As the current China India standoff in Eastern Ladakh rolls over to harsher winters, under the shadow of multiple rounds talks at various levels, the proposed plan of three-step disengagement from Pangong lake area, discussed during the eight round of talks between military commanders indicates some forward movement.

Both sides in the interim, continue to prepare for prolonged standoff with continued troop build-up, arsenal, equipment, along with information warfare including psychological battle, despite increasing cost in terms of weather casualties besides financial burden and logistics challenges.

In this strategic game of Chinese Chequer on Line of Actual Control (LAC) and elsewhere, both sides have made strategic and operational moves, some of which have gone in their favour and some against them. It's however, evident to Chinese that it may be easy to start a standoff on unsettled borders, but its extremely difficult to get a graceful exit. &nbsp; &nbsp;

How is China looking at Disengagement?&nbsp;

China, having marched in areas, where it was not supposed to be, junking all CBMs, as part of overall ‘Incremental Encroachment Strategy’, to unilaterally alter the status quo along LAC in its favour and expecting India to accept nominal disengagement, while Chinese troops continue to be sitting in Depsang, Finger 8 to Finger 4 &nbsp;was a miscalculation.

Indian quick response, and national resolve amidst COVID19 pandemic, combined with proactive posturing for effective domination of some Chushul heights/Kailash Range, in areas South of Pangong Tso and some heights North of Finger 4 surprised them.&nbsp;

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Indian determination not to concede unilateral shift of LAC and prepare for ‘Two-Front War’ should the situation so demand, has added to the discomfort of Chinese besides increasing numbers of weather casualties.

Chinese already have better infrastructure on their side and can quickly move into areas, where they moved in May 2020, hence pulling back in winters and retaining an option to replicate similar encroachment in summer months suits its overall strategic design, besides avoiding heavy weather casualties and resultant financial and political cost. Chinese are also concerned that any pullback without a mutual agreement can lead to Indians occupying some important features vacated by them.&nbsp;

Analysis of Three-Step Disengagement Plan &nbsp;&nbsp;

The plan envisages pullback of mechanised elements and heavy arsenal from forward deployment along the LACs, to depth areas to reduce chances of miscalculation on either side as first step.

The second step involves PLA pulling back from Finger 4 to Finger 8, removing all temporary structures and deployments in between since May and then establishing it as a ‘no-patrolling’ zone for both sides in foreseeable future, as against such practice existing before May 2020.

The third and last step involves pulling back from heights South of Pangong Tso including heights occupied by Indian Army on Kailash Range (both shoulders of strategic Spanggur Gap). The proposed plan does not address Chinese encroachment in Depsang plains and Y Junction, and opening that area for Indian patrols, thus helping Chinese aim to provide depth to Karakoram Pass and NH219.&nbsp;

Indian Concerns

Indian decision-makers need to consider some concerns, before agreeing to such proposals so that it doesn’t become another historic mistake. Firstly, the plan must secure Indian interest in Depsang plains and Y Junction and address vulnerability of DBO; hence vacation of the same by PLA must be integral to any disengagement plan.

Secondly, the standoff was started unilaterally by China, and through this disengagement plan, it is seeking a winter break to avoid casualties on their terms, knocking off the advantage which Indian military achieved South of Pangong Tso.

Thirdly, China with better infrastructure can again encroach much faster in Finger and Depsang area than India, forcing it to be reactive once again. Fourthly, vacating Kailash range will be a major strategic and tactical disadvantage to India.&nbsp;

Do we have other options?

While the human, financial and political cost of prolonged standoff is understandable, it needs to be noted that so long LAC is not demarcated, Chinese encroachment and standoff will continue, whenever China wants to give some strategic messaging to India.

Presently, if the standoff is prolonged and some improvement of Indian posturing is carried out in winters, which is tough, but not impossible, it may pay better dividend in negotiating a demarcation of LAC, although troops will have to rough out longer.

