British Prime Minister Theresa May said she would seek a "pragmatic solution" to a parliamentary impasse over the terms on which Britain leaves the European Union when she tries to reopen talks with Brussels.&nbsp;

May, writing in The Sunday Telegraph newspaper, shed little light on how she intended to solve the issue that has provoked most opposition from her lawmakers, post-Brexit arrangements for the border between the United Kingdom and Ireland.

Last month May suffered a record parliament defeat over her Brexit plans, and on Tuesday lawmakers instructed her to return to Brussels to renegotiate arrangements for Northern Ireland.

Lawmakers "would ... be happy with the current backstop if there was a time limit or unilateral exit mechanism," May wrote.

However, Ireland and EU negotiators have rejected any time-limit on the so-called 'backstop' -- a set of fall-back plans that would retain an open UK-Ireland border if Britain and the EU fail to reach a longer-term trade agreement in future talks.

Brexit supporters fear an unlimited backstop would effectively give the EU a veto on future British trade arrangements with other countries, and weaken economic ties between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

May is expected to visit Brussels in the coming days.

"When I return to Brussels I will be battling for Britain and Northern Ireland, I will be armed with a fresh mandate, new ideas and a renewed determination to agree a pragmatic solution that delivers the Brexit the British people voted for," May said.

Separately, May's office rejected a report in the Mail on Sunday newspaper that her advisors were considering an early election on June 6 if she got a Brexit deal through parliament.

Denies June 6 election plan

May's office denied a report in the Mail on Sunday newspaper that the prime minister's advisors were considering scheduling a national election for June 6.

"It's 100 per cent untrue," a Downing Street spokeswoman said about the article, which reported that May's advisors were considering a June 6 election under a scenario in which Brexit was delayed past March 29 but May subsequently won parliament's backing for a withdrawal deal in April.

The article itself quoted an unnamed minister describing the plan as a bid by "second-rate staff desperate to keep their jobs".

May called an unexpected election at short notice in 2017, after which she lost her Conservative Party's small majority and had to rely on support from Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party to continue to govern.

British Prime Minister Theresa May said she would seek a "pragmatic solution" to a parliamentary impasse over the terms on which Britain leaves the European Union when she tries to reopen talks with Brussels.

British Prime Minister Theresa May said she would seek a "pragmatic solution" to a parliamentary impasse over the terms on which Britain leaves the European Union when she tries to reopen talks with Brussels. May, writing in The Sunday Telegraph newspaper, shed little light on how she intended to solve the issue that has provoked most opposition from her lawmakers, post-Brexit arrangements for the border between the United Kingdom and Ireland. Last month May suffered a record parliament defeat over her Brexit plans, and on Tuesday lawmakers instructed her to return to Brussels to renegotiate arrangements for Northern Ireland. Lawmakers "would ... be happy with the current backstop if there was a time limit or unilateral exit mechanism," May wrote. However, Ireland and EU negotiators have rejected any time-limit on the so-called 'backstop' -- a set of fall-back plans that would retain an open UK-Ireland border if Britain and the EU fail to reach a longer-term trade agreement in future talks. Brexit supporters fear an unlimited backstop would effectively give the EU a veto on future British trade arrangements with other countries, and weaken economic ties between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. May is expected to visit Brussels in the coming days. "When I return to Brussels I will be battling for Britain and Northern Ireland, I will be armed with a fresh mandate, new ideas and a renewed determination to agree a pragmatic solution that delivers the Brexit the British people voted for," May said. Separately, May's office rejected a report in the Mail on Sunday newspaper that her advisors were considering an early election on June 6 if she got a Brexit deal through parliament. Denies June 6 election plan May's office denied a report in the Mail on Sunday newspaper that the prime minister's advisors were considering scheduling a national election for June 6. "It's 100 per cent untrue," a Downing Street spokeswoman said about the article, which reported that May's advisors were considering a June 6 election under a scenario in which Brexit was delayed past March 29 but May subsequently won parliament's backing for a withdrawal deal in April. The article itself quoted an unnamed minister describing the plan as a bid by "second-rate staff desperate to keep their jobs". May called an unexpected election at short notice in 2017, after which she lost her Conservative Party's small majority and had to rely on support from Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party to continue to govern.

British PM May says she will seek 'pragmatic' Brexit solution in Brussels

British officials have revived Cold War emergency plans to relocate the royal family should there be riots in London if Britain suffers a disruptive departure from the European Union next month, two Sunday newspapers reported.

"These emergency evacuation plans have been in existence since the Cold War, but have now been repurposed in the event of civil disorder following a no-deal Brexit," the Sunday Times said, quoting an unnamed source from the government's Cabinet Office, which handles sensitive administrative issues.

The Mail on Sunday also said it had learnt of plans to move the royal family, including Queen Elizabeth, to safe locations away from London.

Britain's government is struggling to get parliamentary support for a Brexit transition agreement with the EU before the departure date of March 29, and the government and businesses are preparing contingency plans for a 'no-deal' Brexit.

Business groups have warned of widespread disruption if there are lengthy delays to EU imports due to new customs checks, and even possible shortages of food and medicine.

Last month an annual speech by the 92-year-old queen to a local women's group was widely interpreted in Britain as a call for politicians to reach an agreement over Brexit.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, a Conservative lawmaker and keen supporter of Brexit, told the Mail on Sunday he believed the plans showed unnecessary panic by officials over a no-deal Brexit, as senior royals had remained in London during World War Two bombing.

But the Sunday Times said an ex-police officer formerly in charge of royal protection, Dai Davies, expected Queen Elizabeth would be moved out of London if there was unrest.

"If there were problems in London, clearly you would remove the royal family away from those key sites," Davies was quoted as saying.

British officials have revived Cold War emergency plans to relocate the royal family should there be riots in London if Britain suffers a disruptive departure from the European Union next month, two Sunday newspapers reported.

British officials have revived Cold War emergency plans to relocate the royal family should there be riots in London if Britain suffers a disruptive departure from the European Union next month, two Sunday newspapers reported. "These emergency evacuation plans have been in existence since the Cold War, but have now been repurposed in the event of civil disorder following a no-deal Brexit," the Sunday Times said, quoting an unnamed source from the government's Cabinet Office, which handles sensitive administrative issues. The Mail on Sunday also said it had learnt of plans to move the royal family, including Queen Elizabeth, to safe locations away from London. Britain's government is struggling to get parliamentary support for a Brexit transition agreement with the EU before the departure date of March 29, and the government and businesses are preparing contingency plans for a 'no-deal' Brexit. Business groups have warned of widespread disruption if there are lengthy delays to EU imports due to new customs checks, and even possible shortages of food and medicine. Last month an annual speech by the 92-year-old queen to a local women's group was widely interpreted in Britain as a call for politicians to reach an agreement over Brexit. Jacob Rees-Mogg, a Conservative lawmaker and keen supporter of Brexit, told the Mail on Sunday he believed the plans showed unnecessary panic by officials over a no-deal Brexit, as senior royals had remained in London during World War Two bombing. But the Sunday Times said an ex-police officer formerly in charge of royal protection, Dai Davies, expected Queen Elizabeth would be moved out of London if there was unrest. "If there were problems in London, clearly you would remove the royal family away from those key sites," Davies was quoted as saying.

Queen Elizabeth to be evacuated in case of Brexit unrest: Report

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/iran-warns-europe-not-to-force-strategic-leap-on-missile-range-194816">Do not thwart our missile development or we 'will be forced to make strategic leap': Iran</a>

The deputy chief of Iran's Revolutionary Guards has warned Europe against forcing the Islamic Republic into boosting the range of its missiles by trying to halt their development.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/will-break-backbone-of-terror-in-jammu-and-kashmir-pm-narendra-modi-194857">Will break backbone of terror in Jammu and Kashmir: PM Narendra Modi</a>

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Sunday in Srinagar that his government would "break the backbone of terror in Jammu and Kashmir".&nbsp;

"We will break the backbone of terror in Jammu and Kashmir and fight it with all our might," Modi said.&nbsp;

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-general-elections-2019/yogi-adityanath-addresses-rally-in-west-bengal-via-audio-link-after-his-chopper-was-denied-permission-194825">Bengal government 'anti-democratic', says Yogi Adityanath after his chopper is refused permission to land</a>

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has cancelled his rally at West Bengal's Raiganj and Balurghat after his chopper was refused permission to land by the Mamata Banerjee-led government.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/uk-trade-minister-says-eu-irresponsible-to-refuse-to-reopen-brexit-deal-194815">UK trade minister says EU 'irresponsible' to refuse to reopen Brexit deal</a>

It would be irresponsible for the European Union to refuse to reopen negotiations over Britain's exit deal, British trade minister Liam Fox said in an interview aired on Sunday.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/sports/5th-odi-india-beat-new-zealand-by-35-runs-win-series-4-1-194799">5th ODI: India beat New Zealand by 35 runs, win series 4-1</a>

India's bowlers rattled New Zealand's batsmen to win the fifth and final ODI by 35 runs at the Westpac Stadium, Wellington. That also meant they won the ODI series 4-1, having lost the fourth ODI at Hamilton by eight wickets.

Do not thwart our missile development or we 'will be forced to make strategic leap': Iran The deputy chief of Iran's Revolutionary Guards has warned Europe against forcing the Islamic Republic into boosting the range of its missiles by trying to halt their development.

Do not thwart our missile development or we 'will be forced to make strategic leap': Iran The deputy chief of Iran's Revolutionary Guards has warned Europe against forcing the Islamic Republic into boosting the range of its missiles by trying to halt their development. Will break backbone of terror in Jammu and Kashmir: PM Narendra Modi Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Sunday in Srinagar that his government would "break the backbone of terror in Jammu and Kashmir". "We will break the backbone of terror in Jammu and Kashmir and fight it with all our might," Modi said. Bengal government 'anti-democratic', says Yogi Adityanath after his chopper is refused permission to land Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has cancelled his rally at West Bengal's Raiganj and Balurghat after his chopper was refused permission to land by the Mamata Banerjee-led government. UK trade minister says EU 'irresponsible' to refuse to reopen Brexit deal It would be irresponsible for the European Union to refuse to reopen negotiations over Britain's exit deal, British trade minister Liam Fox said in an interview aired on Sunday. 5th ODI: India beat New Zealand by 35 runs, win series 4-1 India's bowlers rattled New Zealand's batsmen to win the fifth and final ODI by 35 runs at the Westpac Stadium, Wellington. That also meant they won the ODI series 4-1, having lost the fourth ODI at Hamilton by eight wickets.

News brief: Big stories of the day

Japanese car manufacturer Nissan announced Sunday it was cancelling plans to build its X-Trail SUV at its plant in northeast England despite Brexit assurances from the government.

"While we have taken this decision for business reasons, the continued uncertainty around the UK's future relationship with the EU is not helping companies like ours to plan for the future," Nissan Europe Chairman Gianluca de Ficchy said in a statement.

The car giant announced in 2016 that it planned to build the model at its plant in Sunderland, but will now assemble it instead at Nissan's global production hub in Kyushu, Japan.&nbsp;

"Other future models planned for Nissan Sunderland Plant -- the next-generation Juke and Qashqai -- are unaffected," added the statement.

"A model like X-Trail is manufactured in multiple locations globally, and can, therefore, be re-evaluated based on changes to the business environment," said Hideyuki Sakamoto, Nissan's executive vice president for manufacturing and supply chain management.

Japanese car manufacturer Nissan announced Sunday it was cancelling plans to build its X-Trail SUV at its plant in northeast England despite Brexit assurances from the government.

Japanese car manufacturer Nissan announced Sunday it was cancelling plans to build its X-Trail SUV at its plant in northeast England despite Brexit assurances from the government. "While we have taken this decision for business reasons, the continued uncertainty around the UK's future relationship with the EU is not helping companies like ours to plan for the future," Nissan Europe Chairman Gianluca de Ficchy said in a statement. The car giant announced in 2016 that it planned to build the model at its plant in Sunderland, but will now assemble it instead at Nissan's global production hub in Kyushu, Japan. "Other future models planned for Nissan Sunderland Plant -- the next-generation Juke and Qashqai -- are unaffected," added the statement. "A model like X-Trail is manufactured in multiple locations globally, and can, therefore, be re-evaluated based on changes to the business environment," said Hideyuki Sakamoto, Nissan's executive vice president for manufacturing and supply chain management.

