The Ministry of Heavy Industry and Public Enterprises, Government of India released the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan, 2020. The Plan came the with a view to enhance national energy security, mitigate adverse environmental impacts, including CO2, from road transport vehicles and boost domestic manufacturing capabilities for electric vehicles.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban transport planning in India has to address numerous challenges which include deteriorating air quality, rising greenhouse gas emissions, and adverse energy security risks. There is an increasing consensus among planners that a range of additional measures will be required, beyond the existing policies, to mitigate the adverse impacts of transport on these sustainability indicators. Electric vehicles (EVs) offer alternate mobility options that can help to redress these adverse impacts.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

EVs so far have remained on the fringe. However, technology and battery advancements are making EVs more attractive to the consumer due to convenience and affordability. The transport sector, which is amongst the largest energy consuming sectors, is globally overly dependent on liquid fossil fuels. 93% of all the fuel used in transport sector was oil based in 2010. The sector is also a major source of GHG emissions and accounts for 22 % of total global energy-related CO2 emissions.

&nbsp;

Transport sector energy demand and CO2 emissions would increase at a rapid rate over the next few decades. Realising the threat it poses, emission mitigation and reducing energy consumption in the transport sector have been at the centre of national as well as global energy and environmental policy debates in the recent years.

&nbsp;

One of the key ways in which future emissions can be avoided is through the development and use of low carbon technologies. In the context of decarbonising transport, Electric Vehicles (EVs) are one such option for CO2 mitigation from light-duty vehicle fleet.

&nbsp;

However, the big question is &lsquo;Would India be EV ready by 2030&rsquo;?

&nbsp;

The Indian Government wants to achieve the mission by 2030 and replace all the ICE(Internal Combustion Engine) with Electric Vehicles. However, Currently EV&rsquo;s have less than 1% market share and 95% of this market is constituted by Electric Scooters.

&nbsp;

In numbers, we have currently around 2000 EV&rsquo;s while the number of Petrol or Diesel Cars is 30,46,727. We have only one manufacturer producing Electric Vehicle i.e. Mahindra, and the cost of its electric cars comes around Rs 6 lakhs to Rs 11 lakhs with a mileage of around 140 km on a full charge.

&nbsp;

If we talk about the charging stations, India currently has around 500 charging stations. To make it scalable, however, Delhi alone will need around 3 lakh charging stations to make the EV&rsquo;s a true success.

&nbsp;

If we do a fact check with other countries, India has set a timeline of 2030 for the new ICE, Scotland has set it to be 2032, France and England have set the deadline to be 2040.

&nbsp;

Which clearly shows that India has definitely set itself against a hugely ambitious target.

&nbsp;

Will it be able to achieve it?

&nbsp;

According to Mr Amitabh Kant, the CEO of Niti Aayog, &ldquo;despite all these challenges, India has an advantage, per capita usage of cars in India is 20 per 1000 people while the same number for America is 800 per 1000 person, thus we will need to tweak our infrastructure at a very small scale in comparison to what the U.S. has to do&rdquo;

&nbsp;

Moreover, in India, 80% of the transportation happens within 5 km radius. Therefore, the first impetus of government would be to bring change in the public transport. According to him, in 2026, prices of EV&rsquo;s will be equivalent to cars running on diesel or petrol.

&nbsp;

So, while the current scenario gives a grim picture of Electric Vehicles and, on the other hand, the government has made big promises, Amitabh Kant of Niti Aayog believes that India stands at an advantage point when it comes to accepting EV&rsquo;s.

&nbsp;

Then, What are the challenges which manufacturers are facing currently?

&nbsp;

Roadmap for EV: We still need a clear Roadmap for EV in terms of whether we are moving with the Battery Swapping or Charging stations.

&nbsp;

Fiscal Incentive: Mahindra has a long-pending request for subsidy for its Electric Vehicle, however, Government is not in any mood for a subsidy and wants automobile manufacturer to figure it out.

&nbsp;

We need to realise that China has become the 2nd biggest EV&rsquo;s manufacturer in 2 years is because of its clear roadmap and the subsidy it provided for the Electric Vehicles.

&nbsp;

Tax Parity: Currently, the Hybrid is taxed at 28%, EV are taxed at 12% and batteries are taxed at 28%. Therefore, if a manufacturer moves towards a battery swapping model then they have to pay 12% tax on car and separate 28% tax on the batteries and battery being a major component of EV&rsquo;s, it will increase the cost drastically for the consumer.

&nbsp;

Irrespective of, whatever happens, we should learn from our CNG experience and should not create a situation, where all the cars are standing in line at the charging stations to get charged at the night.

&nbsp;

Moreover, the government needs to come up with a clearer roadmap and should think of every segment as a different trajectory i.e. In EV&rsquo;S adoption &ndash; 2-wheeler will have its own pace, while 3-wheeler will have its own and similarly the passenger vehicles.

&nbsp;

In the end, we should make sure that the power required by these EV&rsquo;S is not produced by coal, else we will end up creating the same amount of pollution or more without ever solving the problem which we wanted to solve at the first step.

