After riding <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/uk-warns-china-of-serious-consequences-if-hong-kong-rights-not-honoured-232315">China</a>'s demand train for nearly two decades, Asia's coal industry is looking to a future of smaller markets and slimmer pickings, as buying declines in the world's second-biggest economy and climate change concerns blunt demand.

By far the biggest user of coal-fired power, China is buying less thermal coal from global markets, said delegates to Asia's premier coal conference last month in Bali, both as renewables gain market share and as it digs up more of its own supply.

A backlash against coal is also growing in the West. Last week, investors managing nearly half the world's invested capital demanded ahead of a Group of 20 summits in Osaka that governments take urgent action on climate change.

Delegates to Coaltrans in Bali, <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/indonesian-troops-flood-jakarta-streets-after-post-election-riots-220989">Indonesia</a>, however, said that while coal's glory days are done, reports of its imminent demise have been greatly exaggerated.

"Coal will continue to provide low-cost energy. We are looking at increasing demand in Southeast Asia, so we are still positive," said Hendri Tan, marketing director at PT Adaro Indonesia, a unit of PT Adaro Energy, Indonesia's second-biggest coal producer.

Indonesia is the world's biggest exporter of thermal coal, used primarily for power generation, shipping out 429 million tonnes last year and accounting for 43% of the 1 billion-tonne-a-year seaborne market, according to Australian government data.

Around 124 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity is under development in Southeast and South Asia, both key markets for Indonesia, and that is expected to offset declining demand from China, said the chairman of Indonesia Coal Mining Association, Pandu Sjahrir.

Indonesia itself is expected to add some 50 million tonnes a year of coal-fired power demand by 2023, he said, a rise of 55% that would make it one of Asia's biggest consumers.

As China takes less, economies like India, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Philippines are also expected to pick up the slack, delegates said.

Between 2014 and 2018, China's coal demand fell by 2.4%, while India's swelled by 16.7%, according to BP's Statistical Review of World Energy report this year. Over the same period, Vietnam's coal use grew by 65% and Indonesia's by 36%, helping to offset falls in the United States, Japan and Germany as well.

 
Beach parties end, belly dancers, stay home

Indonesia shot to prominence as a coal producer last decade as it dug out and shipped the fuel to meet power demand from China, eventually outstripping then leader Australia.

As China's manufacturing might grow, so too did its hunger for electricity, turning it into a net thermal coal importer around 2004. That was a bonanza for miners and helped establish Coaltrans in Bali as the industry's main event in Asia.

 
During the boom years, companies would battle to outdo each other at Coaltrans with lavish beach parties. One Uzbekistan company flew in belly dancers to entertain potential customers drinking free-flow vodka and eating caviar, delegates said.

"People were throwing money at everything," said SMG Consultants' Alistair MacDonald, who has attended Coaltrans since 2000. But times have changed, he said.

"The bankers aren't here. A lot of the services like insurers aren't here any more," he said. "It's a lot more domestic (Indonesian) players, and they want to be perceived as energy companies, not as coal companies."

Staring at prospects of tougher conditions ahead, Indonesia's large thermal coal miners are diversifying into other geographies and other industries, Sacha Winzenried, a partner at PriceWaterhouseCoopers, told Reuters.

"They are looking into renewables, other infrastructure, supply chain support such as water, utilities, shipping and logistics," Winzenried said.

Indonesia's Adaro Energy bought an Australian coal mine from Rio Tinto last year. And Indonesian state coal miner Bukit Asam is targeting commercial operation of four coal processing plants in South Sumatra that would extract gas from, as well as burn, coal.

Financing dries up

Delegates also noted the difficulty of getting financing for their businesses, working capital and further investments, and some were pessimistic on the coal industry's longevity.

One mining engineer in his fifties, who had spent most of his career in coal at a major miner and also had an MBA, saw his career options as limited.

"I've spent twenty years in coal. Where can I go next?" he said. "I would not recommend any young people join this industry."

Still, renewables are not expected to make the same inroads in emerging Asian economies as in developed nations, because Asian governments are working to provide cheap baseload power from coal, and renewables can't compete on scale or price, said an industry analyst, declining to be named due to his listed company's policy.

"Less coal will mean a less polluted world," he said. "But if you don't want (coal) to exist, then you have to come up with a realistic alternative."

After riding China's demand train for nearly two decades, Asia's coal industry is looking to a future of smaller markets and slimmer pickings, as buying declines in the world's second-biggest economy and climate change concerns blunt demand.

After riding China's demand train for nearly two decades, Asia's coal industry is looking to a future of smaller markets and slimmer pickings, as buying declines in the world's second-biggest economy and climate change concerns blunt demand. By far the biggest user of coal-fired power, China is buying less thermal coal from global markets, said delegates to Asia's premier coal conference last month in Bali, both as renewables gain market share and as it digs up more of its own supply. A backlash against coal is also growing in the West. Last week, investors managing nearly half the world's invested capital demanded ahead of a Group of 20 summits in Osaka that governments take urgent action on climate change. Delegates to Coaltrans in Bali, Indonesia, however, said that while coal's glory days are done, reports of its imminent demise have been greatly exaggerated. "Coal will continue to provide low-cost energy. We are looking at increasing demand in Southeast Asia, so we are still positive," said Hendri Tan, marketing director at PT Adaro Indonesia, a unit of PT Adaro Energy, Indonesia's second-biggest coal producer. Indonesia is the world's biggest exporter of thermal coal, used primarily for power generation, shipping out 429 million tonnes last year and accounting for 43% of the 1 billion-tonne-a-year seaborne market, according to Australian government data. Around 124 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity is under development in Southeast and South Asia, both key markets for Indonesia, and that is expected to offset declining demand from China, said the chairman of Indonesia Coal Mining Association, Pandu Sjahrir. Indonesia itself is expected to add some 50 million tonnes a year of coal-fired power demand by 2023, he said, a rise of 55% that would make it one of Asia's biggest consumers. As China takes less, economies like India, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Philippines are also expected to pick up the slack, delegates said. Between 2014 and 2018, China's coal demand fell by 2.4%, while India's swelled by 16.7%, according to BP's Statistical Review of World Energy report this year. Over the same period, Vietnam's coal use grew by 65% and Indonesia's by 36%, helping to offset falls in the United States, Japan and Germany as well. Beach parties end, belly dancers, stay home Indonesia shot to prominence as a coal producer last decade as it dug out and shipped the fuel to meet power demand from China, eventually outstripping then leader Australia. As China's manufacturing might grow, so too did its hunger for electricity, turning it into a net thermal coal importer around 2004. That was a bonanza for miners and helped establish Coaltrans in Bali as the industry's main event in Asia. During the boom years, companies would battle to outdo each other at Coaltrans with lavish beach parties. One Uzbekistan company flew in belly dancers to entertain potential customers drinking free-flow vodka and eating caviar, delegates said. "People were throwing money at everything," said SMG Consultants' Alistair MacDonald, who has attended Coaltrans since 2000. But times have changed, he said. "The bankers aren't here. A lot of the services like insurers aren't here any more," he said. "It's a lot more domestic (Indonesian) players, and they want to be perceived as energy companies, not as coal companies." Staring at prospects of tougher conditions ahead, Indonesia's large thermal coal miners are diversifying into other geographies and other industries, Sacha Winzenried, a partner at PriceWaterhouseCoopers, told Reuters. "They are looking into renewables, other infrastructure, supply chain support such as water, utilities, shipping and logistics," Winzenried said. Indonesia's Adaro Energy bought an Australian coal mine from Rio Tinto last year. And Indonesian state coal miner Bukit Asam is targeting commercial operation of four coal processing plants in South Sumatra that would extract gas from, as well as burn, coal. Financing dries up Delegates also noted the difficulty of getting financing for their businesses, working capital and further investments, and some were pessimistic on the coal industry's longevity. One mining engineer in his fifties, who had spent most of his career in coal at a major miner and also had an MBA, saw his career options as limited. "I've spent twenty years in coal. Where can I go next?" he said. "I would not recommend any young people join this industry." Still, renewables are not expected to make the same inroads in emerging Asian economies as in developed nations, because Asian governments are working to provide cheap baseload power from coal, and renewables can't compete on scale or price, said an industry analyst, declining to be named due to his listed company's policy. "Less coal will mean a less polluted world," he said. "But if you don't want (coal) to exist, then you have to come up with a realistic alternative."

Future tense: Fastest-growing market Asia rethinks coal's prospects

Aid workers sounded the alarm on Wednesday about health and hygiene conditions in a makeshift forest camp in <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/karadzic-handed-life-sentence-for-bosnia-war-crimes-204596">Bosnia</a> for hundreds of migrants as they face the spread of scabies and other diseases as well as food shortages.

Over the past 10 days, municipal authorities in Bihac have moved up to 700 migrants from Asia and North Africa who had been sleeping rough in the town to an improvised tent settlement at a former landfill some 8 km (5 miles) from the Croatian border.

The Red Cross is the only relief agency providing hot meals and hygiene items to the migrants at the site at Vucjak and has erected about 50 tents so far as well as improvised quarantine arrangements for the sick.

The European Union and UN agencies have criticised sanitary conditions at the site, which they also say is located in an area still peppered with landmines left over from the 1990s wars in Bosnia.

"The health situation is alarming. Many people are already infected with scabies and there are other health problems too," said Katarina Zoric, a spokeswoman for the International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC).

Scabies is a highly infectious skin disease.

Zoric said the Red Cross could provide only basic medical aid but said some people at the camp were reportedly suffering from tuberculosis and hepatitis. Some had been brought to the camp after surgery.

Snakes

Bosnia, which is not an EU member and was largely bypassed by refugees and asylum seekers during Europe's 2015 migrant crisis, has seen an increase in migrant arrivals since EU members Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia closed their borders.

More than 33,300 migrants have entered Bosnia since last year, of whom around 9,000 have settled in the Bihac area hoping to cross the border into Croatia and thence to western Europe.

The tents at Vucjak are pitched among piles of garbage and muddy pools following recent rainfall. The people used water from tanks to wash in the scorching heat.

"This is a jungle camp," said Mohammad Kamran Khan from Pakistan. "Every day I kill one snake, two snakes, or other animals (that pose a risk to the migrants)."

Zoric said the camp was running out of some food supplies and called for international aid.

The EU said on Tuesday it would provide 14.8 million euros ($16.8 million) to address the needs of migrants and refugees stranded in Bosnia.

The mayor of Bihac, Suhret Fazlic, said he hoped the EU would press state institutions, which are in charge of migration and asylum policies, to take responsibility for the migrants.

"Bihac was literally invaded by migrants," Fazlic told Reuters, adding that the town of 50,000 had provided shelter for at least 5,000 people. He said he was not happy with the Vucjak site and stressed it was just a temporary transit centre.

"A migrant crisis, which is a global problem, cannot be solved in Bihac. It must be solved at the state level, at the regional level and in cooperation with the European Union."

Police sent back to the camp on Wednesday three groups of people who had been found exhausted in the woods. Croatian police had returned them to Bosnia after they walked over a nearby mountain.

"The Croatian police beat us as if we were animals," said Hasnen Arshad, 17, from Pakistan.

Arshad and other migrants also said the Croatian police had smashed their mobile phones and had taken money from them.

"What to do now?", he asked. "No money, no mobile."

Croatian police have repeatedly denied using strongarm tactics against migrants.

Aid workers sounded the alarm on Wednesday about health and hygiene conditions in a makeshift forest camp in Bosnia for hundreds of migrants as they face the spread of scabies and other diseases as well as food shortages.

Aid workers sounded the alarm on Wednesday about health and hygiene conditions in a makeshift forest camp in Bosnia for hundreds of migrants as they face the spread of scabies and other diseases as well as food shortages. Over the past 10 days, municipal authorities in Bihac have moved up to 700 migrants from Asia and North Africa who had been sleeping rough in the town to an improvised tent settlement at a former landfill some 8 km (5 miles) from the Croatian border. The Red Cross is the only relief agency providing hot meals and hygiene items to the migrants at the site at Vucjak and has erected about 50 tents so far as well as improvised quarantine arrangements for the sick. The European Union and UN agencies have criticised sanitary conditions at the site, which they also say is located in an area still peppered with landmines left over from the 1990s wars in Bosnia. "The health situation is alarming. Many people are already infected with scabies and there are other health problems too," said Katarina Zoric, a spokeswoman for the International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC). Scabies is a highly infectious skin disease. Zoric said the Red Cross could provide only basic medical aid but said some people at the camp were reportedly suffering from tuberculosis and hepatitis. Some had been brought to the camp after surgery. Snakes Bosnia, which is not an EU member and was largely bypassed by refugees and asylum seekers during Europe's 2015 migrant crisis, has seen an increase in migrant arrivals since EU members Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia closed their borders. More than 33,300 migrants have entered Bosnia since last year, of whom around 9,000 have settled in the Bihac area hoping to cross the border into Croatia and thence to western Europe. The tents at Vucjak are pitched among piles of garbage and muddy pools following recent rainfall. The people used water from tanks to wash in the scorching heat. "This is a jungle camp," said Mohammad Kamran Khan from Pakistan. "Every day I kill one snake, two snakes, or other animals (that pose a risk to the migrants)." Zoric said the camp was running out of some food supplies and called for international aid. The EU said on Tuesday it would provide 14.8 million euros ($16.8 million) to address the needs of migrants and refugees stranded in Bosnia. The mayor of Bihac, Suhret Fazlic, said he hoped the EU would press state institutions, which are in charge of migration and asylum policies, to take responsibility for the migrants. "Bihac was literally invaded by migrants," Fazlic told Reuters, adding that the town of 50,000 had provided shelter for at least 5,000 people. He said he was not happy with the Vucjak site and stressed it was just a temporary transit centre. "A migrant crisis, which is a global problem, cannot be solved in Bihac. It must be solved at the state level, at the regional level and in cooperation with the European Union." Police sent back to the camp on Wednesday three groups of people who had been found exhausted in the woods. Croatian police had returned them to Bosnia after they walked over a nearby mountain. "The Croatian police beat us as if we were animals," said Hasnen Arshad, 17, from Pakistan. Arshad and other migrants also said the Croatian police had smashed their mobile phones and had taken money from them. "What to do now?", he asked. "No money, no mobile." Croatian police have repeatedly denied using strongarm tactics against migrants.

Diseases, food shortages plague migrant 'jungle camp' in Bosnia

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/sri-lanka-bombings-death-toll-from-terror-attack-rises-to-310-40-people-arrested-212788">Sri Lanka</a> is likely to raise $2 billion through 5-year and 10-year sovereign bonds launched on Monday, two government officials told Reuters, as the Indian Ocean island nation tapped global capital markets for the second time in three months.

The South Asian nation's decision to capitalise on favourable market conditions comes two months after suicide bombers killed more than 250 people in attacks at churches and luxury hotels on <a href="https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/multiple-blasts-in-sri-lanka-churches-hit-during-easter-sunday-mass-212200">Easter Sunday</a>.&nbsp;

That attack has badly dented the Sri Lankan economy, in particular deterring many thousands of foreign tourists from coming to the island.

"We are planning to raise $500 million from 5-year bonds and $1.5 billion through 10-year bonds," said a senior government official, who declined to be identified because he is not authorised to talk to media.

"Both bonds have been oversubscribed three times during the day's book building process in Asia and Europe alone. We are waiting for US markets to finalise the deal."

A senior finance ministry official also said the total size of the bond borrowing will be $2 billion.

A source who is aware of the deal said the price of 5-year bonds had tightened to near 6.4% from the initial price guidance of 6.6%, while 10-year bond price also got tightened to 7.6% from the initial price guidance of 7.8%.

The sale is part of plans to raise funds via sovereign bonds, as the government seeks new funds to repay loans that are maturing.

In March, Sri Lanka sold $1 billion in five-year bonds with a coupon of 6.85 per cent and $1.4 billion in 10-year bonds with a coupon of 7.85 per cent and the borrowing costs were lower than originally predicted.

The 10-year bond sold in March last traded at 7.302% and the five-year bond last traded at 6.258%, Refinitiv data showed.

BOC International, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JPMorgan, SMBC Nikko and Standard Chartered Bank, who were the lead managers for the $2.4 billion borrowings in March, are the joint book runners for the bond sale.

The sale of new global sovereign bonds comes as Sri Lanka is struggling to repay foreign loans, with a record $5.9 billion due this year, including $2.6 billion in the first quarter and more than $1.2 billion in the second, central bank data showed.

All three major rating agencies downgraded Sri Lanka's debt after <a href="https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/sri-lanka-mps-defy-president-maithripala-sirisena-to-resume-easter-attack-probe-226346">President Maithripala Sirisena</a> sacked his prime minister in October and replaced him with pro-China former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, though that decision was later reversed.

But the seven-week-long crisis hurt the rupee and drove sovereign bond yields higher, straining state finances.

Sri Lanka is unlikely to hit its full-year economic growth target of 3-4% following the bombings, junior finance minister Eran Wickramaratne told Reuters last month. A Reuters poll has forecast growth to slump to its lowest in nearly two decades this year.

Sri Lanka is likely to raise $2 billion through 5-year and 10-year sovereign bonds launched on Monday, two government officials told Reuters, as the Indian Ocean island nation tapped global capital markets for the second time in three months.

Sri Lanka is likely to raise $2 billion through 5-year and 10-year sovereign bonds launched on Monday, two government officials told Reuters, as the Indian Ocean island nation tapped global capital markets for the second time in three months. The South Asian nation's decision to capitalise on favourable market conditions comes two months after suicide bombers killed more than 250 people in attacks at churches and luxury hotels on Easter Sunday. That attack has badly dented the Sri Lankan economy, in particular deterring many thousands of foreign tourists from coming to the island. "We are planning to raise $500 million from 5-year bonds and $1.5 billion through 10-year bonds," said a senior government official, who declined to be identified because he is not authorised to talk to media. "Both bonds have been oversubscribed three times during the day's book building process in Asia and Europe alone. We are waiting for US markets to finalise the deal." A senior finance ministry official also said the total size of the bond borrowing will be $2 billion. A source who is aware of the deal said the price of 5-year bonds had tightened to near 6.4% from the initial price guidance of 6.6%, while 10-year bond price also got tightened to 7.6% from the initial price guidance of 7.8%. The sale is part of plans to raise funds via sovereign bonds, as the government seeks new funds to repay loans that are maturing. In March, Sri Lanka sold $1 billion in five-year bonds with a coupon of 6.85 per cent and $1.4 billion in 10-year bonds with a coupon of 7.85 per cent and the borrowing costs were lower than originally predicted. The 10-year bond sold in March last traded at 7.302% and the five-year bond last traded at 6.258%, Refinitiv data showed. BOC International, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JPMorgan, SMBC Nikko and Standard Chartered Bank, who were the lead managers for the $2.4 billion borrowings in March, are the joint book runners for the bond sale. The sale of new global sovereign bonds comes as Sri Lanka is struggling to repay foreign loans, with a record $5.9 billion due this year, including $2.6 billion in the first quarter and more than $1.2 billion in the second, central bank data showed. All three major rating agencies downgraded Sri Lanka's debt after President Maithripala Sirisena sacked his prime minister in October and replaced him with pro-China former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, though that decision was later reversed. But the seven-week-long crisis hurt the rupee and drove sovereign bond yields higher, straining state finances. Sri Lanka is unlikely to hit its full-year economic growth target of 3-4% following the bombings, junior finance minister Eran Wickramaratne told Reuters last month. A Reuters poll has forecast growth to slump to its lowest in nearly two decades this year.

