Donald Trump is reportedly doubling down on his idea of buying Greenland, even considering proposals that could affect residents directly. The plan has sparked international attention, debates over sovereignty, and reactions from Greenland’s population. 

How Trump's Greenland Bet Could Reshape Geopolitics

India achieved a major economic milestone in 2025, overtaking Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy. According to the government’s end-of-year economic review, strong domestic growth, resilient consumption, and strategic policy decisions helped India advance despite global geopolitical tensions. This segment explores what fueled India’s rise and what it means for the global economic order.

India's Economic Ascent In 2025 Despite Geopolitical Tensions

Gold has re-emerged as a strategic geopolitical asset as nations seek protection from sanctions, inflation and dollar risk. Record central bank buying, BRICS de-dollarisation and frozen reserves have made gold a sanctions-resistant store of value reshaping global finance.

Gold has re-emerged as a strategic geopolitical asset as nations seek protection from sanctions, inflation and dollar risk. Record central bank buying, BRICS de-dollarisation and frozen reserves have made gold a sanctions-resistant store of value reshaping global finance.

Gold and geopolitics: Why countries hoard the metal

A new report by Defense One claims that an unreleased, longer version of the U.S. National Security Strategy outlines a dramatic shift in Washington’s approach to Europe. 
The document allegedly proposes weakening the European Union by courting four countries with like-minded, presumably right-wing, administrations and movements.  

Trump Wants to Destroy the European Union | Explosive Leak Claims Plot to Break EU From Within 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reaffirmed that India–Russia ties are “rooted in history” and have withstood the test of time. As geopolitical alignments shift globally, Putin’s remarks underscore the depth of the strategic partnership — from defence and energy to space cooperation and long-standing diplomatic trust. 


'India-Russia Ties, Rooted In History': President Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump are meeting in Alaska for a high-stakes summit on the war in Ukraine. But what’s catching global attention is the intrigue around where—and how—they’re meeting. Reports hint the leaders may hold private talks inside Putin’s luxurious, high-security Il-96-300PU presidential jet. No interpreters were seen, and the two rode in the same limo: Sparking speculation over what’s being discussed behind closed doors.

Is this a step toward peace or a geopolitical power play?

Trump-Putin meet | Putin’s flying palace & Trump’s bold gamble: Inside the Alaska summit 

Throughout history, humans have fought wars over power, resources, and wealth. But the next major source of geopolitical conflict could revolve around a commodity that seems plentiful for now: water.

Future Water Crisis: Are We Facing A Global Surge In Water Prices?

Humans have waged wars for power, resources and riches. However, the next big flashpoint in geopolitical tensions could be a commodity that is abundantly available at the moment. This report delves into the details.

Water, the next big flashpoint in Geopolitics?

A $2 trillion reckoning is on the horizon as global ports become pawns in geopolitics. The entry points to international trade must undergo expensive renovations to adapt to the new age of competition, automation, and renewable energy.

Global ports become pawns in geopolitics  | World Business Watch | WION

The significance of President Xi Jinping’s three-nation tour of Europe (3–10 May) covering discussions with the leaders of France, EU, Serbia, and Hungary transcends China-Europe relations.

The significance of President Xi Jinping’s three-nation tour of Europe (3–10 May) covering discussions with the leaders of France, EU, Serbia, and Hungary transcends China-Europe relations. It has important implications for relations among the major powers. Though caught up with the historic elections, India needs to assess the impact of this visit on its interests carefully. The Chinese president’s last visit to Europe was in March 2019, which took him to Italy and France. The world has changed much in the past five years. The Covid pandemic, the US-China rivalry, the India-China border clash, the wars in Ukraine and West Asia, Italy’s withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and China's economic and political woes have all combined to turn the geopolitics upside down. As the US presidential elections slowly advance to a climax in November and the likelihood of Trump 2.0 gains salience, China seemed set to woo friends in Europe seeking to neutralise its growing criticism. This trip is also a precursor to the two upcoming developments: the Russian President’s visit to China later in May, and the US President’s participation in the G7 summit in Italy in mid-June. Talks in Paris Gabriel Attal, 35, the youngest French Prime Minister in history, receiving Xi at Orly Airport in Paris presented a gripping opening scene of the Euro-tour: a fresh-faced host eager to please, and a seasoned international figure, aged 70, keen to impress the world. Another memory that may linger on was of the Chinese President lecturing top European leaders – French President Emmanuel Macron and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (VDL) about the value of ‘strategic communication’ and more. Discussions in Paris covered a host of political and economic questions, but what drew the maximum attention was the EU’s unhappiness over China's trade and economic policies. EU-China daily trade volume is around EUR 2.3 billion, but the economic relationship is stressed “through state-induced over capacity, unequal market access and over dependencies,” as VDL put it. Hence, a strong plea was made for a more balanced trade amidst reports of investigations by the European side of certain Chinese industrial sectors such as electric vehicle exports, and Chinese investigations of mostly French-made brandy imports. Experts concluded that China seemed unwilling to offer substantive concessions. This compelled VDL to state at a subsequent press conference that “Europe will not waiver from making tough decisions to protect its markets.” This assertive reaction revealed the signs of subtle coordination between the EU and the US regarding their common dissatisfaction with Beijing on access issues. EU’s depiction since 2019 of China as a “systemic rival” remains valid. Executing its own pushback, the Chinese side conveyed that the perception of China's over-capacity was baseless when judged by the yardsticks of comparative advantage and global demand. On trade issues, the intra-Europe rift is quite well-known: while France favours a tough approach, Germany – ever sensitive to the needs of its big car manufacturers – prefers caution. Also Read: Macron prioritises trade and Ukraine talks as China’s Xi Jinping visits France On Ukraine, the French president played his familiar tune urging Xi to use his influence with Moscow to move it towards a negotiated settlement. This was in sharp contrast to what Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, bluntly conveyed to China recently: that it must stop the supply of dual-use technology products to Russia that threatens European security, or the US would take suitable counter-measures. The Chinese president urged France to assert its independence, as China does, and help it prevent a new cold war. Paris agrees, but its inability to revive the Franco-German combine as the engine for a strong Europe and Macron’s domestic troubles remain serious constraints for European independence. Moreover, the two-year-old war has made Europe even more dependent on the US. A greater convergence was noted about the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Xi Jinping termed the war “a tragedy” and “a test of human conscience.” Macron asserted that France and China shared “the same goals,” namely to achieve an immediate ceasefire to release hostages, protect the population, facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid, encourage a regional de-escalation, and re-open a political perspective. However, the disconnect between such lofty pronouncements and the unfolding ugly reality of continued violence in Gaza is striking. Serbia and Hungary Xi Jinping’s discussions in more friendly countries – Serbia and Hungary – achieved greater success. As a huge crowd assembled before the presidential palace in Belgrade greeted the visiting dignitary chanting, “China, China,” Aleksandar Vučić, President of Serbia, asserted, “We are writing history today.” He underlined the significance of the 29 agreements signed for promoting economic and other cooperation. Xi recalled that Serbia became China's first strategic partner in central and eastern Europe. It agreed to build “a community of shared future” with China. The two leaders were resolved to “jointly confront hegemony and the politics of power.” On key political issues, the two nations stood together. Serbia supports China's position on Taiwan and China supports Serbia’s efforts to preserve the territorial integrity regarding Kosovo. Watch: Xi's Europe visit: Way to charm or divide? | Is Chinese President creating wedge between West & US? Spending two nights in Hungary, the last stop of his tour, the Chinese President witnessed the signing of 16 bilateral agreements. Hungary was the first EU member-state to join BRI. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Xi Jinping focused on deepening economic cooperation, including cooperation “in the full spectrum” of the nuclear industry. They articulated a similar position on Ukraine. Budapest favours China taking a leading role as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine and has expressed its support for China's proposed peace plan. In a public letter to Orbán, Xi stressed the importance of China-EU relations, asserting that their cooperation was greater than the competition and there was more agreement than disagreement. Assessment While the Chinese visit will be dissected thoroughly in foreign ministries and think tanks around the world, it is possible to draw a few tentative conclusions as the visit ends. One, China's status as the world’s second-largest economy and the No. 2 power stands affirmed. The EU, despite its divisions and weaknesses, remains drawn to the lure of the Chinese market and investments. Hence the endeavours to keep the two sides broadly on the same page are set to continue. Two, China and Europe belong to two opposite ends of the geopolitical spectrum: the former, with Russia, forms the East, and the latter, with the US and others, forms the West. The East-West mix of cooperation, competition and confrontation will go on unabated. It may assume a sharper edge following the forthcoming Russia-China and G7 summits. Three, China will continue to accentuate the US-Europe divergences and intra-EU differences to improve its position in the fluctuating balance of power. Four, the two camps, though powerful, show their utter powerlessness in ending the raging wars and re-establishing peace. This demonstrates the failure of international diplomacy and leadership. Finally, three takeaways for India may be identified. First, after the elections, New Delhi should inject more creativity and energy into building up its strategic partnership with all G7 nations, while managing the differences with some of them such as the US, Canada and the EU. Second, it must continue consolidating solid cooperation and trust with Russia. Third, it may examine its options for introducing some resilience in India-China relations because a reset of some kind can expand India's manoeuvrability in dealing with the great powers. As Xi Jinping returns home, he leaves much work to be done in many capitals including New Delhi. (Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

With Xi Jinping in Europe, China plays geopolitics

India has privatised space launches and is aiming for a five-fold increase in its share of the global launch market, which some expect to be worth $47.3 billion by 2032. India currently accounts for about 2% of the space economy.

Space Race: India and China reach for the stars

From policymakers to the general public, everyone is hoping for a stable and growing economy in 2024.&nbsp;

The world has been in bad shape since 2020. To begin with, Covid-19 pandemic-related restrictions disrupted day-to-day economic activity. Later, the Ukraine war disrupted global supply chains and impacted commodity prices.

