The MHA has reportedly sent a notice to Congress president Rahul Gandhi after Subramanian Swamy's representation in which the BJP Rajya Sabha MP claimed that Rahul Gandhi was a British citizen.So far, there hasn't been an official statement from an MHA spokesperson.

India Election Watch: Double whammy for Rahul Gandhi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a veiled attack on Congress while addressing a rally in Bihar’s Muzaffarpur on Tuesday. Watch this video to know more.

India Election Watch: PM Modi hits out at Opposition in Bihar

Rally roster for top leaders for April 30, 2019. Watch more to know.

India Election Watch: Rally roster for top leaders for April 30, 2019

This segment of India Election Watch brings to you top election headlines of the day.

India Election Watch: Watch top election stories

Watch this segment of India Election Watch for latest updates of India Election as on 26th April 2019.

India Election Watch; 26th April 2019

BJP's Om Birla and Congress' Ramnarayan Meena will be up in the key contest in Kota constituency. In the 4th phase, a total of 71 seats across 8 states will witness Lok Sabha election 2019.

WION Gravitas: Big ticket battles in phase 4

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is holding a grand roadshow in Varanasi, a day before he files the nomination papers from the Lok Sabha seat. Watch this video to know more.

WION Gravitas: PM Modi holds mega roadshow in Varanasi

Congress on Thursday ended all speculation around party general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra contesting Lok Sabha Election from Varanasi constituency. Watch this video to know more.

WION Gravitas: No Modi vs Priyanka in Varanasi as Congress names Ajay Rai as its candidate

In politics, a strong challenge is never received lightly and if it comes across as a fake call, then the person is not taken seriously thereafter.

Priyanka Gandhi by maintaining the suspense on her candidature from Varanasi’s Lok Sabha seat has made a serious error which she must avoid in future or her image would coalesce into a politician who is all thunder sans rain.&nbsp;

In past, politicians like Arjun Singh and Sharad Pawar suffered the same fate. After a point in time, none of them was taken seriously as contenders in Delhi. Similarly, it may boomerang in the long run for Priyanka Gandhi too.&nbsp;

She allowed Congress to gain space in media but ended up giving a handle to BJP in the last 4 phases of elections.

Henceforth, the attack on Congress would be brutal and direct. Priyanka Gandhi will be attacked for not having a stomach for a strong political fight.&nbsp;

What prompted Priyanka to keep people guessing remains a mystery but even Congress party president Rahul Gandhi did nothing to clear the fog. He participated in it by stating that he would like to keep the suspense on. It did not work. It fuelled the expectations which were not met, eventually, disappointing many.

The issue is as to what was the thinking behind keeping the suspense on? Did Congress develop cold feet in the end? Did &nbsp;Rahul Gandhi overrule her on the ground that she cannot give a fight to Narendra Modi and her loss would affect both party and her career? &nbsp;Lastly, why did it take Congress a month to realise that Modi is unbeatable in Varanasi? Was it not visible right at the start of the election campaign? Did a real possibility exist on the ground to defeat Modi? My take is that no such circumstances ever existed but even then Priyanka Gandhi Vadra sought suggestions from her constituents during her meeting in Amethi and Raebareli on fighting from Varanasi. 
 
Whatever may be the real reason, it is not available to media. In its absence, BJP will make Priyanka’s exit an electoral issue. BJP now can go to town shouting that Priyanka Vadra shied away from the big battle of Uttar Pradesh.

The discourse will be shifted from her charismatic appeal and being natural to her inability to stand up to a strong challenge. This will invite a focus on the top leadership of the Congress and fuel discourse that ‘family’ &nbsp;cannot look beyond safe seats. It will also make Gandhi's look less serious in public discussion. Priyanka in 2012 had once said, "Main Aaun Kya." She did not. It has happened again.&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp;

In politics, a strong challenge is never received lightly and if it comes across as a fake call, then the person is not taken seriously thereafter. Priyanka Gandhi by maintaining the suspense on her candidature from Varanasi’s Lok Sabha seat has made a serious error which she must avoid in future or her image would coalesce into a politician who is all thunder sans rain.

In politics, a strong challenge is never received lightly and if it comes across as a fake call, then the person is not taken seriously thereafter. Priyanka Gandhi by maintaining the suspense on her candidature from Varanasi’s Lok Sabha seat has made a serious error which she must avoid in future or her image would coalesce into a politician who is all thunder sans rain. In past, politicians like Arjun Singh and Sharad Pawar suffered the same fate. After a point in time, none of them was taken seriously as contenders in Delhi. Similarly, it may boomerang in the long run for Priyanka Gandhi too. She allowed Congress to gain space in media but ended up giving a handle to BJP in the last 4 phases of elections. Henceforth, the attack on Congress would be brutal and direct. Priyanka Gandhi will be attacked for not having a stomach for a strong political fight. What prompted Priyanka to keep people guessing remains a mystery but even Congress party president Rahul Gandhi did nothing to clear the fog. He participated in it by stating that he would like to keep the suspense on. It did not work. It fuelled the expectations which were not met, eventually, disappointing many. The issue is as to what was the thinking behind keeping the suspense on? Did Congress develop cold feet in the end? Did Rahul Gandhi overrule her on the ground that she cannot give a fight to Narendra Modi and her loss would affect both party and her career? Lastly, why did it take Congress a month to realise that Modi is unbeatable in Varanasi? Was it not visible right at the start of the election campaign? Did a real possibility exist on the ground to defeat Modi? My take is that no such circumstances ever existed but even then Priyanka Gandhi Vadra sought suggestions from her constituents during her meeting in Amethi and Raebareli on fighting from Varanasi. Whatever may be the real reason, it is not available to media. In its absence, BJP will make Priyanka’s exit an electoral issue. BJP now can go to town shouting that Priyanka Vadra shied away from the big battle of Uttar Pradesh. The discourse will be shifted from her charismatic appeal and being natural to her inability to stand up to a strong challenge. This will invite a focus on the top leadership of the Congress and fuel discourse that ‘family’ cannot look beyond safe seats. It will also make Gandhi's look less serious in public discussion. Priyanka in 2012 had once said, "Main Aaun Kya." She did not. It has happened again. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Disappointing many, Priyanka Gandhi's suspense game gives BJP a political handle

It’s now official, finally. There will be no alliance between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi. This is a setback for both the parties since they now have to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party individually. The BJP had swept all the seven seats on offer in 2014 and is sitting pretty now, given the division of its anti-votes.&nbsp; 
 
The failure to strike an alliance is a reflection of the larger problems that the opposition faces in formulating a coalition to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party at the national level. &nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
After various aborted attempts at a national-level alliance, there had been a realisation that the most pragmatic way to prevent the BJP from retaining power was to form state-level alliances.&nbsp;

Thus, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party came together in Maharashtra, the Congress and the National Conference structured a deal in Jammu &amp; Kashmir, the JD (S) and the Congress maintained their partnership in Karnataka despite problems, the Congress struck a coalition with the DMK in Tamil Nadu, and the Samajwadi Party and the BSP, otherwise bitterly opposed to each other, aligned in Uttar Pradesh. It was expected that, along the same lines, the AAP and the Congress would join hands in Delhi. The idea was to somehow short-circuit Modi and his party and work out an arrangement post-poll results. &nbsp;

The manner in which the situation unfolded over the weeks in Delhi does no credit to either the Congress or the AAP. All through this time, conflicting signals were sent out, giving the impression that neither of them was approaching the challenge with maturity. But the AAP came out worse because it was seen as the more desperate party to reach an understanding. 
 
It was repeatedly snubbed by the Congress and yet it continued to send feelers. Once Sheila Dikshit became Delhi’s Congress, it became near certain that no deal would be made. Dikshit was vehemently opposed to an understanding with the AAP, given the history of conflict between her and AAP supremo and Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. Her lobby made it known to the high command that the party would be better off fighting alone. There were two reasons for this stand. The first was that the Congress is expecting a surge in its popularity as compared to 2014 and wanted to cash in on it, without surrendering seats to an alliance partner. The second was that &nbsp;Dikshit and her people were worried about the adverse public reaction to an AAP-Congress partnership — after all, the AAP was born out of an anti-corruption movement directed against a Congress-led regime at the Centre. &nbsp;

Despite her stature, Dikshit’s opinion may well have been ignored, had the AAP not insisted on an understanding with the Congress for Haryana as part of the Delhi deal. The Congress was in no mood to accommodate Kejriwal’s party in the neighbouring state because it saw no political gain for itself since the AAP has only a scattered presence in Haryana.&nbsp;

The Congress also realised that Kejriwal was seeking to spread his wings by riding piggyback on the Congress and eventually weakening its presence in those regions. &nbsp;

It appears from media reports that Congress president Rahul Gandhi favoured an alliance with the AAP in Delhi, and his point man PC Chacko was burning the midnight oil to make this happen. But Chacko had come up against a resolute Dikshit — though, for the record, the former Chief Minister said she would abide by the high command’s final decision. &nbsp;

That said, the fact is that Congress has seen itself pushed out of coalition arrangements in a few key states. In Uttar Pradesh, which sends the highest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha, it was kept out of the SP-BSP-RLD combine. It has failed to stitch an alliance with regional players in Haryana. Its understanding with Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP in the Telangana state polls has collapsed, both in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.

And it could not reach an agreement with the Left Front in West Bengal to take on an entrenched Trinamool Congress and a resurgent BJP. To add to its woes, the Congress has been pushed down the pecking order in the past years by the BJP even in states where it had been an important opposition — such as in Odisha and West Bengal, and even the North-East where it has not been able to work out deals with powerful regional outfits to take on the BJP and its allies who are part of the North-East Democratic Alliance. &nbsp;

With a three-way contest now certain in Delhi, the major contenders have decided to play it safe, more or less banking on tested candidates. While the AAP has projected most of its senior faces, the BJP has made only slight changes, such as including cricketer Gautam Gambhir as a candidate. The Congress too has relied on the old faces. If the BJP wins resoundingly, the AAP and the Congress will blame each other for their rout. If the BJP is contained, both will seek to corner the credit to themselves. &nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

It’s now official, finally. There will be no alliance between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi. This is a setback for both the parties since they now have to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party individually.

