The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world, but new developments suggest oil traffic through the waterway may be more active than previously believed. As global markets closely monitor shipping activity, uncertainty surrounding security, trade flows, and geopolitical tensions continues to influence oil prices.

 Any disruption in Hormuz can have far-reaching consequences for energy-importing nations and global inflation. This report examines the latest signals from the Gulf, what they mean for oil markets, and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest unknown for global energy traders.

Hormuz flows: Oil market’s biggest unknown 

Continuous attacks by Ukraine on a Russian refinery and a Houthi attack on a Saudi refining facility has disturbed in balance of Global fuel supply, resulting in surged of diesel prices. According to media reports, refining margins in Europe had increased by 10 per cent. This outcome is due to the war in the Middle East and the Ukrainian drone attacks on the refinery network of Russia. The report also indicated that diesel futures in the United States booked their sharpest rise since July on Monday, adding 7.4 per cent to $4.19 per gallon. According to AAA data, the average retail price for a gallon of diesel was $5.32 on Tuesday, which rose from $4.88 per gallon a month ago and $3.71 per gallon a year ago. “Refining margins remain elevated because every additional barrel of product has become significantly more valuable than every additional barrel of crude,” Kpler lead analyst for refining supply and modelling, Sumit Ritolia, told the Wall Street Journal this week. The report also indicates that the 3-2-1 crack spread, a key benchmark for refining margins, has surged past $70 per barrel, well above its typical range of under $20. Refineries are running at unusually high utilisation rates to offset supply losses from the Middle East and Russia, but this comes with limits. Kpler's Ritolia told the WSJ that utilisation above 90-95 per cent leaves refineries with almost no operational flexibility. Exxon and Chevron recently reported utilisation rates between 95-97 per cent, while Shell's exceeded 100 per cent. As refineries now enter maintenance season, a critical period for ensuring fuel supply security, some output will inevitably be lost, likely pushing fuel prices higher still. Certain regions face a broader refinery shortage, particularly Europe, where refineries have been shutting down for years amid EU and national decarbonization efforts aimed at mass transport electrification. Since this shift hasn't fully materialised, demand for hydrocarbon fuels remains strong, even as domestic refining capacity shrinks, leaving the EU more exposed to global energy markets and driving up its import costs.<h3>Rebalance of supply chain</h3>Analysts currently expect refining margins to remain significantly higher than usual until the end of the year. If the war in the Middle East ends in future, it will likely take time to rebalance the supply chain. China, which had prevented a spike in global crude oil futures by cutting back on imports, doesn't appear poised to do the same for fuel prices. While the country has maintained its export restrictions, it has eased them somewhat, permitting refiners to export more fuel in August. This temporary relaxation of export caps applies for the month, though refiners unable to secure buyers for their full allotment will be allowed to carry some volumes over into September. This move is unlikely to ease the global fuel shortage, much like record U.S. exports haven't fully resolved it — even though they've helped offset some of the shortfall from Russia and the Middle East. Meanwhile, within the U.S., diesel inventories have dropped to their lowest level for this time of year in three decades, according to Reuters' reporting on record diesel prices. This means the U.S., despite being the world's largest oil and fuel exporter, has limited room to further increase exports to fuel-starved regions. The US Energy Information Administration stated earlier this week that it expects some oil production in the Middle East to remain offline well into 2027, potentially through the end of the year. This points to a prolonged supply squeeze on both crude oil and fuel supplies. Such a trend could accelerate toward electrification, though rising fuel costs spreading across industries, including EV manufacturing, might also dampen demand for EVs themselves. &nbsp;

A key benchmark for refining margins has surged past $70 per barrel, well above its typical range of under $20. Refineries are running at unusually high utilisation rates to offset supply losses from the Middle East and Russia, but this comes with limits.