The twin blows contributed to a slowdown in 2023, with the world economy expected to grow by just three per cent.

Global economic projections for 2024, too, are not rosy. Global growth is expected to slow to 2.9 per cent, as per the International Monetary Fund.

"The global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, Ukraine war and the cost-of-living crisis. In retrospect, the resilience has been remarkable. Even so, growth remains slow and uneven, with widening divergences," writes academician Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas in an IMF blog.

A lot would depend on these five factors since they could make-or-break the world economy.

1) Rate cuts by the Fed &amp; other central banks

Everyone expects the US Fed to start cutting rates from April this year. The economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace, and inflation is closer to the Federal Reserve's 2 per cent target.

The US grew at 5.2 per cent in the July-September quarter - the fastest pace of expansion since the last three months of 2021. The annual inflation rate stood at 3.1 per cent at the end of November.

Many expect at least three rate cuts this year, with the monetary cycle likely to continue up to 2025-end. It is estimated that the Fed may go for at least a 2.5 per cent reduction in interest rates over the next 18-24 months.

The rate cuts are likely certain help the global economy, as spending and consumption will get a boost due to the easing monetary policy. This will also give thumbs up to other central banks to follow suit.

Apart from the US Fed, all eyes will be the actions taken by the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of India.

However, if inflation makes a comeback or tensions heighten in West Asia and East Asia, the US central bank may be forced to keep the rates steady or even raise them.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

2) Geopolitical tensions

The Ukraine war, tensions in West Asia, and the growing rivalry between the US and China have had a significant impact on the global economy in recent years.

These geopolitical events have disrupted economic activities, threatening to fragment global trade into smaller blocks, hamper supply chains, and increase prices of essential commodities.

These tensions will spill over to 2024 too.

"The current conflicts (in Ukraine and West Asia) appear to be long term. At best, they could cause volatility in oil markets. At worst, they could fragment the economy and trade system further," a recent Deutsche Bank analysis reads.

The rivalry between the US and China will be closely watched. Already locked in a trade war since 2018, any further escalation between the two biggest economies could drag global growth and make the world a less integrated place — ‘de-globalised’ in other words.

Any drastic action across the Taiwan straits will have global ramifications, with a particular impact on the semiconductor industry and the ongoing artificial intelligence boom.

More so, a 'black swan' event like the Ukraine war will add to the uncertainties.

3) Recession in advanced countries

Slower economic growth raises the fear of a prolonged recession in 2024.

However, the US – the world’s largest economy – likely to skip recession this year, after defying the odds in 2023.

Though that’s the general consensus, but some outliers believe that unemployment may rise in 2024. This, they argue, will have a ripple effect on consumer spending, leading to a recession.

But the Euro Zone, struggling for a while now, is unlikely to get lucky. Factory output has been declining for over 18 months now. The 20-member currency union will not only enter 2024 in technical recession but there is also a high possibility of long-term trouble for the economy.

The IMF's anticipates a slight recovery in 2024. But a lot would depend on the fine balancing act of curbing inflation – still way above the central bank’s target – and fueling growth.

Any rise in inflation – largely energy-driven – will keep prices elevated and growth in the negative territory.

The worst hit will be the United Kingdom, whose economy is on the cusp of a recession after shrinking in 2023. In fact, the Bank of England has warned of recession around the time of elections, likely to be held in mid-2024. The country is likely to see zero growth this year, irrespective of recession.

4) Growing debt burden

The debt burden is likely to remain a big concern, especially in the developing world.

Debt servicing costs will rise by 39 per cent for the 24 poorest countries this year, as per The World Bank.

The poorest countries face a huge $3.5 trillion debt burden. In the absence of any resolution mechanism, they could default.

As per reports, these countries, often dubbed 'frontier markets', will have to repay about $200 billion of debt in 2024.

This, in the words of Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist, will force developing countries to choice between servicing their public debts and investing in public health, education, and infrastructure.

The focus will be on the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund &amp; China – the biggest lenders. Any resolution to the debt crisis in 2024 will depend on these key players.

5) Elections around the world

Over half of humanity will go to polls, covering at least 40 countries. They represent half of the world’s Gross Domestic Product, raising the stakes for businesses.

India, the United States and the United Kingdom are among the major countries set to go to polls this year.

India is on track to be the third-biggest economy in the world and the markets are betting on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's third consecutive&nbsp;term.

In the US, a possible re-election of Donald Trump could push global trade – especially with China – into a tailspin.

Across the Atlantic, all eyes will be on the Labour party, which is tipped to win the UK elections amid the economic crisis.

Any expected or unexpected political changes will have economic implications for the world.

<o:p></o:p>

From policymakers to the general public, everyone is hoping for a stable and growing economy in 2024. The world has been in bad shape since 2020. To begin with, Covid-19 pandemic-related restrictions disrupted day-to-day economic activity.

From policymakers to the general public, everyone is hoping for a stable and growing economy in 2024. The world has been in bad shape since 2020. To begin with, Covid-19 pandemic-related restrictions disrupted day-to-day economic activity. Later, the Ukraine war disrupted global supply chains and impacted commodity prices. The twin blows contributed to a slowdown in 2023, with the world economy expected to grow by just three per cent. Global economic projections for 2024, too, are not rosy. Global growth is expected to slow to 2.9 per cent, as per the International Monetary Fund. "The global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, Ukraine war and the cost-of-living crisis. In retrospect, the resilience has been remarkable. Even so, growth remains slow and uneven, with widening divergences," writes academician Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas in an IMF blog. A lot would depend on these five factors since they could make-or-break the world economy. 1) Rate cuts by the Fed & other central banks Everyone expects the US Fed to start cutting rates from April this year. The economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace, and inflation is closer to the Federal Reserve's 2 per cent target. The US grew at 5.2 per cent in the July-September quarter - the fastest pace of expansion since the last three months of 2021. The annual inflation rate stood at 3.1 per cent at the end of November. Many expect at least three rate cuts this year, with the monetary cycle likely to continue up to 2025-end. It is estimated that the Fed may go for at least a 2.5 per cent reduction in interest rates over the next 18-24 months. The rate cuts are likely certain help the global economy, as spending and consumption will get a boost due to the easing monetary policy. This will also give thumbs up to other central banks to follow suit. Apart from the US Fed, all eyes will be the actions taken by the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of India. However, if inflation makes a comeback or tensions heighten in West Asia and East Asia, the US central bank may be forced to keep the rates steady or even raise them. 2) Geopolitical tensions The Ukraine war, tensions in West Asia, and the growing rivalry between the US and China have had a significant impact on the global economy in recent years. These geopolitical events have disrupted economic activities, threatening to fragment global trade into smaller blocks, hamper supply chains, and increase prices of essential commodities. These tensions will spill over to 2024 too. "The current conflicts (in Ukraine and West Asia) appear to be long term. At best, they could cause volatility in oil markets. At worst, they could fragment the economy and trade system further," a recent Deutsche Bank analysis reads. The rivalry between the US and China will be closely watched. Already locked in a trade war since 2018, any further escalation between the two biggest economies could drag global growth and make the world a less integrated place — ‘de-globalised’ in other words. Any drastic action across the Taiwan straits will have global ramifications, with a particular impact on the semiconductor industry and the ongoing artificial intelligence boom. More so, a 'black swan' event like the Ukraine war will add to the uncertainties. 3) Recession in advanced countries Slower economic growth raises the fear of a prolonged recession in 2024. However, the US – the world’s largest economy – likely to skip recession this year, after defying the odds in 2023. Though that’s the general consensus, but some outliers believe that unemployment may rise in 2024. This, they argue, will have a ripple effect on consumer spending, leading to a recession. But the Euro Zone, struggling for a while now, is unlikely to get lucky. Factory output has been declining for over 18 months now. The 20-member currency union will not only enter 2024 in technical recession but there is also a high possibility of long-term trouble for the economy. The IMF's anticipates a slight recovery in 2024. But a lot would depend on the fine balancing act of curbing inflation – still way above the central bank’s target – and fueling growth. Any rise in inflation – largely energy-driven – will keep prices elevated and growth in the negative territory. The worst hit will be the United Kingdom, whose economy is on the cusp of a recession after shrinking in 2023. In fact, the Bank of England has warned of recession around the time of elections, likely to be held in mid-2024. The country is likely to see zero growth this year, irrespective of recession. 4) Growing debt burden The debt burden is likely to remain a big concern, especially in the developing world. Debt servicing costs will rise by 39 per cent for the 24 poorest countries this year, as per The World Bank. The poorest countries face a huge $3.5 trillion debt burden. In the absence of any resolution mechanism, they could default. As per reports, these countries, often dubbed 'frontier markets', will have to repay about $200 billion of debt in 2024. This, in the words of Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist, will force developing countries to choice between servicing their public debts and investing in public health, education, and infrastructure. The focus will be on the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund & China – the biggest lenders. Any resolution to the debt crisis in 2024 will depend on these key players. 5) Elections around the world Over half of humanity will go to polls, covering at least 40 countries. They represent half of the world’s Gross Domestic Product, raising the stakes for businesses. India, the United States and the United Kingdom are among the major countries set to go to polls this year. India is on track to be the third-biggest economy in the world and the markets are betting on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's third consecutive term. In the US, a possible re-election of Donald Trump could push global trade – especially with China – into a tailspin. Across the Atlantic, all eyes will be on the Labour party, which is tipped to win the UK elections amid the economic crisis. Any expected or unexpected political changes will have economic implications for the world.

2024 Economic Outlook: 5 key things to watch out this year

It's the age of the Indo-Pacific we all know that the 21st century is the century of the Indo-Pacific. The US bet on India hinges on what India can become for itself when you disrupt the stable geopolitical base. To know more watch this Global Technological Summit- Session 4 on Sunday at 6:30pm IST | 1pm GMT.

Global Technology Summit | Geopolitics Today: Shifting Sands or Structural Transformation?

