Hearing a petition challenging the validity of the electoral bond scheme, the Supreme Court on Friday directed all political parties to disclose details of donations received via electoral bond.

Supreme Court directs all parties to disclose details of donations received via electoral bondc

Union Minister Maneka Gandhi’s statement that if Muslims do not vote for them then they would find it difficult to get her recommendation for jobs did not raise an eyebrow at all.

Today, it is very difficult to distinguish fringe from mainstream politics. Many would argue that the religious fringe has become the mainstream and the mainstream is on the periphery of political discourse, but the fact remains that politics in India is hell-bent on labelling the other in our society.

Muslims have become the new beating boy of Indian politics. Not only they have been dehumanised in the political discourse but anything to do with minority has become a bad word. It has become okay for the political class to arouse sentiments of the majority community of imagined threat posed by the Muslims of India.&nbsp;

They have been labelled as a community which got better treatment from the government whereas the majority was left to eat the crumbs. BJP-RSS have had a field day in elections whereby every senior politician has used to describe Muslims as a community which has affected the health of the country.&nbsp;

Rahul Gandhi contesting from Wayanad too was reflected from the same perspective. Yogi Adityanath has been consistently using religious idioms to describe those who are with BJP and those against it.&nbsp;

The worst is that the debate on ‘Muslim Exceptionalism’ is constructed on imagined benefits which have been secretly passed on to the Muslim community post-independence at the expense of Hindus.&nbsp;

RSS is playing with fire. Instead of integrating the Muslims in the national mainstream it is politically alienating them. Fact is barring a couple of pockets in India, Muslims have opted for Hindus to lead them politically.&nbsp;

I would say that those who chose to stay behind have never supported a Muslim leader who had a national stature.&nbsp;I call it a Jinnah complex, lest they get accused of cession again. India today is standing at the cusp of creating a huge divide between majority and minority which will stay with us. It cannot be wished away.&nbsp;

Their identity cannot be wished away. Their existence cannot be wished away. They do not need charity nor anyone needs to feel sorry for them. What is required is a political approach which allows them to be part of the system for which they are meant - which is Indian Muslims. 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.) &nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

Union Minister Maneka Gandhi’s statement that if Muslims do not vote for them then they would find it difficult to get her recommendation for jobs did not raise an eyebrow at all.

Union Minister Maneka Gandhi’s statement that if Muslims do not vote for them then they would find it difficult to get her recommendation for jobs did not raise an eyebrow at all. Today, it is very difficult to distinguish fringe from mainstream politics. Many would argue that the religious fringe has become the mainstream and the mainstream is on the periphery of political discourse, but the fact remains that politics in India is hell-bent on labelling the other in our society. Muslims have become the new beating boy of Indian politics. Not only they have been dehumanised in the political discourse but anything to do with minority has become a bad word. It has become okay for the political class to arouse sentiments of the majority community of imagined threat posed by the Muslims of India. They have been labelled as a community which got better treatment from the government whereas the majority was left to eat the crumbs. BJP-RSS have had a field day in elections whereby every senior politician has used to describe Muslims as a community which has affected the health of the country. Rahul Gandhi contesting from Wayanad too was reflected from the same perspective. Yogi Adityanath has been consistently using religious idioms to describe those who are with BJP and those against it. The worst is that the debate on ‘Muslim Exceptionalism’ is constructed on imagined benefits which have been secretly passed on to the Muslim community post-independence at the expense of Hindus. RSS is playing with fire. Instead of integrating the Muslims in the national mainstream it is politically alienating them. Fact is barring a couple of pockets in India, Muslims have opted for Hindus to lead them politically. I would say that those who chose to stay behind have never supported a Muslim leader who had a national stature. I call it a Jinnah complex, lest they get accused of cession again. India today is standing at the cusp of creating a huge divide between majority and minority which will stay with us. It cannot be wished away. Their identity cannot be wished away. Their existence cannot be wished away. They do not need charity nor anyone needs to feel sorry for them. What is required is a political approach which allows them to be part of the system for which they are meant - which is Indian Muslims. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Political marginalisation of Muslims in Indian politics

Final results from this week's Israeli election published Friday left<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/netanyahu-looks-to-form-right-wing-government-after-victory-209551"> Benjamin Netanyahu</a> on course to remain prime minister although there were reports of pressure on him not to form another narrow right-wing coalition.

The Maariv newspaper quoted a senior official as saying that President Reuven Rivlin was trying to convene a meeting between Netanyahu and his defeated centrist challenger Benny Gantz on forming a broad government of national unity.

Such a government would enjoy a comfortable majority in Israel's 120-seat parliament and enable it to take difficult decisions on public spending cuts and the future of controversial military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews free of pressure from special interest groups.

A spokesman for the president's office said he had no word of any plans for such a meeting, when contacted by AFP.

No political party in Israel's more than 70-year history has ever won a majority entirely alone and Netanyahu faces a choice between forming a new coalition of right-wing and religious parties, or a grand alliance with the centre.

Speaking after declaring victory in Tuesday's election, he pledged to form a right-wing government.

But the looming prospect of indictments in several corruption cases against him, which he is determined to fight from office, makes him vulnerable to demands for concessions from smaller party allies.

The final results gave Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party 36 votes, one more than Gantz's centrist Blue and White alliance.

It was also one more seat than preliminary results had given to the Likud.

But the United Torah Judaism party representing Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox Jews, won seven seats, one less than in the preliminary results, meaning that the right-wing and religious bloc still commands a total of 65 seats.

The final results confirmed that the newly formed far-right party of two prominent members of the outgoing government, Education Minister Naftali Bennett and Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, failed to pass the three-per cent threshold required to win seats in parliament.

The poor showing by their New Right party, which had been projected to be a major potential coalition partner, was one of the upsets of the election.

Final results from this week's Israeli election published Friday left Benjamin Netanyahu on course to remain prime minister although there were reports of pressure on him not to form another narrow right-wing coalition.

Final results from this week's Israeli election published Friday left Benjamin Netanyahu on course to remain prime minister although there were reports of pressure on him not to form another narrow right-wing coalition. The Maariv newspaper quoted a senior official as saying that President Reuven Rivlin was trying to convene a meeting between Netanyahu and his defeated centrist challenger Benny Gantz on forming a broad government of national unity. Such a government would enjoy a comfortable majority in Israel's 120-seat parliament and enable it to take difficult decisions on public spending cuts and the future of controversial military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews free of pressure from special interest groups. A spokesman for the president's office said he had no word of any plans for such a meeting, when contacted by AFP. No political party in Israel's more than 70-year history has ever won a majority entirely alone and Netanyahu faces a choice between forming a new coalition of right-wing and religious parties, or a grand alliance with the centre. Speaking after declaring victory in Tuesday's election, he pledged to form a right-wing government. But the looming prospect of indictments in several corruption cases against him, which he is determined to fight from office, makes him vulnerable to demands for concessions from smaller party allies. The final results gave Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party 36 votes, one more than Gantz's centrist Blue and White alliance. It was also one more seat than preliminary results had given to the Likud. But the United Torah Judaism party representing Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox Jews, won seven seats, one less than in the preliminary results, meaning that the right-wing and religious bloc still commands a total of 65 seats. The final results confirmed that the newly formed far-right party of two prominent members of the outgoing government, Education Minister Naftali Bennett and Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, failed to pass the three-per cent threshold required to win seats in parliament. The poor showing by their New Right party, which had been projected to be a major potential coalition partner, was one of the upsets of the election.

Final Israel election results leave Netanyahu on course

The BJP’s vision document for the 2019 elections is a cocktail of the old and the new, as well as an assertion of certain narratives related to national security that have resonated with the people in recent months. The old has, among other things, its commitment to the construction of a Ram temple in Ayodhya in a lawful and harmonious manner. The new has a roadmap to make India a five-trillion-dollar economy, a massive push to infrastructure, further booster shots for the Make in India campaign, employment generation ideas and a more simplified Goods and Services Tax regime. But it is the party’s position on national security which stands out, primarily because both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his senior party colleagues have made it a key election issue. The other reason is that the BJP’s commitment in the 'Sankalp Patra' on this subject contrasts sharply with that of the Congress’s promise in its manifesto.&nbsp;

The BJP’s stand on Article 370 and Article 35A, which are exclusive to Jammu &amp; Kashmir, have been known for long. But the underlining of its commitment to scrap the two provisions becomes especially important in an election season. The party seems to have come around to the view that one of the ways to effectively tackle the problems that the state keeps throwing up at regular intervals is to divest it of the special provisions which were supposed to have helped integrate it better with the rest of India. &nbsp;

The other reason for the BJP to give the issue prominence in its vision document was to put the Congress on the defensive. The Congress had in its manifesto promised to retain Article 370. It’s position on Article 35A too is that of maintaining the status quo. However, the popular perception nationwide seems to be veering towards a rethink on these provisions, and that fits well with the BJP’s overall nationalist agenda. &nbsp;

The BJP would be pleased with the response after it set the cat among the pigeons. Both the state’s leading parties, the National Conference and the Peoples Democratic Party have reacted strongly against the promise and warned that any tinkering with the two provisions would result in India losing hold over Kashmir. This is playing straight into the BJP’s hand since the party has for long been maintaining that these parties promote soft separatism and are not just reluctant to act against separatists but also back them when the Centre acts against them. There is more than a grain of truth in the BJP’s allegation, and taking the matter to the people helps the party burnish its nationalist credentials.&nbsp;

One may wonder if such strong statements do not harm the BJP’s prospects in Kashmir valley. The first fact is that the BJP has little electoral prospects in that region. The second fact is that there is a constituency beyond Kashmir in the state — Jammu, for instance, where the BJP has a strong presence and which would be more than satisfied with the party’s position on the issue. But even more importantly, there is the larger constituency beyond the state itself which aligns with the BJP’s thoughts on the matter and can help the party garner more seats nationally.&nbsp;&nbsp;

The 'Sankalp Patra' also promises to strengthen the country’s Armed Forces, have zero tolerance to terror, and continue to give a free hand to the forces to deal with terror. Read alongside the Congress manifesto which has spoken about reviewing the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, the BJP’s vision document virtually endorses AFSPA and leaves the issue to be decided in consultation with the Armed Forces. &nbsp;

In confirmation of its belligerent stand on anti-national activities, the vision document does not, as the Congress manifesto does, speak of scrapping the sedition law. Here it’s important to note that the vision document commits the party to “taking necessary and effective steps against Left-wing extremism to eliminate this menace in the next five years”. The connection cannot be missed, given that many Maoist sympathisers have been in recent months facing the heat for their support to Left-wing extremism, and the cry for charges of sedition to be slapped against them have grown from Right-wing elements.&nbsp;

The BJP’s aggressive stance, which has been reflected in the Sankalp Patra, should not surprise those who have been following the party’s election campaign. Led by Prime Minister Modi, it has made nationalism and national security, apart from development, the fulcrum of its poll narrative. The Congress has willy nilly extended a helping hand by its soft attitude, with senior Union Minister Arun Jaitely quipping that the BJP’s vision document had not been crafted by any 'tukde-tukde' group. The party clearly believes that it has the upper hand when it comes to keeping the focus on national security and nationalism.&nbsp;

&nbsp; (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.) &nbsp; 
&nbsp;

The BJP’s vision document for the 2019 elections is a cocktail of the old and the new, as well as an assertion of certain narratives related to national security that have resonated with the people in recent months.

The BJP’s vision document for the 2019 elections is a cocktail of the old and the new, as well as an assertion of certain narratives related to national security that have resonated with the people in recent months. The old has, among other things, its commitment to the construction of a Ram temple in Ayodhya in a lawful and harmonious manner. The new has a roadmap to make India a five-trillion-dollar economy, a massive push to infrastructure, further booster shots for the Make in India campaign, employment generation ideas and a more simplified Goods and Services Tax regime. But it is the party’s position on national security which stands out, primarily because both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his senior party colleagues have made it a key election issue. The other reason is that the BJP’s commitment in the 'Sankalp Patra' on this subject contrasts sharply with that of the Congress’s promise in its manifesto. The BJP’s stand on Article 370 and Article 35A, which are exclusive to Jammu & Kashmir, have been known for long. But the underlining of its commitment to scrap the two provisions becomes especially important in an election season. The party seems to have come around to the view that one of the ways to effectively tackle the problems that the state keeps throwing up at regular intervals is to divest it of the special provisions which were supposed to have helped integrate it better with the rest of India. The other reason for the BJP to give the issue prominence in its vision document was to put the Congress on the defensive. The Congress had in its manifesto promised to retain Article 370. It’s position on Article 35A too is that of maintaining the status quo. However, the popular perception nationwide seems to be veering towards a rethink on these provisions, and that fits well with the BJP’s overall nationalist agenda. The BJP would be pleased with the response after it set the cat among the pigeons. Both the state’s leading parties, the National Conference and the Peoples Democratic Party have reacted strongly against the promise and warned that any tinkering with the two provisions would result in India losing hold over Kashmir. This is playing straight into the BJP’s hand since the party has for long been maintaining that these parties promote soft separatism and are not just reluctant to act against separatists but also back them when the Centre acts against them. There is more than a grain of truth in the BJP’s allegation, and taking the matter to the people helps the party burnish its nationalist credentials. One may wonder if such strong statements do not harm the BJP’s prospects in Kashmir valley. The first fact is that the BJP has little electoral prospects in that region. The second fact is that there is a constituency beyond Kashmir in the state — Jammu, for instance, where the BJP has a strong presence and which would be more than satisfied with the party’s position on the issue. But even more importantly, there is the larger constituency beyond the state itself which aligns with the BJP’s thoughts on the matter and can help the party garner more seats nationally. The 'Sankalp Patra' also promises to strengthen the country’s Armed Forces, have zero tolerance to terror, and continue to give a free hand to the forces to deal with terror. Read alongside the Congress manifesto which has spoken about reviewing the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, the BJP’s vision document virtually endorses AFSPA and leaves the issue to be decided in consultation with the Armed Forces. In confirmation of its belligerent stand on anti-national activities, the vision document does not, as the Congress manifesto does, speak of scrapping the sedition law. Here it’s important to note that the vision document commits the party to “taking necessary and effective steps against Left-wing extremism to eliminate this menace in the next five years”. The connection cannot be missed, given that many Maoist sympathisers have been in recent months facing the heat for their support to Left-wing extremism, and the cry for charges of sedition to be slapped against them have grown from Right-wing elements. The BJP’s aggressive stance, which has been reflected in the Sankalp Patra, should not surprise those who have been following the party’s election campaign. Led by Prime Minister Modi, it has made nationalism and national security, apart from development, the fulcrum of its poll narrative. The Congress has willy nilly extended a helping hand by its soft attitude, with senior Union Minister Arun Jaitely quipping that the BJP’s vision document had not been crafted by any 'tukde-tukde' group. The party clearly believes that it has the upper hand when it comes to keeping the focus on national security and nationalism. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

National security BJP's 'sankalp' as party manifesto vows to repeal Articles 370 & 35A, end left-wing extremism

Electing a government to govern the nation/states for the next five years by casting vote in a polling booth is an onerous responsibility on shoulders of every voter in a democratic country. Unfortunately, even after seven decades of independence and numerous elections held in the country so far, in spite of extensive appeals by the Election Commission, &nbsp;government and other celebrities, a large number of voters still perceive, voting is an optional luxury enjoying low priority.