Sri Lanka likely to raise $2 billion via sovereign bonds: Government officials

Thousands of protesters who had blockaded police headquarters in Asia’s leading financial centre had mostly dispersed by Saturday morning with some roads reopened for traffic as normal, but it remained unclear whether further mass protests would take place.

Hong Kong: Protesters' Demands Still Unmet

The leadership crisis is continuing in the world. Despite their economic might, the leadership in Europe, the US, UK, China and Russia are battling severe challenges. Most headlines in global media are about crises in these regions.&nbsp;

If we step back and look at the conflict zones, there are more in the developed world than in emerging economies. The trade flare-up between US and China is not surprising if you look at economic history. North America and Europe have dominated the global economy for so long that they are shaken up by competitive behaviour.&nbsp;

Remember the 1980s when Japan rose to a level when it was buying up companies in the US. The entire country stood up to demonise the rise of Japan amid fears that most American companies would be acquired by the Asian giants.&nbsp;

When the Asian tigers climbed up the economic ladder in the 1990s, there was excitement and anxiety in equal measure. While their rise expanded the markets for Western companies, it also created firms that could successfully compete with American and European giants.&nbsp;

The large conglomerates from South Korea, smart services companies from Singapore and low-cost manufacturing outfits in Philippines offered continuing competition to Western companies.&nbsp;

Europe is facing a crisis caused by Brexit and the looming threat of Russia. Between the self-inflicted problems of UK and Russia’s attempts to take back its old territories, Europe is focused on its own immediate future.&nbsp;

The rise of China has brought back fears of Japan in the minds of the American government. Hence, the US-China trade war. While Japan wanted to build its economic strengths, China is clear about being a global geo-political influence, prompting the US to take on them. European Union (EU) members are split on China since some are keen to take all the support they can for their stagnating economies.&nbsp;

The resulting chaos in the developed world is driving a new wave of leadership to take charge of various regions in the world. They are now reducing the influence of large economies by deciding what is in their own interest.&nbsp;

In Africa, leaders like Paul Kagame, President of Rwanda, are showing the way ahead for the continent. Rwanda has emerged as economic dynamo and also a key member of the increasingly cohesive East African Community.

In recent months, it has taken big strides to reduce its dependence on aid while encouraging FDI.&nbsp;

Volkswagen has set up a factory in the country while a plan is being rolled out to convert its capital Kigali into a global financial centre. “We are offering ourselves to the world as proof of concept country. We are inviting companies to test their ideas for Africa in Rwanda. If it works here, it can be scaled up in the region,” Richard Sezibera, foreign minister of Rwanda, told me in a conversation recently.&nbsp;

The reforms for the African Union initiated by President Kagame will help the countries cooperate among themselves. Similarly the Smart Africa initiative of 24 countries triggered by President Kagame is working to use technology and broadband access to create knowledge economies in the region.&nbsp;

Leaders in the African continent realise that overdependence on the EU and the US will be counterproductive. They have to lead their own way if they seek genuine economic independence.&nbsp;

The world was seemingly stable when US and Europe dictated the global economic order. Armed with their economic might and multilateral institutions controlled by them, they were able to create a global market for their products. They were not so open about allowing global products to enter their own market. After spending decades trying to open up emerging markets, the Western economies are busy closing their own.&nbsp;

At the Horasis Global Meeting in Lisbon earlier this year, it was clear that the EU and the US will have to reconcile to a new world order where they would have to give space to leadership from other parts of the world. “While vigorous nationalism is rising, countries should avoid isolation caused by protectionism,” Frank-Jürgen Richter, chairman of Horasis, said.&nbsp;

Globalisation will work only if it inspires goodwill and is conducted transparently, said Jose Manuel Barroso, vice chairman, Goldman Sachs International and former President of the European Commission.&nbsp;

“Currently those who take initiatives are on the extremes, what we need is a more enlightened leadership: not only political, but corporate leadership as well,” he stated.&nbsp;

In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is driving change not just for India, but also countries in the Indian Ocean and the BIMSTEC region. The BIMSTEC countries include Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar and Bhutan.&nbsp;

At the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting in Bishkek, Modi made it clear that emerging markets will create their own growth path. While collaboration with western economies will remain important, self-interest will influence economic policies. Modi is pursuing strong relations with China, Russia, EU and US independently, to carve a clear position for India in the world.&nbsp;

The conflict among the economic giants will fester and could even escalate over the next few years. This is now the ideal time for the new wave of leadership to control the destinies of its people, long in the hands of colonial and neo-colonial forces. The billions in Asia and Africa deserve this shift in power.&nbsp; 
 
&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-rattling-old-world-order-2762411">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp;

&nbsp;

The leadership crisis is continuing in the world. Despite their economic might, the leadership in Europe, the US, UK, China and Russia are battling severe challenges.

The leadership crisis is continuing in the world. Despite their economic might, the leadership in Europe, the US, UK, China and Russia are battling severe challenges. Most headlines in global media are about crises in these regions. If we step back and look at the conflict zones, there are more in the developed world than in emerging economies. The trade flare-up between US and China is not surprising if you look at economic history. North America and Europe have dominated the global economy for so long that they are shaken up by competitive behaviour. Remember the 1980s when Japan rose to a level when it was buying up companies in the US. The entire country stood up to demonise the rise of Japan amid fears that most American companies would be acquired by the Asian giants. When the Asian tigers climbed up the economic ladder in the 1990s, there was excitement and anxiety in equal measure. While their rise expanded the markets for Western companies, it also created firms that could successfully compete with American and European giants. The large conglomerates from South Korea, smart services companies from Singapore and low-cost manufacturing outfits in Philippines offered continuing competition to Western companies. Europe is facing a crisis caused by Brexit and the looming threat of Russia. Between the self-inflicted problems of UK and Russia’s attempts to take back its old territories, Europe is focused on its own immediate future. The rise of China has brought back fears of Japan in the minds of the American government. Hence, the US-China trade war. While Japan wanted to build its economic strengths, China is clear about being a global geo-political influence, prompting the US to take on them. European Union (EU) members are split on China since some are keen to take all the support they can for their stagnating economies. The resulting chaos in the developed world is driving a new wave of leadership to take charge of various regions in the world. They are now reducing the influence of large economies by deciding what is in their own interest. In Africa, leaders like Paul Kagame, President of Rwanda, are showing the way ahead for the continent. Rwanda has emerged as economic dynamo and also a key member of the increasingly cohesive East African Community. In recent months, it has taken big strides to reduce its dependence on aid while encouraging FDI. Volkswagen has set up a factory in the country while a plan is being rolled out to convert its capital Kigali into a global financial centre. “We are offering ourselves to the world as proof of concept country. We are inviting companies to test their ideas for Africa in Rwanda. If it works here, it can be scaled up in the region,” Richard Sezibera, foreign minister of Rwanda, told me in a conversation recently. The reforms for the African Union initiated by President Kagame will help the countries cooperate among themselves. Similarly the Smart Africa initiative of 24 countries triggered by President Kagame is working to use technology and broadband access to create knowledge economies in the region. Leaders in the African continent realise that overdependence on the EU and the US will be counterproductive. They have to lead their own way if they seek genuine economic independence. The world was seemingly stable when US and Europe dictated the global economic order. Armed with their economic might and multilateral institutions controlled by them, they were able to create a global market for their products. They were not so open about allowing global products to enter their own market. After spending decades trying to open up emerging markets, the Western economies are busy closing their own. At the Horasis Global Meeting in Lisbon earlier this year, it was clear that the EU and the US will have to reconcile to a new world order where they would have to give space to leadership from other parts of the world. “While vigorous nationalism is rising, countries should avoid isolation caused by protectionism,” Frank-Jürgen Richter, chairman of Horasis, said. Globalisation will work only if it inspires goodwill and is conducted transparently, said Jose Manuel Barroso, vice chairman, Goldman Sachs International and former President of the European Commission. “Currently those who take initiatives are on the extremes, what we need is a more enlightened leadership: not only political, but corporate leadership as well,” he stated. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is driving change not just for India, but also countries in the Indian Ocean and the BIMSTEC region. The BIMSTEC countries include Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar and Bhutan. At the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting in Bishkek, Modi made it clear that emerging markets will create their own growth path. While collaboration with western economies will remain important, self-interest will influence economic policies. Modi is pursuing strong relations with China, Russia, EU and US independently, to carve a clear position for India in the world. The conflict among the economic giants will fester and could even escalate over the next few years. This is now the ideal time for the new wave of leadership to control the destinies of its people, long in the hands of colonial and neo-colonial forces. The billions in Asia and Africa deserve this shift in power. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Rattling old world order: Emerging markets should take charge

A day after PM Modi strongly raised the issue of terror at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Kyrgyzstan, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar called it the " gravest threat" that "we face in Asia today" at a summit in neighbouring Tajikistan.

Speaking at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia or CICA Summit in Tajik capital Dushanbe, EAM said, "Many CICA members are victims of terrorism and should be clear that terrorists and their victims must never be equated".

At the summit, New Delhi called for early finalisation of the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism or CCIT which was proposed by India in 2016 and calls for a common definition on terror.

On regional connectivity initiatives, India reiterated that connectivity projects should be "inclusive, sustainable, transparent and respect the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity", a message for Bejing, whose CPEC or China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).&nbsp;

CPEC is part of China's mega connectivity plan - Belt and Road Initiative which plans to connect China with the rest of Asia and beyond.

CICA is a 26 member grouping based in Kazakhstan.

On Afghanistan, New Delhi said, "all initiatives and processes must include all sections of Afghan society, including the legitimately elected government", a statement which shows India's continued support to President Ashraf Ghani-led government who seems to be isolated in US-Taliban talks and Russian initiatives on Afghanistan.

On the sidelines of the CICA summit, EAM Jaishankar met Vice President of Vietnam Mme Đặng Thị Ngọc Thịnh, Bahrain's Foreign Minister Khalid Al Khalifa, Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and Bangladesh's AK Abdul Momen.&nbsp;

A day after PM Modi strongly raised the issue of terror at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Kyrgyzstan, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar called it the " gravest threat" that "we face in Asia today" at a summit in neighbouring Tajikistan.

A day after PM Modi strongly raised the issue of terror at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Kyrgyzstan, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar called it the " gravest threat" that "we face in Asia today" at a summit in neighbouring Tajikistan. Speaking at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia or CICA Summit in Tajik capital Dushanbe, EAM said, "Many CICA members are victims of terrorism and should be clear that terrorists and their victims must never be equated". At the summit, New Delhi called for early finalisation of the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism or CCIT which was proposed by India in 2016 and calls for a common definition on terror. On regional connectivity initiatives, India reiterated that connectivity projects should be "inclusive, sustainable, transparent and respect the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity", a message for Bejing, whose CPEC or China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). CPEC is part of China's mega connectivity plan - Belt and Road Initiative which plans to connect China with the rest of Asia and beyond. CICA is a 26 member grouping based in Kazakhstan. On Afghanistan, New Delhi said, "all initiatives and processes must include all sections of Afghan society, including the legitimately elected government", a statement which shows India's continued support to President Ashraf Ghani-led government who seems to be isolated in US-Taliban talks and Russian initiatives on Afghanistan. On the sidelines of the CICA summit, EAM Jaishankar met Vice President of Vietnam Mme Đặng Thị Ngọc Thịnh, Bahrain's Foreign Minister Khalid Al Khalifa, Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and Bangladesh's AK Abdul Momen.

Terrorism is gravest threat in Asia: External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar at CICA Summit

The Chandrabhaga beach in Puri district in east Indian state of Odisha has become the first in Asia to get the Blue Flag certification. The certification is given by Denmark-based Federation of Environment Education (FEE) to beaches which are environment-friendly, clean and equipped with amenities of international standards for tourists. The beach was given the honour on World Environment Day on Wednesday. It is situated 30 km from the city of Puri.

Puri beach becomes first in Asia to get Blue Flag tag

US President Donald Trump said his tariffs on Chinese goods are causing companies to move production out of China to Vietnam and other countries in Asia and added that any agreement with China cannot be a "50-50" deal.

Trump Asks Tariffs Making Companies Leave China, A Deal Can't Be '50-50'

An ongoing Asian Cuisine Festival held across China has not only gathered a multitude of international cuisines for gourmets, but also enhanced communication on culture and civilization among countries and regions in the continent.

Cuisine festival enhances civilization exchanges across Asia

Asian stocks struggled near a 3-1/2-month low on Wednesday on lingering concerns over the economic impact of a US-China trade war, although an overnight bounce on Wall Street helped limit the losses.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged down 0.05%.

The index had fallen to its lowest level since the end of January the previous day as a trade conflict between the United States and China intensified. Beijing on Monday imposed a tariff hike on US&nbsp;goods following Washington's decision last week to hike its levies on Chinese imports.

Australian stocks added 0.07%, South Korea's KOSPI slipped 0.1% and Japan's Nikkei shed 0.4%.

US&nbsp;stocks on Tuesday reclaimed some of the ground lost in the prior day's steep sell-off, with tariff-sensitive technology stocks heartened by a slight softening in US-China trade rhetoric.

US&nbsp;President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he had a "very good" dialogue with China and insisted talks between the world's two largest economies had not collapsed.

Yet, investors braced for a protracted US-China trade war.

"In the short term the equity markets have begun digesting the latest round of the trade war, said Soichiro Monji, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, adding that a bit of calm is returning to some markets as a result.

"Still, the US-China row looks to continue in the coming months. China did not seem to present a totally unified front in the latest round of the trade spat and its reaction bears watching going forward."

On the day, investors will look to a batch of Chinese economic data due later for a further gauge of the health of the world's second-biggest economy.

The Chinese yuan stood little changed at 6.9051 per dollar in offshore trade, having edged away from a five-month trough of 6.9200 set on Tuesday.

The dollar traded a shade higher at 109.675 yen, pulling away from a three-month low of 109.020 plumbed on Monday when trade war worries boosted investor demand for the safe-haven Japanese currency.

The euro was steady at $1.1202. The common currency had dipped nearly 0.2% the previous day after Italy's deputy prime minister said the country is ready to break European Union budget rules on debt levels if necessary to spur employment.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was nearly flat at 97.534 after gaining 0.2% the previous day.

In commodities, US crude futures were down 1.04% at $61.14 per barrel after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a bigger-than-expected build in crude oil inventory.

US crude inventories rose by 8.6 million barrels in the week to May 10 to 477.8 million, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 800,000 barrels.

Brent crude lost 0.69% to $70.75 per barrel.

Brent and US&nbsp;crude futures had surged the previous day after top exporter Saudi Arabia said explosive-laden drones launched by a Yemeni-armed movement aligned to Iran had attacked facilities belonging to state oil company Aramco.

Asian stocks struggled near a 3-1/2-month low on Wednesday on lingering concerns over the economic impact of a US-China trade war, although an overnight bounce on Wall Street helped limit the losses.

Asian stocks struggled near a 3-1/2-month low on Wednesday on lingering concerns over the economic impact of a US-China trade war, although an overnight bounce on Wall Street helped limit the losses. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged down 0.05%. The index had fallen to its lowest level since the end of January the previous day as a trade conflict between the United States and China intensified. Beijing on Monday imposed a tariff hike on US goods following Washington's decision last week to hike its levies on Chinese imports. Australian stocks added 0.07%, South Korea's KOSPI slipped 0.1% and Japan's Nikkei shed 0.4%. US stocks on Tuesday reclaimed some of the ground lost in the prior day's steep sell-off, with tariff-sensitive technology stocks heartened by a slight softening in US-China trade rhetoric. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he had a "very good" dialogue with China and insisted talks between the world's two largest economies had not collapsed. Yet, investors braced for a protracted US-China trade war. "In the short term the equity markets have begun digesting the latest round of the trade war, said Soichiro Monji, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, adding that a bit of calm is returning to some markets as a result. "Still, the US-China row looks to continue in the coming months. China did not seem to present a totally unified front in the latest round of the trade spat and its reaction bears watching going forward." On the day, investors will look to a batch of Chinese economic data due later for a further gauge of the health of the world's second-biggest economy. The Chinese yuan stood little changed at 6.9051 per dollar in offshore trade, having edged away from a five-month trough of 6.9200 set on Tuesday. The dollar traded a shade higher at 109.675 yen, pulling away from a three-month low of 109.020 plumbed on Monday when trade war worries boosted investor demand for the safe-haven Japanese currency. The euro was steady at $1.1202. The common currency had dipped nearly 0.2% the previous day after Italy's deputy prime minister said the country is ready to break European Union budget rules on debt levels if necessary to spur employment. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was nearly flat at 97.534 after gaining 0.2% the previous day. In commodities, US crude futures were down 1.04% at $61.14 per barrel after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a bigger-than-expected build in crude oil inventory. US crude inventories rose by 8.6 million barrels in the week to May 10 to 477.8 million, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 800,000 barrels. Brent crude lost 0.69% to $70.75 per barrel. Brent and US crude futures had surged the previous day after top exporter Saudi Arabia said explosive-laden drones launched by a Yemeni-armed movement aligned to Iran had attacked facilities belonging to state oil company Aramco.

Asia stocks wobble near three-and-a-half-month low as trade worries linger

ISIS Is No Longer Just A Terror Group. Its Making It's Presence Felt In Different Parts Of Asia.

