Despite sitting on some of the world's largest oil reserves, Iran is facing a severe petrol crunch — long queues, shuttered stations, and a 20-litre limit per car in Tehran. A US naval blockade in place since mid-July has choked petrol imports and crude exports alike, while earlier US-Israeli strikes damaged refining and storage facilities. Iranian crude loadings have dropped to roughly one-seventh of pre-war levels, and officials now warn of a critical 15-million-litre daily shortfall as panic buying grips the capital.

Iran Feels the Oil Squeeze Amid US Naval Blockade & Damage to Oil Facilities

Two Iranian drones targeted the Iraqi Kurdistan prime minister's office and the home of the autonomous region's intelligence chief overnight, authorities said Monday.

"Following an investigation by the Kurdistan Counter-Terrorism Unit, my personal office and the home of the head of the Security and Intelligence Agency were targeted by Iranian drone attacks earlier today," Kurdistan Prime Minister Masrour Barzani said, in a post on X.

"This is a dangerous escalation and a direct threat to the security and stability of the Kurdistan region."

Breaking: Iranian drones attack Kurdish Prime Minister's office in Erbil 

PSNI Chief Constable Jon Boutcher has described the Government's refusal to let Operation Kenova name the Army agent codenamed Stakeknife as becoming a "pantomime".

The final report into the activities of the IRA spy known to many to be republican Freddie Scappaticci, lifts the lid on his recruitment and how he was handled, with MI5 accused of attempting to conceal the truth about their dealings with him.

UK's MI5 suppressed truth about spy with IRA? 

Iran's iconic singer Googoosh is on her farewell world tour, "The Final Chapter," marking the end of her legendary seven-decade career. As part of this emotional journey, she has also written an account of her life, sharing personal stories and reflections on her rise to fame, her years of exile, and her enduring relationship with fans.

Iranian Icon Googoosh Embarks on Farewell Tour, Pens Account of Her Life 

Iran has conducted large-scale naval drills in the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman, firing both ballistic and cruise missiles at simulated targets as part of its ongoing efforts to demonstrate military readiness and deterrence. 


Iran’s Massive Naval Drill: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles Fired​

U.S. President Donald Trump said he wants to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran and sent a letter to its leadership this week suggesting talks with the Islamic Republic

Trump Oval Speech: US President Donald Trump Dire Warning To Iran Over Nuclear Deal | WION

President of Sein Fein party, once the political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) on Sunday apologised for IRA's role in killing Lord Louis Mountbatten. Lord Mountbatten was Prince Philip's uncle and last Viceroy of India. The IRA assassinated Mountbatten in 1979 as part of a decades-long conflict waged between Irish republicans and those who wanted Northern Ireland to remain in British hands.

Sein Fein president Mary Lou McDonald's comment came just a day after Prince Philip, husband of Queen Elizabeth the Second, was laid to rest. He passed away at the age of 99 on April 9.

"Of course I am sorry that happened, of course that is heart-breaking," McDonald told Times Radio.

"I am happy to reiterate that on the weekend that your queen buried her beloved husband," she added.

It was the first time the political leader of Irish republicans has apologised for the bombing, with McDonald's predecessor Gerry Adams saying at the time that Mountbatten was a legitimate target.

Three other people, including Mountbatten's 14-year-old grandson and a 15-year-old boy, were killed when the IRA blew up Mountbatten's yacht in the Irish village of Mullaghmore.

Mountbatten was a mentor to Prince Philip and Prince Charles.

McDonald said Sunday that "my job, and I think Prince Charles... would absolutely appreciate this, is to lead from the front now, in these times.

"It's all of our jobs to make sure that no other child, no other family, irrespective of who they are, face the kind of trauma and heartbreak that was all too common sadly in all sides on this island and beyond," she said.&nbsp;

Around 3,500 lives were lost in the conflict between unionists and nationalists over the future of Northern Ireland that ended with a landmark peace deal in 1998.&nbsp;

(With inputs from agencies)

President of Sein Fein party, once the political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) on Sunday apologised for IRA's role in killing Lord Louis Mountbatten. Lord Mountbatten was Prince Philip's uncle and last Viceroy of India.

