By David Cortright

Many are worried about the risk of war between the US&nbsp;and Iran. But the truth is, the US&nbsp;has been fighting with Iran for decades in an economic war waged via sanctions – which is about to get a lot worse.

Concerns about a war of guns, warplanes and missiles grew after Iran shot down a US&nbsp;spy drone amid already worsening tensions. President Donald Trump says he ordered a retaliatory strike in response – only to reverse course at the last minute.

Whether or not a shooting war does break out, the United States’ economic war has already been intensifying over the past year. Trump promised “major” new sanctions in response to the attack on the drone.

Existing sanctions have already devastated innocent Iranians. Not only that, they’ve undermining long-accepted principles of international cooperation and diplomacy, a topic I’ve been researching for the past 25 years.

Carrots and sticks

Many nations have recognised that sanctions work best as tools of persuasion rather than punishment.

Sanctions by themselves rarely succeed in changing the behaviour of a targeted state. They are often combined with diplomacy in a carrots-and-sticks bargaining framework designed to achieve negotiated solutions.

Indeed, the offer to lift sanctions can be a persuasive inducement in convincing a targeted regime to alter its policies, as was the case when successful negotiations involving the US&nbsp;and Europe led to the Iran nuclear deal in 2015. That deal ended sanctions in exchange for Tehran shutting down much of its nuclear production capacity.

A year ago Trump withdrew the US&nbsp;from that accord and not only reimposed previous sanctions but added further restrictions, including so-called secondary sanctions that penalize other countries for continuing to trade with Iran.

Multilateral vs unilateral sanctions 
 
In an increasingly globalised world, unilateral sanctions like these – in which one country goes it alone – are rarely effective at achieving their end result, which in this case is regime change.

Multilateral sanctions involving several or many countries have greater impact and make it more difficult for targeted individuals or regimes to find alternative sources of oil or other goods. And getting authorization through the United Nations or regional organizations provides legal and political cover.

When the UN&nbsp;Security Council imposed targeted sanctions on Iran in 2006 over its illicit nuclear activities, for example, members of the European Union were able to join the US&nbsp;and other countries in applying pressures that brought Iran to the bargaining table. That’s what led to the negotiated nuclear deal nine years later.

The US&nbsp;circumvented this voluntary multilateral process when it withdrew from the accord and unilaterally imposed “extraterritorial secondary sanction.” These barred nations or companies that buy Iranian oil or other sanctioned products from doing business in the US

Although most countries disagree with the US&nbsp;withdrawal from the Iran deal and some reject such sanctions as an infringement on their own sovereignty, they are powerless. They cannot afford to lose access to dollar financing and the US economy and thus are forced against their will to do Washington’s bidding.

Iranians pay the price 
 
And the Iranian people are paying the price.

Oil exports and national income are dropping, inflation is rising and economic hardships are mounting. The Iranian rial lost more than 60 per cent of its value in the last year, eroding the savings of ordinary Iranians.

Life is becoming increasingly difficult for working families struggling to make ends meet. There are indications that the new sanctions are inhibiting the flow of humanitarian goods and contributing to shortages in specialised medicines to treat ailments such as multiple sclerosis and cancer.

Cargill and other global food giants have halted shipments to Iran because of the lack of available financing.

Punishment of the Iranian people seems to be a deliberate policy. When asked recently how the administration expects sanctions to change the behaviour of the Iranian government, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo acknowledged they won’t be able to do that and instead suggested it’s up to the people to “change the government.”

In other words, the pain of sanctions will force people to rise up and overthrow their leaders. This is as naïve as it is cynical. It reflects the long-discredited theory that sanctioned populations will direct their frustrations and anger at national leaders and demand a change in policy or the regime. Sanctions have never worked for this purpose.

The more likely result is the classic “rally around the flag” effect. Iranians are critical of their government’s economic policies, but they also blame Trump for the hardships resulting from sanctions. Governments subjected to sanctions are adept at blaming economic hardships on their external adversaries, as Iran’s religious and elected leaders are doing now against the United States.

Tehran is likely to respond to tightening sanctions by giving greater authority to companies associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, a major branch of the Iranian military, further empowering the very hard-line forces Washington claims to oppose.

The White House is ignoring these realities and adding even more draconian sanctions, while threatening and making preparations for military strikes, hoping that economic pain and military pressure will make Iran’s leaders cry uncle. There is no sign of surrender yet from Tehran, nor is there likely to be, until the two sides pull back from the brink and agree to negotiate a diplomatic settlement.

(David Cortright is Director of Policy Studies, Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame)

(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/risk-of-shooting-war-with-iran-grows-after-decades-of-economic-warfare-by-the-us-119272">original article)</a>

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp;

By David Cortright Many are worried about the risk of war between the US and Iran. But the truth is, the US has been fighting with Iran for decades in an economic war waged via sanctions – which is about to get a lot worse.

By David Cortright Many are worried about the risk of war between the US and Iran. But the truth is, the US has been fighting with Iran for decades in an economic war waged via sanctions – which is about to get a lot worse. Concerns about a war of guns, warplanes and missiles grew after Iran shot down a US spy drone amid already worsening tensions. President Donald Trump says he ordered a retaliatory strike in response – only to reverse course at the last minute. Whether or not a shooting war does break out, the United States’ economic war has already been intensifying over the past year. Trump promised “major” new sanctions in response to the attack on the drone. Existing sanctions have already devastated innocent Iranians. Not only that, they’ve undermining long-accepted principles of international cooperation and diplomacy, a topic I’ve been researching for the past 25 years. Carrots and sticks Many nations have recognised that sanctions work best as tools of persuasion rather than punishment. Sanctions by themselves rarely succeed in changing the behaviour of a targeted state. They are often combined with diplomacy in a carrots-and-sticks bargaining framework designed to achieve negotiated solutions. Indeed, the offer to lift sanctions can be a persuasive inducement in convincing a targeted regime to alter its policies, as was the case when successful negotiations involving the US and Europe led to the Iran nuclear deal in 2015. That deal ended sanctions in exchange for Tehran shutting down much of its nuclear production capacity. A year ago Trump withdrew the US from that accord and not only reimposed previous sanctions but added further restrictions, including so-called secondary sanctions that penalize other countries for continuing to trade with Iran. Multilateral vs unilateral sanctions In an increasingly globalised world, unilateral sanctions like these – in which one country goes it alone – are rarely effective at achieving their end result, which in this case is regime change. Multilateral sanctions involving several or many countries have greater impact and make it more difficult for targeted individuals or regimes to find alternative sources of oil or other goods. And getting authorization through the United Nations or regional organizations provides legal and political cover. When the UN Security Council imposed targeted sanctions on Iran in 2006 over its illicit nuclear activities, for example, members of the European Union were able to join the US and other countries in applying pressures that brought Iran to the bargaining table. That’s what led to the negotiated nuclear deal nine years later. The US circumvented this voluntary multilateral process when it withdrew from the accord and unilaterally imposed “extraterritorial secondary sanction.” These barred nations or companies that buy Iranian oil or other sanctioned products from doing business in the US Although most countries disagree with the US withdrawal from the Iran deal and some reject such sanctions as an infringement on their own sovereignty, they are powerless. They cannot afford to lose access to dollar financing and the US economy and thus are forced against their will to do Washington’s bidding. Iranians pay the price And the Iranian people are paying the price. Oil exports and national income are dropping, inflation is rising and economic hardships are mounting. The Iranian rial lost more than 60 per cent of its value in the last year, eroding the savings of ordinary Iranians. Life is becoming increasingly difficult for working families struggling to make ends meet. There are indications that the new sanctions are inhibiting the flow of humanitarian goods and contributing to shortages in specialised medicines to treat ailments such as multiple sclerosis and cancer. Cargill and other global food giants have halted shipments to Iran because of the lack of available financing. Punishment of the Iranian people seems to be a deliberate policy. When asked recently how the administration expects sanctions to change the behaviour of the Iranian government, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo acknowledged they won’t be able to do that and instead suggested it’s up to the people to “change the government.” In other words, the pain of sanctions will force people to rise up and overthrow their leaders. This is as naïve as it is cynical. It reflects the long-discredited theory that sanctioned populations will direct their frustrations and anger at national leaders and demand a change in policy or the regime. Sanctions have never worked for this purpose. The more likely result is the classic “rally around the flag” effect. Iranians are critical of their government’s economic policies, but they also blame Trump for the hardships resulting from sanctions. Governments subjected to sanctions are adept at blaming economic hardships on their external adversaries, as Iran’s religious and elected leaders are doing now against the United States. Tehran is likely to respond to tightening sanctions by giving greater authority to companies associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, a major branch of the Iranian military, further empowering the very hard-line forces Washington claims to oppose. The White House is ignoring these realities and adding even more draconian sanctions, while threatening and making preparations for military strikes, hoping that economic pain and military pressure will make Iran’s leaders cry uncle. There is no sign of surrender yet from Tehran, nor is there likely to be, until the two sides pull back from the brink and agree to negotiate a diplomatic settlement. (David Cortright is Director of Policy Studies, Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame) (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Risk of shooting war with Iran grows after decades of economic warfare by the US

US President Donald Trump ordered "hard-hitting" financial sanctions Monday on Iran's supreme<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-protests-sea-lanes-for-other-countries-for-zero-compensation-we-dont-even-need-to-be-there-trump-230043"> leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei</a>, holding him "ultimately responsible" for the Islamic republic's destabilising activities.

"We will continue to increase pressure on Tehran," Trump said as he signed the order in the Oval Office. "Never can Iran have a nuclear weapon."

"We do not ask for conflict," he said, adding that depending on <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/iran-says-it-welcomes-any-defusion-of-tensions-in-gulf-region-report-229912">Iran's response the sanctions</a> could end tomorrow - or it "can also be years from now."

Meanwhile, in a joint statement, the United States, Britain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates renewed concern about Iran including over alleged attacks on oil tankers but held out hope for talks.

"We call on Iran to halt any further actions which threaten regional stability, and urge diplomatic solutions to de-escalate tensions," said the statement released by the United States on Monday.

Trump has said he wants negotiations with Iran, which has replied that he is insincere after walking away from an earlier denuclearisation deal and slapping punishing sanctions.

US President Donald Trump ordered "hard-hitting" financial sanctions Monday on Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, holding him "ultimately responsible" for the Islamic republic's destabilising activities.

US President Donald Trump ordered "hard-hitting" financial sanctions Monday on Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, holding him "ultimately responsible" for the Islamic republic's destabilising activities. "We will continue to increase pressure on Tehran," Trump said as he signed the order in the Oval Office. "Never can Iran have a nuclear weapon." "We do not ask for conflict," he said, adding that depending on Iran's response the sanctions could end tomorrow - or it "can also be years from now." Meanwhile, in a joint statement, the United States, Britain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates renewed concern about Iran including over alleged attacks on oil tankers but held out hope for talks. "We call on Iran to halt any further actions which threaten regional stability, and urge diplomatic solutions to de-escalate tensions," said the statement released by the United States on Monday. Trump has said he wants negotiations with Iran, which has replied that he is insincere after walking away from an earlier denuclearisation deal and slapping punishing sanctions.

Khamenei ultimately responsible, says Trump after fresh US sanctions on Iran

Amid the US-Iran crisis, President Trump in a tweet said America protests "<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/need-to-promote-maritime-security-in-strait-of-hormuz-says-pompeo-after-meeting-saudi-king-salman-230032">the shipping lanes for other countries</a> (many years) for zero compensation" while asserting that it does so for "zero compensation"

"China gets 91% of its Oil from the Strait, Japan 62%, &amp; many other countries likewise. All of these countries should be protecting their own ships on what has always been a dangerous journey," Trump said in a tweet.

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
China gets 91% of its Oil from the Straight, Japan 62%, &amp; many other countries likewise. So why are we protecting the shipping lanes for other countries (many years) for zero compensation. All of these countries should be protecting their own ships on what has always been....
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1143128642878410752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 24, 2019</a></blockquote>
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"We don’t even need to be there in that the US has just become (by far) the largest producer of energy anywhere in the world!"

The US request for Iran is very simple - no nuclear weapons and no further sponsoring of terror!" he said.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
....a dangerous journey. We don’t even need to be there in that the U.S. has just become (by far) the largest producer of Energy anywhere in the world! The U.S. request for Iran is very simple - No Nuclear Weapons and No Further Sponsoring of Terror!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1143128646162493441?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 24, 2019</a></blockquote>
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As tensions in the region racheted up, US secretary of state <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/iran-says-it-welcomes-any-defusion-of-tensions-in-gulf-region-report-229912">Mike Pompeo met Saudi King</a> Salman bin Abdulaziz as they discueed heightened tensions in the region after Iran brought down a US surveillance drone.

"Freedom of navigation is tantamount," he said in a tweet after meeting King Salman bin Abdulaziz.

Meanwhile, Iran hinted on Monday that it could be willing to discuss new concessions with Washington if the United States were to lift sanctions and offer new incentives.

"We welcome any reduction of tension, we do not want an increase in the tension and the problems after that," Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Seyyed Abbas Mousavi said.

"Is there any sanction left for America to impose that has not been imposed on us recently or in the last 40 years? And is there anything they have gained from this?," Mousavi asked.

As the US imposed a number of new sanctions, Iran said US cyber attacks on its military had failed after the US media reported last weekend that the United States launched cyber attacks disabling Iran's rocket launch systems.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, Abbas Mousavi, was quoted by ISNA news agency as saying on Monday that Tehran did not "want a rise of tensions and its consequences".

Amid the US-Iran crisis, President Trump in a tweet said America protests "the shipping lanes for other countries (many years) for zero compensation" while asserting that it does so for "zero compensation" "China gets 91% of its Oil from the Strait, Japan 62%, & many other countries likewise.

Amid the US-Iran crisis, President Trump in a tweet said America protests "the shipping lanes for other countries (many years) for zero compensation" while asserting that it does so for "zero compensation" "China gets 91% of its Oil from the Strait, Japan 62%, & many other countries likewise. All of these countries should be protecting their own ships on what has always been a dangerous journey," Trump said in a tweet. China gets 91% of its Oil from the Straight, Japan 62%, & many other countries likewise. So why are we protecting the shipping lanes for other countries (many years) for zero compensation. All of these countries should be protecting their own ships on what has always been.... — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 24, 2019 × "We don’t even need to be there in that the US has just become (by far) the largest producer of energy anywhere in the world!" The US request for Iran is very simple - no nuclear weapons and no further sponsoring of terror!" he said. ....a dangerous journey. We don’t even need to be there in that the U.S. has just become (by far) the largest producer of Energy anywhere in the world! The U.S. request for Iran is very simple - No Nuclear Weapons and No Further Sponsoring of Terror! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 24, 2019 × As tensions in the region racheted up, US secretary of state Mike Pompeo met Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz as they discueed heightened tensions in the region after Iran brought down a US surveillance drone. "Freedom of navigation is tantamount," he said in a tweet after meeting King Salman bin Abdulaziz. Meanwhile, Iran hinted on Monday that it could be willing to discuss new concessions with Washington if the United States were to lift sanctions and offer new incentives. "We welcome any reduction of tension, we do not want an increase in the tension and the problems after that," Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Seyyed Abbas Mousavi said. "Is there any sanction left for America to impose that has not been imposed on us recently or in the last 40 years? And is there anything they have gained from this?," Mousavi asked. As the US imposed a number of new sanctions, Iran said US cyber attacks on its military had failed after the US media reported last weekend that the United States launched cyber attacks disabling Iran's rocket launch systems. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, Abbas Mousavi, was quoted by ISNA news agency as saying on Monday that Tehran did not "want a rise of tensions and its consequences".