Gravitas: Shadow Of ISIS Looms Large Over South Asia

All you need to know about China's Belt and Road Initiative

Asia's largest tulip garden opens in Srinagar

When the world was analysed in the categories of bipolar interaction, the presence of regional or sub-regional subsystems was subordinate to the logic of a global division into two worlds.&nbsp;

This exclusivity is today challenged by logistic visions reflecting contemporary geopolitics that is likely to recreate the context within which regions and ‘regional’ organisations are perceived.&nbsp;

While this re-imaging presents various possibilities, the overlapping of states, no longer contained within clear bipolar divisions in multilateral ‘regional’ organisations, is a case in point. &nbsp;

Traditionally, three central elements have been identified by analysts as constituting the core elements of regionalism. First, a common historical experience and a sense of shared problems among a geographically distinct group of states/societies, which constituted a region.&nbsp;

Second, close linkages of a distinct kind between those states/societies; in other words recognition of a boundary to the region within which interactions would be more intense than those with the outside world or regionalisation.&nbsp;

Finally, the emergence of an organisation giving shape to the region in a legal and institutional sense and providing rules of the game within the region, the element of conscious policy which is central to regionalism.&nbsp;

Therefore, while dealing with regionalism three elements were considered to be important. The first related to the spatial dimension of regionalism, i.e., how large is the area covered and its definition. &nbsp;

A second related to its scope; in other words the tasks or areas of interaction covered by the region or by the regional organisation. A third feature was the level and extent of the organisation.&nbsp;

These three were considered to be useful since they indicated the variety and unevenness of regionalism and also brought into focus the fact that regional organisations recognise boundaries both in terms of spatial dimension as well as in terms of scope and in recent years both have been challenged.&nbsp;

As such an understanding of complex regional alignments may be the key to comprehending the success or failure of economic diplomacy supported by large scale infrastructural projects and economic corridors that seem to be the hallmark of global politics today.&nbsp;

‘Regional’ organisations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) today include as its ‘dialogue partners’ states as geographically separated as Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia and Nepal.&nbsp;

Similarly, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) that began as a free trade agreement between the ten member states of the ASEAN and the six states with which the ASEAN has existing free trade agreement, will in all probability be expanded with the inclusion of states like Peru and Chile.&nbsp;

It also brings into question the spatial aspect of the ‘regional’ economic partnership that would include Latin America within the new Asia Pacific trade order.

In fact institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which includes 17 non-contiguous Asian and European states, including China and India, may become a new ‘region’ in terms of significance.&nbsp;

This Chinese initiative supports Beijing’s logistic vision of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with the aim to bring South Asian economies closer to China, Central Asia and West Asia.&nbsp;

However, while the replacement of ‘regional’ organisations by logistical spaces reduces the viability of ‘regions’ as geographically designed entities, economic corridors move towards ‘regional’ integration on the assumption that development is a wider collective process.

Nevertheless, both underline that global dynamics related to the management of infrastructure across borders will contribute to the creation of semi-autonomous governing bodies and to a redefinition of social and labour laws and relations across a number of states.&nbsp;

Corridors entail a direct role for the authorities ruling in the spaces they cross, including city/village councils, regions and states and international organisations concerned with trade, development and cross-border activities, while at the same time producing new governing dynamics and management agencies, whose role is growing as a consequence of the relevance assumed by transport connectivity and logistical infrastructure for global exchanges.

In real terms, that would result not just from strategies developed by the Chinese government-led companies, but also because these would confront diverse relations between public governance and private policies about economic corridors in different states requiring the development of new forms of diplomacy and geopolitical projections and a subsequent redefinition of relations between representative institutions and the governance practice of global logistics organisations.&nbsp;

It would also create the possibility of a situation where governance itself moves from traditional sites to the competing sites of economic corridors that coexist on a global scale.&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-seamless-connectivity-and-the-changing-world-order-2735161">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

When the world was analysed in the categories of bipolar interaction, the presence of regional or sub-regional subsystems was subordinate to the logic of a global division into two worlds.

When the world was analysed in the categories of bipolar interaction, the presence of regional or sub-regional subsystems was subordinate to the logic of a global division into two worlds. This exclusivity is today challenged by logistic visions reflecting contemporary geopolitics that is likely to recreate the context within which regions and ‘regional’ organisations are perceived. While this re-imaging presents various possibilities, the overlapping of states, no longer contained within clear bipolar divisions in multilateral ‘regional’ organisations, is a case in point. Traditionally, three central elements have been identified by analysts as constituting the core elements of regionalism. First, a common historical experience and a sense of shared problems among a geographically distinct group of states/societies, which constituted a region. Second, close linkages of a distinct kind between those states/societies; in other words recognition of a boundary to the region within which interactions would be more intense than those with the outside world or regionalisation. Finally, the emergence of an organisation giving shape to the region in a legal and institutional sense and providing rules of the game within the region, the element of conscious policy which is central to regionalism. Therefore, while dealing with regionalism three elements were considered to be important. The first related to the spatial dimension of regionalism, i.e., how large is the area covered and its definition. A second related to its scope; in other words the tasks or areas of interaction covered by the region or by the regional organisation. A third feature was the level and extent of the organisation. These three were considered to be useful since they indicated the variety and unevenness of regionalism and also brought into focus the fact that regional organisations recognise boundaries both in terms of spatial dimension as well as in terms of scope and in recent years both have been challenged. As such an understanding of complex regional alignments may be the key to comprehending the success or failure of economic diplomacy supported by large scale infrastructural projects and economic corridors that seem to be the hallmark of global politics today. ‘Regional’ organisations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) today include as its ‘dialogue partners’ states as geographically separated as Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia and Nepal. Similarly, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) that began as a free trade agreement between the ten member states of the ASEAN and the six states with which the ASEAN has existing free trade agreement, will in all probability be expanded with the inclusion of states like Peru and Chile. It also brings into question the spatial aspect of the ‘regional’ economic partnership that would include Latin America within the new Asia Pacific trade order. In fact institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which includes 17 non-contiguous Asian and European states, including China and India, may become a new ‘region’ in terms of significance. This Chinese initiative supports Beijing’s logistic vision of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with the aim to bring South Asian economies closer to China, Central Asia and West Asia. However, while the replacement of ‘regional’ organisations by logistical spaces reduces the viability of ‘regions’ as geographically designed entities, economic corridors move towards ‘regional’ integration on the assumption that development is a wider collective process. Nevertheless, both underline that global dynamics related to the management of infrastructure across borders will contribute to the creation of semi-autonomous governing bodies and to a redefinition of social and labour laws and relations across a number of states. Corridors entail a direct role for the authorities ruling in the spaces they cross, including city/village councils, regions and states and international organisations concerned with trade, development and cross-border activities, while at the same time producing new governing dynamics and management agencies, whose role is growing as a consequence of the relevance assumed by transport connectivity and logistical infrastructure for global exchanges. In real terms, that would result not just from strategies developed by the Chinese government-led companies, but also because these would confront diverse relations between public governance and private policies about economic corridors in different states requiring the development of new forms of diplomacy and geopolitical projections and a subsequent redefinition of relations between representative institutions and the governance practice of global logistics organisations. It would also create the possibility of a situation where governance itself moves from traditional sites to the competing sites of economic corridors that coexist on a global scale. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Seamless connectivity and the changing world order

India and the US Friday renewed a pact that provides a framework for promoting bilateral cooperation to meet the developmental aspirations of partner countries, particularly in Asia and Africa.

The First Amendment to the Statement of Guiding Principles (SGP) on Triangular Cooperation for Global Development was signed by Devyani Khobragade, Joint Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs of India, and Mark Anthony White, Mission Director for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in India.

The SGP agreement, signed in November 2014, underscores the contribution of the India-US partnership to global stability and prosperity.

It provides a framework for promoting cooperation between the two countries to meet the developmental aspirations of partner countries, particularly in Asia and Africa.&nbsp;

The first amendment to the SGP agreement extends the validity of the SGP agreement up to 2021, a Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) statement said.

It expands the scope of capacity-building activities undertaken jointly by India and the US under this framework and also provides a consultative mechanism for joint biannual monitoring and review of activities undertaken under the SGP.

"Under the agreement, India and the US will continue to offer capacity-building assistance to partner countries in multiple sectors, focusing primarily on agriculture, regional connectivity, trade and investments, nutrition, health, clean and renewable energy, women empowerment, disaster preparedness, water, sanitation, education and institution building," the statement said.&nbsp;

India and the US Friday renewed a pact that provides a framework for promoting bilateral cooperation to meet the developmental aspirations of partner countries, particularly in Asia and Africa.

India and the US Friday renewed a pact that provides a framework for promoting bilateral cooperation to meet the developmental aspirations of partner countries, particularly in Asia and Africa. The First Amendment to the Statement of Guiding Principles (SGP) on Triangular Cooperation for Global Development was signed by Devyani Khobragade, Joint Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs of India, and Mark Anthony White, Mission Director for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in India. The SGP agreement, signed in November 2014, underscores the contribution of the India-US partnership to global stability and prosperity. It provides a framework for promoting cooperation between the two countries to meet the developmental aspirations of partner countries, particularly in Asia and Africa. The first amendment to the SGP agreement extends the validity of the SGP agreement up to 2021, a Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) statement said. It expands the scope of capacity-building activities undertaken jointly by India and the US under this framework and also provides a consultative mechanism for joint biannual monitoring and review of activities undertaken under the SGP. "Under the agreement, India and the US will continue to offer capacity-building assistance to partner countries in multiple sectors, focusing primarily on agriculture, regional connectivity, trade and investments, nutrition, health, clean and renewable energy, women empowerment, disaster preparedness, water, sanitation, education and institution building," the statement said.

India, US renew triangular development cooperation in Asia and Africa

Many have framed the battle lines in the geopolitics of the emerging new world order as the 21st century’s Great Game. It’s a game that aims to shape the creation of a new Eurasia-centred world, built on the likely fusion of Europe and Asia into what former Portuguese Europe minister Bruno Macaes calls a “supercontinent.

The 21st century's Great Game pits world into two camps competing for influence

Asia-Pacific private equity (PE) continued to set new highs for the industry in 2018 but investors should expect tougher times ahead.

This according to a recently released report on the PE market by global management consultancy, Bain and Company.

In 2018, deals values hit record highs together with exit values but fund-raising declined.

Leading the way in Asia-Pacific deal-making are China and India, which accounted for 75 per cent of the total deal value in the region.&nbsp;

Asia-Pacific deal value rose to $165 billion in 2018, exceeding the all-time high of $159 billion of a year earlier and 48 per cent greater than the 2013- 17 average.

China saw a staggering $94 billion of total private equity investment value last year, up 64 per cent over the previous five-year average.&nbsp;

However, it`s important to note that China's private equity market consists of two markets which operate very differently - one for transactions in renminbi which is almost entirely exclusive to domestic funds and one in foreign currencies.

The powerful momentum of previous years lifted the Asia-Pacific private equity industry setting new records in deal value and exit value making an impact in the overall deals done globally.&nbsp;

With $883 billion in total assets under management, Asia-Pacific now represents 26 per cent of the global PE market, up from only 9 per cent just a decade ago.&nbsp;

As General Partners (GPs), compete for deals against corporate players, increasingly they are winning. (A GP is the entity that manages the fund.)&nbsp;

Private equity's share of the Asia-Pacific M&amp;A market rose 6 percentage points to 17 per cent in 2018, from the previous five-year average of 11 per cent. Despite higher deal values, exit values and increasing M&amp;A market share, overall fundraising in Asia-Pacific was sharp lower declining more than 50 per cent to $75 billion, after a record high in 2017, Bain said in its report.&nbsp;

<img alt="Asia-Pacific Private Equity" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74abe78d-c914-42b2-b68a-928d738f9657" src="//cdn.wionews.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Asian%20equity.jpg" />

The report further added that the strength of previous years masked three disconcerting market developments that could affect investment activity and returns in the coming year. First, US-China trade tensions have increased the risk of macroeconomic disruption in China and across the region.&nbsp;

Secondly, deal prices have remained high while interest rates are rising steadily after a period of decline, a trend that will increase the cost of funding and could put a brake on future multiple expansion.&nbsp;

Third, and perhaps most telling, the region's private equity market has become sharply polarized between large funds with strong track records that dominate activity across the region, and smaller, less experienced funds that are having difficulty raising funds and exiting. These economic and market trends could slow the revenue growth and multiple expansion that powered Asia-Pacific PE returns in recent years.&nbsp;

In past recessions, the PE market has outperformed other asset classes. But if recession strikes, vulnerable and less differentiated funds are likely to disproportionately bear the brunt of the downturn. There is a growing acute divide between winners and losers that became more evident in 2018. This could impact a significant number of funds especially smaller funds with smaller deals in the coming year. To win even in a tougher market, many will have to work hard to raise their game.&nbsp;

Thirty-two mega deals (USD 1 billion or more in value) pushed the average deal size to $151 million, on par with last year and up 27 per cent over the previous five-year average of $119 million. These mega deals made up 39 per cent of deal value, compared with an average 33 per cent over the last five years. A critical factor in PE investing is a successful exit strategy. In an exit, the PE firms leave an investment position by selling a stake in a company in which it`s invested.&nbsp;

In this regards, although exit values set new records, the total number of exits declined sharply, and large exits dominated the year`s results. The report added that large, experienced PE-owned companies racked up the vast majority of successful exits and dominated total exit value, while smaller companies had increasing difficulty finding buyers.&nbsp;

For example, Bain said, exits involving companies sold for under USD 100 million dropped 58 per cent last year, while those in excess of USD 500 million increased 26 per cent. Kiki Yang, Bain`s co-head of Asia Pacific private equity and co-author of the report, said in an accompanying release that "we're seeing warning signs that suggest the party may be coming to an end, at least for some investors ..... with the risk of global recession and other macro-economic challenges, we expect the market for exits will only get tougher.

"Looking forward, three important themes are playing an increasing role in the Asia-Pacific private equity market: the rush to invest in China tech and Internet companies; the use of advanced analytics as a tool to improve fund performance; and a shift toward environmental, social and governance (ESG) and impact investing. It warned however that PE investors are increasingly cautious with China`s Internet-based "new economy" that may be a speculative bubble waiting to burst. The report continued, "The huge volume of private equity and venture capital flowing into China's new economy has oversaturated the lower end of the market, prompting investors to seek larger investments."

With trends suggesting that the PE market is beginning to differentiate better-established funds as well as with the gathering macroeconomic uncertainty, revenue growth and multiple expansions in the Asia-Pacific PE market is expected to decline. Less differentiated and smaller funds are the most vulnerable and would be disproportionately affected.&nbsp;

Asia-Pacific private equity (PE) continued to set new highs for the industry in 2018 but investors should expect tougher times ahead. This according to a recently released report on the PE market by global management consultancy, Bain and Company.

Asia-Pacific private equity (PE) continued to set new highs for the industry in 2018 but investors should expect tougher times ahead. This according to a recently released report on the PE market by global management consultancy, Bain and Company. In 2018, deals values hit record highs together with exit values but fund-raising declined. Leading the way in Asia-Pacific deal-making are China and India, which accounted for 75 per cent of the total deal value in the region. Asia-Pacific deal value rose to $165 billion in 2018, exceeding the all-time high of $159 billion of a year earlier and 48 per cent greater than the 2013- 17 average. China saw a staggering $94 billion of total private equity investment value last year, up 64 per cent over the previous five-year average. However, it`s important to note that China's private equity market consists of two markets which operate very differently - one for transactions in renminbi which is almost entirely exclusive to domestic funds and one in foreign currencies. The powerful momentum of previous years lifted the Asia-Pacific private equity industry setting new records in deal value and exit value making an impact in the overall deals done globally. With $883 billion in total assets under management, Asia-Pacific now represents 26 per cent of the global PE market, up from only 9 per cent just a decade ago. As General Partners (GPs), compete for deals against corporate players, increasingly they are winning. (A GP is the entity that manages the fund.) Private equity's share of the Asia-Pacific M&A market rose 6 percentage points to 17 per cent in 2018, from the previous five-year average of 11 per cent. Despite higher deal values, exit values and increasing M&A market share, overall fundraising in Asia-Pacific was sharp lower declining more than 50 per cent to $75 billion, after a record high in 2017, Bain said in its report. The report further added that the strength of previous years masked three disconcerting market developments that could affect investment activity and returns in the coming year. First, US-China trade tensions have increased the risk of macroeconomic disruption in China and across the region. Secondly, deal prices have remained high while interest rates are rising steadily after a period of decline, a trend that will increase the cost of funding and could put a brake on future multiple expansion. Third, and perhaps most telling, the region's private equity market has become sharply polarized between large funds with strong track records that dominate activity across the region, and smaller, less experienced funds that are having difficulty raising funds and exiting. These economic and market trends could slow the revenue growth and multiple expansion that powered Asia-Pacific PE returns in recent years. In past recessions, the PE market has outperformed other asset classes. But if recession strikes, vulnerable and less differentiated funds are likely to disproportionately bear the brunt of the downturn. There is a growing acute divide between winners and losers that became more evident in 2018. This could impact a significant number of funds especially smaller funds with smaller deals in the coming year. To win even in a tougher market, many will have to work hard to raise their game. Thirty-two mega deals (USD 1 billion or more in value) pushed the average deal size to $151 million, on par with last year and up 27 per cent over the previous five-year average of $119 million. These mega deals made up 39 per cent of deal value, compared with an average 33 per cent over the last five years. A critical factor in PE investing is a successful exit strategy. In an exit, the PE firms leave an investment position by selling a stake in a company in which it`s invested. In this regards, although exit values set new records, the total number of exits declined sharply, and large exits dominated the year`s results. The report added that large, experienced PE-owned companies racked up the vast majority of successful exits and dominated total exit value, while smaller companies had increasing difficulty finding buyers. For example, Bain said, exits involving companies sold for under USD 100 million dropped 58 per cent last year, while those in excess of USD 500 million increased 26 per cent. Kiki Yang, Bain`s co-head of Asia Pacific private equity and co-author of the report, said in an accompanying release that "we're seeing warning signs that suggest the party may be coming to an end, at least for some investors ..... with the risk of global recession and other macro-economic challenges, we expect the market for exits will only get tougher. "Looking forward, three important themes are playing an increasing role in the Asia-Pacific private equity market: the rush to invest in China tech and Internet companies; the use of advanced analytics as a tool to improve fund performance; and a shift toward environmental, social and governance (ESG) and impact investing. It warned however that PE investors are increasingly cautious with China`s Internet-based "new economy" that may be a speculative bubble waiting to burst. The report continued, "The huge volume of private equity and venture capital flowing into China's new economy has oversaturated the lower end of the market, prompting investors to seek larger investments." With trends suggesting that the PE market is beginning to differentiate better-established funds as well as with the gathering macroeconomic uncertainty, revenue growth and multiple expansions in the Asia-Pacific PE market is expected to decline. Less differentiated and smaller funds are the most vulnerable and would be disproportionately affected.

Asia-Pacific private equity: India and China lead deals but fund-raising slowing

United Nations experts said in Kenya on Monday that the use of chemicals in industry and agriculture has doubled in recent years, generating annual profits of $5 trillion along with negative impacts on the environment and human health that are concentrated in Asia and Africa.

The first day of the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi was devoted to a presentation of findings from Global Chemicals Outlook II - From Legacies to Innovative Solutions.

One key conclusion of the report was that efforts to reduce the harmful effects of chemicals could become a $10 billion-a-year business in its own right.

"Whether the growth in chemicals becomes a net positive or a net negative for humanity depends on how we manage the chemicals challenge," UN Environment acting Executive Director Joyce Msuya said. "What is clear is that we must do much more, together."

While chemicals enhance human well-being in many ways, notably in health, nutrition and food security, the side effects of their use aggravate climate change and help drive the loss of biodiversity, according to the report.

