it can manage Hardik Patel properly, it can gain significantly.&rdquo; The anti-BJP sentiment, according to him, the taxi driver and a few&nbsp;other spoken to, is such that the voters are willing to ignore the development work BJP regimes have done over the years, and the failures of the Congress too.&nbsp;</p>

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<h5>Although Mehsana had been the focal point of the Patidar agitation, opinion there is not overwhelmingly against the BJP</h5>
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<p>Was this an all-pervasive mood? Not really. The manager of the hotel I stayed in, and who appeared politically well-informed, smirked at the proposition. &ldquo;Do not over-estimate Hardik Patel,&rdquo; he warned. &ldquo;Because of his youth and enthusiasm and Congress support, he has begun to look larger-than-life. The Patidar outfit he heads is not the only Patel organisation that exists. There are others and those are as important. They are with the BJP. The Patidar votes will split, true, but not to the extent that the divide can harm the ruling party greatly.&rdquo;</p>

<p>He said that the Patels were an educated lot and socially aware, and they realise that Hardik Patel was leading them up the garden path with his promise of reservation. &ldquo;How can he ensure his community reservation? The 50 per cent mark is already touched. The Congress&rsquo;s assurance is only on paper. It cannot be implemented.&rdquo; This line or reasoning was incidentally shared by several middle-aged and senior citizens.</p>

<p>But everyone is agreed upon the fact that Hardik Patel has taken a big risk and that things can go wrong. If the Congress fails to give the Patidars a credible and actionable plan of action for reservations, for instance. Or, if the Patels, who have been inextricably linked to the BJP for their socio-economic development and who now back Hardik Patel, develop cold feet over the disruption that may happen in case they vote against the BJP, keep themselves away from the polling booth. Or, if the Congress does not give the Hardik Patel-led organisation, the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) a fair number of seats to contest.&nbsp;</p>

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<h5>The Congress and the Hardik Patel-led Patidars, he said, represented the privileged system, while the BJP under Modi stood for inclusive development.</h5>
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<p>There is another danger, which even Hardik Patel&rsquo;s supporters acknowledge, even if grudgingly: That of Prime Minister Narendra Modi&rsquo;s ability to swing fence-sitting Patidar votes in his party&rsquo;s favour through a series of aggressive campaigns in the region. A 65-year old voter in Patan town remarked, &ldquo;Modi sabka magaj ghuma dega (Modi can change people&rsquo;s minds in his favour), adding, &ldquo;Also, don&rsquo;t forget the Gujarati pride (which the Prime Minister symbolises) issue.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Although Mehsana had been the focal point of the Patidar agitation, opinion there is not overwhelmingly against the BJP &mdash; or at least not as decisively as one might have expected. A 25-something (Patel) civil engineer who has ventured into the construction business said that while Hardik Patel was shrewd and manipulative, the BJP led by Modi &ldquo;can manage things at the last moment&rdquo;. He supported Hardik Patel&rsquo;s demand for reservation. &ldquo;Patidars need quota not so much in Government employment (we Patels either have land or are engaged in business or are salaried employees) but in educational institutions.</p>

<p>Why should we lose out to those who are less merited but get through because of quotas?&rdquo; On the other hand, a shop-keeper, vociferously supported by a bunch of youngsters around him, bluntly said, &ldquo;Hardik Patel cannot be trusted. He is neither mature nor responsible.&rdquo;</p>

<p>The sense of ambivalence that was reflected across Ahmedabad and in Patan and Mehsana towns, was replaced by clarity in the small Pimpal village, situated on the Mehsana-Patan road. Phulabhai Jeevabhai Rabari is a 30-year old who is engaged in the dairy business. The Rabari community belongs to the OBC and is a beneficiary of the quota system.</p>

<p>He made light of the benefit and claimed that it made no difference to youngsters like him. &ldquo;We live by our skills and hard work. I don&rsquo;t like the reservation business.&rdquo; The Congress and the Hardik Patel-led Patidars, he said, represented the privileged system, while the BJP under Modi stood for inclusive development. &ldquo;The 2017 election is about development versus reservation&rdquo;, Phulabhai stated. A motley group of villagers seconded the opinion.</p>

<p>Perhaps Phulabhai hit the nail on the head. It does appear that the Assembly poll is just that.</p>


The Congress and the Hardik Patel-led Patidars represented the privileged system, while the BJP under Modi stood for inclusive development.

