EU leaders gathered on Sunday to make a formal offer of a Brexit package deal to Prime Minister Theresa May that she and they hope can survive fury in the British parliament to ease Britain out of the bloc in March.

After 18 months of negotiation, including some last-minute brinkmanship from Spain seeking guarantees of a role in the future of Gibraltar, the 27 national leaders will endorse terms for withdrawal and an outline of future EU-UK ties at a tightly choreographed summit that will conclude with a visit from May.

The biggest question now facing the European Union is whether May's divided minority government can steer the deal, which foresees London following many EU rules to keep easy trade access, through fierce resistance in parliament in the coming weeks from both supporters and opponents of Brexit.

Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite, among the first to arrive, refused to be drawn on what might happen if the deal fails, saying it was up to British lawmakers to decide.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, whose country is one Britain's closest trading partners, praised May's handling of the difficult negotiations and said he was confident that she could see the deal through the London parliament.

Saying the EU "hates" Brexit, Rutte said: "Nobody's winning -- we are all losing." But, he said, the deal was an acceptable compromise for all that gave May a chance to clinch a solution.

Grybauskaite said there were at least four possible outcomes if the British parliament blocks the package and named three - that Britons would hold a second referendum, hold a new election to replace May or return to Brussels to try and renegotiate the package. A fourth is that Britain will simply crash out of the bloc on March 29 without legal clarity.

Both sides have been making preparations for such a "no deal" scenario, though the EU insists Britain has more to lose. The pound has strengthened since the deal came together over the past 10 days, but companies and investors remain nervous.

Summit chair Donald Tusk said "no one will have reasons to be happy" when Brexit is concluded but quoted British rock star Freddie Mercury of Queen, who died 27 years ago on Saturday, to say: "Friends will be friends right till the end."

The 27 EU national leaders will gather for an hour or so to formally endorse both a detailed treaty setting out the terms on which Britain will leave in an orderly manner in March and a declaration outlining how Britain can keep close to its biggest market by following many EU rules after a 2-4-year transition.

They will then meet May briefly as she seeks momentum to get the package through the British parliament in the coming weeks.

British opposition

The Democratic Unionist Party, whose votes from Northern Ireland have helped May to govern since she lost her majority in a misjudged snap election last year, said it would try to block a Brexit deal it called "pitiful" - partly because it binds London to many EU rules it will no longer help set and partly as the DUP fears it could weaken the province's ties to Britain.

No one knows what will happen if parliament rejects May's plan, which she and EU leaders say is the best deal available.

In an open letter to the nation, published on Sunday, May said she would campaign "heart and soul" to get her Brexit deal through: "It will be a deal that is in our national interest – one that works for our whole country and all of our people, whether you voted Leave or Remain," she said.

Sunday newspapers said different factions in her own Conservative party were preparing alternative plans to keep Britain closer to the EU should her deal fail as many expect.

Wrangling over how to keep open troubled Northern Ireland's land border with the EU without creating disruptive customs barriers with the Irish Republic dogged much of the 18 months of talks before accords were struck this month. Another relic of the imperial past, Britain's 300-year-old naval base on Spain's southern coast, threatened to derail plans at the last minute.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez threatened to boycott Sunday's meeting if he did not get amendments to the deal to ensure Madrid gets a say in Gibraltar's future ties with the EU.

After officials wrangled through the night, he announced on Saturday afternoon that he had such written pledges. Brussels officials said those essentially confirmed what most EU leaders had already understood - that Spain must have a binding say over how any future EU-UK trade pact might affect Gibraltar.

May will meet Sanchez for face-to-face talks during the summit, officials said.

EU leaders gathered on Sunday to make a formal offer of a Brexit package deal to Prime Minister Theresa May that she and they hope can survive fury in the British parliament to ease Britain out of the bloc in March.

EU leaders gathered on Sunday to make a formal offer of a Brexit package deal to Prime Minister Theresa May that she and they hope can survive fury in the British parliament to ease Britain out of the bloc in March. After 18 months of negotiation, including some last-minute brinkmanship from Spain seeking guarantees of a role in the future of Gibraltar, the 27 national leaders will endorse terms for withdrawal and an outline of future EU-UK ties at a tightly choreographed summit that will conclude with a visit from May. The biggest question now facing the European Union is whether May's divided minority government can steer the deal, which foresees London following many EU rules to keep easy trade access, through fierce resistance in parliament in the coming weeks from both supporters and opponents of Brexit. Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite, among the first to arrive, refused to be drawn on what might happen if the deal fails, saying it was up to British lawmakers to decide. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, whose country is one Britain's closest trading partners, praised May's handling of the difficult negotiations and said he was confident that she could see the deal through the London parliament. Saying the EU "hates" Brexit, Rutte said: "Nobody's winning -- we are all losing." But, he said, the deal was an acceptable compromise for all that gave May a chance to clinch a solution. Grybauskaite said there were at least four possible outcomes if the British parliament blocks the package and named three - that Britons would hold a second referendum, hold a new election to replace May or return to Brussels to try and renegotiate the package. A fourth is that Britain will simply crash out of the bloc on March 29 without legal clarity. Both sides have been making preparations for such a "no deal" scenario, though the EU insists Britain has more to lose. The pound has strengthened since the deal came together over the past 10 days, but companies and investors remain nervous. Summit chair Donald Tusk said "no one will have reasons to be happy" when Brexit is concluded but quoted British rock star Freddie Mercury of Queen, who died 27 years ago on Saturday, to say: "Friends will be friends right till the end." The 27 EU national leaders will gather for an hour or so to formally endorse both a detailed treaty setting out the terms on which Britain will leave in an orderly manner in March and a declaration outlining how Britain can keep close to its biggest market by following many EU rules after a 2-4-year transition. They will then meet May briefly as she seeks momentum to get the package through the British parliament in the coming weeks. British opposition The Democratic Unionist Party, whose votes from Northern Ireland have helped May to govern since she lost her majority in a misjudged snap election last year, said it would try to block a Brexit deal it called "pitiful" - partly because it binds London to many EU rules it will no longer help set and partly as the DUP fears it could weaken the province's ties to Britain. No one knows what will happen if parliament rejects May's plan, which she and EU leaders say is the best deal available. In an open letter to the nation, published on Sunday, May said she would campaign "heart and soul" to get her Brexit deal through: "It will be a deal that is in our national interest – one that works for our whole country and all of our people, whether you voted Leave or Remain," she said. Sunday newspapers said different factions in her own Conservative party were preparing alternative plans to keep Britain closer to the EU should her deal fail as many expect. Wrangling over how to keep open troubled Northern Ireland's land border with the EU without creating disruptive customs barriers with the Irish Republic dogged much of the 18 months of talks before accords were struck this month. Another relic of the imperial past, Britain's 300-year-old naval base on Spain's southern coast, threatened to derail plans at the last minute. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez threatened to boycott Sunday's meeting if he did not get amendments to the deal to ensure Madrid gets a say in Gibraltar's future ties with the EU. After officials wrangled through the night, he announced on Saturday afternoon that he had such written pledges. Brussels officials said those essentially confirmed what most EU leaders had already understood - that Spain must have a binding say over how any future EU-UK trade pact might affect Gibraltar. May will meet Sanchez for face-to-face talks during the summit, officials said.

European Union leaders to hand UK PM Theresa May Brexit package

As the Brexit negotiations head towards an endgame, there is turmoil all around. British politics is on knife’s edge with the future of Prime Minister Theresa May and in some ways the entire Conservative Party on the line. The Opposition, too, is struggling to put its own house in order and even the European Union is facing disunity within its ranks despite pretensions of a united front.&nbsp;

Last week, an agreement on the withdrawal deal was reached in principle by May and the European Union (EU) which included a £39 billion “divorce bill” and the controversial customs “backstop” which keeps the UK temporarily in the EU customs union so as to prevent the return of manned customs posts at the Irish border. However, the joint political declaration on future relations which is to be confirmed on Sunday is only temporary. It will be the 21-month transition period after Britain leaves the EU on March 29, 2019, that would see the finalisation of the binding agreement. And this has led to challenges from all sides.

May is struggling to finalise a Brexit deal to be agreed at this Sunday’s summit of European leaders even as she is under pressure from her own MPs not to cede any further ground in negotiations. For the time being, her threat is that she has managed to get the best possible deal from the EU and that it’s either this deal or no deal and, therefore, no Brexit that has secured her position. But there is a demand for more clarity on all sides of the British Parliament about the exact terms of UK’s future engagement with the EU if at all the Parliament is to support the deal.&nbsp;

Despite a number of resignations from her cabinet and backroom manoeuvring to topple her from No 10 Downing Street, May looks stronger today than she looked last week and that’s a tribute to her own political skills and quite an accomplishment under the present circumstances. Yet her critics remain unrelenting. One of her strongest detractors, Jacob Rees-Mogg, has made a case that the time has come for May’s detractors to push for a confidence vote in May or face the spectacle of her leading the Tories into the next election. But he has accepted that he doesn’t have the required threshold of 48 letters needed to trigger a contest for Tory leadership. Opinion polls are also underscoring that support for May is growing among the British populace which is looking for a speedy resolution of this crisis. &nbsp;

On the other side, the EU had to complete the text on future ties with the UK on Tuesday but several member states have raised objection, leading to a delay. Countries have highlighted several issues such as UK access to the EU single market, access to UK waters for EU boats as well as Gibraltar. Spain, which is worried about the future status of Gibraltar, has warned it will reject the draft Brexit withdrawal deal without a clarification of the text on future talks on the status of Gibraltar. France has raised concerns about fishing rights and nations as the Netherlands and Denmark, remain concerned about the potential competitive advantage to UK businesses over the European without the UK being tied to strict environmental regulations.

Despite these concerns, Brussels would be hoping that when it would come to the crunch on Sunday, all 27 member nations of the EU would sign up to the Brexit deal so as to avoid a situation where there is a no deal and further uncertainty haunts the region. And in some ways, it is in EU’s interest that the British Prime Minister gets her plan approved by the British Parliament. A domestic political crisis in the UK is not in EU’s interest at this critical juncture. May also wants to demonstrate that she is fighting hard to secure British interests. So in a way, both May and the EU are sailing in the same boat.&nbsp;

As Britain struggles with its future relationship with the EU, its outreach to nations like India has been growing in order to seek out new avenues for economic relationships. British officials have been signalling that Brexit could augur well for trade ties between India and the EU as the two nations would find it easier to conclude a free trade pact without the involvement of the entire panoply of EU member states.&nbsp;

The economic relationship between the UK and India certainly remains a robust one. While the two nations can look forward to a potential FTA, the negotiations can only proceed once the UK has put its own house in order. India will also be looking for concessions on Indian skilled labour accessing UK markets.&nbsp;

The challenge for the UK at the moment is to sort out its own internal deliberations on the future of its trajectory with the EU. New Delhi will assess its own future with the UK in light of the choices London makes with Brussels.

(This article was originally published on DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-brexit-a-challenge-for-uk-an-opportunity-for-india-2688308">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

As the Brexit negotiations head towards an endgame, there is turmoil all around. British politics is on knife’s edge with the future of Prime Minister Theresa May and in some ways the entire Conservative Party on the line.

As the Brexit negotiations head towards an endgame, there is turmoil all around. British politics is on knife’s edge with the future of Prime Minister Theresa May and in some ways the entire Conservative Party on the line. The Opposition, too, is struggling to put its own house in order and even the European Union is facing disunity within its ranks despite pretensions of a united front. Last week, an agreement on the withdrawal deal was reached in principle by May and the European Union (EU) which included a £39 billion “divorce bill” and the controversial customs “backstop” which keeps the UK temporarily in the EU customs union so as to prevent the return of manned customs posts at the Irish border. However, the joint political declaration on future relations which is to be confirmed on Sunday is only temporary. It will be the 21-month transition period after Britain leaves the EU on March 29, 2019, that would see the finalisation of the binding agreement. And this has led to challenges from all sides. May is struggling to finalise a Brexit deal to be agreed at this Sunday’s summit of European leaders even as she is under pressure from her own MPs not to cede any further ground in negotiations. For the time being, her threat is that she has managed to get the best possible deal from the EU and that it’s either this deal or no deal and, therefore, no Brexit that has secured her position. But there is a demand for more clarity on all sides of the British Parliament about the exact terms of UK’s future engagement with the EU if at all the Parliament is to support the deal. Despite a number of resignations from her cabinet and backroom manoeuvring to topple her from No 10 Downing Street, May looks stronger today than she looked last week and that’s a tribute to her own political skills and quite an accomplishment under the present circumstances. Yet her critics remain unrelenting. One of her strongest detractors, Jacob Rees-Mogg, has made a case that the time has come for May’s detractors to push for a confidence vote in May or face the spectacle of her leading the Tories into the next election. But he has accepted that he doesn’t have the required threshold of 48 letters needed to trigger a contest for Tory leadership. Opinion polls are also underscoring that support for May is growing among the British populace which is looking for a speedy resolution of this crisis. On the other side, the EU had to complete the text on future ties with the UK on Tuesday but several member states have raised objection, leading to a delay. Countries have highlighted several issues such as UK access to the EU single market, access to UK waters for EU boats as well as Gibraltar. Spain, which is worried about the future status of Gibraltar, has warned it will reject the draft Brexit withdrawal deal without a clarification of the text on future talks on the status of Gibraltar. France has raised concerns about fishing rights and nations as the Netherlands and Denmark, remain concerned about the potential competitive advantage to UK businesses over the European without the UK being tied to strict environmental regulations. Despite these concerns, Brussels would be hoping that when it would come to the crunch on Sunday, all 27 member nations of the EU would sign up to the Brexit deal so as to avoid a situation where there is a no deal and further uncertainty haunts the region. And in some ways, it is in EU’s interest that the British Prime Minister gets her plan approved by the British Parliament. A domestic political crisis in the UK is not in EU’s interest at this critical juncture. May also wants to demonstrate that she is fighting hard to secure British interests. So in a way, both May and the EU are sailing in the same boat. As Britain struggles with its future relationship with the EU, its outreach to nations like India has been growing in order to seek out new avenues for economic relationships. British officials have been signalling that Brexit could augur well for trade ties between India and the EU as the two nations would find it easier to conclude a free trade pact without the involvement of the entire panoply of EU member states. The economic relationship between the UK and India certainly remains a robust one. While the two nations can look forward to a potential FTA, the negotiations can only proceed once the UK has put its own house in order. India will also be looking for concessions on Indian skilled labour accessing UK markets. The challenge for the UK at the moment is to sort out its own internal deliberations on the future of its trajectory with the EU. New Delhi will assess its own future with the UK in light of the choices London makes with Brussels. (This article was originally published on DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Brexit: A challenge for UK, an opportunity for India

British Prime Minister Theresa May on Thursday hailed a <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/eu-uk-agree-on-draft-text-laying-out-close-post-brexit-relationship-178825">draft Brexit agreement</a> for future ties between London and Brussels as "the right deal" for Britain and said she was "determined to deliver it".