It’s now official, finally. There will be no alliance between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi. This is a setback for both the parties since they now have to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party individually. The BJP had swept all the seven seats on offer in 2014 and is sitting pretty now, given the division of its anti-votes. The failure to strike an alliance is a reflection of the larger problems that the opposition faces in formulating a coalition to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party at the national level. After various aborted attempts at a national-level alliance, there had been a realisation that the most pragmatic way to prevent the BJP from retaining power was to form state-level alliances. Thus, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party came together in Maharashtra, the Congress and the National Conference structured a deal in Jammu & Kashmir, the JD (S) and the Congress maintained their partnership in Karnataka despite problems, the Congress struck a coalition with the DMK in Tamil Nadu, and the Samajwadi Party and the BSP, otherwise bitterly opposed to each other, aligned in Uttar Pradesh. It was expected that, along the same lines, the AAP and the Congress would join hands in Delhi. The idea was to somehow short-circuit Modi and his party and work out an arrangement post-poll results. The manner in which the situation unfolded over the weeks in Delhi does no credit to either the Congress or the AAP. All through this time, conflicting signals were sent out, giving the impression that neither of them was approaching the challenge with maturity. But the AAP came out worse because it was seen as the more desperate party to reach an understanding. It was repeatedly snubbed by the Congress and yet it continued to send feelers. Once Sheila Dikshit became Delhi’s Congress, it became near certain that no deal would be made. Dikshit was vehemently opposed to an understanding with the AAP, given the history of conflict between her and AAP supremo and Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. Her lobby made it known to the high command that the party would be better off fighting alone. There were two reasons for this stand. The first was that the Congress is expecting a surge in its popularity as compared to 2014 and wanted to cash in on it, without surrendering seats to an alliance partner. The second was that Dikshit and her people were worried about the adverse public reaction to an AAP-Congress partnership — after all, the AAP was born out of an anti-corruption movement directed against a Congress-led regime at the Centre. Despite her stature, Dikshit’s opinion may well have been ignored, had the AAP not insisted on an understanding with the Congress for Haryana as part of the Delhi deal. The Congress was in no mood to accommodate Kejriwal’s party in the neighbouring state because it saw no political gain for itself since the AAP has only a scattered presence in Haryana. The Congress also realised that Kejriwal was seeking to spread his wings by riding piggyback on the Congress and eventually weakening its presence in those regions. It appears from media reports that Congress president Rahul Gandhi favoured an alliance with the AAP in Delhi, and his point man PC Chacko was burning the midnight oil to make this happen. But Chacko had come up against a resolute Dikshit — though, for the record, the former Chief Minister said she would abide by the high command’s final decision. That said, the fact is that Congress has seen itself pushed out of coalition arrangements in a few key states. In Uttar Pradesh, which sends the highest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha, it was kept out of the SP-BSP-RLD combine. It has failed to stitch an alliance with regional players in Haryana. Its understanding with Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP in the Telangana state polls has collapsed, both in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. And it could not reach an agreement with the Left Front in West Bengal to take on an entrenched Trinamool Congress and a resurgent BJP. To add to its woes, the Congress has been pushed down the pecking order in the past years by the BJP even in states where it had been an important opposition — such as in Odisha and West Bengal, and even the North-East where it has not been able to work out deals with powerful regional outfits to take on the BJP and its allies who are part of the North-East Democratic Alliance. With a three-way contest now certain in Delhi, the major contenders have decided to play it safe, more or less banking on tested candidates. While the AAP has projected most of its senior faces, the BJP has made only slight changes, such as including cricketer Gautam Gambhir as a candidate. The Congress too has relied on the old faces. If the BJP wins resoundingly, the AAP and the Congress will blame each other for their rout. If the BJP is contained, both will seek to corner the credit to themselves. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Alliance fallout: If BJP wins in Delhi, AAP and Congress will blame each other for their rout

BJP has won all elections in Gujarat since 1998. Will Modi Magic reap rewards in 2019?

IEW: Will the BJP Sweep Gujarat ?

Senior Aam Aadmi Party leader Gopal Rai on Thursday reacted over the collapse of an alliance with Congress in Delhi for the Lok Sabha polls.&nbsp;

Rai stated that AAP had made one last effort but can't understand why Congress stepped back.

"We had made one last effort, Sanjay Singh ji held talks, but can't understand that after almost finalizing the matter and seat sharing why the Congress stepped back last evening," Rai told media today.&nbsp;

The Lok Sabha alliance between Aam Aadmi Party and Congress party in Delhi <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/alliance-with-congress-in-delhi-has-been-called-off-aap-leader-sanjay-singh-211214">was called off on Wednesday</a>, AAP leader Sanjay Singh told media.&nbsp;

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
Senior AAP leader Gopal Rai on alliance with Congress: We had made one last effort, Sanjay Singh ji held talks, but can't understand that after almost finalizing the matter and seat sharing why the Congress stepped back last evening <a href="https://t.co/Q2crRUW0Wo">pic.twitter.com/Q2crRUW0Wo</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1118826114246422529?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 18, 2019</a></blockquote>
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As per reports, the alliance was called-off following a disagreement over tie-up in Haryana and Delhi, news agency PTI reported quoting Singh.&nbsp;

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and Congress chief Rahul Gandhi have lately been in a flip-flop over the much-anticipated alliance in Delhi for Lok Sabha polls.&nbsp;

The Congress Tuesday asserted that it has shown a "big heart" by agreeing to form an alliance with the AAP in Delhi and said the ball is now in the court of the Arvind Kejriwal-led party to take a decision.

A day after Congress president Rahul Gandhi and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal indulged in a public spat over the issue, the grand old party said it has already offered AAP four seats in the national capital and now the decision has to be taken by it.

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on Monday reacted over Congress chief Rahul Gandhi's remark wherein he accuses Kejriwal of taking a U-turns on an alliance in Delhi.

"What U-turn?" tweets Kejriwal adding that talks are still going on.&nbsp;

"Your tweet exhibits that you are not interested in an alliance, I am sad that you are indulging in just giving out statements," Kejriwal's tweet read.&nbsp;

Senior Aam Aadmi Party leader Gopal Rai on Thursday reacted over the collapse of an alliance with Congress in Delhi for the Lok Sabha polls. Rai stated that AAP had made one last effort but can't understand why Congress stepped back.

Senior Aam Aadmi Party leader Gopal Rai on Thursday reacted over the collapse of an alliance with Congress in Delhi for the Lok Sabha polls. Rai stated that AAP had made one last effort but can't understand why Congress stepped back. "We had made one last effort, Sanjay Singh ji held talks, but can't understand that after almost finalizing the matter and seat sharing why the Congress stepped back last evening," Rai told media today. The Lok Sabha alliance between Aam Aadmi Party and Congress party in Delhi was called off on Wednesday, AAP leader Sanjay Singh told media. Senior AAP leader Gopal Rai on alliance with Congress: We had made one last effort, Sanjay Singh ji held talks, but can't understand that after almost finalizing the matter and seat sharing why the Congress stepped back last evening pic.twitter.com/Q2crRUW0Wo — ANI (@ANI) April 18, 2019 × As per reports, the alliance was called-off following a disagreement over tie-up in Haryana and Delhi, news agency PTI reported quoting Singh. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and Congress chief Rahul Gandhi have lately been in a flip-flop over the much-anticipated alliance in Delhi for Lok Sabha polls. The Congress Tuesday asserted that it has shown a "big heart" by agreeing to form an alliance with the AAP in Delhi and said the ball is now in the court of the Arvind Kejriwal-led party to take a decision. A day after Congress president Rahul Gandhi and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal indulged in a public spat over the issue, the grand old party said it has already offered AAP four seats in the national capital and now the decision has to be taken by it. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on Monday reacted over Congress chief Rahul Gandhi's remark wherein he accuses Kejriwal of taking a U-turns on an alliance in Delhi. "What U-turn?" tweets Kejriwal adding that talks are still going on. "Your tweet exhibits that you are not interested in an alliance, I am sad that you are indulging in just giving out statements," Kejriwal's tweet read.

Don't understand why did Congress step back: AAP on alliance in Delhi

Watch this segment of India Election Watch for latest updates of India Election as on 16th April 2019.

India Election Watch; 16th April 2019

In this edition of WION's Know Your Candidate, we feature National Conference President Dr Farooq Abdullah. Know more about her by watching this video.

India Election Watch: Know Your Candidate, who is Farooq Abdullah?

Actor-turned-politician Shatrughan Sinha's wife Poonam Sinha joined the Samajwadi Party on Tuesday. The development was confirmed on Twitter by the Samajwadi Party.

India Election Watch: Shatrughan Sinha's wife Poonam Sinha joins Samajwadi Party

Watch this segment of India Election Watch for latest updates of India Election as on 15th April, 2019.

India Election Watch; 15th April 2019

Voting in the first of seven rounds is being held in 91 parliament constituencies across 20 states and federally administered regions. There are 543 seats at stake. The election is spread over 39 days, with the final phase on May 19 and the result announced four days later.

Big numbers turn out for first day of India's general election

I am cynical/practical/experienced enough to know that pre-election opinion polls can go quite wrong for at least three reasons. Voters may not truly reveal their minds and/or change their minds close to polling day.&nbsp;

The sampling methodology may go wrong or converting vote shares based on sample surveys into seats can get tricky. Last but not the least, media organisations carrying out opinion poll results in league with pollster organisations can add a bit of spice to suit their own priorities.

After discounting for all this, I do believe that in the general elections that are now underway, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has reached a point where it will certainly not get a majority of its own like it did in 2014, and may also not be entirely home even with its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners.

One TV news channel that is visibly, loudly and consistently supportive of the BJP sees the NDA tally at 279, just four ahead of the half-way mark. An average of all opinion polls this week gives the NDA 277 seats in the Lok Sabha.&nbsp;

There are as many as 167 "marginal" seats where close contests will decide winners in the 543-member Lok Sabha.

It is time to ask some what-if questions. My guess is that in a scenario where the NDA is short of a clear majority, three leaders from the south will become important: Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janata Dal from Odisha, Kalvakuntla Chandrashekhar Rao of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy from the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh.&nbsp;

(If the Tropic of Cancer is seen as the dividing line between northern and southern India, Odisha, which is to the southeast, certainly falls in the south. It is also definitely south of the Vindhya mountain range, the traditional threshold to separate the south from the north.)

KCR, as the Telangana Chief Minister is called, is officially part of the 'Mahagatbandhan' (grand alliance) against Modi and will be needed by the BJP only if there is a significant late swing against it. With Telangana still in its honeymoon phase after he led a decades-old movement to carve the state out of the undivided Andhra Pradesh, he is perhaps the strongest ruling CM in India today, not counting Pawan Chamling of Sikkim. KCR's pro-farmer programmes are considered a role model for the rest of India.

Patnaik has been maintaining a studied equidistance from the BJP and the Congress and has had a phenomenal run in his state, having won four terms in a row to be the Odisha Chief Minister since the year 2000. His development efforts are part of the national folklore.

Jagan Reddy, only 46 years old, is yet to taste power but is seen as the front-runner in an anti-incumbency mood against Andhra CM N Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP). He announced last week he had no ill-will against the Congress, from which his party broke off, even as he maintains that he favours anyone who grants special status to Andhra under an arrangement made when Telangana was carved out.

Jagan is perhaps the easiest for the BJP to woo since Naidu is already on the side of the anti-Modi alliance. KCR can be wooed in a desperate scenario. But Patnaik may be a harder nut to crack. It all depends on the exact break-up of the Lok Sabha that gets formed in the summer heat. Watch out in the coming days nice things to be said about these three gentlemen. They may be kingmakers, and they may even edge close to each other where the eventual verdict swings away from the current predictions.

(This article was originally published on Zee News. Read the <a href="https://zeenews.india.com/blogs/after-2019-lok-sabha-elections-the-kingmakers-are-likely-to-be-from-the-south-2194704.html">original article)</a>

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

I am cynical/practical/experienced enough to know that pre-election opinion polls can go quite wrong for at least three reasons. Voters may not truly reveal their minds and/or change their minds close to polling day.

