How many nuclear warheads lie in India and Pakistan's hands?

Amid heightened tensions following the Pahalgam attack that killed 27 people, Pakistan’s Minister Hanif Abbasi has threatened India with nuclear retaliation. In response to India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, Abbasi warned of "full-scale war," claiming Pakistan’s missile arsenal and 130 nuclear warheads are “kept only for India.”

Abbasi’s comments mark a dramatic escalation, yet a closer look at the current strategic balance suggests a different reality. According to the latest Status of World Nuclear Forces report by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), published in March 2025, India now possesses an estimated 180 nuclear warheads, overtaking Pakistan’s 170.

This marks the first time in over two decades that India has edged ahead in nuclear stockpile size, signalling a quiet but significant shift in South Asia’s security dynamics. The new data undercuts Pakistan’s bluster, highlighting a narrowing gap that once favoured Islamabad.

Nuclear stockpile figures are inherently uncertain as countries guard them closely. Despite the growing stockpile, the FAS report notes that none of India’s nuclear weapons are currently deployed; they are all held in reserve. Notably, India’s nuclear journey began on 18 May 1974 with its first successful test in Pokhran, Rajasthan, under the codename Smiling Buddha.

Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence strategy traditionally relied on tactical nuclear weapons to counter India’s conventional superiority. However, India’s expanding arsenal, combined with its growing missile defence systems and international partnerships, has altered that equation.India's nuclear arsenal includes several ballistic missile systems: Prithvi-II, Agni-I, Agni-II, Agni-III, Agni-IV, and Agni-V. India also has a nuclear-capable land-attack cruise missile, the BrahMos, and is developing the Nirbhay.

The SIPRI 2024 report had earlier foreshadowed this shift, estimating India’s warheads at 172 against Pakistan’s 170. The FAS confirmation further solidifies India’s current edge. The FAS report also suggests that Russia posses the strongest status in world nuclear forces with 5,440 inventory out of which 1,710 are deployed while 4,299 are in military stockpile. US follows Russia with a total of 5,277 inventories out of which 1670 are deployed.

While Pakistan’s leadership rattles nuclear sabres, the ground reality suggests diminishing leverage.