Ahead of the BRICS Summit to be held later this month, Russia which chairs the BRICS group has called on its partners to come up with an alternative to the International Monetary Fund(IMF). The reason being it is bearing the brunt of Western sanctions due to its war in Ukraine. BRICS comprise countries which are key drivers of economic growth, most notably India and China which are the fastest-growing economies. With more countries joining hands, BRICS is fast emerging as a geopolitical counterweight to the West, which seeks to challenge the hegemony of Western institutions such as the World Bank and the United Nations.

Russia Proposes IMF Alternative: Can BRICS Set A New World Order?

G20 Summit 2023: The 18th G20 Summit in New Delhi&nbsp;is proving to be a mega event, perhaps the largest in the history of G20. Attended by more than 30 heads of State/Government, it discussed issues that are not only relevant to the G20 countries but hold significance to the future of the entire planet, duly justifying the theme of this year’s G20 i.e. ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’. &nbsp;The ‘Delhi Declaration’ issued on the first day&nbsp;of the summit was an apt reflection of the priorities that India proposed, key among them being the focus on inclusion of the Global South in the G20, inclusive and human-centric development, climate preservation models through ‘just transition’ and a new model for financial inclusion for the developing world. The joint declaration was also a result of deft diplomacy from India, which had to navigate through several disagreements and conflicting views, prominent among them was the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the resultant stand-off between Russia and the West. &nbsp;

The G20, which consists of the world's major powers and important economies, has 19 countries plus the EU and now the African Union as members and represents&nbsp;more than 85% of global GDP, 75% of international trade and more than two-thirds of the world's population. Among the 19 countries are the P5 of the UN Security Council, others being Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, &nbsp;Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Türkiye with Spain as a permanent invitee. In addition, prominent forums like the World Bank, and IMF too are permanent invitees. The presidency is a rotational responsibility, on an annual basis.&nbsp;

From an Indian standpoint, this was India’s first G20 presidency and coincided with the celebrations of its 75th year of independence. It was also the largest-ever gathering of world leaders hosted in India. It also came at a time when the world is looking for answers to serious global issues like Covid-19 pandemic which has adversely affected global supply chains, the Russia-Ukraine war which has split the world vertically between the ‘West and the Rest’ as well as the continued threat posed by China’s aggressive designs in East and South East Asia. In all of this, if there is one country that emerged above the gloom, it is India, which not only provided Covid-19 vaccines to its people but also to more than 100 countries in the world. Its resoluteness and exercise of its strategic autonomy in the face of extreme pressure posed by the West on Russia-Ukraine war, was acknowledged world over and later reluctantly accepted by the West too. India’s proactive steps in tackling climate disasters and promotion towards renewable energy have been taken note of&nbsp;by the world. In the midst of all this, India quietly climbed the ladder to become the fifth-largest economy and has been projected to continue its northward trajectory as the fastest-growing economy in the coming years. All this gave India prominence and the required fillip to set a proactive and futuristic agenda&nbsp;for its G20 presidency which is aptly reflected in the Delhi Declaration. &nbsp;

<h2>The Many Firsts and Unique Outcomes&nbsp;</h2>

Perhaps the most significant outcome of India’s G20 has been the inclusion of the African Union as a G20 member. Right through its presidency, India has been vocal about becoming the ‘Voice of the Global South’. India hosted the first ever ‘Voice of Global South Summit’ on 12-13 January 2023. The Summit was held in a virtual format, with the participation of 125 countries of the Global South. India has constantly held the position that the concerns and needs of the Global South are essential to seek equitable solutions to global problems and thus inclusion of the African Union as a permanent member was an exclusive initiative and success of India.&nbsp;

India’s emphasis on LIFE (Lifestyle for Environment) and climate preservation and getting the G20 nations to agree on a ‘just transition’ to save the planet is yet another huge achievement of the Summit. It now involves a country-specific climate assessment and transition rather than the earlier ‘one size fits all’ approach. The joint declaration aptly stated that ‘Just energy transitions can improve jobs and livelihoods, and strengthen economic resilience. We affirm that no country should have to choose between fighting poverty and fighting for our planet’.

India has already demonstrated its commitment by surpassing its renewable energy target nine years ahead of the 2030 target set at the 2015 Paris Climate Summit, where India had pledged that 40% of its power capacity would be met by non-fossil fuels by 2030, a target that was met in December 2021 itself. In addition, India’s global initiatives like the International Solar Alliance set up in 2015 and which now has over 100 countries as members, and the now proposed Global Bio Fuels Alliance are huge steps towards preserving the climate. Over the year of its presidency, India also showcased its traditional ‘living in harmony with the nature’ as an effective measure to safeguard the climate. Another Indian initiative, setting up the Coalition for Disaster Resilience so that countries across the world, especially developing countries, learn from each other and build infrastructure that is resilient even during disasters, was widely acknowledged and applauded at the Summit.&nbsp;

Promotion of Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) has been another landmark achievement of India’s presidency. India through its DPI has been able to pull millions out of poverty by ensuring financial inclusion and ‘direct benefit transfer’ stopping leakages. The digital payment system has caught global attention with advanced economies like Japan, Singapore, France, Germany, UAE looking at ways to adopt it. Noting India’s expertise and rapid growth in DPI, the joint declaration welcomed India’s plan to build and maintain a Global Digital Public Infrastructure Repository (GDPIR), a virtual repository of DPI, voluntarily shared by G20 members and beyond. It also welcomed Indian Presidency’s proposal of the One Future Alliance (OFA), a voluntary initiative aimed at building capacity, and providing technical assistance and adequate funding support for implementing DPI in Low and Middle-Income economies.&nbsp;