&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)&nbsp;&nbsp;

Today is World Automobile Day, Electric Vehicles have less than 1% market share and 95% of this market is constituted by Electric Scooters.

The Ministry of Heavy Industry and Public Enterprises, Government of India released the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan, 2020. The Plan came the with a view to enhance national energy security, mitigate adverse environmental impacts, including CO2, from road transport vehicles and boost domestic manufacturing capabilities for electric vehicles. Urban transport planning in India has to address numerous challenges which include deteriorating air quality, rising greenhouse gas emissions, and adverse energy security risks. There is an increasing consensus among planners that a range of additional measures will be required, beyond the existing policies, to mitigate the adverse impacts of transport on these sustainability indicators. Electric vehicles (EVs) offer alternate mobility options that can help to redress these adverse impacts. EVs so far have remained on the fringe. However, technology and battery advancements are making EVs more attractive to the consumer due to convenience and affordability. The transport sector, which is amongst the largest energy consuming sectors, is globally overly dependent on liquid fossil fuels. 93% of all the fuel used in transport sector was oil based in 2010. The sector is also a major source of GHG emissions and accounts for 22 % of total global energy-related CO2 emissions. Transport sector energy demand and CO2 emissions would increase at a rapid rate over the next few decades. Realising the threat it poses, emission mitigation and reducing energy consumption in the transport sector have been at the centre of national as well as global energy and environmental policy debates in the recent years. One of the key ways in which future emissions can be avoided is through the development and use of low carbon technologies. In the context of decarbonising transport, Electric Vehicles (EVs) are one such option for CO2 mitigation from light-duty vehicle fleet. However, the big question is ‘Would India be EV ready by 2030’? The Indian Government wants to achieve the mission by 2030 and replace all the ICE(Internal Combustion Engine) with Electric Vehicles. However, Currently EV’s have less than 1% market share and 95% of this market is constituted by Electric Scooters. In numbers, we have currently around 2000 EV’s while the number of Petrol or Diesel Cars is 30,46,727. We have only one manufacturer producing Electric Vehicle i.e. Mahindra, and the cost of its electric cars comes around Rs 6 lakhs to Rs 11 lakhs with a mileage of around 140 km on a full charge. If we talk about the charging stations, India currently has around 500 charging stations. To make it scalable, however, Delhi alone will need around 3 lakh charging stations to make the EV’s a true success. If we do a fact check with other countries, India has set a timeline of 2030 for the new ICE, Scotland has set it to be 2032, France and England have set the deadline to be 2040. Which clearly shows that India has definitely set itself against a hugely ambitious target. Will it be able to achieve it? According to Mr Amitabh Kant, the CEO of Niti Aayog, “despite all these challenges, India has an advantage, per capita usage of cars in India is 20 per 1000 people while the same number for America is 800 per 1000 person, thus we will need to tweak our infrastructure at a very small scale in comparison to what the U.S. has to do” Moreover, in India, 80% of the transportation happens within 5 km radius. Therefore, the first impetus of government would be to bring change in the public transport. According to him, in 2026, prices of EV’s will be equivalent to cars running on diesel or petrol. So, while the current scenario gives a grim picture of Electric Vehicles and, on the other hand, the government has made big promises, Amitabh Kant of Niti Aayog believes that India stands at an advantage point when it comes to accepting EV’s. Then, What are the challenges which manufacturers are facing currently? Roadmap for EV: We still need a clear Roadmap for EV in terms of whether we are moving with the Battery Swapping or Charging stations. Fiscal Incentive: Mahindra has a long-pending request for subsidy for its Electric Vehicle, however, Government is not in any mood for a subsidy and wants automobile manufacturer to figure it out. We need to realise that China has become the 2nd biggest EV’s manufacturer in 2 years is because of its clear roadmap and the subsidy it provided for the Electric Vehicles. Tax Parity: Currently, the Hybrid is taxed at 28%, EV are taxed at 12% and batteries are taxed at 28%. Therefore, if a manufacturer moves towards a battery swapping model then they have to pay 12% tax on car and separate 28% tax on the batteries and battery being a major component of EV’s, it will increase the cost drastically for the consumer. Irrespective of, whatever happens, we should learn from our CNG experience and should not create a situation, where all the cars are standing in line at the charging stations to get charged at the night. Moreover, the government needs to come up with a clearer roadmap and should think of every segment as a different trajectory i.e. In EV’S adoption – 2-wheeler will have its own pace, while 3-wheeler will have its own and similarly the passenger vehicles. In the end, we should make sure that the power required by these EV’S is not produced by coal, else we will end up creating the same amount of pollution or more without ever solving the problem which we wanted to solve at the first step. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Opinion: Is India ready for Electric Vehicles?

Ford Motor Co will significantly increase its planned investments in electric vehicles to $11 billion by 2022 and have 40 hybrid and fully electric vehicles in its model lineup, Chairman Bill Ford said on Sunday at the Detroit auto show.

The investment figure is sharply higher than a previously announced target of $4.5 billion by 2020, Ford executives said, and includes the costs of developing dedicated electric vehicle architectures. Ford&#39;s engineering, research and development expenses for 2016, the last full year available, were $7.3 billion, up from $6.7 billion in 2015.

