Will Vijay become Tamil Nadu Chief Minister? Permutations and combinations as resort politics starts

After actor-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerged the largest party in a stunning assembly election upset, Tamil Nadu has plunged into ‘resort politics’. TVK's 108 seats will come down by one to 107 as Vijay has won from two seats and will have to vacate one. The magic number in the south Indian state for government formation is 118. Having fallen short of that number, TVK needs external support. Let's look at the seat positions and what permutations and combinations are likely in the formation of the next Tamil Nadu government.

After TVK, the DMK led by MK Stalin (who himself lost to a TVK candidate in Kolathur) is the largest party with 59 seats. AIADMK, the other Dravidian duopoly party that traditionally alternated power with the DMK, has 47 seats. Congress, which praised Vijay and joined TVK by splitting from its alliance with DMK after the election resultsc came in, has 5 seats. Below is the situation with other parties:

PMK: 4 seats
IUML: 2
CPI: 2
CPM: 2
VCK: 2
BJP: 1
DMDK: 1
AMMK: 1
The rest are independents

DMK had led the SPA or Secular Progressive Alliance. If we consider Congress as part of the SPA as per the pre-poll alliance, the total for the alliance will be 73 seats (DMK 59 + Congress's 5, Left, VCK and some others).

The National Democratic Alliance or NDA, which is part of the BJP's broader alliance nationally, was led by AIADMK in the state. It has around 53 seats (AIADMK 47 + BJP 1 + PMK 4 and some others).

TVK, in effect, is around 10 seats short of the majority mark of 118. Even after Congress switched from the SPA and extended support to TVK, it still has only 113 MLAs. TVK needs more support. This is where smaller parties, independents, and possible turncoats would matter the most.

TVK, being the single largest party, has the first right to form the government and has staked its claim to the state Governor, who in turn insisted on written confirmation of support for a durable government.

TVK + Congress + allies is the most likely path for Vijay to become the CM, but he may still need 5 more MLAs.

Reports said that TVK is holding negotiations with Left parties CPI and CPM, VCK, IUML and independents. PMK is also a potential target for joining the government. Congress, which left the DMK-led SPA citing the need to form a secular government, is reportedly demanding Cabinet berths.

Though it was not part of the national INDIA bloc, TVK might integrate into that combination in order to add MLAs from the Left, VCK and others. This could eventually push TVK-plus towards or past the magic number of 118.

There is also speculation that up to 35 MLAs of AIADMK would join TVK if a rebellion is engineered, either for joining the government or offering outside support to TVK. This is not a confirmed formal alliance at the time of writing this.

Stalin has said that DMK will allow enough time to TVK to form the government. But there is also speculation that it is exploring a grand alliance of Dravidian parties. If it happens, it would bring back together the traditional rivals DMK and AIADMK just to block TVK from assuming power.

But remember that even that would not be enough, as their seats (59 + 47 = 106) are still short of a majority. The Dravidian duo would still need allies like PMK.

Such an alliance is highly contentious given the history of DMK-AIADMK rivalry. It would end up costing political capital for both parties, as such an alliance would be seen as desperate, and almost immoral.

Once again, horse-trading prevention moves, known in India as 'resort politics', are back. TVK has moved its winning MLAs to Four Points Sheraton and other luxury resorts in Mamallapuram and Poonjeri on Old Madras Road. The idea is to keep them isolated and prevent poaching by DMK or AIADMK.

There are reports that AIADMK MLAs have been moved to a resort in neighbouring Puducherry.

This is happening amid speculation of backdoor talks and attempts to lure defectors.

As of now, a TVK-Congress combination with some additional MLAs from the INDIA bloc, smaller parties, or independents is the most likely scenario. Crucial to watch would be how Left parties, VCK and PMK decide on joining or supporting a TVK government. There is widespread speculation of a possible split in AIADMK, already known for factionalism.
This situation is the first major test for Vijay's political acumen.

Whichever way it goes, this is going to be the first major hung assembly in Tamil Nadu in decades. While it gives hope to those trying to end the traditional DMK-AIADMK dominance, the feet of the government will still be wobbly.