US protests sea lanes for other countries for zero compensation, we don’t even need to be there: Trump

Last week was tense as the US and Iran almost went at loggerheads with each other. The relationship between the two countries has deteriorated since the 1970s when Irani revolutionaries kicked out US-backed shah and took the US embassy hostage.&nbsp;

In 2015, the US signed a deal to stop Iran’s nuclear agenda but President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal completely saying that it wasn’t enough and instead, implemented heavy sanctions that are squeezing Iran’s economy. Tensions have reached a peak as of last week after weeks of threats from Iran against US troops. On Thursday (June 20), Iran gunned down an unmanned military drone that it said was in its airspace. The US denies that it was intruding on Iranian territory. Soon after, it was found that the USA had called for a retaliatory strike against Iran- literally ships and places in place and ready to go. This was called off. But certainly kept the world on a jittery edge. And in particular, India; who should be gravely concerned for two major reasons.&nbsp;

First, this will exponentially increase oil cost for India. With a width of only 35 nautical miles, the Strait of Hormuz is the only passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It is through this narrow strip of sea that 20 per cent of the world global crude and 25 per cent of the world LNG (liquefied natural gas) goes through. 
 
Additionally, Iran has been one of India’s top energy suppliers (crude oil) for over a decade. India also purchases natural gas from Iran. 
 
Therefore, India is dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for its energy imports. Continued tensions at this level between the US and Iran could prove difficult for India’s economy; especially at a time when Modi’s NDA is set to increase federal spending on energising India’s economy. In fact, the account of Iran allegedly shooting down the US drone in&nbsp;its airspace earlier this week has already led to increased oil prices; globally, a five per cent spike.&nbsp;

Exactly how does India get affected with higher oil prices? India’s oil and petrol prices have inherently remained in the low range without volatility. This has allowed the central government to spend on other areas like affordable housing, healthcare, electricity and multiple Swachh Bharat initiatives at a time when the GDP requires this diverse spending. With volatile oil prices, consumers will be pinched and a significant chunk of government spending and reserves will be forced to go to oil. Every $10 per barrel increase in crude oil takes away 0.4 per cent of GDP by increasing India’s current account deficit by about $12 billion. Higher oil prices also have other consequences to a rapidly growing economy. Inevitably, the price of India’s imports will increase, foreign exchange reserves will deplete and the value of the rupee gets goes down.&nbsp;

The second major reason why India needs to be concerned about US-Iran tensions is that our agenda for a robust foreign policy would be hindered should pressure continue to rise. India carries excellent bilateral relations with Iran. The two nations share historical and cultural links with each other. They also cooperate on trade, oil imports and the development and operationalisation of the strategic Chabahar Port; an $85 million project. In the year 2018-19, total bilateral trade between India and Iran was over $15,600 million. Furthermore, in order to enhance India’s maritime strategy, PM Modi signed an agreement with Iran and Afghanistan to develop the Chabahar Port as a passage for increased trade, collaboration and transit. Should tensions escalate between the USA and Iran, no single country will be able to handle the magnitude and impact of conflict around the Gulf area. This could weather down the strong bilateral relations PM Modi has worked so hard to build.&nbsp;

Recently, India had also stopped importing Iranian oil in order to comply with US sanctions being imposed on Tehran. Indian firms involved in Iranian iron, steel, mining and automobile manufacturing sectors are therefore getting directly hit with increased US sanctions. And with continued hits on these sectors, infrastructure and development projects for the Chabahar port will also be adversely affected. &nbsp;

India is currently in a gravely precarious situation. If we completely stop taking oil from Iran, it impacts bilateral relations and trade. If we give in to American pressure, we plunder our own autonomy and risk as strong of a military relationship with the United States who called us a priority ally not too long ago. It is unlikely that India is going to defy the USA for Iran. But at the same time, we diminish our own autonomy; something that PM Modi’s NDA government has worked hard to build.&nbsp;

For these reasons, it is essential that India must play a more active leadership role in the US-Iran conflict de-escalation initiatives. In particular, India must work to get a formal or informal exemption from America to continue to get oil from Iran. If that is not possible, India can increase investment in the Chabahar Port. This maintains a positive relationship with Iran and does not defy the United States. 
 
The bottom line is that even though a US-Iran war is unlikely, peaking tensions only hinder India’s foreign policy, relations and economic activities. Consequently, the time and occasion to step up for India is now.&nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp;

Last week was tense as the US and Iran almost went at loggerheads with each other. The relationship between the two countries has deteriorated since the 1970s when Irani revolutionaries kicked out US-backed shah and took the US embassy hostage.

Last week was tense as the US and Iran almost went at loggerheads with each other. The relationship between the two countries has deteriorated since the 1970s when Irani revolutionaries kicked out US-backed shah and took the US embassy hostage. In 2015, the US signed a deal to stop Iran’s nuclear agenda but President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal completely saying that it wasn’t enough and instead, implemented heavy sanctions that are squeezing Iran’s economy. Tensions have reached a peak as of last week after weeks of threats from Iran against US troops. On Thursday (June 20), Iran gunned down an unmanned military drone that it said was in its airspace. The US denies that it was intruding on Iranian territory. Soon after, it was found that the USA had called for a retaliatory strike against Iran- literally ships and places in place and ready to go. This was called off. But certainly kept the world on a jittery edge. And in particular, India; who should be gravely concerned for two major reasons. First, this will exponentially increase oil cost for India. With a width of only 35 nautical miles, the Strait of Hormuz is the only passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It is through this narrow strip of sea that 20 per cent of the world global crude and 25 per cent of the world LNG (liquefied natural gas) goes through. Additionally, Iran has been one of India’s top energy suppliers (crude oil) for over a decade. India also purchases natural gas from Iran. Therefore, India is dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for its energy imports. Continued tensions at this level between the US and Iran could prove difficult for India’s economy; especially at a time when Modi’s NDA is set to increase federal spending on energising India’s economy. In fact, the account of Iran allegedly shooting down the US drone in its airspace earlier this week has already led to increased oil prices; globally, a five per cent spike. Exactly how does India get affected with higher oil prices? India’s oil and petrol prices have inherently remained in the low range without volatility. This has allowed the central government to spend on other areas like affordable housing, healthcare, electricity and multiple Swachh Bharat initiatives at a time when the GDP requires this diverse spending. With volatile oil prices, consumers will be pinched and a significant chunk of government spending and reserves will be forced to go to oil. Every $10 per barrel increase in crude oil takes away 0.4 per cent of GDP by increasing India’s current account deficit by about $12 billion. Higher oil prices also have other consequences to a rapidly growing economy. Inevitably, the price of India’s imports will increase, foreign exchange reserves will deplete and the value of the rupee gets goes down. The second major reason why India needs to be concerned about US-Iran tensions is that our agenda for a robust foreign policy would be hindered should pressure continue to rise. India carries excellent bilateral relations with Iran. The two nations share historical and cultural links with each other. They also cooperate on trade, oil imports and the development and operationalisation of the strategic Chabahar Port; an $85 million project. In the year 2018-19, total bilateral trade between India and Iran was over $15,600 million. Furthermore, in order to enhance India’s maritime strategy, PM Modi signed an agreement with Iran and Afghanistan to develop the Chabahar Port as a passage for increased trade, collaboration and transit. Should tensions escalate between the USA and Iran, no single country will be able to handle the magnitude and impact of conflict around the Gulf area. This could weather down the strong bilateral relations PM Modi has worked so hard to build. Recently, India had also stopped importing Iranian oil in order to comply with US sanctions being imposed on Tehran. Indian firms involved in Iranian iron, steel, mining and automobile manufacturing sectors are therefore getting directly hit with increased US sanctions. And with continued hits on these sectors, infrastructure and development projects for the Chabahar port will also be adversely affected. India is currently in a gravely precarious situation. If we completely stop taking oil from Iran, it impacts bilateral relations and trade. If we give in to American pressure, we plunder our own autonomy and risk as strong of a military relationship with the United States who called us a priority ally not too long ago. It is unlikely that India is going to defy the USA for Iran. But at the same time, we diminish our own autonomy; something that PM Modi’s NDA government has worked hard to build. For these reasons, it is essential that India must play a more active leadership role in the US-Iran conflict de-escalation initiatives. In particular, India must work to get a formal or informal exemption from America to continue to get oil from Iran. If that is not possible, India can increase investment in the Chabahar Port. This maintains a positive relationship with Iran and does not defy the United States. The bottom line is that even though a US-Iran war is unlikely, peaking tensions only hinder India’s foreign policy, relations and economic activities. Consequently, the time and occasion to step up for India is now. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

US-Iran tensions and why India needs to step up its game

Mike Pompeo has met Saudi Arabia’s king and crown prince for talks as the US secretary of state seeks to promote an anti-Iran alliance at a time of mounting tensions in the region.

Mike Pompeo arrives in Saudi Arabia

US National Security Advisor John Bolton warned Tehran on Sunday of misinterpreting as "weakness" President Donald Trump's <a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/last-minute-iran-strike-reversal-showcases-trumps-confusion-on-war-229524">last-minute cancellation</a> of a retaliatory <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/iran-lawmakers-chant-death-to-america-as-us-called-terrorist-229678">strike on Iran</a>.

"Neither Iran nor any other hostile actor should mistake US prudence and discretion for weakness," said Bolton ahead of a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem.

"No one has granted them a hunting license in the Middle East," he added.

"Our military is rebuilt new and ready to go," said Bolton, after Trump <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/trump-says-he-aborted-retaliatory-strike-to-spare-iranian-lives-229374">called off a planned attack on Iran</a> in response to Tehran downing a US drone on Thursday.

Also read:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/iran-lawmakers-chant-death-to-america-as-us-called-terrorist-229678">Iran lawmakers chant 'Death to America' as US called 'terrorist'</a>

Bolton, who was in Israel for a pre-scheduled trilateral meeting with his Israeli and Russian counterparts, Meir Ben-Shabbat and Nikolai Patrushev, noted that the "current circumstances in the region make our conversations even more timely."

In a Saturday tweet, Trump had pledged to hit Iran with "major" new sanctions on Monday. 
 
Washington has imposed a series of measures against Tehran since Trump pulled out of a landmark nuclear accord between Iran and world powers last year.

"Iran can never have nuclear weapons, not against the USA and not against the world," said Bolton.

Iran says it is not seeking a nuclear weapon and its programme is for civilian purposes only.

"We expect that the new sanctions president Trump referred to, in preparation for some weeks, will be announced publicly on Monday. Stay tuned," said the top US advisor.

Last month, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Tehran would stop observing restrictions set by the nuclear accord on its stocks of enriched uranium and heavy water.

Speaking alongside Bolton, Netanyahu did not comment on the cancelled US strike on Israel's archfoe Iran but he welcomed the expected new sanctions.

Tehran has long been in a "campaign of aggression" against its Arab neighbours, the US and Israel, Netanyahu said, and recent tensions were not a result of increasing US pressures.

"Those who describe the recent actions as somehow opening a hornets' nest are living on another planet," he said.

"What's new is that now, thanks to crippling American sanctions, Iran is facing unprecedented economic pressure as a result of its aggression."

Israel is believed to be the Middle East's sole nuclear power but it has long refused to confirm or deny that it has such weapons.

US National Security Advisor John Bolton warned Tehran on Sunday of misinterpreting as "weakness" President Donald Trump's last-minute cancellation of a retaliatory strike on Iran.

US National Security Advisor John Bolton warned Tehran on Sunday of misinterpreting as "weakness" President Donald Trump's last-minute cancellation of a retaliatory strike on Iran. "Neither Iran nor any other hostile actor should mistake US prudence and discretion for weakness," said Bolton ahead of a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem. "No one has granted them a hunting license in the Middle East," he added. "Our military is rebuilt new and ready to go," said Bolton, after Trump called off a planned attack on Iran in response to Tehran downing a US drone on Thursday. Also read: Iran lawmakers chant 'Death to America' as US called 'terrorist' Bolton, who was in Israel for a pre-scheduled trilateral meeting with his Israeli and Russian counterparts, Meir Ben-Shabbat and Nikolai Patrushev, noted that the "current circumstances in the region make our conversations even more timely." In a Saturday tweet, Trump had pledged to hit Iran with "major" new sanctions on Monday. Washington has imposed a series of measures against Tehran since Trump pulled out of a landmark nuclear accord between Iran and world powers last year. "Iran can never have nuclear weapons, not against the USA and not against the world," said Bolton. Iran says it is not seeking a nuclear weapon and its programme is for civilian purposes only. "We expect that the new sanctions president Trump referred to, in preparation for some weeks, will be announced publicly on Monday. Stay tuned," said the top US advisor. Last month, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Tehran would stop observing restrictions set by the nuclear accord on its stocks of enriched uranium and heavy water. Speaking alongside Bolton, Netanyahu did not comment on the cancelled US strike on Israel's archfoe Iran but he welcomed the expected new sanctions. Tehran has long been in a "campaign of aggression" against its Arab neighbours, the US and Israel, Netanyahu said, and recent tensions were not a result of increasing US pressures. "Those who describe the recent actions as somehow opening a hornets' nest are living on another planet," he said. "What's new is that now, thanks to crippling American sanctions, Iran is facing unprecedented economic pressure as a result of its aggression." Israel is believed to be the Middle East's sole nuclear power but it has long refused to confirm or deny that it has such weapons.

US army is ready to go, don't mistake our discretion for weakness: US National Security Advisor John Bolton tells Iran

Last-minute Iran strike reversal showcases Trump's confusion on war

Iran warned the United States on Saturday that any <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/will-firmly-confront-any-aggression-or-threat-by-america-iran-229442">aggression against the Islamic republic</a> would have serious consequences for US interests across the Middle East.

"Firing one bullet towards Iran will set fire to the interests of America and its allies", armed forces general staff spokesman Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi told the Tasnim news agency.

"Today, the situation in the region is to Iran’s advantage.

"If the enemy - especially America and its allies in the region - make the military mistake of shooting the powder keg on which America's interests lie, the region will be set on fire," Shekarchi warned.

President Donald Trump said Friday that the United States was "<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/trump-says-he-aborted-retaliatory-strike-to-spare-iranian-lives-229374">cocked &amp; loaded" to strike Iran</a> but pulled back at the last minute as it would not have been a "proportionate" response to Tehran's shooting down of an unmanned US drone.

Watch: Trump says, 'not looking for war with Iran'

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The downing of the drone - which Tehran insists violated its airspace, a claim Washington denies - has seen tensions between the two countries spike after a series of attacks on oil tankers the US has blamed on Iran.

Under pressure to respond to the high-stakes incident near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Trump said the US was prepared to hit "3 different sites" Thursday night but that he scrapped the strikes "10 minutes" before they were to have been launched.

