48 million barrels of cheap crude stranded at sea as US sanctions on Russian oil kicks in. How India will be hit

An estimated 48 million barrels of cheap crude – many originally headed to India or China – are stranded at sea as US sanctions on Russian oil linked to the Ukraine war take effect, reports said on Friday (Nov 21). The move will affect India, one of the key buyers of Russian crude. Here is why it matters.

US sanctions Russia’s biggest oil producers

The US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil took effect on Friday. These two Russian giants account for between 50 and 70 per cent of Russia’s seaborne crude exports, amounting to roughly 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd). The sanctions include full blocking, freezing US-linked assets of these companies, and barring transactions with US-linked firms. Global buyers such as India and China face secondary sanctions if they continue collecting these cargoes after the wind-down deadline.

Stranded cargoes, the immediate fallout visible at sea

According to analytics firm Kpler, nearly 48 million barrels of Rosneft and Lukoil crude across around 50 tankers are now loaded, in transit, or delayed, Bloomberg reported. This equals almost two weeks of exports from the sanctioned firms. The oil is stranded in regions ranging from the Baltic and Black Sea to the Pacific. Many ports and refiners have refused to unload the cargoes after the sanctions deadline passed. Possible outcomes now include rerouting, ship-to-ship transfers, or extended floating storage.

Sanctions have hit Russian oil prices and revenue

Russian oil prices have struggled in recent months, with the Urals crude trading at a 19–30 dollar discount to Brent crude. Some Urals spot sales are now at 36–47 dollars per barrel, compared with 62–65 dollars for Brent. This has sharply squeezed Russia’s per-barrel revenue. Buyers willing to take the risk are demanding larger discounts because of the sanctions environment.
Russia has kept seaborne loadings near 3.4 million bpd, but unloading delays mean a growing share of exports is stuck offshore. As per a JPMorgan estimate, nearly 1.4 million bpd are effectively in floating storage. Prolonged delays could force Russia to cut production if storage fills beyond capacity. Oil and gas account for 40–50 per cent of Russia’s federal budget, and October energy-related tax revenues were already down more than 24 per cent on year.

Impact on India, the key buyer of Russian oil

Despite trimming some volumes, India remains among the most exposed buyers of Russian crude. In 2025, India is estimated to have imported 1.7–2 million bpd of Russian oil, accounting for as much as 40 per cent of its total crude imports. Cheap Russian supply helped India stabilise domestic fuel prices, but that advantage is now under strain.
Major refiners, including the state-run Indian Oil Corporation, have already halted or cancelled December and January purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil. Some of the currently stranded tankers were India-bound, but cannot unload. India is turning to Middle Eastern and US suppliers, pushing freight rates to five-year highs and increasing overall import costs for the country.
The shift could raise India’s import bill and narrow its refinery margins. Petrol and diesel prices may rise if higher costs persist. Some Russian flows might resume indirectly or via unsanctioned producers, but the period of reliably cheap Russian crude appears to be ending.