Why Viktor Orban’s defeat in Hungry's parliamentary elections is major setback for Donald Trump

Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been ousted from power after 16 years, following conceding defeat to conservative Peter Magyar, who won a thumping majority in the parliamentary elections of Hungary. Defeat of one of the Western world’s most entrenched populist leaders from power marks a significant blow to nationalists, including US President Donald Trump, who supported him.

Viktor Orban first came to power as Prime Minister of Hungary in 2010. After holding his office, he immediately began changing the country’s system of government in order to ensure that he would never lose the election again. He devised the electoral rules to favour his Fidesz party, which held control over 80 per cent of the country’s media, packing the courts with men who supported him. The move ensured that elections in the country would favour Orban, making it next to impossible for the opposition to win.

On Sunday (April 12), a surprising political upset unfolded as 45-year-old Peter Magyar, a former insider of Fidesz who parted ways with Viktor Orban two years ago, emerged victorious. Leading the newly formed Tisza Party, Magyar secured a sweeping win. With 99 per cent of votes counted, his party captured 138 out of 199 seats, achieving a two-thirds majority, while Fidesz managed only 55 seats.

The outcome carries significance beyond Hungary, particularly for Donald Trump, a long-time ally of Orban. Just days before the vote, Trump sent JD Vance to Budapest to campaign in support of Orban. During the visit, Vance commended Orban’s leadership as an example for Europe and criticised the European Union for allegedly attempting to sway the election outcome.

Orban has been Trump’s most reliable and close ally in Europe while he was in power for 16 years. In 2018, when Trump first declared his presidential campaign Orban became the first EU head of state to lay a support to him. Since then, both of them have met continuously, with Orban travelling to the residence of Trump at Mar-a-Lago and the White House. A Brussels-based think-tank told AFR, “Orban is the poster boy of the far-right in Europe and beyond. “So if he loses, this says something about how you can democratically disentangle an undemocratic, illiberal system with the power of the citizens in that regard.”

The right-wing policies of Viktor Orban have reportedly influenced Project 2025, a controversial conservative blueprint linked to Donald Trump’s political agenda. Experts who have examined both Orban’s governance style and Project 2025 have pointed out strong parallels. In an interview with NPR last May, Kim Scheppele said she could clearly identify elements of Orban’s approach within the document.

“The first thing Orban did was to suspend the civil service law and fire huge numbers of public employees, particularly those in the public broadcast media. And the second move was that he weaponised the state budget,” she said. Comparable strategies were also observed in Washington after Trump returned to power last year. Orban himself acknowledged this connection in a speech, stating that his ideas had become part of Trump’s policy framework. His government in Hungary closely aligns with Trump’s global outlook, which favours a Europe that is anti-woke, anti-environmental regulation, and anti-immigration. Orban’s defeat is also seen as highlighting Trump’s reduced influence in supporting political allies worldwide.