The use of chemicals has doubled despite policies aimed at reducing their role in industrial processes, the UN's Achi Halpaap said.

And the presence of chemical residues in the environment has increased correspondingly, he said.

The increases have been most dramatic in Africa, which is the source of coltan and other raw materials used in electronic devices; and in Asia, due to Chinese manufacturing, according to Halpaap.

Illicit trafficking in chemicals is also boosting their presence in the environment worldwide, he said.

Fernando Lugris, a Uruguayan diplomat who took part in the negotiations leading that produced the 2013 Minamata Convention on Mercury, called the Global Chemicals Outlook II "historic" for the light it shed upon unnoticed realities.

The report cites data from the European Environmental Agency showing that 345 million tons of chemicals were utilised in 2016 in the 28 European Union member-states, 62 per cent of them toxic.

The World Health Organisation said that 1.6 million people died in 2016 as a result of the use of toxic chemicals, above all in the agricultural sector.

United Nations experts said in Kenya on Monday that the use of chemicals in industry and agriculture has doubled in recent years, generating annual profits of $5 trillion along with negative impacts on the environment and human health that are concentrated in Asia and Africa.

United Nations experts said in Kenya on Monday that the use of chemicals in industry and agriculture has doubled in recent years, generating annual profits of $5 trillion along with negative impacts on the environment and human health that are concentrated in Asia and Africa. The first day of the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi was devoted to a presentation of findings from Global Chemicals Outlook II - From Legacies to Innovative Solutions. One key conclusion of the report was that efforts to reduce the harmful effects of chemicals could become a $10 billion-a-year business in its own right. "Whether the growth in chemicals becomes a net positive or a net negative for humanity depends on how we manage the chemicals challenge," UN Environment acting Executive Director Joyce Msuya said. "What is clear is that we must do much more, together." While chemicals enhance human well-being in many ways, notably in health, nutrition and food security, the side effects of their use aggravate climate change and help drive the loss of biodiversity, according to the report. The use of chemicals has doubled despite policies aimed at reducing their role in industrial processes, the UN's Achi Halpaap said. And the presence of chemical residues in the environment has increased correspondingly, he said. The increases have been most dramatic in Africa, which is the source of coltan and other raw materials used in electronic devices; and in Asia, due to Chinese manufacturing, according to Halpaap. Illicit trafficking in chemicals is also boosting their presence in the environment worldwide, he said. Fernando Lugris, a Uruguayan diplomat who took part in the negotiations leading that produced the 2013 Minamata Convention on Mercury, called the Global Chemicals Outlook II "historic" for the light it shed upon unnoticed realities. The report cites data from the European Environmental Agency showing that 345 million tons of chemicals were utilised in 2016 in the 28 European Union member-states, 62 per cent of them toxic. The World Health Organisation said that 1.6 million people died in 2016 as a result of the use of toxic chemicals, above all in the agricultural sector.

Asia, Africa bear brunt of damage from chemicals: UN experts

Anpanman is a Japanese cartoon character whose head is made of red bean bread. The superhero, who shares parts of his bean bread face (in Japanese ‘pan’ is bread and ‘anko’ is red bean paste) with people in need is ‘Anpanman’, the world’s weakest superhero.&nbsp;

Lacking all the superpowers associated with American superhero characters like Superman or Spiderman, he hovers nearby ready to help.&nbsp;

The significance of the arrival of Anpanman, as the alternative Asian superhero, which resulted from the publicity received from the song ‘Anpanman’ sung by the iconic Korean Pop (K Pop) group BTS (Bangtan Sonyeondan) goes beyond the globalisation of a Japanese comic book character.&nbsp;

It heralds what Parag Khanna in his recent book, The Future is Asian calls ‘the Asianisation of the world’. In music for instance, BTS, an Asian pop group, represents one of the most significant departures in global pop culture of the 21st century. As a venture, BTS began with exploring neighbouring Asian markets in Taiwan, Japan and China and finally captured American audiences with the album Love Yourself in 2018.&nbsp;

‘Why Asia Matters’, has been the topic of discussion for some years now, not just because of the projection of the 21st century as the Asian Century, but also because of China’s emerging role in the global arena, the resilience of Asian economies in the face of a global downturn, its growing and young population, its advent as both the largest producer and consumer of goods and a plethora of other factors that would follow these developments.&nbsp;

It is today also space where new strategic geographies, that challenge traditional geopolitical divisions, are being imagined and where alternative economic institutions that predict a transition of the centre of global economics eastward are being framed.&nbsp;

This transition is emerging in the background of a deep sense of dissatisfaction with globalisation, fear of immigrants and emergence of populist politics, exemplified by a growing divide between cosmopolitan and non-cosmopolitan populations, deepening cultural differences between rural and urban populations and widening opinion among those favouring an open society that is welcoming to immigrants and other supporting closed borders.&nbsp;

The ‘new world order’ is in flux and Asia seems to be at its centre.

In recent years fundamental assumptions underlying the global world order have been politically, economically, socially and culturally challenged.&nbsp;

Typically stable territorial formations (nation-states, ideological blocks, global markets) have devolved into chaos while typically unstable extraterritorial flows (communication networks, trade arrangements, cultural codes or capital reserves) are evolving into consistent cohesions prompting the argument that globally there are shifts that are moving towards de-territorialisation and re-territorialisation at the same time.&nbsp;

The ‘new normal’, in economic terms, on the other hand, is a position that is likely to disrupt openness to trade on the part of the world that was its most vocal proponent and its support from states like China, which is stepping into the role of ‘globalisation’s biggest supporter’. &nbsp;

This was reflected in President Trump’s pullout from the 12-nation mega trade deal (the Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP) and increasing numbers of states opting to join the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).&nbsp;

Begun as a free trade agreement between the ten member states of the ASEAN and the six states with which the ASEAN has existing free trade agreement, RCEP will in all probability be expanded with the inclusion of states like Peru and Chile bringing into question the spatial aspect of the ‘regional’ economic partnership.&nbsp;

As trade flows compete with military power for influence, geopolitics becomes an extension of geo-economics and infrastructural developments and institutions assume increasing significance logistical connects will move towards creating new frontiers of governance and new peripheries on the outskirts of logistical connects.&nbsp;

It is assumed that this will eventually create a space where the distinction between the economic and the institutional, the public and the private, the national and the supranational, and the local and the global will blur or even vanish. It would also probably herald the arrival of an Asianised future reflected hopefully in the lines ‘Waiting for you, Anpanman!’ 
&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the<a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-new-world-order-is-in-flux-and-asia-seems-to-be-at-its-centre-2727082"> original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Anpanman is a Japanese cartoon character whose head is made of red bean bread. The superhero, who shares parts of his bean bread face (in Japanese ‘pan’ is bread and ‘anko’ is red bean paste) with people in need is ‘Anpanman’, the world’s weakest superhero.

Anpanman is a Japanese cartoon character whose head is made of red bean bread. The superhero, who shares parts of his bean bread face (in Japanese ‘pan’ is bread and ‘anko’ is red bean paste) with people in need is ‘Anpanman’, the world’s weakest superhero. Lacking all the superpowers associated with American superhero characters like Superman or Spiderman, he hovers nearby ready to help. The significance of the arrival of Anpanman, as the alternative Asian superhero, which resulted from the publicity received from the song ‘Anpanman’ sung by the iconic Korean Pop (K Pop) group BTS (Bangtan Sonyeondan) goes beyond the globalisation of a Japanese comic book character. It heralds what Parag Khanna in his recent book, The Future is Asian calls ‘the Asianisation of the world’. In music for instance, BTS, an Asian pop group, represents one of the most significant departures in global pop culture of the 21st century. As a venture, BTS began with exploring neighbouring Asian markets in Taiwan, Japan and China and finally captured American audiences with the album Love Yourself in 2018. ‘Why Asia Matters’, has been the topic of discussion for some years now, not just because of the projection of the 21st century as the Asian Century, but also because of China’s emerging role in the global arena, the resilience of Asian economies in the face of a global downturn, its growing and young population, its advent as both the largest producer and consumer of goods and a plethora of other factors that would follow these developments. It is today also space where new strategic geographies, that challenge traditional geopolitical divisions, are being imagined and where alternative economic institutions that predict a transition of the centre of global economics eastward are being framed. This transition is emerging in the background of a deep sense of dissatisfaction with globalisation, fear of immigrants and emergence of populist politics, exemplified by a growing divide between cosmopolitan and non-cosmopolitan populations, deepening cultural differences between rural and urban populations and widening opinion among those favouring an open society that is welcoming to immigrants and other supporting closed borders. The ‘new world order’ is in flux and Asia seems to be at its centre. In recent years fundamental assumptions underlying the global world order have been politically, economically, socially and culturally challenged. Typically stable territorial formations (nation-states, ideological blocks, global markets) have devolved into chaos while typically unstable extraterritorial flows (communication networks, trade arrangements, cultural codes or capital reserves) are evolving into consistent cohesions prompting the argument that globally there are shifts that are moving towards de-territorialisation and re-territorialisation at the same time. The ‘new normal’, in economic terms, on the other hand, is a position that is likely to disrupt openness to trade on the part of the world that was its most vocal proponent and its support from states like China, which is stepping into the role of ‘globalisation’s biggest supporter’. This was reflected in President Trump’s pullout from the 12-nation mega trade deal (the Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP) and increasing numbers of states opting to join the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Begun as a free trade agreement between the ten member states of the ASEAN and the six states with which the ASEAN has existing free trade agreement, RCEP will in all probability be expanded with the inclusion of states like Peru and Chile bringing into question the spatial aspect of the ‘regional’ economic partnership. As trade flows compete with military power for influence, geopolitics becomes an extension of geo-economics and infrastructural developments and institutions assume increasing significance logistical connects will move towards creating new frontiers of governance and new peripheries on the outskirts of logistical connects. It is assumed that this will eventually create a space where the distinction between the economic and the institutional, the public and the private, the national and the supranational, and the local and the global will blur or even vanish. It would also probably herald the arrival of an Asianised future reflected hopefully in the lines ‘Waiting for you, Anpanman!’ (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

‘New world order’ is in flux and Asia seems to be at its centre

At least a third of the ice in the Himalayas and the Hindu Kush will thaw this century as temperatures rise, disrupting river flows vital for growing crops from China to India, scientists said on Monday.

Vast glaciers make the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region — which is home to the world's highest peaks topped by Mount Everest and K2 — a "third pole" behind Antarctica and the Arctic region, they said.

"This is <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/to-defeat-obesity-hunger-climate-change-govts-must-curb-influence-of-big-corporations-lancet-193275">the climate crisis you haven't heard of</a>," said Philippus Wester, who led the report.

"Global warming is on track to transform the frigid, glacier-covered mountain peaks of the HKH cutting across eight countries to bare rocks in a little less than a century," said Wester of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

The report, by 210 authors, said that more than a third of the ice in the region will melt by 2100 even if governments take tough action to limit global warming under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

And two-thirds of the ice could vanish if governments fail to rein in greenhouse gas emissions this century. "To me, this is the biggest worrying thing,” Wester told Reuters on the sidelines of an event to launch the report in Kathmandu.

Glaciers have thinned and retreated across most parts of the region since the 1970s. Ice in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region would push up sea levels by 1.5 metres if it all melted, Eklabya Sharma, deputy director general of ICIMOD, told Reuters.

Mountain climate hotspots

The region stretches 3,500 km (2,175 miles) across Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan.

The study said the thaw will disrupt rivers including the Yangtze, Mekong, Indus and Ganges, where farmers rely on glacier meltwater in the dry season. About 250 million people live in the mountains and 1.65 billion people in river valleys below.

Changes in river flows could also harm hydropower production and cause more erosion and landslides in the mountains.

But more research is needed to gauge exactly how glaciers affect distant crops, said Wouter Buytaert, of Imperial College in London, who was not involved in the study.

"While glacier meltwater propagates downstream, it mixes with water from other sources such as direct rainfall, wetlands, and groundwater, up to a point where the impact of glacier melting may become negligible," he said.

The authors said that people living in small island states were often viewed as the most vulnerable to climate change because of rising sea levels.

"It's not just occupants of the world's islands that are suffering," said Dasho Rinzin Dorji, an ICIMOD board member from Bhutan. He said in a statement that mountain regions were also extremely vulnerable as "climate hotspots".

At least a third of the ice in the Himalayas and the Hindu Kush will thaw this century as temperatures rise, disrupting river flows vital for growing crops from China to India, scientists said on Monday.

At least a third of the ice in the Himalayas and the Hindu Kush will thaw this century as temperatures rise, disrupting river flows vital for growing crops from China to India, scientists said on Monday. Vast glaciers make the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region — which is home to the world's highest peaks topped by Mount Everest and K2 — a "third pole" behind Antarctica and the Arctic region, they said. "This is the climate crisis you haven't heard of," said Philippus Wester, who led the report. "Global warming is on track to transform the frigid, glacier-covered mountain peaks of the HKH cutting across eight countries to bare rocks in a little less than a century," said Wester of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). The report, by 210 authors, said that more than a third of the ice in the region will melt by 2100 even if governments take tough action to limit global warming under the 2015 Paris climate agreement. And two-thirds of the ice could vanish if governments fail to rein in greenhouse gas emissions this century. "To me, this is the biggest worrying thing,” Wester told Reuters on the sidelines of an event to launch the report in Kathmandu. Glaciers have thinned and retreated across most parts of the region since the 1970s. Ice in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region would push up sea levels by 1.5 metres if it all melted, Eklabya Sharma, deputy director general of ICIMOD, told Reuters. Mountain climate hotspots The region stretches 3,500 km (2,175 miles) across Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan. The study said the thaw will disrupt rivers including the Yangtze, Mekong, Indus and Ganges, where farmers rely on glacier meltwater in the dry season. About 250 million people live in the mountains and 1.65 billion people in river valleys below. Changes in river flows could also harm hydropower production and cause more erosion and landslides in the mountains. But more research is needed to gauge exactly how glaciers affect distant crops, said Wouter Buytaert, of Imperial College in London, who was not involved in the study. "While glacier meltwater propagates downstream, it mixes with water from other sources such as direct rainfall, wetlands, and groundwater, up to a point where the impact of glacier melting may become negligible," he said. The authors said that people living in small island states were often viewed as the most vulnerable to climate change because of rising sea levels. "It's not just occupants of the world's islands that are suffering," said Dasho Rinzin Dorji, an ICIMOD board member from Bhutan. He said in a statement that mountain regions were also extremely vulnerable as "climate hotspots".

At least one-third of Himalayan ice will melt this century: Report

The United States and China are playing Eurasia’s 21st-century 'Great Game' from different but equally skewed maps. While the US map appears to be outdated, the Chinese map portrays a reality that is imagined.

If the skewed realities of both China and the United States have one thing in common, it is in strategist Parag Khanna’s mind the fact that neither realises that the Great Game’s prize, a new world order, has already been determined.

“We are living – for the first time ever -- in a truly multipolar and multicivilisational order in which North America, Europe and Asia each represents a major share of power,” Khanna says in his just-published book, The Future is Asian.

While the United States sees the great game as an open-ended battle for influence in Europe and Asia and looks at Russia as a European rather than a Eurasian power, China overestimates what its future position, aided by its $1 trillion infrastructure and energy-driven Belt and Road initiative, is likely to be.

The skewed perceptions of both the United States and China create spaces for multiple other powers like Russia and various Middle Eastern states to carve out positions of their own.

China, nonetheless, alongside Russia has one advantage. In contrast, to the United States, it adopts the notion put forward by former Portuguese Europe minister Bruno Macias that the number of the world’s continents is shrinking from seven to six. Increasingly, Europe and Asia no longer see their common landmass as two separate continents and are gravitating towards what Macias calls a “supercontinent.”&nbsp;

Khanna implicitly acknowledges Macias’ notion by concluding that contrary to perceived Chinese expectations “ultimately, China’s position will be not of an Asian or global hegemon but rather of the eastern anchor of the Asian – and Eurasian – mega-system.”

China’s perceived other advantage, its economic and financial muscle, in the juggling for position on the new supercontinent is also proving to be its Achilles Heel.

The belief that the driver of the Belt and Road is geopolitics rather than economics is bolstered by predictions that none of China’s Indian Ocean port projects has much hope of financial success.

A Financial Times study last year concluded that 78 countries targeted by China for project development are among the world’s most risky economies. On a scale of one to seven, the highest level of country risk, Belt and Road countries ranked 5.2, a significantly higher risk than the 3.5 average for emerging markets. They had a median rating by Moody’s, the credit rating agency, that was the equivalent of non-investment junk investment grade.

The risk was reflected on the balance sheets of major Chinese state-owned companies that build, operate and invest in many Belt and Road projects. The study reported that China’s top internationally active construction and engineering contractors were almost four times more highly leveraged than their non-Chinese competitors.

In a bid to avert a financial crisis, the government has ordered state-owned companies to reduce their debt burden, in part by attributing greater importance to the viability of overseas projects.

The risk to China is not purely economic. It is also geopolitical and reputational. Increasingly, China is forced to focus short term less on the Great Game itself and more on countering the negative effect of a growing perception that China’s projection of the Belt and Road as a mutually beneficial proposition is more fantasy than fact.

A growing number of countries, like Pakistan, Malaysia, Myanmar and Nepal, question the benefits of Belt and Road projects and are resisting China’s often onerous commercial and funding terms.

Ironically, China’s immediate rivals in efforts to maintain its status and ensure that it does not lose hard-won ground are not the United States, India or Japan but its newly assertive, geopolitically ambitious friends in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as well as Iran.

That is nowhere truer than in Pakistan, a Belt and Road crown jewel, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE have exploited to their advantage Chinese irritation with Pakistani demands to shift the emphasis of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from infrastructure and energy to agriculture, job creation and the enabling of third-party investment, primarily from countries in the Gulf.

Chinese chagrin has been evident in China’s hesitancy to respond to Pakistani requests for help in averting a financial crisis.

Filling the gap, massive Saudi and UAE aid and investment to the tune of $30 billion in balance of payment support, deferred oil import payments and investment in the troubled Pakistani province of Balochistan that borders Iran has helped the government of Imran Khan avoid asking the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cap in hand to bail it out.

China fears that Pakistan’s mounting dependence on Saudi Arabia and the UAE coupled with a US campaign intended to curb Iran’s regional projection potentially complicates the security of its massive $45 billion-plus investment that to a large extent targets Balochistan.

The United States and Saudi Arabia see Balochistan as a possible launching pad for possible efforts to destabilise the Islamic republic by stirring unrest among its Baloch population and other ethnic minorities.

Increased Saudi and UAE influence in Balochistan could, moreover, suck China into the escalating maelstrom of the two countries’ rivalry with Iran.

Ironically, Saudi and UAE investment has at the same time shielded China from potentially embarrassing disclosure of the financial terms of CPEC-related projects that the IMF was demanding as part of any bailout. Media reports said that Pakistan had informally told the IMF that it would be paying China $40 billion over 20 years for $26.5 billion in Chinese funding of CPEC-related projects.

