The United States is witnessing the most substantial economic expansion in nearly two years, fuelled by a resilient job market, increasing wealth, and easing inflation. Gross domestic product (GDP) is anticipated to have surged at an annual rate of 4.5 per cent in the third quarter, more than doubling the pace of the prior period, Bloomberg reported. This news comes as a surprise, particularly due to the Federal Reserve's expectations of a slowing consumer demand.

Bloomberg quoted Elie Maalouf, CEO of InterContinental Hotels Group, as saying, "The US consumer has been surprising most predictions, including the Federal Reserve predictions, which is almost looking for the US consumer to soften, and yet they don't."

For President Joe Biden, this economic boom is welcome news, demonstrating the success of his economic policies. However, it also presents a dilemma for the Federal Reserve. Since March 2022, the central bank has been aggressively raising interest rates to combat inflation while avoiding a recession. While inflation has eased with improvements in global supply chains and a decrease in disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, domestic demand in the US remains strong, defying the Fed's efforts.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that policymakers are likely to maintain interest rates at their current levels during the upcoming meeting. Still, the door is open to future increases if strong growth continues. According to Bloomberg, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. chief economist Bruce Kasman remarked, "He may not have a lot of patience if the growth numbers don't cool pretty quickly here."

Powell acknowledges that growth is expected to slow in the fourth quarter and into the next year, with economists projecting GDP to expand at an annual rate of just 0.7 per cent in the current quarter. The challenge is that the economy's resilience has taken many, including the Fed, by surprise.

Consumer spending experienced a significant boost in the third quarter, driven by solid wage gains and receding inflation. The surge in household wealth, stemming from increases in home and equity prices, likely also played a role in boosting consumption. However, some experts consider this surge to be temporary. Bloomberg cited Yelena Shulyatyeva, a senior US economist at BNP Paribas SA, who said that the boost could be temporary.

There are factors that may not repeat in the final quarter of 2023, such as a projected decline in imports and a rise in inventories. Additionally, an upswing in mortgage rates and other headwinds could dampen the economy's performance in the near future. As Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, pointed out, growth may slow to around 1 per cent this quarter, after a strong performance of 3.8 per cent in the third. A more stable unemployment rate would be favourable for the Federal Reserve.

(Inputs from Bloomberg)

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The United States is witnessing the most substantial economic expansion in nearly two years, fuelled by a resilient job market, increasing wealth, and easing inflation.

The United States is witnessing the most substantial economic expansion in nearly two years, fuelled by a resilient job market, increasing wealth, and easing inflation. Gross domestic product (GDP) is anticipated to have surged at an annual rate of 4.5 per cent in the third quarter, more than doubling the pace of the prior period, Bloomberg reported. This news comes as a surprise, particularly due to the Federal Reserve's expectations of a slowing consumer demand. Bloomberg quoted Elie Maalouf, CEO of InterContinental Hotels Group, as saying, "The US consumer has been surprising most predictions, including the Federal Reserve predictions, which is almost looking for the US consumer to soften, and yet they don't." For President Joe Biden, this economic boom is welcome news, demonstrating the success of his economic policies. However, it also presents a dilemma for the Federal Reserve. Since March 2022, the central bank has been aggressively raising interest rates to combat inflation while avoiding a recession. While inflation has eased with improvements in global supply chains and a decrease in disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, domestic demand in the US remains strong, defying the Fed's efforts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that policymakers are likely to maintain interest rates at their current levels during the upcoming meeting. Still, the door is open to future increases if strong growth continues. According to Bloomberg, JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief economist Bruce Kasman remarked, "He may not have a lot of patience if the growth numbers don't cool pretty quickly here." Powell acknowledges that growth is expected to slow in the fourth quarter and into the next year, with economists projecting GDP to expand at an annual rate of just 0.7 per cent in the current quarter. The challenge is that the economy's resilience has taken many, including the Fed, by surprise. Consumer spending experienced a significant boost in the third quarter, driven by solid wage gains and receding inflation. The surge in household wealth, stemming from increases in home and equity prices, likely also played a role in boosting consumption. However, some experts consider this surge to be temporary. Bloomberg cited Yelena Shulyatyeva, a senior US economist at BNP Paribas SA, who said that the boost could be temporary. There are factors that may not repeat in the final quarter of 2023, such as a projected decline in imports and a rise in inventories. Additionally, an upswing in mortgage rates and other headwinds could dampen the economy's performance in the near future. As Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, pointed out, growth may slow to around 1 per cent this quarter, after a strong performance of 3.8 per cent in the third. A more stable unemployment rate would be favourable for the Federal Reserve. (Inputs from Bloomberg) WATCH WION LIVE HERE

