Oil prices have fallen, but the risk of a rebound remains as global market volatility continues. In the US, inflation is accelerating while real incomes are declining, putting pressure on household purchasing power. Meanwhile, the eurozone is also experiencing rising inflation, prompting the European Central Bank to consider tighter monetary policy to stabilize prices. At the same time, the European Union is responding to increasing competitive pressure from China across key industries. In East Asia, artificial intelligence is emerging as a major driver of economic growth, boosting productivity and reshaping regional economic momentum.


Global Economic Health: Market Moves in June 1 Week

Crude oil markets are in turmoil as talks over the Strait of Hormuz reportedly stall, keeping traders on edge. Prices are swinging sharply amid uncertainty over one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes. With diplomacy faltering and supply risks rising, volatility continues to dominate global crude trading sentiment.

Oil Prices Swing As Hormuz Talks Collapse | Markets On Edge 

Asian markets traded mostly higher after oil prices eased following reports of a delayed U.S. strike on Iran. U.S. futures edged higher after a mixed Wall Street close, as rising oil prices and inflation concerns weighed on sentiment. Tech stocks, including major chipmakers, came under pressure ahead of key earnings, keeping investors cautious.

Markets Rattled By Oil And Tech Jitters | Global Stock Update 

Wall Street is bouncing back strongly, with the S&P 500 inching close to its late-January peak. Investors are increasingly betting on easing geopolitical tensions, driving a “de-escalation trade” across markets. Despite recent volatility, confidence is returning as traders anticipate stability in global conditions, pushing equities higher and signalling renewed optimism in the US economy.


Markets Remain Keen To Jump Into The De-Escalation Trade

The Middle East conflict is now feeding directly into China's manufacturing economy through higher imported energy and raw-material costs. That external shock is colliding with an already fragile industrial recovery, raising input prices, extending delivery times, and threatening profit margins across the factory sector. While China's manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory in March, the combination of slowing momentum and intensifying cost pressures points to a more difficult operating environment in the months ahead.



China Faces Cost-Push Inflation Trap; Margin Squeeze Deepens Across China

Global markets are witnessing wild swings as uncertainty around the Iran war deal continues to weigh on investor sentiment. Confusion over the ceasefire terms has sparked volatility, raising questions about who’s really driving the money flows. After a sharp plunge, crude oil prices have rebounded, adding to the unpredictability. With optimism around the truce fading, markets remain on edge, watching every move closely.


Wild Market Swings Raise Big Questions As Iran Deal Uncertainty Shakes Global Investors

The US economy is undergoing a long-term structural shift, with jobs increasingly moving from manufacturing to the services sector.

This transformation has been driven by technological advancements, globalisation and outsourcing, leading to a steady decline in manufacturing employment since its peak in the 1970s.

The shift reflects deeper changes in how the US economy functions, with services now playing a central role in growth, employment and productivity.

US Economy Transitioning to Services-Led Growth | World Business Watch

Central banks are once again flirting with rate hikes, and as a result markets bet on fresh turmoil. Memories of the 2022 inflation battle are clearly still fresh. Yet talking about rate rises is one thing, delivering them is quite another, and they could win the ‘wrong’ inflation fight. In this next report, we decode how the bar for rate hikes is higher than what markets are betting on.


Investors on Edge as Central Banks Flirt With Rate Hikes

U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday. With the Dow up 47 points, the S&P-500 gaining a quarter per cent, and The Nasdaq is climbing nearly half a per cent. Ahead of the Fed's policy decision, futures were mostly flat. While airlines, travel companies, and tech stocks like Uber saw notable gains amid high oil prices and West Asian conflict.

US Stocks Rise Ahead of Fed Meeting | World Business Watch

The global smartphone market is heading toward its sharpest decline on record in 2026 as a worsening memory chip shortage drives up device costs and squeezes supply.


Global Smartphone Market Faces Record Slump In 2026 Amid Chip Shortage | WION 

It was a week of two halves for the Indian markets. But ultimately India ended on a bruising note as global jitters overshadowed domestic resilience.


Indian Stock Market Weekly Snapshot: Global Jitters Drag Markets Lower | WION 

AI company Anthropic has reportedly declined a Pentagon ultimatum seeking unconditional use of its artificial intelligence systems by the US military. The development signals tensions between major AI firms and defence authorities over how advanced AI technologies should be deployed, particularly in military and national security contexts.


AI: Anthropic Defies Pentagon, Refuses Unconditional US Military AI Access | WION 

Global markets staged a tentative rebound after a sharp technology-led sell-off, with stocks stabilising and Bitcoin climbing. But beneath the recovery, investors remain uneasy. Massive spending on artificial intelligence, rising valuations, and uncertainty over future returns have fuelled fears of a potential bubble. From Wall Street to Asia and Europe, volatility continues as markets question whether the AI boom can justify its costs.


Massive AI Spending Raises Fears of a New Bubble | Gravitas

Indian equities ended the week largely unchanged as optimism around corporate earnings helped offset global headwinds and sustained foreign investor selling.

Cues to Watch in Indian Markets Next Week

For months, markets have been moving in rhythm with president Trump’s tariff threats and social posts.
And every weekend post from president Trump sends traders into a frenzy.
We decode the 11-step tariff playbook, a pattern so consistent, investors are beginning to trade it like clockwork.
Take a look at this next report for more.

