Xi-Trump summit: Tehran, Taiwan, trade — five big issues on the table in Beijing

When US President Donald Trump arrives in Beijing on May 14 for two days of talks with Xi Jinping, he does so under markedly different circumstances from those he once imagined. A year ago, Trump insisted that sweeping tariffs would force China into submission. Instead, after court setbacks and months of economic disruption, expectations surrounding the summit have narrowed sharply.

The meeting, the first since both leaders paused a bruising trade war last October, is now focused less on dramatic breakthroughs and more on damage control. Trump is accompanied by business leaders including Tesla chief Elon Musk and Apple CEO Tim Cook, though the delegation is smaller than during his 2017 state visit. Analysts say Washington is now seeking limited gains on agriculture, aviation and strategic cooperation over Iran rather than any sweeping economic reset.

The war in Iran has become the most urgent issue confronting both leaders. Trump wants Beijing to use its ties with Tehran to support peace negotiations and help restore safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly half of China’s crude oil imports pass. Reuters noted that Trump’s Iran campaign has “plunged the Middle East into chaos and stoked a global energy crisis”. More than 60 per cent of Americans disapprove of the conflict, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Yet tensions have intensified after Washington imposed sanctions on Chinese firms accused of aiding Iranian oil shipments and providing satellite imagery allegedly linked to Iranian military operations, accusations Beijing denies.

Taiwan is expected to dominate private discussions. Trump has indicated he is prepared to raise arms sales to Taiwan directly with Xi. In December, he authorised an $11 billion weapons package for the island, the largest in its history, although deliveries have yet to begin. Beijing is pressing Washington to harden its language against Taiwanese independence. China’s foreign minister recently urged the US to “make the right choices” on Taiwan during a call with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. John Kirby, the former Pentagon spokesperson, told Reuters: “They just have to be so extraordinarily precise when you’re talking about Taiwan because, quite frankly, the stakes are enormously high.”

Artificial intelligence has emerged as a defining battleground between the world’s two largest economies. Guardian notes that Washington has accused China of stealing intellectual property from American AI laboratories “on an industrial scale”, claims Beijing rejects. At the same time, China remains frustrated by restrictions on Nvidia’s most advanced semiconductor exports. Although the White House approved exports of Nvidia’s H200 chip in January, shipments have not yet materialised. Officials and ethics experts are urging both leaders to establish basic AI safeguards, including information-sharing on misuse, military applications and autonomous weapon systems.

Trade remains central to the summit despite last year’s tariff truce. Trump had imposed tariffs exceeding 140 per cent on some Chinese goods, only for Beijing to retaliate by restricting exports of rare earth minerals and magnets critical to US defence and manufacturing industries. Reuters also reported that China wants assurances against future American trade retaliation and is seeking the rollback of existing controls on advanced chips and chipmaking equipment. At the same time, Beijing is expected to announce purchases involving Boeing aircraft, American agriculture and energy products. Discussions are also under way on extending the current truce over Chinese rare earth export restrictions.

Fentanyl remains politically important for Trump ahead of the US election campaign. Washington has long accused Chinese companies of supplying precursor chemicals to Mexican cartels producing the drug. According to Politico, Trump intends to press Xi aggressively on the issue during closed-door meetings. However, Beijing wants removal from the US State Department’s list of major illicit drug-producing or transit countries, adding another layer to already complex negotiations.

The news agency also reported that China and US are considering extending their temporary truce over Beijing’s rare earth export restrictions during this week’s leaders’ summit. However, Chinese customs data indicates that shipments of the critical materials, essential for defence systems, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, remain heavily restricted despite ongoing negotiations. The continuing supply squeeze has triggered shortages and rising prices across global markets, underlining how China’s retaliatory controls, introduced in response to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, continue to shape international trade and strategic industries even after many of the tariffs themselves were scaled back.