Mahabalipuram, a historically important place during the Pallava Empire, is all set to welcome Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 11 for his second informal meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 
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The two leaders had held the first informal summit in Wuhan last year, which significantly helped normalise the turbulent bilateral relationship in the aftermath of the 73-day Doklam crisis. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China and his administration’s decision to increase tariffs on Indian goods, has also generated the prospect of improvement in relations between New Delhi and Beijing.

This became evident when China agreed to address India’s concern about the increasing bilateral trade deficit, deciding to take measures to increase import of rice and sugar and accelerate the process of review and approvals of Indian pharmaceuticals and agricultural goods.

However, China’s promise in this regard proved only rhetoric, with the trade deficit having touched US$ 57.86 billion in 2018. Moreover, India’s exports to China declined by 1.62 per cent to reach $7.70 billion in the first six months of 2019. While economic and trade issues have been a major bone of contention between the two sides, recent developments have added to the rising tensions. India’s decision to abrogate Article 370 and divide the Indian state of Jammu &amp; Kashmir into two union territories: Jammu &amp; Kashmir and Ladakh, has not gone down too well with the big dragon.

China’s position on the Kashmir issue is clear and consistent, a Chinese government spokesperson said, adding that it is a legacy of history between India and Pakistan, which it says is also the consensus of the international community. China also expressed its opposition to India’s move to create a separate Union Territory of Ladakh, saying that there are areas of dispute between the two nations which, according to Beijing, affects China’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Beijing even went to the extent of raising this issue at the General Assembly and the Security Council of the United Nations, miserably failing to garner any favourable response of the world community.

While India strongly responded to China’s attempt to interfere in its internal matter, the global community became sharply aware of how strongly China was trying to protect Pakistan, a breeding ground for terrorists.

In August, the armed forces of China and Pakistan held the Shaheen-VIII air force joint exercise. And, just before Jinping’s India visit, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan will be in China to boost bilateral strategic ties.

China’s expanding presence in South Asian countries also has serious ramifications for India’s security. This is why over the last five years, the Modi government has taken all possible efforts to improve ties with its neighbours.

The recent opening of the oil pipeline between India and Nepal will have a profound impact on cementing relations between the two friendly countries.

Another stumbling block between India and China is the long-standing border dispute. While both the countries have reaffirmed their commitment to resolve this problem through peaceful means, China’s assertive posturing against India along the border in the recent times has underscored their real intent.

While Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India, Beijing - referring to it as South Tibet - puts its claim over the state. In turn, when the Indian armed forces have just concluded “Him Vijay” – the biggest ever mountain combat exercise, China has objected to such exercises, putting a big question mark over the outcome of the upcoming meeting between Modi and Xi.

The expanding ties between India and the US and Modi’s government’s decision to endorse the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy have also created an impression in China about India becoming part of a larger US containment policy towards it.

While it is logical for India and China to compete with each other, as the two aspire to play a pivotal role in shaping the geo-strategic direction of Asia, it must be backed by peace, security, development and prosperity. One can only hope that during his upcoming visit, President Xi will make some concrete announcements to boost bilateral ties between the two nations. 
 
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(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-from-wuhan-to-mahabalipuram-under-the-shadow-of-kashmir-2795438">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) &nbsp; 
&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Mahabalipuram, a historically important place during the Pallava Empire, is all set to welcome Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 11 for his second informal meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Mahabalipuram, a historically important place during the Pallava Empire, is all set to welcome Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 11 for his second informal meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Advertisement The two leaders had held the first informal summit in Wuhan last year, which significantly helped normalise the turbulent bilateral relationship in the aftermath of the 73-day Doklam crisis. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China and his administration’s decision to increase tariffs on Indian goods, has also generated the prospect of improvement in relations between New Delhi and Beijing. This became evident when China agreed to address India’s concern about the increasing bilateral trade deficit, deciding to take measures to increase import of rice and sugar and accelerate the process of review and approvals of Indian pharmaceuticals and agricultural goods. However, China’s promise in this regard proved only rhetoric, with the trade deficit having touched US$ 57.86 billion in 2018. Moreover, India’s exports to China declined by 1.62 per cent to reach $7.70 billion in the first six months of 2019. While economic and trade issues have been a major bone of contention between the two sides, recent developments have added to the rising tensions. India’s decision to abrogate Article 370 and divide the Indian state of Jammu & Kashmir into two union territories: Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, has not gone down too well with the big dragon. China’s position on the Kashmir issue is clear and consistent, a Chinese government spokesperson said, adding that it is a legacy of history between India and Pakistan, which it says is also the consensus of the international community. China also expressed its opposition to India’s move to create a separate Union Territory of Ladakh, saying that there are areas of dispute between the two nations which, according to Beijing, affects China’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Beijing even went to the extent of raising this issue at the General Assembly and the Security Council of the United Nations, miserably failing to garner any favourable response of the world community. While India strongly responded to China’s attempt to interfere in its internal matter, the global community became sharply aware of how strongly China was trying to protect Pakistan, a breeding ground for terrorists. In August, the armed forces of China and Pakistan held the Shaheen-VIII air force joint exercise. And, just before Jinping’s India visit, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan will be in China to boost bilateral strategic ties. China’s expanding presence in South Asian countries also has serious ramifications for India’s security. This is why over the last five years, the Modi government has taken all possible efforts to improve ties with its neighbours. The recent opening of the oil pipeline between India and Nepal will have a profound impact on cementing relations between the two friendly countries. Another stumbling block between India and China is the long-standing border dispute. While both the countries have reaffirmed their commitment to resolve this problem through peaceful means, China’s assertive posturing against India along the border in the recent times has underscored their real intent. While Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India, Beijing - referring to it as South Tibet - puts its claim over the state. In turn, when the Indian armed forces have just concluded “Him Vijay” – the biggest ever mountain combat exercise, China has objected to such exercises, putting a big question mark over the outcome of the upcoming meeting between Modi and Xi. The expanding ties between India and the US and Modi’s government’s decision to endorse the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy have also created an impression in China about India becoming part of a larger US containment policy towards it. While it is logical for India and China to compete with each other, as the two aspire to play a pivotal role in shaping the geo-strategic direction of Asia, it must be backed by peace, security, development and prosperity. One can only hope that during his upcoming visit, President Xi will make some concrete announcements to boost bilateral ties between the two nations. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Kashmir shadow looms large over Narendra Modi-Xi Jinping meet

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be on a two-day visit to Vladivostok on September 4-5 to attend the meeting of the Eastern Economic Forum as the chief guest.

The visit will provide an opportunity for PM Modi and President Vladimir Putin to hold the 20th annual bilateral summit at a time when the international political system has become unpredictable due to several factors, including the ongoing trade war between the US and China and the turbulent ties between Moscow and Washington.&nbsp;

Undoubtedly, Russia has been a time-tested friend of India, with the two sides having transformed their relationship into a strategic partnership.&nbsp;

Yet, in the past few years, the relationship between the two has seen some testing moments. The expanding India-US engagement, the strengthening Russia-China cooperation and also Moscow’s move to engage with Pakistan, have all proved to be hiccups.&nbsp;

However, before this relationship could further roll down the path, India and Russia began to take calibrated steps to address each other’s concerns in order to sustain and boost their time-tested engagement. &nbsp;The first step in this direction was the conclusion of the contract for the Indian purchase of Russian S-400 air defence missile system during Modi’s visit to Russia last year, sending a clear message about the importance that New Delhi accords to Moscow. &nbsp; On the other hand, by extending his full support to India on the abrogation of Article 370, President Putin has indicated Russia’s commitment to protecting India’s interests.&nbsp;

At the same time, in the fast-changing geostrategic and economic environment of the Indo-Pacific, cooperation across a wide spectrum of areas between India and Russia has become all the more compelling, as the two sides wish to see the emergence of a multi-polar order in the region.

Though India welcomed President Donald Trump’s concept of ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’, Modi in Singapore in 2018 made it very clear that the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) is not an exclusive club of the four countries, keeping the door open for others to join it.&nbsp;

For India, China’s assertive posturing against it on the border, Beijing efforts to strengthen its foothold in South Asia and the Indian Ocean and bolstering China-Pakistan ties are other factors to advance cooperation with Russia.&nbsp;

While it is true that the US factor has in recent times cemented the China-Russia bond, Moscow is also closely watching Beijing’s increasing clout in the region and beyond. Consequently, Russia sees India as a natural friend in ensuring that China does not emerge as another hegemon in the Eurasian region. Moscow is also concerned about Beijing’s rising influence in Central Asia. India and Russia are expected to sign a defence logistics pact during Modi’s visit, which will enable the navies of the two countries to access each other’s ports and exclusive economic zones, among other facilities.

While the two sides share strong strategic and military interests, the economic dimension of the relationship is equally important. Bilateral trade between the two was recorded at $7.71 billion in 2016 and the two sides have a long way to go to realise the full potential in this area. Delhi and Moscow have set a target of $30 billion in bilateral trade by 2025.&nbsp;

In this connection, the Russian Far East Region, including Vladivostok, could prove to be instrumental in boosting economic ties, since this area is underdeveloped, but is blessed with huge natural resources.&nbsp;

This is why India and Russia are considering the possibility of a sea route between Chennai and Vladivostok. A delegation led by Minister of Railways and Commerce, Piyush Goyal, recently visited Vladivostok to explore business opportunities.&nbsp;

Modi and Putin are expected to discuss a proposal to establish a free trade zone between India and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a five-nation grouping, comprising Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Belarus, formed in 2015 to create conditions for stable economic development of the member states. While India and Russia are members of the BRICS and SCO, Moscow’s support is very vital for India in the UN Security Council and other international organisations.&nbsp;