Trump’s Tariff Cycle: Markets on Edge Again 

Asian equity markets moved cautiously higher on July 1, buoyed by record gains on Wall Street and optimism surrounding ongoing global trade negotiations, even as political and economic uncertainty in the United States kept investors on edge. A weaker dollar, falling oil prices, and renewed demand for safe-haven assets like gold reflected growing anxiety ahead of crucial US policy decisions, including a massive tax-and-spending bill and looming tariff deadlines.MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.5 per cent, led by South Korea’s Kospi, which climbed 1.8 per cent. However, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.1 per cent as the yen strengthened, while broader indices such as Australia’s S&amp;P/ASX 200 and India’s BSE Sensex traded flat. Hong Kong markets remained closed for a public holiday.Investors remained fixated on the fate of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending package, estimated to add $3.3 trillion to the US debt pile. The bill, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” by the president, has sparked intense debate in the Senate, with Republicans and Democrats battling over a flurry of amendments. Trump has urged passage before the July 4 holiday.Meanwhile, the 90-day reprieve on Trump’s reciprocal tariffs is set to expire on July 9, heightening tensions with trading partners. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled progress with some nations but warned that tariffs could “spring back” to previously announced levels if negotiations stall. The uncertainty weighed on sentiment across Asian markets, where export-driven economies are especially vulnerable.<h2>Gold climbs as safe-haven demand grows</h2>Gold prices extended gains on July 1, supported by a falling US dollar and rising investor demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical concerns and policy ambiguity. Spot gold rose 0.6 per cent to $3,322.55 per ounce in early Asian trading, while US gold futures gained 0.8 per cent to $3,334.80. The US dollar index dropped 0.2 per cent, touching a 50-month low. A weaker dollar typically boosts gold demand by making it cheaper for holders of other currencies.Indian domestic prices also mirrored global trends. 24-karat gold traded at ₹98,400 ($1,147) per 10 grams, while 22-karat stood at ₹90,200 ($1,052). Analysts expect an upward bias in gold prices to persist in the near term.Market participants are now closely watching the upcoming US jobs report due on July 3, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. Any signs of economic softening may strengthen the case for rate cuts, potentially boosting gold further.<h2>Oil slides as supply outlook weighs</h2>Crude oil prices continued their downward trend, pressured by expectations of increased supply from OPEC+ and concerns over slowing demand due to trade tensions. Brent futures for September delivery fell 0.46 per cent to $66.43, while WTI August contracts dropped 0.49 per cent to $64.79 per barrel.OPEC+ is expected to hike output by another 411,000 barrels per day in August, the fourth straight monthly increase. Analysts from ING Think noted that with recent supply additions, the global oil market could return to a surplus in Q4 2025, eroding the geopolitical risk premium that previously supported prices. Domestic oil futures followed suit. On the MCX, July crude contracts fell 0.48 per cent to ₹5,554 ($64.76), while August contracts slipped 0.42 per cent to ₹5,469 ($63.77).Despite easing tensions between Israel and Iran, markets remain alert to potential disruptions. Trump’s latest criticism of Japan for refusing US rice imports, posted on Truth Social, underscores the fragile nature of ongoing trade talks. With critical US economic data and policy decisions looming, investors remain on guard, balancing cautious optimism with the risk of renewed volatility in global markets.

The uncertainty weighed on sentiment across Asian markets, where export-driven economies are especially vulnerable to Trump's trade policies.

Asian equity markets moved cautiously higher on July 1, buoyed by record gains on Wall Street and optimism surrounding ongoing global trade negotiations, even as political and economic uncertainty in the United States kept investors on edge. A weaker dollar, falling oil prices, and renewed demand for safe-haven assets like gold reflected growing anxiety ahead of crucial US policy decisions, including a massive tax-and-spending bill and looming tariff deadlines. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.5 per cent, led by South Korea’s Kospi, which climbed 1.8 per cent. However, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.1 per cent as the yen strengthened, while broader indices such as Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 and India’s BSE Sensex traded flat. Hong Kong markets remained closed for a public holiday. Investors remained fixated on the fate of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending package, estimated to add $3.3 trillion to the US debt pile. The bill, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” by the president, has sparked intense debate in the Senate, with Republicans and Democrats battling over a flurry of amendments. Trump has urged passage before the July 4 holiday. Meanwhile, the 90-day reprieve on Trump’s reciprocal tariffs is set to expire on July 9, heightening tensions with trading partners. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled progress with some nations but warned that tariffs could “spring back” to previously announced levels if negotiations stall. The uncertainty weighed on sentiment across Asian markets, where export-driven economies are especially vulnerable. Gold climbs as safe-haven demand grows Gold prices extended gains on July 1, supported by a falling US dollar and rising investor demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical concerns and policy ambiguity. Spot gold rose 0.6 per cent to $3,322.55 per ounce in early Asian trading, while US gold futures gained 0.8 per cent to $3,334.80. The US dollar index dropped 0.2 per cent, touching a 50-month low. A weaker dollar typically boosts gold demand by making it cheaper for holders of other currencies. Indian domestic prices also mirrored global trends. 24-karat gold traded at ₹98,400 ($1,147) per 10 grams, while 22-karat stood at ₹90,200 ($1,052). Analysts expect an upward bias in gold prices to persist in the near term. Market participants are now closely watching the upcoming US jobs report due on July 3, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. Any signs of economic softening may strengthen the case for rate cuts, potentially boosting gold further. Oil slides as supply outlook weighs Crude oil prices continued their downward trend, pressured by expectations of increased supply from OPEC+ and concerns over slowing demand due to trade tensions. Brent futures for September delivery fell 0.46 per cent to $66.43, while WTI August contracts dropped 0.49 per cent to $64.79 per barrel. OPEC+ is expected to hike output by another 411,000 barrels per day in August, the fourth straight monthly increase. Analysts from ING Think noted that with recent supply additions, the global oil market could return to a surplus in Q4 2025, eroding the geopolitical risk premium that previously supported prices. Domestic oil futures followed suit. On the MCX, July crude contracts fell 0.48 per cent to ₹5,554 ($64.76), while August contracts slipped 0.42 per cent to ₹5,469 ($63.77). Despite easing tensions between Israel and Iran, markets remain alert to potential disruptions. Trump’s latest criticism of Japan for refusing US rice imports, posted on Truth Social, underscores the fragile nature of ongoing trade talks. With critical US economic data and policy decisions looming, investors remain on guard, balancing cautious optimism with the risk of renewed volatility in global markets.

