Tens of millions of dollars wagered on Polymarket over US attack on Iran as warships and drones swarm the region
Polymarket bets on a potential US attack on Iran have seen tens of millions of dollars being wagered and lost. The scene remains tense, and people are hoping to make money predicting when the strikes could happen.
Polymarket bets on Iran attack: Tens of millions of dollars lost
US-Iran tensions continue to shroud the world, with President Donald Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei taking shots at each other, threatening a war-like situation. The situation has persisted for weeks, ever since deadly protests ravaged Iran. This has led to bets being placed on an American attack on Iran, as people speculate on the timeline of the expected action. However, with nothing having happened yet, tens of millions of dollars have been bet and lost on betting sites like Polymarket.
Iran attack betting odds on Polymarket
According to reports, several wagers have been placed on the strikes and the ouster of Khamenei as the supreme leader. Current odds are highest for an airstrike happening by June 30 (61 per cent). For an attack on February 1, the odds stood at 1 per cent, and 2 per cent for February 2. The US had earlier announced that it had moved an armada of warships near Iranian waters.
Iran-Israel betting and insider trading allegations
Recently, there were claims that an Israeli insider used classified information to bet $128,700 on the attack. Israel’s public broadcaster, Israel.com, reported that this person likely has access to confidential information. This account opened on June 13, 2025, and made more than $128,700 by betting that Israel would take military action against Iran. The "Twelve-Day War" began between the two countries on June 13, 2025.
Polymarket wagers see big bucks being placed
Polymarket is a prediction website where people bet money on the likelihood of future events. One of the predictions was that Israel would strike Iran by January 31, 2026, while another pegs the date at June 30, 2026. People have been placing big bets on these predictions; however, only some of them end up making money, and a majority of them are losing.
Polymarket bets during Venezuela attack
When the US attacked Venezuela on January 3, 2026, one trader bid a lot of money on it mere hours before Trump announced the surprise nighttime raid. Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro was captured, and the bet that made money fueled suspicions of potential insider trading because of how correct the timing of the prediction and the bet was.
US deploys drones to watch Iran
The United States has reportedly taken steps towards a possible military action against Iran and deployed drones to survey Iran's defences on Thursday night (January 29). According to flight tracking data, a US Navy MQ-4C drone is watching activities near the coast of Iran, an MC-4C surveillance drone was spotted over the Strait of Hormuz, and a US P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft is also near Iran.
US warships near Iran: USS Abraham Lincoln and others
America has placed at least 10 US warships in the Middle East, according to reports. Aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is one of them and currently cannot be detected because it has switched off its transponders. The USS Delbert D Black is also among the warships sailing towards Iran.
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