India also placed emphasis on addressing the global challenges posed by debt vulnerabilities, especially for nations in the Global South. G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors have acknowledged the problem and the need to establish strong mechanisms to help the affected nations. Towards this, the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, a joint initiative of the IMF, World Bank and the G20 Presidency has been launched this year. India has already helped Sri Lanka in its debt restructuring while the G20 has now taken note of cases of Zambia, Ethiopia and Ghana for progressing their cases. &nbsp;

There were many more outcomes in the 37-page declaration, an outcome of over 10 months of labored and thought-provoking and futuristic discussions. By organising over 200 meetings across 60 cities, India has set yet another benchmark for the future of G20. India’s vision to make it ‘peoples presidency’ has not only helped showcase the diversity and vibrancy of all parts of India to the world but has also set the tone that G20 cannot be an elitist club, to be entertained in the capital city only. When seen in context with India’s push for inclusion of the African Union in the G20, it is a clear step towards democratization of the G20. &nbsp;

<h2>Shaping the New World Order&nbsp;</h2>

India’s G20 presidency came at a critical point when the existing global order was in crisis and the established norms were being challenged. Russia Russia-Ukraine war has split the world between the ‘West and the Rest’ while China’s aggressive designs and refusal to follow the ‘rules-based order’ are causing discord. The US is no longer the single ‘pole’ and its dollar dominance is being challenged. To add to the chaos is the global crisis caused in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic which has disrupted global supply chains, causing huge shortages in food and energy in the developing and under-developed nations. The relevance and potential of international financial institutions like the Bretton Woods Institutions i.e. the World Bank, and the IMF along with several multilateral development banks etc., to tackle modern-day issues is being questioned. PM Modi’s remarks that “a mid-20th century approach cannot serve the world in the 21st century. So, our international institutions need to recognise changing realities, expand their decision-making forums, relook at their priorities and ensure representation of voices that matter”, aptly puts the issues in correct perspective.&nbsp;

In all this muddle and uncertainty, the world is looking for a nation that enjoys goodwill across ideologies, is a trustworthy partner, is technologically and economically sound, has no aggressive designs or extra-territorial ambitions and respects the ‘rule-based order’. India ticks all these boxes and more, with its vibrant democracy and diversity being added pluses. So, when India talked of the need to include the Global South in important decision-making discourse, it was accepted. When India stood firm on exercising its strategic autonomy and serving its national interests during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it was not only accepted but gave it the status of a global leader, ‘Vishwaguru’ status. India’s G20 presidency has thus set the foundation for a new and fast-evolving world order which would be more diverse and inclusive and a world order which will witness the emergence of multiple poles, unlike the fast-eroding existing world order.&nbsp;

<h2>The Finale&nbsp;</h2>

Coming amidst huge uncertainties about the outcome of the G20 Summit, India practically pulled off a heist when PM Modi announced right in the morning session of the first day that a consensus has been reached on adopting the Delhi Declaration. It caught all the pundits by surprise, the majority of whom were doubtful of a consensus declaration and others who were hopeful of a declaration, albeit in a photo finish. &nbsp;&nbsp;

The main sticking point on the Ukraine war was deftly re-worded to state that G20 expresses deep concern about the immense human suffering and the adverse impact of wars and conflicts around the world. In line with the UN Charter, all states must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition against the territorial integrity and sovereignty or political independence of any state. The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible. It added that G20 is not the platform to resolve geopolitical and security issues and ended the para by stating that there were different views and assessments of the situation. With Russia on board with it, China probably had no option but to relent not only on Ukraine but also on the theme of the G20 presidency, ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’ which interestingly was the first para of the preamble of the declaration, perhaps a ‘tease or a dare’ to China!&nbsp;

As PM Modi himself stated, “India’s G20 Presidency has been the most ambitious in the history of G-20. With 112 outcomes and presidency documents, we have more than doubled the substantive work from previous presidencies." Modi emphasized on the need for inclusive human-centric development in which women get their due role and importance. India’s emphasis towards women-led development was applauded at the summit. India also proposed to launch the 'G20 Satellite Mission for Environment and Climate Observation' and also announced the launch of the Global Biofuel Alliance and urged G20 nations to join the initiative with a plea to take ethanol blending with petrol globally to 20 per cent, both perhaps cherries on the cake in the success of the Summit. &nbsp;

The G20 presidency of India has thus been spectacular and pathbreaking. The benchmarks it has set will be difficult to match in the future. It has once again re-affirmed India’s global leadership status.&nbsp;As Dr Jaishankar said at the press conference, “The G20 has contributed to making India world-ready and the world India-ready". India’s moment has truly arrived. PM Modi and his team have made it a habit of delivering against the greatest of odds and this G20 Summit was just the latest among, in a long list. Today, while the world heaves a sigh of relief at yet another day saved from the blushes, Bharat celebrates and the tricolor flies high.&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us <a href="https://www.wionews.com/content-contribution-registration-form">here</a>.

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G20 Summit 2023: The 18th G20 Summit in New Delhi is proving to be a mega event, perhaps the largest in the history of G20. Attended by more than 30 heads of State/Government, it discussed issues that are not only relevant to the G20 countries but hold significance to the future of the entire planet, duly justifying the theme of this year’s G20 i.