"When I gave the taxi driver at Ahmedabad airport the name of a nondescript hotel as my address, he looked at me pityingly and asked, “Chota-mota dhanda hai (Are you engaged in petty business)? I readily agreed and said I was in the business of journalism and had come to study the election; I had been there in 2012 also. He perked up and in the course of the 40-minute journey assured me that change would happen in Gujarat. “The BJP will be voted out. Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakore will ensure that.” Across north Gujarat and Saurashtra, the Patidars were backing Hardik Patel’s reservation agenda and would vote against the BJP. × Is Hardik Patel really a challenge, I asked. Does he command the majority support of the Patidar community, I wondered. The taxi driver responded, “If he were not a challenge, why is the BJP doing so much to discredit him? And why has the party launched a desperate drive to retain the Patel votes?” Across north Gujarat and Saurashtra, he claimed, the Patidars were backing Hardik Patel’s reservation agenda and would vote against the BJP. I assumed by his stiff defence of the young Patel leader that he was a votary of reservation for the Patidar community in the State. His answer was surprising. “The Patidars don’t deserve reservation. They are financially, educationally and socially well off.” Before I could respond, he added, “You must be amazed. I am backing Hardik Patel because he is today in my community leader Alpesh Thakore’s side." The Thakores belong to the Other Backward Class (OBC), and the taxi driver was a Thakore. He strongly suggested that I move around extensively in Mehsana, Patan, Sabarkantha and other parts of north Gujarat, and Ahmedabad too. “ You will realise that I am right. The BJP will lose this time. You came five years ago, but things are very different today.” I assured him that I would visit as many of the places he had advised. BJP will emerge with a simple majority (100-plus seats) and form the Government yet again. × But after moving around throughout the day across the length and breadth of Ahmedabad (Thaltej, Vastrapur, Naranpur etc) and in Patan and Mehsana, the impression I had was far from the kind the taxi driver had predicted. The driver represented one kind of extreme outcome which found resonance among a clutch of people on the streets — the BJP’s rout. A few others I spoke to in these towns and adjoining villages presented another extreme — that the ruling party would return to power with even more seats than it had in 2012. Most of the people with whom I interacted on the subject foresaw a ‘moderate’ outcome. They were agreed on three conclusions. The first is that the Hardik Patel factor has gained some traction for the Congress. The second is that the Patidar leader will cut into the Patel vote-bank of the BJP. The third is that, despite these setbacks, the BJP will emerge with a simple majority (100-plus seats) and form the Government yet again. What also became evident through my interactions in Ahmedabad, Patan and Mehsana is that, at the ground level the Patidar and the Thakore communities do not see eye to eye. This is easy to understand. The Thakores belonging to the OBC resent the prospect of having to share the quota pie with the dominant Patels. It’s not ideology that binds them together now; the desire to oust the BJP compels them to share the tent. The turning point for the Patidars, according to a resident of Thaltej locality in Ahmedabad, was the crackdown by the State police on Patidar agitators in August 2015. × The turning point for the Patidars, according to a resident of Thaltej locality in Ahmedabad, was the crackdown by the State police on Patidar agitators in August 2015. Fourteen people had died in the violence. The subsequent action against Hardik Patel, including his incarceration and banishment from Gujarat for a while, was viewed as a humiliation of a proud community which had stood by the BJP for decades. Or at least this is how the Patidar community led by Hardik Patel presented it before his people. The sentiment is echoed by Babubhai Patel, an elderly local in Mehsana. “The BJP Government really brutalised the Patidar community through its action. The lathi-charge cannot be forgotten. We would not have turned against the party but for this act of atrocity.” The Thaltej resident, who belongs to the OBC and did not wish to be named, remarked, “It’s not that the Congress is liked by us. It has been disastrous for Gujarat in the past. But if it can manage Hardik Patel properly, it can gain significantly.” The anti-BJP sentiment, according to him, the taxi driver and a few other spoken to, is such that the voters are willing to ignore the development work BJP regimes have done over the years, and the failures of the Congress too. Although Mehsana had been the focal point of the Patidar agitation, opinion there is not overwhelmingly against the BJP × Was this an all-pervasive mood? Not really. The manager of the hotel I stayed in, and who appeared politically well-informed, smirked at the proposition. “Do not over-estimate Hardik Patel,” he warned. “Because of his youth and enthusiasm and Congress support, he has begun to look larger-than-life. The Patidar outfit he heads is not the only Patel organisation that exists. There are others and those are as important. They are with the BJP. The Patidar votes will split, true, but not to the extent that the divide can harm the ruling party greatly.” He said that the Patels were an educated lot and socially aware, and they realise that Hardik Patel was leading them up the garden path with his promise of reservation. “How can he ensure his community reservation? The 50 per cent mark is already touched. The Congress’s assurance is only on paper. It cannot be implemented.” This line or reasoning was incidentally shared by several middle-aged and senior citizens. But everyone is agreed upon the fact that Hardik Patel has taken a big risk and that things can go wrong. If the Congress fails to give the Patidars a credible and actionable plan of action for reservations, for instance. Or, if the Patels, who have been inextricably linked to the BJP for their socio-economic development and who now back Hardik Patel, develop cold feet over the disruption that may happen in case they vote against the BJP, keep themselves away from the polling booth. Or, if the Congress does not give the Hardik Patel-led organisation, the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) a fair number of seats to contest. The Congress and the Hardik Patel-led Patidars, he said, represented the privileged system, while the BJP under Modi stood for inclusive development. × There is another danger, which even Hardik Patel’s supporters acknowledge, even if grudgingly: That of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ability to swing fence-sitting Patidar votes in his party’s favour through a series of aggressive campaigns in the region. A 65-year old voter in Patan town remarked, “Modi sabka magaj ghuma dega (Modi can change people’s minds in his favour), adding, “Also, don’t forget the Gujarati pride (which the Prime Minister symbolises) issue.” Although Mehsana had been the focal point of the Patidar agitation, opinion there is not overwhelmingly against the BJP — or at least not as decisively as one might have expected. A 25-something (Patel) civil engineer who has ventured into the construction business said that while Hardik Patel was shrewd and manipulative, the BJP led by Modi “can manage things at the last moment”. He supported Hardik Patel’s demand for reservation. “Patidars need quota not so much in Government employment (we Patels either have land or are engaged in business or are salaried employees) but in educational institutions. Why should we lose out to those who are less merited but get through because of quotas?” On the other hand, a shop-keeper, vociferously supported by a bunch of youngsters around him, bluntly said, “Hardik Patel cannot be trusted. He is neither mature nor responsible.” The sense of ambivalence that was reflected across Ahmedabad and in Patan and Mehsana towns, was replaced by clarity in the small Pimpal village, situated on the Mehsana-Patan road. Phulabhai Jeevabhai Rabari is a 30-year old who is engaged in the dairy business. The Rabari community belongs to the OBC and is a beneficiary of the quota system. He made light of the benefit and claimed that it made no difference to youngsters like him. “We live by our skills and hard work. I don’t like the reservation business.” The Congress and the Hardik Patel-led Patidars, he said, represented the privileged system, while the BJP under Modi stood for inclusive development. “The 2017 election is about development versus reservation”, Phulabhai stated. A motley group of villagers seconded the opinion. Perhaps Phulabhai hit the nail on the head. It does appear that the Assembly poll is just that.

2017 Gujarat election: Development vs reservation

<p>Sharad Pawar-led <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/watch-unhappy-over-ticket-distribution-paas-workers-vandalise-congress-office-in-surat-24609">Nationalist Congress Party(NCP)</a> has decided to fight the Gujarat Assembly elections without the Congress.</p>

<p>NCP leader Praful Patel said: &quot;Congress did not seem serious and kept on delaying, so we will fight alone,&quot; adding,&quot;We wanted to contest in Gujarat in alliance with Congress and had talks with them too.&quot;&nbsp;</p>

<p>&quot;We are confident of doing even better alone,&quot; he added.</p>

<p>The Congress has been trying to stitch a coalition against the ruling BJP in the Gujarat elections due to be held next month.&nbsp;</p>

<p>On Sunday, Congress and the Hardik Patel&#39;s Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti(PAAS) had reached a seat-sharing agreement after protracted talks, however, last night clashes erupted between PAAS workers and Gujarat Congress party cadres in Ahmedabad and Surat over ticket distribution.</p>

<p>The clashes came even as the Congress released its first list of 77 candidates for the Gujarat polls. The list included three Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) contestants.</p>

<p>The BJP has been in power in Gujarat since 1998, India&#39;s prime minister Narendra Modi became chief minister of the state for the first time in 2002. This will be the first time the BJP will be fighting the elections without Modi at the helm in his home state. &nbsp;</p>

<p>Despite several attempts, the Congress has been unable to dislodge the ruling party.</p>

<p>Last week, taking a jibe at the &#39;&#39;Gujarat model&#39;, senior Congress leader and former finance minister P Chidambaram in a series of tweets slammed PM Modi over &#39;extravagant promises&#39; made by him&nbsp;in Gujarat, asserting that &quot;in reality, had worsened since BJP came to power.&quot;&nbsp;</p>

<p>Chidambaram compared Gujarat&#39;s development figures with Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Maharashtra, and said it continues to &quot;lag behind even after all the &#39;boasting&#39;.&quot;&nbsp;<br />
&nbsp;</p>


The Congress has been trying to stitch a coalition against the ruling BJP in Gujarat elections due to be held next month.?

Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party(NCP) has decided to fight the Gujarat Assembly elections without the Congress. NCP leader Praful Patel said: "Congress did not seem serious and kept on delaying, so we will fight alone," adding,"We wanted to contest in Gujarat in alliance with Congress and had talks with them too." "We are confident of doing even better alone," he added. The Congress has been trying to stitch a coalition against the ruling BJP in the Gujarat elections due to be held next month. On Sunday, Congress and the Hardik Patel's Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti(PAAS) had reached a seat-sharing agreement after protracted talks, however, last night clashes erupted between PAAS workers and Gujarat Congress party cadres in Ahmedabad and Surat over ticket distribution. The clashes came even as the Congress released its first list of 77 candidates for the Gujarat polls. The list included three Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) contestants. The BJP has been in power in Gujarat since 1998, India's prime minister Narendra Modi became chief minister of the state for the first time in 2002. This will be the first time the BJP will be fighting the elections without Modi at the helm in his home state. Despite several attempts, the Congress has been unable to dislodge the ruling party. Last week, taking a jibe at the ''Gujarat model', senior Congress leader and former finance minister P Chidambaram in a series of tweets slammed PM Modi over 'extravagant promises' made by him in Gujarat, asserting that "in reality, had worsened since BJP came to power." Chidambaram compared Gujarat's development figures with Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Maharashtra, and said it continues to "lag behind even after all the 'boasting'."