 
(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-pm-modi-s-russia-visit-crucial-in-unpredictable-global-times-2787277">original article</a>) 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be on a two-day visit to Vladivostok on September 4-5 to attend the meeting of the Eastern Economic Forum as the chief guest. The visit will provide an opportunity for PM Modi and President Vladimir Putin to hold the 20th annual bilateral summit at a time when the international political system has become unpredictable due to several factors, including the ongoing trade war between the US and China and the turbulent ties between Moscow and Washington.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be on a two-day visit to Vladivostok on September 4-5 to attend the meeting of the Eastern Economic Forum as the chief guest. The visit will provide an opportunity for PM Modi and President Vladimir Putin to hold the 20th annual bilateral summit at a time when the international political system has become unpredictable due to several factors, including the ongoing trade war between the US and China and the turbulent ties between Moscow and Washington. Undoubtedly, Russia has been a time-tested friend of India, with the two sides having transformed their relationship into a strategic partnership. Yet, in the past few years, the relationship between the two has seen some testing moments. The expanding India-US engagement, the strengthening Russia-China cooperation and also Moscow’s move to engage with Pakistan, have all proved to be hiccups. However, before this relationship could further roll down the path, India and Russia began to take calibrated steps to address each other’s concerns in order to sustain and boost their time-tested engagement. The first step in this direction was the conclusion of the contract for the Indian purchase of Russian S-400 air defence missile system during Modi’s visit to Russia last year, sending a clear message about the importance that New Delhi accords to Moscow. On the other hand, by extending his full support to India on the abrogation of Article 370, President Putin has indicated Russia’s commitment to protecting India’s interests. At the same time, in the fast-changing geostrategic and economic environment of the Indo-Pacific, cooperation across a wide spectrum of areas between India and Russia has become all the more compelling, as the two sides wish to see the emergence of a multi-polar order in the region. Though India welcomed President Donald Trump’s concept of ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’, Modi in Singapore in 2018 made it very clear that the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) is not an exclusive club of the four countries, keeping the door open for others to join it. For India, China’s assertive posturing against it on the border, Beijing efforts to strengthen its foothold in South Asia and the Indian Ocean and bolstering China-Pakistan ties are other factors to advance cooperation with Russia. While it is true that the US factor has in recent times cemented the China-Russia bond, Moscow is also closely watching Beijing’s increasing clout in the region and beyond. Consequently, Russia sees India as a natural friend in ensuring that China does not emerge as another hegemon in the Eurasian region. Moscow is also concerned about Beijing’s rising influence in Central Asia. India and Russia are expected to sign a defence logistics pact during Modi’s visit, which will enable the navies of the two countries to access each other’s ports and exclusive economic zones, among other facilities. While the two sides share strong strategic and military interests, the economic dimension of the relationship is equally important. Bilateral trade between the two was recorded at $7.71 billion in 2016 and the two sides have a long way to go to realise the full potential in this area. Delhi and Moscow have set a target of $30 billion in bilateral trade by 2025. In this connection, the Russian Far East Region, including Vladivostok, could prove to be instrumental in boosting economic ties, since this area is underdeveloped, but is blessed with huge natural resources. This is why India and Russia are considering the possibility of a sea route between Chennai and Vladivostok. A delegation led by Minister of Railways and Commerce, Piyush Goyal, recently visited Vladivostok to explore business opportunities. Modi and Putin are expected to discuss a proposal to establish a free trade zone between India and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a five-nation grouping, comprising Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Belarus, formed in 2015 to create conditions for stable economic development of the member states. While India and Russia are members of the BRICS and SCO, Moscow’s support is very vital for India in the UN Security Council and other international organisations. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Russia visit crucial in unpredictable global times

Ever since the Union government decided to abrogate Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and to divide the state into two Union territories – Jammu &amp; Kashmir and Ladakh, all efforts have been made to restore full normalcy in Kashmir.&nbsp;

In turn, no major incident of mass protest or loss of life and property has so far been reported in the Valley. However, China and Pakistan have unsuccessfully tried to internationalise the issue.

True, Kashmir has been a major bone of contention between India and Pakistan since the Partition. But it is also a fact that the erstwhile state, including Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), has been an undisputed part of India since 1947 when Maharaja Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession, following the attack by Pakistan-sponsored tribesman.&nbsp;

Subsequently, the purpose of inserting temporary Articles 370 and 35 (A) was to expedite the process of integration of the state with the rest of India.&nbsp;

Sadly, over the last 70 years, these provisions, coupled with vested interests of regional political parties and separatist groups, the era of coalition politics and the Congress party’s half-hearted approach to address the Kashmir problem, have chocked developmental activities in Jammu &amp; Kashmir.&nbsp;

While the Modi government’s decision has received overwhelming support in Parliament and outside, Pakistan is trying hard to project an alarming picture of Kashmir before the international community.&nbsp;

In doing so, the Imran Khan government has downgraded diplomatic ties with India by expelling Ajay Bisaria, India’s High Commissioner to Pakistan. Islamabad has also stopped bilateral trade and the Samjhauta Express, among other unilateral steps. &nbsp;

However, the fact remains that the international community’s reaction to the recent changes concerning Jammu &amp; Kashmir has largely been in India’s favour.&nbsp;

The United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, refused to intervene in the Kashmir matter, invoking the Shimla Agreement of 1972 that does not allow third-party mediation in this issue.&nbsp;

Russia has also endorsed the Modi government’s move, saying the abrogation of Article 370 is an internal affair of India. The US has said that both India and Pakistan should maintain restraint and hold direct talks to resolve the Kashmir issue while South Asian countries, including Bangladesh and Maldives, have backed India.&nbsp;

In a surprise development, the Taliban strongly criticised Pakistan for linking the increased tensions between Islamabad and New Delhi with the situation in Afghanistan. Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahed said, “The issue of Afghanistan is not related to Kashmir,” and urged India and Pakistan not to turn Afghanistan into the “theatre of competition between other countries.”&nbsp;

The Taliban’s statement is very important for India: First, it shows the outfit’s desire to hold talks with New Delhi and second, the Taliban does not want to be seen as a puppet of Pakistan.&nbsp;

This, in turn, will help India protect its interests in Afghanistan, given the fact that over the years, New Delhi has invested over $3 billion in development activities in this country.&nbsp;

China is the only major country that has criticised India’s recent decision concerning Jammu &amp; Kashmir. The reason for China’s criticism emerges from the fact that it enjoys a close relationship with Pakistan. Additionally, the Union territory of Ladakh also includes Aksai Chin, which is currently under China’s control.&nbsp;

In turn, India has re-emphasised its claim over this area. New Delhi would also be in a better position to effectively deal with any Pakistani and Chinese design, especially since the CPEC passes through this region.&nbsp;

With the Security Council refusing to interfere in the Kashmir issue, efforts towards accelerating development activities and strengthening democratic institutions should be a major priority for the government.

It will ensure that the people of Kashmir do not again fall into the trap of separatist groups and other vested interests in the Valley.&nbsp; 
 
(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-time-to-open-line-with-taliban-to-safeguard-afghan-interests-2785722">original article</a>) 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

Ever since the Union government decided to abrogate Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and to divide the state into two Union territories – Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, all efforts have been made to restore full normalcy in Kashmir.

Ever since the Union government decided to abrogate Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and to divide the state into two Union territories – Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, all efforts have been made to restore full normalcy in Kashmir. In turn, no major incident of mass protest or loss of life and property has so far been reported in the Valley. However, China and Pakistan have unsuccessfully tried to internationalise the issue. True, Kashmir has been a major bone of contention between India and Pakistan since the Partition. But it is also a fact that the erstwhile state, including Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), has been an undisputed part of India since 1947 when Maharaja Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession, following the attack by Pakistan-sponsored tribesman. Subsequently, the purpose of inserting temporary Articles 370 and 35 (A) was to expedite the process of integration of the state with the rest of India. Sadly, over the last 70 years, these provisions, coupled with vested interests of regional political parties and separatist groups, the era of coalition politics and the Congress party’s half-hearted approach to address the Kashmir problem, have chocked developmental activities in Jammu & Kashmir. While the Modi government’s decision has received overwhelming support in Parliament and outside, Pakistan is trying hard to project an alarming picture of Kashmir before the international community. In doing so, the Imran Khan government has downgraded diplomatic ties with India by expelling Ajay Bisaria, India’s High Commissioner to Pakistan. Islamabad has also stopped bilateral trade and the Samjhauta Express, among other unilateral steps. However, the fact remains that the international community’s reaction to the recent changes concerning Jammu & Kashmir has largely been in India’s favour. The United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, refused to intervene in the Kashmir matter, invoking the Shimla Agreement of 1972 that does not allow third-party mediation in this issue. Russia has also endorsed the Modi government’s move, saying the abrogation of Article 370 is an internal affair of India. The US has said that both India and Pakistan should maintain restraint and hold direct talks to resolve the Kashmir issue while South Asian countries, including Bangladesh and Maldives, have backed India. In a surprise development, the Taliban strongly criticised Pakistan for linking the increased tensions between Islamabad and New Delhi with the situation in Afghanistan. Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahed said, “The issue of Afghanistan is not related to Kashmir,” and urged India and Pakistan not to turn Afghanistan into the “theatre of competition between other countries.” The Taliban’s statement is very important for India: First, it shows the outfit’s desire to hold talks with New Delhi and second, the Taliban does not want to be seen as a puppet of Pakistan. This, in turn, will help India protect its interests in Afghanistan, given the fact that over the years, New Delhi has invested over $3 billion in development activities in this country. China is the only major country that has criticised India’s recent decision concerning Jammu & Kashmir. The reason for China’s criticism emerges from the fact that it enjoys a close relationship with Pakistan. Additionally, the Union territory of Ladakh also includes Aksai Chin, which is currently under China’s control. In turn, India has re-emphasised its claim over this area. New Delhi would also be in a better position to effectively deal with any Pakistani and Chinese design, especially since the CPEC passes through this region. With the Security Council refusing to interfere in the Kashmir issue, efforts towards accelerating development activities and strengthening democratic institutions should be a major priority for the government. It will ensure that the people of Kashmir do not again fall into the trap of separatist groups and other vested interests in the Valley. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Taliban’s statement on Jammu and Kashmir is very important for India

Just when India and the US had begun to address the uneasiness in bilateral ties due to high tariffs imposed by the two sides, President Donald Trump saying that Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought his help in resolving the Kashmir issue with Pakistan has increased the temperature in New Delhi.&nbsp;

Realising the impact of the false statement, US officials swung into the damage control mode, saying that Kashmir is a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan. The fact, however, remains that the damage has been done.&nbsp;

The latest statement by Trump needs to be examined in the light of his ambiguous and regressive policy towards India in recent times.&nbsp;