The impact of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, like much of the rest of the Middle East, goes far beyond Balochistan. It also puts its mark elsewhere on the Eurasian supercontinent. In the words of analyst Galip Dalay, the Middle East or West Asia will, for better or for worse, shape each other.

&nbsp;“The contemporary Middle East is no longer the geopolitically US-centric space that the Europeans once knew. Europe can respond in several ways: proceed with its largely ad-hoc, incoherent and crisis-driven policies of recent years; continue to be incorporated into someone else's game plan, as with the French-German involvement in the Russian-led Astana (peace) process for Syria; or craft a more coherent policy towards the region, with a strong emphasis on democratisation, reform, good governance, inclusion and reconciliation… If Europe doesn’t engage and invest in the transformation of the Middle East, regional developments will dramatically transform it, whether through radicalism, refugees, terrorism, xenophobia or populism. Interactions between Europe and the Middle East will be transformative, for better or for worse.,” Dalay said.

The Middle East is similarly crucial to the success of China’s Belt and Road with Iran and Turkey representing key nodes that further the rise of Eurasia through Chinese-funded rails that link the Atlantic coast of Europe to the People’s Republic.

The Middle East’s impact is one facet of a bigger game in which world and regional powers are competing for the position in Khanna’s multipolar and multicivilisational order.

Robert Malley, a former Obama National Security Council official and head of the International Crisis Group argues that autocratic and authoritarian leaders are testing the limits of the 'Great Game' as the power of Western nations erodes and embattled concepts of multilateralism no longer serve to constrain them.

“As the era of largely uncontested US primacy fades, the international order has been thrown into turmoil. More leaders are tempted more often to test limits, jostle for power, and seek to bolster their influence—or diminish that of their rivals—by meddling in foreign conflicts… Having annexed parts of Georgia and Crimea and stoked separatist violence in Ukraine’s Donbass region, Russia is now throwing its weight around in the Sea of Azov, poisoning dissidents in the United Kingdom, and subverting Western democracies with cyberwarfare. China obstructs freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and arbitrarily detains Canadian citizens… Saudi Arabia has pushed the envelope with the war in Yemen, the kidnapping of a Lebanese prime minister, and the gruesome murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in its consulate in Istanbul. Iran plots attacks against dissidents on European soil. Israel feels emboldened to undermine ever more systematically the foundations of a possible two-state solution” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Malley said.

By implication, Malley was suggesting that efforts to push the envelope were enabled by the US’ failure to recognise that Europe and Asia were becoming one supercontinent.

That failure was mirrored in the US National Security Strategy published in 2017 by the White House and a study by Rand Corporation in 2018 designed to conceptualise current geopolitics as an era of intensifying international competition.

Rather than recognising an increasingly evident divergence of interests between the United States and Europe, the study suggested that the US would continue to have the opportunity if it chooses, to lead a predominant coalition of value-sharing democracies and other largely status quo states to help preserve stability.”

The study appeared to downplay any divergence by reducing differences to “identity-fuelled nationalism” that aims to recapture (countries’) “rightful place” in world politics,” a reference to Russia, China, Iran and North Korea as well as European nations grappling with the rise of nationalist, populist and far-right forces and a Middle East that is shaping Europe through highly emotive issues such as migration, political violence and religious identity.

The US focus on Russia as a European rather than a regional power with global ambitions also means that it underestimates Moscow’s play in the Middle East despite its military intervention in Syria.

Russia national security scholar Stephen Blank argues that President Vladimir Putin’s strategy in the region is rooted in the thinking of Yevgeny Primakov, a Middle East expert and linguist and former spymaster, foreign minister and deputy prime minister, who like Khanna envisioned the emergence of a multi-polar, multi-civilisational world with Eurasia at its centre.

Primakov saw the Middle East as a key arena for countering the United States that would enable Russia, weakened by the demise of the Soviet Union and a subsequent economic crisis, to regain its status as a global and regional power and ensure that it would be one pole in a multi-polar world.

By identifying the region as a preferred battleground, Russia benefitted in the words of historian Niall Ferguson from the fact that its significant oil reserves made it “the only power that has no vested interest in stability in the Middle East.”

Blank argued that “in order to reassert Russia’s greatness, Primakov and Putin aimed ultimately at strategic denial, denying Washington sole possession of a dominant role in the Middle East from where US influence could expand to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS),” a regional grouping of post-Soviet nations.

They believed that if Russia succeeded it would force the United States to concede multi-polarity and grant Russia the recognition it deserves. That, in turn, would allow Putin to demonstrate to the Russian elite his ability to restore Russia to great power status.

Syria offered Russia the opportunity to display its military prowess without the United States challenging the move. At the same time, Russia leveraged its political and economic clout to forge an alliance with Turkey and partner with Iran. The approach constituted an effort to defang Turkish and Iranian influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Similarly, Russia after brutally repressing religiously inspired Chechen rebels in the 1990s, was proving to be far defter than either China or the United States at promoting politically pacifist or apolitical Islam in a complex game of playing all sides against the middle.

Russian engagement runs the gamut from engaging with militants to cooperating with Muslim autocrats to encouraging condemnation of the kind of Islam adopted by partners such as Saudi Arabia.

Said Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and a former Russian military officer: “Russia is not the Soviet Union. It does not see the Middle East as a region that it can dominate. Displacing the United States from the leading position in the Middle East is way above Russia’s capacity, and keeping the region in its sphere of influence is way above Russia’s resources. Russia has certainly benefited from waning US interest in the Middle East as, absent an active America, Russia can act with more confidence and ease.”

Describing Russia as “a lonely power,” Trenin went on to say that the difference between Russia and the Soviet Union was that the “Soviet Union was heavily engaged around the Middle East in spending money on an ideological and geopolitical project, the Russian Federation is active in the region trying to make money. The Soviet Union was about an idea. Russia’s idea is about Russia itself.”

In the Great Game’s jostling for position, Trump’s America First approach mirrors Trenin’s portrayal of Russian policy. That leaves China tied up in the contradictions of a policy that is packaged in assertions of lofty ideals but like the United States and Russia is in effect first and foremost about the pursuit of Chinese interests.

 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The United States and China are playing Eurasia’s 21st-century 'Great Game' from different but equally skewed maps. While the US map appears to be outdated, the Chinese map portrays a reality that is imagined.

The United States and China are playing Eurasia’s 21st-century 'Great Game' from different but equally skewed maps. While the US map appears to be outdated, the Chinese map portrays a reality that is imagined. If the skewed realities of both China and the United States have one thing in common, it is in strategist Parag Khanna’s mind the fact that neither realises that the Great Game’s prize, a new world order, has already been determined. “We are living – for the first time ever -- in a truly multipolar and multicivilisational order in which North America, Europe and Asia each represents a major share of power,” Khanna says in his just-published book, The Future is Asian. While the United States sees the great game as an open-ended battle for influence in Europe and Asia and looks at Russia as a European rather than a Eurasian power, China overestimates what its future position, aided by its $1 trillion infrastructure and energy-driven Belt and Road initiative, is likely to be. The skewed perceptions of both the United States and China create spaces for multiple other powers like Russia and various Middle Eastern states to carve out positions of their own. China, nonetheless, alongside Russia has one advantage. In contrast, to the United States, it adopts the notion put forward by former Portuguese Europe minister Bruno Macias that the number of the world’s continents is shrinking from seven to six. Increasingly, Europe and Asia no longer see their common landmass as two separate continents and are gravitating towards what Macias calls a “supercontinent.” Khanna implicitly acknowledges Macias’ notion by concluding that contrary to perceived Chinese expectations “ultimately, China’s position will be not of an Asian or global hegemon but rather of the eastern anchor of the Asian – and Eurasian – mega-system.” China’s perceived other advantage, its economic and financial muscle, in the juggling for position on the new supercontinent is also proving to be its Achilles Heel. The belief that the driver of the Belt and Road is geopolitics rather than economics is bolstered by predictions that none of China’s Indian Ocean port projects has much hope of financial success. A Financial Times study last year concluded that 78 countries targeted by China for project development are among the world’s most risky economies. On a scale of one to seven, the highest level of country risk, Belt and Road countries ranked 5.2, a significantly higher risk than the 3.5 average for emerging markets. They had a median rating by Moody’s, the credit rating agency, that was the equivalent of non-investment junk investment grade. The risk was reflected on the balance sheets of major Chinese state-owned companies that build, operate and invest in many Belt and Road projects. The study reported that China’s top internationally active construction and engineering contractors were almost four times more highly leveraged than their non-Chinese competitors. In a bid to avert a financial crisis, the government has ordered state-owned companies to reduce their debt burden, in part by attributing greater importance to the viability of overseas projects. The risk to China is not purely economic. It is also geopolitical and reputational. Increasingly, China is forced to focus short term less on the Great Game itself and more on countering the negative effect of a growing perception that China’s projection of the Belt and Road as a mutually beneficial proposition is more fantasy than fact. A growing number of countries, like Pakistan, Malaysia, Myanmar and Nepal, question the benefits of Belt and Road projects and are resisting China’s often onerous commercial and funding terms. Ironically, China’s immediate rivals in efforts to maintain its status and ensure that it does not lose hard-won ground are not the United States, India or Japan but its newly assertive, geopolitically ambitious friends in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as well as Iran. That is nowhere truer than in Pakistan, a Belt and Road crown jewel, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE have exploited to their advantage Chinese irritation with Pakistani demands to shift the emphasis of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from infrastructure and energy to agriculture, job creation and the enabling of third-party investment, primarily from countries in the Gulf. Chinese chagrin has been evident in China’s hesitancy to respond to Pakistani requests for help in averting a financial crisis. Filling the gap, massive Saudi and UAE aid and investment to the tune of $30 billion in balance of payment support, deferred oil import payments and investment in the troubled Pakistani province of Balochistan that borders Iran has helped the government of Imran Khan avoid asking the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cap in hand to bail it out. China fears that Pakistan’s mounting dependence on Saudi Arabia and the UAE coupled with a US campaign intended to curb Iran’s regional projection potentially complicates the security of its massive $45 billion-plus investment that to a large extent targets Balochistan. The United States and Saudi Arabia see Balochistan as a possible launching pad for possible efforts to destabilise the Islamic republic by stirring unrest among its Baloch population and other ethnic minorities. Increased Saudi and UAE influence in Balochistan could, moreover, suck China into the escalating maelstrom of the two countries’ rivalry with Iran. Ironically, Saudi and UAE investment has at the same time shielded China from potentially embarrassing disclosure of the financial terms of CPEC-related projects that the IMF was demanding as part of any bailout. Media reports said that Pakistan had informally told the IMF that it would be paying China $40 billion over 20 years for $26.5 billion in Chinese funding of CPEC-related projects. The impact of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, like much of the rest of the Middle East, goes far beyond Balochistan. It also puts its mark elsewhere on the Eurasian supercontinent. In the words of analyst Galip Dalay, the Middle East or West Asia will, for better or for worse, shape each other. “The contemporary Middle East is no longer the geopolitically US-centric space that the Europeans once knew. Europe can respond in several ways: proceed with its largely ad-hoc, incoherent and crisis-driven policies of recent years; continue to be incorporated into someone else's game plan, as with the French-German involvement in the Russian-led Astana (peace) process for Syria; or craft a more coherent policy towards the region, with a strong emphasis on democratisation, reform, good governance, inclusion and reconciliation… If Europe doesn’t engage and invest in the transformation of the Middle East, regional developments will dramatically transform it, whether through radicalism, refugees, terrorism, xenophobia or populism. Interactions between Europe and the Middle East will be transformative, for better or for worse.,” Dalay said. The Middle East is similarly crucial to the success of China’s Belt and Road with Iran and Turkey representing key nodes that further the rise of Eurasia through Chinese-funded rails that link the Atlantic coast of Europe to the People’s Republic. The Middle East’s impact is one facet of a bigger game in which world and regional powers are competing for the position in Khanna’s multipolar and multicivilisational order. Robert Malley, a former Obama National Security Council official and head of the International Crisis Group argues that autocratic and authoritarian leaders are testing the limits of the 'Great Game' as the power of Western nations erodes and embattled concepts of multilateralism no longer serve to constrain them. “As the era of largely uncontested US primacy fades, the international order has been thrown into turmoil. More leaders are tempted more often to test limits, jostle for power, and seek to bolster their influence—or diminish that of their rivals—by meddling in foreign conflicts… Having annexed parts of Georgia and Crimea and stoked separatist violence in Ukraine’s Donbass region, Russia is now throwing its weight around in the Sea of Azov, poisoning dissidents in the United Kingdom, and subverting Western democracies with cyberwarfare. China obstructs freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and arbitrarily detains Canadian citizens… Saudi Arabia has pushed the envelope with the war in Yemen, the kidnapping of a Lebanese prime minister, and the gruesome murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in its consulate in Istanbul. Iran plots attacks against dissidents on European soil. Israel feels emboldened to undermine ever more systematically the foundations of a possible two-state solution” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Malley said. By implication, Malley was suggesting that efforts to push the envelope were enabled by the US’ failure to recognise that Europe and Asia were becoming one supercontinent. That failure was mirrored in the US National Security Strategy published in 2017 by the White House and a study by Rand Corporation in 2018 designed to conceptualise current geopolitics as an era of intensifying international competition. Rather than recognising an increasingly evident divergence of interests between the United States and Europe, the study suggested that the US would continue to have the opportunity if it chooses, to lead a predominant coalition of value-sharing democracies and other largely status quo states to help preserve stability.” The study appeared to downplay any divergence by reducing differences to “identity-fuelled nationalism” that aims to recapture (countries’) “rightful place” in world politics,” a reference to Russia, China, Iran and North Korea as well as European nations grappling with the rise of nationalist, populist and far-right forces and a Middle East that is shaping Europe through highly emotive issues such as migration, political violence and religious identity. The US focus on Russia as a European rather than a regional power with global ambitions also means that it underestimates Moscow’s play in the Middle East despite its military intervention in Syria. Russia national security scholar Stephen Blank argues that President Vladimir Putin’s strategy in the region is rooted in the thinking of Yevgeny Primakov, a Middle East expert and linguist and former spymaster, foreign minister and deputy prime minister, who like Khanna envisioned the emergence of a multi-polar, multi-civilisational world with Eurasia at its centre. Primakov saw the Middle East as a key arena for countering the United States that would enable Russia, weakened by the demise of the Soviet Union and a subsequent economic crisis, to regain its status as a global and regional power and ensure that it would be one pole in a multi-polar world. By identifying the region as a preferred battleground, Russia benefitted in the words of historian Niall Ferguson from the fact that its significant oil reserves made it “the only power that has no vested interest in stability in the Middle East.” Blank argued that “in order to reassert Russia’s greatness, Primakov and Putin aimed ultimately at strategic denial, denying Washington sole possession of a dominant role in the Middle East from where US influence could expand to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS),” a regional grouping of post-Soviet nations. They believed that if Russia succeeded it would force the United States to concede multi-polarity and grant Russia the recognition it deserves. That, in turn, would allow Putin to demonstrate to the Russian elite his ability to restore Russia to great power status. Syria offered Russia the opportunity to display its military prowess without the United States challenging the move. At the same time, Russia leveraged its political and economic clout to forge an alliance with Turkey and partner with Iran. The approach constituted an effort to defang Turkish and Iranian influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Similarly, Russia after brutally repressing religiously inspired Chechen rebels in the 1990s, was proving to be far defter than either China or the United States at promoting politically pacifist or apolitical Islam in a complex game of playing all sides against the middle. Russian engagement runs the gamut from engaging with militants to cooperating with Muslim autocrats to encouraging condemnation of the kind of Islam adopted by partners such as Saudi Arabia. Said Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and a former Russian military officer: “Russia is not the Soviet Union. It does not see the Middle East as a region that it can dominate. Displacing the United States from the leading position in the Middle East is way above Russia’s capacity, and keeping the region in its sphere of influence is way above Russia’s resources. Russia has certainly benefited from waning US interest in the Middle East as, absent an active America, Russia can act with more confidence and ease.” Describing Russia as “a lonely power,” Trenin went on to say that the difference between Russia and the Soviet Union was that the “Soviet Union was heavily engaged around the Middle East in spending money on an ideological and geopolitical project, the Russian Federation is active in the region trying to make money. The Soviet Union was about an idea. Russia’s idea is about Russia itself.” In the Great Game’s jostling for position, Trump’s America First approach mirrors Trenin’s portrayal of Russian policy. That leaves China tied up in the contradictions of a policy that is packaged in assertions of lofty ideals but like the United States and Russia is in effect first and foremost about the pursuit of Chinese interests. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

US and China's skewed maps complicate 21st century's 'Great Game' in Eurasia

Bangladesh has scrapped a <a href="http://www.wionews.com/business-&amp;-economy/bangladesh-sees-stalled-floating-lng-terminal-starting-operations-in-days-156601">liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply</a> deal with Swiss energy trader AOT Energy, which had been close to being finalised, an official said on Friday.

Bangladesh and AOT agreed on a deal in February 2018 for the supply of 1.25 million tonnes per year (mtpa) for 15 years but it was not signed. Since then, the country has installed its first import terminal and received its first cargoes, while prices seesawed.

"The deal with AOT will not be signed," said Mohammad Quamruzzaman, managing director of the Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Co., which is in charge of LNG supplies to the country. "The decision has already been conveyed to them."

He did not give a reason for scrapping the agreement. AOT, controlled by the investment vehicle of the late Belgian Baron Albert Frere, did not respond to requests for comments.

A senior official in state-owned energy company Petrobangla said AOT could still supply Bangladesh on the spot market.

"We didn't want to go ahead with them for a long-term deal ... But they have been shortlisted for spot LNG purchases," the official said.

Bangladesh has a 2.5 mtpa deal with Qatar which supplies the first terminal, the Moheshkhali floating storage regasification unit (FSRU), and a 1 mtpa deal with Oman will kick in once a second FSRU starts operations in March this year.

The nation of 160 million is expected to become a major LNG importer in Asia, alongside Pakistan and India, as domestic gas supplies fall.

But it has tempered its initial enthusiasm. Officials at one point were considering half a dozen import projects but have since pared the list down.

A government source said Bangladesh had taken on <a href="http://www.wionews.com/south-asia/bangladesh-set-to-sign-15-year-lng-import-deal-with-qatar-20175">too many LNG projects</a> without proper planning.

Bangladesh has imported 0.7 million tonnes, or 12 cargoes, since the first FSRU began regular operations in September, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. All of them came from Qatar.

When the second FSRU beings operations, Bangladesh will have an import capacity of 7.5 mtpa although it is expected to import 2.9 mtpa this year and 4.6 mtpa next, according to Wood Mackenzie estimates.