Robust US economic growth presents dilemma for Federal Reserve: Report

A new poll by Reuters shows that a large majority of economists said that the United States economy is headed for a short and shallow recession sometime in the coming year. This comes as the country is witnessing soaring inflation, which was at a four-decade high, prompting the Federal Reserve to announce several interest rate hikes since the beginning of this year in a bid to combat it.

What is a recession and a shallow recession?

A recession can occur in varying degrees and leave a significant impact on the economy; typically when an economy faces two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP), it could be said that a country is witnessing a recession. However, there are various additional formulas and complexities surrounding the discussion.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/fueling-recession-fears-the-us-economy-shrank-again-in-second-quarter-501488">Fueling recession fears, the US economy shrank again in second quarter</a>

For example, in the context of the US economy, the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/pandemic-effect-us-economy-set-to-outpace-china-first-time-since-1976-481005">COVID-19-induced recession</a> only lasted for two months, which is one of the shortest cycles on record, after the economic activity plunged in April 2020. Furthermore, the official call that an economy is witnessing a recession is taken by a panel of economists convened by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Among other indicators, the NBER accounts for non-farm payrolls, retail sales and industrial production, however, the private non-profit research group also said that there are “no fixed rules” about measures and indicators that contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in their decisions.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/jeff-bezos-sounds-warning-bell-on-us-economy-as-he-asks-people-to-avoid-going-on-spending-spree-535758">Jeff Bezos sounds warning on US economy, urges people to avoid going on spending spree</a>

The group's definition of a recession is a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” It also believes that the depth, diffusion and duration of this downturn need to be met individually. Additionally, “extreme conditionals revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another,” said the NBER.&nbsp;

Notably, the official call indicating that an economy is witnessing a recession is made at least a year or more after the downturn event has already occurred. Therefore, another approach, more focused on determining the onset of a recession, is the employment-based Sahm rule which says that when the three-month rolling average of the unemployment rate rises half a point from its low, an economy has entered a recession.&nbsp;

ALSO WATCH |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/videos/fitch-inflation-and-fed-hikes-to-drive-us-economy-into-recession-526566">Fitch: Inflation and fed hikes to drive US economy into recession</a>

The rule was created by and named after a former Fed economist Claudia Sahm&nbsp;and used to determine the onset of a recession, which is quicker than official calls. In contrast to the aforementioned example of the COVID-19-induced recession, some other recessions can be deeper and scarring for the economy like the Great Recession or the Depression whose impact was so adverse that it reportedly took a decade or more to revive the labour market.&nbsp;

The speculations of the US economy entering a <a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/us-recession-not-inevitable-economy-on-right-track-yellen-541427">“shallow recession”</a> have been around for quite a few months now, it is where the economic growth contracts only marginally and for a limited time. This comes after consecutive increases in interest rates by the Feds amounting to an overall hike of 375 basis points, since its first one in March, earlier this year which has sparked worries about an impending recession.&nbsp;

Reuters poll: Most economists expect a shallow and short recession

Reuters polled 84 economists between December 2 and 8 who unanimously expect the Feds to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points on December 14&nbsp;as the rate of inflation is running well above the central bank's two per cent target. However, after raising the interest rates by 75 basis points for the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/us-federal-reserve-raises-interest-rate-by-075-again-in-a-bid-to-combat-inflation-530687">fourth consecutive time</a>, the economists believe that it will be a “slightly softer” hike of 4.25 per cent to 4.50 per cent this time around.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/dollar-gains-broadly-as-upbeat-us-data-muddles-fed-rate-hike-views-540382">Dollar gains broadly as upbeat US data muddles Fed rate hike views</a>

Economists who as a group can be slower with their forecast of recessions, as mentioned earlier, have also said that the probability of a recession in the upcoming year or two is at least 70 per cent which is up seven per cent from the last poll, said the report. Furthermore, 35 out of 48 economists said that the recession would be shallow and short, while eight economists said it would be long and shallow and four said there won’t be any recession.&nbsp;