G20 Summit 2023: The 18th G20 Summit in New Delhi is proving to be a mega event, perhaps the largest in the history of G20. Attended by more than 30 heads of State/Government, it discussed issues that are not only relevant to the G20 countries but hold significance to the future of the entire planet, duly justifying the theme of this year’s G20 i.e. ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’. The ‘Delhi Declaration’ issued on the first day of the summit was an apt reflection of the priorities that India proposed, key among them being the focus on inclusion of the Global South in the G20, inclusive and human-centric development, climate preservation models through ‘just transition’ and a new model for financial inclusion for the developing world. The joint declaration was also a result of deft diplomacy from India, which had to navigate through several disagreements and conflicting views, prominent among them was the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the resultant stand-off between Russia and the West. The G20, which consists of the world's major powers and important economies, has 19 countries plus the EU and now the African Union as members and represents more than 85% of global GDP, 75% of international trade and more than two-thirds of the world's population. Among the 19 countries are the P5 of the UN Security Council, others being Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Türkiye with Spain as a permanent invitee. In addition, prominent forums like the World Bank, and IMF too are permanent invitees. The presidency is a rotational responsibility, on an annual basis. From an Indian standpoint, this was India’s first G20 presidency and coincided with the celebrations of its 75th year of independence. It was also the largest-ever gathering of world leaders hosted in India. It also came at a time when the world is looking for answers to serious global issues like Covid-19 pandemic which has adversely affected global supply chains, the Russia-Ukraine war which has split the world vertically between the ‘West and the Rest’ as well as the continued threat posed by China’s aggressive designs in East and South East Asia. In all of this, if there is one country that emerged above the gloom, it is India, which not only provided Covid-19 vaccines to its people but also to more than 100 countries in the world. Its resoluteness and exercise of its strategic autonomy in the face of extreme pressure posed by the West on Russia-Ukraine war, was acknowledged world over and later reluctantly accepted by the West too. India’s proactive steps in tackling climate disasters and promotion towards renewable energy have been taken note of by the world. In the midst of all this, India quietly climbed the ladder to become the fifth-largest economy and has been projected to continue its northward trajectory as the fastest-growing economy in the coming years. All this gave India prominence and the required fillip to set a proactive and futuristic agenda for its G20 presidency which is aptly reflected in the Delhi Declaration. The Many Firsts and Unique Outcomes Perhaps the most significant outcome of India’s G20 has been the inclusion of the African Union as a G20 member. Right through its presidency, India has been vocal about becoming the ‘Voice of the Global South’. India hosted the first ever ‘Voice of Global South Summit’ on 12-13 January 2023. The Summit was held in a virtual format, with the participation of 125 countries of the Global South. India has constantly held the position that the concerns and needs of the Global South are essential to seek equitable solutions to global problems and thus inclusion of the African Union as a permanent member was an exclusive initiative and success of India. India’s emphasis on LIFE (Lifestyle for Environment) and climate preservation and getting the G20 nations to agree on a ‘just transition’ to save the planet is yet another huge achievement of the Summit. It now involves a country-specific climate assessment and transition rather than the earlier ‘one size fits all’ approach. The joint declaration aptly stated that ‘Just energy transitions can improve jobs and livelihoods, and strengthen economic resilience. We affirm that no country should have to choose between fighting poverty and fighting for our planet’. India has already demonstrated its commitment by surpassing its renewable energy target nine years ahead of the 2030 target set at the 2015 Paris Climate Summit, where India had pledged that 40% of its power capacity would be met by non-fossil fuels by 2030, a target that was met in December 2021 itself. In addition, India’s global initiatives like the International Solar Alliance set up in 2015 and which now has over 100 countries as members, and the now proposed Global Bio Fuels Alliance are huge steps towards preserving the climate. Over the year of its presidency, India also showcased its traditional ‘living in harmony with the nature’ as an effective measure to safeguard the climate. Another Indian initiative, setting up the Coalition for Disaster Resilience so that countries across the world, especially developing countries, learn from each other and build infrastructure that is resilient even during disasters, was widely acknowledged and applauded at the Summit. Promotion of Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) has been another landmark achievement of India’s presidency. India through its DPI has been able to pull millions out of poverty by ensuring financial inclusion and ‘direct benefit transfer’ stopping leakages. The digital payment system has caught global attention with advanced economies like Japan, Singapore, France, Germany, UAE looking at ways to adopt it. Noting India’s expertise and rapid growth in DPI, the joint declaration welcomed India’s plan to build and maintain a Global Digital Public Infrastructure Repository (GDPIR), a virtual repository of DPI, voluntarily shared by G20 members and beyond. It also welcomed Indian Presidency’s proposal of the One Future Alliance (OFA), a voluntary initiative aimed at building capacity, and providing technical assistance and adequate funding support for implementing DPI in Low and Middle-Income economies. India also placed emphasis on addressing the global challenges posed by debt vulnerabilities, especially for nations in the Global South. G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors have acknowledged the problem and the need to establish strong mechanisms to help the affected nations. Towards this, the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, a joint initiative of the IMF, World Bank and the G20 Presidency has been launched this year. India has already helped Sri Lanka in its debt restructuring while the G20 has now taken note of cases of Zambia, Ethiopia and Ghana for progressing their cases. There were many more outcomes in the 37-page declaration, an outcome of over 10 months of labored and thought-provoking and futuristic discussions. By organising over 200 meetings across 60 cities, India has set yet another benchmark for the future of G20. India’s vision to make it ‘peoples presidency’ has not only helped showcase the diversity and vibrancy of all parts of India to the world but has also set the tone that G20 cannot be an elitist club, to be entertained in the capital city only. When seen in context with India’s push for inclusion of the African Union in the G20, it is a clear step towards democratization of the G20. Shaping the New World Order India’s G20 presidency came at a critical point when the existing global order was in crisis and the established norms were being challenged. Russia Russia-Ukraine war has split the world between the ‘West and the Rest’ while China’s aggressive designs and refusal to follow the ‘rules-based order’ are causing discord. The US is no longer the single ‘pole’ and its dollar dominance is being challenged. To add to the chaos is the global crisis caused in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic which has disrupted global supply chains, causing huge shortages in food and energy in the developing and under-developed nations. The relevance and potential of international financial institutions like the Bretton Woods Institutions i.e. the World Bank, and the IMF along with several multilateral development banks etc., to tackle modern-day issues is being questioned. PM Modi’s remarks that “a mid-20th century approach cannot serve the world in the 21st century. So, our international institutions need to recognise changing realities, expand their decision-making forums, relook at their priorities and ensure representation of voices that matter”, aptly puts the issues in correct perspective. In all this muddle and uncertainty, the world is looking for a nation that enjoys goodwill across ideologies, is a trustworthy partner, is technologically and economically sound, has no aggressive designs or extra-territorial ambitions and respects the ‘rule-based order’. India ticks all these boxes and more, with its vibrant democracy and diversity being added pluses. So, when India talked of the need to include the Global South in important decision-making discourse, it was accepted. When India stood firm on exercising its strategic autonomy and serving its national interests during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it was not only accepted but gave it the status of a global leader, ‘Vishwaguru’ status. India’s G20 presidency has thus set the foundation for a new and fast-evolving world order which would be more diverse and inclusive and a world order which will witness the emergence of multiple poles, unlike the fast-eroding existing world order. The Finale Coming amidst huge uncertainties about the outcome of the G20 Summit, India practically pulled off a heist when PM Modi announced right in the morning session of the first day that a consensus has been reached on adopting the Delhi Declaration. It caught all the pundits by surprise, the majority of whom were doubtful of a consensus declaration and others who were hopeful of a declaration, albeit in a photo finish. The main sticking point on the Ukraine war was deftly re-worded to state that G20 expresses deep concern about the immense human suffering and the adverse impact of wars and conflicts around the world. In line with the UN Charter, all states must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition against the territorial integrity and sovereignty or political independence of any state. The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible. It added that G20 is not the platform to resolve geopolitical and security issues and ended the para by stating that there were different views and assessments of the situation. With Russia on board with it, China probably had no option but to relent not only on Ukraine but also on the theme of the G20 presidency, ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’ which interestingly was the first para of the preamble of the declaration, perhaps a ‘tease or a dare’ to China! As PM Modi himself stated, “India’s G20 Presidency has been the most ambitious in the history of G-20. With 112 outcomes and presidency documents, we have more than doubled the substantive work from previous presidencies." Modi emphasized on the need for inclusive human-centric development in which women get their due role and importance. India’s emphasis towards women-led development was applauded at the summit. India also proposed to launch the 'G20 Satellite Mission for Environment and Climate Observation' and also announced the launch of the Global Biofuel Alliance and urged G20 nations to join the initiative with a plea to take ethanol blending with petrol globally to 20 per cent, both perhaps cherries on the cake in the success of the Summit. The G20 presidency of India has thus been spectacular and pathbreaking. The benchmarks it has set will be difficult to match in the future. It has once again re-affirmed India’s global leadership status. As Dr Jaishankar said at the press conference, “The G20 has contributed to making India world-ready and the world India-ready". India’s moment has truly arrived. PM Modi and his team have made it a habit of delivering against the greatest of odds and this G20 Summit was just the latest among, in a long list. Today, while the world heaves a sigh of relief at yet another day saved from the blushes, Bharat celebrates and the tricolor flies high. (Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.) You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us here. WATCH WION LIVE HERE ×