NCP won't fight Gujarat elections with Congress: Praful Patel

<p>Days before polling-day in the Gujarat assembly elections, differences have cropped up between Congress and Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) over seat sharing as Congress is not ready to yield to the demands of Hardik Patel to part with nine seats.</p>

<p>The Congress is ready to give only 4 tickets to the Patel led outfit.&nbsp;</p>

<p>According to media reports, the representatives from the two parties met on Friday to discuss ticket sharing and quota issue.&nbsp;</p>

<p>By late Friday, PAAS leaders gave a 24-hour ultimatum to Congress for a final decision.&nbsp;</p>

<p>PAAS is demanding tickets in Patidar dominated areas in Ahmedabad, north Gujarat and Saurashtra.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Congress had earlier assured adequate political representation to the Patidars. However, it changed its mind after the<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/gujarat-elections-sex-cd-goes-viral-allegation-is-it-features-hardik-patel-24122" target="_blank"> alleged sex CD</a> surfaced.</p>

<p>The Congress united with the Patidars to garner support from the state&#39;s Patidar community.</p>

<p>It had earlier<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/congress-invites-hardik-patel-to-contest-gujarat-elections-22699" target="_blank"> invited Hardik Patel to contest elections</a> in state&#39;s assembly elections.&nbsp;To which Hardik replied that it was not a BJP-Congress election. However, he added, &quot; we must unite against BJP&quot;.</p>

<p>The <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/want-clarity-on-patidar-reservation-issue-by-nov-7-hardik-patel-23167" target="_blank">Patidar leader joined Congress on a condition</a> that the party would adhere to their <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/gujarat-elections-cong-gives-3-quota-options-to-patidars-who-say-theyll-get-back-to-them-23775" target="_blank">demands of allowing reservation </a>in education and government jobs to his community.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Conflicts arose after Congress refused to accede to the demands Hardik Patel led Samiti's proposal of 9 tickets.?The Congress is ready to give only 4 tickets to the Patel led outfit

Days before polling-day in the Gujarat assembly elections, differences have cropped up between Congress and Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) over seat sharing as Congress is not ready to yield to the demands of Hardik Patel to part with nine seats. The Congress is ready to give only 4 tickets to the Patel led outfit. According to media reports, the representatives from the two parties met on Friday to discuss ticket sharing and quota issue. By late Friday, PAAS leaders gave a 24-hour ultimatum to Congress for a final decision. PAAS is demanding tickets in Patidar dominated areas in Ahmedabad, north Gujarat and Saurashtra. The Congress had earlier assured adequate political representation to the Patidars. However, it changed its mind after the alleged sex CD surfaced. The Congress united with the Patidars to garner support from the state's Patidar community. It had earlier invited Hardik Patel to contest elections in state's assembly elections. To which Hardik replied that it was not a BJP-Congress election. However, he added, " we must unite against BJP". The Patidar leader joined Congress on a condition that the party would adhere to their demands of allowing reservation in education and government jobs to his community.

Hardik Patel sulks over seat sharing ahead of Gujarat poll

<p>The Congress and the Hardik Patel-led Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) on Sunday seemed to have reached an agreement over the issue of seat sharing and reservations for the Patidar community in Gujarat ahead of the assembly elections in the state.</p>

<p>After meeting PAAS leaders in Ahmedabad, Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee (GPCC) President Bharat Singh Solanki said the two parties had reached an agreement after the deadlock in the last meeting.</p>

<p>&quot;In the last meeting where talks had got stuck, on those matters we have reached an agreement and a consensus,&quot; the Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee President said, adding that the PASS leaders had not asked for any ticket.</p>

<p>&quot;PAAS has not asked for any ticket. Neither Alpesh Thakur nor Jignesh Mevani have asked for tickets.&quot;</p>

<p>PAAS spokesperson Dinesh Bambhaniya said his party&#39;s &quot;first and last concern&quot; was reservation and that Hardik Patel would make an announcement tomorrow.</p>

<p>PAAS is demanding tickets in Patidar dominated areas in Ahmedabad, north Gujarat and Saurashtra.&nbsp;</p>

<p><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/conflict-arises-between-patidar-and-congress-over-ticket-distribution-24557">Media reports had earlier stated that differences between the Congress and PAAS over seat sharing</a> were because the Congress was not ready to yield to the demands of Hardik Patel to part with 30 seats. The party was reportedly convincing the group to settle for a lesser number of seats.</p>

<p>The Congress had earlier assured adequate political representation to the Patidars. However, it changed its mind after the alleged sex CD of Hardik Patel surfaced.</p>

<p>Representatives from the two parties reportedly met on Friday to discuss ticket sharing and the quota issue.&nbsp;</p>

<p>On Friday, PAAS leaders had given a<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/hardik-patel-group-sets-quota-deadline-for-congress-24533"> 24-hour deadline to the Congress for a final decision on reservations</a>. The deadline ended at midnight Saturday.</p>

<p>The last date for filing nominations for the first phase of the Gujarat assembly elections is November 21.</p>

<p>The Congress has been trying to win over the Patidar community ahead of the assembly elections in the state.</p>

<p>Last month, two of Hardik Patel&#39;s close aides from the Patidar community, Reshma Patel and Varun Patel, joined the BJP.</p>

<p>Hardik Patel poses a challenge to the ruling BJP as he holds a sway over a chunk of Patidars, considered as loyal voters of the party.</p>

<p>The Congress had earlier invited Hardik Patel to contest elections in state&#39;s assembly elections. Hardik said that it was not a BJP-Congress election but said &quot; we must unite against BJP&quot;.<br />
&nbsp;</p>


After meeting PAAS leaders in Ahmedabad, Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee President Bharat Singh Solanki said the two parties had reached an agreement after the deadlock in the last meeting

The Congress and the Hardik Patel-led Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) on Sunday seemed to have reached an agreement over the issue of seat sharing and reservations for the Patidar community in Gujarat ahead of the assembly elections in the state. After meeting PAAS leaders in Ahmedabad, Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee (GPCC) President Bharat Singh Solanki said the two parties had reached an agreement after the deadlock in the last meeting. "In the last meeting where talks had got stuck, on those matters we have reached an agreement and a consensus," the Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee President said, adding that the PASS leaders had not asked for any ticket. "PAAS has not asked for any ticket. Neither Alpesh Thakur nor Jignesh Mevani have asked for tickets." PAAS spokesperson Dinesh Bambhaniya said his party's "first and last concern" was reservation and that Hardik Patel would make an announcement tomorrow. PAAS is demanding tickets in Patidar dominated areas in Ahmedabad, north Gujarat and Saurashtra. Media reports had earlier stated that differences between the Congress and PAAS over seat sharing were because the Congress was not ready to yield to the demands of Hardik Patel to part with 30 seats. The party was reportedly convincing the group to settle for a lesser number of seats. The Congress had earlier assured adequate political representation to the Patidars. However, it changed its mind after the alleged sex CD of Hardik Patel surfaced. Representatives from the two parties reportedly met on Friday to discuss ticket sharing and the quota issue. On Friday, PAAS leaders had given a 24-hour deadline to the Congress for a final decision on reservations. The deadline ended at midnight Saturday. The last date for filing nominations for the first phase of the Gujarat assembly elections is November 21. The Congress has been trying to win over the Patidar community ahead of the assembly elections in the state. Last month, two of Hardik Patel's close aides from the Patidar community, Reshma Patel and Varun Patel, joined the BJP. Hardik Patel poses a challenge to the ruling BJP as he holds a sway over a chunk of Patidars, considered as loyal voters of the party. The Congress had earlier invited Hardik Patel to contest elections in state's assembly elections. Hardik said that it was not a BJP-Congress election but said " we must unite against BJP".