Inflation is expected to stay over the Fed’s target until at least 2026, said the report, and while the<a href="https://www.wionews.com/economy/us-hiring-remains-robust-in-november-adds-263000-new-jobs-despite-soaring-inflation-539572"> labour market remains strong</a>, the bigger risk was that the rates would peak higher and later than expected. While some economists are expecting the fed funds rate to peak early next year at 4.75 per cent to five per cent, at least 24 of the 72 said that they believe it will go higher.&nbsp;

ALSO WATCH |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/videos/us-economy-heading-into-a-shadow-recession-poll-541472">US economy heading into a shallow recession: Poll</a>

This comes amid signs of a slowing economy, particularly the housing market which was the epicentre of the 2008 recession in the US. Reportedly, home sales have decreased for nine months straight. Additionally, 27 of 45 economists who provided quarterly (GDP) forecasts estimate a contraction in economic growth for two consecutive quarters or more in the coming year.&nbsp;

(With inputs from agencies)&nbsp;

A new poll by Reuters shows that a large majority of economists said that the United States economy is headed for a short and shallow recession sometime in the coming year.

A new poll by Reuters shows that a large majority of economists said that the United States economy is headed for a short and shallow recession sometime in the coming year. This comes as the country is witnessing soaring inflation, which was at a four-decade high, prompting the Federal Reserve to announce several interest rate hikes since the beginning of this year in a bid to combat it. What is a recession and a shallow recession? A recession can occur in varying degrees and leave a significant impact on the economy; typically when an economy faces two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP), it could be said that a country is witnessing a recession. However, there are various additional formulas and complexities surrounding the discussion. ALSO READ | Fueling recession fears, the US economy shrank again in second quarter For example, in the context of the US economy, the COVID-19-induced recession only lasted for two months, which is one of the shortest cycles on record, after the economic activity plunged in April 2020. Furthermore, the official call that an economy is witnessing a recession is taken by a panel of economists convened by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Among other indicators, the NBER accounts for non-farm payrolls, retail sales and industrial production, however, the private non-profit research group also said that there are “no fixed rules” about measures and indicators that contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in their decisions. ALSO READ | Jeff Bezos sounds warning on US economy, urges people to avoid going on spending spree The group's definition of a recession is a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” It also believes that the depth, diffusion and duration of this downturn need to be met individually. Additionally, “extreme conditionals revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another,” said the NBER. Notably, the official call indicating that an economy is witnessing a recession is made at least a year or more after the downturn event has already occurred. Therefore, another approach, more focused on determining the onset of a recession, is the employment-based Sahm rule which says that when the three-month rolling average of the unemployment rate rises half a point from its low, an economy has entered a recession. ALSO WATCH | Fitch: Inflation and fed hikes to drive US economy into recession The rule was created by and named after a former Fed economist Claudia Sahm and used to determine the onset of a recession, which is quicker than official calls. In contrast to the aforementioned example of the COVID-19-induced recession, some other recessions can be deeper and scarring for the economy like the Great Recession or the Depression whose impact was so adverse that it reportedly took a decade or more to revive the labour market. The speculations of the US economy entering a “shallow recession” have been around for quite a few months now, it is where the economic growth contracts only marginally and for a limited time. This comes after consecutive increases in interest rates by the Feds amounting to an overall hike of 375 basis points, since its first one in March, earlier this year which has sparked worries about an impending recession. Reuters poll: Most economists expect a shallow and short recession Reuters polled 84 economists between December 2 and 8 who unanimously expect the Feds to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points on December 14 as the rate of inflation is running well above the central bank's two per cent target. However, after raising the interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth consecutive time, the economists believe that it will be a “slightly softer” hike of 4.25 per cent to 4.50 per cent this time around. ALSO READ | Dollar gains broadly as upbeat US data muddles Fed rate hike views Economists who as a group can be slower with their forecast of recessions, as mentioned earlier, have also said that the probability of a recession in the upcoming year or two is at least 70 per cent which is up seven per cent from the last poll, said the report. Furthermore, 35 out of 48 economists said that the recession would be shallow and short, while eight economists said it would be long and shallow and four said there won’t be any recession. Inflation is expected to stay over the Fed’s target until at least 2026, said the report, and while the labour market remains strong, the bigger risk was that the rates would peak higher and later than expected. While some economists are expecting the fed funds rate to peak early next year at 4.75 per cent to five per cent, at least 24 of the 72 said that they believe it will go higher. ALSO WATCH | US economy heading into a shallow recession: Poll This comes amid signs of a slowing economy, particularly the housing market which was the epicentre of the 2008 recession in the US. Reportedly, home sales have decreased for nine months straight. Additionally, 27 of 45 economists who provided quarterly (GDP) forecasts estimate a contraction in economic growth for two consecutive quarters or more in the coming year. (With inputs from agencies)

