President Donald Trump's longtime teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez, is under investigation by federal regulators over alleged bets placed on prediction market platform Kalshi related to Trump's speeches. According to reports, Perez allegedly earned more than $90,000 in profits by predicting words and phrases Trump would mention during scheduled addresses. Kalshi flagged the trades as suspicious, froze most of the alleged profits, and referred the matter for review by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Perez, who has operated Trump's teleprompter since the 2016 presidential campaign, is now at the center of an investigation raising fresh concerns over insider information and prediction market trading

Trump suspends teleprompter operator over Kalshi betting allegations, White house says

US is heading for midterms election in early November. In a midterm election, the composition of Congress can be altered. House control will be decided by having more than half of the voting members of the House of Representatives, and one-third of the Senate will be on the ballot. The US Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are projecting Democrats to secure a decisive victory in the November 3 General Elections. The midterm comes as Mr Trump’s approval rating, a typical predictor of how the president’s party will fare, has sunk to a second-term low, driven by US military intervention in Iran and handling of the economy, have fuelled discontent among the voters.&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-seized-1-billion-iranian-crypto-assets-operation-economic-fury-bessent-1780122773826">US seized $1 billion in Iranian crypto assets, 'outright grabbed the wallets': Bessent</a><h2>What are the betting markets projecting?</h2>Two of the major Prediction Markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, are broadly aligned. Democrats are seen as heavy favourites, roughly 3-4 times more likely to win the House then Republican. Polymarket is more bullish on the Democrats than Kalshi, 81 per cent and 76 per cent respectively. Both projects put the Republicans at a disadvantage with 20 per cent and 24 per cent respectively. Across both platforms, over $20.6 milliom in total volume has been traded on the US midterms. Kalshi has roughly two times the trading volume of Polymarket, with over $13.7 million and $6.8 million, respectively. When two liquid markets generally project a particular outcome, it's a strong indicator of insider sentiment.However, the margin markets are particularly interesting–even among those pricing in a democratic win, the most likely scenario is 22 per cent chance of a relatively narrow margin of 8-10 per cent, not a landslide victory. The Kalshi brackets show a 16 per cent chance of Democrats winning by 10-12 per cent. It gives more granular insight than just win or lose. However, the election is more than five months away, and these odds might shift depending on developments in the domestic economy and geopolitics.

Kalshi midterm odds, Polymarket House control, Democrats House majority, Trump approval rating, 2026 US midterms, House of Representatives election, prediction markets US politics

US is heading for midterms election in early November. In a midterm election, the composition of Congress can be altered. House control will be decided by having more than half of the voting members of the House of Representatives, and one-third of the Senate will be on the ballot. The US Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are projecting Democrats to secure a decisive victory in the November 3 General Elections. The midterm comes as Mr Trump’s approval rating, a typical predictor of how the president’s party will fare, has sunk to a second-term low, driven by US military intervention in Iran and handling of the economy, have fuelled discontent among the voters. Also Read: US seized $1 billion in Iranian crypto assets, 'outright grabbed the wallets': Bessent What are the betting markets projecting? Two of the major Prediction Markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, are broadly aligned. Democrats are seen as heavy favourites, roughly 3-4 times more likely to win the House then Republican. Polymarket is more bullish on the Democrats than Kalshi, 81 per cent and 76 per cent respectively. Both projects put the Republicans at a disadvantage with 20 per cent and 24 per cent respectively. Across both platforms, over $20.6 milliom in total volume has been traded on the US midterms. Kalshi has roughly two times the trading volume of Polymarket, with over $13.7 million and $6.8 million, respectively. When two liquid markets generally project a particular outcome, it's a strong indicator of insider sentiment. However, the margin markets are particularly interesting–even among those pricing in a democratic win, the most likely scenario is 22 per cent chance of a relatively narrow margin of 8-10 per cent, not a landslide victory. The Kalshi brackets show a 16 per cent chance of Democrats winning by 10-12 per cent. It gives more granular insight than just win or lose. However, the election is more than five months away, and these odds might shift depending on developments in the domestic economy and geopolitics.

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket strongly favour Democrats to retake the House in the 2026 US midterm elections, with traders citing Trump's falling approval ratings and voter concerns.

$20mn traded as prediction markets favour Democrats to win House in US midterms

Prediction market platform Kalshi has closed a one-billion-dollar funding round at an 11-Billion-Dollar valuation. That is more than double its worth in less than two months as the company rides a surge in mainstream adoption of event-based trading.

Kalshi Raises $1 Billion at $11 Billion Valuation, Surging Past Competitors

The commodities exchange KalshiEx resumed accepting bets on the outcome of the 2024 congressional election on Wednesday, following the removal of a legal freeze by a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. Additionally, Kalshi’s website announced that starting Thursday, the exchange will begin taking bets on the outcome of the presidential race between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

U.S. Elections: What's Next For Political Betting In The US?

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