Reached agreement with PAAS for Gujarat polls: Congress

<p>The Hardik Patel-led Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) on Friday set a 24-hour deadline for the Congress party on giving reservations to the Patidar community in Gujarat, a media outlet reported.</p>

<p>The deadline ends at midnight Saturday.<br />
<br />
Ahead of next month&#39;s assembly elections in Gujarat, PAAS has given a list of about 30 assembly seats from where it wants to field its candidates, sources told NDTV, adding that the Congress is trying to convince the group to settle for lesser number of seats.</p>

<p>The NDTV report said that four leaders of the Hardik Patel group were in Delhi on Friday for talks with senior Congress leaders to finalise the agreement for quotas to the Patidars.</p>

<p>&quot;But we were kept waiting the entire day for the meeting at Gujarat Bhawan,&quot; PASS convener Dinesh Bambhania was quoted as saying by NDTV. (Also Read -<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/gujarat-elections-cong-gives-3-quota-options-to-patidars-who-say-theyll-get-back-to-them-23775"> Gujarat elections: Cong gives 3 quota options to Patidars who say they&#39;ll get back to them</a>)</p>

<p>&quot;Now we have given a 24-hour ultimatum to the Congress. If you don&#39;t accept the demand, then we will assume that you don&#39;t need support in the next election,&quot; he added.</p>

<p>The last date for filing nominations for the first phase of the Gujarat assembly elections is November 21.</p>

<p>The Congress has been trying to win over the Patidar community ahead of the assembly elections in the state.</p>

<p>Last month, two of Hardik Patel&#39;s close aides from the Patidar community, Reshma Patel and Varun Patel, joined the BJP.</p>

<p>Hardik Patel poses a challenge to the ruling BJP as he holds a sway over a chunk of Patidars, considered as loyal voters of the party.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Ahead of next month's assembly elections in Gujarat, PAAS has given a list of about 30 assembly seats from where it wants to field its candidates, sources told NDTV, adding that the Congress is trying to convince the group to settle for lesser number of seats

The Hardik Patel-led Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) on Friday set a 24-hour deadline for the Congress party on giving reservations to the Patidar community in Gujarat, a media outlet reported. The deadline ends at midnight Saturday. Ahead of next month's assembly elections in Gujarat, PAAS has given a list of about 30 assembly seats from where it wants to field its candidates, sources told NDTV, adding that the Congress is trying to convince the group to settle for lesser number of seats. The NDTV report said that four leaders of the Hardik Patel group were in Delhi on Friday for talks with senior Congress leaders to finalise the agreement for quotas to the Patidars. "But we were kept waiting the entire day for the meeting at Gujarat Bhawan," PASS convener Dinesh Bambhania was quoted as saying by NDTV. (Also Read - Gujarat elections: Cong gives 3 quota options to Patidars who say they'll get back to them) "Now we have given a 24-hour ultimatum to the Congress. If you don't accept the demand, then we will assume that you don't need support in the next election," he added. The last date for filing nominations for the first phase of the Gujarat assembly elections is November 21. The Congress has been trying to win over the Patidar community ahead of the assembly elections in the state. Last month, two of Hardik Patel's close aides from the Patidar community, Reshma Patel and Varun Patel, joined the BJP. Hardik Patel poses a challenge to the ruling BJP as he holds a sway over a chunk of Patidars, considered as loyal voters of the party.

Hardik Patel group sets quota deadline for Congress

<p>Is Gujarat ready to deliver the sixth term for Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) on December 18, 2017? The answer is not as simple as the question. Since 1962, Congress and BJP have each been successful six and five times respectively in winning five consecutive terms. However, Madhav Singh Solanki of Congress and Narendra Modi of BJP were the only Chief Ministers to win three consecutive terms for their parties.</p>

<p><meta charset="utf-8" /></p>

<p>It is common sense that each electoral victory is based on a combination of several factors for which positive determinants outweigh the negative ones. Whatever may, in the 2017 Gujarat election, one may notice that the competitiveness of Congress and BJP is more balanced than expected at least with regard to the popular perception.</p>

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<h5>In the Saurashtra and Kutch region as the present political conjuncture in this region is favourable to Rahul Gandhi&rsquo;s Congress.</h5>
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<p>While the planets may seem aligned for BJP, the bad news is the party running for the sixth consecutive term. Therefore, it appears that there is a risk of fatigue on the part of the electorates in Gujarat. This trend is more visible in the Saurashtra and Kutch region as the present political conjuncture in this region is favourable to Rahul Gandhi&rsquo;s Congress.</p>

<p>We must remember that &ldquo;all politics is local&rdquo; and thus each region has their own political dynamics. It is equally true about Saurashtra and Kutch&nbsp;region. In total, there are 54 assembly seats in this region, the highest number comparing other regions. In particular, these assembly seats are divided as per the following: 6 in Kutch, 5 in Surendranagar, 11 in Rajkot, 7 in Jamnagar, 2 in Porbandar, 9 in Junagarh, 5 in Amreli, and 9 in Bhavnagar.</p>

<p>Saurashtra and Kutch&#39;s region is no longer appearing ideologically stable with BJP and showing trends to swing in favour of Congress. Though BJP did well in this region in 2012 Assembly elections despite the probable challenge from Keshubhai Patel&rsquo;s Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP). The BJP won 34 of the 54 seats. But the party&rsquo;s vote share in the region was declined from 48 per cent in 2007 to 45 per cent in 2012.</p>

<p>One of the reasons was the GPP&rsquo;s performance that secured almost 8 per cent of the votes in this region and ended up winning two seats. The Congress won 16 seats that is a gain of two seats from 2007. Interestingly, BJP with 34 seats got 45 per cent of votes while Congress with only 16 seats got 37 per cent of votes.</p>

<p>In the past and even now, there has been a deep schism between the mainland Gujarat and Saurashtra. In 1957, Jivraj Mehta from Saurashtra as Chief Minister nominated most of the minsters from Saurashtra region and refused to take orders from the mainland dominated Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee.</p>

<p>The replacement of Keshubhai Patel from Saurashtra by Narendra Modi in 2001 was seen in the similar light. Similarly, in popular imaginations, mainland Gujarat is treated modern, progressive while Saurashtra as backward and regressive.</p>