Enormous expenses out of taxpayer's revenue, precious time of serving government officials and the quantum of influence that every election result wreaks on everyone's life and future, are almost obscure to them. Electing a government is a democratic activity of utmost significance and voters' indifference to casting vote is a profligacy nation can no more afford.

Owing to burgeoning complexity of governance, high aspiration of the masses, technological advances, intense international pulls and pressures, country's diplomatic status in comity of nations with respect to treaties and agreements, transformation of social values, frequent natural calamities, low intensity wars etc, have rendered it all the more essential rather inevitable for every voter to unhesitatingly exercise his/her right to vote to elect a responsible, accountable and determined government to steer the country forward amidst turbulence of all sorts. Any negligence or indifference towards elections in view of these developments within and outside the country would now amount to an offence against the nation.&nbsp;

The idea of making voting compulsory by law has arrived as an idea of national importance. All eligible voters holding valid voter cards must cast their votes compulsorily. In case of those who are unable to visit polling booth for any inevitable reason whatsoever, may be allowed to cast their votes digitally.

Yes, provisions for digital voting must be raised as quite a significant number of voters may not be available on the appointed day of polling at their designated addresses. A national English newspaper had conducted a campaign too, in this regard and response appeared to be fairly positive. A certain penalty may be imposed on those who refuse or fail to cast their votes and the amount may be automatically deducted from their Aadhaar-linked bank accounts invoking Direct Benefit Transfer channels.

After the idea of compulsory voting is successfully implanted, popular opinion must address the menace of legislators qualifying to enter the House with less than 50% of votes polled in a constituency. The root-cause of the menace is hidden in the multiplicity of political parties and a few bogus/non-entities contesting elections, who may well be dubbed mischief-mongers.

History is witness to one common man, J Dharatipakada, who used to contest every Presidential election, forcing full scale polling when opponent happened to be a unanimous candidate who had the support of all recognised political parties. That compelled the government to enforce 'Terms &amp; Conditions' for Presidential contestants. This example may be enlarged to include as many levels of elections as possible. Multiple regional parties came into being as a direct reward of Constitutional high-handedness of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, who never cared a damn to regional aspirations or accorded even minimum courtesies to state leaders.

The examples of T Anjaiah from Andhra Pradesh and HN Bahuguna from Uttar Pradesh are too well known to be described. It was Anjaiah's humiliation that prodded NT Rama Rao to float his Telugu Desam Party to reclaim the honour of 'Telugu Bidda'.

As the Indian National Congress vehemently pursued 'Divide, Rule And Destroy Policy' bequeathed by British colonials stoking regionalism all over leading to almost every other state having their own regional political party.

Whenever these 'pocket' versions of parties entered into ramshackle political alliances to claim power at the Centre, they led to 'waiting-room' Prime Ministers with resignation letters in their front pockets and regional satraps demanding their share of flesh, much to the detriment of national interest.

The political scenario has started gradually drifting towards equipoise concurrently with expansion of an all-inclusive BJP across length and breadth of the country. The BJP has been acting as a pain-balm on bruised regional aspirations, self-respect and egos too. I am quite optimistic, in years to come, unfortunate development of narrow-minded regional parties shall be relegated into oblivion and nation shall evolve into a matured democracy with two or three strong nationalistic political parties. &nbsp;

The next issue to be addressed is the weird phenomenon of NOTA. Dr Subramanian Swamy had dubbed it a Naxalite provision with the sole intention to destroy elections and bring in anarchy. The RSS chief too had spoken strongly against NOTA in one of his widely attended and circulated evocations held at Vijnana Bhavan. In the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, RSS has decided to embark on door-to-door campaign against NOTA. It is a debilitating feature in our election process that allows even criminals to enter legislatures and it must be abolished by law.&nbsp;

The country is not a stranger to the doctrine of compulsory voting. Gujarat Local Authorities Laws (Amendment) Act, 2009, introduced an 'Obligation To Vote' at the municipal and panchayat levels in the state. The Act empowered an election officer to serve notice to a voter on the ground of failure to vote. Such a voter is called upon to submit credible reason(s) within a period of one month failing which the voter would be liable to be declared a "defaulter".

A defaulter-voter enjoys the privilege of challenging the order before a designated appellate officer whose decision shall be final and mandatory. The Act allows exemptions for individuals from voting if incapable due to illness, absence from the state of Gujarat on the day of polling or for other reasons laid down in Rules. Outside India, several countries have introduced compulsory voting for their citizens viz Australia (beginning with Queensland in 1915), Belgium in 1894, Brazil, Ecuador in 1936, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, North Korea (only one candidate appears on the ballot), Nauru in 1965, Peru in 1933, Singapore, Uruguay in 1934, Switzerland in 1974 and Slovakia.&nbsp;

It is for certain, if casting vote is not rendered mandatory by law, sooner than later shall we be compelled to comb for remaining traces of democracy in our country.

(This article was originally published on The ZeeNews. Read the <a href="https://zeenews.india.com/blogs/it-is-time-for-india-to-make-voting-compulsory-2193921.html">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.) &nbsp;

Electing a government to govern the nation/states for the next five years by casting vote in a polling booth is an onerous responsibility on shoulders of every voter in a democratic country.

Electing a government to govern the nation/states for the next five years by casting vote in a polling booth is an onerous responsibility on shoulders of every voter in a democratic country. Unfortunately, even after seven decades of independence and numerous elections held in the country so far, in spite of extensive appeals by the Election Commission, government and other celebrities, a large number of voters still perceive, voting is an optional luxury enjoying low priority. Enormous expenses out of taxpayer's revenue, precious time of serving government officials and the quantum of influence that every election result wreaks on everyone's life and future, are almost obscure to them. Electing a government is a democratic activity of utmost significance and voters' indifference to casting vote is a profligacy nation can no more afford. Owing to burgeoning complexity of governance, high aspiration of the masses, technological advances, intense international pulls and pressures, country's diplomatic status in comity of nations with respect to treaties and agreements, transformation of social values, frequent natural calamities, low intensity wars etc, have rendered it all the more essential rather inevitable for every voter to unhesitatingly exercise his/her right to vote to elect a responsible, accountable and determined government to steer the country forward amidst turbulence of all sorts. Any negligence or indifference towards elections in view of these developments within and outside the country would now amount to an offence against the nation. The idea of making voting compulsory by law has arrived as an idea of national importance. All eligible voters holding valid voter cards must cast their votes compulsorily. In case of those who are unable to visit polling booth for any inevitable reason whatsoever, may be allowed to cast their votes digitally. Yes, provisions for digital voting must be raised as quite a significant number of voters may not be available on the appointed day of polling at their designated addresses. A national English newspaper had conducted a campaign too, in this regard and response appeared to be fairly positive. A certain penalty may be imposed on those who refuse or fail to cast their votes and the amount may be automatically deducted from their Aadhaar-linked bank accounts invoking Direct Benefit Transfer channels. After the idea of compulsory voting is successfully implanted, popular opinion must address the menace of legislators qualifying to enter the House with less than 50% of votes polled in a constituency. The root-cause of the menace is hidden in the multiplicity of political parties and a few bogus/non-entities contesting elections, who may well be dubbed mischief-mongers. History is witness to one common man, J Dharatipakada, who used to contest every Presidential election, forcing full scale polling when opponent happened to be a unanimous candidate who had the support of all recognised political parties. That compelled the government to enforce 'Terms & Conditions' for Presidential contestants. This example may be enlarged to include as many levels of elections as possible. Multiple regional parties came into being as a direct reward of Constitutional high-handedness of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, who never cared a damn to regional aspirations or accorded even minimum courtesies to state leaders. The examples of T Anjaiah from Andhra Pradesh and HN Bahuguna from Uttar Pradesh are too well known to be described. It was Anjaiah's humiliation that prodded NT Rama Rao to float his Telugu Desam Party to reclaim the honour of 'Telugu Bidda'. As the Indian National Congress vehemently pursued 'Divide, Rule And Destroy Policy' bequeathed by British colonials stoking regionalism all over leading to almost every other state having their own regional political party. Whenever these 'pocket' versions of parties entered into ramshackle political alliances to claim power at the Centre, they led to 'waiting-room' Prime Ministers with resignation letters in their front pockets and regional satraps demanding their share of flesh, much to the detriment of national interest. The political scenario has started gradually drifting towards equipoise concurrently with expansion of an all-inclusive BJP across length and breadth of the country. The BJP has been acting as a pain-balm on bruised regional aspirations, self-respect and egos too. I am quite optimistic, in years to come, unfortunate development of narrow-minded regional parties shall be relegated into oblivion and nation shall evolve into a matured democracy with two or three strong nationalistic political parties. The next issue to be addressed is the weird phenomenon of NOTA. Dr Subramanian Swamy had dubbed it a Naxalite provision with the sole intention to destroy elections and bring in anarchy. The RSS chief too had spoken strongly against NOTA in one of his widely attended and circulated evocations held at Vijnana Bhavan. In the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, RSS has decided to embark on door-to-door campaign against NOTA. It is a debilitating feature in our election process that allows even criminals to enter legislatures and it must be abolished by law. The country is not a stranger to the doctrine of compulsory voting. Gujarat Local Authorities Laws (Amendment) Act, 2009, introduced an 'Obligation To Vote' at the municipal and panchayat levels in the state. The Act empowered an election officer to serve notice to a voter on the ground of failure to vote. Such a voter is called upon to submit credible reason(s) within a period of one month failing which the voter would be liable to be declared a "defaulter". A defaulter-voter enjoys the privilege of challenging the order before a designated appellate officer whose decision shall be final and mandatory. The Act allows exemptions for individuals from voting if incapable due to illness, absence from the state of Gujarat on the day of polling or for other reasons laid down in Rules. Outside India, several countries have introduced compulsory voting for their citizens viz Australia (beginning with Queensland in 1915), Belgium in 1894, Brazil, Ecuador in 1936, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, North Korea (only one candidate appears on the ballot), Nauru in 1965, Peru in 1933, Singapore, Uruguay in 1934, Switzerland in 1974 and Slovakia. It is for certain, if casting vote is not rendered mandatory by law, sooner than later shall we be compelled to comb for remaining traces of democracy in our country. (This article was originally published on The ZeeNews. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Lok Sabha polls 2019: It is time for India to make voting compulsory

The reluctance to concede ground to allies and its choice of candidates are sufficient indications that Congress is experimenting with the 2019 general elections to revive its organisational structure, rather than halt BJP’s march. &nbsp;

This is particularly pronounced in politically crucial UP. &nbsp;

Political pundits want to know why Congress has changed its strategy from consolidating secular and democratic forces, to going alone in key states. &nbsp;

Even its earlier plans to prevent the consolidation of Hindu votes in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi by adopting soft Hindutva, has been ignored. &nbsp;&nbsp;

Unlike Sonia Gandhi’s strategy that led to the defeat of Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government in 2004, Rahul Gandhi has chosen to rebuild the mortgaged and depleted Congress 'haveli’, instead of dealing with the real situation on the ground.&nbsp;

At a time, when the grand old party faces a real political threat, it is surprising that it was still not ready to concede ground to like-minded allies.

Even in Jammu and Kashmir, where the party has no base, it has refused to part with two seats in the Kashmir Valley to ally National Conference or the PDP. Both these parties left two seats in the Jammu region to the Congress, making the contest a cliff hanger for the BJP. &nbsp;

Instead, the Congress has fielded candidates from the north and south Kashmir seats. &nbsp; &nbsp;

In stitching alliances, the NDA has taken the lead, cobbling together 40 parties. It has succeeded in bringing in estranged partners like Shiv Sena and Asom Gana Parishad, who were critical of Modi over the years. &nbsp;

Alliances need sacrifices and BJP has shown the way by sacrificing its ministers and sitting MPs to concede seats to its allies. &nbsp;

In the words of analyst Anurag Modi, the common village voter is hardly influenced by TV debates. His voice may not be heard by those sitting at the highest pedestals, but his time comes when India votes. &nbsp;

Congress’s main challenge is to avoid the fragmentation of this vote. This can only be possible if Rahul Gandhi ignores sycophants around him and toes his mother’s tried and tested line.

Rahul Gandhi’s experiment fits in with the resolution adopted at the September 1998 Congress session at the scenic Pachmarhi hills in Madhya Pradesh. &nbsp;

The party decided to reclaim its lost ground by going to the polls alone, with the exception of few states like Tamil Nadu.

Leaders, more sycophantic than visionary, told Sonia Gandhi in 1998 that the NDA will disappear and meet a fate similar to the Janata Party in 1979, which had ousted the Congress under powerful Indira Gandhi for just two years. &nbsp;

It would appear that Rahul Gandhi has reached similar conclusions about the secular and regional parties thriving at the expense of the Congress. &nbsp;

A senior Congress leader bluntly confided to this writer that while BJP is a political rival, regional secular parties were enemies. “They have eaten into our vote base, making us non-existent in West Bengal, Bihar, UP and Tamil Nadu,” he said. &nbsp;

Sonia learned that going alone will harm the party. In the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, fighting solo under Sonia Gandhi, the Congress lost more ground, depleting its numbers further. &nbsp;

Thereafter, the party lost state after state in the assembly elections. Following the 2002 Gujarat riots, CPI(M) general secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet approached Sonia and asked her to review the Pachmarhi resolution.&nbsp;

In a brainstorming session at Shimla in July 2003, the party adopted an open-minded approach on pre-poll and post-poll alliances, which, it said will be implemented at the national level.

Soon after the Karnataka assembly elections last year in May, a revival of the 2004 Congress spirit to lead liberal and democratic forces, resurfaced.&nbsp;

It was, in fact, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati who immediately dialled Sonia after the Karnataka election results indicated a fractured mandate. &nbsp;

She reportedly brought the Congress and Janata Dal (S) chief, HD Devegowda, together to keep the BJP at bay in the southern state. She called up Devegowda and convinced him to take Congress support.&nbsp;

Naturally, questions are being asked as to why Rahul didn’t restructure or rebuild the organisation in the last five years.

