US-China trade talks have been "very difficult and taxing" and negotiators still have "lots left to do", but breakthroughs have been made in some areas, China's commerce minister said Tuesday.

The comments as President Donald Trump has voiced confidence that he could soon sign a deal with President Xi Jinping to end a trade war that led to bruising tit-for-tat tariffs on goods from each country.

Recounting top economic official Liu He's recent trip to Washington for trade talks, commerce minister Zhong Shan said the "negotiation process was very difficult and taxing".

The content under discussion was very hard, Zhong stressed, "requiring our team to work overtime, day and night".

"Two days of negotiations had been agreed to, and then two days were added, and this was still very tense," Zhong told reporters on the sidelines of the opening session of the National People's Congress.

"The bilateral talks have been highly effective -- through 90 days of talks the two sides have achieved step by step, important results and breakthroughs in some areas," he said.

"Right now both teams are still negotiating because there is still lots left to do," Zhong said.

To reach an agreement "both sides need to walk towards each other and work hard together", he said.

The head of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said substantial breakthroughs had been reached in six areas, including technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, agricultural, services and exchange rates, according to local news site The Paper.&nbsp;

"This progress is substantial. I think it will be further expanded. There is no doubt about it," banking regulator Guo Shuqing said, according to The Paper.

Trump has for years railed against China's unfair trade practices, singling his ire on what he calls deliberate devaluation of its currency, the renminbi, also called the yuan.

"Some officials of the US government, including President Trump, accuse China of manipulating the exchange rate and promoting the devaluation of the renminbi to gain a competitive advantage," said Guo.

"There is no such thing, and everyone knows this," Guo said, adding it would be easier to reach a consensus on the exchange rate in future negotiations.

"It is certain that in the opening of the financial sector, China and the US are fully capable of reaching an agreement," he said.

US-China trade talks have been "very difficult and taxing" and negotiators still have "lots left to do", but breakthroughs have been made in some areas, China's commerce minister said Tuesday.

US-China trade talks have been "very difficult and taxing" and negotiators still have "lots left to do", but breakthroughs have been made in some areas, China's commerce minister said Tuesday. The comments as President Donald Trump has voiced confidence that he could soon sign a deal with President Xi Jinping to end a trade war that led to bruising tit-for-tat tariffs on goods from each country. Recounting top economic official Liu He's recent trip to Washington for trade talks, commerce minister Zhong Shan said the "negotiation process was very difficult and taxing". The content under discussion was very hard, Zhong stressed, "requiring our team to work overtime, day and night". "Two days of negotiations had been agreed to, and then two days were added, and this was still very tense," Zhong told reporters on the sidelines of the opening session of the National People's Congress. "The bilateral talks have been highly effective -- through 90 days of talks the two sides have achieved step by step, important results and breakthroughs in some areas," he said. "Right now both teams are still negotiating because there is still lots left to do," Zhong said. To reach an agreement "both sides need to walk towards each other and work hard together", he said. The head of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said substantial breakthroughs had been reached in six areas, including technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, agricultural, services and exchange rates, according to local news site The Paper. "This progress is substantial. I think it will be further expanded. There is no doubt about it," banking regulator Guo Shuqing said, according to The Paper. Trump has for years railed against China's unfair trade practices, singling his ire on what he calls deliberate devaluation of its currency, the renminbi, also called the yuan. "Some officials of the US government, including President Trump, accuse China of manipulating the exchange rate and promoting the devaluation of the renminbi to gain a competitive advantage," said Guo. "There is no such thing, and everyone knows this," Guo said, adding it would be easier to reach a consensus on the exchange rate in future negotiations. "It is certain that in the opening of the financial sector, China and the US are fully capable of reaching an agreement," he said.

Teams are still negotiating because there is still lots left to do in US trade talks: China

By James L Anderson

The original March 1 deadline has passed as the United States and China hash out a trade deal amid deadlocked negotiations.

Any US-China trade deal likely falls short compared to what the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could have been.

Within current talks, Donald Trump’s administration is focused on greater access to subsidised Chinese industries and addressing intellectual property theft linked to alleged forced technology transfers to China. All of this has an impact on America’s economic competitiveness in the short term.

But is the US adequately managing long-term Chinese efforts to don the mantle of global leader?

On the third day of his administration in 2017, Trump honoured a campaign promise by withdrawing from the contentious TPP. The historic 12-nation agreement was on track to cover roughly 40 per cent of the global economy.

Democrats and some Republicans in Congress, advocacy groups and some members of the American public flatly opposed the agreement. Concerns about the oversized influence of multinational corporations and the controversial investor-state dispute process was a feature of the public discourse.

Lost opportunity to rein in China?

But America may have missed a window of opportunity to curb China’s rise when it pulled out of the TPP.

Scholars Graham Allison and Kori Schake have grappled over if and how China can replace America as the world’s ranking power. Allison’s recent work, Destined for War, discusses the “windows of opportunity” the US can exploit to slow the pace of the rising power.

If history is any credible guide, the transition from Pax Britannica to Pax Americana may help US policy-makers and the public alike to understand the imperatives that surround China’s rise.

At the turn of the 20th century, America had unprecedented growth, thanks to Alfred Thayer Mahan’s vision of American sea power. And in the early years between the two World Wars, the United States, Great Britain and Japan headlined a global naval arms race.

In 1921, President Warren Harding held the Washington Naval Conference to disarm tensions among the competing navies in the Pacific. The naval powers agreed to discontinue their shipbuilding programmes and capped their naval fleets in the region. America also protected holdings in East Asia from the threat of a rising Japan.

The agreement was a triumph for America. But for Britain, their naval power was now at “eye level” with the United States.

The UK could not challenge the US

An overstretched Britain had neither the political will nor the financial ability to oppose America’s demands, aware that an arms race with the U.S. would likely bankrupt the British economy.

Pax Britannica, a symbol of Britain’s naval dominance, was forced to deliberately accommodate America’s rise. Britain’s reduced Pacific fleet and degraded Anglo-Japanese relations marked a turning point in America’s ascendancy.

It was not the first time Britain missed an opportunity to slow America’s rise. The American Civil War offered the chance, but Britain decided against joining on behalf of the Confederacy due to the issue of slavery. Schake also notes the Venezuela crisis of 1895 marked an early turning point in the leadership transition. This could have also been a window of opportunity.

How does this apply to current US-China relations? The “battleground” remains the same as in 1921; instead, China plans to supplant America to become the global leader.

Barack Obama’s administration crafted the TPP as a geopolitical instrument to halt China’s plans. It presented east and southeast Asian nations with an alternative to China’s coercive diplomacy in the region, such as in the case of Sri Lanka.

Reducing trade barriers had the potential to provide America with greater investment opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region. It could have weakened China’s diplomatic clout while also creating economic incentives for American investment in the area. It exploited a window of opportunity that targeted the source of China’s rise — its economy.

Pulling out of the TPP was not solely a product of the current administration —a Hillary Clinton administration may have withdrawn too. America’s anti-free trade mood reflects the priority of the public and lawmakers, which is to preserve US jobs and sovereignty.

Shifts in global power are afoot

But shifts in global power may be underway with implications beyond what happens on the home front. A tech Cold War is brewing, China’s plans for expansion under the Belt and Road initiative continue and South China Sea claims are an extension of China’s sovereignty.

The rebooted TPP, the 11-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is likely to reduce barriers to trade and increase investment opportunities across Asia and Latin America for its member countries, including Canada.

But the agreement, without US representation, hardly lives up to America’s once-desired aim to create a trade zone in a large swath of East Asia that would isolate China while addressing the global power shifts underway. A renegotiated CPTPP, with American backing, may have even strengthened the Trump administration’s position in its current trade negotiations with the Chinese.

The UK was unable to prevent the last global leadership transition due to missed windows of opportunity and deliberate accommodation. An America that views China’s rise through a short-term bilateral lens runs the risk of accidentally accommodating Chinese efforts to replace America.

Taking advantage of a window of opportunity may be key to curbing the next global leadership transition —and the CPTPP may be the window that America needs before we are forced to accommodate to China’s interests. The US should reconsider joining the pact if it wants any shot at slowing China’s rise.

(James L Anderson is Visiting Fulbright Fellow at Centre for International and Defence Policy, Queen's University, Ontario)

(This article was originally published on the Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-u-s-china-trade-deal-does-not-slow-chinas-rise-111971">original article)</a>

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

By James L Anderson The original March 1 deadline has passed as the United States and China hash out a trade deal amid deadlocked negotiations. Any US-China trade deal likely falls short compared to what the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could have been.