The Global Technology Summit brings together industry experts, policymakers, scientists, and other stakeholders from all over the world to deliberate on the changing nature of technology and geopolitics. In this session, we discuss about the use of tech in war-fighting concepts.

8th edition of Global Technology Summit on the changing nature of geopolitics takes place in Delhi

This year has not been kind to the global economy. The Ukraine war led to soaring global inflation, forcing central banks to hike interest rates to highs not seen in decades. Geopolitical tensions between China and the United States have raised the spectre of trade fragmenting among allied blocks.

The disruption caused by Covid lockdowns continues to have lingering effects, seen via China's lacklustre growth and the rising debt burden. Add the ongoing tensions in West Asia to this mix, and the world has enough reasons to worry.

The world will welcome 2024 in a couple of weeks. But expectations of a brighter future may be far-fetched if Moody's latest outlook on 2024 is considered.

Moody's Global Macro Outlook 2024-25 suggests that the world economy will slow in 2024 as high-interest rates "percolate through credit channels to the real economy".

This means households would only feel the true impact of the high interest rates next year.

While the high-interest rates may help central banks reduce inflation, it won't be by the end of 2025 that prices will come under the tolerance limits of G-20 central banks.

Conversely, consumer demand will weaken in 2024 as central banks will likely maintain a tight policy stance. However, the report cautions policymakers about climate uncertainties or geopolitical events triggering volatility in energy and food prices in 2024.

The report particularly focuses on the G-20 nations, which account for at least 80 per cent of the world's Gross Domestic Product, 75 per cent of global trade, and two-thirds of the total population.

Moody's expects growth in the G20 countries to fall to 2.1 per cent in 2024 from 2.8 per cent in 2023. However, the pace of growth would be different across all the member nations.

Economic growth would fall from 1.7 per cent in 2023 to just one per cent in advanced G-20 economies -- these are also OECD members.

The growth in emerging markets of the G20 would fall from 4.3 per cent in 2023 to 3.7 per cent next year. But the true story lies in the fine print.

Economic growth will moderate in the United States while remaining "subdued" in the 20-nation euro zone area. China's economy- the world's second-biggest- is likely to decelerate from its 5 percent growth target in 2023 to 4 percent in 2024.

However, China's emerging rivals like India, Mexico and Indonesia will likely show resilience next year. In fact, at 6.1 per cent, India is expected to be the fastest-growing economy among the G20 nations.

The outlook is more complicated in South Africa, Türkiye, and Argentina, which are facing a prolonged economic downturn.

"South Africa's economy remains vulnerable to rolling power cuts, curtailing the productive capacity of the economy," says the report, while noting the uncertain economic outlooks for Türkiye and Argentina.

Türkiye's economy is expected to slow to 2.6 per cent in 2024, with inflation likely to recede slowly to 60% in 2024. But everything would hinge on a tighter monetary policy and the lira's stability.

Argentina's economy will be a mystery waiting to be unravelled in 2024. A lot would depend upon how the incoming Libertarian maverick Javier Milei responds to the South American country's economic challenges.

Geopolitical risks like the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the ongoing tensions between the US and China will be sources of uncertainty for the global economy next year.

If the ongoing conflict in Gaza spills over to the larger West Asia region, the world may see higher volatility in oil and gas prices.

"We expect oil prices to remain volatile in the $80-$90 per barrel range and periodically overshoot $90 due to increased geopolitical uncertainty," the report adds.

After the US ' export restrictions on semiconductors, China's tit-for-tat measure to impose export controls on graphite underscores the threat of trade tensions disrupting the global supply of critical materials.

But the tensions can also end up helping other emerging economies to emerge as supply chain hubs, with India, Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia "well-positioned to take advantage of this shift".

This year has not been kind to the global economy. The Ukraine war led to soaring global inflation, forcing central banks to hike interest rates to highs not seen in decades.

This year has not been kind to the global economy. The Ukraine war led to soaring global inflation, forcing central banks to hike interest rates to highs not seen in decades. Geopolitical tensions between China and the United States have raised the spectre of trade fragmenting among allied blocks. The disruption caused by Covid lockdowns continues to have lingering effects, seen via China's lacklustre growth and the rising debt burden. Add the ongoing tensions in West Asia to this mix, and the world has enough reasons to worry. The world will welcome 2024 in a couple of weeks. But expectations of a brighter future may be far-fetched if Moody's latest outlook on 2024 is considered. Moody's Global Macro Outlook 2024-25 suggests that the world economy will slow in 2024 as high-interest rates "percolate through credit channels to the real economy". This means households would only feel the true impact of the high interest rates next year. While the high-interest rates may help central banks reduce inflation, it won't be by the end of 2025 that prices will come under the tolerance limits of G-20 central banks. Conversely, consumer demand will weaken in 2024 as central banks will likely maintain a tight policy stance. However, the report cautions policymakers about climate uncertainties or geopolitical events triggering volatility in energy and food prices in 2024. The report particularly focuses on the G-20 nations, which account for at least 80 per cent of the world's Gross Domestic Product, 75 per cent of global trade, and two-thirds of the total population. Moody's expects growth in the G20 countries to fall to 2.1 per cent in 2024 from 2.8 per cent in 2023. However, the pace of growth would be different across all the member nations. Economic growth would fall from 1.7 per cent in 2023 to just one per cent in advanced G-20 economies -- these are also OECD members. The growth in emerging markets of the G20 would fall from 4.3 per cent in 2023 to 3.7 per cent next year. But the true story lies in the fine print. Economic growth will moderate in the United States while remaining "subdued" in the 20-nation euro zone area. China's economy- the world's second-biggest- is likely to decelerate from its 5 percent growth target in 2023 to 4 percent in 2024. However, China's emerging rivals like India, Mexico and Indonesia will likely show resilience next year. In fact, at 6.1 per cent, India is expected to be the fastest-growing economy among the G20 nations. The outlook is more complicated in South Africa, Türkiye, and Argentina, which are facing a prolonged economic downturn. "South Africa's economy remains vulnerable to rolling power cuts, curtailing the productive capacity of the economy," says the report, while noting the uncertain economic outlooks for Türkiye and Argentina. Türkiye's economy is expected to slow to 2.6 per cent in 2024, with inflation likely to recede slowly to 60% in 2024. But everything would hinge on a tighter monetary policy and the lira's stability. Argentina's economy will be a mystery waiting to be unravelled in 2024. A lot would depend upon how the incoming Libertarian maverick Javier Milei responds to the South American country's economic challenges. Geopolitical risks like the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the ongoing tensions between the US and China will be sources of uncertainty for the global economy next year. If the ongoing conflict in Gaza spills over to the larger West Asia region, the world may see higher volatility in oil and gas prices. "We expect oil prices to remain volatile in the $80-$90 per barrel range and periodically overshoot $90 due to increased geopolitical uncertainty," the report adds. After the US ' export restrictions on semiconductors, China's tit-for-tat measure to impose export controls on graphite underscores the threat of trade tensions disrupting the global supply of critical materials. But the tensions can also end up helping other emerging economies to emerge as supply chain hubs, with India, Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia "well-positioned to take advantage of this shift".

2024 Outlook: Slow growth, elevated inflation & geopolitical tensions to keep the world economy on its toes

The New Delhi summit of the Group of Twenty (G20) may be remembered by historians for a variety of reasons. The summit was preceded by about 200 events held in different parts of India, thus turning the Indian presidency into the ‘People’s Presidency.’ Notably, two major leaders – President Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping – were absent from the summit. Ukraine cast a dark shadow on the negotiations for consensus on the outcome document. The grouping went for its first-ever expansion to admit the African Union (AU) as a member. Finally, proving all pessimists wrong, the sherpas of the leaders, led by India, managed to pull off a diplomatic coup, drawing global admiration for a substantial New Delhi Declaration. It was backed by a ‘100%’ consensus.

This short article attempts to dissect the geopolitical implications of the prelude to the summit, its deliberations and outcomes, and the future prospects of great power relations.

<h1>The Big Four</h1>

The US, the European Community (EU), China and Russia have traditionally been the key players in the multipolar world ever since America’s ‘unipolar moment’ began to give way from the early years of this century. Relations among the Big Four came under exceptional stress following the outbreak of the Ukraine war. Experts agreed that it was not only an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but it was also a conflict and confrontation between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).

That China chose to play a dual role – of serving as a close ally of Russia while posing as a friendly mediator in the war, complicated matters further. Hence the Big Four approached the New Delhi summit with divergent perspectives and a shared desire to score points over each other.

Also read | <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/indias-eam-s-jaishankar-reveals-how-india-pulled-off-g20-joint-statement-diplomatic-success-635774">India's EAM S Jaishankar reveals how India pulled off G20 joint statement diplomatic success</a>

It goes to the credit of the Indian leadership that the real nature of geopolitical implications was understood fully. Right from the beginning of its presidency, India consciously chose to insulate G20 from the pressures generated by the war in Ukraine. It refused to invite President Volodymyr Zelensky&nbsp;of Ukraine to the New Delhi summit. Not even a digital address was acceptable, despite pressures from G7 nations.

India also made it clear that while it would not agree to any public condemnation of the Russian invasion, it could not deviate from a commitment to the UN principles on respect for territorial integrity and national sovereignty or political independence. The ‘Bali paragraphs’ that were severely imbalanced and critical of Russia had, therefore, to be updated and expanded to eight paragraphs. They saved the New Delhi summit and showed to both sides where to get off in the larger interest of humanity. India played the ultimate card, arguing convincingly that a united and effective G20 is in everyone’s interest, not just that of the host nation.

<h2>China factor</h2>

The manner in which India-China relations unfolded, particularly at the highest political level from the SCO summit in Samarkand (September 2022) to the BRICS summit in Johannesburg (August 2023) generated much concern about a likely disruptive role by the Chinese side in the build-up to the New Delhi summit. President Xi Jinping’s absence was seen by most observers as a negative signal. But the South Block, the seat of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) and the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), took it in its stride. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar noted that choosing the level of representation was the prerogative of every country.

Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/china-breaks-silence-g20-says-delhi-declaration-sent-positive-signal-635008">China breaks silence on G20, says Delhi Declaration sent 'positive signal'</a>

At the summit itself, China ended up playing a positive and constructive role, helping in the development of consensus on several delicate issues. China, said Jaishankar, was “supportive”. This author heard a senior Chinese diplomat stationed in Delhi state publicly this week that India deserved much appreciation for completing “a very difficult mission.” He added that “development” rather than “geopolitical issues” must guide the deliberations of G20. In short, despite serious bilateral issues, China showed willingness to recognise that the success of the New Delhi summit was desirable for it and for the emerging power balance in the region.

<h2>The Global South</h2>

A major trend at the G20 summit and in previous months was the steady emergence of the Global South as a significant factor in international politics. India played a crucial role in shaping this trend, which began last year in Bali when Indian diplomats helped Indonesia in crafting consensus on the Ukraine issue.

Noting the success of India’s contribution as the voice of the Global South, which was highlighted by the conference of the same name hosted by New Delhi in January 2023, Indonesia and other developing countries in G20 came forward when their valuable help was required. India fully acknowledged that Indonesia, Brazil, and South Africa helped in removing the bottlenecks in drafting the New Delhi Declaration. Later, they were joined by other countries such as Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye.

While there remained uncertainty until the end, the External Affairs Minister had told this author publicly, five days before the summit began, that he was “very, very confident” about the inclusion of AU as a member of the G20. In normal course, this decision would have been included in the joint communique, and then the AU representative may have joined the grouping at the next summit in 2024.

Also watch | Gravitas: The biggest Gaffes from the G20 summit

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
<div class="twitter-block" draggable="false">
<div class="videoWrapper trancodeVideo"><iframe allowfullscreen="" autoplay="1" class="includeVideo" frameborder="0" height="350" src="https://www.wionews.com/videos/gravitas-the-biggest-gaffes-from-the-g20-summit-635035/embed" style="width:100%;max-width:560px;" width="560"></iframe></div>
</div>
<a class="close-mark close-div" href="#" id="jqclosemark">×</a></div>

Instead, a brilliant strategy was adopted. In the very first few minutes of the opening session, the G20 president invited the Chairperson of AU to come forward and take his seat at the main table. This was truly decisive and purposeful action at the right time, demonstrating the significance of Africa and the Global South. India struck when the iron was hot!

Several experts noted that the West chose to go along with the proposed compromise concerning Ukraine because it did not want to lose the Global South. The latter has been suffering from the adverse consequences of the war and was keen on G20 to focus on its real agenda of economic development. New Delhi projected this perception convincingly and won the day.

<h2>Other facets</h2>

Much also happened outside the main G20 conference hall. On the sidelines, the Global Biofuels Alliance (GBA) was announced, grouping nine countries together including the U.S., India and Brazil, on 9 September. It is an initiative by India as “the G20 Chair.” Another major development was the announcement of the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

This is backed by the U.S., India, EU, Saudi Arabia, UAE and others. On IMEC, PM Modi observed that it would help promote the “economic integration between India and Europe.” These developments will have long term impact of geoeconomic and geopolitical nature. Besides, PM Modi held bilateral meetings with over a dozen G20 leaders, but not the Chinese Premier. These apart, the state visit of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, and a very important interaction between the U.S. President and the Indian PM, were part of the last week’s rich package.

The full magnitude of deliberations and decisions listed above will take time to sink in. They should be assessed fully through multiple academic events which are set to be arranged in New Delhi and elsewhere.

What can be said with some confidence is this: in Narendra Modi, the nation has, after a long gap, found a real ‘foreign policy PM’. He understands how the world works and is keen to expand India’s space in it. While ultimately interests do matter, personal relations built by the PM with world leaders over the years represent an asset of considerable value.

This has been backed by professional work of high quality by ministers, senior officials and a large number of people who contributed to the success of the G20 summit. They all – the Team India — deserve to be applauded and recognised for their role in ensuring that India re-emerges as a leading player on the world stage.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
<div class="twitter-block" draggable="false">
WATCH WION LIVE HERE

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="350" loading="”lazy”" src="https://www.wionews.com/live-tv/embed?autoplay=1&amp;mute=1" width="100%"></iframe>

You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us <a href="https://www.wionews.com/content-contribution-registration-form">here</a>.
</div>
<a class="close-mark close-div" href="#" id="jqclosemark">×</a></div>

&nbsp;

The New Delhi summit of the Group of Twenty (G20) may be remembered by historians for a variety of reasons. The summit was preceded by about 200 events held in different parts of India, thus turning the Indian presidency into the ‘People’s Presidency.

The New Delhi summit of the Group of Twenty (G20) may be remembered by historians for a variety of reasons. The summit was preceded by about 200 events held in different parts of India, thus turning the Indian presidency into the ‘People’s Presidency.’ Notably, two major leaders – President Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping – were absent from the summit. Ukraine cast a dark shadow on the negotiations for consensus on the outcome document. The grouping went for its first-ever expansion to admit the African Union (AU) as a member. Finally, proving all pessimists wrong, the sherpas of the leaders, led by India, managed to pull off a diplomatic coup, drawing global admiration for a substantial New Delhi Declaration. It was backed by a ‘100%’ consensus. This short article attempts to dissect the geopolitical implications of the prelude to the summit, its deliberations and outcomes, and the future prospects of great power relations. The Big Four The US, the European Community (EU), China and Russia have traditionally been the key players in the multipolar world ever since America’s ‘unipolar moment’ began to give way from the early years of this century. Relations among the Big Four came under exceptional stress following the outbreak of the Ukraine war. Experts agreed that it was not only an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but it was also a conflict and confrontation between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). That China chose to play a dual role – of serving as a close ally of Russia while posing as a friendly mediator in the war, complicated matters further. Hence the Big Four approached the New Delhi summit with divergent perspectives and a shared desire to score points over each other. Also read | India's EAM S Jaishankar reveals how India pulled off G20 joint statement diplomatic success It goes to the credit of the Indian leadership that the real nature of geopolitical implications was understood fully. Right from the beginning of its presidency, India consciously chose to insulate G20 from the pressures generated by the war in Ukraine. It refused to invite President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to the New Delhi summit. Not even a digital address was acceptable, despite pressures from G7 nations. India also made it clear that while it would not agree to any public condemnation of the Russian invasion, it could not deviate from a commitment to the UN principles on respect for territorial integrity and national sovereignty or political independence. The ‘Bali paragraphs’ that were severely imbalanced and critical of Russia had, therefore, to be updated and expanded to eight paragraphs. They saved the New Delhi summit and showed to both sides where to get off in the larger interest of humanity. India played the ultimate card, arguing convincingly that a united and effective G20 is in everyone’s interest, not just that of the host nation. China factor The manner in which India-China relations unfolded, particularly at the highest political level from the SCO summit in Samarkand (September 2022) to the BRICS summit in Johannesburg (August 2023) generated much concern about a likely disruptive role by the Chinese side in the build-up to the New Delhi summit. President Xi Jinping’s absence was seen by most observers as a negative signal. But the South Block, the seat of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) and the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), took it in its stride. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar noted that choosing the level of representation was the prerogative of every country. Also read | China breaks silence on G20, says Delhi Declaration sent 'positive signal' At the summit itself, China ended up playing a positive and constructive role, helping in the development of consensus on several delicate issues. China, said Jaishankar, was “supportive”. This author heard a senior Chinese diplomat stationed in Delhi state publicly this week that India deserved much appreciation for completing “a very difficult mission.” He added that “development” rather than “geopolitical issues” must guide the deliberations of G20. In short, despite serious bilateral issues, China showed willingness to recognise that the success of the New Delhi summit was desirable for it and for the emerging power balance in the region. The Global South A major trend at the G20 summit and in previous months was the steady emergence of the Global South as a significant factor in international politics. India played a crucial role in shaping this trend, which began last year in Bali when Indian diplomats helped Indonesia in crafting consensus on the Ukraine issue. Noting the success of India’s contribution as the voice of the Global South, which was highlighted by the conference of the same name hosted by New Delhi in January 2023, Indonesia and other developing countries in G20 came forward when their valuable help was required. India fully acknowledged that Indonesia, Brazil, and South Africa helped in removing the bottlenecks in drafting the New Delhi Declaration. Later, they were joined by other countries such as Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. While there remained uncertainty until the end, the External Affairs Minister had told this author publicly, five days before the summit began, that he was “very, very confident” about the inclusion of AU as a member of the G20. In normal course, this decision would have been included in the joint communique, and then the AU representative may have joined the grouping at the next summit in 2024. Also watch | Gravitas: The biggest Gaffes from the G20 summit × Instead, a brilliant strategy was adopted. In the very first few minutes of the opening session, the G20 president invited the Chairperson of AU to come forward and take his seat at the main table. This was truly decisive and purposeful action at the right time, demonstrating the significance of Africa and the Global South. India struck when the iron was hot! Several experts noted that the West chose to go along with the proposed compromise concerning Ukraine because it did not want to lose the Global South. The latter has been suffering from the adverse consequences of the war and was keen on G20 to focus on its real agenda of economic development. New Delhi projected this perception convincingly and won the day. Other facets Much also happened outside the main G20 conference hall. On the sidelines, the Global Biofuels Alliance (GBA) was announced, grouping nine countries together including the U.S., India and Brazil, on 9 September. It is an initiative by India as “the G20 Chair.” Another major development was the announcement of the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This is backed by the U.S., India, EU, Saudi Arabia, UAE and others. On IMEC, PM Modi observed that it would help promote the “economic integration between India and Europe.” These developments will have long term impact of geoeconomic and geopolitical nature. Besides, PM Modi held bilateral meetings with over a dozen G20 leaders, but not the Chinese Premier. These apart, the state visit of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, and a very important interaction between the U.S. President and the Indian PM, were part of the last week’s rich package. The full magnitude of deliberations and decisions listed above will take time to sink in. They should be assessed fully through multiple academic events which are set to be arranged in New Delhi and elsewhere. What can be said with some confidence is this: in Narendra Modi, the nation has, after a long gap, found a real ‘foreign policy PM’. He understands how the world works and is keen to expand India’s space in it. While ultimately interests do matter, personal relations built by the PM with world leaders over the years represent an asset of considerable value. This has been backed by professional work of high quality by ministers, senior officials and a large number of people who contributed to the success of the G20 summit. They all – the Team India — deserve to be applauded and recognised for their role in ensuring that India re-emerges as a leading player on the world stage. (Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.) WATCH WION LIVE HERE You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us here. ×

The geopolitics of G20 Summit

Technology is a force multiplier. Think of it as a cheat code in geopolitics. It helps you gain an advantage over your rivals. Technology is how a small island of a few million people forged the biggest empire in history. It's how the United States brought a swift end to the second world war.