The uncertainty weighed on sentiment across Asian markets, where export-driven economies are especially vulnerable to Trump's trade policies.

Asian markets edge higher, gold shines as investors await US policy clarity

Kodak’s fall: How the photo giant missed the digital momentfrom market leader to missed opportunity. In the late 1990s, Kodak ruled the camera world. The company owned more than 70 per cent of global film sales and earned healthy profits from prints and chemicals at that time. Yet in 1975, Kodak engineer Steve Sasson had already built the first digital camera inside the company’s own lab. Managers praised the prototype and then shelved it, fearing it would hurt film sales.Kodak kept faith in its Symbian-based hardware and low-cost point-and-shoot models, while rivals such as Sony, Canon, and, later, Apple invested in digital sensors and easy-to-use software.<h2>Wrong bets, slow decisions</h2>Internal studies warned that digital photography would surpass film within ten years. Instead of preparing, Kodak poured money into improving film quality. In 1996, it spent US $500 million on the Advantix Preview camera, which let users review pictures, but still required film and paid prints. Consumers asked: Why buy film if a digital camera can store images for free?Corporate choices deepened the slide: 1988: Kodak buys Sterling Drug for US $5.1 billion, later selling the unit at roughly half the price.<h2> Major decisions</h2>In 1989, Directors choose a film-focused Chief Executive over a digital champion, slowing change.&nbsp;2011: After years of losses, Kodak sells most patents to raise cash; in 2012 the company files for bankruptcy protection.&nbsp;By the time Kodak joined Microsoft to launch Lumia-branded camera phones in 2014, users were already loyal to the iPhone and Android ecosystems. Film sales had collapsed, and Kodak’s handset venture also failed.<h2>Lessons for today’s businessmen</h2>Business historians note the four main reasons for Kodak’s fall:&nbsp;Closed mindset – leadership ignored ideas that threatened short-term profit.&nbsp;Hardware tunnel vision – Engineers perfected film while competitors built software platforms and app stores.&nbsp;Slow strategy shift – Kodak excelled at mass production (make-and-sell) but never switched to an anticipate-and-lead model for a fast-moving market.&nbsp;Poor use of data – The firm collected strong market research, but failed to act on it.&nbsp;Today, the brand survives in specialist printing and imaging, but its consumer camera crown is gone. Kodak’s story reminds all companies that past success does not secure the future.

Kodak once led the camera market in the world, however, they missed the digital shift. Despite inventing the first digital camera, It feared hurting film sales. slow decisions and focus on old tech led to decline. Now in printing, Kodak’s fall.

Kodak’s fall: How the photo giant missed the digital moment from market leader to missed opportunity. In the late 1990s, Kodak ruled the camera world. The company owned more than 70 per cent of global film sales and earned healthy profits from prints and chemicals at that time. Yet in 1975, Kodak engineer Steve Sasson had already built the first digital camera inside the company’s own lab. Managers praised the prototype and then shelved it, fearing it would hurt film sales. Kodak kept faith in its Symbian-based hardware and low-cost point-and-shoot models, while rivals such as Sony, Canon, and, later, Apple invested in digital sensors and easy-to-use software. Wrong bets, slow decisions Internal studies warned that digital photography would surpass film within ten years. Instead of preparing, Kodak poured money into improving film quality. In 1996, it spent US $500 million on the Advantix Preview camera, which let users review pictures, but still required film and paid prints. Consumers asked: Why buy film if a digital camera can store images for free? Corporate choices deepened the slide: 1988: Kodak buys Sterling Drug for US $5.1 billion, later selling the unit at roughly half the price. Major decisions In 1989, Directors choose a film-focused Chief Executive over a digital champion, slowing change. 2011: After years of losses, Kodak sells most patents to raise cash; in 2012 the company files for bankruptcy protection. By the time Kodak joined Microsoft to launch Lumia-branded camera phones in 2014, users were already loyal to the iPhone and Android ecosystems. Film sales had collapsed, and Kodak’s handset venture also failed. Lessons for today’s businessmen Business historians note the four main reasons for Kodak’s fall: Closed mindset – leadership ignored ideas that threatened short-term profit. Hardware tunnel vision – Engineers perfected film while competitors built software platforms and app stores. Slow strategy shift – Kodak excelled at mass production (make-and-sell) but never switched to an anticipate-and-lead model for a fast-moving market. Poor use of data – The firm collected strong market research, but failed to act on it. Today, the brand survives in specialist printing and imaging, but its consumer camera crown is gone. Kodak’s story reminds all companies that past success does not secure the future.