By James L Anderson The original March 1 deadline has passed as the United States and China hash out a trade deal amid deadlocked negotiations. Any US-China trade deal likely falls short compared to what the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could have been. Within current talks, Donald Trump’s administration is focused on greater access to subsidised Chinese industries and addressing intellectual property theft linked to alleged forced technology transfers to China. All of this has an impact on America’s economic competitiveness in the short term. But is the US adequately managing long-term Chinese efforts to don the mantle of global leader? On the third day of his administration in 2017, Trump honoured a campaign promise by withdrawing from the contentious TPP. The historic 12-nation agreement was on track to cover roughly 40 per cent of the global economy. Democrats and some Republicans in Congress, advocacy groups and some members of the American public flatly opposed the agreement. Concerns about the oversized influence of multinational corporations and the controversial investor-state dispute process was a feature of the public discourse. Lost opportunity to rein in China? But America may have missed a window of opportunity to curb China’s rise when it pulled out of the TPP. Scholars Graham Allison and Kori Schake have grappled over if and how China can replace America as the world’s ranking power. Allison’s recent work, Destined for War, discusses the “windows of opportunity” the US can exploit to slow the pace of the rising power. If history is any credible guide, the transition from Pax Britannica to Pax Americana may help US policy-makers and the public alike to understand the imperatives that surround China’s rise. At the turn of the 20th century, America had unprecedented growth, thanks to Alfred Thayer Mahan’s vision of American sea power. And in the early years between the two World Wars, the United States, Great Britain and Japan headlined a global naval arms race. In 1921, President Warren Harding held the Washington Naval Conference to disarm tensions among the competing navies in the Pacific. The naval powers agreed to discontinue their shipbuilding programmes and capped their naval fleets in the region. America also protected holdings in East Asia from the threat of a rising Japan. The agreement was a triumph for America. But for Britain, their naval power was now at “eye level” with the United States. The UK could not challenge the US An overstretched Britain had neither the political will nor the financial ability to oppose America’s demands, aware that an arms race with the U.S. would likely bankrupt the British economy. Pax Britannica, a symbol of Britain’s naval dominance, was forced to deliberately accommodate America’s rise. Britain’s reduced Pacific fleet and degraded Anglo-Japanese relations marked a turning point in America’s ascendancy. It was not the first time Britain missed an opportunity to slow America’s rise. The American Civil War offered the chance, but Britain decided against joining on behalf of the Confederacy due to the issue of slavery. Schake also notes the Venezuela crisis of 1895 marked an early turning point in the leadership transition. This could have also been a window of opportunity. How does this apply to current US-China relations? The “battleground” remains the same as in 1921; instead, China plans to supplant America to become the global leader. Barack Obama’s administration crafted the TPP as a geopolitical instrument to halt China’s plans. It presented east and southeast Asian nations with an alternative to China’s coercive diplomacy in the region, such as in the case of Sri Lanka. Reducing trade barriers had the potential to provide America with greater investment opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region. It could have weakened China’s diplomatic clout while also creating economic incentives for American investment in the area. It exploited a window of opportunity that targeted the source of China’s rise — its economy. Pulling out of the TPP was not solely a product of the current administration —a Hillary Clinton administration may have withdrawn too. America’s anti-free trade mood reflects the priority of the public and lawmakers, which is to preserve US jobs and sovereignty. Shifts in global power are afoot But shifts in global power may be underway with implications beyond what happens on the home front. A tech Cold War is brewing, China’s plans for expansion under the Belt and Road initiative continue and South China Sea claims are an extension of China’s sovereignty. The rebooted TPP, the 11-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is likely to reduce barriers to trade and increase investment opportunities across Asia and Latin America for its member countries, including Canada. But the agreement, without US representation, hardly lives up to America’s once-desired aim to create a trade zone in a large swath of East Asia that would isolate China while addressing the global power shifts underway. A renegotiated CPTPP, with American backing, may have even strengthened the Trump administration’s position in its current trade negotiations with the Chinese. The UK was unable to prevent the last global leadership transition due to missed windows of opportunity and deliberate accommodation. An America that views China’s rise through a short-term bilateral lens runs the risk of accidentally accommodating Chinese efforts to replace America. Taking advantage of a window of opportunity may be key to curbing the next global leadership transition —and the CPTPP may be the window that America needs before we are forced to accommodate to China’s interests. The US should reconsider joining the pact if it wants any shot at slowing China’s rise. (James L Anderson is Visiting Fulbright Fellow at Centre for International and Defence Policy, Queen's University, Ontario) (This article was originally published on the Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

A US-China trade deal does not slow China’s rise

US President Donald Trump on Friday urged China to abolish tariffs on agricultural products imported from the United States -- adding that trade talks between the rival powers were going well.

"I have asked China to immediately remove all Tariffs on our agricultural products (including beef, pork, etc.)," the president wrote on Twitter.

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
I have asked China to immediately remove all Tariffs on our agricultural products (including beef, pork, etc.) based on the fact that we are moving along nicely with Trade discussions....
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1101620175638614016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 1, 2019</a></blockquote>
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He said his request was based on the fact that negotiations with China were "moving along nicely" -- and his delay last week of a planned tariff increase on Chinese exports.

"This is very important for our great farmers - and me!" he added.

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
....and I did not increase their second traunch of Tariffs to 25% on March 1st. This is very important for our great farmers - and me!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1101620176947236866?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 1, 2019</a></blockquote>
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After months of a trade war, the US and China agreed to a 90-day truce to work out their differences. It was scheduled to end Friday, but Trump eventually lifted the ultimatum to increase tariffs, satisfied by the progress made in several rounds of talks in Beijing and Washington.

Top White House economic official Larry Kudlow said Thursday the two countries were on the brink of a "historic" trade agreement. A meeting between Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, is also expected this month.

After the latest round of talks in February, US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue tweeted that China had committed to buying "an additional" 10 million metric tons of soybeans as a "show of good faith."

US farmers rely greatly on such trade with China: in 2017, around a third of US soybean production -- worth $14 billion -- was exported there, where it is used to feed pigs.&nbsp;

Those exports plummeted last summer when China imposed tariffs on US soybeans and other agricultural products.

Previously, in a gesture of goodwill at the start of the countries' truce, China in December resumed soybean purchases.

But Chinese tariffs had already hit America's farming regions hard -- areas where Trump has enjoyed plentiful support.

US President Donald Trump on Friday urged China to abolish tariffs on agricultural products imported from the United States -- adding that trade talks between the rival powers were going well.

US President Donald Trump on Friday urged China to abolish tariffs on agricultural products imported from the United States -- adding that trade talks between the rival powers were going well. "I have asked China to immediately remove all Tariffs on our agricultural products (including beef, pork, etc.)," the president wrote on Twitter. I have asked China to immediately remove all Tariffs on our agricultural products (including beef, pork, etc.) based on the fact that we are moving along nicely with Trade discussions.... — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 1, 2019 × He said his request was based on the fact that negotiations with China were "moving along nicely" -- and his delay last week of a planned tariff increase on Chinese exports. "This is very important for our great farmers - and me!" he added. ....and I did not increase their second traunch of Tariffs to 25% on March 1st. This is very important for our great farmers - and me! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 1, 2019 × After months of a trade war, the US and China agreed to a 90-day truce to work out their differences. It was scheduled to end Friday, but Trump eventually lifted the ultimatum to increase tariffs, satisfied by the progress made in several rounds of talks in Beijing and Washington. Top White House economic official Larry Kudlow said Thursday the two countries were on the brink of a "historic" trade agreement. A meeting between Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, is also expected this month. After the latest round of talks in February, US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue tweeted that China had committed to buying "an additional" 10 million metric tons of soybeans as a "show of good faith." US farmers rely greatly on such trade with China: in 2017, around a third of US soybean production -- worth $14 billion -- was exported there, where it is used to feed pigs. Those exports plummeted last summer when China imposed tariffs on US soybeans and other agricultural products. Previously, in a gesture of goodwill at the start of the countries' truce, China in December resumed soybean purchases. But Chinese tariffs had already hit America's farming regions hard -- areas where Trump has enjoyed plentiful support.

Trump urges China to remove tariffs on US agricultural products

By Amitrajeet A Batabyal

Talks between the US and China to end the trade war appear to be in trouble with the March 2 deadline for a deal fast approaching.

In the ongoing trade talks between the US and China, a lack of trust – key to any successful negotiation – appears to be hobbling the ability to reach a deal. Hence it is not clear negotiators will be able to achieve anything substantive before they hit President Donald Trump’s deadline, triggering automatic tariff hikes if there’s no agreement.

As a trade economist, I believe the answer to the trust conundrum lies in learning from an international body the president disdains: the World Trade Organisation.

Empty words? 
 
From the American perspective, a key issue is that in the past the Chinese have made all sorts of promises to address US&nbsp;concerns that they later reneged on. Or, China has taken so long to act that when it finally did it made little difference.

Several examples of Chinese promises going unkept readily come to mind.

When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, it was given “developing country” status. This allowed China to levy high tariffs on imports from the US&nbsp;and Europe even as it benefited from low duties on its exports.

The understanding at that time was that as its economy grew, China would gradually adopt market-based economic principles and commit itself to the basic tenets of liberalised trade and globalisation. But this has not happened.

Sometime after China joined the WTO, the country imposed a 21 per cent to 30 per cent tariff on cars. It was only this past December, and under pressure because of the current trade talks, that the Chinese finally agreed to temporarily reduce the tariff to 15 per cent. In contrast, the corresponding US tariff on Chinese auto imports has long been 2.5 per cent.

More generally, also after becoming a WTO member, China promised to open up its banking, telecommunications and electronic payment processing sectors. But action in these areas has either been non-existent or half-hearted.

Even now, the Chinese telecommunications industry remains very much under government control, and the government has effectively precluded Facebook and Google from offering their services in China.