After its worst defeat in 2014, it was a godsend scenario for the current Congress president to initiate reforms and delegate powers to district committees to choose candidates and be accountable. He had ample time to get the organisation come out of the grip of family loyalists.

The result is that Congress remains in tatters, as Rahul has done nothing except make noises about “structural reforms”. &nbsp;

He first told workers in UP that the party would not be revived in the state unless it contests on its own and then justified an alliance with the Samajwadi Party in the last assembly election. &nbsp;

Even though Congress continues to be a central column for any secular alliance, there is need to have clarity on alliances.

Many opposition leaders asked the Congress to emulate a Bihar-type grand alliance at the national level by sacrificing ego.&nbsp;

Tactically, they asked the party to focus on west India, including Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and leave eastern India, basically UP and Bihar, to regional parties to limit seats of the BJP-led NDA. &nbsp;

But in the words of Rasheed Kidwai, a veteran writer on Congress affairs, the party’s 2019 story is bad and muddled. &nbsp;

In addition to Rahul Gandhi’s inexperience, the grand old party lacks self-belief and its ability to communicate and connect, even though it has produced a really sound manifesto. But then Indian elections are not contested on manifestos alone.&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-ignoring-key-election-allies-what-is-congress-gameplan-for-ls-poll-2019-2736401">original article)</a>

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

The reluctance to concede ground to allies and its choice of candidates are sufficient indications that Congress is experimenting with the 2019 general elections to revive its organisational structure, rather than halt BJP’s march.

The reluctance to concede ground to allies and its choice of candidates are sufficient indications that Congress is experimenting with the 2019 general elections to revive its organisational structure, rather than halt BJP’s march. This is particularly pronounced in politically crucial UP. Political pundits want to know why Congress has changed its strategy from consolidating secular and democratic forces, to going alone in key states. Even its earlier plans to prevent the consolidation of Hindu votes in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi by adopting soft Hindutva, has been ignored. Unlike Sonia Gandhi’s strategy that led to the defeat of Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government in 2004, Rahul Gandhi has chosen to rebuild the mortgaged and depleted Congress 'haveli’, instead of dealing with the real situation on the ground. At a time, when the grand old party faces a real political threat, it is surprising that it was still not ready to concede ground to like-minded allies. Even in Jammu and Kashmir, where the party has no base, it has refused to part with two seats in the Kashmir Valley to ally National Conference or the PDP. Both these parties left two seats in the Jammu region to the Congress, making the contest a cliff hanger for the BJP. Instead, the Congress has fielded candidates from the north and south Kashmir seats. In stitching alliances, the NDA has taken the lead, cobbling together 40 parties. It has succeeded in bringing in estranged partners like Shiv Sena and Asom Gana Parishad, who were critical of Modi over the years. Alliances need sacrifices and BJP has shown the way by sacrificing its ministers and sitting MPs to concede seats to its allies. In the words of analyst Anurag Modi, the common village voter is hardly influenced by TV debates. His voice may not be heard by those sitting at the highest pedestals, but his time comes when India votes. Congress’s main challenge is to avoid the fragmentation of this vote. This can only be possible if Rahul Gandhi ignores sycophants around him and toes his mother’s tried and tested line. Rahul Gandhi’s experiment fits in with the resolution adopted at the September 1998 Congress session at the scenic Pachmarhi hills in Madhya Pradesh. The party decided to reclaim its lost ground by going to the polls alone, with the exception of few states like Tamil Nadu. Leaders, more sycophantic than visionary, told Sonia Gandhi in 1998 that the NDA will disappear and meet a fate similar to the Janata Party in 1979, which had ousted the Congress under powerful Indira Gandhi for just two years. It would appear that Rahul Gandhi has reached similar conclusions about the secular and regional parties thriving at the expense of the Congress. A senior Congress leader bluntly confided to this writer that while BJP is a political rival, regional secular parties were enemies. “They have eaten into our vote base, making us non-existent in West Bengal, Bihar, UP and Tamil Nadu,” he said. Sonia learned that going alone will harm the party. In the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, fighting solo under Sonia Gandhi, the Congress lost more ground, depleting its numbers further. Thereafter, the party lost state after state in the assembly elections. Following the 2002 Gujarat riots, CPI(M) general secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet approached Sonia and asked her to review the Pachmarhi resolution. In a brainstorming session at Shimla in July 2003, the party adopted an open-minded approach on pre-poll and post-poll alliances, which, it said will be implemented at the national level. Soon after the Karnataka assembly elections last year in May, a revival of the 2004 Congress spirit to lead liberal and democratic forces, resurfaced. It was, in fact, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati who immediately dialled Sonia after the Karnataka election results indicated a fractured mandate. She reportedly brought the Congress and Janata Dal (S) chief, HD Devegowda, together to keep the BJP at bay in the southern state. She called up Devegowda and convinced him to take Congress support. Naturally, questions are being asked as to why Rahul didn’t restructure or rebuild the organisation in the last five years. After its worst defeat in 2014, it was a godsend scenario for the current Congress president to initiate reforms and delegate powers to district committees to choose candidates and be accountable. He had ample time to get the organisation come out of the grip of family loyalists. The result is that Congress remains in tatters, as Rahul has done nothing except make noises about “structural reforms”. He first told workers in UP that the party would not be revived in the state unless it contests on its own and then justified an alliance with the Samajwadi Party in the last assembly election. Even though Congress continues to be a central column for any secular alliance, there is need to have clarity on alliances. Many opposition leaders asked the Congress to emulate a Bihar-type grand alliance at the national level by sacrificing ego. Tactically, they asked the party to focus on west India, including Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and leave eastern India, basically UP and Bihar, to regional parties to limit seats of the BJP-led NDA. But in the words of Rasheed Kidwai, a veteran writer on Congress affairs, the party’s 2019 story is bad and muddled. In addition to Rahul Gandhi’s inexperience, the grand old party lacks self-belief and its ability to communicate and connect, even though it has produced a really sound manifesto. But then Indian elections are not contested on manifestos alone. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Ignoring key election allies: Congress lacks ability to communicate and connect

The general elections 2019 are in full swing. It is hardly surprising that the controversy over the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trails (VVPATs) is also at its peak.&nbsp;

There is a well-documented history of EVM controversy. After all, every political party has raised doubts about the machines when in opposition. But when they come to power through the same machines, doubts are not put to rest. Only we have new accusers and the controversy continues.&nbsp; 
 
In 2011, the Election Commission (EC) got a rare opportunity to test the relative strength of EVMs and ballot papers. It was to conduct bypolls in 12 seats of Andhra Pradesh assembly. These seats had fallen vacant in the wake of mass resignations in the heat of the Telangana agitation.  Polls were conducted in half the constituencies using ballot papers because of a clever ploy.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Chandrababu Naidu ensured that the number of candidates in a number of constituencies was more than 64 – which is the maximum limit the EVMs could handle. And what was the conclusion? While the results from the machines came out in four hours, the paper ballots took over forty hours. Adding to that, in the seats where polls were conducted with ballot papers, thousands of invalid votes were found. The results from both the systems were exactly the same.&nbsp;

This debate should have ended way back in 2010 when the Commission called an all-party meeting to understand concerns of the political parties on the matter. It was unanimously recommended that VVPATs be adopted as the final remedy, and we promptly accepted it. The two factories which manufacture EVMs were asked to develop VVPATs. An independent committee of professors of five different IITs was requested to monitor every aspect of the process. &nbsp;

&nbsp;A series of trials were held, followed by two full-day election simulations in five cities with varying climatic conditions – namely Cherrapunji, Delhi, Jaisalmer, Leh, Thiruvananthapuram, in July 2011 and again in 2012 in the same month. Only after the VVPATs passed all the rigorous tests of technology and climatic endurance, were they deployed successfully in 20,000 polling booths. As manufacturing progressed, all constituencies were equipped with VVPATs.&nbsp;

In 2013, the Supreme Court lauded the Commission’s decision and directed the government to release adequate funds so that VVPATs can be procured for use in all the booths in the 2019 elections. As the machines kept coming in, these were randomly deployed. Since 2017, all assembly elections are held with EVMs which are attached with VVPATs. As per the present norms, slips generated by one VVPAT in each assembly constituency are counted. Of the 1,500 machines thus counted, not a single mismatch has been found. &nbsp;

The Opposition parties have demanded that half of the total slips should be cross-checked. As many as &nbsp;23 Opposition parties have also moved the Apex Court demanding the same. A group of 73 retired bureaucrats and diplomats have written to the EC on the matter, demanding an appropriate audit of votes cast in the 2019 election. To quote the central premise of the letter, “The real issue today is not about EVMs vs paper ballots, rather it is about EVMs with perfunctory VVPAT audits vs. EVMs with proper VVPAT audit.”&nbsp;

The letter highlighted the urgent need for a statistically sound sample size “With 99.9 per cent reliability, in a suitably defined population.” The &nbsp;EC sought the advice of the Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, on an appropriate sample size that would ensure 99.99 per cent public satisfaction. The much-awaited report has finally been submitted to the EC according to the latest reports and is being examined.&nbsp;

Meanwhile, when the case came up before SC, the Chief Justice asked the Election Commission why the sample size should not be increased. EC has apparently submitted that the experts of ISI have endorsed the current sample of one VVPAT per assembly constituency. On the other hand, the sample size proposed by the political parties would delay the results by six days. All eyes are now on the SC where the case would come up next week. &nbsp; 
 
I would also like to venture a more out of the box alternative. &nbsp;

Let the top two runners up in the constituency choose any two VVPAT machines that they would like to be counted as they have the highest stake in the results. An appropriate analogy is that of the game of cricket in which two referrals are allowed for each team. This is called the Decision Review System, and ever since its introduction, the violent disputes about the controversial decisions taken by the umpire have disappeared. This could serve to do away with a large random sample being demanded at present, as only four machines per assembly would have to be counted to ensure public faith in the system.&nbsp;

EVMs, equipped with VVPATs, are the most dependable arrangement. With only a few weeks to go for the counting, the Commission or the Supreme Court must clinch the debate without any further delay. &nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.) 
&nbsp;

The general elections 2019 are in full swing. It is hardly surprising that the controversy over the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trails (VVPATs) is also at its peak.

The general elections 2019 are in full swing. It is hardly surprising that the controversy over the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trails (VVPATs) is also at its peak. There is a well-documented history of EVM controversy. After all, every political party has raised doubts about the machines when in opposition. But when they come to power through the same machines, doubts are not put to rest. Only we have new accusers and the controversy continues. In 2011, the Election Commission (EC) got a rare opportunity to test the relative strength of EVMs and ballot papers. It was to conduct bypolls in 12 seats of Andhra Pradesh assembly. These seats had fallen vacant in the wake of mass resignations in the heat of the Telangana agitation.  Polls were conducted in half the constituencies using ballot papers because of a clever ploy. Chandrababu Naidu ensured that the number of candidates in a number of constituencies was more than 64 – which is the maximum limit the EVMs could handle. And what was the conclusion? While the results from the machines came out in four hours, the paper ballots took over forty hours. Adding to that, in the seats where polls were conducted with ballot papers, thousands of invalid votes were found. The results from both the systems were exactly the same. This debate should have ended way back in 2010 when the Commission called an all-party meeting to understand concerns of the political parties on the matter. It was unanimously recommended that VVPATs be adopted as the final remedy, and we promptly accepted it. The two factories which manufacture EVMs were asked to develop VVPATs. An independent committee of professors of five different IITs was requested to monitor every aspect of the process. A series of trials were held, followed by two full-day election simulations in five cities with varying climatic conditions – namely Cherrapunji, Delhi, Jaisalmer, Leh, Thiruvananthapuram, in July 2011 and again in 2012 in the same month. Only after the VVPATs passed all the rigorous tests of technology and climatic endurance, were they deployed successfully in 20,000 polling booths. As manufacturing progressed, all constituencies were equipped with VVPATs. In 2013, the Supreme Court lauded the Commission’s decision and directed the government to release adequate funds so that VVPATs can be procured for use in all the booths in the 2019 elections. As the machines kept coming in, these were randomly deployed. Since 2017, all assembly elections are held with EVMs which are attached with VVPATs. As per the present norms, slips generated by one VVPAT in each assembly constituency are counted. Of the 1,500 machines thus counted, not a single mismatch has been found. The Opposition parties have demanded that half of the total slips should be cross-checked. As many as 23 Opposition parties have also moved the Apex Court demanding the same. A group of 73 retired bureaucrats and diplomats have written to the EC on the matter, demanding an appropriate audit of votes cast in the 2019 election. To quote the central premise of the letter, “The real issue today is not about EVMs vs paper ballots, rather it is about EVMs with perfunctory VVPAT audits vs. EVMs with proper VVPAT audit.” The letter highlighted the urgent need for a statistically sound sample size “With 99.9 per cent reliability, in a suitably defined population.” The EC sought the advice of the Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, on an appropriate sample size that would ensure 99.99 per cent public satisfaction. The much-awaited report has finally been submitted to the EC according to the latest reports and is being examined. Meanwhile, when the case came up before SC, the Chief Justice asked the Election Commission why the sample size should not be increased. EC has apparently submitted that the experts of ISI have endorsed the current sample of one VVPAT per assembly constituency. On the other hand, the sample size proposed by the political parties would delay the results by six days. All eyes are now on the SC where the case would come up next week. I would also like to venture a more out of the box alternative. Let the top two runners up in the constituency choose any two VVPAT machines that they would like to be counted as they have the highest stake in the results. An appropriate analogy is that of the game of cricket in which two referrals are allowed for each team. This is called the Decision Review System, and ever since its introduction, the violent disputes about the controversial decisions taken by the umpire have disappeared. This could serve to do away with a large random sample being demanded at present, as only four machines per assembly would have to be counted to ensure public faith in the system. EVMs, equipped with VVPATs, are the most dependable arrangement. With only a few weeks to go for the counting, the Commission or the Supreme Court must clinch the debate without any further delay. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

VVPAT-equipped EVMs are most dependable arrangement

I had begun the new year by discussing how smaller parties were going to be more important in this election season in India. Following the sad and premature demise of Goa Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar and the tumultuous politics in the state in the aftermath, I am tempted to add one more thing: the Goa model of fractious, fluid coalition governments is set to spread over a larger swathe of India as democracy takes roots and interest group politics and local issues begin to override deeper issues of ideology, national-level posturing or big party organisations.

You only have to go state by state to understand how politics has entered the phase that the Indian economy did in the aftermath of reforms that kicked off in 1991. With the rise of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a slew of regional parties across the country, it is not just that coalitions have become mainstream.

Within each party, workers and lobbies have become more demanding - much like restless software employees who smelt opportunities in a world where employers including Infosys, Wipro, IBM, Accenture and a host of others competed for talent.