President of Sein Fein party, once the political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) on Sunday apologised for IRA's role in killing Lord Louis Mountbatten. Lord Mountbatten was Prince Philip's uncle and last Viceroy of India. The IRA assassinated Mountbatten in 1979 as part of a decades-long conflict waged between Irish republicans and those who wanted Northern Ireland to remain in British hands. Sein Fein president Mary Lou McDonald's comment came just a day after Prince Philip, husband of Queen Elizabeth the Second, was laid to rest. He passed away at the age of 99 on April 9. "Of course I am sorry that happened, of course that is heart-breaking," McDonald told Times Radio. "I am happy to reiterate that on the weekend that your queen buried her beloved husband," she added. It was the first time the political leader of Irish republicans has apologised for the bombing, with McDonald's predecessor Gerry Adams saying at the time that Mountbatten was a legitimate target. Three other people, including Mountbatten's 14-year-old grandson and a 15-year-old boy, were killed when the IRA blew up Mountbatten's yacht in the Irish village of Mullaghmore. Mountbatten was a mentor to Prince Philip and Prince Charles. McDonald said Sunday that "my job, and I think Prince Charles... would absolutely appreciate this, is to lead from the front now, in these times. "It's all of our jobs to make sure that no other child, no other family, irrespective of who they are, face the kind of trauma and heartbreak that was all too common sadly in all sides on this island and beyond," she said. Around 3,500 lives were lost in the conflict between unionists and nationalists over the future of Northern Ireland that ended with a landmark peace deal in 1998. (With inputs from agencies)

Sinn Fein apologises for IRA killing of Lord Mountbatten, Prince Philip's uncle

Facebook has suspended more than 450 Facebook accounts that were caught spreading fake news and anti-India propaganda.

In total,&nbsp;453 Facebook accounts, 103 Facebook pages, 78 groups, and 107 Instagram accounts were spotted and suspended. All these accounts were, reportedly, operating from Pakistan, but claimed to be operating from India to gain trust of the followers.

These accounts were spreading fake news against India, Indian Military and minority communities in Pakistan. The content was being circulated mainly in forms of memes. The content talked about fake policies and criticised India's actions towards Pakistan and China.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/law-minister-prasad-urges-zuckerberg-to-protect-fb-from-a-lobby-that-abhors-free-speech-324546">Also read|&nbsp;Law Minister Prasad urges Zuckerberg to protect FB from 'a lobby that abhors free speech'</a>

"We found this network as part of our internal investigation into suspected coordination inauthentic behaviour in the region," Stanford Internet Observatory, who published the report, said.

"The network appears to have primarily targeted Pakistanis and Indians; posts were in Urdu, Hindi, English, and Punjabi. Facebook reports that 70,000 accounts followed at least one of the Pages and 1.1 million users belonged to the Groups," it added.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/misinformation-fake-news-india-calls-out-pakistan-over-false-propaganda-on-social-media-after-stanford-internet-observatory-report-324616">ALso read|&nbsp;'Misinformation, fake news': India calls out Pakistan over false propaganda on social media after Stanford Internet Observatory report</a>

In addition to Pakistan's fake accounts, Facebook also removed 13 accounts and two pages related to Russian Internet Research Agency (IRA). Nearly 55 accounts, 42 pages and 36 Instagram accounts were also suspended in the US for spreading fake news.

Meanwhile,&nbsp;Indian Law and Justice Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad wrote to Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg on September 1 asking about Facebook being used for circulating hate-posts using political bias.

“I’ve been informed that in run up to 2019 Lok Sabha Polls, there was concerted effort by Facebook India to not just delete pages or substantially reduce their reach but also offer no right of appeal to affected people who're supportive of right-of-centre ideology”, he wrote.

Facebook has suspended more than 450 Facebook accounts that were caught spreading fake news and anti-India propaganda. In total, 453 Facebook accounts, 103 Facebook pages, 78 groups, and 107 Instagram accounts were spotted and suspended.