Concerns about the reliability of the Chinese are not limited to economic and technological matters. To see this, note that on a state visit to the US in 2015, President Xi Jinping promised not to militarize the artificial islands on disputed reefs that the Chinese were building in the South China Sea.

However, we now have clear evidence that he has done exactly what he promised he would not do.

Holding China’s feet to the fire

Given all this, I believe it would be rather naïve on the part of the US to agree to any Chinese promises in the current trade talks without also building a robust enforcement mechanism into any deal.

Indeed, the negotiators themselves seem to understand this, but difficulty finding a way to enforce any agreements – both past and present – is making it harder to come to a deal. And that’s where the WTO and its enforcement mechanisms come in.

For example, China agreed to just such a mechanism with its WTO ascension. This enforcement rule permitted a nation to automatically levy tariffs on certain Chinese goods and services if that country’s domestic market was hurt by those same exports. Unfortunately, like most WTO rules, this rule had a finite life and was allowed to lapse at the end in 2013. Even though this mechanism has been infrequently used, President Barack Obama took advantage of it with some success in 2009 to impose tariffs on Chinese-made tires that were harming US manufacturers.

If such an enforcement mechanism can be built into a trade deal, then the US would not have to plead its case before some international body before it retaliated against the Chinese. Instead, when confronted with one or more broken promises, it would have the legal right to act unilaterally to hold China accountable.

That said, since the current negotiations are between two sovereign nations, the key is to devise an enforcement mechanism that is agreeable to both the US and China. Only then will a resulting trade deal be self-enforcing.

Since the US and China are both members of the WTO, another but less potent enforcement mechanism would lie in utilising its dispute settlement mechanism to address any disagreements that may arise after a deal is reached. The US has had success in the past in using this WTO mechanism as well to hold China accountable.

A deal worth the paper it’s printed on

The venerable Chinese sage Sun Tzu once said that “in the midst of chaos, there is also the opportunity.”

The US now has an opportunity to conclude a meaningful trade deal with China that also has enforcement built into it. Therefore, the American negotiators ought to seize this opportunity and ensure a deal isn’t backed primarily by Chinese promises.

Otherwise, it won’t be the last time a US president fumes about unfair Chinese trading practices.

(By Amitrajeet A Batabyal is Arthur J. Gosnell Professor of Economics, Rochester Institute of Technology)

(This article was originally published on the Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-china-trade-talks-will-the-chinese-keep-promises-to-stop-bad-behavior-111900">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

 
&nbsp;

By Amitrajeet A Batabyal Talks between the US and China to end the trade war appear to be in trouble with the March 2 deadline for a deal fast approaching. In the ongoing trade talks between the US and China, a lack of trust – key to any successful negotiation – appears to be hobbling the ability to reach a deal.

By Amitrajeet A Batabyal Talks between the US and China to end the trade war appear to be in trouble with the March 2 deadline for a deal fast approaching. In the ongoing trade talks between the US and China, a lack of trust – key to any successful negotiation – appears to be hobbling the ability to reach a deal. Hence it is not clear negotiators will be able to achieve anything substantive before they hit President Donald Trump’s deadline, triggering automatic tariff hikes if there’s no agreement. As a trade economist, I believe the answer to the trust conundrum lies in learning from an international body the president disdains: the World Trade Organisation. Empty words? From the American perspective, a key issue is that in the past the Chinese have made all sorts of promises to address US concerns that they later reneged on. Or, China has taken so long to act that when it finally did it made little difference. Several examples of Chinese promises going unkept readily come to mind. When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, it was given “developing country” status. This allowed China to levy high tariffs on imports from the US and Europe even as it benefited from low duties on its exports. The understanding at that time was that as its economy grew, China would gradually adopt market-based economic principles and commit itself to the basic tenets of liberalised trade and globalisation. But this has not happened. Sometime after China joined the WTO, the country imposed a 21 per cent to 30 per cent tariff on cars. It was only this past December, and under pressure because of the current trade talks, that the Chinese finally agreed to temporarily reduce the tariff to 15 per cent. In contrast, the corresponding US tariff on Chinese auto imports has long been 2.5 per cent. More generally, also after becoming a WTO member, China promised to open up its banking, telecommunications and electronic payment processing sectors. But action in these areas has either been non-existent or half-hearted. Even now, the Chinese telecommunications industry remains very much under government control, and the government has effectively precluded Facebook and Google from offering their services in China. Concerns about the reliability of the Chinese are not limited to economic and technological matters. To see this, note that on a state visit to the US in 2015, President Xi Jinping promised not to militarize the artificial islands on disputed reefs that the Chinese were building in the South China Sea. However, we now have clear evidence that he has done exactly what he promised he would not do. Holding China’s feet to the fire Given all this, I believe it would be rather naïve on the part of the US to agree to any Chinese promises in the current trade talks without also building a robust enforcement mechanism into any deal. Indeed, the negotiators themselves seem to understand this, but difficulty finding a way to enforce any agreements – both past and present – is making it harder to come to a deal. And that’s where the WTO and its enforcement mechanisms come in. For example, China agreed to just such a mechanism with its WTO ascension. This enforcement rule permitted a nation to automatically levy tariffs on certain Chinese goods and services if that country’s domestic market was hurt by those same exports. Unfortunately, like most WTO rules, this rule had a finite life and was allowed to lapse at the end in 2013. Even though this mechanism has been infrequently used, President Barack Obama took advantage of it with some success in 2009 to impose tariffs on Chinese-made tires that were harming US manufacturers. If such an enforcement mechanism can be built into a trade deal, then the US would not have to plead its case before some international body before it retaliated against the Chinese. Instead, when confronted with one or more broken promises, it would have the legal right to act unilaterally to hold China accountable. That said, since the current negotiations are between two sovereign nations, the key is to devise an enforcement mechanism that is agreeable to both the US and China. Only then will a resulting trade deal be self-enforcing. Since the US and China are both members of the WTO, another but less potent enforcement mechanism would lie in utilising its dispute settlement mechanism to address any disagreements that may arise after a deal is reached. The US has had success in the past in using this WTO mechanism as well to hold China accountable. A deal worth the paper it’s printed on The venerable Chinese sage Sun Tzu once said that “in the midst of chaos, there is also the opportunity.” The US now has an opportunity to conclude a meaningful trade deal with China that also has enforcement built into it. Therefore, the American negotiators ought to seize this opportunity and ensure a deal isn’t backed primarily by Chinese promises. Otherwise, it won’t be the last time a US president fumes about unfair Chinese trading practices. (By Amitrajeet A Batabyal is Arthur J. Gosnell Professor of Economics, Rochester Institute of Technology) (This article was originally published on the Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

US-China trade conflict: Lack of trust hobbling the ability to reach a deal

One of <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/if-huawei-is-co-located-with-american-systems-it-would-be-difficult-for-us-to-partner-pompeo-to-hungary-196791">Huawei</a>'s three rotating chairmen accused the United States of creating a geopolitical campaign against the <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/china-calls-us-concerns-over-huawei-groundless-196926">Chinese company</a> to persuade other countries not to use its products, the official daily China Daily reported Friday.

Xu Zhijun criticized the US at a press conference in Shenzhen, accusing Washington of carrying out a "coordinated, tactical geopolitical campaign" against Huawei.

He also said that the current discussions around 5G technology - of which Huawei is one of the main promoters - revolve around politics and questioned the US’ motives.

"Some say that because these countries are using Huawei equipment, it makes it harder for US agencies to obtain these countries' data," Xu added.

His statements come after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made an Eastern European tour where he warned about the growing presence of Huawei in the region.

During his visit, Pompeo warned US allies about deploying the Chinese company's products, saying those that do so would make it difficult for the US to partner with.

Xu also said that Huawei will invest more than $2 billion over the next five years to improve the cybersecurity of its equipment, including rewriting code, as an additional step to increase the confidence of foreign firms.

At the end of last month, the US Department of Justice formally accused Huawei, two affiliated companies and its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, of 13 counts of fraud and conspiracy to bypass sanctions on Iran.

Huawei has been the subject of constant scrutiny by the US government which has banned the company from installing its telecommunications equipment in important networks of the country over concerns that they can be used to spy on the US.

The governments of Australia and New Zealand have also banned the installation of Huawei’s 5G equipment, while Canada is reviewing its relationship with the firm and the UK has asked the company to fix problems that pose risks to the network.

Huawei, which is the world's largest manufacturer of telecommunications equipment and the second-largest smartphone maker, claimed that it posed no threat to US security and added that the company was operating independently of the government of China.

One of Huawei's three rotating chairmen accused the United States of creating a geopolitical campaign against the Chinese company to persuade other countries not to use its products, the official daily China Daily reported Friday.