I am cynical/practical/experienced enough to know that pre-election opinion polls can go quite wrong for at least three reasons. Voters may not truly reveal their minds and/or change their minds close to polling day. The sampling methodology may go wrong or converting vote shares based on sample surveys into seats can get tricky. Last but not the least, media organisations carrying out opinion poll results in league with pollster organisations can add a bit of spice to suit their own priorities. After discounting for all this, I do believe that in the general elections that are now underway, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has reached a point where it will certainly not get a majority of its own like it did in 2014, and may also not be entirely home even with its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners. One TV news channel that is visibly, loudly and consistently supportive of the BJP sees the NDA tally at 279, just four ahead of the half-way mark. An average of all opinion polls this week gives the NDA 277 seats in the Lok Sabha. There are as many as 167 "marginal" seats where close contests will decide winners in the 543-member Lok Sabha. It is time to ask some what-if questions. My guess is that in a scenario where the NDA is short of a clear majority, three leaders from the south will become important: Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janata Dal from Odisha, Kalvakuntla Chandrashekhar Rao of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy from the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh. (If the Tropic of Cancer is seen as the dividing line between northern and southern India, Odisha, which is to the southeast, certainly falls in the south. It is also definitely south of the Vindhya mountain range, the traditional threshold to separate the south from the north.) KCR, as the Telangana Chief Minister is called, is officially part of the 'Mahagatbandhan' (grand alliance) against Modi and will be needed by the BJP only if there is a significant late swing against it. With Telangana still in its honeymoon phase after he led a decades-old movement to carve the state out of the undivided Andhra Pradesh, he is perhaps the strongest ruling CM in India today, not counting Pawan Chamling of Sikkim. KCR's pro-farmer programmes are considered a role model for the rest of India. Patnaik has been maintaining a studied equidistance from the BJP and the Congress and has had a phenomenal run in his state, having won four terms in a row to be the Odisha Chief Minister since the year 2000. His development efforts are part of the national folklore. Jagan Reddy, only 46 years old, is yet to taste power but is seen as the front-runner in an anti-incumbency mood against Andhra CM N Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP). He announced last week he had no ill-will against the Congress, from which his party broke off, even as he maintains that he favours anyone who grants special status to Andhra under an arrangement made when Telangana was carved out. Jagan is perhaps the easiest for the BJP to woo since Naidu is already on the side of the anti-Modi alliance. KCR can be wooed in a desperate scenario. But Patnaik may be a harder nut to crack. It all depends on the exact break-up of the Lok Sabha that gets formed in the summer heat. Watch out in the coming days nice things to be said about these three gentlemen. They may be kingmakers, and they may even edge close to each other where the eventual verdict swings away from the current predictions. (This article was originally published on Zee News. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

After 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the kingmakers are likely to be from the south

Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray on Tuesday said his party and the BJP are bound by Hindutva and the two decided to enter into a pre-poll alliance after overcoming differences that soured their ties in the past. In an interview to Sena MP Sanjay Raut in party mouthpiece ‘Saamana’, Thackeray said he agreed to the alliance after BJP president Amit Shah came to him twice to sort out the issues.

The Sena, which has often been critical of the BJP, its leadership and policies of the NDA government, entered into a seat-sharing pact with the ruling party recently. The BJP and Sena agreed to contest 25 and 23 seats, respectively, in Maharashtra which has 48 Lok Sabha constituencies. “…You ask me why did we agree to an alliance again. The whole world is a witness. BJP president Amit Shah came to me not once, but twice. And when the alliance was charted out, we put forth the problems of people. Even the chief minister was present when all this happened,” Thackeray said.

Shah wanted the sourness between both the parties to end, he said, adding he also agreed to the BJP chief’s views. To another query, Thackeray said in the course of discussions, the issues that caused the sourness between the two saffron parties were “ironed out”. “Like before, Hindutva is the thread that binds the BJP and the Sena together,” he asserted. He also hit out at the opposition parties, saying if they come to power, they would “quarrel” for the prime minister’s post as they lack a leader to bind them together.

The way the opposition parties have come together now ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, they had made a similar move after the Emergency — since there was immense anger among people — and formed the Janata government which lasted for 22 months, he noted. “Then they at least had a face in Jayaprakash Narayan.

Now, there is no face to bind the opposition in the country. If the opposition comes to power, there will be quarrelling among them for the prime minister’s post,” he claimed. “We (Sena and BJP) have Hindutva as a common thread. Hindutva is nationalism,” said Thackeray, whose party is an ally of the BJP at the Centre and in Maharashtra.

To a query on BJP veteran L K Advani, Thackeray said during the last five-ten years of his father late Bal Thackeray’s life, the younger generation took over the Sena and the patriarch guided them, but intervened and spoke only when it was necessary. “Change is a natural process. But it doesn’t mean you forget them after making them retire. You have to be forever grateful to them. Because, the Sena supremo, Atalji, Advaniji sowed the seeds in an extremely difficult environment. They risked their lives in spreading Hindutva,” he said.

Asked if he stood by his earlier statement that the Sena rotted in 25 years of alliance with the BJP, Thackeray said his father extensively travelled across Maharashtra to spread his party. “However, we became inattentive after the alliance (with BJP). This carelessness is no more there. Spreading of one’s ideology is not a crime,” he said. “Should I keep the Sena limited to the seats which we received as part of the alliance formula? Should we not take our party to other places as well? Because Sena is not a party but an ideology,” the 58-year-old leader said. Asked if he had also become a “chowkidar” after a tie-up with the BJP, Thackeray said he was just a common man. “I am a Shiv Sainik. I don’t need to be separately called a chowkidar.

A soldier is a soldier who safeguards the common man and fights for their rights. I don’t need to separately become a chowkidar,” he said. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently added “chowkidar” to his Twitter handle profile and asked people to take the #MainBhiChowkidar pledge against corruption. Several BJP leaders and ministers later followed suit.

Asked if the Sena will get a better share in portfolio allocation after the Lok Sabha polls, Thackeray said maintaining relations was the responsibility of both the alliance partners. But, the first priority was to win the elections and the opposition, however weak, cannot be ignored, he added. On the leadership of Congress president Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, Thackeray said he does not have personal enmity against anyone.

“Since they are both younger to me, I look at them as kids. Both these kids are trying to find stability in the present environment. We will know about their success and failure later. However, I don’t see a specific shape of his (Rahul Gandhi’s) leadership,” he said.

Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray on Tuesday said his party and the BJP are bound by Hindutva and the two decided to enter into a pre-poll alliance after overcoming differences that soured their ties in the past.

Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray on Tuesday said his party and the BJP are bound by Hindutva and the two decided to enter into a pre-poll alliance after overcoming differences that soured their ties in the past. In an interview to Sena MP Sanjay Raut in party mouthpiece ‘Saamana’, Thackeray said he agreed to the alliance after BJP president Amit Shah came to him twice to sort out the issues. The Sena, which has often been critical of the BJP, its leadership and policies of the NDA government, entered into a seat-sharing pact with the ruling party recently. The BJP and Sena agreed to contest 25 and 23 seats, respectively, in Maharashtra which has 48 Lok Sabha constituencies. “…You ask me why did we agree to an alliance again. The whole world is a witness. BJP president Amit Shah came to me not once, but twice. And when the alliance was charted out, we put forth the problems of people. Even the chief minister was present when all this happened,” Thackeray said. Shah wanted the sourness between both the parties to end, he said, adding he also agreed to the BJP chief’s views. To another query, Thackeray said in the course of discussions, the issues that caused the sourness between the two saffron parties were “ironed out”. “Like before, Hindutva is the thread that binds the BJP and the Sena together,” he asserted. He also hit out at the opposition parties, saying if they come to power, they would “quarrel” for the prime minister’s post as they lack a leader to bind them together. The way the opposition parties have come together now ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, they had made a similar move after the Emergency — since there was immense anger among people — and formed the Janata government which lasted for 22 months, he noted. “Then they at least had a face in Jayaprakash Narayan. Now, there is no face to bind the opposition in the country. If the opposition comes to power, there will be quarrelling among them for the prime minister’s post,” he claimed. “We (Sena and BJP) have Hindutva as a common thread. Hindutva is nationalism,” said Thackeray, whose party is an ally of the BJP at the Centre and in Maharashtra. To a query on BJP veteran L K Advani, Thackeray said during the last five-ten years of his father late Bal Thackeray’s life, the younger generation took over the Sena and the patriarch guided them, but intervened and spoke only when it was necessary. “Change is a natural process. But it doesn’t mean you forget them after making them retire. You have to be forever grateful to them. Because, the Sena supremo, Atalji, Advaniji sowed the seeds in an extremely difficult environment. They risked their lives in spreading Hindutva,” he said. Asked if he stood by his earlier statement that the Sena rotted in 25 years of alliance with the BJP, Thackeray said his father extensively travelled across Maharashtra to spread his party. “However, we became inattentive after the alliance (with BJP). This carelessness is no more there. Spreading of one’s ideology is not a crime,” he said. “Should I keep the Sena limited to the seats which we received as part of the alliance formula? Should we not take our party to other places as well? Because Sena is not a party but an ideology,” the 58-year-old leader said. Asked if he had also become a “chowkidar” after a tie-up with the BJP, Thackeray said he was just a common man. “I am a Shiv Sainik. I don’t need to be separately called a chowkidar. A soldier is a soldier who safeguards the common man and fights for their rights. I don’t need to separately become a chowkidar,” he said. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently added “chowkidar” to his Twitter handle profile and asked people to take the #MainBhiChowkidar pledge against corruption. Several BJP leaders and ministers later followed suit. Asked if the Sena will get a better share in portfolio allocation after the Lok Sabha polls, Thackeray said maintaining relations was the responsibility of both the alliance partners. But, the first priority was to win the elections and the opposition, however weak, cannot be ignored, he added. On the leadership of Congress president Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, Thackeray said he does not have personal enmity against anyone. “Since they are both younger to me, I look at them as kids. Both these kids are trying to find stability in the present environment. We will know about their success and failure later. However, I don’t see a specific shape of his (Rahul Gandhi’s) leadership,” he said.

