By James L Anderson

The original March 1 deadline has passed as the United States and China hash out a trade deal amid deadlocked negotiations.

Any US-China trade deal likely falls short compared to what the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could have been.

Within current talks, Donald Trump’s administration is focused on greater access to subsidised Chinese industries and addressing intellectual property theft linked to alleged forced technology transfers to China. All of this has an impact on America’s economic competitiveness in the short term.

But is the US adequately managing long-term Chinese efforts to don the mantle of global leader?

On the third day of his administration in 2017, Trump honoured a campaign promise by withdrawing from the contentious TPP. The historic 12-nation agreement was on track to cover roughly 40 per cent of the global economy.

Democrats and some Republicans in Congress, advocacy groups and some members of the American public flatly opposed the agreement. Concerns about the oversized influence of multinational corporations and the controversial investor-state dispute process was a feature of the public discourse.

Lost opportunity to rein in China?

But America may have missed a window of opportunity to curb China’s rise when it pulled out of the TPP.

Scholars Graham Allison and Kori Schake have grappled over if and how China can replace America as the world’s ranking power. Allison’s recent work, Destined for War, discusses the “windows of opportunity” the US can exploit to slow the pace of the rising power.

If history is any credible guide, the transition from Pax Britannica to Pax Americana may help US policy-makers and the public alike to understand the imperatives that surround China’s rise.

At the turn of the 20th century, America had unprecedented growth, thanks to Alfred Thayer Mahan’s vision of American sea power. And in the early years between the two World Wars, the United States, Great Britain and Japan headlined a global naval arms race.

In 1921, President Warren Harding held the Washington Naval Conference to disarm tensions among the competing navies in the Pacific. The naval powers agreed to discontinue their shipbuilding programmes and capped their naval fleets in the region. America also protected holdings in East Asia from the threat of a rising Japan.

The agreement was a triumph for America. But for Britain, their naval power was now at “eye level” with the United States.

The UK could not challenge the US

An overstretched Britain had neither the political will nor the financial ability to oppose America’s demands, aware that an arms race with the U.S. would likely bankrupt the British economy.

Pax Britannica, a symbol of Britain’s naval dominance, was forced to deliberately accommodate America’s rise. Britain’s reduced Pacific fleet and degraded Anglo-Japanese relations marked a turning point in America’s ascendancy.

It was not the first time Britain missed an opportunity to slow America’s rise. The American Civil War offered the chance, but Britain decided against joining on behalf of the Confederacy due to the issue of slavery. Schake also notes the Venezuela crisis of 1895 marked an early turning point in the leadership transition. This could have also been a window of opportunity.

How does this apply to current US-China relations? The “battleground” remains the same as in 1921; instead, China plans to supplant America to become the global leader.

Barack Obama’s administration crafted the TPP as a geopolitical instrument to halt China’s plans. It presented east and southeast Asian nations with an alternative to China’s coercive diplomacy in the region, such as in the case of Sri Lanka.

Reducing trade barriers had the potential to provide America with greater investment opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region. It could have weakened China’s diplomatic clout while also creating economic incentives for American investment in the area. It exploited a window of opportunity that targeted the source of China’s rise — its economy.

Pulling out of the TPP was not solely a product of the current administration —a Hillary Clinton administration may have withdrawn too. America’s anti-free trade mood reflects the priority of the public and lawmakers, which is to preserve US jobs and sovereignty.

Shifts in global power are afoot

But shifts in global power may be underway with implications beyond what happens on the home front. A tech Cold War is brewing, China’s plans for expansion under the Belt and Road initiative continue and South China Sea claims are an extension of China’s sovereignty.

The rebooted TPP, the 11-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is likely to reduce barriers to trade and increase investment opportunities across Asia and Latin America for its member countries, including Canada.

But the agreement, without US representation, hardly lives up to America’s once-desired aim to create a trade zone in a large swath of East Asia that would isolate China while addressing the global power shifts underway. A renegotiated CPTPP, with American backing, may have even strengthened the Trump administration’s position in its current trade negotiations with the Chinese.

The UK was unable to prevent the last global leadership transition due to missed windows of opportunity and deliberate accommodation. An America that views China’s rise through a short-term bilateral lens runs the risk of accidentally accommodating Chinese efforts to replace America.

Taking advantage of a window of opportunity may be key to curbing the next global leadership transition —and the CPTPP may be the window that America needs before we are forced to accommodate to China’s interests. The US should reconsider joining the pact if it wants any shot at slowing China’s rise.