Facebook has suspended more than 450 Facebook accounts that were caught spreading fake news and anti-India propaganda. In total, 453 Facebook accounts, 103 Facebook pages, 78 groups, and 107 Instagram accounts were spotted and suspended. All these accounts were, reportedly, operating from Pakistan, but claimed to be operating from India to gain trust of the followers. These accounts were spreading fake news against India, Indian Military and minority communities in Pakistan. The content was being circulated mainly in forms of memes. The content talked about fake policies and criticised India's actions towards Pakistan and China. Also read| Law Minister Prasad urges Zuckerberg to protect FB from 'a lobby that abhors free speech' "We found this network as part of our internal investigation into suspected coordination inauthentic behaviour in the region," Stanford Internet Observatory, who published the report, said. "The network appears to have primarily targeted Pakistanis and Indians; posts were in Urdu, Hindi, English, and Punjabi. Facebook reports that 70,000 accounts followed at least one of the Pages and 1.1 million users belonged to the Groups," it added. ALso read| 'Misinformation, fake news': India calls out Pakistan over false propaganda on social media after Stanford Internet Observatory report In addition to Pakistan's fake accounts, Facebook also removed 13 accounts and two pages related to Russian Internet Research Agency (IRA). Nearly 55 accounts, 42 pages and 36 Instagram accounts were also suspended in the US for spreading fake news. Meanwhile, Indian Law and Justice Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad wrote to Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg on September 1 asking about Facebook being used for circulating hate-posts using political bias. “I’ve been informed that in run up to 2019 Lok Sabha Polls, there was concerted effort by Facebook India to not just delete pages or substantially reduce their reach but also offer no right of appeal to affected people who're supportive of right-of-centre ideology”, he wrote.

Facebook suspends 453 accounts spreading fake news with anti-India propaganda

The burial of Suleimani has been postponed after dozens were killed in stampede. According to Iran state news agency the burial has been postponed but no further details were available on how long were the delay would last. #Suleimani #SuleimaniKilling #QassemSuleimani #SuleimaniBurial

WION Dispatch: Suleimani burial suspended after stampede

Almost 50 years after <a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/northern-ireland-when-british-troops-moved-in-50-years-ago-with-operation-banner-242680">British troops opened fire on protesters on Bloody Sunday</a>, killing 14 people, the only murder case brought against one of the soldiers reached a Northern Irish court for the first time on Wednesday.

The unnamed veteran, accused of murdering two civilians in Londonderry on January 30, 1972, did not attend the hearing in the city and the case was swiftly adjourned.

But relatives of the Bloody Sunday victims, who gathered together to walk to the courthouse, hailed the very fact it was taking place.

Liam Wray, whose brother was killed, said it was a "historic day".

"We are glad and relieved that his day has arrived, it's been 47 and a half years," he said.

Thirteen people died that day when British troops opened fire on a civil rights demonstration in a majority Catholic area of Londonderry, while a 14th victim later died of his wounds.

In addition to two murder charges, the ex-paratrooper, identified only as "Soldier F", faces charges of the attempted murder of four others.

His case was adjourned until December 4, with the lawyer for the veteran stating his intention to challenge the bid to bring the case to trial.

Bloody Sunday has become one of the most symbolic events in the grim history of the Troubles, the conflict which gripped Northern Ireland for three decades.

But the decision to prosecute the veteran is highly divisive in the British province, which remains haunted by the legacy of unrest.

'Truth and justice'

"Soldier F" was one of 17 British veterans who had faced investigation, plus two alleged paramilitaries with the Irish Republican Army (IRA), which fought British rule.

But he was the only one charged by Northern Ireland's public prosecutor in March following decades of investigation.

The announcement infuriated supporters of Britain's military intervention in Northern Ireland, prompting marches in support of the soldier in Belfast and London.

British military and political communities remain divided over the matter.

Some believe prosecutions for historic crimes betray former troops who acted in good faith, equating them with terrorists.

Others feel the military should be held to the highest standard and any amnesty would be a tacit admission of guilt among those who served with integrity.

Families of those killed broadly welcome the prospect of a trial but do not believe it alone will fully settle the matter.

"It's still an ongoing campaign," John Kelly, whose 17-year-old brother Michael was killed on Bloody Sunday, told AFP last month.

"What people want is truth and justice."