"I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General," the president tweeted, saying he concluded it would not have been "proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone."

According to excerpts of an interview with NBC's "Meet the Press" conducted Friday morning at the White House, Trump said he had not given final approval to strikes against Iran, and that no planes were in the air.

"But they would have been pretty soon. And things would have happened to a point where you wouldn't turn back or couldn't turn back," he said, adding that he did not want war with Iran, but if it came to pass, there would be "obliteration like you've never seen before."

The US president had struck a combative tone in initial comments Thursday about Iran shooting down the Global Hawk surveillance aircraft, but as the pre-dawn incident whipped up fears of open conflict, Trump moved to dial back tensions.

Iran vowed Friday to defend its borders after downing the drone, with the commander of the aerospace arm of its elite Revolutionary Guards saying the aircraft was warned twice before it was engaged over the Gulf of Oman.

And it denied a report that Trump had warned it via Oman of an impending attack unless it was willing to negotiate.

The US special representative on Iran, Brian Hook, accused Tehran of rejecting diplomatic overtures to deescalate regional tensions.

"Iran needs to meet diplomacy with diplomacy, not military force," Hook told reporters in Saudi Arabia.

Iran warned the United States on Saturday that any aggression against the Islamic republic would have serious consequences for US interests across the Middle East.

Iran warned the United States on Saturday that any aggression against the Islamic republic would have serious consequences for US interests across the Middle East. "Firing one bullet towards Iran will set fire to the interests of America and its allies", armed forces general staff spokesman Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi told the Tasnim news agency. "Today, the situation in the region is to Iran’s advantage. "If the enemy - especially America and its allies in the region - make the military mistake of shooting the powder keg on which America's interests lie, the region will be set on fire," Shekarchi warned. President Donald Trump said Friday that the United States was "cocked & loaded" to strike Iran but pulled back at the last minute as it would not have been a "proportionate" response to Tehran's shooting down of an unmanned US drone. Watch: Trump says, 'not looking for war with Iran' The downing of the drone - which Tehran insists violated its airspace, a claim Washington denies - has seen tensions between the two countries spike after a series of attacks on oil tankers the US has blamed on Iran. Under pressure to respond to the high-stakes incident near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Trump said the US was prepared to hit "3 different sites" Thursday night but that he scrapped the strikes "10 minutes" before they were to have been launched. "I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General," the president tweeted, saying he concluded it would not have been "proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone." According to excerpts of an interview with NBC's "Meet the Press" conducted Friday morning at the White House, Trump said he had not given final approval to strikes against Iran, and that no planes were in the air. "But they would have been pretty soon. And things would have happened to a point where you wouldn't turn back or couldn't turn back," he said, adding that he did not want war with Iran, but if it came to pass, there would be "obliteration like you've never seen before." The US president had struck a combative tone in initial comments Thursday about Iran shooting down the Global Hawk surveillance aircraft, but as the pre-dawn incident whipped up fears of open conflict, Trump moved to dial back tensions. Iran vowed Friday to defend its borders after downing the drone, with the commander of the aerospace arm of its elite Revolutionary Guards saying the aircraft was warned twice before it was engaged over the Gulf of Oman. And it denied a report that Trump had warned it via Oman of an impending attack unless it was willing to negotiate. The US special representative on Iran, Brian Hook, accused Tehran of rejecting diplomatic overtures to deescalate regional tensions. "Iran needs to meet diplomacy with diplomacy, not military force," Hook told reporters in Saudi Arabia.

Firing one bullet towards Iran will set fire to America's interests: Iran

US President Donald Trump spoke on Friday to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about Middle East stability and the oil market, the White House said, after tensions with <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/we-were-cocked-and-loaded-to-retaliate-i-stopped-it-10-minutes-before-striking-iran-trump-229293">Iran prompted a rise in oil prices</a>.

"The two leaders discussed Saudi Arabia’s critical role in ensuring stability in the Middle East and in the global oil market. They also discussed the threat posed by the Iranian regime’s escalatory behavior," White House spokesman Hogan Gidley said in a statement.

The phone call took place in the wake of Iran's shooting down of an <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/iran-needs-to-meet-diplomacy-with-diplomacy-not-military-force-us-229256">unmanned US drone in the Gulf region</a>, which prompted Trump to prepare but ultimately hold back from launching a retaliatory attack.

There was no word from the White House statement on whether Trump raised with the crown prince the death last October of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

A 100-page report by the UNspecial rapporteur on extrajudicial executions, Agnes Callamard, earlier this week accused Saudi Arabia of a “deliberate, premeditated execution” and said the crown prince should be investigated for it.

Agnes Callamard, the UN special rapporteur on extrajudicial executions, had called for countries to widen sanctions to include the Crown Prince and his personal assets, until and unless he can prove he has no responsibility.

Khashoggi, a critic of the prince and a Washington Post columnist, was last seen at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2 where he was to receive papers ahead of his wedding.

His body was dismembered and removed from the building, the Saudi prosecutor has said, and his remains have not been found.

Callamard went to Turkey earlier this year with a team of forensic and legal experts and said she received evidence from Turkish authorities. 
&nbsp;

US President Donald Trump spoke on Friday to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about Middle East stability and the oil market, the White House said, after tensions with Iran prompted a rise in oil prices.

US President Donald Trump spoke on Friday to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about Middle East stability and the oil market, the White House said, after tensions with Iran prompted a rise in oil prices. "The two leaders discussed Saudi Arabia’s critical role in ensuring stability in the Middle East and in the global oil market. They also discussed the threat posed by the Iranian regime’s escalatory behavior," White House spokesman Hogan Gidley said in a statement. The phone call took place in the wake of Iran's shooting down of an unmanned US drone in the Gulf region, which prompted Trump to prepare but ultimately hold back from launching a retaliatory attack. There was no word from the White House statement on whether Trump raised with the crown prince the death last October of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. A 100-page report by the UNspecial rapporteur on extrajudicial executions, Agnes Callamard, earlier this week accused Saudi Arabia of a “deliberate, premeditated execution” and said the crown prince should be investigated for it. Agnes Callamard, the UN special rapporteur on extrajudicial executions, had called for countries to widen sanctions to include the Crown Prince and his personal assets, until and unless he can prove he has no responsibility. Khashoggi, a critic of the prince and a Washington Post columnist, was last seen at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2 where he was to receive papers ahead of his wedding. His body was dismembered and removed from the building, the Saudi prosecutor has said, and his remains have not been found. Callamard went to Turkey earlier this year with a team of forensic and legal experts and said she received evidence from Turkish authorities.

Trump spoke to Crown Prince Salman on Middle East stability, oil market: White House

After reports said US planes were in the air ready to retaliate against <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/iran-needs-to-meet-diplomacy-with-diplomacy-not-military-force-us-229256">Iran after it shot down a US drone</a>, President Trump confirmed it in a tweet asserting that he stopped the strike ten minutes before even as the planes were "cocked and loaded to retaliate last night on three different sights."

"I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it," <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/had-received-message-from-trump-through-oman-warning-attack-was-imminent-iran-officials-229209">the US president said, adding</a>,"not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. I am in no hurry, our military is rebuilt, new, &nbsp;and ready to go, by far the best in the world."

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....On Monday they shot down an unmanned drone flying in International Waters. We were cocked &amp; loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not....
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1142055388965212161?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 21, 2019</a></blockquote>
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"Sanctions are biting and more added last night. Iran can never have nuclear weapons, not against the USA, and not against the world!" he said.

Trump blamed ex-president Obama for the "terrible deal" with Iran who he alleged, "gave them $150 billion plus $1.8 billion in cash". &nbsp;"Iran was in big trouble and he bailed them out. Gave them a free path to nuclear weapons, and soon instead of saying thank you, Iran yelled death to America."

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President Obama made a desperate and terrible deal with Iran - Gave them 150 Billion Dollars plus I.8 Billion Dollars in CASH! Iran was in big trouble and he bailed them out. Gave them a free path to Nuclear Weapons, and SOON. Instead of saying thank you, Iran yelled.....
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1142055375186907136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 21, 2019</a></blockquote>
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....Death to America. I terminated deal, which was not even ratified by Congress, and imposed strong sanctions. They are a much weakened nation today than at the beginning of my Presidency, when they were causing major problems throughout the Middle East. Now they are Bust!....
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1142055383193804801?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 21, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Iran meanwhile said it had &nbsp;"indisputable" evidence that a US drone it had shot down had violated its airspace.

Deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told Swiss ambassador, Markus Leitner, that "even some parts of the drone's wreckage have been retrieved from Iran"s territorial waters."

Foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had said on Thursday that Iran would go to the United Nations to prove that the drone had entered its airspace before being shot down.

Brigadier General Amirali Hajizadeh, the commander of the aerospace arm of the Revolutionary Guards said that Iran had given two warnings before downing the US reconnaissance drone over the Gulf of Oman.

"Twice we... sent warnings," Brigadier General Amirali Hajizadeh said, without specifying the means.

"Unfortunately, when they failed to reply... and the aircraft made no change to its trajectory... we were obliged to shoot it down."

<div class="videoWrapper trancodeVideo"><iframe allowfullscreen="" autoplay="1" class="includeVideo" frameborder="0" height="350" src="https://www.wionews.com/videos/trump-warns-iran-of-imminent-attack-229224/embed" style="width:100%;max-width:560px;" width="560"></iframe></div>

After reports said US planes were in the air ready to retaliate against Iran after it shot down a US drone, President Trump confirmed it in a tweet asserting that he stopped the strike ten minutes before even as the planes were "cocked and loaded to retaliate last night on three different sights.

After reports said US planes were in the air ready to retaliate against Iran after it shot down a US drone, President Trump confirmed it in a tweet asserting that he stopped the strike ten minutes before even as the planes were "cocked and loaded to retaliate last night on three different sights." "I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it," the US president said, adding,"not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. I am in no hurry, our military is rebuilt, new, and ready to go, by far the best in the world." ....On Monday they shot down an unmanned drone flying in International Waters. We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not.... — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 21, 2019 × "Sanctions are biting and more added last night. Iran can never have nuclear weapons, not against the USA, and not against the world!" he said. Trump blamed ex-president Obama for the "terrible deal" with Iran who he alleged, "gave them $150 billion plus $1.8 billion in cash". "Iran was in big trouble and he bailed them out. Gave them a free path to nuclear weapons, and soon instead of saying thank you, Iran yelled death to America." President Obama made a desperate and terrible deal with Iran - Gave them 150 Billion Dollars plus I.8 Billion Dollars in CASH! Iran was in big trouble and he bailed them out. Gave them a free path to Nuclear Weapons, and SOON. Instead of saying thank you, Iran yelled..... — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 21, 2019 × ....Death to America. I terminated deal, which was not even ratified by Congress, and imposed strong sanctions. They are a much weakened nation today than at the beginning of my Presidency, when they were causing major problems throughout the Middle East. Now they are Bust!.... — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 21, 2019 × Iran meanwhile said it had "indisputable" evidence that a US drone it had shot down had violated its airspace. Deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told Swiss ambassador, Markus Leitner, that "even some parts of the drone's wreckage have been retrieved from Iran"s territorial waters." Foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had said on Thursday that Iran would go to the United Nations to prove that the drone had entered its airspace before being shot down. Brigadier General Amirali Hajizadeh, the commander of the aerospace arm of the Revolutionary Guards said that Iran had given two warnings before downing the US reconnaissance drone over the Gulf of Oman. "Twice we... sent warnings," Brigadier General Amirali Hajizadeh said, without specifying the means. "Unfortunately, when they failed to reply... and the aircraft made no change to its trajectory... we were obliged to shoot it down."

We were cocked and loaded to retaliate, I stopped it 10 minutes before striking Iran: Trump

Iran said Thursday it would go to the UN to prove that a<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/iran-made-a-very-big-mistake-says-trump-after-revolutionary-guard-shoots-down-us-drone-229027"> US spy drone it shot down</a> had entered Iranian airspace, contrary to Washington's claims.

"We'll take this new aggression to #UN &amp; show that the US is lying about international waters," foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted, after a US general said the drone was taken down some 34 kilometres (21 miles) off the Iranian coast.

"The US wages #EconomicTerrorism on Iran, has conducted covert action against us &amp; now encroaches on our territory," he wrote.

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The US wages <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/EconomicTerrorism?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#EconomicTerrorism</a> on Iran, has conducted covert action against us &amp; now encroaches on our territory. 
 
We don't seek war, but will zealously defend our skies, land &amp; waters. 
 
We'll take this new aggression to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UN?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UN</a> &amp; show that the US is lying about international waters
— Javad Zarif (@JZarif) <a href="https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1141731145270386693?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 20, 2019</a></blockquote>
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"We don't seek war, but will zealously defend our skies, land &amp; waters."

With tensions soaring between the two countries following a <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/irans-borders-represent-our-red-line-revolutionary-guard-head-hossein-salami-228935">series of attacks against tankers</a> in the Gulf, the Pentagon confirmed a US surveillance drone had been shot down by Iranian forces.

But it insisted the unmanned aircraft was in international airspace.

The Pentagon released a graphic pinpointing the position of the drone on a map of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic passage through which some 35 percent of the world's seaborne oil passes.

The downing with an Iranian surface-to-air missile "occurred in the vicinity of established air corridors between Dubai, UAE, and Oman", said Lieutenant General Joseph Guastella, who commands US air forces in the region.

Iran said the "US-made Global Hawk surveillance drone" was hit with a missile "after violating Iranian air space" over the waters of Hormozgan province on the Strait of Hormuz. 
&nbsp;&nbsp;

Iran said Thursday it would go to the UN to prove that a US spy drone it shot down had entered Iranian airspace, contrary to Washington's claims. "We'll take this new aggression to #UN & show that the US is lying about international waters," foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted, after a US general said the drone was taken down some 34 kilometres (21 miles) off the Iranian coast.

Iran said Thursday it would go to the UN to prove that a US spy drone it shot down had entered Iranian airspace, contrary to Washington's claims. "We'll take this new aggression to #UN & show that the US is lying about international waters," foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted, after a US general said the drone was taken down some 34 kilometres (21 miles) off the Iranian coast. "The US wages #EconomicTerrorism on Iran, has conducted covert action against us & now encroaches on our territory," he wrote. The US wages #EconomicTerrorism on Iran, has conducted covert action against us & now encroaches on our territory. We don't seek war, but will zealously defend our skies, land & waters. We'll take this new aggression to #UN & show that the US is lying about international waters — Javad Zarif (@JZarif) June 20, 2019 × "We don't seek war, but will zealously defend our skies, land & waters." With tensions soaring between the two countries following a series of attacks against tankers in the Gulf, the Pentagon confirmed a US surveillance drone had been shot down by Iranian forces. But it insisted the unmanned aircraft was in international airspace. The Pentagon released a graphic pinpointing the position of the drone on a map of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic passage through which some 35 percent of the world's seaborne oil passes. The downing with an Iranian surface-to-air missile "occurred in the vicinity of established air corridors between Dubai, UAE, and Oman", said Lieutenant General Joseph Guastella, who commands US air forces in the region. Iran said the "US-made Global Hawk surveillance drone" was hit with a missile "after violating Iranian air space" over the waters of Hormozgan province on the Strait of Hormuz.

