Consumer confidence in the United States fell for a third straight month in October as gloomier economic forecasts and rising prices dampened optimism.&nbsp;

Data released on Tuesday showed that The Conference Board's index dropped from 104.3 in September to 102.6 last month, which is a five-month low.&nbsp;

The group's current conditions index hit a one-year low of 143.1. The index of consumer confidence in the next six months -- Expectations Index -- dropped to its lowest level in five months. Inversely, a gauge of expected inflation rose last month.&nbsp;

High prices have continued to put pressure on Americans. Even though inflation has eased dramatically over the past year, its residual effects prevent a full confidence recovery.

"Consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates," Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, said in a press release.&nbsp;

Moreover, consumers expressed worries about the Israel-Hamas war impacting the US economy. The Conference Board report showed that the decline in consumer confidence was evident across householders aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group.&nbsp;

The dip in consumer confidence comes at a time when&nbsp;the US economy has shown remarkable resilience. The US economy grew almost 5 per cent in the July-September quarter, as higher wages from a tight labor market helped to fuel consumer spending and businesses restocked to meet the strong demand.&nbsp;

"Not only is the economy surprisingly resilient, we also got productivity-driven growth for two consecutive quarters in 2023, meaning the business cycle still looks very solid," Reuters quoted Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College, as commenting on the report by the&nbsp;Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.&nbsp;

However, the latest report showed that consumer fears about an impending recession remain elevated, with the group anticipating a short and shallow economic contraction in the first half of 2024.&nbsp;

On the employment front, reports of "plentiful" employment fell for the fourth consecutive month in October. But for the first time since June, the gap between those who think jobs are "plentiful" and those who say they are "hard to get" widened. This is a key indicator for economists tracking the health of the labour market.

(With inputs from agencies)

Consumer confidence in the United States fell for a third straight month in October as gloomier economic forecasts and rising prices dampened optimism. Data released on Tuesday showed that The Conference Board's index dropped from 104.

Consumer confidence in the United States fell for a third straight month in October as gloomier economic forecasts and rising prices dampened optimism. Data released on Tuesday showed that The Conference Board's index dropped from 104.3 in September to 102.6 last month, which is a five-month low. The group's current conditions index hit a one-year low of 143.1. The index of consumer confidence in the next six months -- Expectations Index -- dropped to its lowest level in five months. Inversely, a gauge of expected inflation rose last month. High prices have continued to put pressure on Americans. Even though inflation has eased dramatically over the past year, its residual effects prevent a full confidence recovery. "Consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates," Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, said in a press release. Moreover, consumers expressed worries about the Israel-Hamas war impacting the US economy. The Conference Board report showed that the decline in consumer confidence was evident across householders aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group. The dip in consumer confidence comes at a time when the US economy has shown remarkable resilience. The US economy grew almost 5 per cent in the July-September quarter, as higher wages from a tight labor market helped to fuel consumer spending and businesses restocked to meet the strong demand. "Not only is the economy surprisingly resilient, we also got productivity-driven growth for two consecutive quarters in 2023, meaning the business cycle still looks very solid," Reuters quoted Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College, as commenting on the report by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. However, the latest report showed that consumer fears about an impending recession remain elevated, with the group anticipating a short and shallow economic contraction in the first half of 2024. On the employment front, reports of "plentiful" employment fell for the fourth consecutive month in October. But for the first time since June, the gap between those who think jobs are "plentiful" and those who say they are "hard to get" widened. This is a key indicator for economists tracking the health of the labour market. (With inputs from agencies)

US consumer confidence hits a five-month low

In the likely case of a federal government shutdown anytime after funding run out on September&nbsp;30, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts a short-term impact to the US economy, followed by a comeback.

Goldman's team of economic experts forecasts that a comprehensive government shutdown could lead to a weekly reduction of 0.2 percentage points in U.S. GDP growth, along with supplementary ramifications for the private sector. Goldman predicts that the losses incurred during the shutdown will be recuperated in the subsequent quarter.

In a communication to clients on Sunday, a senior U.S. political economist at Goldman Sachs conveyed, "It appears increasingly probable that the federal government will undergo a temporary shutdown later this year."

Furthermore, unlike the prior debate to increase the debt ceiling earlier this year, the current political dispute over spending lacks the potentially catastrophic consequences, as the United States faced the risk of defaulting on certain obligations. However, Goldman Sachs indicates&nbsp;that this "raises the chances of Congress failing to take action in a timely manner" regarding the funding legislation.