(James L Anderson is Visiting Fulbright Fellow at Centre for International and Defence Policy, Queen's University, Ontario)

(This article was originally published on the Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-u-s-china-trade-deal-does-not-slow-chinas-rise-111971">original article)</a>

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

By James L Anderson The original March 1 deadline has passed as the United States and China hash out a trade deal amid deadlocked negotiations. Any US-China trade deal likely falls short compared to what the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could have been.

By James L Anderson The original March 1 deadline has passed as the United States and China hash out a trade deal amid deadlocked negotiations. Any US-China trade deal likely falls short compared to what the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could have been. Within current talks, Donald Trump’s administration is focused on greater access to subsidised Chinese industries and addressing intellectual property theft linked to alleged forced technology transfers to China. All of this has an impact on America’s economic competitiveness in the short term. But is the US adequately managing long-term Chinese efforts to don the mantle of global leader? On the third day of his administration in 2017, Trump honoured a campaign promise by withdrawing from the contentious TPP. The historic 12-nation agreement was on track to cover roughly 40 per cent of the global economy. Democrats and some Republicans in Congress, advocacy groups and some members of the American public flatly opposed the agreement. Concerns about the oversized influence of multinational corporations and the controversial investor-state dispute process was a feature of the public discourse. Lost opportunity to rein in China? But America may have missed a window of opportunity to curb China’s rise when it pulled out of the TPP. Scholars Graham Allison and Kori Schake have grappled over if and how China can replace America as the world’s ranking power. Allison’s recent work, Destined for War, discusses the “windows of opportunity” the US can exploit to slow the pace of the rising power. If history is any credible guide, the transition from Pax Britannica to Pax Americana may help US policy-makers and the public alike to understand the imperatives that surround China’s rise. At the turn of the 20th century, America had unprecedented growth, thanks to Alfred Thayer Mahan’s vision of American sea power. And in the early years between the two World Wars, the United States, Great Britain and Japan headlined a global naval arms race. In 1921, President Warren Harding held the Washington Naval Conference to disarm tensions among the competing navies in the Pacific. The naval powers agreed to discontinue their shipbuilding programmes and capped their naval fleets in the region. America also protected holdings in East Asia from the threat of a rising Japan. The agreement was a triumph for America. But for Britain, their naval power was now at “eye level” with the United States. The UK could not challenge the US An overstretched Britain had neither the political will nor the financial ability to oppose America’s demands, aware that an arms race with the U.S. would likely bankrupt the British economy. Pax Britannica, a symbol of Britain’s naval dominance, was forced to deliberately accommodate America’s rise. Britain’s reduced Pacific fleet and degraded Anglo-Japanese relations marked a turning point in America’s ascendancy. It was not the first time Britain missed an opportunity to slow America’s rise. The American Civil War offered the chance, but Britain decided against joining on behalf of the Confederacy due to the issue of slavery. Schake also notes the Venezuela crisis of 1895 marked an early turning point in the leadership transition. This could have also been a window of opportunity. How does this apply to current US-China relations? The “battleground” remains the same as in 1921; instead, China plans to supplant America to become the global leader. Barack Obama’s administration crafted the TPP as a geopolitical instrument to halt China’s plans. It presented east and southeast Asian nations with an alternative to China’s coercive diplomacy in the region, such as in the case of Sri Lanka. Reducing trade barriers had the potential to provide America with greater investment opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region. It could have weakened China’s diplomatic clout while also creating economic incentives for American investment in the area. It exploited a window of opportunity that targeted the source of China’s rise — its economy. Pulling out of the TPP was not solely a product of the current administration —a Hillary Clinton administration may have withdrawn too. America’s anti-free trade mood reflects the priority of the public and lawmakers, which is to preserve US jobs and sovereignty. Shifts in global power are afoot But shifts in global power may be underway with implications beyond what happens on the home front. A tech Cold War is brewing, China’s plans for expansion under the Belt and Road initiative continue and South China Sea claims are an extension of China’s sovereignty. The rebooted TPP, the 11-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is likely to reduce barriers to trade and increase investment opportunities across Asia and Latin America for its member countries, including Canada. But the agreement, without US representation, hardly lives up to America’s once-desired aim to create a trade zone in a large swath of East Asia that would isolate China while addressing the global power shifts underway. A renegotiated CPTPP, with American backing, may have even strengthened the Trump administration’s position in its current trade negotiations with the Chinese. The UK was unable to prevent the last global leadership transition due to missed windows of opportunity and deliberate accommodation. An America that views China’s rise through a short-term bilateral lens runs the risk of accidentally accommodating Chinese efforts to replace America. Taking advantage of a window of opportunity may be key to curbing the next global leadership transition —and the CPTPP may be the window that America needs before we are forced to accommodate to China’s interests. The US should reconsider joining the pact if it wants any shot at slowing China’s rise. (James L Anderson is Visiting Fulbright Fellow at Centre for International and Defence Policy, Queen's University, Ontario) (This article was originally published on the Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