‘Bharat’ aces G20, setting new benchmarks for a 21st century world order 

The world affairs were progressing normally till the COVID pandemic and Ukraine-Russian conflict shattered the dynamics of geopolitics. 
&nbsp; 
The pandemic put severe stress on all nations as fingers were pointed at China for the origin of the virus which claimed millions of lives. The subsequent developments led to a shift in geo-politics and led to the demand for UN reforms and more accountability.&nbsp;

China’s aggression on Hong Kong and Taiwan and its border clashes with India further exposed chinks in the world order. India adopted a tough stance that reflected in the Galwan clash and resisted consistent pressure to take sides in the Russia-Ukrainian war and kept abstaining from voting against Russia while reiterating that the war needs to stop.&nbsp;

Strategic readjustments in geopolitics

The deepening partnership between India and the US created a robust power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region to keep a check on China.&nbsp;

Besides, India’s regular engagements with France, Germany, Britain helped it strengthen its ties in the west. 
For a long time, India was seen as a nation with huge consumer base but it is now seen as an influencing power.

The European way

India’s relations with Europe are also undergoing a change and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) will open the gateway to Latvia and the Baltic region and provide seamless connectivity.&nbsp; 
The proposed INSTC crosses Iran (through Chabahar), Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, via central Asia to Russia and then finally to Europe and will double the cargo speed as compared to the current Suez Canal route.&nbsp;

India had been eyeing market in Baltic nations for long but the long sea route had been a hindrance.&nbsp; 
The ongoing greenfield Rail Baltica project will connect the Baltic States to the existing European rail network, by linking Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with Poland and from there with the European rail network, further enhancing trade opportunities and ties.

Besides, India and European nations are collaborating in the field of science and technology, marine research, and artificial intelligence.

West Asia consensus

India also has strategic, economic relations with nations in the Gulf region, including reliance for energy security. Countries in West Asia are diversifying their economies and opening new areas of engagement and India is keen on increasing trade ties.

African axis

India-Africa relations, both economic &amp; cultural, date back to the pre-colonial era and were strengthened during the national independence movement due to the success of M K Gandhi’s non-violent methods.&nbsp; 
India started engaging actively with African nations from 2014 onwards, as a result of which it opened 18 new Indian Missions in Africa.

India had announced a line of credit to finance capacity building, IT education, and higher education projects in African countries.&nbsp;

Indian Navy’s 2021 Maritime Strategy document and the African Union’s 2050 Africa Integrated Maritime Strategy (AIMS 2050) aim for a free and open Indian ocean for the benefit of all nations and can be a game-changer in the region.

