A lesson from 1984: Trump advised to take a page from Ronald Reagan’s Lebanon playbook for Iran
Donald Trump is going through a similar situation to Ronald Reagan's in Lebanon 42 years ago. The latter decided to exit the country after 241 officers were killed in the barracks attacks. A former counter-terrorism official has advised Trump to leave while the US still can.
Joe Kent tells Trump to leave Iran before it is too late
Joe Kent, the counter-terrorism official who resigned from Donald Trump’s administration over the war in Iran, has warned that the United States should exit the conflict before it is too late. He cited former President Ronald Reagan’s stance in Lebanon in 1984 as an example to highlight the importance of retreating. Kent said Trump should “recognise there is no way to force a positive outcome and simply leave.”
Kent tells Trump to follow what Reagan did in Lebanon and leave Iran alone
Talking about Reagan’s foreign policy on Lebanon and the withdrawal of troops, he said, “The region is not ours to fix. President Reagan chose this path in Lebanon in ‘84, withdrawing U.S. forces after the Beirut barracks bombing once it became clear the mission’s stabilization goals could not be met, effectively ending direct American military involvement and avoiding a deeper quagmire and long-term entrenchment in the region.” Kent warned that if Trump decides to target civilian infrastructure in Iran, he risks creating “another generation of radicalized Iranians who will rally around the regime and escalate the war by any means possible.”
Reagan entered Lebanon during the civil war
Kent’s comparison of the Iran situation with Lebanon reflects the need to recede while the US still can without any major damage to American defence. Reagan entered Lebanon to stabilise the country during its civil war and support a Christian-led government while getting rid of PLO/Syrian influence. He deployed US Marines as part of a Multinational Force in 1982 to oversee the evacuation of the PLO from Beirut. Trump also cites the internal dissent in Iran as a reason for America's entry into the country.
Attack on Marine barracks in Beirut killed 241 US service members
On October 23, 1983, the Marine barracks at Beirut airport were targeted by a truck bomb, killing 241 US service members. The outrage among Congress and the American public led Reagan to redeploy the Marines to US Navy ships offshore in February 1984. A few days later, the US Marine contingent fully exited Lebanon.
Kent says deal with Iran needs concession, doesn't guarantee an end
Kent says this is the route that Trump ought to take. Escalation would not benefit anyone, and the US could end up losing both forces and face. He said that to reach a deal with Iran, it is important to make concessions “on the enrichment issue”. However, even if that happens, “the IRGC is empowered to act without the consent of the civilian leadership, so it’s likely they won’t honor any deal reached.”
America risks eroding its standing in the world
Kent warned that attacking civilian infrastructure would prove to be “very destructive outcome for Iran” and “ will create another generation of radicalized Iranians who will rally around the regime and escalate the war by any means possible.” It will also erode America’s standing in the world, “the petrodollar, and eventually our status as the world’s reserve currency holder.” Citing these reasons, he said, “Don’t double down on failure. Avoid the sunken cost trap, leave now, and put America’s interests first.”
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