Sure, India has been given a preeminent position in US Indo-Pacific strategy. The Trump administration has renamed its Pacific Command as the Indo-Pacific Command, largely in recognition of India’s increasing military and economic might in the region.&nbsp;

The US has also shown interest in treating India on a par with its NATO allies, deciding to sell India an MTCT Category-1 Unmanned Aerial System, Terminal High Altitude Area Defence System (THAAD) and Patriot Missile Defence System.&nbsp;

While these initiatives point towards the Trump administration’s ardent desire to strengthen defence and security ties with India, the fact remains the offer of THAAD has been made only to prevent India from buying the S-400 missile system from Russia.&nbsp;

This and other defence offerings by the US also underscore the Trump administration’s efforts to secure a large portion of the Indian defence market. Understandably so, because India is the world’s second-largest arms buyer. &nbsp;&nbsp;

While US is keen to see India play a vital role in the Indo-Pacific region, Washington is not a bit concerned about addressing India’s security threats emanating from Pakistan-sponsored terrorism, the continued insecurity in Afghanistan and the conflict between the US and Iran, among other issues.&nbsp;

In fact, there is a sea change in the Trump administration’s South Asia policy. In 2017, Trump’s South Asia Policy mentioned that the US will deploy more troops in Afghanistan without fixing a timeline for their return. Now, the US is holding talks with Taliban terrorists to secure a respectable exit from the 18-year-long Afghan war.&nbsp;

All this is happening without Washington consulting New Delhi on the issue. This unilateral action by the US indicates that it is not interested in protecting the interests of its allies and partners.&nbsp;

This becomes further clear from Trump’s Iran policy, which has resulted in India ending all oil imports from Iran. The possibility of India facing sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) is very high because it allows the US to impose economic sanctions on countries buying Russian military weapons.&nbsp;

If these initiatives still do not give a clear picture of the direction of Trump’s policy towards India, look at the high tariffs that Washington has imposed on Indian products. While the Modi government resisted taking retaliatory measures initially, the latest move by the US finally forced India to raise the tariffs on the import of 28 US products. This, in turn, further intensified the tension between the two sides.&nbsp;

In the meantime, the massive victory of the BJP-led alliance under the leadership of Modi witnessed some positive changes in the US’ attitude.&nbsp;

Speaking at the India Ideas Summit and the 44th Annual Meeting of the US-India Business Council, secretary of state Michael Pompeo said, “Modi Hai to Mumkin Hai,” alluding to the necessity of taking concrete efforts to address each other’s concerns. Subsequently, Pompeo’s visit to India and the meeting between Modi and Trump during the G-20 in June infused fresh air into the relationship.&nbsp;

However, the recent development has once again derailed the momentum of improvement in the relationship. Now it remains to be seen how the US tries to engage with India, while attempting to chart out a new approach towards its ties with Pakistan and the Taliban terrorist group in Afghanistan.&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-trump-s-attitude-towards-india-unpredictable-unreliable-2775756">original article)</a>

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

Just when India and the US had begun to address the uneasiness in bilateral ties due to high tariffs imposed by the two sides, President Donald Trump saying that Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought his help in resolving the Kashmir issue with Pakistan has increased the temperature in New Delhi.

Just when India and the US had begun to address the uneasiness in bilateral ties due to high tariffs imposed by the two sides, President Donald Trump saying that Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought his help in resolving the Kashmir issue with Pakistan has increased the temperature in New Delhi. Realising the impact of the false statement, US officials swung into the damage control mode, saying that Kashmir is a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan. The fact, however, remains that the damage has been done. The latest statement by Trump needs to be examined in the light of his ambiguous and regressive policy towards India in recent times. Sure, India has been given a preeminent position in US Indo-Pacific strategy. The Trump administration has renamed its Pacific Command as the Indo-Pacific Command, largely in recognition of India’s increasing military and economic might in the region. The US has also shown interest in treating India on a par with its NATO allies, deciding to sell India an MTCT Category-1 Unmanned Aerial System, Terminal High Altitude Area Defence System (THAAD) and Patriot Missile Defence System. While these initiatives point towards the Trump administration’s ardent desire to strengthen defence and security ties with India, the fact remains the offer of THAAD has been made only to prevent India from buying the S-400 missile system from Russia. This and other defence offerings by the US also underscore the Trump administration’s efforts to secure a large portion of the Indian defence market. Understandably so, because India is the world’s second-largest arms buyer. While US is keen to see India play a vital role in the Indo-Pacific region, Washington is not a bit concerned about addressing India’s security threats emanating from Pakistan-sponsored terrorism, the continued insecurity in Afghanistan and the conflict between the US and Iran, among other issues. In fact, there is a sea change in the Trump administration’s South Asia policy. In 2017, Trump’s South Asia Policy mentioned that the US will deploy more troops in Afghanistan without fixing a timeline for their return. Now, the US is holding talks with Taliban terrorists to secure a respectable exit from the 18-year-long Afghan war. All this is happening without Washington consulting New Delhi on the issue. This unilateral action by the US indicates that it is not interested in protecting the interests of its allies and partners. This becomes further clear from Trump’s Iran policy, which has resulted in India ending all oil imports from Iran. The possibility of India facing sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) is very high because it allows the US to impose economic sanctions on countries buying Russian military weapons. If these initiatives still do not give a clear picture of the direction of Trump’s policy towards India, look at the high tariffs that Washington has imposed on Indian products. While the Modi government resisted taking retaliatory measures initially, the latest move by the US finally forced India to raise the tariffs on the import of 28 US products. This, in turn, further intensified the tension between the two sides. In the meantime, the massive victory of the BJP-led alliance under the leadership of Modi witnessed some positive changes in the US’ attitude. Speaking at the India Ideas Summit and the 44th Annual Meeting of the US-India Business Council, secretary of state Michael Pompeo said, “Modi Hai to Mumkin Hai,” alluding to the necessity of taking concrete efforts to address each other’s concerns. Subsequently, Pompeo’s visit to India and the meeting between Modi and Trump during the G-20 in June infused fresh air into the relationship. However, the recent development has once again derailed the momentum of improvement in the relationship. Now it remains to be seen how the US tries to engage with India, while attempting to chart out a new approach towards its ties with Pakistan and the Taliban terrorist group in Afghanistan. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Donald Trump’s attitude towards India unpredictable, unreliable

The landslide victory of the BJP-led coalition under the leadership of Narendra Modi in the 2019 parliamentary elections is indeed historic. In the next five years, Modi will have the opportunity to make a new India. In doing so, his government will surely continue to reinvent Indian foreign policy.

True, in Modi’s first term, Indian foreign policy had undergone a remarkable transformation. First, India aggressively pursued a multi-aligned policy in engagement with the word. This change saw India fostering engagement with all the global powers. While the US designated India as a defence partner, New Delhi expanded military ties with Russia, France and Japan. &nbsp;

Under the Modi government, India became a member of the Missile Technology Regime, which aims to check proliferation of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicle capable of carrying weapons of mass destruction. &nbsp;

In another major development, India succeeded in getting Masood Azhar designated as a global terrorist at the UN. India’s ties with East and Southeast Asian countries have touched a new high under Modi’s Act East Policy and its relations with its South Asian neighbours, except Pakistan, have also been on an upward trajectory.

At the same time, the BJP government has sent a clear signal to India’s neighbours and beyond that its efforts to foster friendly ties should not be seen as the sign of weakness. This is in the context of the Balakot strike in Pakistan and India’s position during the Doklam crisis with China. &nbsp;

Thus, in his first term, Modi did not just set the agenda for Indian foreign policy, but its efforts boosted the country’s image as an important player in shaping regional and global geopolitical, strategic and economic landscapes.

Consequently, as Modi begins his second term, there would be more of continuity than change in Indian foreign policy. India’s invitation to the member states of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) – Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Nepal and Bhutan for the swearing-in ceremony of Modi, clearly underscores his continued efforts to boost India’s Neighbourhood First policy. &nbsp;

BIMSTEC, which covers a vast regional geographical area, can play an important role in meeting India’s economic aspirations. At the same time, there is also an indication that the Modi government would take further efforts to isolate Pakistan at the regional and global level for providing shelter to terrorists operating against India. &nbsp;

The invitation to the President of the Kyrgyz Republic indicates India’s seriousness about strengthening ties with Central Asian countries to effectively protect its strategic, economic and energy interests. &nbsp;

Strong ties with Bishkek will also help India promote its agenda at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), since the Kyrgyz Republic heads this grouping. &nbsp;

As Mauritius has been a major source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in India, the presence of the leader from this country at the oath-taking ceremony of the Modi government will surely help deepen ties between the two countries. &nbsp;

Of course, the rise of China and its deepening engagement in the Indian Ocean and in South Asia, has posed a serious security concern in India. Though New Delhi has been looking to ‘reset’ ties with Beijing, it is highly unlikely that China, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, will end its hostile approach towards India, especially when both the Asian powers are aspiring for a similar status in the same geography. &nbsp;

Thus, fully aware of these structural and other compulsions, India has endorsed America’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy. Last month, New Delhi also established the Indo-Pacific Desk to bring more clarity to its Act East Policy, thereby playing its role in promoting a multipolar order in the region. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;

Nevertheless, China’s assertive posturing, Trump’s unpredictable behaviour and his America First Policy, the impact of the Iran sanctions on India’s energy requirement and Pakistan-sponsored terrorism are some major issues facing the Modi government in his second term. &nbsp;

Last but not least, this time India’s induction as a permanent member of the UN Security Council could be a top foreign policy priority of the Modi government.

 
(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-modi-s-second-term-spells-foreign-policy-continuity-2756865">original article)</a>

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

The landslide victory of the BJP-led coalition under the leadership of Narendra Modi in the 2019 parliamentary elections is indeed historic. In the next five years, Modi will have the opportunity to make a new India.