Russia beyond defence

Ties between India and Russia had waned since the USSR split, but in the past two years, both countries set out to correct them and are ramping up economic ties.&nbsp;

The China conundrum 
&nbsp; 
For the last 6-7 years, the Indian Ocean region has been the centre of tussle between India and China. India came up with its necklace of diamonds strategy to counter to counter China’s string of pearls scheme. 
Two-thirds of the world’s oil, a third of the bulk cargo and half of all container traffic travel through IOR, that’s the reason why it’s important to expand India’s reach.&nbsp; 
India wants peace and stability in the Indian Ocean since it is vital for its economic transformation and has been improving relations with Vietnam, Mauritius and other nations in the region to counter the growing Chinese influence.

Island connect

India has also been increasing interaction with island states under Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and Pacific Island Forum (PIF) which contribute for more than 40 members at the UN. Their impact on voting in the UN and other multilateral forums draws even major powers to these island states. India has also pledged financial support to each island country and is increasing cultural and people to people connections with these nations.

Under its Neighbourhood First Policy, India has been supplying power to Bangladesh and Nepal while championing a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation electricity grid. Besides, India has been liberal in extending aid to its neighbours whenever required. 
India must work to a well thought out strategy to achieve its well-deserved place in the emerging world order.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

&nbsp;

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The world affairs were progressing normally till the COVID pandemic and Ukraine-Russian conflict shattered the dynamics of geopolitics. The pandemic put severe stress on all nations as fingers were pointed at China for the origin of the virus which claimed millions of lives.

The world affairs were progressing normally till the COVID pandemic and Ukraine-Russian conflict shattered the dynamics of geopolitics. The pandemic put severe stress on all nations as fingers were pointed at China for the origin of the virus which claimed millions of lives. The subsequent developments led to a shift in geo-politics and led to the demand for UN reforms and more accountability. China’s aggression on Hong Kong and Taiwan and its border clashes with India further exposed chinks in the world order. India adopted a tough stance that reflected in the Galwan clash and resisted consistent pressure to take sides in the Russia-Ukrainian war and kept abstaining from voting against Russia while reiterating that the war needs to stop. Strategic readjustments in geopolitics The deepening partnership between India and the US created a robust power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region to keep a check on China. Besides, India’s regular engagements with France, Germany, Britain helped it strengthen its ties in the west. For a long time, India was seen as a nation with huge consumer base but it is now seen as an influencing power. The European way India’s relations with Europe are also undergoing a change and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) will open the gateway to Latvia and the Baltic region and provide seamless connectivity. The proposed INSTC crosses Iran (through Chabahar), Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, via central Asia to Russia and then finally to Europe and will double the cargo speed as compared to the current Suez Canal route. India had been eyeing market in Baltic nations for long but the long sea route had been a hindrance. The ongoing greenfield Rail Baltica project will connect the Baltic States to the existing European rail network, by linking Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with Poland and from there with the European rail network, further enhancing trade opportunities and ties. Besides, India and European nations are collaborating in the field of science and technology, marine research, and artificial intelligence. West Asia consensus India also has strategic, economic relations with nations in the Gulf region, including reliance for energy security. Countries in West Asia are diversifying their economies and opening new areas of engagement and India is keen on increasing trade ties. African axis India-Africa relations, both economic & cultural, date back to the pre-colonial era and were strengthened during the national independence movement due to the success of M K Gandhi’s non-violent methods. India started engaging actively with African nations from 2014 onwards, as a result of which it opened 18 new Indian Missions in Africa. India had announced a line of credit to finance capacity building, IT education, and higher education projects in African countries. Indian Navy’s 2021 Maritime Strategy document and the African Union’s 2050 Africa Integrated Maritime Strategy (AIMS 2050) aim for a free and open Indian ocean for the benefit of all nations and can be a game-changer in the region. Russia beyond defence Ties between India and Russia had waned since the USSR split, but in the past two years, both countries set out to correct them and are ramping up economic ties. The China conundrum For the last 6-7 years, the Indian Ocean region has been the centre of tussle between India and China. India came up with its necklace of diamonds strategy to counter to counter China’s string of pearls scheme. Two-thirds of the world’s oil, a third of the bulk cargo and half of all container traffic travel through IOR, that’s the reason why it’s important to expand India’s reach. India wants peace and stability in the Indian Ocean since it is vital for its economic transformation and has been improving relations with Vietnam, Mauritius and other nations in the region to counter the growing Chinese influence. Island connect India has also been increasing interaction with island states under Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and Pacific Island Forum (PIF) which contribute for more than 40 members at the UN. Their impact on voting in the UN and other multilateral forums draws even major powers to these island states. India has also pledged financial support to each island country and is increasing cultural and people to people connections with these nations. Under its Neighbourhood First Policy, India has been supplying power to Bangladesh and Nepal while championing a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation electricity grid. Besides, India has been liberal in extending aid to its neighbours whenever required. India must work to a well thought out strategy to achieve its well-deserved place in the emerging world order. (Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.) WATCH WION LIVE HERE You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us here.

India emerging as ‘influencing power’ in new world order

“Demographics are destiny.”

It is a phrase — often attributed to French philosopher Auguste Comte — that suggests much of the future is preordained by the very simple trend lines of populations. Want to understand how the power dynamic between the United States and China will change over the next 20 years? An economist would tell you to look at the demographics of both countries. (China’s economy is likely to overtake the U.S. economy by 2028, but remain smaller on a per capita basis.)

Want to know how much lithium we’re going to need to mine to make batteries over the next 20 years? Demographics will most likely provide the answer. (We are likely to need 13 to 42 times the amount we currently use, according to the International Energy Agency.) And on and on.