Nissan cancels investment plan for UK plant

It would be irresponsible for the European Union to refuse to reopen negotiations over <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/queen-elizabeth-to-be-evacuated-in-case-of-brexit-unrest-report-194679">Britain's exit deal</a>, British trade minister Liam Fox said in an interview aired on Sunday.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/british-pm-theresa-may-says-she-will-seek-pragmatic-brexit-solution-in-brussels-194688">British Prime Minister Theresa May</a> has said she is seeking changes to the Withdrawal Agreement she agreed with Brussels last year in order to win the support of parliament. The EU has said the deal cannot be renegotiated.

"Are they really saying that they would rather not negotiate and end up in a 'no-deal' position?" Fox told Sky News in a pre-recorded interview. "It is in all our interests to get to that agreement and for the EU to say we are not going to even discuss it seems to me to be quite irresponsible."

With less than two months until Britain is due to leave the European Union on March 29, the opposition Labour Party has said it is now inevitable that the government will have to request an extension to the Article 50 exit negotiation period.

Fox, who has previously spoken out strongly against delaying the exit date, said extending the negotiations without a deal in place would not solve anything, but it was "a very different argument" if Britain just needed more time to get the necessary legislation in place for a smooth exit.

He is the second senior minister to suggest such a delay may be needed, after Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Thursday Britain may need time to get legislation through.

"There is a big difference between if we had an agreement and we need some time to get the legalities done, that is one thing," Fox said. "I think to extend simply because we hadn’t reached an agreement would not provide any impetus for that agreement to be reached."

Fox said Britain would "be able to deal" with leaving the bloc without an agreement but it would not be in the country's interests.

It would be irresponsible for the European Union to refuse to reopen negotiations over Britain's exit deal, British trade minister Liam Fox said in an interview aired on Sunday.

It would be irresponsible for the European Union to refuse to reopen negotiations over Britain's exit deal, British trade minister Liam Fox said in an interview aired on Sunday. British Prime Minister Theresa May has said she is seeking changes to the Withdrawal Agreement she agreed with Brussels last year in order to win the support of parliament. The EU has said the deal cannot be renegotiated. "Are they really saying that they would rather not negotiate and end up in a 'no-deal' position?" Fox told Sky News in a pre-recorded interview. "It is in all our interests to get to that agreement and for the EU to say we are not going to even discuss it seems to me to be quite irresponsible." With less than two months until Britain is due to leave the European Union on March 29, the opposition Labour Party has said it is now inevitable that the government will have to request an extension to the Article 50 exit negotiation period. Fox, who has previously spoken out strongly against delaying the exit date, said extending the negotiations without a deal in place would not solve anything, but it was "a very different argument" if Britain just needed more time to get the necessary legislation in place for a smooth exit. He is the second senior minister to suggest such a delay may be needed, after Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Thursday Britain may need time to get legislation through. "There is a big difference between if we had an agreement and we need some time to get the legalities done, that is one thing," Fox said. "I think to extend simply because we hadn’t reached an agreement would not provide any impetus for that agreement to be reached." Fox said Britain would "be able to deal" with leaving the bloc without an agreement but it would not be in the country's interests.

UK trade minister says EU 'irresponsible' to refuse to reopen Brexit deal

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-finally-wins-majority-support-in-parliament-193817">British Prime Minister Theresa May</a> said on Sunday she would be "armed with a fresh mandate and new ideas" when she meets European Union negotiators over her <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/britains-may-faces-defeat-in-parliament-over-brexit-plan-190530">Brexit deal.</a>

EU officials have insisted that the deal is not open for renegotiation.

But May wrote in the Sunday Telegraph that she would be "battling for Britain and Northern Ireland" in her efforts to get rid of the agreement's unpopular backstop provision.

"If we stand together and speak with one voice, I believe we can find the right way forward," she said.

The backstop is intended to ensure there is no return to a hard border with Ireland, but Brexit supporters fear it will keep Britain tied to the EU's customs rules.

MPs voted last week to send May back to Brussels to renegotiate the clause, suggesting her deal would then be able to pass after it was roundly rejected in parliament last month.

"I am now confident there is a route that can secure a majority in the House of Commons for leaving the EU with a deal," she wrote.

"When I return to Brussels I will be battling for Britain and Northern Ireland, I will be armed with a fresh mandate, new ideas and a renewed determination to agree on a pragmatic solution".

The EU insists that the deal "remains the best and only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal," but with the clock running down until the March 29 exit date the risks of a no-deal Brexit for both Britain and the bloc are coming into sharp focus.

May said opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn "also believes the potential indefinite nature of the backstop is an issue", and that the EU has "already accepted the principle of 'alternative arrangements' superseding the backstop should it ever be required."

The backstop would kick in if Britain and the EU have not agreed to a trade deal on their future relationship after a time-limited transition period of up to two years.

The prime minister rejected accusations that plans to reopen the backstop talks risked upsetting the Irish peace process.

"Nor do I have time for those who believe the verdict passed by the British people in 2016 should be overturned before it is even implemented," she added, referring to the rump of MPs calling for a second referendum.

"I'm determined to deliver Brexit, and determined to deliver on time — on March 29, 2019," she wrote.

May has promised MPs that she will bring any revised deal back to be voted on by MPs on February 13.

British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Sunday she would be "armed with a fresh mandate and new ideas" when she meets European Union negotiators over her Brexit deal.

British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Sunday she would be "armed with a fresh mandate and new ideas" when she meets European Union negotiators over her Brexit deal. EU officials have insisted that the deal is not open for renegotiation. But May wrote in the Sunday Telegraph that she would be "battling for Britain and Northern Ireland" in her efforts to get rid of the agreement's unpopular backstop provision. "If we stand together and speak with one voice, I believe we can find the right way forward," she said. The backstop is intended to ensure there is no return to a hard border with Ireland, but Brexit supporters fear it will keep Britain tied to the EU's customs rules. MPs voted last week to send May back to Brussels to renegotiate the clause, suggesting her deal would then be able to pass after it was roundly rejected in parliament last month. "I am now confident there is a route that can secure a majority in the House of Commons for leaving the EU with a deal," she wrote. "When I return to Brussels I will be battling for Britain and Northern Ireland, I will be armed with a fresh mandate, new ideas and a renewed determination to agree on a pragmatic solution". The EU insists that the deal "remains the best and only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal," but with the clock running down until the March 29 exit date the risks of a no-deal Brexit for both Britain and the bloc are coming into sharp focus. May said opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn "also believes the potential indefinite nature of the backstop is an issue", and that the EU has "already accepted the principle of 'alternative arrangements' superseding the backstop should it ever be required." The backstop would kick in if Britain and the EU have not agreed to a trade deal on their future relationship after a time-limited transition period of up to two years. The prime minister rejected accusations that plans to reopen the backstop talks risked upsetting the Irish peace process. "Nor do I have time for those who believe the verdict passed by the British people in 2016 should be overturned before it is even implemented," she added, referring to the rump of MPs calling for a second referendum. "I'm determined to deliver Brexit, and determined to deliver on time — on March 29, 2019," she wrote. May has promised MPs that she will bring any revised deal back to be voted on by MPs on February 13.

UK's May says she is 'armed with fresh' Brexit mandate

<h1></h1>

*By-&nbsp;Tom Harper

Nearly 30 years ago, Donald Trump complained on a US chat show about the trade practices of Japan. This was during Japan’s boom of the 1980s, which propelled it to become the world’s second-largest economy. Now, China has taken that spot – and Trump is using the same rhetoric to attack it.&nbsp;

China is the bugbear of Trumpian foreign policy. According to one Wall Street Journal commentator, the US president is seeking to unify the world against China just as Reagan sought to isolate the Soviet Union.

Today’s China, as America’s primary economic challenger, can be seen as the latest incarnation of the East Asian model of authoritarian state capitalism. This was pioneered by Japan with its industrialisation and development during the 19th century.

China’s current communist rulers see industrialisation as the “magic key” to Great Power status – made clear from the message behind the Made in China 2025 scheme which asserts:

Since the beginning of industrial civilisation in the middle of the 18th century, it has been proven repeatedly by the rise and fall of world powers that without strong manufacturing, there is no national prosperity. Building internationally competitive manufacturing is the only way China can enhance its strength, protect state security and become a world power.

Ironically, a variant of this approach has been praised by some British MPs, in their suggestion of the Singaporean model as an example for post-Brexit Britain to follow. But they overlook how such a model is one of state capitalism, rather than the free-market nirvana they perceive it to be.

For it is state capitalism which enabled Japan and China to become manufacturing powerhouses. They both started with cheap, poor quality goods, and then created more sophisticated innovations – see, for example, the recent moon landing of a Chinese probe, the Chang’e 4.&nbsp;

The particular nature of China’s challenge is that its authoritarian system&nbsp;undermines the assumption that capitalism and democracy go hand in hand. A capitalist China is not necessarily a democratic China.&nbsp;

The war that never came&nbsp;

The most notable parallel between the rise of Japan in the 1980s, and China today, is the rhetoric used to describe them. While this includes references to seemingly unfair practices alluded to by Trump, it is more drastically articulated in predictions that conflict lies ahead.

This was expressed by Trump’s economic advisor, Peter Navarro, in The Coming China Wars, and followed George Friedman’s 1989 bestseller The Coming War with Japan, which predicted a shooting war between the US and Japan by the turn of the century.

In addition, both today’s China – and Japan three decades ago – have been held up as a cause of economic malaise in the Western world, with politicians promising to “get tough” with these nations. Yet this repeated rhetoric also demonstrates the perils of following such a simplistic vision.

For a start, the predicted Japanese-American conflict was based on the assumption that the end of the Cold War would see a divergence between Japanese and American interests and a dissolution of their alliance. However, rather than falling as the former Soviet communist states did, China went from strength to strength. This served to reaffirm the necessity of America’s alliance with Japan as a counter-balance in Asia.

It was the alliance that granted the US a degree of leverage over Japan, as illustrated by the 1985 Plaza Accord, which, in strengthening the yen, has often been held up as one of the causes of Japan’s subsequent economic slump. Repeating this with China is a far more challenging proposition for Washington.

The similarities in the rhetoric between these periods also illustrate the flaws in placing the blame of current Western economic malaise solely on Japan or China. The former’s economic rise of the 1980s came in the period of deindustrialisation throughout much of the Western world, bringing social dislocation which has not been fully resolved.

Problems and populism&nbsp;

The West’s failure to resolve the transition from manufacturing was amplified by poor global infrastructure and the failure to resolve the causes of the 2008 crisis, which played a significant role in the rise of populism. The impact was palpable in the “Rust Belt” states of the US, and the old factory towns of northern England, focal points for Trump and Brexit respectively.&nbsp;

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These had also been among the perceived losers from the rise of Japan and China, with the belief that success in those countries came at the expense of the old industrial heartlands of the West. This is a sentiment which populist movements have been keen to exploit. Yet while the ascendant economic powers may change, the problems remain unsolved.

So while the rhetoric of the Japanese-American economic rivalry has compelling parallels with the current Sino-US trade conflict, it would be a mistake to follow these too closely. The underlying domestic structural factors behind current problems should not be overlooked in favour of externalising the causes.

Even if Trump achieves a perceived “win” over China, as his predecessors did with Japan, it does little to remedy these problems. Instead, it merely furthers temptation to blame an external “other” when the next wave of problems emerges.&nbsp;

*(Tom Harper joined the University of Surrey as a doctoral researcher after completing a masters in international relations at the University of Sussex. He is currently researching the role imperialism plays in Chinese foreign policy.)

(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-trade-war-with-china-is-a-blame-game-that-has-been-played-before-against-japan-109923">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

*By- Tom Harper Nearly 30 years ago, Donald Trump complained on a US chat show about the trade practices of Japan. This was during Japan’s boom of the 1980s, which propelled it to become the world’s second-largest economy.