'Unjustified and unjustifiable'

The decision by the British Parachute Regiment to open fire on a civil rights march in the Bogside area helped galvanise support for the Provisional IRA in the early years of the Troubles.

A photograph of a Catholic priest waving a bloodstained handkerchief as he tried to help 17-year-old victim Jackie Duddy to safety became a defining image of the incident.

A 12-year public inquiry into Bloody Sunday the largest investigation in UK legal history concluded in 2010 that British paratroopers lost control and none of the casualties posed a threat of causing death or serious injury.

The probe prompted then-prime minister David Cameron to issue a formal state apology for the killings, calling them "unjustified and unjustifiable".

The Northern Ireland Veterans Association, which held a memorial event to mark the 50th anniversary of British military intervention earlier this year, said its members were "concerned" about such prosecutions.

"We need to learn to deal with our past," said NIVA spokesman Ian Simpson.

"We need to move forward together and have an understanding of what it meant."

Almost 50 years after British troops opened fire on protesters on Bloody Sunday, killing 14 people, the only murder case brought against one of the soldiers reached a Northern Irish court for the first time on Wednesday.

Almost 50 years after British troops opened fire on protesters on Bloody Sunday, killing 14 people, the only murder case brought against one of the soldiers reached a Northern Irish court for the first time on Wednesday. The unnamed veteran, accused of murdering two civilians in Londonderry on January 30, 1972, did not attend the hearing in the city and the case was swiftly adjourned. But relatives of the Bloody Sunday victims, who gathered together to walk to the courthouse, hailed the very fact it was taking place. Liam Wray, whose brother was killed, said it was a "historic day". "We are glad and relieved that his day has arrived, it's been 47 and a half years," he said. Thirteen people died that day when British troops opened fire on a civil rights demonstration in a majority Catholic area of Londonderry, while a 14th victim later died of his wounds. In addition to two murder charges, the ex-paratrooper, identified only as "Soldier F", faces charges of the attempted murder of four others. His case was adjourned until December 4, with the lawyer for the veteran stating his intention to challenge the bid to bring the case to trial. Bloody Sunday has become one of the most symbolic events in the grim history of the Troubles, the conflict which gripped Northern Ireland for three decades. But the decision to prosecute the veteran is highly divisive in the British province, which remains haunted by the legacy of unrest. 'Truth and justice' "Soldier F" was one of 17 British veterans who had faced investigation, plus two alleged paramilitaries with the Irish Republican Army (IRA), which fought British rule. But he was the only one charged by Northern Ireland's public prosecutor in March following decades of investigation. The announcement infuriated supporters of Britain's military intervention in Northern Ireland, prompting marches in support of the soldier in Belfast and London. British military and political communities remain divided over the matter. Some believe prosecutions for historic crimes betray former troops who acted in good faith, equating them with terrorists. Others feel the military should be held to the highest standard and any amnesty would be a tacit admission of guilt among those who served with integrity. Families of those killed broadly welcome the prospect of a trial but do not believe it alone will fully settle the matter. "It's still an ongoing campaign," John Kelly, whose 17-year-old brother Michael was killed on Bloody Sunday, told AFP last month. "What people want is truth and justice." 'Unjustified and unjustifiable' The decision by the British Parachute Regiment to open fire on a civil rights march in the Bogside area helped galvanise support for the Provisional IRA in the early years of the Troubles. A photograph of a Catholic priest waving a bloodstained handkerchief as he tried to help 17-year-old victim Jackie Duddy to safety became a defining image of the incident. A 12-year public inquiry into Bloody Sunday the largest investigation in UK legal history concluded in 2010 that British paratroopers lost control and none of the casualties posed a threat of causing death or serious injury. The probe prompted then-prime minister David Cameron to issue a formal state apology for the killings, calling them "unjustified and unjustifiable". The Northern Ireland Veterans Association, which held a memorial event to mark the 50th anniversary of British military intervention earlier this year, said its members were "concerned" about such prosecutions. "We need to learn to deal with our past," said NIVA spokesman Ian Simpson. "We need to move forward together and have an understanding of what it meant."