Ford Chief Executive Jim Hackett told investors last October the automaker would slash $14 billion in costs over the next five years and shift capital investment away from sedans and internal combustion engines to develop more trucks and electric and hybrid cars.

Of the 40 electrified vehicles Ford plans for its global lineup by 2022, 16 will be fully electric and the rest will be plug-in hybrids, executives said.

&quot;We&#39;re all in on this and we&#39;re taking our mainstream vehicles, our most iconic vehicles, and we&#39;re electrifying them,&quot; Ford told reporters. &quot;If we want to be successful with electrification, we have to do it with vehicles that are already popular.&quot;

General Motors Co, Toyota Motor Corp and Volkswagen AG, have already outlined aggressive plans to expand their electric vehicle offerings and offer them to consumers who want luxury, performance and an SUV body style - or all three attributes in the same vehicle.

Mainstream auto makers are reacting in part to pressure from regulators in China, Europe and California to slash carbon emissions from fossil fuels. They also are under pressure from

Tesla Inc&#39;s success at creating electric sedans and SUVs that inspire would-be owners to line up outside showrooms and flood the company with orders.

GM said last year it would add 20 new battery electric and fuel cell vehicles to its global lineup by 2023, financed by robust profits from those very same traditional internal combustion engine vehicles in the United States and China.

GM Chief Executive Mary Barra has promised investors the Detroit automaker will make money selling electric cars by 2021.

Volkswagen said in November it would spend $40 billion on electric cars, autonomous driving and new mobility services by the end of 2022 &ndash; significantly more than when it announced two months earlier it would invest more than 20 billion euros on electric and self-driving cars through 2030.

Toyota is racing to commercialize a breakthrough battery technology during the first half of the 2020s with the potential to cut the cost of making electric cars.

Ford&#39;s president of global markets, Jim Farley, said on Sunday that Ford would bring a high-performance electric utility vehicle to market by 2020. The company will begin production of a hybrid version of its popular F-150 truck at a plant in Dearborn, Michigan, in 2020.

&quot;What we learned from this first cycle of electrification is people want really nice products,&quot; Farley said.

Ford&rsquo;s shift to the electric vehicle strategy has been more than six months in the making after Hackett replaced former Chief Executive Mark Fields in May.

The plan was finalized in recent months after an extensive review, a person familiar with the process said. In October, Ford disclosed it had formed a team to accelerate global development of electric vehicles, whose mission is to &ldquo;think big&rdquo; and &ldquo;make quicker decisions.&rdquo;

Some of the electric vehicles will be produced with Ford&rsquo;s JV in China aimed at the Chinese market. One aim of Ford&rsquo;s &ldquo;Team Edison&rdquo; is to identify and develop electric-vehicle partnerships with other companies, including suppliers, in some markets, according to Sherif Marakby, vice president of autonomous vehicles and electrification.

China, India, France and the United Kingdom all have announced plans to phase out vehicles powered by combustion engines and fossil fuels between 2030 and 2040.

Ford Chief Executive Jim Hackett told investors last October the automaker would slash $14 billion in costs over the next five years and shift capital investment away from sedans and internal combustion engines to develop more trucks and electric and hybrid cars

Ford Motor Co will significantly increase its planned investments in electric vehicles to $11 billion by 2022 and have 40 hybrid and fully electric vehicles in its model lineup, Chairman Bill Ford said on Sunday at the Detroit auto show. The investment figure is sharply higher than a previously announced target of $4.5 billion by 2020, Ford executives said, and includes the costs of developing dedicated electric vehicle architectures. Ford's engineering, research and development expenses for 2016, the last full year available, were $7.3 billion, up from $6.7 billion in 2015. Ford Chief Executive Jim Hackett told investors last October the automaker would slash $14 billion in costs over the next five years and shift capital investment away from sedans and internal combustion engines to develop more trucks and electric and hybrid cars. Of the 40 electrified vehicles Ford plans for its global lineup by 2022, 16 will be fully electric and the rest will be plug-in hybrids, executives said. "We're all in on this and we're taking our mainstream vehicles, our most iconic vehicles, and we're electrifying them," Ford told reporters. "If we want to be successful with electrification, we have to do it with vehicles that are already popular." General Motors Co, Toyota Motor Corp and Volkswagen AG, have already outlined aggressive plans to expand their electric vehicle offerings and offer them to consumers who want luxury, performance and an SUV body style - or all three attributes in the same vehicle. Mainstream auto makers are reacting in part to pressure from regulators in China, Europe and California to slash carbon emissions from fossil fuels. They also are under pressure from Tesla Inc's success at creating electric sedans and SUVs that inspire would-be owners to line up outside showrooms and flood the company with orders. GM said last year it would add 20 new battery electric and fuel cell vehicles to its global lineup by 2023, financed by robust profits from those very same traditional internal combustion engine vehicles in the United States and China. GM Chief Executive Mary Barra has promised investors the Detroit automaker will make money selling electric cars by 2021. Volkswagen said in November it would spend $40 billion on electric cars, autonomous driving and new mobility services by the end of 2022 – significantly more than when it announced two months earlier it would invest more than 20 billion euros on electric and self-driving cars through 2030. Toyota is racing to commercialize a breakthrough battery technology during the first half of the 2020s with the potential to cut the cost of making electric cars. Ford's president of global markets, Jim Farley, said on Sunday that Ford would bring a high-performance electric utility vehicle to market by 2020. The company will begin production of a hybrid version of its popular F-150 truck at a plant in Dearborn, Michigan, in 2020. "What we learned from this first cycle of electrification is people want really nice products," Farley said. Ford’s shift to the electric vehicle strategy has been more than six months in the making after Hackett replaced former Chief Executive Mark Fields in May. The plan was finalized in recent months after an extensive review, a person familiar with the process said. In October, Ford disclosed it had formed a team to accelerate global development of electric vehicles, whose mission is to “think big” and “make quicker decisions.” Some of the electric vehicles will be produced with Ford’s JV in China aimed at the Chinese market. One aim of Ford’s “Team Edison” is to identify and develop electric-vehicle partnerships with other companies, including suppliers, in some markets, according to Sherif Marakby, vice president of autonomous vehicles and electrification. China, India, France and the United Kingdom all have announced plans to phase out vehicles powered by combustion engines and fossil fuels between 2030 and 2040.