Additionally, forecast suggests that&nbsp;"previous shutdowns haven't triggered significant reactions in the markets," with stock performance remaining unchanged or even positive during shutdowns in 1995–96, 2013, and 2018–19.

Last month, lawmakers departed for an August recess without resolving the fiscal 2024 funding bills. The House is not slated to reconvene until September 12, with a to-do list encompassing the clearance of 11 out of the 12 annual appropriations bills and the resolution of disparities with the Senate in just 12 scheduled working days of the month.

(Inputs from Bloomberg)

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In the likely case of a federal government shutdown anytime after funding run out on September 30, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts a short-term impact to the US economy, followed by a comeback.

In the likely case of a federal government shutdown anytime after funding run out on September 30, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts a short-term impact to the US economy, followed by a comeback. Goldman's team of economic experts forecasts that a comprehensive government shutdown could lead to a weekly reduction of 0.2 percentage points in U.S. GDP growth, along with supplementary ramifications for the private sector. Goldman predicts that the losses incurred during the shutdown will be recuperated in the subsequent quarter. In a communication to clients on Sunday, a senior U.S. political economist at Goldman Sachs conveyed, "It appears increasingly probable that the federal government will undergo a temporary shutdown later this year." Furthermore, unlike the prior debate to increase the debt ceiling earlier this year, the current political dispute over spending lacks the potentially catastrophic consequences, as the United States faced the risk of defaulting on certain obligations. However, Goldman Sachs indicates that this "raises the chances of Congress failing to take action in a timely manner" regarding the funding legislation. Additionally, forecast suggests that "previous shutdowns haven't triggered significant reactions in the markets," with stock performance remaining unchanged or even positive during shutdowns in 1995–96, 2013, and 2018–19. Last month, lawmakers departed for an August recess without resolving the fiscal 2024 funding bills. The House is not slated to reconvene until September 12, with a to-do list encompassing the clearance of 11 out of the 12 annual appropriations bills and the resolution of disparities with the Senate in just 12 scheduled working days of the month. (Inputs from Bloomberg) WATCH WION LIVE HERE

Goldman Sachs predicts US GDP and markets to withstand expected government shutdown

Asian stocks rose to a five-week high on Tuesday after US&nbsp;Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen gave a largely upbeat assessment of the US&nbsp;economic outlook, while the Dollar declined on easing expectations of interest rate increases in coming months.

Financial spreadbetters predicted Britain&#39;s Financial Times Stock Exchange&nbsp;(FTSE) 100 would open down 0.10 per cent, Germany&#39;s DAX will&nbsp;gain 0.15 percent, and France&#39;s CAC 40 to open flat.

&nbsp;Morgan Stanley Capital International&#39;s (MSCI)&nbsp;broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose more than 1 per cent, taking its gains to 6 per cent in two weeks, as investors judged the Fed&#39;s cautious stance as well-suited to equities.

In Asia, Hong Kong led regional stock markets, rising 1 per cent as investors hunted for bargains in one of the cheapest equity markets in the region.

Japan&#39;s Nikkei ended up 0.6 per cent as attention turned to whether the Bank of Japan will ease policy again next week, as strength in the yen crimps the economy.

&quot;Yellen&#39;s comments yesterday downplayed the impact of the jobs data last week and gave a cautious sense of optimism on the outlook for the U.S. economy,&quot; said Fan Cheuk Wan, head of Asia investment strategy at HSBC Private Bank.

&quot;Her comments point towards the world remaining stuck in a low-growth and low-yield environment which should be positive for risky assets and keep the dollar soft,&quot; Wan added.

The Fed chief said last month&#39;s jobs report was &quot;disappointing&quot; but warned against attaching too much significance to the payrolls data in isolation.

Still, Yellen was careful not to give any hints about the timing of a next rate increase, in contrast to a speech on May 27, when she said such a move would probably be appropriate &quot;in coming months.&quot;

World markets cheered her comments, with US&nbsp;stocks closing a shade below a recent record.

Money market futures reduced bets on a July rate hike further, to around 20 per cent, from 30 pe rcent before Yellen&#39;s comments. They were pricing in about a 60 per cent chance of a rate hike by July before Friday&#39;s weak payrolls data.