Bloody Sunday ex-soldier murder case reaches court

Who knew that a father-daughter bond could be put to scrutiny and shamed by people. It so happened that Bollywood actor Aamir Khan posted a few pictures of his family celebrating his relative's 60th birthday and one of them was with his 21-year-old&nbsp;daughter Ira, playing in the park.&nbsp;

Soon after, obscene comments started pouring in with people calling the scene "unacceptable" while some called it a "porn movie."

People also attacked the actor for sharing pictures&nbsp;during the month of Ramzan.

One Facebook, one user said that people who don’t respect their religion would face the wrath of God.

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People also attacked the actor for sharing pictures during the month of Ramzan

Who knew that a father-daughter bond could be put to scrutiny and shamed by people. It so happened that Bollywood actor Aamir Khan posted a few pictures of his family celebrating his relative's 60th birthday and one of them was with his 21-year-old daughter Ira, playing in the park. Soon after, obscene comments started pouring in with people calling the scene "unacceptable" while some called it a "porn movie." People also attacked the actor for sharing pictures during the month of Ramzan. One Facebook, one user said that people who don’t respect their religion would face the wrath of God. Wrong number ?? pic.twitter.com/ITaqwhBhdE — Finger of India (@IndiaFinger) May 30, 2018 × × ×

Trolls attack Aamir Khan for playing with daughter, posting food pictures during Ramzan

By:&nbspConn Hallinan*

The unusual triple alliance coming out of Syria could change the regional balance of power and unhinge NATO — if it holds together at all.

An unusual triple alliance is emerging from the Syrian War — one that could alter the balance of power in the Middle East, unhinge the NATO alliance, and complicate the Trump administration’s designs on Iran. It might also lead to yet another double cross of one of the region’s largest ethnic groups, the Kurds.

However, the "troika alliance" — Turkey, Russia and Iran — consists of three countries that don’t much like one another, have different goals, and whose policies are driven by a combination of geo-global goals and internal politics. In short, "fragile and complicated" doesn’t even begin to describe it.

How the triad might be affected by the joint American, French and British attack on Syria is unclear, but in the long run the alliance will likely survive the uptick of hostilities.

Consolidating Erdogan's grip

Common ground was what came out of the April 4 meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Meeting in Ankara, the parties pledged to support the "territorial integrity" of Syria, find a diplomatic end to the war, and to begin a reconstruction of a Syria devastated by seven years of war. While Russia and Turkey explicitly backed the UN-sponsored talks in Geneva, Iran was quiet on that issue, preferring a regional solution without "foreign plans."

"Common ground," however, doesn’t mean the members of the "troika" are on the same page.

Turkey’s interests are both internal and external. The Turkish army is currently conducting two military operations in northern Syria, Olive Branch and Euphrates Shield, aimed at driving the mainly Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) out of land that borders Turkey. But those operations are also deeply entwined with domestic Turkish politics.

Erdogan's internal support has been eroded by a number of factors: exhaustion with the ongoing state of emergency imposed following the 2016 attempted coup, a shaky economy, and a precipitous fall in the value of the Turkish lira.

Rather than waiting for 2019, Erdogan has called a snap election for June 24, and beating up on the Kurds is always popular with right-wing Turkish nationalists. Erdogan needs all the votes he can get to implement the newly minted executive presidency that will give him virtually one-man rule.

Driving a wedge in NATO

To be part of the alliance, however, Erdogan has had to modify his goal of getting rid of Syrian President Bashar Assad and to agree — at this point, anyhow — to eventually withdraw from areas in northern Syria seized by the Turkish army. Russia and Iran have called for turning over the regions conquered by the Turks to the Syrian army.

Moscow's goals are to keep a foothold in the Middle East with its only base, Tartus, and to aid its long-time ally, Syria. The Russians aren’t deeply committed to Assad personally, but they want a friendly government in Damascus. They also want to destroy al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, which have caused Moscow considerable trouble in the Caucasus.

Russia also wouldn't mind driving a wedge between Ankara and NATO. After the US, Turkey has NATO’s second-largest army. NATO broke a 1989 agreement not to recruit former members of the Russian-dominated Warsaw Pact into NATO as a quid pro quo for the Soviets withdrawing from Eastern Europe.