Goa is a small state and it took the charisma of Parrikar to keep his flock together. His successor Pramod Sawant was sworn in after the Congress tried valiantly to form a rival government on the strength of being the single largest party in the state assembly. Sawant now has a tough task ahead in emulating Parrikar in a state where Hindutva politics has limited utility because of the rooted presence of regional outfits and 25 per cent Christian voters.&nbsp;

A key point, as one analyst observed in a TV discussion, is that defecting leaders get re-elected from their constituencies, suggesting that their confidence and their abilities can overpower the might, the ideology or the symbol of a big party. Or, for that matter, the stigma that one used to attach to defections. I think this phenomenon is spreading across India. I hope to discuss specifics some other time, but there is a general pattern that needs to be noted.

Today's slogging party worker is tomorrow's neta. Imagine. Mamata Banerjee was just a humble Congress worker on the streets of what was then Calcutta. In today's Kolkata, she rules over the state with her own Trinamool Congress that has managed to take on both the CPM and her mothership, the Indian National Congress. Modi himself has risen in the BJP from his humble worker origins in Gujarat and has successfully sidelined stalwarts like Lal Krishna Advani.

The naive idealism of the Independence movement and the Emergency era have given way to hard-as-nuts ambitions and strategies. Mastery of local issues, goodwill, oratory, lobbying and media savvy are now explicitly recognised as key political skills.

If the "high command" of any party is not willing to recognise a worker, breakaway formations and audacious defections offer them a way out. All major Indian political parties with the exception of the communist groups no longer care enough about ideology or the mood of grassroots workers enough to discourage defectors from coming in.

There may be an unwritten recognition: a so-called loyal worker is just a not-so-competent chamcha. In such a context, parties prefer a smart defector to a dubious loyalist. Or a useful defector, as we found out last week when Tom Vadakkan, a long-time Congress spokesman considered close to Sonia Gandhi, simply jumped ship to the BJP. The Kerala leader's ostensible reason (Congress disregard for the Army) and timing for the jump were so flimsy, that it looked more comic than grandiose. Vadakkan after decades sitting literally 100 metres from 10 Janpath at the Congress head office suddenly realised the party practises dynastic politics. Excuse me?

Vadakkan is not a major leader but the BJP holding a news conference to announce his entry was certainly a significant indicator of where Indian politics is going.

Caste, community and tribe still remain important political currencies in India. To top this, we may add an increasing localisation of politics. Local netas who care about the neighbourhood hospital, road or school and are/or more available to meet voters to address their various concerns build up goodwill that escapes the attention of the national media. But they do not escape the hawk eye of the high commands of parties. We have a virtual stock exchange for "winnable" politicians based on ground reports.

The scene is not much different from the technology sector, where Amazon, Microsoft and Google may love to poach each other's employees based on their CVs and industry intelligence. Talent, work, skills and energy matter more than loyalty. If the people in question are mission critical (Read: key to winning seats or forming governments), the netas matter more.

What is happening this month across political parties are just like annual appraisals and job interviews in top companies every March, prior to the start of a new financial year. Some employees get thumbs-down signals and they look for other opportunities. Smart ones feel bad when smarter ones get the chance or a new boss moves in with his/her own ideas and confidants.

In a sense, such defections and group shifts have been part of Indian history and culture. Only, generals and soldiers who used to capture territories for kings have given way to netas and chamchas who capture votes for parties.

In such a context, the stylish reference to "winnability" in political parties is an indirect admission of the harsh reality of grassroots politics: Parties don't really win on the basis of their ideals; they increasingly put their brand names on those they think are likely to win, while keeping their trademarks alive with tall talk and big spending.

 
(This article was originally published on Zee News. Read the <a href="https://zeenews.india.com/blogs/pre-poll-defections-indias-politics-is-looking-more-and-more-like-its-it-sector-2188783.html">original article)</a>

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

I had begun the new year by discussing how smaller parties were going to be more important in this election season in India. Following the sad and premature demise of Goa Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar and the tumultuous politics in the state in the aftermath, I am tempted to add one more thing: the Goa model of fractious, fluid coalition governments is set to spread over a larger swathe of India as democracy takes roots and interest group politics and local issues begin to override deeper issues of ideology, national-level posturing or big party organisations.

I had begun the new year by discussing how smaller parties were going to be more important in this election season in India. Following the sad and premature demise of Goa Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar and the tumultuous politics in the state in the aftermath, I am tempted to add one more thing: the Goa model of fractious, fluid coalition governments is set to spread over a larger swathe of India as democracy takes roots and interest group politics and local issues begin to override deeper issues of ideology, national-level posturing or big party organisations. You only have to go state by state to understand how politics has entered the phase that the Indian economy did in the aftermath of reforms that kicked off in 1991. With the rise of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a slew of regional parties across the country, it is not just that coalitions have become mainstream. Within each party, workers and lobbies have become more demanding - much like restless software employees who smelt opportunities in a world where employers including Infosys, Wipro, IBM, Accenture and a host of others competed for talent. Goa is a small state and it took the charisma of Parrikar to keep his flock together. His successor Pramod Sawant was sworn in after the Congress tried valiantly to form a rival government on the strength of being the single largest party in the state assembly. Sawant now has a tough task ahead in emulating Parrikar in a state where Hindutva politics has limited utility because of the rooted presence of regional outfits and 25 per cent Christian voters. A key point, as one analyst observed in a TV discussion, is that defecting leaders get re-elected from their constituencies, suggesting that their confidence and their abilities can overpower the might, the ideology or the symbol of a big party. Or, for that matter, the stigma that one used to attach to defections. I think this phenomenon is spreading across India. I hope to discuss specifics some other time, but there is a general pattern that needs to be noted. Today's slogging party worker is tomorrow's neta. Imagine. Mamata Banerjee was just a humble Congress worker on the streets of what was then Calcutta. In today's Kolkata, she rules over the state with her own Trinamool Congress that has managed to take on both the CPM and her mothership, the Indian National Congress. Modi himself has risen in the BJP from his humble worker origins in Gujarat and has successfully sidelined stalwarts like Lal Krishna Advani. The naive idealism of the Independence movement and the Emergency era have given way to hard-as-nuts ambitions and strategies. Mastery of local issues, goodwill, oratory, lobbying and media savvy are now explicitly recognised as key political skills. If the "high command" of any party is not willing to recognise a worker, breakaway formations and audacious defections offer them a way out. All major Indian political parties with the exception of the communist groups no longer care enough about ideology or the mood of grassroots workers enough to discourage defectors from coming in. There may be an unwritten recognition: a so-called loyal worker is just a not-so-competent chamcha. In such a context, parties prefer a smart defector to a dubious loyalist. Or a useful defector, as we found out last week when Tom Vadakkan, a long-time Congress spokesman considered close to Sonia Gandhi, simply jumped ship to the BJP. The Kerala leader's ostensible reason (Congress disregard for the Army) and timing for the jump were so flimsy, that it looked more comic than grandiose. Vadakkan after decades sitting literally 100 metres from 10 Janpath at the Congress head office suddenly realised the party practises dynastic politics. Excuse me? Vadakkan is not a major leader but the BJP holding a news conference to announce his entry was certainly a significant indicator of where Indian politics is going. Caste, community and tribe still remain important political currencies in India. To top this, we may add an increasing localisation of politics. Local netas who care about the neighbourhood hospital, road or school and are/or more available to meet voters to address their various concerns build up goodwill that escapes the attention of the national media. But they do not escape the hawk eye of the high commands of parties. We have a virtual stock exchange for "winnable" politicians based on ground reports. The scene is not much different from the technology sector, where Amazon, Microsoft and Google may love to poach each other's employees based on their CVs and industry intelligence. Talent, work, skills and energy matter more than loyalty. If the people in question are mission critical (Read: key to winning seats or forming governments), the netas matter more. What is happening this month across political parties are just like annual appraisals and job interviews in top companies every March, prior to the start of a new financial year. Some employees get thumbs-down signals and they look for other opportunities. Smart ones feel bad when smarter ones get the chance or a new boss moves in with his/her own ideas and confidants. In a sense, such defections and group shifts have been part of Indian history and culture. Only, generals and soldiers who used to capture territories for kings have given way to netas and chamchas who capture votes for parties. In such a context, the stylish reference to "winnability" in political parties is an indirect admission of the harsh reality of grassroots politics: Parties don't really win on the basis of their ideals; they increasingly put their brand names on those they think are likely to win, while keeping their trademarks alive with tall talk and big spending. (This article was originally published on Zee News. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Pre-poll defections: Political parties prefer a smart defector than a dubious loyalist

India's national election is the biggest democratic undertaking on Earth, with hundreds of millions of voters from the Himalayas to the tropics casting their ballot in the world's second-most populous country.

Pulling off a vote of this size is no mean feat. Here are some of the bewildering numbers behind polls of this scale from the Election Commission of India:

900 million 
The number of Indians eligible to vote. At the last election in 2014 there were roughly 815 million, but just 550 million exercised their franchise.&nbsp;In India's first election in 1951 there were 173 million eligible voters.&nbsp;

85 million 
The increase in eligible voters across India in this election compared to 2014 when Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party stormed to power in a landslide.&nbsp;

15 million 
The number of eligible voters aged 18 to 19 in this election. Two-thirds of Indians are under 35.

38,325 
Voters identifying as transgender, recognised by India's Supreme Court as a distinct third gender in 2014.

1.1 million 
The number of electronic voting machines required for all the ballots to be cast in the mega-election.

1 million 
Polling stations to be erected for the election.

8,251 
The number of candidates across India who contested the elections in 2014.

3,626 
The number of political parties -- though only 1,841 are recognised by the Election Commission.

545 
Seats in the lower house of India's parliament, the Lok Sabha. Only 543 are up for grabs in this election -- two are reserved for members of the country's tiny Anglo-Indian community.

186 
The number of lawmakers elected to parliament in 2014 with criminal records.

42 million 
The amount of dollars seized by election officials from politicians and their supporters for misuse -- including vote buying -- during the last poll. Candidates are only allowed to spend $100,000.

6 million 
Litres of alcohol confiscated by authorities during the 2014 campaign. Booze is often used to buy votes from poorer communities.

17,000 
Kilograms of illegal drugs seized during the same period in 2014.

India's national election is the biggest democratic undertaking on Earth, with hundreds of millions of voters from the Himalayas to the tropics casting their ballot in the world's second-most populous country.

India's national election is the biggest democratic undertaking on Earth, with hundreds of millions of voters from the Himalayas to the tropics casting their ballot in the world's second-most populous country. Pulling off a vote of this size is no mean feat. Here are some of the bewildering numbers behind polls of this scale from the Election Commission of India: 900 million The number of Indians eligible to vote. At the last election in 2014 there were roughly 815 million, but just 550 million exercised their franchise. In India's first election in 1951 there were 173 million eligible voters. 85 million The increase in eligible voters across India in this election compared to 2014 when Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party stormed to power in a landslide. 15 million The number of eligible voters aged 18 to 19 in this election. Two-thirds of Indians are under 35. 38,325 Voters identifying as transgender, recognised by India's Supreme Court as a distinct third gender in 2014. 1.1 million The number of electronic voting machines required for all the ballots to be cast in the mega-election. 1 million Polling stations to be erected for the election. 8,251 The number of candidates across India who contested the elections in 2014. 3,626 The number of political parties -- though only 1,841 are recognised by the Election Commission. 545 Seats in the lower house of India's parliament, the Lok Sabha. Only 543 are up for grabs in this election -- two are reserved for members of the country's tiny Anglo-Indian community. 186 The number of lawmakers elected to parliament in 2014 with criminal records. 42 million The amount of dollars seized by election officials from politicians and their supporters for misuse -- including vote buying -- during the last poll. Candidates are only allowed to spend $100,000. 6 million Litres of alcohol confiscated by authorities during the 2014 campaign. Booze is often used to buy votes from poorer communities. 17,000 Kilograms of illegal drugs seized during the same period in 2014.

The biggest election on Earth: India's giant poll in numbers

With the release of the<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/2019-lok-sabha-elections-to-be-held-in-seven-phases-starting-april-11-202362"> election dates for the 2019 Lok Sabha</a> on Sunday, Prime Minister Modi extended best wishes to all political parties and candidates for the upcoming polls.

In a tweet, <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/enough-is-enough-india-cannot-suffer-terrorism-till-eternity-pm-modi-202353">PM Modi</a> said, "Wishing all political parties and candidates the very best for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. We may belong to different parties but our aim must be the same- the development of India and empowerment of every Indian!".

He also urged the citizens of the country to come out in large numbers and mark their active participation in the polls.

"The festival of democracy, Elections are here. I urge my fellow Indians to enrich the 2019 Lok Sabha elections with their active participation. I hope this election witnesses a historic turnout. I particularly call upon first time voters to vote in record numbers".

He further praised the Election Commission of the country and extended wishes to the officials and the security personnel who will be on the field.

"Best wishes to the Election Commission, all those officials and security personnel who will be on the field, across the length and breadth of India assuring smooth elections. India is very proud of the EC for assiduously organising elections for several years".

PM Modi also sought blessings for his government and asked the countrymen to contribute to "#PhirEkBaarModiSarkar".

He said, "Guided by ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas’, NDA seeks your blessings again. We spent the last five years fulfilling basic necessities that were left unfulfilled for 70 long years. Now, time has come to build on that and create a strong, prosperous &amp; secure India. #PhirEkBaarModiSarkar".

Hitting out at the Congress he said, "In 2014, the people comprehensively rejected the UPA. There was unprecedented anger over the UPA’s corruption, nepotism and policy paralysis. India’s self-confidence was at an all-time low and the people of India wanted to rid the nation of such decay and pessimism".

"The last five years have shown that with the blessings and participation of 130 crore Indians, what was earlier deemed impossible has now become possible," he added.&nbsp;

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
<div class="twitter-block" draggable="false">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
Today, the people of India know that it is possible to: 
 
Become the fastest growing economy. 
 
Give a befitting reply to terror. 
 
Eliminate poverty at a record pace. 
 
Make India Swachh. 
 
Remove corruption and punish the corrupt. 
 
Ensure inclusive and extensive development.
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) <a href="https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1104723568661651461?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 10, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
<a class="close-mark close-div" href="#" id="jqclosemark">×</a></div>

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
<div class="twitter-block" draggable="false">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
India is proud that: 
 
2.5 crore families have electricity for the first time. 
 
7 crore households have smoke-free kitchens. 
 
1.5 crore Indians got their own homes. 
 
These, and many other instances show that with the right approach and futuristic policies, nothing is impossible!
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) <a href="https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1104723912867241984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 10, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
<a class="close-mark close-div" href="#" id="jqclosemark">×</a></div>

The 2019 Lok Sabha elections are to be held in seven phases starting April from April 11.&nbsp;

The polling dates over the seven phases are April 11, April 18, April 23, May 6, May 12, and May 19. All votes will be counted on May 23.&nbsp;

The announcement was made Sunday by Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora.&nbsp;

With the release of the election dates for the 2019 Lok Sabha on Sunday, Prime Minister Modi extended best wishes to all political parties and candidates for the upcoming polls.