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<h5>The changing social dynamics in this region is equally worrisome for BJP.</h5>
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<p>In 2017, we must underline that Congress is becoming stronger in this region. As for the voters Congress resembles more as BJP in its methods and approach to make a dent in BJP&rsquo;s support base like visiting temples, attending local festivals, sidelining minorities, playing religious card like using Lord Shiva, exploiting the economic pessimism among farmers, workers, traders, industrialists due to GST, demonetisation, poor employment records and other governance failures at local level.</p>

<p>At the same time, the changing social dynamics in this region is equally worrisome for BJP. It can be seen in the rising anxiety amongst the close circle of BJP due to the rising graph of the Congress. If election will held today, as reflected in the November 2017 survey of Lokniti-CSDS data, both Congress and BJP will secure 42 per cent of votes. However, in the August 2017 Survey, BJP was supposedly enjoying 65 per cent of vote shares while Congress only 26 per cent. It is certainly a huge decline of BJP on perception index.</p>

<p>How do we explain such a decline in popular perception? The significant development is the frustration of Patidars and Karadia Rajputs with BJP. Karadia Rajputs having a dominant presence in 25 Assembly constituencies of this region and traditionally voted for BJP are mobilising against the party.</p>

<p>We must note that Karadia Rajputs are OBCs and the OBC leader Alpesh Thakor is gaining prominence among them. Interestingly, their rivalries with Patidars are also getting diluted due to their anti-BJP convergence. What could not be gained socially is achieved politically? It is also to be highlighted that Rajputs in Saurashtra includes lower castes such as Kathis, Kolis and Mers and collectively referred as Kshatriyas.</p>

<p>For Patidars, Saurashtra and Kutch&nbsp;is a stronghold. They are in sizable presence in more than 30 Assembly seats and are in a position to tip the scale of victory in these constituencies. The Patidar leader, Hardik Patel still enjoys the confidence of his community despite the attempt to demean his character through the sudden release of CDs. It must be noted that it is not for the first time Patidars are giving a challenge to BJP. In 2012, Keshubhai Patel also tried to mobilise Patidar voters but failed.</p>

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<h5>The certain swing of voters and the habit of &lsquo;panic vote&rsquo; in the last minute may still be able to change the fate of the BJP in Saurashtra as it happened in 2012.</h5>
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<p>But unlike the past, first, Patidar&rsquo;s anger was consolidated with an organised movement by the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti on the pretext of &lsquo;first reservation then vote&rsquo;. Second, the overall pessimism of the electorate was relatively modest in 2012, and thus BJP did well due to excellent management of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. Third, for the first time, Kadvas, Leuvas and other sub-castes of Patels like Chaudharys and Anjanas came together to emerge as the united force due to reservation movement.</p>

<p>However, BJP may get the support from Koli community that is more than 20 per cent and has a sizable presence in 18 Assembly seats in Saurashtra. More specifically, like always, the certain swing of voters and the habit of &lsquo;panic vote&rsquo; in the last minute may still be able to change the fate of the BJP in Saurashtra as it happened in 2012.</p>

<p><em>(Disclaimer</em>: <em>The author writes here in a personal capacity)</em></p>


The changing social dynamics in Saurashtra and Kutch is worrisome for BJP and also Congress is becoming stronger in this region

Is Gujarat ready to deliver the sixth term for Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) on December 18, 2017? The answer is not as simple as the question. Since 1962, Congress and BJP have each been successful six and five times respectively in winning five consecutive terms. However, Madhav Singh Solanki of Congress and Narendra Modi of BJP were the only Chief Ministers to win three consecutive terms for their parties. It is common sense that each electoral victory is based on a combination of several factors for which positive determinants outweigh the negative ones. Whatever may, in the 2017 Gujarat election, one may notice that the competitiveness of Congress and BJP is more balanced than expected at least with regard to the popular perception. In the Saurashtra and Kutch region as the present political conjuncture in this region is favourable to Rahul Gandhi’s Congress. × While the planets may seem aligned for BJP, the bad news is the party running for the sixth consecutive term. Therefore, it appears that there is a risk of fatigue on the part of the electorates in Gujarat. This trend is more visible in the Saurashtra and Kutch region as the present political conjuncture in this region is favourable to Rahul Gandhi’s Congress. We must remember that “all politics is local” and thus each region has their own political dynamics. It is equally true about Saurashtra and Kutch region. In total, there are 54 assembly seats in this region, the highest number comparing other regions. In particular, these assembly seats are divided as per the following: 6 in Kutch, 5 in Surendranagar, 11 in Rajkot, 7 in Jamnagar, 2 in Porbandar, 9 in Junagarh, 5 in Amreli, and 9 in Bhavnagar. Saurashtra and Kutch's region is no longer appearing ideologically stable with BJP and showing trends to swing in favour of Congress. Though BJP did well in this region in 2012 Assembly elections despite the probable challenge from Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP). The BJP won 34 of the 54 seats. But the party’s vote share in the region was declined from 48 per cent in 2007 to 45 per cent in 2012. One of the reasons was the GPP’s performance that secured almost 8 per cent of the votes in this region and ended up winning two seats. The Congress won 16 seats that is a gain of two seats from 2007. Interestingly, BJP with 34 seats got 45 per cent of votes while Congress with only 16 seats got 37 per cent of votes. In the past and even now, there has been a deep schism between the mainland Gujarat and Saurashtra. In 1957, Jivraj Mehta from Saurashtra as Chief Minister nominated most of the minsters from Saurashtra region and refused to take orders from the mainland dominated Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee. The replacement of Keshubhai Patel from Saurashtra by Narendra Modi in 2001 was seen in the similar light. Similarly, in popular imaginations, mainland Gujarat is treated modern, progressive while Saurashtra as backward and regressive. The changing social dynamics in this region is equally worrisome for BJP. × In 2017, we must underline that Congress is becoming stronger in this region. As for the voters Congress resembles more as BJP in its methods and approach to make a dent in BJP’s support base like visiting temples, attending local festivals, sidelining minorities, playing religious card like using Lord Shiva, exploiting the economic pessimism among farmers, workers, traders, industrialists due to GST, demonetisation, poor employment records and other governance failures at local level. At the same time, the changing social dynamics in this region is equally worrisome for BJP. It can be seen in the rising anxiety amongst the close circle of BJP due to the rising graph of the Congress. If election will held today, as reflected in the November 2017 survey of Lokniti-CSDS data, both Congress and BJP will secure 42 per cent of votes. However, in the August 2017 Survey, BJP was supposedly enjoying 65 per cent of vote shares while Congress only 26 per cent. It is certainly a huge decline of BJP on perception index. How do we explain such a decline in popular perception? The significant development is the frustration of Patidars and Karadia Rajputs with BJP. Karadia Rajputs having a dominant presence in 25 Assembly constituencies of this region and traditionally voted for BJP are mobilising against the party. We must note that Karadia Rajputs are OBCs and the OBC leader Alpesh Thakor is gaining prominence among them. Interestingly, their rivalries with Patidars are also getting diluted due to their anti-BJP convergence. What could not be gained socially is achieved politically? It is also to be highlighted that Rajputs in Saurashtra includes lower castes such as Kathis, Kolis and Mers and collectively referred as Kshatriyas. For Patidars, Saurashtra and Kutch is a stronghold. They are in sizable presence in more than 30 Assembly seats and are in a position to tip the scale of victory in these constituencies. The Patidar leader, Hardik Patel still enjoys the confidence of his community despite the attempt to demean his character through the sudden release of CDs. It must be noted that it is not for the first time Patidars are giving a challenge to BJP. In 2012, Keshubhai Patel also tried to mobilise Patidar voters but failed. The certain swing of voters and the habit of ‘panic vote’ in the last minute may still be able to change the fate of the BJP in Saurashtra as it happened in 2012. × But unlike the past, first, Patidar’s anger was consolidated with an organised movement by the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti on the pretext of ‘first reservation then vote’. Second, the overall pessimism of the electorate was relatively modest in 2012, and thus BJP did well due to excellent management of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. Third, for the first time, Kadvas, Leuvas and other sub-castes of Patels like Chaudharys and Anjanas came together to emerge as the united force due to reservation movement. However, BJP may get the support from Koli community that is more than 20 per cent and has a sizable presence in 18 Assembly seats in Saurashtra. More specifically, like always, the certain swing of voters and the habit of ‘panic vote’ in the last minute may still be able to change the fate of the BJP in Saurashtra as it happened in 2012. (Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity)