US lying about drone strike in international waters, will take it to UN: Iran

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran reportedly shot down a <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/gulf-of-oman-tanker-attacks-un-chief-pushes-for-an-independent-probe-as-iran-rejects-us-blame-227226">US</a> Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk spy drone, according to the state-run IRNA news agency.

The news agency reported that the incident took place in the coastal Hormozgan province, facing the Persian Gulf.

In a statement issued by the IRGC said the US surveillance drone was brought down by its Air Force near the Kouh-e Mobarak region — which sits in the central district of Jask County — after the aircraft violated Iranian airspace.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is Iran's premier military force.

The United States Armed Forces&nbsp;spokesman, declined to comment when asked if a US spy drone was shot down.

The report comes amid increased tensions between US and Iran with Washington announcing a new deployment of <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-approves-deployment-of-1000-additional-troops-to-middle-east-amid-iran-tensions-228136">additional forces of 1000</a> to the Middle East.

The US has accused Iran of being behind a series of operations against oil tankers in highly sensitive Gulf waters.&nbsp;

Tehran has denied involvement and instead suggested Washington could be the author of the attacks, using the operation to justify force against Iran.

Hormozgan borders the Strait of Hormuz, where the tanker attacks took place.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran reportedly shot down a US Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk spy drone, according to the state-run IRNA news agency.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran reportedly shot down a US Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk spy drone, according to the state-run IRNA news agency. The news agency reported that the incident took place in the coastal Hormozgan province, facing the Persian Gulf. In a statement issued by the IRGC said the US surveillance drone was brought down by its Air Force near the Kouh-e Mobarak region — which sits in the central district of Jask County — after the aircraft violated Iranian airspace. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is Iran's premier military force. The United States Armed Forces spokesman, declined to comment when asked if a US spy drone was shot down. The report comes amid increased tensions between US and Iran with Washington announcing a new deployment of additional forces of 1000 to the Middle East. The US has accused Iran of being behind a series of operations against oil tankers in highly sensitive Gulf waters. Tehran has denied involvement and instead suggested Washington could be the author of the attacks, using the operation to justify force against Iran. Hormozgan borders the Strait of Hormuz, where the tanker attacks took place.

Iran claims shooting down American drone, US military declines to comment

US military releases new pictures of Oman Gulf terror attack; says it incriminate Iran

President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday Iran would not wage war against any nation, sounding a note of restraint after the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-approves-deployment-of-1000-additional-troops-to-middle-east-amid-iran-tensions-228136">United States announced more troop deployments</a> to the Middle East.

Fears of a confrontation between Iran and its long-time foe the United States have mounted since Thursday when two oil tankers were attacked near the strategic Strait of Hormuz shipping lane, which Washington blamed on Tehran.

Iran denied involvement in the attacks and said on Monday it would soon breach limits on how much-enriched uranium it can stockpile under a 2015 nuclear deal, which had sought to limit its nuclear capabilities.

Exceeding the uranium cap at the heart of the accord would prompt a diplomatic crisis, forcing the other signatories, which include China, Russia and European powers, to confront Iran.

The standoff drew a call for caution from China. Its top diplomat warned that the world should not open a "Pandora's Box" in the Middle East, as he denounced US pressure on Iran and called on it not to drop out of the landmark nuclear deal.

Russia <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/russia-warns-us-over-extra-troop-deployment-to-middle-east-228294">urged restraint on all sides</a>.

In a speech, Rouhani dismissed US efforts to isolate Iran as unsuccessful and suggested the US administration of President Donald Trump was inexperienced in international affairs.

But he said Iran did not seek conflict.

"Iran will not wage war against any nation," Rouhani said in a speech broadcast live on state TV. "Despite all of the Americans' efforts in the region and their desire to cut off our ties with all of the world and their desire to keep Iran secluded, they have been unsuccessful."

On Monday, Iranian officials made several assertive comments about security, including the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, who said Tehran was responsible for security in the Gulf and urged US forces to leave the region.

Sanctions tightened

Acting US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan on Monday announced the deployment of about 1,000 more troops to the Middle East for what he said were defensive purposes, citing concerns about a threat from Iran.

The new US deployment is in addition to a 1,500-troop increase announced last month in response to tanker attacks in May. Washington previously tightened sanctions, ordering all countries and companies to halt imports of Iranian oil or be banished from the global financial system.

Iran's announcement on Monday that it would soon breach limits on how much-enriched uranium it can stockpile under the deal was denounced by a White House National Security Council spokesman as "nuclear blackmail."

The move further undermines the nuclear pact, but Rouhani said on Monday the collapse of the deal would not be in the interests of the region or the world.

The nuclear deal seeks to head off any pathway to an Iranian nuclear bomb in return for the removal of most international sanctions.

Speaking in Beijing, Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi said the United States should not use "extreme pressure" to resolve issues with Iran.

China 'very concerned'

Wang told reporters China, a close energy partner of Iran, was "of course, very concerned" about the situation in the Gulf and with Iran, and called on all sides to ease tension.

"We call on all sides to remain rational and exercise restraint, and not take any escalatory actions that irritate regional tensions, and not open a Pandora's box," Wang said.

"In particular, the US side should alter its extreme pressure methods," Wang said. "Any unilateral behaviour has no basis in international law. Not only will it not resolve the problem, it will only create an even greater crisis."

Wang also said the Iran nuclear deal was the only feasible way to resolve its nuclear issue, and urged Iran to be prudent.

European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said the EU would only react to any breach if the International Atomic Energy Agency formally identified one.

The Trump administration says the deal, negotiated by Democratic President Barack Obama, was flawed as it is not permanent, does not address Iran's missile program and does not punish it for waging proxy wars in other Middle East countries.

President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday Iran would not wage war against any nation, sounding a note of restraint after the United States announced more troop deployments to the Middle East.

President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday Iran would not wage war against any nation, sounding a note of restraint after the United States announced more troop deployments to the Middle East. Fears of a confrontation between Iran and its long-time foe the United States have mounted since Thursday when two oil tankers were attacked near the strategic Strait of Hormuz shipping lane, which Washington blamed on Tehran. Iran denied involvement in the attacks and said on Monday it would soon breach limits on how much-enriched uranium it can stockpile under a 2015 nuclear deal, which had sought to limit its nuclear capabilities. Exceeding the uranium cap at the heart of the accord would prompt a diplomatic crisis, forcing the other signatories, which include China, Russia and European powers, to confront Iran. The standoff drew a call for caution from China. Its top diplomat warned that the world should not open a "Pandora's Box" in the Middle East, as he denounced US pressure on Iran and called on it not to drop out of the landmark nuclear deal. Russia urged restraint on all sides. In a speech, Rouhani dismissed US efforts to isolate Iran as unsuccessful and suggested the US administration of President Donald Trump was inexperienced in international affairs. But he said Iran did not seek conflict. "Iran will not wage war against any nation," Rouhani said in a speech broadcast live on state TV. "Despite all of the Americans' efforts in the region and their desire to cut off our ties with all of the world and their desire to keep Iran secluded, they have been unsuccessful." On Monday, Iranian officials made several assertive comments about security, including the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, who said Tehran was responsible for security in the Gulf and urged US forces to leave the region. Sanctions tightened Acting US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan on Monday announced the deployment of about 1,000 more troops to the Middle East for what he said were defensive purposes, citing concerns about a threat from Iran. The new US deployment is in addition to a 1,500-troop increase announced last month in response to tanker attacks in May. Washington previously tightened sanctions, ordering all countries and companies to halt imports of Iranian oil or be banished from the global financial system. Iran's announcement on Monday that it would soon breach limits on how much-enriched uranium it can stockpile under the deal was denounced by a White House National Security Council spokesman as "nuclear blackmail." The move further undermines the nuclear pact, but Rouhani said on Monday the collapse of the deal would not be in the interests of the region or the world. The nuclear deal seeks to head off any pathway to an Iranian nuclear bomb in return for the removal of most international sanctions. Speaking in Beijing, Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi said the United States should not use "extreme pressure" to resolve issues with Iran. China 'very concerned' Wang told reporters China, a close energy partner of Iran, was "of course, very concerned" about the situation in the Gulf and with Iran, and called on all sides to ease tension. "We call on all sides to remain rational and exercise restraint, and not take any escalatory actions that irritate regional tensions, and not open a Pandora's box," Wang said. "In particular, the US side should alter its extreme pressure methods," Wang said. "Any unilateral behaviour has no basis in international law. Not only will it not resolve the problem, it will only create an even greater crisis." Wang also said the Iran nuclear deal was the only feasible way to resolve its nuclear issue, and urged Iran to be prudent. European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said the EU would only react to any breach if the International Atomic Energy Agency formally identified one. The Trump administration says the deal, negotiated by Democratic President Barack Obama, was flawed as it is not permanent, does not address Iran's missile program and does not punish it for waging proxy wars in other Middle East countries.

'Won't wage war,' says Iran President Hassan Rouhani as US deploys more troops to Middle East

Iran said on Sunday Europe was in no position to criticise Tehran for its military capabilities and it called on European leaders to normalise trade ties with the Islamic Republic despite US sanctions, or face consequences.

President Donald Trump last year withdrew the United States from world powers' 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed sweeping sanctions. Trump condemned the accord, signed by his predecessor Barack Obama, as flawed for not being permanent and for not covering Iran’s ballistic missile programme or its role in conflicts around the Middle East.

The west European signatories to the deal - France, Britain and Germany - share the same concerns as the United States over Iran’s ballistic missile development and regional activities.

However, they have defended the nuclear accord as the best way to limit Iran’s enrichment of uranium, a potential pathway to nuclear weapons, and a basis for future negotiations on a broader palette of security and other longstanding disputes.

"Europeans are not in a position to criticise Iran for issues outside the JCPOA," Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was quoted as saying by the state broadcaster, using the acronym for the nuclear deal.

"The Europeans and other signatories of the JCPOA should normalise economic ties with Iran...We will halt our commitments or will take action in accordance with their measures."

Last month, Iran scaled back some commitments under the 2015 deal and warned that in 60 days it would resume enriching uranium to a higher degree than that permitted by the accord if the Europeans failed to shield it against the US sanctions, which aim to cripple its oil-dependent economy.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas will visit Iran this week to explore options for preserving the fraying nuclear non-proliferation pact.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani on Sunday criticised French President Emmanuel Macron for saying last week in a meeting with Trump that they shared the same objectives on Iran.

Macron said France wanted to make sure Tehran will not get nuclear weapons: "We had an accord until 2025 and we want to go further and have full certainty in the long run... (Then) reduce ballistic activity and contain Iran regionally."

Larijani was quoted as saying by state media: "The recent remarks by the French president in a meeting with Trump were shameful and inept...Macron's comments did not match what he has been telling our president...in their meetings and on the phone."

Iran insists its nuclear activities are entirely peaceful and has repeatedly refused to discuss its missile programme.

Tehran unveiled on Sunday a new "domestically-produced" air defence system with the capability to trace six targets - including fighetr jets, bombers and drones at the same time and destroy them with missiles.

"Iran will increase its military capabilities to protect its national security and interests, and it will not ask permission from anyone on this matter," Defence Minister Amir Hatami said at an unveiling ceremony for the system.

Iran said on Sunday Europe was in no position to criticise Tehran for its military capabilities and it called on European leaders to normalise trade ties with the Islamic Republic despite US sanctions, or face consequences.

Iran said on Sunday Europe was in no position to criticise Tehran for its military capabilities and it called on European leaders to normalise trade ties with the Islamic Republic despite US sanctions, or face consequences. President Donald Trump last year withdrew the United States from world powers' 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed sweeping sanctions. Trump condemned the accord, signed by his predecessor Barack Obama, as flawed for not being permanent and for not covering Iran’s ballistic missile programme or its role in conflicts around the Middle East. The west European signatories to the deal - France, Britain and Germany - share the same concerns as the United States over Iran’s ballistic missile development and regional activities. However, they have defended the nuclear accord as the best way to limit Iran’s enrichment of uranium, a potential pathway to nuclear weapons, and a basis for future negotiations on a broader palette of security and other longstanding disputes. "Europeans are not in a position to criticise Iran for issues outside the JCPOA," Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was quoted as saying by the state broadcaster, using the acronym for the nuclear deal. "The Europeans and other signatories of the JCPOA should normalise economic ties with Iran...We will halt our commitments or will take action in accordance with their measures." Last month, Iran scaled back some commitments under the 2015 deal and warned that in 60 days it would resume enriching uranium to a higher degree than that permitted by the accord if the Europeans failed to shield it against the US sanctions, which aim to cripple its oil-dependent economy. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas will visit Iran this week to explore options for preserving the fraying nuclear non-proliferation pact. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani on Sunday criticised French President Emmanuel Macron for saying last week in a meeting with Trump that they shared the same objectives on Iran. Macron said France wanted to make sure Tehran will not get nuclear weapons: "We had an accord until 2025 and we want to go further and have full certainty in the long run... (Then) reduce ballistic activity and contain Iran regionally." Larijani was quoted as saying by state media: "The recent remarks by the French president in a meeting with Trump were shameful and inept...Macron's comments did not match what he has been telling our president...in their meetings and on the phone." Iran insists its nuclear activities are entirely peaceful and has repeatedly refused to discuss its missile programme. Tehran unveiled on Sunday a new "domestically-produced" air defence system with the capability to trace six targets - including fighetr jets, bombers and drones at the same time and destroy them with missiles. "Iran will increase its military capabilities to protect its national security and interests, and it will not ask permission from anyone on this matter," Defence Minister Amir Hatami said at an unveiling ceremony for the system.

Europe in no position to criticise Iran for issues outside JCPOA: Foreign Minister Javad Zarif

The United States on Friday hit Iran's petrochemical group PGPIC with economic sanctions due to its ties with the country's <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/iran-rejects-french-call-for-wider-talks-beyond-nuclear-deal-report-225256">Revolutionary Guards</a> (IRGC), the Treasury Department announced.

The move aims to choke off financing to the country's largest and most profitable petrochemical group and extends to its 39 subsidiaries and "foreign-based sales agents," the Treasury Department said in a statement.

"This action is a warning that we will continue to target holding groups and companies in the petrochemical sector and elsewhere that provide financial lifelines to the IRGC," Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in the statement.

Treasury warned that international companies continuing to partner with PGPIC or subsidiaries and sales agents "will themselves be exposed to US sanctions."

The <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/japanese-prime-minister-abe-set-for-mediation-mission-to-iran-224969">US efforts over the past year to choke off Iran's economy</a>, following President Donald Trump's decision to abandon the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by his predecessor, has angered allies as foreign companies get caught up in the dispute.

Treasury said it is penalizing PGPIC due to its links to the economic arm of the IRGC, known as Khatam al-Anbiya.

The sanctions prohibit the firm and its subsidiaries from accessing the US market or financial system, including through other foreign companies, and blocks all funds or property that is in the United States or held by a US firm.

"By targeting this network we intend to deny funding to key elements of Iran's petrochemical sector that provide support to the IRGC," Mnuchin said.