A quick fix solution will only postpone the next standoff and may lead to LOCization of LAC, which is almost the same as prolonged standoff, in terms of cost.&nbsp;

It may be prudent, not to run into any quick-fix solution, but endure to create conditions for a long-lasting strategic solution. It will also be in Indian interest, to be in sync with stance of global democracies to withstand Chinese expansionism in Indo-Pacific Region, where Chinese sea lanes of communications are vulnerable, rather than be seen to be compromising with China on bilateral basis, thus reducing its global pressure by dropping one friction point to China’s advantage, too soon. &nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do&nbsp;not represent the views of&nbsp;WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse&nbsp;the views of the writer)

As the current China India standoff in Eastern Ladakh rolls over to harsher winters, under the shadow of multiple rounds talks at various levels, the proposed plan of three-step disengagement from Pangong lake area, discussed during the eight round of talks between military commanders indicates some forward movement.

As the current China India standoff in Eastern Ladakh rolls over to harsher winters, under the shadow of multiple rounds talks at various levels, the proposed plan of three-step disengagement from Pangong lake area, discussed during the eight round of talks between military commanders indicates some forward movement. Both sides in the interim, continue to prepare for prolonged standoff with continued troop build-up, arsenal, equipment, along with information warfare including psychological battle, despite increasing cost in terms of weather casualties besides financial burden and logistics challenges. In this strategic game of Chinese Chequer on Line of Actual Control (LAC) and elsewhere, both sides have made strategic and operational moves, some of which have gone in their favour and some against them. It's however, evident to Chinese that it may be easy to start a standoff on unsettled borders, but its extremely difficult to get a graceful exit. How is China looking at Disengagement? China, having marched in areas, where it was not supposed to be, junking all CBMs, as part of overall ‘Incremental Encroachment Strategy’, to unilaterally alter the status quo along LAC in its favour and expecting India to accept nominal disengagement, while Chinese troops continue to be sitting in Depsang, Finger 8 to Finger 4 was a miscalculation. Indian quick response, and national resolve amidst COVID19 pandemic, combined with proactive posturing for effective domination of some Chushul heights/Kailash Range, in areas South of Pangong Tso and some heights North of Finger 4 surprised them. × Indian determination not to concede unilateral shift of LAC and prepare for ‘Two-Front War’ should the situation so demand, has added to the discomfort of Chinese besides increasing numbers of weather casualties. Chinese already have better infrastructure on their side and can quickly move into areas, where they moved in May 2020, hence pulling back in winters and retaining an option to replicate similar encroachment in summer months suits its overall strategic design, besides avoiding heavy weather casualties and resultant financial and political cost. Chinese are also concerned that any pullback without a mutual agreement can lead to Indians occupying some important features vacated by them. Analysis of Three-Step Disengagement Plan The plan envisages pullback of mechanised elements and heavy arsenal from forward deployment along the LACs, to depth areas to reduce chances of miscalculation on either side as first step. The second step involves PLA pulling back from Finger 4 to Finger 8, removing all temporary structures and deployments in between since May and then establishing it as a ‘no-patrolling’ zone for both sides in foreseeable future, as against such practice existing before May 2020. The third and last step involves pulling back from heights South of Pangong Tso including heights occupied by Indian Army on Kailash Range (both shoulders of strategic Spanggur Gap). The proposed plan does not address Chinese encroachment in Depsang plains and Y Junction, and opening that area for Indian patrols, thus helping Chinese aim to provide depth to Karakoram Pass and NH219. Indian Concerns Indian decision-makers need to consider some concerns, before agreeing to such proposals so that it doesn’t become another historic mistake. Firstly, the plan must secure Indian interest in Depsang plains and Y Junction and address vulnerability of DBO; hence vacation of the same by PLA must be integral to any disengagement plan. Secondly, the standoff was started unilaterally by China, and through this disengagement plan, it is seeking a winter break to avoid casualties on their terms, knocking off the advantage which Indian military achieved South of Pangong Tso. Thirdly, China with better infrastructure can again encroach much faster in Finger and Depsang area than India, forcing it to be reactive once again. Fourthly, vacating Kailash range will be a major strategic and tactical disadvantage to India. Do we have other options? While the human, financial and political cost of prolonged standoff is understandable, it needs to be noted that so long LAC is not demarcated, Chinese encroachment and standoff will continue, whenever China wants to give some strategic messaging to India. Presently, if the standoff is prolonged and some improvement of Indian posturing is carried out in winters, which is tough, but not impossible, it may pay better dividend in negotiating a demarcation of LAC, although troops will have to rough out longer. A quick fix solution will only postpone the next standoff and may lead to LOCization of LAC, which is almost the same as prolonged standoff, in terms of cost. It may be prudent, not to run into any quick-fix solution, but endure to create conditions for a long-lasting strategic solution. It will also be in Indian interest, to be in sync with stance of global democracies to withstand Chinese expansionism in Indo-Pacific Region, where Chinese sea lanes of communications are vulnerable, rather than be seen to be compromising with China on bilateral basis, thus reducing its global pressure by dropping one friction point to China’s advantage, too soon. (Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer)

