Nobel-winning physicist says humanity's time on Earth could end soon, names ONE MAJOR threat
A Nobel Prize-winning scientist has warned that the world might have just over three decades of life remaining, mainly because of the nuclear weapons and no treaty to control their growth or use. He has warned that humans might annihilate themselves before achieving long-term survival.
Nuclear war could end human civilisation in 35 years
Humanity is only 35 years away from an existential catastrophe, according to Nobel-winning physicist David Gross. Several scientists have in the past pressed the alarm button, citing climate change, artificial intelligence and the threat of nuclear war as reasons for the end of the world. For Gross, the biggest thing that humans should fear in today's world is nuclear war. He has warned that "the danger of nuclear war" means we might have only about 30-odd years left on Earth.
One-in-50 chance of a nuclear war every year
In an interview with Live Science, Gross cited the estimate of a nuclear war breaking out after the Cold War ended. He said, even after all the strategic arms control treaties in all places, none of which exist today, the chances of such a catastrophe every year stood at one per cent. He says, the "chances are more likely two per cent. So that's a one-in-50 chance every year." Gross added, "The expected lifetime, in the case of two per cent per year, is about 35 years." The calculations are based on equations, such as those used for estimating radioactive half-life, modelling the probability of an event occurring over time.
Iran-US and Russia-Ukraine wars, and India-Pakistan conflict created dangerous scenario for the world
Gross has based his estimate on the current crisis in the world. With multiple conflicts happening at any time, the threat of nuclear war has become very real. The Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for four years, and nuclear threats have been made on several occasions. Then there is the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war, while he also pointed to the India-Pakistan conflict that almost turned into a full-blown war.
No active nuclear arms control treaties after New START expired in February 2026
Gross said there are nine nuclear powers today. "Even three is infinitely more complicated than two," he told Live Science. He warned that what aggravates the situation is the fact that no major nuclear arms-control treaties have been signed in the past 10 years. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), signed in 2010 between the US and Russia, expired on February 5, 2026. It limited deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550.
US and Russia hold 90 per cent of global nuclear weapons
It was the last remaining treaty between the world’s two largest nuclear powers. Both countries together are responsible for over 90 per cent of global nuclear weapons. The first treaty signed between the US, USSR and UK was the Limited Test Ban Treaty (LTBT) on August 5, 1963, in Moscow. It prohibited nuclear weapon tests in the atmosphere, outer space, and underwater.
Doomsday Clock stands at 85 seconds to midnight
This is also one of the biggest reasons why the Doomsday Clock was moved from 89 seconds to midnight to 85 seconds. The announcement was made on January 27 this year. Russia had announced three years ago that it was suspending the treaty, the last remaining treaty on nuclear constraints. A nuclear war is one of the biggest threats humans face in today's world, as wars ravage countries with no end in sight.
Artificial intelligence another threat to the world
Gross also named artificial intelligence as another source of annihilation. He fears that in this increasingly dangerous world of wars and conflicts, automation, or AI, could soon be in control of the weapons. Citing physicist Enrico Fermi's famous question, "Where are all the civilisations?" he said advanced societies could destroy themselves way before long-term survival is achieved.
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