US Midterm Elections 2026: Kansas, Texas, Ohio and more - The 10 closest races in America and why they matter
The US midterm elections are heading into a crucial stretch, with closely contested Senate and House races shaping the battle for control of Congress. From Kansas to Maine and Texas to Florida, here are 10 key contests to watch on November 3.
Which election races can decide control of Congress?
With just three days left until the November 3 midterm elections, several Senate and House contests remain too close to call. From Kansas and Iowa to Texas and Florida, these 10 races are drawing national attention as Democrats and Republicans battle for control of Congress. Can Donald Trump's party retain control?
1. Kansas Senate: Roger Marshall (R) vs. Adam Hamilton (D)
Republican Senator Roger Marshall is defending his seat against Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton. Polling has shown a remarkably tight race in traditionally conservative Kansas, with multiple late-October polling aggregators and surveys showing Hamilton holding a narrow lead (or tied within the margin of error).
Decision Desk HQ places Kansas among the closest Senate contests. A CNN poll cited by Forbes on October 29 showed Hamilton leading Marshall 49% to 45%. The race has also moved into the toss-up category in Cook Political Report's ratings.
2. Iowa Senate: Ashley Hinson (R) vs. Josh Turek (D)
Iowa is another closely watched contest. The race is particularly important because it involves an open seat, following Republican Senator Joni Ernst's decision to step down.
Decision Desk HQ includes Iowa among its closest Senate races, with Hinson leading Turek 55% to 45%.
3. Ohio Senate: Jon Husted (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)
Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is running against Republican incumbent Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.
Decision Desk HQ rates Ohio a toss-up. A Suffolk University survey reported by Forbes showed Brown leading Husted 47% to 44%. The contest is also rated a toss-up by Cook and Inside Elections.
4. Alaska Senate: Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Mary Peltola (D)
Former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola is challenging Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. Alaska features a competitive statewide contest, with Peltola's previous electoral support making the race worth watching. Decision Desk HQ rates it a toss-up, while a polling average published by The Boston Report showed Peltola ahead by 3.4 percentage points as of October 28.
Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics Polling Average showed Peltola leading Sullivan by 1.2 percentage points (49.4% to 48.2%).
Notably, Alaska's nonpartisan primary and ranked-choice voting system also make this a uniquely volatile Senate race.
5. Maine Senate: Susan Collins (R) vs. Troy Jackson (D)
In Maine, long-time Republican Senator Susan Collins is defending her seat against Democratic opponent Troy Jackson, former Maine State Senate President.
A CNN poll showed Jackson leading 49% to 45%. Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both classify the contest as a toss-up.
6. Iowa's 2nd Congressional District: Joe Mitchell (R) vs. Lindsay James (D)
With Ashley Hinson running for Senate, Iowa's 2nd District is an open House seat featuring Republican Joe Mitchell and Democrat Lindsay James.
The district has historically leaned Republican, and Donald Trump carried it by 10 percentage points in 2024. However, economic concerns, including the effects of tariffs and the Iran war on agricultural communities, have brought the contest into focus. According to Decision Desk HQ, James is leading Mitchell by 51% to 49%.
7. Texas's 15th Congressional District: Monica De La Cruz (R) vs. Bobby Pulido (D)
Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz faces Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido. Decision Desk HQ places the contest among the closest House races, with its model giving the Democratic candidate 52% and the Republican candidate 48%. The race is one of several Texas contests drawing attention as Democrats seek House gains.
8. Ohio's 7th Congressional District: Max Miller (R) vs. Brian Poindexter (D)
In Ohio, Republican incumbent Max Miller is defending his seat against Democrat Brian Poindexter. Decision Desk HQ lists the district as a toss-up, with its model giving Democrats 53% and Republicans 47%. The contest is among the House races where a relatively small change in voter support could affect the result.
9. Florida's 22nd Congressional District: Casey Askar (R) vs. Pia Dandiya (D)
The open-seat contest in Florida's 22nd District features Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar, a Marine Corps veteran. The district spans parts of Palm Beach and Broward counties and the city of Naples. ABC News identifies it as one of its House toss-ups. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats 54% and Republicans 46% in its forecast.
10. Maine's 2nd Congressional District: Paul LePage (R) vs. Matt Dunlap (D)
Democrat Matt Dunlap faces Republican Paul LePage in another open-seat contest. Decision Desk HQ includes Maine's 2nd District among its ten closest House races, giving Democrats 54% and Republicans 46% in its model. The race adds another competitive contest to Maine's already closely watched Senate battle.
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