Iran-US tensions: Sleeper cells could hit American targets in Europe as proxy attack fears grow

Iran is planning to have proxies attack American targets in different parts of the world if Donald Trump orders "large-scale attacks" against the country. Citing US and Western officials, The New York Times reported on Sunday evening that intercepted terrorist communications show that there is "some level of attack planning and coordination" happening, although they do not know the specific targets.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, they talked about confidential intelligence assessments that show there is "heightened chatter", which basically means electronic intercepts of terrorists’ communications. The murmurs of retaliation by Iran have caused worry among intelligence and counterterrorism officials of a wider retaliation to hit the US financially. Experts say that these terrorist attacks will raise costs for any US military campaign.

Intelligence officials say Tehran could have Houthis in Yemen resume attacks on Western shipping in the Red Sea. Sleeper cells could get into action in Europe, with Hezbollah and even Al Qaeda or its affiliates ordering attacks on American bases or embassies. A senior US official told NYT that they were tracking "a lot" of activity and planning.

Officials are unclear on what could trigger these attacks. US President Donald Trump has not confirmed the extent of the action against Iran. Trump is reportedly considering launching a limited strike on Iran to pressure Iran to agree to his nuclear demands. However, the NYT reported that if the Islamic Republic continues to resist a deal, a far larger campaign targeting regime change could happen later this year. The Trump administration is reportedly mulling hitting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, ballistic missile sites, or nuclear infrastructure in the initial strikes.

Iran’s government could see an American-led offensive as an existential threat, triggering it to launch proxy attacks. Meanwhile, reports suggest that the Pentagon has rushed additional Patriot batteries and other missile defences to safeguard its troops stationed across the Middle East. However, despite making preparations to defend its 30,000 to 40,000 troops, it is worried that preventing "softer" targets, such as attacks against civilians, would be tough.

Security experts have warned that any attack on Iran could draw the US into a wider conflict. It will be very different from the Venezuela attack in which President Nicolás Maduro was captured. Last week, a top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee had also warned that an attack on Iran could "endanger American forces across the Middle East and destabilise global markets."

Iran's proxies in the region include Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and the government of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. US and other Western officials have warned that even though these groups have been battered in the past few years owing to conflicts like the Israeli war and Syrian regime change, they hold the potential to stage strikes on American interests.

The US has moved a large number of fighter aircraft at it bases in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Satellite images show that at least 66 fighter jets are stationed at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. These include F-35s, the most advanced fighter jet in the world, along with F-15s and A-10s. USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R Ford aircraft carriers are also near Iranian waters.