*By- Tom Harper Nearly 30 years ago, Donald Trump complained on a US chat show about the trade practices of Japan. This was during Japan’s boom of the 1980s, which propelled it to become the world’s second-largest economy. Now, China has taken that spot – and Trump is using the same rhetoric to attack it. China is the bugbear of Trumpian foreign policy. According to one Wall Street Journal commentator, the US president is seeking to unify the world against China just as Reagan sought to isolate the Soviet Union. Today’s China, as America’s primary economic challenger, can be seen as the latest incarnation of the East Asian model of authoritarian state capitalism. This was pioneered by Japan with its industrialisation and development during the 19th century. China’s current communist rulers see industrialisation as the “magic key” to Great Power status – made clear from the message behind the Made in China 2025 scheme which asserts: Since the beginning of industrial civilisation in the middle of the 18th century, it has been proven repeatedly by the rise and fall of world powers that without strong manufacturing, there is no national prosperity. Building internationally competitive manufacturing is the only way China can enhance its strength, protect state security and become a world power. Ironically, a variant of this approach has been praised by some British MPs, in their suggestion of the Singaporean model as an example for post-Brexit Britain to follow. But they overlook how such a model is one of state capitalism, rather than the free-market nirvana they perceive it to be. For it is state capitalism which enabled Japan and China to become manufacturing powerhouses. They both started with cheap, poor quality goods, and then created more sophisticated innovations – see, for example, the recent moon landing of a Chinese probe, the Chang’e 4. The particular nature of China’s challenge is that its authoritarian system undermines the assumption that capitalism and democracy go hand in hand. A capitalist China is not necessarily a democratic China. The war that never came The most notable parallel between the rise of Japan in the 1980s, and China today, is the rhetoric used to describe them. While this includes references to seemingly unfair practices alluded to by Trump, it is more drastically articulated in predictions that conflict lies ahead. This was expressed by Trump’s economic advisor, Peter Navarro, in The Coming China Wars, and followed George Friedman’s 1989 bestseller The Coming War with Japan, which predicted a shooting war between the US and Japan by the turn of the century. In addition, both today’s China – and Japan three decades ago – have been held up as a cause of economic malaise in the Western world, with politicians promising to “get tough” with these nations. Yet this repeated rhetoric also demonstrates the perils of following such a simplistic vision. For a start, the predicted Japanese-American conflict was based on the assumption that the end of the Cold War would see a divergence between Japanese and American interests and a dissolution of their alliance. However, rather than falling as the former Soviet communist states did, China went from strength to strength. This served to reaffirm the necessity of America’s alliance with Japan as a counter-balance in Asia. It was the alliance that granted the US a degree of leverage over Japan, as illustrated by the 1985 Plaza Accord, which, in strengthening the yen, has often been held up as one of the causes of Japan’s subsequent economic slump. Repeating this with China is a far more challenging proposition for Washington. The similarities in the rhetoric between these periods also illustrate the flaws in placing the blame of current Western economic malaise solely on Japan or China. The former’s economic rise of the 1980s came in the period of deindustrialisation throughout much of the Western world, bringing social dislocation which has not been fully resolved. Problems and populism The West’s failure to resolve the transition from manufacturing was amplified by poor global infrastructure and the failure to resolve the causes of the 2008 crisis, which played a significant role in the rise of populism. The impact was palpable in the “Rust Belt” states of the US, and the old factory towns of northern England, focal points for Trump and Brexit respectively. × These had also been among the perceived losers from the rise of Japan and China, with the belief that success in those countries came at the expense of the old industrial heartlands of the West. This is a sentiment which populist movements have been keen to exploit. Yet while the ascendant economic powers may change, the problems remain unsolved. So while the rhetoric of the Japanese-American economic rivalry has compelling parallels with the current Sino-US trade conflict, it would be a mistake to follow these too closely. The underlying domestic structural factors behind current problems should not be overlooked in favour of externalising the causes. Even if Trump achieves a perceived “win” over China, as his predecessors did with Japan, it does little to remedy these problems. Instead, it merely furthers temptation to blame an external “other” when the next wave of problems emerges. *(Tom Harper joined the University of Surrey as a doctoral researcher after completing a masters in international relations at the University of Sussex. He is currently researching the role imperialism plays in Chinese foreign policy.) (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Trump's trade war with China is a blame game that has been played before – against Japan

Britain would <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/scotch-whisky-makers-tell-uk-politicians-avoid-no-deal-brexit-185336">permanently regret</a> leaving the European Union without a deal, and parliament needs to reach a decision to stop this in the next two weeks, Business Minister Greg Clark said in a newspaper interview on Saturday.

Clark's comments in The Times come as the paper reported government documents warning Britain's transport system could get overwhelmed after a no-deal Brexit, while The Guardian said officials feared mountains of rotting waste and animal slurry.

Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29, but lawmakers last month comprehensively rejected the exit deal Prime Minister Theresa May reached with Brussels, and Brussels this week turned down May's request for renegotiation.

Without a deal Britain risked major disruption to trade with the EU, cutting British business out of pan-European supply chains, Clark warned.

"If we make what I think would be a mistake that we would regret for ever, it would be in the history books just like the achievements of the first industrial revolution," Clark said.

Parliament needed to approve a deal by the middle of this month, he added, citing businesses that said they would be reluctant to ship goods to Japan or South Korea if it was unclear whether they would face tariffs when they arrived.

"People say 'Things are always decided at the 59th minute of the 11th hour'. But it's important to understand where 'the wire' is. The wire is not the 29th of March," Clark said.

May has promised another Brexit vote by Feb. 14.

Britain's transport ministry is preparing for the knock-on impact of a no-deal Brexit overwhelming the transport system, according to a leaked document in The Times.

There have been widespread predictions of traffic gridlock on key roads in southeast England due to customs checks on trucks trying to cross the English Channel at Dover, Europe's busiest ferry port.

The impacts "could fall across every transport mode ... and could grow exponentially as ... the capabilities of responders at all levels decrease or become overwhelmed," the document offering guidance to officials working in a planned emergency response centre said.

The Department for Transport did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Separately, the Guardian said environment officials were worried that Britain would struggle to export waste as well as livestock, leading to growing mounds of rubbish and slurry.

"Odours will obviously be an issue as the stockpiled waste putrefies," an internal email cited by the Guardian said.

Farmers unable to export sheep and cattle "may have problems with slurry storage capacity and insufficient land spreading capability", the email also warned.

An Environment Agency spokesman said a process was in place to ensure waste could still be exported after a no-deal Brexit.

Britain would permanently regret leaving the European Union without a deal, and parliament needs to reach a decision to stop this in the next two weeks, Business Minister Greg Clark said in a newspaper interview on Saturday.

Britain would permanently regret leaving the European Union without a deal, and parliament needs to reach a decision to stop this in the next two weeks, Business Minister Greg Clark said in a newspaper interview on Saturday. Clark's comments in The Times come as the paper reported government documents warning Britain's transport system could get overwhelmed after a no-deal Brexit, while The Guardian said officials feared mountains of rotting waste and animal slurry. Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29, but lawmakers last month comprehensively rejected the exit deal Prime Minister Theresa May reached with Brussels, and Brussels this week turned down May's request for renegotiation. Without a deal Britain risked major disruption to trade with the EU, cutting British business out of pan-European supply chains, Clark warned. "If we make what I think would be a mistake that we would regret for ever, it would be in the history books just like the achievements of the first industrial revolution," Clark said. Parliament needed to approve a deal by the middle of this month, he added, citing businesses that said they would be reluctant to ship goods to Japan or South Korea if it was unclear whether they would face tariffs when they arrived. "People say 'Things are always decided at the 59th minute of the 11th hour'. But it's important to understand where 'the wire' is. The wire is not the 29th of March," Clark said. May has promised another Brexit vote by Feb. 14. Britain's transport ministry is preparing for the knock-on impact of a no-deal Brexit overwhelming the transport system, according to a leaked document in The Times. There have been widespread predictions of traffic gridlock on key roads in southeast England due to customs checks on trucks trying to cross the English Channel at Dover, Europe's busiest ferry port. The impacts "could fall across every transport mode ... and could grow exponentially as ... the capabilities of responders at all levels decrease or become overwhelmed," the document offering guidance to officials working in a planned emergency response centre said. The Department for Transport did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Separately, the Guardian said environment officials were worried that Britain would struggle to export waste as well as livestock, leading to growing mounds of rubbish and slurry. "Odours will obviously be an issue as the stockpiled waste putrefies," an internal email cited by the Guardian said. Farmers unable to export sheep and cattle "may have problems with slurry storage capacity and insufficient land spreading capability", the email also warned. An Environment Agency spokesman said a process was in place to ensure waste could still be exported after a no-deal Brexit.

UK will regret no-deal Brexit 'for ever': Business minister

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/putin-says-russia-suspending-missile-treaty-after-us-move-agencies-194569">Following US move, Putin says Russia is pulling out of nuclear missile treaty</a>

President Vladimir Putin on Saturday said Russia was suspending its participation in a key Cold War-era missile treaty in a mirror response to a US move the day before.&nbsp;

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/rishi-kumar-shukla-appointed-new-cbi-chief-officials-194608">Rishi Kumar Shukla appointed new CBI chief</a>

Rishi Kumar Shukla has been appointed the new director of the Central Bureau of Investigation, PTI quoted officials as saying Saturday.&nbsp;

Shukla is a 1983-batch Indian Police Service officer from the Madhya Pradesh cadre.&nbsp;

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/modi-to-mamata-in-bengal-there-is-a-trinamool-tolabaji-hafta-tax-all-over-the-state-194622">Modi to Mamata in Bengal: Trinamool Tolabaji (</a><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/modi-to-mamata-in-bengal-there-is-a-trinamool-tolabaji-hafta-tax-all-over-the-state-194622">hafta</a><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/modi-to-mamata-in-bengal-there-is-a-trinamool-tolabaji-hafta-tax-all-over-the-state-194622">) Tax all over the state</a>

Prime Minister Narendra Modi accused the Mamata Banerjee-led West Bengal government of foisting a tolabaji (hafta) culture all over the state.&nbsp;

“Trinamool Tolabaji Tax is prevalent in the state. Every child in West Bengal is aware of this TTT. West Bengal is the only state where you have to pay tax for education. No one opposed this culture of syndicate and TTT, which is why the Trinamool Congress got a free run," Modi said. &nbsp;

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/uk-government-begins-serious-work-on-uk-staying-in-eu-customs-union-the-independent-194575">British government begins 'serious work' on UK staying in EU customs union: Report</a>

British officials have begun "serious work" on the UK staying in a permanent EU customs union as a way to rescue the Brexit deal, the Independent newspaper reported on Friday.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/sports/indias-smriti-mandhana-becomes-no1-odi-batswoman-194600">India's Smriti Mandhana becomes No. 1 ODI batswoman</a>

Smriti Mandhana has moved up three spots to attain the number one rank in the updated ICC ODI batting rankings, released on Saturday.

After scoring her fourth ODI century and an unbeaten 90 in the three-match series against New Zealand, Mandhana now sits above the Australians Ellyse Perry and Meg Lanning.&nbsp;

Following US move, Putin says Russia is pulling out of nuclear missile treaty President Vladimir Putin on Saturday said Russia was suspending its participation in a key Cold War-era missile treaty in a mirror response to a US move the day before.

Following US move, Putin says Russia is pulling out of nuclear missile treaty President Vladimir Putin on Saturday said Russia was suspending its participation in a key Cold War-era missile treaty in a mirror response to a US move the day before. Rishi Kumar Shukla appointed new CBI chief Rishi Kumar Shukla has been appointed the new director of the Central Bureau of Investigation, PTI quoted officials as saying Saturday. Shukla is a 1983-batch Indian Police Service officer from the Madhya Pradesh cadre. Modi to Mamata in Bengal: Trinamool Tolabaji (hafta) Tax all over the state Prime Minister Narendra Modi accused the Mamata Banerjee-led West Bengal government of foisting a tolabaji (hafta) culture all over the state. “Trinamool Tolabaji Tax is prevalent in the state. Every child in West Bengal is aware of this TTT. West Bengal is the only state where you have to pay tax for education. No one opposed this culture of syndicate and TTT, which is why the Trinamool Congress got a free run," Modi said. British government begins 'serious work' on UK staying in EU customs union: Report British officials have begun "serious work" on the UK staying in a permanent EU customs union as a way to rescue the Brexit deal, the Independent newspaper reported on Friday. India's Smriti Mandhana becomes No. 1 ODI batswoman Smriti Mandhana has moved up three spots to attain the number one rank in the updated ICC ODI batting rankings, released on Saturday. After scoring her fourth ODI century and an unbeaten 90 in the three-match series against New Zealand, Mandhana now sits above the Australians Ellyse Perry and Meg Lanning.

Britain may need<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/brexit-represents-only-way-to-ensure-orderly-uk-withdrawal-ireland-foreign-minister-coveney-193943"> to delay Brexit </a>to pass legislation to implement the split with the European Union, foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Thursday.