Predicting the future may be a fool’s errand. But using demographic data to assess the opportunities and challenges of the next two decades is something that business and political leaders don’t do enough. We’re all too swept up in the here and now, the next quarter and the next year.

Of course, demographics can’t spot pandemics or other crises. But as seismic as they feel in the moment, such events are rare.

When DealBook began publishing 20 years ago, after 9/11, prognosticators suggested that travel might be reduced forever. It is true that air travel may have changed forever after the attacks, but within months, growth in air travel was back on track. Why? Demographics. More people around the world had more disposable income and increasingly chose to live closer to cities with greater access to airports. That, married with the human condition that people like to be around other people, makes forecasting certain elements of the future almost mathematical.

One aspect of the future that demographics can’t help predict are technological innovations. But even technological innovations have a slower impact on the day-to-day then we sometimes appreciate. Peter Thiel famously said in 2013: “We wanted flying cars. Instead we got 140 characters.”

So what comes next? If you woke up 20 years from now in 2041, what would be different? Here are some ideas based on numbers that don’t require a crystal ball.

About 70% of the world population is expected to live in urban areas by 2050, according to data from the United Nations.

That means most cities are going to need more infrastructure. Roads, public transportation and waste management will need massive expansion and upgrades. The average person produces 4.9 pounds of waste a day, up from 3.66 pounds in 1980. But here’s a trend going in the other direction as a result of technology: Paper and paperboard declined from 87.7 million tons in 2000 to 67.4 million tons in 2018, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

We’re also going to need a lot more energy.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that the world will need about 28% more energy in 2040 than it did in 2015 based on the number of people in the country and consumption patterns; on our current trajectory, about 42% of electricity in the United States will come from renewable sources.

Where will that electricity get produced? Solar power could be produced on largely unpopulated land masses and transported to population centers, an idea Elon Musk raised about China five years ago. China has “an enormous land area, much of which is hardly occupied at all,” he said, noting that most of China’s population is concentrated in coastal cities. “So you could easily power all of China with solar.”

Another trend that, like increasing energy needs, isn’t new and isn’t going away: on-demand everything. Technology has led us to expect that goods and services will be delivered at the push of a button, often within minutes. That could transform real estate, especially space in cities that is currently used for retail. As companies work toward instant deliveries, they’ll need to warehouse items closer and closer to customers. Real estate investors are already contemplating how to create mini-warehouses on every block. And the density of people in cities is likely to affect the farming and delivery of food. To get fresh produce to customers quickly, vertical farming — in indoor, controlled environments — could move from being the dream of some startups to a new reality.

And we’ll be older. In the United States, we’re likely to live until 82.4 years old, compared with the current life expectancy of 79.1 years, the United Nations forecasts. That’s a good thing for health care companies and others that cater to older people. But living three extra years is going to be more expensive, which will have implications for both working and saving. According to the Urban Institute, government “projections indicate that there will be 2.1 workers per Social Security beneficiary in 2040, down from 3.7 in 1970.”

Entrepreneurs, industry leaders and policymakers are already at work solving for some of the problems that demographic data suggest are ahead of us, whether it’s figuring out how to incentivize farmers to sequester carbon; use insurance as a tool for reducing coal production, reinvent the motors that power heavy industry so they use less energy; or write laws that help govern code.

What about the metaverse? Or crypto technology? Or robots taking our jobs? Or artificial intelligence taking over everything? Demographics can’t answer those questions. All of those things may happen, but life in 2041 may also look a lot like it does today — maybe with the exception of those flying cars.

“Demographics are destiny.” It is a phrase — often attributed to French philosopher Auguste Comte — that suggests much of the future is preordained by the very simple trend lines of populations.

“Demographics are destiny.” It is a phrase — often attributed to French philosopher Auguste Comte — that suggests much of the future is preordained by the very simple trend lines of populations. Want to understand how the power dynamic between the United States and China will change over the next 20 years? An economist would tell you to look at the demographics of both countries. (China’s economy is likely to overtake the U.S. economy by 2028, but remain smaller on a per capita basis.) Want to know how much lithium we’re going to need to mine to make batteries over the next 20 years? Demographics will most likely provide the answer. (We are likely to need 13 to 42 times the amount we currently use, according to the International Energy Agency.) And on and on. Predicting the future may be a fool’s errand. But using demographic data to assess the opportunities and challenges of the next two decades is something that business and political leaders don’t do enough. We’re all too swept up in the here and now, the next quarter and the next year. Of course, demographics can’t spot pandemics or other crises. But as seismic as they feel in the moment, such events are rare. When DealBook began publishing 20 years ago, after 9/11, prognosticators suggested that travel might be reduced forever. It is true that air travel may have changed forever after the attacks, but within months, growth in air travel was back on track. Why? Demographics. More people around the world had more disposable income and increasingly chose to live closer to cities with greater access to airports. That, married with the human condition that people like to be around other people, makes forecasting certain elements of the future almost mathematical. One aspect of the future that demographics can’t help predict are technological innovations. But even technological innovations have a slower impact on the day-to-day then we sometimes appreciate. Peter Thiel famously said in 2013: “We wanted flying cars. Instead we got 140 characters.” So what comes next? If you woke up 20 years from now in 2041, what would be different? Here are some ideas based on numbers that don’t require a crystal ball. About 70% of the world population is expected to live in urban areas by 2050, according to data from the United Nations. That means most cities are going to need more infrastructure. Roads, public transportation and waste management will need massive expansion and upgrades. The average person produces 4.9 pounds of waste a day, up from 3.66 pounds in 1980. But here’s a trend going in the other direction as a result of technology: Paper and paperboard declined from 87.7 million tons in 2000 to 67.4 million tons in 2018, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We’re also going to need a lot more energy. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that the world will need about 28% more energy in 2040 than it did in 2015 based on the number of people in the country and consumption patterns; on our current trajectory, about 42% of electricity in the United States will come from renewable sources. Where will that electricity get produced? Solar power could be produced on largely unpopulated land masses and transported to population centers, an idea Elon Musk raised about China five years ago. China has “an enormous land area, much of which is hardly occupied at all,” he said, noting that most of China’s population is concentrated in coastal cities. “So you could easily power all of China with solar.” Another trend that, like increasing energy needs, isn’t new and isn’t going away: on-demand everything. Technology has led us to expect that goods and services will be delivered at the push of a button, often within minutes. That could transform real estate, especially space in cities that is currently used for retail. As companies work toward instant deliveries, they’ll need to warehouse items closer and closer to customers. Real estate investors are already contemplating how to create mini-warehouses on every block. And the density of people in cities is likely to affect the farming and delivery of food. To get fresh produce to customers quickly, vertical farming — in indoor, controlled environments — could move from being the dream of some startups to a new reality. And we’ll be older. In the United States, we’re likely to live until 82.4 years old, compared with the current life expectancy of 79.1 years, the United Nations forecasts. That’s a good thing for health care companies and others that cater to older people. But living three extra years is going to be more expensive, which will have implications for both working and saving. According to the Urban Institute, government “projections indicate that there will be 2.1 workers per Social Security beneficiary in 2040, down from 3.7 in 1970.” Entrepreneurs, industry leaders and policymakers are already at work solving for some of the problems that demographic data suggest are ahead of us, whether it’s figuring out how to incentivize farmers to sequester carbon; use insurance as a tool for reducing coal production, reinvent the motors that power heavy industry so they use less energy; or write laws that help govern code. What about the metaverse? Or crypto technology? Or robots taking our jobs? Or artificial intelligence taking over everything? Demographics can’t answer those questions. All of those things may happen, but life in 2041 may also look a lot like it does today — maybe with the exception of those flying cars.