With the release of the election dates for the 2019 Lok Sabha on Sunday, Prime Minister Modi extended best wishes to all political parties and candidates for the upcoming polls. In a tweet, PM Modi said, "Wishing all political parties and candidates the very best for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. We may belong to different parties but our aim must be the same- the development of India and empowerment of every Indian!". He also urged the citizens of the country to come out in large numbers and mark their active participation in the polls. "The festival of democracy, Elections are here. I urge my fellow Indians to enrich the 2019 Lok Sabha elections with their active participation. I hope this election witnesses a historic turnout. I particularly call upon first time voters to vote in record numbers". He further praised the Election Commission of the country and extended wishes to the officials and the security personnel who will be on the field. "Best wishes to the Election Commission, all those officials and security personnel who will be on the field, across the length and breadth of India assuring smooth elections. India is very proud of the EC for assiduously organising elections for several years". PM Modi also sought blessings for his government and asked the countrymen to contribute to "#PhirEkBaarModiSarkar". He said, "Guided by ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas’, NDA seeks your blessings again. We spent the last five years fulfilling basic necessities that were left unfulfilled for 70 long years. Now, time has come to build on that and create a strong, prosperous & secure India. #PhirEkBaarModiSarkar". Hitting out at the Congress he said, "In 2014, the people comprehensively rejected the UPA. There was unprecedented anger over the UPA’s corruption, nepotism and policy paralysis. India’s self-confidence was at an all-time low and the people of India wanted to rid the nation of such decay and pessimism". "The last five years have shown that with the blessings and participation of 130 crore Indians, what was earlier deemed impossible has now become possible," he added. Today, the people of India know that it is possible to: Become the fastest growing economy. Give a befitting reply to terror. Eliminate poverty at a record pace. Make India Swachh. Remove corruption and punish the corrupt. Ensure inclusive and extensive development. — Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) March 10, 2019 × India is proud that: 2.5 crore families have electricity for the first time. 7 crore households have smoke-free kitchens. 1.5 crore Indians got their own homes. These, and many other instances show that with the right approach and futuristic policies, nothing is impossible! — Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) March 10, 2019 × The 2019 Lok Sabha elections are to be held in seven phases starting April from April 11. The polling dates over the seven phases are April 11, April 18, April 23, May 6, May 12, and May 19. All votes will be counted on May 23. The announcement was made Sunday by Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora.

Urge fellow Indians to enrich 2019 Lok Sabha elections with active participation: PM Modi

A three-member team of Election Commission of India (ECI) lead by Deputy Election Commissioner Sandeep Sharma landed in Srinagar on a two-day visit to access the situation for the conduct of Lok Sabha and local assembly elections.

Members from several mainstream political parties both national and regional met the team in Srinagar just some metres away from the famous Dal lake. The political delegations have given their inputs to the team on the upcoming elections in Jammu and Kashmir.

All the parties after meeting the team said that they had asked ECI to hold Lok Sabha and state assembly elections simultaneously, given the security situation.

The first delegation to meet the ECI was Congress, which was led by its senior leader and former minister Taj Mohiuddin. Taj told the media that their party wants simultaneous elections. “Security situation has been same, be it 1996, 2008 or 2014, elections were held,” he said.

His comment has come amid speculations that the local assembly elections may not be held with Lok Sabha elections. The state is currently under President's rule after the fall of PDP-BJP collation government.&nbsp;

Interestingly, PDP also chose to favour elections in the state. Earlier their party chief and former chief minister, Mehbooba Mufti had told media that she wasn’t for elections given the circumstances.

“The Governor rule is temporary. Free and fair elections should be held in the state as people want a civilian government so that their issues are resolved. There is no alternative to an elected government. We have given our point of view to the ECI that elections should be held,” Senior PDP leader Abdur Rehman Veeri told outside the venue of the meeting.

While the oldest regional party, National conference also echoed the same tune. Party General Secretary Ali Mohammad Sagar said that the credibility of Election Commission of India was at stake and voice of people should be heard.

The team also met top officials of the J&amp;K police, district authorities and other top security officials to get a perspective on the prevailing situation.

The team will leave for Jammu and meet the stakeholders there and take their feedback. The ECI is expected to brief the media on Tuesday.&nbsp;

A three-member team of Election Commission of India (ECI) lead by Deputy Election Commissioner Sandeep Sharma landed in Srinagar on a two-day visit to access the situation for the conduct of Lok Sabha and local assembly elections.

A three-member team of Election Commission of India (ECI) lead by Deputy Election Commissioner Sandeep Sharma landed in Srinagar on a two-day visit to access the situation for the conduct of Lok Sabha and local assembly elections. Members from several mainstream political parties both national and regional met the team in Srinagar just some metres away from the famous Dal lake. The political delegations have given their inputs to the team on the upcoming elections in Jammu and Kashmir. All the parties after meeting the team said that they had asked ECI to hold Lok Sabha and state assembly elections simultaneously, given the security situation. The first delegation to meet the ECI was Congress, which was led by its senior leader and former minister Taj Mohiuddin. Taj told the media that their party wants simultaneous elections. “Security situation has been same, be it 1996, 2008 or 2014, elections were held,” he said. His comment has come amid speculations that the local assembly elections may not be held with Lok Sabha elections. The state is currently under President's rule after the fall of PDP-BJP collation government. Interestingly, PDP also chose to favour elections in the state. Earlier their party chief and former chief minister, Mehbooba Mufti had told media that she wasn’t for elections given the circumstances. “The Governor rule is temporary. Free and fair elections should be held in the state as people want a civilian government so that their issues are resolved. There is no alternative to an elected government. We have given our point of view to the ECI that elections should be held,” Senior PDP leader Abdur Rehman Veeri told outside the venue of the meeting. While the oldest regional party, National conference also echoed the same tune. Party General Secretary Ali Mohammad Sagar said that the credibility of Election Commission of India was at stake and voice of people should be heard. The team also met top officials of the J&K police, district authorities and other top security officials to get a perspective on the prevailing situation. The team will leave for Jammu and meet the stakeholders there and take their feedback. The ECI is expected to brief the media on Tuesday.

Mainstream parties in Jammu and Kashmir ask Election Commission to hold simultaneous elections

The Bharatiya Janata Party is finally getting its act together on the alliance front. Over the last few days, it managed to salvage its partnership with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra; stitched a deal with the AIADMK and one other smaller outfit in Tamil Nadu; and seemingly placated the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) in Uttar Pradesh, which had threatened to quit the NDA. Senior BJP leaders have also reached out to another disgruntled NDA constituent, Apna Dal (Sonelal), in Uttar Pradesh.&nbsp;

Besides, the party has set its sight on a few post-poll partnerships since it felt, for good reasons, that a pre-election understanding would be counter-productive. A later understanding with the YSR Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh is one such possibility. 
 
A pre-poll tie-up between the BJP and the YSR Congress Party does not make sense because the latter’s leader Jagan Mohan Reddy is seeking to exploit the issue of his state not been given a special status in the upcoming elections, and here he wants to put the BJP-led NDA regime in the dock. At the same time, he is more opposed to Chandrababu Naidu and the TDP, who are his main rivals in Andhra Pradesh. Now that Naidu has quit the NDA, the coast is clear for Jagan Mohan Reddy to strike a bargain with the BJP post-results. &nbsp;

In Telangana, the TRS is dependent on Muslim votes, which is why he has consistently humoured Asaduddin Owaisi, who has pockets of influence in the old Hyderabad city. Given that Owaisi is a bitter critic of the BJP and the TRS needs him more in the pre-poll stage than it needs the BJP, any understanding between the TRS and the BJP will have to wait until after the results are announced.

As for the BJD, the ruling party in Odisha is facing a severe challenge from the BJP this time around, and many poll pundits are seeing a surge in the number of BJP seats from the state following the Lok Sabha polls.&nbsp;

Since both the BJP and the BJD have now locked horns, any pact can happen only after the election dust has settled down. It must be remembered that in the five years gone by, both the BJD and the YSR Congress party, especially the BJD, had backed many of the Modi government’s initiatives. More importantly, it has maintained a distance from the various ‘third front’ confabulations across the country.&nbsp;

That said, the deal between the Shiv Sena and the BJP is the most important development of all. Maharashtra is an important state, contributing 48 seats to the Lok Sabha. Most poll analysts had pointed out that, if the two parties contested separately — and against each other as a consequence — both would be major losers, and the gainer would be the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance. It was perhaps this realisation than a sudden spurt of love for each other that compelled the warring allies to bury the hatchet.

This also explains the give and take both the parties agreed to, with the Sena settling for a couple of seats lesser than the BJP for the Lok Sabha and the BJP accepting a 50:50 sharing basis for the state Assembly polls that are to follow in a few months of the general elections. The Sena-BJP pact has seriously undermined the prospects of the Congress-NCP coalition. It would be wrong to say that all creases have been ironed out, but a tentative partnership is still better than no partnership. &nbsp;

In Uttar Pradesh, both the Apna Dal (Sonelal) and the SBSP are small players but they have a committed vote base. The latter had won no Lok Sabha seat in 2014 but did better in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls after it allied with the BJP, winning four constituencies. Its leader OP Rajbhar has had problems with the Yogi Adityanath government in the state, but things appear to have settled down somewhat after his marathon meeting with BJP president Amit Shah.&nbsp;

Yet, the final word is yet to be said, since the seat-sharing matter remains to be tackled. Apna Dal (Sonelal) too has grievances similar to that of the SBSP — that big brother BJP has not given it the respect it deserves. Its leader Anupriya Patel is a Minister in Modi’s government but there is a feeling that the party has been neglected but the BJP, more especially after the latter rode to an unprecedented victory in the last State polls. Given the tough challenge it faces in Uttar Pradesh from the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party combine, the BJP would not want its allies in the state to walk away. &nbsp;&nbsp;

Will the outreach and the alliances, new and old, work for the BJP? In Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, they should have an impact. One is not sure about Tamil Nadu, though, where the AIADMK has become unpopular, and weak after a split in the party. Its unpopularity could drag down the BJP (which, not having a big mass base there, has to depend on the regional ally), as well as the other regional partner, the PMK.

Nevertheless, with every seat counting in what is billed as a furiously contested 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP can at least take heart from the alliances it has managed to secure. 
 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

The Bharatiya Janata Party is finally getting its act together on the alliance front. Over the last few days, it managed to salvage its partnership with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra; stitched a deal with the AIADMK and one other smaller outfit in Tamil Nadu; and seemingly placated the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) in Uttar Pradesh, which had threatened to quit the NDA.

The Bharatiya Janata Party is finally getting its act together on the alliance front. Over the last few days, it managed to salvage its partnership with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra; stitched a deal with the AIADMK and one other smaller outfit in Tamil Nadu; and seemingly placated the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) in Uttar Pradesh, which had threatened to quit the NDA. Senior BJP leaders have also reached out to another disgruntled NDA constituent, Apna Dal (Sonelal), in Uttar Pradesh. Besides, the party has set its sight on a few post-poll partnerships since it felt, for good reasons, that a pre-election understanding would be counter-productive. A later understanding with the YSR Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh is one such possibility. A pre-poll tie-up between the BJP and the YSR Congress Party does not make sense because the latter’s leader Jagan Mohan Reddy is seeking to exploit the issue of his state not been given a special status in the upcoming elections, and here he wants to put the BJP-led NDA regime in the dock. At the same time, he is more opposed to Chandrababu Naidu and the TDP, who are his main rivals in Andhra Pradesh. Now that Naidu has quit the NDA, the coast is clear for Jagan Mohan Reddy to strike a bargain with the BJP post-results. In Telangana, the TRS is dependent on Muslim votes, which is why he has consistently humoured Asaduddin Owaisi, who has pockets of influence in the old Hyderabad city. Given that Owaisi is a bitter critic of the BJP and the TRS needs him more in the pre-poll stage than it needs the BJP, any understanding between the TRS and the BJP will have to wait until after the results are announced. As for the BJD, the ruling party in Odisha is facing a severe challenge from the BJP this time around, and many poll pundits are seeing a surge in the number of BJP seats from the state following the Lok Sabha polls. Since both the BJP and the BJD have now locked horns, any pact can happen only after the election dust has settled down. It must be remembered that in the five years gone by, both the BJD and the YSR Congress party, especially the BJD, had backed many of the Modi government’s initiatives. More importantly, it has maintained a distance from the various ‘third front’ confabulations across the country. That said, the deal between the Shiv Sena and the BJP is the most important development of all. Maharashtra is an important state, contributing 48 seats to the Lok Sabha. Most poll analysts had pointed out that, if the two parties contested separately — and against each other as a consequence — both would be major losers, and the gainer would be the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance. It was perhaps this realisation than a sudden spurt of love for each other that compelled the warring allies to bury the hatchet. This also explains the give and take both the parties agreed to, with the Sena settling for a couple of seats lesser than the BJP for the Lok Sabha and the BJP accepting a 50:50 sharing basis for the state Assembly polls that are to follow in a few months of the general elections. The Sena-BJP pact has seriously undermined the prospects of the Congress-NCP coalition. It would be wrong to say that all creases have been ironed out, but a tentative partnership is still better than no partnership. In Uttar Pradesh, both the Apna Dal (Sonelal) and the SBSP are small players but they have a committed vote base. The latter had won no Lok Sabha seat in 2014 but did better in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls after it allied with the BJP, winning four constituencies. Its leader OP Rajbhar has had problems with the Yogi Adityanath government in the state, but things appear to have settled down somewhat after his marathon meeting with BJP president Amit Shah. Yet, the final word is yet to be said, since the seat-sharing matter remains to be tackled. Apna Dal (Sonelal) too has grievances similar to that of the SBSP — that big brother BJP has not given it the respect it deserves. Its leader Anupriya Patel is a Minister in Modi’s government but there is a feeling that the party has been neglected but the BJP, more especially after the latter rode to an unprecedented victory in the last State polls. Given the tough challenge it faces in Uttar Pradesh from the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party combine, the BJP would not want its allies in the state to walk away. Will the outreach and the alliances, new and old, work for the BJP? In Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, they should have an impact. One is not sure about Tamil Nadu, though, where the AIADMK has become unpopular, and weak after a split in the party. Its unpopularity could drag down the BJP (which, not having a big mass base there, has to depend on the regional ally), as well as the other regional partner, the PMK. Nevertheless, with every seat counting in what is billed as a furiously contested 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP can at least take heart from the alliances it has managed to secure. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Alliance arithmetic: BJP to beat opposition at its own game?

