'Suicide mission begins': Why IRGC could burn Iran to the ground to avenge Khamenei's death
If the US and Israel escalate from airstrikes to a ground campaign, the IRGC will not fight them in the open desert. They will pull the war directly into the dense urban centers of Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz.
1. The Cult of the Divine Leader
To understand the IRGC's next move, you have to understand their ideology. For the Guard, Khamenei wasn't just a president or a prime minister; he was the "Shadow of God on Earth." His assassination isn't viewed as a mere military defeat. To the zealots within the IRGC's highest ranks, it is an apocalyptic religious desecration. Rational geopolitical calculus, like protecting the economy or minimising civilian casualties, has just been thrown out the window. The only acceptable response is maximum bloodletting.
2. The 'Dead Man’s Switch' Takes Over
The decapitation strike wiped out the top tier of Iran's command structure. When you cut the head off a heavily armed, decentralised military network, it doesn't surrender, it fractures. Control of Iran's vast ballistic missile silos and drone swarms is now likely falling into the hands of ultra-hardline, rogue IRGC generals. Without Khamenei to act as the ultimate brake on their aggression, these commanders have nothing left to lose. They are operating on a "dead man's switch," where the total destruction of their enemies justifies the total destruction of their own country.
3. The Blind Sprint for the Nuclear Bomb
Before the strikes, Iran had stockpiled an estimated 440 kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium. Crucially, much of this material was stored in deeply buried tunnel complexes, like Isfahan, that survived the initial bombardment. With international inspectors locked out and the regime fighting for its life, the IRGC has every incentive to rush that uranium to 90% weapons-grade purity. They are no longer building a deterrent to prevent a war; they are racing to build a doomsday weapon to use in the war.
4. Weaponising the Civilian Population
If the US and Israel escalate from airstrikes to a ground campaign, the IRGC will not fight them in the open desert. They will pull the war directly into the dense urban centers of Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz. By embedding their surviving mobile missile launchers inside civilian neighbourhoods, hospitals, and schools, the IRGC effectively turns millions of Iranians into human shields. Any incoming US or Israeli strike designed to take out a missile battery guarantees massive Iranian civilian casualties—a price the IRGC is fully prepared to let the population pay.
5. Uncaging the 'Ring of Fire'
For years, Iran carefully managed its proxy network, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias, using them for calculated, low-level harassment. That leash is now off. In a suicide mission scenario, the IRGC will order a total, uncoordinated launch of every single rocket, drone, and ballistic missile in the Axis of Resistance's arsenal. They will simultaneously target Tel Aviv, US naval destroyers, and Gulf Arab oil refineries.
Mutual annihilation
The IRGC knows that unleashing this swarm will invite an absolutely devastating, landscape-altering retaliation from the US and Israel that could physically wipe Iran off the map. But in their current state of religious fury, mutual annihilation is considered a victory.
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