Changing dynamics in Saurashtra might hurt BJP in Gujarat

<p>Former Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) leader Chirag Patel joined the Bharatiya Janata Party on Thursday.</p>

<p>The former leader of the Hardik Patel-led PAAS joined the BJP in the presence of Gujarat Deputy chief minister Nitin Patel, ANI reported.</p>

<p>(Also Read -<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/gujarat-elections-cong-gives-3-quota-options-to-patidars-who-say-theyll-get-back-to-them-23775"> Gujarat elections: Cong gives 3 quota options to Patidars who say they&#39;ll get back to them</a>)</p>

<p>The development is likely to come as a setback to the Congress which has been trying to win over the Patidar community ahead of the assembly elections in the state.</p>

<p>Last month, two of Hardik Patel&#39;s close aides from the Patidar community, Reshma Patel and Varun Patel, joined the BJP.</p>

<p>Hardik Patel poses a challenge to the ruling BJP as he holds a sway over a chunk of Patidars, considered as loyal voters of the party.</p>


The development is likely to come as a setback to the Congress which has been trying to win over the Patidar community ahead of the assembly elections in the state

Former Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) leader Chirag Patel joined the Bharatiya Janata Party on Thursday. The former leader of the Hardik Patel-led PAAS joined the BJP in the presence of Gujarat Deputy chief minister Nitin Patel, ANI reported. (Also Read - Gujarat elections: Cong gives 3 quota options to Patidars who say they'll get back to them) The development is likely to come as a setback to the Congress which has been trying to win over the Patidar community ahead of the assembly elections in the state. Last month, two of Hardik Patel's close aides from the Patidar community, Reshma Patel and Varun Patel, joined the BJP. Hardik Patel poses a challenge to the ruling BJP as he holds a sway over a chunk of Patidars, considered as loyal voters of the party.

Gujarat elections: Former PAAS leader Chirag Patel joins BJP

<p>The Election Commission(EC) has put restrictions on the use of the term &quot;Pappu&quot; by BJP&#39;s electronic advertisement cell in Gujarat.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The ruling BJP has been barred from using the term &quot;Pappu&quot; in their electronic advertisement for the upcoming assembly elections in the state.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The term is often used to describe Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi.</p>

<p>Calling the term &quot;derogatory&quot;&nbsp;the Election Commission in Gujarat has asked to remove or replace it.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The media committee under the Gujarat Chief Electoral Officer(CEO) objected to the word &quot;pappu&quot; which was mentioned in the BJP&#39;s script of advertising, BJP sources cited. The script was submitted to the media committee for approval.</p>

<p>Clarifying itself, the BJP said the script of the advertisement did not &quot;link the word to any individual&quot;.&nbsp;</p>

<p>A BJP leader said that they asked the Election Commission to reconsider their decision as there was no direct reference to any person with the term. However, the request was rejected by the EC.</p>

<p>The leader later assured to replace the word and submit a new script to the Election Commission.&nbsp;<br />
<br />
All political parties need to submit their script related to the election advertisement to the EC. The parties can continue with the advertisement only after they get a certificate of approval from the commission.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Calling the term "derogatory"?the Election Commission in Gujarat has asked to remove or replace it

The Election Commission(EC) has put restrictions on the use of the term "Pappu" by BJP's electronic advertisement cell in Gujarat. The ruling BJP has been barred from using the term "Pappu" in their electronic advertisement for the upcoming assembly elections in the state. The term is often used to describe Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi. Calling the term "derogatory" the Election Commission in Gujarat has asked to remove or replace it. The media committee under the Gujarat Chief Electoral Officer(CEO) objected to the word "pappu" which was mentioned in the BJP's script of advertising, BJP sources cited. The script was submitted to the media committee for approval. Clarifying itself, the BJP said the script of the advertisement did not "link the word to any individual". A BJP leader said that they asked the Election Commission to reconsider their decision as there was no direct reference to any person with the term. However, the request was rejected by the EC. The leader later assured to replace the word and submit a new script to the Election Commission. All political parties need to submit their script related to the election advertisement to the EC. The parties can continue with the advertisement only after they get a certificate of approval from the commission.

Election Commission bars BJP from using the term 'Pappu' in Gujarat elections

<p>A day after a sex video -- allegedly featuring Patidar leader Hardik Patel; the allegation has not been proved -- went viral on social media, another video has surfaced.&nbsp;</p>

<p><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/gujarat-elections-sex-cd-goes-viral-allegation-is-it-features-hardik-patel-24122" target="_blank">Also read:&nbsp;Gujarat elections: Sex CD goes viral, allegation is it features Hardik Patel</a></p>

<p>PTI reported that this video features a man with a tonsured head relaxing on a bed with a woman and two men.&nbsp;</p>

<p>PTI added that Patel had tonsured his head in May this year along with his supporters to protest against alleged police atrocities on members of his community during the Patidar quota agitation.</p>

<p>Patel is still to react to the second video, but he had blamed the release of the first video on the BJP.&nbsp;</p>

<p>He had tweeted yesterday:&nbsp;</p>

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<p dir="ltr" lang="hi">????? ?? ???? ??? ?? ??,???? ???? ???? ???? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ????????? ?? ??????? ?? ???? ?? ??? ???????? ????? ???? ??? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ???? ????</p>
&mdash; Hardik Patel (@HardikPatel_) <a href="https://twitter.com/HardikPatel_/status/930078432314249217?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 13, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="hi">?? ???? ??????? ?? ?????? ?? ?? ???????? ????? ?? ?? ??? ?????? ???? ??????,????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ?? ??? ????</p>
&mdash; Hardik Patel (@HardikPatel_) <a href="https://twitter.com/HardikPatel_/status/930005238991478784?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 13, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<p>Interestingly, Patel had foretold -- on November 10 -- the release of the &quot;sex CD&quot;.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Hardik had said then that the BJP would be responsible, and that they would do so for electoral gain.</p>

<p>&quot;The BJP has prepared a doctored sex CD to defame me and it will be released just before the election. What else can one expect from the BJP? So just wait, watch and enjoy,&quot; Hardik had said then.</p>

