Iran missile range expands after Diego Garcia strike: Are London, Paris and Berlin at risk?

The Israeli Defence Force has warned that all the major European cities, including London, Paris and Berlin, are within Iran's range. This alert came following the attempted Iranian strike on the joint UK-US military base in Diego Garcia, located in the Indian Ocean, on March 21. The strike reportedly missed but sparked a fear among the European strategists and analysts that Iran might have more military might than previously anticipated. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper used this threat to justify the expansion of UK operations and “offensive action against ballistic missile threats”.

A warning from Iran to the UK?

Iranian Foreign Minister on Saturday warned the UK against getting involved in America's war of choice, “The vast majority of the British People do not want any part in the Israel-US war of choice on Iran. Ignoring his own People, Mr Starmer is putting British lives in danger by allowing UK bases to be used for aggression against Iran. Iran will exercise its right to self-defence," wrote Abbas Araghchi in a social media post.

US officials believe the missiles used were likely from the Khorramshahr-4 class, an intermediate-range ballistic missile that analysts had previously assessed to have a potential range exceeding 4,000 kilometres. US intelligence earlier claimed that Khorramshahr-4 had a range of 2000 kilometres. The recent launch is also believed to carry a warhead exceeding one tonne or up to 80 cluster munitions. Iran publicly capped its ballistic missile range at 2,000 km. It is unclear whether Iran hid its missile capabilities or the Western intelligence simply failed to keep up the pace.

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Can the UK defend against Iranian missiles?

British celebrity journalist Piers Morgan accused Iran of lying about its ballistic missile capabilities and suggested that the UK has "zero defence against missiles" In a ballistic attack scenario, the UK is believed to rely on American SM-3 defence systems stationed across Eastern Europe, or the Patriot missiles used by the Germans, to intercept rockets. The two missiles that were launched towards Diego Garcia, one of them was shot down by the US warship’s SM-3 interceptor, and the other was lost in flight. Diego Garcia base is about 3,800 kilometres; London is about 4,435 kilometres; Paris is approximately 4,195 kilometres; and Berlin is approximately 3,500 kilometres.

Foreign Affairs analyst, Nawaf Al-Thani, added, “Iran may have demonstrated reach far beyond what much of the world believed it possessed. Paris comes into range. London moves much closer to the edge of vulnerability depending on launch point and payload.”