Bangladesh pays Qatar 12.64 per cent of the three-month average of Brent crude oil plus $0.5 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) and Oman 11.9 per cent of the three-month Brent crude average plus $0.4 per mmBtu.

Bangladesh and AOT agreed on a deal in February 2018 for the supply of 1.25 million tonnes per year (mtpa ) for 15 years but it was not signed.

Bangladesh has scrapped a liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply deal with Swiss energy trader AOT Energy, which had been close to being finalised, an official said on Friday. Bangladesh and AOT agreed on a deal in February 2018 for the supply of 1.25 million tonnes per year (mtpa) for 15 years but it was not signed. Since then, the country has installed its first import terminal and received its first cargoes, while prices seesawed. "The deal with AOT will not be signed," said Mohammad Quamruzzaman, managing director of the Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Co., which is in charge of LNG supplies to the country. "The decision has already been conveyed to them." He did not give a reason for scrapping the agreement. AOT, controlled by the investment vehicle of the late Belgian Baron Albert Frere, did not respond to requests for comments. A senior official in state-owned energy company Petrobangla said AOT could still supply Bangladesh on the spot market. "We didn't want to go ahead with them for a long-term deal ... But they have been shortlisted for spot LNG purchases," the official said. Bangladesh has a 2.5 mtpa deal with Qatar which supplies the first terminal, the Moheshkhali floating storage regasification unit (FSRU), and a 1 mtpa deal with Oman will kick in once a second FSRU starts operations in March this year. The nation of 160 million is expected to become a major LNG importer in Asia, alongside Pakistan and India, as domestic gas supplies fall. But it has tempered its initial enthusiasm. Officials at one point were considering half a dozen import projects but have since pared the list down. A government source said Bangladesh had taken on too many LNG projects without proper planning. Bangladesh has imported 0.7 million tonnes, or 12 cargoes, since the first FSRU began regular operations in September, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. All of them came from Qatar. When the second FSRU beings operations, Bangladesh will have an import capacity of 7.5 mtpa although it is expected to import 2.9 mtpa this year and 4.6 mtpa next, according to Wood Mackenzie estimates. Bangladesh pays Qatar 12.64 per cent of the three-month average of Brent crude oil plus $0.5 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) and Oman 11.9 per cent of the three-month Brent crude average plus $0.4 per mmBtu.

Bangladesh scraps 15-year Liquefied Natural Gas supply deal with Swiss trader

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/with-president-solihs-visit-maldives-resets-india-first-policy-india-reciprocates-with-14-bn-aid-package-184877">The president of the Maldives </a>has appealed to citizens to furnish details of graft during the term of his pro-China predecessor and earlier, as the Indian Ocean island investigates deals worth billions of dollars given to Chinese firms.&nbsp;

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/south-asia/maldives-new-president-solih-warns-state-coffers-looted-after-china-led-boom-177940">Since Ibrahim Mohamed Solih </a>beat Abdulla Yameen in a surprise election result last year his administration has been trying to determine the extent of Chinese loans used to fund a construction boom in the Maldives.

In a statement late on Tuesday, Solih's office asked the public to submit written complaints about "cases of corruption and abuse of power within state institutions", over a period of nearly six years from January 1, 2012.

Critics have said contracts were given to Chinese companies at inflated prices, for example, one relating to a bridge linking the capital Male to the main airport of the palm-fringed islands famous for their luxury diving resorts.

Yameen has denied any wrongdoing, saying he took on loans to accelerate economic development. The investigation also covers the final two years of the term of his predecessor, Mohammed Waheed, when the government took a $500-million Chinese loan for infrastructure and housing.

"Corruption was institutionalised under Yameen`s tenure," Hamid Abdul Gaffoor, a spokesman for Solih's Maldivian Democratic Party, told Reuters. "Some state institutions were totally looted."&nbsp;

China has been building ports, highways and power stations as part of its giant Belt and Road Initiative to boost trade and transport links across Asia and beyond.&nbsp;

But some of its projects are being criticised for high costs, lack of transparency and expensive loans, stoking fears the arrangement could push small countries, such as the Maldives and Sri Lanka, into a debt trap.&nbsp;

Since Ibrahim Mohamed Solih beat Abdulla Yameen in a surprise election result last year his administration has been trying to determine the extent of Chinese loans used to fund a construction boom in the Maldives.

The president of the Maldives has appealed to citizens to furnish details of graft during the term of his pro-China predecessor and earlier, as the Indian Ocean island investigates deals worth billions of dollars given to Chinese firms. Since Ibrahim Mohamed Solih beat Abdulla Yameen in a surprise election result last year his administration has been trying to determine the extent of Chinese loans used to fund a construction boom in the Maldives. In a statement late on Tuesday, Solih's office asked the public to submit written complaints about "cases of corruption and abuse of power within state institutions", over a period of nearly six years from January 1, 2012. Critics have said contracts were given to Chinese companies at inflated prices, for example, one relating to a bridge linking the capital Male to the main airport of the palm-fringed islands famous for their luxury diving resorts. Yameen has denied any wrongdoing, saying he took on loans to accelerate economic development. The investigation also covers the final two years of the term of his predecessor, Mohammed Waheed, when the government took a $500-million Chinese loan for infrastructure and housing. "Corruption was institutionalised under Yameen`s tenure," Hamid Abdul Gaffoor, a spokesman for Solih's Maldivian Democratic Party, told Reuters. "Some state institutions were totally looted." China has been building ports, highways and power stations as part of its giant Belt and Road Initiative to boost trade and transport links across Asia and beyond. But some of its projects are being criticised for high costs, lack of transparency and expensive loans, stoking fears the arrangement could push small countries, such as the Maldives and Sri Lanka, into a debt trap.

Maldives President Solih appeals to citizens for graft details under Yameen

Asian players are proving to be conceptually and bureaucratically better positioned in the 21st century’s 'great game' that involves tectonic geopolitical shifts with the emergence of what former Portuguese Europe minister Bruno Macaes terms the fusion of Europe and Asia into a “supercontinent.”

Yet, in contrast to the United States, Asian players despite approaching Europe and Asia as one political, albeit polarised and disorganised entity populated by widely differing and competing visions, may find that their historic legacies work against them.

US Naval College national security scholar Nikolas K Gvosdev argued that the United States, for example, was blinded to the shifts by the State Department’s classification of Russia as part of Europe, its lumping of Central Asia together with Pakistan and India and the Pentagon’s association of the region with the Arab world and Iran.

“The (State Department’s) continued inclusion of Russia within the diplomatic confines of a larger European bureau has intellectually limited assessments about Russia’s position in the world by framing Russian action primarily through a European lens. Not only does this undercount Russia’s ability to be a major player in the Middle East, South Asia and East Asia, it has also, in my view, tended to overweight the importance of the Baltic littoral to Russian policy,” Gvosdev said.

He warned that the US government’s geographical classification of Central Asia, Eurasia’s heartland has “relegated it to second-tier status in terms of US attention and priorities.”

US failure to get ahead of the tectonic shifts in global geopolitics contrasts starkly with the understanding of Central Asian nations that they increasingly exist in an integrated, interconnected region that cannot isolate itself from changes enveloping it.

That understanding is reflected in a report by the Astana Club that brings together prominent political figures, diplomats, and experts from the great game’s various players under the auspices of Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev.

Entitled, ‘Toward a Greater Eurasia: How to Build a Common Future?,’ the report warns that the Eurasian supercontinent needs to anticipate the Great Game’s risks that include mounting tensions between the United States and China; global trade wars; arms races; escalating conflict in the greater Middle East; deteriorating relations between Russia and the West; a heating up of contained European conflicts such as former Yugoslavia; rising chances of separatism and ethnic/religious conflict; and environmental degradation as well as technological advances.

The report suggested that the risks were enhanced by the fragility of the global system with the weakening of multilateral institutions such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and NATO.

Nazarbayev, Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan may be better positioned to understand the shifts given that they govern territories at the heart of the emerging Eurasian supercontinent and see it as an integral development rooted in their countries’ histories.

The then Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu made as much clear in 2013, “The last century was only a parenthesis for us. We will close that parenthesis. We will do so without going to war, or calling anyone an enemy, without being disrespectful to any border; we will again tie Sarajevo to Damascus, Benghazi to Erzurum to Batumi. This is the core of our power. These may look like different countries to you, but Yemen and Skopje were part of the same country a hundred and ten years ago as were Erzurum and Benghazi,” Davutoglu said drawing a picture of a modern-day revival of the Ottoman empire.

Erdogan has taken that ambition a step further by increasingly expanding it to the Turkic and Muslim world.

At its core, Erdogan’s vision, according to Eurasia scholar Igor Torbakov, is built on the notion that the world is divided into distinct civilisations. And upon that foundation rise three pillars: 1) A just world order can only be a multipolar one; 2) No civilisation has the right to claim a hegemonic position in the international system, and 3) Non-Western civilisations (including those in Turkey and Russia) are in the ascendant. In addition, anti-Western sentiment and self-assertiveness are crucial elements of this outlook.

Expressing that sentiment, Turkish bestselling author and Erdogan supporter Alev Alati quipped: “We are the ones who have adopted Islam as an identity but have become so competent in playing chess with Westerners that we can beat them. We made this country that lacked oil, gold and gas what it is now. It was not easy, and we won’t give it up so quickly.”

The Achilles Heel, however, of Putin and Erdogan’s Eurasianism is the fact that its geographies are populated by former empires like the Ottomans and Russia whose post-imperial notions of national identity remain contested and drive its leaders to define national unity as state unity, control the flow of information, and repress alternative views expressions of dissent.

Turkey and Russia still “see themselves as empires, and, as a general rule, an empire’s political philosophy is one of universalism and exceptionalism. In other words, empires don’t have friends – they have either enemies or dependencies,” said Torbakov, the Eurasia scholar, or exist in what Russian strategists term “imperial or geopolitical solitude.”

Erdogan’s vision of a modern-day Ottoman empire encompasses the Turkic and Muslim world. Different groups of Russian strategists promote concepts of Russia as a state that has to continuously act as an empire or as a unique “state civilisation” devoid of expansionist ambition despite its premise of a Russian World that embraces the primacy of Russian culture as well as tolerance for non-Russian cultures. Both notions highlight the pitfalls of their nations’ history and Eurasianism.

Both Erdogan and Russia’s vision remain controversial. In Erdogan’s case, it is Muslim more than the Turkic world that is unwilling to accept Turkish leadership unchallenged with Saudi Arabia leading the charge and Turkish-Iranian relations defined by immediate common interests rather than shared strategic thinking.

Similarly, post-Soviet states take issue with Russia’s notion of the primacy of its culture. Beyond the Russian-Ukrainian conflict over the annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s support for Russian-speaking rebels in the east of the country, Ukraine emphasised its rejection of Russian cultural primacy with this month’s creation of a Ukrainian Orthodox Church independent of its Russian counterpart.

Earlier, Ukraine’s parliament passed a law in September 2017 establishing Ukrainian rather than Russian as the language of instruction in schools and colleges. The law stipulated that educational institutions could teach courses in a second language, provided it was an official language of the European Union. National minorities were guaranteed the right to study in Ukrainian as well as their minority language.

Similarly, Kazakhstan, the Eurasian nation par excellence, shifted from Cyrillic to Latin script.

“Russia’s influence (in Central Asia) has been largely mythologised, and its role in both national and regional security has not been properly and honestly discussed. Different fears and phobias still influence the decision-making process, including those over Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, its annexation of Crimea, the concept of the ‘Russian World’ as a pillar of its national identity, and its soft power,” said Kazakh Central Asia scholar Anna Gussarova.

Ukraine may put a dent in the Russian World’s attractivity, but it does not amount to a body blow.

Gussarova cautioned that while Central Asian elites may recognise the risks involved in embracing Russian primacy, the region’s public remains far more aligned with Russian culture, at least linguistically.

“Whereas the expert community, which is supposed to shape public opinion, uses the English-language platforms Facebook and Twitter, the general public relies on Russian-language social media. This dichotomy underscores the limitations of any effort by the government and affiliated experts to shape public perceptions. At the same time, this gap shows greater public support for Russia and its activities, which makes nation-building and language issues difficult and sensitive,” Gussarova said. 
 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Asian players are proving to be conceptually and bureaucratically better positioned in the 21st century’s 'great game' that involves tectonic geopolitical shifts with the emergence of what former Portuguese Europe minister Bruno Macaes terms the fusion of Europe and Asia into a “supercontinent.

Asian players are proving to be conceptually and bureaucratically better positioned in the 21st century’s 'great game' that involves tectonic geopolitical shifts with the emergence of what former Portuguese Europe minister Bruno Macaes terms the fusion of Europe and Asia into a “supercontinent.” Yet, in contrast to the United States, Asian players despite approaching Europe and Asia as one political, albeit polarised and disorganised entity populated by widely differing and competing visions, may find that their historic legacies work against them. US Naval College national security scholar Nikolas K Gvosdev argued that the United States, for example, was blinded to the shifts by the State Department’s classification of Russia as part of Europe, its lumping of Central Asia together with Pakistan and India and the Pentagon’s association of the region with the Arab world and Iran. “The (State Department’s) continued inclusion of Russia within the diplomatic confines of a larger European bureau has intellectually limited assessments about Russia’s position in the world by framing Russian action primarily through a European lens. Not only does this undercount Russia’s ability to be a major player in the Middle East, South Asia and East Asia, it has also, in my view, tended to overweight the importance of the Baltic littoral to Russian policy,” Gvosdev said. He warned that the US government’s geographical classification of Central Asia, Eurasia’s heartland has “relegated it to second-tier status in terms of US attention and priorities.” US failure to get ahead of the tectonic shifts in global geopolitics contrasts starkly with the understanding of Central Asian nations that they increasingly exist in an integrated, interconnected region that cannot isolate itself from changes enveloping it. That understanding is reflected in a report by the Astana Club that brings together prominent political figures, diplomats, and experts from the great game’s various players under the auspices of Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev. Entitled, ‘Toward a Greater Eurasia: How to Build a Common Future?,’ the report warns that the Eurasian supercontinent needs to anticipate the Great Game’s risks that include mounting tensions between the United States and China; global trade wars; arms races; escalating conflict in the greater Middle East; deteriorating relations between Russia and the West; a heating up of contained European conflicts such as former Yugoslavia; rising chances of separatism and ethnic/religious conflict; and environmental degradation as well as technological advances. The report suggested that the risks were enhanced by the fragility of the global system with the weakening of multilateral institutions such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and NATO. Nazarbayev, Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan may be better positioned to understand the shifts given that they govern territories at the heart of the emerging Eurasian supercontinent and see it as an integral development rooted in their countries’ histories. The then Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu made as much clear in 2013, “The last century was only a parenthesis for us. We will close that parenthesis. We will do so without going to war, or calling anyone an enemy, without being disrespectful to any border; we will again tie Sarajevo to Damascus, Benghazi to Erzurum to Batumi. This is the core of our power. These may look like different countries to you, but Yemen and Skopje were part of the same country a hundred and ten years ago as were Erzurum and Benghazi,” Davutoglu said drawing a picture of a modern-day revival of the Ottoman empire. Erdogan has taken that ambition a step further by increasingly expanding it to the Turkic and Muslim world. At its core, Erdogan’s vision, according to Eurasia scholar Igor Torbakov, is built on the notion that the world is divided into distinct civilisations. And upon that foundation rise three pillars: 1) A just world order can only be a multipolar one; 2) No civilisation has the right to claim a hegemonic position in the international system, and 3) Non-Western civilisations (including those in Turkey and Russia) are in the ascendant. In addition, anti-Western sentiment and self-assertiveness are crucial elements of this outlook. Expressing that sentiment, Turkish bestselling author and Erdogan supporter Alev Alati quipped: “We are the ones who have adopted Islam as an identity but have become so competent in playing chess with Westerners that we can beat them. We made this country that lacked oil, gold and gas what it is now. It was not easy, and we won’t give it up so quickly.” The Achilles Heel, however, of Putin and Erdogan’s Eurasianism is the fact that its geographies are populated by former empires like the Ottomans and Russia whose post-imperial notions of national identity remain contested and drive its leaders to define national unity as state unity, control the flow of information, and repress alternative views expressions of dissent. Turkey and Russia still “see themselves as empires, and, as a general rule, an empire’s political philosophy is one of universalism and exceptionalism. In other words, empires don’t have friends – they have either enemies or dependencies,” said Torbakov, the Eurasia scholar, or exist in what Russian strategists term “imperial or geopolitical solitude.” Erdogan’s vision of a modern-day Ottoman empire encompasses the Turkic and Muslim world. Different groups of Russian strategists promote concepts of Russia as a state that has to continuously act as an empire or as a unique “state civilisation” devoid of expansionist ambition despite its premise of a Russian World that embraces the primacy of Russian culture as well as tolerance for non-Russian cultures. Both notions highlight the pitfalls of their nations’ history and Eurasianism. Both Erdogan and Russia’s vision remain controversial. In Erdogan’s case, it is Muslim more than the Turkic world that is unwilling to accept Turkish leadership unchallenged with Saudi Arabia leading the charge and Turkish-Iranian relations defined by immediate common interests rather than shared strategic thinking. Similarly, post-Soviet states take issue with Russia’s notion of the primacy of its culture. Beyond the Russian-Ukrainian conflict over the annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s support for Russian-speaking rebels in the east of the country, Ukraine emphasised its rejection of Russian cultural primacy with this month’s creation of a Ukrainian Orthodox Church independent of its Russian counterpart. Earlier, Ukraine’s parliament passed a law in September 2017 establishing Ukrainian rather than Russian as the language of instruction in schools and colleges. The law stipulated that educational institutions could teach courses in a second language, provided it was an official language of the European Union. National minorities were guaranteed the right to study in Ukrainian as well as their minority language. Similarly, Kazakhstan, the Eurasian nation par excellence, shifted from Cyrillic to Latin script. “Russia’s influence (in Central Asia) has been largely mythologised, and its role in both national and regional security has not been properly and honestly discussed. Different fears and phobias still influence the decision-making process, including those over Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, its annexation of Crimea, the concept of the ‘Russian World’ as a pillar of its national identity, and its soft power,” said Kazakh Central Asia scholar Anna Gussarova. Ukraine may put a dent in the Russian World’s attractivity, but it does not amount to a body blow. Gussarova cautioned that while Central Asian elites may recognise the risks involved in embracing Russian primacy, the region’s public remains far more aligned with Russian culture, at least linguistically. “Whereas the expert community, which is supposed to shape public opinion, uses the English-language platforms Facebook and Twitter, the general public relies on Russian-language social media. This dichotomy underscores the limitations of any effort by the government and affiliated experts to shape public perceptions. At the same time, this gap shows greater public support for Russia and its activities, which makes nation-building and language issues difficult and sensitive,” Gussarova said. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The rise of Eurasia: Geopolitical advantages and historic pitfalls

Trade frictions between<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/the-trump-china-trade-war-how-will-it-end-171248"> China and the United States </a>are already affecting business confidence and investment in Asia, a senior International Monetary Fund official said, warning that the fund could further cut its global growth forecasts in January.