What will the world be like in 20 years?

The world order is in great flux and fluidity. Major geopolitical shifts, redistribution of power and shifts, along with a more unilateralist the United States are all conspiring together to create patterns of the disorder. The impact is perhaps felt on multilateralism and the institutional matrix that supported it. The overall shift is not merely confined to one region but is almost global. 
 
For example, Brexit and its consequences and implications on the EU might be a case in point here. The arena where multilateralism appears to be most weakened is in the use of force- a prerogative of states kept in check and hedged by norms and institutions of multilateralism. All this is overlaid by an evolving but intense geopolitical competition whose main axes are the China United States Faultline (held by some to be a metaphor for the ‘East’-West’ conflict).

Against this backdrop, questions of searing resonance are: should multilateralism be jettisoned? Does it have value under the current fluid conditions? Is there an alternative to multilateralism?

In varying permutations and combinations, the concept and practice of multilateralism kept the peace, to indifferent and varying degrees after World War II. But it must be noted here that multilateralism was never perfect; states ceded some power to organisations like the United Nations for their own purposes and interests. However, even in this perfect form, multilateralism held peace- albeit tenuously and in relative terms. It was the pre-emptive war launched by the United States in 2002 that could be said to have broken the back of multilateralism. The United States, in its unipolar moment, signalled that it was the only game in town, so to speak and no one could place a check on its power and its use. Thus, was the norm on the use of force weakened considerably.

This momentous development was followed or even complemented by power diffusion, and thereby, power transitions that empowered states like China and Russia. Allied to other structural trends like globalisation, and the weakening of multilateralism, states increasingly began to flex their muscles- China in what it holds to be ‘its sphere of influence’ and Russia what it holds to be ‘its near abroad’- Ukraine and Georgia. These developments were coeval with the rise of populism and nativism in the West of which Brexit was a casualty.

If the drift of events continues then there is a noticeably clear and present danger of the world sliding into an ‘anarchic’ zone where there will be no restraints on states even to go to war. Complemented by intense geopolitical rivalries that are growing by the day, this presents a danger to world peace and security. By themselves, states being states will not be and remain at peace with each other, especially when national interest is defined in narrow terms. The only hedge against war and conflict then lies in multilateralism. The caveat here is that the norms undergirding multilateralism must be revitalized and strengthened. The question of jettisoning it then does not arise.

It may even be that under current conditions of fluidity, volatility and geopolitical competition, it is revitalised multilateralism that can salvage peace and world order. Consider a contrapuntal here. In the absence of norms and other restraints, the world and its major states will revert to a pure balance of power competition. While it is not entirely known what configuration of power will emerge, bipolar or multipolar, but what appears to be certain is that the main axis of conflict will be China and the United States, with China being the challenger power. If the Thucydides trap which states that when one great power challenges another, war inevitably results, holds, then China and the US are destined to go to war with each other. 
 
This war, if it ensues will be a catastrophic one that will throw the world backward by decades and will exact a human toll and suffering that will be immense. What would the antidote to this ugly eventuality? Revitalized multilateralism that speaks to the needs of the times is the answer.

The alternatives to multilateralism are too bleak to even countenance. One other alternative could have been leadership provided by the United States. But, post 2016, the country has been on a disruptive insurgent path paradoxically also into a curious kind of quasi isolationism. Moreover, the United States even if it had an appetite for providing leadership, this would be resisted by others. (The opportunity provided by the COVID 19 for ‘shared leadership’ between China and the United States has been adroitly squandered).

This then, by elimination, leaves room and scope open only for revitalised multilateralism. But, as happened in its 20th-century avatar, where leaders and great powers saw eye to eye on major issues and the need for norms and multilateralism thereof, will the leaders and great powers of the 21st century do the same? This is a billion-dollar question whose answer even though it looks bleak now lies in the mists of the future. 
 