The PGPIC group holds 40 per cent of Iran's total petrochemical production capacity and is responsible for 50 per cent of the country's petrochemical exports, Treasury said.

The United States on Friday hit Iran's petrochemical group PGPIC with economic sanctions due to its ties with the country's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), the Treasury Department announced.

The United States on Friday hit Iran's petrochemical group PGPIC with economic sanctions due to its ties with the country's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), the Treasury Department announced. The move aims to choke off financing to the country's largest and most profitable petrochemical group and extends to its 39 subsidiaries and "foreign-based sales agents," the Treasury Department said in a statement. "This action is a warning that we will continue to target holding groups and companies in the petrochemical sector and elsewhere that provide financial lifelines to the IRGC," Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in the statement. Treasury warned that international companies continuing to partner with PGPIC or subsidiaries and sales agents "will themselves be exposed to US sanctions." The US efforts over the past year to choke off Iran's economy, following President Donald Trump's decision to abandon the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by his predecessor, has angered allies as foreign companies get caught up in the dispute. Treasury said it is penalizing PGPIC due to its links to the economic arm of the IRGC, known as Khatam al-Anbiya. The sanctions prohibit the firm and its subsidiaries from accessing the US market or financial system, including through other foreign companies, and blocks all funds or property that is in the United States or held by a US firm. "By targeting this network we intend to deny funding to key elements of Iran's petrochemical sector that provide support to the IRGC," Mnuchin said. The PGPIC group holds 40 per cent of Iran's total petrochemical production capacity and is responsible for 50 per cent of the country's petrochemical exports, Treasury said.

US hits Iran petrochemical group PGPIC with sanctions

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Saturday a <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-president-trump-orders-1500-troops-to-middle-east-221402">US decision to deploy 1,500 additional troops to the Middle East</a> is a "threat to international peace," state media reported.

"Increased US presence in our region is very dangerous and a threat to international peace and security and must be confronted," Zarif told the official IRNA news agency before heading home from a visit to Pakistan.

Washington says the reinforcements, which come after the deployment earlier this month of an aircraft carrier task force, B-52 bombers, an amphibious assault ship and a missile defence system, are in response to "campaign" of recent attacks approved by Iran's top leadership.

"Americans make such claims to justify their hostile policies and to create tension in the Persian Gulf," Zarif said.

The <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/amid-washington-tehran-tension-india-ends-iranian-oil-imports-envoy-221168">United States this month ended the last exemptions</a> it had granted from sweeping unilateral sanctions it reimposed after abandoning a landmark 2015 nuclear between major powers and Iran in May last year.

The move dealt a heavy new blow to Iran's already reeling economy as even vocal critics of the renewed sanctions, like Turkey, announced they had stopped buying Iranian oil.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Saturday a US decision to deploy 1,500 additional troops to the Middle East is a "threat to international peace," state media reported.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Saturday a US decision to deploy 1,500 additional troops to the Middle East is a "threat to international peace," state media reported. "Increased US presence in our region is very dangerous and a threat to international peace and security and must be confronted," Zarif told the official IRNA news agency before heading home from a visit to Pakistan. Washington says the reinforcements, which come after the deployment earlier this month of an aircraft carrier task force, B-52 bombers, an amphibious assault ship and a missile defence system, are in response to "campaign" of recent attacks approved by Iran's top leadership. "Americans make such claims to justify their hostile policies and to create tension in the Persian Gulf," Zarif said. The United States this month ended the last exemptions it had granted from sweeping unilateral sanctions it reimposed after abandoning a landmark 2015 nuclear between major powers and Iran in May last year. The move dealt a heavy new blow to Iran's already reeling economy as even vocal critics of the renewed sanctions, like Turkey, announced they had stopped buying Iranian oil.

US troop boost 'threat to international peace': Iran Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif

The neighbourhood will be a priority and the focus will be on India's ties with the United States and China in the backdrop of Beijing-Washington standoff over trade issue, former envoys said after the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-general-elections-2019/lok-sabha-polls-2019-narendra-modi-likely-to-take-oath-as-prime-minister-on-may-30-221221">historic victory of Narendra Modi</a> led-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in country's 17 Lok Sabha elections. Other than this, ties with Iran on the energy front and Russia which is a long-standing ally of India will also be in focus.&nbsp;

Our principal diplomatic correspondent Sidhant Sibal spoke to 11 former Indian envoys on focus areas for the new government and the challenges ahead.

"The new government will have its hands full. And one of the many priorities would be the immediate neighbourhood- Sri Lanka Afghanistan and Pakistan should be higher on the list- need to work with Sri Lanka, work on Pakistan and with and for Afghanistan &nbsp;as it stands on a critical crossroad.US Taliban talks seem to have hit the wall of Taliban's intransigence andIR inflexibility. India has to be mindful of the danger of Afghanistan being pushed back to dark ages and thus needs a proactive role with all stakeholders to ensure gains of last 18 years are not sacrificed," said Amar Sinha, former Ambassador of India to Afghanistan and Tajikistan.

Ashok Sajjanhar, former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia said, "Relations with the<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/imf-warns-us-china-trade-war-will-jeopardize-2019-global-growth-221117"> US and China</a> will be the most challenging. India will have to deftly and skillfully deal with China's ascendancy and assertiveness through both cooperation and competition to safeguard and promote its strategic and economic interests. With Washington, India will need to ensure that America's growing capriciousness and unpredictability on trade matters does not adversely impact on the rapidly advancing bilateral strategic partnership. Energy security and prices, Pakistan, Afghanistan and West Asia are other challenges looming on the horizon which will need to be attended to urgently."

Kanwal Sibal, former Foreign Secretary said, "Standing up to the US &nbsp;on issues where it’s policies hurt our interests while maintaining the forward momentum of our ties. Keeping China engaged while boosting the Indo-Pacific concept. Preserving close ties with Russia as we become closer to the US and participate in hedging policies towards China."

Sharat Sabharwal, former High Commissioner to Pakistan, Ambassador to Uzbekistan, said, "Managing the relationship with a fast-rising and increasingly assertive China will remain the major foreign policy challenge of the new government. But an immediate crisis that the government may have to deal with is the mounting tension between the US and Iran, with the potential of a military conflict and its impact on India's energy supplies from West Asia and the large Indian diaspora there."

Anil Trigunayat, former Ambassador to Jordan Libya and Malta, said, "The biggest challenge in my view will be in managing the US especially with regard to our engagement with Russia and Iran as blatant unilateralism has the potential to undermine our strategic autonomy. &nbsp;If the US-Iran confrontation crosses the threshold it will have the worst repercussions for our energy security and diaspora welfare in the Gulf region."

Vijay K Nambiar, India’s former Permanent Representative to United Nations and former envoy to Pak, China, Afghanistan, said, "We are increasingly presenting an image to the outside world of an angry "underdog" power wanting to disrupt the status quo. Our biggest challenge, in the coming period, therefore, will be to preserve our traditional soft power image of an open, inclusive and introspective society that, while confident and unselfconscious about its own particularities, is willing to adopt a humane and harmonious attitude towards the outside world and to learn from others."

Deepa Wadhwa, a former envoy to Qatar, Japan, Sweden, Latvia and the Marshall Islands, said, "Sidhant, I believe the first issue the new government will have to confront, will be the fallout of the US-Iran standoff and its effect on our interests in the Middle East. The other priority will be our relationship with the US and in particular, deteriorating trade ties."

"There are perennials of our relations with China and the new government will soon have an opportunity to convey our sensitivities and concerns while batting for improved relations at the second informal summit to be held between the leaders of the two countries in the latter half of the year," Wadhwa added.

Anil Wadhwa, former Indian envoy to Italy, Poland, Oman and Thailand said, "The biggest challenge facing the new government will be the management of its complex web of relationships with the United States, Russia and China, and adapting and keeping pace with the new technological revolution which is changing the way countries operate and move forward in their domestic and external policies."

Bhaswati Mukherjee, a former Indian envoy to the Netherlands, said, "Managing the contradictions in the US-China relationship and its impact on India if a full-fledged trade war breaks out. Balancing out the relationship with Russia in the context of our strategic partnership with the US. Preparing for a meltdown in Afghanistan with the withdrawal of US troops."

Rajiv Dogra, former Indian envoy to Italy and consul general to Karachi "The biggest foreign policy challenge of the new government will be it, itself. If it flips -flops and changes direction whimsically it hands over the policy advantage to others. All said and done the coming months will test the new government repeatedly on the foreign policy front."

Neelam Deo, former Indian Ambassador to Denmark and Ivory Coast said, "With Prime Minister Modi’s return to the office, India will have continuity in foreign policy direction. We can expect an enhancement in the initiatives started in PM Modi’s first term. For example. a strong outreach to members of the Quad – Japan, USA and Australia in defence, especially on maritime matters. There will be an increased focus on building infrastructure, for example in partnership with Japan in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh as well as Africa under the Asia Africa Growth Corridor. In its second term, the Modi government will move rapidly to put more content into its relationship with the West, especially the US, while the Gulf countries will be the focus of energy diplomacy."

The neighbourhood will be a priority and the focus will be on India's ties with the United States and China in the backdrop of Beijing-Washington standoff over trade issue, former envoys said after the historic victory of Narendra Modi led-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in country's 17 Lok Sabha elections.

The neighbourhood will be a priority and the focus will be on India's ties with the United States and China in the backdrop of Beijing-Washington standoff over trade issue, former envoys said after the historic victory of Narendra Modi led-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in country's 17 Lok Sabha elections. Other than this, ties with Iran on the energy front and Russia which is a long-standing ally of India will also be in focus. Our principal diplomatic correspondent Sidhant Sibal spoke to 11 former Indian envoys on focus areas for the new government and the challenges ahead. "The new government will have its hands full. And one of the many priorities would be the immediate neighbourhood- Sri Lanka Afghanistan and Pakistan should be higher on the list- need to work with Sri Lanka, work on Pakistan and with and for Afghanistan as it stands on a critical crossroad.US Taliban talks seem to have hit the wall of Taliban's intransigence andIR inflexibility. India has to be mindful of the danger of Afghanistan being pushed back to dark ages and thus needs a proactive role with all stakeholders to ensure gains of last 18 years are not sacrificed," said Amar Sinha, former Ambassador of India to Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Ashok Sajjanhar, former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia said, "Relations with the US and China will be the most challenging. India will have to deftly and skillfully deal with China's ascendancy and assertiveness through both cooperation and competition to safeguard and promote its strategic and economic interests. With Washington, India will need to ensure that America's growing capriciousness and unpredictability on trade matters does not adversely impact on the rapidly advancing bilateral strategic partnership. Energy security and prices, Pakistan, Afghanistan and West Asia are other challenges looming on the horizon which will need to be attended to urgently." Kanwal Sibal, former Foreign Secretary said, "Standing up to the US on issues where it’s policies hurt our interests while maintaining the forward momentum of our ties. Keeping China engaged while boosting the Indo-Pacific concept. Preserving close ties with Russia as we become closer to the US and participate in hedging policies towards China." Sharat Sabharwal, former High Commissioner to Pakistan, Ambassador to Uzbekistan, said, "Managing the relationship with a fast-rising and increasingly assertive China will remain the major foreign policy challenge of the new government. But an immediate crisis that the government may have to deal with is the mounting tension between the US and Iran, with the potential of a military conflict and its impact on India's energy supplies from West Asia and the large Indian diaspora there." Anil Trigunayat, former Ambassador to Jordan Libya and Malta, said, "The biggest challenge in my view will be in managing the US especially with regard to our engagement with Russia and Iran as blatant unilateralism has the potential to undermine our strategic autonomy. If the US-Iran confrontation crosses the threshold it will have the worst repercussions for our energy security and diaspora welfare in the Gulf region." Vijay K Nambiar, India’s former Permanent Representative to United Nations and former envoy to Pak, China, Afghanistan, said, "We are increasingly presenting an image to the outside world of an angry "underdog" power wanting to disrupt the status quo. Our biggest challenge, in the coming period, therefore, will be to preserve our traditional soft power image of an open, inclusive and introspective society that, while confident and unselfconscious about its own particularities, is willing to adopt a humane and harmonious attitude towards the outside world and to learn from others." Deepa Wadhwa, a former envoy to Qatar, Japan, Sweden, Latvia and the Marshall Islands, said, "Sidhant, I believe the first issue the new government will have to confront, will be the fallout of the US-Iran standoff and its effect on our interests in the Middle East. The other priority will be our relationship with the US and in particular, deteriorating trade ties." "There are perennials of our relations with China and the new government will soon have an opportunity to convey our sensitivities and concerns while batting for improved relations at the second informal summit to be held between the leaders of the two countries in the latter half of the year," Wadhwa added. Anil Wadhwa, former Indian envoy to Italy, Poland, Oman and Thailand said, "The biggest challenge facing the new government will be the management of its complex web of relationships with the United States, Russia and China, and adapting and keeping pace with the new technological revolution which is changing the way countries operate and move forward in their domestic and external policies." Bhaswati Mukherjee, a former Indian envoy to the Netherlands, said, "Managing the contradictions in the US-China relationship and its impact on India if a full-fledged trade war breaks out. Balancing out the relationship with Russia in the context of our strategic partnership with the US. Preparing for a meltdown in Afghanistan with the withdrawal of US troops." Rajiv Dogra, former Indian envoy to Italy and consul general to Karachi "The biggest foreign policy challenge of the new government will be it, itself. If it flips -flops and changes direction whimsically it hands over the policy advantage to others. All said and done the coming months will test the new government repeatedly on the foreign policy front." Neelam Deo, former Indian Ambassador to Denmark and Ivory Coast said, "With Prime Minister Modi’s return to the office, India will have continuity in foreign policy direction. We can expect an enhancement in the initiatives started in PM Modi’s first term. For example. a strong outreach to members of the Quad – Japan, USA and Australia in defence, especially on maritime matters. There will be an increased focus on building infrastructure, for example in partnership with Japan in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh as well as Africa under the Asia Africa Growth Corridor. In its second term, the Modi government will move rapidly to put more content into its relationship with the West, especially the US, while the Gulf countries will be the focus of energy diplomacy."

Lok Sabha election 2019: US, China and neighbouring countries to be focus areas of new government, say former envoys

By Tony Walker

The last thing the world needs at a moment of significant trade tensions between the United States and China is a Middle East crisis that would further imperil global growth.

Yet this is what is threatening in the Persian Gulf, where the US and its Arab allies are edging towards a showdown with Iran in a contested waterway through which 20 per cent&nbsp;of the world’s tradeable oil passes daily.

In coordination with its Arab allies, notably Saudi Arabia, and with Israel, the US is ratcheting up pressure on Iran to wind back its support for what it terms “bad actors” in the region.

This includes Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, radical groups in the Palestinian territories, including Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen, and disaffected anti-regime elements in the Gulf.

While the US denies it is seeking to bring about regime change in Iran, this clearly is its hope.

Conflict is not inevitable, but risks are elevated by combative talk – and actions – from a Washington that seems bent on engaging in the sort of brinkmanship that threatens more serious conflict in a region already on edge.

Washington’s deployment of an aircraft carrier battle group and B-52 bombers in the Gulf region is amplifying concerns.

