Polymarket account that bet US will attack Iran by Feb 28 has now bet on a ceasefire by March 31
&imwidth=600&imheight=450&format=webp&quality=medium "Polymarket account that bet US will attack Iran by Feb 28 has now bet on a ceasefire by March 31")
Iran war bets on Polymarket have once again triggered rumours of insider trading. Photograph: (AFP)
At least 10 Polymarket accounts have bet that a cease-fire between the US and Iran would happen by March 31 or April 15. One of these accounts had also bet on an attack happening by February 28. An expert thinks all these accounts could be linked to one person.
Polymarket wagers are once again at the centre of a controversy amid America's war on Iran. On Monday, even before Donald Trump announced a halt to strikes on Iran, some accounts made big bets that the war would end as soon as this week. Ten accounts that were opened only recently bet thousands of dollars on Polymarket's "US x Iran cease-fire" market, which says a cease-fire would happen by March 31 or April 15. In total, they have wagered around $160,000 on the cease-fire, and if it happens, they could win $1 million. Some of these accounts are less than a week old, The Guardian reported. An account on X named Lirrato identified the Polymarket accounts. One of them is especially concerning since it has already won over $85,000 on two bets linked to Iran. The handle named "NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS" opened around the end of February. Its first bet was worth $7,600 on the US striking Iran by February 28. It next bet $11,283 on a strike by March 1.
Same Polymarket account has bet on a ceasefire date
This account has now bet $8,005 on a ceasefire by March 31, and $15,614 on a cease-fire by April 15. These two bets are already up by $30,000 in value. Following President Trump’s post on Monday, the paper profits for those ten prediction-market accounts surged by over $300,000. Most Polymarket users are wagering that a ceasefire will not occur by March 31, with only 17 per cent buying "Yes." The timing of these bets has once again triggered chatter of insider trading. Former CoinTelegraph researcher Ben Yorke told The Guardian that it definitely looks like "someone with some degree of inside info" owns those accounts. He said it is also possible that the other accounts have split from one main account, which means a single investor is placing these bets under different accounts.
Polymarket account made $400,000 betting on Venezuela operation
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Polymarket and the talk of insider trading gained momentum when one trader made over $400,000 by betting that the US would carry out a military operation in Venezuela. Shockingly, days later, the US announced that it had captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. Meanwhile, Polymarket has updated its rules and announced on Monday that it explicitly prohibits "trading on stolen confidential information, trading on illegal tips, and trading when the Polymarket user has the ability to influence the outcome of the event." Meanwhile, Kalshi, its competitor, banned two traders for insider trading after publicly revealing for the first time investigations into insider trading.