As the March 29 withdrawal date looms, the government is still trying to convince MPs to support a version of the divorce deal it has agreed with the bloc.

Even if it is passed, legislation putting the treaty into effect would then have to go through both the House of Commons and the House of Lords.

"If we ended up approving a deal in the days before March 29, then we might need some extra time to pass critical legislation," Hunt told BBC radio.

"But if we are able to make progress sooner then that might not be necessary. We can't know at this stage exactly which of those scenarios would happen."

The government is considering extending parliamentary hours and cancelling the February holiday of MPs to allow more time to debate Brexit legislation.

But there are still eight laws needed to prepare for Brexit, not just on the deal but also covering issues such as trade, agriculture and immigration.

Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the House of Commons, had previously suggested Britain could probably secure "a couple of extra weeks" if needed.

Any delay must be agreed by the other 27 EU countries.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-finally-wins-majority-support-in-parliament-193817">Prime Minister Theresa May</a> has promised to return to Brussels to try to secure changes to the deal that would enable MPs to support it, but the EU has warned it does not want to reopen the agreement.

Without the deal, Britain runs the risk of severing ties with its closest trading partner on March 29 with no new arrangements in place.

Britain may need to delay Brexit to pass legislation to implement the split with the European Union, foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Thursday. As the March 29 withdrawal date looms, the government is still trying to convince MPs to support a version of the divorce deal it has agreed with the bloc.

Britain may need to delay Brexit to pass legislation to implement the split with the European Union, foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Thursday. As the March 29 withdrawal date looms, the government is still trying to convince MPs to support a version of the divorce deal it has agreed with the bloc. Even if it is passed, legislation putting the treaty into effect would then have to go through both the House of Commons and the House of Lords. "If we ended up approving a deal in the days before March 29, then we might need some extra time to pass critical legislation," Hunt told BBC radio. "But if we are able to make progress sooner then that might not be necessary. We can't know at this stage exactly which of those scenarios would happen." The government is considering extending parliamentary hours and cancelling the February holiday of MPs to allow more time to debate Brexit legislation. But there are still eight laws needed to prepare for Brexit, not just on the deal but also covering issues such as trade, agriculture and immigration. Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the House of Commons, had previously suggested Britain could probably secure "a couple of extra weeks" if needed. Any delay must be agreed by the other 27 EU countries. Prime Minister Theresa May has promised to return to Brussels to try to secure changes to the deal that would enable MPs to support it, but the EU has warned it does not want to reopen the agreement. Without the deal, Britain runs the risk of severing ties with its closest trading partner on March 29 with no new arrangements in place.

May need to delay Brexit to pass legislation to implement split with EU: Britain

EU rules out Brexit Renegotiation

British-Australian actress Miriam Margolyes who is most famous for her role in hit film series ‘Harry Potter’ as Professor Sprout now takes on former British PM David Cameron in a conversation centred on Brexit.&nbsp;

Speaking at Australia's News Breakfast morning show, she said that Cameron "should be boiled in oil" for his role in bringing it about.

She added that Brexit was a "disaster for England" and that it would "go on for years".

For the uninitiated, Cameron first pledged a referendum in 2013 in a bid to placate his party's eurosceptic wing. After unexpectedly winning a majority in the 2015 national election, Britain voted to leave in a referendum a year later and Cameron quit. Since then the Brexit issue has just been on the top cards for everyone in Britain.&nbsp;

British lawmakers on January 29 instructed current PM Theresa May to reopen a Brexit treaty with the European Union to replace a controversial Irish border arrangement - and promptly received a flat rejection from Brussels.

With two months left until Britain is due by law to leave the EU, the entire clout of investors and allies are urging the ruling government to clinch a deal to allow an orderly exit. Britain has been a part of the EU since the year 1973.

British-Australian actress Miriam Margolyes who is most famous for her role in hit film series ‘Harry Potter’ as Professor Sprout now takes on former British PM David Cameron in a conversation centred on Brexit.

British-Australian actress Miriam Margolyes who is most famous for her role in hit film series ‘Harry Potter’ as Professor Sprout now takes on former British PM David Cameron in a conversation centred on Brexit. Speaking at Australia's News Breakfast morning show, she said that Cameron "should be boiled in oil" for his role in bringing it about. She added that Brexit was a "disaster for England" and that it would "go on for years". For the uninitiated, Cameron first pledged a referendum in 2013 in a bid to placate his party's eurosceptic wing. After unexpectedly winning a majority in the 2015 national election, Britain voted to leave in a referendum a year later and Cameron quit. Since then the Brexit issue has just been on the top cards for everyone in Britain. British lawmakers on January 29 instructed current PM Theresa May to reopen a Brexit treaty with the European Union to replace a controversial Irish border arrangement - and promptly received a flat rejection from Brussels. With two months left until Britain is due by law to leave the EU, the entire clout of investors and allies are urging the ruling government to clinch a deal to allow an orderly exit. Britain has been a part of the EU since the year 1973.

Brexit: ‘Harry Potter’ actress Margolyes says David Cameron ‘should be boiled in oil’

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar on Wednesday rejected <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/uk-mps-vote-to-renegotiate-brexit-eu-says-its-not-happening-193777">Britain's bid to reopen negotiations </a>less than two months before it is due to leave the European Union, echoing similar comments from EU leaders.

"As (EU Council) president (Donald) Tusk said yesterday, we are not offering a renegotiation and renegotiation is not on the table. There is no grounds to organise an emergency summit," Varadkar said in the Irish parliament.

British MPs have<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-finally-wins-majority-support-in-parliament-193817"> comprehensively rejected the Brexit deal </a>as it stands, but on Tuesday said they could back it with an alternative to its controversial backstop clause.

The backstop would keep the Irish border free-flowing but could lock Britain indefinitely into EU trade arrangements.

A majority of British MPs want it replaced with "alternative arrangements" in order to back a deal and stop the UK crashing out of the EU on March 29 with no deal.

"I do not know what those alternative arrangements are," said Varadkar, who was due to have telephone talks with his British counterpart Theresa May later Tuesday.

"We've been down that track before and I don't believe that such alternative arrangements exist. And that is why we have the agreement that we have now.

"The only way I believe we can avoid a border, physical infrastructure... is through full regulatory alignment," he said.

Meanwhile, Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney said the Brexit deal "represents the best way, the only way, to ensure an orderly UK withdrawal".

He said the EU was committed to exploring and trying to find alternative border arrangements with the UK to replace the backstop in the future.

The insurance policy would kick in if nothing better emerges by the end of the proposed Brexit transition period, which concludes at the end of 2020, to avoid a hard border and physical checks and controls.

"This has been explored endlessly in the negotiations over the last two years. We have seen no alternative arrangements that meet this essential threshold," said Coveney.

"And we need a backstop or insurance mechanism based on legal certainty, and not just wishful thinking.

"We have less than two months to go now until Brexit happens on March 29. We are, quite simply, running out of road."

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar on Wednesday rejected Britain's bid to reopen negotiations less than two months before it is due to leave the European Union, echoing similar comments from EU leaders.

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar on Wednesday rejected Britain's bid to reopen negotiations less than two months before it is due to leave the European Union, echoing similar comments from EU leaders. "As (EU Council) president (Donald) Tusk said yesterday, we are not offering a renegotiation and renegotiation is not on the table. There is no grounds to organise an emergency summit," Varadkar said in the Irish parliament. British MPs have comprehensively rejected the Brexit deal as it stands, but on Tuesday said they could back it with an alternative to its controversial backstop clause. The backstop would keep the Irish border free-flowing but could lock Britain indefinitely into EU trade arrangements. A majority of British MPs want it replaced with "alternative arrangements" in order to back a deal and stop the UK crashing out of the EU on March 29 with no deal. "I do not know what those alternative arrangements are," said Varadkar, who was due to have telephone talks with his British counterpart Theresa May later Tuesday. "We've been down that track before and I don't believe that such alternative arrangements exist. And that is why we have the agreement that we have now. "The only way I believe we can avoid a border, physical infrastructure... is through full regulatory alignment," he said. Meanwhile, Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney said the Brexit deal "represents the best way, the only way, to ensure an orderly UK withdrawal". He said the EU was committed to exploring and trying to find alternative border arrangements with the UK to replace the backstop in the future. The insurance policy would kick in if nothing better emerges by the end of the proposed Brexit transition period, which concludes at the end of 2020, to avoid a hard border and physical checks and controls. "This has been explored endlessly in the negotiations over the last two years. We have seen no alternative arrangements that meet this essential threshold," said Coveney. "And we need a backstop or insurance mechanism based on legal certainty, and not just wishful thinking. "We have less than two months to go now until Brexit happens on March 29. We are, quite simply, running out of road."

Brexit represents only way to ensure orderly UK withdrawal: Ireland foreign minister Coveney

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/brexit-i-dont-want-to-leave-eu-without-a-deal-pm-theresa-may-to-lawmakers-193765">British Prime Minister Theresa May</a> won parliament's backing on Tuesday to renegotiate her Brexit deal — a major policy reversal that sets up a new standoff with the EU after it ruled out any change.

May's dramatic decision to abandon a pact she herself sealed with the 27 EU leaders at a summit last month came with Britain on course to crash out of the bloc after 46 years in a blaze of political and economic chaos on March 29.

The pound quickly fell on fears of a no-deal scenario as MPs voted through an amendment saying they would only support a divorce deal if its controversial "backstop" clause to keep the Irish border open was removed.

A spokesman for EU leader Donald Tusk said the deal was "not open for renegotiation" while French President Emmanuel Macron said it was the "best agreement possible".

MPs also voted in favour of a non-binding measure that "rejects the United Kingdom leaving the European Union without a Withdrawal Agreement".

But they failed to vote through a more important plan — backed by European supporters — that would have tried to force through a Brexit delay if no new deal with the EU emerged by February 26.

May now faces a formidable challenge convincing Brussels to re-open talks that took 18 excruciating months to conclude.

She said parliament's approval of the backstop amendment gave her the "mandate" to "seek to obtain legally binding changes to the withdrawal agreement".

But she conceded that there was "limited appetite" in the EU for renegotiation.

"It won't be easy," said May. "But in contrast to a fortnight ago, this house has made it clear what it needs to approve the withdrawal agreement."

'Alternative arrangement' 
Parliament on January 15 voted against the draft deal by a crushing margin.

That significantly raised the risk that Britain's departure without a plan on March 29 will create trade and economic disruptions on both sides of the Channel.

Brexit hardliners from May's Conservative party think the backstop -- created to keep the border open with Ireland -- could see Britain indefinitely tied to EU trade rules.

The winning amendment calls for the backstop to be replaced with "alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border" -- vague wording that did not pin May to any specific approach.

- Playing for time? - 
Yet analysts struggled to see how May could convince her EU counterparts to agree to any changes.

"The only strategy I can see behind all this is the prime minister uses this to finally prove to all but her most recalcitrant backbenchers that the backstop cannot be renegotiated," King's College London professor Anand Menon said.

"She is going to have to come back definitely and say this deal isn't on offer," Menon said.

University College London professor Morten Ravn agreed that May appeared to be playing for time.

"May won support for an amendment that she probably expects she cannot deliver on in the hope that parliament will support her deal last minute in order to avoid no-deal Brexit," Ravn told AFP.

May promised to give MPs a chance to vote on what happens next on February 14 should she fail to win a new agreement over the course of the next two weeks.

'Nothing changes' 
May already tried and failed to wrest new concessions from Brussels during a difficult summit last month that exposed her weak negotiating position -- and the European Union's resolve.

EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier's deputy Sabine Weyand on Monday remarked that the current political debate in Britain felt "like Groundhog Day".

She said Britain risked crashing out of the EU without a deal "by accident" because London cannot decide what it wants.

Following Tuesday's votes, Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney said the he hoped the backstop would "never be used" or replaced quickly by a new trade agreement.

"But it is necessary and tonight's developments at Westminster do nothing to change this," Coveney tweeted.

British Prime Minister Theresa May won parliament's backing on Tuesday to renegotiate her Brexit deal — a major policy reversal that sets up a new standoff with the EU after it ruled out any change.