The landslide victory of the BJP-led coalition under the leadership of Narendra Modi in the 2019 parliamentary elections is indeed historic. In the next five years, Modi will have the opportunity to make a new India. In doing so, his government will surely continue to reinvent Indian foreign policy. True, in Modi’s first term, Indian foreign policy had undergone a remarkable transformation. First, India aggressively pursued a multi-aligned policy in engagement with the word. This change saw India fostering engagement with all the global powers. While the US designated India as a defence partner, New Delhi expanded military ties with Russia, France and Japan. Under the Modi government, India became a member of the Missile Technology Regime, which aims to check proliferation of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicle capable of carrying weapons of mass destruction. In another major development, India succeeded in getting Masood Azhar designated as a global terrorist at the UN. India’s ties with East and Southeast Asian countries have touched a new high under Modi’s Act East Policy and its relations with its South Asian neighbours, except Pakistan, have also been on an upward trajectory. At the same time, the BJP government has sent a clear signal to India’s neighbours and beyond that its efforts to foster friendly ties should not be seen as the sign of weakness. This is in the context of the Balakot strike in Pakistan and India’s position during the Doklam crisis with China. Thus, in his first term, Modi did not just set the agenda for Indian foreign policy, but its efforts boosted the country’s image as an important player in shaping regional and global geopolitical, strategic and economic landscapes. Consequently, as Modi begins his second term, there would be more of continuity than change in Indian foreign policy. India’s invitation to the member states of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) – Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Nepal and Bhutan for the swearing-in ceremony of Modi, clearly underscores his continued efforts to boost India’s Neighbourhood First policy. BIMSTEC, which covers a vast regional geographical area, can play an important role in meeting India’s economic aspirations. At the same time, there is also an indication that the Modi government would take further efforts to isolate Pakistan at the regional and global level for providing shelter to terrorists operating against India. The invitation to the President of the Kyrgyz Republic indicates India’s seriousness about strengthening ties with Central Asian countries to effectively protect its strategic, economic and energy interests. Strong ties with Bishkek will also help India promote its agenda at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), since the Kyrgyz Republic heads this grouping. As Mauritius has been a major source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in India, the presence of the leader from this country at the oath-taking ceremony of the Modi government will surely help deepen ties between the two countries. Of course, the rise of China and its deepening engagement in the Indian Ocean and in South Asia, has posed a serious security concern in India. Though New Delhi has been looking to ‘reset’ ties with Beijing, it is highly unlikely that China, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, will end its hostile approach towards India, especially when both the Asian powers are aspiring for a similar status in the same geography. Thus, fully aware of these structural and other compulsions, India has endorsed America’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy. Last month, New Delhi also established the Indo-Pacific Desk to bring more clarity to its Act East Policy, thereby playing its role in promoting a multipolar order in the region. Nevertheless, China’s assertive posturing, Trump’s unpredictable behaviour and his America First Policy, the impact of the Iran sanctions on India’s energy requirement and Pakistan-sponsored terrorism are some major issues facing the Modi government in his second term. Last but not least, this time India’s induction as a permanent member of the UN Security Council could be a top foreign policy priority of the Modi government. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Narendra Modi’s second term spells foreign policy continuity

China held the second conference on the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) in Beijing on April 25-26, 2019, wherein 40 heads of states, delegates from 150 countries and 90 international organisations from different parts of the world participated.

These included the likes of Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Ueli Maurer of Switzerland, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad, UN General Secretary Antonio Guterres, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, Nepali President Bindiya Bhandari and state Counselor Aung San Su-Kyi of Myanmar.

With the presence of about 5,000 delegates, the second Belt Road Forum provided an opportunity for China to take stock of the BRI and plan the next course of action for the success of this global project.

Ever since the One Belt One Road (OBOR) Initiative (now known as the BRI) was launched in 2013, it has become the most ambitious project of the Chinese government to reshape the regional and global order.&nbsp;

While the BRI is generally viewed in terms of a plan to build infrastructure projects, its other elements include strengthening regional political cooperation, unimpeded trade, financial integration and people-to-people exchanges.&nbsp;

The BRI, covering 76 countries from Asia, Africa, and Europe, accounts for half the world’s population and a quarter of global GDP.&nbsp;

In fact, the Xi Jinping government has focussed on mobilising the country’s political, diplomatic, intellectual, economic, and financial resources to establish China as the unquestionable regional and global power.&nbsp;

While the BRI is expected to cost more than $11 trillion, President Xi Jinping has said that the total trade volume between China and Belt and Road participating countries exceeded $6 trillion from 2013 to 2018, while China has so far chalked up $80 billion in direct foreign investment in these countries. Xi also announced that projects worth $64 billion and 283 deliverables were signed at the forum.&nbsp;

But, it is equally true that apprehensions about the BRI as trap diplomacy by China have also increased, symbolised by cases of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the Hambantota Port and others.&nbsp;

In fact, Malaysia had put on hold the Chinese rail project until the original cost was cut by 30 per cent. &nbsp;

Realising this negative image, President Xi focussed on engaging with other countries, saying that the “Belt and Road Initiative is not only for China, but open to other nations’ participation.”&nbsp;

India, a major emerging economic and military power in Asia, has refused to join BRI on the ground that the CPEC violates its sovereignty because it passes through the part of the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir that belongs to India.&nbsp;

Unlike in the past, this time, the US also did not send its representative for this summit. In fact, New Delhi and Washington have a shared understanding of the possible strategic and security threats emerging from the BRI.&nbsp;

New Delhi and Washington have taken several measures to effectively challenge Xi Jinping’s pet project. In doing so, while India has focused on enhancing its engagement with Southeast Asian countries under the Act East Policy, it also sees a point in Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy to maintain and promote peace and security in the region.&nbsp;

US secretary of state Mike Pompeo has announced that “Indo-Pacific Economic Vision” will increase the financial support that the US government provides to countries in the region through a proposed agency, the US International Development Finance Corporation (USIDFC).&nbsp;

The rival Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the US, Japan, Australia and India last year is also attributed to the intention of these countries to check China’s rise.&nbsp;

At the same time, India is focused on working with Japan in developing an Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC), which will help create a “free and open Indo-Pacific region” by rediscovering ancient sea-routes and creating new sea corridors that will link the African continent with India and countries in South-Asia and South-East Asia.&nbsp;

It has to be seen whether the BRI 2.0 really promotes multilateralism in Asia and beyond or it further amplifies the concerns about China’s perceived efforts to dominate the regional global power structure.&nbsp; 
 
&nbsp;(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-india-keeps-off-bri-has-us-and-japan-in-the-loop-2751354">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

China held the second conference on the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) in Beijing on April 25-26, 2019, wherein 40 heads of states, delegates from 150 countries and 90 international organisations from different parts of the world participated.

China held the second conference on the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) in Beijing on April 25-26, 2019, wherein 40 heads of states, delegates from 150 countries and 90 international organisations from different parts of the world participated. These included the likes of Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Ueli Maurer of Switzerland, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad, UN General Secretary Antonio Guterres, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, Nepali President Bindiya Bhandari and state Counselor Aung San Su-Kyi of Myanmar. With the presence of about 5,000 delegates, the second Belt Road Forum provided an opportunity for China to take stock of the BRI and plan the next course of action for the success of this global project. Ever since the One Belt One Road (OBOR) Initiative (now known as the BRI) was launched in 2013, it has become the most ambitious project of the Chinese government to reshape the regional and global order. While the BRI is generally viewed in terms of a plan to build infrastructure projects, its other elements include strengthening regional political cooperation, unimpeded trade, financial integration and people-to-people exchanges. The BRI, covering 76 countries from Asia, Africa, and Europe, accounts for half the world’s population and a quarter of global GDP. In fact, the Xi Jinping government has focussed on mobilising the country’s political, diplomatic, intellectual, economic, and financial resources to establish China as the unquestionable regional and global power. While the BRI is expected to cost more than $11 trillion, President Xi Jinping has said that the total trade volume between China and Belt and Road participating countries exceeded $6 trillion from 2013 to 2018, while China has so far chalked up $80 billion in direct foreign investment in these countries. Xi also announced that projects worth $64 billion and 283 deliverables were signed at the forum. But, it is equally true that apprehensions about the BRI as trap diplomacy by China have also increased, symbolised by cases of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the Hambantota Port and others. In fact, Malaysia had put on hold the Chinese rail project until the original cost was cut by 30 per cent. Realising this negative image, President Xi focussed on engaging with other countries, saying that the “Belt and Road Initiative is not only for China, but open to other nations’ participation.” India, a major emerging economic and military power in Asia, has refused to join BRI on the ground that the CPEC violates its sovereignty because it passes through the part of the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir that belongs to India. Unlike in the past, this time, the US also did not send its representative for this summit. In fact, New Delhi and Washington have a shared understanding of the possible strategic and security threats emerging from the BRI. New Delhi and Washington have taken several measures to effectively challenge Xi Jinping’s pet project. In doing so, while India has focused on enhancing its engagement with Southeast Asian countries under the Act East Policy, it also sees a point in Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy to maintain and promote peace and security in the region. US secretary of state Mike Pompeo has announced that “Indo-Pacific Economic Vision” will increase the financial support that the US government provides to countries in the region through a proposed agency, the US International Development Finance Corporation (USIDFC). The rival Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the US, Japan, Australia and India last year is also attributed to the intention of these countries to check China’s rise. At the same time, India is focused on working with Japan in developing an Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC), which will help create a “free and open Indo-Pacific region” by rediscovering ancient sea-routes and creating new sea corridors that will link the African continent with India and countries in South-Asia and South-East Asia. It has to be seen whether the BRI 2.0 really promotes multilateralism in Asia and beyond or it further amplifies the concerns about China’s perceived efforts to dominate the regional global power structure. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

India keeps off BRI, has US and Japan in the loop

At a time when US-North Korea relations have hit the lowest ebb, the first-ever summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Un, in the Pacific port city of Vladivostok on April 25, assumed huge significance in shaping the regional political-security environment.&nbsp;

While actual details of the summit are not available, President Putin said that North Korea needs international security guarantees, if it is to end its nuclear programme.

Such guarantees, he said, would need to be offered within a multinational framework.&nbsp;

True, the erstwhile Soviet Union and North Korea had warm bilateral ties and President Putin has been trying to boost Russia’s engagement with North Korea in recent times.&nbsp;

It was in this context that Russia decided to write off a major part of the debt that North Korea had taken from the Soviet Union.&nbsp;

Russia was also a member of the Six-Party Talks to pursue North Korea to dismantle its nuclear programme. But, North Korea’s decision to launch a long-range rocket in April 2009 and later its withdrawal from the Six-Party Talks, put ties with Russia on the sidelines. 
 