With the Fed suggesting it was in no rush to increase interest rates, bond yields slipped with 10-year US&nbsp;Treasury yields retreating to 1.74 per cent from 1.84 per cent last week. Benchmark yields are down 63 basis points so far this year.

Lower yields on government debt translated into further inflows into relatively higher-yielding corporate debt, with an index of Asian bonds tracked by JP Morgan rising to fresh highs.

Inflows into Asia-focused equity funds also showed a noticeable pickup in recent weeks, according to Thomson Reuters data.

The Dollar index against a basket of other major currencies hit a four-week low of 93.745 before bouncing back to 94.066.

The euro eased to $1.13590 after having scaled a four-week high of $1.3930, while the yen also stepped back to 107.545 per Dollar from Monday&#39;s five-week high of 106.35.

The Australian Dollar climbed to a one-month high of $0.7426 after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady at a policy meeting and investors scaled back expectations of a near-term cut.

Elsewhere, oil prices held firm after crippling attacks on Nigeria&#39;s oil industry and fresh draws in US&nbsp;crude stockpiles.

Global crude benchmark Brent futures hit a seven-month high of $50.83 per barrel on Monday before easing to $50.46 early on Tuesday.

US&nbsp;West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude stood firm in Asia at $49.60 per barrel, after rising 2.2 percent on Monday, its largest gain in three weeks.

Asian stocks soared after Janet Yellen, US Fed chair, found the US economic outlook to be satisfactory.

Asian stocks rose to a five-week high on Tuesday after US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen gave a largely upbeat assessment of the US economic outlook, while the Dollar declined on easing expectations of interest rate increases in coming months. Financial spreadbetters predicted Britain's Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100 would open down 0.10 per cent, Germany's DAX will gain 0.15 percent, and France's CAC 40 to open flat. Morgan Stanley Capital International's (MSCI) broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose more than 1 per cent, taking its gains to 6 per cent in two weeks, as investors judged the Fed's cautious stance as well-suited to equities. In Asia, Hong Kong led regional stock markets, rising 1 per cent as investors hunted for bargains in one of the cheapest equity markets in the region. Japan's Nikkei ended up 0.6 per cent as attention turned to whether the Bank of Japan will ease policy again next week, as strength in the yen crimps the economy. "Yellen's comments yesterday downplayed the impact of the jobs data last week and gave a cautious sense of optimism on the outlook for the U.S. economy," said Fan Cheuk Wan, head of Asia investment strategy at HSBC Private Bank. "Her comments point towards the world remaining stuck in a low-growth and low-yield environment which should be positive for risky assets and keep the dollar soft," Wan added. The Fed chief said last month's jobs report was "disappointing" but warned against attaching too much significance to the payrolls data in isolation. Still, Yellen was careful not to give any hints about the timing of a next rate increase, in contrast to a speech on May 27, when she said such a move would probably be appropriate "in coming months." World markets cheered her comments, with US stocks closing a shade below a recent record. Money market futures reduced bets on a July rate hike further, to around 20 per cent, from 30 pe rcent before Yellen's comments. They were pricing in about a 60 per cent chance of a rate hike by July before Friday's weak payrolls data. With the Fed suggesting it was in no rush to increase interest rates, bond yields slipped with 10-year US Treasury yields retreating to 1.74 per cent from 1.84 per cent last week. Benchmark yields are down 63 basis points so far this year. Lower yields on government debt translated into further inflows into relatively higher-yielding corporate debt, with an index of Asian bonds tracked by JP Morgan rising to fresh highs. Inflows into Asia-focused equity funds also showed a noticeable pickup in recent weeks, according to Thomson Reuters data. The Dollar index against a basket of other major currencies hit a four-week low of 93.745 before bouncing back to 94.066. The euro eased to $1.13590 after having scaled a four-week high of $1.3930, while the yen also stepped back to 107.545 per Dollar from Monday's five-week high of 106.35. The Australian Dollar climbed to a one-month high of $0.7426 after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady at a policy meeting and investors scaled back expectations of a near-term cut. Elsewhere, oil prices held firm after crippling attacks on Nigeria's oil industry and fresh draws in US crude stockpiles. Global crude benchmark Brent futures hit a seven-month high of $50.83 per barrel on Monday before easing to $50.46 early on Tuesday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude stood firm in Asia at $49.60 per barrel, after rising 2.2 percent on Monday, its largest gain in three weeks.

Asian stocks rise, Dollar eases as US economic outlook gets thumbs up from Fed