Poll shows that the US economy is headed for a shallow recession: Here’s what it means

Goldman Sachs cut its U.S. economic growth target to 5.6% for 2021 and to 4% for 2022 citing an expected decline in fiscal support through the end of next year and a more delayed recovery in consumer spending than previously expected.

Goldman cuts growth forecast for 2021, 2022

&nbsp;US job growth likely slowed further in August, but the pace of gains probably remains sufficient to keep the economy expanding moderately amid rising threats from trade tensions and weakness overseas that have left financial markets fearing a recession.

The Labor Department's closely watched monthly employment report on Friday will come in the wake of a survey on Tuesday that showed manufacturing contracting for the first time in three years in August. The economy's waning fortunes, underscored by an inversion of the US Treasury yield curve, have been largely blamed on the White House's year-long trade war with China.

Washington and Beijing slapped fresh tariffs on each other on Sunday. While the two economic giants on Thursday agreed to hold high-level talks in early October in Washington, the uncertainty, which has eroded business confidence, lingers.

The economy is also facing headwinds from Britain's potentially disorderly exit from the European Union, and softening growth in China and the rest of the world.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again this month to keep the longest economic expansion in history, now in its 11th year, on track. The US central bank lowered borrowing costs in July for the first time since 2008.

"The general message from the labour market is that businesses are cutting back on hiring, but they are not laying off workers and that is important," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. "Consumers are what's keeping the economy moving at this point."

Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 158,000 jobs last month after advancing 164,000 in July, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The anticipated job gains would be below the monthly average of 165,000 over the last seven months, but still above the roughly 100,000 per month needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

The unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at 3.7 per cent for a third straight month.

August job growth could, however, fall short of expectations because of a seasonal quirk related to students leaving their summer jobs and returning to school. Over the past several years, the initial August job count has tended to exhibit a weak bias, with revisions subsequently showing strength.

Other factors favouring slower job growth include declines in both the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing and services industries employment measures in August. In addition, global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas reported a 37.7 per cent jump in planned job cuts by U.S-based employers in August.

Bullish consumers

But first-time applications for unemployment benefits, a more timely indicator of labour market health, have been hovering near historically low levels. Consumers were very bullish about the labour market in August and the government likely started recruiting for the 2020 Census last month.

Though the trade impasse does not appear to be spilling over to the labour market, job growth has been slowing since mid-2018.

The government last month estimated that the economy created 501,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March 2019 than previously reported, the biggest downward revision in the level of employment in a decade. That suggests job growth over that period averaged around 170,000 per month instead of 210,000. The revised payrolls data will be published next February.

The government has also trimmed economic growth for the second quarter. The employment report is expected to show average hourly earnings gaining 0.3 per cent last month, matching July's rise. But the annual increase in wages is seen dipping to 3.1 per cent from 3.2 per cent in July as last year's surge falls out of the calculation.

"Recent downward revisions to estimates of economic growth, corporate profits, and employment growth all suggest that the economy is displaying classic late-cycle symptoms," said Michael Feroli, an economist at JP Morgan in New York. "Moreover, these symptoms are unlikely to go away entirely even if a truce is reached in the current trade tensions."

The length of the workweek will also be watched for clues on how soon companies might start laying off workers. The average workweek fell to its lowest level in nearly two years in July as manufacturers and other industries cut hours for workers. It is forecast rising to 34.4 hours in August from 34.3 hours in July.

"While one month does not make a trend, hours worked is a leading indicator worth noting," said Beth Ann Bovino, US chief economist at S&amp;P Global Ratings in New York. "A prolonged drop in hours worked signals that businesses may reduce hiring, with layoffs and cutbacks in private spending to likely follow."