You can match your rivals in courage and resolve. But not in technology. Every era is marked by a defining invention.

Today it's tiny chips.

The countries behind these inventions dominated world politics.

Rise of companies like Microsoft and Apple coincided with America's leadership of a unipolar world. A world that China is looking to topple.&nbsp;

Beijing has one advantage compared to the democratic world. In democracies we can't set millennium goals. Elections happen, governments change and so do priorities. China doesn't have the inconvenience of free thought. Its goals are permanent.

China shells out 2% of its GDP on R&amp;D. That's around 346,000 million US Dollars.

What about the US?

It spends 2.7% of the national GDP on R&amp;D. Equivalent to 476,000 million dollars. China is gaining rapidly on the US. But it's not quite at the same level.

Here's an even more stark indicator. China employs 1,089 researchers per million inhabitants.

The US? 4,205 per million inhabitants. The US is spending more money and manpower on the tech race.

But here's the issue. The US is a superpower on the decline. China is on the ascendancy.

Trajectory is more important than absolute numbers. The only area where China leads the US right now -- in cybersecurity.

The great electronic wall is impressive. But it's built at the altar of liberty and dissent. This is why the world is betting on China losing the tech race.

Key to china's downfall will be emerging powers like India. India spends around 0.7% of its GDP on Research and Development.

That's 47,000 million US Dollars. Numerically that just doesn't cut it. But India has an ace up its sleeve.

Ingenuity.

Indian researchers can squeeze more out of each dollar than their peers. The space missions are the best example.

India's Mars probe cost 74 million dollars. Matt Damon's movie The Martian had a budget of 108 million. India has succeeded where China failed. Beijing produces cheap goods that last a lunar cycle.

India has managed to combine low cost and top quality. The next step is marketing. How do you get foreign investors to make in India? A couple of schemes have already been rolled out. Like the production-linked incentive scheme for large-scale electronics manufacturing.

It has an outlay of around 41,000 crore rupees spread over 5 years. There's a similar incentive scheme for information technology as well.

This has an outlay of 7,300 crores over 4 years. India is pitching itself as a stable and open supplier. It is reflected in india's climb up the ease of doing business ladder.

But there are a couple of things India needs to be wary about.

One, not sacrificing on ingenuity.

Manufacturing is a money spinner...

But inventions pay more. The focus must remain on research and development. Deploying robots is one thing. Making them from scratch is the real deal.

But who makes the robots? Should the tech race be led by the government or the private sector.

In Japan, Germany, the US and the UK it's the private sector. But in India the government outspends the private sector by 10,000 million dollars.

Capitalism has many failures. Spurring ingenuity is not one of them. India's private sector must join the race. It must bet big on Indian minds.

Today's geopolitical race is a race to attain the tech edge. It's at the root of military deterrence. It's the key to solving domestic problems like poverty and climate change.&nbsp;

And as always, this race is also about coming first.

As Mikhail Gorbachev said he who comes late is punished by life. The world can't afford to be late this time. Because the punishment in store is a cyber-world led by a cyberbully. 
&nbsp;

Technology is a force multiplier. Think of it as a cheat code in geopolitics. It helps you gain an advantage over your rivals. Technology is how a small island of a few million people forged the biggest empire in history.

Technology is a force multiplier. Think of it as a cheat code in geopolitics. It helps you gain an advantage over your rivals. Technology is how a small island of a few million people forged the biggest empire in history. It's how the United States brought a swift end to the second world war. You can match your rivals in courage and resolve. But not in technology. Every era is marked by a defining invention. Today it's tiny chips. The countries behind these inventions dominated world politics. Rise of companies like Microsoft and Apple coincided with America's leadership of a unipolar world. A world that China is looking to topple. Beijing has one advantage compared to the democratic world. In democracies we can't set millennium goals. Elections happen, governments change and so do priorities. China doesn't have the inconvenience of free thought. Its goals are permanent. China shells out 2% of its GDP on R&D. That's around 346,000 million US Dollars. What about the US? It spends 2.7% of the national GDP on R&D. Equivalent to 476,000 million dollars. China is gaining rapidly on the US. But it's not quite at the same level. Here's an even more stark indicator. China employs 1,089 researchers per million inhabitants. The US? 4,205 per million inhabitants. The US is spending more money and manpower on the tech race. But here's the issue. The US is a superpower on the decline. China is on the ascendancy. Trajectory is more important than absolute numbers. The only area where China leads the US right now -- in cybersecurity. The great electronic wall is impressive. But it's built at the altar of liberty and dissent. This is why the world is betting on China losing the tech race. Key to china's downfall will be emerging powers like India. India spends around 0.7% of its GDP on Research and Development. That's 47,000 million US Dollars. Numerically that just doesn't cut it. But India has an ace up its sleeve. Ingenuity. Indian researchers can squeeze more out of each dollar than their peers. The space missions are the best example. India's Mars probe cost 74 million dollars. Matt Damon's movie The Martian had a budget of 108 million. India has succeeded where China failed. Beijing produces cheap goods that last a lunar cycle. India has managed to combine low cost and top quality. The next step is marketing. How do you get foreign investors to make in India? A couple of schemes have already been rolled out. Like the production-linked incentive scheme for large-scale electronics manufacturing. It has an outlay of around 41,000 crore rupees spread over 5 years. There's a similar incentive scheme for information technology as well. This has an outlay of 7,300 crores over 4 years. India is pitching itself as a stable and open supplier. It is reflected in india's climb up the ease of doing business ladder. But there are a couple of things India needs to be wary about. One, not sacrificing on ingenuity. Manufacturing is a money spinner... But inventions pay more. The focus must remain on research and development. Deploying robots is one thing. Making them from scratch is the real deal. But who makes the robots? Should the tech race be led by the government or the private sector. In Japan, Germany, the US and the UK it's the private sector. But in India the government outspends the private sector by 10,000 million dollars. Capitalism has many failures. Spurring ingenuity is not one of them. India's private sector must join the race. It must bet big on Indian minds. Today's geopolitical race is a race to attain the tech edge. It's at the root of military deterrence. It's the key to solving domestic problems like poverty and climate change. And as always, this race is also about coming first. As Mikhail Gorbachev said he who comes late is punished by life. The world can't afford to be late this time. Because the punishment in store is a cyber-world led by a cyberbully.

Today's geopolitical race is to attain tech edge

On the first day of the 9th edition of Vibrant Gujarat in Gandhi Nagar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held bilateral meetings with four world leaders and discussed everything from investment to geopolitics to artificial intelligence.&nbsp;

Modi met Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Prime Minister of Denmark Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Prime Minister of Malta Dr Joseph Muscat and Prime Minister of Czech Republic Andrej Babis. The three-day investment summit from 18th to 20th January is a biannual event which was started in 2003 when PM Modi was the chief minister of Gujarat.&nbsp;

Uzbekistan: India focus on Afghanistan&nbsp;

Uzbekistan's President and PM discussed the first India-Central Asia Dialogue which took place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan last week. According to a statement released by the ministry of external affairs (MEA), Prime Minister thanked President Mirziyoyev for his support for the First India-Central Asia Dialogue "where important discussions also took place on support to peace and development in Afghanistan". While President Mirziyoyev said the dialogue "demonstrated India's positive impact on &nbsp;Central Asia and the joint quest of the participant countries for peace in Afghanistan." Uzbekistan's Novoi Minerals &amp; Metallurgical Company signed an agreement with Department of Atomic Energy on the long-term supply of Uranium Ore Concentrate for India's energy requirements. This is the second visit of Uzbekistan's President to India in 6 months. He was in India from September 30 to October 1 for a state visit.

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
<div class="twitter-block" draggable="false">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
Deep rooted relationship radiating warmth 
 
PM <a href="https://twitter.com/narendramodi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@narendramodi</a> met with Uzbek <a href="https://twitter.com/president_uz?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@president_uz</a> Shavkat Mirziyoyev on <a href="https://twitter.com/VibrantGujarat?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@VibrantGujarat</a> margins in Ahmedabad. Good discussion on upgrading bilateral relationship, specially in trade &amp; investment, healthcare, pharma, agriculture &amp; IT. <a href="https://t.co/a072oYIhdj">pic.twitter.com/a072oYIhdj</a>
— Raveesh Kumar (@MEAIndia) <a href="https://twitter.com/MEAIndia/status/1086117541305565184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
<a class="close-mark close-div" href="#" id="jqclosemark">×</a></div>

Denmark: Second Nordic leader in two weeks in India

With Denmark's PM, India focused on technology cooperation. Rasmussen is the second Nordic leader to visit India this month after the visit by Norway's Prime Minister Erna Solberg two weeks ago. Ties between the two countries had taken a dip after no progress in the extradition of Kim Davy but both India and Denmark agreed to revive ties, especially after the first India Nordic summit in Stockholm last year when PM Rasmussen met PM Modi.&nbsp;

Around 130 Danish companies have invested in India in areas such as shipping, renewable energy, environment, agriculture and food processing.

