Cyclone 'Biparjoy' to intensify in next 24 hours, here's how it will impact monsoon in India

Cyclone ‘Biparjoy’, last recorded over the east-central and southeast Arabian Sea, is expected to shift northwards. It may intensify into a severe cyclonic storm within the next 24 hours, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.

IMD issued a warning in its latest bulletin at 5:30 am on Wednesday, warning of consequent harsh weather and sea conditions, with wind speeds potentially reaching 135-145 km per hour. These winds are expected to gust up to 160 km per hour over the next three to four days. The Met department also advised fishermen to avoid venturing into the sea.

As of June 7, the cyclonic storm remained stationary for three hours, approximately 900 km west-southwest of Goa, 1020 km southwest of Mumbai, 1090 km south-southwest of Porbandar, and 1380 km south of Karachi.

India: Regions expected to get affected by Cyclone ‘Biparjoy’

The cyclone is expected to be felt in several southwestern states in India. By the evening of June 7, the winds may intensify to 95-105 km per hour, gusting up to 115 km per hour in the same area. Adjoining areas of the west-central and south Arabian Sea, and the coasts of north Kerala, Karnataka, and Goa are therefore likely to be most impacted by the storm.

On June 8, the wind speeds are expected to increase further, reaching 115-125 km per hour, gusting up to 140 km per hour from the evening. Areas along the Karnataka, Goa, and Maharashtra coasts will experience strong winds.

By June 9, wind speeds may escalate to 135-145 km per hour, gusting up to 160 km per hour from the evening, affecting the adjoining areas of the South Arabian Sea, Karnataka, and the Goa-Maharashtra coasts.

On June 10, gale winds with speeds of 145-155 km per hour, gusting up to 170 km per hour, are predicted over the central Arabian Sea. The adjoining areas of the south Arabian Sea, as well as the coasts of north Karnataka, Goa, and Maharashtra, will also be impacted.

Impact on weather in India

With the onset of the monsoon in Kerala already delayed, the Met department on Monday said the cyclonic storm is expected to critically influence the onset of monsoon towards the Kerala coast. The weather department is yet to give a tentative date for the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala while private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said it may happen on June 8 or June 9 that too with a “meek and mild entry”.

"These powerful weather systems in the Arabian Sea spoil the advancement of the monsoon deep inland. Under their influence, the monsoon stream may reach coastal parts but will struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats," it said.

The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days. The IMD had earlier predicted that the monsoon might arrive in the southern state by June 4. While the onset of monsoon in Kerala got further delayed due to the formation of a low-pressure system in the Arabian Sea, it does not mean, according to scientists, that the monsoon will reach other parts of the country late. It also does not impact the total rainfall over the country during the season.

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