<p>When he was asked how he knew about the CD, Hardik had said, &quot;This is typical of the BJP.&quot;</p>

<p><strong>The Patidar agitation</strong></p>

<p>Patel had led the massive Patidar agitation in the state in 2015.</p>

<p>The Patidars had been asking for reservations for the community in government jobs and educational institutions.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Congress has since been courting Patel, who has said that he will work towards beating the BJP in the upcoming Gujarat elections.&nbsp;</p>

<p><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/congress-invites-hardik-patel-to-contest-gujarat-elections-22699" target="_blank">Also read: Congress invites Hardik Patel to contest Gujarat elections</a></p>

<p><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/gujarat-elections-cong-gives-3-quota-options-to-patidars-who-say-theyll-get-back-to-them-23775" target="_blank">Also read: Gujarat elections: Cong gives 3 quota options to Patidars who say they&#39;ll get back to them</a></p>

<p><strong>Redux</strong></p>

<p>Attempts have been made to defame Patel earlier too.</p>

<p>A sex CD was also released in 2015, with exactly the same allegation -- that it featured Hardik.<br />
&nbsp;</p>


This latest video features a man with a tonsured head relaxing on a bed with a woman and two men

A day after a sex video -- allegedly featuring Patidar leader Hardik Patel; the allegation has not been proved -- went viral on social media, another video has surfaced. Also read: Gujarat elections: Sex CD goes viral, allegation is it features Hardik Patel PTI reported that this video features a man with a tonsured head relaxing on a bed with a woman and two men. PTI added that Patel had tonsured his head in May this year along with his supporters to protest against alleged police atrocities on members of his community during the Patidar quota agitation. Patel is still to react to the second video, but he had blamed the release of the first video on the BJP. He had tweeted yesterday: ????? ?? ???? ??? ?? ??,???? ???? ???? ???? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ????????? ?? ??????? ?? ???? ?? ??? ???????? ????? ???? ??? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ???? ???? — Hardik Patel (@HardikPatel_) November 13, 2017 × ?? ???? ??????? ?? ?????? ?? ?? ???????? ????? ?? ?? ??? ?????? ???? ??????,????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ?? ??? ???? — Hardik Patel (@HardikPatel_) November 13, 2017 × Interestingly, Patel had foretold -- on November 10 -- the release of the "sex CD". Hardik had said then that the BJP would be responsible, and that they would do so for electoral gain. "The BJP has prepared a doctored sex CD to defame me and it will be released just before the election. What else can one expect from the BJP? So just wait, watch and enjoy," Hardik had said then. When he was asked how he knew about the CD, Hardik had said, "This is typical of the BJP." The Patidar agitation Patel had led the massive Patidar agitation in the state in 2015. The Patidars had been asking for reservations for the community in government jobs and educational institutions. The Congress has since been courting Patel, who has said that he will work towards beating the BJP in the upcoming Gujarat elections. Also read: Congress invites Hardik Patel to contest Gujarat elections Also read: Gujarat elections: Cong gives 3 quota options to Patidars who say they'll get back to them Redux Attempts have been made to defame Patel earlier too. A sex CD was also released in 2015, with exactly the same allegation -- that it featured Hardik.

Gujarat elections: Day after 'sex CD', another video of Hardik Patel with woman surfaces

<p>The politics of caste has always been there in Gujarat like it has existed elsewhere in the country. But never before in the last two decades has it assumed a pole position in the manner that it has in the ongoing Assembly election campaign. What makes the development more interesting is that it is neither of the two major competitors &mdash; the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party &mdash; which is the driver.</p>

<p>The thrust is being engineered by three caste leaders who are upstarts and hope to, in the process, gain a pan-State relevance. Since they have decided to oppose the BJP, the Congress has latched on to them. And, the issue is not only one of caste calculations but of caste reservations.</p>

<p>Having jumped on to the caste bandwagon, the Congress cannot now turn back. Therefore, it is busy crafting the KHAM 2.0 version in the hope that this will shut down the BJP&rsquo;s page in the State. It was in the 1980s that senior Congress leader and four-time Chief Minister Madhav Singh Solanki along with Congressman Jinabhai Darji formulated the Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim (KHAM) grouping. It served his party well.</p>

<p>The Congress won the Assembly election in 1981, bagging 156 seats &mdash; an achievement which the BJP has been straining to match. The winning formula worked for several years before the BJP took over Gujarat and reduced the KHAM phenomenon to ashes. The combination eventually lost out because it alienated the others, especially the upper castes and the influential Patidar community whom the BJP courted with success. The 2014 Lok Sabha election decimated whatever had remained of this coalition, with the BJP winning all the 26 seats on offer in the State. The new revived KHAM version includes the Patidars.</p>

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<h5>Whether it was during the 2002 communal violence or thereafter, the Patidars backed the BJP and the then Chief Minister Narendra Modi.</h5>
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<p>On the face of it, KHAM-plus-Patidar is a formidable formulation. The Patidar community represents a little over 12 per cent of the State&rsquo;s population; the Muslims comprise roughly 10 per cent, and the Adivasi community is around 15 per cent (the Scheduled Castes are eight per cent or so). The Kshatriyas in Gujarat are a mixed lot &mdash; the Koli people consider themselves as Kshatriyas, and so do a few others. But the success of KHAM 2.0 depends more on paper calculations. Will the chemistry complement the mathematics?</p>

<p>It stands to reason that the OBCs who are present beneficiaries of the reservation policy will not be amused by the demands of aspiring entrants. This could be more pronounced in the Patidar case, given that the Patidars are seen to have gained considerably over the decades, socially, educationally and economically, and are considered unworthy of the &lsquo;positive discrimination&rsquo; they now demand.</p>

<p>Additionally, if the Patidars become part of the Congress&rsquo;s KHAM 2.0, it would need a resolution of the long-standing conflict between the Patidar community and the rest, especially the main religious minority &mdash; the Muslims. Whether it was during the 2002 communal violence or thereafter, the Patidars backed the BJP and the then Chief Minister Narendra Modi.</p>

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<h5>Dissatisfaction among large sections of the traditional voters of the BJP need not automatically lead to their casting votes against the party.</h5>
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<p>It is one thing for a bunch of Patidar leaders, such as Hardik Patel and the Congress to align with each other. The real test lies in the alliance&rsquo;s acceptance among the people at the lower levels. Uttar Pradesh provides a good example. Congress&rsquo;s Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party&rsquo;s Akhilesh Yadav formed a coalition, but the understanding did not strike a chord at the local levels of the leadership. Neither was it seen as credible among the caste voters of both the groups. The Congress-SP combine faced a rout.</p>

<p>Besides, dissatisfaction among large sections of the traditional voters of the BJP need not automatically lead to their casting votes against the party. For instance, major opinion polls conducted so far in the State have noted considerable levels of unhappiness with the Government on a host of issues, including the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax and the demonetisation decision. And yet, the projected anger does not get reflected in the overall numbers the surveys projected &mdash; with the BJP doing nearly as well as it did in 2012.</p>

<p>However, none of the above arguments can be reason enough to dismiss the challenge the BJP faces in the wake the new caste coalition. The BJP cannot wish away the thought of the Congress reviving the KHAM coalition, strengthened with the addition of a good chunk of the OBCs and the Patidars. Nor can it shut its eyes to the traction that the trio of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor (OBC leader) and Jignesh Mevani (Scheduled Castes leader) has gained and their pronounced tilt in the Congress&rsquo;s favour.</p>