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
<div class="twitter-block" draggable="false">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
PM <a href="https://twitter.com/narendramodi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@narendramodi</a> met the Prime Minister of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Denmark?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Denmark</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/larsloekke?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@larsloekke</a> on the margins of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/VibrantGujaratSummit?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#VibrantGujaratSummit</a>. Took stock of the bilateral relationship, specially in trade &amp; investment, renewable energy, waste management, agriculture and food processing. <a href="https://t.co/rzzzOozPtX">pic.twitter.com/rzzzOozPtX</a>
— Raveesh Kumar (@MEAIndia) <a href="https://twitter.com/MEAIndia/status/1086216016709984261?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
<a class="close-mark close-div" href="#" id="jqclosemark">×</a></div>

Malta: Artificial intelligence, blockchain&nbsp;

Indian Pharma, IT industry especially Artificial Intelligence (AI) dominated talks between Malta's PM and PM Modi. Malta's PM invited India to cooperate with his country on advanced technologies such as AI, blockchain and financial technologies. Malta which has been unofficially known as the "1st blockchain island" last year brought in formal legislation on blockchain technology and sees Indian IT playing an important role.

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
<div class="twitter-block" draggable="false">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
A partner in EU &amp; Mediterranean 
 
PM <a href="https://twitter.com/narendramodi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@narendramodi</a> &amp; Maltese PM <a href="https://twitter.com/JosephMuscat_JM?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JosephMuscat_JM</a> met on <a href="https://twitter.com/VibrantGujarat?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@VibrantGujarat</a> margins. Discussed growing economic linkages and agreed to enhance mutual cooperation in sectors such renewable energy, pharmaceuticals &amp; healthcare, air connectivity &amp; tourism. <a href="https://t.co/ubXctakEWY">pic.twitter.com/ubXctakEWY</a>
— Raveesh Kumar (@MEAIndia) <a href="https://twitter.com/MEAIndia/status/1086105902221090816?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
<a class="close-mark close-div" href="#" id="jqclosemark">×</a></div>

Czech Republic: Investment focus&nbsp;

During his interaction with the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic, PM Modi invited Czech companies to invest in defence, automotive and railway sectors. &nbsp;Czech PM invited nomination of an Indian scientist for its Research &amp; Development Council. President Ram Nath Kovind visited the central European country in September last year.&nbsp;

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
<div class="twitter-block" draggable="false">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
Deepening economic relations 🇮🇳🇨🇿 
 
PM <a href="https://twitter.com/narendramodi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@narendramodi</a> met with his Czech counterpart Andrej Babiš on <a href="https://twitter.com/VibrantGujarat?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@VibrantGujarat</a> margins.Talks focused on trade, technology &amp; investment;cooperation in defence, high-tech manufacturing, heavy engineering, automotive industry &amp; civil aviation <a href="https://t.co/X7hzCPA12s">pic.twitter.com/X7hzCPA12s</a>
— Raveesh Kumar (@MEAIndia) <a href="https://twitter.com/MEAIndia/status/1086216015980023808?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
<a class="close-mark close-div" href="#" id="jqclosemark">×</a></div>

Australia, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Japan, Morocco, Norway, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, The Netherlands, UAE and Uzbekistan are the 15 countries partnering this year's Vibrant Gujarat.&nbsp;

On the first day of the 9th edition of Vibrant Gujarat in Gandhi Nagar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held bilateral meetings with four world leaders and discussed everything from investment to geopolitics to artificial intelligence.

On the first day of the 9th edition of Vibrant Gujarat in Gandhi Nagar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held bilateral meetings with four world leaders and discussed everything from investment to geopolitics to artificial intelligence. Modi met Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Prime Minister of Denmark Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Prime Minister of Malta Dr Joseph Muscat and Prime Minister of Czech Republic Andrej Babis. The three-day investment summit from 18th to 20th January is a biannual event which was started in 2003 when PM Modi was the chief minister of Gujarat. Uzbekistan: India focus on Afghanistan Uzbekistan's President and PM discussed the first India-Central Asia Dialogue which took place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan last week. According to a statement released by the ministry of external affairs (MEA), Prime Minister thanked President Mirziyoyev for his support for the First India-Central Asia Dialogue "where important discussions also took place on support to peace and development in Afghanistan". While President Mirziyoyev said the dialogue "demonstrated India's positive impact on Central Asia and the joint quest of the participant countries for peace in Afghanistan." Uzbekistan's Novoi Minerals & Metallurgical Company signed an agreement with Department of Atomic Energy on the long-term supply of Uranium Ore Concentrate for India's energy requirements. This is the second visit of Uzbekistan's President to India in 6 months. He was in India from September 30 to October 1 for a state visit. Deep rooted relationship radiating warmth PM @narendramodi met with Uzbek @president_uz Shavkat Mirziyoyev on @VibrantGujarat margins in Ahmedabad. Good discussion on upgrading bilateral relationship, specially in trade & investment, healthcare, pharma, agriculture & IT. pic.twitter.com/a072oYIhdj — Raveesh Kumar (@MEAIndia) January 18, 2019 × Denmark: Second Nordic leader in two weeks in India With Denmark's PM, India focused on technology cooperation. Rasmussen is the second Nordic leader to visit India this month after the visit by Norway's Prime Minister Erna Solberg two weeks ago. Ties between the two countries had taken a dip after no progress in the extradition of Kim Davy but both India and Denmark agreed to revive ties, especially after the first India Nordic summit in Stockholm last year when PM Rasmussen met PM Modi. Around 130 Danish companies have invested in India in areas such as shipping, renewable energy, environment, agriculture and food processing. PM @narendramodi met the Prime Minister of #Denmark @larsloekke on the margins of #VibrantGujaratSummit. Took stock of the bilateral relationship, specially in trade & investment, renewable energy, waste management, agriculture and food processing. pic.twitter.com/rzzzOozPtX — Raveesh Kumar (@MEAIndia) January 18, 2019 × Malta: Artificial intelligence, blockchain Indian Pharma, IT industry especially Artificial Intelligence (AI) dominated talks between Malta's PM and PM Modi. Malta's PM invited India to cooperate with his country on advanced technologies such as AI, blockchain and financial technologies. Malta which has been unofficially known as the "1st blockchain island" last year brought in formal legislation on blockchain technology and sees Indian IT playing an important role. A partner in EU & Mediterranean PM @narendramodi & Maltese PM @JosephMuscat_JM met on @VibrantGujarat margins. Discussed growing economic linkages and agreed to enhance mutual cooperation in sectors such renewable energy, pharmaceuticals & healthcare, air connectivity & tourism. pic.twitter.com/ubXctakEWY — Raveesh Kumar (@MEAIndia) January 18, 2019 × Czech Republic: Investment focus During his interaction with the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic, PM Modi invited Czech companies to invest in defence, automotive and railway sectors. Czech PM invited nomination of an Indian scientist for its Research & Development Council. President Ram Nath Kovind visited the central European country in September last year. Deepening economic relations 🇮🇳🇨🇿 PM @narendramodi met with his Czech counterpart Andrej Babiš on @VibrantGujarat margins.Talks focused on trade, technology & investment;cooperation in defence, high-tech manufacturing, heavy engineering, automotive industry & civil aviation pic.twitter.com/X7hzCPA12s — Raveesh Kumar (@MEAIndia) January 18, 2019 × Australia, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Japan, Morocco, Norway, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, The Netherlands, UAE and Uzbekistan are the 15 countries partnering this year's Vibrant Gujarat.

Geopolitics, AI dominate agenda as PM Modi meets 4 foreign leaders at Vibrant Gujarat 

The Central government on Friday said that it is ready to accept suggestions from people protesting the Citizenship Amendment Act.&nbsp;

The development comes after <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/anti-citizenship-amendment-act-protests-3-killed-section-144-imposed-in-several-districts-of-uttar-pradesh-269311">protesters across the country took to the streets</a> against the new law which seeks to grant citizenship to non-Muslim migrants from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh.

Students, activists, among others have been voicing their dissent against the new Act amid heavy security.&nbsp;

Section 144 has been imposed in many parts of the country while internet services have also been affected in some areas.&nbsp;

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
<div class="twitter-block" draggable="false">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
MHA sources on people protesting on roads against CAA: We brought the Bill after we consulted all, there were discussions. But they have the right to go to court &amp; people have right to protest too. Those who want to give suggestions can give, we're in process of framing the rule. <a href="https://t.co/6BNAm7CW6q">https://t.co/6BNAm7CW6q</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1207974728083759106?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 20, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
<a class="close-mark close-div" href="#" id="jqclosemark">×</a></div>

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) sources have said that the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act is under the Central government's control and will finalise who all will be involved in the enforcement of legislation, news agency ANI reported.&nbsp;

"Implementation of the Act is under centre. We will finalise who all will be involved in implementation. It will be a digital and easy process so that people don't face any problem," MHA sources on some states denying implementation of the new citizenship law.

Sources said that the ministry is in the process of framing rules for CAA and people can give their suggestions.

"We brought the Bill after we consulted all, there were discussions. But, they have the right to go to the court and the people have the right to protest too. Those who want to give suggestions can give. We`re in process of framing the rule," they said on the protests against CAA adding that the CAA will not affect the Indian citizens.&nbsp;

"If any country has illegal migrants than the government has the right to through them out anyway," sources said on international bodies' reaction on CAA.

(With inputs from ANI)&nbsp;

The Central government on Friday said that it is ready to accept suggestions from people protesting the Citizenship Amendment Act. The development comes after protesters across the country took to the streets against the new law which seeks to grant citizenship to non-Muslim migrants from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh.