Changyong Rhee, director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, said Japan and South Korea could be among countries in the region hit hardest by <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/us-china-agree-to-trade-war-ceasefire-more-talks-180930">the trade war</a>, given their reliance on exports to China.

"Investment is much weaker than expected. My interpretation is that the confidence channel is already affecting the global economy, particularly Asian economies," Rhee told Reuters.

"We see global growth a little bit slower than we forecast in October," he said on Monday.

Citing the potential fallout from the Sino-US&nbsp;trade war, the IMF cut its global growth forecast in October to 3.7 per cent for both 2018 and 2019, down from 3.9 per cent projected in July.

It expects Asia's economic growth to slow to 5.4 per cent next year from 5.6 per cent projected this year.

Rhee said there was a chance the IMF could cut further its growth forecasts when it reviews them in January, given signs of slowdown not just in Asia but in Europe and the United States.

"Uncertainty is so large ... uncertainty means you have upside potential as well as downside risk. At this moment, we believe the downside risk is a little bit higher," he said.

On China, Rhee said it was not resorting to big-scale stimulus despite growing external headwinds, given the need to deal with long-term challenges such as curbing excess debt.

"They aren't accelerating (stimulus) yet but taking the foot from the brake for the time being. But that doesn't exclude the possibility that if the trade tension escalates, if growth goes down, they are ready to use stimulus," he said.

"What we're concerned and what we're advising them is that the medium-term goals such as deleveraging are still important for financial stability," Rhee added.

"So when they actually try to use stimulus, we hope they can use more fiscal policy rather than credit expansion."

Trade frictions between China and the United States are already affecting business confidence and investment in Asia, a senior International Monetary Fund official said, warning that the fund could further cut its global growth forecasts in January.

Trade frictions between China and the United States are already affecting business confidence and investment in Asia, a senior International Monetary Fund official said, warning that the fund could further cut its global growth forecasts in January. Changyong Rhee, director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, said Japan and South Korea could be among countries in the region hit hardest by the trade war, given their reliance on exports to China. "Investment is much weaker than expected. My interpretation is that the confidence channel is already affecting the global economy, particularly Asian economies," Rhee told Reuters. "We see global growth a little bit slower than we forecast in October," he said on Monday. Citing the potential fallout from the Sino-US trade war, the IMF cut its global growth forecast in October to 3.7 per cent for both 2018 and 2019, down from 3.9 per cent projected in July. It expects Asia's economic growth to slow to 5.4 per cent next year from 5.6 per cent projected this year. Rhee said there was a chance the IMF could cut further its growth forecasts when it reviews them in January, given signs of slowdown not just in Asia but in Europe and the United States. "Uncertainty is so large ... uncertainty means you have upside potential as well as downside risk. At this moment, we believe the downside risk is a little bit higher," he said. On China, Rhee said it was not resorting to big-scale stimulus despite growing external headwinds, given the need to deal with long-term challenges such as curbing excess debt. "They aren't accelerating (stimulus) yet but taking the foot from the brake for the time being. But that doesn't exclude the possibility that if the trade tension escalates, if growth goes down, they are ready to use stimulus," he said. "What we're concerned and what we're advising them is that the medium-term goals such as deleveraging are still important for financial stability," Rhee added. "So when they actually try to use stimulus, we hope they can use more fiscal policy rather than credit expansion."

Trade war already hurting Asia, may cut global growth forecasts: IMF

Oil prices climbed by around 1 per cent on Wednesday amid a stock market rebound and on expectations that an OPEC-led output cut for 2019 would stabilise the supply-demand balance.

Disruptions to Libyan crude exports after local militia seized the country's biggest oilfield, El Sharara, were also buoying prices, traders said.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $60.86 per barrel at 0543 GMT, up 66 cents, or 1.1 per cent, from their last close.

US&nbsp;West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $52.22 per barrel, up 57 cents, or 1.1 per cent.

The higher prices came amid an increase in Asian share markets on Wednesday.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/not-concerned-about-being-impeached-trump-183372">US&nbsp;President Donald Trump</a> told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday that talks with China were taking place to defuse the trade dispute between the world's two biggest economies.

Despite Tuesday's more confident market, analysts warned of an economic slowdown.

"The global economy is set to cool in 2019-20, as rising interest rates and inflation begin to limit consumption in major developed economies, and market uncertainty weakens the fundamentals in emerging markets," the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said in its latest outlook.

British bank Barclays said in its 2019 commodities outlook that "the major risk to the near-term outlook relates to a faster-than-expected deterioration in economic activity".

In oil market fundamentals, a decision by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producers including Russia last week to cut supply by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) has supported prices this week.

"OPEC production curbs will stabilise the market," ANZ bank said on Wednesday.

Crude prices had lost a third of their value between early October and the announcement of the cuts. Some analysts warn, though, that the agreement may not have the effect hoped for.

Fereidun Fesharaki of energy consultancy FGE said in a note that the OPEC-led cuts would likely be "insufficient to mop up the inventories in the targeted three-month period till the end of the first quarter of 2019".

As a result, FGE said prices were "likely to hover in the $55-$60 per barrel range for Brent, with WTI sitting some $5-$10 per barrel below this given current fundamentals".

Undermining the supply cuts is soaring output in the United States, where crude production has hit a record 11.7 million bpd.

The United States is set to end 2018 as the world's top oil producer, ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) saying on Tuesday the nation's annualised average output would be 10.88 million bpd for the full year.

The 2018 output increase would be 1.53 million bpd, the EIA said, adding that it expected production to average an unprecedented 12.06 million bpd in 2019.

Oil prices climbed by around 1 per cent on Wednesday amid a stock market rebound and on expectations that an OPEC-led output cut for 2019 would stabilise the supply-demand balance.

Oil prices climbed by around 1 per cent on Wednesday amid a stock market rebound and on expectations that an OPEC-led output cut for 2019 would stabilise the supply-demand balance. Disruptions to Libyan crude exports after local militia seized the country's biggest oilfield, El Sharara, were also buoying prices, traders said. International Brent crude oil futures were at $60.86 per barrel at 0543 GMT, up 66 cents, or 1.1 per cent, from their last close. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $52.22 per barrel, up 57 cents, or 1.1 per cent. The higher prices came amid an increase in Asian share markets on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday that talks with China were taking place to defuse the trade dispute between the world's two biggest economies. Despite Tuesday's more confident market, analysts warned of an economic slowdown. "The global economy is set to cool in 2019-20, as rising interest rates and inflation begin to limit consumption in major developed economies, and market uncertainty weakens the fundamentals in emerging markets," the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said in its latest outlook. British bank Barclays said in its 2019 commodities outlook that "the major risk to the near-term outlook relates to a faster-than-expected deterioration in economic activity". In oil market fundamentals, a decision by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producers including Russia last week to cut supply by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) has supported prices this week. "OPEC production curbs will stabilise the market," ANZ bank said on Wednesday. Crude prices had lost a third of their value between early October and the announcement of the cuts. Some analysts warn, though, that the agreement may not have the effect hoped for. Fereidun Fesharaki of energy consultancy FGE said in a note that the OPEC-led cuts would likely be "insufficient to mop up the inventories in the targeted three-month period till the end of the first quarter of 2019". As a result, FGE said prices were "likely to hover in the $55-$60 per barrel range for Brent, with WTI sitting some $5-$10 per barrel below this given current fundamentals". Undermining the supply cuts is soaring output in the United States, where crude production has hit a record 11.7 million bpd. The United States is set to end 2018 as the world's top oil producer, ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) saying on Tuesday the nation's annualised average output would be 10.88 million bpd for the full year. The 2018 output increase would be 1.53 million bpd, the EIA said, adding that it expected production to average an unprecedented 12.06 million bpd in 2019.

Oil prices rise on Asian stock rally, OPEC-led cuts

After the recent G20 summit in Argentina, it is clear that global groups do not have the ability, strength and willingness to collaborate for creating a better world.&nbsp;

World powers are hopelessly divided over several issues. The deep divisions between Russia, US, EU, China, India, the oil majors and emerging economies is creating an environment where no one can really depend on anyone else.&nbsp;

And this does not include the increasingly irrelevant United Kingdom, which is still thrashing around with the Brexit noose around its neck. &nbsp;

The relationships between all these countries will become more complex before it eases off. For decades, western powers evangelised a type of globalisation that benefitted them more than the others. As Asian economies began to realise the unjust rules that had been foisted on the world, they revolted.&nbsp;

When they demanded equal access to their markets, western countries had to step back. Much of this tussle led to the near collapse of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), which appeared to have been created only to open emerging economies while protecting western markets.&nbsp;

Despite this, countries like India, China and Brazil managed to create economic strengths that could rival, or at least threaten the control of western economies.&nbsp;

As manufacturing shifted to China and services moved to countries like India and South East Asia, Europe and the US realised the weaknesses in their own economies.&nbsp;

Western powers used WTO to attack protectionism in emerging markets for decades. It was normal for visiting delegations to demand greater access in sectors with higher FDI limits. Now, the biggest howls to protect markets are emerging from EU and US.&nbsp;

The trade war between China and the US is the most prominent symbol of such a shift in attitudes. In many ways, China is clearing the way for emerging economies to follow. Develop internal strengths that can compete with the best in the world.&nbsp;

Security is the other dimension that grabbed the attention of the G20 leaders. However, there is not much that they can do. Russia is having its way in Ukraine. Saudi Arabia continues with its illiberal ways. US is refusing to fund NATO even as the EU wonders whether it has the resources to manage its own security.&nbsp;

In such a scenario, it is important that Asia determines its own future. Long dependent and impacted by the policies of the West, it is time that it created a new Asian order for itself.&nbsp;

At the recent Horasis Asia Summit in Vietnam, the former Director General of WTO and ex-Secretary General of UNCTAD, Supachai Panitchpakdi, was emphatic about self-reliance in the region. “We need a spirit of collaboration in Asia that can allow it to overcome its differences to become a formidable force in the world,” he stated.&nbsp;

For this, Asian countries have to create new frameworks of collaboration, which allow healthy competition and cooperation. The centre of economic gravity is shifting to Asia.&nbsp;

According to IMF’s regional economic outlook, China’s growth is projected to ease to 6.6 per cent, partly reflecting the authorities’ financial, housing, and fiscal tightening measures.&nbsp;

Progress in Japan has been above potential for eight consecutive quarters and is expected to remain strong this year at 1.2 per cent. And in India, growth is expected to rebound to 7.4 per cent, following temporary disruptions related to the currency exchange initiative and the rollout of the Goods and Services Tax.

The IMF goes on to say that Asia is expected to grow by around 5½ per cent this year, accounting for nearly two-thirds of global growth, and the region remains the world’s most dynamic by a considerable margin.

Add to this, growing consuming populations. A study by Brookings points out that half the world is now middle class or wealthier and most of it will be in Asia.&nbsp;

Calculations by authors Homi Kharas and Kristofer Hamel suggest that the middle-class markets in China and India in 2030 will account for $14.1 trillion and $12.3 trillion respectively, comparable in size to a US middle-class market at that time of $15.9 trillion.

The implication is clear. Asia will lead the world consumption and thus set the tone for economic growth.&nbsp;

Several initiatives have come up in recent years to bring Asia closer together. The most important among these is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). &nbsp;RCEP has the potential to become more than a free trade agreement and become a binding force for Asian economic giants. If negotiated in a fair manner, the agreement will enhance internal trade, investment and security linkages within Asia.&nbsp;

Several experts have cautioned India against being part of RCEP. The Indian government itself is in the process of listening to experts on the best way ahead at regional trade grouping. For India, it does make eminent sense to be an active and important voice in RCEP. This could help in creating an Asian order that decides its own future.&nbsp;

Even as the western economies resolve their internal issues, Asia has the opportunity to make the most of its resources to be the economic centre of gravity of the world.&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-time-for-a-new-asian-order-2692343">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

&nbsp;

After the recent G20 summit in Argentina, it is clear that global groups do not have the ability, strength and willingness to collaborate for creating a better world.

After the recent G20 summit in Argentina, it is clear that global groups do not have the ability, strength and willingness to collaborate for creating a better world. World powers are hopelessly divided over several issues. The deep divisions between Russia, US, EU, China, India, the oil majors and emerging economies is creating an environment where no one can really depend on anyone else. And this does not include the increasingly irrelevant United Kingdom, which is still thrashing around with the Brexit noose around its neck. The relationships between all these countries will become more complex before it eases off. For decades, western powers evangelised a type of globalisation that benefitted them more than the others. As Asian economies began to realise the unjust rules that had been foisted on the world, they revolted. When they demanded equal access to their markets, western countries had to step back. Much of this tussle led to the near collapse of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), which appeared to have been created only to open emerging economies while protecting western markets. Despite this, countries like India, China and Brazil managed to create economic strengths that could rival, or at least threaten the control of western economies. As manufacturing shifted to China and services moved to countries like India and South East Asia, Europe and the US realised the weaknesses in their own economies. Western powers used WTO to attack protectionism in emerging markets for decades. It was normal for visiting delegations to demand greater access in sectors with higher FDI limits. Now, the biggest howls to protect markets are emerging from EU and US. The trade war between China and the US is the most prominent symbol of such a shift in attitudes. In many ways, China is clearing the way for emerging economies to follow. Develop internal strengths that can compete with the best in the world. Security is the other dimension that grabbed the attention of the G20 leaders. However, there is not much that they can do. Russia is having its way in Ukraine. Saudi Arabia continues with its illiberal ways. US is refusing to fund NATO even as the EU wonders whether it has the resources to manage its own security. In such a scenario, it is important that Asia determines its own future. Long dependent and impacted by the policies of the West, it is time that it created a new Asian order for itself. At the recent Horasis Asia Summit in Vietnam, the former Director General of WTO and ex-Secretary General of UNCTAD, Supachai Panitchpakdi, was emphatic about self-reliance in the region. “We need a spirit of collaboration in Asia that can allow it to overcome its differences to become a formidable force in the world,” he stated. For this, Asian countries have to create new frameworks of collaboration, which allow healthy competition and cooperation. The centre of economic gravity is shifting to Asia. According to IMF’s regional economic outlook, China’s growth is projected to ease to 6.6 per cent, partly reflecting the authorities’ financial, housing, and fiscal tightening measures. Progress in Japan has been above potential for eight consecutive quarters and is expected to remain strong this year at 1.2 per cent. And in India, growth is expected to rebound to 7.4 per cent, following temporary disruptions related to the currency exchange initiative and the rollout of the Goods and Services Tax. The IMF goes on to say that Asia is expected to grow by around 5½ per cent this year, accounting for nearly two-thirds of global growth, and the region remains the world’s most dynamic by a considerable margin. Add to this, growing consuming populations. A study by Brookings points out that half the world is now middle class or wealthier and most of it will be in Asia. Calculations by authors Homi Kharas and Kristofer Hamel suggest that the middle-class markets in China and India in 2030 will account for $14.1 trillion and $12.3 trillion respectively, comparable in size to a US middle-class market at that time of $15.9 trillion. The implication is clear. Asia will lead the world consumption and thus set the tone for economic growth. Several initiatives have come up in recent years to bring Asia closer together. The most important among these is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). RCEP has the potential to become more than a free trade agreement and become a binding force for Asian economic giants. If negotiated in a fair manner, the agreement will enhance internal trade, investment and security linkages within Asia. Several experts have cautioned India against being part of RCEP. The Indian government itself is in the process of listening to experts on the best way ahead at regional trade grouping. For India, it does make eminent sense to be an active and important voice in RCEP. This could help in creating an Asian order that decides its own future. Even as the western economies resolve their internal issues, Asia has the opportunity to make the most of its resources to be the economic centre of gravity of the world. (This article was originally published on DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Centre of economic gravity is shifting to Asia

Asian shares wobbled in early Friday trade, struggling to shake off the previous day`s global markets rout, after weak results from tech giants Alphabet Inc and Amazon.com heightened concerns over world trade and economic growth.

The shaky start for regional bourses came despite a bounce on Wall Street overnight, which was helped by bargain-hunting and positive earnings from Microsoft Corp.&nbsp;

Those gains were put into perspective, however, as shares of both Amazon.com Inc and Alphabet Inc fell sharply after the closing bell on disappointing earnings.&nbsp;

Predictably, the Nasdaq futures turned down 0.9 per cent and S&amp;P E-mini futures fell 0.6 per cent, underscoring broad worries about US corporate earnings, and the outlook for the economy, which triggered a rout on Wall Street on Wednesday and sent global markets into a tailspin.&nbsp;

In Asia, MSCI`s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat after pushing slightly lower in the opening hour.&nbsp;

The index has been bruised by a heavy sell-off in the past several days, tumbling more than 3 per cent this week.

South Korea`s Kospi was also down 0.6 per cent, and Australia`s shares were hanging on to modest gains of 0.2 per cent. Japan`s Nikkei stock index was the biggest gainer, up 0.5 per cent, though that only partially erased Thursday`s 3.7 per cent slide.

Financial markets have been whipsawed in recent sessions on concerns over global growth as investors fretted over Sino-U.S. trade frictions, a mixed bag of US corporate earnings, Federal Reserve rate hikes and Italian budget woes. A slowdown in China has been particularly worrying for policy makers and investors, hitting asset markets from stocks to currencies and commodities.&nbsp;

Analysts at Capital Economics sounded a cautious note, suggesting that the bounce in the S&amp;P 500 index on Thursday was only temporary as investors worries about the economic outlook worsen.

"The first, and most important (worry) is that Fed tightening and fading fiscal stimulus will cause the US economy to take a turn for the worse ... The second is that China`s economy will continue to struggle," the analysts said in a note to clients.&nbsp;

"As we have been arguing for a while now, these worries are likely to get worse over the next twelve months or so."&nbsp;

Investors will get a chance to check the US economic pulse later Friday when the government releases third-quarter GDP data.&nbsp;

ANZ analysts highlighted weak US core durable goods data as suggesting that "investment is not taking off, even with the apparent tailwind from tax cuts and USD repatriation."

"This indicates that the boost to GDP growth from the fiscal stimulus could be fairly transitory," the analysts said.

In currency markets, the euro edged lower, extending weakness after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the bank`s 2.6 trillion euro ($2.96 trillion) asset purchase program will end this year and interest rates could rise after next summer, despite fears about the monetary union`s economic and political future.

The single currency was 0.04 per cent lower at $1.1370.

The dollar dropped 0.1 per cent against the yen to 112.29. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was also 0.1 per cent lower at 96.594.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose to 3.1073 per cent compared with its US close of 3.136 per cent on Thursday.&nbsp;

Oil prices gave up some ground after earlier rising on signals from Saudi Arabia`s energy minister that there could be a need for intervention to reduce oil stockpiles.