Continuous attacks by Ukraine on a Russian refinery and a Houthi attack on a Saudi refining facility has disturbed in balance of Global fuel supply, resulting in surged of diesel prices. According to media reports, refining margins in Europe had increased by 10 per cent. This outcome is due to the war in the Middle East and the Ukrainian drone attacks on the refinery network of Russia. The report also indicated that diesel futures in the United States booked their sharpest rise since July on Monday, adding 7.4 per cent to $4.19 per gallon. According to AAA data, the average retail price for a gallon of diesel was $5.32 on Tuesday, which rose from $4.88 per gallon a month ago and $3.71 per gallon a year ago. “Refining margins remain elevated because every additional barrel of product has become significantly more valuable than every additional barrel of crude,” Kpler lead analyst for refining supply and modelling, Sumit Ritolia, told the Wall Street Journal this week. The report also indicates that the 3-2-1 crack spread, a key benchmark for refining margins, has surged past $70 per barrel, well above its typical range of under $20. Refineries are running at unusually high utilisation rates to offset supply losses from the Middle East and Russia, but this comes with limits. Kpler's Ritolia told the WSJ that utilisation above 90-95 per cent leaves refineries with almost no operational flexibility. Exxon and Chevron recently reported utilisation rates between 95-97 per cent, while Shell's exceeded 100 per cent. As refineries now enter maintenance season, a critical period for ensuring fuel supply security, some output will inevitably be lost, likely pushing fuel prices higher still. Certain regions face a broader refinery shortage, particularly Europe, where refineries have been shutting down for years amid EU and national decarbonization efforts aimed at mass transport electrification. Since this shift hasn't fully materialised, demand for hydrocarbon fuels remains strong, even as domestic refining capacity shrinks, leaving the EU more exposed to global energy markets and driving up its import costs. Rebalance of supply chain Analysts currently expect refining margins to remain significantly higher than usual until the end of the year. If the war in the Middle East ends in future, it will likely take time to rebalance the supply chain. China, which had prevented a spike in global crude oil futures by cutting back on imports, doesn't appear poised to do the same for fuel prices. While the country has maintained its export restrictions, it has eased them somewhat, permitting refiners to export more fuel in August. This temporary relaxation of export caps applies for the month, though refiners unable to secure buyers for their full allotment will be allowed to carry some volumes over into September. This move is unlikely to ease the global fuel shortage, much like record U.S. exports haven't fully resolved it — even though they've helped offset some of the shortfall from Russia and the Middle East. Meanwhile, within the U.S., diesel inventories have dropped to their lowest level for this time of year in three decades, according to Reuters' reporting on record diesel prices. This means the U.S., despite being the world's largest oil and fuel exporter, has limited room to further increase exports to fuel-starved regions. The US Energy Information Administration stated earlier this week that it expects some oil production in the Middle East to remain offline well into 2027, potentially through the end of the year. This points to a prolonged supply squeeze on both crude oil and fuel supplies. Such a trend could accelerate toward electrification, though rising fuel costs spreading across industries, including EV manufacturing, might also dampen demand for EVs themselves.

A key benchmark for refining margins has surged past $70 per barrel, well above its typical range of under $20. Refineries are running at unusually high utilisation rates to offset supply losses from the Middle East and Russia, but this comes with limits.

Refinery attacks in Russia-Ukraine war and West Asia conflicts trigger global fuel price surge

US secretary of state Marco Rubio ⁠on Tuesday said ​that Iran ⁠and Oman have made progress ​on ‌getting ‌more ships through ‌the strait of Hormuz but no final agreement has been ‌reached.&nbsp;“There’s been progress made ​in those talks, but not finality yet. ⁠We’re hoping that ​will happen ​very ​shortly,” Rubio ​told reporters ‌at ​the ​State Department.&nbsp;He claimed that some commercial vessels have managed to transit the Strait, though there were efforts to block their passage.&nbsp;"There's a conversation and a negotiation that we are involved in between Oman and Iran on how more ships can be able to go through there safely in the short term," said Rubio.&nbsp;Earlier Tuesday, &nbsp;Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there is a possibility that US could announce a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “today or tomorrow".&nbsp;Speaking to CBS Bessent said, "There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict."&nbsp;And when asked whether Iran would be allowed to charge a toll, Bessent said “It would be freedom of movement".&nbsp;<h2>Oil prices plunge</h2>&nbsp;As soon as Bessent and Rubio made the announcement oil prices tumbled. The main US oil contract, West Texas Intermediate, dropped five percent to $76.32 a barrel, while the cost of a barrel of brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, slid back below $80 a barrel.&nbsp;This was the biggest drop for both contracts since 13 July.&nbsp;