Agreed to an alliance with BJP after two visits by Amit Shah: Uddhav Thackeray

The law permits a candidate to contest from two seats, and so there is nothing irregular in Rahul Gandhi deciding to contest from two Lok Sabha constituencies. But the law is not the issue here; the issue is political in nature. From the time it became officially known that the Congress president would fight from Wayanad in Kerala, in addition to re-contesting from Amethi — from where he is the sitting Member of Parliament — his party has been trying to justify the decision using various ways. Whether that defence sounds credible is one matter, but the fact that the Congress has been pushed to the back foot should be a source of satisfaction for the Bharatiya Janata Party.&nbsp; 
 
Congress has given two broad explanations. The first is that it is not unusual for politicians to contest from two constituencies. The party has pointed to Narendra Modi fighting the 2014 Lok Sabha polls from Varanasi and Vadodara. There are many other examples too, but the Modi analogy is flawed. Leaders generally take this route to be ‘safe’, in case the feedback from one constituency is not very assuring. Modi was not a Lok Sabha MP when he decided to take the national plunge. He had 26 ‘safe’ seats in Gujarat, and thus safety could not have been a reason for his choice of Varanasi as an additional constituency.&nbsp;

The idea was to energise his party in Uttar Pradesh where once the BJP was strong but had fallen on bad times since the previous two decades. Besides, Uttar Pradesh, with 80 Lok Sabha seats, was the key to win over the Centre. We now know that the strategy worked wonderfully for the party.&nbsp; 
 
Rahul Gandhi won in 2014 with a vastly reduced margin as compared to 2009 from Amethi. And this happened when he faced a newcomer to electoral politics, Smriti Irani. It needs to be remembered that, in a show of arrogance which is characteristic of the Nehru-Gandhi family, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra had then quipped: “Irani who?” Since then, Irani has maintained close touch with the constituency, arguably visiting it more frequently than the incumbent MP. The so-called Nehru-Gandhi bastion fell to the BJP in the 2017 State elections, where the Congress could not win a single Assembly constituency. &nbsp;

Over the last five years, with the BJP regime at the Centre and later in the state, Rahul Gandhi’s constituency has benefitted from the equation. The development in the period and lack of it in the previous times despite the Congress chief being its representative is the narrative that the BJP has been relentlessly pushing in the constituency. There is an additional factor to be considered — the refusal of the SP-BSP combine to put up a candidate in the constituency. Apparently, this has been done as a token of magnanimity, and to also ensure that the anti-BJP votes do not split. But it is a double-edged sword. There is no certainty that a majority of the votes that would have gone to SP-BSP candidate will fall in the Congress’s kitty. There is a possibility that some of them might end up in the BJP’s coffer, especially if neither Mayawati nor Akhilesh campaigns for Rahul Gandhi.&nbsp;

In sum, the Congress president faces a tougher contest than even the last time, and this is probably the reason why he has chosen a ‘safe’ seat in Wayanad. How safe even that, remains to be seen, given that the Communist Party of India (Marxist), which too in the fray from that constituency, has vowed to defeat the Congress heavyweight.&nbsp;

The second explanation the Congress has given for the Wayanad choice is that the party wants to ‘bridge’ the north-south divide, carry forward Indira Gandhi’s south-bound legacy, and boost the Congress’s prospects in Kerala. The fact is that Indira Gandhi had contested from Chikmagalur in Karnataka after facing a shocking and humiliating defeat from Rae Bareli in the post-Emergency elections. Karnataka had big leaders from the ruling Janata Dal at the Centre, and yet she won because by then the Janata Party experiment had just about begun to fall apart. The narrative of the north-south divide is specious because by that logic there must have been a west-north divide too when Modi contested from Vadodara and Varanasi — and he managed to bridge it! As for boosting the Congress’s chances in the state, that, for now, remains a fond hope.&nbsp;

The fact is: The choice of Wayanad is self-explanatory, and it has nothing to do with bridging any regional divide or taking a legacy forward. According to the 2011 Census, the percentage of Muslim and Christian population taken together is over 50 per cent, and the Congress believes that the demographics provided a safe enough cushion for Rahul Gandhi to emerge victorious. As per the same Census, nearly 95 per cent of the population lives in rural regions which, the Congress calculates, can be exploited in the party’s favour. &nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.) 
&nbsp;&nbsp;

The law permits a candidate to contest from two seats, and so there is nothing irregular in Rahul Gandhi deciding to contest from two Lok Sabha constituencies. But the law is not the issue here; the issue is political in nature.

The law permits a candidate to contest from two seats, and so there is nothing irregular in Rahul Gandhi deciding to contest from two Lok Sabha constituencies. But the law is not the issue here; the issue is political in nature. From the time it became officially known that the Congress president would fight from Wayanad in Kerala, in addition to re-contesting from Amethi — from where he is the sitting Member of Parliament — his party has been trying to justify the decision using various ways. Whether that defence sounds credible is one matter, but the fact that the Congress has been pushed to the back foot should be a source of satisfaction for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Congress has given two broad explanations. The first is that it is not unusual for politicians to contest from two constituencies. The party has pointed to Narendra Modi fighting the 2014 Lok Sabha polls from Varanasi and Vadodara. There are many other examples too, but the Modi analogy is flawed. Leaders generally take this route to be ‘safe’, in case the feedback from one constituency is not very assuring. Modi was not a Lok Sabha MP when he decided to take the national plunge. He had 26 ‘safe’ seats in Gujarat, and thus safety could not have been a reason for his choice of Varanasi as an additional constituency. The idea was to energise his party in Uttar Pradesh where once the BJP was strong but had fallen on bad times since the previous two decades. Besides, Uttar Pradesh, with 80 Lok Sabha seats, was the key to win over the Centre. We now know that the strategy worked wonderfully for the party. Rahul Gandhi won in 2014 with a vastly reduced margin as compared to 2009 from Amethi. And this happened when he faced a newcomer to electoral politics, Smriti Irani. It needs to be remembered that, in a show of arrogance which is characteristic of the Nehru-Gandhi family, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra had then quipped: “Irani who?” Since then, Irani has maintained close touch with the constituency, arguably visiting it more frequently than the incumbent MP. The so-called Nehru-Gandhi bastion fell to the BJP in the 2017 State elections, where the Congress could not win a single Assembly constituency. Over the last five years, with the BJP regime at the Centre and later in the state, Rahul Gandhi’s constituency has benefitted from the equation. The development in the period and lack of it in the previous times despite the Congress chief being its representative is the narrative that the BJP has been relentlessly pushing in the constituency. There is an additional factor to be considered — the refusal of the SP-BSP combine to put up a candidate in the constituency. Apparently, this has been done as a token of magnanimity, and to also ensure that the anti-BJP votes do not split. But it is a double-edged sword. There is no certainty that a majority of the votes that would have gone to SP-BSP candidate will fall in the Congress’s kitty. There is a possibility that some of them might end up in the BJP’s coffer, especially if neither Mayawati nor Akhilesh campaigns for Rahul Gandhi. In sum, the Congress president faces a tougher contest than even the last time, and this is probably the reason why he has chosen a ‘safe’ seat in Wayanad. How safe even that, remains to be seen, given that the Communist Party of India (Marxist), which too in the fray from that constituency, has vowed to defeat the Congress heavyweight. The second explanation the Congress has given for the Wayanad choice is that the party wants to ‘bridge’ the north-south divide, carry forward Indira Gandhi’s south-bound legacy, and boost the Congress’s prospects in Kerala. The fact is that Indira Gandhi had contested from Chikmagalur in Karnataka after facing a shocking and humiliating defeat from Rae Bareli in the post-Emergency elections. Karnataka had big leaders from the ruling Janata Dal at the Centre, and yet she won because by then the Janata Party experiment had just about begun to fall apart. The narrative of the north-south divide is specious because by that logic there must have been a west-north divide too when Modi contested from Vadodara and Varanasi — and he managed to bridge it! As for boosting the Congress’s chances in the state, that, for now, remains a fond hope. The fact is: The choice of Wayanad is self-explanatory, and it has nothing to do with bridging any regional divide or taking a legacy forward. According to the 2011 Census, the percentage of Muslim and Christian population taken together is over 50 per cent, and the Congress believes that the demographics provided a safe enough cushion for Rahul Gandhi to emerge victorious. As per the same Census, nearly 95 per cent of the population lives in rural regions which, the Congress calculates, can be exploited in the party’s favour. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Lok Sabha polls 2019: Rahul Gandhi chose to contest from Wayanad because Amethi may no longer be a 'safe' seat for him

After the May 2014 victory, the Bharatiya Janata Party under the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo decided to bench its newly elected MPs of seventy years and above. None was given a ministerial berth, and the tallest among them were designated as ‘mentors’. That the so-called Margdarshak Mandal of which these veteran leaders were made members, ended up a showpiece, should not have surprised anyone, because it was an informal arrangement to register a generational shift within the party.

That shift has now been formalised with ticket distribution for the 2019 general elections. If in 2014, the senior founding members of the party contested elections, this time around they have been kept out of the electoral fray.&nbsp; 
 
LK Advani, MM Joshi, Kalraj Mishra, Shanta Kumar and Karia Munda are only three of such names that have been ‘persuaded’ to not contest. The decision is in keeping with the party’s strategy of pushing up new faces and preparing them for a longer inning in active politics as parliamentarians. It also signals curtains for the veterans who formed the backbone of the party in its earlier, formative stages. While the BJP leadership of the day has stated that these seniors had themselves expressed their desire to keep away from the electoral fray, it is obvious that some of them have not been happy with their exclusion.&nbsp;

Yet, they have little leverage in today’s BJP to cause the party any real harm.&nbsp;

There are those who had seen the writing on the wall earlier on and rebelled. Yashwant Sinha is prominent among them. After being left out of the ministry in 2014 and realising months later that there was no scope of rehabilitation, he began to speak bitterly against the present leadership, including Prime Minister Modi. That his son Jayant Sinha was taken in as a minister and given charge of important portfolios, did not work as an emollient on his wounds.&nbsp;

It would be erroneous to judge the decision of keeping the veterans out as a sign of ‘ingratitude’. With the change in time, the old has to make way for the new. it would have added to the stature of these veteran leaders had they themselves taken the initiative and declared their non-availability, and pledged to work whole-heartedly for the newer crop of leaders. Instead, they sulked and revolted. A few others, though not seventy-five plus of age, cast their lot with the seniors and regularly took potshots at the Prime Minister and Amit Shah. One such name is Shatrughan Sinha who is now firmly in the opposition camp and is slated to contest against senior BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad from the Patna Sahib seat in Bihar.&nbsp;

The Advani case is especially interesting. He has represented the Gandhinagar Lok Sabha constituency in Gujarat and won handsomely from there. It is an open secret that Amit Shah had played a stellar role in Advani’s successful bids from there, so much so that, had the BJP veteran not stepped in the constituency, he would have still won. Now, Shah will himself contest from the same seat that he had managed with aplomb for Advani. Amit Shah’s inclusion in the list of candidates has come as no surprise since it had been anticipated that ever since he became a Rajya Sabha member, he would seek to make it to the so-called lower House.&nbsp;

There was a time when Advani, along with Atal Bihari Vajpayee, had the final say in ticket distribution in the BJP. It is an indication of changed circumstances that, let alone having a say in candidate selection, Advani could not get a ticket for himself. it is truly a political sunset for him, because, even as the most prominent name in the Margdarshak Mandal, he has little role to play; indeed, the Mandal itself is a decorative item.&nbsp;

Joshi too has come to the end of his political journey. In 2014, he was displaced from Varanasi and packed off to Kanpur. He won from the latter seat by riding the Modi wave. The denial of a ticket to him had to do with his age, but the decision was also taken on the winnability factor. Joshi was not seen as a winnable candidate from the constituency — one, because the popular feedback in the region went against him, and two, because the BJP was up against the formidable SP-BSP alliance.&nbsp;

With the purge of veterans, the BJP is hoping to kill two birds with one stone. Stem anti-incumbency and project a fresh look for the party. Yashwant Sinha had sarcastically remarked that the party’s new leadership considered those above 75 years of age as “brain dead”. It remains to be seen whether the BJP’s new move turns out to be brainy.&nbsp; 
 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

After the May 2014 victory, the Bharatiya Janata Party under the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo decided to bench its newly elected MPs of seventy years and above. None was given a ministerial berth, and the tallest among them were designated as ‘mentors’.

