El Nino weakens but will sustain elevated temperatures: UN weather agency

The El Nino weather pattern has commenced its weakening phase but is anticipated to continue influencing above-average temperatures worldwide, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Tuesday (March 5).

El Nino, a naturally occurring phenomenon linked to disrupted wind patterns resulting in warmer ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, typically occurs every two to seven years.

Lasting approximately nine to 12 months, El Nino often triggers extreme weather events such as wildfires, tropical cyclones, and prolonged droughts.

WMO spokesperson Claire Nullis stated that El Nino reached its peak in December, ranking among the five strongest occurrences in history. While gradually diminishing, it is expected to impact global climate in the upcoming months, leading to above-normal temperatures from March to May in most land areas.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that El Nino had played a role in recent temperature records. Since June 2023, every month has set new temperature records, making 2023 the warmest year on record. Saulo emphasised that while El Nino contributed to these elevated temperatures, the primary culprit remains heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

The WMO indicated a 60 per cent likelihood of El Nino persisting from March to May, with an 80 per cent chance of neutral conditions (neither El Nino nor La Nina) from April to June. There is a possibility of La Nina, characterised by unusually cold Pacific Ocean temperatures, emerging later in the year, though the odds remain uncertain, as per the WMO.

According to a analysis made earlier stated, El Nino climate event is anticipated to intensify global warming, leading to record-breaking temperatures spanning from the Amazon to Alaska in 2024.

Scientists also project that coastal regions near the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea, India, the Philippines and the Caribbean will experience exceptional heat until June, with the potential for El Nino's influence to diminish thereafter.

El Nino, characterised by the release of heat from the western Pacific Ocean, has historically elevated global surface temperatures and played a significant role in making 2023 the hottest year on record by a substantial margin.

(With inputs from agencies)