As the 2019 general election is approaching, the issue of women is likely to assume significance.&nbsp;

It has been observed that during the last few years, the participation of women in electoral voting has increased considerably. In 16 out of 29 states of India, more women voted than men in 2014 elections. &nbsp;

Women turnout during India's 2014 parliamentary general elections was 65.63 per cent, compared to 67.09 per cent turnout for men. Though the rise in female voter registration has been modest, turnout among female electors has surged. This trend has made every political party sensitive to the demands of women.

It is ironical that Indian politics has been represented by strong women personality over the last 60 years such as Indira Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Jayalalitha, Mayawati, Mamata &nbsp;Banerjee, Sushma Swaraj, Sheila Dikshit, Rabri Devi, Agatha Sangma etc. However, this has not translated into significant development of women in society.&nbsp;

Contrary to the democratic expectations, violence against women has increased in Indian society. Cases of crime against women have increased by over 40 per cent from 2012 to 2016, according to the National Crime Records Bureau. A woman was raped every 13 minutes, a bride was murdered for dowry every 69 minutes, and six women were gang-raped every day in India in 2016.

Participation of women in opportunity structure is significantly low, particularly in the political structure. Indian women have the lowest representation in Parliament, they make up a mere 11.6 per cent of the 542-member Lok Sabha and 11 per cent of the 245-member Rajya Sabha. In 2014, just 8.1 per cent of candidates for the Lok Sabha were women.&nbsp;

Among its South Asian neighbours, India ranks fifth in women’s political representation in Parliament falling behind Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal. It's sad that India which aspires to become a regional and global power has poor records of women underrepresentation in state and national decision-making bodies.

At the same time, the current government is credited to make women for the first time as defence minister of the country. PM Modi's Council of Ministers consists of 9 female ministers, of whom 6 hold the rank of Cabinet minister, the highest number of female Cabinet ministers in any Indian government in history.

Also, the government is known for its numerous women-centred policies like Beti Bachao Beti Padhao, Ujjawala scheme etc. It's yet to be seen whether women electorate will continue to support PM Modi now as he remains a popular figure among Indian women.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

&nbsp;

As the 2019 general election is approaching, the issue of women is likely to assume significance. It has been observed that during the last few years, the participation of women in electoral voting has increased considerably.

As the 2019 general election is approaching, the issue of women is likely to assume significance. It has been observed that during the last few years, the participation of women in electoral voting has increased considerably. In 16 out of 29 states of India, more women voted than men in 2014 elections. Women turnout during India's 2014 parliamentary general elections was 65.63 per cent, compared to 67.09 per cent turnout for men. Though the rise in female voter registration has been modest, turnout among female electors has surged. This trend has made every political party sensitive to the demands of women. It is ironical that Indian politics has been represented by strong women personality over the last 60 years such as Indira Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Jayalalitha, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Sushma Swaraj, Sheila Dikshit, Rabri Devi, Agatha Sangma etc. However, this has not translated into significant development of women in society. Contrary to the democratic expectations, violence against women has increased in Indian society. Cases of crime against women have increased by over 40 per cent from 2012 to 2016, according to the National Crime Records Bureau. A woman was raped every 13 minutes, a bride was murdered for dowry every 69 minutes, and six women were gang-raped every day in India in 2016. Participation of women in opportunity structure is significantly low, particularly in the political structure. Indian women have the lowest representation in Parliament, they make up a mere 11.6 per cent of the 542-member Lok Sabha and 11 per cent of the 245-member Rajya Sabha. In 2014, just 8.1 per cent of candidates for the Lok Sabha were women. Among its South Asian neighbours, India ranks fifth in women’s political representation in Parliament falling behind Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal. It's sad that India which aspires to become a regional and global power has poor records of women underrepresentation in state and national decision-making bodies. At the same time, the current government is credited to make women for the first time as defence minister of the country. PM Modi's Council of Ministers consists of 9 female ministers, of whom 6 hold the rank of Cabinet minister, the highest number of female Cabinet ministers in any Indian government in history. Also, the government is known for its numerous women-centred policies like Beti Bachao Beti Padhao, Ujjawala scheme etc. It's yet to be seen whether women electorate will continue to support PM Modi now as he remains a popular figure among Indian women. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Women electorate to play an important role in Lok Sabha elections 2019

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/bjp-has-made-indias-unipolar-politics-bipolar-says-union-minister-rajnath-singh-196285">Union Minister Rajnath Singh </a>on Monday denounced Congress president Rahul Gandhi's persistent 'chowkidar chor hai'&nbsp;jibe against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and coined a rhyming slogan in his defence.

While addressing a rally in Uttar Pradesh's Moradabad, Singh said that the Prime Minister is not a "chor" (thief) but "pure and that he is the only "cure" for country.

Addressing a gathering here, he said, “Main kehna chahta hoon chowkidaar chor nahi hai, balki hamara chowkidaar pure hai. Agli baar usko PM banna sure hai, aur yahi Bharat ki samasyaon ka cure hai.” (I want to say that our ‘chowkidaar’ is not a thief but is an honest man. He will be the PM for the next time for sure and that is the cure for all problems in India.)

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/centre-committed-to-complete-nrc-within-stipulated-time-rajnath-singh-195425">Singh</a>’s remark comes after Gandhi on Monday continued his "chowkidar chor hai" barb, in a veiled reference to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, saying that his party would not sit idle until a government based on Congress ideology is formed in Uttar Pradesh.

Attacking the Prime Minister, Rahul said, "The country's 'chowkidar'&nbsp;looted the people of Uttar Pradesh, the Air Force and others in the country. Chowkidar chor hai!"&nbsp;

Union Minister Rajnath Singh on Monday denounced Congress president Rahul Gandhi's persistent 'chowkidar chor hai' jibe against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and coined a rhyming slogan in his defence.

Union Minister Rajnath Singh on Monday denounced Congress president Rahul Gandhi's persistent 'chowkidar chor hai' jibe against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and coined a rhyming slogan in his defence. While addressing a rally in Uttar Pradesh's Moradabad, Singh said that the Prime Minister is not a "chor" (thief) but "pure and that he is the only "cure" for country. Addressing a gathering here, he said, “Main kehna chahta hoon chowkidaar chor nahi hai, balki hamara chowkidaar pure hai. Agli baar usko PM banna sure hai, aur yahi Bharat ki samasyaon ka cure hai.” (I want to say that our ‘chowkidaar’ is not a thief but is an honest man. He will be the PM for the next time for sure and that is the cure for all problems in India.) Singh’s remark comes after Gandhi on Monday continued his "chowkidar chor hai" barb, in a veiled reference to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, saying that his party would not sit idle until a government based on Congress ideology is formed in Uttar Pradesh. Attacking the Prime Minister, Rahul said, "The country's 'chowkidar' looted the people of Uttar Pradesh, the Air Force and others in the country. Chowkidar chor hai!"

Chowkidar is pure, will become PM for sure: Rajnath Singh

Pitching for "purity" in poll funding, BJP president Amit Shah on Monday said the party must run with contributions from its workers and not on donations of "money bags, builders, contractors and those with black money".

Addressing a party event to mark the 51st death anniversary of its ideological guide Deen Dayal Upadhyay, Shah said the BJP should take up the responsibility of guiding other parties on the path of probity. Two workers from each booth in the country should contribute Rs 1,000 through the NaMo app, he said.

"BJP workers should say with pride that we run this party from our money and no industrialist, contractor, money bag or builder can run it," Shah said.

He, however, added that as party president he cannot say the BJP can fund all its organisational and election expenses from its workers' contributions. "This is not possible today," he said.

"If means are not pure, then our goals cannot be attained in a good way. If the party has to be kept pure... If the party starts running from the money of money bags, builders, contractors, those with black money, then it will malign our means to realise our goals," he said.

There should be a public discussion on how election expenses can be brought down and how to bring probity in poll funding, he said, expressing confidence that such an exercise will begin under the BJP's leadership.

The Modi government, he asserted, has taken steps to clamp down on the influence of black money in politics by limiting cash donations to Rs 2,000.

Laws against corruption have been made so stringent that those breaking it will be caught and that those who were involved in scams are sweating even in this Delhi winter, he said.

Fugitive businessmen Vijay Mallya and Nirav Modi had escaped the country because the Modi government started putting accused like them behind bars, he claimed.

Pitching for "purity" in poll funding, BJP president Amit Shah on Monday said the party must run with contributions from its workers and not on donations of "money bags, builders, contractors and those with black money".

Pitching for "purity" in poll funding, BJP president Amit Shah on Monday said the party must run with contributions from its workers and not on donations of "money bags, builders, contractors and those with black money". Addressing a party event to mark the 51st death anniversary of its ideological guide Deen Dayal Upadhyay, Shah said the BJP should take up the responsibility of guiding other parties on the path of probity. Two workers from each booth in the country should contribute Rs 1,000 through the NaMo app, he said. "BJP workers should say with pride that we run this party from our money and no industrialist, contractor, money bag or builder can run it," Shah said. He, however, added that as party president he cannot say the BJP can fund all its organisational and election expenses from its workers' contributions. "This is not possible today," he said. "If means are not pure, then our goals cannot be attained in a good way. If the party has to be kept pure... If the party starts running from the money of money bags, builders, contractors, those with black money, then it will malign our means to realise our goals," he said. There should be a public discussion on how election expenses can be brought down and how to bring probity in poll funding, he said, expressing confidence that such an exercise will begin under the BJP's leadership. The Modi government, he asserted, has taken steps to clamp down on the influence of black money in politics by limiting cash donations to Rs 2,000. Laws against corruption have been made so stringent that those breaking it will be caught and that those who were involved in scams are sweating even in this Delhi winter, he said. Fugitive businessmen Vijay Mallya and Nirav Modi had escaped the country because the Modi government started putting accused like them behind bars, he claimed.

BJP should run from workers' contributions, not donations from money bags: Amit Shah

The Hugo Chavez model of politics pivoting around the concept of neopatrimonialism was followed with determined zeal by the previous Manmohan Singh-led UPA government at the Centre, presided over by the then Congress party president Sonia Gandhi.

The drawback of the model that was carved and implemented to the hilt by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez between 2002 and 2013, a period that almost coincided with the Manmohan Singh's rule in India, was more tuned to addressing social inequalities rather than structural inequalities.

The present job crisis in India can be attributed and described as a direct fallout of the politics of populism practiced by the Congress party when it was in power between 2004 and 2014 since equity distribution was lopsided and the growth on economic infrastructure front also was compromised with maximum focus on direct cash transfer to the deprived sections through acts passed by the Indian Parliament to guarantee jobs, food, and education. While doing this, they typically aped the cash transfer policy that was being followed in Brazil and Mexico without bothering about the impact it would leave on the middle class wage earners and the economic growth of the country.

Following on the same footsteps, present Congress president Rahul Gandhi announced at a "Kisan Abhaar Sammelan" at Raipur this Monday that his party would implement a minimum income guarantee scheme for every poor if his party comes to power at the Centre this year.

Former finance minister P Chidambaram has laced the Congress decision regarding "minimum income guarantee" with the assertion that it would "wipe out poverty" and uplift about one-fifth of India's population that lacks the purchasing power to provide itself food, clothing and shelter.

Chidambaram has defended the decision by pointing out that India owes itself the responsibility of mobilising resources to rescue the deprived sections caught in the trap of poverty. For this purpose only 1.5 per cent of the GDP would be required and there should be no difficulty in meeting the target, he adds.

Before the nation goes to polls, the Congress party, through the sop of "minimum income guarantee", has tried to address that section of the Indian population which is suffering the most due to joblessness and poverty. According to basic estimates their number is huge - about 200 million. Obviously, the Congress party would like to use them as a vote bank in the coming parliamentary election.

Scarcity of jobs is a burning problem that is haunting the NDA government led by Narendra Modi at the Centre in a big way as its five year term is nearing completion.

Joblessness in India is an issue that has caught the attention of analysts in neighbouring China. Global Times, published under China's official People's Daily, also points to growing discontent, being faced by Prime Minister Modi. Hu Weijia, a reporter with the Global Times says: "If New Delhi restricts Chinese investment, the move will unavoidably cut job opportunities for young people (In India)."

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) also has expressed concerns about financing and the lending environment in India "due to the collapse of Indian infrastructure development and high rate of non-performing assets among Indian banks" in its inaugural Asian Infrastructure Finance report released in Beijing on Tuesday.

The AIIB report talks of the downward trajectory when it comes to India's infrastructure transaction activity in terms of total completed and ongoing transactions each year from 2014 to 2016.

Economists and analysts of the long-term South Asian scenario, especially in the backdrop of the China-US trade disputes that have got aggravated by the US President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, have started talking of the advantages of Chinese companies investing in India's labour intensive industries. The Global Times has underscored that the Modi administration needs good news in terms of job growth ahead of the upcoming general election.

The projection by commentators exploring the prospects of mutual gain by both India and China under the current global scenario notwithstanding, what cannot be ignored is that the clock is ticking for Modi. Come elections and the top bulb of the sandglass will soon be empty.

Instead of populism, it is important at this juncture to address the issue of highly unequal levels of development, human development index and lopsided distribution of equity. Seeking investments and channelising resources for the purpose of building the economic infrastructure, so essential for improving the quality of life of the people across the board, should be the priority. Ahead of elections, the Modi government will have to take the Congress head on. Without wasting time, it will have to place on the table a policy design for evolving and creating a vibrant job market in India.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The Hugo Chavez model of politics pivoting around the concept of neopatrimonialism was followed with determined zeal by the previous Manmohan Singh-led UPA government at the Centre, presided over by the then Congress party president Sonia Gandhi.