Kodak once led the camera market in the world, however, they missed the digital shift. Despite inventing the first digital camera, It feared hurting film sales. slow decisions and focus on old tech led to decline. Now in printing, Kodak’s fall.

Kodak’s Downfall: The camera king that missed the digital revolution

Global markets kicked off the week on a turbulent note after the United States launched coordinated strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, sending shockwaves across equity, commodity, and currency markets. The Asia-Pacific region bore the brunt of the market reaction on June 23, with major indices across the region posting losses as oil prices spiked and investor sentiment turned risk-averse.Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.56 per cent, while the broader Topix shed 0.49 per cent. In South Korea, the Kospi slid 1.05 per cent, and the tech-heavy Kosdaq dropped 1.78 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.58 per cent, and mainland China’s CSI 300 index lost 0.4 per cent. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&amp;P/ASX 200 fell by 0.76 per cent as commodity stocks came under pressure due to inflation concerns.Oil prices surged on fears of further escalation in West Asia. Brent crude rose 2.14 per cent to trade at $78.66 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 2.23 per cent to $75.47.&nbsp;Analysts warned that any move by Iran to disrupt shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz—a transit point for nearly 20 per cent of global oil—could drive Brent prices past $100 per barrel. US equity futures also turned negative in early Asia hours. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 109 points, or 0.3 per cent, while S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures declined by 0.3 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively.<h2>West Asian markets rally on optimism of Iran setback</h2>In stark contrast to the global downtrend, stock markets in Israel and some Gulf countries posted notable gains. Investors in the region viewed the US and Israeli strikes as a strategic victory that may weaken Iran’s nuclear ambitions and delay any immediate retaliation, leading to a short-term boost in confidence.Israel’s Tel Aviv 125 index surged 1.8 per cent on June 22, pushing its weekly gains to nearly 8 per cent. The benchmark TA-35 index climbed 1.5 per cent. The positive sentiment follows last week’s Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, which preceded the American attacks.Markets in other parts of the Gulf also edged higher. Kuwait’s Boursa Premier Market Index rose by nearly 1 per cent, while Oman’s MSX30 Index gained 0.5 per cent. Analysts attributed the rally to hopes that Iran’s ability to project power has been temporarily curbed, potentially opening the door to improved regional security alignments.<h2>Indian equities slide sharply amid global selloff</h2>Indian equity markets mirrored the broader regional sentiment in Asia, with benchmark indices registering steep losses in early trade on June 23.The BSE Sensex crashed over 900 points, opening at 81,704.07 and hitting a low of 81,476.76. The Nifty 50 slipped below the 24,850 mark, falling more than 1 per cent to an intraday low of 24,824.85.&nbsp;Analysts pointed to weak global cues, spiking oil prices, and a strengthening US dollar as the primary drags on sentiment.The rising dollar index, which jumped nearly 0.5 per cent, added to foreign outflow concerns, pressuring Indian equities further. Market participants also flagged fears that sustained high energy costs could erode corporate margins and delay India’s economic recovery momentum.<h2>Bitcoin sinks as crypto markets react to geopolitical uncertainty</h2>Digital assets were among the first to react to the geopolitical shock, with Bitcoin plunging below the $99,000 level over the weekend—its lowest point in more than a month. The cryptocurrency has since rebounded slightly, trading just under $101,000.Ether also experienced a sharp decline, falling over 10 per cent at one point before paring some losses to settle down around 2.5 per cent. Other major cryptocurrencies such as Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin recorded similar sell-offs, dragging down the broader digital asset market.The crypto crash was attributed to a combination of rising inflation fears, potential interest rate volatility, and forced liquidations on derivatives platforms. More than $1 billion in crypto positions were wiped out over a 24-hour span, the vast majority of them from overleveraged long positions.<h2>Safe havens: Dollar gains, gold shows mixed signals</h2>The US dollar rose broadly against Asia-Pacific currencies, benefiting from its safe-haven status amid heightened geopolitical risk.&nbsp;The dollar index climbed 0.26 per cent to 98.969 by mid-morning Singapore time, strengthening against major currencies such as the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, and South Korean won.The yen weakened 0.31 per cent to 146.52 per dollar, while the South Korean won depreciated 0.45 per cent to 1,380.20. In Southeast Asia, the Philippine peso hit a new low since early April, weakening by 0.78 per cent to 57.573, while the Malaysian ringgit fell 0.64 per cent to 4.2779. The Indonesian rupiah and Thai baht also weakened significantly.Gold, another traditional safe-haven asset, was little changed after an initial surge, trading down 0.1 per cent to $3,363 per ounce. The muted reaction suggests that while investors are cautious, they are not yet pricing in a prolonged or catastrophic geopolitical crisis.Markets now await potential Iranian retaliation, with particular focus on the security of the Strait of Hormuz.&nbsp;With oil near five-month highs, equity volatility rising, and speculative assets retreating, global markets may be entering a phase of higher uncertainty and tighter financial conditions, unless geopolitical tensions de-escalate.