The Central government on Friday said that it is ready to accept suggestions from people protesting the Citizenship Amendment Act. The development comes after protesters across the country took to the streets against the new law which seeks to grant citizenship to non-Muslim migrants from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. Students, activists, among others have been voicing their dissent against the new Act amid heavy security. Section 144 has been imposed in many parts of the country while internet services have also been affected in some areas. MHA sources on people protesting on roads against CAA: We brought the Bill after we consulted all, there were discussions. But they have the right to go to court & people have right to protest too. Those who want to give suggestions can give, we're in process of framing the rule. https://t.co/6BNAm7CW6q — ANI (@ANI) December 20, 2019 × Meanwhile, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) sources have said that the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act is under the Central government's control and will finalise who all will be involved in the enforcement of legislation, news agency ANI reported. "Implementation of the Act is under centre. We will finalise who all will be involved in implementation. It will be a digital and easy process so that people don't face any problem," MHA sources on some states denying implementation of the new citizenship law. Sources said that the ministry is in the process of framing rules for CAA and people can give their suggestions. "We brought the Bill after we consulted all, there were discussions. But, they have the right to go to the court and the people have the right to protest too. Those who want to give suggestions can give. We`re in process of framing the rule," they said on the protests against CAA adding that the CAA will not affect the Indian citizens. "If any country has illegal migrants than the government has the right to through them out anyway," sources said on international bodies' reaction on CAA. (With inputs from ANI)

The Maldives & geopolitics

By: Asit K. Biswas and&nbspKris Hartley*

In the last 50 years, China has experienced rapid economic transformation. It is now poised to assume membership among the world’s most developed economies. Its strategies on issues like urbanisation and infrastructure are widely studied and occasionally copied.

What is the next step on the growth ladder for the Asian giant? Evidence suggests that the answer lies with smart technology, particularly for urban and environmental management. Technology is playing an instrumental role in China’s modernisation efforts.

This is true across a variety of domains including industrial upgrades, public service delivery, and environmental monitoring and management. It is plausible, then, that the country will connect its growing technological prowess with its global leadership ambitions.

Green technology offers a particularly promising avenue for global influence. China has already staked a claim to global leadership in solar technology. Its domestic industry is prodigious and innovative. The country is taking bold strides to do even more. A proposed global power grid, estimated to cost a staggering USD$50 trillion, seeks to connect solar and wind power infrastructure around the world.

According to the United Nations’ Environment Programme, China’s investments in renewable energy topped USD$78.3 billion in 2017. Most of this was made up of government and corporate research and development. This far outpaced the US’s investment in the same year of USD$46.4 billion.

Now China must deliver both the innovation and scale to bring grand proposals like the global power grid to fruition. It must also navigate the modern era’ increasingly tense geopolitics. This is an important moment to put both its technological and diplomatic skills on display in its quest for superpower status.

Technology leadership

China has focused on several elements of technology in recent decades. These include urban systems, artificial intelligence and transport. One celebrated example is the country’s push for 500 cities to adopt “smart city” initiatives of varying sorts. These include “internet highways” and self-service hospitals.

Another example is Shenzhen’s fleet of electric buses. It’s almost triple the size of New York City’s fleet – conventionally powered or otherwise. The electrification of Shenzhen’s taxi fleet is next on the agenda.

China is also building world-class research capacity in artificial intelligence. It has recently implemented an internet-of-things enabled water diversion project. This spans more than 1,000km. The technology supports crucial capacity upgrades, including interlinked sensors that monitor water conditions and management systems to optimise water flow.

Towards global leadership

In a 2016 speech, the then-chairman of China’s State Grid Corp Liu Zhenya stated that upon the completion of the global energy grid project

… our world will turn into a peaceful and harmonious global village, a community of common destiny for all mankind with sufficient energy, blue skies and green land.

Cynics may bristle at such idealism. But despite its hyperbole, this comment shows how far China’s vision for global leadership has evolved. When an emerging superpower – with the world’s largest population and, soon, the world’s largest economy – makes declarations about its global ambitions, the rest of the world scoffs at its own peril.

Becoming a global leader in solar and other green energy sources comes with great responsibilities. China will need to balance the rapid expansion of productive capacity with environmental stewardship. For example, the negative peripheral effects of solar manufacturing require tighter regulatory control.

Investment in cleaner production systems is also crucial – not only for the health of China’s citizens but also as a model of sustainability for the world.

Looking to a global future

China’s long-run investment perspective and bold capital outlays in the areas of technology, energy, environment, and transport have the potential to define the global future in the way Britain’s industrial revolution did two centuries ago.

The variety and complexity of such projects can generate spin-off technologies that drive global-scale innovations in other fields, in the same way the US’s space exploration led to the transformation of technology for health and medicine, transportation, agriculture, and security.

China has exhibited a pragmatic approach in overcoming domestic economic development challenges in recent decades. The country’s economic reforms, beginning in 1978, embraced market liberalisation as a substitute for the ideology of central planning.

The reforms included investment in infrastructure, education and industrial capacity. This generated substantial negative impacts, including environmental degradation. But there is evidence that China is committed to improving conditions.

One notable example is recent progress clearing the air in Beijing. China should now embrace the same pragmatism in applying technology to global challenges in an inclusive and sustainable fashion.

*Asit K. Biswas is a&nbspDistinguished Visiting Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore and Kris Hartley, Lecturer in Public Policy, University of Melbourne

(This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-china-connect-technological-prowess-with-global-ambitions-95093">original article</a>.)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

China’s long-run investment perspective and bold capital outlays in the areas of technology, energy, environment, and transport have the potential to define the global future in the way Britain’s industrial revolution did two centuries ago

By: Asit K. Biswas and&nbspKris Hartley* In the last 50 years, China has experienced rapid economic transformation. It is now poised to assume membership among the world’s most developed economies. Its strategies on issues like urbanisation and infrastructure are widely studied and occasionally copied. What is the next step on the growth ladder for the Asian giant? Evidence suggests that the answer lies with smart technology, particularly for urban and environmental management. Technology is playing an instrumental role in China’s modernisation efforts. This is true across a variety of domains including industrial upgrades, public service delivery, and environmental monitoring and management. It is plausible, then, that the country will connect its growing technological prowess with its global leadership ambitions. Green technology offers a particularly promising avenue for global influence. China has already staked a claim to global leadership in solar technology. Its domestic industry is prodigious and innovative. The country is taking bold strides to do even more. A proposed global power grid, estimated to cost a staggering USD$50 trillion, seeks to connect solar and wind power infrastructure around the world. According to the United Nations’ Environment Programme, China’s investments in renewable energy topped USD$78.3 billion in 2017. Most of this was made up of government and corporate research and development. This far outpaced the US’s investment in the same year of USD$46.4 billion. Now China must deliver both the innovation and scale to bring grand proposals like the global power grid to fruition. It must also navigate the modern era’ increasingly tense geopolitics. This is an important moment to put both its technological and diplomatic skills on display in its quest for superpower status. Technology leadership China has focused on several elements of technology in recent decades. These include urban systems, artificial intelligence and transport. One celebrated example is the country’s push for 500 cities to adopt “smart city” initiatives of varying sorts. These include “internet highways” and self-service hospitals. Another example is Shenzhen’s fleet of electric buses. It’s almost triple the size of New York City’s fleet – conventionally powered or otherwise. The electrification of Shenzhen’s taxi fleet is next on the agenda. China is also building world-class research capacity in artificial intelligence. It has recently implemented an internet-of-things enabled water diversion project. This spans more than 1,000km. The technology supports crucial capacity upgrades, including interlinked sensors that monitor water conditions and management systems to optimise water flow. Towards global leadership In a 2016 speech, the then-chairman of China’s State Grid Corp Liu Zhenya stated that upon the completion of the global energy grid project … our world will turn into a peaceful and harmonious global village, a community of common destiny for all mankind with sufficient energy, blue skies and green land. Cynics may bristle at such idealism. But despite its hyperbole, this comment shows how far China’s vision for global leadership has evolved. When an emerging superpower – with the world’s largest population and, soon, the world’s largest economy – makes declarations about its global ambitions, the rest of the world scoffs at its own peril. Becoming a global leader in solar and other green energy sources comes with great responsibilities. China will need to balance the rapid expansion of productive capacity with environmental stewardship. For example, the negative peripheral effects of solar manufacturing require tighter regulatory control. Investment in cleaner production systems is also crucial – not only for the health of China’s citizens but also as a model of sustainability for the world. Looking to a global future China’s long-run investment perspective and bold capital outlays in the areas of technology, energy, environment, and transport have the potential to define the global future in the way Britain’s industrial revolution did two centuries ago. The variety and complexity of such projects can generate spin-off technologies that drive global-scale innovations in other fields, in the same way the US’s space exploration led to the transformation of technology for health and medicine, transportation, agriculture, and security. China has exhibited a pragmatic approach in overcoming domestic economic development challenges in recent decades. The country’s economic reforms, beginning in 1978, embraced market liberalisation as a substitute for the ideology of central planning. The reforms included investment in infrastructure, education and industrial capacity. This generated substantial negative impacts, including environmental degradation. But there is evidence that China is committed to improving conditions. One notable example is recent progress clearing the air in Beijing. China should now embrace the same pragmatism in applying technology to global challenges in an inclusive and sustainable fashion. *Asit K. Biswas is a&nbspDistinguished Visiting Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore and Kris Hartley, Lecturer in Public Policy, University of Melbourne (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Opinion: Can China connect technological prowess with global ambitions?

With every new North Korean missile &ndash; such as the one launched on Tuesday, November 28 &ndash; or nuclear test, all eyes are on China. Like previous American presidents, Donald Trump believes that the road to a diplomatic solution on North Korea runs through Beijing. He holds the view that, of any country, China has the most leverage over North Korea and therefore could &ldquo;quickly and easily&rdquo; solve the problem with the Kim Jung-un regime &ndash; but is just not willing to do so.