The Hugo Chavez model of politics pivoting around the concept of neopatrimonialism was followed with determined zeal by the previous Manmohan Singh-led UPA government at the Centre, presided over by the then Congress party president Sonia Gandhi. The drawback of the model that was carved and implemented to the hilt by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez between 2002 and 2013, a period that almost coincided with the Manmohan Singh's rule in India, was more tuned to addressing social inequalities rather than structural inequalities. The present job crisis in India can be attributed and described as a direct fallout of the politics of populism practiced by the Congress party when it was in power between 2004 and 2014 since equity distribution was lopsided and the growth on economic infrastructure front also was compromised with maximum focus on direct cash transfer to the deprived sections through acts passed by the Indian Parliament to guarantee jobs, food, and education. While doing this, they typically aped the cash transfer policy that was being followed in Brazil and Mexico without bothering about the impact it would leave on the middle class wage earners and the economic growth of the country. Following on the same footsteps, present Congress president Rahul Gandhi announced at a "Kisan Abhaar Sammelan" at Raipur this Monday that his party would implement a minimum income guarantee scheme for every poor if his party comes to power at the Centre this year. Former finance minister P Chidambaram has laced the Congress decision regarding "minimum income guarantee" with the assertion that it would "wipe out poverty" and uplift about one-fifth of India's population that lacks the purchasing power to provide itself food, clothing and shelter. Chidambaram has defended the decision by pointing out that India owes itself the responsibility of mobilising resources to rescue the deprived sections caught in the trap of poverty. For this purpose only 1.5 per cent of the GDP would be required and there should be no difficulty in meeting the target, he adds. Before the nation goes to polls, the Congress party, through the sop of "minimum income guarantee", has tried to address that section of the Indian population which is suffering the most due to joblessness and poverty. According to basic estimates their number is huge - about 200 million. Obviously, the Congress party would like to use them as a vote bank in the coming parliamentary election. Scarcity of jobs is a burning problem that is haunting the NDA government led by Narendra Modi at the Centre in a big way as its five year term is nearing completion. Joblessness in India is an issue that has caught the attention of analysts in neighbouring China. Global Times, published under China's official People's Daily, also points to growing discontent, being faced by Prime Minister Modi. Hu Weijia, a reporter with the Global Times says: "If New Delhi restricts Chinese investment, the move will unavoidably cut job opportunities for young people (In India)." Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) also has expressed concerns about financing and the lending environment in India "due to the collapse of Indian infrastructure development and high rate of non-performing assets among Indian banks" in its inaugural Asian Infrastructure Finance report released in Beijing on Tuesday. The AIIB report talks of the downward trajectory when it comes to India's infrastructure transaction activity in terms of total completed and ongoing transactions each year from 2014 to 2016. Economists and analysts of the long-term South Asian scenario, especially in the backdrop of the China-US trade disputes that have got aggravated by the US President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, have started talking of the advantages of Chinese companies investing in India's labour intensive industries. The Global Times has underscored that the Modi administration needs good news in terms of job growth ahead of the upcoming general election. The projection by commentators exploring the prospects of mutual gain by both India and China under the current global scenario notwithstanding, what cannot be ignored is that the clock is ticking for Modi. Come elections and the top bulb of the sandglass will soon be empty. Instead of populism, it is important at this juncture to address the issue of highly unequal levels of development, human development index and lopsided distribution of equity. Seeking investments and channelising resources for the purpose of building the economic infrastructure, so essential for improving the quality of life of the people across the board, should be the priority. Ahead of elections, the Modi government will have to take the Congress head on. Without wasting time, it will have to place on the table a policy design for evolving and creating a vibrant job market in India. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Minimum income guarantee: Populism versus long-term policy for a vibrant job market

There are moments of epiphany when a bright flash of light appears in the mind's eye to give us an enlightening idea of some hard truth or knowledge. I had such a moment on the eve of the new year when I read about a political party from Uttar Pradesh called Nishad Party. It is in the news after its members pelted stones and killed a policeman on duty at Ghazipur in the eastern part of the state a couple of hours after Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a rally in the area.&nbsp;

The Nishad community has been demanding reservations in government jobs. Is there anything new there? The Gujjars in Rajasthan, the Marathas in Maharashtra, the Patidars (Patels) in Gujarat, the Kapus in Andhra Pradesh and the Jats in Haryana are among those demanding job quotas in what I call post-Mandal politics. After a broad alliance of backward castes (technically known as Other Backward Classes in administrative language) managed to get quotas through the implementation of the Mandal Commission report in 1990, dissensions and rivalries within this category and those left out of the game but feeling backward in political terms, have been exercising their electoral muscle across India.

I confess I had not heard of the Nishad Party enough to have applied my mind, although it contested as many as 100 assembly seats in the last UP elections. Officially, the Nishad party describes itself as the derivative of an acronym: Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal. In effect, it represents boatmen and fishermen groups such as the Nishad, Bind and Kewat communities. There are also other parties in UP such as the Apna Dal (S) representing the Kurmis -- who are not high enough in the state but have a chief minister in Nitish Kumar in neighbouring Bihar.&nbsp;

In Andhra Pradesh, actor Pawan Kalyan is leading the Jana Sena party. He does not associate himself with any caste, but he is identified with the Kapus on account of his birth. The Jana Sena is giving headaches to chief minister Chandrababu Naidu, which kind of explains why the CM is trying to assume a national role as a key mover-shaker in opposition efforts to dislodge Modi's BJP from power. Voters look kindly at regional leaders assuming national prominence, partly in pride and partly in the hope that a national win will result in more local gains.

For all practical purposes, the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti in Gujarat led by Hardik Patel is as good as a regional caste-based party, though it calls itself non-political. It played a major role in Congress improving its show in the last state assembly elections.

A study in the respected Economic and Political Weekly on recent caste-based quota stirs concluded that the Jats, the Marathas and the Patels were "already closer to the upper castes than to the more disadvantaged groups in their respective states. Their anxieties seem to be based more on perception than on empirical evidence. "

We can't probably say that about the backward Nishads in UP, but relatively speaking the Kapus in AP and the Gujjars in Rajasthan are in the same league as the Jats and the Marathas, with their ambitions speaking the language of affirmative action based on backwardness.

The fact is that rural wages have shot up across India over the past two decades and hundreds of millions of people from formerly poor communities are looking beyond basic needs as they go to vote. Steady, influential government jobs are among their key demands. Rising literacy and the growth of media-based knowledge and smartphones are making them feel more empowered. The Vanniyars in Tamil Nadu were among the earliest OBC groups to discover their "backward" power when the Pattali Makkal Katchi was formed by Dr. S Ramadoss in 1989. The Lingayats in Karnataka, though relatively forward, are a de-facto political party who played a major role in the Congress retaining a measure of power in the state in assembly elections last year.&nbsp;

Whatever the detail, the writing is on the wall in the new year. While TV studio debates may centre around the Congress and the BJP, in the deeper game of electoral chess on the ground, you have to watch out for community leaders who will play a major role in shaping alliances and coalitions. They will also be spoilers in close contests in the first-past-the-post electoral system, with enough capacity to thwart someone's chance of victory even when they can't get a seat themselves. Mainstream parties try to co-opt, fool or break up smaller parties using their machinations through the media, money and manoeuvres. Some of it has already happened. More will happen in the coming days.

I expect backroom deals with backward groups taking the centre stage somewhere down the line in the new year. Watch out for some leaders who may look like jokers but can turn out to be heroes or villains as the world's largest democracy goes to the polls.

(This article was originally published on Zeenews. Read the <a href="http://zeenews.india.com/blogs/2019-lok-sabha-elections-more-than-just-bjp-vs-congress-smaller-parties-hold-the-key-2167664.html">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

There are moments of epiphany when a bright flash of light appears in the mind's eye to give us an enlightening idea of some hard truth or knowledge. I had such a moment on the eve of the new year when I read about a political party from Uttar Pradesh called Nishad Party.

There are moments of epiphany when a bright flash of light appears in the mind's eye to give us an enlightening idea of some hard truth or knowledge. I had such a moment on the eve of the new year when I read about a political party from Uttar Pradesh called Nishad Party. It is in the news after its members pelted stones and killed a policeman on duty at Ghazipur in the eastern part of the state a couple of hours after Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a rally in the area. The Nishad community has been demanding reservations in government jobs. Is there anything new there? The Gujjars in Rajasthan, the Marathas in Maharashtra, the Patidars (Patels) in Gujarat, the Kapus in Andhra Pradesh and the Jats in Haryana are among those demanding job quotas in what I call post-Mandal politics. After a broad alliance of backward castes (technically known as Other Backward Classes in administrative language) managed to get quotas through the implementation of the Mandal Commission report in 1990, dissensions and rivalries within this category and those left out of the game but feeling backward in political terms, have been exercising their electoral muscle across India. I confess I had not heard of the Nishad Party enough to have applied my mind, although it contested as many as 100 assembly seats in the last UP elections. Officially, the Nishad party describes itself as the derivative of an acronym: Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal. In effect, it represents boatmen and fishermen groups such as the Nishad, Bind and Kewat communities. There are also other parties in UP such as the Apna Dal (S) representing the Kurmis -- who are not high enough in the state but have a chief minister in Nitish Kumar in neighbouring Bihar. In Andhra Pradesh, actor Pawan Kalyan is leading the Jana Sena party. He does not associate himself with any caste, but he is identified with the Kapus on account of his birth. The Jana Sena is giving headaches to chief minister Chandrababu Naidu, which kind of explains why the CM is trying to assume a national role as a key mover-shaker in opposition efforts to dislodge Modi's BJP from power. Voters look kindly at regional leaders assuming national prominence, partly in pride and partly in the hope that a national win will result in more local gains. For all practical purposes, the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti in Gujarat led by Hardik Patel is as good as a regional caste-based party, though it calls itself non-political. It played a major role in Congress improving its show in the last state assembly elections. A study in the respected Economic and Political Weekly on recent caste-based quota stirs concluded that the Jats, the Marathas and the Patels were "already closer to the upper castes than to the more disadvantaged groups in their respective states. Their anxieties seem to be based more on perception than on empirical evidence. " We can't probably say that about the backward Nishads in UP, but relatively speaking the Kapus in AP and the Gujjars in Rajasthan are in the same league as the Jats and the Marathas, with their ambitions speaking the language of affirmative action based on backwardness. The fact is that rural wages have shot up across India over the past two decades and hundreds of millions of people from formerly poor communities are looking beyond basic needs as they go to vote. Steady, influential government jobs are among their key demands. Rising literacy and the growth of media-based knowledge and smartphones are making them feel more empowered. The Vanniyars in Tamil Nadu were among the earliest OBC groups to discover their "backward" power when the Pattali Makkal Katchi was formed by Dr. S Ramadoss in 1989. The Lingayats in Karnataka, though relatively forward, are a de-facto political party who played a major role in the Congress retaining a measure of power in the state in assembly elections last year. Whatever the detail, the writing is on the wall in the new year. While TV studio debates may centre around the Congress and the BJP, in the deeper game of electoral chess on the ground, you have to watch out for community leaders who will play a major role in shaping alliances and coalitions. They will also be spoilers in close contests in the first-past-the-post electoral system, with enough capacity to thwart someone's chance of victory even when they can't get a seat themselves. Mainstream parties try to co-opt, fool or break up smaller parties using their machinations through the media, money and manoeuvres. Some of it has already happened. More will happen in the coming days. I expect backroom deals with backward groups taking the centre stage somewhere down the line in the new year. Watch out for some leaders who may look like jokers but can turn out to be heroes or villains as the world's largest democracy goes to the polls. (This article was originally published on Zeenews. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

2019 Lok Sabha elections more than just BJP vs Congress, smaller parties hold the key

American Walter K Andersen, the author of the book on the RSS "The Brotherhood in Saffron" has been a keen South Asia watcher for decades. He has worked extensively for the US government at various levels from the days Henry Kissinger. He is in India once again witnessing the state elections and the big general elections in 2019.

He spoke exclusively to WION on the rise of the BJP &amp; RSS, PM Modi and his relations with President Trump and other big issues connected with the ruling party.

WION: How do you view PM Modi's tenure now that his government is set to face the electorate again next year?

Walter K Andersen: That is a complicated question because there are layers of success. India is now the fastest growing economy in the world today and that has been the status for the last four and a half years. The country has also received the largest foreign direct investment (FDI), I think it was $61 billion last year, which more than China. Also, infrastructure work has been going on but that has a delayed reaction, infrastructure work and FDI results do not show immediately.

The failure has been on the issue of jobs which has had a political impact but then no one could really do it because the number is quite high, in millions. He came into office with the expectation that he will be able to create a lot of jobs for many young people, but he has been able to help the poor... there are a large number of poor people. The health scheme is the perfect example, the gas cylinder scheme too.

WION: Also, the BJP is now in 19 states across India which seems to have fueled it.

Walter K Andersen: Yes, the Opposition wasn't able to put up candidates which captured the imagination of the people. There has been a blowback in the three states which have gone to the polls in which the BJP seems to be running neck-and-neck but they have been in power for quite a few years.

Rajasthan is an example which tends to go back and forth, so if they lose Rajasthan it won't be unusual. They have dominated Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh for quite some time, so it remains to be seen how much the anti-incumbency factor works against the BJP.

WION: As far as PM Modi the statesman is concerned, how does the West view him?

Walter K Andersen: Don't forget he could not visit the US for over a dozen years due to the Godhra riots but once it was clear he was going to be prime minister in 2014, the US ambassador at the time Nancy Powell went to visit him with flowers and there was a sense that maybe he wouldn't get a good reception but in fact he has. PM Modi has been able to turnaround his preception.

PM Modi invited Obama and they seemed to get along beautifully with each other. I understand he invited President Trump for the Republic Day celebrations but for some reason, it didn't work out but I won't be surprised if President Trump is not invited for the big event later.

WION: How do you view PM Modi's relations with President Trump?

Walter K Andersen: PM Modi worked at getting along, he did his homework on what President Trump was like, the prime minister is a very good politician. He is also a good actor, he has done it from when he was a child. If you watch him on the stage, he has a stage presence, he seems to be someone who was born for the stage.

He is also very good at private conversation, I have met him and he looks at you as if you are the most important person, unlike other prominent people who look over your shoulder. He remembers who you are and the circumstances in which you met him earlier which is very effective.

WION: And about your book "The Brotherhood In Saffron", how has that been viewed in India?

Walter K Andersen: Actually, PM Modi read it and said it is outdated, he didn't say write another one (laughs). It was of course written in 1988, at that time Congress was still the dominant party, the BJP was relatively a small party, but some things haven't changed.

The things that have changed is India's largest labour union, India's largest student group and India's largest party - the ruling party - and you can just go down the list and you can see how the RSS has penetrated in all parts of society.

WION: The rise of the RSS has been quite meteoric in the last few years.

Walter K Andersen: Yes, the growth was driven by the economic reforms of the 90s and as the Indian economy grew, urbanisation began to take place and that seems to have worked to the benefit of the Sangh including the BJP.

WION: How do you view the effect of the RSS on the party and then the country?

Walter K Andersen: Obviously, it has some influence. During the elections their cadre worked for the party. In the recent state elections, the RSS cadres went all out in Rajasthan and they used their polling network and the grassroots connect to find out how was the party faring and they got word that they have problems, so in the last few weeks they activated the cadre to attend the local meetings. In fact, the RSS is the best polling agency in India. They really go to the local level - the shakhas and they collect local information and pass it to the party.

WION: How do you think that affects the party?

Walter K Andersen: There is a common feeling that the BJP and the RSS sit down together but that is incorrect. Both are separate organizations and they have differences. Right now the big issue is the Ram Temple at Ayodhya.

WION: The view of the party and RSS it seems differs...