The engagement between Moscow and Pyongyang continued to flag, as Kim, following the Trump administration’s aggressive policy towards North Korea, decided to hold direct talks with the US to resolve the nuclear issue.&nbsp;

Trump too accepted Kim’s invitation for talks. In fact, this changed equation was quite disturbing for Russia because the success of Trump-Kim talks could have halted Russia’s ambition of playing an effective in resolving the crisis in the Korean Peninsula.&nbsp;

The Trump administration has already imposed a sanction over two Russian shipping companies for transferring petroleum products to North Korea in violation of UN Security Council resolutions.&nbsp;

Meanwhile, efforts to resolve the nuclear issue between the US and North Korea through direct talks did not succeed with President Trump refusing to accept North Korea’s demand for complete removal of economic sanctions for its denuclearisation programme.&nbsp;

Consequently, while reports suggested that President Putin wanted to hold a meeting with Kim, the collapse of talks between the US and North Korea, finally led to the summit between Putin and Kim, as North Korea intensified its effort to garner the support of other countries to its approach of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.&nbsp;

The meeting proved to be highly encouraging for Kim because Russia fully backed North Korea vis-à-vis the US and Moscow reiterated that the Six-Party Talks is the best way to resolve the Korean crisis.&nbsp;

Russia wants to build a gas pipeline with North Korea to reduce its revenue losses. It also wants to ensure access to North Korea’s mineral resources.&nbsp;

For Kim, Russia can help improve North Korea’s basic infrastructure, including the railways, electricity and modernise its industry.&nbsp;

Improved ties with Russia is also important for North Korea to ensure that the Putin government does not send back its labourers working in Russia, since they are a major source of income for North Korea.

The Putin-Kim first ever meeting underscores their shared concerns about Trump’s unpredictable behaviour. There are apprehensions about President Trump aiming to change the political regime in North Korea.&nbsp;

At the same time, Putin has tried to send a signal about Russia’s influence over North Korea, which could be crucial in addressing the nuclear issue.&nbsp;

The summit between Putin and Kim has also boosted Russia’s stature in China, Japan and South Korea. In fact, it is now possible that South Korea could promote engagement with Russia to address several issues, including the conflict with North Korea.&nbsp;

While the doors of negations between the US and North Korea is now closed, Kim’s continued efforts to advance its nuclear programme, along with a new bonhomie between Russia and North Korea, has added a new dimension in the Korean issue.&nbsp;

It needs be seen how the Korean peninsula is denuclearised, promoting peace, security and development in the region and beyond

 
(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-putin-kim-summit-could-change-equations-promote-new-axis-2744732">original article)</a> 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp;

At a time when US-North Korea relations have hit the lowest ebb, the first-ever summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Un, in the Pacific port city of Vladivostok on April 25, assumed huge significance in shaping the regional political-security environment.

At a time when US-North Korea relations have hit the lowest ebb, the first-ever summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Un, in the Pacific port city of Vladivostok on April 25, assumed huge significance in shaping the regional political-security environment. While actual details of the summit are not available, President Putin said that North Korea needs international security guarantees, if it is to end its nuclear programme. Such guarantees, he said, would need to be offered within a multinational framework. True, the erstwhile Soviet Union and North Korea had warm bilateral ties and President Putin has been trying to boost Russia’s engagement with North Korea in recent times. It was in this context that Russia decided to write off a major part of the debt that North Korea had taken from the Soviet Union. Russia was also a member of the Six-Party Talks to pursue North Korea to dismantle its nuclear programme. But, North Korea’s decision to launch a long-range rocket in April 2009 and later its withdrawal from the Six-Party Talks, put ties with Russia on the sidelines. The engagement between Moscow and Pyongyang continued to flag, as Kim, following the Trump administration’s aggressive policy towards North Korea, decided to hold direct talks with the US to resolve the nuclear issue. Trump too accepted Kim’s invitation for talks. In fact, this changed equation was quite disturbing for Russia because the success of Trump-Kim talks could have halted Russia’s ambition of playing an effective in resolving the crisis in the Korean Peninsula. The Trump administration has already imposed a sanction over two Russian shipping companies for transferring petroleum products to North Korea in violation of UN Security Council resolutions. Meanwhile, efforts to resolve the nuclear issue between the US and North Korea through direct talks did not succeed with President Trump refusing to accept North Korea’s demand for complete removal of economic sanctions for its denuclearisation programme. Consequently, while reports suggested that President Putin wanted to hold a meeting with Kim, the collapse of talks between the US and North Korea, finally led to the summit between Putin and Kim, as North Korea intensified its effort to garner the support of other countries to its approach of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. The meeting proved to be highly encouraging for Kim because Russia fully backed North Korea vis-à-vis the US and Moscow reiterated that the Six-Party Talks is the best way to resolve the Korean crisis. Russia wants to build a gas pipeline with North Korea to reduce its revenue losses. It also wants to ensure access to North Korea’s mineral resources. For Kim, Russia can help improve North Korea’s basic infrastructure, including the railways, electricity and modernise its industry. Improved ties with Russia is also important for North Korea to ensure that the Putin government does not send back its labourers working in Russia, since they are a major source of income for North Korea. The Putin-Kim first ever meeting underscores their shared concerns about Trump’s unpredictable behaviour. There are apprehensions about President Trump aiming to change the political regime in North Korea. At the same time, Putin has tried to send a signal about Russia’s influence over North Korea, which could be crucial in addressing the nuclear issue. The summit between Putin and Kim has also boosted Russia’s stature in China, Japan and South Korea. In fact, it is now possible that South Korea could promote engagement with Russia to address several issues, including the conflict with North Korea. While the doors of negations between the US and North Korea is now closed, Kim’s continued efforts to advance its nuclear programme, along with a new bonhomie between Russia and North Korea, has added a new dimension in the Korean issue. It needs be seen how the Korean peninsula is denuclearised, promoting peace, security and development in the region and beyond (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Putin-Kim summit could change equations, promote new axis

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is all sent to form the next government in the Knesset — the Israeli Parliament, with the Right-wing coalition led by the Likud party having won 65 out of a total of 120 seats.

In turn, Netanyahu would not only become the longest-serving Prime Minister in Israel, but the election result has also underscored Israeli people’s approval of his domestic and foreign policy, despite him facing corruption charges.

In fact, since Netanyahu assumed the charge of Prime Minister in 2009, Israel’s gross domestic product has increased by 70 per cent. At the same time, the Netanyahu government has also initiated efforts to reinvent ties with the rest of the world. In particular, Israel has succeeded in getting the US to shift its embassy to Jerusalem and recognise Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights among other things.

Improved ties between India and Israel have also been a major foreign policy priority of the Netanyahu government. In the last five years, he and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have made calibrated efforts to strengthen this relationship. This can be appreciated from the fact that during this period, several high profile political visits between the two countries have taken place.

While the then President Pranab Mukherjee became the first Indian President to visit Israel in 2015, Prime Minister Netanyahu, after meeting Modi at the UN, said that “sky is the limit” as far as India-Israel relations are concerned.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi finally visited Israel in July 2017, marking the end of India’s policy to look at ties with Israel through the prism of Arab-Israeli conflict.

Subsequently, Prime Minister Netanyahu paid a return visit to India in January 2018, with the two sides having reviewed their bilateral ties and discussed the means through which the relationship could be further strengthened.

Of course, the ardent desire of Modi and Netanyahu to elevate the engagement has not evolved in a vacuum. There are a number of motivations for the Modi government to seek close diplomatic ties with Israel.

First, India sees Israel play a crucial role in its endeavour to modernise its military and replace aged Russian defence hardware, given its expertise in the field of defence manufacturing.

Second, New Delhi now strongly feels that Tel Aviv’s active participation through the ‘Make in India’ programme will certainly help in boosting India’s economic growth and provide jobs to millions of people in the country.

True to expectations, Netanyahu has shown an interest in cooperating with the Modi government in its economic and developmental initiatives.

Thirdly, the China factor. Over the last several years, Israel is said to be China’s major defence supplier. This, in turn, has increased India’s security concerns, especially in view of Beijing long-time claims on some parts of Indian territory. There is also an apprehension in Indian strategic circles that Israeli military hardware and weapons sold to China could find their way to Pakistan, given the close nexus between Islamabad and Beijing.

Fourth, recent Russian overtures of forging defence cooperation with Pakistan has emerged as a security concern.

Fifth, political and security turmoil in the Middle East have helped India in expanding ties with Israel without attracting much criticism from the Arab States.

Lastly, despite India’s pro-Arab tilt in its Middle East policy, they have never made any effort to address India’s concerns on Kashmir. Instead, in the past, these countries have used the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) as a tool to support Pakistan on Kashmir.

For its part, Israel can look forward to defence ties with this country in view of the fact that New Delhi is supposed to spend $150 billion to modernise its military by 2027. It also needs India’s support on the Palestine issue.

Deepening ties with Tel Aviv does not mean that the Modi government is unaware of the importance of the Arab States or there is a shift in India’s stand on Palestine. The presence of Sushma Swaraj at the OIC was a clear reflection of the balanced policy that the Modi government has pursued towards the Arab world and Israel. 
 