"This is the right deal for the UK," she said after updating the cabinet on the text of a declaration on post-Brexit relations agreed.

Assuring that the British sovereignty on <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/explainer-what-you-need-to-know-about-gibraltar-in-brexit-talks-178603">Gibraltar </a>will be protected,&nbsp;May said that the Brexit negotiations were at a "critical moment" ahead of an EU summit.&nbsp;

"The negotiations are now at a critical moment," May said, adding that British sovereignty on Gibraltar -- a contentious issue ahead of the summit -- would be "protected".

The EU summit will consider the draft Brexit deal on&nbsp;Sunday alongside a draft divorce agreement struck last week.

(With inputs from AFP)

British Prime Minister Theresa May on Thursday hailed a draft Brexit agreement for future ties between London and Brussels as "the right deal" for Britain and said she was "determined to deliver it".

British Prime Minister Theresa May on Thursday hailed a draft Brexit agreement for future ties between London and Brussels as "the right deal" for Britain and said she was "determined to deliver it". "This is the right deal for the UK," she said after updating the cabinet on the text of a declaration on post-Brexit relations agreed. Assuring that the British sovereignty on Gibraltar will be protected, May said that the Brexit negotiations were at a "critical moment" ahead of an EU summit. "The negotiations are now at a critical moment," May said, adding that British sovereignty on Gibraltar -- a contentious issue ahead of the summit -- would be "protected". The EU summit will consider the draft Brexit deal on Sunday alongside a draft divorce agreement struck last week. (With inputs from AFP)

Draft Brexit agreement 'right deal for the UK': May

Negotiations to secure an orderly Brexit deal will go down to the wire after Theresa May said she would return to Brussels for more talks on the eve of a planned signing summit.

After an inconclusive trip to Brussels to meet EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker, the British prime minister said she would return on Saturday to finalise preparations for a full EU meeting the next day.

It is believed that the texts of the deal will not be final before a meeting of top EU diplomats -- the summit's so-called "sherpas" -- on Friday, frustrating some European leaders.

"There are some further issues that need resolution. We have given direction to our negotiators this evening. The work on those issues will now start immediately," May said in a statement on Wednesday.

"I believe we have been able to give sufficient direction for them to be able to resolve those remaining issues," she said, adding that she would meet Juncker again on Saturday.

With less than four days until Sunday's meeting, a European Commission spokesperson said: "Very good progress was made in meeting between President Juncker and Prime Minister Theresa May."

But she added: "Work is continuing."

News of Saturday's last-ditch meeting will not go down well in Berlin, where Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel had earlier urged negotiators not to reopen talks on the main withdrawal agreement.

"I hope it will be solved by Sunday," she told German lawmakers. "We know how difficult the discussions are in Britain, but I can say for the German government that we agree with this exit agreement."

Negotiators are hammering out details of a political statement on future UK-EU ties that will accompany the divorce deal, under pressure to put it together before the sherpa meeting on Friday.

After enduring another parliamentary grilling at prime minister's questions in London, May slipped out of the Westminster bear pit and crossed the Channel to meet the head of the EU executive.

Having seen off -- at least for now -- a potential leadership challenge by hardline Brexiteers in her own party, she hoped to wring out of Brussels a Brexit arrangement that she can sell to her parliament.

The withdrawal treaty itself is all but final, and preparations are under way for Sunday's summit to sign it, but there remains the matter of the parallel 20-page political declaration on future relations.

European diplomats and EU officials have been in intense talks on the declaration this week.

May must show that she has left nothing on the table if she is to convince British members of parliament to ratify the deal in the coming weeks.

May and Juncker were expected to cover fishing rights and the movement of goods after Brexit, as well as the duration of the transition period and the British territory of Gibraltar, which lies on an outcrop off Spain.

Spain, N&nbsp;Ireland pressure

May faces pressure from her Northern Irish allies, who oppose a deal they say weakens British sovereignty in their province, and from Spain, which has warned it might oppose the accord over Gibraltar.

Madrid wants a veto over applying any agreement on post-transition relations to Gibraltar but May told MPs that Britain "will not exclude Gibraltar from our negotiations on the future relationship".

There is frustration among some EU countries at Spain trying to play hardball so late in the game.&nbsp;

"We are following the latest developments with growing concern and incomprehension -- among the EU27 our Spanish friends are all alone on this," an EU diplomat told AFP.

Madrid reiterated its threat on Wednesday to vote against the draft deal.

Two of May's top ministers quit last week, including her Brexit secretary, while MPs from all parties came out against the withdrawal deal -- increasing the chances that Britain will crash out of the Union on March 29 without an agreement.

The withdrawal deal covers Britain's financial settlement, expatriate citizens' rights, contingency plans to keep open the Irish border and the terms of a post-Brexit transition.

'Show our displeasure'

Opposition to the agreement is also building in the pro-Brexit camp. Anti-Europe Conservatives have savaged the divorce deal, which they say keeps Britain too close to the EU.

Rebels led by MP Jacob Rees-Mogg failed in their attempt to force an immediate confidence vote in May's leadership, but warned they would keep trying.

The withdrawal agreement sets out plans for a 21-month transition after Brexit, in which Britain and the EU want to turn their outline agreement on the future relationship into a full trade deal.

Negotiations to secure an orderly Brexit deal will go down to the wire after Theresa May said she would return to Brussels for more talks on the eve of a planned signing summit.

Negotiations to secure an orderly Brexit deal will go down to the wire after Theresa May said she would return to Brussels for more talks on the eve of a planned signing summit. After an inconclusive trip to Brussels to meet EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker, the British prime minister said she would return on Saturday to finalise preparations for a full EU meeting the next day. It is believed that the texts of the deal will not be final before a meeting of top EU diplomats -- the summit's so-called "sherpas" -- on Friday, frustrating some European leaders. "There are some further issues that need resolution. We have given direction to our negotiators this evening. The work on those issues will now start immediately," May said in a statement on Wednesday. "I believe we have been able to give sufficient direction for them to be able to resolve those remaining issues," she said, adding that she would meet Juncker again on Saturday. With less than four days until Sunday's meeting, a European Commission spokesperson said: "Very good progress was made in meeting between President Juncker and Prime Minister Theresa May." But she added: "Work is continuing." News of Saturday's last-ditch meeting will not go down well in Berlin, where Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel had earlier urged negotiators not to reopen talks on the main withdrawal agreement. "I hope it will be solved by Sunday," she told German lawmakers. "We know how difficult the discussions are in Britain, but I can say for the German government that we agree with this exit agreement." Negotiators are hammering out details of a political statement on future UK-EU ties that will accompany the divorce deal, under pressure to put it together before the sherpa meeting on Friday. After enduring another parliamentary grilling at prime minister's questions in London, May slipped out of the Westminster bear pit and crossed the Channel to meet the head of the EU executive. Having seen off -- at least for now -- a potential leadership challenge by hardline Brexiteers in her own party, she hoped to wring out of Brussels a Brexit arrangement that she can sell to her parliament. The withdrawal treaty itself is all but final, and preparations are under way for Sunday's summit to sign it, but there remains the matter of the parallel 20-page political declaration on future relations. European diplomats and EU officials have been in intense talks on the declaration this week. May must show that she has left nothing on the table if she is to convince British members of parliament to ratify the deal in the coming weeks. May and Juncker were expected to cover fishing rights and the movement of goods after Brexit, as well as the duration of the transition period and the British territory of Gibraltar, which lies on an outcrop off Spain. Spain, N Ireland pressure May faces pressure from her Northern Irish allies, who oppose a deal they say weakens British sovereignty in their province, and from Spain, which has warned it might oppose the accord over Gibraltar. Madrid wants a veto over applying any agreement on post-transition relations to Gibraltar but May told MPs that Britain "will not exclude Gibraltar from our negotiations on the future relationship". There is frustration among some EU countries at Spain trying to play hardball so late in the game. "We are following the latest developments with growing concern and incomprehension -- among the EU27 our Spanish friends are all alone on this," an EU diplomat told AFP. Madrid reiterated its threat on Wednesday to vote against the draft deal. Two of May's top ministers quit last week, including her Brexit secretary, while MPs from all parties came out against the withdrawal deal -- increasing the chances that Britain will crash out of the Union on March 29 without an agreement. The withdrawal deal covers Britain's financial settlement, expatriate citizens' rights, contingency plans to keep open the Irish border and the terms of a post-Brexit transition. 'Show our displeasure' Opposition to the agreement is also building in the pro-Brexit camp. Anti-Europe Conservatives have savaged the divorce deal, which they say keeps Britain too close to the EU. Rebels led by MP Jacob Rees-Mogg failed in their attempt to force an immediate confidence vote in May's leadership, but warned they would keep trying. The withdrawal agreement sets out plans for a 21-month transition after Brexit, in which Britain and the EU want to turn their outline agreement on the future relationship into a full trade deal.

Brexit goes down to wire as May calls last-day talks

By Simon Usherwood

After a week of high drama, even by the usual standards of Brexit, we find ourselves with something of a conundrum. On the one hand, no one in parliament seems to like the text of the Withdrawal Agreement that Theresa May has brought back from her negotiations. On the other, the prime minister remains determined to ensure its ratification and implementation.

The criticism has come from all directions, something that partly explains the current situation.

For those who want to have a more emphatically clean break with the EU, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, the agreement contains much to cause concern. Most prominently, there are the backstop arrangements on Northern Ireland, which will come into effect if a new agreement cannot be signed by the UK and EU by the end of the transition period in December 2020. That backstop now involves maintaining both customs and regulatory alignment for the entire UK and it can only be removed by the mutual agreement of both parties – meaning the EU has a veto on ending it.

But there are other elements, including the suggestion that this customs aspect of the backstop would form the basis of the future relationship, potentially restricting the capacity of the UK to conclude new trade deals with other countries, one of the flagship benefits that Brexiters have been selling in recent months.

Emerging factions

For those who want a close relationship with the EU, the Withdrawal Agreement looks problematic for its lack of commitment to close economic integration and its ambivalence about the status of EU citizens in the EU and UK citizens in the EU.

The recent emergence of the “Norway for now” group, including the MPs Nick Boles and Michael Gove, further complicates matters. They are looking for language that allows for a temporary membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), despite the EU’s (and Norway’s) professed doubts about the possibility, given the disruption to the EEA it would cause.

In short, everyone is seeing what they don’t like in the text and want it changed.

Crucially, however, not one of these different opinions commands any more support in parliament than May’s own position. Each group is pulling in different directions, making it impossible to satisfy everyone by any change.

Remember too that the EU has indicated that it will not be open to renegotiation around the edges of this text – so the only likely route to getting back around the table will be due to a much more major shift in UK priorities, such as a fundamentally different future relationship.

As a result, May’s compromise has perhaps more stability than might be immediately apparent. The prime minister has neither the desire nor really the capacity to find a new agreement with the EU, even before the time constraints of Article 50 and the March 29,&nbsp;2019 deadline for the UK’s withdrawal are taken into account.

May’s way or the highway

Of course, this situation is partly by May’s design – holding off finalising the text until now left as little opportunity as possible for opponents to mobilise and plot, so she can sell it as “this deal or no deal”.

We’ll find out soon enough if this gambit can work. Already, it is clear that May has done little to try and placate the critics within her own party, instead of carving her own way through the negotiations and not opening up the process to contributions from colleagues.

It is in this context that politicians who campaigned for Leave, such as Gove or Andrea Leadsom, have chosen to remain in cabinet despite their clear doubts about the Withdrawal Agreement. Better, they argue, to be on the inside trying to shape May’s decisions, than on the outside, free to speak out but also excluded from the corridors of power.

Again, the success or failure of this will become clear before long, as the ratification process begins.

What we do know is that the Withdrawal Agreement is primarily a document about the past – about ending the UK’s membership of the EU. The accompanying political declaration says relatively little about the future relationship with the EU, which will be negotiated once the UK has left. For those who stay in cabinet, that might be the real moment for exerting their power and influence and changing the course of this process.

(Simon Usherwood is Reader in Politics, University of Surrey)

(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-heres-how-the-factions-want-to-rewrite-it-107115">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

 
&nbsp;

By Simon Usherwood After a week of high drama, even by the usual standards of Brexit, we find ourselves with something of a conundrum. On the one hand, no one in parliament seems to like the text of the Withdrawal Agreement that Theresa May has brought back from her negotiations.