US secretary of state Marco Rubio claimed that some commercial vessels have managed to transit the Strait, though there were efforts to block their passage.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio ⁠on Tuesday said that Iran ⁠and Oman have made progress on ‌getting ‌more ships through ‌the strait of Hormuz but no final agreement has been ‌reached. “There’s been progress made in those talks, but not finality yet. ⁠We’re hoping that will happen very shortly,” Rubio told reporters ‌at the State Department. He claimed that some commercial vessels have managed to transit the Strait, though there were efforts to block their passage. "There's a conversation and a negotiation that we are involved in between Oman and Iran on how more ships can be able to go through there safely in the short term," said Rubio. Earlier Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there is a possibility that US could announce a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “today or tomorrow". Speaking to CBS Bessent said, "There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict." And when asked whether Iran would be allowed to charge a toll, Bessent said “It would be freedom of movement". Oil prices plunge As soon as Bessent and Rubio made the announcement oil prices tumbled. The main US oil contract, West Texas Intermediate, dropped five percent to $76.32 a barrel, while the cost of a barrel of brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, slid back below $80 a barrel. This was the biggest drop for both contracts since 13 July.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio claimed that some commercial vessels have managed to transit the Strait, though there were efforts to block their passage.

Progress made ​in talks for reopening Hormuz, says Rubio; oil prices plunge

Iran's chief negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has ridiculed the United States' military strategy aimed at weakening Tehran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz, claiming the approach has backfired by driving up global oil prices.In a sarcastic post on X, Ghalibaf wrote: "They wanted to punish Iran. Punished themselves with triple-digit oil instead. 10/10 strategy."&nbsp;Also read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/the-delusional-us-president-has-khamenei-s-adviser-warns-of-severe-response-to-any-us-strikes-on-bridges-or-power-plants-1784837345063">'The delusional US president has...': Khamenei’s adviser warns of ‘severe’ response to any US strikes on bridges or power plants</a>&nbsp;His remarks came after Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, briefly climbed above $100 a barrel on Thursday following attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels on two Saudi oil tankers.The comments come amid the continuing fallout from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has fuelled concerns over energy supplies and disrupted global markets.&nbsp;Also read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/pay-a-big-price-trump-issues-fresh-warning-as-he-receives-us-troops-killed-by-iran-1784760407508">'Pay a big price': Trump issues fresh warning as he receives US troops killed by Iran</a>&nbsp;Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast, citing the economic impact of the conflict. The IMF described the outlook as a "modest slowdown", revising its projected global growth rate for the year from 3.1 per cent to 3 per cent.&nbsp;Also read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/is-pentagon-hiding-missile-shortage-from-trump-us-officials-raise-alarm-over-iran-war-readiness-1784677584736">Is Pentagon hiding missile shortage from Trump? US officials raise alarm over Iran war readiness</a>&nbsp;The Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint through which a significant share of the world's oil passes, remains at the centre of regional tensions, with markets closely monitoring developments over fears of further disruptions to global energy supplies.&nbsp;Also read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/he-s-the-architect-of-the-genocide-against-palestinians-despite-trump-s-remark-mamdani-repeats-netanyahu-will-be-arrested-if-visits-us-1784666149643">‘He's the architect of the genocide against Palestinians’: Mamdani repeats Netanyahu will be arrested if he visits US</a>Jul 22, 2026

Iranian official Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf mocked US military strategy near the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it backfired by pushing global Brent crude prices past $100 amid regional energy conflict.