One of Huawei's three rotating chairmen accused the United States of creating a geopolitical campaign against the Chinese company to persuade other countries not to use its products, the official daily China Daily reported Friday. Xu Zhijun criticized the US at a press conference in Shenzhen, accusing Washington of carrying out a "coordinated, tactical geopolitical campaign" against Huawei. He also said that the current discussions around 5G technology - of which Huawei is one of the main promoters - revolve around politics and questioned the US’ motives. "Some say that because these countries are using Huawei equipment, it makes it harder for US agencies to obtain these countries' data," Xu added. His statements come after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made an Eastern European tour where he warned about the growing presence of Huawei in the region. During his visit, Pompeo warned US allies about deploying the Chinese company's products, saying those that do so would make it difficult for the US to partner with. Xu also said that Huawei will invest more than $2 billion over the next five years to improve the cybersecurity of its equipment, including rewriting code, as an additional step to increase the confidence of foreign firms. At the end of last month, the US Department of Justice formally accused Huawei, two affiliated companies and its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, of 13 counts of fraud and conspiracy to bypass sanctions on Iran. Huawei has been the subject of constant scrutiny by the US government which has banned the company from installing its telecommunications equipment in important networks of the country over concerns that they can be used to spy on the US. The governments of Australia and New Zealand have also banned the installation of Huawei’s 5G equipment, while Canada is reviewing its relationship with the firm and the UK has asked the company to fix problems that pose risks to the network. Huawei, which is the world's largest manufacturer of telecommunications equipment and the second-largest smartphone maker, claimed that it posed no threat to US security and added that the company was operating independently of the government of China.

Huawei accuses US of orchestrating geopolitical campaign against it

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said talks with China went well on Wednesday, as the world's two largest economies try to iron out an agreement to resolve their trade dispute.

"So far, so good," he said when asked by reporters on how the meetings in Beijing went. He did not say who he met.

Mnuchin said earlier he hoped for "productive" trade meetings as the two countries seek to end a festering dispute that has seen both sides level tariffs at one other.

US tariffs on $200 billion worth of imports from China are scheduled to rise to 25 per cent from 10 per cent if the two sides cannot reach a deal by a March 1 deadline, increasing pain and costs in sectors from consumer electronics to agriculture.

Mnuchin, asked by reporters as he left his Beijing hotel what his hopes were for the visit, said "productive meetings". He did not elaborate.

Mnuchin, along with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, arrived in the Chinese capital on Tuesday.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he could let the deadline for a trade agreement "slide for a little while," but that he would prefer not to and expects to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to close the deal at some point.

Trump's advisers have previously described March 1 as a "hard deadline," but Trump told reporters that a delay was now possible.

He said in December that the 90-day truce could be extended, but that he could revert to tariffs if differences could not be resolved.

A growing number of US businesses and lawmakers have expressed hopes for a delay in the tariff increase while the two sides tackle the difficult US demands for major structural policy changes by China aimed at ending the forced transfer of American trade secrets, curbing Beijing's industrial subsidies and enforcing intellectual property rights.

Trump said last week he did not plan to meet with Xi before the March 1 deadline.

Mnuchin and Lighthizer are scheduled to hold talks on Thursday and Friday with Vice Premier Liu He, the top economic adviser to Xi.

The latest round of talks in Beijing kicked off on Monday with discussions among deputy-level officials to try to work out technical details, including a mechanism for enforcing any trade agreement.

China's Foreign Ministry referred questions on the talks to the Ministry of Commerce, which did not respond to a request for comment.

A round of talks at the end of January ended with some progress reported, but no deal, and US declarations that much more work was needed.

Dodge a bullet

James Green, a senior research fellow at Georgetown University, said he believed China was looking to secure a Xi-Trump meeting in the hope that it would make a near-term deal on tariffs far more likely.

"From their point of view, they would have dodged a bullet," Green, who was USTR's top official at the US embassy in Beijing until mid-2018, told Reuters by telephone.

But there is growing bipartisan concern in the United States about increasing state control of China's economy, military activity in the South China Sea, and security issues around its technology companies.

Even if the two sides could come to terms on tariffs, that might not mean an end to trade friction, Green added.

"I think that whatever we might get for an agreement, it will be a pause, because the US government is still going to move forward in the telecoms sector, on law enforcement and legal action, and on sanctions-related issues."

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo cautioned allies on Monday against deploying equipment from Chinese telecoms giant Huawei Technologies on their soil, saying it would make it more difficult for Washington to "partner alongside them".

The United States and its Western allies believe Huawei's apparatus could be used for espionage, and see its expansion into central Europe as a way to gain a foothold in the European Union market.

Both the Chinese government and Huawei have dismissed these concerns.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said talks with China went well on Wednesday, as the world's two largest economies try to iron out an agreement to resolve their trade dispute.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said talks with China went well on Wednesday, as the world's two largest economies try to iron out an agreement to resolve their trade dispute. "So far, so good," he said when asked by reporters on how the meetings in Beijing went. He did not say who he met. Mnuchin said earlier he hoped for "productive" trade meetings as the two countries seek to end a festering dispute that has seen both sides level tariffs at one other. US tariffs on $200 billion worth of imports from China are scheduled to rise to 25 per cent from 10 per cent if the two sides cannot reach a deal by a March 1 deadline, increasing pain and costs in sectors from consumer electronics to agriculture. Mnuchin, asked by reporters as he left his Beijing hotel what his hopes were for the visit, said "productive meetings". He did not elaborate. Mnuchin, along with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, arrived in the Chinese capital on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he could let the deadline for a trade agreement "slide for a little while," but that he would prefer not to and expects to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to close the deal at some point. Trump's advisers have previously described March 1 as a "hard deadline," but Trump told reporters that a delay was now possible. He said in December that the 90-day truce could be extended, but that he could revert to tariffs if differences could not be resolved. A growing number of US businesses and lawmakers have expressed hopes for a delay in the tariff increase while the two sides tackle the difficult US demands for major structural policy changes by China aimed at ending the forced transfer of American trade secrets, curbing Beijing's industrial subsidies and enforcing intellectual property rights. Trump said last week he did not plan to meet with Xi before the March 1 deadline. Mnuchin and Lighthizer are scheduled to hold talks on Thursday and Friday with Vice Premier Liu He, the top economic adviser to Xi. The latest round of talks in Beijing kicked off on Monday with discussions among deputy-level officials to try to work out technical details, including a mechanism for enforcing any trade agreement. China's Foreign Ministry referred questions on the talks to the Ministry of Commerce, which did not respond to a request for comment. A round of talks at the end of January ended with some progress reported, but no deal, and US declarations that much more work was needed. Dodge a bullet James Green, a senior research fellow at Georgetown University, said he believed China was looking to secure a Xi-Trump meeting in the hope that it would make a near-term deal on tariffs far more likely. "From their point of view, they would have dodged a bullet," Green, who was USTR's top official at the US embassy in Beijing until mid-2018, told Reuters by telephone. But there is growing bipartisan concern in the United States about increasing state control of China's economy, military activity in the South China Sea, and security issues around its technology companies. Even if the two sides could come to terms on tariffs, that might not mean an end to trade friction, Green added. "I think that whatever we might get for an agreement, it will be a pause, because the US government is still going to move forward in the telecoms sector, on law enforcement and legal action, and on sanctions-related issues." US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo cautioned allies on Monday against deploying equipment from Chinese telecoms giant Huawei Technologies on their soil, saying it would make it more difficult for Washington to "partner alongside them". The United States and its Western allies believe Huawei's apparatus could be used for espionage, and see its expansion into central Europe as a way to gain a foothold in the European Union market. Both the Chinese government and Huawei have dismissed these concerns.

'So far, so good,' Steven Mnuchin says of trade talks in China

US secretary of state Mike Pompeo during his visit to Hungary cautioned the government against <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/italy-to-ban-huawei-from-its-5g-plans-report-195806">Chinese</a> and Russian influence.

Pompeo was particularly insistent on Hungry not allowing <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/china-tells-canada-to-free-huawei-cfo-or-face-consequences-182513">Chinese telecom giant Huawei </a>access to 5G network.

"If that equipment is co-located where we have important American systems, it makes it more difficult for us to partner alongside them," Pompeo said.

"We want to make sure we identify (to) them the opportunities and the risks with using that equipment. And then they will get to make their decisions," he added.

Pompeo had dinner with Hungarian PM Viktor Orban as the two leaders agreed to further ties.

"We must not let Putin drive wedges between friends in NATO," Pompeo said, adding, "An authoritarian Russia will never be a friend to the freedom and sovereignty of smaller nations."

Pompeo said the United States had earlier pushed Hungary into the arms of "folks who didn't share our values" and vowed to "compete for positive influence in the region".

Pompeo announced plans for a defence cooperation agreement with Hungary but added that he had discussed "the dangers of allowing China to gain a bridgehead in Hungary" during his talks with foreign minister Peter Szijjarto.

Hungry is Russia's biggest ally in eastern Europe with the country dependent on its energy needs on the Putin regime but has indicated its interest to join hands with the Trump administration.

"When it comes to cooperation with Russia or cooperation with the People's Republic of China that does not harm us being reliable as a NATO ally," Hungry's foreign minister said.

Pompeo is on a visit to various countries including Poland and the Middle East

"Hungary's government and President Donald Trump's administration represent an identical, or very similar, approaches in both general political and numerous international political issues," he added.

Pompeo is on a visit to various countries including Poland and the Middle East to engage with the government as the Trump administration seeks to further ties with countries.

In Poland, the government is considering banning Huawei from participating in the development of 5G capabilities after arresting a Chinese employee of Huawei and a former Polish security official on spying.&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

US secretary of state Mike Pompeo during his visit to Hungary cautioned the government against Chinese and Russian influence. Pompeo was particularly insistent on Hungry not allowing Chinese telecom giant Huawei access to 5G network.