A US-China trade deal does not slow China’s rise

US&nbsp;President Donald Trump on Monday said he would hold a summit with China to sign any final trade deal, a day after signalling that he planned to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to conclude an agreement.

However, Trump also told a group of US governors at the White House that while a US-China trade pact could happen very soon, it also might not happen at all.

On Sunday, Trump said he would delay an increase in US tariffs on Chinese goods thanks to <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/us-to-delay-china-tariff-increase-trump-199444">"productive" trade talks</a>. Assuming additional progress was made on both sides, Trump said he planned to meet with Xi at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

World markets rose on Monday after Trump's announcement of the delay, feeding investors' hopes that the trade war between the world's two biggest economies could soon see a resolution.

The seven-month-old trade war has rattled global markets and prompted stark warnings about the risks to the world economy.

Analysts say the two sides are likely to trumpet mutual agreements to resolve the easier parts of the trade dispute -- increasing purchases of American goods, more open investment in China and tougher protections for intellectual property and proprietary technology.

The harder parts covering issues such as scaling back China's ambitious industrial strategy for global preeminence, meanwhile, are another question.

Beijing has reportedly proposed a significant increase in its imports of US energy and agricultural exports. Still, a broader deal could be difficult given the US demands for far-reaching structural changes.

China's retaliation has hit US farm exports hard. The US Agriculture Department estimated this month that US soy exports would not return to their pre-trade war levels for another six years.

US President Donald Trump on Monday said he would hold a summit with China to sign any final trade deal, a day after signalling that he planned to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to conclude an agreement.

US President Donald Trump on Monday said he would hold a summit with China to sign any final trade deal, a day after signalling that he planned to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to conclude an agreement. However, Trump also told a group of US governors at the White House that while a US-China trade pact could happen very soon, it also might not happen at all. On Sunday, Trump said he would delay an increase in US tariffs on Chinese goods thanks to "productive" trade talks. Assuming additional progress was made on both sides, Trump said he planned to meet with Xi at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. World markets rose on Monday after Trump's announcement of the delay, feeding investors' hopes that the trade war between the world's two biggest economies could soon see a resolution. The seven-month-old trade war has rattled global markets and prompted stark warnings about the risks to the world economy. Analysts say the two sides are likely to trumpet mutual agreements to resolve the easier parts of the trade dispute -- increasing purchases of American goods, more open investment in China and tougher protections for intellectual property and proprietary technology. The harder parts covering issues such as scaling back China's ambitious industrial strategy for global preeminence, meanwhile, are another question. Beijing has reportedly proposed a significant increase in its imports of US energy and agricultural exports. Still, a broader deal could be difficult given the US demands for far-reaching structural changes. China's retaliation has hit US farm exports hard. The US Agriculture Department estimated this month that US soy exports would not return to their pre-trade war levels for another six years.

Trump says he plans summit with China to sign trade deal

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping soon to try to seal a comprehensive trade deal as Trump and his top trade negotiator both cited substantial progress in two days of high-level talks.

Trump, speaking at the White House during a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, said he was optimistic that the world's two largest economies could reach "the biggest deal ever made."

No specific plans for a meeting with Xi were announced, but Trump said there could be more than one meeting. The US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin were invited to bring the US negotiating team to Beijing around mid-February, with dates still pending.

At the end of two days of high-level talks next door to the White House, Liu told Trump that China would make a new, immediate commitment to increase soybean purchases. An administration official later clarified the amount as a total of 5 million tonnes, effectively doubling the amount bought by China since resuming limited purchases in December.

The US soybean sales to China, which totalled 31.7 million tonnes in 2017, were largely cut off in the second half of last year by China's retaliatory tariffs and the announcement drew a positive reaction from Trump, who said it would "make our farmers very happy."

While China has offered increased purchases of US farm, energy and other goods to try to resolve the trade disputes, negotiators dug into thornier issues, including the US demands that China take steps to protect American intellectual property and end policies that Washington says force US companies to turn over technology to Chinese firms.