Since the Yugoslav War in 1999, the alliance has marched right up to the borders of Russia. (The 2008 war with Georgia and 2014 seizure of the Crimea were largely a reaction to what Moscow sees as an encirclement strategy by its adversaries.)

Turkey has been at odds with its NATO allies around a dispute between Greece and Cyprus over sea-based oil and gas resources, and it recently charged two Greek soldiers who violated the Turkish border with espionage.

Erdogan is also angry that European Union countries refuse to extradite Turkish soldiers and civilians whom he claims helped engineer the 2016 coup against him. While most NATO countries condemned Moscow for the recent attack on two Russians in Britain, the Turks pointedly did not.

Turkish relations with Russia have an economic side as well. Ankara wants a natural gas pipeline from Russia, has broken ground on a $20 billion Russian nuclear reactor, and just shelled out $2.5 billion for Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft system.

The Kurdish question

The Russians don't support Erdogan’s war on the Kurds and have lobbied for the inclusion of Kurdish delegations in negotiations over the future of Syria. But Moscow clearly gave the Turks a green light to attack the Kurdish city of Afrin in March, driving out the YPG that had liberated it from the Islamic State and Turkish-backed al-Qaeda groups. A number of Kurds charge that Moscow has betrayed them.

Will the Russians stand aside if the Turkish forces move further into Syria and attack the city of Manbij, where the Kurds are allied with American and French forces? And will Erdogan's hostility to the Kurds lead to an armed clash among three NATO members?

Such a clash seems unlikely, although the Turks have been giving flamethrower speeches over the past several weeks. "Those who cooperate with terrorist organisations [the YPG] will be targeted by Turkey," Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag said in a pointed reference to France's support for the Kurds. Threatening the French is one thing, picking a fight with the US military quite another.

Of course, if President Donald Trump pulls US forces out of Syria, it will be tempting for Turkey to move in. While the “troika alliance” has agreed to Syrian "sovereignty," that won’t stop Ankara from meddling in Kurdish affairs. The Turks are already appointing governors and mayors for the areas in Syria they have occupied.

Keeping the US at bay

Iran's major concern in Syria is maintaining a buffer between itself and the very aggressive American, Israeli and Saudi alliance, which seems to be in the preliminary stages of planning a war against the second-largest country in the Middle East.

Iran is not at all the threat it’s been pumped up to be. Its military is minuscule and talk of a so-called "Shia crescent" — Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon — is pretty much a Western invention (although the term was dreamed up by the Sunni king of Jordan).

Tehran has been weakened by crippling sanctions and faces the possibility that Washington will withdraw from the nuclear accord and re-impose yet more sanctions. The appointment of US National Security Adviser John Bolton, who openly calls for regime change in Iran, has to have sent a chill down the spines of the Iranians.

What Tehran needs most of all is allies who will shield it from the enmity of the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. In this regard, Turkey and Russia could be helpful.

Iran has modified its original goals in Syria of a Shia-dominated regime by agreeing to a "non-sectarian character" for a post-war Syria. (Erdogan has also given up on his desire for a Sunni-dominated government in Damascus.)

War and oil

The war between the US or its allies and Iran would be catastrophic — an unwinnable conflict that could destabilise the Middle East even more than it is now. It would, however, drive up the price of oil, currently running at around $66 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia needs to sell its oil for at least $100 a barrel or it will very quickly run of money. The ongoing quagmire of the Yemen War, the need to diversify the economy, and the growing clamor by young Saudis — 70 per cent of the population — for jobs require lots of money, and the current trends in oil pricing are not going to cover the bills.

War and oil make for odd bedfellows. While the Saudis are doing their best to overthrow the Assad regime and fuel the extremists fighting the Russians, Riyadh is wooing Moscow to sign on to a long-term OPEC agreement to control oil supplies.

That probably won’t happen — the Russians are fine with oil at $50 to $60 a barrel — and are wary of agreements that would restrict their right to develop new oil and gas resources.

The Saudis' jihad on the Iranians has a desperate edge to it. The greatest threat to the kingdom has always come from within.