US secretary of state Mike Pompeo during his visit to Hungary cautioned the government against Chinese and Russian influence. Pompeo was particularly insistent on Hungry not allowing Chinese telecom giant Huawei access to 5G network. "If that equipment is co-located where we have important American systems, it makes it more difficult for us to partner alongside them," Pompeo said. "We want to make sure we identify (to) them the opportunities and the risks with using that equipment. And then they will get to make their decisions," he added. Pompeo had dinner with Hungarian PM Viktor Orban as the two leaders agreed to further ties. "We must not let Putin drive wedges between friends in NATO," Pompeo said, adding, "An authoritarian Russia will never be a friend to the freedom and sovereignty of smaller nations." Pompeo said the United States had earlier pushed Hungary into the arms of "folks who didn't share our values" and vowed to "compete for positive influence in the region". Pompeo announced plans for a defence cooperation agreement with Hungary but added that he had discussed "the dangers of allowing China to gain a bridgehead in Hungary" during his talks with foreign minister Peter Szijjarto. Hungry is Russia's biggest ally in eastern Europe with the country dependent on its energy needs on the Putin regime but has indicated its interest to join hands with the Trump administration. "When it comes to cooperation with Russia or cooperation with the People's Republic of China that does not harm us being reliable as a NATO ally," Hungry's foreign minister said. Pompeo is on a visit to various countries including Poland and the Middle East "Hungary's government and President Donald Trump's administration represent an identical, or very similar, approaches in both general political and numerous international political issues," he added. Pompeo is on a visit to various countries including Poland and the Middle East to engage with the government as the Trump administration seeks to further ties with countries. In Poland, the government is considering banning Huawei from participating in the development of 5G capabilities after arresting a Chinese employee of Huawei and a former Polish security official on spying.

If Huawei is co-located with American systems, it would be difficult for us to partner: Pompeo to Hungary

US&nbsp;negotiators are preparing to press China next week on longstanding demands that it reform how it treats American companies' intellectual property in order to seal a trade deal that could prevent tariffs from rising on Chinese imports.

A new round of trade talks begins in Beijing on Monday, after the most recent set of negotiations concluded in Washington last week without a deal and with the top US&nbsp;negotiator declaring that a lot more work needed to be done.

A White House official said on Friday that preparations were under way and the talks would continue to focus on pressing Beijing to make structural reforms.

The White House announced a timeframe for the Beijing talks in a statement. It said lower-level officials will kick off the meetings on Monday, led on the American side by Deputy US&nbsp;Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish.

Higher principal-level talks will take place Thursday and Friday with US&nbsp;Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

Lighthizer, named by Trump to spearhead the process after agreeing a 90-day truce in the trade war with Beijing, has been a strong proponent of pushing China to make such reforms and end what the United States views as unfair trade practices including stealing intellectual property and forcing US&nbsp;companies to share their technology with Chinese firms.

China has denied it engages in such practices.

"The United States is a great producer of technology, and innovation, and know-how, and trade secrets. And we have to operate in an environment where those things are protected," Lighthizer said last week after talks at the White House.

"I'm by no means predicting success; there is a lot of work that has to be done," he said.

The two sides are trying to hammer out a deal ahead of the March 1 deadline when US&nbsp;tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports are scheduled to increase to 25 percent from 10 percent.

China's Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Saturday that the two countries would have a "further deep discussion on issues of mutual concern" on the basis of what they talked about at the last round of talks in Washington. It gave no details.

China's ambassador to the United States, Cui Tiankai, said in Michigan on Friday that a "zero-sum game" mindset was destructive to China-US&nbsp;ties, the state-run news agency Xinhua reported.

Chinese and US&nbsp;companies should compete as well as cooperate with each other, Cui said.

"The real story in business is not that black and white," the report quoted him as saying.

Trump said on Thursday he did not plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before that deadline, dampening hopes that a trade pact could be reached quickly.

"We are hearing the list of issues the two presidents will ultimately have to make decisions on is being narrowed, so that's an indication that things are being addressed. But we're also hearing that there's a lot of work to be done," said Erin Ennis, senior vice president of the US-China Business Council, who says she has spoken with officials in both the United States and China. "I don’t think either side is expecting a draft of something next week."

Another source who had been briefed on the talks said a lot of work also needed to be done on an enforcement mechanism for a potential deal.

"If there's some indication that they're making progress on subsidies, forced tech transfer and the constellation of issues there and an enforcement mechanism, that would be interesting. The word coming out of this last round was that there was very limited, measly progress on those issues," the source said.

Escalating tensions between the United States and China have cost both countries billions of dollars and roiled global financial markets.

If the negotiations do not progress sufficiently, the US&nbsp;officials said increased tariffs will take effect.

Washington could agree to extend the deadline without a deal if talks are progressing. Trump said last week he did not think the deadline would need to be extended, though he said a deal might not be on paper by then.

&nbsp;

US negotiators are preparing to press China next week on longstanding demands that it reform how it treats American companies' intellectual property in order to seal a trade deal that could prevent tariffs from rising on Chinese imports.

US negotiators are preparing to press China next week on longstanding demands that it reform how it treats American companies' intellectual property in order to seal a trade deal that could prevent tariffs from rising on Chinese imports. A new round of trade talks begins in Beijing on Monday, after the most recent set of negotiations concluded in Washington last week without a deal and with the top US negotiator declaring that a lot more work needed to be done. A White House official said on Friday that preparations were under way and the talks would continue to focus on pressing Beijing to make structural reforms. The White House announced a timeframe for the Beijing talks in a statement. It said lower-level officials will kick off the meetings on Monday, led on the American side by Deputy US Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish. Higher principal-level talks will take place Thursday and Friday with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Lighthizer, named by Trump to spearhead the process after agreeing a 90-day truce in the trade war with Beijing, has been a strong proponent of pushing China to make such reforms and end what the United States views as unfair trade practices including stealing intellectual property and forcing US companies to share their technology with Chinese firms. China has denied it engages in such practices. "The United States is a great producer of technology, and innovation, and know-how, and trade secrets. And we have to operate in an environment where those things are protected," Lighthizer said last week after talks at the White House. "I'm by no means predicting success; there is a lot of work that has to be done," he said. The two sides are trying to hammer out a deal ahead of the March 1 deadline when US tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports are scheduled to increase to 25 percent from 10 percent. China's Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Saturday that the two countries would have a "further deep discussion on issues of mutual concern" on the basis of what they talked about at the last round of talks in Washington. It gave no details. China's ambassador to the United States, Cui Tiankai, said in Michigan on Friday that a "zero-sum game" mindset was destructive to China-US ties, the state-run news agency Xinhua reported. Chinese and US companies should compete as well as cooperate with each other, Cui said. "The real story in business is not that black and white," the report quoted him as saying. Trump said on Thursday he did not plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before that deadline, dampening hopes that a trade pact could be reached quickly. "We are hearing the list of issues the two presidents will ultimately have to make decisions on is being narrowed, so that's an indication that things are being addressed. But we're also hearing that there's a lot of work to be done," said Erin Ennis, senior vice president of the US-China Business Council, who says she has spoken with officials in both the United States and China. "I don’t think either side is expecting a draft of something next week." Another source who had been briefed on the talks said a lot of work also needed to be done on an enforcement mechanism for a potential deal. "If there's some indication that they're making progress on subsidies, forced tech transfer and the constellation of issues there and an enforcement mechanism, that would be interesting. The word coming out of this last round was that there was very limited, measly progress on those issues," the source said. Escalating tensions between the United States and China have cost both countries billions of dollars and roiled global financial markets. If the negotiations do not progress sufficiently, the US officials said increased tariffs will take effect. Washington could agree to extend the deadline without a deal if talks are progressing. Trump said last week he did not think the deadline would need to be extended, though he said a deal might not be on paper by then.

US-China trade talks resume next week, focus on intellectual property

President Donald Trump on Tuesday told Congress that <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/nato-treated-us-unfairly-says-trump-during-state-of-the-union-address-195468">Washington's aggressive trade negotiations </a>with Beijing would mean an end to China's alleged "theft" of US jobs and wealth.

In his annual State of the Union address, <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/the-proper-wall-never-got-built-i-will-get-it-built-says-trump-during-state-of-the-union-address-195465">Trump also called on China to make</a> the kind of far-reaching "structural" changes to industrial policy that analysts say Beijing is likely to resist.

The world's<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/this-year-us-astronauts-will-go-back-to-space-in-american-rockets-says-trump-in-state-of-the-union-address-195461"> two largest economies have 24 days</a> left in a three-month truce in their trade war before US duty rates are due to rise sharply -- an escalation that economists say could be a powerful negative shock to the global economy.

"We are now making it clear to China that after years of targeting our industries, and stealing our intellectual property, the theft of American jobs and wealth has come to an end," Trump said in his annual State of the Union address.

Any agreement with Beijing "must include real, structural change to end unfair trade practices," Trump said.

Last week, top US and Chinese officials proclaimed progress and comity after two days of talks in Washington, but they disclosed few details.