British Prime Minister Theresa May won parliament's backing on Tuesday to renegotiate her Brexit deal — a major policy reversal that sets up a new standoff with the EU after it ruled out any change. May's dramatic decision to abandon a pact she herself sealed with the 27 EU leaders at a summit last month came with Britain on course to crash out of the bloc after 46 years in a blaze of political and economic chaos on March 29. The pound quickly fell on fears of a no-deal scenario as MPs voted through an amendment saying they would only support a divorce deal if its controversial "backstop" clause to keep the Irish border open was removed. A spokesman for EU leader Donald Tusk said the deal was "not open for renegotiation" while French President Emmanuel Macron said it was the "best agreement possible". MPs also voted in favour of a non-binding measure that "rejects the United Kingdom leaving the European Union without a Withdrawal Agreement". But they failed to vote through a more important plan — backed by European supporters — that would have tried to force through a Brexit delay if no new deal with the EU emerged by February 26. May now faces a formidable challenge convincing Brussels to re-open talks that took 18 excruciating months to conclude. She said parliament's approval of the backstop amendment gave her the "mandate" to "seek to obtain legally binding changes to the withdrawal agreement". But she conceded that there was "limited appetite" in the EU for renegotiation. "It won't be easy," said May. "But in contrast to a fortnight ago, this house has made it clear what it needs to approve the withdrawal agreement." 'Alternative arrangement' Parliament on January 15 voted against the draft deal by a crushing margin. That significantly raised the risk that Britain's departure without a plan on March 29 will create trade and economic disruptions on both sides of the Channel. Brexit hardliners from May's Conservative party think the backstop -- created to keep the border open with Ireland -- could see Britain indefinitely tied to EU trade rules. The winning amendment calls for the backstop to be replaced with "alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border" -- vague wording that did not pin May to any specific approach. - Playing for time? - Yet analysts struggled to see how May could convince her EU counterparts to agree to any changes. "The only strategy I can see behind all this is the prime minister uses this to finally prove to all but her most recalcitrant backbenchers that the backstop cannot be renegotiated," King's College London professor Anand Menon said. "She is going to have to come back definitely and say this deal isn't on offer," Menon said. University College London professor Morten Ravn agreed that May appeared to be playing for time. "May won support for an amendment that she probably expects she cannot deliver on in the hope that parliament will support her deal last minute in order to avoid no-deal Brexit," Ravn told AFP. May promised to give MPs a chance to vote on what happens next on February 14 should she fail to win a new agreement over the course of the next two weeks. 'Nothing changes' May already tried and failed to wrest new concessions from Brussels during a difficult summit last month that exposed her weak negotiating position -- and the European Union's resolve. EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier's deputy Sabine Weyand on Monday remarked that the current political debate in Britain felt "like Groundhog Day". She said Britain risked crashing out of the EU without a deal "by accident" because London cannot decide what it wants. Following Tuesday's votes, Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney said the he hoped the backstop would "never be used" or replaced quickly by a new trade agreement. "But it is necessary and tonight's developments at Westminster do nothing to change this," Coveney tweeted.

UK MPs vote to renegotiate Brexit, EU says it's not happening

WION Gravitas, 29th January, 2019

PM Theresa May told the British Parliament today that she did <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/eu-has-a-brexit-message-for-pm-may-irish-backstop-is-our-red-line-193501">not want to leave the European Union(EU)</a> without an agreement as it would "disrupt lives and hurt the economy" while asserting that holding a general election would be a "waste of time".

"I accept that this house does not want the deal that I put before it in the form that it currently exist, the vote was decisive and I listened. So the world know what this house does not want. Today we need to send an emphatic message about what we do want," May told parliamentarians during her speech.

Britain is scheduled to leave the European Union on March 29, however, May's plan was rejected by parliamentarians on January 15 leading to a stalemate.

"I do&nbsp;not want to leave the EU without a deal because that would hurt our economy and disrupt people's lives. It does not want to hold a general election because it would waste time, increase division and solve none of the problems we face," she said, adding,"this house renewed its confidence in her Majesty's government a fortnight ago. Neither do I see anything approaching a majority across the house to hold a second referendum."

MPs are set to vote on measures that could include preventing a no-deal Brexit, delaying Brexit, changing the negotiated deal and even seizing control of the entire process. The proposed measure put forward for Tuesday's votes calls for the backstop to be replaced with "alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border" on the island of Ireland.

"I think there is a willingness on the other side in terms of the European Union to agree a deal with the United Kingdom. But what they clearly said when the meaningful vote was lost, they wanted to know what it was the UK wanted to see happening in relation to the deal. That's an opportunity that we have today," May told parliamentarians.

"This amendment will give the mandate I need to negotiate with Brussels an arrangement that commands a majority in this house," May said. "What I'm talking about is not a further exchange of letters, but a significant and legally-binding change to the Withdrawal Agreement."

Before the Parliament opened, British stocks jumped Tuesday and the pound was firmer ahead of the votes.

London's benchmark FTSE 100 index was 1.3 per cent higher in midday deals, while the pound held recently won ground versus the dollar.

"Today we have the chance to show the European Union what it will take to get a deal through this House of Commons. What it will take to move beyond the confusion and division and uncertainty that now hangs over us and onto the bright new close open relationship that we want to build with our European friends in the years ahead," May said.

PM Theresa May told the British Parliament today that she did not want to leave the European Union(EU) without an agreement as it would "disrupt lives and hurt the economy" while asserting that holding a general election would be a "waste of time".

PM Theresa May told the British Parliament today that she did not want to leave the European Union(EU) without an agreement as it would "disrupt lives and hurt the economy" while asserting that holding a general election would be a "waste of time". "I accept that this house does not want the deal that I put before it in the form that it currently exist, the vote was decisive and I listened. So the world know what this house does not want. Today we need to send an emphatic message about what we do want," May told parliamentarians during her speech. Britain is scheduled to leave the European Union on March 29, however, May's plan was rejected by parliamentarians on January 15 leading to a stalemate. "I do not want to leave the EU without a deal because that would hurt our economy and disrupt people's lives. It does not want to hold a general election because it would waste time, increase division and solve none of the problems we face," she said, adding,"this house renewed its confidence in her Majesty's government a fortnight ago. Neither do I see anything approaching a majority across the house to hold a second referendum." MPs are set to vote on measures that could include preventing a no-deal Brexit, delaying Brexit, changing the negotiated deal and even seizing control of the entire process. The proposed measure put forward for Tuesday's votes calls for the backstop to be replaced with "alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border" on the island of Ireland. "I think there is a willingness on the other side in terms of the European Union to agree a deal with the United Kingdom. But what they clearly said when the meaningful vote was lost, they wanted to know what it was the UK wanted to see happening in relation to the deal. That's an opportunity that we have today," May told parliamentarians. "This amendment will give the mandate I need to negotiate with Brussels an arrangement that commands a majority in this house," May said. "What I'm talking about is not a further exchange of letters, but a significant and legally-binding change to the Withdrawal Agreement." Before the Parliament opened, British stocks jumped Tuesday and the pound was firmer ahead of the votes. London's benchmark FTSE 100 index was 1.3 per cent higher in midday deals, while the pound held recently won ground versus the dollar. "Today we have the chance to show the European Union what it will take to get a deal through this House of Commons. What it will take to move beyond the confusion and division and uncertainty that now hangs over us and onto the bright new close open relationship that we want to build with our European friends in the years ahead," May said.

Brexit: I don't want to leave EU without a deal, PM Theresa May to lawmakers

British lawmakers will vote on Tuesday on whether to try to take control of the Brexit process in a series of crunch votes that threaten to pile more pressure on Prime Minister Theresa May.

With the Brexit deadline only 60 days away, MPs will vote on <a href="http://www.wionews.com/opinions/theres-no-brexit-plan-b-this-is-still-plan-may-191929">May's "Plan B"</a>, which she presented to parliament last week after her initial deal was comprehensively rejected on January 15.

They will also vote on amendments that will indicate whether lawmakers have the numbers to instigate a legally-binding parliamentary takeover of the process.

One amendment would open the door for the Remain-dominated House of Commons to bring in legislation preventing Britain leaving the European Union without an official deal on March 29.

It would force May to delay Brexit for nine months if her deal is not approved before February 26, and give lawmakers the ability to indefinitely extend the deadline.

Increasing numbers of government ministers have warned they will not accept the prospect of Britain leaving without a deal, which would immediately sever all ties with its largest trading partner.

Conservative leader May is seeking to salvage her agreement, and hopes to win over MPs in another future ballot, despite losing the last by 230 votes.

The government said that this second "meaningful vote" would also be amendable, possibly convincing some MPs not to take any drastic action on Tuesday, knowing they will have another chance.

Internal divisions 
Parliamentary experts also warned that MPs' efforts may be unconstitutional.

"The Commons... cannot legally compel the government to negotiate an arrangement to which it is opposed," King's College London professor Vernon Bogdanor wrote in The Times, adding their plans would constitutionally require a change in government.

Amid the bitter wrangling Queen Elizabeth II appeared to make a rare foray into politics last week, emphasising in a speech the need for Britons to come together to "seek out the common ground".

May's plan B hinges almost entirely on convincing the EU to reexamine the existing deal's so-called backstop proposal, which could see Britain tied to the bloc's trade rules to keep open the border with Ireland.

An amendment potentially up for a vote on Tuesday would call for her to go back to Brussels and secure changes to the backstop.

May reportedly told Tory MPs at a Monday meeting the government will support the measure and would order them to follow suit.

But an ardently pro-Brexit group of Conservative lawmakers led by backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg said they would not back the move because it does not force the reopening of the withdrawal agreement.

No deal 'by accident' 
If passed, the amendment could put pressure on Brussels to reopen the deal by offering a clear path through the current impasse.

But the EU has consistently said there will be no major changes to the deal and on Monday accused Britain of risking a no-deal Brexit "by accident".

In some of her toughest remarks to date Sabine Weyand, deputy to EU negotiator Michel Barnier, criticised May's handling of divorce talks, arguing she had kept colleagues too in the dark during the 18 months of gruelling negotiations.

Meanwhile MPs in favour of another referendum pulled their amendment after it crucially failed to win the support of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, although the idea will remain on the backburner if Brexit is delayed.&nbsp;

Not all amendments will be put to a vote, with Commons Speaker John Bercow to make the selection on Tuesday morning, with votes cast from 7:00 pm (1900 GMT).

The speaker sparked outrage when he ignored convention and the advice of his clerks to approve the initial move forcing May to reveal her revised plan, which also gave MPs a motion on which to tag their amendments.

Leave supporting MPs have accused the speaker, who publicly declared that he voted for Remain, of using his position, which is traditionally impartial, to try to scupper Brexit, and will be keeping a close eye on his actions on Tuesday.

May's office has said it was considering extending House of Commons hours and cancelling MPs' week-long February holiday to make time to pass all the laws needed to prepare for Brexit.

British lawmakers will vote on Tuesday on whether to try to take control of the Brexit process in a series of crunch votes that threaten to pile more pressure on Prime Minister Theresa May.