Iran's chief negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has ridiculed the United States' military strategy aimed at weakening Tehran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz, claiming the approach has backfired by driving up global oil prices. In a sarcastic post on X, Ghalibaf wrote: "They wanted to punish Iran. Punished themselves with triple-digit oil instead. 10/10 strategy." Also read: 'The delusional US president has...': Khamenei’s adviser warns of ‘severe’ response to any US strikes on bridges or power plants His remarks came after Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, briefly climbed above $100 a barrel on Thursday following attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels on two Saudi oil tankers. The comments come amid the continuing fallout from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has fuelled concerns over energy supplies and disrupted global markets. Also read: 'Pay a big price': Trump issues fresh warning as he receives US troops killed by Iran Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast, citing the economic impact of the conflict. The IMF described the outlook as a "modest slowdown", revising its projected global growth rate for the year from 3.1 per cent to 3 per cent. Also read: Is Pentagon hiding missile shortage from Trump? US officials raise alarm over Iran war readiness The Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint through which a significant share of the world's oil passes, remains at the centre of regional tensions, with markets closely monitoring developments over fears of further disruptions to global energy supplies. Also read: ‘He's the architect of the genocide against Palestinians’: Mamdani repeats Netanyahu will be arrested if he visits US Jul 22, 2026

Iranian official Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf mocked US military strategy near the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it backfired by pushing global Brent crude prices past $100 amid regional energy conflict.

‘10/10 strategy’: Iran's Ghalibaf mocks US strategy after oil prices surge past $100

The conflict between the United States and Iran has entered its fifth consecutive day of military escalation, with fresh U.S. strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure linked to threats against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media reported explosions across multiple cities, while Tehran retaliated by launching attacks on U.S. military positions in Bahrain and Kuwait, further raising fears of a wider regional conflict. President Donald Trump has vowed to continue military operations unless Iran returns to negotiations, while Vice President JD Vance has publicly argued that diplomacy—not prolonged military intervention or ground troops—offers the only sustainable path to ending the crisis. Meanwhile, Iranian officials have questioned the future of previous diplomatic understandings, signaling that the prospects for renewed negotiations remain uncertain.

U.S.-Iran war: Trump threatens more strikes while Iran targets U.S. bases across the Gulf region

SINGAPORE
Oil prices experienced a modest uptick on Wednesday, with investors maintaining a cautious stance ahead of the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision and ongoing geopolitical developments affecting global energy markets.
Brent crude futures increased by 32 cents, representing a 0.44% rise to USD 73.51 per barrel, while United States West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 32 cents, a 0.46% increase to USD 70.40 per barrel.
Market analysts are closely monitoring the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting, with particular attention focused on potential interest rate strategies for 2025. Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG, noted that while additional Western sanctions might limit potential losses, a cautious market sentiment prevails leading up to the FOMC gathering.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to implement its third interest rate cut since initiating its policy easing cycle. Lower interest rates traditionally decrease borrowing costs, potentially stimulating economic growth and subsequently increasing oil demand.
Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst with Phillip Nova, highlighted the complex political landscape surrounding future monetary policy. She emphasised the uncertainty generated by potential political transitions, particularly with speculation about former President Donald Trump's potential return to office on 20 January.
"There is a prevailing narrative that Trump's policies may lead to inflation," Sachdeva explained. "Coupled with concerns about potential interference with the Federal Reserve's autonomy, this is causing oil investors to remain particularly cautious."
The geopolitical landscape continues to influence oil market dynamics. The European Union recently adopted its 15th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting the country's maritime infrastructure. These new measures include sanctioning an additional 33 vessels from Russia's shadow fleet used for crude and petroleum product transportation. The United Kingdom has similarly sanctioned 20 ships engaged in transporting illicit Russian oil.
Despite the increasing sanctions, international observers note that these measures have thus far failed to significantly disrupt Russia's global oil trade, maintaining a degree of market uncertainty.
Domestic energy data provides additional context for market movements. The American Petroleum Institute reported a significant reduction in crude stocks, with a decrease of 4.69 million barrels in the week ending 13 December. Simultaneously, gasoline inventories increased by 2.45 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 744,000 barrels.
Analysts participating in a Reuters poll projected that United States energy firms would extract approximately 1.6 million barrels from storage during the same period. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its official oil storage data on Wednesday, which could potentially influence market sentiment.
Yeap Jun Rong suggested that oil prices are likely to remain constrained within their current range, with subdued price action anticipated through the year's conclusion. This forecast reflects the complex interplay of monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and global economic uncertainties.

Global oil markets show marginal gains as investors await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and assess the impact of new sanctions on Russia.