By Simon Usherwood After a week of high drama, even by the usual standards of Brexit, we find ourselves with something of a conundrum. On the one hand, no one in parliament seems to like the text of the Withdrawal Agreement that Theresa May has brought back from her negotiations. On the other, the prime minister remains determined to ensure its ratification and implementation. The criticism has come from all directions, something that partly explains the current situation. For those who want to have a more emphatically clean break with the EU, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, the agreement contains much to cause concern. Most prominently, there are the backstop arrangements on Northern Ireland, which will come into effect if a new agreement cannot be signed by the UK and EU by the end of the transition period in December 2020. That backstop now involves maintaining both customs and regulatory alignment for the entire UK and it can only be removed by the mutual agreement of both parties – meaning the EU has a veto on ending it. But there are other elements, including the suggestion that this customs aspect of the backstop would form the basis of the future relationship, potentially restricting the capacity of the UK to conclude new trade deals with other countries, one of the flagship benefits that Brexiters have been selling in recent months. Emerging factions For those who want a close relationship with the EU, the Withdrawal Agreement looks problematic for its lack of commitment to close economic integration and its ambivalence about the status of EU citizens in the EU and UK citizens in the EU. The recent emergence of the “Norway for now” group, including the MPs Nick Boles and Michael Gove, further complicates matters. They are looking for language that allows for a temporary membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), despite the EU’s (and Norway’s) professed doubts about the possibility, given the disruption to the EEA it would cause. In short, everyone is seeing what they don’t like in the text and want it changed. Crucially, however, not one of these different opinions commands any more support in parliament than May’s own position. Each group is pulling in different directions, making it impossible to satisfy everyone by any change. Remember too that the EU has indicated that it will not be open to renegotiation around the edges of this text – so the only likely route to getting back around the table will be due to a much more major shift in UK priorities, such as a fundamentally different future relationship. As a result, May’s compromise has perhaps more stability than might be immediately apparent. The prime minister has neither the desire nor really the capacity to find a new agreement with the EU, even before the time constraints of Article 50 and the March 29, 2019 deadline for the UK’s withdrawal are taken into account. May’s way or the highway Of course, this situation is partly by May’s design – holding off finalising the text until now left as little opportunity as possible for opponents to mobilise and plot, so she can sell it as “this deal or no deal”. We’ll find out soon enough if this gambit can work. Already, it is clear that May has done little to try and placate the critics within her own party, instead of carving her own way through the negotiations and not opening up the process to contributions from colleagues. It is in this context that politicians who campaigned for Leave, such as Gove or Andrea Leadsom, have chosen to remain in cabinet despite their clear doubts about the Withdrawal Agreement. Better, they argue, to be on the inside trying to shape May’s decisions, than on the outside, free to speak out but also excluded from the corridors of power. Again, the success or failure of this will become clear before long, as the ratification process begins. What we do know is that the Withdrawal Agreement is primarily a document about the past – about ending the UK’s membership of the EU. The accompanying political declaration says relatively little about the future relationship with the EU, which will be negotiated once the UK has left. For those who stay in cabinet, that might be the real moment for exerting their power and influence and changing the course of this process. (Simon Usherwood is Reader in Politics, University of Surrey) (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Here's how the factions want to rewrite Theresa May's Brexit deal

British Prime Minister <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/getting-rid-of-me-risks-delaying-brexit-uk-pm-theresa-may-178041">Theresa May</a> will on Monday defend her draft Brexit deal to business leaders ahead of "intense negotiations" with Brussels in the coming week.

May will tell the Confederation of British Industry, the UK's main business lobby group, that she is confident of striking a deal at the European Council in the run-up to Sunday's summit to sign Britain's divorce papers.

"During that time I expect us to hammer out the full and final details of the framework that will underpin our future relationship," she will say, according to Downing Street.

"I am confident that we can strike a deal at the Council that I can take back to the House of Commons."

Also read: <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/uk-pm-may-says-leadership-challenge-threshold-not-met-as-far-as-i-know-178035">UK PM May says leadership challenge threshold not met 'as far as I know'</a>

The embattled premier, whose cabinet grudgingly approved her EU divorce draft last week, faces an uphill challenge to pass her deal through a sceptical parliament.&nbsp;

The Brussels negotiations will finalise a parallel political declaration setting out a road-map for post-Brexit negotiations on future EU-UK ties.

She will also tell the CBI gathering that her deal will deliver on the issues that matter to the British people.

"Control over our borders, by bringing an end to free movement, once and for all.

"Control of our money, so we can decide for ourselves how to spend it.

"Control of our laws, by ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the United Kingdom and ensuring that our laws are made and enforced here in this country."

The CBI said on Sunday that May's draft deal was not perfect but a compromise that "takes no deal off the table" and opens the path to frictionless trade in the future.

Addressing the issue of immigration, a concern for many businesses who fear they will face skills gaps after Brexit, May will promise to introduce "more streamlined application processes" that will "attract the brightest and the best from around the world".

"But the difference will be this: once we have left the EU, we will be fully in control of who comes here," she will say.

"It will no longer be the case that EU nationals, regardless of the skills or experience they have to offer, can jump the queue ahead of engineers from Sydney or software developers from Delhi." 
&nbsp;

British Prime Minister Theresa May will on Monday defend her draft Brexit deal to business leaders ahead of "intense negotiations" with Brussels in the coming week.

British Prime Minister Theresa May will on Monday defend her draft Brexit deal to business leaders ahead of "intense negotiations" with Brussels in the coming week. May will tell the Confederation of British Industry, the UK's main business lobby group, that she is confident of striking a deal at the European Council in the run-up to Sunday's summit to sign Britain's divorce papers. "During that time I expect us to hammer out the full and final details of the framework that will underpin our future relationship," she will say, according to Downing Street. "I am confident that we can strike a deal at the Council that I can take back to the House of Commons." Also read: UK PM May says leadership challenge threshold not met 'as far as I know' The embattled premier, whose cabinet grudgingly approved her EU divorce draft last week, faces an uphill challenge to pass her deal through a sceptical parliament. The Brussels negotiations will finalise a parallel political declaration setting out a road-map for post-Brexit negotiations on future EU-UK ties. She will also tell the CBI gathering that her deal will deliver on the issues that matter to the British people. "Control over our borders, by bringing an end to free movement, once and for all. "Control of our money, so we can decide for ourselves how to spend it. "Control of our laws, by ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the United Kingdom and ensuring that our laws are made and enforced here in this country." The CBI said on Sunday that May's draft deal was not perfect but a compromise that "takes no deal off the table" and opens the path to frictionless trade in the future. Addressing the issue of immigration, a concern for many businesses who fear they will face skills gaps after Brexit, May will promise to introduce "more streamlined application processes" that will "attract the brightest and the best from around the world". "But the difference will be this: once we have left the EU, we will be fully in control of who comes here," she will say. "It will no longer be the case that EU nationals, regardless of the skills or experience they have to offer, can jump the queue ahead of engineers from Sydney or software developers from Delhi."

British PM Theresa May to defend draft Brexit deal to business leaders

Prime Minister Theresa May vowed to fight for her draft divorce deal with the European Union on Thursday after the resignation of her Brexit secretary and other ministers put her strategy and her job in peril.

Just over 12 hours after May announced that her cabinet had agreed to the terms of the deal, Brexit minister Dominic Raab and work and pensions minister Esther McVey resigned.

Eurosceptics in May's Conservative Party said they had submitted letters calling for a vote of no confidence in her leadership.

May called a news conference at her Downing Street residence to underline her determination to stay the course.

Asked if she would contest any challenge to her position, she replied: "Am I going to see this through? Yes."

However, hostility from government and opposition lawmakers raised the risk that the deal would be rejected in parliament and that Britain could leave the EU on March 29 without a safety net.

That prospect pushed the pound down as much as 2 per cent to $1.2731, although it recovered slightly after May's statement.

The main stock index in Ireland, which is highly dependent on trade with Britain, plunged 3.8 per cent.

The German carmaker BMW, which produces its Mini model in Britain, said that, with the political situation so uncertain, it would continue to prepare for a 'no-deal' Brexit.

"BEST DEAL FOR BRITAIN"

Two junior ministers, two ministerial aides and the Conservatives' vice chairman joined Raab and McVey in quitting.

May said she understood their unhappiness, but added: "I believe with every fibre of my being that the course I have set out is the right one for our country and all our people ...

"I am going to do my job of getting the best deal for Britain."

By seeking to preserve the closest possible ties with the EU, May has upset her party's many advocates of a clean break, and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which props up her minority government.

Meanwhile, proponents of closer relations with the EU in her own party and the Labour opposition say the deal squanders the advantages of membership for little gain.

Both sides say it effectively cedes power to the EU without securing the promised benefits of greater autonomy.

"It is ... mathematically impossible to get this deal through the House of Commons. The stark reality is that it was dead on arrival," said Conservative Brexit-supporting lawmaker Mark Francois.

The deal will need the backing of about 320 of parliament's 650 MPs to pass.

The ultimate outcome remains uncertain. Scenarios include May's deal ultimately winning approval; May losing her job; Britain leaving the bloc with no agreement; or even another referendum.

"WORSE THAN ANTICIPATED"

Analysts from US bank Citi said Britain was now likely either to stay in the EU or leave without a deal.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of a Conservative eurosceptic group in parliament, said the draft was "worse than anticipated", and he had formally requested a vote of no confidence in May.

At least 14 Conservative lawmakers openly said they had submitted such letters, although others could have done so secretly. Forty-eight are needed to trigger a challenge.

But May told parliament: "The choice is clear. We can choose to leave with no deal, we can risk no Brexit at all, or we can choose to unite and support the best deal that can be negotiated."

Rees-Mogg told journalists the next prime minister should be someone who believed in Brexit.

But a May ally, former interior minister Amber Rudd, told Sky News: "The problem isn't the prime minister. The problem is the challenges she's got to deliver in trying to pull together this Brexit. She's the best person to do it."

The Labour Party said the government was "falling apart".

"NO ABILITY TO EXIT"

In parliament, lawmakers from all sides spent three hours mostly attacking the draft, agreed with the EU on Tuesday after more than a year of difficult negotiations.

"No democratic nation has ever signed up to be bound by such an extensive regime, imposed externally without any democratic control over the laws to be applied, nor the ability to decide to exit the arrangement," Raab said in his resignation letter.

Others said the so-called "Irish backstop", to be used if no better way can be found to avoid future checks on the border between the British province of Northern Ireland and EU-member Ireland, would tear Britain apart, leaving Northern Ireland all but inside the EU's single market.

It was this arrangement, which sees Britain and the EU establishing a single customs territory, but Northern Ireland aligned more closely with the EU, that spurred most criticism.

The DUP has threatened to pull its support from the minority government if the backstop means the province is treated differently from mainland Britain.

EU leaders are ready to meet on Nov. 25 to sign off on the divorce deal, or Withdrawal Agreement, but French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe summed up the uncertainty when he said events in London raised concerns about whether it would be ratified.

"We need to prepare ourselves for a no-deal Brexit," he said.

A group of EU states including France also raised objections to what has been agreed so far on fishing between the EU and UK after Brexit, diplomatic sources said.

Raab, 44, was named Brexit secretary in July after the resignation of his predecessor David Davis, who also quit in protest at May's strategy.

At the heart of Raab's criticism was the belief that the pursuit of a temporary customs union with the EU would be the starting point for talks on the future relationship with the bloc, "severely prejudicing" what Britain could achieve.

He said he could not support an indefinite backstop arrangement, and that May's plan threatened the integrity of the United Kingdom. 
&nbsp;

Prime Minister Theresa May vowed to fight for her draft divorce deal with the European Union on Thursday after the resignation of her Brexit secretary and other ministers put her strategy and her job in peril.