Ford plans $11 billion investment, 40 electric vehicles by 2022

The Indian government plans to make the country an all electric car market by 2030. This means all the existing cars will be replaced by electric vehicles on the road. This is being done to end dependency on fossil fuel and curb pollution.

But is the auto industry prepared for the change? One of India&#39;s biggest automaker Maruti Suzuki India reveals its plans to go fully electric.

&quot;We remains committed to electric vehicles, but we don&rsquo;t have the technology yet to make the batteries in India,&quot; Maruti Suzuki India Chairman RC Bhargava said on Thursday.

Speaking at a press conference, Bhargava said, &quot;The electric vehicles is the most viable option as far as reducing the emissions is concerned, but making the batteries remains a challenge. Maruti has a plant in Gujarat where batteries are being made but to meet the target of EVs that the government has planned is a difficult task. The government plans to have 40% of the cars to be EVs. Now that is a very stiff target to achieve as far as production of batteries is concerned.&quot;

He agreed with the fact that dependence on oil needs to be reduced but the material used to make these batteries - lithium and cobalt - has to be imported. &quot;That will make us dependent on the countries which produce these materials,&quot; Bhargava said. &quot;And even if the supply side is sorted, question still remains about the infrastructure to have enough charging ports around to make it viable for customers to use EVs.&quot;

India has millions of cars and growing annually at a rate of nearly 10 per cent. Many activists have raised concerns about rising number of cars and the government has pushed for adoption a more cleaner mode of transport - electric vehicles. The National Green Tribunal (NGT) recently banned diesel vehicles of more than 2000cc in Delhi and areas around the national capital after the air quality levels plunged to the lowest levels.

&quot;Everything is at discussion level. Companies have been investing in R&amp;D to make EVs feasible. According to me, there is no point in making a vehicle if we can&rsquo;t sell it. We have to keep our customers in the centre,&quot; said Bhargava.

However, he assured that Maruti will come up with its first EV by 2020.

Maruti is ready to invest and assist in the R&amp;D of electric vehicles but making such vehicles for Indian market is not going to happen soon, he added. &quot;We plan to launch a countrywide survey to get feedback from customers about their requirements which will be completed by February next year. This will help in understanding the needs of the customers vis-a-vis governments plan to launch EVs,&quot; Bhargava said.

The Indian government plans to make the country an all electric car market by 2030. This means all the existing cars will be replaced by electric vehicles on the road. This is being done to end dependency on fossil fuel and curb pollution.

The Indian government plans to make the country an all electric car market by 2030. This means all the existing cars will be replaced by electric vehicles on the road. This is being done to end dependency on fossil fuel and curb pollution. But is the auto industry prepared for the change? One of India's biggest automaker Maruti Suzuki India reveals its plans to go fully electric. "We remains committed to electric vehicles, but we don’t have the technology yet to make the batteries in India," Maruti Suzuki India Chairman RC Bhargava said on Thursday. Speaking at a press conference, Bhargava said, "The electric vehicles is the most viable option as far as reducing the emissions is concerned, but making the batteries remains a challenge. Maruti has a plant in Gujarat where batteries are being made but to meet the target of EVs that the government has planned is a difficult task. The government plans to have 40% of the cars to be EVs. Now that is a very stiff target to achieve as far as production of batteries is concerned." He agreed with the fact that dependence on oil needs to be reduced but the material used to make these batteries - lithium and cobalt - has to be imported. "That will make us dependent on the countries which produce these materials," Bhargava said. "And even if the supply side is sorted, question still remains about the infrastructure to have enough charging ports around to make it viable for customers to use EVs." India has millions of cars and growing annually at a rate of nearly 10 per cent. Many activists have raised concerns about rising number of cars and the government has pushed for adoption a more cleaner mode of transport - electric vehicles. The National Green Tribunal (NGT) recently banned diesel vehicles of more than 2000cc in Delhi and areas around the national capital after the air quality levels plunged to the lowest levels. "Everything is at discussion level. Companies have been investing in R&D to make EVs feasible. According to me, there is no point in making a vehicle if we can’t sell it. We have to keep our customers in the centre," said Bhargava. However, he assured that Maruti will come up with its first EV by 2020. Maruti is ready to invest and assist in the R&D of electric vehicles but making such vehicles for Indian market is not going to happen soon, he added. "We plan to launch a countrywide survey to get feedback from customers about their requirements which will be completed by February next year. This will help in understanding the needs of the customers vis-a-vis governments plan to launch EVs," Bhargava said.

