Will fuel prices spike post-festive season? What analysts say
Analysts say fuel prices in India may not spike after the festive season if global crude stays low. Retail prices should remain steady unless there’s a supply shock or major policy change. Know more below.
Fuel prices in India
Fuel prices in India often see stable or falling rates during major festivals as oil companies keep prices steady for consumers. But after the festive season, many wonder if prices will jump again. Analysts say the answer hinges on global trends and domestic policy.
Post-festive season
Some analysts expect a temporary price rise post-festive season as oil marketing firms adjust prices to match higher crude import costs and exchange rates, which they often absorb during holidays to avoid affecting sentiment.
Falling global oil prices
However, India currently benefits from stable or even falling global oil prices. As of late September 2025, crude oil averaged $72-75 per barrel, which is lowest in three years, softening the impact on local fuel rates.
Falling crude oil
The government’s April 2025 excise duty hike of Rs 2 per litre on petrol and diesel was offset against falling crude, so retail prices did not change much for customers at the pump.
Demand during festivals
Analysts with Mehta Equities and ICRA say if crude oil stays in its present range, there is little room for a fuel price spike even as demand rises high after festivals.
Daily price trackers
Most expect prices to remain stable through the end of 2025 unless there’s a sudden jump in global oil or new government tax changes. For up-to-date rates, watch daily price trackers and government advisories.
)
)
)
)
)