Manufacturing employment is expected to have risen by 8,000 jobs last month after increasing 16,000 in July. But factory payrolls could surprise on the downside after the ISM reported on Tuesday that its gauge of factory employment dropped in August to its lowest level since March 2016.

Manufacturing has ironically borne the brunt of the Trump administration's trade war, which the White House has argued is intended to boost the sector. Factories cut overtime for workers in July.

Government employment could get a lift from hiring for the 2020 decennial census, which could create roughly 40,000 temporary jobs.

US job growth likely slowed further in August, but the pace of gains probably remains sufficient to keep the economy expanding moderately amid rising threats from trade tensions and weakness overseas that have left financial markets fearing a recession.

US job growth likely slowed further in August, but the pace of gains probably remains sufficient to keep the economy expanding moderately amid rising threats from trade tensions and weakness overseas that have left financial markets fearing a recession. The Labor Department's closely watched monthly employment report on Friday will come in the wake of a survey on Tuesday that showed manufacturing contracting for the first time in three years in August. The economy's waning fortunes, underscored by an inversion of the US Treasury yield curve, have been largely blamed on the White House's year-long trade war with China. Washington and Beijing slapped fresh tariffs on each other on Sunday. While the two economic giants on Thursday agreed to hold high-level talks in early October in Washington, the uncertainty, which has eroded business confidence, lingers. The economy is also facing headwinds from Britain's potentially disorderly exit from the European Union, and softening growth in China and the rest of the world. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again this month to keep the longest economic expansion in history, now in its 11th year, on track. The US central bank lowered borrowing costs in July for the first time since 2008. "The general message from the labour market is that businesses are cutting back on hiring, but they are not laying off workers and that is important," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. "Consumers are what's keeping the economy moving at this point." Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 158,000 jobs last month after advancing 164,000 in July, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The anticipated job gains would be below the monthly average of 165,000 over the last seven months, but still above the roughly 100,000 per month needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population. The unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at 3.7 per cent for a third straight month. August job growth could, however, fall short of expectations because of a seasonal quirk related to students leaving their summer jobs and returning to school. Over the past several years, the initial August job count has tended to exhibit a weak bias, with revisions subsequently showing strength. Other factors favouring slower job growth include declines in both the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing and services industries employment measures in August. In addition, global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported a 37.7 per cent jump in planned job cuts by U.S-based employers in August. Bullish consumers But first-time applications for unemployment benefits, a more timely indicator of labour market health, have been hovering near historically low levels. Consumers were very bullish about the labour market in August and the government likely started recruiting for the 2020 Census last month. Though the trade impasse does not appear to be spilling over to the labour market, job growth has been slowing since mid-2018. The government last month estimated that the economy created 501,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March 2019 than previously reported, the biggest downward revision in the level of employment in a decade. That suggests job growth over that period averaged around 170,000 per month instead of 210,000. The revised payrolls data will be published next February. The government has also trimmed economic growth for the second quarter. The employment report is expected to show average hourly earnings gaining 0.3 per cent last month, matching July's rise. But the annual increase in wages is seen dipping to 3.1 per cent from 3.2 per cent in July as last year's surge falls out of the calculation. "Recent downward revisions to estimates of economic growth, corporate profits, and employment growth all suggest that the economy is displaying classic late-cycle symptoms," said Michael Feroli, an economist at JP Morgan in New York. "Moreover, these symptoms are unlikely to go away entirely even if a truce is reached in the current trade tensions." The length of the workweek will also be watched for clues on how soon companies might start laying off workers. The average workweek fell to its lowest level in nearly two years in July as manufacturers and other industries cut hours for workers. It is forecast rising to 34.4 hours in August from 34.3 hours in July. "While one month does not make a trend, hours worked is a leading indicator worth noting," said Beth Ann Bovino, US chief economist at S&P Global Ratings in New York. "A prolonged drop in hours worked signals that businesses may reduce hiring, with layoffs and cutbacks in private spending to likely follow." Manufacturing employment is expected to have risen by 8,000 jobs last month after increasing 16,000 in July. But factory payrolls could surprise on the downside after the ISM reported on Tuesday that its gauge of factory employment dropped in August to its lowest level since March 2016. Manufacturing has ironically borne the brunt of the Trump administration's trade war, which the White House has argued is intended to boost the sector. Factories cut overtime for workers in July. Government employment could get a lift from hiring for the 2020 decennial census, which could create roughly 40,000 temporary jobs.