 



SINGAPORE Oil prices experienced a modest uptick on Wednesday, with investors maintaining a cautious stance ahead of the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision and ongoing geopolitical developments affecting global energy markets. Brent crude futures increased by 32 cents, representing a 0.44% rise to USD 73.51 per barrel, while United States West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 32 cents, a 0.46% increase to USD 70.40 per barrel. Market analysts are closely monitoring the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting, with particular attention focused on potential interest rate strategies for 2025. Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG, noted that while additional Western sanctions might limit potential losses, a cautious market sentiment prevails leading up to the FOMC gathering. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to implement its third interest rate cut since initiating its policy easing cycle. Lower interest rates traditionally decrease borrowing costs, potentially stimulating economic growth and subsequently increasing oil demand. Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst with Phillip Nova, highlighted the complex political landscape surrounding future monetary policy. She emphasised the uncertainty generated by potential political transitions, particularly with speculation about former President Donald Trump's potential return to office on 20 January. "There is a prevailing narrative that Trump's policies may lead to inflation," Sachdeva explained. "Coupled with concerns about potential interference with the Federal Reserve's autonomy, this is causing oil investors to remain particularly cautious." The geopolitical landscape continues to influence oil market dynamics. The European Union recently adopted its 15th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting the country's maritime infrastructure. These new measures include sanctioning an additional 33 vessels from Russia's shadow fleet used for crude and petroleum product transportation. The United Kingdom has similarly sanctioned 20 ships engaged in transporting illicit Russian oil. Despite the increasing sanctions, international observers note that these measures have thus far failed to significantly disrupt Russia's global oil trade, maintaining a degree of market uncertainty. Domestic energy data provides additional context for market movements. The American Petroleum Institute reported a significant reduction in crude stocks, with a decrease of 4.69 million barrels in the week ending 13 December. Simultaneously, gasoline inventories increased by 2.45 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 744,000 barrels. Analysts participating in a Reuters poll projected that United States energy firms would extract approximately 1.6 million barrels from storage during the same period. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its official oil storage data on Wednesday, which could potentially influence market sentiment. Yeap Jun Rong suggested that oil prices are likely to remain constrained within their current range, with subdued price action anticipated through the year's conclusion. This forecast reflects the complex interplay of monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and global economic uncertainties.

Oil prices inch higher amid Federal Reserve deliberations

Oil prices experienced a modest uptick on Wednesday, with investors maintaining a cautious stance ahead of the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision and ongoing geopolitical developments affecting global energy markets.

Brent crude futures increased by 32 cents, representing a 0.44% rise to USD 73.51 per barrel, while United States West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 32 cents, a 0.46% increase to USD 70.40 per barrel.

Market analysts are closely monitoring the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting, with particular attention focused on potential interest rate strategies for 2025. Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG, noted that while additional Western sanctions might limit potential losses, a cautious market sentiment prevails leading up to the FOMC gathering.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to implement its third interest rate cut since initiating its policy easing cycle. Lower interest rates traditionally decrease borrowing costs, potentially stimulating economic growth and subsequently increasing oil demand.

Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst with Phillip Nova, highlighted the complex political landscape surrounding future monetary policy. She emphasised the uncertainty generated by potential political transitions, particularly with speculation about former President Donald Trump's potential return to office on 20 January.

"There is a prevailing narrative that Trump's policies may lead to inflation," Sachdeva explained. "Coupled with concerns about potential interference with the Federal Reserve's autonomy, this is causing oil investors to remain particularly cautious."

The geopolitical landscape continues to influence oil market dynamics. The European Union recently adopted its 15th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting the country's maritime infrastructure. These new measures include sanctioning an additional 33 vessels from Russia's shadow fleet used for crude and petroleum product transportation. The United Kingdom has similarly sanctioned 20 ships engaged in transporting illicit Russian oil.

Despite the increasing sanctions, international observers note that these measures have thus far failed to significantly disrupt Russia's global oil trade, maintaining a degree of market uncertainty.

Domestic energy data provides additional context for market movements. The American Petroleum Institute reported a significant reduction in crude stocks, with a decrease of 4.69 million barrels in the week ending 13 December. Simultaneously, gasoline inventories increased by 2.45 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 744,000 barrels.