&nbsp;(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

The world order is in great flux and fluidity. Major geopolitical shifts, redistribution of power and shifts, along with a more unilateralist the United States are all conspiring together to create patterns of the disorder.

The world order is in great flux and fluidity. Major geopolitical shifts, redistribution of power and shifts, along with a more unilateralist the United States are all conspiring together to create patterns of the disorder. The impact is perhaps felt on multilateralism and the institutional matrix that supported it. The overall shift is not merely confined to one region but is almost global. For example, Brexit and its consequences and implications on the EU might be a case in point here. The arena where multilateralism appears to be most weakened is in the use of force- a prerogative of states kept in check and hedged by norms and institutions of multilateralism. All this is overlaid by an evolving but intense geopolitical competition whose main axes are the China United States Faultline (held by some to be a metaphor for the ‘East’-West’ conflict). Against this backdrop, questions of searing resonance are: should multilateralism be jettisoned? Does it have value under the current fluid conditions? Is there an alternative to multilateralism? In varying permutations and combinations, the concept and practice of multilateralism kept the peace, to indifferent and varying degrees after World War II. But it must be noted here that multilateralism was never perfect; states ceded some power to organisations like the United Nations for their own purposes and interests. However, even in this perfect form, multilateralism held peace- albeit tenuously and in relative terms. It was the pre-emptive war launched by the United States in 2002 that could be said to have broken the back of multilateralism. The United States, in its unipolar moment, signalled that it was the only game in town, so to speak and no one could place a check on its power and its use. Thus, was the norm on the use of force weakened considerably. This momentous development was followed or even complemented by power diffusion, and thereby, power transitions that empowered states like China and Russia. Allied to other structural trends like globalisation, and the weakening of multilateralism, states increasingly began to flex their muscles- China in what it holds to be ‘its sphere of influence’ and Russia what it holds to be ‘its near abroad’- Ukraine and Georgia. These developments were coeval with the rise of populism and nativism in the West of which Brexit was a casualty. If the drift of events continues then there is a noticeably clear and present danger of the world sliding into an ‘anarchic’ zone where there will be no restraints on states even to go to war. Complemented by intense geopolitical rivalries that are growing by the day, this presents a danger to world peace and security. By themselves, states being states will not be and remain at peace with each other, especially when national interest is defined in narrow terms. The only hedge against war and conflict then lies in multilateralism. The caveat here is that the norms undergirding multilateralism must be revitalized and strengthened. The question of jettisoning it then does not arise. It may even be that under current conditions of fluidity, volatility and geopolitical competition, it is revitalised multilateralism that can salvage peace and world order. Consider a contrapuntal here. In the absence of norms and other restraints, the world and its major states will revert to a pure balance of power competition. While it is not entirely known what configuration of power will emerge, bipolar or multipolar, but what appears to be certain is that the main axis of conflict will be China and the United States, with China being the challenger power. If the Thucydides trap which states that when one great power challenges another, war inevitably results, holds, then China and the US are destined to go to war with each other. This war, if it ensues will be a catastrophic one that will throw the world backward by decades and will exact a human toll and suffering that will be immense. What would the antidote to this ugly eventuality? Revitalized multilateralism that speaks to the needs of the times is the answer. The alternatives to multilateralism are too bleak to even countenance. One other alternative could have been leadership provided by the United States. But, post 2016, the country has been on a disruptive insurgent path paradoxically also into a curious kind of quasi isolationism. Moreover, the United States even if it had an appetite for providing leadership, this would be resisted by others. (The opportunity provided by the COVID 19 for ‘shared leadership’ between China and the United States has been adroitly squandered). This then, by elimination, leaves room and scope open only for revitalised multilateralism. But, as happened in its 20th-century avatar, where leaders and great powers saw eye to eye on major issues and the need for norms and multilateralism thereof, will the leaders and great powers of the 21st century do the same? This is a billion-dollar question whose answer even though it looks bleak now lies in the mists of the future. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

In multilateralism, lies the hope of world order, peace and security

Change begins with dialogue. We kickstart #WIONWorldOrder with BIMSTEC - One Bay, One Belief - Shared Prosperity. SESSION TWO: BIMSTEC: CREATING SHARED VALUE & CONSOLIDATING ECONOMIC INTEGRATION -Effective multilateralism, BIMSTEC’s vision of connectivity, and security capacity -Exploring new opportunities and leveraging strong partnership - Moving beyond SAARC - BIMSTEC a new momentum for regional cooperation, engagement and seamless connectivity -Evaluate India’s “Neighbourhood First Policy” and “Act East” policies -Understanding, preventing and surviving terrorism Dialogue Partners: Constantino Xavier, Fellow, Brookings India Veena Sikri, Professor & Ambassador Joyeeta Bhattacharje, Senior Fellow, ORF Dialogue Moderator: Palki Sharma

WION World Order session 2: BIMSTEC - Creating shared value and consolidating economic integration

Change begins with dialogue. We kickstart #WIONWorldOrder with BIMSTEC - One Bay, One Belief - Shared Prosperity. SESSION ONE: UNLOCKING THE POTENTIAL OF BIMSTEC -Understanding past successes of BIMSTEC to shape future priorities -Idea of BIMSTEC: Scope, Expansion & Challenges -Deepening Economic Cooperation -Geopolitical dimension of Maritime Security -Is SAARC irreplaceable? -Understanding the Maritime Dimension- Counter-Terrorism & and Maritime Security Initiative Dialogue Partners: His Excellency Mr. Chutintorn Gongsakdi, Ambassador of Thailand His Excellency Mr. Austin Fernando, High Commissioner of Sri Lanka His Excellency Mr. Syed Muazzem Ali, Bangladesh High Commissioner to India Dialogue Moderator: Palki Sharma

WION World Order session 1: Unlocking the potential of BIMSTEC

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