Walter K Andersen: Yes, the RSS and some of the affiliates like the VHP want the construction of the Ram Temple to start tomorrow but within the party, they think we need legislation and there are other views. The other big issue is on development.

The RSS has a much more older, protective view on the Indian economy. It is much less enthusiastic about FDI. The affiliates too the Mazdoor Sangh, the Swadeshi Jagran Manch were organised in the late 90s to oppose FDI and it still does.

WION: Is that good for the country?

Walter K Andersen: It certainly hasn't harmed the country, it has generated debate which one does not often see in political parties. It allows them to think. PM Modi sides with globalisation because he thinks it creates more jobs. He comes from a small enterprise background, his father ran a tea shop, so he understands you have to keep a ledger of inputs and outputs... so he understands as a young person the frustrations involved in moving up the ranks.

WION: In foreign affairs, what do you think has been PM Modi's greatest achievement?

Walter K Andersen: Ironically, I think it is getting India more involved in the international community and in relations with China. It now wants to improve its relations with India. PM Modi too wants to improve relations with China, he has been there several times. He has said some very complimentary things about China but he is a nationalist and the Chinese recognise it.

The RSS wants him to protect India's security and PM Modi has done it at Doklam, he has been able to do it and both sides declared victory which is the best thing - a win-win situation.

WION: And finally, how do you see Amit Shah and PM Modi working together?

Walter K Andersen: It is a remarkable pair. I haven't seen anything like it in Indian politics. There is an example of this in the late 19th century in Germany with Bismark who would organise things and the Emperor who was the public figure. A man like Amit Shah is all organization, he works the ground... he has no doubt built the most effective political organisation which is the BJP.

Amit Shah has worked at the booth level and has people who give feedback and analysis, so planning and execution helps the party and PM Modi and Amit Shah get along well too. They are two very self-possessed individuals, not insulted easily, a lot of people feel insulted, in that sense he is much like our President but then if you feel insulted, you should never be in politics.

I would like to have either one of them on my side in a battle, they are tough guys.

WION: But for the BJP the question is what next?

Walter K Andersen: Yes that is true, there does not seem to be a successor. It is true for Amit Shah as well. He has deputies but none that I know who is waiting to step in... the party needs both PM Modi and Amit Shah.

American Walter K Andersen, the author of the book on the RSS "The Brotherhood in Saffron" has been a keen South Asia watcher for decades. He has worked extensively for the US government at various levels from the days Henry Kissinger.

American Walter K Andersen, the author of the book on the RSS "The Brotherhood in Saffron" has been a keen South Asia watcher for decades. He has worked extensively for the US government at various levels from the days Henry Kissinger. He is in India once again witnessing the state elections and the big general elections in 2019. He spoke exclusively to WION on the rise of the BJP & RSS, PM Modi and his relations with President Trump and other big issues connected with the ruling party. WION: How do you view PM Modi's tenure now that his government is set to face the electorate again next year? Walter K Andersen: That is a complicated question because there are layers of success. India is now the fastest growing economy in the world today and that has been the status for the last four and a half years. The country has also received the largest foreign direct investment (FDI), I think it was $61 billion last year, which more than China. Also, infrastructure work has been going on but that has a delayed reaction, infrastructure work and FDI results do not show immediately. The failure has been on the issue of jobs which has had a political impact but then no one could really do it because the number is quite high, in millions. He came into office with the expectation that he will be able to create a lot of jobs for many young people, but he has been able to help the poor... there are a large number of poor people. The health scheme is the perfect example, the gas cylinder scheme too. WION: Also, the BJP is now in 19 states across India which seems to have fueled it. Walter K Andersen: Yes, the Opposition wasn't able to put up candidates which captured the imagination of the people. There has been a blowback in the three states which have gone to the polls in which the BJP seems to be running neck-and-neck but they have been in power for quite a few years. Rajasthan is an example which tends to go back and forth, so if they lose Rajasthan it won't be unusual. They have dominated Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh for quite some time, so it remains to be seen how much the anti-incumbency factor works against the BJP. WION: As far as PM Modi the statesman is concerned, how does the West view him? Walter K Andersen: Don't forget he could not visit the US for over a dozen years due to the Godhra riots but once it was clear he was going to be prime minister in 2014, the US ambassador at the time Nancy Powell went to visit him with flowers and there was a sense that maybe he wouldn't get a good reception but in fact he has. PM Modi has been able to turnaround his preception. PM Modi invited Obama and they seemed to get along beautifully with each other. I understand he invited President Trump for the Republic Day celebrations but for some reason, it didn't work out but I won't be surprised if President Trump is not invited for the big event later. WION: How do you view PM Modi's relations with President Trump? Walter K Andersen: PM Modi worked at getting along, he did his homework on what President Trump was like, the prime minister is a very good politician. He is also a good actor, he has done it from when he was a child. If you watch him on the stage, he has a stage presence, he seems to be someone who was born for the stage. He is also very good at private conversation, I have met him and he looks at you as if you are the most important person, unlike other prominent people who look over your shoulder. He remembers who you are and the circumstances in which you met him earlier which is very effective. WION: And about your book "The Brotherhood In Saffron", how has that been viewed in India? Walter K Andersen: Actually, PM Modi read it and said it is outdated, he didn't say write another one (laughs). It was of course written in 1988, at that time Congress was still the dominant party, the BJP was relatively a small party, but some things haven't changed. The things that have changed is India's largest labour union, India's largest student group and India's largest party - the ruling party - and you can just go down the list and you can see how the RSS has penetrated in all parts of society. WION: The rise of the RSS has been quite meteoric in the last few years. Walter K Andersen: Yes, the growth was driven by the economic reforms of the 90s and as the Indian economy grew, urbanisation began to take place and that seems to have worked to the benefit of the Sangh including the BJP. WION: How do you view the effect of the RSS on the party and then the country? Walter K Andersen: Obviously, it has some influence. During the elections their cadre worked for the party. In the recent state elections, the RSS cadres went all out in Rajasthan and they used their polling network and the grassroots connect to find out how was the party faring and they got word that they have problems, so in the last few weeks they activated the cadre to attend the local meetings. In fact, the RSS is the best polling agency in India. They really go to the local level - the shakhas and they collect local information and pass it to the party. WION: How do you think that affects the party? Walter K Andersen: There is a common feeling that the BJP and the RSS sit down together but that is incorrect. Both are separate organizations and they have differences. Right now the big issue is the Ram Temple at Ayodhya. WION: The view of the party and RSS it seems differs... Walter K Andersen: Yes, the RSS and some of the affiliates like the VHP want the construction of the Ram Temple to start tomorrow but within the party, they think we need legislation and there are other views. The other big issue is on development. The RSS has a much more older, protective view on the Indian economy. It is much less enthusiastic about FDI. The affiliates too the Mazdoor Sangh, the Swadeshi Jagran Manch were organised in the late 90s to oppose FDI and it still does. WION: Is that good for the country? Walter K Andersen: It certainly hasn't harmed the country, it has generated debate which one does not often see in political parties. It allows them to think. PM Modi sides with globalisation because he thinks it creates more jobs. He comes from a small enterprise background, his father ran a tea shop, so he understands you have to keep a ledger of inputs and outputs... so he understands as a young person the frustrations involved in moving up the ranks. WION: In foreign affairs, what do you think has been PM Modi's greatest achievement? Walter K Andersen: Ironically, I think it is getting India more involved in the international community and in relations with China. It now wants to improve its relations with India. PM Modi too wants to improve relations with China, he has been there several times. He has said some very complimentary things about China but he is a nationalist and the Chinese recognise it. The RSS wants him to protect India's security and PM Modi has done it at Doklam, he has been able to do it and both sides declared victory which is the best thing - a win-win situation. WION: And finally, how do you see Amit Shah and PM Modi working together? Walter K Andersen: It is a remarkable pair. I haven't seen anything like it in Indian politics. There is an example of this in the late 19th century in Germany with Bismark who would organise things and the Emperor who was the public figure. A man like Amit Shah is all organization, he works the ground... he has no doubt built the most effective political organisation which is the BJP. Amit Shah has worked at the booth level and has people who give feedback and analysis, so planning and execution helps the party and PM Modi and Amit Shah get along well too. They are two very self-possessed individuals, not insulted easily, a lot of people feel insulted, in that sense he is much like our President but then if you feel insulted, you should never be in politics. I would like to have either one of them on my side in a battle, they are tough guys. WION: But for the BJP the question is what next? Walter K Andersen: Yes that is true, there does not seem to be a successor. It is true for Amit Shah as well. He has deputies but none that I know who is waiting to step in... the party needs both PM Modi and Amit Shah.

Watch: PM Modi, Amit Shah a remarkable pair in Indian politics, says India watcher Andersen

For many years now political parties’ manifestos have been an exercise in preparing a ‘good document’ than identifying the real problems confronting the Indian polity. &nbsp;Come election time, manifesto committees formed by parties start doing the ritual of meeting various stakeholders, vested interest groups, and the general public. 
 
These meetings are supposed to give the politicians a concrete idea of the concerns of various sections of people, be it farmers, students, women or the business community. Besides these meeting, in any case, politicians are supposed to be aware of the ground reality that people are concerned with.&nbsp;

However, a quick analysis of previous manifestos of the BJP and the Congress shows that political manifestos often don’t address the most critical issues facing the country. &nbsp;

And even when they do talk about deep-rooted problems like poverty, caste-based discrimination and the terrible state of small and landless farmers, for instance, it is done in a very perfunctory manner.&nbsp;

Therefore, it can be argued that political manifestos are in an inverted sense a good test of what parties actually consider to be significant issues. More often what is in the manifesto is not likely to become a poll issue. For instance, take the example of economic inequality itself. &nbsp;Oxfam’s latest report on inequality has ranked India at the bottom of an index containing &nbsp;157 countries.

The index was based on a new database of indicators that tracked performance on social spending, tax and labour rights. &nbsp;Moreover, every year we are told of the shocking levels to which inequality has risen in India over the last seventy years. &nbsp;Last year, Oxfam had revealed that of the total wealth created in India in 2016 the richest 1 per cent in India gobbled up 73 per cent of it. This basically means that 99 per cent of people of India received only 27 per cent of the total wealth generated. &nbsp;

It is election season again with four states going to elections in the next four months. The General elections too are less than eight months away. But what are the issues that are hogging the rallies that have held so far in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh? Besides the usual claims to waive off farm loans, provide employment, set up industries, and giving reservation to communities, our politicians are once again shying away from even acknowledging the monumental inequality in India. &nbsp;

Economic inequality coupled with entrenched social inequality is one of the root causes of poverty, therefore, when politicians make claims about eradicating poverty, providing free housing and other freebies, they are only obfuscating the actual issue that needs to be solved. If they were actually serious about raising the income levels and standard of living, every third person in India wouldn’t have to live on less than Rs 140 a day. &nbsp;

No wonder then that India also performs terribly on its efforts to reduce inequality. India ranks 147th out of 157 countries on its commitment to reducing inequality. &nbsp;According to calculations done by Oxfam, if India were to adopt meaningful policies to reduce inequality by just 33 per cent ‘more than 170 million people would no longer be poor’.&nbsp;

But going by the prevailing priorities of political parties as seen in their rallies, it is clear that no party is in fact committed to deal with rising inequality. We have Rahul Gandhi repackaging himself and his party in a religious hue, Mamata Banerjee is announcing doles for Durga Puja, and the BJP is diverting the attention of people from issues like unemployment and jobless growth by propping up agendas like Ram Mandir, and illegal Bangladeshis.&nbsp;

If India is to really progress, its common people must force political parties to talk about the elephant in the room- inequality. Because, if left unaddressed, it will lead to nationwide instability and strife. &nbsp;&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

For many years now political parties’ manifestos have been an exercise in preparing a ‘good document’ than identifying the real problems confronting the Indian polity.

For many years now political parties’ manifestos have been an exercise in preparing a ‘good document’ than identifying the real problems confronting the Indian polity. Come election time, manifesto committees formed by parties start doing the ritual of meeting various stakeholders, vested interest groups, and the general public. These meetings are supposed to give the politicians a concrete idea of the concerns of various sections of people, be it farmers, students, women or the business community. Besides these meeting, in any case, politicians are supposed to be aware of the ground reality that people are concerned with. However, a quick analysis of previous manifestos of the BJP and the Congress shows that political manifestos often don’t address the most critical issues facing the country. And even when they do talk about deep-rooted problems like poverty, caste-based discrimination and the terrible state of small and landless farmers, for instance, it is done in a very perfunctory manner. Therefore, it can be argued that political manifestos are in an inverted sense a good test of what parties actually consider to be significant issues. More often what is in the manifesto is not likely to become a poll issue. For instance, take the example of economic inequality itself. Oxfam’s latest report on inequality has ranked India at the bottom of an index containing 157 countries. The index was based on a new database of indicators that tracked performance on social spending, tax and labour rights. Moreover, every year we are told of the shocking levels to which inequality has risen in India over the last seventy years. Last year, Oxfam had revealed that of the total wealth created in India in 2016 the richest 1 per cent in India gobbled up 73 per cent of it. This basically means that 99 per cent of people of India received only 27 per cent of the total wealth generated. It is election season again with four states going to elections in the next four months. The General elections too are less than eight months away. But what are the issues that are hogging the rallies that have held so far in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh? Besides the usual claims to waive off farm loans, provide employment, set up industries, and giving reservation to communities, our politicians are once again shying away from even acknowledging the monumental inequality in India. Economic inequality coupled with entrenched social inequality is one of the root causes of poverty, therefore, when politicians make claims about eradicating poverty, providing free housing and other freebies, they are only obfuscating the actual issue that needs to be solved. If they were actually serious about raising the income levels and standard of living, every third person in India wouldn’t have to live on less than Rs 140 a day. No wonder then that India also performs terribly on its efforts to reduce inequality. India ranks 147th out of 157 countries on its commitment to reducing inequality. According to calculations done by Oxfam, if India were to adopt meaningful policies to reduce inequality by just 33 per cent ‘more than 170 million people would no longer be poor’. But going by the prevailing priorities of political parties as seen in their rallies, it is clear that no party is in fact committed to deal with rising inequality. We have Rahul Gandhi repackaging himself and his party in a religious hue, Mamata Banerjee is announcing doles for Durga Puja, and the BJP is diverting the attention of people from issues like unemployment and jobless growth by propping up agendas like Ram Mandir, and illegal Bangladeshis. If India is to really progress, its common people must force political parties to talk about the elephant in the room- inequality. Because, if left unaddressed, it will lead to nationwide instability and strife. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Economic and social inequality not a priority for political parties 

elections-2019

Elections 2019, News on Elections 2019, stories on Elections 2019, articles on Elections 2019, Elections 2019 stories at Wion, Elections 2019 news, Elections 2019 latest news