Analysts participating in a Reuters poll projected that United States energy firms would extract approximately 1.6 million barrels from storage during the same period. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its official oil storage data on Wednesday, which could potentially influence market sentiment.

Yeap Jun Rong suggested that oil prices are likely to remain constrained within their current range, with subdued price action anticipated through the year's conclusion. This forecast reflects the complex interplay of monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and global economic uncertainties.

Oil prices experienced a modest uptick on Wednesday, with investors maintaining a cautious stance ahead of the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision and ongoing geopolitical developments affecting global energy markets.

Oil prices experienced a modest uptick on Wednesday, with investors maintaining a cautious stance ahead of the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision and ongoing geopolitical developments affecting global energy markets. Brent crude futures increased by 32 cents, representing a 0.44% rise to USD 73.51 per barrel, while United States West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 32 cents, a 0.46% increase to USD 70.40 per barrel. Market analysts are closely monitoring the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting, with particular attention focused on potential interest rate strategies for 2025. Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG, noted that while additional Western sanctions might limit potential losses, a cautious market sentiment prevails leading up to the FOMC gathering. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to implement its third interest rate cut since initiating its policy easing cycle. Lower interest rates traditionally decrease borrowing costs, potentially stimulating economic growth and subsequently increasing oil demand. Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst with Phillip Nova, highlighted the complex political landscape surrounding future monetary policy. She emphasised the uncertainty generated by potential political transitions, particularly with speculation about former President Donald Trump's potential return to office on 20 January. "There is a prevailing narrative that Trump's policies may lead to inflation," Sachdeva explained. "Coupled with concerns about potential interference with the Federal Reserve's autonomy, this is causing oil investors to remain particularly cautious." The geopolitical landscape continues to influence oil market dynamics. The European Union recently adopted its 15th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting the country's maritime infrastructure. These new measures include sanctioning an additional 33 vessels from Russia's shadow fleet used for crude and petroleum product transportation. The United Kingdom has similarly sanctioned 20 ships engaged in transporting illicit Russian oil. Despite the increasing sanctions, international observers note that these measures have thus far failed to significantly disrupt Russia's global oil trade, maintaining a degree of market uncertainty. Domestic energy data provides additional context for market movements. The American Petroleum Institute reported a significant reduction in crude stocks, with a decrease of 4.69 million barrels in the week ending 13 December. Simultaneously, gasoline inventories increased by 2.45 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 744,000 barrels. Analysts participating in a Reuters poll projected that United States energy firms would extract approximately 1.6 million barrels from storage during the same period. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its official oil storage data on Wednesday, which could potentially influence market sentiment. Yeap Jun Rong suggested that oil prices are likely to remain constrained within their current range, with subdued price action anticipated through the year's conclusion. This forecast reflects the complex interplay of monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and global economic uncertainties.

Whether you like it or not, global oil price fluctuations affect you. You feel the pinch in your pocket when they're up. But what causes the rise and fall of oil prices?

What makes global oil prices go up and down?

Oil prices rose about 2 per cent on Monday as markets tightened ahead of Washington's new sanctions against Iran, with some traders forecasting a spike in crude to $100 per barrel.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/iran-urges-opec-rebuff-threats-trump-167284">Also Read:&nbsp;Iran urges OPEC to rebuff 'threats' from Trump</a>

Brent crude futures jumped to the highest level since May at $80.43 per barrel, and were up $1.57, or 2 per cent, at $80.37 per barrel at 0642 GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.28, or 1.8 per cent, to $72.06 a barrel.

Amid a tightening market, US commercial crude oil inventories are at their lowest level since early 2015. And while output remains around the record of 11 million barrels per day (bpd), recent subdued US drilling activity points towards a slowdown.

Commodity merchants Trafigura and Mercuria said on Monday that Brent could rise to $90 per barrel by Christmas and pass $100 in early 2019 as markets tighten once US sanctions against Iran are implemented from November.

J.P. Morgan expects sanctions could lead to a loss of 1.5 million bpd, while Mercuria warned that as much as 2 million bpd could be knocked out of the market.

The Middle East dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as well as top producer Russia, are discussing raising output to counter falling supply from Iran, although no decision has been made public yet.