Asia, US markets slide amid oil surge and geopolitical tensions; Israeli stocks soar, Bitcoin tumbles

Global markets kicked off the week on a turbulent note after the United States launched coordinated strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, sending shockwaves across equity, commodity, and currency markets. The Asia-Pacific region bore the brunt of the market reaction on June 23, with major indices across the region posting losses as oil prices spiked and investor sentiment turned risk-averse. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.56 per cent, while the broader Topix shed 0.49 per cent. In South Korea, the Kospi slid 1.05 per cent, and the tech-heavy Kosdaq dropped 1.78 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.58 per cent, and mainland China’s CSI 300 index lost 0.4 per cent. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell by 0.76 per cent as commodity stocks came under pressure due to inflation concerns. Oil prices surged on fears of further escalation in West Asia. Brent crude rose 2.14 per cent to trade at $78.66 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 2.23 per cent to $75.47. Analysts warned that any move by Iran to disrupt shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz—a transit point for nearly 20 per cent of global oil—could drive Brent prices past $100 per barrel. US equity futures also turned negative in early Asia hours. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 109 points, or 0.3 per cent, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures declined by 0.3 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively. West Asian markets rally on optimism of Iran setback In stark contrast to the global downtrend, stock markets in Israel and some Gulf countries posted notable gains. Investors in the region viewed the US and Israeli strikes as a strategic victory that may weaken Iran’s nuclear ambitions and delay any immediate retaliation, leading to a short-term boost in confidence. Israel’s Tel Aviv 125 index surged 1.8 per cent on June 22, pushing its weekly gains to nearly 8 per cent. The benchmark TA-35 index climbed 1.5 per cent. The positive sentiment follows last week’s Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, which preceded the American attacks. Markets in other parts of the Gulf also edged higher. Kuwait’s Boursa Premier Market Index rose by nearly 1 per cent, while Oman’s MSX30 Index gained 0.5 per cent. Analysts attributed the rally to hopes that Iran’s ability to project power has been temporarily curbed, potentially opening the door to improved regional security alignments. Indian equities slide sharply amid global selloff Indian equity markets mirrored the broader regional sentiment in Asia, with benchmark indices registering steep losses in early trade on June 23. The BSE Sensex crashed over 900 points, opening at 81,704.07 and hitting a low of 81,476.76. The Nifty 50 slipped below the 24,850 mark, falling more than 1 per cent to an intraday low of 24,824.85. Analysts pointed to weak global cues, spiking oil prices, and a strengthening US dollar as the primary drags on sentiment. The rising dollar index, which jumped nearly 0.5 per cent, added to foreign outflow concerns, pressuring Indian equities further. Market participants also flagged fears that sustained high energy costs could erode corporate margins and delay India’s economic recovery momentum. Bitcoin sinks as crypto markets react to geopolitical uncertainty Digital assets were among the first to react to the geopolitical shock, with Bitcoin plunging below the $99,000 level over the weekend—its lowest point in more than a month. The cryptocurrency has since rebounded slightly, trading just under $101,000. Ether also experienced a sharp decline, falling over 10 per cent at one point before paring some losses to settle down around 2.5 per cent. Other major cryptocurrencies such as Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin recorded similar sell-offs, dragging down the broader digital asset market. The crypto crash was attributed to a combination of rising inflation fears, potential interest rate volatility, and forced liquidations on derivatives platforms. More than $1 billion in crypto positions were wiped out over a 24-hour span, the vast majority of them from overleveraged long positions. Safe havens: Dollar gains, gold shows mixed signals The US dollar rose broadly against Asia-Pacific currencies, benefiting from its safe-haven status amid heightened geopolitical risk. The dollar index climbed 0.26 per cent to 98.969 by mid-morning Singapore time, strengthening against major currencies such as the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, and South Korean won. The yen weakened 0.31 per cent to 146.52 per dollar, while the South Korean won depreciated 0.45 per cent to 1,380.20. In Southeast Asia, the Philippine peso hit a new low since early April, weakening by 0.78 per cent to 57.573, while the Malaysian ringgit fell 0.64 per cent to 4.2779. The Indonesian rupiah and Thai baht also weakened significantly. Gold, another traditional safe-haven asset, was little changed after an initial surge, trading down 0.1 per cent to $3,363 per ounce. The muted reaction suggests that while investors are cautious, they are not yet pricing in a prolonged or catastrophic geopolitical crisis. Markets now await potential Iranian retaliation, with particular focus on the security of the Strait of Hormuz. With oil near five-month highs, equity volatility rising, and speculative assets retreating, global markets may be entering a phase of higher uncertainty and tighter financial conditions, unless geopolitical tensions de-escalate.

Asia, US markets slide amid oil surge and geopolitical tensions; Israeli markets and other West Asian markets soar, Bitcoin tumbles.