Maruti raises questions over India's readiness to embrace electric vehicles

The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) has&nbsp;recommended that sixty percent of all new vehicle sales in the country should employ greener technologies like hybrids and other alternative fuels by the year 2030 for a complete shift towards electric vehicle regime by 2047.&nbsp;

SIAM on Wednesday presented a roadmap for the complete shift towards electric vehicle regime by 2047.

SIAM, which has suggested that forty percent of all new vehicle sales in the country should be electric vehicles by 2030, noted that all new vehicle sales for intra-city public transport fleets should be electric by 2030.

It also recommended that sixty percent of all new vehicle sales in the country should employ greener technologies like hybrids and other alternative fuels by the year 2030.&quot;To ensure smooth phasing in of pure electric vehicles and to sustain the transition to cleaner fossil fuel vehicles, the IC engine upgradation must continue over the next decade or so. Progressively cleaner fossil fuel vehicles would be an essential stepping stone in this journey towards hundred percent electric vehicle regime. Finally, all new vehicle sales should be the electric vehicle by 2047,&quot; SIAM said in an official release.

Dr Abhay Firodia, President, SIAM in a statement said that to make sure that this vision is realized, the industry, government and various stakeholders will need to collaborate and invest with 100 percent commitment. He further emphasised that the proposed policy measures by SIAM would be needed for creating a robust market and manufacturing eco-system for electric vehicles in the country and such a policy must be sustained over time to enable the industry to commit investments with full confidence.

Firodia also added that the policy should allow outcomes in a planned manner to ensure that the necessary transformation takes place with the minimum disruption and socio-economic impact in terms of industrial growth, employment and livelihood of people in the auto industry.

SIAM has made these recommendations in the White Paper on Electric Vehicles submitted to the government in line with the vision of Government of India of 100 percent electric vehicles for public mobility and 40 percent electric vehicles for personal mobility by 2030.&nbsp;

The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers presented a roadmap for the shift Wednesday

The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) has recommended that sixty percent of all new vehicle sales in the country should employ greener technologies like hybrids and other alternative fuels by the year 2030 for a complete shift towards electric vehicle regime by 2047. SIAM on Wednesday presented a roadmap for the complete shift towards electric vehicle regime by 2047. SIAM, which has suggested that forty percent of all new vehicle sales in the country should be electric vehicles by 2030, noted that all new vehicle sales for intra-city public transport fleets should be electric by 2030. It also recommended that sixty percent of all new vehicle sales in the country should employ greener technologies like hybrids and other alternative fuels by the year 2030."To ensure smooth phasing in of pure electric vehicles and to sustain the transition to cleaner fossil fuel vehicles, the IC engine upgradation must continue over the next decade or so. Progressively cleaner fossil fuel vehicles would be an essential stepping stone in this journey towards hundred percent electric vehicle regime. Finally, all new vehicle sales should be the electric vehicle by 2047," SIAM said in an official release. Dr Abhay Firodia, President, SIAM in a statement said that to make sure that this vision is realized, the industry, government and various stakeholders will need to collaborate and invest with 100 percent commitment. He further emphasised that the proposed policy measures by SIAM would be needed for creating a robust market and manufacturing eco-system for electric vehicles in the country and such a policy must be sustained over time to enable the industry to commit investments with full confidence. Firodia also added that the policy should allow outcomes in a planned manner to ensure that the necessary transformation takes place with the minimum disruption and socio-economic impact in terms of industrial growth, employment and livelihood of people in the auto industry. SIAM has made these recommendations in the White Paper on Electric Vehicles submitted to the government in line with the vision of Government of India of 100 percent electric vehicles for public mobility and 40 percent electric vehicles for personal mobility by 2030.

SIAM wants all cars in India to be electric by 2047

By - Amy Myers Jaffe &amp; Lewis Fulton

When will cars powered by gas-guzzling internal combustion engines become obsolete? Not as soon as it seems, even with the latest automotive news out of Europe.

<a href="https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/pressreleases/210058/volvo-cars-to-go-all-electric">First, Volvo announced</a> it would begin to phase out the production of cars that run solely on gasoline or diesel by 2019 by only releasing new models that are electric or plug-in hybrids. <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/06/technology/france-cars-gas-electric-diesel/index.html">Then, France</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-25/u-k-to-ban-diesel-and-petrol-cars-from-2040-daily-telegraph">the U.K.</a> declared they would ban sales of gas and diesel-powered cars by 2040. Underscoring this trend is data from Norway, as electric models amounted to <a href="https://electrek.co/2017/07/04/electric-car-norway-tesla-model-x/">42 per cent of Norwegian new car sales</a> in June.