After the May 2014 victory, the Bharatiya Janata Party under the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo decided to bench its newly elected MPs of seventy years and above. None was given a ministerial berth, and the tallest among them were designated as ‘mentors’. That the so-called Margdarshak Mandal of which these veteran leaders were made members, ended up a showpiece, should not have surprised anyone, because it was an informal arrangement to register a generational shift within the party. That shift has now been formalised with ticket distribution for the 2019 general elections. If in 2014, the senior founding members of the party contested elections, this time around they have been kept out of the electoral fray. LK Advani, MM Joshi, Kalraj Mishra, Shanta Kumar and Karia Munda are only three of such names that have been ‘persuaded’ to not contest. The decision is in keeping with the party’s strategy of pushing up new faces and preparing them for a longer inning in active politics as parliamentarians. It also signals curtains for the veterans who formed the backbone of the party in its earlier, formative stages. While the BJP leadership of the day has stated that these seniors had themselves expressed their desire to keep away from the electoral fray, it is obvious that some of them have not been happy with their exclusion. Yet, they have little leverage in today’s BJP to cause the party any real harm. There are those who had seen the writing on the wall earlier on and rebelled. Yashwant Sinha is prominent among them. After being left out of the ministry in 2014 and realising months later that there was no scope of rehabilitation, he began to speak bitterly against the present leadership, including Prime Minister Modi. That his son Jayant Sinha was taken in as a minister and given charge of important portfolios, did not work as an emollient on his wounds. It would be erroneous to judge the decision of keeping the veterans out as a sign of ‘ingratitude’. With the change in time, the old has to make way for the new. it would have added to the stature of these veteran leaders had they themselves taken the initiative and declared their non-availability, and pledged to work whole-heartedly for the newer crop of leaders. Instead, they sulked and revolted. A few others, though not seventy-five plus of age, cast their lot with the seniors and regularly took potshots at the Prime Minister and Amit Shah. One such name is Shatrughan Sinha who is now firmly in the opposition camp and is slated to contest against senior BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad from the Patna Sahib seat in Bihar. The Advani case is especially interesting. He has represented the Gandhinagar Lok Sabha constituency in Gujarat and won handsomely from there. It is an open secret that Amit Shah had played a stellar role in Advani’s successful bids from there, so much so that, had the BJP veteran not stepped in the constituency, he would have still won. Now, Shah will himself contest from the same seat that he had managed with aplomb for Advani. Amit Shah’s inclusion in the list of candidates has come as no surprise since it had been anticipated that ever since he became a Rajya Sabha member, he would seek to make it to the so-called lower House. There was a time when Advani, along with Atal Bihari Vajpayee, had the final say in ticket distribution in the BJP. It is an indication of changed circumstances that, let alone having a say in candidate selection, Advani could not get a ticket for himself. it is truly a political sunset for him, because, even as the most prominent name in the Margdarshak Mandal, he has little role to play; indeed, the Mandal itself is a decorative item. Joshi too has come to the end of his political journey. In 2014, he was displaced from Varanasi and packed off to Kanpur. He won from the latter seat by riding the Modi wave. The denial of a ticket to him had to do with his age, but the decision was also taken on the winnability factor. Joshi was not seen as a winnable candidate from the constituency — one, because the popular feedback in the region went against him, and two, because the BJP was up against the formidable SP-BSP alliance. With the purge of veterans, the BJP is hoping to kill two birds with one stone. Stem anti-incumbency and project a fresh look for the party. Yashwant Sinha had sarcastically remarked that the party’s new leadership considered those above 75 years of age as “brain dead”. It remains to be seen whether the BJP’s new move turns out to be brainy. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

L K Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi's exit from electoral fray: The old has to make way for the new

Lok Sabha elections 2019: A look at young chief ministers of India

There are broadly three categories of political migrants during the election season. The first comprises leaders that have been denied tickets by their respective parties and thus switch over to a rival camp which offers them the chance to contest. The second has leaders who have been long-time rebels waiting for the right occasion to jump ship. The third group consists of politicians that latch on to current developments other than purely political as a reason to leave their parties, even though politics remains a consideration.&nbsp;

In the present context, the first classification would feature a host of figures from all sides — for instance, sitting BJP Member of Parliament Shyama Charan Gupta, who crossed over to the Samajwadi Party after he realised that he would not get the ticket from the Bharatiya Janata Party. The second group has the likes of Kirti Azad, who for months as a sitting MP from the BJP, had criticised the party and its leadership on a variety of issues; and ‘Jay’ Panda, who came over to the BJP from the Biju Janata Dal after spending several months condemning his original party while remaining there.&nbsp;

Prominent in the third category is Tom Vadakkan, until recently a senior Congress leader, a one-time aide to Sonia Gandhi and vociferous supporter of the dynasty. He recently joined the BJP, saying he had been deeply upset by the Congress’s response to the Pulwama attack and the air strikes which were conducted inside Pakistani territory. This group also boasts of politicians from the Trinamool Congress who have migrated to the BJP, angry with West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool supremo Mamata Banerjee over her politics and the manner she has responded to issues of national security.&nbsp;

But there is a fourth classification too, which is unique in the sense that, so far, there is only one person in this list. A few days ago, senior Janata Dal (Secular) leader Danish Ali quit his party and joined the Bahujan Samaj Party. What makes the switchover stand out is his claim that he had the blessing of the senior-most JD (S) leaders, HD Deve Gowda and Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy, for his action. It is difficult to digest this contention, not just because it is unbelievable that the leadership of a party he quits would consent to his joining a different party.&nbsp;

Kumaraswamy’s remark that Danish Ali’s move was a “thoughtful political decision taken by JD (S) and BSP to win more seats in the Lok Sabha election” must be taken with a pinch of salt.&nbsp;

Only a few weeks ago, the BSP had pulled out of the coalition regime in Karnataka led by the JD(S), causing embarrassment to the JD(S). How will it help the party if Danish Ali works to expand the BSP’s based in the state where the JD(S) is already struggling to keep the alliance with the Congress going? As JD(S) leader, Danish Ali had played a significant role in getting his party and the Congress together to foil the BJP’s chances of forming a government in Karnataka after the last election had resulted in a hung Assembly. Only days before he announced his departure from the JD(S), he had met Congress president Rahul Gandhi to sort out the alliance frictions. &nbsp;

The fact is that, despite these optics, Danish Ali had begun to nurse misgivings about the Congress. He must have been as frustrated as the senior JD(S) leadership with the conduct of the senior alliance partner. HD Kumaraswamy may have reconciled to drinking the “poison” of the alliance, but Danish Ali perhaps felt choked enough to not endure the situation any further. His decision to join the BSP was more out of compulsion than choice. He could obviously not go to the Congress, and he would have been a misfit in the BJP. The Samajwadi Party had even a smaller presence in Karnataka than the BSP. Moreover, unlike the BSP, the SP was more inclined in favour of Congress. &nbsp; 
 
It is being said by him and his supporters that the development should be seen as Danish Ali’s attempt to strengthen the hands of anti-Narendra Modi forces. It is difficult to understand this line of reasoning. He brings nothing on the table for the BSP in Karnataka, not to speak of Uttar Pradesh. He is a lightweight politician in any case, and for BSP chief Mayawati, he would have mere optical value. It is possible that Danish Ali is now looking for a new place of work — Uttar Pradesh, which he has suddenly remembered is his birthplace. There is speculation that the BSP could offer him the ticket from one of the ’safer’ constituencies in the state, possibly Amroha. If that is the case, it more honestly explains Danish Ali’s decision.&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

There are broadly three categories of political migrants during the election season. The first comprises leaders that have been denied tickets by their respective parties and thus switch over to a rival camp which offers them the chance to contest.

There are broadly three categories of political migrants during the election season. The first comprises leaders that have been denied tickets by their respective parties and thus switch over to a rival camp which offers them the chance to contest. The second has leaders who have been long-time rebels waiting for the right occasion to jump ship. The third group consists of politicians that latch on to current developments other than purely political as a reason to leave their parties, even though politics remains a consideration. In the present context, the first classification would feature a host of figures from all sides — for instance, sitting BJP Member of Parliament Shyama Charan Gupta, who crossed over to the Samajwadi Party after he realised that he would not get the ticket from the Bharatiya Janata Party. The second group has the likes of Kirti Azad, who for months as a sitting MP from the BJP, had criticised the party and its leadership on a variety of issues; and ‘Jay’ Panda, who came over to the BJP from the Biju Janata Dal after spending several months condemning his original party while remaining there. Prominent in the third category is Tom Vadakkan, until recently a senior Congress leader, a one-time aide to Sonia Gandhi and vociferous supporter of the dynasty. He recently joined the BJP, saying he had been deeply upset by the Congress’s response to the Pulwama attack and the air strikes which were conducted inside Pakistani territory. This group also boasts of politicians from the Trinamool Congress who have migrated to the BJP, angry with West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool supremo Mamata Banerjee over her politics and the manner she has responded to issues of national security. But there is a fourth classification too, which is unique in the sense that, so far, there is only one person in this list. A few days ago, senior Janata Dal (Secular) leader Danish Ali quit his party and joined the Bahujan Samaj Party. What makes the switchover stand out is his claim that he had the blessing of the senior-most JD (S) leaders, HD Deve Gowda and Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy, for his action. It is difficult to digest this contention, not just because it is unbelievable that the leadership of a party he quits would consent to his joining a different party. Kumaraswamy’s remark that Danish Ali’s move was a “thoughtful political decision taken by JD (S) and BSP to win more seats in the Lok Sabha election” must be taken with a pinch of salt. Only a few weeks ago, the BSP had pulled out of the coalition regime in Karnataka led by the JD(S), causing embarrassment to the JD(S). How will it help the party if Danish Ali works to expand the BSP’s based in the state where the JD(S) is already struggling to keep the alliance with the Congress going? As JD(S) leader, Danish Ali had played a significant role in getting his party and the Congress together to foil the BJP’s chances of forming a government in Karnataka after the last election had resulted in a hung Assembly. Only days before he announced his departure from the JD(S), he had met Congress president Rahul Gandhi to sort out the alliance frictions. The fact is that, despite these optics, Danish Ali had begun to nurse misgivings about the Congress. He must have been as frustrated as the senior JD(S) leadership with the conduct of the senior alliance partner. HD Kumaraswamy may have reconciled to drinking the “poison” of the alliance, but Danish Ali perhaps felt choked enough to not endure the situation any further. His decision to join the BSP was more out of compulsion than choice. He could obviously not go to the Congress, and he would have been a misfit in the BJP. The Samajwadi Party had even a smaller presence in Karnataka than the BSP. Moreover, unlike the BSP, the SP was more inclined in favour of Congress. It is being said by him and his supporters that the development should be seen as Danish Ali’s attempt to strengthen the hands of anti-Narendra Modi forces. It is difficult to understand this line of reasoning. He brings nothing on the table for the BSP in Karnataka, not to speak of Uttar Pradesh. He is a lightweight politician in any case, and for BSP chief Mayawati, he would have mere optical value. It is possible that Danish Ali is now looking for a new place of work — Uttar Pradesh, which he has suddenly remembered is his birthplace. There is speculation that the BSP could offer him the ticket from one of the ’safer’ constituencies in the state, possibly Amroha. If that is the case, it more honestly explains Danish Ali’s decision. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Lok Sabha elections 2019: The curious case of political switchovers

Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra kicked off her party's campaign for the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh on Monday by offering prayers at the Lette Hanuman temple near Sangam.

During her three-day visit, Priyanka will cover a distance of 100-km by boat in Ganga from Allahabad to Varanasi -- the parliamentary constituency of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, hopping from one temple to another.

