US midterms 2026: Trump’s 33% approval rating spells trouble for Republicans as Democrats pull ahead

Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a new low, leaving Republicans with an uphill battle ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. With rising living costs adding to voter frustration, the president’s unpopularity is becoming a growing concern for his party.

A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll puts Trump’s approval at 33 per cent, while 66 per cent of Americans disapprove of his performance. More than half of all respondents, 52 per cent, said they strongly disapprove of the president.

The numbers are also reflected in the congressional race. Democrats now hold an eight-point lead over Republicans among registered and likely voters in the contest for the House of Representatives. In July, their lead was three points among registered voters.

The cost of living is catching up with Trump

Trump’s promise to improve the economy is running into a problem: many Americans say they are worse off than before he returned to office. His approval rating on the economy has fallen to 28 per cent, down from 33 per cent in July and 49 per cent at the same point in the 2018 midterm campaign.

The poll found that 48 per cent of Americans feel their finances have taken a hit since Trump returned to the White House in 2025. No president has recorded a higher figure on this measure in Washington Post-ABC polling since 1986.

Fuel prices are adding to the frustration. Before the US launched military action against Iran in February, 71 per cent of respondents said gasoline was affordable. The latest poll shows the opposite, with 71 per cent now saying it is unaffordable. Groceries, healthcare and home energy are also putting pressure on household budgets.

Iran war adds to Trump’s political troubles

Dissatisfaction with the president is also shaping voters’ preferences for the next Congress. Asked whether they preferred Democrats to check Trump or Republicans to back his agenda, 58 per cent of registered voters chose the Democrats. Just 39 per cent wanted a Republican Congress supporting the president.

Trump also faces widespread opposition to the war with Iran. Sixty-five per cent of respondents said military action was a mistake, while 68 per cent disapproved of Trump’s handling of US allies.

Yet a Democratic advantage in national polling does not guarantee victory in individual races. Republicans still have a fundraising edge, and turnout could change the picture considerably.

Democratic voters are currently more likely to say they are certain to vote than Republicans, 75 per cent to 67 per cent.

For Republicans, the challenge is to turn around voter sentiment before November 3. The poll does not predict the outcome of individual races, but the combination of Trump’s low approval rating, economic dissatisfaction and Democrats’ lead in the House contest points to a difficult campaign for the party defending its narrow majority.