Slower US job growth expected, but enough to support economy

The US economy likely grew at its slowest pace in more than two years in the second quarter as an acceleration in consumer spending was probably offset by weak exports and business investment.

The anticipated moderation in growth will come against the backdrop of rising risks to the economy's outlook, especially from a trade war between the United States and China as well as slowing growth overseas, which are seen encouraging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next Wednesday for the first time in a decade.

With a strong labour market supporting consumer spending, a recession is, however, not on the horizon. The Commerce Department will publish the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report on Friday at 8:30 am EDT (1230 GMT).

"The slowing in the economy spooked the Fed and markets, but the sky is not falling," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. "If we do get a recession next year it would be because we shot ourselves in the foot with the trade tensions."

Gross domestic product probably increased at a 1.8% annualized rate in the second quarter, also because of a smaller inventory build, according to a Reuters survey of economists, after surging at a 3.1% pace in the January-March period.

But with the volatile exports and inventory categories accounting for much of the expected step-down in GDP, the slowest growth pace since the first quarter of 2017 will likely mask some underlying strength in the 10-year economic expansion, the longest in history.

The survey was completed before the release of June wholesale and retail inventories as well as durable goods and goods trade deficit data, which led the Atlanta Fed to cut its forecast by three-tenths of a percentage point to a 1.3% rate.

The economy is slowing largely as the stimulus from the White House's $1.5 trillion tax cut package fades. The tax cuts together with more government spending and deregulation were part of measures adopted by the Trump administration to boost annual economic growth to 3.0% on a sustained basis.

The economy grew 2.9% in 2018 and growth this year is expected to be around 2.5%. Economists estimate the speed at which the economy can grow over a long period without igniting inflation at between 1.7% and 2.0%.

"As the benefits of fiscal stimulus fade and trade policy uncertainty and slowing global demand remain headwinds to business investment, US GDP growth should moderate," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The GDP report is also expected to show a pickup in inflation last quarter, but the overall trend likely remained benign. The government will also publish revisions to GDP data from 2014 through the first quarter of 2019.

Strong consumer spending

Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to have surged after slowing to a 0.9% rate in the first quarter, the weakest in a year. Some of the slowdown in consumer spending early in the year was blamed on a 35-day partial shutdown of the government. Spending is being supported by the lowest unemployment rate in nearly 50 years, which is lifting wages.

The jump in consumer spending was, however, likely blunted by a sharp drop in exports, in a reversal of the strong growth experienced in the first quarter. Weak exports are expected to have resulted in the deterioration of the trade deficit in the second quarter. Trade is believed to have subtracted from GDP growth last quarter after contributing 0.94 percentage point in the January-March period.

The acceleration in consumer spending likely helped businesses to whittle down an inventory overhang, resulting in a smaller inventory build. While that probably weighed on GDP growth in the second quarter, it is a potential boost to manufacturing. Businesses have been placing fewer orders with factories while working through stockpiles of unsold goods, which contributed to undercutting manufacturing production.

Business investment was probably weak in the second quarter, with spending on equipment expected to have contracted again after declining at its steepest pace in three years in the January-March period.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell early this month flagged business investment as one area of weakness in the economy, noting it had "slowed notably," and that this might "reflect concerns about trade tensions and slower growth in the global economy."

Design problems at aerospace giant Boeing have hurt business investment, with some spillover to exports.

Boeing reported its biggest-ever quarterly loss on Wednesday due to the spiraling cost of resolving issues with its 737 MAX airplane and warned it might have to shut production of the grounded jet completely if it runs into new hurdles with global regulators to getting its best-selling aircraft back in the air.

The plane was grounded worldwide in March after two fatal crashes in Ethiopia and Indonesia. Production of the aircraft has been reduced and deliveries suspended. Economists estimate the 737 MAX troubles cut at least two-tenths of a percentage point from GDP growth in the second quarter.

"There could be more noticeable effects on various growth components, with weakness in related equipment spending and exports and a partially offsetting increase in inventories," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

Business spending on structures, which include oil and gas well drilling, is expected to have declined last quarter. Spending on intellectual products, including research and development, likely increased.

Strong growth in government investment is expected, but spending on homebuilding likely contracted for a sixth straight quarter.