Prime Minister Theresa May vowed to fight for her draft divorce deal with the European Union on Thursday after the resignation of her Brexit secretary and other ministers put her strategy and her job in peril. Just over 12 hours after May announced that her cabinet had agreed to the terms of the deal, Brexit minister Dominic Raab and work and pensions minister Esther McVey resigned. Eurosceptics in May's Conservative Party said they had submitted letters calling for a vote of no confidence in her leadership. May called a news conference at her Downing Street residence to underline her determination to stay the course. Asked if she would contest any challenge to her position, she replied: "Am I going to see this through? Yes." However, hostility from government and opposition lawmakers raised the risk that the deal would be rejected in parliament and that Britain could leave the EU on March 29 without a safety net. That prospect pushed the pound down as much as 2 per cent to $1.2731, although it recovered slightly after May's statement. The main stock index in Ireland, which is highly dependent on trade with Britain, plunged 3.8 per cent. The German carmaker BMW, which produces its Mini model in Britain, said that, with the political situation so uncertain, it would continue to prepare for a 'no-deal' Brexit. "BEST DEAL FOR BRITAIN" Two junior ministers, two ministerial aides and the Conservatives' vice chairman joined Raab and McVey in quitting. May said she understood their unhappiness, but added: "I believe with every fibre of my being that the course I have set out is the right one for our country and all our people ... "I am going to do my job of getting the best deal for Britain." By seeking to preserve the closest possible ties with the EU, May has upset her party's many advocates of a clean break, and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which props up her minority government. Meanwhile, proponents of closer relations with the EU in her own party and the Labour opposition say the deal squanders the advantages of membership for little gain. Both sides say it effectively cedes power to the EU without securing the promised benefits of greater autonomy. "It is ... mathematically impossible to get this deal through the House of Commons. The stark reality is that it was dead on arrival," said Conservative Brexit-supporting lawmaker Mark Francois. The deal will need the backing of about 320 of parliament's 650 MPs to pass. The ultimate outcome remains uncertain. Scenarios include May's deal ultimately winning approval; May losing her job; Britain leaving the bloc with no agreement; or even another referendum. "WORSE THAN ANTICIPATED" Analysts from US bank Citi said Britain was now likely either to stay in the EU or leave without a deal. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of a Conservative eurosceptic group in parliament, said the draft was "worse than anticipated", and he had formally requested a vote of no confidence in May. At least 14 Conservative lawmakers openly said they had submitted such letters, although others could have done so secretly. Forty-eight are needed to trigger a challenge. But May told parliament: "The choice is clear. We can choose to leave with no deal, we can risk no Brexit at all, or we can choose to unite and support the best deal that can be negotiated." Rees-Mogg told journalists the next prime minister should be someone who believed in Brexit. But a May ally, former interior minister Amber Rudd, told Sky News: "The problem isn't the prime minister. The problem is the challenges she's got to deliver in trying to pull together this Brexit. She's the best person to do it." The Labour Party said the government was "falling apart". "NO ABILITY TO EXIT" In parliament, lawmakers from all sides spent three hours mostly attacking the draft, agreed with the EU on Tuesday after more than a year of difficult negotiations. "No democratic nation has ever signed up to be bound by such an extensive regime, imposed externally without any democratic control over the laws to be applied, nor the ability to decide to exit the arrangement," Raab said in his resignation letter. Others said the so-called "Irish backstop", to be used if no better way can be found to avoid future checks on the border between the British province of Northern Ireland and EU-member Ireland, would tear Britain apart, leaving Northern Ireland all but inside the EU's single market. It was this arrangement, which sees Britain and the EU establishing a single customs territory, but Northern Ireland aligned more closely with the EU, that spurred most criticism. The DUP has threatened to pull its support from the minority government if the backstop means the province is treated differently from mainland Britain. EU leaders are ready to meet on Nov. 25 to sign off on the divorce deal, or Withdrawal Agreement, but French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe summed up the uncertainty when he said events in London raised concerns about whether it would be ratified. "We need to prepare ourselves for a no-deal Brexit," he said. A group of EU states including France also raised objections to what has been agreed so far on fishing between the EU and UK after Brexit, diplomatic sources said. Raab, 44, was named Brexit secretary in July after the resignation of his predecessor David Davis, who also quit in protest at May's strategy. At the heart of Raab's criticism was the belief that the pursuit of a temporary customs union with the EU would be the starting point for talks on the future relationship with the bloc, "severely prejudicing" what Britain could achieve. He said he could not support an indefinite backstop arrangement, and that May's plan threatened the integrity of the United Kingdom.

'I'm going to see this through': UK PM May vows to fight for Brexit deal

By Andy Price

The contrast between what Theresa May said and the way she said&nbsp;was stark. In a subdued, almost reticent way, Theresa May told the nation on the steps of 10 Downing Street on November 14 that she “believed with her head and her heart” in the draft withdrawal agreement she had negotiated with the EU. The cabinet also backed it, she told us.

As subsequent cabinet resignations have proven, there was no such agreement. The whole address looks increasingly like it could be the first part of a long and drawn out resignation letter.

It was also the culmination of May’s ultimate folly: the crumbling of her absurd red lines. These red lines – leaving the customs union and the single market, ending the jurisdiction of the ECJ – were never compatible with not having a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, nor with a smooth transition in general. More painfully, these red lines were almost totally unnecessary. These issues were not on the 2016 referendum ballot. History will be a harsh judge as to why May and her team – stand up, Nick Timothy – chose to go down this path.

It has been clear for a long time that there is little appetite for these red lines especially in light of the potential impacts (a border in Ireland and disruption to trade to name two). But the root of the problem is this: from the moment she became PM, May played to a particular gallery: the Hard Brexiteers within her own party. It was to these people, first and foremost, who May spoke. Despite appeals to the hallowed “will of the people”, it was the will of the Brexiteers that May appealed to from late 2016 onwards.

But now that approach has crumbled on contact with the reality of UK and EU politics. Not only does this deal achieve the remarkable feat of being both the product of her red lines and an immediate transgression of them, May’s appearance before parliament the day after the Withdrawal Agreement was published showed one thing clearly: her deal has not only divided her cabinet but has no support in the Commons.

What next?

The question now, then, is what happens next, and there are two areas to focus on. First, what happens to the government and the Conservative Party. With rumours that the 1922 Committee has the requisite number of letters (48) to trigger a leadership challenge circulating, and with rumours that even May and her team now realise that “no Brexit” is an option, one thing is clear: business as usual is not possible.

This could mean an eventual vote of no-confidence, ousting May, and even another general election (though the latter is unlikely given that it would require two-thirds of the Commons to vote for it). It could also mean that May hangs on, and the deal is voted down, and the UK careers towards an exit from the EU with no deal. One thing is for sure: parliamentary gridlock and uncertainty is a new reality.

The second area to consider is what the Labour Party will now choose to do. Will Jeremy Corbyn make the same mistake as May has done, and elevate the immediate politics of his party – including the politics of which Labour constituencies voted Leave – above the national interest? Or will he do the one thing the UK has so badly lacked over the last two years: put all personal and party politics aside and face the reality of just how difficult the implementation of the result of the 2016 referendum was.

If the Labour Party was to choose the latter course, it has to address three key issues head-on. First, just how flawed the idea of the 2016 referendum was in the first place – the binary Leave/Remain ballot paper on such a complex issue was asking for trouble. Second, how problematic the Leave campaign itself was. On top of the most egregious lies – the bus, the purported ascension of Turkey – we now know that there are criminal charges to be answered around the Leave campaigns, official and unofficial.

Finally, it must deal with a much more deep-seated and intractable issue in UK politics: the framing of the EU in the political community of the UK. Ever since joining in 1973, both sides of the political divide have misrepresented what the EU actually is and the idea that the UK is exceptional and worthy of special treatment. Worse, when politically expedient, they have blamed the EU for various domestic woes.

This litany of delusion on the part of the UK political establishment needs to be taken on by a party or a leader who has no ideological axe to grind, has no gallery to play to, has only the desire and the ability to lead in the greatest sense of the idea of leadership – taking many millions of people with you on a journey they may disagree with in the name of the national interest.

It remains to be seen whether Corbyn or Labour is up to this challenge. But there is no doubt that no matter what happens in the Commons in the next few days, in the long term, the emergence of a political figure or movement that can do exactly this is what the UK most desperately needs.

(Andy Price is Head of Politics, Sheffield Hallam University)

(This article was first published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-is-dead-in-the-water-now-what-for-britain-107029">original article</a>.)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

By Andy Price The contrast between what Theresa May said and the way she said was stark. In a subdued, almost reticent way, Theresa May told the nation on the steps of 10 Downing Street on November 14 that she “believed with her head and her heart” in the draft withdrawal agreement she had negotiated with the EU.

By Andy Price The contrast between what Theresa May said and the way she said was stark. In a subdued, almost reticent way, Theresa May told the nation on the steps of 10 Downing Street on November 14 that she “believed with her head and her heart” in the draft withdrawal agreement she had negotiated with the EU. The cabinet also backed it, she told us. As subsequent cabinet resignations have proven, there was no such agreement. The whole address looks increasingly like it could be the first part of a long and drawn out resignation letter. It was also the culmination of May’s ultimate folly: the crumbling of her absurd red lines. These red lines – leaving the customs union and the single market, ending the jurisdiction of the ECJ – were never compatible with not having a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, nor with a smooth transition in general. More painfully, these red lines were almost totally unnecessary. These issues were not on the 2016 referendum ballot. History will be a harsh judge as to why May and her team – stand up, Nick Timothy – chose to go down this path. It has been clear for a long time that there is little appetite for these red lines especially in light of the potential impacts (a border in Ireland and disruption to trade to name two). But the root of the problem is this: from the moment she became PM, May played to a particular gallery: the Hard Brexiteers within her own party. It was to these people, first and foremost, who May spoke. Despite appeals to the hallowed “will of the people”, it was the will of the Brexiteers that May appealed to from late 2016 onwards. But now that approach has crumbled on contact with the reality of UK and EU politics. Not only does this deal achieve the remarkable feat of being both the product of her red lines and an immediate transgression of them, May’s appearance before parliament the day after the Withdrawal Agreement was published showed one thing clearly: her deal has not only divided her cabinet but has no support in the Commons. What next? The question now, then, is what happens next, and there are two areas to focus on. First, what happens to the government and the Conservative Party. With rumours that the 1922 Committee has the requisite number of letters (48) to trigger a leadership challenge circulating, and with rumours that even May and her team now realise that “no Brexit” is an option, one thing is clear: business as usual is not possible. This could mean an eventual vote of no-confidence, ousting May, and even another general election (though the latter is unlikely given that it would require two-thirds of the Commons to vote for it). It could also mean that May hangs on, and the deal is voted down, and the UK careers towards an exit from the EU with no deal. One thing is for sure: parliamentary gridlock and uncertainty is a new reality. The second area to consider is what the Labour Party will now choose to do. Will Jeremy Corbyn make the same mistake as May has done, and elevate the immediate politics of his party – including the politics of which Labour constituencies voted Leave – above the national interest? Or will he do the one thing the UK has so badly lacked over the last two years: put all personal and party politics aside and face the reality of just how difficult the implementation of the result of the 2016 referendum was. If the Labour Party was to choose the latter course, it has to address three key issues head-on. First, just how flawed the idea of the 2016 referendum was in the first place – the binary Leave/Remain ballot paper on such a complex issue was asking for trouble. Second, how problematic the Leave campaign itself was. On top of the most egregious lies – the bus, the purported ascension of Turkey – we now know that there are criminal charges to be answered around the Leave campaigns, official and unofficial. Finally, it must deal with a much more deep-seated and intractable issue in UK politics: the framing of the EU in the political community of the UK. Ever since joining in 1973, both sides of the political divide have misrepresented what the EU actually is and the idea that the UK is exceptional and worthy of special treatment. Worse, when politically expedient, they have blamed the EU for various domestic woes. This litany of delusion on the part of the UK political establishment needs to be taken on by a party or a leader who has no ideological axe to grind, has no gallery to play to, has only the desire and the ability to lead in the greatest sense of the idea of leadership – taking many millions of people with you on a journey they may disagree with in the name of the national interest. It remains to be seen whether Corbyn or Labour is up to this challenge. But there is no doubt that no matter what happens in the Commons in the next few days, in the long term, the emergence of a political figure or movement that can do exactly this is what the UK most desperately needs. (Andy Price is Head of Politics, Sheffield Hallam University) (This article was first published on The DNA. Read the original article.) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Theresa May’s Brexit deal is dead in the water – now what for Britain?

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/business-economy/asia-stocks-shaken-by-plunge-in-crude-oil-growth-worries-177178">Asian stocks</a> edged up on Thursday as a steep slide in crude oil prices which had chilled investor sentiment slowed, while the pound and euro were supported after British Prime Minister Theresa May gained cabinet support for a Brexit deal.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.15 per cent. The index had declined 0.4 per cent the previous day as plunging oil prices heightened anxiety about the outlook for broad demand and global growth.

Australian stocks rose 0.15 per cent while Japan's Nikkei shed 0.5 per cent.

All the same, stock market gains in Asia were limited after Wall Street extended their recent decline.

The S&amp;P 500 fell for a fifth straight day overnight as financial stocks were hit by fears that banking industry regulations would tighten once the Democratic Party takes control of the House of Representatives.

US equities were also pressured by lingering concerns that earnings growth might be peaking, intensifying trade tensions and a slowing global economy - factors that had triggered a rout in riskier assets in October.

"If US stocks are to bounce back, economic indicators will be key," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior forex strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

"Immediate focus will be on today's US retail sales data, which will provide a view of how private consumption -the main component of economic growth- is faring."

US retail sales for October will be released at 1330 GMT.

In currencies, the pound and euro kept gains made after British Prime Minister May's cabinet gave backing on her Brexit deal. May now has to gain the support of parliament, though it is unclear whether she has enough votes to clinch approval.

The pound was a shade higher at $1.12987 after peaking at $1.3072 on Wednesday, when it tacked on 0.1 per cent.

The euro was little changed at $1.1311 having advanced 0.2 per cent overnight.

The single currency's upside was limited by uncertainty on how European Union officials would react to Italy's latest fiscal proposal after they rejected a version of it last month for violation of certain EU rules.

Italy on Wednesday re-submitted its draft 2019 budget to the European Commission with the same growth and deficit assumptions as a draft rejected for breaking European Union rules, stepping up its showdown with the EU over its fiscal policy.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was 0.1 per cent lower at 97.213, nudged down by the firmer pound and euro.

US crude was a shade lower at $55.92 per barrel after gaining 1 per cent overnight, snapping a 12 day losing run on growing prospects that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers would cut output.&nbsp;

With global demand concerns also causing the steepest one-day loss for oil in more than three years on Tuesday, the market reversed course after Reuters reported that OPEC and its partners were discussing a proposal to cut output by up to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), more than officials had mentioned previously.

Asian stocks edged up on Thursday as a steep slide in crude oil prices which had chilled investor sentiment slowed, while the pound and euro were supported after British Prime Minister Theresa May gained cabinet support for a Brexit deal.