"We expect that those OPEC countries with available spare capacity, led by Saudi Arabia, will increase output but not completely offset the drop in Iranian barrels," said Edward Bell, commodity analyst at Emirates NBD bank.

J.P. Morgan said in its latest market outlook, published on Friday, that "a spike to $90 per barrel is likely" for oil prices in the coming months due to the Iran sanctions.

The bank said it expects Brent and WTI to average $85 and $76 per barrel, respectively, over the next six months.

Struggling with high feedstock crude prices and record lows for the rupee against the dollar, Indian refiners are preparing to cut back crude imports and instead use up commercial inventories.

Oil prices rose about 2 per cent on Monday as markets tightened ahead of Washington's new sanctions against Iran, with some traders forecasting a spike in crude to $100 per barrel.

Oil prices rose about 2 per cent on Monday as markets tightened ahead of Washington's new sanctions against Iran, with some traders forecasting a spike in crude to $100 per barrel. Also Read: Iran urges OPEC to rebuff 'threats' from Trump Brent crude futures jumped to the highest level since May at $80.43 per barrel, and were up $1.57, or 2 per cent, at $80.37 per barrel at 0642 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.28, or 1.8 per cent, to $72.06 a barrel. Amid a tightening market, US commercial crude oil inventories are at their lowest level since early 2015. And while output remains around the record of 11 million barrels per day (bpd), recent subdued US drilling activity points towards a slowdown. Commodity merchants Trafigura and Mercuria said on Monday that Brent could rise to $90 per barrel by Christmas and pass $100 in early 2019 as markets tighten once US sanctions against Iran are implemented from November. J.P. Morgan expects sanctions could lead to a loss of 1.5 million bpd, while Mercuria warned that as much as 2 million bpd could be knocked out of the market. The Middle East dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as well as top producer Russia, are discussing raising output to counter falling supply from Iran, although no decision has been made public yet. "We expect that those OPEC countries with available spare capacity, led by Saudi Arabia, will increase output but not completely offset the drop in Iranian barrels," said Edward Bell, commodity analyst at Emirates NBD bank. J.P. Morgan said in its latest market outlook, published on Friday, that "a spike to $90 per barrel is likely" for oil prices in the coming months due to the Iran sanctions. The bank said it expects Brent and WTI to average $85 and $76 per barrel, respectively, over the next six months. Struggling with high feedstock crude prices and record lows for the rupee against the dollar, Indian refiners are preparing to cut back crude imports and instead use up commercial inventories.

Ahead of Iran sanctions, crude oil prices jump

The benchmark Sensex slumped 300 points to end at 34,848.30 today on across-the-board selling amid political uncertainty in Karnataka and negative global cues.

The broader NSE Nifty too cracked below the 10,600-level.

No let-up in selling by foreign funds and surging crude oil prices in global markets dragged down the key indices.

Investors remained on the sidelines amid doubts whether the B S Yeddyurappa government in Karnataka will be able to prove its majority in the house tomorrow, brokers said.

The Supreme Court today ordered a floor test in the Karnataka Assembly at 4 PM tomorrow, reducing the 15-day window given by the Governor to Yeddyurappa to prove majority.

Yeddyurappa was sworn-in as the chief minister yesterday.

Falling for the fourth straight session, the 30-share Sensex opened lower and stayed in the negative terrain for the major part of the session, hitting a low of 34,821.62 before ending at 34,848.30 - down by 300.82 points, or 0.86 per cent.&nbsp

The barometer had lost 407.59 points in the previous three sessions.

The 50-share NSE Nifty settled 86.30 points, or 0.81 per cent, lower at 10,596.40. During the session, it moved between 10,589.10 and 10,674.95.

During the week, the Sensex lost 687.49 points, or 1.93 per cent, while the Nifty dropped 210.10 points, or 1.94 per cent.&nbspState-run banks remained under selling pressure on disappointing quarterly results due to a jump in provisions for bad loans. 
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The barometer had lost 407.59 points in the previous three sessions.