The rocks and shoals that can wreck alliances in the Middle East are too numerous to count, and the "troika" is riven with contradictions and conflicting interests. But the war in Syria looks as if it’s coming to some kind of resolution — and at this point Iran, Russia and Turkey seem to be the only actors who have a script that goes beyond lobbing cruise missiles at people.

*Conn M. Hallinan is a columnist for Foreign Policy in Focus, "A Think Tank Without Walls," and an independent journalist.&nbsp

(This article was originally published on <a href="https://www.fairobserver.com/ ">Fair Observer</a>. Read the original <a href="https://www.fairobserver.com/region/middle_east_north_africa/syrian-war-turkey-iran-russia-world-news-headlines-43093/">article</a>.)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The unusual triple alliance coming out of Syria could change the regional balance of power and unhinge NATO — if it holds together at all

By: Conn Hallinan* The unusual triple alliance coming out of Syria could change the regional balance of power and unhinge NATO — if it holds together at all. An unusual triple alliance is emerging from the Syrian War — one that could alter the balance of power in the Middle East, unhinge the NATO alliance, and complicate the Trump administration’s designs on Iran. It might also lead to yet another double cross of one of the region’s largest ethnic groups, the Kurds. However, the "troika alliance" — Turkey, Russia and Iran — consists of three countries that don’t much like one another, have different goals, and whose policies are driven by a combination of geo-global goals and internal politics. In short, "fragile and complicated" doesn’t even begin to describe it. How the triad might be affected by the joint American, French and British attack on Syria is unclear, but in the long run the alliance will likely survive the uptick of hostilities. Consolidating Erdogan's grip Common ground was what came out of the April 4 meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Meeting in Ankara, the parties pledged to support the "territorial integrity" of Syria, find a diplomatic end to the war, and to begin a reconstruction of a Syria devastated by seven years of war. While Russia and Turkey explicitly backed the UN-sponsored talks in Geneva, Iran was quiet on that issue, preferring a regional solution without "foreign plans." "Common ground," however, doesn’t mean the members of the "troika" are on the same page. Turkey’s interests are both internal and external. The Turkish army is currently conducting two military operations in northern Syria, Olive Branch and Euphrates Shield, aimed at driving the mainly Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) out of land that borders Turkey. But those operations are also deeply entwined with domestic Turkish politics. Erdogan's internal support has been eroded by a number of factors: exhaustion with the ongoing state of emergency imposed following the 2016 attempted coup, a shaky economy, and a precipitous fall in the value of the Turkish lira. Rather than waiting for 2019, Erdogan has called a snap election for June 24, and beating up on the Kurds is always popular with right-wing Turkish nationalists. Erdogan needs all the votes he can get to implement the newly minted executive presidency that will give him virtually one-man rule. Driving a wedge in NATO To be part of the alliance, however, Erdogan has had to modify his goal of getting rid of Syrian President Bashar Assad and to agree — at this point, anyhow — to eventually withdraw from areas in northern Syria seized by the Turkish army. Russia and Iran have called for turning over the regions conquered by the Turks to the Syrian army. Moscow's goals are to keep a foothold in the Middle East with its only base, Tartus, and to aid its long-time ally, Syria. The Russians aren’t deeply committed to Assad personally, but they want a friendly government in Damascus. They also want to destroy al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, which have caused Moscow considerable trouble in the Caucasus. Russia also wouldn't mind driving a wedge between Ankara and NATO. After the US, Turkey has NATO’s second-largest army. NATO broke a 1989 agreement not to recruit former members of the Russian-dominated Warsaw Pact into NATO as a quid pro quo for the Soviets withdrawing from Eastern Europe. Since the Yugoslav War in 1999, the alliance has marched right up to the borders of Russia. (The 2008 war with Georgia and 2014 seizure of the Crimea were largely a reaction to what Moscow sees as an encirclement strategy by its adversaries.) Turkey has been at odds with its NATO allies around a dispute between Greece and Cyprus over sea-based oil and gas resources, and it recently charged two Greek soldiers who violated the Turkish border with espionage. Erdogan is also angry that European Union countries refuse to extradite Turkish soldiers and civilians whom he claims helped engineer the 2016 coup against