Did US strikes really cripple Iran? Only one-third of its missile arsenal is confirmed destroyed, reports suggest
The campaign, known as Operation Epic Fury, has targeted more than 10,000 Iranian military sites since February 28. According to Central Command, about 92 per cent of Iran’s large naval vessels have been sunk.
Limited confirmation of missile losses
Nearly a month into the US and Israeli campaign against Iran, American intelligence can confirm the destruction of only about one-third of Tehran’s missile arsenal, according to sources cited by Reuters. The assessment, based on inputs from five individuals familiar with the intelligence, highlights the limits of battlefield verification despite sustained airstrikes.
Uncertainty over remaining stockpile
The status of another third of Iran’s missile inventory remains unclear. Sources quoted by Reuters indicated that bombing likely “damaged, destroyed or buried” weapons in underground tunnels and bunkers, but exact figures cannot be verified. A similar assessment applies to Iran’s drone capabilities, with only partial confirmation of losses.
Trump claims versus intelligence findings
The intelligence assessment contrasts with remarks made by US President Donald Trump in a Cabinet meeting on Thursday. Trump said Iran had “very few rockets left”. However, he also acknowledged ongoing risks, stating: “Let’s say we do a great job. We say we got 99% (of their missiles). 1% is unacceptable, because 1% is a missile going into the hull of a ship that cost a billion dollars.”
Pentagon and military assessment
A Pentagon official said Iranian missile and drone attacks have dropped by about 90% since the start of the war. The US military’s Central Command added that it has “damaged or destroyed over 66% of Iranian missile, drone, and naval production facilities and shipyards”. However, the US officials have not provided precise figures on remaining operational missiles.
Scale of US and Israeli operations
The campaign, famously known as Operation Epic Fury, has targeted more than 10,000 Iranian military sites since February 28. According to Central Command, about 92 per cent of Iran’s large naval vessels have been sunk. The strategy has focused not only on existing stockpiles but also on the infrastructure used to produce missiles and drones.
Challenges in assessing underground arsenals
A major difficulty lies in Iran’s extensive network of underground facilities. One US official said it may be impossible to determine the true scale of remaining weapons, noting uncertainty over how many missiles were stored in tunnels before the war. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged this, saying Iran has invested heavily in “tunnels and rockets”.
Iran retains strike capability
Despite sustained strikes, Iran continues to launch attacks. On a single day, it fired 15 ballistic missiles and 11 drones at the United Arab Emirates, according to officials. Analysts suggest Iran may still retain a significant portion of its capabilities. “If Iran is smart they’ve retained some of their capability,” said Seth Moulton, adding that Tehran could be “laying in wait”.
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