<a href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2015-08-31/europe-oil-consumption-peaked-2005/">European demand for oil</a> to propel its passenger vehicles has been falling for years. Many experts expect a sharper decline in the years ahead as the shift toward electric vehicles spreads across the world. And that raises questions about whether surging electric vehicle sales will ultimately cause the global oil market, which has grown on average by 1 to 2 per cent a year for decades and now totals <a href="https://www.iea.org/about/faqs/oil/">96 million barrels per day</a>, to decline after hitting a ceiling.

Energy experts call this concept &ldquo;peak oil demand.&rdquo; We are debating when and if this will occur.

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false"><img alt="" draggable="false" src="http://s.wionews.com/photos/untitled%20design%20(1)-20170818045939.jpg" />
<div class="media-description">
The sun isn&rsquo;t set on the oil industry just yet, but experts say oil demand could max out within a few decades. (Others)
</div>
<a class="close-mark close-div" href="javascript:void(0)" id="jqclosemark">&times;</a></div>

A forecast with caveats

The International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents 29 oil-importing industrial countries, produces bellwether forecasts that foresee electric cars phasing in slowly. Its baseline projection envisions <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/global-ev-outlook-2017.html">140 million electric vehicles</a> on the world&rsquo;s roads by 2040, or about 7 per cent of all passenger vehicles at that point. In comparison, only two million electric vehicles are operating today &ndash; 0.2 per cent of the <a href="http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1093560_1-2-billion-vehicles-on-worlds-roads-now-2-billion-by-2035-report">1.2 billion</a> on the road. The IEA estimates this shift will save nearly two million barrels per day of oil, relative to its business-as-usual projection of the world using at least 70 million barrels of oil per day for transportation by 2040. That consumption level would mark a 30 per cent increase from roughly 54 million barrels now.

If electric vehicles sales grow faster than the IEA expects, that projection might miss the mark. Should that happen, would global oil demand flatten or decline?

Our research at the Institute of Transportation Studies at the <a href="https://its.ucdavis.edu/blog-post/what-happens-when-demand-for-oil-peaks/">University of California, Davis</a> shows that encouraging electric vehicle purchases is just one-way policymakers can help phase out oil consumption &ndash; one key to reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that stoke climate change and health-threatening pollution.

Given the dominance of internal combustion engine passenger vehicles, which include cars, SUVs, and light trucks, replacing them all with <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421510002739">electric models</a> will take decades. Automobiles are durable goods that typically remain on the road for 10 to 15 years. Not all drivers will buy a new car, let alone an electric one, soon.

In other words, even if (hypothetically) all new car sales were to instantly turn electric, it would likely be sometime after 2030 before gasoline cars would disappear. Besides, passenger vehicles consume only about 26 per cent of the oil used worldwide. Given these stubborn realities and the fact that electric vehicles still represent a tiny portion of new-car sales, reaching a peak in oil demand by 2040 would require more than widespread conversion to electric-powered cars.

But together with other trends taking shape, electric vehicle growth could potentially revolutionize transportation enough for oil consumption to stop growing within this time frame.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/179839/area14mp/file-20170726-30152-1rjjtiu.jpg"><img alt="" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/179839/width754/file-20170726-30152-1rjjtiu.jpg" /></a>

<figcaption>
Waymo, the self-driving car company owned by Google&rsquo;s parent Alphabet, is teaming up with rideshare company Lyft. <a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/TEC-Waymo-Lyft/09db258a44bb40a788cd104d70065416/7/0">AP Photo/Eric Risberg</a>

Ride-sharing and oil
</figcaption>
</figure>

Even if all of Europe mandated that only plug-in vehicles could be sold, starting in 2030, and China followed suit by 2035, that wouldn&rsquo;t bring about peak oil demand by 2040. According to our research, global oil consumption would keep growing until as late as 2050, in part because so many cars and trucks running on gasoline and diesel &ndash; especially in developing countries &ndash; will remain in use.

To see if oil demand could still peak by the middle of this century if not sooner, we recently began preliminary research modeling the effect of urban sustainability policies on oil demand in the future. This is an important area of analysis since <a href="https://www.usmayors.org/2017/06/02/mayors-undeterred-by-paris-climate-accord-withdrawal/">U.S. mayors</a> and municipal leaders from around the world <a href="https://apnews.com/fbb2bab100734ec194e4976ae9c17ac4">reaffirmed</a> their commitment to climate-change action after President Donald Trump decided to back out of the Paris climate accord.

Using a set of scenarios regarding potential technological and policy interventions in work we will publish soon, we modeled different future oil market demand conditions. We focused on four major trend lines: vehicle electrification, ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft, more sustainable freight that runs on alternative fuels or reduces vehicle miles traveled through computer-assisted optimization, and urban car-free zones.