Her Ganga cruise is being seen by political observers as an effort to navigate her party out of a nearly three-decade long wilderness in the state.

The Congress general secretary in-charge of eastern Uttar Pradesh offered prayers on the banks of Sangam -- a confluence of rivers Ganga, Yamuna and the mythical Saraswati.

In a tweet, Priyanka recalled her memories associated with Swaraj Bhawan, where her grandmother and former prime minister Indira Gandhi was born.

"Sitting in the courtyard of Swaraj Bhawan, I can see the room where my grandmother (Indira Gandhi) was born. While putting me to sleep at night, she used to tell stories of Joan of Arc. Her words reverberate even today. She used to say -- become fearless and everything will be alright," the Congress leader said in a tweet in Hindi.

Soon after her arrival here on Sunday, Priyanka said political stagnation in Uttar Pradesh had left the state's youth, women, farmers and labourers distressed and it was her responsibility to change the politics here.

"Due to stagnation in the politics of the state, youngsters, women, farmers and labourers are worried. They want to share their pain and agony, but in the noise of political arithmetic, their voice is completely absent from the policies of the state," she said in an open letter.

Gandhi said political transformation in the state was not possible without listening to the voices of the people and sharing their pain.

"Hence, I have come to your doorstep for a 'sacha samwaad' (genuine conversation). I assure you that based on the conversation with you, we will bring transformation in politics. We will move towards solving your problems," she said in the letter.

The Congress leader said she would reach out to people through various means of transportation, including waterways, buses, train and 'padayatra' (on foot).

"River Ganga is a symbol of truth and equality. It is also a symbol of our 'Ganga-Jamuni tehzeeb' (cross culture). It does not differentiate among people. Gangaji is the lifeline of Uttar Pradesh and with her support I will reach you," Priyanka said letter read.

As part of her campaign tour, Priyanka will also visit Bhadohi and Mirzapur districts.

Polling will be held in seven phases in Uttar Pradesh from April 11 to May 19. Results will be announced on May 23.&nbsp;

Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra kicked off her party's campaign for the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh on Monday by offering prayers at the Lette Hanuman temple near Sangam.

Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra kicked off her party's campaign for the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh on Monday by offering prayers at the Lette Hanuman temple near Sangam. During her three-day visit, Priyanka will cover a distance of 100-km by boat in Ganga from Allahabad to Varanasi -- the parliamentary constituency of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, hopping from one temple to another. Her Ganga cruise is being seen by political observers as an effort to navigate her party out of a nearly three-decade long wilderness in the state. The Congress general secretary in-charge of eastern Uttar Pradesh offered prayers on the banks of Sangam -- a confluence of rivers Ganga, Yamuna and the mythical Saraswati. In a tweet, Priyanka recalled her memories associated with Swaraj Bhawan, where her grandmother and former prime minister Indira Gandhi was born. "Sitting in the courtyard of Swaraj Bhawan, I can see the room where my grandmother (Indira Gandhi) was born. While putting me to sleep at night, she used to tell stories of Joan of Arc. Her words reverberate even today. She used to say -- become fearless and everything will be alright," the Congress leader said in a tweet in Hindi. Soon after her arrival here on Sunday, Priyanka said political stagnation in Uttar Pradesh had left the state's youth, women, farmers and labourers distressed and it was her responsibility to change the politics here. "Due to stagnation in the politics of the state, youngsters, women, farmers and labourers are worried. They want to share their pain and agony, but in the noise of political arithmetic, their voice is completely absent from the policies of the state," she said in an open letter. Gandhi said political transformation in the state was not possible without listening to the voices of the people and sharing their pain. "Hence, I have come to your doorstep for a 'sacha samwaad' (genuine conversation). I assure you that based on the conversation with you, we will bring transformation in politics. We will move towards solving your problems," she said in the letter. The Congress leader said she would reach out to people through various means of transportation, including waterways, buses, train and 'padayatra' (on foot). "River Ganga is a symbol of truth and equality. It is also a symbol of our 'Ganga-Jamuni tehzeeb' (cross culture). It does not differentiate among people. Gangaji is the lifeline of Uttar Pradesh and with her support I will reach you," Priyanka said letter read. As part of her campaign tour, Priyanka will also visit Bhadohi and Mirzapur districts. Polling will be held in seven phases in Uttar Pradesh from April 11 to May 19. Results will be announced on May 23.

Priyanka Gandhi begins three-day UP visit, offers prayers at temple

The Congress party has launched its pan-India campaign for the general elections by targetting the BJP and the Narendra Modi government by holding it responsible for all the problems of the country.

The ruling BJP has responded to the Congress attack by going on the offensive and questioning the Congress culture and pointing out how it has deviated from the path shown by Mahatma Gandhi and the freedom fighters who had sacrificed their all for the cause of the nation.

Addressing a Congress rally at Adalaj village of Gandhinagar district in Gujarat after a meeting of the Congress Working Committee on Tuesday, the newly appointed Congress National Congress general secretary of eastern UP, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, said that the government was not talking about the real issues while people were being divided and hatred was being spread. She also laid stress on the need for building awareness among the people. Equating awareness with patriotism, she said that if it is used as a weapon without harming anyone, the county will become strong.

On this occasion, Congress President Rahul Gandhi took a dig at Prime Minister Modi and the BJP led NDA Government at the Centre. He referred to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) as Gabbar Singh Tax equating it with the brute character by the same name in Sholay, the much acclaimed and popular Bollywood blockbuster.

Blunting the Congress tirade against him and the BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been quick in going into the overdrive mode and calling upon influencers from all fields, including politics, industry, sports, films and other walks of life to take the lead in spreading voter awareness and value of high voting. He has expressed the hope that these elections would witness the highest ever turnout in the history of Indian elections!"

Paying tributes to Gandhi ji and all those who had marched with him to Dandi, PM Modi has shared his thoughts on the Dandi March – especially the ideals of Mahatma Gandhi and his aversion to the Congress culture on his blog. Highlighting Mahatma Gandhi's concern for the poor, Modi has said that in all aspects of his government’s work, the guiding consideration is the welfare and progress of the deprived sections but sadly, the antithesis of Gandhian thought is the Congress culture.

Modi’s argument comes like a knockout punch vis-a-vis the main opposition when he says in a matter of fact manner: “Mahatma Gandhi was a firm believer in democracy. Ironically, Congress imposed Emergency and trampled over the democratic spirit. The Congress misused Article 356 several times. If they did not like a leader, that Government was dismissed. Always eager to promote dynastic culture, Congress has no regard for democratic values. Gandhi Ji had understood the Congress culture very well, which is why he wanted the Congress disbanded, especially after 1947.”

What Modi has pointed out on his blog is already a topic of discussion on social media and also in drawing room circles and among the commoners on the street. Modi’s stock has grown manifold particularly after the air strike against the Jaish-e-Mohammed terror camps in Pakistan in the wake of the Pulwama attack. The anti-terror operation inside Pakistani territory is being treated as a turning point in the war on terror and the Government of India’s strategy to handle the Kashmir crisis.

It’s advantage Modi and the BJP at this stage when campaigning is still picking up for the Lok Sabha elections, as the Congress refuses to come on the same page with the government of India on the crucial issue of terrorism and national security.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

The Congress party has launched its pan-India campaign for the general elections by targetting the BJP and the Narendra Modi government by holding it responsible for all the problems of the country.

The Congress party has launched its pan-India campaign for the general elections by targetting the BJP and the Narendra Modi government by holding it responsible for all the problems of the country. The ruling BJP has responded to the Congress attack by going on the offensive and questioning the Congress culture and pointing out how it has deviated from the path shown by Mahatma Gandhi and the freedom fighters who had sacrificed their all for the cause of the nation. Addressing a Congress rally at Adalaj village of Gandhinagar district in Gujarat after a meeting of the Congress Working Committee on Tuesday, the newly appointed Congress National Congress general secretary of eastern UP, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, said that the government was not talking about the real issues while people were being divided and hatred was being spread. She also laid stress on the need for building awareness among the people. Equating awareness with patriotism, she said that if it is used as a weapon without harming anyone, the county will become strong. On this occasion, Congress President Rahul Gandhi took a dig at Prime Minister Modi and the BJP led NDA Government at the Centre. He referred to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) as Gabbar Singh Tax equating it with the brute character by the same name in Sholay, the much acclaimed and popular Bollywood blockbuster. Blunting the Congress tirade against him and the BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been quick in going into the overdrive mode and calling upon influencers from all fields, including politics, industry, sports, films and other walks of life to take the lead in spreading voter awareness and value of high voting. He has expressed the hope that these elections would witness the highest ever turnout in the history of Indian elections!" Paying tributes to Gandhi ji and all those who had marched with him to Dandi, PM Modi has shared his thoughts on the Dandi March – especially the ideals of Mahatma Gandhi and his aversion to the Congress culture on his blog. Highlighting Mahatma Gandhi's concern for the poor, Modi has said that in all aspects of his government’s work, the guiding consideration is the welfare and progress of the deprived sections but sadly, the antithesis of Gandhian thought is the Congress culture. Modi’s argument comes like a knockout punch vis-a-vis the main opposition when he says in a matter of fact manner: “Mahatma Gandhi was a firm believer in democracy. Ironically, Congress imposed Emergency and trampled over the democratic spirit. The Congress misused Article 356 several times. If they did not like a leader, that Government was dismissed. Always eager to promote dynastic culture, Congress has no regard for democratic values. Gandhi Ji had understood the Congress culture very well, which is why he wanted the Congress disbanded, especially after 1947.” What Modi has pointed out on his blog is already a topic of discussion on social media and also in drawing room circles and among the commoners on the street. Modi’s stock has grown manifold particularly after the air strike against the Jaish-e-Mohammed terror camps in Pakistan in the wake of the Pulwama attack. The anti-terror operation inside Pakistani territory is being treated as a turning point in the war on terror and the Government of India’s strategy to handle the Kashmir crisis. It’s advantage Modi and the BJP at this stage when campaigning is still picking up for the Lok Sabha elections, as the Congress refuses to come on the same page with the government of India on the crucial issue of terrorism and national security. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

On the issues of ideology and national security, it’s advantage Narendra Modi and BJP all the way

Former Congress president Sonia Gandhi's daughter Priyanka Gandhi Vadra officially started her career in active politics in February 2019, just a few months before general elections. Congress president Rahul Gandhi introduced her as general secretary in charge of eastern Uttar Pradesh. But the question is: Will she be a lucky charm for Congress in Uttar Pradesh?

Priyanka Gandhi is very famous in Amethi and Rae Bareli; she had campaigned during the 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha polls and Congress had won both the seats.

The eastern part of Uttar Pradesh accounts for 42 Lok Sabha seats from the sub-regions of Avadh and Purvanchal. In 2009, Congress won 21 seats in Uttar Pradesh and 15 of them were from east UP. In 2014, the tally was reduced to just two. So, Priyanka has a tough job at hand, especially because the region also includes Gorakhpur and Varanasi - the strongholds of Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, respectively.

The 2014 Lok Sabha polls saw Congress getting 10 per cent of vote share in east Uttar Pradesh and winning just two seats - it's the pocket borough of Amethi and Rae Bareli.