&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-how-netanyahu-s-re-election-impacts-india-israel-relations-2740659">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.) 
&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is all sent to form the next government in the Knesset — the Israeli Parliament, with the Right-wing coalition led by the Likud party having won 65 out of a total of 120 seats.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is all sent to form the next government in the Knesset — the Israeli Parliament, with the Right-wing coalition led by the Likud party having won 65 out of a total of 120 seats. In turn, Netanyahu would not only become the longest-serving Prime Minister in Israel, but the election result has also underscored Israeli people’s approval of his domestic and foreign policy, despite him facing corruption charges. In fact, since Netanyahu assumed the charge of Prime Minister in 2009, Israel’s gross domestic product has increased by 70 per cent. At the same time, the Netanyahu government has also initiated efforts to reinvent ties with the rest of the world. In particular, Israel has succeeded in getting the US to shift its embassy to Jerusalem and recognise Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights among other things. Improved ties between India and Israel have also been a major foreign policy priority of the Netanyahu government. In the last five years, he and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have made calibrated efforts to strengthen this relationship. This can be appreciated from the fact that during this period, several high profile political visits between the two countries have taken place. While the then President Pranab Mukherjee became the first Indian President to visit Israel in 2015, Prime Minister Netanyahu, after meeting Modi at the UN, said that “sky is the limit” as far as India-Israel relations are concerned. Prime Minister Narendra Modi finally visited Israel in July 2017, marking the end of India’s policy to look at ties with Israel through the prism of Arab-Israeli conflict. Subsequently, Prime Minister Netanyahu paid a return visit to India in January 2018, with the two sides having reviewed their bilateral ties and discussed the means through which the relationship could be further strengthened. Of course, the ardent desire of Modi and Netanyahu to elevate the engagement has not evolved in a vacuum. There are a number of motivations for the Modi government to seek close diplomatic ties with Israel. First, India sees Israel play a crucial role in its endeavour to modernise its military and replace aged Russian defence hardware, given its expertise in the field of defence manufacturing. Second, New Delhi now strongly feels that Tel Aviv’s active participation through the ‘Make in India’ programme will certainly help in boosting India’s economic growth and provide jobs to millions of people in the country. True to expectations, Netanyahu has shown an interest in cooperating with the Modi government in its economic and developmental initiatives. Thirdly, the China factor. Over the last several years, Israel is said to be China’s major defence supplier. This, in turn, has increased India’s security concerns, especially in view of Beijing long-time claims on some parts of Indian territory. There is also an apprehension in Indian strategic circles that Israeli military hardware and weapons sold to China could find their way to Pakistan, given the close nexus between Islamabad and Beijing. Fourth, recent Russian overtures of forging defence cooperation with Pakistan has emerged as a security concern. Fifth, political and security turmoil in the Middle East have helped India in expanding ties with Israel without attracting much criticism from the Arab States. Lastly, despite India’s pro-Arab tilt in its Middle East policy, they have never made any effort to address India’s concerns on Kashmir. Instead, in the past, these countries have used the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) as a tool to support Pakistan on Kashmir. For its part, Israel can look forward to defence ties with this country in view of the fact that New Delhi is supposed to spend $150 billion to modernise its military by 2027. It also needs India’s support on the Palestine issue. Deepening ties with Tel Aviv does not mean that the Modi government is unaware of the importance of the Arab States or there is a shift in India’s stand on Palestine. The presence of Sushma Swaraj at the OIC was a clear reflection of the balanced policy that the Modi government has pursued towards the Arab world and Israel. (This article was originally published on DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

How Netanyahu’s re-election impacts India-Israel relations

At a time when BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has completed its five-year term, it is time to evaluate the government’s performance in the last five years.&nbsp;

Foreign policy has been one of the most talked about aspects of Modi’s tenure. There is no denying the fact that this government has appeared determined to go beyond established foreign policy norms. &nbsp;

The first sign of this was the Modi government’s announcement of its “Neighbourhood First” policy. So, while the Prime Minister visited all other South Asian countries, India settled its long-standing border problem with Bangladesh and ties with Sri Lanka and Nepal marked an encouraging upward trajectory.&nbsp;

The relationship between Bhutan and Afghanistan also touched new heights.&nbsp;

Though India faced a tough time in dealing with Maldives during the tenure of President Mohammed Waheed Hassan, Modi’s calibrated efforts have helped New Delhi in reconnecting historical ties with Male after the coming of the President Ibrahim Solih last year.&nbsp;

As about Pakistan, the Modi government initially adopted the conventional method of fostering working ties. Thus, he invited Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for his government’s swearing-in ceremony in New Delhi in 2014, and later dropped by Lahore for Sharif’s birthday.&nbsp;

Pakistan, however, reciprocated with terrorist attacks against India. But unlike in the past, India under Modi showed the determination to hit back Pakistan proportionately.&nbsp;

It was in this context text that India carried out surgical strikes inside Pakistan territory along the border after the Uri terrorist attack. Later, the IAF went deep inside Pakistan hitting a LeT training ground at Balakot in response to the deadly Pulwama attack.&nbsp;

Terming its air strikes as “non-military pre-emptive” action, the Indian government succeeded in garnering global support. Even China could not openly support Pakistan against India’s action.&nbsp;

India’s successive military and air strikes have called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff. They have shifted India’s Pakistan policy in two ways: first, New Delhi can in future exercise similar options against Pakistan if Islamabad fails to reign-in terrorist organisations operating from its soil against India.&nbsp;

Second, the world community increasingly shares India’s concerns about Pakistan having emerged as the epicentre of terrorism. This is why efforts led by the US have been intensified to designate Hafiz Saeed as a global terrorist.&nbsp;

At a time when ASEAN countries want India to play an active role in the region, the Modi government has brought about a new energy in India’s orientation towards Southeast Asian countries.&nbsp;

India’s Middle East policy under Modi has also undergone a defining shift, with New Delhi finally removing the veil over its ties with Israel. Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit that country.&nbsp;

At the same time, he has left no stone unturned in strengthening ties with the other countries of the region. The success of Modi’s Middle East policy can be gauged from the fact that India was invited to address the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). &nbsp;

The Modi government has been successful in dealing with all the major powers –the US, Russia, China, France, Japan and others.&nbsp;

Displaying astute pragmatism, the Prime Minister has shown his determination to elevate ties with the US by signing several important agreements, including the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and the Communications, Compatibility, Security Agreement (COMCASA). This has helped in removing long-standing obstacles in realising the potential of defence ties with the US.&nbsp;

Signing the S-400 missile agreement with Russia simultaneously, underscored the Modi government’s effort to maintain India’s strategic autonomy vis-a-vis the US and to effectively checkmate Islamabad’s desire to foster defence ties with Moscow.&nbsp;

With regard to China, while the Modi government continued to promote friendly ties, its strong response to Beijing on the Doklam issue showed India’s readiness to rise to the occasion, when needed. &nbsp; India under Modi has come out of its timid approach to assert its rightful place in international politics.

 
(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-modi-years-represent-a-paradigm-shift-in-foreign-policy-2736395">original article)</a>

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

At a time when BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has completed its five-year term, it is time to evaluate the government’s performance in the last five years.

At a time when BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has completed its five-year term, it is time to evaluate the government’s performance in the last five years. Foreign policy has been one of the most talked about aspects of Modi’s tenure. There is no denying the fact that this government has appeared determined to go beyond established foreign policy norms. The first sign of this was the Modi government’s announcement of its “Neighbourhood First” policy. So, while the Prime Minister visited all other South Asian countries, India settled its long-standing border problem with Bangladesh and ties with Sri Lanka and Nepal marked an encouraging upward trajectory. The relationship between Bhutan and Afghanistan also touched new heights. Though India faced a tough time in dealing with Maldives during the tenure of President Mohammed Waheed Hassan, Modi’s calibrated efforts have helped New Delhi in reconnecting historical ties with Male after the coming of the President Ibrahim Solih last year. As about Pakistan, the Modi government initially adopted the conventional method of fostering working ties. Thus, he invited Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for his government’s swearing-in ceremony in New Delhi in 2014, and later dropped by Lahore for Sharif’s birthday. Pakistan, however, reciprocated with terrorist attacks against India. But unlike in the past, India under Modi showed the determination to hit back Pakistan proportionately. It was in this context text that India carried out surgical strikes inside Pakistan territory along the border after the Uri terrorist attack. Later, the IAF went deep inside Pakistan hitting a LeT training ground at Balakot in response to the deadly Pulwama attack. Terming its air strikes as “non-military pre-emptive” action, the Indian government succeeded in garnering global support. Even China could not openly support Pakistan against India’s action. India’s successive military and air strikes have called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff. They have shifted India’s Pakistan policy in two ways: first, New Delhi can in future exercise similar options against Pakistan if Islamabad fails to reign-in terrorist organisations operating from its soil against India. Second, the world community increasingly shares India’s concerns about Pakistan having emerged as the epicentre of terrorism. This is why efforts led by the US have been intensified to designate Hafiz Saeed as a global terrorist. At a time when ASEAN countries want India to play an active role in the region, the Modi government has brought about a new energy in India’s orientation towards Southeast Asian countries. India’s Middle East policy under Modi has also undergone a defining shift, with New Delhi finally removing the veil over its ties with Israel. Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit that country. At the same time, he has left no stone unturned in strengthening ties with the other countries of the region. The success of Modi’s Middle East policy can be gauged from the fact that India was invited to address the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). The Modi government has been successful in dealing with all the major powers –the US, Russia, China, France, Japan and others. Displaying astute pragmatism, the Prime Minister has shown his determination to elevate ties with the US by signing several important agreements, including the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and the Communications, Compatibility, Security Agreement (COMCASA). This has helped in removing long-standing obstacles in realising the potential of defence ties with the US. Signing the S-400 missile agreement with Russia simultaneously, underscored the Modi government’s effort to maintain India’s strategic autonomy vis-a-vis the US and to effectively checkmate Islamabad’s desire to foster defence ties with Moscow. With regard to China, while the Modi government continued to promote friendly ties, its strong response to Beijing on the Doklam issue showed India’s readiness to rise to the occasion, when needed. India under Modi has come out of its timid approach to assert its rightful place in international politics. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Narendra Modi government has been successful in dealing with major world powers

India and Maldives have finally reset their relationship with the visit of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj to the country on March 18. It was the first time since the two sides held the full-fledged bilateral meeting in Malé since the new government came to power in Maldives after the September election. Swaraj and her counterpart Abdulla Shahid took stock of the bilateral engagement covering all areas of common interests and expressed their earnest desire to consolidate and expand ties.

In a normal course, the visit of Swaraj could have been treated as a regular diplomatic affair. But in the light of the tension between Malé and New Delhi when President Abdulla Yameen declared a state of emergency in the country in February 2018, Swaraj’s trip assumes significance. While President Mohammed Waheed Hassan had cancelled the contract signed with GMR, an Indian company in 2012, Yameen showed interest in strengthening ties with China. This can be gauged from the fact that Yameen endorsed China’s Maritime Silk Road. The two countries also signed the Free Trade Agreement in December 2017. A new law was passed by Maldives, allowing absolute foreign ownership of land on the conditions that interested parties would make a minimum investment of $1 billion dollar and reclaim 70 per cent land from the sea, which aimed at benefiting China in expanding its foothold in the Indian Ocean. Around the same time, in August 2018, Yameen also asked India to withdraw its military helicopters and personnel posted in Maldives.