India-China standoff: Not quick-fix but a long-lasting strategic solution is required

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is carrying out intensive night operations over the Eastern Ladakh sector, involving its fighter aircraft including the MiG-29 and Sukhoi-30MKI along with its Apache attack helicopters and the Chinook heavy-lift helicopters, according to news agency ANI.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is carrying out intensive night operations over the Eastern Ladakh sector, involving its fighter aircraft including the MiG-29 and Sukhoi-30MKI along with its Apache attack helicopters and the Chinook heavy-lift helicopters, according to news agency ANI. Notwithstanding the strong winds and the chilling weather, the ground crew and pilots are flying using even very small windows when the wind speed is low, the report said. Explaining the significance of the operations, senior fighter pilot Group Captain A Rathi deployed at the forward base told ANI, "Night operations have an inherent element of surprise. Indian Air Force is fully trained and ready to undertake an entire spectrum of operations in any environment with the help of modern platforms and highly motivated personnel." The pilots of the Apache choppers could be seen flying with their night vision goggles which allows them to navigate through the mountains around the airbase and the darkness in the night, the report added. The strong late evening winds at the airbase and the weather warning almost led to calling off the night sorties but around 10 PM everyone was back to their respective aircraft as the wind speed receded. Soon after, the mighty Chinook choppers came out on the runway and hovered for some time adjusting to the wind speeds before taking off towards the eastern parts of Ladakh. The Chinook with its high tech gadgets and navigation aids is fully ready for 24x7 operations and played a big role in transferring troops to the Line of Actual Control from rear locations. ''The motivation level of troops at the airbase is very high. The morale is very high like our motto Nabha Sparsham Deeptam (Touch the Sky with Glory)," Warrant Officer P Sharma told. The entire base with its flurry of activities is playing a crucial role in enhancing the combat preparedness of the country along the China border. "This base plays a very important role in undertaking operations in this area. It is cleared for all contingencies and all combat and support operations to be undertaken in this area," a Flight Lieutenant had told on the importance of the forward airfield. The officer had stated that given the operations along the borders with China after the clash in Galwan valley and the tensions at the border, "Air Power will play an important role in this area in both combat and support roles. We have all the resources in terms of men and equipment to meet all the challenges." "The Indian Air Force is ready in all aspects to undertake all operational talks and providing the requisite support for all military operations," the Wing Commander had added. Air activities in the Ladakh area and other places along the China border had gone up extensively soon after the Chinese started building up and went up further after the Galwan valley clash on June 15 in which 20 Indian Army men lost their lives.

