ADB on Wednesday said the Indian economy is projected to grow at 11 per cent in the current financial year on the back of the strong vaccination programme, but cautioned that second wave of Covid is worrying.&nbsp;

"India's economy is expected to grow 11 per cent in fiscal year (FY) 2021, which ends on March 31, 2022, amid a strong vaccine drive. However, the recent surge in COVID-19 cases may put this recovery at risk," said the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021.&nbsp;

Continued economic recovery boosted by increased public investment, vaccine rollout and a surge in domestic demand will trigger this strong rebound, ADB said.&nbsp;

The predictions are based on assumption that there is extensive vaccine deployment across the country and the second wave of coronavirus is contained.&nbsp;

According to ADB's flagship publication Asian Development Outlook, "the second wave of COVID-19 cases is worrying, especially if vaccine rollout faulters or fails to contain it."&nbsp;

Another risk is the further tightening of global financial conditions, which would apply pressure on India's market interest rates and therefore affect economic normalisation, the report added.&nbsp;

Going further, ADB forecasts India's economic growth to moderate to seven per cent in FY2022, on account of disappearance of base effect.&nbsp;

The economy is expected to have contracted by eight per cent in FY2020, in line with the government's second advance estimate, it said.&nbsp;

ADB Country Director for India Takeo Konishi said India's economy faced its worst contraction in FY2020 due to the COVID-19 shock.&nbsp;

"With large government stimulus and the ongoing vaccination drive, we expect economic activity will continue its recovery that started from the third quarter of FY2020 and rebound strongly in the current fiscal year with an uptick in domestic demand, especially in urban services," said Konishi.&nbsp;

The government's boost to public investment through its infrastructure push, incentives for manufacturing, and continued support to boost rural incomes will support India's accelerated recovery, Konishi said.&nbsp;

(With inputs from agencies)&nbsp;

ADB on Wednesday said the Indian economy is projected to grow at 11 per cent in the current financial year on the back of the strong vaccination programme, but cautioned that second wave of Covid is worrying.

ADB on Wednesday said the Indian economy is projected to grow at 11 per cent in the current financial year on the back of the strong vaccination programme, but cautioned that second wave of Covid is worrying. "India's economy is expected to grow 11 per cent in fiscal year (FY) 2021, which ends on March 31, 2022, amid a strong vaccine drive. However, the recent surge in COVID-19 cases may put this recovery at risk," said the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021. Continued economic recovery boosted by increased public investment, vaccine rollout and a surge in domestic demand will trigger this strong rebound, ADB said. The predictions are based on assumption that there is extensive vaccine deployment across the country and the second wave of coronavirus is contained. According to ADB's flagship publication Asian Development Outlook, "the second wave of COVID-19 cases is worrying, especially if vaccine rollout faulters or fails to contain it." Another risk is the further tightening of global financial conditions, which would apply pressure on India's market interest rates and therefore affect economic normalisation, the report added. Going further, ADB forecasts India's economic growth to moderate to seven per cent in FY2022, on account of disappearance of base effect. The economy is expected to have contracted by eight per cent in FY2020, in line with the government's second advance estimate, it said. ADB Country Director for India Takeo Konishi said India's economy faced its worst contraction in FY2020 due to the COVID-19 shock. "With large government stimulus and the ongoing vaccination drive, we expect economic activity will continue its recovery that started from the third quarter of FY2020 and rebound strongly in the current fiscal year with an uptick in domestic demand, especially in urban services," said Konishi. The government's boost to public investment through its infrastructure push, incentives for manufacturing, and continued support to boost rural incomes will support India's accelerated recovery, Konishi said. (With inputs from agencies)

India's GDP to grow at 11pc this fiscal; second wave of Covid a worry: ADB  

International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised its growth forecast for Indian economy by 100 basis points to 12.5 per cent for fiscal year 2021-22. India is the only country expected to register a double-digit growth this fiscal.

India's growth projection raised to 12.5% for FY22 by IMF

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire on Sunday said that France's public deficit is expected to reach 9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021, it is up from a previous forecast of 8.5% as the country enters its third national Coronavirus lockdown.

World Business Watch: France lifts 2021 deficit, debt forecasts, lowers GDP projections to 5%

South Africa's GDP grew quarter and quarter in three months ending in December but the economy recorded its biggest annual contraction in seven decades last year.

World Business Watch: South Africa’s economy shrank by most in century last year

Japan`s economy expanded at a slower-than-initially-reported pace in October-December, with firms tightening spending on plant and equipment and sharply cutting inventories as the coronavirus pandemic hit demand. 
 
The slower growth was mainly due to a sharper contraction in private inventories and capital expenditure expanding less than previously thought in the fourth quarter, even as exports remained solid. 
 
Separate data showed household spending was hit by a bigger annual drop in January than in the prior month, a sign the COVID-19 pandemic was keeping consumers cautious about shopping. 
 
The economy grew an annualised 11.7% in October-December, weaker than the preliminary reading of 12.7% annualised growth to mark the second straight quarter of growth, Cabinet Office data showed Tuesday. 
 
The reading, which was weaker than economists` median forecast for a 12.8% gain, translates into a real quarter-on-quarter expansion of 2.8% from October-December, versus a preliminary 3.0% gain. 
 
Capital spending grew 4.3% from the previous quarter, lower than a preliminary 4.5% rise, but outpacing the median forecast for a 4.1% increase. 
 
Private inventories, including raw materials and manufactured products, subtracted 0.6 percentage point from revised growth domestic product growth (GDP), worse than a negative preliminary contribution of 0.4 percentage point. 
 
"Although vaccination started in Japan, it will take time to yield its impact, so the economy is forecast to go though some ups and downs," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. 
 
"We expect the economy will pick up from the second quarter but it will be difficult to regain soon what it will lose in the first quarter." 
 
Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP, rose 2.2% from the previous three months, matching the preliminary reading. 
 
Net exports - or exports minus imports - added 1.1 percentage point to revised GDP growth, while domestic demand lifted it by 1.8 percentage point, weaker than a preliminary contribution of 2.0 percentage point. 
 
The worse-than-expected GDP revision comes after exports and factory output picked up in January, signalling a stronger recovery in global demand following last year`s deep coronavirus slump. 
 
Household spending, however, fell 6.1% in January compared with the same month a year earlier, official data showed on Tuesday, worse than the 2.1% drop expected by economists in a Reuters poll. 
 
Some analysts are worried that a cold spell in corporate investment and household spending could last longer than expected, boding ill for demand and threatening to leave the world`s third-largest economy without a domestic growth driver. 
 
The Bank of Japan will conduct a review of its policy tools next week to make them more "effective and sustainable" as the pandemic forces it to keep its radical stimulus programme in place longer than originally expected.

Japan`s economy expanded at a slower-than-initially-reported pace in October-December, with firms tightening spending on plant and equipment and sharply cutting inventories as the coronavirus pandemic hit demand.

Japan`s economy expanded at a slower-than-initially-reported pace in October-December, with firms tightening spending on plant and equipment and sharply cutting inventories as the coronavirus pandemic hit demand. The slower growth was mainly due to a sharper contraction in private inventories and capital expenditure expanding less than previously thought in the fourth quarter, even as exports remained solid. Separate data showed household spending was hit by a bigger annual drop in January than in the prior month, a sign the COVID-19 pandemic was keeping consumers cautious about shopping. The economy grew an annualised 11.7% in October-December, weaker than the preliminary reading of 12.7% annualised growth to mark the second straight quarter of growth, Cabinet Office data showed Tuesday. The reading, which was weaker than economists` median forecast for a 12.8% gain, translates into a real quarter-on-quarter expansion of 2.8% from October-December, versus a preliminary 3.0% gain. Capital spending grew 4.3% from the previous quarter, lower than a preliminary 4.5% rise, but outpacing the median forecast for a 4.1% increase. Private inventories, including raw materials and manufactured products, subtracted 0.6 percentage point from revised growth domestic product growth (GDP), worse than a negative preliminary contribution of 0.4 percentage point. "Although vaccination started in Japan, it will take time to yield its impact, so the economy is forecast to go though some ups and downs," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "We expect the economy will pick up from the second quarter but it will be difficult to regain soon what it will lose in the first quarter." Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP, rose 2.2% from the previous three months, matching the preliminary reading. Net exports - or exports minus imports - added 1.1 percentage point to revised GDP growth, while domestic demand lifted it by 1.8 percentage point, weaker than a preliminary contribution of 2.0 percentage point. The worse-than-expected GDP revision comes after exports and factory output picked up in January, signalling a stronger recovery in global demand following last year`s deep coronavirus slump. Household spending, however, fell 6.1% in January compared with the same month a year earlier, official data showed on Tuesday, worse than the 2.1% drop expected by economists in a Reuters poll. Some analysts are worried that a cold spell in corporate investment and household spending could last longer than expected, boding ill for demand and threatening to leave the world`s third-largest economy without a domestic growth driver. The Bank of Japan will conduct a review of its policy tools next week to make them more "effective and sustainable" as the pandemic forces it to keep its radical stimulus programme in place longer than originally expected.