We found that making more car-free pedestrian areas in big cities would make a huge dent in global oil demand. This practice &ndash; already common in cities like Copenhagen and Madrid in Europe and Chendu, China &ndash; could make oil demand max out by 2030, as long as enough governments aggressively encouraged drivers to switch to electric cars and mandated more fuel efficiency for road-based freight.

Trucks don&rsquo;t last as long as cars, and many countries are considering policies to encourage the use of <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/china-lng-transport-idUSL4N0AL6UI20130228">natural gas</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2017/04/19/toyota-rolls-out-hydrogen-semi-ahead-of-teslas-electric-truck/#1912e4db582b">hydrogen</a> or <a href="http://www.truckinginfo.com/channel/fuel-smarts/news/story/2017/01/real-world-electric-highway-tests-begin-in-sweden.aspx">electric vehicles</a> for heavy-duty trucking.

Commercial ride-sharing might also pare oil demand by reducing the number of miles driven overall if it encourages carpooling. This industry could, in addition, hasten the shift to electric vehicle dominance if &ndash; as widely reported &ndash; it begins to rely on a fleet of autonomous (driverless) vehicles, which would <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/09/19/why-most-self-driving-cars-electric/90614734/">predominantly be electric</a>.

But ride-sharing could fail to reduce fuel demand in the short term if people wind up taking more trips and traveling more miles in passenger cars and relying less on the bus, transit or city train than they used to. Some research suggests that could be happening. For example, scholars at University of California, Berkeley found that a third of the riders they surveyed in San Francisco used these services <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X15300627?via%3Dihub">instead of public transportation</a> &ndash; not to replace trips in taxis or their own cars.

In short, there is no guarantee that more ride-sharing means we&rsquo;ll burn less oil.

What cities can do

<a href="https://its.ucdavis.edu/blog-post/how-to-combine-three-revolutions-in-transportation-for-maximum-benefit-worldwide/">In another study</a>, our team at UC Davis teamed up with the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, an independent global nonprofit, and modeled three urban transportation policy scenarios. We found that global new vehicle sales in 2040 will total between 600 million, if ride-sharing and transit flourish, and 2.1 billion vehicles, should the ride-sharing industry stall &ndash; a huge difference.

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When cities establish pedestrian-only streets like Drottninggatan in the Swedish city of Stockholm, it helps people drive less. (Others)
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Metropolitan policymakers can use other tools. Creating car-free zones, making parking expensive and levying congestion taxes and road usage fees are some examples.

Overall, we believe there is a reasonable chance global oil consumption will peak by 2040. Especially, given the growing preference of city dwellers to live in places with <a href="http://www.smartertransport.uk/smarter-cambridge-transport-urban-congestion-enquiry/">less congestion and pollution</a>, a shift away from cars with internal combustion engines &ndash; and from cars in general &ndash; looks not only likely but inevitable. It also seems fairly likely that <a href="http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Are-Supermajors-Spooked-By-Peak-Oil-Demand.html">any company betting</a> on the continued growth of oil sales will be disappointed.

Goldman Sachs says the world could pass this milestone sooner. Researchers at the U.S. investment powerhouse predict that with widespread reliance on electric cars, slower economic growth and a decline in (largely petrochemical-based) <a href="https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/publications/the-new-plastics-economy-rethinking-the-future-of-plastics">plastic production</a>, global oil demand could <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/research-crude-goldman-idUKL3N1KF3ER">max out by 2030</a>.

However long it takes, shifting to electric vehicles might not make oil demand level off or decline on its own. But plug-in vehicles, combined with other policies, trends, and technologies, will clearly take a toll.

&nbsp;

<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/81081/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" width="1" />This article has been updated to correct the number of electric vehicles the International Energy Agency includes in its baseline scenario.

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-electric-vehicles-could-take-a-bite-out-of-the-oil-market-81081">original article</a>.

In the next 20 years, 138 million more electric cars will hit the road, says the International Energy Agency.