The US economy likely grew at its slowest pace in more than two years in the second quarter as an acceleration in consumer spending was probably offset by weak exports and business investment.

The US economy likely grew at its slowest pace in more than two years in the second quarter as an acceleration in consumer spending was probably offset by weak exports and business investment. The anticipated moderation in growth will come against the backdrop of rising risks to the economy's outlook, especially from a trade war between the United States and China as well as slowing growth overseas, which are seen encouraging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next Wednesday for the first time in a decade. With a strong labour market supporting consumer spending, a recession is, however, not on the horizon. The Commerce Department will publish the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report on Friday at 8:30 am EDT (1230 GMT). "The slowing in the economy spooked the Fed and markets, but the sky is not falling," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. "If we do get a recession next year it would be because we shot ourselves in the foot with the trade tensions." Gross domestic product probably increased at a 1.8% annualized rate in the second quarter, also because of a smaller inventory build, according to a Reuters survey of economists, after surging at a 3.1% pace in the January-March period. But with the volatile exports and inventory categories accounting for much of the expected step-down in GDP, the slowest growth pace since the first quarter of 2017 will likely mask some underlying strength in the 10-year economic expansion, the longest in history. The survey was completed before the release of June wholesale and retail inventories as well as durable goods and goods trade deficit data, which led the Atlanta Fed to cut its forecast by three-tenths of a percentage point to a 1.3% rate. The economy is slowing largely as the stimulus from the White House's $1.5 trillion tax cut package fades. The tax cuts together with more government spending and deregulation were part of measures adopted by the Trump administration to boost annual economic growth to 3.0% on a sustained basis. The economy grew 2.9% in 2018 and growth this year is expected to be around 2.5%. Economists estimate the speed at which the economy can grow over a long period without igniting inflation at between 1.7% and 2.0%. "As the benefits of fiscal stimulus fade and trade policy uncertainty and slowing global demand remain headwinds to business investment, US GDP growth should moderate," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. The GDP report is also expected to show a pickup in inflation last quarter, but the overall trend likely remained benign. The government will also publish revisions to GDP data from 2014 through the first quarter of 2019. Strong consumer spending Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to have surged after slowing to a 0.9% rate in the first quarter, the weakest in a year. Some of the slowdown in consumer spending early in the year was blamed on a 35-day partial shutdown of the government. Spending is being supported by the lowest unemployment rate in nearly 50 years, which is lifting wages. The jump in consumer spending was, however, likely blunted by a sharp drop in exports, in a reversal of the strong growth experienced in the first quarter. Weak exports are expected to have resulted in the deterioration of the trade deficit in the second quarter. Trade is believed to have subtracted from GDP growth last quarter after contributing 0.94 percentage point in the January-March period. The acceleration in consumer spending likely helped businesses to whittle down an inventory overhang, resulting in a smaller inventory build. While that probably weighed on GDP growth in the second quarter, it is a potential boost to manufacturing. Businesses have been placing fewer orders with factories while working through stockpiles of unsold goods, which contributed to undercutting manufacturing production. Business investment was probably weak in the second quarter, with spending on equipment expected to have contracted again after declining at its steepest pace in three years in the January-March period. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell early this month flagged business investment as one area of weakness in the economy, noting it had "slowed notably," and that this might "reflect concerns about trade tensions and slower growth in the global economy." Design problems at aerospace giant Boeing have hurt business investment, with some spillover to exports. Boeing reported its biggest-ever quarterly loss on Wednesday due to the spiraling cost of resolving issues with its 737 MAX airplane and warned it might have to shut production of the grounded jet completely if it runs into new hurdles with global regulators to getting its best-selling aircraft back in the air. The plane was grounded worldwide in March after two fatal crashes in Ethiopia and Indonesia. Production of the aircraft has been reduced and deliveries suspended. Economists estimate the 737 MAX troubles cut at least two-tenths of a percentage point from GDP growth in the second quarter. "There could be more noticeable effects on various growth components, with weakness in related equipment spending and exports and a partially offsetting increase in inventories," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York. Business spending on structures, which include oil and gas well drilling, is expected to have declined last quarter. Spending on intellectual products, including research and development, likely increased. Strong growth in government investment is expected, but spending on homebuilding likely contracted for a sixth straight quarter.