British lawmakers will vote on Tuesday on whether to try to take control of the Brexit process in a series of crunch votes that threaten to pile more pressure on Prime Minister Theresa May. With the Brexit deadline only 60 days away, MPs will vote on May's "Plan B", which she presented to parliament last week after her initial deal was comprehensively rejected on January 15. They will also vote on amendments that will indicate whether lawmakers have the numbers to instigate a legally-binding parliamentary takeover of the process. One amendment would open the door for the Remain-dominated House of Commons to bring in legislation preventing Britain leaving the European Union without an official deal on March 29. It would force May to delay Brexit for nine months if her deal is not approved before February 26, and give lawmakers the ability to indefinitely extend the deadline. Increasing numbers of government ministers have warned they will not accept the prospect of Britain leaving without a deal, which would immediately sever all ties with its largest trading partner. Conservative leader May is seeking to salvage her agreement, and hopes to win over MPs in another future ballot, despite losing the last by 230 votes. The government said that this second "meaningful vote" would also be amendable, possibly convincing some MPs not to take any drastic action on Tuesday, knowing they will have another chance. Internal divisions Parliamentary experts also warned that MPs' efforts may be unconstitutional. "The Commons... cannot legally compel the government to negotiate an arrangement to which it is opposed," King's College London professor Vernon Bogdanor wrote in The Times, adding their plans would constitutionally require a change in government. Amid the bitter wrangling Queen Elizabeth II appeared to make a rare foray into politics last week, emphasising in a speech the need for Britons to come together to "seek out the common ground". May's plan B hinges almost entirely on convincing the EU to reexamine the existing deal's so-called backstop proposal, which could see Britain tied to the bloc's trade rules to keep open the border with Ireland. An amendment potentially up for a vote on Tuesday would call for her to go back to Brussels and secure changes to the backstop. May reportedly told Tory MPs at a Monday meeting the government will support the measure and would order them to follow suit. But an ardently pro-Brexit group of Conservative lawmakers led by backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg said they would not back the move because it does not force the reopening of the withdrawal agreement. No deal 'by accident' If passed, the amendment could put pressure on Brussels to reopen the deal by offering a clear path through the current impasse. But the EU has consistently said there will be no major changes to the deal and on Monday accused Britain of risking a no-deal Brexit "by accident". In some of her toughest remarks to date Sabine Weyand, deputy to EU negotiator Michel Barnier, criticised May's handling of divorce talks, arguing she had kept colleagues too in the dark during the 18 months of gruelling negotiations. Meanwhile MPs in favour of another referendum pulled their amendment after it crucially failed to win the support of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, although the idea will remain on the backburner if Brexit is delayed. Not all amendments will be put to a vote, with Commons Speaker John Bercow to make the selection on Tuesday morning, with votes cast from 7:00 pm (1900 GMT). The speaker sparked outrage when he ignored convention and the advice of his clerks to approve the initial move forcing May to reveal her revised plan, which also gave MPs a motion on which to tag their amendments. Leave supporting MPs have accused the speaker, who publicly declared that he voted for Remain, of using his position, which is traditionally impartial, to try to scupper Brexit, and will be keeping a close eye on his actions on Tuesday. May's office has said it was considering extending House of Commons hours and cancelling MPs' week-long February holiday to make time to pass all the laws needed to prepare for Brexit.

British MPs to vote today on taking control of Brexit from government

British Prime Minister Theresa May will seek to renegotiate the <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/eu-has-a-brexit-message-for-pm-may-irish-backstop-is-our-red-line-193501">EU divorce deal</a>, her spokesman said Tuesday, ahead of crunch <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/british-mps-to-vote-today-on-taking-control-of-brexit-from-government-193557">votes in parliament</a> that could reset the course for Brexit.

With exactly two months to go until Britain is scheduled to leave the European Union on March 29, May is going to attempt to change the agreement she herself negotiated -- even though Brussels has insisted it will not re-open it.

"We have to have a deal which can carry the support of parliament and that's going to require some changes to the withdrawal agreement," May's spokesman said, as Downing Street tried to seize the initiative back from MPs.

The draft divorce deal was overwhelmingly rejected by lawmakers on January 15 and deeply divided MPs have been coming up with their own ideas to take a different path.

After May opens a day of debate, MPs are set to vote from 1900 GMT on measures that could include preventing a no-deal Brexit, delaying Brexit, changing the negotiated deal and even seizing control of the entire process.

May's spokesman said she backed a proposed measure that called for the removal of a controversial Irish border "backstop" arrangement written into the divorce deal.

Brexit hardliners from May's Conservative Party are set against the deal due to the backstop, which could see Britain indefinitely tied to EU trade rules in order to keep open the border with the Republic of Ireland.

The proposed measure put forward for Tuesday's votes calls for the backstop to be replaced with "alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border" on the island of Ireland.

The amendment would make clear that the Commons wishes to leave the EU with a deal, confirms the commitment to avoiding border checks and "gives us scope for a new discussion with the EU about how best we achieve that", said May's spokesman.

She told her cabinet that "to win the support of the House of Commons, legal changes to the backstop will be required", he said.

'Groundhog Day'

Confidence in London about being able to change the agreement is met with disbelief in Brussels.

Sabine Weyand, deputy to EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, said: "There's no negotiation between the EU and the UK. That negotiation is finished.

"It does feel like Groundhog Day."

She said Britain risked crashing out of the EU without a deal "by accident" because London cannot decide what it wants.

A source in French President Emmanuel Macron's office said Tuesday: "The withdrawal agreement and the backstop are not renegotiable."

And Ireland's Europe minister Helen McEntee called for "realism" from London as "there can be no change to the backstop".

No-deal risk&nbsp;

Tuesday's votes are the latest twist in the turmoil that the Brexit vote has unleashed in one of the world's top economies.

Increasing numbers of government ministers have warned they will not accept the prospect of Britain leaving without a deal on March 29, immediately severing all ties with its largest trading partner and threatening economic chaos.

British stocks jumped Tuesday and the pound was firmer ahead of the votes.

London's benchmark FTSE 100 index was 1.3 per cent higher in midday deals, while the pound held recently won ground versus the dollar.

One of the amendments which could be voted on Tuesday would open the door for the House of Commons to bring in legislation preventing Britain leaving the EU without a deal by forcing May to delay Brexit for nine months if her deal is not approved before February 26.

It would also give MPs the ability to extend the deadline indefinitely.

The main opposition Labour Party is throwing its weight behind the amendment.

British Prime Minister Theresa May will seek to renegotiate the EU divorce deal, her spokesman said Tuesday, ahead of crunch votes in parliament that could reset the course for Brexit.

British Prime Minister Theresa May will seek to renegotiate the EU divorce deal, her spokesman said Tuesday, ahead of crunch votes in parliament that could reset the course for Brexit. With exactly two months to go until Britain is scheduled to leave the European Union on March 29, May is going to attempt to change the agreement she herself negotiated -- even though Brussels has insisted it will not re-open it. "We have to have a deal which can carry the support of parliament and that's going to require some changes to the withdrawal agreement," May's spokesman said, as Downing Street tried to seize the initiative back from MPs. The draft divorce deal was overwhelmingly rejected by lawmakers on January 15 and deeply divided MPs have been coming up with their own ideas to take a different path. After May opens a day of debate, MPs are set to vote from 1900 GMT on measures that could include preventing a no-deal Brexit, delaying Brexit, changing the negotiated deal and even seizing control of the entire process. May's spokesman said she backed a proposed measure that called for the removal of a controversial Irish border "backstop" arrangement written into the divorce deal. Brexit hardliners from May's Conservative Party are set against the deal due to the backstop, which could see Britain indefinitely tied to EU trade rules in order to keep open the border with the Republic of Ireland. The proposed measure put forward for Tuesday's votes calls for the backstop to be replaced with "alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border" on the island of Ireland. The amendment would make clear that the Commons wishes to leave the EU with a deal, confirms the commitment to avoiding border checks and "gives us scope for a new discussion with the EU about how best we achieve that", said May's spokesman. She told her cabinet that "to win the support of the House of Commons, legal changes to the backstop will be required", he said. 'Groundhog Day' Confidence in London about being able to change the agreement is met with disbelief in Brussels. Sabine Weyand, deputy to EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, said: "There's no negotiation between the EU and the UK. That negotiation is finished. "It does feel like Groundhog Day." She said Britain risked crashing out of the EU without a deal "by accident" because London cannot decide what it wants. A source in French President Emmanuel Macron's office said Tuesday: "The withdrawal agreement and the backstop are not renegotiable." And Ireland's Europe minister Helen McEntee called for "realism" from London as "there can be no change to the backstop". No-deal risk Tuesday's votes are the latest twist in the turmoil that the Brexit vote has unleashed in one of the world's top economies. Increasing numbers of government ministers have warned they will not accept the prospect of Britain leaving without a deal on March 29, immediately severing all ties with its largest trading partner and threatening economic chaos. British stocks jumped Tuesday and the pound was firmer ahead of the votes. London's benchmark FTSE 100 index was 1.3 per cent higher in midday deals, while the pound held recently won ground versus the dollar. One of the amendments which could be voted on Tuesday would open the door for the House of Commons to bring in legislation preventing Britain leaving the EU without a deal by forcing May to delay Brexit for nine months if her deal is not approved before February 26. It would also give MPs the ability to extend the deadline indefinitely. The main opposition Labour Party is throwing its weight behind the amendment.

UK PM May seeks to reopen Brexit deal

The European Union has a message for British <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/uk-govt-may-scrap-mps-holiday-to-pass-brexit-laws-193184">Prime Minister Theresa Ma</a>y&nbsp;as she plots a path out of the <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/with-two-months-to-brexit-cracks-form-on-irish-border-193080">Brexit impasse</a>: a backup plan for the Irish border can be tweaked but will have to be included in any divorce deal.

With less than nine weeks until the United Kingdom is due by law to leave the European Union on March 29, there is no agreement yet in London on how and even whether to leave the world's biggest trading bloc.

Parliament defeated May's deal two weeks ago by a huge margin with many Brexit-supporting rebels in her Conservative Party angry at the Irish backstop, an insurance policy aimed at preventing a hard border in Ireland if no other solutions can be agreed.

Ahead of Tuesday's votes in the British parliament on a way forward, lawmakers in May's party are pushing for her to demand the European Union drop the backstop and replace it with something else.

Ireland said the backstop was staying and the European Commission repeated on Monday that the withdrawal agreement text, and its backstop component, is not open for renegotiation.

"The European Parliament will not ratify a withdrawal agreement that doesn't have a backstop in it, it's as simple as that," Ireland's Deputy Prime Minister Simon Coveney told the BBC.

As the Brexit crisis goes down to the line, however, EU officials indicated there might be wriggle room if May came back with a clear, and viable, request for changes that she - and the EU - believe will secure a final ratification.

The backstop is a type of insurance policy aimed at preventing a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland if no other solutions can be agreed. It is the most contentious part of May's deal.

IRELAND

The question for May is whether the EU can offer enough to get a variant of her defeated deal through the British parliament.

Possible amendments floated by EU officials range from further public assurances that the backstop would probably never be used or only for a brief period to amending the text which accompanies the treaty and which lays out expectations for the trading relationship that will come in after the transition.

The EU has explicitly said if Britain were to stay in a customs union indefinitely, as the opposition Labour Party favours, that could leave the backstop redundant.

One key element is maintaining a united front with the Irish government, which insists it needs the backstop without a time limit to ensure there is no physical frontier, which could become a target of the violence that has been reduced as a result of the two-decade-old Good Friday Agreement peace deal.

EU and Irish leaders insist that Dublin is under no pressure to relent.

However, a looming no-deal Brexit, in which the EU insists Ireland cannot leave an open door to British goods, has highlighted the difficulty Ireland will face if the backstop issue scuppers an agreement.

EU leaders are open to giving May more time beyond March 29 if she can convince them she will use the time to secure the elusive orderly outcome, whether leaving or staying.

"SHOW US YOUR MAJORITY"

Brussels and the national governments are keeping their options open, however, determined not to give in to British demands that they believe would undermine their single market but also anxious to use every possibility to avoid chaos.

But they are reluctant to offer May more concessions that then fail to satisfy British lawmakers.

"Theresa May must show us a majority for something concrete. Come back and be specific about what she needs to get the deal passed," one EU source told Reuters.

"All eyes are on the House of Commons, what amendments pass and what can be built on their basis, maybe around the middle of February," said another.

May is trying to use a series of votes in parliament on Tuesday to find a consensus that lawmakers in her own party could support, just two weeks since her deal suffered the biggest parliamentary defeat in modern British history.

The British parliament on Tuesday will vote on proposals put forward by lawmakers including a delay to Brexit and going back to the EU to demand changes to the Northern Irish backstop.

In essence, May is forcing lawmakers to show their cards on what sort of Brexit, if any, they want. Lawmakers in her own party want her to demand a last-minute change to the deal to remove the backstop.

The European Union has a message for British Prime Minister Theresa May as she plots a path out of the Brexit impasse: a backup plan for the Irish border can be tweaked but will have to be included in any divorce deal.