Asian stocks edged up on Thursday as a steep slide in crude oil prices which had chilled investor sentiment slowed, while the pound and euro were supported after British Prime Minister Theresa May gained cabinet support for a Brexit deal. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.15 per cent. The index had declined 0.4 per cent the previous day as plunging oil prices heightened anxiety about the outlook for broad demand and global growth. Australian stocks rose 0.15 per cent while Japan's Nikkei shed 0.5 per cent. All the same, stock market gains in Asia were limited after Wall Street extended their recent decline. The S&P 500 fell for a fifth straight day overnight as financial stocks were hit by fears that banking industry regulations would tighten once the Democratic Party takes control of the House of Representatives. US equities were also pressured by lingering concerns that earnings growth might be peaking, intensifying trade tensions and a slowing global economy - factors that had triggered a rout in riskier assets in October. "If US stocks are to bounce back, economic indicators will be key," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior forex strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo. "Immediate focus will be on today's US retail sales data, which will provide a view of how private consumption -the main component of economic growth- is faring." US retail sales for October will be released at 1330 GMT. In currencies, the pound and euro kept gains made after British Prime Minister May's cabinet gave backing on her Brexit deal. May now has to gain the support of parliament, though it is unclear whether she has enough votes to clinch approval. The pound was a shade higher at $1.12987 after peaking at $1.3072 on Wednesday, when it tacked on 0.1 per cent. The euro was little changed at $1.1311 having advanced 0.2 per cent overnight. The single currency's upside was limited by uncertainty on how European Union officials would react to Italy's latest fiscal proposal after they rejected a version of it last month for violation of certain EU rules. Italy on Wednesday re-submitted its draft 2019 budget to the European Commission with the same growth and deficit assumptions as a draft rejected for breaking European Union rules, stepping up its showdown with the EU over its fiscal policy. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was 0.1 per cent lower at 97.213, nudged down by the firmer pound and euro. US crude was a shade lower at $55.92 per barrel after gaining 1 per cent overnight, snapping a 12 day losing run on growing prospects that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers would cut output. With global demand concerns also causing the steepest one-day loss for oil in more than three years on Tuesday, the market reversed course after Reuters reported that OPEC and its partners were discussing a proposal to cut output by up to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), more than officials had mentioned previously.

Asia edges up as oil slide slows; pound, euro firm on Brexit optimism

The draft Brexit deal between Britain and the European Union was made possible by a breakthrough over the Irish border, but it could still prove the issue that unravels the agreement.

Both sides agreed last year to keep open Britain's land border with EU member Ireland no matter what happens but were stuck for months on how this could be achieved.

The end goal is to agree to a wide-ranging trade deal that removes the need for frontier checks on goods crossing between British Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

London hopes to secure this during a transition period planned to run from Brexit day on March 29, 2019, to December 31, 2020, in which Britain's relationship with the EU remains mostly the same.

But it has agreed that after then, a "backstop" arrangement would come into effect that keeps the border open unless and until the trade deal is struck.

Many commentators believe the backstop could become the basis of future EU-UK ties, which is why it has been subject to such intense scrutiny.

Why is this an issue?

After Britain leaves the European Union, the Irish border will become an external EU frontier.

Britain wants to leave the bloc's customs union and the single market, meaning checks would be required on people and products crossing from one territory to the other.

But both London and Brussels have pledged to avoid any physical infrastructure, or "hard border".

Many fear it could upset the delicate peace process that ended decades of violence between Protestant supporters of British rule over the province, and Irish Catholics nationalists, who believe in a united Ireland.

Residents and businesses on both sides of the now largely invisible 300-mile (500-kilometre) frontier also emphasise the importance of maintaining the free flow of trade and passenger traffic.

Is there a security risk?

British and Irish army checkpoints along the border were removed after the 1998 Good Friday peace accords, which largely ended three decades of conflict in Northern Ireland in which around 3,500 people were killed.

During "The Troubles" the border was a flashpoint for attacks and a lucrative smuggling route that helped fund paramilitaries.

Police have warned that any new infrastructure along the border could become a target for paramilitary activity by dissident militants who have not signed up to the peace deal.

What did the two sides propose?

The EU's proposed backstop envisaged keeping Northern Ireland in elements of the bloc's single market and customs union, meaning it would have to accept EU rules on quality standards and apply EU tariffs.

British Prime Minister Theresa May and the Northern Irish party that supports her government, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), said this was unacceptable.

They argued it would effectively carve off Northern Ireland from the rest of the country and create a border in the Irish Sea.

The British mainland accounts for 58 per cent of Northern Ireland's sales outside the province, nearly four times the value of exports to Ireland in 2016.

May proposed instead a temporary customs arrangement between the EU and the whole of Britain, including Northern Ireland.

What have they agreed?

The text has not yet been published but reports suggest both London and Brussels have given ground.

The EU has reportedly accepted the UK-wide customs backstop, but the deal includes provisions for Northern Ireland to stay more closely aligned with the bloc.

This could mean that some checks will be needed on goods transiting between Northern Ireland and the rest of Britain.

In return, Britain has agreed to a "level playing field" with the EU on state aid, competition, environmental and workers' rights, to ensure its businesses do not undercut those from the rest of the bloc.

The deal also includes some kind of review mechanism, although it reportedly falls short of Britain's early demands for either a time-limit on the arrangement or a unilateral right to leave it.

What has been the reaction?

European states will be scrutinising the draft text carefully for any signs that the backstop undermines the bloc's cherished single market.

In London, the DUP has warned it will not accept a situation where Northern Ireland follows trade rules set by the EU, nor one that places new barriers to mainland Britain.

Eurosceptic members of May's Conservative party also fear they will be trapped in a customs union with the EU for years after Brexit, unable to make their own trade rules.

&nbsp;

The draft Brexit deal between Britain and the European Union was made possible by a breakthrough over the Irish border, but it could still prove the issue that unravels the agreement.

The draft Brexit deal between Britain and the European Union was made possible by a breakthrough over the Irish border, but it could still prove the issue that unravels the agreement. Both sides agreed last year to keep open Britain's land border with EU member Ireland no matter what happens but were stuck for months on how this could be achieved. The end goal is to agree to a wide-ranging trade deal that removes the need for frontier checks on goods crossing between British Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. London hopes to secure this during a transition period planned to run from Brexit day on March 29, 2019, to December 31, 2020, in which Britain's relationship with the EU remains mostly the same. But it has agreed that after then, a "backstop" arrangement would come into effect that keeps the border open unless and until the trade deal is struck. Many commentators believe the backstop could become the basis of future EU-UK ties, which is why it has been subject to such intense scrutiny. Why is this an issue? After Britain leaves the European Union, the Irish border will become an external EU frontier. Britain wants to leave the bloc's customs union and the single market, meaning checks would be required on people and products crossing from one territory to the other. But both London and Brussels have pledged to avoid any physical infrastructure, or "hard border". Many fear it could upset the delicate peace process that ended decades of violence between Protestant supporters of British rule over the province, and Irish Catholics nationalists, who believe in a united Ireland. Residents and businesses on both sides of the now largely invisible 300-mile (500-kilometre) frontier also emphasise the importance of maintaining the free flow of trade and passenger traffic. Is there a security risk? British and Irish army checkpoints along the border were removed after the 1998 Good Friday peace accords, which largely ended three decades of conflict in Northern Ireland in which around 3,500 people were killed. During "The Troubles" the border was a flashpoint for attacks and a lucrative smuggling route that helped fund paramilitaries. Police have warned that any new infrastructure along the border could become a target for paramilitary activity by dissident militants who have not signed up to the peace deal. What did the two sides propose? The EU's proposed backstop envisaged keeping Northern Ireland in elements of the bloc's single market and customs union, meaning it would have to accept EU rules on quality standards and apply EU tariffs. British Prime Minister Theresa May and the Northern Irish party that supports her government, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), said this was unacceptable. They argued it would effectively carve off Northern Ireland from the rest of the country and create a border in the Irish Sea. The British mainland accounts for 58 per cent of Northern Ireland's sales outside the province, nearly four times the value of exports to Ireland in 2016. May proposed instead a temporary customs arrangement between the EU and the whole of Britain, including Northern Ireland. What have they agreed? The text has not yet been published but reports suggest both London and Brussels have given ground. The EU has reportedly accepted the UK-wide customs backstop, but the deal includes provisions for Northern Ireland to stay more closely aligned with the bloc. This could mean that some checks will be needed on goods transiting between Northern Ireland and the rest of Britain. In return, Britain has agreed to a "level playing field" with the EU on state aid, competition, environmental and workers' rights, to ensure its businesses do not undercut those from the rest of the bloc. The deal also includes some kind of review mechanism, although it reportedly falls short of Britain's early demands for either a time-limit on the arrangement or a unilateral right to leave it. What has been the reaction? European states will be scrutinising the draft text carefully for any signs that the backstop undermines the bloc's cherished single market. In London, the DUP has warned it will not accept a situation where Northern Ireland follows trade rules set by the EU, nor one that places new barriers to mainland Britain. Eurosceptic members of May's Conservative party also fear they will be trapped in a customs union with the EU for years after Brexit, unable to make their own trade rules.

Brexit breakthrough: The Irish issue explained

Britain struck a draft divorce deal with the European Union after more than a year of talks, thrusting Prime Minister Theresa May into a perilous battle over Brexit that could shape her country's prosperity for generations to come.

While Brussels choreographs the first withdrawal of a sovereign state from the EU, May, a far from secure leader hemmed in by opponents in government and her own Conservative party, must now try to get the deal approved by her cabinet and, in the toughest test of all, by parliament.

Brexiteers in May's party accused her of surrendering to the EU and said they would vote the deal down while the Northern Irish party which props up her minority government questioned whether she would be able to get parliamentary approval.

"These are momentous days and the decisions being taken will have long-lasting ramifications," said Arlene Foster, leader of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) which keeps the government in power.

"The prime minister must win the support of the cabinet and the House of Commons. Every individual vote will count."

The British cabinet will meet at 1400 GMT on Wednesday to consider the draft withdrawal agreement, a Downing Street spokesman said after Irish and British media were leaked details of the agreement on the text.

Sterling, which has seesawed since reaching $1.50 just before Britain's 2016 referendum that saw a 52-48 per cent margin for leaving the EU, surged on news of a deal but then erased some gains as opponents lined up to criticise May.

Brexit will pitch the world's fifth largest economy into the unknown and many fear it will serve to divide the West as it grapples with both the unconventional presidency of Donald Trump and growing assertiveness from Russia and China.

Supporters of Brexit say that while the divorce might bring some short-term instability, in the longer term it will allow the United Kingdom to thrive and also enable deeper EU integration without such a powerful reluctant member.

SELLING BREXIT

A senior EU official confirmed that a draft text had been agreed. EU leaders could meet on Nov. 25 for a summit to seal the Brexit deal if May's cabinet approves the text, diplomatic sources said.

The EU and Britain need an agreement to keep trade flowing between the world's biggest trading bloc and the United Kingdom, home to the biggest international financial centre.

But May, an initial opponent of Brexit who won the top job in the turmoil that followed the referendum, has struggled to untangle nearly 46 years of EU membership without damaging commerce or upsetting the lawmakers who will ultimately decide the fate of the divorce accord.

By seeking to leave the EU while preserving the closest possible ties, May's compromise plan has upset Brexiteers, pro-Europeans, Scottish nationalists, the Northern Irish party that props up her government, and some of her own ministers.

It is unclear when parliament might vote on a deal. To get the deal approved she needs the votes of about 320 lawmakers in the 650-seat parliament. She faces a deeply divided government, party, parliament and country.

BREXIT BETRAYAL?

Prominent Brexiteers such as Conservative lawmaker Jacob Rees-Mogg and former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said May had sold out the United Kingdom and that they would oppose it.

"It is a failure of the government's negotiating position, it is a failure to deliver on Brexit, and it is potentially dividing up the United Kingdom," Conservative lawmaker Jacob Rees-Mogg said.

The opposition Labour Party, which has said it would oppose any agreement that does not retain "the exact same" economic benefits that it now has with the EU, said it was unlikely the announced deal was right for Britain.

"It is vassal state stuff," Johnson said, adding that he would vote against such an unacceptable accord. "Chuck it out."

Johnson's brother, Jo, a pro-European, resigned from May's government on Friday, calling for another referendum to avoid her Brexit plans unleashing Britain’s greatest crisis since World War Two.

IRELAND

May formally began Britain’s divorce in March 2017, ushering in tortuous negotiations on everything from space exploration and fishing territories to selling complex financial products and the future of the land border on the island of Ireland.

As deadlines passed, officials such as Britain's Olly Robbins and the Commission's Sabine Weyand, a German, raced to get a deal in late night sessions at the European Commission's modernist Berlaymont building in Brussels.

With less than five months until Britain leaves the EU, the so-called Northern Irish backstop was the main sticking point.

The backstop is an insurance policy to avoid a return to controls on the border between the British province of Northern Ireland and EU member state Ireland if a future trading relationship is not agreed in time.

The British government supplied no immediate details on the Brexit deal text, which runs to hundreds of pages.

Three EU sources said the backstop would come in the form of a UK-wide customs arrangement, with specific provisions for Northern Ireland which go deeper on the issue of customs and alignment with the rules of the EU single market than for the rest of the United Kingdom.

It would include a review mechanism to bridge between EU demands that the insurance policy is permanently available and Britain's request to avoid being held in a customs alliance with the bloc perpetually.

The DUP has ruled out any deal that treats Northern Ireland differently.

Britain struck a draft divorce deal with the European Union after more than a year of talks, thrusting Prime Minister Theresa May into a perilous battle over Brexit that could shape her country's prosperity for generations to come.