Washington and Beijing have slapped punishing tariffs on more than $360 billion in two-way trade, which has weighed on the two countries' manufacturing sectors and sent jitters through global markets.

The US trade deficit has swelled more than 18 per cent since Trump took office, rising far faster than economic growth, and has hit record heights with China in particular.

The president also renewed his often-repeated falsehood that China was paying the US import duties on its exports.

"Our Treasury is receiving billions of dollars a month from a country that never gave us a dime," Trump said.

In fact, such duties are paid by US importers, with costs in many cases passed on to consumers.

Trump also lauded signs of US economic strength, including robust job creation and falling unemployment.

"We are considered far and away the hottest economy anywhere in the world," Trump said.

"Unemployment has reached the lowest rate in over half a century."

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office predicts the US economy will slow this year and the year after that as the effects of 2017's sweeping tax overhaul fade.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday told Congress that Washington's aggressive trade negotiations with Beijing would mean an end to China's alleged "theft" of US jobs and wealth.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday told Congress that Washington's aggressive trade negotiations with Beijing would mean an end to China's alleged "theft" of US jobs and wealth. In his annual State of the Union address, Trump also called on China to make the kind of far-reaching "structural" changes to industrial policy that analysts say Beijing is likely to resist. The world's two largest economies have 24 days left in a three-month truce in their trade war before US duty rates are due to rise sharply -- an escalation that economists say could be a powerful negative shock to the global economy. "We are now making it clear to China that after years of targeting our industries, and stealing our intellectual property, the theft of American jobs and wealth has come to an end," Trump said in his annual State of the Union address. Any agreement with Beijing "must include real, structural change to end unfair trade practices," Trump said. Last week, top US and Chinese officials proclaimed progress and comity after two days of talks in Washington, but they disclosed few details. Washington and Beijing have slapped punishing tariffs on more than $360 billion in two-way trade, which has weighed on the two countries' manufacturing sectors and sent jitters through global markets. The US trade deficit has swelled more than 18 per cent since Trump took office, rising far faster than economic growth, and has hit record heights with China in particular. The president also renewed his often-repeated falsehood that China was paying the US import duties on its exports. "Our Treasury is receiving billions of dollars a month from a country that never gave us a dime," Trump said. In fact, such duties are paid by US importers, with costs in many cases passed on to consumers. Trump also lauded signs of US economic strength, including robust job creation and falling unemployment. "We are considered far and away the hottest economy anywhere in the world," Trump said. "Unemployment has reached the lowest rate in over half a century." The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office predicts the US economy will slow this year and the year after that as the effects of 2017's sweeping tax overhaul fade.

Theft of American jobs, stealing of our intellectual property will end: Trump on trade deal with China in State of the Union address

Huawei executive <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/will-pursue-extradition-of-huaweis-meng-wanzhou-confirms-us-justice-department-192267">Meng Wanzhou</a>, who was arrested in Canada and faces possible extradition to the United States, is exploring a defence that claims US&nbsp;charges against her are politically motivated, the Globe and Mail newspaper reported on Monday.

Meng, the chief financial officer of China's <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/european-telecoms-dilemma-huawei-or-the-highway-194704">Huawei Technologies</a> Co Ltd, is the central figure in a high-stakes dispute between the United States and China. Canada arrested Meng in December at the request of the United States and last month she was charged with wire fraud that violated US&nbsp;sanctions on Iran.

"The political overlay of this case is remarkable," Richard Peck, lead counsel for Meng, told the Toronto newspaper in a telephone interview.

"That's probably the one thing that sets it apart from any other extradition case I've ever seen. It's got this cloud of politicization hanging over it," Peck added.

The office of Canadian Justice Minister David Lametti said it could not speculate on Meng's possible defences.

"We are committed to a fair process unfolding before the courts and the steps undertaken by the Department of Justice Canada on this case have followed due process, in accordance with the Extradition Act, the Charter of Rights and Freedoms and our Treaty with the United States," a spokeswoman for Canada's Department of Justice said in an e-mailed statement.

Peck's office did not respond to a request for comment. A Huawei spokesman declined to comment.

In December, US President Donald Trump said in a Reuters interview he would intervene in the Justice Department's case against Meng if it would serve national security interests or help close a trade deal with China.

Canada fired John McCallum, its ambassador to China, in January after he said Meng could make a strong argument against being sent to the United States.

"He [Mr McCallum] mentions some of the potential defences - and certainly, I think any person that knows this area would see the potential for those defences arising," Peck told the Globe and Mail.

Meng's lawyers are also planning to challenge whether her alleged conduct would be deemed criminal under Canadian law, the Globe and Mail said.

Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, who was arrested in Canada and faces possible extradition to the United States, is exploring a defence that claims US charges against her are politically motivated, the Globe and Mail newspaper reported on Monday.

Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, who was arrested in Canada and faces possible extradition to the United States, is exploring a defence that claims US charges against her are politically motivated, the Globe and Mail newspaper reported on Monday. Meng, the chief financial officer of China's Huawei Technologies Co Ltd, is the central figure in a high-stakes dispute between the United States and China. Canada arrested Meng in December at the request of the United States and last month she was charged with wire fraud that violated US sanctions on Iran. "The political overlay of this case is remarkable," Richard Peck, lead counsel for Meng, told the Toronto newspaper in a telephone interview. "That's probably the one thing that sets it apart from any other extradition case I've ever seen. It's got this cloud of politicization hanging over it," Peck added. The office of Canadian Justice Minister David Lametti said it could not speculate on Meng's possible defences. "We are committed to a fair process unfolding before the courts and the steps undertaken by the Department of Justice Canada on this case have followed due process, in accordance with the Extradition Act, the Charter of Rights and Freedoms and our Treaty with the United States," a spokeswoman for Canada's Department of Justice said in an e-mailed statement. Peck's office did not respond to a request for comment. A Huawei spokesman declined to comment. In December, US President Donald Trump said in a Reuters interview he would intervene in the Justice Department's case against Meng if it would serve national security interests or help close a trade deal with China. Canada fired John McCallum, its ambassador to China, in January after he said Meng could make a strong argument against being sent to the United States. "He [Mr McCallum] mentions some of the potential defences - and certainly, I think any person that knows this area would see the potential for those defences arising," Peck told the Globe and Mail. Meng's lawyers are also planning to challenge whether her alleged conduct would be deemed criminal under Canadian law, the Globe and Mail said.

Huawei CFO Wanzhou may fight extradition by claiming US political motive: Report

India is among the several countries that stand to benefit from the ongoing trade tensions between the world's top two economies - the US and China, the UN has said in its latest report.

The US and China are locked in a trade war since President Donald Trump imposed heavy tariffs on imported steel and aluminium items in March last year, a move that sparked fears of a global trade war.

In response, China imposed tit-for-tat tariffs on billions of dollars worth of American imports.

The United Nations experts said Monday that the tit-for-tat trade dispute between China and the United States may do little to protect domestic producers in either country and could have "massive" implications on the global economy unless it is resolved.

Of the $250 billion in Chinese exports that are subject to US tariffs, only about six per cent will be picked up by firms in the US, according to a report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

And of the approximately $85 billion in US exports that are subject to China's tariffs, only about five per cent of this will be taken up by Chinese firms, according to the UN research.

In a bid to meet the US' demand for bringing down the $375 billion bilateral trade deficit, China has pledged to take measures to step-up American imports and investments. March 1, 2019, is the deadline for implementing the measures.

Unless the US and China agree to drop their tariff dispute by March 1, duty on each country's products will rise to 25 per cent, up from the current 10 per cent level, the UN said.

Countries that are expected to benefit the most from the trade war are the EU members as exports in the bloc are likely to grow by $70 billion. Japan and Canada will see exports increase by more than $20 billion each, it said.

Other countries set to benefit from the trade tensions include Australia, with 4.6 per cent export gains, Brazil (3.8) India (3.5), Philippines (3.2) and Vietnam (5), the study said.

Quoting former US Secretary of State Cordell Hull, UNCTAD's Pamela Coke-Hamilton repeated his description of protective tariffs as "a gun that recoils on ourselves", which had also contributed to the Great Depression of the 1930s and the rise of extremism.

"I think that is a single lesson from what we have had here today. If - barring an agreement between the US, China on March 1 - tariffs will escalate to 25 per cent, which is a significant difference from the 10 per cent as it currently exists," Coke-Hamilton said.

The implications of such a development would be "massive", the UNCTAD Director, Division on International Trade in Goods and Services, and Commodities continued, adding that its effects would, first of all, involve "an economic downturn... Due to instability in commodities and financial markets".

"One major concern is the risk that trade tensions could spiral into currency wars, making dollar-denominated debt more difficult to service," the report added.

Imposing tariffs make US-made products cheaper than imported ones and encourage consumers to buy American.&nbsp;

India is among the several countries that stand to benefit from the ongoing trade tensions between the world's top two economies - the US and China, the UN has said in its latest report.