Japan downgrades fourth-quarter GDP as companies scale back spending

Japan's economy expanded at a slower-than-initially-reported pace in October-December as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic weighed on the economic outlook.

World Business Watch: Japan downgrades fourth-quarter GDP as pandemic hurts domestic demands

The pandemic-induced technical recession in India has ended with growth in both GDP and the gross value added (GVA) in real terms in Q3 FY2021.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.4 per cent in the October-December 2020 period compared with the same period a year back, data released by the National Statistics Office on Friday showed.

This growth compares with revised contractions of 24.4 per cent in April-June 2020 and 7.3 per cent in July-September. GDP had expanded by 3.3 per cent in October-December 2019.

While India has become one of the few major economies to post growth in the last quarter of 2020, the annual GDP estimate for the fiscal year ending March 31 has been revised to an 8 per cent contraction, deeper than an earlier estimate of (-) 7.7 per cent.

China's economy grew by 6.5 per cent in October-December 2020, faster than the 4.9 per cent growth in July-September 2020.

Commenting on the growth numbers, the finance ministry in a statement said real GDP growth has "returned the economy to the pre-pandemic times of positive growth rates."

"It is also a reflection of a further strengthening of V-shaped recovery that began in Q2 of 2020-21 after a large GDP contraction in Q1 followed one of the most stringent lockdown imposed by government relative to other countries," it said.

Stating that the V-shaped recovery has been driven by rebounds in private consumption and investments, the ministry said the initial policy choice of "lives over livelihoods" succeeded by "lives as well as livelihoods" is now bearing positive results.

Agriculture, a bright spot through the pandemic, grew 3.9 per cent in October-December while manufacturing expanded 1.6 per cent as the economy reopened after a harsh lockdown.

Financial and real estate services grew 6.6 per cent but trade, hotels, transport and communication fell 7.7 per cent. Construction rose 6.2 per cent.

The positive growth ends the recession that the Indian economy had witnessed lately.

Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun &amp; Bradstreet, said the release of pent-up demand fuelled by the festive period might have added to the marginal positive growth in GDP in Q3 FY21.

"Most surprising is the contribution of government spending to the GDP during the third quarter which is a seven-quarter low, even as the government's stimulus package 3.0 was announced before the festive month," he said, adding that private consumption demand, although improved, remains weak.

However, there are risks to growth that arise from the fact that industrial production is yet to stabilise, core inflation remains stubbornly high, oil prices are rearing its head again and unemployment remains elevated.

Add to this is the risk of spurt in COVID-19 cases in some states and the likely disruptions to businesses and supply chain from the restrictions imposed to curb the possibility of a second wave.

"The measures taken by the government to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic have had an impact on the economic activities as well as on the data collection mechanisms.

"The data challenges in the case of other underlying macro-economic indicators like IIP (industrial production) and CPI (retail inflation), used in the estimation of National Accounts aggregates and specific measures, if any, taken by the government in the following months with a view to addressing the pandemic led economic situation will have implications on the subsequent revision of these estimates," the NSO said.

Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo sharp revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take this into consideration when interpreting the figures, it added.

"With a growth re-emerging in both GDP and GVA in Q3 FY2021, the pandemic-induced technical recession in India has ended, in line with our expectations," Icra Principal Economist Aditi Nayar said.

Recouping of GDP to the positive territory is a promising sign as it portends the end of the pandemic-induced recessionary phase seen in the first half of the year, CII Director General Chandrajit Banerjee said.

The growth stimuli available from the Union Budget and the additional measures, including the PLI (Production Linked Incentives), will lead to a sturdy growth path over the recovery horizon, he added.

"The real push will come in the Q4 (January-March) 2021 because lockdowns on many sectors, particularly hospitality and travel eased substantially during this quarter.

"It is hoped that it remains that way, given the uptick in COVID-19 cases in some pockets and in some states. Important to note that the states coming under uptick constitute a large part of industrial activity, and that is important for Q4 and the next financial year," Deloitte India partner Sanjay Kumar said.

(With inputs from agencies)

The pandemic-induced technical recession in India has ended with growth in both GDP and the gross value added (GVA) in real terms in Q3 FY2021. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.

The pandemic-induced technical recession in India has ended with growth in both GDP and the gross value added (GVA) in real terms in Q3 FY2021. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.4 per cent in the October-December 2020 period compared with the same period a year back, data released by the National Statistics Office on Friday showed. This growth compares with revised contractions of 24.4 per cent in April-June 2020 and 7.3 per cent in July-September. GDP had expanded by 3.3 per cent in October-December 2019. While India has become one of the few major economies to post growth in the last quarter of 2020, the annual GDP estimate for the fiscal year ending March 31 has been revised to an 8 per cent contraction, deeper than an earlier estimate of (-) 7.7 per cent. China's economy grew by 6.5 per cent in October-December 2020, faster than the 4.9 per cent growth in July-September 2020. Commenting on the growth numbers, the finance ministry in a statement said real GDP growth has "returned the economy to the pre-pandemic times of positive growth rates." "It is also a reflection of a further strengthening of V-shaped recovery that began in Q2 of 2020-21 after a large GDP contraction in Q1 followed one of the most stringent lockdown imposed by government relative to other countries," it said. Stating that the V-shaped recovery has been driven by rebounds in private consumption and investments, the ministry said the initial policy choice of "lives over livelihoods" succeeded by "lives as well as livelihoods" is now bearing positive results. Agriculture, a bright spot through the pandemic, grew 3.9 per cent in October-December while manufacturing expanded 1.6 per cent as the economy reopened after a harsh lockdown. Financial and real estate services grew 6.6 per cent but trade, hotels, transport and communication fell 7.7 per cent. Construction rose 6.2 per cent. The positive growth ends the recession that the Indian economy had witnessed lately. Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet, said the release of pent-up demand fuelled by the festive period might have added to the marginal positive growth in GDP in Q3 FY21. "Most surprising is the contribution of government spending to the GDP during the third quarter which is a seven-quarter low, even as the government's stimulus package 3.0 was announced before the festive month," he said, adding that private consumption demand, although improved, remains weak. However, there are risks to growth that arise from the fact that industrial production is yet to stabilise, core inflation remains stubbornly high, oil prices are rearing its head again and unemployment remains elevated. Add to this is the risk of spurt in COVID-19 cases in some states and the likely disruptions to businesses and supply chain from the restrictions imposed to curb the possibility of a second wave. "The measures taken by the government to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic have had an impact on the economic activities as well as on the data collection mechanisms. "The data challenges in the case of other underlying macro-economic indicators like IIP (industrial production) and CPI (retail inflation), used in the estimation of National Accounts aggregates and specific measures, if any, taken by the government in the following months with a view to addressing the pandemic led economic situation will have implications on the subsequent revision of these estimates," the NSO said. Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo sharp revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take this into consideration when interpreting the figures, it added. "With a growth re-emerging in both GDP and GVA in Q3 FY2021, the pandemic-induced technical recession in India has ended, in line with our expectations," Icra Principal Economist Aditi Nayar said. Recouping of GDP to the positive territory is a promising sign as it portends the end of the pandemic-induced recessionary phase seen in the first half of the year, CII Director General Chandrajit Banerjee said. The growth stimuli available from the Union Budget and the additional measures, including the PLI (Production Linked Incentives), will lead to a sturdy growth path over the recovery horizon, he added. "The real push will come in the Q4 (January-March) 2021 because lockdowns on many sectors, particularly hospitality and travel eased substantially during this quarter. "It is hoped that it remains that way, given the uptick in COVID-19 cases in some pockets and in some states. Important to note that the states coming under uptick constitute a large part of industrial activity, and that is important for Q4 and the next financial year," Deloitte India partner Sanjay Kumar said. (With inputs from agencies)

Covid-driven recession over, India economy returns to growth in December quarter

For most of the world, 2020 will go down in the record books as one of the worst years in global history.&nbsp;

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, nearly two million people died, tens of millions lost their jobs and countless faced unprecedented disruption to their daily lives. But it was also a very profitable year for the elite few financial executives betting on the health of the global economy.&nbsp;

In total, the world’s top 15 hedge fund managers earnt $23.2bn (£16.9bn) collectively last year. It is more than the gross domestic product of Iceland or Zambia.&nbsp;

According to a Bloomberg analysis of regulatory filings, Chase Coleman III, the best performing hedge fund manager and Tiger Global Management (TGM) founder, was reported to have made $3bn in performance management fees and gains on personal investment in the fund.&nbsp;

According to the International Monetary Fund, Coleman’s personal pay in 2020 was more than the GDP of dozens of countries including Gambia, Bhutan and Eritrea. &nbsp;

It seems to be the biggest single year’s pay for anyone since another hedge fund manager, John Paulson, made $5bn in 2010, betting on the recovery of the economy after the financial crisis.&nbsp;

According to estimates by Forbes magazine, Coleman’s $3bn adds to the $4.5bn fortune, he had already amassed. It had ranked him as the 458th richest person in the world.&nbsp;

By investing heavily in tech stocks including PayPal, Google-owner Alphabet, the fitness bike company Peloton and the remote-working winners, Zoom and Slack, Coleman and his TGM fund made a lot of money. Coleman was also an early investor in Facebook, which made his fund nearly $1bn.&nbsp;

For most of the world, 2020 will go down in the record books as one of the worst years in global history. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, nearly two million people died, tens of millions lost their jobs and countless faced unprecedented disruption to their daily lives.