Britain struck a draft divorce deal with the European Union after more than a year of talks, thrusting Prime Minister Theresa May into a perilous battle over Brexit that could shape her country's prosperity for generations to come. While Brussels choreographs the first withdrawal of a sovereign state from the EU, May, a far from secure leader hemmed in by opponents in government and her own Conservative party, must now try to get the deal approved by her cabinet and, in the toughest test of all, by parliament. Brexiteers in May's party accused her of surrendering to the EU and said they would vote the deal down while the Northern Irish party which props up her minority government questioned whether she would be able to get parliamentary approval. "These are momentous days and the decisions being taken will have long-lasting ramifications," said Arlene Foster, leader of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) which keeps the government in power. "The prime minister must win the support of the cabinet and the House of Commons. Every individual vote will count." The British cabinet will meet at 1400 GMT on Wednesday to consider the draft withdrawal agreement, a Downing Street spokesman said after Irish and British media were leaked details of the agreement on the text. Sterling, which has seesawed since reaching $1.50 just before Britain's 2016 referendum that saw a 52-48 per cent margin for leaving the EU, surged on news of a deal but then erased some gains as opponents lined up to criticise May. Brexit will pitch the world's fifth largest economy into the unknown and many fear it will serve to divide the West as it grapples with both the unconventional presidency of Donald Trump and growing assertiveness from Russia and China. Supporters of Brexit say that while the divorce might bring some short-term instability, in the longer term it will allow the United Kingdom to thrive and also enable deeper EU integration without such a powerful reluctant member. SELLING BREXIT A senior EU official confirmed that a draft text had been agreed. EU leaders could meet on Nov. 25 for a summit to seal the Brexit deal if May's cabinet approves the text, diplomatic sources said. The EU and Britain need an agreement to keep trade flowing between the world's biggest trading bloc and the United Kingdom, home to the biggest international financial centre. But May, an initial opponent of Brexit who won the top job in the turmoil that followed the referendum, has struggled to untangle nearly 46 years of EU membership without damaging commerce or upsetting the lawmakers who will ultimately decide the fate of the divorce accord. By seeking to leave the EU while preserving the closest possible ties, May's compromise plan has upset Brexiteers, pro-Europeans, Scottish nationalists, the Northern Irish party that props up her government, and some of her own ministers. It is unclear when parliament might vote on a deal. To get the deal approved she needs the votes of about 320 lawmakers in the 650-seat parliament. She faces a deeply divided government, party, parliament and country. BREXIT BETRAYAL? Prominent Brexiteers such as Conservative lawmaker Jacob Rees-Mogg and former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said May had sold out the United Kingdom and that they would oppose it. "It is a failure of the government's negotiating position, it is a failure to deliver on Brexit, and it is potentially dividing up the United Kingdom," Conservative lawmaker Jacob Rees-Mogg said. The opposition Labour Party, which has said it would oppose any agreement that does not retain "the exact same" economic benefits that it now has with the EU, said it was unlikely the announced deal was right for Britain. "It is vassal state stuff," Johnson said, adding that he would vote against such an unacceptable accord. "Chuck it out." Johnson's brother, Jo, a pro-European, resigned from May's government on Friday, calling for another referendum to avoid her Brexit plans unleashing Britain’s greatest crisis since World War Two. IRELAND May formally began Britain’s divorce in March 2017, ushering in tortuous negotiations on everything from space exploration and fishing territories to selling complex financial products and the future of the land border on the island of Ireland. As deadlines passed, officials such as Britain's Olly Robbins and the Commission's Sabine Weyand, a German, raced to get a deal in late night sessions at the European Commission's modernist Berlaymont building in Brussels. With less than five months until Britain leaves the EU, the so-called Northern Irish backstop was the main sticking point. The backstop is an insurance policy to avoid a return to controls on the border between the British province of Northern Ireland and EU member state Ireland if a future trading relationship is not agreed in time. The British government supplied no immediate details on the Brexit deal text, which runs to hundreds of pages. Three EU sources said the backstop would come in the form of a UK-wide customs arrangement, with specific provisions for Northern Ireland which go deeper on the issue of customs and alignment with the rules of the EU single market than for the rest of the United Kingdom. It would include a review mechanism to bridge between EU demands that the insurance policy is permanently available and Britain's request to avoid being held in a customs alliance with the bloc perpetually. The DUP has ruled out any deal that treats Northern Ireland differently.

Britain agrees Brexit divorce deal with EU, May's opponents vow to thwart it

Four British ministers who back remaining in the European Union are on the verge of quitting Theresa May's government over Brexit, the Sunday Times reported, as pressures built on the prime minister from all sides.&nbsp;

The newspaper also said that the European Union had rejected May's plan for an independent mechanism to oversee Britain's departure from any temporary customs arrangement it agrees. The newspaper sourced the development to British sources, and not sources in the EU team.

May is trying to hammer out the final details of the British divorce deal but the talks have become stuck over how the two sides can prevent a hard border from being required in Ireland.

Britain has proposed a UK-wide temporary customs arrangement with the EU to resolve the issue but Brexiteers in her party want London to have the final say on when that arrangement would end, to prevent it from being tied indefinitely to the bloc.&nbsp;

A senior cabinet minister was quoted in the paper as saying: "This is the moment she has to face down Brussels and make it clear to them that they need to compromise, or we will leave without a deal."

An EU diplomat told Reuters earlier on Saturday that they were cautiously hopeful that an EU summit could happen in November to endorse the deal but that the volatile situation in Britain made it very difficult to predict.&nbsp;

Other EU diplomats said several issues remained unresolved.&nbsp;

May is expected to meet with her cabinet this week to set out her plans for the divorce deal. She was dealt a blow on Friday when junior minister Jo Johnston, who voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum, quit over her plan.

To add to the pressure, a leading member of a group of Brexiteer lawmakers in parliament joined with the Brexit spokesman for the small Northern Irish party that props up May`s party in government to warn that they could not vote for the deal as it currently stands.

Steve Baker, a former junior Brexit minister who resigned over May's so-called Chequers proposals on Brexit, and Sammy Wilson of the DUP wrote in the

Sunday Telegraph newspaper that they could not back a deal if it treated Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the country.&nbsp;

May had been expected to hold a vote in parliament on her deal before the end of the year.&nbsp;

A spokeswoman for May`s Downing Street office said the talks were going down to the wire. "The prime minister has always said these negotiations are tough and toughest in the final stages.&nbsp;

"The prime minister has told colleagues this week we should aim to conclude the withdrawal agreement as soon as possible but we will not do that at any cost." (Reporting by Kate Holton; editing by David Stamp and Marguerita Choy) 
&nbsp;

Four British ministers who back remaining in the European Union are on the verge of quitting Theresa May's government over Brexit, the Sunday Times reported, as pressures built on the prime minister from all sides.

Four British ministers who back remaining in the European Union are on the verge of quitting Theresa May's government over Brexit, the Sunday Times reported, as pressures built on the prime minister from all sides. The newspaper also said that the European Union had rejected May's plan for an independent mechanism to oversee Britain's departure from any temporary customs arrangement it agrees. The newspaper sourced the development to British sources, and not sources in the EU team. May is trying to hammer out the final details of the British divorce deal but the talks have become stuck over how the two sides can prevent a hard border from being required in Ireland. Britain has proposed a UK-wide temporary customs arrangement with the EU to resolve the issue but Brexiteers in her party want London to have the final say on when that arrangement would end, to prevent it from being tied indefinitely to the bloc. A senior cabinet minister was quoted in the paper as saying: "This is the moment she has to face down Brussels and make it clear to them that they need to compromise, or we will leave without a deal." An EU diplomat told Reuters earlier on Saturday that they were cautiously hopeful that an EU summit could happen in November to endorse the deal but that the volatile situation in Britain made it very difficult to predict. Other EU diplomats said several issues remained unresolved. May is expected to meet with her cabinet this week to set out her plans for the divorce deal. She was dealt a blow on Friday when junior minister Jo Johnston, who voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum, quit over her plan. To add to the pressure, a leading member of a group of Brexiteer lawmakers in parliament joined with the Brexit spokesman for the small Northern Irish party that props up May`s party in government to warn that they could not vote for the deal as it currently stands. Steve Baker, a former junior Brexit minister who resigned over May's so-called Chequers proposals on Brexit, and Sammy Wilson of the DUP wrote in the Sunday Telegraph newspaper that they could not back a deal if it treated Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the country. May had been expected to hold a vote in parliament on her deal before the end of the year. A spokeswoman for May`s Downing Street office said the talks were going down to the wire. "The prime minister has always said these negotiations are tough and toughest in the final stages. "The prime minister has told colleagues this week we should aim to conclude the withdrawal agreement as soon as possible but we will not do that at any cost." (Reporting by Kate Holton; editing by David Stamp and Marguerita Choy)

Four UK ministers on verge of quitting Theresa May's government over Brexit

British Prime Minister Theresa May promised her ministers Tuesday she would not strike a Brexit deal with the EU "at any cost" after opposition over a mooted plan to resolve the deadlock over Northern Ireland.

Negotiations have stepped up with Brussels as London seeks a divorce agreement within weeks, to allow time for it to be passed by parliament before Brexit day on March 29, 2019.

But British eurosceptics fear May is planning to break the impasse by giving too much ground on an arrangement to avoid border checks between British Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland.

The Northern Irish party on whom May depends for her majority in the House of Commons warned that unless the EU offered further concessions, Britain could leave with no deal at all.

At a weekly cabinet meeting, May told ministers she expected an agreement and wanted it as soon as possible, but it would "not be done at any cost", according to her spokesman.

"We will need to be satisfied in the negotiations that we have achieved the best deal that we possibly can for the UK," he added.

Talks with the EU are stuck on the details of a "backstop" arrangement to avoid checks on goods crossing the Irish border until a new trade deal can be signed.

London suggests Britain could temporarily stay aligned with &nbsp;the bloc's trade rules but wants to reserve the right to exit the arrangement.

There were signs of a possible compromise in a phone call on Monday between May and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, where he said he would consider a "review mechanism" for the backstop.

But he rejected the idea Britain could unilaterally end the arrangement, something Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and other eurosceptics in her Conservative party want.

Jeffrey Donaldson, an MP from Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which props up May's government, said Dublin's refusal to budge could scupper a deal.

"Looks like we're heading for no deal," he wrote on Twitter, adding: "Can't understand why Irish government seems so intent on this course."

The Sun newspaper reported Tuesday that Raab and Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt would use the cabinet meeting to warn that any deal with the EU that traps Britain within the bloc's orbit would never be approved by MPs.

May's spokesman said ministers agreed on the need for an "effective mechanism" within the backstop to ensure "that the UK cannot be held in the arrangement indefinitely".

Work is continuing on this, he said, adding: "Don't be under any illusions that there remains a significant amount of work to do."

Several government sources have indicated they would like to see a deal before the end of November, although one official admitted Tuesday this was now a "stretch".

British Prime Minister Theresa May promised her ministers Tuesday she would not strike a Brexit deal with the EU "at any cost" after opposition over a mooted plan to resolve the deadlock over Northern Ireland.

British Prime Minister Theresa May promised her ministers Tuesday she would not strike a Brexit deal with the EU "at any cost" after opposition over a mooted plan to resolve the deadlock over Northern Ireland. Negotiations have stepped up with Brussels as London seeks a divorce agreement within weeks, to allow time for it to be passed by parliament before Brexit day on March 29, 2019. But British eurosceptics fear May is planning to break the impasse by giving too much ground on an arrangement to avoid border checks between British Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland. The Northern Irish party on whom May depends for her majority in the House of Commons warned that unless the EU offered further concessions, Britain could leave with no deal at all. At a weekly cabinet meeting, May told ministers she expected an agreement and wanted it as soon as possible, but it would "not be done at any cost", according to her spokesman. "We will need to be satisfied in the negotiations that we have achieved the best deal that we possibly can for the UK," he added. Talks with the EU are stuck on the details of a "backstop" arrangement to avoid checks on goods crossing the Irish border until a new trade deal can be signed. London suggests Britain could temporarily stay aligned with the bloc's trade rules but wants to reserve the right to exit the arrangement. There were signs of a possible compromise in a phone call on Monday between May and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, where he said he would consider a "review mechanism" for the backstop. But he rejected the idea Britain could unilaterally end the arrangement, something Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and other eurosceptics in her Conservative party want. Jeffrey Donaldson, an MP from Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which props up May's government, said Dublin's refusal to budge could scupper a deal. "Looks like we're heading for no deal," he wrote on Twitter, adding: "Can't understand why Irish government seems so intent on this course." The Sun newspaper reported Tuesday that Raab and Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt would use the cabinet meeting to warn that any deal with the EU that traps Britain within the bloc's orbit would never be approved by MPs. May's spokesman said ministers agreed on the need for an "effective mechanism" within the backstop to ensure "that the UK cannot be held in the arrangement indefinitely". Work is continuing on this, he said, adding: "Don't be under any illusions that there remains a significant amount of work to do." Several government sources have indicated they would like to see a deal before the end of November, although one official admitted Tuesday this was now a "stretch".

United Kingdom's Theresa May says will not agree Brexit deal 'at any cost'

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier denied Thursday a report claiming that London and Brussels had reached a preliminary agreement covering financial services and data.

The Times newspaper said a deal had been struck that would see UK financial services companies retain access to European Union markets after Britain leaves the bloc in March.

Such a deal would guarantee British companies access to EU markets as long as domestic regulations remained broadly aligned with those set by Brussels -- an arrangement called "equivalence".

Barnier called the report "misleading", while British Prime Minister Theresa May's spokesman played it down as "speculation".

"Misleading press articles today on Brexit &amp; financial services," Barnier wrote on Twitter.

"Reminder: EU may grant and withdraw equivalence in some financial services autonomously. As with other 3rd countries, EU ready to have close regulatory dialogue with UK in full respect for autonomy of both parties."

British government officials were more positive.

May's spokesman called The Times report "speculation", but added: "While we continue to make good progress, agreeing new arrangements for financial services negotiations are ongoing."

The pound started to rally following the report's publication.

It extended those gains on a signal from the central bank that it stood ready to raise rates in response to early signs of the economy overheating.

The pound stood at a weekly high of about $1.2921 around 1230 GMT. The day's rise of 1.2 per cent was the highest since February, according to Bloomberg data.

British optimism

Financial services are a major part of Britain's economy and access to European markets has been a key concern in the Brexit negotiations.

Currently, the EU would be able to withdraw market access with a month's notice if it decides that a partner country no longer has equivalent financial services regulations.

The report in The Times suggested that neither London nor Brussels would be able to declare unilaterally that regulations had fallen out of equivalence and block access to their markets without first going through independent arbitration and a notice period "significantly longer" than one month.