IAF carrying out intensive night-time operations over Eastern Ladakh

An Army officer and two jawans were killed during a "violent stand-off" between Indian and Chinese troops in eastern Ladakh on June 15. In a statement, the Indian Army said that the senior military officials of India and China are currently meeting to defuse the situation in the region

'Casualties suffered on both sides in violent face-off at Galwan valley' says Indian Army

The high-level dialogue between Chinese and Indian militaries was "positive", and both sides vowed to continue the talks to end the "tussle", Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on Monday on the eastern Ladakh standoff, asserting that the government will not allow India's pride and self-respect to be hurt at any cost.

His comments indicating India's resolve to deal with the row with a firm approach came even as the two armies remained engaged in a bitter confrontation in several areas in eastern Ladakh including Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso.

The defence minister, addressing a virtual rally for the people in Maharashtra, also came down hard on Congress leader Rahul Gandhi for his remarks that the government should ?come clean" and tell the country what is happening on the border with China.

"The talks held on June 6 were quite positive. India and China have agreed to continue the talks to resolve the border issue including the current tussle. I want to assure people that leadership of the country is in strong hands and we will not compromise on India's pride and self-respect at any cost," the defence minister said.

Talking about decades-old border row with China, Singh said India wants its resolution as soon as possible, adding the military and diplomatic engagement between the two sides to end the current row continues.

"India's policy has been to not hurt anyone's dignity and honour. At the same time, we do not allow the country's honour and self-respect to be hurt.

On Gandhi's comments, Singh said the whole country should be united on such an issue and have faith in the capability of the armed forces.

"I cannot even imagine that any political leader will make such comments on an issue of the country's security.... As the defence minister, I will say whatever I have to say in Parliament," he said.

"Do not try to tell us (about our responsibility). There is a dispute between the two countries and the whole country should stand united," he added

Indian and Chinese troops were engaged in a month-long confrontation since May 5 following a violent clash in Pangong Tso which is turning out to be biggest military standoff after the 2017 Doklam episode.

In their first serious efforts to end the row, Lt General Harinder Singh, the general officer commanding of Leh-based 14 Corps, and Commander of the Tibet Military District Maj Gen Liu Lin held an extensive meeting on Saturday. However, it could not produce any tangible results.

In a statement, the external affairs ministry on Sunday said the meeting took place in a "cordial and positive atmosphere" and that both sides agreed that an "early resolution" of the issue would contribute to the further development of the relationship between the two countries.

The high-level dialogue between Chinese and Indian militaries was "positive", and both sides vowed to continue the talks to end the "tussle", Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on Monday on the eastern Ladakh standoff, asserting that the government will not allow India's pride and self-respect to be hurt at any cost.

The high-level dialogue between Chinese and Indian militaries was "positive", and both sides vowed to continue the talks to end the "tussle", Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on Monday on the eastern Ladakh standoff, asserting that the government will not allow India's pride and self-respect to be hurt at any cost. His comments indicating India's resolve to deal with the row with a firm approach came even as the two armies remained engaged in a bitter confrontation in several areas in eastern Ladakh including Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso. The defence minister, addressing a virtual rally for the people in Maharashtra, also came down hard on Congress leader Rahul Gandhi for his remarks that the government should ?come clean" and tell the country what is happening on the border with China. "The talks held on June 6 were quite positive. India and China have agreed to continue the talks to resolve the border issue including the current tussle. I want to assure people that leadership of the country is in strong hands and we will not compromise on India's pride and self-respect at any cost," the defence minister said. Talking about decades-old border row with China, Singh said India wants its resolution as soon as possible, adding the military and diplomatic engagement between the two sides to end the current row continues. "India's policy has been to not hurt anyone's dignity and honour. At the same time, we do not allow the country's honour and self-respect to be hurt. On Gandhi's comments, Singh said the whole country should be united on such an issue and have faith in the capability of the armed forces. "I cannot even imagine that any political leader will make such comments on an issue of the country's security.... As the defence minister, I will say whatever I have to say in Parliament," he said. "Do not try to tell us (about our responsibility). There is a dispute between the two countries and the whole country should stand united," he added Indian and Chinese troops were engaged in a month-long confrontation since May 5 following a violent clash in Pangong Tso which is turning out to be biggest military standoff after the 2017 Doklam episode. In their first serious efforts to end the row, Lt General Harinder Singh, the general officer commanding of Leh-based 14 Corps, and Commander of the Tibet Military District Maj Gen Liu Lin held an extensive meeting on Saturday. However, it could not produce any tangible results. In a statement, the external affairs ministry on Sunday said the meeting took place in a "cordial and positive atmosphere" and that both sides agreed that an "early resolution" of the issue would contribute to the further development of the relationship between the two countries.