The US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said there was "substantial progress" on these issues, including verification mechanisms to "enforce" China's follow-through on any reform commitments it makes.

"At this point, it's impossible for me to predict success. But we're in a place that if things work out, it could happen," Lighthizer said at the Oval Office meeting.

Later, he told reporters that the US objective was to make China's commitments "more specific, all-encompassing and enforceable" with a mechanism for taking action if China fails to follow through, but declined to provide specific issues.

Reuters previously reported that such an enforcement mechanism would involve a snap-back of US tariffs.

Asked whether the two sides discussed lifting US tariffs on Chinese goods, Lighthizer said tariffs were not part of the talks.

A person familiar with the discussions said a broad range of concerns about access to Chinese agricultural markets were raised in the talks but little progress was made.

The White House said in a statement that a scheduled March 2 tariff increase on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25 per cent from 10 per cent was a "hard deadline" if no deal was reached by March 1.

Trump said he did not think he would need to extend the deadline. "I think when President Xi and I meet, every point will be agreed to," Trump added.

But Trump has vetoed multiple proposed trade deals with China, choosing to push ahead with tariffs on Chinese goods to gain leverage. Earlier, Trump said on Twitter he was looking for China to open its markets "not only to Financial Services, which they are now doing but also to our Manufacturing, Farmers and other US businesses and industries. Without this, a deal would be unacceptable!"

The US complaints on technology transfers, and intellectual property protections, along with accusations of Chinese cyber theft of American trade secrets and a systematic campaign to acquire US technology firms, were used by Trump's administration to justify punitive tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports.

China has retaliated with tariffs of its own, but has suspended some and is allowing some purchases of US soybeans during the talks.

Chinese officials have said their policies do not coerce technology transfers.

The US tariffs on Chinese goods are just one front in Trump's efforts to upend the global trading order with his "America First" strategy. He has also imposed global tariffs on imported steel and aluminium, washing machines and solar panels and has threatened to raise tariffs on imported cars unless Japan and the European Union offer trade concessions.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping soon to try to seal a comprehensive trade deal as Trump and his top trade negotiator both cited substantial progress in two days of high-level talks.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping soon to try to seal a comprehensive trade deal as Trump and his top trade negotiator both cited substantial progress in two days of high-level talks. Trump, speaking at the White House during a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, said he was optimistic that the world's two largest economies could reach "the biggest deal ever made." No specific plans for a meeting with Xi were announced, but Trump said there could be more than one meeting. The US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin were invited to bring the US negotiating team to Beijing around mid-February, with dates still pending. At the end of two days of high-level talks next door to the White House, Liu told Trump that China would make a new, immediate commitment to increase soybean purchases. An administration official later clarified the amount as a total of 5 million tonnes, effectively doubling the amount bought by China since resuming limited purchases in December. The US soybean sales to China, which totalled 31.7 million tonnes in 2017, were largely cut off in the second half of last year by China's retaliatory tariffs and the announcement drew a positive reaction from Trump, who said it would "make our farmers very happy." While China has offered increased purchases of US farm, energy and other goods to try to resolve the trade disputes, negotiators dug into thornier issues, including the US demands that China take steps to protect American intellectual property and end policies that Washington says force US companies to turn over technology to Chinese firms. The US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said there was "substantial progress" on these issues, including verification mechanisms to "enforce" China's follow-through on any reform commitments it makes. "At this point, it's impossible for me to predict success. But we're in a place that if things work out, it could happen," Lighthizer said at the Oval Office meeting. Later, he told reporters that the US objective was to make China's commitments "more specific, all-encompassing and enforceable" with a mechanism for taking action if China fails to follow through, but declined to provide specific issues. Reuters previously reported that such an enforcement mechanism would involve a snap-back of US tariffs. Asked whether the two sides discussed lifting US tariffs on Chinese goods, Lighthizer said tariffs were not part of the talks. A person familiar with the discussions said a broad range of concerns about access to Chinese agricultural markets were raised in the talks but little progress was made. The White House said in a statement that a scheduled March 2 tariff increase on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25 per cent from 10 per cent was a "hard deadline" if no deal was reached by March 1. Trump said he did not think he would need to extend the deadline. "I think when President Xi and I meet, every point will be agreed to," Trump added. But Trump has vetoed multiple proposed trade deals with China, choosing to push ahead with tariffs on Chinese goods to gain leverage. Earlier, Trump said on Twitter he was looking for China to open its markets "not only to Financial Services, which they are now doing but also to our Manufacturing, Farmers and other US businesses and industries. Without this, a deal would be unacceptable!" The US complaints on technology transfers, and intellectual property protections, along with accusations of Chinese cyber theft of American trade secrets and a systematic campaign to acquire US technology firms, were used by Trump's administration to justify punitive tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports. China has retaliated with tariffs of its own, but has suspended some and is allowing some purchases of US soybeans during the talks. Chinese officials have said their policies do not coerce technology transfers. The US tariffs on Chinese goods are just one front in Trump's efforts to upend the global trading order with his "America First" strategy. He has also imposed global tariffs on imported steel and aluminium, washing machines and solar panels and has threatened to raise tariffs on imported cars unless Japan and the European Union offer trade concessions.