Thus, when a democratically elected government led by President Ibrahim Solih assumed power in September last year, it was a great relief for India. PM Narendra Modi attended the swearing-in ceremony of President Solih. In December that year, President Ibrahim Solih paid a state visit to India, with the two sides reiterating their strong commitment to further strengthen and reinvigorate the traditionally strong and friendly relations between India and the Maldives. The visit of Swaraj was the latest development in redefining the engagement between the two sides.

Of course, given then President Yameen’s pro-China policy, it was felt in India that China, with its strategically Pakistan, could use the Maldives as a strategic choke point for India. The threat from Pakistan-backed fundamentalists is no less serious. Wahabi Islam has made rapid inroads into Maldives and the growth of terror modules in that country has raised concerns in the Indian strategic community. It is in this context that Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid reaffirming his government’s “India-First Policy and commitment to working together closely with India” is a big diplomatic relief for India.

Maldives has emerged as one of the most important neighbours of India in geo-strategic and economic terms. It is situated mid-way between Strait of Malacca and Suez, which are the world’s busiest trade routes. At the same time, as Kerala and Lakshadweep are in close proximity to the Maldivian islands, India is cautious about the possible use of Maldives’s territory against it. The two sides have agreed to strengthen cooperation to enhance maritime security in the Indian Ocean Region through coordinated patrolling and aerial surveillance, exchange of information and capacity building.

But, given the fact that Maldives is a dept-redden country with $3 billion loans to repay, Malé needs major investment boost by India. Mindful of this reality, while PM Modi had announced financial assistance up to $1.4 billion in the form of budgetary support, currency swap and concessional lines of credit to fulfil the socio-economic development programmes of the Maldives, during Swaraj’s visit the Export-Import Bank of India decided to extend $800 million credit to Maldives to finance developmental projects. They have agreed on the need to boost private sector involvement, and the Maldives-India Business Forum will be held in 2019. Memorandum of Understanding regarding Indian Grant Assistance for Implementation of High Impact Community Development Projects through Local Bodies and memorandum of understanding (MOUs) on collaboration in the field of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy were signed to strengthen developmental projects in Maldives.

Undoubtedly, there is a marked positive shift in the relationship between India and Maldives in the last four months and it should be hoped that while the roots of democracy will be deepened in Maldives, Malé would not allow any third country to determine the fate of its historically cherished ties with India. 
 
(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-india-maldives-ties-revived-after-a-spell-of-uncertainty-2733957">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

India and Maldives have finally reset their relationship with the visit of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj to the country on March 18. It was the first time since the two sides held the full-fledged bilateral meeting in Malé since the new government came to power in Maldives after the September election.

India and Maldives have finally reset their relationship with the visit of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj to the country on March 18. It was the first time since the two sides held the full-fledged bilateral meeting in Malé since the new government came to power in Maldives after the September election. Swaraj and her counterpart Abdulla Shahid took stock of the bilateral engagement covering all areas of common interests and expressed their earnest desire to consolidate and expand ties. In a normal course, the visit of Swaraj could have been treated as a regular diplomatic affair. But in the light of the tension between Malé and New Delhi when President Abdulla Yameen declared a state of emergency in the country in February 2018, Swaraj’s trip assumes significance. While President Mohammed Waheed Hassan had cancelled the contract signed with GMR, an Indian company in 2012, Yameen showed interest in strengthening ties with China. This can be gauged from the fact that Yameen endorsed China’s Maritime Silk Road. The two countries also signed the Free Trade Agreement in December 2017. A new law was passed by Maldives, allowing absolute foreign ownership of land on the conditions that interested parties would make a minimum investment of $1 billion dollar and reclaim 70 per cent land from the sea, which aimed at benefiting China in expanding its foothold in the Indian Ocean. Around the same time, in August 2018, Yameen also asked India to withdraw its military helicopters and personnel posted in Maldives. Thus, when a democratically elected government led by President Ibrahim Solih assumed power in September last year, it was a great relief for India. PM Narendra Modi attended the swearing-in ceremony of President Solih. In December that year, President Ibrahim Solih paid a state visit to India, with the two sides reiterating their strong commitment to further strengthen and reinvigorate the traditionally strong and friendly relations between India and the Maldives. The visit of Swaraj was the latest development in redefining the engagement between the two sides. Of course, given then President Yameen’s pro-China policy, it was felt in India that China, with its strategically Pakistan, could use the Maldives as a strategic choke point for India. The threat from Pakistan-backed fundamentalists is no less serious. Wahabi Islam has made rapid inroads into Maldives and the growth of terror modules in that country has raised concerns in the Indian strategic community. It is in this context that Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid reaffirming his government’s “India-First Policy and commitment to working together closely with India” is a big diplomatic relief for India. Maldives has emerged as one of the most important neighbours of India in geo-strategic and economic terms. It is situated mid-way between Strait of Malacca and Suez, which are the world’s busiest trade routes. At the same time, as Kerala and Lakshadweep are in close proximity to the Maldivian islands, India is cautious about the possible use of Maldives’s territory against it. The two sides have agreed to strengthen cooperation to enhance maritime security in the Indian Ocean Region through coordinated patrolling and aerial surveillance, exchange of information and capacity building. But, given the fact that Maldives is a dept-redden country with $3 billion loans to repay, Malé needs major investment boost by India. Mindful of this reality, while PM Modi had announced financial assistance up to $1.4 billion in the form of budgetary support, currency swap and concessional lines of credit to fulfil the socio-economic development programmes of the Maldives, during Swaraj’s visit the Export-Import Bank of India decided to extend $800 million credit to Maldives to finance developmental projects. They have agreed on the need to boost private sector involvement, and the Maldives-India Business Forum will be held in 2019. Memorandum of Understanding regarding Indian Grant Assistance for Implementation of High Impact Community Development Projects through Local Bodies and memorandum of understanding (MOUs) on collaboration in the field of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy were signed to strengthen developmental projects in Maldives. Undoubtedly, there is a marked positive shift in the relationship between India and Maldives in the last four months and it should be hoped that while the roots of democracy will be deepened in Maldives, Malé would not allow any third country to determine the fate of its historically cherished ties with India. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

India-Maldives ties revived after a spell of uncertainty

At a time when US president Donald Trump is holding peace talks with the Taliban terrorists and has decided to withdraw 7,000 troops in the next few months, at least 40 CRPF personnel were killed in one of the deadliest terrorist attacks carried out by the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) in Pulwama. &nbsp;

While Indian security forces have killed the three main terrorists behind the Pulwama attack and the Indian government is weighing all possible options to dismantle terror outfits operating against India from across the border, this attack has once again reinforced the fact that the language of peace cannot be an effective tool to deal with terrorists. &nbsp; &nbsp;

In fact, ever since the Trump administration started peace talks with the Taliban, there were apprehensions in India, the US and elsewhere that such efforts would only embolden the Taliban. 
 
Sure, it was during the Obama administration that the US decided to hold talks with the Taliban and during the 2016 presidential election campaign, Trump too promised to end the war in Afghanistan.

Interestingly, the Trump Administration’s South Asia Policy released in 2017 underscored the need for US troops to stay on in Afghanistan. In fact, on the issue of promoting peace, security, stability and development in Afghanistan, Trump’s South Asia Policy mentioned that the US will deploy more troops in Afghanistan without fixing a timeline for the return of US forces.&nbsp;

However, over a year later in July 2018, President Trump shifted his position on Afghanistan issue with the intention of clinching a deal with the Taliban. It would give the US a morally legitimate reason to withdraw its troops.&nbsp;

At the same time, Russia and China’s efforts to hold talks with the Taliban was seen by the US as a major geo-strategic threat to its interests in the region.&nbsp;

While the possible re-emergence of the Taliban is being seen as the onset of another phase of darkness for that blighted country, for India, which has always supported the “Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled,” process with participation of the elected government in Kabul, peace talks between the US and the Taliban and Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops, now pose serious security challenges.

Ever since reconstruction work began in Afghanistan, India has invested over $3 billion building roads, hospitals, schools, providing training, arms and fighter aircraft to the Afghan armed forces.&nbsp;

Taliban’s arrival on the centre stage will not only put India’s economic interests at stake in Afghanistan, it will also pose a huge security threat to India because Pakistan’s prominence in Afghanistan will increase and Islamabad could use the Taliban against Indians there. &nbsp;

Since Russia has also moved to improve ties with Pakistan and is more than keen to play an important role in Afghanistan’s internal affairs, as evident from Moscow’s own peace talks with the Taliban last year, the possible emergence of a strategic China-Russia-Pakistan axis along the Taliban, could jeopardise India’s position.&nbsp;

The Pulwama attack has only validated India’s security concerns. Counter-terrorism experts in the US have argued that it has highlighted the utter failure of the Trump administration in pressurising Pakistan to act against terrorist organisations operating from its soil.

They have also argued that the ISI must have helped JeM in carrying out the Pulwama attack. Afghanistan has also complained to the UN Security Council against Pakistan’s recent engagement with the Taliban.

While US National Security Adviser John Bolton has told his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval that America supports India’s right to self-defence, with both sides reaffirming to work together to ensure that Pakistan ceases to be a safe haven for the JeM and other terror outfits, it remains to be seen how the Trump administration fulfills such promises.&nbsp;

At the same time, the Indian government needs to give up the tag of a soft-power state and take long-lasting punitive action against terrorist organisations and the country whose only aim is to destabilise India.&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-us-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-its-effects-on-india-2723612">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

At a time when US president Donald Trump is holding peace talks with the Taliban terrorists and has decided to withdraw 7,000 troops in the next few months, at least 40 CRPF personnel were killed in one of the deadliest terrorist attacks carried out by the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) in Pulwama.