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<h5>Fobbing off the Hardik Patel challenge could be a different cup of tea for BJP this time, given that the Patel charge is fortified with the OBC factor and possible anti-incumbency.</h5>
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<p>Some commentators may have gone overboard in comparing their combined assault against the BJP to the India Against Corruption movement Anna Hazare had launched four years ago. But it is a fact that the three have managed to sway public opinion in their favour at least in their strongholds. Mevani seeks to make a mark in Ahmedabad and nearabout; Patel in and around Bhavnagar; and Thakor at Mehsana and the neighbourhood.</p>

<p>Saurashtra and north Gujarat are the key regions that will determine the larger Patel drift as they are dominated by the Patidar community. Together they account for more than 100 seats. In 2012, the BJP had easily overcome a stiff challenge from Keshubhai Patel who had rebelled against the party. Fobbing off the Hardik Patel challenge could be a different cup of tea for the party this time, given that the Patel charge is fortified with the OBC factor and possible anti-incumbency.</p>

<p>And yet, it would be pertinent to note the word of caution which the original architect of KHAM, Solanki, expressed two years ago. He said the Patidar agitation would eventually fizzle out &ldquo;because truth has no role in it&rdquo;. While he did not name Hardik Patel or his outfit, the inference was clear as daylight.</p>

<p>This is what the BJP hopes in, more so because it believes that the Congress is in no position to offer a credible and workable reservation formula. It may be that Solanki was out of touch with the new realities when he made that remark and that his forward caste bias was on display. But the over-zealous and newly-emerged caste leaders cannot be oblivious to the fact that glories acquired overnight can dissipate just as quickly.<br />
&nbsp;</p>


The real test of Hardik Patel's alliance with the Congress party lies in the alliance?s acceptance among the people at the lower levels.

The politics of caste has always been there in Gujarat like it has existed elsewhere in the country. But never before in the last two decades has it assumed a pole position in the manner that it has in the ongoing Assembly election campaign. What makes the development more interesting is that it is neither of the two major competitors — the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party — which is the driver. The thrust is being engineered by three caste leaders who are upstarts and hope to, in the process, gain a pan-State relevance. Since they have decided to oppose the BJP, the Congress has latched on to them. And, the issue is not only one of caste calculations but of caste reservations. Having jumped on to the caste bandwagon, the Congress cannot now turn back. Therefore, it is busy crafting the KHAM 2.0 version in the hope that this will shut down the BJP’s page in the State. It was in the 1980s that senior Congress leader and four-time Chief Minister Madhav Singh Solanki along with Congressman Jinabhai Darji formulated the Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim (KHAM) grouping. It served his party well. The Congress won the Assembly election in 1981, bagging 156 seats — an achievement which the BJP has been straining to match. The winning formula worked for several years before the BJP took over Gujarat and reduced the KHAM phenomenon to ashes. The combination eventually lost out because it alienated the others, especially the upper castes and the influential Patidar community whom the BJP courted with success. The 2014 Lok Sabha election decimated whatever had remained of this coalition, with the BJP winning all the 26 seats on offer in the State. The new revived KHAM version includes the Patidars. Whether it was during the 2002 communal violence or thereafter, the Patidars backed the BJP and the then Chief Minister Narendra Modi. × On the face of it, KHAM-plus-Patidar is a formidable formulation. The Patidar community represents a little over 12 per cent of the State’s population; the Muslims comprise roughly 10 per cent, and the Adivasi community is around 15 per cent (the Scheduled Castes are eight per cent or so). The Kshatriyas in Gujarat are a mixed lot — the Koli people consider themselves as Kshatriyas, and so do a few others. But the success of KHAM 2.0 depends more on paper calculations. Will the chemistry complement the mathematics? It stands to reason that the OBCs who are present beneficiaries of the reservation policy will not be amused by the demands of aspiring entrants. This could be more pronounced in the Patidar case, given that the Patidars are seen to have gained considerably over the decades, socially, educationally and economically, and are considered unworthy of the ‘positive discrimination’ they now demand. Additionally, if the Patidars become part of the Congress’s KHAM 2.0, it would need a resolution of the long-standing conflict between the Patidar community and the rest, especially the main religious minority — the Muslims. Whether it was during the 2002 communal violence or thereafter, the Patidars backed the BJP and the then Chief Minister Narendra Modi. Dissatisfaction among large sections of the traditional voters of the BJP need not automatically lead to their casting votes against the party. × It is one thing for a bunch of Patidar leaders, such as Hardik Patel and the Congress to align with each other. The real test lies in the alliance’s acceptance among the people at the lower levels. Uttar Pradesh provides a good example. Congress’s Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav formed a coalition, but the understanding did not strike a chord at the local levels of the leadership. Neither was it seen as credible among the caste voters of both the groups. The Congress-SP combine faced a rout. Besides, dissatisfaction among large sections of the traditional voters of the BJP need not automatically lead to their casting votes against the party. For instance, major opinion polls conducted so far in the State have noted considerable levels of unhappiness with the Government on a host of issues, including the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax and the demonetisation decision. And yet, the projected anger does not get reflected in the overall numbers the surveys projected — with the BJP doing nearly as well as it did in 2012. However, none of the above arguments can be reason enough to dismiss the challenge the BJP faces in the wake the new caste coalition. The BJP cannot wish away the thought of the Congress reviving the KHAM coalition, strengthened with the addition of a good chunk of the OBCs and the Patidars. Nor can it shut its eyes to the traction that the trio of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor (OBC leader) and Jignesh Mevani (Scheduled Castes leader) has gained and their pronounced tilt in the Congress’s favour. Fobbing off the Hardik Patel challenge could be a different cup of tea for BJP this time, given that the Patel charge is fortified with the OBC factor and possible anti-incumbency. × Some commentators may have gone overboard in comparing their combined assault against the BJP to the India Against Corruption movement Anna Hazare had launched four years ago. But it is a fact that the three have managed to sway public opinion in their favour at least in their strongholds. Mevani seeks to make a mark in Ahmedabad and nearabout; Patel in and around Bhavnagar; and Thakor at Mehsana and the neighbourhood. Saurashtra and north Gujarat are the key regions that will determine the larger Patel drift as they are dominated by the Patidar community. Together they account for more than 100 seats. In 2012, the BJP had easily overcome a stiff challenge from Keshubhai Patel who had rebelled against the party. Fobbing off the Hardik Patel challenge could be a different cup of tea for the party this time, given that the Patel charge is fortified with the OBC factor and possible anti-incumbency. And yet, it would be pertinent to note the word of caution which the original architect of KHAM, Solanki, expressed two years ago. He said the Patidar agitation would eventually fizzle out “because truth has no role in it”. While he did not name Hardik Patel or his outfit, the inference was clear as daylight. This is what the BJP hopes in, more so because it believes that the Congress is in no position to offer a credible and workable reservation formula. It may be that Solanki was out of touch with the new realities when he made that remark and that his forward caste bias was on display. But the over-zealous and newly-emerged caste leaders cannot be oblivious to the fact that glories acquired overnight can dissipate just as quickly.

Gujarat election: Hardik Patel's glory may fizzle out

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