Trump to meet with China's Xi soon; says 'optimistic to reach biggest trade deal ever'

President Donald Trump said Friday he is confident Washington and Beijing will reach a deal to bring to a close the months-long trade dispute that has roiled global financial markets.

"I think we will make a deal with China," Trump said at the White House, and noted that talks are underway with China "at the highest levels."

With the Chinese economy slowing, "I really think they want to" reach an agreement, he told reporters. "I think they sort of have to."

A US delegation is due to travel to Beijing to hold negotiations Monday, but Trump said he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping already have been actively engaged in the talks.

"We have a massive trade negotiation going on with China. President Xi is very much involved, so am I. We're dealing at the highest levels and we're doing very well," he said.

Trump and Xi agreed to a three-month cease-fire after imposing steep tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in two-way trade, which has raised fears of slowing economic growth and added to investor jitters worldwide.

Trump repeated that the US has "taken in billions and billions of dollars in tariffs from China and from others," despite the fact import duties are increasing costs for American businesses and consumers.

The New York Federal Reserve bank said in an analysis Friday that "higher import tariffs had immediate impacts on US domestic prices," raising the consumer and producer prices by 0.3 percentage points higher than they would otherwise have been.

Deputy US Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish is due to lead the team to China for the first face-to-face discussions, which will include officials from the Treasury, Commerce and Agriculture departments as well.

The bruising trade war comes as China grapples with a slowing domestic economy. Growth is expected by the government to have eased to around 6.5 per cent in 2018, down from 6.9 per cent in 2017.

The manufacturing sectors in both countries have been hit by the trade dispute, and Apple shares dropped sharply after reporting steeper-than-expected "economic deceleration" in the last quarter in China -- one of its largest overseas markets.

Trump said he has urged Apple chief Tim Cook to "make your product in the United States" rather than China.

A US delegation is due to travel to Beijing to hold negotiations Monday, but Trump said he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping already have been actively engaged in the talks.

President Donald Trump said Friday he is confident Washington and Beijing will reach a deal to bring to a close the months-long trade dispute that has roiled global financial markets. "I think we will make a deal with China," Trump said at the White House, and noted that talks are underway with China "at the highest levels." With the Chinese economy slowing, "I really think they want to" reach an agreement, he told reporters. "I think they sort of have to." A US delegation is due to travel to Beijing to hold negotiations Monday, but Trump said he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping already have been actively engaged in the talks. "We have a massive trade negotiation going on with China. President Xi is very much involved, so am I. We're dealing at the highest levels and we're doing very well," he said. Trump and Xi agreed to a three-month cease-fire after imposing steep tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in two-way trade, which has raised fears of slowing economic growth and added to investor jitters worldwide. Trump repeated that the US has "taken in billions and billions of dollars in tariffs from China and from others," despite the fact import duties are increasing costs for American businesses and consumers. The New York Federal Reserve bank said in an analysis Friday that "higher import tariffs had immediate impacts on US domestic prices," raising the consumer and producer prices by 0.3 percentage points higher than they would otherwise have been. Deputy US Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish is due to lead the team to China for the first face-to-face discussions, which will include officials from the Treasury, Commerce and Agriculture departments as well. The bruising trade war comes as China grapples with a slowing domestic economy. Growth is expected by the government to have eased to around 6.5 per cent in 2018, down from 6.9 per cent in 2017. The manufacturing sectors in both countries have been hit by the trade dispute, and Apple shares dropped sharply after reporting steeper-than-expected "economic deceleration" in the last quarter in China -- one of its largest overseas markets. Trump said he has urged Apple chief Tim Cook to "make your product in the United States" rather than China.

Trump says confident in US trade deal with China