For most of the world, 2020 will go down in the record books as one of the worst years in global history. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, nearly two million people died, tens of millions lost their jobs and countless faced unprecedented disruption to their daily lives. But it was also a very profitable year for the elite few financial executives betting on the health of the global economy. In total, the world’s top 15 hedge fund managers earnt $23.2bn (£16.9bn) collectively last year. It is more than the gross domestic product of Iceland or Zambia. According to a Bloomberg analysis of regulatory filings, Chase Coleman III, the best performing hedge fund manager and Tiger Global Management (TGM) founder, was reported to have made $3bn in performance management fees and gains on personal investment in the fund. According to the International Monetary Fund, Coleman’s personal pay in 2020 was more than the GDP of dozens of countries including Gambia, Bhutan and Eritrea. It seems to be the biggest single year’s pay for anyone since another hedge fund manager, John Paulson, made $5bn in 2010, betting on the recovery of the economy after the financial crisis. According to estimates by Forbes magazine, Coleman’s $3bn adds to the $4.5bn fortune, he had already amassed. It had ranked him as the 458th richest person in the world. By investing heavily in tech stocks including PayPal, Google-owner Alphabet, the fitness bike company Peloton and the remote-working winners, Zoom and Slack, Coleman and his TGM fund made a lot of money. Coleman was also an early investor in Facebook, which made his fund nearly $1bn.

Top 15 hedge fund managers earn $23.2bn in 2020, more than Iceland’s GDP

Taiwan's government on Thursday said it had approved a $140 million investment in India by Pegatron Corp, a major Taiwanese Apple Inc contract manufacturer.

Taiwan approves $140 million Pegatron investment in India

According to the BDI industry association Europe’s largest economy, Germany is expected to grow 3.5% this year after plunging roughly 5% in 2020

World Business Watch: German GDP expected to grow by 3.5% in 2021

Domestic rating agency Icra Ratings on Monday said it expects the country's real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 10.1 per cent in FY2022.

It, however, said the value of GDP in the next financial year will only mildly surpass the level that had been recorded in FY2020.

"After a 7.8 per cent pandemic-driven shrinkage in the ongoing fiscal (FY2021), India's real GDP is projected to record a growth of 10.1 per cent in FY2022. The seemingly-sharp expansion will be led by the continued normalisation in economic activities as the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines gathers traction, as well as the low base," the agency principal economist Aditi Nayar said in a report.

The agency's principal economist expects a multi-speed recovery in FY2022, with the contact-intensive sectors, discretionary consumption and investment by the private sector trailing the rest of the economy, in the arduous march back to attaining, and sustaining, pre-COVID levels.

"On a sobering note, we project the aggregate value of the Indian GDP in real terms in FY2022, to be only mildly higher than the level recorded in FY2020," Nayar added.

The agency expects the headline CPI inflation to decline to 4.6 per cent in FY2022 from 6.4 per cent in FY2021, while exceeding the mid-point of the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC's) medium target of 4 per cent, for the third consecutive year.

A favourable base would moderate the retail food inflation to an average of 4.7 per cent in FY2022 from 8 per cent in FY2021, despite the pressures from edible oils, and protein items such as pulses, it said.

With the CPI inflation expected to remain above the MPC's 4 per cent target during FY2022, the agency expects an extended pause for the repo rate.

It expects the "stance of monetary policy to be changed to neutral from accommodative in the August 2021 policy review or later, only after there is greater certainty on the durability of the awaited economic revival." The report said RBI may initiate steps, in a calibrated manner, to reduce the magnitude of the systemic liquidity surplus.

Nayar said the government security yields will take a cue from the size of the borrowing programme of the central and the state governments for FY2022, as well as the outlook for inflation. The agency expects the twin deficits to display a divergent trend in FY2022.

"As the revenue shock ebbs, we project India's general government (centre + states) fiscal deficit to moderate to 8.5 per cent of GDP in FY2022 from the 12-12.5 per cent of the GDP expected in the current year," Nayar said.

However, with imports expected to revive in tune with the anticipated recovery in domestic demand, the current account balance is forecast to slip back into a modest deficit of USD 15-20 billion (or 0.6 per cent of GDP) in FY2022 from a surplus of USD 35-40 billion in FY2021, she said.

Domestic rating agency Icra Ratings on Monday said it expects the country's real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 10.1 per cent in FY2022. It, however, said the value of GDP in the next financial year will only mildly surpass the level that had been recorded in FY2020.

Domestic rating agency Icra Ratings on Monday said it expects the country's real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 10.1 per cent in FY2022. It, however, said the value of GDP in the next financial year will only mildly surpass the level that had been recorded in FY2020. "After a 7.8 per cent pandemic-driven shrinkage in the ongoing fiscal (FY2021), India's real GDP is projected to record a growth of 10.1 per cent in FY2022. The seemingly-sharp expansion will be led by the continued normalisation in economic activities as the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines gathers traction, as well as the low base," the agency principal economist Aditi Nayar said in a report. The agency's principal economist expects a multi-speed recovery in FY2022, with the contact-intensive sectors, discretionary consumption and investment by the private sector trailing the rest of the economy, in the arduous march back to attaining, and sustaining, pre-COVID levels. "On a sobering note, we project the aggregate value of the Indian GDP in real terms in FY2022, to be only mildly higher than the level recorded in FY2020," Nayar added. The agency expects the headline CPI inflation to decline to 4.6 per cent in FY2022 from 6.4 per cent in FY2021, while exceeding the mid-point of the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC's) medium target of 4 per cent, for the third consecutive year. A favourable base would moderate the retail food inflation to an average of 4.7 per cent in FY2022 from 8 per cent in FY2021, despite the pressures from edible oils, and protein items such as pulses, it said. With the CPI inflation expected to remain above the MPC's 4 per cent target during FY2022, the agency expects an extended pause for the repo rate. It expects the "stance of monetary policy to be changed to neutral from accommodative in the August 2021 policy review or later, only after there is greater certainty on the durability of the awaited economic revival." The report said RBI may initiate steps, in a calibrated manner, to reduce the magnitude of the systemic liquidity surplus. Nayar said the government security yields will take a cue from the size of the borrowing programme of the central and the state governments for FY2022, as well as the outlook for inflation. The agency expects the twin deficits to display a divergent trend in FY2022. "As the revenue shock ebbs, we project India's general government (centre + states) fiscal deficit to moderate to 8.5 per cent of GDP in FY2022 from the 12-12.5 per cent of the GDP expected in the current year," Nayar said. However, with imports expected to revive in tune with the anticipated recovery in domestic demand, the current account balance is forecast to slip back into a modest deficit of USD 15-20 billion (or 0.6 per cent of GDP) in FY2022 from a surplus of USD 35-40 billion in FY2021, she said.

India's real GDP to expand by 10.1 per cent in FY2022: ICRA 

India's current account surplus shrinks to 15.5 billion dollars in July-September quarter from record surplus of 19.2 billion dollars in April- June. The surplus at 2.4% of GDP in the latest quarter compared to the deficit of 7.6 billion dollars.

World Business Watch: India's current account surplus shrinks

Japan's prime minister on Tuesday unveiled more than $700 billion in fresh stimulus to fund projects from anti-coronavirus measures to green tech, the country's third such package this financial year.

The coronavirus pandemic has wrought global economic carnage and countries across the world have announced massive cash injections.

Also read|&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/more-people-died-by-suicide-in-october-than-from-covid-19-in-2020-in-japan-346347">More people died by suicide in October than from COVID-19 in 2020 in Japan</a>

Premier Yoshihide Suga said the latest package, worth 73.6 trillion yen ($708 billion) -- including loan schemes and actual government spending of around 40 trillion yen -- would be formally approved later Tuesday.

It is the first stimulus spending Suga has announced since taking office in September, and comes as Japan faces a spike in Covid-19 infections, with record numbers of new cases reported in recent weeks.

"We drew up (the stimulus package) to pave the way for new growth, to protect people's livelihoods as well as maintaining employment and keeping businesses going," he said.

Japan officially exited recession last month after three quarters of contraction, and hopes to cement its recovery with the latest spending -- which follows previous packages in April and June worth around 117 trillion yen each.