President Donald Trump is not helping; to the contrary.

On one hand, he invites Iran’s leaders to talk. On the other, he warns of that country’s annihilation.

This sort of bombast, the antithesis of wielding a big stick and talking softly, coincides with tightening US sanctions that are doing significant damage to Iran’s economy.

These measures include sanctions imposed this month on Iran’s industrial metals sector. This sector accounts for about 10 per cent&nbsp;of its export economy.

How Tehran responds to these harsh assaults on its economic lifelines is anyone’s guess, but what is certain is that its response will not be passive.

Already this month we have witnessed two sets of terrorist attacks on Gulf oil interests Iran, or its proxies, are blamed for an assault on four ships in which explosives damaged the hulls. Two of these vessels are Saudi-owned. In the second, Iran proxies are blamed for drone strikes on a Saudi Arabian oil pipeline.

In response to terrorist threats to its eastern oil-rich provinces, Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled media have begun calling for “surgical strikes” against Iranian interests.

Such action would provoke a wider conflagration.

What tends to be overlooked in all of this is the ease with which Iran, on a previous occasion, stifled oil shipments from the Gulf.

In 1984, Iran was widely believed to have been responsible for rolling second world war mines into Gulf waterways in the so-called “tanker war” with Iraq. This destroyed several vessels and brought tanker traffic to a halt for weeks.

Adding to jitters are recent reports that a Katyusha rocket fell near the American embassy in central Baghdad. Iranian-backed militias, with their strongholds across the Tigris River in the east of the city, are suspected of launching the rocket.

Washington had already ordered non-essential US personnel out of Baghdad. Oil giant ExxonMobil has begun moving employees out of the region. The US has warned commercial air traffic of increased risks in the Gulf.

This is a movie we have seen before, in the first Gulf War and in the 2003 invasion of Iraq to remove Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.

Iran proved to be a significant beneficiary of the chaos that resulted from a destabilisation of the Middle East following the US-led invasion.

None of this is contributing to a stable oil market, on which the global economy rests.

On top of punitive sanctions against Iran, sanctions on Venezuela and disruptions in Libya caused by a civil war have unsettled markets.

Dramatic cuts in Iran’s oil shipments due to US-imposed sanctions followed Washington’s withdrawal last year from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) aimed at forestalling Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Until sanctions started to bite, Iran was the second-largest exporter among Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), behind Saudi Arabia. At their peak, Iranian exports were about 3 million barrels a day.

That number has now slid to 500,000 barrels or less, according to oil market analysts. But in its attempts to skirt US sanctions, Iran is no longer reporting production to OPEC and is not providing definitive information on exports.

As things stand, US sanctions are being adhered to by most importers of Iranian crude, with the likely exceptions being China and India. The US removed waivers on countries accepting Iran’s oil in November after withdrawing from the JCPOA in May 2018.

The 2015 agreement, negotiated by the Obama administration in partnership with the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany, froze Iran’s nuclear program for 15 years. The agreement was designed to provide an opportunity for the West to take counter-measures in case Iran upscaled its production of fissionable material.

By withdrawing from the JCPOA without a fallback position beyond punitive sanctions and threats of military action, the US has separated itself from its allies and left itself few options beyond further sanctions – or military threats.

That is, unless Trump’s offers of direct negotiations with Iran’s leaders bear fruit. At this stage, a tense standoff in the world’s most volatile region is not only dangerous, it could have been avoided by the US adhering to an agreement that was far from perfect, but better than the alternative.

That alternative is estrangement from its allies on Iran, and now real risks of a further security deterioration in the volatile Gulf.

Philip Gordon, a Middle East specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, summed up the dilemma for US policy and that of its allies rendered anxious by risks of adventurism in the Gulf in pursuit of an American goal of regime change in Tehran. He wrote that barring something extraordinary such as the collapse of the Iranian regime, "It’s hard to see how this current conflict could end without the United States backing down or with a further and very dangerous escalation. The Trump administration should have considered all this before it walked away from the nuclear deal in the first place."

(Tony Walker is Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe University)

&nbsp;(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/trouble-in-the-gulf-as-us-iran-dispute-threatens-to-escalate-into-serious-conflict-117081">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

&nbsp;

By Tony Walker The last thing the world needs at a moment of significant trade tensions between the United States and China is a Middle East crisis that would further imperil global growth.

By Tony Walker The last thing the world needs at a moment of significant trade tensions between the United States and China is a Middle East crisis that would further imperil global growth. Yet this is what is threatening in the Persian Gulf, where the US and its Arab allies are edging towards a showdown with Iran in a contested waterway through which 20 per cent of the world’s tradeable oil passes daily. In coordination with its Arab allies, notably Saudi Arabia, and with Israel, the US is ratcheting up pressure on Iran to wind back its support for what it terms “bad actors” in the region. This includes Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, radical groups in the Palestinian territories, including Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen, and disaffected anti-regime elements in the Gulf. While the US denies it is seeking to bring about regime change in Iran, this clearly is its hope. Conflict is not inevitable, but risks are elevated by combative talk – and actions – from a Washington that seems bent on engaging in the sort of brinkmanship that threatens more serious conflict in a region already on edge. Washington’s deployment of an aircraft carrier battle group and B-52 bombers in the Gulf region is amplifying concerns. President Donald Trump is not helping; to the contrary. On one hand, he invites Iran’s leaders to talk. On the other, he warns of that country’s annihilation. This sort of bombast, the antithesis of wielding a big stick and talking softly, coincides with tightening US sanctions that are doing significant damage to Iran’s economy. These measures include sanctions imposed this month on Iran’s industrial metals sector. This sector accounts for about 10 per cent of its export economy. How Tehran responds to these harsh assaults on its economic lifelines is anyone’s guess, but what is certain is that its response will not be passive. Already this month we have witnessed two sets of terrorist attacks on Gulf oil interests Iran, or its proxies, are blamed for an assault on four ships in which explosives damaged the hulls. Two of these vessels are Saudi-owned. In the second, Iran proxies are blamed for drone strikes on a Saudi Arabian oil pipeline. In response to terrorist threats to its eastern oil-rich provinces, Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled media have begun calling for “surgical strikes” against Iranian interests. Such action would provoke a wider conflagration. What tends to be overlooked in all of this is the ease with which Iran, on a previous occasion, stifled oil shipments from the Gulf. In 1984, Iran was widely believed to have been responsible for rolling second world war mines into Gulf waterways in the so-called “tanker war” with Iraq. This destroyed several vessels and brought tanker traffic to a halt for weeks. Adding to jitters are recent reports that a Katyusha rocket fell near the American embassy in central Baghdad. Iranian-backed militias, with their strongholds across the Tigris River in the east of the city, are suspected of launching the rocket. Washington had already ordered non-essential US personnel out of Baghdad. Oil giant ExxonMobil has begun moving employees out of the region. The US has warned commercial air traffic of increased risks in the Gulf. This is a movie we have seen before, in the first Gulf War and in the 2003 invasion of Iraq to remove Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. Iran proved to be a significant beneficiary of the chaos that resulted from a destabilisation of the Middle East following the US-led invasion. None of this is contributing to a stable oil market, on which the global economy rests. On top of punitive sanctions against Iran, sanctions on Venezuela and disruptions in Libya caused by a civil war have unsettled markets. Dramatic cuts in Iran’s oil shipments due to US-imposed sanctions followed Washington’s withdrawal last year from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) aimed at forestalling Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Until sanctions started to bite, Iran was the second-largest exporter among Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), behind Saudi Arabia. At their peak, Iranian exports were about 3 million barrels a day. That number has now slid to 500,000 barrels or less, according to oil market analysts. But in its attempts to skirt US sanctions, Iran is no longer reporting production to OPEC and is not providing definitive information on exports. As things stand, US sanctions are being adhered to by most importers of Iranian crude, with the likely exceptions being China and India. The US removed waivers on countries accepting Iran’s oil in November after withdrawing from the JCPOA in May 2018. The 2015 agreement, negotiated by the Obama administration in partnership with the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany, froze Iran’s nuclear program for 15 years. The agreement was designed to provide an opportunity for the West to take counter-measures in case Iran upscaled its production of fissionable material. By withdrawing from the JCPOA without a fallback position beyond punitive sanctions and threats of military action, the US has separated itself from its allies and left itself few options beyond further sanctions – or military threats. That is, unless Trump’s offers of direct negotiations with Iran’s leaders bear fruit. At this stage, a tense standoff in the world’s most volatile region is not only dangerous, it could have been avoided by the US adhering to an agreement that was far from perfect, but better than the alternative. That alternative is estrangement from its allies on Iran, and now real risks of a further security deterioration in the volatile Gulf. Philip Gordon, a Middle East specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, summed up the dilemma for US policy and that of its allies rendered anxious by risks of adventurism in the Gulf in pursuit of an American goal of regime change in Tehran. He wrote that barring something extraordinary such as the collapse of the Iranian regime, "It’s hard to see how this current conflict could end without the United States backing down or with a further and very dangerous escalation. The Trump administration should have considered all this before it walked away from the nuclear deal in the first place." (Tony Walker is Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe University) (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Trouble in the Gulf as US-Iran dispute threatens to escalate into serious conflict

The new government at the Centre, after May 23, will soon be called to address the emerging challenges in the Gulf. The Trump administration has tightened sanctions against Iran, moved its military naval ship from Cairo to the Gulf and kept its military base in Qatar and navy in the Arabian Sea on the high alert to meet any threatening contingencies from Iran.&nbsp;

The USA has further withdrawn the sanction waiver to India, China and Turkey, which had allowed them to import the oil from Iran.&nbsp;

This has prompted Iranian Foreign Minister to visit the capital of India, Turkey, China and Japan to elicit assurance from these countries to continue to import the Iranian oil despite the US withdrawal of sanction waiver. These countries are the biggest buyers of Iranian oıl and the sudden drop in the export of oil to these countries would adversely affect the already fragile economy of Iran.&nbsp;

Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz with a warning. If Iran is not allowed to sell its oil, ıt will not allow other countries in the region to sell their oils. This was followed by an attack on the UAE and Saudi oil tankers; both of them have accused Iran. As a result, a real war situation has emerged in the Gulf. &nbsp;

Traditionally, India has played the role of the bystander in Gulf Conflicts; mostly appealing them to resolve the issue peacefully and kept equip distance with party in conflict-whether Iran-Iraq War or the cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However this time India cannot remain a distant spectator to the emerging conflicts in the Gulf. In terms of investment, remittances, oil, gas, the flow of FDI, its diaspora, India has a greater stake in relations with Saudi-Arabia- UAE than Iran.&nbsp;

Also, India needs the USA and Israel to outset the influence of China-Pakistan axis. Given this precarious situation, India must try hard first to resolve the issues amicably and work for the stability of the Gulf. However, if the diplomacy failed, India needs to closely align with the Saudi- UAE Axis against Iran.&nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

The new government at the Centre, after May 23, will soon be called to address the emerging challenges in the Gulf. The Trump administration has tightened sanctions against Iran, moved its military naval ship from Cairo to the Gulf and kept its military base in Qatar and navy in the Arabian Sea on the high alert to meet any threatening contingencies from Iran.

The new government at the Centre, after May 23, will soon be called to address the emerging challenges in the Gulf. The Trump administration has tightened sanctions against Iran, moved its military naval ship from Cairo to the Gulf and kept its military base in Qatar and navy in the Arabian Sea on the high alert to meet any threatening contingencies from Iran. The USA has further withdrawn the sanction waiver to India, China and Turkey, which had allowed them to import the oil from Iran. This has prompted Iranian Foreign Minister to visit the capital of India, Turkey, China and Japan to elicit assurance from these countries to continue to import the Iranian oil despite the US withdrawal of sanction waiver. These countries are the biggest buyers of Iranian oıl and the sudden drop in the export of oil to these countries would adversely affect the already fragile economy of Iran. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz with a warning. If Iran is not allowed to sell its oil, ıt will not allow other countries in the region to sell their oils. This was followed by an attack on the UAE and Saudi oil tankers; both of them have accused Iran. As a result, a real war situation has emerged in the Gulf. Traditionally, India has played the role of the bystander in Gulf Conflicts; mostly appealing them to resolve the issue peacefully and kept equip distance with party in conflict-whether Iran-Iraq War or the cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However this time India cannot remain a distant spectator to the emerging conflicts in the Gulf. In terms of investment, remittances, oil, gas, the flow of FDI, its diaspora, India has a greater stake in relations with Saudi-Arabia- UAE than Iran. Also, India needs the USA and Israel to outset the influence of China-Pakistan axis. Given this precarious situation, India must try hard first to resolve the issues amicably and work for the stability of the Gulf. However, if the diplomacy failed, India needs to closely align with the Saudi- UAE Axis against Iran. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

How India should address emerging challenges in the Gulf

US President Donald Trump threatened Iran in a tweet on Sunday, raising concerns about a potential US-Iran conflict at a time when tensions between Washington and Tehran have risen. Discusses this topic with Syed Mohd Marandi, Political Analyst from Tehran & also with Mr. Stephen Golub, International Affairs Expert from California.

US-Iran Tensions; Discusses with some experts

US President Donald Trump threatened Iran in a tweet on Sunday, raising concerns about a potential US-Iran conflict at a time when tensions between Washington and Tehran have risen.

Trump threatens Iran in tweet as tension between two countries escalate

Some Democrats vying for the party's 2020 presidential nomination shifted the focus of the race to foreign policy on Sunday, criticizing Republican President Donald Trump as a weak commander in chief who is escalating tensions with Iran.

The relationship between Washington and Tehran has become increasingly strained in recent weeks, raising concerns about a potential US-Iran conflict.

Trump and hawkish foreign policy advisers like national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo want Tehran to give up its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Trump has tightened economic sanctions against Iran, aimed at forcing its leaders into negotiations. Pompeo last year outlined a list of demands on Iran that critics said showed he was pushing for regime change.

Representative Tulsi Gabbard, one of 24 Democrats vying for the White House nomination, said on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" that Trump was "leading us down this dangerous path towards a war with Iran."

"He says he doesn't want it, but the actions of him and his administration, people like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, tell us a very different story. They are setting the stage for a war with Iran that would prove to be far more costly, far more devastating and dangerous than anything that we saw in the Iraq war," Gabbard said.

Trump has said he is not pushing for war with Iran. During the 2016 presidential campaign, he promised to stay out of overseas conflicts, saying the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were too costly.

In May 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from a multinational deal with Iran negotiated by the Obama administration that reduced economic sanctions on Tehran in exchange for scaling back its nuclear program. Trump criticized the deal as weak, saying he would negotiate a stronger one.

Gabbard, 38, enlisted in the US Army National Guard after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks and was twice deployed to the Middle East. Gabbard has said she is running for president to end regime-change wars, though she currently trails most of her 2020 opponents in opinion polls.

Another White House hopeful, Representative Seth Moulton, a 40-year-old former US Marine Corps officer who did four tours in Iraq, told "This Week" that if the Trump administration sends additional troops to the Gulf it could "drag us into war."

