'Something will happen...': Cuba next after Iran war? Trump's statement sparks speculations

US President Donald Trump said that something could happen in Cuba after Iran operations are over. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One while leaving for Florida from Washington, Trump said on Sunday (Mar 16) that Cuba hopes to make a deal. "Cuba also wants to make a deal, and I think we will pretty soon either make a deal or do whatever we have to do…we're talking to Cuba, but we're going to do Iran before Cuba...So I think something will happen with Cuba pretty quickly," he said. This comes after Cuba's President Miguel Diaz-Canel confirmed that his government had held talks over "bilateral differences" with the United States

Following the ouster of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela in January, the United States halted all oil shipments and financial transfers from Venezuela to Cuba. On January 11, 2026, US President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum on Truth Social, declaring that there would be “no more oil or money going to Cuba” and urging the Cuban leadership to reach a deal with Washington before it was too late. Later that month, on January 29, Trump signed Executive Order 14380, declaring a national emergency and authorising tariffs on any country that directly or indirectly supplies oil to Cuba.

Trump on Feb 27, raised the possibility of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, saying that the Cuban government was in talks with the United States and suggesting a potential agreement between the two sides. On March 5, 2026, speaking at the White House, Trump said Cuba “wants to make a deal so badly” but noted that the US needed to “finish Iran first” before fully focusing on the island. On March 9, during a news conference in Doral, Florida, Trump provided an update on the negotiations, which involved Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State.

“It may be a friendly takeover, it may not be a friendly takeover. Wouldn’t really matter because they’re really down to... as they say, fumes,” Trump had said. So, analysts point out that it may be about US-led transition of power in the country.

Cuba is the largest island nation in the Caribbean, located where the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea meet. It lies about 150 km south of the United States (Florida) and forms part of the Greater Antilles island chain.

Trump’s renewed focus on Cuba is part of a broader “maximum pressure” strategy aimed at weakening the island’s communist government and ultimately pushing for regime change. Trump has described the situation as a “question of time” before the Cuban government collapses, particularly after US actions in Venezuela disrupted Havana’s main source of subsidised oil and financial support. The strategy also reflects Washington’s geopolitical concerns, as Trump has portrayed Cuba as a struggling state that poses a security risk due to its ties with rivals such as Russia and China.