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Government data released Tuesday revised up Japan's GDP figure for the July-September period to 5.3 percent from a preliminary estimate of 5.0 percent.

The new package includes financial support for medical institutions and facilities for the elderly, and subsidies to continue a controversial domestic travel scheme supporting tourism-dependent businesses.

While Japan has seen a relatively small Covid-19 outbreak overall -- with 163,929 confirmed cases and 2,382 deaths -- there has been a sharp rise in infections, and doctors have warned that hospitals could be overwhelmed.

A severe shortage of medical staff has been reported in Osaka and the northern Hokkaido region, with local media saying military backup could be sent to hospitals there.

The package also features a $20 billion green tech fund designed to support projects from renewable energy development to pollution reduction.

In October, Suga set a 2050 deadline for Japan to become carbon neutral, significantly firming up the country's climate-change commitments.

Japan's prime minister on Tuesday unveiled more than $700 billion in fresh stimulus to fund projects from anti-coronavirus measures to green tech, the country's third such package this financial year.

Japan's prime minister on Tuesday unveiled more than $700 billion in fresh stimulus to fund projects from anti-coronavirus measures to green tech, the country's third such package this financial year. The coronavirus pandemic has wrought global economic carnage and countries across the world have announced massive cash injections. Also read| More people died by suicide in October than from COVID-19 in 2020 in Japan Premier Yoshihide Suga said the latest package, worth 73.6 trillion yen ($708 billion) -- including loan schemes and actual government spending of around 40 trillion yen -- would be formally approved later Tuesday. It is the first stimulus spending Suga has announced since taking office in September, and comes as Japan faces a spike in Covid-19 infections, with record numbers of new cases reported in recent weeks. "We drew up (the stimulus package) to pave the way for new growth, to protect people's livelihoods as well as maintaining employment and keeping businesses going," he said. Japan officially exited recession last month after three quarters of contraction, and hopes to cement its recovery with the latest spending -- which follows previous packages in April and June worth around 117 trillion yen each. × Government data released Tuesday revised up Japan's GDP figure for the July-September period to 5.3 percent from a preliminary estimate of 5.0 percent. The new package includes financial support for medical institutions and facilities for the elderly, and subsidies to continue a controversial domestic travel scheme supporting tourism-dependent businesses. While Japan has seen a relatively small Covid-19 outbreak overall -- with 163,929 confirmed cases and 2,382 deaths -- there has been a sharp rise in infections, and doctors have warned that hospitals could be overwhelmed. A severe shortage of medical staff has been reported in Osaka and the northern Hokkaido region, with local media saying military backup could be sent to hospitals there. The package also features a $20 billion green tech fund designed to support projects from renewable energy development to pollution reduction. In October, Suga set a 2050 deadline for Japan to become carbon neutral, significantly firming up the country's climate-change commitments.

Japan unveils fresh $700 billion stimulus package

India's economy, severely affected by the coronavirus pandemic, is gradually recovering, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

Indian economy is gradually recovering: IMF

India’s official GDP data will be released today. Asia’s third- largest economy registered its steepest fall historically in April-June quarter which is also Q1 of current financial year. Though India’s economy is recovering but just how strong the beginning of that recovery has been will be clear when the National Statistics Office releases the July-September quarter gross domestic product data.

All eyes on Q2 GDP data due today

Europe’s largest economy partly recovered from an unprecedented plunge caused by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring, German Economy Grows 8.5 % In Third Quarter.

Germany's Stronger than expected rebound

The coronavirus has impacted economies across the world. Lockdowns imposed earlier this year plummeted GDP numbers and globally the poor are the worst hit. Watch report.

Dwindling economies forces migration: Over 1,200 Africans migrate to Canary islands via sea

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) assesses that most countries in the world will return to pre-coronavirus pandemic GDP levels by 2020, IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said during a virtual briefing on Tuesday. 
 
<a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/coronavirus-impact-imf-projects-indias-gdp-to-contract-103-in-2020-334996">Also read | Coronavirus impact: IMF projects India’s GDP to contract 10.3% in 2020</a> 
 
"Most countries of the world we are seeing return back to the 2019 (GDP) levels by 2022," Gopinath told reporters. 
 
Watch: IMF sees shallower recession, tough path back to full recovery

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However, Gopinath noted that some regions in the world are expected to take longer to recover because they face different impacts from the novel coronavirus crisis.

"There are some regions in the world where it (the recovery) is projected to take even longer," Gopinath said.

The fund now forecasts world gross domestic product to shrink 4.4% this year, compared with the 5.2% drop seen in June, according to the latest World Economic Outlook released Tuesday. For 2021, the IMF sees growth of 5.2%, down from 5.4%. The report includes revisions to June’s forecasts and other historical data to reflect updated country weightings.

The contraction would still be the deepest since the Great Depression, with Covid-19 having killed more than 1 million people and shut down large swaths of business.

“Recovery is not assured while the pandemic continues to spread," chief economist Gita Gopinath wrote in the report. “Economies everywhere face difficult paths back to pre-pandemic activity levels."

(With inputs from agencies)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) assesses that most countries in the world will return to pre-coronavirus pandemic GDP levels by 2020, IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said during a virtual briefing on Tuesday.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) assesses that most countries in the world will return to pre-coronavirus pandemic GDP levels by 2020, IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said during a virtual briefing on Tuesday. Also read | Coronavirus impact: IMF projects India’s GDP to contract 10.3% in 2020 "Most countries of the world we are seeing return back to the 2019 (GDP) levels by 2022," Gopinath told reporters. Watch: IMF sees shallower recession, tough path back to full recovery However, Gopinath noted that some regions in the world are expected to take longer to recover because they face different impacts from the novel coronavirus crisis. "There are some regions in the world where it (the recovery) is projected to take even longer," Gopinath said. The fund now forecasts world gross domestic product to shrink 4.4% this year, compared with the 5.2% drop seen in June, according to the latest World Economic Outlook released Tuesday. For 2021, the IMF sees growth of 5.2%, down from 5.4%. The report includes revisions to June’s forecasts and other historical data to reflect updated country weightings. The contraction would still be the deepest since the Great Depression, with Covid-19 having killed more than 1 million people and shut down large swaths of business. “Recovery is not assured while the pandemic continues to spread," chief economist Gita Gopinath wrote in the report. “Economies everywhere face difficult paths back to pre-pandemic activity levels." (With inputs from agencies)

GDP in most countries to recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2022: IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday projected that Indian economy, severely hit by the coronavirus pandemic shall contract by a massive 10.3 per cent this year.

However, India is likely to bounce back with an impressive 8.8 per cent growth rate in 2021, thus regaining the position of the fastest growing emerging economy, surpassing China's projected growth rate of 8.2 per cent, the IMF said in its latest 'World Economic Outlook' report.

The IMF in its report said that revisions to the forecast are particularly large for India, where Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted much more severely than expected in the second quarter.

"As a result, the economy is projected to contract by 10.3 per cent in 2020, before rebounding by 8.8 per cent in 2021," it said. In 2019, India's growth rate was 4.2 per cent.

According to the IMF, India is among those likely to suffer the greatest damage from global warming, reflecting its initially high temperatures. For India, the net gains from climate change mitigation-relative to inaction-would be up to 60-80 per cent of GDP by 2100.

Last week, the World Bank said India's GDP this fiscal is expected to contract by 9.6 per cent.

"India's GDP is expected to contract 9.6 per cent in the fiscal year that started in March," the World Bank said in its latest issue of the South Asia Economic Focus report.

"The situation is much worse in India than we have ever seen before," Hans Timmer, World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia, told reporters during a conference call last week. "It is an exceptional situation in India. A very dire outlook," he said.&nbsp;

Meanwhile, Massive injections of government aid kept world economies from plunging further, though growth in 2021 is expected to be slightly slower than forecast in June, according to the Washington-based crisis lender's World Economic Outlook.

Around $3 trillion in stimulus spending kept the United States from a disastrous contraction and growth is expected to decline just 4.3% this year. China will see its economy expand by 1.9%.

Even amid the improved news, countries like India, Spain and Italy will see double digit declines, while Britain just misses that threshold with a 9.8% contraction, the IMF said.