"Make no mistake, this is exactly what John Bolton wants to have happen," said Moulton, who also trails in 2020 opinion polls. "The world is so dangerous when you have a weak commander in chief in the president of the United States."&nbsp;

Moulton counts as a mentor former Vice President Joe Biden, who currently leads the 2020 Democratic field in support. When asked why Democratic primary voters should back him over his mentor, Moulton said: "I think it's time for the generation that fought in Iraq and Afghanistan to take over for the generation that sent us there."

Gabbard resigned her post at the Democratic National Committee in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was the nominee because she said the former secretary of state's foreign policy positions were too hawkish. Gabbard was asked by ABC if that also applied to Biden, given both he and Clinton served in the Obama administration.

"We'll see what Vice President Biden's foreign policy vision is for this country. We may agree on some issues, disagree on others," Gabbard said.

Some Democrats vying for the party's 2020 presidential nomination shifted the focus of the race to foreign policy on Sunday, criticizing Republican President Donald Trump as a weak commander in chief who is escalating tensions with Iran.

Some Democrats vying for the party's 2020 presidential nomination shifted the focus of the race to foreign policy on Sunday, criticizing Republican President Donald Trump as a weak commander in chief who is escalating tensions with Iran. The relationship between Washington and Tehran has become increasingly strained in recent weeks, raising concerns about a potential US-Iran conflict. Trump and hawkish foreign policy advisers like national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo want Tehran to give up its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Trump has tightened economic sanctions against Iran, aimed at forcing its leaders into negotiations. Pompeo last year outlined a list of demands on Iran that critics said showed he was pushing for regime change. Representative Tulsi Gabbard, one of 24 Democrats vying for the White House nomination, said on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" that Trump was "leading us down this dangerous path towards a war with Iran." "He says he doesn't want it, but the actions of him and his administration, people like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, tell us a very different story. They are setting the stage for a war with Iran that would prove to be far more costly, far more devastating and dangerous than anything that we saw in the Iraq war," Gabbard said. Trump has said he is not pushing for war with Iran. During the 2016 presidential campaign, he promised to stay out of overseas conflicts, saying the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were too costly. In May 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from a multinational deal with Iran negotiated by the Obama administration that reduced economic sanctions on Tehran in exchange for scaling back its nuclear program. Trump criticized the deal as weak, saying he would negotiate a stronger one. Gabbard, 38, enlisted in the US Army National Guard after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks and was twice deployed to the Middle East. Gabbard has said she is running for president to end regime-change wars, though she currently trails most of her 2020 opponents in opinion polls. Another White House hopeful, Representative Seth Moulton, a 40-year-old former US Marine Corps officer who did four tours in Iraq, told "This Week" that if the Trump administration sends additional troops to the Gulf it could "drag us into war." "Make no mistake, this is exactly what John Bolton wants to have happen," said Moulton, who also trails in 2020 opinion polls. "The world is so dangerous when you have a weak commander in chief in the president of the United States." Moulton counts as a mentor former Vice President Joe Biden, who currently leads the 2020 Democratic field in support. When asked why Democratic primary voters should back him over his mentor, Moulton said: "I think it's time for the generation that fought in Iraq and Afghanistan to take over for the generation that sent us there." Gabbard resigned her post at the Democratic National Committee in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was the nominee because she said the former secretary of state's foreign policy positions were too hawkish. Gabbard was asked by ABC if that also applied to Biden, given both he and Clinton served in the Obama administration. "We'll see what Vice President Biden's foreign policy vision is for this country. We may agree on some issues, disagree on others," Gabbard said.

2020 White House hopefuls turn to foreign policy, slam Trump on Iran

Saudi Arabia has called for emergency regional talks to discuss mounting Gulf tensions, saying Sunday that it does not want war with Iran but is ready to defend itself.

King Salman invited Gulf leaders and Arab League member states to two emergency summits in Mecca on May 30 to discuss recent "aggressions and their consequences", the kingdom's official SPA news agency reported Saturday.

The announcement came days after mysterious sabotage attacks against several tankers in highly sensitive Gulf waters and drone attacks on a crude pipeline by Iran-aligned Yemen rebels, which Riyadh claimed were carried out on Iranian orders.

The United States has also deployed an aircraft carrier and bombers to the Gulf over alleged threats from Iran.

Saudi Arabia's minister of state for foreign affairs, Adel al-Jubeir, said Sunday his country does not want to go to war with Iran but would defend itself.

Saudi Arabia "does not want a war, is not looking for it and will do everything to prevent it," he said.

"But at the same time, if the other side chooses war, the kingdom will respond with strength and determination to defend itself and its interests."

The kingdom's regional allies welcomed the Saudi invitation.

The UAE's foreign ministry said the current "critical circumstances" require a unified Arab and Gulf stance.

The meetings will be a "significant opportunity for the countries of the region to achieve their aspirations for establishing peace and stability," it said.

Sabotage probe ongoing

Four ships including two Saudi oil tankers were damaged in mysterious sabotage attacks last Sunday off the UAE's Fujairah, near the Strait of Hormuz -- a vital maritime route for oil exports which Iran has threatened to close in the event of a war.

That incident was followed by drone strikes Tuesday by Yemen's Iran-aligned rebels on a major Saudi oil pipeline built as an alternative export route if the Strait of Hormuz were to be closed.

Jubeir said the UAE was leading the probe into the damaged oil tankers but added that "we have some indications and we will make the announcements once the investigations are completed".

The Emirates has said three Western countries -- the US, France and Norway -- would also be part of the investigation, along with the UAE and Saudi Arabia.&nbsp;

Neither of the two Gulf states, both close allies of the United States, have given details on the exact nature of the ship attacks.

Despite international scepticism, the US government has cited increasing threats from Iran, a long-time enemy of both the US and its regional allies, including Israel and Saudi Arabia.

SPA said Sunday that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had spoken with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo about enhancing security in the region.&nbsp;

The US has already strengthened its military presence in the region, deploying several of strategic B-52 bombers in response to alleged Iranian threats.

US President Donald Trump last week predicted that Iran would "soon" want to negotiate.

Saudi Arabia has called for emergency regional talks to discuss mounting Gulf tensions, saying Sunday that it does not want war with Iran but is ready to defend itself.

Saudi Arabia has called for emergency regional talks to discuss mounting Gulf tensions, saying Sunday that it does not want war with Iran but is ready to defend itself. King Salman invited Gulf leaders and Arab League member states to two emergency summits in Mecca on May 30 to discuss recent "aggressions and their consequences", the kingdom's official SPA news agency reported Saturday. The announcement came days after mysterious sabotage attacks against several tankers in highly sensitive Gulf waters and drone attacks on a crude pipeline by Iran-aligned Yemen rebels, which Riyadh claimed were carried out on Iranian orders. The United States has also deployed an aircraft carrier and bombers to the Gulf over alleged threats from Iran. Saudi Arabia's minister of state for foreign affairs, Adel al-Jubeir, said Sunday his country does not want to go to war with Iran but would defend itself. Saudi Arabia "does not want a war, is not looking for it and will do everything to prevent it," he said. "But at the same time, if the other side chooses war, the kingdom will respond with strength and determination to defend itself and its interests." The kingdom's regional allies welcomed the Saudi invitation. The UAE's foreign ministry said the current "critical circumstances" require a unified Arab and Gulf stance. The meetings will be a "significant opportunity for the countries of the region to achieve their aspirations for establishing peace and stability," it said. Sabotage probe ongoing Four ships including two Saudi oil tankers were damaged in mysterious sabotage attacks last Sunday off the UAE's Fujairah, near the Strait of Hormuz -- a vital maritime route for oil exports which Iran has threatened to close in the event of a war. That incident was followed by drone strikes Tuesday by Yemen's Iran-aligned rebels on a major Saudi oil pipeline built as an alternative export route if the Strait of Hormuz were to be closed. Jubeir said the UAE was leading the probe into the damaged oil tankers but added that "we have some indications and we will make the announcements once the investigations are completed". The Emirates has said three Western countries -- the US, France and Norway -- would also be part of the investigation, along with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Neither of the two Gulf states, both close allies of the United States, have given details on the exact nature of the ship attacks. Despite international scepticism, the US government has cited increasing threats from Iran, a long-time enemy of both the US and its regional allies, including Israel and Saudi Arabia. SPA said Sunday that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had spoken with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo about enhancing security in the region. The US has already strengthened its military presence in the region, deploying several of strategic B-52 bombers in response to alleged Iranian threats. US President Donald Trump last week predicted that Iran would "soon" want to negotiate.

Saudi calls for urgent Arab talks over Iran tensions

Saudi Arabia said on Sunday that it wants to avert war in the region but stands ready to respond with "all strength" following last week's attacks on Saudi oil assets, telling Iran that the ball was now in its court.

Riyadh has accused Tehran of ordering Tuesday's drone strikes on two oil pumping stations in the kingdom, claimed by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group. Two days earlier, four vessels, including two Saudi oil tankers, were sabotaged off the coast of the United Arab Emirates.

Iran has denied involvement in either operation, which come as Washington and the Islamic Republic spar over sanctions and the US&nbsp;military presence in the region, raising concerns about a potential <a href="https://www.wionews.com/opinions/is-a-war-coming-between-the-us-and-iran-219109/amp">US-Iran conflict</a>.

"The kingdom of Saudi Arabia does not want a war in the region nor does it seek that," Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir told a news conference.

"It will do what it can to prevent this war and at the same time it reaffirms that in the event the other side chooses war, the kingdom will respond with all force and determination, and it will defend itself and its interests."

Saudi Arabia's King Salman on Sunday invited Gulf and Arab leaders to convene emergency summits in Mecca on May 30 to discuss implications of the attacks.

"The current critical circumstances entail a unified Arab and Gulf stance toward the besetting challenges and risks," the UAE foreign ministry said in a statement.

Saudi Arabia's Sunni Muslim ally the UAE has not blamed anyone for the tanker sabotage operation, pending an investigation. No-one has claimed responsibility, but two US&nbsp;government sources said last week that US&nbsp;officials believed Iran had encouraged the Houthi group or Iraq-based Shi'ite militias to carry it out.

The drone strike on oil pumping stations, which Riyadh said did not disrupt output or exports, was claimed by the Houthis, who have been battling a Saudi-led military coalition in a war in Yemen since 2015.

The head of the Houthis' Supreme Revolutionary Committee, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, derided Riyadh's call to convene Arab summits, saying in a Twitter post that they "only know how to support war and destruction".

A Norwegian insurers' report seen by Reuters said Iran's Revolutionary Guards were "highly likely" to have facilitated the attack on vessels near the UAE's Fujairah emirate, the main bunkering hub lying just outside the Strait of Hormuz.

SAUDI PRINCE CALLS POMPEO

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has dismissed the possibility of war erupting, saying Tehran did not want conflict and no country had the "illusion it can confront Iran". This stance was echoed by the head of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards on Sunday.

"We are not pursuing war but we are also not afraid of war," Major General Hossein Salami was cited as saying by the semi-official news agency Tasnim.

Washington has tightened economic sanctions against Iran, trying to cut Tehran's oil exports to zero, and beefed up the US&nbsp;military presence in the Gulf in response to what it said were Iranian threats to United States troops and interests.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed regional developments, including efforts to strengthen security and stability, in a phone call with US&nbsp;Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the Saudi Media Ministry tweeted on Sunday.

"We want peace and stability in the region but we will not sit on our hands in light of the continuing Iranian attack," Jubeir said. "The ball is in Iran's court and it is up to Iran to determine what its fate will be."

He said the crew of an Iranian oil tanker that had been towed to Saudi Arabia early this month after a request for help due to engine trouble were still in the kingdom receiving the "necessary care". The crews are 24 Iranians and two Bangladeshis.

Saudi Arabia and Shi'ite Iran are arch-adversaries in the Middle East, backing opposite sides in several regional wars. In a sign of the heightened tension, Exxon Mobil evacuated foreign staff from an oilfield in neighbouring Iraq.

Bahrain on Saturday warned its citizens against travel to Iraq and Iran and asked those already there to return.

The US Federal Aviation Administration has issued an advisory to US&nbsp;commercial airliners flying over the waters of the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to exercise caution.

Saudi Arabia said on Sunday that it wants to avert war in the region but stands ready to respond with "all strength" following last week's attacks on Saudi oil assets, telling Iran that the ball was now in its court.

Saudi Arabia said on Sunday that it wants to avert war in the region but stands ready to respond with "all strength" following last week's attacks on Saudi oil assets, telling Iran that the ball was now in its court. Riyadh has accused Tehran of ordering Tuesday's drone strikes on two oil pumping stations in the kingdom, claimed by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group. Two days earlier, four vessels, including two Saudi oil tankers, were sabotaged off the coast of the United Arab Emirates. Iran has denied involvement in either operation, which come as Washington and the Islamic Republic spar over sanctions and the US military presence in the region, raising concerns about a potential US-Iran conflict. "The kingdom of Saudi Arabia does not want a war in the region nor does it seek that," Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir told a news conference. "It will do what it can to prevent this war and at the same time it reaffirms that in the event the other side chooses war, the kingdom will respond with all force and determination, and it will defend itself and its interests." Saudi Arabia's King Salman on Sunday invited Gulf and Arab leaders to convene emergency summits in Mecca on May 30 to discuss implications of the attacks. "The current critical circumstances entail a unified Arab and Gulf stance toward the besetting challenges and risks," the UAE foreign ministry said in a statement. Saudi Arabia's Sunni Muslim ally the UAE has not blamed anyone for the tanker sabotage operation, pending an investigation. No-one has claimed responsibility, but two US government sources said last week that US officials believed Iran had encouraged the Houthi group or Iraq-based Shi'ite militias to carry it out. The drone strike on oil pumping stations, which Riyadh said did not disrupt output or exports, was claimed by the Houthis, who have been battling a Saudi-led military coalition in a war in Yemen since 2015. The head of the Houthis' Supreme Revolutionary Committee, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, derided Riyadh's call to convene Arab summits, saying in a Twitter post that they "only know how to support war and destruction". A Norwegian insurers' report seen by Reuters said Iran's Revolutionary Guards were "highly likely" to have facilitated the attack on vessels near the UAE's Fujairah emirate, the main bunkering hub lying just outside the Strait of Hormuz. SAUDI PRINCE CALLS POMPEO Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has dismissed the possibility of war erupting, saying Tehran did not want conflict and no country had the "illusion it can confront Iran". This stance was echoed by the head of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards on Sunday. "We are not pursuing war but we are also not afraid of war," Major General Hossein Salami was cited as saying by the semi-official news agency Tasnim. Washington has tightened economic sanctions against Iran, trying to cut Tehran's oil exports to zero, and beefed up the US military presence in the Gulf in response to what it said were Iranian threats to United States troops and interests. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed regional developments, including efforts to strengthen security and stability, in a phone call with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the Saudi Media Ministry tweeted on Sunday. "We want peace and stability in the region but we will not sit on our hands in light of the continuing Iranian attack," Jubeir said. "The ball is in Iran's court and it is up to Iran to determine what its fate will be." He said the crew of an Iranian oil tanker that had been towed to Saudi Arabia early this month after a request for help due to engine trouble were still in the kingdom receiving the "necessary care". The crews are 24 Iranians and two Bangladeshis. Saudi Arabia and Shi'ite Iran are arch-adversaries in the Middle East, backing opposite sides in several regional wars. In a sign of the heightened tension, Exxon Mobil evacuated foreign staff from an oilfield in neighbouring Iraq. Bahrain on Saturday warned its citizens against travel to Iraq and Iran and asked those already there to return. The US Federal Aviation Administration has issued an advisory to US commercial airliners flying over the waters of the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to exercise caution.