Global markets rattle after US strikes on Iran; West Asian markets defy the trend

Global markets are bracing for turbulence after President Donald Trump announced a major US military strike on Iran on June 21, targeting key nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan.&nbsp;The attack, announced by Trump on Truth Social, marks a significant escalation in US involvement in West Asia and is expected to inject fresh volatility into global oil, equities, and commodities markets.“All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary site, Fordow,” Trump wrote, calling the mission a “very successful attack” and declaring that “now is the time for peace.”&nbsp;However, investors and analysts believe peace may be a distant hope, with markets instead bracing for fallout from a deepening crisis.<h2>Markets brace for impact</h2>While global markets were closed for the weekend when the attack was announced, analysts warned of a potential knee-jerk reaction once trading resumes. US stock futures, oil benchmarks, and safe-haven assets like gold are all expected to be impacted.“I think the markets are going to be initially alarmed, and I think oil will open higher,” Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital, told Reuters. “This is going to raise uncertainty and volatility, particularly in oil.”Jamie Cox of Harris Financial Group told Reuters that while the initial reaction may be sharp, markets may stabilise if Iran pursues a peaceful resolution. “They’ve lost all of their leverage and will likely hit the escape button on a peace deal,” Cox said, referencing the apparent destruction of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.<h2>Oil prices surge amid supply fears</h2>The most immediate market impact is expected to be on oil. Brent crude futures have already surged 18 per cent since June 13, and the recent developments are likely to add further momentum.&nbsp;Analysts at Oxford Economics had recently warned that if the conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint, prices could skyrocket to $130 per barrel. That scenario could drive US inflation close to 6 per cent by year’s end.&nbsp;While Iran exports just 1.6 million barrels of oil per day, the real risk lies in the potential for Tehran to retaliate by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of the world’s seaborne oil flows, and even a temporary closure of the strait would send shockwaves through global energy markets.However, analysts also noted that OPEC, particularly Saudi Arabia, has the capacity to cushion the blow. Saudi spare production capacity exceeds 3 million barrels per day, and OPEC has already ramped up supply in anticipation of potential disruptions.<h2>Gold and dollar to benefit from safety bid</h2>In times of geopolitical stress, investors tend to flock to traditional safe havens such as gold and the US dollar. Both assets are expected to benefit from the rising tensions.Gold, which had been trading steadily before the strike, could now see a strong rally as risk aversion climbs. The US dollar, which has stumbled in recent months amid economic uncertainty and interest rate concerns, may see short-term strength as global investors seek shelter.<h2>Equity markets may falter, but history suggests rebound</h2>Although equities are likely to sell off initially, historical patterns suggest the pullback could be short-lived. Data from previous West Asian conflicts, including the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2019 Saudi oil facility attacks, shows that markets often recover within months.“The S&amp;P 500 may initially fall, but history shows that it tends to be higher two months after these kinds of events,” analysts from Wedbush Securities told Reuters.Still, with Israel signalling that its operations will continue and Iran warning of “irreparable damage” in response to US military actions, the situation remains highly fluid.But it is not just the equity markets that are expected to take a hit, cryptocurrencies that have been soaring recently are also expected to feel the jitters of the attack.Whether the situation spirals into a wider war or stabilises through diplomacy remains to be seen. Trump’s move follows months of failed negotiations with Tehran and mounting tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. While the president called for peace, the attack may have closed off diplomatic options.As markets reopen, all eyes will be on Iran’s next move and the world’s response.

The attack, announced by Donald Trump on Truth Social, marks a significant escalation in US involvement in West Asia and is expected to inject fresh volatility into global oil, equities, and commodities markets.

Global markets are bracing for turbulence after President Donald Trump announced a major US military strike on Iran on June 21, targeting key nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. The attack, announced by Trump on Truth Social, marks a significant escalation in US involvement in West Asia and is expected to inject fresh volatility into global oil, equities, and commodities markets. “All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary site, Fordow,” Trump wrote, calling the mission a “very successful attack” and declaring that “now is the time for peace.” However, investors and analysts believe peace may be a distant hope, with markets instead bracing for fallout from a deepening crisis. Markets brace for impact While global markets were closed for the weekend when the attack was announced, analysts warned of a potential knee-jerk reaction once trading resumes. US stock futures, oil benchmarks, and safe-haven assets like gold are all expected to be impacted. “I think the markets are going to be initially alarmed, and I think oil will open higher,” Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital, told Reuters. “This is going to raise uncertainty and volatility, particularly in oil.” Jamie Cox of Harris Financial Group told Reuters that while the initial reaction may be sharp, markets may stabilise if Iran pursues a peaceful resolution. “They’ve lost all of their leverage and will likely hit the escape button on a peace deal,” Cox said, referencing the apparent destruction of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Oil prices surge amid supply fears The most immediate market impact is expected to be on oil. Brent crude futures have already surged 18 per cent since June 13, and the recent developments are likely to add further momentum. Analysts at Oxford Economics had recently warned that if the conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint, prices could skyrocket to $130 per barrel. That scenario could drive US inflation close to 6 per cent by year’s end. While Iran exports just 1.6 million barrels of oil per day, the real risk lies in the potential for Tehran to retaliate by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of the world’s seaborne oil flows, and even a temporary closure of the strait would send shockwaves through global energy markets. However, analysts also noted that OPEC, particularly Saudi Arabia, has the capacity to cushion the blow. Saudi spare production capacity exceeds 3 million barrels per day, and OPEC has already ramped up supply in anticipation of potential disruptions. Gold and dollar to benefit from safety bid In times of geopolitical stress, investors tend to flock to traditional safe havens such as gold and the US dollar. Both assets are expected to benefit from the rising tensions. Gold, which had been trading steadily before the strike, could now see a strong rally as risk aversion climbs. The US dollar, which has stumbled in recent months amid economic uncertainty and interest rate concerns, may see short-term strength as global investors seek shelter. Equity markets may falter, but history suggests rebound Although equities are likely to sell off initially, historical patterns suggest the pullback could be short-lived. Data from previous West Asian conflicts, including the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2019 Saudi oil facility attacks, shows that markets often recover within months. “The S&P 500 may initially fall, but history shows that it tends to be higher two months after these kinds of events,” analysts from Wedbush Securities told Reuters. Still, with Israel signalling that its operations will continue and Iran warning of “irreparable damage” in response to US military actions, the situation remains highly fluid. But it is not just the equity markets that are expected to take a hit, cryptocurrencies that have been soaring recently are also expected to feel the jitters of the attack. Whether the situation spirals into a wider war or stabilises through diplomacy remains to be seen. Trump’s move follows months of failed negotiations with Tehran and mounting tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. While the president called for peace, the attack may have closed off diplomatic options. As markets reopen, all eyes will be on Iran’s next move and the world’s response.