(With inputs from agencies)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday projected that Indian economy, severely hit by the coronavirus pandemic shall contract by a massive 10.3 per cent this year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday projected that Indian economy, severely hit by the coronavirus pandemic shall contract by a massive 10.3 per cent this year. However, India is likely to bounce back with an impressive 8.8 per cent growth rate in 2021, thus regaining the position of the fastest growing emerging economy, surpassing China's projected growth rate of 8.2 per cent, the IMF said in its latest 'World Economic Outlook' report. The IMF in its report said that revisions to the forecast are particularly large for India, where Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted much more severely than expected in the second quarter. "As a result, the economy is projected to contract by 10.3 per cent in 2020, before rebounding by 8.8 per cent in 2021," it said. In 2019, India's growth rate was 4.2 per cent. According to the IMF, India is among those likely to suffer the greatest damage from global warming, reflecting its initially high temperatures. For India, the net gains from climate change mitigation-relative to inaction-would be up to 60-80 per cent of GDP by 2100. Last week, the World Bank said India's GDP this fiscal is expected to contract by 9.6 per cent. "India's GDP is expected to contract 9.6 per cent in the fiscal year that started in March," the World Bank said in its latest issue of the South Asia Economic Focus report. "The situation is much worse in India than we have ever seen before," Hans Timmer, World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia, told reporters during a conference call last week. "It is an exceptional situation in India. A very dire outlook," he said. Meanwhile, Massive injections of government aid kept world economies from plunging further, though growth in 2021 is expected to be slightly slower than forecast in June, according to the Washington-based crisis lender's World Economic Outlook. Around $3 trillion in stimulus spending kept the United States from a disastrous contraction and growth is expected to decline just 4.3% this year. China will see its economy expand by 1.9%. Even amid the improved news, countries like India, Spain and Italy will see double digit declines, while Britain just misses that threshold with a 9.8% contraction, the IMF said. (With inputs from agencies)

Coronavirus impact: IMF projects India’s GDP to contract 10.3% in 2020

The World Bank on Thursday said that India’s GDP is expected to contract by 9.6 per cent this fiscal which is reflective of the national lockdown and the income shock experienced by households and firms due to the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that the country’s economic situation is “much worse” than ever seen before.

The Washington-based global lender, in its latest South Asia Economic Focus report ahead of the annual meeting of the World bank and International Monetary Fund, forecasts a sharper than expected economic slump across the region, with regional growth expected to contract by 7.7 per cent in 2020, after topping six per cent annually in the past five years.

Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/india-to-become-first-country-to-circulate-iodine-based-sanitisers-333155">India to become first country to circulate iodine-based sanitisers</a>

“India’s GDP is expected to contract by 9.6 per cent in the fiscal year that started in March,” the World Bank said in the report released here.

Regional growth is projected to rebound to 4.5 per cent in 2021, it said.

Factoring in population growth, however, income-per-capita in the region will remain 6 per cent below 2019 estimates, indicating that the expected rebound will not offset the lasting economic damage caused by the pandemic, it said.

“The situation is much worse in India than we have ever seen before,” Hans Timmer, World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia told reporters during a conference call.

“It is an exceptional situation in India. A very dire outlook,” he said.

There was a 25 per cent decline in GDP in the second quarter of the year, which is the first quarter of the current fiscal year in India.

In the report, the World bank said that the spread of the coronavirus and containment measures have severely disrupted supply and demand conditions in India.

With the intent to contain the spread of COVID-19, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with effect from March 25, announced a nationwide complete lockdown that brought as much as 70 per cent of economic activity, investment, exports and discretionary consumption to a standstill. Only essential goods and services such as agriculture, mining, utility services, some financial and IT services and public services were allowed to operate.

Dubbed as the world’s biggest lockdown, it shut a majority of the factories and businesses, suspended flights, stopped trains and restricted movement of vehicles and people.

According to the World Bank, monetary policy has been deployed aggressively and fiscal resources have been channeled to public health and social protection, but additional counter-cyclical measures will be needed, within a revised medium-term fiscal framework.

Despite measures to shield vulnerable households and firms, the trajectory of poverty reduction has slowed, if not reversed, it said.

“We have seen from the rapid survey that many people have lost their jobs,” Timmer said, adding that this is happening against a background when India’s economy was already slowing down before the pandemic.

“We had seen a rise in non-performing loans. Those are all vulnerabilities that India has to deal with,” he said.

Responding to a question, Timmer said what the Indian government has done with limited resources and limited fiscal space is very impressive.

“We have seen a loosening of monetary policy. You have seen attempts to increase credit to the private sector to help a company survive,” he said, adding that there have been big efforts in the health sector and expansion of a social safety net.

“But with every big crisis, I think, we have to realise that this will not go over anytime soon. And it will actually change the longer-term future also. What this reveals is really as good as federal policies, especially the policies related to the informal sector.

“There’s a big problem that the informal sector has no coverage in social insurance. What we see now is that especially the informal workers in the middle of the income distribution have lost their jobs. There are no systems in place to support those people,” Timmer said.

Responding to another question, Timmer said that as a result of COVID-19, the World Bank estimates that in one year, the number of people living below the poverty line has increased by 33 per cent.

In its report, the World Bank said that the response of the government of India to the COVID-19 outbreak was swift and comprehensive. A strict lockdown was implemented to contain the health emergency.

To mitigate its impact on the poorest, it was complemented by social protection measures; to ensure that businesses could maintain their operations, the Reserve Bank of India and the government also provided liquidity and other regulatory support, it said.

“Nonetheless, there was a massive contraction in output and poor and vulnerable households experienced significant social hardships — specifically urban migrants and workers in the informal economy,” the bank said.

After fiscal 2017, during which the economy grew at 8.3 per cent, growth decelerated in each subsequent year to 7.0, 6.1 and 4.2 per cent.

This was on account of two mutually reinforcing dynamics: emerging weaknesses in non-bank financial companies (a major source of credit growth, making up for risk aversion from banks) and slowing private consumption growth, the bank added.

The World Bank on Thursday said that India’s GDP is expected to contract by 9.6 per cent this fiscal which is reflective of the national lockdown and the income shock experienced by households and firms due to the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that the country’s economic situation is “much worse” than ever seen before.

The World Bank on Thursday said that India’s GDP is expected to contract by 9.6 per cent this fiscal which is reflective of the national lockdown and the income shock experienced by households and firms due to the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that the country’s economic situation is “much worse” than ever seen before. The Washington-based global lender, in its latest South Asia Economic Focus report ahead of the annual meeting of the World bank and International Monetary Fund, forecasts a sharper than expected economic slump across the region, with regional growth expected to contract by 7.7 per cent in 2020, after topping six per cent annually in the past five years. Also read | India to become first country to circulate iodine-based sanitisers “India’s GDP is expected to contract by 9.6 per cent in the fiscal year that started in March,” the World Bank said in the report released here. Regional growth is projected to rebound to 4.5 per cent in 2021, it said. Factoring in population growth, however, income-per-capita in the region will remain 6 per cent below 2019 estimates, indicating that the expected rebound will not offset the lasting economic damage caused by the pandemic, it said. “The situation is much worse in India than we have ever seen before,” Hans Timmer, World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia told reporters during a conference call. “It is an exceptional situation in India. A very dire outlook,” he said. There was a 25 per cent decline in GDP in the second quarter of the year, which is the first quarter of the current fiscal year in India. In the report, the World bank said that the spread of the coronavirus and containment measures have severely disrupted supply and demand conditions in India. With the intent to contain the spread of COVID-19, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with effect from March 25, announced a nationwide complete lockdown that brought as much as 70 per cent of economic activity, investment, exports and discretionary consumption to a standstill. Only essential goods and services such as agriculture, mining, utility services, some financial and IT services and public services were allowed to operate. Dubbed as the world’s biggest lockdown, it shut a majority of the factories and businesses, suspended flights, stopped trains and restricted movement of vehicles and people. According to the World Bank, monetary policy has been deployed aggressively and fiscal resources have been channeled to public health and social protection, but additional counter-cyclical measures will be needed, within a revised medium-term fiscal framework. Despite measures to shield vulnerable households and firms, the trajectory of poverty reduction has slowed, if not reversed, it said. “We have seen from the rapid survey that many people have lost their jobs,” Timmer said, adding that this is happening against a background when India’s economy was already slowing down before the pandemic. “We had seen a rise in non-performing loans. Those are all vulnerabilities that India has to deal with,” he said. Responding to a question, Timmer said what the Indian government has done with limited resources and limited fiscal space is very impressive. “We have seen a loosening of monetary policy. You have seen attempts to increase credit to the private sector to help a company survive,” he said, adding that there have been big efforts in the health sector and expansion of a social safety net. “But with every big crisis, I think, we have to realise that this will not go over anytime soon. And it will actually change the longer-term future also. What this reveals is really as good as federal policies, especially the policies related to the informal sector. “There’s a big problem that the informal sector has no coverage in social insurance. What we see now is that especially the informal workers in the middle of the income distribution have lost their jobs. There are no systems in place to support those people,” Timmer said. Responding to another question, Timmer said that as a result of COVID-19, the World Bank estimates that in one year, the number of people living below the poverty line has increased by 33 per cent. In its report, the World Bank said that the response of the government of India to the COVID-19 outbreak was swift and comprehensive. A strict lockdown was implemented to contain the health emergency. To mitigate its impact on the poorest, it was complemented by social protection measures; to ensure that businesses could maintain their operations, the Reserve Bank of India and the government also provided liquidity and other regulatory support, it said. “Nonetheless, there was a massive contraction in output and poor and vulnerable households experienced significant social hardships — specifically urban migrants and workers in the informal economy,” the bank said. After fiscal 2017, during which the economy grew at 8.3 per cent, growth decelerated in each subsequent year to 7.0, 6.1 and 4.2 per cent. This was on account of two mutually reinforcing dynamics: emerging weaknesses in non-bank financial companies (a major source of credit growth, making up for risk aversion from banks) and slowing private consumption growth, the bank added.