him. While most NATO countries condemned Moscow for the recent attack on two Russians in Britain, the Turks pointedly did not. Turkish relations with Russia have an economic side as well. Ankara wants a natural gas pipeline from Russia, has broken ground on a $20 billion Russian nuclear reactor, and just shelled out $2.5 billion for Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft system. The Kurdish question The Russians don't support Erdogan’s war on the Kurds and have lobbied for the inclusion of Kurdish delegations in negotiations over the future of Syria. But Moscow clearly gave the Turks a green light to attack the Kurdish city of Afrin in March, driving out the YPG that had liberated it from the Islamic State and Turkish-backed al-Qaeda groups. A number of Kurds charge that Moscow has betrayed them. Will the Russians stand aside if the Turkish forces move further into Syria and attack the city of Manbij, where the Kurds are allied with American and French forces? And will Erdogan's hostility to the Kurds lead to an armed clash among three NATO members? Such a clash seems unlikely, although the Turks have been giving flamethrower speeches over the past several weeks. "Those who cooperate with terrorist organisations [the YPG] will be targeted by Turkey," Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag said in a pointed reference to France's support for the Kurds. Threatening the French is one thing, picking a fight with the US military quite another. Of course, if President Donald Trump pulls US forces out of Syria, it will be tempting for Turkey to move in. While the “troika alliance” has agreed to Syrian "sovereignty," that won’t stop Ankara from meddling in Kurdish affairs. The Turks are already appointing governors and mayors for the areas in Syria they have occupied. Keeping the US at bay Iran's major concern in Syria is maintaining a buffer between itself and the very aggressive American, Israeli and Saudi alliance, which seems to be in the preliminary stages of planning a war against the second-largest country in the Middle East. Iran is not at all the threat it’s been pumped up to be. Its military is minuscule and talk of a so-called "Shia crescent" — Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon — is pretty much a Western invention (although the term was dreamed up by the Sunni king of Jordan). Tehran has been weakened by crippling sanctions and faces the possibility that Washington will withdraw from the nuclear accord and re-impose yet more sanctions. The appointment of US National Security Adviser John Bolton, who openly calls for regime change in Iran, has to have sent a chill down the spines of the Iranians. What Tehran needs most of all is allies who will shield it from the enmity of the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. In this regard, Turkey and Russia could be helpful. Iran has modified its original goals in Syria of a Shia-dominated regime by agreeing to a "non-sectarian character" for a post-war Syria. (Erdogan has also given up on his desire for a Sunni-dominated government in Damascus.) War and oil The war between the US or its allies and Iran would be catastrophic — an unwinnable conflict that could destabilise the Middle East even more than it is now. It would, however, drive up the price of oil, currently running at around $66 a barrel. Saudi Arabia needs to sell its oil for at least $100 a barrel or it will very quickly run of money. The ongoing quagmire of the Yemen War, the need to diversify the economy, and the growing clamor by young Saudis — 70 per cent of the population — for jobs require lots of money, and the current trends in oil pricing are not going to cover the bills. War and oil make for odd bedfellows. While the Saudis are doing their best to overthrow the Assad regime and fuel the extremists fighting the Russians, Riyadh is wooing Moscow to sign on to a long-term OPEC agreement to control oil supplies. That probably won’t happen — the Russians are fine with oil at $50 to $60 a barrel — and are wary of agreements that would restrict their right to develop new oil and gas resources. The Saudis' jihad on the Iranians has a desperate edge to it. The greatest threat to the kingdom has always come from within. The rocks and shoals that can wreck alliances in the Middle East are too numerous to count, and the "troika" is riven with contradictions and conflicting interests. But the war in Syria looks as if it’s coming to some kind of resolution — and at this point Iran, Russia and Turkey seem to be the only actors who have a script that goes beyond lobbing cruise missiles at people. *Conn M. Hallinan is a columnist for Foreign Policy in Focus, "A Think Tank Without Walls," and an independent journalist. (This article was originally published on Fair Observer. Read the original article.) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Opinion: An emerging Russia-Turkey-Iran alliance could reshape the Middle East

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