HAL Tejas: How long will it take to know the real cause behind Dubai Airshow crash
A full investigation will involve teardown of critical components (engine, flight-control systems, airframe), analysis of data-recorders, witness and video evidence, and cross-comparison with maintenance history.
1. Crash confirmed and inquiry ordered
On 21 November 2025, a HAL Tejas fighter jet of the Indian Air Force (IAF) crashed during a demonstration flight at the Dubai Airshow 2025, killing the pilot. The IAF announced that a court of inquiry (CoI) will be constituted to ascertain the cause of the accident.
2. Wreckage securing and site investigation
Following the crash near Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai, emergency services responded promptly and the crash-site was secured. Recovery of major wreckage and initial data collection is assumed to be underway, though no public timeline for data-recorder recovery has been disclosed.
3. Preliminary review phase
In the weeks following the accident, the CoI will review key factors: aircraft configuration (Tejas Mk1), flight–display manoeuvres, maintenance logs, pilot history and environmental conditions (low-altitude demonstration, high-visibility show). No public preliminary cause has yet been announced.
4. Detailed technical examination
A full investigation will involve teardown of critical components (engine, flight-control systems, airframe), analysis of data-recorders (if fitted), witness and video evidence, and cross-comparison with maintenance history. Due to the high-profile nature (airshow, export potential) the scrutiny may be extended.
5. Submission of findings & classification limits
Once the CoI concludes, its report will be submitted to IAF/HAL/Ministry of Defence. Given the military nature of the aircraft and possible sensitive components, the full report may remain classified or a summary made public. Previous Indian military aircraft investigations suggest timelines vary from a few months to over a year for public disclosure.
6. Safety directives and fleet-actions
After cause-identification, the IAF/HAL will issue safety-directives: modification orders, display-manoeuvre restrictions, maintenance upgrades or pilot-training changes. These actions often follow the CoI findings and implementation may span months.
7. Estimated timeline for full clarity
Based on norms and data so far:
- 0–1 month: Crash, site secured, CoI constituted (already done)
- 1–3 months: Preliminary findings (flight path, display context, maintenance history)
- 3–9 months: Full technical forensic work (components, data, pilot/maintenance interplay)
- 9–18 months or more: Final report release (depending on classification), fleet-directives implemented
Because this event involves a high-visibility demonstration, potential export stakes and an indigenous platform, expect the full public clarity to lean toward the upper end of this estimate.
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