India's GDP expected to contract by 9 per cent this year: World Bank

Georgieva told an online London School of Economics event that the IMF will make a small upward revision to its global economic output forecasts next week

'Economic fallout of pandemic not as bad as feared', says IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva

The global downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic offers an opportunity for governments to implement new policies that could simultaneously address climate change and boost the economy, the IMF said Wednesday.

The right mix of carbon taxes to dampen consumption, and subsidies to help consumers and boost green technology research could create jobs and soften the blow as countries transition to greener energy sources, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook.

"Fiscal stimulus — which will likely be needed in the aftermath of the pandemic — can be an opportunity to boost green and resilient public infrastructure," the report said.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/science/global-warming-makes-september-2020-the-worlds-hottest-month-ever-333135">Also read:&nbsp;Global warming makes September, 2020 the world's hottest month ever</a>

IMF research showed there is still time to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 but the window "is closing rapidly," and advanced economies alone cannot reach the goal.

"Joint action by the largest economies is critical to avoid the worst outcomes of climate change," the fund said, singling out fast-growing countries like India.

"An initial green investment push combined with initially moderate and gradually rising carbon prices would deliver the needed emission reductions" while rebates or subsidies to low income households would soften the blow from higher energy prices, according to the proposal.

Most of the costs are offset by the expected 120 percent growth in global GDP by 2050, and by the absence of negative impacts that climate change is likely to have, including on the health of populations due to worsening pollution.

The global downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic offers an opportunity for governments to implement new policies that could simultaneously address climate change and boost the economy, the IMF said Wednesday.

The global downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic offers an opportunity for governments to implement new policies that could simultaneously address climate change and boost the economy, the IMF said Wednesday. The right mix of carbon taxes to dampen consumption, and subsidies to help consumers and boost green technology research could create jobs and soften the blow as countries transition to greener energy sources, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook. "Fiscal stimulus — which will likely be needed in the aftermath of the pandemic — can be an opportunity to boost green and resilient public infrastructure," the report said. Also read: Global warming makes September, 2020 the world's hottest month ever IMF research showed there is still time to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 but the window "is closing rapidly," and advanced economies alone cannot reach the goal. "Joint action by the largest economies is critical to avoid the worst outcomes of climate change," the fund said, singling out fast-growing countries like India. "An initial green investment push combined with initially moderate and gradually rising carbon prices would deliver the needed emission reductions" while rebates or subsidies to low income households would soften the blow from higher energy prices, according to the proposal. Most of the costs are offset by the expected 120 percent growth in global GDP by 2050, and by the absence of negative impacts that climate change is likely to have, including on the health of populations due to worsening pollution.

Pandemic downturn offers path to address climate change: IMF

Global ratings agency Fitch on Tuesday sharply revised its forecast to India's GDP growth, estimating that it will contract 10.5%, while Goldman Sachs expects it to decline by 14.8%in the current fiscal year.

Global rating agencies cut India's GDP forecast

According to Fitch Arm, India’s economy is projected to contract 11.8% on the year in the current fiscal year beginning from April.

Indian economy projected to contract 11.8% in FY 21: Fitch Arm

The Australian economy used to run tirelessly. It even set a record with 28 consecutive years of growth. That great run has now officially come to an end. 
&nbsp; 
The cause, a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. The effect, a Wuhan virus-induced recession.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said: "Australians know, Mr. Speaker, that many, many months ago that this day would come, and this day has come. And, Mr. Speaker, as the pandemic continues to have its impact, not just here, Mr. Speaker, but all around the world, there will be further difficult days ahead."

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Even before the pandemic, the Australian economy was stuttering. Bushfires raged over 12 million hectares--- crashing tourism and hurting businesses.

As the government was trying to put out the fire, the pandemic struck. Australia, like the rest of the world, went into lockdown.

In the January to March period, the GDP contracted by 0.3 per cent.

In the April to June period ----- it contracted by 7 per cent.

The two consecutive quarters of negative growth have pushed Australia into a recession.

It's first since 1991. Even the global financial crisis in 2008 could not hurt Australia. It was the only major economy to avoid a recession.

But, the pandemic has dealt the lethal blow. Australia has lost its famous tag of 'the lucky country'.

Nearly one million Australians have lost their jobs. The government has pumped close to 150 billion dollars as an economic stimulus.

Australia has done better than most of the major economies in controlling the virus outbreak.

But, the second wave of infections in the state of Victoria is likely to delay economic recovery.

Australian treasurer said: "It's important to recognize that this fall in the june quarter does not include the economic impact from the stage four restrictions imposed by the Victorian government in early August. This is something that will weigh heavily on the september quarter numbers."

Australia has fared better than most advanced economies. But the road ahead will be full of hurdles. 
ustralia relies excessively on its largest trading partner, China. Steady exports of coal, iron and other natural resources to China, contribute to Australia's consistent growth.

But now China has slapped tariffs. After Australia called for a probe into the origins of the Wuhan virus.

Australia's problems are both external and internal. The time is right for a hard reset ----- both economically and politically.

The Australian economy used to run tirelessly. It even set a record with 28 consecutive years of growth. That great run has now officially come to an end. The cause, a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic.

The Australian economy used to run tirelessly. It even set a record with 28 consecutive years of growth. That great run has now officially come to an end. The cause, a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. The effect, a Wuhan virus-induced recession. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said: "Australians know, Mr. Speaker, that many, many months ago that this day would come, and this day has come. And, Mr. Speaker, as the pandemic continues to have its impact, not just here, Mr. Speaker, but all around the world, there will be further difficult days ahead." Even before the pandemic, the Australian economy was stuttering. Bushfires raged over 12 million hectares--- crashing tourism and hurting businesses. As the government was trying to put out the fire, the pandemic struck. Australia, like the rest of the world, went into lockdown. In the January to March period, the GDP contracted by 0.3 per cent. In the April to June period ----- it contracted by 7 per cent. The two consecutive quarters of negative growth have pushed Australia into a recession. It's first since 1991. Even the global financial crisis in 2008 could not hurt Australia. It was the only major economy to avoid a recession. But, the pandemic has dealt the lethal blow. Australia has lost its famous tag of 'the lucky country'. Nearly one million Australians have lost their jobs. The government has pumped close to 150 billion dollars as an economic stimulus. Australia has done better than most of the major economies in controlling the virus outbreak. But, the second wave of infections in the state of Victoria is likely to delay economic recovery. Australian treasurer said: "It's important to recognize that this fall in the june quarter does not include the economic impact from the stage four restrictions imposed by the Victorian government in early August. This is something that will weigh heavily on the september quarter numbers." Australia has fared better than most advanced economies. But the road ahead will be full of hurdles. ustralia relies excessively on its largest trading partner, China. Steady exports of coal, iron and other natural resources to China, contribute to Australia's consistent growth. But now China has slapped tariffs. After Australia called for a probe into the origins of the Wuhan virus. Australia's problems are both external and internal. The time is right for a hard reset ----- both economically and politically.

'Further difficult days ahead': Virus-hit Australia goes into recession

There is no sign of a health-economy trade-off. Countries with low GDP fall have less COVID-19 deaths. India's economy suffered its worst slump on record in April-June, with the gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by 23.9 per cent as the coronavirus-related lockdowns weighed on the already-declining consumer demand and investment.

Countries with low GDP fall have less COVID-19 deaths

India's economy suffered its worst slump on record in April-June, with the gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by 23.9 per cent as the coronavirus-related lockdowns weighed on the already-declining consumer demand and investment.

The GDP contraction in the world's fifth-largest economy compared with 3.1 per cent growth in the preceding January-March quarter and 5.2 per cent expansion in the same period a year back, according to official data released on Monday.

This is the sharpest contraction since quarterly figures started being published in 1996 and worse than what was expected by most analysts.

What is the reason behind this kind of economic carnage?

Most&nbsp;of India and the world went into a severe lockdown in the April to June period. Most economic and business activity came to a halt.

In May — India had announced a 266 billion dollars stimulus package. Free food to the weak and poor. Jobs for migrant workers. Credit guarantees on bank loans and, relief to small businesses.

But, that has not helped cushion the fall. The economy is still crawling out of the lockdown.

Finance minister — Nirmala Sitharaman had seen this coming. Just a few days ago — she said and I quote.

You are facing an ‘act of god’ which might even result in a contraction of the economy. So, here it is — Indian economy's worst contraction on record.

However, it was not just India’s worst-ever quarter. Some of the world's largest economies have not been able to bear the brunt of the pandemic. In the April to June period the US economy contracted by 32.9 percent.