For Washington, North Korea has become a top national security priority, in particular, because of Pyongyang&rsquo;s unexpectedly fast progress in developing intercontinental nuclear capabilities that may be able to reach the US mainland. Since assuming office, Trump has made North Korea the main focus of US-China relations. His main strategy has been to use trade issues as a bargaining chip to pressure China on North Korea, convinced that exerting enough economic pressure on Beijing will eventually force China to do what he wants.

Not budging

While recent measures &ndash; such as closing joint ventures with North Korean entities in China &ndash; have been viewed as signs of Beijing getting tougher on North Korea, the actions of the Chinese government are unlikely to be overly tough in the future. If it really wanted to take North Korea to task, China has a number of important economic levers at its disposal that it could use. The most effective measure against Kim Jong-un&rsquo;s regime would be for Beijing to completely stop its crude oil supply to its neighbour and thus cut off North Korea&rsquo;s main lifeline. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, China is the largest oil supplier to Pyongyang and accounts for about 90% of North Korea&rsquo;s total trade.

This is why most experts outside of China believe that Beijing is the key to solving the North Korean problem. But why are the Chinese so reluctant to do more despite the increasingly troubling behaviour of their neighbour?

China keeps Pyongyang economically viable because it fears the possible implications for China of the collapse of Kim Jong-un&rsquo;s regime. For a start, it would bring chaos and refugees to China&rsquo;s border. It would also induce an important foreign policy shift for Beijing in north-east Asia. And such interests are all related to one main actor: the United States.

Clash with US interests

Washington&rsquo;s aspirations for the endgame in North Korea are clearly in stark contrast to China&rsquo;s own long-term national interests. Beijing would certainly want to avoid a reunification of two Koreas under the banner of a democratic pro-American Republic of Korea &ndash; especially if this meant the presence of around 28,000 US troops next to its borders.

However, regardless of whether the US military moves north of the 38th parallel, in China&rsquo;s assessment, the US influence and its alliances on the whole Korean peninsula would likely remain. This would not only negatively affect China&rsquo;s security environment but also ultimately have a considerable impact on the balance of power in north-east Asia to Beijing&rsquo;s disadvantage.

In general, Chinese policy-makers view North Korea primarily through the prism of its greater rivalry with the US in Asia. Historically, Pyongyang has been regarded as an important strategic buffer zone against American influence. The very fact that the Chinese government continues to support the Kim regime suggests that this strategic thinking continues to play a substantive role in the calculus of China&rsquo;s foreign policy-making.

North Korea has also become an asset as a bargaining leverage vis-&agrave;-vis the US with respect to other conflicts between Washington and Beijing: for instance the maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas as well as the question of Taiwan&rsquo;s status.

The shift of US foreign policy towards the Asia-pacific region initiated by the Obama administration appears to have increased the value of North Korea for China. As part of its rebalancing strategy, the US has strengthened its relations and military cooperations with regional allies and partners, as well as expanding its institutional involvement in the region.

Washington&rsquo;s strategy in Asia has mainly focused on military issues. Most of China&rsquo;s foreign policy thinkers believe that the US wants to contain China&rsquo;s rise and influence while trying to preserve US dominance in the region. The fear of a strategic encirclement by a chain of US and allied air and military bases has grown in recent years. Moreover, China worries about being surrounded by a gradually expanding US missile defence system in Asia.

Fear of US surveillance&nbsp;

Beijing views the recent instalment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) in South Korea (which Washington bills as a protection against the missile threat from North Korea) primarily as part of a US-led regional missile defence network serving the larger purpose of weakening China&rsquo;s nuclear deterrence capability. Chinese military and security experts believe that the X-band radar system which comes with the THAAD missile defence battery enables the US to conduct surveillance deep into the Chinese and Russian territory.

The Chinese are particularly concerned that the THAAD system in Seoul will be connected to the other two American X-band radars stationed in the north and the south of Japan &ndash; expanding further data exchange and strengthening the US missile defence system in China&rsquo;s close neighbourhood.

<div class="ui-state-default"><img alt="" src="http://s.wionews.com/photos/file-20171129-28917-oeyxue-20171205072955.jpg" />
<div class="media-description">
The mobile Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defence system at a golf course in Seongju, South Korea. (Others)
</div>
<a class="close-mark close-div" href="javascript:void(0)">&times;</a></div>

This would also be likely to foster a trilateral US-South Korea-Japan military alliance countering China. China also worries that the deployment of THAAD in Seoul might trigger other countries such as Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines to follow suit. Chinese analysts argue that the US is using the North Korea crisis as a pretext to expand its military capabilities in the region.

Whether the crisis amplifies or declines, Washington&rsquo;s interests are at stake in the region &ndash; so, for Beijing, the greatest threat to its national security is not the Kim regime but the US.

So far, US officials have failed to provide China with any good reasons why it should abandon its strategic leverage on North Korea and risk chaos on its doorstep.

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" rel="nofollow">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-beijing-the-greatest-threat-to-chinas-national-security-is-not-the-kim-regime-it-is-the-us-88271" rel="nofollow">original article</a>.

(Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity).

Image credit: EPA

China is reluctant to be more active in dealing with Pyongyang for fear of consolidating the US take over in the region

With every new North Korean missile – such as the one launched on Tuesday, November 28 – or nuclear test, all eyes are on China. Like previous American presidents, Donald Trump believes that the road to a diplomatic solution on North Korea runs through Beijing. He holds the view that, of any country, China has the most leverage over North Korea and therefore could “quickly and easily” solve the problem with the Kim Jung-un regime – but is just not willing to do so. For Washington, North Korea has become a top national security priority, in particular, because of Pyongyang’s unexpectedly fast progress in developing intercontinental nuclear capabilities that may be able to reach the US mainland. Since assuming office, Trump has made North Korea the main focus of US-China relations. His main strategy has been to use trade issues as a bargaining chip to pressure China on North Korea, convinced that exerting enough economic pressure on Beijing will eventually force China to do what he wants. Not budging While recent measures – such as closing joint ventures with North Korean entities in China – have been viewed as signs of Beijing getting tougher on North Korea, the actions of the Chinese government are unlikely to be overly tough in the future. If it really wanted to take North Korea to task, China has a number of important economic levers at its disposal that it could use. The most effective measure against Kim Jong-un’s regime would be for Beijing to completely stop its crude oil supply to its neighbour and thus cut off North Korea’s main lifeline. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, China is the largest oil supplier to Pyongyang and accounts for about 90% of North Korea’s total trade. This is why most experts outside of China believe that Beijing is the key to solving the North Korean problem. But why are the Chinese so reluctant to do more despite the increasingly troubling behaviour of their neighbour? China keeps Pyongyang economically viable because it fears the possible implications for China of the collapse of Kim Jong-un’s regime. For a start, it would bring chaos and refugees to China’s border. It would also induce an important foreign policy shift for Beijing in north-east Asia. And such interests are all related to one main actor: the United States. Clash with US interests Washington’s aspirations for the endgame in North Korea are clearly in stark contrast to China’s own long-term national interests. Beijing would certainly want to avoid a reunification of two Koreas under the banner of a democratic pro-American Republic of Korea – especially if this meant the presence of around 28,000 US troops next to its borders. However, regardless of whether the US military moves north of the 38th parallel, in China’s assessment, the US influence and its alliances on the whole Korean peninsula would likely remain. This would not only negatively affect China’s security environment but also ultimately have a considerable impact on the balance of power in north-east Asia to Beijing’s disadvantage. In general, Chinese policy-makers view North Korea primarily through the prism of its greater rivalry with the US in Asia. Historically, Pyongyang has been regarded as an important strategic buffer zone against American influence. The very fact that the Chinese government continues to support the Kim regime suggests that this strategic thinking continues to play a substantive role in the calculus of China’s foreign policy-making. North Korea has also become an asset as a bargaining leverage vis-à-vis the US with respect to other conflicts between Washington and Beijing: for instance the maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas as well as the question of Taiwan’s status. The shift of US foreign policy towards the Asia-pacific region initiated by the Obama administration appears to have increased the value of North Korea for China. As part of its rebalancing strategy, the US has strengthened its relations and military cooperations with regional allies and partners, as well as expanding its institutional involvement in the region. Washington’s strategy in Asia has mainly focused on military issues. Most of China’s foreign policy thinkers believe that the US wants to contain China’s rise and influence while trying to preserve US dominance in the region. The fear of a strategic encirclement by a chain of US and allied air and military bases has grown in recent years. Moreover, China worries about being surrounded by a gradually expanding US missile defence system in Asia. Fear of US surveillance Beijing views the recent instalment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) in South Korea (which Washington bills as a protection against the missile threat from North Korea) primarily as part of a US-led regional missile defence network serving the larger purpose of weakening China’s nuclear deterrence capability. Chinese military and security experts believe that the X-band radar system which comes with the THAAD missile defence battery enables the US to conduct surveillance deep into the Chinese and Russian territory. The Chinese are particularly concerned that the THAAD system in Seoul will be connected to the other two American X-band radars stationed in the north and the south of Japan – expanding further data exchange and strengthening the US missile defence system in China’s close neighbourhood. The mobile Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defence system at a golf course in Seongju, South Korea. (Others) × This would also be likely to foster a trilateral US-South Korea-Japan military alliance countering China. China also worries that the deployment of THAAD in Seoul might trigger other countries such as Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines to follow suit. Chinese analysts argue that the US is using the North Korea crisis as a pretext to expand its military capabilities in the region. Whether the crisis amplifies or declines, Washington’s interests are at stake in the region – so, for Beijing, the greatest threat to its national security is not the Kim regime but the US. So far, US officials have failed to provide China with any good reasons why it should abandon its strategic leverage on North Korea and risk chaos on its doorstep. This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article. (Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity). Image credit: EPA

Opinion: The greatest threat to China is US, not the Kim regime

geopolitics

Geopolitics, News on Geopolitics, stories on Geopolitics, articles on Geopolitics, Geopolitics stories at Wion, Geopolitics news, Geopolitics latest news