Will not allow India's pride and self-respect to be hurt: Rajnath on eastern Ladakh row

The third India-China ceremonial border personnel meeting (BPM) in a month's time took place on Saturday in eastern Ladakh. The meet took place on the occasion of the Chinese spring festival at the Chinese BPM huts at Chushul-Moldo and DBO-TWD (Daulat Beg Oldie-Ten Wen Den) meeting points.

The Indian delegation was led by led by Brig VK Purohit and Col SS Lamba, the Chinese delegation by Sr Col Bai Min and Col Song Zhang Li.

According to a press release from the Indian Army, both sides focused on "mutual desire for maintaining and improving relations at the functional level at the border." &nbsp;

The release added that "both sides also sought to build on the mutual desire to maintain peace and tranquillity along the border."&nbsp;<img alt="india-china bpm meet" data-align="left" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d76dbf2-a889-4f00-a4f0-943295f793e1" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%2885%29_0.jpg" />

<img alt="india-china bpm meeting2" data-align="left" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fef6f72f-e710-41de-9093-946f00d67209" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%2884%29.jpg" />The first such meeting this year happened on January 1 to celebrate New Year's Day followed by a second on January 26 on India's Republic Day.

Last week saw the thirteenth meeting of the working mechanism for consultation and coordination on India-China border affairs during which the Indian side reiterated the "importance of maintaining peace and tranquillity in the border areas as a prerequisite to smooth development", according to a release from the ministry of external affairs.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met 4 times in 2018, starting with the famous Wuhan informal summit in April.&nbsp;

Xi will visit India this year for the second informal summit.

The third India-China ceremonial border personnel meeting (BPM) in a month's time took place on Saturday in eastern Ladakh. The meet took place on the occasion of the Chinese spring festival at the Chinese BPM huts at Chushul-Moldo and DBO-TWD (Daulat Beg Oldie-Ten Wen Den) meeting points.

The third India-China ceremonial border personnel meeting (BPM) in a month's time took place on Saturday in eastern Ladakh. The meet took place on the occasion of the Chinese spring festival at the Chinese BPM huts at Chushul-Moldo and DBO-TWD (Daulat Beg Oldie-Ten Wen Den) meeting points. The Indian delegation was led by led by Brig VK Purohit and Col SS Lamba, the Chinese delegation by Sr Col Bai Min and Col Song Zhang Li. According to a press release from the Indian Army, both sides focused on "mutual desire for maintaining and improving relations at the functional level at the border." The release added that "both sides also sought to build on the mutual desire to maintain peace and tranquillity along the border." The first such meeting this year happened on January 1 to celebrate New Year's Day followed by a second on January 26 on India's Republic Day. Last week saw the thirteenth meeting of the working mechanism for consultation and coordination on India-China border affairs during which the Indian side reiterated the "importance of maintaining peace and tranquillity in the border areas as a prerequisite to smooth development", according to a release from the ministry of external affairs. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met 4 times in 2018, starting with the famous Wuhan informal summit in April. Xi will visit India this year for the second informal summit.

India-China border personnel meet for third time in 1 month

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India-China standoff: Not quick-fix but a long-lasting strategic solution is required

IAF carrying out intensive night-time operations over Eastern Ladakh

'Casualties suffered on both sides in violent face-off at Galwan valley' says Indian Army

Will not allow India's pride and self-respect to be hurt: Rajnath on eastern Ladakh row

India-China border personnel meet for third time in 1 month