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The United Kingdom by 20.4 per cent, Japan by 27.8 percent.&nbsp;

Road ahead for the Indian economy

The chief economic advisor — Krishnamurthy Subramanian — expects a recovery once India comes completely out of lockdown.

But, he also expects the uncertainty to remain until the pandemic is completely brought under control.

India has finally lifted inter-state movement of vehicles. As goods and services move across the country freely — the Indian economy should begin its upward climb.&nbsp;

But this will be a tough climb. India’s woes won't end in a hurry. The economy is expected to contract by 6 percent in 2020.

India's economy suffered its worst slump on record in April-June, with the gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by 23.9 per cent as the coronavirus-related lockdowns weighed on the already-declining consumer demand and investment.

India's economy suffered its worst slump on record in April-June, with the gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by 23.9 per cent as the coronavirus-related lockdowns weighed on the already-declining consumer demand and investment. The GDP contraction in the world's fifth-largest economy compared with 3.1 per cent growth in the preceding January-March quarter and 5.2 per cent expansion in the same period a year back, according to official data released on Monday. This is the sharpest contraction since quarterly figures started being published in 1996 and worse than what was expected by most analysts. What is the reason behind this kind of economic carnage? Most of India and the world went into a severe lockdown in the April to June period. Most economic and business activity came to a halt. In May — India had announced a 266 billion dollars stimulus package. Free food to the weak and poor. Jobs for migrant workers. Credit guarantees on bank loans and, relief to small businesses. But, that has not helped cushion the fall. The economy is still crawling out of the lockdown. Finance minister — Nirmala Sitharaman had seen this coming. Just a few days ago — she said and I quote. You are facing an ‘act of god’ which might even result in a contraction of the economy. So, here it is — Indian economy's worst contraction on record. However, it was not just India’s worst-ever quarter. Some of the world's largest economies have not been able to bear the brunt of the pandemic. In the April to June period the US economy contracted by 32.9 percent. × The United Kingdom by 20.4 per cent, Japan by 27.8 percent. Road ahead for the Indian economy The chief economic advisor — Krishnamurthy Subramanian — expects a recovery once India comes completely out of lockdown. But, he also expects the uncertainty to remain until the pandemic is completely brought under control. India has finally lifted inter-state movement of vehicles. As goods and services move across the country freely — the Indian economy should begin its upward climb. But this will be a tough climb. India’s woes won't end in a hurry. The economy is expected to contract by 6 percent in 2020.

India’s GDP growth suffers worst-ever crash: Road ahead for the Indian economy

As per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the April-June quarter (Q1) slipped by a sharp 23.9 per cent.

First GDP numbers during COVID times

For the first time in 40 years the GDP of India registered a negative growth. India’s economic growth slips to -23.9% in the first quarter (April-June) of 2020-21.

The first economic contraction since 1980, and maiden quarterly GDP fall on record, follows limited activity during the June quarter amid lockdowns to control the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

The first quarter saw an unprecedented closure of shops, markets, and industries, which forced the wheels of the economy to a standstill. 
 
Except for agriculture, almost all the corners of the economy were severely hit. Though the government had announced a series of reforms and schemes to provide a fillip to the economy, lockdown restrictions and increasing cases of coronavirus kept the economic activity grounded in the first quarter. 
 
The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 5.2 per cent in the corresponding April-June period of 2019-20, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO). 
 
The government had imposed a nationwide lockdown on March 25 to curb the spread of coronavirus infections. 
 
The Centre began easing the lockdown for certain economic activities from April 20 onwards. 
 
Most rating agencies had projected contraction in India's GDP for the first quarter of 2020-21. 
 
China's economy grew by 3.2 per cent in April-June after recording a decline of 6.8 per cent in January-March 2020.

(With inputs from Reuters)

For the first time in 40 years the GDP of India registered a negative growth. India’s economic growth slips to -23.9% in the first quarter (April-June) of 2020-21.

For the first time in 40 years the GDP of India registered a negative growth. India’s economic growth slips to -23.9% in the first quarter (April-June) of 2020-21. The first economic contraction since 1980, and maiden quarterly GDP fall on record, follows limited activity during the June quarter amid lockdowns to control the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. The first quarter saw an unprecedented closure of shops, markets, and industries, which forced the wheels of the economy to a standstill. Except for agriculture, almost all the corners of the economy were severely hit. Though the government had announced a series of reforms and schemes to provide a fillip to the economy, lockdown restrictions and increasing cases of coronavirus kept the economic activity grounded in the first quarter. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 5.2 per cent in the corresponding April-June period of 2019-20, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO). The government had imposed a nationwide lockdown on March 25 to curb the spread of coronavirus infections. The Centre began easing the lockdown for certain economic activities from April 20 onwards. Most rating agencies had projected contraction in India's GDP for the first quarter of 2020-21. China's economy grew by 3.2 per cent in April-June after recording a decline of 6.8 per cent in January-March 2020. (With inputs from Reuters)

GDP Q1 Data: India’s economic growth slips to -23.9%, first contraction in 40 years

Japan's economy shrank a record 7.8 percent in the April-June quarter, the worst contraction in the nation's modern history, data showed Monday, as the coronavirus deepens the country's economic woes.

The contraction from the previous quarter was slightly worse than expectations but is still significantly less severe than declines seen in many other industrial economies.

Still, it is the worst economic contraction for Japan since comparable data became available in 1980, eclipsing the brutal impact of the 2008 global financial crisis.

And some analysts labelled it the worst fall since data began to be compiled in 1955, though a change in calculation methods in 1980 makes the comparison complicated.

It was the third straight quarter of negative growth, confirming a deepening recession for Japan, and raising the prospect that the government will consider pumping further stimulus into the economy.

"The fall of the Japanese economy in April and May under the state of emergency went beyond expectations. Record falls are expected in both internal and external demand," Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Daiichi Life Research Institute, wrote in a note before the official release of the data.

Coronavirus deepens recession

The economy contracted an annualised 27.8 percent, with domestic demand falling 4.8 percent and exports of goods and services plunging 18.5 percent.

But imports fell only 0.5 percent, faring better than the 4.2 percent fall seen in the January-March period.

For the past year to March 2020, Japan's real GDP came to 0.0 percent, compared with a 0.3 percent growth seen in fiscal 2018, the Cabinet Office said.

Japan was already struggling with a stagnating economy and the impact of a consumption tax hike implemented last year before the pandemic hit.

It has seen a smaller coronavirus outbreak compared to some of the worst-hit countries, with infections approaching 55,000 and deaths at slightly under 1,100.

A nationwide state of emergency was imposed as cases spiked in April, but the restrictions were significantly looser than in many countries, with no enforcement mechanism to shutter businesses or keep people at home.&nbsp;

The emergency was lifted in June, and the government has been reluctant to reintroduce measures, even as infections rise again.

Some recovery was seen in Japan after the government lifted the state of emergency, but it was not enough to offset the severe falls felt in April and May, Shinke said.

Hope for recovery

The contraction in April-June compared with the market's expectation of a 7.6 percent contraction, the median forecast of major economists surveyed by the Nikkei business daily.

The figure was less severe than quarter-on-quarter falls in some other major economies, including the United States, which logged a 9.5 percent contraction, and Germany with a 10.1 percent decline for the same quarter.

Japan imposed looser restriction against the coronavirus and fared better than its industrial peers, said Naoya Oshikubo, senior economist at SuMi Trust.

"A collapse in personal consumption... will be the largest single factor behind weak domestic demand. Personal consumption was particularly weak in April-May when the national state of emergency was in effect in Japan," he wrote before the data was published.

"Capital investment was also impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic as uncertainty meant companies put their investment plans on hold," Oshikubo said.

Despite the figures, analysts said the economy could now expect a rebound, with Oshikubo projecting 2.6 growth for the July-September quarter.

"The recovery will likely be driven by rising domestic and external demand in addition to normalisation in Western nations as many countries' lockdown measures are lifted," Oshikubo said.&nbsp;

Personal consumption, which fell 8.2 percent in the April-June quarter, should benefit from a government stimulus payment of 100,000 yen ($939) to all residents of Japan, he said.

Japan's economy shrank a record 7.8 percent in the April-June quarter, the worst contraction in the nation's modern history, data showed Monday, as the coronavirus deepens the country's economic woes.