Even if Congress's gamble pays off and Priyanka factor works for the party, it is not going to give a boost to the number of seats it won in last Lok Sabha elections. The reason is coming together of Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). With the SP-BSP combine at play in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, going by the last vote share, the BJP and its alliance partners are likely to get 37 seats, the SP, BSP and RLD 41, and Congress will remain at two.

If Congress gets two per cent more vote share and the SP-BSP combine loses out its two per cent, it will not translate into a seat for the INC. In fact, the SP-BSP loss is likely to benefit the BJP which can get 44 seats.

If there is a gain of three per cent to Congress and loss of three per cent to SP-BSP alliance, the beneficiary again will be BJP. This will increase its seats from 37 to 46 seats, SP-BSP alliance will get 33, and INC two.

The only scenario which can work for Congress is if Priyanka is able to garner 10 per cent more votes for the party. The Congress will then get four seats, but after coming together of SP and BSP, an upward swing of 10 per cent in favour of Congress looks nearly impossible.

If we look at the past, Priyanka had promised her mother Sonia Gandhi during the 2012 assembly election a perfect 10 in Rae Bareli and Amethi (both have five assembly constituencies each). But the party couldn't even win a single seat in Amethi.

Adding to the pressure is the SP-BSP alliance. In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, even though SP won just five seats and BSP failed to win a single seat, their combined vote share of 42.12 per cent was almost equal to 42.63 per cent of BJP which won 71 seats.

The political arithmetic, caste politics and alliance challenges make the going tough for Priyanka. The Congress is banking on her charisma to revive its fortunes in Uttar Pradesh. The poll bugle has been sounded, now it remains to be seen how she tackles the tough battle of eastern UP. 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Former Congress president Sonia Gandhi's daughter Priyanka Gandhi Vadra officially started her career in active politics in February 2019, just a few months before general elections.

Former Congress president Sonia Gandhi's daughter Priyanka Gandhi Vadra officially started her career in active politics in February 2019, just a few months before general elections. Congress president Rahul Gandhi introduced her as general secretary in charge of eastern Uttar Pradesh. But the question is: Will she be a lucky charm for Congress in Uttar Pradesh? Priyanka Gandhi is very famous in Amethi and Rae Bareli; she had campaigned during the 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha polls and Congress had won both the seats. The eastern part of Uttar Pradesh accounts for 42 Lok Sabha seats from the sub-regions of Avadh and Purvanchal. In 2009, Congress won 21 seats in Uttar Pradesh and 15 of them were from east UP. In 2014, the tally was reduced to just two. So, Priyanka has a tough job at hand, especially because the region also includes Gorakhpur and Varanasi - the strongholds of Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, respectively. The 2014 Lok Sabha polls saw Congress getting 10 per cent of vote share in east Uttar Pradesh and winning just two seats - it's the pocket borough of Amethi and Rae Bareli. Even if Congress's gamble pays off and Priyanka factor works for the party, it is not going to give a boost to the number of seats it won in last Lok Sabha elections. The reason is coming together of Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). With the SP-BSP combine at play in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, going by the last vote share, the BJP and its alliance partners are likely to get 37 seats, the SP, BSP and RLD 41, and Congress will remain at two. If Congress gets two per cent more vote share and the SP-BSP combine loses out its two per cent, it will not translate into a seat for the INC. In fact, the SP-BSP loss is likely to benefit the BJP which can get 44 seats. If there is a gain of three per cent to Congress and loss of three per cent to SP-BSP alliance, the beneficiary again will be BJP. This will increase its seats from 37 to 46 seats, SP-BSP alliance will get 33, and INC two. The only scenario which can work for Congress is if Priyanka is able to garner 10 per cent more votes for the party. The Congress will then get four seats, but after coming together of SP and BSP, an upward swing of 10 per cent in favour of Congress looks nearly impossible. If we look at the past, Priyanka had promised her mother Sonia Gandhi during the 2012 assembly election a perfect 10 in Rae Bareli and Amethi (both have five assembly constituencies each). But the party couldn't even win a single seat in Amethi. Adding to the pressure is the SP-BSP alliance. In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, even though SP won just five seats and BSP failed to win a single seat, their combined vote share of 42.12 per cent was almost equal to 42.63 per cent of BJP which won 71 seats. The political arithmetic, caste politics and alliance challenges make the going tough for Priyanka. The Congress is banking on her charisma to revive its fortunes in Uttar Pradesh. The poll bugle has been sounded, now it remains to be seen how she tackles the tough battle of eastern UP. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Lok Sabha polls: Analysing the battle of east UP and the Priyanka factor

NCP chief Sharad Pawar has said he will not contest <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/lok-sabha-polls-to-stretch-out-for-over-a-month-from-april-11-to-may-19-results-on-may-23-202404">the 2019 Lok Sabha polls</a>.&nbsp;

"I thought that already two members of my family are contesting polls this time and hence I felt this is right time to take decision to not contest since I already have contested 14 times in the past," Pawar said.&nbsp;

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NCP Chief Sharad Pawar: I thought that already two members of my family are contesting polls this time and hence I felt this is right time to take decision to not contest since I already have contested 14 times in the past <a href="https://t.co/Q7ElDQqXte">pic.twitter.com/Q7ElDQqXte</a>
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Pawar is president of the Nationalist Congress Party which he founded in 1999 after breaking away from the Congress

He is currently a Rajya Sabha member of parliament, and leader of his party in the upper house.&nbsp;

Pawar has been chief minister of Maharashtra three times. He has also been a union minister of defence and agriculture.&nbsp;

Pawar was on Monday asked if he was not contesting the upcoming polls because <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/party-getting-maximum-seats-will-claim-pms-post-says-sharad-pawar-161885">he was worried he might be beaten</a>.

"I have successfully faced 14 elections. Do you think a fifteenth will deter me?" the news agency PTI quoted Pawar as replying.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

NCP chief Sharad Pawar has said he will not contest the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. "I thought that already two members of my family are contesting polls this time and hence I felt this is right time to take decision to not contest since I already have contested 14 times in the past," Pawar said.

NCP chief Sharad Pawar has said he will not contest the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. "I thought that already two members of my family are contesting polls this time and hence I felt this is right time to take decision to not contest since I already have contested 14 times in the past," Pawar said. NCP Chief Sharad Pawar: I thought that already two members of my family are contesting polls this time and hence I felt this is right time to take decision to not contest since I already have contested 14 times in the past pic.twitter.com/Q7ElDQqXte — ANI (@ANI) March 11, 2019 × Pawar is president of the Nationalist Congress Party which he founded in 1999 after breaking away from the Congress He is currently a Rajya Sabha member of parliament, and leader of his party in the upper house. Pawar has been chief minister of Maharashtra three times. He has also been a union minister of defence and agriculture. Pawar was on Monday asked if he was not contesting the upcoming polls because he was worried he might be beaten. "I have successfully faced 14 elections. Do you think a fifteenth will deter me?" the news agency PTI quoted Pawar as replying.

NCP chief Sharad Pawar says he will not contest Lok Sabha polls

Lok Sabha elections will begin on April 11 and continue for over a month till May 19 across seven phases, followed by counting of votes on May 23, the Election Commission announced Sunday, kick-starting the countdown for a mega electoral battle where the BJP will pitch for a re-election of the Modi government amid the Opposition's efforts for a united fight to unseat it.

The <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/2019-lok-sabha-elections-check-when-your-state-ut-goes-to-the-polls-202410">polling will be held on</a> April 11, April 18, April 23, April 29, May 6, May 12 and May 19 for 543 Lok Sabha seats across the country in which nearly 90 crore voters would be eligible to vote, the Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora said at a packed press conference here.

Assembly elections will also be held in Andhra Pradesh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Odisha simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls, the CEC said.&nbsp;

However, elections for Jammu and Kashmir assembly will not to be held along with the Lok Sabha polls, the EC said citing security reasons. The state has been under Governor's rule after the ruling alliance between the BJP and People's Democratic Party fell apart last year.&nbsp;

National Conference, Congress and other opposition parties slammed the decision to not hold assembly polls in J&amp;K, while opposition leaders elsewhere including in West Bengal also latched onto the EC decision to hold multi-phase elections in their states to slam the government on law and order situation.

Arora said the model code of conduct would come into immediate effect from Sunday and 10 lakhs polling stations would be set up this time as against about nine lakhs in 2014.

Among other restrictions, the model code bars the government from announcing any policy move that may impact voters' decision.

The EC said the 'voter verifiable paper audit trail' (VVPAT) will be used in all polling stations this time.

Counting of votes for all seven phases would be done on May 23, Arora said. 
 
In 2014, BJP had won 282 seats out of 543 constituencies in Lok Sabha handing a crushing defeat to the 10-year-rule of the United Progressive Alliance led by Congress.

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi will seek to retain power, the opposition is seeking to put up a spirited fight to defeat the ruling BJP.

"Best wishes to the Election Commission, all those officials and security personnel who will be on the field, across the length and breadth of India assuring smooth elections. India is very proud of the EC for assiduously organising elections for several years," Modi tweeted.

In the press briefing, Arora also reassured the nation of the EC's "solemn resolve and deep commitment to fulfil its constitutional mandate to conduct free, fair and credible elections."

He said all political advertisements on social media will need pre-certification and that the candidates will have to give details of their social media accounts to the election commission.

The CEC said 91 constituencies will go for polls in first phase, 97 in second phase, 115 in third phase, 71 in fourth, 51 in fifth, 59 in sixth and 59 in the seventh phase.&nbsp;

The election will pit the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance against mostly different opposition groupings in various states, including of Congress, Left and regional forces who are continuing to work out a grand alliance to minimise a division of votes against the Modi government.

The BJP has worked out a seat-sharing formula with some new allies and several old partners, by even making concessions in states like Bihar. However, opposition parties are yet to do so in several states.

While the NDA hopes to make history by coming back to power for a second full term, the Opposition wants to unseat the Modi government by raising questions on its performance on a host of issues, including economic growth, employment, corruption and social harmony.

Atal Bihari Vajpayee had led the NDA to back-to-back wins in 1998 and 1999 general elections but he was at the helm for only one full term.&nbsp;

After losing three assemblies last year, the BJP believes its Lok Sabha campaign is back on track following decisions like 10 per cent quota for the general category poor, money transfer to farmers and a populist budget.&nbsp;

What has injected further confidence into the NDA fold is the fronting of the nationalist plank in the poll campaign after the Indian Air Force' strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan after Pulwama terror attack, which killed 40 CRPF personnel.

The BJP has been citing 2016 surgical strikes on terror launch pads and the Balakot air strikes to assert that only a government headed by Modi will be capable of taking on Pakistan over terrorism.

Modi has already launched an aggressive campaign accusing opposition parties of coming together for the sole purpose of removing him when he is working to "remove poverty, corruption and terrorism".

He had led the NDA to a sweeping victory in 2014 as it won 336 of 543 Lok Sabha seats, reducing the incumbent Congress to its lowest total of 44 seats.

In 2014, the Lok Sabha elections were held across nine phases beginning April 7 and ending May 9. Votes were counted on May 16.

The total contestants in fray were 8,251, with an average of 15 candidates in each constituency, though deposits got forfeited for 7,000 contestants.