India is among the several countries that stand to benefit from the ongoing trade tensions between the world's top two economies - the US and China, the UN has said in its latest report. The US and China are locked in a trade war since President Donald Trump imposed heavy tariffs on imported steel and aluminium items in March last year, a move that sparked fears of a global trade war. In response, China imposed tit-for-tat tariffs on billions of dollars worth of American imports. The United Nations experts said Monday that the tit-for-tat trade dispute between China and the United States may do little to protect domestic producers in either country and could have "massive" implications on the global economy unless it is resolved. Of the $250 billion in Chinese exports that are subject to US tariffs, only about six per cent will be picked up by firms in the US, according to a report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). And of the approximately $85 billion in US exports that are subject to China's tariffs, only about five per cent of this will be taken up by Chinese firms, according to the UN research. In a bid to meet the US' demand for bringing down the $375 billion bilateral trade deficit, China has pledged to take measures to step-up American imports and investments. March 1, 2019, is the deadline for implementing the measures. Unless the US and China agree to drop their tariff dispute by March 1, duty on each country's products will rise to 25 per cent, up from the current 10 per cent level, the UN said. Countries that are expected to benefit the most from the trade war are the EU members as exports in the bloc are likely to grow by $70 billion. Japan and Canada will see exports increase by more than $20 billion each, it said. Other countries set to benefit from the trade tensions include Australia, with 4.6 per cent export gains, Brazil (3.8) India (3.5), Philippines (3.2) and Vietnam (5), the study said. Quoting former US Secretary of State Cordell Hull, UNCTAD's Pamela Coke-Hamilton repeated his description of protective tariffs as "a gun that recoils on ourselves", which had also contributed to the Great Depression of the 1930s and the rise of extremism. "I think that is a single lesson from what we have had here today. If - barring an agreement between the US, China on March 1 - tariffs will escalate to 25 per cent, which is a significant difference from the 10 per cent as it currently exists," Coke-Hamilton said. The implications of such a development would be "massive", the UNCTAD Director, Division on International Trade in Goods and Services, and Commodities continued, adding that its effects would, first of all, involve "an economic downturn... Due to instability in commodities and financial markets". "One major concern is the risk that trade tensions could spiral into currency wars, making dollar-denominated debt more difficult to service," the report added. Imposing tariffs make US-made products cheaper than imported ones and encourage consumers to buy American.

India among countries to benefit from US-China trade war: United Nations

Thucydides, the great historian of the Peloponnesian Wars between Athens and Sparta, held by some to the doyen of the school of the realist school of international relations famously said: “What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear that this caused in Sparta”. This assertion, in the 20th century, formulated into a coinage by Harvard professor, Graham Allison, who called it the “Thucydides Trap” referred to the fear that a rising power caused in an incumbent one which then escalated toward war. &nbsp;&nbsp;

The "Thucydides Trap" appears to have a searing resonance in the relations between the United States and China with the former being the incumbent power and the latter a rising one. Echoes of the trap, while resplendent in most domains and areas of the relationship between the two also came when the United States sent two warships through the Taiwan Strait in the first such operation this year. &nbsp;&nbsp;

Taiwan being a major flashpoint between the United States and China, the voyage risks further heightening tensions with China, which considers Taiwan its own and has not ruled out the use of force to bring the self-ruled island under its control. While this particular incident or event is more in the nature of posturing designed to send a message to China but, in the grand scheme of things, it could be held as a prelude to a putative militarised dynamic and tenor of relations between the two countries.

All this assumes salience against the backdrop of the Trump presidency which has held China in its crosshairs. Be it the trade wars initiated by the American president, or other forms of disputes and tensions thereof, it is increasingly becoming clear that the United States is stymieing China’s efforts to attain Great Power status. 
 
Inevitably or perhaps naturally, China will not only resent this stymieing but also make counter efforts to check, balance or hedge the United States. What will ensue is friction and frisson which might, at some point in time, lend themselves to an outright confrontation between the two.

In the process, there will be an inexorable drift to the “Thucydides Trap” which might become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

An alarming scenario, it must be checked and contained the soonest for if war occurs between the United States and China, the strides of progress that the world has made will be frittered and, in an extreme scenario, mankind’s survival might be at risk. The question is how?

The answer lies in the realm of both politics and economics. As the wit has said, “all war is bad politics”. This is a maxim that powers that be across the China-United States divide must take to heart and devise means and mechanism of a political nature that precludes the option of war. In the realm of the immediate, this could mean instituting and crystallising confidence-building measures that aim at reassurance and not confrontation and conflict.&nbsp;

The complement to this approach must be disavowing mercantilist protectionist approaches of the political economy toward each other and actually deepening trade and financial linkages. While this “complex interdependence”, historically, did not prevent the first World War, but deepening trade and financial linkages, because they lead to economic growth and development for members enmeshed into its framework, create stakes and opportunities which make war not impossible but improbable. 
&nbsp; 
It is the cumulative confluence of the two that might create propitious conditions between China and the United States and preclude the drift toward war. But, alas, the actual and real condition of the world and domestic politics across the world suggest that this salubrious condition or set of conditions might not actually come to pass. The “return” of the nation-state and its concomitant, nationalism, along with protectionist mercantilism besides leading to what has been called “ deglobalisation” is also making the world a more edgy and a fraught place. Among other things, this has heightened the salience of geopolitics and competition thereof whose corollary is heightened conflict and tension.&nbsp;

Without any real checks to militarised competition between the major states of the international system and a flawed and weak global governance institutional architecture, what might actually come to pass is the “Thucydides Trap” which, broken down, amidst the contemporary geopolitical and world political configuration might mean war between China and the United States. 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Thucydides, the great historian of the Peloponnesian Wars between Athens and Sparta, held by some to the doyen of the school of the realist school of international relations famously said: “What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear that this caused in Sparta”.

Thucydides, the great historian of the Peloponnesian Wars between Athens and Sparta, held by some to the doyen of the school of the realist school of international relations famously said: “What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear that this caused in Sparta”. This assertion, in the 20th century, formulated into a coinage by Harvard professor, Graham Allison, who called it the “Thucydides Trap” referred to the fear that a rising power caused in an incumbent one which then escalated toward war. The "Thucydides Trap" appears to have a searing resonance in the relations between the United States and China with the former being the incumbent power and the latter a rising one. Echoes of the trap, while resplendent in most domains and areas of the relationship between the two also came when the United States sent two warships through the Taiwan Strait in the first such operation this year. Taiwan being a major flashpoint between the United States and China, the voyage risks further heightening tensions with China, which considers Taiwan its own and has not ruled out the use of force to bring the self-ruled island under its control. While this particular incident or event is more in the nature of posturing designed to send a message to China but, in the grand scheme of things, it could be held as a prelude to a putative militarised dynamic and tenor of relations between the two countries. All this assumes salience against the backdrop of the Trump presidency which has held China in its crosshairs. Be it the trade wars initiated by the American president, or other forms of disputes and tensions thereof, it is increasingly becoming clear that the United States is stymieing China’s efforts to attain Great Power status. Inevitably or perhaps naturally, China will not only resent this stymieing but also make counter efforts to check, balance or hedge the United States. What will ensue is friction and frisson which might, at some point in time, lend themselves to an outright confrontation between the two. In the process, there will be an inexorable drift to the “Thucydides Trap” which might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. An alarming scenario, it must be checked and contained the soonest for if war occurs between the United States and China, the strides of progress that the world has made will be frittered and, in an extreme scenario, mankind’s survival might be at risk. The question is how? The answer lies in the realm of both politics and economics. As the wit has said, “all war is bad politics”. This is a maxim that powers that be across the China-United States divide must take to heart and devise means and mechanism of a political nature that precludes the option of war. In the realm of the immediate, this could mean instituting and crystallising confidence-building measures that aim at reassurance and not confrontation and conflict. The complement to this approach must be disavowing mercantilist protectionist approaches of the political economy toward each other and actually deepening trade and financial linkages. While this “complex interdependence”, historically, did not prevent the first World War, but deepening trade and financial linkages, because they lead to economic growth and development for members enmeshed into its framework, create stakes and opportunities which make war not impossible but improbable. It is the cumulative confluence of the two that might create propitious conditions between China and the United States and preclude the drift toward war. But, alas, the actual and real condition of the world and domestic politics across the world suggest that this salubrious condition or set of conditions might not actually come to pass. The “return” of the nation-state and its concomitant, nationalism, along with protectionist mercantilism besides leading to what has been called “ deglobalisation” is also making the world a more edgy and a fraught place. Among other things, this has heightened the salience of geopolitics and competition thereof whose corollary is heightened conflict and tension. Without any real checks to militarised competition between the major states of the international system and a flawed and weak global governance institutional architecture, what might actually come to pass is the “Thucydides Trap” which, broken down, amidst the contemporary geopolitical and world political configuration might mean war between China and the United States. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

China-United States relations and the 'Thucydides Trap'

After reports emerged that the<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/us-to-formally-seek-extradition-of-huawei-executive-meng-wanzhou-globe-and-mail-191936"> US may formally extradite Huawei executive</a> Meng Wanzhou from Canada, the Chinese foreign ministry said it is an abuse of extradition treaties between the United States and Canada and a serious violation of Chinese citizen's safety and legitimate rights and interests.

"China has strongly urged Canada to<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/executive-of-chinas-huawei-asks-for-bail-in-us-extradition-case-183236"> immediately release Ms Meng</a>, and earnestly guarantee her justified and legitimate rights," China's foreign ministry spokesman Hua Chunying said.