The European Union has a message for British Prime Minister Theresa May as she plots a path out of the Brexit impasse: a backup plan for the Irish border can be tweaked but will have to be included in any divorce deal. With less than nine weeks until the United Kingdom is due by law to leave the European Union on March 29, there is no agreement yet in London on how and even whether to leave the world's biggest trading bloc. Parliament defeated May's deal two weeks ago by a huge margin with many Brexit-supporting rebels in her Conservative Party angry at the Irish backstop, an insurance policy aimed at preventing a hard border in Ireland if no other solutions can be agreed. Ahead of Tuesday's votes in the British parliament on a way forward, lawmakers in May's party are pushing for her to demand the European Union drop the backstop and replace it with something else. Ireland said the backstop was staying and the European Commission repeated on Monday that the withdrawal agreement text, and its backstop component, is not open for renegotiation. "The European Parliament will not ratify a withdrawal agreement that doesn't have a backstop in it, it's as simple as that," Ireland's Deputy Prime Minister Simon Coveney told the BBC. As the Brexit crisis goes down to the line, however, EU officials indicated there might be wriggle room if May came back with a clear, and viable, request for changes that she - and the EU - believe will secure a final ratification. The backstop is a type of insurance policy aimed at preventing a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland if no other solutions can be agreed. It is the most contentious part of May's deal. IRELAND The question for May is whether the EU can offer enough to get a variant of her defeated deal through the British parliament. Possible amendments floated by EU officials range from further public assurances that the backstop would probably never be used or only for a brief period to amending the text which accompanies the treaty and which lays out expectations for the trading relationship that will come in after the transition. The EU has explicitly said if Britain were to stay in a customs union indefinitely, as the opposition Labour Party favours, that could leave the backstop redundant. One key element is maintaining a united front with the Irish government, which insists it needs the backstop without a time limit to ensure there is no physical frontier, which could become a target of the violence that has been reduced as a result of the two-decade-old Good Friday Agreement peace deal. EU and Irish leaders insist that Dublin is under no pressure to relent. However, a looming no-deal Brexit, in which the EU insists Ireland cannot leave an open door to British goods, has highlighted the difficulty Ireland will face if the backstop issue scuppers an agreement. EU leaders are open to giving May more time beyond March 29 if she can convince them she will use the time to secure the elusive orderly outcome, whether leaving or staying. "SHOW US YOUR MAJORITY" Brussels and the national governments are keeping their options open, however, determined not to give in to British demands that they believe would undermine their single market but also anxious to use every possibility to avoid chaos. But they are reluctant to offer May more concessions that then fail to satisfy British lawmakers. "Theresa May must show us a majority for something concrete. Come back and be specific about what she needs to get the deal passed," one EU source told Reuters. "All eyes are on the House of Commons, what amendments pass and what can be built on their basis, maybe around the middle of February," said another. May is trying to use a series of votes in parliament on Tuesday to find a consensus that lawmakers in her own party could support, just two weeks since her deal suffered the biggest parliamentary defeat in modern British history. The British parliament on Tuesday will vote on proposals put forward by lawmakers including a delay to Brexit and going back to the EU to demand changes to the Northern Irish backstop. In essence, May is forcing lawmakers to show their cards on what sort of Brexit, if any, they want. Lawmakers in her own party want her to demand a last-minute change to the deal to remove the backstop.

EU will not ratify Brexit withdrawal without backstop: Ireland deputy PM Coveney

Ever since the Brexit vote, Ireland has had the rest of the European Union behind it in insisting there can be no hard border with Northern Ireland when Britain leaves.

But with a draft UK-EU deal that would guarantee an open border looking increasingly frail, and the growing risk that Britain could withdraw from the union with no agreement at all, cracks are starting to emerge.

Over months of talks, both Dublin and Brussels have been loath to spell out the implications of having to carry out EU customs and regulations checks on what would become the bloc's new frontier.

A comment from the European Commission's chief spokesman Margaritis Schinas earlier this week shattered the taboo.

"In a no-deal scenario in Ireland, I think it's pretty obvious, you will have a hard border," he said.

The remark caught Dublin off-guard and the government pointed to EU promises to keep the border open.

The Irish Independent branded Schinas's comments a "Brexit backstab", suggesting they were intended "to prepare Dublin for some difficult discussions in the weeks ahead".

Schinas softened his remark the following day, saying the EU would do "all it can" to avoid a hard border.

But Ireland, which considers itself an unwilling bystander to Britain's decision to leave the EU after 46 years, is feeling under pressure to compromise over its demands.

"Why is it the country being victimised that's always being asked to give?" Prime Minister Leo Varadkar asked in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Friday.

Cooling comments

Varadkar has come under some domestic criticism for failing to prepare for the possibility of a hard border.

But Federico Fabbrini, director of Dublin City University's Brexit Institute, said the government's position was "reasonable".

"It doesn't want to take action on the border for as long as reimposing a border is avoidable," he said.

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier sought to de-dramatise the concerns, but only raised more questions.

"We will have to find an operational way of carrying out checks and controls without putting back in place a border," he said.

The EU-UK deal includes a "backstop" plan to keep the border open by keeping Britain tied to EU trade rules, but Brexit supporters in London hate it.

They seized on Barnier's comments, saying they proved the backstop was not needed to prevent a hard border.

The backstop is a major block in getting the Brexit deal agreed by the British parliament, and London is pressing the EU to modify the plan.

After months of seeming like the consistent and mature voice in Brexit negotiations, Ireland now risks appearing the stubborn obstacle to a smooth Brexit.

'A period of chaos'

Varadkar this week also warned that a no-deal would lead to a "period of chaos" and that ultimately the EU, Britain and Ireland would have to "agree on full alignment" between Northern Ireland and the Republic to avoid a hard border.

What that chaos might look like and how the EU-brokered accord would function on the 310-mile (500-kilometre) border traversed by more than 200 roads is hard to say.

Brexiteers in London say checks on the border could simply be replaced by trusted trader schemes and as-yet-untested technology.

Speaking in Davos on Friday, Varadkar said it could "involve people in uniform" -- as well as "cameras, physical infrastructure, possibly a police presence, or an army presence to back it up".

That would be a concerning development on a border where the last military checkpoints were dismantled 20 years ago after a peace accord ended three decades of conflict.

Given Ireland's refusal to prepare for a hard border, there could also be days or even weeks when the frontier is effectively ungoverned by international law.

"You could have hundreds of lorries parking up at the border awaiting some kind of clearance," said Seamus Leheny, policy manager of the Freight Transport Association in Northern Ireland.

"We could be left in a situation where some hauliers will have to take the decision to turn away any freight going across the border. The concern they have is they technically could be seen as smuggling."

Ever since the Brexit vote, Ireland has had the rest of the European Union behind it in insisting there can be no hard border with Northern Ireland when Britain leaves.

Ever since the Brexit vote, Ireland has had the rest of the European Union behind it in insisting there can be no hard border with Northern Ireland when Britain leaves. But with a draft UK-EU deal that would guarantee an open border looking increasingly frail, and the growing risk that Britain could withdraw from the union with no agreement at all, cracks are starting to emerge. Over months of talks, both Dublin and Brussels have been loath to spell out the implications of having to carry out EU customs and regulations checks on what would become the bloc's new frontier. A comment from the European Commission's chief spokesman Margaritis Schinas earlier this week shattered the taboo. "In a no-deal scenario in Ireland, I think it's pretty obvious, you will have a hard border," he said. The remark caught Dublin off-guard and the government pointed to EU promises to keep the border open. The Irish Independent branded Schinas's comments a "Brexit backstab", suggesting they were intended "to prepare Dublin for some difficult discussions in the weeks ahead". Schinas softened his remark the following day, saying the EU would do "all it can" to avoid a hard border. But Ireland, which considers itself an unwilling bystander to Britain's decision to leave the EU after 46 years, is feeling under pressure to compromise over its demands. "Why is it the country being victimised that's always being asked to give?" Prime Minister Leo Varadkar asked in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Friday. Cooling comments Varadkar has come under some domestic criticism for failing to prepare for the possibility of a hard border. But Federico Fabbrini, director of Dublin City University's Brexit Institute, said the government's position was "reasonable". "It doesn't want to take action on the border for as long as reimposing a border is avoidable," he said. EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier sought to de-dramatise the concerns, but only raised more questions. "We will have to find an operational way of carrying out checks and controls without putting back in place a border," he said. The EU-UK deal includes a "backstop" plan to keep the border open by keeping Britain tied to EU trade rules, but Brexit supporters in London hate it. They seized on Barnier's comments, saying they proved the backstop was not needed to prevent a hard border. The backstop is a major block in getting the Brexit deal agreed by the British parliament, and London is pressing the EU to modify the plan. After months of seeming like the consistent and mature voice in Brexit negotiations, Ireland now risks appearing the stubborn obstacle to a smooth Brexit. 'A period of chaos' Varadkar this week also warned that a no-deal would lead to a "period of chaos" and that ultimately the EU, Britain and Ireland would have to "agree on full alignment" between Northern Ireland and the Republic to avoid a hard border. What that chaos might look like and how the EU-brokered accord would function on the 310-mile (500-kilometre) border traversed by more than 200 roads is hard to say. Brexiteers in London say checks on the border could simply be replaced by trusted trader schemes and as-yet-untested technology. Speaking in Davos on Friday, Varadkar said it could "involve people in uniform" -- as well as "cameras, physical infrastructure, possibly a police presence, or an army presence to back it up". That would be a concerning development on a border where the last military checkpoints were dismantled 20 years ago after a peace accord ended three decades of conflict. Given Ireland's refusal to prepare for a hard border, there could also be days or even weeks when the frontier is effectively ungoverned by international law. "You could have hundreds of lorries parking up at the border awaiting some kind of clearance," said Seamus Leheny, policy manager of the Freight Transport Association in Northern Ireland. "We could be left in a situation where some hauliers will have to take the decision to turn away any freight going across the border. The concern they have is they technically could be seen as smuggling."

With two months to Brexit, cracks form on Irish border

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/south-asia/us-peace-envoy-visits-kabul-to-consult-afghanistan-president-ashraf-ghani-on-talks-with-taliban-193206">US peace envoy visits Kabul to consult Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani on talks with Taliban</a>

US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad arrived in Kabul on Sunday to try to secure cooperation from Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani after breakthroughs in peace negotiations with Taliban leaders in Qatar.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/communist-govt-kerala-disrespecting-all-aspects-of-keralas-culture-alleges-modi-193201">Communist</a><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/communist-govt-kerala-disrespecting-all-aspects-of-keralas-culture-alleges-modi-193201"> government in Kerala disrespecting Kerala </a><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/communist-govt-kerala-disrespecting-all-aspects-of-keralas-culture-alleges-modi-193201">culture,</a><a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/communist-govt-kerala-disrespecting-all-aspects-of-keralas-culture-alleges-modi-193201"> alleges Modi</a>

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday launched a fresh attack on&nbsp;Pinarayi Vijayan-led Communist government in Kerala accusing it of disrespecting all aspects of Kerala's culture.&nbsp;

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/ayodhya-case-deferred-again-will-not-heard-on-january-29-193190">Ayodhya case deferred again, will not be heard on January 29</a>

News agency ANI reported on Sunday that the case will not be heard on January 29 due to the non-availability of one of the judges from the five-judge constitution bench.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/uk-govt-may-scrap-mps-holiday-to-pass-brexit-laws-193184">UK government may scrap MPs' holiday to pass Brexit laws</a>

British MPs could sit long hours and their February holiday may be scrapped as the government races to pass its Brexit legislation before Britain leaves the EU on March 29, Downing Street said Sunday.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/icici-bank-case-investigating-officer-transferred-for-his-role-in-leaking-information-related-to-searches-193153">ICICI Bank case: Probe officer transferred for 'leaking information related to searches'</a>

The Central Bureau of Investigation has justified the transfer&nbsp;of Sudhanshu Dhar Mishra, the investigating officer in the ICICI Bank case, citing his role in leaking information related to searches.

US peace envoy visits Kabul to consult Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani on talks with Taliban US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad arrived in Kabul on Sunday to try to secure cooperation from Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani after breakthroughs in peace negotiations with Taliban leaders in Qatar.

US peace envoy visits Kabul to consult Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani on talks with Taliban US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad arrived in Kabul on Sunday to try to secure cooperation from Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani after breakthroughs in peace negotiations with Taliban leaders in Qatar. Communist government in Kerala disrespecting Kerala culture, alleges Modi Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday launched a fresh attack on Pinarayi Vijayan-led Communist government in Kerala accusing it of disrespecting all aspects of Kerala's culture. Ayodhya case deferred again, will not be heard on January 29 News agency ANI reported on Sunday that the case will not be heard on January 29 due to the non-availability of one of the judges from the five-judge constitution bench. UK government may scrap MPs' holiday to pass Brexit laws British MPs could sit long hours and their February holiday may be scrapped as the government races to pass its Brexit legislation before Britain leaves the EU on March 29, Downing Street said Sunday. ICICI Bank case: Probe officer transferred for 'leaking information related to searches' The Central Bureau of Investigation has justified the transfer of Sudhanshu Dhar Mishra, the investigating officer in the ICICI Bank case, citing his role in leaking information related to searches.