The attack, announced by Donald Trump on Truth Social, marks a significant escalation in US involvement in West Asia and is expected to inject fresh volatility into global oil, equities, and commodities markets.

US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to rattle global markets, push investors to safe havens

Friday brought some calm in the aftermath of the breakup between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump's bromance, with Wall Street stocks ending the week in the green.The solid jobs report also helped offset any worries about the trade war and its impact on the real economy.The market surge comes even as bets show a further delay in Federal Reserve rate cuts to later in the year.US stocks closed at their highest mark since February, boosting the S&amp;P 500 by about one per cent to 6,000 points.After Tesla stocks crashed over 14 per cent, wiping out more than $150 billion in market value, the EV maker recovered some ground as dip-buyers engaged significantly and flocked to the stock.Musk's very public meltdown with Trump on Thursday turned into a more calm and boring Friday, with only a couple of attacking posts on social platforms by the once best buddies.The US jobs report showed more resilience in the US economy, with the widely expected slowdown still not reflected in the labour market at least.While there will be a significant impact from the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs, the timing and the depth of the hit are hot topics of debate.<h2>Fed rate cut expectations shift</h2>The Fed on the sidelines has irked the US president, with Trump repeatedly calling for a rate cut and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's head.However, within the central bank, about 40 per cent of policymakers now expect to lower rates just once by 25 basis points at best.That is below the two rate actions, interest rate swap market is betting on, with a 70 per cent probability of one cut coming in September.While trades show September still is expected to be a live event, bets were for a 90 per cent probability before the release of non-farm payrolls data.But the other view floating among investors is that any delay in a rate cut will slip the Fed behind the curve on growth, which could force the US central bank to deliver another jumbo rate cut as it did last year.Investors will eye US consumer price inflation for cues to understand if the Fed's focus on price pressures is the best approach.Separately, a Bloomberg survey showed Wall Street stocks will put the worst of this year's trade-war turmoil behind them and rally to fresh highs in 2025.While markets have rallied in recent times, the risk of a severe pullback remains real.

The solid jobs report also helped offset any worries about the trade war and its impact on the real economy.

Friday brought some calm in the aftermath of the breakup between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump's bromance, with Wall Street stocks ending the week in the green. The solid jobs report also helped offset any worries about the trade war and its impact on the real economy. The market surge comes even as bets show a further delay in Federal Reserve rate cuts to later in the year. US stocks closed at their highest mark since February, boosting the S&P 500 by about one per cent to 6,000 points. After Tesla stocks crashed over 14 per cent, wiping out more than $150 billion in market value, the EV maker recovered some ground as dip-buyers engaged significantly and flocked to the stock. Musk's very public meltdown with Trump on Thursday turned into a more calm and boring Friday, with only a couple of attacking posts on social platforms by the once best buddies. The US jobs report showed more resilience in the US economy, with the widely expected slowdown still not reflected in the labour market at least. While there will be a significant impact from the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs, the timing and the depth of the hit are hot topics of debate. Fed rate cut expectations shift The Fed on the sidelines has irked the US president, with Trump repeatedly calling for a rate cut and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's head. However, within the central bank, about 40 per cent of policymakers now expect to lower rates just once by 25 basis points at best. That is below the two rate actions, interest rate swap market is betting on, with a 70 per cent probability of one cut coming in September. While trades show September still is expected to be a live event, bets were for a 90 per cent probability before the release of non-farm payrolls data. But the other view floating among investors is that any delay in a rate cut will slip the Fed behind the curve on growth, which could force the US central bank to deliver another jumbo rate cut as it did last year. Investors will eye US consumer price inflation for cues to understand if the Fed's focus on price pressures is the best approach. Separately, a Bloomberg survey showed Wall Street stocks will put the worst of this year's trade-war turmoil behind them and rally to fresh highs in 2025. While markets have rallied in recent times, the risk of a severe pullback remains real.

The solid jobs report also helped offset any worries about the trade war and its impact on the real economy.

Markets rally despite Musk-Trump rift, but what’s next?