At a time when US president Donald Trump is holding peace talks with the Taliban terrorists and has decided to withdraw 7,000 troops in the next few months, at least 40 CRPF personnel were killed in one of the deadliest terrorist attacks carried out by the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) in Pulwama. While Indian security forces have killed the three main terrorists behind the Pulwama attack and the Indian government is weighing all possible options to dismantle terror outfits operating against India from across the border, this attack has once again reinforced the fact that the language of peace cannot be an effective tool to deal with terrorists. In fact, ever since the Trump administration started peace talks with the Taliban, there were apprehensions in India, the US and elsewhere that such efforts would only embolden the Taliban. Sure, it was during the Obama administration that the US decided to hold talks with the Taliban and during the 2016 presidential election campaign, Trump too promised to end the war in Afghanistan. Interestingly, the Trump Administration’s South Asia Policy released in 2017 underscored the need for US troops to stay on in Afghanistan. In fact, on the issue of promoting peace, security, stability and development in Afghanistan, Trump’s South Asia Policy mentioned that the US will deploy more troops in Afghanistan without fixing a timeline for the return of US forces. However, over a year later in July 2018, President Trump shifted his position on Afghanistan issue with the intention of clinching a deal with the Taliban. It would give the US a morally legitimate reason to withdraw its troops. At the same time, Russia and China’s efforts to hold talks with the Taliban was seen by the US as a major geo-strategic threat to its interests in the region. While the possible re-emergence of the Taliban is being seen as the onset of another phase of darkness for that blighted country, for India, which has always supported the “Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled,” process with participation of the elected government in Kabul, peace talks between the US and the Taliban and Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops, now pose serious security challenges. Ever since reconstruction work began in Afghanistan, India has invested over $3 billion building roads, hospitals, schools, providing training, arms and fighter aircraft to the Afghan armed forces. Taliban’s arrival on the centre stage will not only put India’s economic interests at stake in Afghanistan, it will also pose a huge security threat to India because Pakistan’s prominence in Afghanistan will increase and Islamabad could use the Taliban against Indians there. Since Russia has also moved to improve ties with Pakistan and is more than keen to play an important role in Afghanistan’s internal affairs, as evident from Moscow’s own peace talks with the Taliban last year, the possible emergence of a strategic China-Russia-Pakistan axis along the Taliban, could jeopardise India’s position. The Pulwama attack has only validated India’s security concerns. Counter-terrorism experts in the US have argued that it has highlighted the utter failure of the Trump administration in pressurising Pakistan to act against terrorist organisations operating from its soil. They have also argued that the ISI must have helped JeM in carrying out the Pulwama attack. Afghanistan has also complained to the UN Security Council against Pakistan’s recent engagement with the Taliban. While US National Security Adviser John Bolton has told his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval that America supports India’s right to self-defence, with both sides reaffirming to work together to ensure that Pakistan ceases to be a safe haven for the JeM and other terror outfits, it remains to be seen how the Trump administration fulfills such promises. At the same time, the Indian government needs to give up the tag of a soft-power state and take long-lasting punitive action against terrorist organisations and the country whose only aim is to destabilise India. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and its effects on India

South African President Matamela Cyril Ramaphosa was the chief guest at the 70th Republic Day Parade during his first state visit to India on January 25-26 this year.&nbsp;

President Matamela and Prime Minister Narendra Modi held extensive discussions on a wide range of issues of bilateral, regional and global importance.

In the post-Cold War era, the relationship between the two countries has improved significantly with India and South Africa having fostered a strategic partnership through the Red Fort Declaration of 1997 and the Tshwane Declaration of 2006.&nbsp;

The formation of the India-Africa Summit in 2008 has further underscored the desire of the two sides to deepen the engagement to fulfil their interests in an unpredictable regional and global order.&nbsp;

Over the last four years, the Modi government’s efforts have truly elevated the relationship between India and South Africa to a new height.&nbsp;

One highlight of this intense bilateral engagement was the participation of 41 African countries in the third India-Africa Forum Summit, held in Delhi in 2016. During these four years, several ministers of the Union cabinet, including Prime Minister Modi, have visited South Africa.&nbsp;

The recent visit of Ramaphosa was the latest development towards re-energising the ties.

Indeed, it gave a big boost to security and defence cooperation, with the two sides having agreed to enter into a three-year strategic engagement. &nbsp;

This, in turn, will serve the two countries’ interests. India and South Africa are two major regional powers in the Indian Ocean, both are strategically located and feel that cooperation between them is indispensable to maintain peace and security in the region. &nbsp;&nbsp;

It is in this context that the South African National Defence Force will participate in the first Multinational India-Africa Field Training Exercise at Pune in March this year, enabling the two forces to understand each others’ functioning. &nbsp;

The South African defence industry has reaffirmed its desire to work with India in the manufacturing of defence hardware under the Make in India Initiative, which is a significant step towards meeting India’s defence requirements and turning this country into an arms-manufacturing hub.&nbsp;

It is precisely in this light that the Ministry of Defence has lifted the ban on South Africa’s state-owned defence company, Denel SOC Ltd.&nbsp;

To boost ties with South Africa and other African countries, the aim is effectively developing a counter-balance against Beijing, especially when China has focused on expanding its influence in the Indian Ocean and beyond.&nbsp;

Another aspect of India-South Africa relations are their expanding economies, with bilateral trade reaching to rise to $10.65 billion in 2018-19 from $9.38 billion in 2017-18.&nbsp;

In 2016, the two countries set a target of doubling bilateral trade and investment to $20-billion by 2021.Over 150 Indian companies have invested in South Africa, with India having emerged as one of the top five trading partners of South Africa.&nbsp;

While these investments have fuelled developmental initiatives in South Africa, New Delhi sees this continent as a big market for Indian investment, goods, expertise, technology and services.&nbsp;

Conversely, over 29 South African companies have invested in different sectors of the Indian economy, accounting for $790 million.&nbsp;

The formation of the Joint Working Group on Trade and Investment and President Ramaphosa’s assurance to simplify and reform the South African business visa regime, will further strengthen bilateral trade and economic ties.&nbsp;

At a time when China has made huge investments in Africa and is trying to engage this continent in its Belt Road Initiative, India feels that expanding economic ties with South Africa and other African countries, would enable it to contain China’s growing clout. &nbsp;

Energy shortage is an important reason for India to aggressively pursue its foreign policy towards Africa. This continent has huge energy reserves, while India is an energy deficient country, importing 70 per cent of its oil needs.&nbsp;

Thus South Africa, which has a huge uranium reserve, can play an important role in providing sustained supply to help India’s nuclear plants.&nbsp;

Close ties will also enable the two sides to exert combined force for the reform of the Security Council, WTO, thereby making the global institutions reflect the reality of the present international scenario. 
 
(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-matamela-cyril-ramaphosa-s-r-day-visit-puts-india-on-african-radar-2718831">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

 
&nbsp;

South African President Matamela Cyril Ramaphosa was the chief guest at the 70th Republic Day Parade during his first state visit to India on January 25-26 this year.

South African President Matamela Cyril Ramaphosa was the chief guest at the 70th Republic Day Parade during his first state visit to India on January 25-26 this year. President Matamela and Prime Minister Narendra Modi held extensive discussions on a wide range of issues of bilateral, regional and global importance. In the post-Cold War era, the relationship between the two countries has improved significantly with India and South Africa having fostered a strategic partnership through the Red Fort Declaration of 1997 and the Tshwane Declaration of 2006. The formation of the India-Africa Summit in 2008 has further underscored the desire of the two sides to deepen the engagement to fulfil their interests in an unpredictable regional and global order. Over the last four years, the Modi government’s efforts have truly elevated the relationship between India and South Africa to a new height. One highlight of this intense bilateral engagement was the participation of 41 African countries in the third India-Africa Forum Summit, held in Delhi in 2016. During these four years, several ministers of the Union cabinet, including Prime Minister Modi, have visited South Africa. The recent visit of Ramaphosa was the latest development towards re-energising the ties. Indeed, it gave a big boost to security and defence cooperation, with the two sides having agreed to enter into a three-year strategic engagement. This, in turn, will serve the two countries’ interests. India and South Africa are two major regional powers in the Indian Ocean, both are strategically located and feel that cooperation between them is indispensable to maintain peace and security in the region. It is in this context that the South African National Defence Force will participate in the first Multinational India-Africa Field Training Exercise at Pune in March this year, enabling the two forces to understand each others’ functioning. The South African defence industry has reaffirmed its desire to work with India in the manufacturing of defence hardware under the Make in India Initiative, which is a significant step towards meeting India’s defence requirements and turning this country into an arms-manufacturing hub. It is precisely in this light that the Ministry of Defence has lifted the ban on South Africa’s state-owned defence company, Denel SOC Ltd. To boost ties with South Africa and other African countries, the aim is effectively developing a counter-balance against Beijing, especially when China has focused on expanding its influence in the Indian Ocean and beyond. Another aspect of India-South Africa relations are their expanding economies, with bilateral trade reaching to rise to $10.65 billion in 2018-19 from $9.38 billion in 2017-18. In 2016, the two countries set a target of doubling bilateral trade and investment to $20-billion by 2021.Over 150 Indian companies have invested in South Africa, with India having emerged as one of the top five trading partners of South Africa. While these investments have fuelled developmental initiatives in South Africa, New Delhi sees this continent as a big market for Indian investment, goods, expertise, technology and services. Conversely, over 29 South African companies have invested in different sectors of the Indian economy, accounting for $790 million. The formation of the Joint Working Group on Trade and Investment and President Ramaphosa’s assurance to simplify and reform the South African business visa regime, will further strengthen bilateral trade and economic ties. At a time when China has made huge investments in Africa and is trying to engage this continent in its Belt Road Initiative, India feels that expanding economic ties with South Africa and other African countries, would enable it to contain China’s growing clout. Energy shortage is an important reason for India to aggressively pursue its foreign policy towards Africa. This continent has huge energy reserves, while India is an energy deficient country, importing 70 per cent of its oil needs. Thus South Africa, which has a huge uranium reserve, can play an important role in providing sustained supply to help India’s nuclear plants. Close ties will also enable the two sides to exert combined force for the reform of the Security Council, WTO, thereby making the global institutions reflect the reality of the present international scenario. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

South African President Matamela Cyril Ramaphosa’s R-Day visit puts India on African radar

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