The benchmark Sensex slumped 300 points to end at 34,848.30 today on across-the-board selling amid political uncertainty in Karnataka and negative global cues. The broader NSE Nifty too cracked below the 10,600-level. No let-up in selling by foreign funds and surging crude oil prices in global markets dragged down the key indices. Investors remained on the sidelines amid doubts whether the B S Yeddyurappa government in Karnataka will be able to prove its majority in the house tomorrow, brokers said. The Supreme Court today ordered a floor test in the Karnataka Assembly at 4 PM tomorrow, reducing the 15-day window given by the Governor to Yeddyurappa to prove majority. Yeddyurappa was sworn-in as the chief minister yesterday. Falling for the fourth straight session, the 30-share Sensex opened lower and stayed in the negative terrain for the major part of the session, hitting a low of 34,821.62 before ending at 34,848.30 - down by 300.82 points, or 0.86 per cent. The barometer had lost 407.59 points in the previous three sessions. The 50-share NSE Nifty settled 86.30 points, or 0.81 per cent, lower at 10,596.40. During the session, it moved between 10,589.10 and 10,674.95. During the week, the Sensex lost 687.49 points, or 1.93 per cent, while the Nifty dropped 210.10 points, or 1.94 per cent.&nbspState-run banks remained under selling pressure on disappointing quarterly results due to a jump in provisions for bad loans.

Karnataka effect: Sensex closes 300 points down

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has supported attempts to stabilise the global oil market and raise prices, the Iranian oil ministry&#39;s SHANA news agency reported.&nbsp; 
 
&quot;Instability and falling oil prices are harmful to all countries, especially oil producers,&quot; SHANA quoted Rouhani as saying. 
 
&quot;Tehran welcomes any move aimed at market stability and improvement of oil prices based on justice, fairness and fair quota of all the oil producers,&quot; the president said, referring to a meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers in Algeria next week, SHANA said. 
 
Rouhani, who is in Venezuela for the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) Summit, was holding talks with the Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa, SHANA reported.&nbsp; 
 
Tehran had earlier refused to join a previous attempt this year by OPEC and non-members such as Russia to stabilise production, and talks collapsed in April. 
 
Iran is OPEC&#39;s third-largest producer and has been boosting its oil output after the lifting of Western sanctions in January. 
 
OPEC members are set to meet on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum (IEF), which groups producers and consumers, in Algeria on September &nbsp;26-28. with Non-OPEC producer Russia also attending. 
 
OPEC might revive talks on freezing oil production levels when it meets non-OPEC nations in Algeria, Reuters reported. 
 
Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to cooperate in oil markets earlier this month, saying they could limit future output. 
 
The OPEC secretary general Mohammed Barkindo, however, appeared to play down suggestions of a major agreement by saying the Algiers meeting would be an informal meeting for consultations and not for decision making, Algerian state news agency APS reported on Saturday. 
 
(WION with inputs from Reuters)

Tehran had earlier refused to join OPEC and non-members like Russia in their attempt to stabilise oil production levels

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has supported attempts to stabilise the global oil market and raise prices, the Iranian oil ministry's SHANA news agency reported. "Instability and falling oil prices are harmful to all countries, especially oil producers," SHANA quoted Rouhani as saying. "Tehran welcomes any move aimed at market stability and improvement of oil prices based on justice, fairness and fair quota of all the oil producers," the president said, referring to a meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers in Algeria next week, SHANA said. Rouhani, who is in Venezuela for the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) Summit, was holding talks with the Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa, SHANA reported. Tehran had earlier refused to join a previous attempt this year by OPEC and non-members such as Russia to stabilise production, and talks collapsed in April. Iran is OPEC's third-largest producer and has been boosting its oil output after the lifting of Western sanctions in January. OPEC members are set to meet on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum (IEF), which groups producers and consumers, in Algeria on September 26-28. with Non-OPEC producer Russia also attending. OPEC might revive talks on freezing oil production levels when it meets non-OPEC nations in Algeria, Reuters reported. Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to cooperate in oil markets earlier this month, saying they could limit future output. The OPEC secretary general Mohammed Barkindo, however, appeared to play down suggestions of a major agreement by saying the Algiers meeting would be an informal meeting for consultations and not for decision making, Algerian state news agency APS reported on Saturday. (WION with inputs from Reuters)

Iran backs calibration of global oil market