Britain's Brexit minister Dominic Raab believes a divorce deal with the Brussels could be struck by November 21, it emerged Wednesday, prompting EU leaders to warn this would require a breakthrough within days.

In a letter to a parliamentary scrutiny panel, he wrote: "I would be happy to give evidence to the committee when a deal is finalised, and currently expect 21 November to be suitable."

But Raab's ministry later admitted there was "no set date for the negotiations to conclude".

Most of the divorce deal with Brussels is agreed but talks remain stuck on how to avoid new checks on Britain's land border with EU member Ireland after it leaves the bloc's single market and customs union.

Analysts said reaching a preliminary services agreement with the EU could ease May's job of convincing lawmakers to approve any Ireland border deal.

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier denied Thursday a report claiming that London and Brussels had reached a preliminary agreement covering financial services and data.

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier denied Thursday a report claiming that London and Brussels had reached a preliminary agreement covering financial services and data. The Times newspaper said a deal had been struck that would see UK financial services companies retain access to European Union markets after Britain leaves the bloc in March. Such a deal would guarantee British companies access to EU markets as long as domestic regulations remained broadly aligned with those set by Brussels -- an arrangement called "equivalence". Barnier called the report "misleading", while British Prime Minister Theresa May's spokesman played it down as "speculation". "Misleading press articles today on Brexit & financial services," Barnier wrote on Twitter. "Reminder: EU may grant and withdraw equivalence in some financial services autonomously. As with other 3rd countries, EU ready to have close regulatory dialogue with UK in full respect for autonomy of both parties." British government officials were more positive. May's spokesman called The Times report "speculation", but added: "While we continue to make good progress, agreeing new arrangements for financial services negotiations are ongoing." The pound started to rally following the report's publication. It extended those gains on a signal from the central bank that it stood ready to raise rates in response to early signs of the economy overheating. The pound stood at a weekly high of about $1.2921 around 1230 GMT. The day's rise of 1.2 per cent was the highest since February, according to Bloomberg data. British optimism Financial services are a major part of Britain's economy and access to European markets has been a key concern in the Brexit negotiations. Currently, the EU would be able to withdraw market access with a month's notice if it decides that a partner country no longer has equivalent financial services regulations. The report in The Times suggested that neither London nor Brussels would be able to declare unilaterally that regulations had fallen out of equivalence and block access to their markets without first going through independent arbitration and a notice period "significantly longer" than one month. Britain's Brexit minister Dominic Raab believes a divorce deal with the Brussels could be struck by November 21, it emerged Wednesday, prompting EU leaders to warn this would require a breakthrough within days. In a letter to a parliamentary scrutiny panel, he wrote: "I would be happy to give evidence to the committee when a deal is finalised, and currently expect 21 November to be suitable." But Raab's ministry later admitted there was "no set date for the negotiations to conclude". Most of the divorce deal with Brussels is agreed but talks remain stuck on how to avoid new checks on Britain's land border with EU member Ireland after it leaves the bloc's single market and customs union. Analysts said reaching a preliminary services agreement with the EU could ease May's job of convincing lawmakers to approve any Ireland border deal.

Barnier denies Brexit deal reached on financial services

Britain hopes to finalise a deal on its withdrawal from the European Union by November 21, the Brexit minister told MPs in a letter published on Wednesday.

"I would be happy to give evidence to the committee when a deal is finalised, and currently expect 21 November to be suitable," Dominic Raab wrote to the House of Commons Brexit scrutiny committee.

The letter is dated October 24, but was only made public on Wednesday.

Both Raab and Oliver Robbins, Prime Minister Theresa May's chief Brexit advisor, have been invited to address the committee on November 21.

Most of the divorce deal with Brussels is agreed but talks remain stuck on how to avoid new checks on Britain's land border with EU member Ireland after it leaves the bloc's single market and customs union.

Raab will visit the UK province of Northern Ireland on Friday on a "fact-finding trip", which will include meetings with local businesses and politicians, an official in his ministry told AFP.

EU leaders had mooted a special summit in mid-November to seal the Brexit deal, but they warned earlier this month that this would not happen without more progress on the Irish issue.

Raab wrote: "The end is now firmly in sight and, while obstacles remain, it cannot be beyond us to navigate them."

Separately, his predecessor David Davis, who quit over the government's approach to Brexit in July, has said the final deal will likely pass when it comes to a vote in the House of Commons.

Davis is among a large minority of May's Conservative MPs who strongly oppose her strategy, raising fears the deal will be rejected.

"The fear of no deal, I think.... That will win and there will be a deal," Davis told an event on Tuesday evening, according to Sky News television.

Britain hopes to finalise a deal on its withdrawal from the European Union by November 21, the Brexit minister told MPs in a letter published on Wednesday. "I would be happy to give evidence to the committee when a deal is finalised, and currently expect 21 November to be suitable," Dominic Raab wrote to the House of Commons Brexit scrutiny committee.

Britain hopes to finalise a deal on its withdrawal from the European Union by November 21, the Brexit minister told MPs in a letter published on Wednesday. "I would be happy to give evidence to the committee when a deal is finalised, and currently expect 21 November to be suitable," Dominic Raab wrote to the House of Commons Brexit scrutiny committee. The letter is dated October 24, but was only made public on Wednesday. Both Raab and Oliver Robbins, Prime Minister Theresa May's chief Brexit advisor, have been invited to address the committee on November 21. Most of the divorce deal with Brussels is agreed but talks remain stuck on how to avoid new checks on Britain's land border with EU member Ireland after it leaves the bloc's single market and customs union. Raab will visit the UK province of Northern Ireland on Friday on a "fact-finding trip", which will include meetings with local businesses and politicians, an official in his ministry told AFP. EU leaders had mooted a special summit in mid-November to seal the Brexit deal, but they warned earlier this month that this would not happen without more progress on the Irish issue. Raab wrote: "The end is now firmly in sight and, while obstacles remain, it cannot be beyond us to navigate them." Separately, his predecessor David Davis, who quit over the government's approach to Brexit in July, has said the final deal will likely pass when it comes to a vote in the House of Commons. Davis is among a large minority of May's Conservative MPs who strongly oppose her strategy, raising fears the deal will be rejected. "The fear of no deal, I think.... That will win and there will be a deal," Davis told an event on Tuesday evening, according to Sky News television.

Britain eyes Brexit deal by November 21: Minister Dominic Raab

Twenty-seven countries have raised concerns about Britain's future trading terms at the World Trade Organisation, trade sources in Geneva told AFP on Friday, in a move that could delay post-Brexit free trade deals.

The WTO in Geneva -- which has 164 countries as members -- is where countries negotiate the rules of international trade and settle disputes.

Although Britain is a member outright, for decades the EU has represented the UK at the WTO.

But Brexit means the UK has to separate its trade rules from the EU if it wants to act with more independence.

As March approaches -- Britain's Brexit leave date -- the UK has pushed to essentially replicate the WTO rules it currently follows as an EU member, with some technical changes.

But trade sources have told AFP that 27 countries have "raised concerns" about the plans, particularly regarding agriculture tariffs and quotas, as well as other issues.&nbsp;

The move has been described as a "welcome to reality" moment for the UK, by analysts.

"All these countries, they are all saying we would like something, we want a bigger share of the pie," David Henig, Director of the UK Trade Policy Project, told AFP.

"While the UK is in these (WTO) negotiations, that can potentially delay bilateral deals with other countries," he said.

A delay to new free trade deals post-Brexit -- touted as a key benefit of leaving the EU by Brexit supporters -- could have economic consequences for the UK.

But it is still unclear whether Britain's proposed Brexit deal will even leave the UK with much power to negotiate free trade deals.

Until a Brexit deal is completed, it is impossible to know what terms of trade will be negotiated at the WTO.

Many of the concerns raised by other countries at the WTO could even fall away if the UK stays part of the EU's custom's union for example, trade sources said.

- National interests - 
The WTO said the situation is without precedent but that while discussions take place, trade will continue as normal.

"The type of conversation that will take place very much depends on the outcome of the UK-EU bilateral negotiation," the WTO said in a statement.

A separate issue is whether British businesses will continue to get equal access to bid for government contracts in other WTO countries, known as government procurement agreements.&nbsp;

"The other countries might decide to keep treating British businesses the same way, but they don’t have to," warned Doctor Lorand Bartels, a teacher of WTO law at the University of Cambridge.

If the UK does not reach a deal with other WTO countries then, "British businesses would not be protected when bidding for government contracts," Dr Bartels said.

12 percent of GDP is the amount spent on average in OECD countries on public procurement, according to the organisation.

According to market analysis site MLex, Russia is one of the countries to have objected to the British proposals, saying they do not meet obligations "under several basic WTO provisions”.

Other countries have made it clear that they think the plans will put them at a disadvantage, the site said.

The WTO played down the significance, saying countries had simply reserved their right "to sit down and discuss with the British" negotiations in the coming months.

The developments are a reminder of the huge complexities Britain faces to finalise deals while countries promote their own national interests.

"There is a lot of negotiating to go ahead," Henig said.

Twenty-seven countries have raised concerns about Britain's future trading terms at the World Trade Organisation, trade sources in Geneva told AFP on Friday, in a move that could delay post-Brexit free trade deals.

Twenty-seven countries have raised concerns about Britain's future trading terms at the World Trade Organisation, trade sources in Geneva told AFP on Friday, in a move that could delay post-Brexit free trade deals. The WTO in Geneva -- which has 164 countries as members -- is where countries negotiate the rules of international trade and settle disputes. Although Britain is a member outright, for decades the EU has represented the UK at the WTO. But Brexit means the UK has to separate its trade rules from the EU if it wants to act with more independence. As March approaches -- Britain's Brexit leave date -- the UK has pushed to essentially replicate the WTO rules it currently follows as an EU member, with some technical changes. But trade sources have told AFP that 27 countries have "raised concerns" about the plans, particularly regarding agriculture tariffs and quotas, as well as other issues. The move has been described as a "welcome to reality" moment for the UK, by analysts. "All these countries, they are all saying we would like something, we want a bigger share of the pie," David Henig, Director of the UK Trade Policy Project, told AFP. "While the UK is in these (WTO) negotiations, that can potentially delay bilateral deals with other countries," he said. A delay to new free trade deals post-Brexit -- touted as a key benefit of leaving the EU by Brexit supporters -- could have economic consequences for the UK. But it is still unclear whether Britain's proposed Brexit deal will even leave the UK with much power to negotiate free trade deals. Until a Brexit deal is completed, it is impossible to know what terms of trade will be negotiated at the WTO. Many of the concerns raised by other countries at the WTO could even fall away if the UK stays part of the EU's custom's union for example, trade sources said. - National interests - The WTO said the situation is without precedent but that while discussions take place, trade will continue as normal. "The type of conversation that will take place very much depends on the outcome of the UK-EU bilateral negotiation," the WTO said in a statement. A separate issue is whether British businesses will continue to get equal access to bid for government contracts in other WTO countries, known as government procurement agreements. "The other countries might decide to keep treating British businesses the same way, but they don’t have to," warned Doctor Lorand Bartels, a teacher of WTO law at the University of Cambridge. If the UK does not reach a deal with other WTO countries then, "British businesses would not be protected when bidding for government contracts," Dr Bartels said. 12 percent of GDP is the amount spent on average in OECD countries on public procurement, according to the organisation. According to market analysis site MLex, Russia is one of the countries to have objected to the British proposals, saying they do not meet obligations "under several basic WTO provisions”. Other countries have made it clear that they think the plans will put them at a disadvantage, the site said. The WTO played down the significance, saying countries had simply reserved their right "to sit down and discuss with the British" negotiations in the coming months. The developments are a reminder of the huge complexities Britain faces to finalise deals while countries promote their own national interests. "There is a lot of negotiating to go ahead," Henig said.

27 countries raise concerns at WTO over Britain's post-Brexit trade plans

By Nikos Skoutaris

British Prime Minister Theresa May has insisted that the result of the Brexit referendum “was a vote to take control of our borders”. In order to do that, the UK will be leaving both the EU single market and the customs union. At the same time, May’s government has committed to protecting the Good Friday Agreement by not accepting any physical infrastructure at the Irish land border. So, the UK and the EU have been facing an almost unsolvable riddle. How can they keep open a land border between an EU member state and a country that is outside the single market and the customs union?

The text of the political agreement reached between the UK and EU in December 2017 included a formula to square the circle. It stated that the aim of future negotiations would be to address the challenge of the Irish border through the overall EU-UK relationship. If the final withdrawal agreement doesn’t provide a frictionless invisible border, then “specific solutions” will apply to Northern Ireland. But if the UK and the EU cannot agree on those specific solutions, then Northern Ireland or the UK as a whole will remain aligned to the single market and the customs union.

Since then, the UK and EU negotiators have struggled to find a legally operative text that would both fulfil the commitment to keep the land border open and respect the political sensitivities of all the interested parties. Below are the proposals on the table.

The EU backstop

The first attempt to legally codify the December 2017 commitment came in the Draft Withdrawal Treaty published by the European Union in February 2018. This proposed setting up a common regulatory area comprising the European Union and Northern Ireland. The region would, therefore, remain in the EU customs territory. May vehemently rejected the plan noting that “no UK prime minister could agree to it”.

The main problem with the suggested arrangement is that it will create a customs border in the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This is why EU negotiator Michel Barnier tried to de-dramatise the proposed solution by insisting that the whole arrangement creates neither a land nor a sea border. It is merely “a set of technical checks and controls”.

Arlene Foster, leader of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, insists that “the entirety of the UK should be leaving the single market and the customs union”. She has threatened to withdraw the parliamentary support on which May’s government relies if Northern Ireland is treated differently to the UK after Brexit.