Saudi Arabia says it seeks to avert war, ball in Iran's court

By Scott Lucas

You can’t say the world wasn’t warned. In February, US National Security Adviser John Bolton — a leading proponent of the disastrous 2003 Iraq War — sent a video message to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 40 years after the creation of the Islamic Republic: “I don’t think you’ll have many more anniversaries to enjoy.”

Propelled in large part by Bolton, the Trump Administration withdrew in May 2018 from the 2015 nuclear agreement between the US and the 5+1 powers – the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China. In November, Washington imposed comprehensive sanctions on Tehran, including on the energy and financial sectors.

But Bolton was signalling unsubtly: we can inflict more damage if we wish. So how far will the Trump administration go? And is there an imminent threat of war between the US and Iran?

On May 13, after weeks of escalation, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, each took a rhetorical step back. In Moscow, alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Pompeo said the Trump administration “fundamentally” did not seek conflict. Addressing the president and other senior officials in Tehran the same day, Khamenei asserted: “Neither we nor they, who know the war will not be in their interest, are after war.”

Still, there were other combative words and steps on both sides. Khamenei jabbed: “In [its] policy of confrontation with the Islamic Republic, the US will definitely suffer defeat.” For his part, Pompeo said: “We have also made clear to the Iranians that if American interests are attacked, we will most certainly respond in an appropriate fashion.” Hours later, the administration ordered the partial evacuation of US embassy staff from Baghdad in Iran’s neighbour Iraq.

Psychology of the drumbeat

The threat of war is not just on the Twitter timeline of US President Donald Trump. It is also in Pompeo traipsing through Europe, cancelling a meeting with the Germans – seen as too conciliatory towards the Islamic Republic – to twist the arm of the British to take action. And it is in the loudly-signalled move to the Persian Gulf of a naval strike group with the USS Abraham Lincoln and bomber aircraft in early May, and the positioning of more bombers in Qatar.

It is US administration officials telling The New York Times of an updated military plan tabled at a meeting of national security officials to send up to 120,000 troops to the Middle East if Iran attacks US forces or accelerates work on nuclear weapons – a plan ordered by Bolton and other hardliners. Trump subsequently dismissed the report but said that if he did decide to become more aggressive with Iran, the US would: “send a hell of a lot more troops than that.”

But it is likely that all of this is for the illusion of war, rather than its launch. This is still jaw-jawed, but in the service of the US administration’s non-military schemes to topple Iran’s supreme leader.

The game – again far from subtle – is to break Iran’s economy. While the US ratcheted up sanctions during the Obama administration, the aim was to bring the Iranians into negotiations over their nuclear programme. This time, the ever-expanding blacklist has no vision of talks for a renewed agreement. Its aim is to constrict Iranian production, trade, and investment, driving up unemployment and driving down the currency. In support of this, the US could update past covert operations, such as the Stuxnet computer virus, to disrupt nuclear and other operations and – as an Iranian engineer claims – attempt to take down Iran’s power grid.

War by default

But what if the overt sanctions and covert sabotage don’t bring about Khamenei’s departure? The vision of Bolton and his compatriots egged on by certain Iranian diaspora groups, maybe that Iranians will take to the streets in many hundreds of thousands, as they did in the Green Movement after the country’s disputed 2009 presidential election.

That vision is likely to be faulty. For almost a decade, the Iranian regime has decapitated dissent. The leaders of the Green Movement have been under house arrest since February 2011. Hundreds of activists, students, lawyers, labour leaders, and rights advocates are imprisoned or under perpetual threat of detention. Communications are still restricted, with a further threat of punishment.

Many inside Iran are just trying to survive, and the mood is resignation. Assuming they did return to the streets, the motive for many was and is still likely to be reform of the system, not revolution – particularly if the US is pursuing regime change.

So what then? With Khamenei unyielding to any demand from the streets, will Bolton, Pompeo and co. conclude that the hammer has to fall? The gambit may be to make the Iranians make the first forceful move, and then act on the pretext of self-defence.

We could already be at that point. There is no sign yet of Iranian speedboats buzzing the US carrier and its bombers, or Iran closing the oil waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. But, on May 12 four commercial ships, including two Saudi tankers, were damaged off the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in what the country called a “sabotage” attack. Two days later, Saudi Arabia said two drones caused a fire at oil pumping stations. Attacks by Iranian elements or their proxies? “False flags” to blame Tehran? Under either scenario, an escalation to more violent acts is possible.

There are many logical arguments why that escalation will not occur, however. The Islamic Republic’s factions, from Khamenei to the Revolutionary Guards, know that head-on confrontation with the US could be suicidal. American forces in a conflict that is far from straightforward is not a vote winner either for Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign. With the possible exceptions of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, almost every international actor – the UN, the European Union, China, Russia, the Organisation of Islamic Countries – will be opposed to war.

As Ilan Goldenberg of the Center for a New American Security summarised: “Nobody wants a war.” Probably. But some officials in Washington may not be averse to a war that happens to come along. The title of Bolton’s last major opinion article in the Wall Street Journal before joining the Trump administration in April 2018 was: “The legal case for striking North Korea first.”

 
(Scott Lucas is Professor of International Politics, University of Birmingham)

(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-a-war-coming-between-the-us-and-iran-117150">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

 
&nbsp;

By Scott Lucas You can’t say the world wasn’t warned. In February, US National Security Adviser John Bolton — a leading proponent of the disastrous 2003 Iraq War — sent a video message to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 40 years after the creation of the Islamic Republic: “I don’t think you’ll have many more anniversaries to enjoy.

By Scott Lucas You can’t say the world wasn’t warned. In February, US National Security Adviser John Bolton — a leading proponent of the disastrous 2003 Iraq War — sent a video message to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 40 years after the creation of the Islamic Republic: “I don’t think you’ll have many more anniversaries to enjoy.” Propelled in large part by Bolton, the Trump Administration withdrew in May 2018 from the 2015 nuclear agreement between the US and the 5+1 powers – the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China. In November, Washington imposed comprehensive sanctions on Tehran, including on the energy and financial sectors. But Bolton was signalling unsubtly: we can inflict more damage if we wish. So how far will the Trump administration go? And is there an imminent threat of war between the US and Iran? On May 13, after weeks of escalation, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, each took a rhetorical step back. In Moscow, alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Pompeo said the Trump administration “fundamentally” did not seek conflict. Addressing the president and other senior officials in Tehran the same day, Khamenei asserted: “Neither we nor they, who know the war will not be in their interest, are after war.” Still, there were other combative words and steps on both sides. Khamenei jabbed: “In [its] policy of confrontation with the Islamic Republic, the US will definitely suffer defeat.” For his part, Pompeo said: “We have also made clear to the Iranians that if American interests are attacked, we will most certainly respond in an appropriate fashion.” Hours later, the administration ordered the partial evacuation of US embassy staff from Baghdad in Iran’s neighbour Iraq. Psychology of the drumbeat The threat of war is not just on the Twitter timeline of US President Donald Trump. It is also in Pompeo traipsing through Europe, cancelling a meeting with the Germans – seen as too conciliatory towards the Islamic Republic – to twist the arm of the British to take action. And it is in the loudly-signalled move to the Persian Gulf of a naval strike group with the USS Abraham Lincoln and bomber aircraft in early May, and the positioning of more bombers in Qatar. It is US administration officials telling The New York Times of an updated military plan tabled at a meeting of national security officials to send up to 120,000 troops to the Middle East if Iran attacks US forces or accelerates work on nuclear weapons – a plan ordered by Bolton and other hardliners. Trump subsequently dismissed the report but said that if he did decide to become more aggressive with Iran, the US would: “send a hell of a lot more troops than that.” But it is likely that all of this is for the illusion of war, rather than its launch. This is still jaw-jawed, but in the service of the US administration’s non-military schemes to topple Iran’s supreme leader. The game – again far from subtle – is to break Iran’s economy. While the US ratcheted up sanctions during the Obama administration, the aim was to bring the Iranians into negotiations over their nuclear programme. This time, the ever-expanding blacklist has no vision of talks for a renewed agreement. Its aim is to constrict Iranian production, trade, and investment, driving up unemployment and driving down the currency. In support of this, the US could update past covert operations, such as the Stuxnet computer virus, to disrupt nuclear and other operations and – as an Iranian engineer claims – attempt to take down Iran’s power grid. War by default But what if the overt sanctions and covert sabotage don’t bring about Khamenei’s departure? The vision of Bolton and his compatriots egged on by certain Iranian diaspora groups, maybe that Iranians will take to the streets in many hundreds of thousands, as they did in the Green Movement after the country’s disputed 2009 presidential election. That vision is likely to be faulty. For almost a decade, the Iranian regime has decapitated dissent. The leaders of the Green Movement have been under house arrest since February 2011. Hundreds of activists, students, lawyers, labour leaders, and rights advocates are imprisoned or under perpetual threat of detention. Communications are still restricted, with a further threat of punishment. Many inside Iran are just trying to survive, and the mood is resignation. Assuming they did return to the streets, the motive for many was and is still likely to be reform of the system, not revolution – particularly if the US is pursuing regime change. So what then? With Khamenei unyielding to any demand from the streets, will Bolton, Pompeo and co. conclude that the hammer has to fall? The gambit may be to make the Iranians make the first forceful move, and then act on the pretext of self-defence. We could already be at that point. There is no sign yet of Iranian speedboats buzzing the US carrier and its bombers, or Iran closing the oil waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. But, on May 12 four commercial ships, including two Saudi tankers, were damaged off the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in what the country called a “sabotage” attack. Two days later, Saudi Arabia said two drones caused a fire at oil pumping stations. Attacks by Iranian elements or their proxies? “False flags” to blame Tehran? Under either scenario, an escalation to more violent acts is possible. There are many logical arguments why that escalation will not occur, however. The Islamic Republic’s factions, from Khamenei to the Revolutionary Guards, know that head-on confrontation with the US could be suicidal. American forces in a conflict that is far from straightforward is not a vote winner either for Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign. With the possible exceptions of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, almost every international actor – the UN, the European Union, China, Russia, the Organisation of Islamic Countries – will be opposed to war. As Ilan Goldenberg of the Center for a New American Security summarised: “Nobody wants a war.” Probably. But some officials in Washington may not be averse to a war that happens to come along. The title of Bolton’s last major opinion article in the Wall Street Journal before joining the Trump administration in April 2018 was: “The legal case for striking North Korea first.” (Scott Lucas is Professor of International Politics, University of Birmingham) (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Is a war coming between the US and Iran?

The Kremlin Wednesday expressed concern that tensions over Iran keep escalating despite assurances from <a href="https://www.wionews.com/americas/us-iran-tensions-trump-administration-orders-non-emergency-embassy-staff-to-leave-iraq-218924">US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo </a>during a visit to Russia that Washington was not seeking war.

"So far we notice the continued escalation of tensions around this subject," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, a day after Pompeo met with President Vladimir Putin.

"We are saddened to see the decisions taken by the Iranian side," Peskov said&nbsp;while arguing that Washington has been provoking Iran.&nbsp;

Speaking in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi on Tuesday, Pompeo had assured Russia that his country did not want war with Iran, despite a spike in tensions that has seen the Pentagon dispatch nuclear-capable bombers to the region.

But Peskov sought to play down those statements.

"There were no assurances from Pompeo," Putin's spokesman told reporters.&nbsp;

"And one can hardly talk about some sort of assurances. There is an obvious situation which unfortunately tends to escalate further."

Washington has ramped up pressure on Tehran in recent days, accusing Iran of planning "imminent" attacks in the region, and bolstering the American military presence in the Gulf.

<div class="videoWrapper trancodeVideo"><iframe allowfullscreen="" autoplay="1" class="includeVideo" frameborder="0" height="350" src="https://www.wionews.com/videos/uk-military-says-no-increased-iran-threat-in-syria-or-iraq-218944/embed" style="width:100%;max-width:560px;" width="560"></iframe></div>

A State Department advisory announcing the partial embassy closures warned of numerous terrorist and insurgent groups active in Iraq, including "anti-US sectarian militias" who could "threaten US citizens and Western companies throughout Iraq."

The US last year shut its consulate in the protest-hit southern Iraqi city of Basra, blaming "indirect fire" by Iran-backed forces.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency(IEA) said on Wednesday that global tensions over US sanctions on Iran had produced less crude in line with their pact.

The Paris-based IEA said that while geopolitics and industry disruptions were clouding the outlook it believes that the market balance is set to flip from surplus into deficit, a development that would favour efforts by oil producing nations to keep prices high.

With fresh economic data and forecasts now available, the IEA trimmed its forecast for growth in global oil demand this year to an increase of 1.3 mbd, primarily due to a slow start of the year.

However, it said: "slower demand growth is likely to be short-lived, as we believe that the pace will pick up during the rest of the year."

The Kremlin Wednesday expressed concern that tensions over Iran keep escalating despite assurances from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a visit to Russia that Washington was not seeking war.

The Kremlin Wednesday expressed concern that tensions over Iran keep escalating despite assurances from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a visit to Russia that Washington was not seeking war. "So far we notice the continued escalation of tensions around this subject," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, a day after Pompeo met with President Vladimir Putin. "We are saddened to see the decisions taken by the Iranian side," Peskov said while arguing that Washington has been provoking Iran. Speaking in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi on Tuesday, Pompeo had assured Russia that his country did not want war with Iran, despite a spike in tensions that has seen the Pentagon dispatch nuclear-capable bombers to the region. But Peskov sought to play down those statements. "There were no assurances from Pompeo," Putin's spokesman told reporters. "And one can hardly talk about some sort of assurances. There is an obvious situation which unfortunately tends to escalate further." Washington has ramped up pressure on Tehran in recent days, accusing Iran of planning "imminent" attacks in the region, and bolstering the American military presence in the Gulf. A State Department advisory announcing the partial embassy closures warned of numerous terrorist and insurgent groups active in Iraq, including "anti-US sectarian militias" who could "threaten US citizens and Western companies throughout Iraq." The US last year shut its consulate in the protest-hit southern Iraqi city of Basra, blaming "indirect fire" by Iran-backed forces. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency(IEA) said on Wednesday that global tensions over US sanctions on Iran had produced less crude in line with their pact. The Paris-based IEA said that while geopolitics and industry disruptions were clouding the outlook it believes that the market balance is set to flip from surplus into deficit, a development that would favour efforts by oil producing nations to keep prices high. With fresh economic data and forecasts now available, the IEA trimmed its forecast for growth in global oil demand this year to an increase of 1.3 mbd, primarily due to a slow start of the year. However, it said: "slower demand growth is likely to be short-lived, as we believe that the pace will pick up during the rest of the year."

No assurances from Pompeo on Iran: Russia

The United States on Friday says that they don't war any war with Iran but if provoked they are ready for a swift response.

US claims 'don't want any war with Iran', tension intensifies

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