Indian equity markets ended the week on a high note, propelled by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) unexpected move to slash the repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) and the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 100 bps.The aggressive policy easing reversed two weeks of negative sentiment, sparking a strong rally across sectors. The Nifty surged past the 25,000 mark closing at 25,003.05 after rising 252.15 points, or 1.02 per cent. While the Sensex gained 746.95 points, or 0.92 per cent, to close at 82,188.99, marking one of the strongest weekly performances in recent times.<h2>Rate-sensitive sectors drive gains</h2>The RBI’s policy, coupled with a shift in stance from ‘accommodative’ to ‘neutral’, signalled a decisive pro-growth pivot, igniting optimism among investors.The Nifty Realty index surged 4.68 per cent, emerging as the top-performing sector, as hopes of a housing demand revival gained momentum. Financials followed closely, with the Nifty Bank and Financial Services indices climbing 1.5 per cent and 1.75 per cent, respectively, driven by gains in top lenders and NBFCs. Auto stocks also rallied, contributing to the upbeat sentiment.Market heavyweights HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance were among the biggest individual contributors to the Nifty’s rally, adding 48 and 25 points, respectively. Axis Bank, M&amp;M, and Shriram Finance also featured prominently among the top gainers.Meanwhile, the broader markets outperformed, with the Nifty Midcap index rising 3 per cent for the week and 1.2 per cent on June 6 alone. The Nifty Smallcap index added 0.8 per cent.<h2>Investors add ₹3.6 lakh crore in a single session</h2>The RBI’s dovish stance had an immediate impact on investor wealth. The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies jumped by ₹3.6 lakh crore (nearly $42 billion) in Friday’s session alone, pushing total market cap to ₹451.1 lakh crore (almost $5,262 billion).The advance-decline ratio remained robust at 3:2, signalling widespread investor participation. In total, 46 out of the 50 Nifty stocks posted gains during the week, with some surging over 10 per cent.Notably, gold loan financiers like Muthoot Finance saw strong buying interest as the RBI hinted at easing norms for unsecured loans, further lifting sector sentiment.<h2>Markets eye further upside; analysts advise caution</h2>Despite the week’s strong gains, analysts maintain a cautious optimism. The Nifty, while still in a consolidation phase, is now eyeing a breakout above the 25,200 level. A decisive move beyond this could pave the way for a fresh rally towards 25,600. Technical indicators remain supportive, particularly with the Nifty Bank index touching a new 52-week high of 56,584.Volatility also declined, with the India VIX falling over 2 per cent, indicating cooling risk perception. Meanwhile, the RBI’s decision to lower the CPI inflation forecast for FY26 to 3.7 per cent further strengthened the case for an extended easing cycle.Looking ahead, rate-sensitive sectors like financials, realty, and auto are expected to stay in focus. Themes like infrastructure and railways could also benefit from the evolving pro-growth environment.

The aggressive policy easing reversed two weeks of negative sentiment, sparking a strong rally across sectors. The Nifty surged past the 25,000 mark 

Indian equity markets ended the week on a high note, propelled by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) unexpected move to slash the repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) and the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 100 bps. The aggressive policy easing reversed two weeks of negative sentiment, sparking a strong rally across sectors. The Nifty surged past the 25,000 mark closing at 25,003.05 after rising 252.15 points, or 1.02 per cent. While the Sensex gained 746.95 points, or 0.92 per cent, to close at 82,188.99, marking one of the strongest weekly performances in recent times. Rate-sensitive sectors drive gains The RBI’s policy, coupled with a shift in stance from ‘accommodative’ to ‘neutral’, signalled a decisive pro-growth pivot, igniting optimism among investors. The Nifty Realty index surged 4.68 per cent, emerging as the top-performing sector, as hopes of a housing demand revival gained momentum. Financials followed closely, with the Nifty Bank and Financial Services indices climbing 1.5 per cent and 1.75 per cent, respectively, driven by gains in top lenders and NBFCs. Auto stocks also rallied, contributing to the upbeat sentiment. Market heavyweights HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance were among the biggest individual contributors to the Nifty’s rally, adding 48 and 25 points, respectively. Axis Bank, M&M, and Shriram Finance also featured prominently among the top gainers. Meanwhile, the broader markets outperformed, with the Nifty Midcap index rising 3 per cent for the week and 1.2 per cent on June 6 alone. The Nifty Smallcap index added 0.8 per cent. Investors add ₹3.6 lakh crore in a single session The RBI’s dovish stance had an immediate impact on investor wealth. The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies jumped by ₹3.6 lakh crore (nearly $42 billion) in Friday’s session alone, pushing total market cap to ₹451.1 lakh crore (almost $5,262 billion). The advance-decline ratio remained robust at 3:2, signalling widespread investor participation. In total, 46 out of the 50 Nifty stocks posted gains during the week, with some surging over 10 per cent. Notably, gold loan financiers like Muthoot Finance saw strong buying interest as the RBI hinted at easing norms for unsecured loans, further lifting sector sentiment. Markets eye further upside; analysts advise caution Despite the week’s strong gains, analysts maintain a cautious optimism. The Nifty, while still in a consolidation phase, is now eyeing a breakout above the 25,200 level. A decisive move beyond this could pave the way for a fresh rally towards 25,600. Technical indicators remain supportive, particularly with the Nifty Bank index touching a new 52-week high of 56,584. Volatility also declined, with the India VIX falling over 2 per cent, indicating cooling risk perception. Meanwhile, the RBI’s decision to lower the CPI inflation forecast for FY26 to 3.7 per cent further strengthened the case for an extended easing cycle. Looking ahead, rate-sensitive sectors like financials, realty, and auto are expected to stay in focus. Themes like infrastructure and railways could also benefit from the evolving pro-growth environment.

The aggressive policy easing reversed two weeks of negative sentiment, sparking a strong rally across sectors. The Nifty surged past the 25,000 mark.

Indian equity markets ride the RBI rate cut tide to recoup losses

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