The UK backstop 
 
In June 2017, the UK government published its own counter-proposal for a backstop arrangement. The biggest difference between the two proposals is that the UK’s applies to the whole country and not just to Northern Ireland. The entire territory of the UK and the Channel Islands would remain part of the customs territory of the European Union, even after the end of the transition period in December 2020.

However, it is not entirely clear whether under this solution there would also be regulatory alignment between the UK and the EU, keeping the UK effectively within a significant part of the single market. Be that as it may, such an arrangement respects the DUP’s red lines but angers Eurosceptic MPs who do not welcome the prospect of the UK being aligned with EU rules in the long term. This group could vote against such a deal when it reaches parliament.

A backstop to a backstop

More problematic, from an EU point of view, is that May insists that the backstop should be a “temporary solution” because the UK does not want to be “stuck permanently in single customs territory, unable to do meaningful trade deals”. Given that the UK insists on legally entrenching the deadline of the backstop option, the EU is asking for a “backstop to a backstop” specific to Northern Ireland that will not be time-limited.

Endgame

The negotiations for the withdrawal of the UK from the EU are reaching their final stages and it is difficult to see how a solution to the Irish border conundrum can be found without some compromise. The solemn commitment that the UK has undertaken to protect the Good Friday Agreement and to keep the Irish land border open raises a significant dilemma. Either it has to opt for a much closer relationship with the EU than the one described in its red lines or it has to accept some differentiation for Northern Ireland.

(Nikos Skoutaris is Senior Lecturer in European Union Law, School of Law, University of East Anglia)

(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-backstop-refresh-why-the-uk-and-eu-cant-agree-on-northern-ireland-105080">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

By Nikos Skoutaris British Prime Minister Theresa May has insisted that the result of the Brexit referendum “was a vote to take control of our borders”. In order to do that, the UK will be leaving both the EU single market and the customs union.

By Nikos Skoutaris British Prime Minister Theresa May has insisted that the result of the Brexit referendum “was a vote to take control of our borders”. In order to do that, the UK will be leaving both the EU single market and the customs union. At the same time, May’s government has committed to protecting the Good Friday Agreement by not accepting any physical infrastructure at the Irish land border. So, the UK and the EU have been facing an almost unsolvable riddle. How can they keep open a land border between an EU member state and a country that is outside the single market and the customs union? The text of the political agreement reached between the UK and EU in December 2017 included a formula to square the circle. It stated that the aim of future negotiations would be to address the challenge of the Irish border through the overall EU-UK relationship. If the final withdrawal agreement doesn’t provide a frictionless invisible border, then “specific solutions” will apply to Northern Ireland. But if the UK and the EU cannot agree on those specific solutions, then Northern Ireland or the UK as a whole will remain aligned to the single market and the customs union. Since then, the UK and EU negotiators have struggled to find a legally operative text that would both fulfil the commitment to keep the land border open and respect the political sensitivities of all the interested parties. Below are the proposals on the table. The EU backstop The first attempt to legally codify the December 2017 commitment came in the Draft Withdrawal Treaty published by the European Union in February 2018. This proposed setting up a common regulatory area comprising the European Union and Northern Ireland. The region would, therefore, remain in the EU customs territory. May vehemently rejected the plan noting that “no UK prime minister could agree to it”. The main problem with the suggested arrangement is that it will create a customs border in the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This is why EU negotiator Michel Barnier tried to de-dramatise the proposed solution by insisting that the whole arrangement creates neither a land nor a sea border. It is merely “a set of technical checks and controls”. Arlene Foster, leader of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, insists that “the entirety of the UK should be leaving the single market and the customs union”. She has threatened to withdraw the parliamentary support on which May’s government relies if Northern Ireland is treated differently to the UK after Brexit. The UK backstop In June 2017, the UK government published its own counter-proposal for a backstop arrangement. The biggest difference between the two proposals is that the UK’s applies to the whole country and not just to Northern Ireland. The entire territory of the UK and the Channel Islands would remain part of the customs territory of the European Union, even after the end of the transition period in December 2020. However, it is not entirely clear whether under this solution there would also be regulatory alignment between the UK and the EU, keeping the UK effectively within a significant part of the single market. Be that as it may, such an arrangement respects the DUP’s red lines but angers Eurosceptic MPs who do not welcome the prospect of the UK being aligned with EU rules in the long term. This group could vote against such a deal when it reaches parliament. A backstop to a backstop More problematic, from an EU point of view, is that May insists that the backstop should be a “temporary solution” because the UK does not want to be “stuck permanently in single customs territory, unable to do meaningful trade deals”. Given that the UK insists on legally entrenching the deadline of the backstop option, the EU is asking for a “backstop to a backstop” specific to Northern Ireland that will not be time-limited. Endgame The negotiations for the withdrawal of the UK from the EU are reaching their final stages and it is difficult to see how a solution to the Irish border conundrum can be found without some compromise. The solemn commitment that the UK has undertaken to protect the Good Friday Agreement and to keep the Irish land border open raises a significant dilemma. Either it has to opt for a much closer relationship with the EU than the one described in its red lines or it has to accept some differentiation for Northern Ireland. (Nikos Skoutaris is Senior Lecturer in European Union Law, School of Law, University of East Anglia) (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

UK and EU face an almost unsolvable riddle

European leaders insisted Thursday that Prime Minister Theresa May must do more to avoid Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal, even after she indicated she was open to extending a Brexit transition period if it helped unblock negotiations.

At a summit in Brussels, May confirmed that she is considering the extension idea floated by the EU as a possible way to break the deadlock over how to keep Britain's border with Ireland open after Brexit.

But other EU nations warned this may not resolve the impasse, which has raised fears of the potentially catastrophic scenario of Britain crashing out in March without any agreement.

May's own officials also admitted that an extension -- which has sparked outrage among eurosceptics at home -- would not affect London's position on the Irish border.

Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel repeated an earlier call from EU Council President Donald Tusk for the prime minister to act, saying: "More than ever, the ball is in Britain's court."

Longer transition

This week's Brussels summit had been set as the deadline for a draft deal, but the other 27 EU leaders were left once again demanding more progress from London.

Arriving for the second day on Thursday, May noted that both sides remained at odds over a "backstop" plan to avoid frontier checks between Britain and Ireland if and until a new trade deal to resolve the issue can be signed.

"A further idea that has emerged -- and it is an idea at this stage -- is to create an option to extend the implementation period for a matter of months," she told reporters.

Currently a transition phase is planned from Brexit next March until the end of December 2020, to allow time to sign a new EU-UK trade deal.

Extending this could reduce the likelihood of having to use any "backstop" plan, thus taking the heat out of the most contested Brexit issue.

The EU suggests that the British province of Northern Ireland stay aligned to its single market and customs union until a new trade deal is agreed.

But Britain has rejected this, proposing instead that the whole United Kingdom temporarily follow EU customs rules -- something Brussels in turn has said is not possible.

A senior British official confirmed Thursday that even if the transition were extended, Britain remained opposed to the EU's backstop plan.

EU nations also questioned whether the idea would change the situation.

A source in the French presidency warned that an extension "could be part of the discussion but is not an ideal solution".

Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel added that Britain's general approach remained a problem.

"It's not possible that the UK keeps all the advantages from the common market but only under its own conditions," he told reporters.

'Embarrassing climbdown'

Even if May's suggestion of an extension to the transition is unlikely to break the deadlock in Brussels, it energised her critics in London.

The Conservative leader has been struggling since the 2016 vote for Brexit to find a compromise divorce deal that is acceptable to both the EU and her own MPs, who could block the final accord in the House of Commons.

Boris Johnson and David Davis, two former ministers who quit in July over her approach to Brexit, signed a joint letter demanding Britain avoid the "purgatory of perpetual membership of the EU's customs union".

On the other side of the political divide, the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats said extending the transition was another "embarrassing climbdown" for May.

May did little to deflect their anger by suggesting that she did not expect any extension to be used, because she expected a trade deal before December 2020.

The prime minister had made a personal plea to fellow EU leaders on Wednesday to recognise the progress made so far and keep negotiating.

Over dinner afterwards, they agreed to keep talking, but upped the pressure by refusing to sign off on a planned special summit next month to seal the divorce.

Failure to meet in November could see a draft Brexit deal pushed back to a December summit, leaving little time for its ratification by the British and European parliaments.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said EU leaders had asked the bloc's executive "to work with even more vigour on a no-deal scenario".&nbsp;

European leaders insisted Thursday that Prime Minister Theresa May must do more to avoid Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal, even after she indicated she was open to extending a Brexit transition period if it helped unblock negotiations.

European leaders insisted Thursday that Prime Minister Theresa May must do more to avoid Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal, even after she indicated she was open to extending a Brexit transition period if it helped unblock negotiations. At a summit in Brussels, May confirmed that she is considering the extension idea floated by the EU as a possible way to break the deadlock over how to keep Britain's border with Ireland open after Brexit. But other EU nations warned this may not resolve the impasse, which has raised fears of the potentially catastrophic scenario of Britain crashing out in March without any agreement. May's own officials also admitted that an extension -- which has sparked outrage among eurosceptics at home -- would not affect London's position on the Irish border. Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel repeated an earlier call from EU Council President Donald Tusk for the prime minister to act, saying: "More than ever, the ball is in Britain's court." Longer transition This week's Brussels summit had been set as the deadline for a draft deal, but the other 27 EU leaders were left once again demanding more progress from London. Arriving for the second day on Thursday, May noted that both sides remained at odds over a "backstop" plan to avoid frontier checks between Britain and Ireland if and until a new trade deal to resolve the issue can be signed. "A further idea that has emerged -- and it is an idea at this stage -- is to create an option to extend the implementation period for a matter of months," she told reporters. Currently a transition phase is planned from Brexit next March until the end of December 2020, to allow time to sign a new EU-UK trade deal. Extending this could reduce the likelihood of having to use any "backstop" plan, thus taking the heat out of the most contested Brexit issue. The EU suggests that the British province of Northern Ireland stay aligned to its single market and customs union until a new trade deal is agreed. But Britain has rejected this, proposing instead that the whole United Kingdom temporarily follow EU customs rules -- something Brussels in turn has said is not possible. A senior British official confirmed Thursday that even if the transition were extended, Britain remained opposed to the EU's backstop plan. EU nations also questioned whether the idea would change the situation. A source in the French presidency warned that an extension "could be part of the discussion but is not an ideal solution". Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel added that Britain's general approach remained a problem. "It's not possible that the UK keeps all the advantages from the common market but only under its own conditions," he told reporters. 'Embarrassing climbdown' Even if May's suggestion of an extension to the transition is unlikely to break the deadlock in Brussels, it energised her critics in London. The Conservative leader has been struggling since the 2016 vote for Brexit to find a compromise divorce deal that is acceptable to both the EU and her own MPs, who could block the final accord in the House of Commons. Boris Johnson and David Davis, two former ministers who quit in July over her approach to Brexit, signed a joint letter demanding Britain avoid the "purgatory of perpetual membership of the EU's customs union". On the other side of the political divide, the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats said extending the transition was another "embarrassing climbdown" for May. May did little to deflect their anger by suggesting that she did not expect any extension to be used, because she expected a trade deal before December 2020. The prime minister had made a personal plea to fellow EU leaders on Wednesday to recognise the progress made so far and keep negotiating. Over dinner afterwards, they agreed to keep talking, but upped the pressure by refusing to sign off on a planned special summit next month to seal the divorce. Failure to meet in November could see a draft Brexit deal pushed back to a December summit, leaving little time for its ratification by the British and European parliaments. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said EU leaders had asked the bloc's executive "to work with even more vigour on a no-deal scenario".

UK PM mulls longer Brexit transition but European Union demands more progress

The European Union must be prepared for the real risk that negotiations over Britain's departure from the bloc will end without a deal, the EU's Brexit negotiator said on Monday.

"In the coming months of negotiations the key point is to conclude a withdrawal agreement. We are not yet there and to be clear, not only because of the Irish/Northern Ireland border," Michel Barnier said at a conference in Ireland.

"There is a real risk and we have to be prepared for any options, including no deal. It's not my option."

Speaking to reporters on his third visit to Ireland since the referendum, Michel Barnier said he was “not optimistic” and “not pessimistic” but “determined” that the two sides can break the current impasse on talks.

But he hinted that the UK would not have to come up with the final deal for Ireland, describing the June summit as “a stepping stone” to the October deadline for the wider Brexit deal to be completed.

The Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, said Britain’s “approach to negotiations will need to change in some way” if there is to be agreement over the issue.

Irish and EU negotiators are getting increasingly exasperated by what they see as Britain’s refusal to move forward on talks on the border issue before the June deadline.

Speaking to reporters on his third visit to Ireland since the referendum, Michel Barnier said he was 'not optimistic' and 'not pessimistic' but 'determined' that the two sides can break the current impasse on talks

The European Union must be prepared for the real risk that negotiations over Britain's departure from the bloc will end without a deal, the EU's Brexit negotiator said on Monday. "In the coming months of negotiations the key point is to conclude a withdrawal agreement. We are not yet there and to be clear, not only because of the Irish/Northern Ireland border," Michel Barnier said at a conference in Ireland. "There is a real risk and we have to be prepared for any options, including no deal. It's not my option." Speaking to reporters on his third visit to Ireland since the referendum, Michel Barnier said he was “not optimistic” and “not pessimistic” but “determined” that the two sides can break the current impasse on talks. But he hinted that the UK would not have to come up with the final deal for Ireland, describing the June summit as “a stepping stone” to the October deadline for the wider Brexit deal to be completed. The Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, said Britain’s “approach to negotiations will need to change in some way” if there is to be agreement over the issue. Irish and EU negotiators are getting increasingly exasperated by what they see as Britain’s refusal to move forward on talks on the border issue before the June deadline.

EU's Barnier says must be prepared for risk of no Brexit deal

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