Japan's economy shrank a record 7.8 percent in the April-June quarter, the worst contraction in the nation's modern history, data showed Monday, as the coronavirus deepens the country's economic woes. The contraction from the previous quarter was slightly worse than expectations but is still significantly less severe than declines seen in many other industrial economies. Still, it is the worst economic contraction for Japan since comparable data became available in 1980, eclipsing the brutal impact of the 2008 global financial crisis. And some analysts labelled it the worst fall since data began to be compiled in 1955, though a change in calculation methods in 1980 makes the comparison complicated. It was the third straight quarter of negative growth, confirming a deepening recession for Japan, and raising the prospect that the government will consider pumping further stimulus into the economy. "The fall of the Japanese economy in April and May under the state of emergency went beyond expectations. Record falls are expected in both internal and external demand," Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Daiichi Life Research Institute, wrote in a note before the official release of the data. Coronavirus deepens recession The economy contracted an annualised 27.8 percent, with domestic demand falling 4.8 percent and exports of goods and services plunging 18.5 percent. But imports fell only 0.5 percent, faring better than the 4.2 percent fall seen in the January-March period. For the past year to March 2020, Japan's real GDP came to 0.0 percent, compared with a 0.3 percent growth seen in fiscal 2018, the Cabinet Office said. Japan was already struggling with a stagnating economy and the impact of a consumption tax hike implemented last year before the pandemic hit. It has seen a smaller coronavirus outbreak compared to some of the worst-hit countries, with infections approaching 55,000 and deaths at slightly under 1,100. A nationwide state of emergency was imposed as cases spiked in April, but the restrictions were significantly looser than in many countries, with no enforcement mechanism to shutter businesses or keep people at home. The emergency was lifted in June, and the government has been reluctant to reintroduce measures, even as infections rise again. Some recovery was seen in Japan after the government lifted the state of emergency, but it was not enough to offset the severe falls felt in April and May, Shinke said. Hope for recovery The contraction in April-June compared with the market's expectation of a 7.6 percent contraction, the median forecast of major economists surveyed by the Nikkei business daily. The figure was less severe than quarter-on-quarter falls in some other major economies, including the United States, which logged a 9.5 percent contraction, and Germany with a 10.1 percent decline for the same quarter. Japan imposed looser restriction against the coronavirus and fared better than its industrial peers, said Naoya Oshikubo, senior economist at SuMi Trust. "A collapse in personal consumption... will be the largest single factor behind weak domestic demand. Personal consumption was particularly weak in April-May when the national state of emergency was in effect in Japan," he wrote before the data was published. "Capital investment was also impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic as uncertainty meant companies put their investment plans on hold," Oshikubo said. Despite the figures, analysts said the economy could now expect a rebound, with Oshikubo projecting 2.6 growth for the July-September quarter. "The recovery will likely be driven by rising domestic and external demand in addition to normalisation in Western nations as many countries' lockdown measures are lifted," Oshikubo said. Personal consumption, which fell 8.2 percent in the April-June quarter, should benefit from a government stimulus payment of 100,000 yen ($939) to all residents of Japan, he said.

Japan reports its worst GDP on record: Economy shrinks record 7.8% in April-June

The last fully intact ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic has collapsed, losing more than 40% of its area in just two days at the end of July, researchers said.&nbsp;

The Milne Ice Shelf is at the fringe of Ellesmere Island, in the sparsely populated northern Canadian territory of Nunavut.

“Above normal air temperatures, offshore winds and open water in front of the ice shelf are all part of the recipe for ice shelf break up,” the Canadian Ice Service said on Twitter when it announced the loss on Sunday. 
 
<a href="https://www.wionews.com/science-tech/nearly-half-of-worlds-beaches-disappearing-due-to-climate-change-study-283976">Also Read:&nbsp;Nearly half of world's beaches disappearing due to climate change</a>

“Entire cities are that size. These are big pieces of ice,” said Luke Copland, a glaciologist at the University of Ottawa who was part of the research team studying the Milne Ice Shelf.

The shelf’s area shrank by about 80 square kilometers. By comparison, the island of Manhattan in New York covers roughly 60 square kilometers.

“This was the largest remaining intact ice shelf, and it’s disintegrated, basically,” Copland said.&nbsp;

The Arctic has been warming at twice the global rate for the last 30 years, due to a process known as Arctic amplification. But this year, temperatures in the polar region have been intense. The polar sea ice hit its lowest extent for July in 40 years. Record heat and wildfires have scorched Siberian Russia.

Summer in the Canadian Arctic this year in particular has been 5 degrees Celsius above the 30-year average, Copland said.

That has threatened smaller ice caps, which can melt quickly because they do not have the bulk that larger glaciers have to stay cold. As a glacier disappears, more bedrock is exposed, which then heats up and accelerates the melting process.

“The very small ones, we’re losing them dramatically,” he said, citing researchers’ reviews of satellite imagery. “You feel like you’re on a sinking island chasing these features, and these are large features. It’s not as if it’s a little tiny patch of ice you find in your garden.”&nbsp;

The ice shelf collapse on Ellesmere Island also meant the loss of the northern hemisphere’s last known epishelf lake, a geographic feature in which a body of freshwater is dammed by the ice shelf and floats atop ocean water.

A research camp, including instruments for measuring water flow through the ice shelf, was lost when the shelf collapsed. “It is lucky we were not on the ice shelf when this happened,” said researcher Derek Mueller of Carleton University in Ottawa, in an Aug. 2 blog post.

Ellesmere also lost its two St. Patrick Bay ice caps this summer.

“We saw them going, like someone with terminal cancer. It was only a matter of time,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado.

Serreze and other NSIDC scientists had published a 2017 study predicting the ice caps were likely to disappear within five years. The ice caps were believed to have formed several centuries ago.

The vanishing was confirmed last month, when NASA satellite shots of the region revealed a complete lack of snow and ice, said Serreze, who studied the caps as a graduate student on his first trip to the Arctic years ago. At the time, he said, the caps had seemed like immovable parts of the geography.&nbsp;

“When I was there in the 1980s I knew every square inch of those ice caps,” he said. “You have the memories. It’s like your first girlfriend.”

Meanwhile, another two ice caps on Ellesmere - called Murray and Simmons - are also diminishing and are likely to disappear within 10 years, Serreze said.

The last fully intact ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic has collapsed, losing more than 40% of its area in just two days at the end of July, researchers said. The Milne Ice Shelf is at the fringe of Ellesmere Island, in the sparsely populated northern Canadian territory of Nunavut.

The last fully intact ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic has collapsed, losing more than 40% of its area in just two days at the end of July, researchers said. The Milne Ice Shelf is at the fringe of Ellesmere Island, in the sparsely populated northern Canadian territory of Nunavut. “Above normal air temperatures, offshore winds and open water in front of the ice shelf are all part of the recipe for ice shelf break up,” the Canadian Ice Service said on Twitter when it announced the loss on Sunday. Also Read: Nearly half of world's beaches disappearing due to climate change “Entire cities are that size. These are big pieces of ice,” said Luke Copland, a glaciologist at the University of Ottawa who was part of the research team studying the Milne Ice Shelf. The shelf’s area shrank by about 80 square kilometers. By comparison, the island of Manhattan in New York covers roughly 60 square kilometers. “This was the largest remaining intact ice shelf, and it’s disintegrated, basically,” Copland said. The Arctic has been warming at twice the global rate for the last 30 years, due to a process known as Arctic amplification. But this year, temperatures in the polar region have been intense. The polar sea ice hit its lowest extent for July in 40 years. Record heat and wildfires have scorched Siberian Russia. Summer in the Canadian Arctic this year in particular has been 5 degrees Celsius above the 30-year average, Copland said. That has threatened smaller ice caps, which can melt quickly because they do not have the bulk that larger glaciers have to stay cold. As a glacier disappears, more bedrock is exposed, which then heats up and accelerates the melting process. “The very small ones, we’re losing them dramatically,” he said, citing researchers’ reviews of satellite imagery. “You feel like you’re on a sinking island chasing these features, and these are large features. It’s not as if it’s a little tiny patch of ice you find in your garden.” The ice shelf collapse on Ellesmere Island also meant the loss of the northern hemisphere’s last known epishelf lake, a geographic feature in which a body of freshwater is dammed by the ice shelf and floats atop ocean water. A research camp, including instruments for measuring water flow through the ice shelf, was lost when the shelf collapsed. “It is lucky we were not on the ice shelf when this happened,” said researcher Derek Mueller of Carleton University in Ottawa, in an Aug. 2 blog post. Ellesmere also lost its two St. Patrick Bay ice caps this summer. “We saw them going, like someone with terminal cancer. It was only a matter of time,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado. Serreze and other NSIDC scientists had published a 2017 study predicting the ice caps were likely to disappear within five years. The ice caps were believed to have formed several centuries ago. The vanishing was confirmed last month, when NASA satellite shots of the region revealed a complete lack of snow and ice, said Serreze, who studied the caps as a graduate student on his first trip to the Arctic years ago. At the time, he said, the caps had seemed like immovable parts of the geography. “When I was there in the 1980s I knew every square inch of those ice caps,” he said. “You have the memories. It’s like your first girlfriend.” Meanwhile, another two ice caps on Ellesmere - called Murray and Simmons - are also diminishing and are likely to disappear within 10 years, Serreze said.

Record Arctic heat continues, Canada’s last intact ice shelf collapses into the sea

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