By - Amy Myers Jaffe & Lewis Fulton When will cars powered by gas-guzzling internal combustion engines become obsolete? Not as soon as it seems, even with the latest automotive news out of Europe. First, Volvo announced it would begin to phase out the production of cars that run solely on gasoline or diesel by 2019 by only releasing new models that are electric or plug-in hybrids. Then, France and the U.K. declared they would ban sales of gas and diesel-powered cars by 2040. Underscoring this trend is data from Norway, as electric models amounted to 42 per cent of Norwegian new car sales in June. European demand for oil to propel its passenger vehicles has been falling for years. Many experts expect a sharper decline in the years ahead as the shift toward electric vehicles spreads across the world. And that raises questions about whether surging electric vehicle sales will ultimately cause the global oil market, which has grown on average by 1 to 2 per cent a year for decades and now totals 96 million barrels per day, to decline after hitting a ceiling. Energy experts call this concept “peak oil demand.” We are debating when and if this will occur. The sun isn’t set on the oil industry just yet, but experts say oil demand could max out within a few decades. (Others) × A forecast with caveats The International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents 29 oil-importing industrial countries, produces bellwether forecasts that foresee electric cars phasing in slowly. Its baseline projection envisions 140 million electric vehicles on the world’s roads by 2040, or about 7 per cent of all passenger vehicles at that point. In comparison, only two million electric vehicles are operating today – 0.2 per cent of the 1.2 billion on the road. The IEA estimates this shift will save nearly two million barrels per day of oil, relative to its business-as-usual projection of the world using at least 70 million barrels of oil per day for transportation by 2040. That consumption level would mark a 30 per cent increase from roughly 54 million barrels now. If electric vehicles sales grow faster than the IEA expects, that projection might miss the mark. Should that happen, would global oil demand flatten or decline? Our research at the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis shows that encouraging electric vehicle purchases is just one-way policymakers can help phase out oil consumption – one key to reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that stoke climate change and health-threatening pollution. Given the dominance of internal combustion engine passenger vehicles, which include cars, SUVs, and light trucks, replacing them all with electric models will take decades. Automobiles are durable goods that typically remain on the road for 10 to 15 years. Not all drivers will buy a new car, let alone an electric one, soon. In other words, even if (hypothetically) all new car sales were to instantly turn electric, it would likely be sometime after 2030 before gasoline cars would disappear. Besides, passenger vehicles consume only about 26 per cent of the oil used worldwide. Given these stubborn realities and the fact that electric vehicles still represent a tiny portion of new-car sales, reaching a peak in oil demand by 2040 would require more than widespread conversion to electric-powered cars. But together with other trends taking shape, electric vehicle growth could potentially revolutionize transportation enough for oil consumption to stop growing within this time frame. Waymo, the self-driving car company owned by Google’s parent Alphabet, is teaming up with rideshare company Lyft. AP Photo/Eric Risberg Ride-sharing and oil Even if all of Europe mandated that only plug-in vehicles could be sold, starting in 2030, and China followed suit by 2035, that wouldn’t bring about peak oil demand by 2040. According to our research, global oil consumption would keep growing until as late as 2050, in part because so many cars and trucks running on gasoline and diesel – especially in developing countries – will remain in use. To see if oil demand could still peak by the middle of this century if not sooner, we recently began preliminary research modeling the effect of urban sustainability policies on oil demand in the future. This is an important area of analysis since U.S. mayors and municipal leaders from around the world reaffirmed their commitment to climate-change action after President Donald Trump decided to back out of the Paris climate accord. Using a set of scenarios regarding potential technological and policy interventions in work we will publish soon, we modeled different future oil market demand conditions. We focused on four major trend lines: vehicle electrification, ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft, more sustainable freight that runs on alternative fuels or reduces vehicle miles traveled through computer-assisted optimization, and urban car-free zones. We found that making more car-free pedestrian areas in big cities would make a huge dent in global oil demand. This practice – already common in cities like Copenhagen and Madrid in Europe and Chendu, China – could make oil demand max out by 2030, as long as enough governments aggressively encouraged drivers to switch to electric cars and mandated more fuel efficiency for road-based freight. Trucks don’t last as long as cars, and many countries are considering policies to encourage the use of natural gas, hydrogen or electric vehicles for heavy-duty trucking. Commercial ride-sharing might also pare oil demand by reducing the number of miles driven overall if it encourages carpooling. This industry could, in addition, hasten the shift to electric vehicle dominance if – as widely reported – it begins to rely on a fleet of autonomous (driverless) vehicles, which would predominantly be electric. But ride-sharing could fail to reduce fuel demand in the short term if people wind up taking more trips and traveling more miles in passenger cars and relying less on the bus, transit or city train than they used to. Some research suggests that could be happening. For example, scholars at University of California, Berkeley found that a third of the riders they surveyed in San Francisco used these services instead of public transportation – not to replace trips in taxis or their own cars. In short, there is no guarantee that more ride-sharing means we’ll burn less oil. What cities can do In another study, our team at UC Davis teamed up with the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, an independent global nonprofit, and modeled three urban transportation policy scenarios. We found that global new vehicle sales in 2040 will total between 600 million, if ride-sharing and transit flourish, and 2.1 billion vehicles, should the ride-sharing industry stall – a huge difference. When cities establish pedestrian-only streets like Drottninggatan in the Swedish city of Stockholm, it helps people drive less. (Others) × Metropolitan policymakers can use other tools. Creating car-free zones, making parking expensive and levying congestion taxes and road usage fees are some examples. Overall, we believe there is a reasonable chance global oil consumption will peak by 2040. Especially, given the growing preference of city dwellers to live in places with less congestion and pollution, a shift away from cars with internal combustion engines – and from cars in general – looks not only likely but inevitable. It also seems fairly likely that any company betting on the continued growth of oil sales will be disappointed. Goldman Sachs says the world could pass this milestone sooner. Researchers at the U.S. investment powerhouse predict that with widespread reliance on electric cars, slower economic growth and a decline in (largely petrochemical-based) plastic production, global oil demand could max out by 2030. However long it takes, shifting to electric vehicles might not make oil demand level off or decline on its own. But plug-in vehicles, combined with other policies, trends, and technologies, will clearly take a toll. This article has been updated to correct the number of electric vehicles the International Energy Agency includes in its baseline scenario. This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Will oil-driven car vanish with new electric vehicles on the roads?

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