A total of over 55 crore voters (66.3 per cent) exercised their vote, while there were nearly 60 lakh 'NOTA' votes. A total of 668 women candidates contested, out of which 62 won.&nbsp;

Lok Sabha elections will begin on April 11 and continue for over a month till May 19 across seven phases, followed by counting of votes on May 23, the Election Commission announced Sunday, kick-starting the countdown for a mega electoral battle where the BJP will pitch for a re-election of the Modi government amid the Opposition's efforts for a united fight to unseat it.

Lok Sabha elections will begin on April 11 and continue for over a month till May 19 across seven phases, followed by counting of votes on May 23, the Election Commission announced Sunday, kick-starting the countdown for a mega electoral battle where the BJP will pitch for a re-election of the Modi government amid the Opposition's efforts for a united fight to unseat it. The polling will be held on April 11, April 18, April 23, April 29, May 6, May 12 and May 19 for 543 Lok Sabha seats across the country in which nearly 90 crore voters would be eligible to vote, the Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora said at a packed press conference here. Assembly elections will also be held in Andhra Pradesh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Odisha simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls, the CEC said. However, elections for Jammu and Kashmir assembly will not to be held along with the Lok Sabha polls, the EC said citing security reasons. The state has been under Governor's rule after the ruling alliance between the BJP and People's Democratic Party fell apart last year. National Conference, Congress and other opposition parties slammed the decision to not hold assembly polls in J&K, while opposition leaders elsewhere including in West Bengal also latched onto the EC decision to hold multi-phase elections in their states to slam the government on law and order situation. Arora said the model code of conduct would come into immediate effect from Sunday and 10 lakhs polling stations would be set up this time as against about nine lakhs in 2014. Among other restrictions, the model code bars the government from announcing any policy move that may impact voters' decision. The EC said the 'voter verifiable paper audit trail' (VVPAT) will be used in all polling stations this time. Counting of votes for all seven phases would be done on May 23, Arora said. In 2014, BJP had won 282 seats out of 543 constituencies in Lok Sabha handing a crushing defeat to the 10-year-rule of the United Progressive Alliance led by Congress. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi will seek to retain power, the opposition is seeking to put up a spirited fight to defeat the ruling BJP. "Best wishes to the Election Commission, all those officials and security personnel who will be on the field, across the length and breadth of India assuring smooth elections. India is very proud of the EC for assiduously organising elections for several years," Modi tweeted. In the press briefing, Arora also reassured the nation of the EC's "solemn resolve and deep commitment to fulfil its constitutional mandate to conduct free, fair and credible elections." He said all political advertisements on social media will need pre-certification and that the candidates will have to give details of their social media accounts to the election commission. The CEC said 91 constituencies will go for polls in first phase, 97 in second phase, 115 in third phase, 71 in fourth, 51 in fifth, 59 in sixth and 59 in the seventh phase. The election will pit the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance against mostly different opposition groupings in various states, including of Congress, Left and regional forces who are continuing to work out a grand alliance to minimise a division of votes against the Modi government. The BJP has worked out a seat-sharing formula with some new allies and several old partners, by even making concessions in states like Bihar. However, opposition parties are yet to do so in several states. While the NDA hopes to make history by coming back to power for a second full term, the Opposition wants to unseat the Modi government by raising questions on its performance on a host of issues, including economic growth, employment, corruption and social harmony. Atal Bihari Vajpayee had led the NDA to back-to-back wins in 1998 and 1999 general elections but he was at the helm for only one full term. After losing three assemblies last year, the BJP believes its Lok Sabha campaign is back on track following decisions like 10 per cent quota for the general category poor, money transfer to farmers and a populist budget. What has injected further confidence into the NDA fold is the fronting of the nationalist plank in the poll campaign after the Indian Air Force' strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan after Pulwama terror attack, which killed 40 CRPF personnel. The BJP has been citing 2016 surgical strikes on terror launch pads and the Balakot air strikes to assert that only a government headed by Modi will be capable of taking on Pakistan over terrorism. Modi has already launched an aggressive campaign accusing opposition parties of coming together for the sole purpose of removing him when he is working to "remove poverty, corruption and terrorism". He had led the NDA to a sweeping victory in 2014 as it won 336 of 543 Lok Sabha seats, reducing the incumbent Congress to its lowest total of 44 seats. In 2014, the Lok Sabha elections were held across nine phases beginning April 7 and ending May 9. Votes were counted on May 16. The total contestants in fray were 8,251, with an average of 15 candidates in each constituency, though deposits got forfeited for 7,000 contestants. A total of over 55 crore voters (66.3 per cent) exercised their vote, while there were nearly 60 lakh 'NOTA' votes. A total of 668 women candidates contested, out of which 62 won.

Lok Sabha polls to stretch out for over a month from April 11 to May 19, results on May 23

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/lok-sabha-polls-to-stretch-out-for-over-a-month-from-april-11-to-may-19-results-on-may-23-202404">The 2019 Lok Sabha polls</a> will be held over seven phases beginning April 11, Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora said Sunday.&nbsp;

Arora said the polls would stretch for over a month with polling being held from April 11 to May 19, and that all votes would be counted on May 23.&nbsp;

Polling over the seven phases, he added, will take place on April 11, April 19, April 23, April 29, May 6, May 12, and May 19.&nbsp;

Arora said Sunday that assembly elections would be held in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and Odisha along with the Lok Sabha polls.&nbsp;

Here is a detailed break-up of when India's states and union territories will go to the polls.&nbsp;

Phase 1 (April 11)

Andhra Pradesh: 25 seats 
Arunachal Pradesh: 2 seats 
Assam: 5 seats 
Bihar: 4 seats 
Chhattisgarh: 1 seat 
Jammu and Kashmir: 2 seats 
Maharashtra: 7 seats 
Manipur: 1 seat 
Meghalaya: 2 seats 
Mizoram: 1 seat 
Nagaland: 1 seat 
Odisha: 4 seats 
Sikkim: 1 seat 
Telangana: 17 seats 
Tripura: 1 seat 
Uttar Pradesh: 10 seats 
Uttarakhand: 5 seats 
West Bengal: 2 seats 
Andaman and Nicobar Islands: 1 seat 
Lakshadweep: 1 seat

Phase 2 (April 18)

Assam: 5 seats 
Bihar: 5 seats 
Chhattisgarh: 3 seats 
Jammu and Kashmir: 2 seats 
Karnataka: 14 seats 
Maharashtra: 10 seats 
Manipur: 1 seat 
Odisha: 5 seats 
Tamil Nadu: 39 seats 
Tripura: 1 seat 
Uttar Pradesh: 8 seats 
West Bengal: 3 seats 
Puducherry: 1 seat

Phase 3 (April 23)

Assam: 4 seats 
Bihar: 5 seats 
Chhattisgarh: 7 seats 
Gujarat: 26 seats 
Goa: 2 
Jammu and Kashmir: 1 seat 
Karnataka: 14 seats 
Kerala: 20 seats 
Maharashtra: 14 seats 
Odisha: 6 seats 
Uttar Pradesh: 10 seats 
West Bengal: 5 seats 
Dadra and Nagar Haveli: 1 seat 
Daman and Diu: 1 seat

Phase 4 (April 29)

Bihar: 5 seats 
Jammu and Kashmir: 1 seat 
Jharkhand: 3 seats 
Madhya Pradesh: 6 seats 
Maharashtra: 17 seats 
Odisha: 6 seats 
Rajasthan: 13 seats 
Uttar Pradesh: 13 seats 
West Bengal: 8 seats

Phase 5 (May 6)

Bihar: 5 seats 
Jammu and Kashmir: 2 seats 
Jharkhand: 4 seats 
Madhya Pradesh: 7 seats 
Rajasthan: 12 seats 
Uttar Pradesh: 14 seats 
West Bengal: 7 seats

Phase 6 (May 12)

Bihar: 8 seats 
Haryana: 10 seats 
Jharkhand: 4 seats 
Madhya Pradesh: 8 seats 
Uttar Pradesh: 14 seats 
West Bengal: 8 seats 
Delhi: 7 seats

Phase 7 (May 19)

Bihar: 8 seats 
Jharkhand: 3 seats 
Madhya Pradesh: 8 seats 
Punjab: 13 seats 
West Bengal: 9 seats 
Chandigarh: 1 seat 
Uttar Pradesh: 13 seats

The 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be held over seven phases beginning April 11, Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora said Sunday. Arora said the polls would stretch for over a month with polling being held from April 11 to May 19, and that all votes would be counted on May 23.

The 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be held over seven phases beginning April 11, Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora said Sunday. Arora said the polls would stretch for over a month with polling being held from April 11 to May 19, and that all votes would be counted on May 23. Polling over the seven phases, he added, will take place on April 11, April 19, April 23, April 29, May 6, May 12, and May 19. Arora said Sunday that assembly elections would be held in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and Odisha along with the Lok Sabha polls. Here is a detailed break-up of when India's states and union territories will go to the polls. Phase 1 (April 11) Andhra Pradesh: 25 seats Arunachal Pradesh: 2 seats Assam: 5 seats Bihar: 4 seats Chhattisgarh: 1 seat Jammu and Kashmir: 2 seats Maharashtra: 7 seats Manipur: 1 seat Meghalaya: 2 seats Mizoram: 1 seat Nagaland: 1 seat Odisha: 4 seats Sikkim: 1 seat Telangana: 17 seats Tripura: 1 seat Uttar Pradesh: 10 seats Uttarakhand: 5 seats West Bengal: 2 seats Andaman and Nicobar Islands: 1 seat Lakshadweep: 1 seat Phase 2 (April 18) Assam: 5 seats Bihar: 5 seats Chhattisgarh: 3 seats Jammu and Kashmir: 2 seats Karnataka: 14 seats Maharashtra: 10 seats Manipur: 1 seat Odisha: 5 seats Tamil Nadu: 39 seats Tripura: 1 seat Uttar Pradesh: 8 seats West Bengal: 3 seats Puducherry: 1 seat Phase 3 (April 23) Assam: 4 seats Bihar: 5 seats Chhattisgarh: 7 seats Gujarat: 26 seats Goa: 2 Jammu and Kashmir: 1 seat Karnataka: 14 seats Kerala: 20 seats Maharashtra: 14 seats Odisha: 6 seats Uttar Pradesh: 10 seats West Bengal: 5 seats Dadra and Nagar Haveli: 1 seat Daman and Diu: 1 seat Phase 4 (April 29) Bihar: 5 seats Jammu and Kashmir: 1 seat Jharkhand: 3 seats Madhya Pradesh: 6 seats Maharashtra: 17 seats Odisha: 6 seats Rajasthan: 13 seats Uttar Pradesh: 13 seats West Bengal: 8 seats Phase 5 (May 6) Bihar: 5 seats Jammu and Kashmir: 2 seats Jharkhand: 4 seats Madhya Pradesh: 7 seats Rajasthan: 12 seats Uttar Pradesh: 14 seats West Bengal: 7 seats Phase 6 (May 12) Bihar: 8 seats Haryana: 10 seats Jharkhand: 4 seats Madhya Pradesh: 8 seats Uttar Pradesh: 14 seats West Bengal: 8 seats Delhi: 7 seats Phase 7 (May 19) Bihar: 8 seats Jharkhand: 3 seats Madhya Pradesh: 8 seats Punjab: 13 seats West Bengal: 9 seats Chandigarh: 1 seat Uttar Pradesh: 13 seats

2019 Lok Sabha elections: Check when your state, UT goes to the polls

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