The date Britain leaves the EU could be pushed back by a couple of weeks to give time for legislation to be approved by lawmakers, the leader of Britain's lower house of parliament said, the most senior figure to make such a suggestion.

Britain, the world's fifth largest economy, is due to leave the European Union on March 29 but <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/attempts-to-delay-brexit-do-not-solve-the-issue-says-uk-pm-theresa-may-19231">Prime Minister Theresa May</a>'s negotiated exit deal was rejected by lawmakers, leaving open the possibility of a disorderly <a href="http://www.wionews.com/opinions/why-a-no-deal-brexit-would-be-less-costly-for-the-eu-than-the-uk-192654">Brexit</a>.

Parliament will now vote on a series of amendments on Tuesday with the United Kingdom facing its deepest political crisis in half a century as it grapples with how, or even whether, to exit the European project it joined in 1973.

"We can get the legislation through and I think we do, in spite of everything, have a very strong relationship with our EU friends and neighbours and I am absolutely certain that if we needed a couple of extra weeks or something then that would be feasible," Andrea Leadsom told the BBC.

Responding to the idea that this would mean extending the two-year Article 50 negotiation period, Leadsom, who is the organiser of government business in the lower house of parliament, told the BBC:

"It doesn't necessarily mean that. I think we would want to think carefully about it. But as things stand I do feel that we can get, with the support of both Houses - the House of Commons and the House of Lords - with goodwill and a determination we can still get the legislation through in good time."

A spokeswoman at May's No. 10 Downing Street office said the government's position had not changed.

"We are not considering an extension to article 50 and are committed to doing whatever it takes to have the statute books ready for when we leave the EU on March 29th this year."

The uncertainty has prompted several businesses to warn of the threat to jobs and investment if Britain were to crash out of the EU, potentially disrupting food and medicine supplies, manufacturers and transportation.

The date Britain leaves the EU could be pushed back by a couple of weeks to give time for legislation to be approved by lawmakers, the leader of Britain's lower house of parliament said, the most senior figure to make such a suggestion.

The date Britain leaves the EU could be pushed back by a couple of weeks to give time for legislation to be approved by lawmakers, the leader of Britain's lower house of parliament said, the most senior figure to make such a suggestion. Britain, the world's fifth largest economy, is due to leave the European Union on March 29 but Prime Minister Theresa May's negotiated exit deal was rejected by lawmakers, leaving open the possibility of a disorderly Brexit. Parliament will now vote on a series of amendments on Tuesday with the United Kingdom facing its deepest political crisis in half a century as it grapples with how, or even whether, to exit the European project it joined in 1973. "We can get the legislation through and I think we do, in spite of everything, have a very strong relationship with our EU friends and neighbours and I am absolutely certain that if we needed a couple of extra weeks or something then that would be feasible," Andrea Leadsom told the BBC. Responding to the idea that this would mean extending the two-year Article 50 negotiation period, Leadsom, who is the organiser of government business in the lower house of parliament, told the BBC: "It doesn't necessarily mean that. I think we would want to think carefully about it. But as things stand I do feel that we can get, with the support of both Houses - the House of Commons and the House of Lords - with goodwill and a determination we can still get the legislation through in good time." A spokeswoman at May's No. 10 Downing Street office said the government's position had not changed. "We are not considering an extension to article 50 and are committed to doing whatever it takes to have the statute books ready for when we leave the EU on March 29th this year." The uncertainty has prompted several businesses to warn of the threat to jobs and investment if Britain were to crash out of the EU, potentially disrupting food and medicine supplies, manufacturers and transportation.

Brexit date could be pushed back by a 'couple of extra weeks': Energy minister Leadsom

By Agelos Delis, &nbsp;Karen Jackson and Oleksandr Shepotylo 
 
The current impasse in the British parliament has increased the probability of ending up with one of two extreme outcomes: no Brexit or no deal. While significant attention has focused on understanding the potential impact of a hard Brexit on the income of people in the UK, much less is known about the impact on the rest of the EU.

We know that the UK has a large trade deficit with some big and influential EU economies such as Germany. Therefore, some have argued that this will result in these countries influencing the EU negotiating a position and eventually offering a relatively generous deal to the UK. But our calculations find the opposite to be true.

Building on recent research by two of us into different Brexit scenarios, we looked at how a no-deal Brexit might affect the rest of the EU. We also assessed what would happen if the EU broke up entirely and all countries were left to trade on WTO-only rules. The magnitude of this gives us a sense of how important it is for the EU to stand firm in negotiations against the UK.

Our research uses a gravity model, which is widely used in the international trade literature. Many economists consider it to be the best tool for conducting applied trade policy. In essence, it is based on the idea that two countries trade in proportion to the size of their economies and trade less the further away they are to one another because this is more costly. As well as being firmly rooted in economic theory, it captures many features of the real world without being overcomplicated and predicts trade flows remarkably well.

Effect on the EU27

Our new results indicate that all EU27 countries will lose out from a disorderly Brexit, but that losses are not distributed evenly between the rest of the EU countries. Roughly speaking, there are three groups of countries.

The country that loses the most in terms of GDP, around 1 per cent, is Ireland. This is expected given its geographic proximity, common language and historical ties with the UK. The second largest decline in GDP from a no-deal Brexit is observed for Cyprus, at around 0.2 per cent of its GDP. This result is surprising to some extent given the distance of Cyprus from the UK. But it could be explained by common institutions (Cyprus was a colony of the UK until 1960) as well as the close historical and business ties between the two islands.

After Ireland and Cyprus, the vast majority of EU countries will face a decline of their GDP from 0.18 per cent (Spain) to just below 0.1 per cent (Croatia). And the last group of EU countries, from Central and Eastern Europe, will have among the lowest decline in GDP. Hungary with 0.08 per cent and Austria with 0.03 per cent of GDP.

It is interesting to note that the four biggest EU27 countries will face a small drop in their GDP in the case of a No Deal Brexit scenario. Germany faces a 0.16 per cent drop; France, 0.17 per cent; Italy, 0.14 per cent, and Spain, 0.18 per cent. Hence, the overall effect on the EU27 will be a fairly small decline in their combined GDP – a weighted average of 0.17 per cent. In comparison, we find that a no-deal Brexit will reduce the UK’s GDP by a staggering 5.8 per cent of GDP.

These results can easily be understood when we consider the fact that each individual EU country trades much more with the rest of the EU as a whole than just the UK. Consequently, each remaining EU country will have much more to lose in the event of the UK getting a deal that includes the benefits of EU membership without any of the costs, as this would undermine the future existence of the EU.

If the EU breaks down

To further understand the potential impact of a collapse of the EU project, we present evidence on what will be the effect for each individual EU country. Here, the assumption is that the EU breaks down and all EU countries begin trading under WTO rules.

In such a scenario, the GDP of the EU countries would fall by 4.7 per cent on average, with Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands experiencing the highest declines of 5.5 per cent, 5.4 per cent and 5.3 per cent of their GDP respectively. The rest of the countries face similar economic losses from 5.2 per cent of GDP for Austria to just below 4 per cent for Greece. The lowest loss in terms of GDP is for Cyprus with a 3.2 per cent decline. Note that in this scenario, the UK’s GDP will be reduced by 4.5 per cent.

From the above analysis, it is apparent that EU countries have much more to lose from the disintegration of the EU than Brexit. Following the gravity model, this is because countries tend to lose more in terms of international trade, and consequently their GDP, when their deep economic ties are cut with their bigger neighbours.

Hence, it is no surprise that the EU27 has shown a consistent and unified stance towards resisting the UK’s demands during the Brexit process. On this basis, there is little evidence to support the idea that EU negotiators will be forthcoming with a last minute, significantly more favourable Brexit package.

(Agelos Delis is Lecturer in Economics, Aston University; Karen Jackson Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Westminster; Oleksandr Shepotylo Lecturer in Economics, Aston University)

(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-no-deal-brexit-would-be-less-costly-for-the-eu-than-the-uk-110407">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

By Agelos Delis, Karen Jackson and Oleksandr Shepotylo The current impasse in the British parliament has increased the probability of ending up with one of two extreme outcomes: no Brexit or no deal.

By Agelos Delis, Karen Jackson and Oleksandr Shepotylo The current impasse in the British parliament has increased the probability of ending up with one of two extreme outcomes: no Brexit or no deal. While significant attention has focused on understanding the potential impact of a hard Brexit on the income of people in the UK, much less is known about the impact on the rest of the EU. We know that the UK has a large trade deficit with some big and influential EU economies such as Germany. Therefore, some have argued that this will result in these countries influencing the EU negotiating a position and eventually offering a relatively generous deal to the UK. But our calculations find the opposite to be true. Building on recent research by two of us into different Brexit scenarios, we looked at how a no-deal Brexit might affect the rest of the EU. We also assessed what would happen if the EU broke up entirely and all countries were left to trade on WTO-only rules. The magnitude of this gives us a sense of how important it is for the EU to stand firm in negotiations against the UK. Our research uses a gravity model, which is widely used in the international trade literature. Many economists consider it to be the best tool for conducting applied trade policy. In essence, it is based on the idea that two countries trade in proportion to the size of their economies and trade less the further away they are to one another because this is more costly. As well as being firmly rooted in economic theory, it captures many features of the real world without being overcomplicated and predicts trade flows remarkably well. Effect on the EU27 Our new results indicate that all EU27 countries will lose out from a disorderly Brexit, but that losses are not distributed evenly between the rest of the EU countries. Roughly speaking, there are three groups of countries. The country that loses the most in terms of GDP, around 1 per cent, is Ireland. This is expected given its geographic proximity, common language and historical ties with the UK. The second largest decline in GDP from a no-deal Brexit is observed for Cyprus, at around 0.2 per cent of its GDP. This result is surprising to some extent given the distance of Cyprus from the UK. But it could be explained by common institutions (Cyprus was a colony of the UK until 1960) as well as the close historical and business ties between the two islands. After Ireland and Cyprus, the vast majority of EU countries will face a decline of their GDP from 0.18 per cent (Spain) to just below 0.1 per cent (Croatia). And the last group of EU countries, from Central and Eastern Europe, will have among the lowest decline in GDP. Hungary with 0.08 per cent and Austria with 0.03 per cent of GDP. It is interesting to note that the four biggest EU27 countries will face a small drop in their GDP in the case of a No Deal Brexit scenario. Germany faces a 0.16 per cent drop; France, 0.17 per cent; Italy, 0.14 per cent, and Spain, 0.18 per cent. Hence, the overall effect on the EU27 will be a fairly small decline in their combined GDP – a weighted average of 0.17 per cent. In comparison, we find that a no-deal Brexit will reduce the UK’s GDP by a staggering 5.8 per cent of GDP. These results can easily be understood when we consider the fact that each individual EU country trades much more with the rest of the EU as a whole than just the UK. Consequently, each remaining EU country will have much more to lose in the event of the UK getting a deal that includes the benefits of EU membership without any of the costs, as this would undermine the future existence of the EU. If the EU breaks down To further understand the potential impact of a collapse of the EU project, we present evidence on what will be the effect for each individual EU country. Here, the assumption is that the EU breaks down and all EU countries begin trading under WTO rules. In such a scenario, the GDP of the EU countries would fall by 4.7 per cent on average, with Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands experiencing the highest declines of 5.5 per cent, 5.4 per cent and 5.3 per cent of their GDP respectively. The rest of the countries face similar economic losses from 5.2 per cent of GDP for Austria to just below 4 per cent for Greece. The lowest loss in terms of GDP is for Cyprus with a 3.2 per cent decline. Note that in this scenario, the UK’s GDP will be reduced by 4.5 per cent. From the above analysis, it is apparent that EU countries have much more to lose from the disintegration of the EU than Brexit. Following the gravity model, this is because countries tend to lose more in terms of international trade, and consequently their GDP, when their deep economic ties are cut with their bigger neighbours. Hence, it is no surprise that the EU27 has shown a consistent and unified stance towards resisting the UK’s demands during the Brexit process. On this basis, there is little evidence to support the idea that EU negotiators will be forthcoming with a last minute, significantly more favourable Brexit package. (Agelos Delis is Lecturer in Economics, Aston University; Karen Jackson Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Westminster; Oleksandr Shepotylo Lecturer in Economics, Aston University) (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

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