US crude dipped 0.85 percent at $66.76 a barrel. Brent crude fell 0.6 per cent to $76.43 per barrel.&nbsp;

Spot gold was flat at $1,231.75 per ounce.&nbsp;

Asian shares wobbled in early Friday trade, struggling to shake off the previous day`s global markets rout, after weak results from tech giants Alphabet Inc and Amazon.

Asian shares wobbled in early Friday trade, struggling to shake off the previous day`s global markets rout, after weak results from tech giants Alphabet Inc and Amazon.com heightened concerns over world trade and economic growth. The shaky start for regional bourses came despite a bounce on Wall Street overnight, which was helped by bargain-hunting and positive earnings from Microsoft Corp. Those gains were put into perspective, however, as shares of both Amazon.com Inc and Alphabet Inc fell sharply after the closing bell on disappointing earnings. Predictably, the Nasdaq futures turned down 0.9 per cent and S&P E-mini futures fell 0.6 per cent, underscoring broad worries about US corporate earnings, and the outlook for the economy, which triggered a rout on Wall Street on Wednesday and sent global markets into a tailspin. In Asia, MSCI`s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat after pushing slightly lower in the opening hour. The index has been bruised by a heavy sell-off in the past several days, tumbling more than 3 per cent this week. South Korea`s Kospi was also down 0.6 per cent, and Australia`s shares were hanging on to modest gains of 0.2 per cent. Japan`s Nikkei stock index was the biggest gainer, up 0.5 per cent, though that only partially erased Thursday`s 3.7 per cent slide. Financial markets have been whipsawed in recent sessions on concerns over global growth as investors fretted over Sino-U.S. trade frictions, a mixed bag of US corporate earnings, Federal Reserve rate hikes and Italian budget woes. A slowdown in China has been particularly worrying for policy makers and investors, hitting asset markets from stocks to currencies and commodities. Analysts at Capital Economics sounded a cautious note, suggesting that the bounce in the S&P 500 index on Thursday was only temporary as investors worries about the economic outlook worsen. "The first, and most important (worry) is that Fed tightening and fading fiscal stimulus will cause the US economy to take a turn for the worse ... The second is that China`s economy will continue to struggle," the analysts said in a note to clients. "As we have been arguing for a while now, these worries are likely to get worse over the next twelve months or so." Investors will get a chance to check the US economic pulse later Friday when the government releases third-quarter GDP data. ANZ analysts highlighted weak US core durable goods data as suggesting that "investment is not taking off, even with the apparent tailwind from tax cuts and USD repatriation." "This indicates that the boost to GDP growth from the fiscal stimulus could be fairly transitory," the analysts said. In currency markets, the euro edged lower, extending weakness after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the bank`s 2.6 trillion euro ($2.96 trillion) asset purchase program will end this year and interest rates could rise after next summer, despite fears about the monetary union`s economic and political future. The single currency was 0.04 per cent lower at $1.1370. The dollar dropped 0.1 per cent against the yen to 112.29. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was also 0.1 per cent lower at 96.594. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose to 3.1073 per cent compared with its US close of 3.136 per cent on Thursday. Oil prices gave up some ground after earlier rising on signals from Saudi Arabia`s energy minister that there could be a need for intervention to reduce oil stockpiles. US crude dipped 0.85 percent at $66.76 a barrel. Brent crude fell 0.6 per cent to $76.43 per barrel. Spot gold was flat at $1,231.75 per ounce.

Asian shares struggle to shake off rout despite Wall Street bounce

Ekta Bhyan won India's fourth gold at the Asian Para Games by topping the women's club throw event here on Tuesday.&nbsp;

Bhyan produced her best throw in her fourth attempt, 16.02m, winning the F32/51 event ahead of UAE's Alkaabi Thekra, who threw 15.75m.&nbsp;

The F32/51 class features athletes with significant impairment in hand function.&nbsp;

Bhyan had come into the competition on the back of a gold in the Indian Open Para Athletics Championship earlier this year.

India also secured three bronze medals on Tuesday courtesy Jayanti Behera, Anandan Gunasekaran and Monu Ghangas.&nbsp;

Ghangas finished third in the men's shot put F11, which covers vision impairment, and Gunasekaran in men's 200m T44/62/64 class, which deals with impairment in foot, ankle and/or lower leg but the athletes compete without prothesis.&nbsp;

Behera bagged the bronze in the women's 200m T45/46/47 event which is for athletes with limb impairment.&nbsp;

On Monday, Javelin thrower Sandeep Chaudhary produced a stunning world record effort as India bagged 11 medals, including three gold, on a productive day.&nbsp;

Ekta Bhyan won India's fourth gold at the Asian Para Games by topping the women's club throw event here on Tuesday. Bhyan produced her best throw in her fourth attempt, 16.

Ekta Bhyan won India's fourth gold at the Asian Para Games by topping the women's club throw event here on Tuesday. Bhyan produced her best throw in her fourth attempt, 16.02m, winning the F32/51 event ahead of UAE's Alkaabi Thekra, who threw 15.75m. The F32/51 class features athletes with significant impairment in hand function. Bhyan had come into the competition on the back of a gold in the Indian Open Para Athletics Championship earlier this year. India also secured three bronze medals on Tuesday courtesy Jayanti Behera, Anandan Gunasekaran and Monu Ghangas. Ghangas finished third in the men's shot put F11, which covers vision impairment, and Gunasekaran in men's 200m T44/62/64 class, which deals with impairment in foot, ankle and/or lower leg but the athletes compete without prothesis. Behera bagged the bronze in the women's 200m T45/46/47 event which is for athletes with limb impairment. On Monday, Javelin thrower Sandeep Chaudhary produced a stunning world record effort as India bagged 11 medals, including three gold, on a productive day.

Asian Para Games: Ekta Bhyan wins club throw gold for India

While China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been in the news for a while, Japan is slowly funding the building of supplementary trade corridors in the Mekong region, projecting itself as not only interested in building infrastructure but also trade facilitation through the human capacity building in the region. With a growth rate exceeding 5 per cent and a combined population of over 240 million, the Mekong region, which was devastated by the Vietnam War in the 1960s and 1970s, has now emerged as a new growth centre of Asia. With the exception of Thailand, the population of the region — that also includes Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam — is young, with more than 20 per cent of its residents below 15 years of age. In 2015, the combined total GDP in the region amounted to $673 billion, and the middle classes are growing right across the region. 
 
Japan’s renewed interest in the region is fuelled by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s enthusiasm for the US-inspired ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy’, which also ropes in India and Australia. China views this as a strategy to contain Beijing’s economic rise and increasing political clout in the region. Under Japan’s new initiative that has targeted mainly Cambodia, Myanmar and Vietnam, it is not only funding building of highways, railways and bridges, but also trade facilitation through the training of human capital for better flows of people and goods. A major criticism of the BRI has been the emphasis on the building of infrastructure and the lack of attention to building human resources in the countries concerned.&nbsp;

This has led to suspicions that China is building these trade routes for its own benefit and not to promote two-way trade. The ASEAN, whose membership includes all the Mekong countries plus five others, is worried that the increasing rivalry between Asia’s two major powers may sideline the ASEAN-centrality strategy of the regional grouping with respect to development issues. 
 
During the ASEAN Foreign Minister’s meeting in Singapore in August 2018, it was emphasized that the ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy should respect ‘Asean-centrality’ in building the regional economic architecture. At the same meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China would welcome the Japanese initiative for security and economic cooperation in the region, but warned that it needs more funding than what Japan is offering. The Japanese government has pledged $ 110 billion towards ‘high-quality’ infrastructure projects in Asia.

The Chinese government, over the last few years, has pledged some $4 trillion for numerous infrastructure projects in developing countries, that has the potential to make Asia the centre of the global economy. When China announced its grand Silk Route revival initiative (later renamed BRI) a few years ago, Japan expressed scepticism. But in May 2017, Abe sent a special envoy to the BRI forum in Beijing. And at the Hamburg G20 summit in July 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Abe met and discussed Japan’s interest in collaborating with China in implementing the BRI. While perceived disputes in the South China Sea have global attention, there is a greater conflict brewing along the Mekong river, where China has formed its own Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) organisation.

At the 2016 MLC Summit, China pledged $10 billion in preferential loans and another $10 billion in credit for the five countries to develop the region. It has triggered some 132 development projects in the region, but that includes building dams along the river that has upset Vietnam which is downstream. “It is impossible to discuss the LMC without putting it into the context of the BRI. The Mekong sub-region represents a key area for the BRI,” argues Nguyen Khac Giang, lead political researcher at the Vietnam National University in Hanoi. 
 
He points out that the so-called “signature projects” of the LMC, such as the Kunming-Bangkok road, China-Laos railway and Long Jiang Industrial Park (in Vietnam) are in the BRI framework; and most of the finance for LMC projects will come from China, either through the LMC special fund or the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Silk Road Fund.” The link with China’s ‘initiative of the 21st Century’ indicates that the LMC is part of a bigger bid by Beijing to seek a leadership role in the region, notes Giang. In the 1970s, Japan was credited with having helped the development of South East Asia with strategic investments in setting up industrial parks, where Japanese companies set up manufacturing plants to make use of the region’s cheap labour.

China began its investment in South East Asia much later and started committing funds for infrastructure development after 2000. China’s initiatives for connectivity gained momentum in 2013 when President Xi Jinping proposed the BRI.

“In the colonial past, the Mekong region was divided between two rival powers: Great Britain and France,” notes Furuoka. “With recent developments, the Mekong countries may want to work out an astute and ingenious diplomatic policy to counteract potentially contradicting interests in the region. Otherwise, they could once again find themselves becoming a ‘playground’ for rival powers in Asia,” he warns. 
 
(This article was originally published on DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-sino-japan-rivalry-intensifies-in-asia-s-growth-region-2672774">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

&nbsp;

While China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been in the news for a while, Japan is slowly funding the building of supplementary trade corridors in the Mekong region, projecting itself as not only interested in building infrastructure but also trade facilitation through the human capacity building in the region.

While China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been in the news for a while, Japan is slowly funding the building of supplementary trade corridors in the Mekong region, projecting itself as not only interested in building infrastructure but also trade facilitation through the human capacity building in the region. With a growth rate exceeding 5 per cent and a combined population of over 240 million, the Mekong region, which was devastated by the Vietnam War in the 1960s and 1970s, has now emerged as a new growth centre of Asia. With the exception of Thailand, the population of the region — that also includes Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam — is young, with more than 20 per cent of its residents below 15 years of age. In 2015, the combined total GDP in the region amounted to $673 billion, and the middle classes are growing right across the region. Japan’s renewed interest in the region is fuelled by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s enthusiasm for the US-inspired ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy’, which also ropes in India and Australia. China views this as a strategy to contain Beijing’s economic rise and increasing political clout in the region. Under Japan’s new initiative that has targeted mainly Cambodia, Myanmar and Vietnam, it is not only funding building of highways, railways and bridges, but also trade facilitation through the training of human capital for better flows of people and goods. A major criticism of the BRI has been the emphasis on the building of infrastructure and the lack of attention to building human resources in the countries concerned. This has led to suspicions that China is building these trade routes for its own benefit and not to promote two-way trade. The ASEAN, whose membership includes all the Mekong countries plus five others, is worried that the increasing rivalry between Asia’s two major powers may sideline the ASEAN-centrality strategy of the regional grouping with respect to development issues. During the ASEAN Foreign Minister’s meeting in Singapore in August 2018, it was emphasized that the ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy should respect ‘Asean-centrality’ in building the regional economic architecture. At the same meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China would welcome the Japanese initiative for security and economic cooperation in the region, but warned that it needs more funding than what Japan is offering. The Japanese government has pledged $ 110 billion towards ‘high-quality’ infrastructure projects in Asia. The Chinese government, over the last few years, has pledged some $4 trillion for numerous infrastructure projects in developing countries, that has the potential to make Asia the centre of the global economy. When China announced its grand Silk Route revival initiative (later renamed BRI) a few years ago, Japan expressed scepticism. But in May 2017, Abe sent a special envoy to the BRI forum in Beijing. And at the Hamburg G20 summit in July 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Abe met and discussed Japan’s interest in collaborating with China in implementing the BRI. While perceived disputes in the South China Sea have global attention, there is a greater conflict brewing along the Mekong river, where China has formed its own Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) organisation. At the 2016 MLC Summit, China pledged $10 billion in preferential loans and another $10 billion in credit for the five countries to develop the region. It has triggered some 132 development projects in the region, but that includes building dams along the river that has upset Vietnam which is downstream. “It is impossible to discuss the LMC without putting it into the context of the BRI. The Mekong sub-region represents a key area for the BRI,” argues Nguyen Khac Giang, lead political researcher at the Vietnam National University in Hanoi. He points out that the so-called “signature projects” of the LMC, such as the Kunming-Bangkok road, China-Laos railway and Long Jiang Industrial Park (in Vietnam) are in the BRI framework; and most of the finance for LMC projects will come from China, either through the LMC special fund or the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Silk Road Fund.” The link with China’s ‘initiative of the 21st Century’ indicates that the LMC is part of a bigger bid by Beijing to seek a leadership role in the region, notes Giang. In the 1970s, Japan was credited with having helped the development of South East Asia with strategic investments in setting up industrial parks, where Japanese companies set up manufacturing plants to make use of the region’s cheap labour. China began its investment in South East Asia much later and started committing funds for infrastructure development after 2000. China’s initiatives for connectivity gained momentum in 2013 when President Xi Jinping proposed the BRI. “In the colonial past, the Mekong region was divided between two rival powers: Great Britain and France,” notes Furuoka. “With recent developments, the Mekong countries may want to work out an astute and ingenious diplomatic policy to counteract potentially contradicting interests in the region. Otherwise, they could once again find themselves becoming a ‘playground’ for rival powers in Asia,” he warns. (This article was originally published on DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Sino-Japan rivalry intensifies in Asia’s growth region

Asian refining margins for fuel oil are set to hold near their current strong levels through the summer as increased use of the fuel by utilities to power air conditioners for cooling and disruptions to trade flows shrink global supplies.

"Robust power generation demand in the Middle East (notably Saudi Arabia) should result in lower fuel oil outflows from the region," said Iman Nasseri, managing director of energy consultancy FGE's Middle East office.

While fuel oil markets typically strengthen during the northern hemisphere summer months, four trade sources said fuel oil margins have demonstrated additional strength this year by shrugging off sharp gains in crude oil prices, which in mid-May climbed to their highest since November 2014.

The trade sources declined to be identified as they are unauthorised to speak to the media.

"Fears over falling Iranian supply ... structural falls in global supply and a strong seasonal demand uptick in the Middle East for power generation are combining to provide support," Vienna-based consultancy JBC Energy said in a research note last week.

Lower fuel oil output in Venezuela due to refinery outages and a lack of crude oil, and refinery upgrades in Russia, the Middle East, India and South Korea have all contributed to tightening global supplies of the fuel, used to generate electricity and power industrial boilers and ships.

With the fuel oil surplus in the Middle East shrinking this year and next due to increased oil-fired power plant expansions, the region is projected to become a net fuel oil importer by mid-2019, though only for a short period of time, Nasseri said.

Increasing Saudi Arabian power demand amid falling supply from there, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait underpin the big shift, he said.

The 180-centistoke high-sulphur fuel oil discount to Dubai crude&nbsp;on Monday&nbsp;settled at $3.21 a barrel, with Dubai crude holding above $74 a barrel.

In November 2014, when Dubai crude was last at similar levels, the same fuel oil crack or margin was at a discount wider than $6 a barrel.

Reflecting fuel oil's strength, the Singapore crack was the only one to post gains over the past few weeks, with ample supplies and rising crude prices weighing on other refined fuels, including gasoline and diesel.

"Fuel oil cracks should weaken as we move through (second-half 2018) as seasonal demand support wanes and destocking pressures from a highly backward&nbsp;market ... compensate for growing tightness in the fundamental balance," JBC said.

While strength in fuel oil markets subsides with the passing of peak utility demand, though, some analysts and traders see limited downside for fuel oil in the second half of the year.

In addition to tightening supplies, looming US&nbsp;sanctions on oil exports from Iran - a major fuel oil producer with exports of about 17 million tonnes in 2017 - could further limit fuel oil outflows, mainly to Asia.

Also, expectations of higher crude supplies in the second half of the year amid rising output from producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including the United States and Russia, could weigh on crude prices, potentially lending support to fuel oil cracks.

The trade sources declined to be identified as they are unauthorised to speak to the media

Asian refining margins for fuel oil are set to hold near their current strong levels through the summer as increased use of the fuel by utilities to power air conditioners for cooling and disruptions to trade flows shrink global supplies. "Robust power generation demand in the Middle East (notably Saudi Arabia) should result in lower fuel oil outflows from the region," said Iman Nasseri, managing director of energy consultancy FGE's Middle East office. While fuel oil markets typically strengthen during the northern hemisphere summer months, four trade sources said fuel oil margins have demonstrated additional strength this year by shrugging off sharp gains in crude oil prices, which in mid-May climbed to their highest since November 2014. The trade sources declined to be identified as they are unauthorised to speak to the media. "Fears over falling Iranian supply ... structural falls in global supply and a strong seasonal demand uptick in the Middle East for power generation are combining to provide support," Vienna-based consultancy JBC Energy said in a research note last week. Lower fuel oil output in Venezuela due to refinery outages and a lack of crude oil, and refinery upgrades in Russia, the Middle East, India and South Korea have all contributed to tightening global supplies of the fuel, used to generate electricity and power industrial boilers and ships. With the fuel oil surplus in the Middle East shrinking this year and next due to increased oil-fired power plant expansions, the region is projected to become a net fuel oil importer by mid-2019, though only for a short period of time, Nasseri said. Increasing Saudi Arabian power demand amid falling supply from there, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait underpin the big shift, he said. The 180-centistoke high-sulphur fuel oil discount to Dubai crude on Monday settled at $3.21 a barrel, with Dubai crude holding above $74 a barrel. In November 2014, when Dubai crude was last at similar levels, the same fuel oil crack or margin was at a discount wider than $6 a barrel. Reflecting fuel oil's strength, the Singapore crack was the only one to post gains over the past few weeks, with ample supplies and rising crude prices weighing on other refined fuels, including gasoline and diesel. "Fuel oil cracks should weaken as we move through (second-half 2018) as seasonal demand support wanes and destocking pressures from a highly backward market ... compensate for growing tightness in the fundamental balance," JBC said. While strength in fuel oil markets subsides with the passing of peak utility demand, though, some analysts and traders see limited downside for fuel oil in the second half of the year. In addition to tightening supplies, looming US sanctions on oil exports from Iran - a major fuel oil producer with exports of about 17 million tonnes in 2017 - could further limit fuel oil outflows, mainly to Asia. Also, expectations of higher crude supplies in the second half of the year amid rising output from producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including the United States and Russia, could weigh on crude prices, potentially lending support to fuel oil cracks.

Asia fuel oil margins to be supported through mid-year on strong demand

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