Meng, 46, who is the daughter of the founder Ren Zhengfei, was arrested and then released on bail last month by a Canadian court after the United States accused the Huawei top executive of misleading multinational banks about Iran-linked transactions thereby working against US sanctions.

Meng denied the charge as she was released subject to guarantee of $7.5 million and barred from leaving the country. The development angered Chinese authorities threatened&nbsp;severe consequences if Meng was extradited to the US.

Meng has been&nbsp;put under electronic surveillance in a luxury home in Vancouver awaiting action from the US administration.

"China has also strongly urged the United States to immediately correct its mistake, repeal its warrant of arrest for Meng Wanzhou and drop the extradition request to Canada," the foreign ministry spokesman said.

Meng was detained on December 1st as she was changing planes in Vancouver airport.

Relations between Canada and China have hit rock bottom ever since the Meng incident unfolded with Chinese authorities detaining ex-diplomat Michael Kovrig and China-based business consultant Michael Spavor for harming "national security".&nbsp;

As relations deteriorated, China announced death sentence for Canadian national Robert Schellenberg for smuggling methamphetamines even as Canada denounced the move.&nbsp;

After reports emerged that the US may formally extradite Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou from Canada, the Chinese foreign ministry said it is an abuse of extradition treaties between the United States and Canada and a serious violation of Chinese citizen's safety and legitimate rights and interests.

After reports emerged that the US may formally extradite Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou from Canada, the Chinese foreign ministry said it is an abuse of extradition treaties between the United States and Canada and a serious violation of Chinese citizen's safety and legitimate rights and interests. "China has strongly urged Canada to immediately release Ms Meng, and earnestly guarantee her justified and legitimate rights," China's foreign ministry spokesman Hua Chunying said. Meng, 46, who is the daughter of the founder Ren Zhengfei, was arrested and then released on bail last month by a Canadian court after the United States accused the Huawei top executive of misleading multinational banks about Iran-linked transactions thereby working against US sanctions. Meng denied the charge as she was released subject to guarantee of $7.5 million and barred from leaving the country. The development angered Chinese authorities threatened severe consequences if Meng was extradited to the US. Meng has been put under electronic surveillance in a luxury home in Vancouver awaiting action from the US administration. "China has also strongly urged the United States to immediately correct its mistake, repeal its warrant of arrest for Meng Wanzhou and drop the extradition request to Canada," the foreign ministry spokesman said. Meng was detained on December 1st as she was changing planes in Vancouver airport. Relations between Canada and China have hit rock bottom ever since the Meng incident unfolded with Chinese authorities detaining ex-diplomat Michael Kovrig and China-based business consultant Michael Spavor for harming "national security". As relations deteriorated, China announced death sentence for Canadian national Robert Schellenberg for smuggling methamphetamines even as Canada denounced the move.

Strongly urge US to immediately drop extradition request for Huawei's Meng Wanzhou: China

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow has played down reports of a breakthrough in US-China trade talks, but said progress had been made.

"We've made some progress with China in the deputy's meeting in Beijing," Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, told Fox Business.&nbsp;

But he added, "Nothing has been resolved, nothing on paper, no contracts."

Recent news reports of a deal being imminent were not accurate, he said.

Bloomberg had reported earlier Friday that Beijing had offered to eliminate its soaring trade surplus with the United States in five years.

The US sent a delegation led by Deputy Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish to Beijing earlier this month, where they held talks with China's foreign ministry to seek ways to end their trade war.

China's chief negotiator on trade disputes with the United States, Vice Premier Liu He, is due in Washington on January 30 and 31 for the next round talks.

In December, President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to a truce in their three-month trade war.

Washington suspended plans to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, to give negotiators space to find a solution to the dispute, which has triggered fears of a global economic slowdown.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow has played down reports of a breakthrough in US-China trade talks, but said progress had been made. "We've made some progress with China in the deputy's meeting in Beijing," Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, told Fox Business.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow has played down reports of a breakthrough in US-China trade talks, but said progress had been made. "We've made some progress with China in the deputy's meeting in Beijing," Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, told Fox Business. But he added, "Nothing has been resolved, nothing on paper, no contracts." Recent news reports of a deal being imminent were not accurate, he said. Bloomberg had reported earlier Friday that Beijing had offered to eliminate its soaring trade surplus with the United States in five years. The US sent a delegation led by Deputy Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish to Beijing earlier this month, where they held talks with China's foreign ministry to seek ways to end their trade war. China's chief negotiator on trade disputes with the United States, Vice Premier Liu He, is due in Washington on January 30 and 31 for the next round talks. In December, President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to a truce in their three-month trade war. Washington suspended plans to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, to give negotiators space to find a solution to the dispute, which has triggered fears of a global economic slowdown.

No breakthrough in US-China trade talks: Trump adviser

Asian stocks advanced on Friday as a report of progress in US-China trade talks stirred hopes of a deal in their tariff dispute and supported risk sentiment.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discussed lifting some or all tariffs imposed on Chinese imports and suggested offering a tariff rollback during trade discussions scheduled for January 30.

US stocks rallied following the report, but pared some of those gains after a Treasury spokesperson told CNBC that Mnuchin had not made any such recommendations. WSJ also reported that US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has resisted Mnuchin`s idea. For the day, all three major US indexes were up, led by a surge in industrial stocks.&nbsp;

Even the whiff of progress in the months-long Sino-U.S. trade war helped boost risk sentiment. MSCI`s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.7 per cent. The index has gained 1.4 per cent this week.

The Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.8 per cent.

Australian stocks rose 0.5 per cent, as did South Korea`s KOSPI while Japan`s Nikkei gained more than 1 per cent to a one-month high.

"As with 2018, the U.S.-China trade row remains a key market theme in 2019. A slight difference is that there are some signs that the two sides are seeking some sort of a resolution," said Soichiro Monji, senior economist at Daiwa SB Investments in Tokyo.

"China seems to be running low on options, while the United States would also want to avoid a prolonged conflict given the negative consequences on its markets and the economy," Monji said.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit the United States on January 30 and 31 for the latest round of trade talks aimed at resolving the dispute between the world`s two largest economies.

In December, Washington and Beijing agreed to a 90-day truce in a trade war that has disrupted the flow of hundreds of billions of dollars of goods.

Indicators released recently have shown signs that the Chinese economy is losing some momentum.

China`s fourth-quarter economic growth, due to be reported on Monday, likely slowed to the weakest pace since the global financial crisis, a Reuters poll showed, as demand faltered at home and abroad.

The dollar was mildly supported after US Treasury yields rose amid the improvement in risk appetite in the broader markets.

The greenback was a shade higher at 109.320 yen after popping up to a two-week high of 109.40 overnight. The dollar has gained about 0.7 per cent against the Japanese currency this week.

The euro was little changed at $1.1393 after dipping slightly overnight. The common currency was on track for a weekly loss of 0.7 per cent.

The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 2.750 per cent after going brushing 2.761 per cent the previous day, its highest in three weeks.

The pound traded at $1.2978, hovering close to a two-month peak of $1.3001 scaled overnight on the back of hopes that Britain can avoid a no-deal Brexit.

British Prime Minister Theresa May`s Brexit deal suffered a heavy defeat in parliament this week but she survived a subsequent vote of confidence, removing some political uncertainty for now.

US crude oil futures extended gains after rising the previous day on a bounce in Wall Street and news that OPEC sharply curtailed production in December.&nbsp;

US crude futures added 1 per cent to $52.61 per barrel. The contracts have gained more than 2 per cent this week.

Brent crude was up 0.8 per cent at $61.67 per barrel and on track to gain 2 per cent on the week.

Elsewhere in commodities, palladium was 0.6 per cent higher at $1,403.50 an ounce after rising to an all-time high of $1,434.50 overnight.

Demand has recently outstripped supply for the metal, used in emissions-reducing catalytic converters for cars. Palladium also appeared to get a boost from hopes for further government stimulus in China, the world`s biggest auto market.&nbsp;

Spot gold was steady at $1,291.56 an ounce, having relinquished its spot as the most expensive precious metal to palladium early in December.

Asian stocks advanced on Friday as a report of progress in US-China trade talks stirred hopes of a deal in their tariff dispute and supported risk sentiment. The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discussed lifting some or all tariffs imposed on Chinese imports and suggested offering a tariff rollback during trade discussions scheduled for January 30.

Asian stocks advanced on Friday as a report of progress in US-China trade talks stirred hopes of a deal in their tariff dispute and supported risk sentiment. The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discussed lifting some or all tariffs imposed on Chinese imports and suggested offering a tariff rollback during trade discussions scheduled for January 30. US stocks rallied following the report, but pared some of those gains after a Treasury spokesperson told CNBC that Mnuchin had not made any such recommendations. WSJ also reported that US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has resisted Mnuchin`s idea. For the day, all three major US indexes were up, led by a surge in industrial stocks. Even the whiff of progress in the months-long Sino-U.S. trade war helped boost risk sentiment. MSCI`s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.7 per cent. The index has gained 1.4 per cent this week. The Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.8 per cent. Australian stocks rose 0.5 per cent, as did South Korea`s KOSPI while Japan`s Nikkei gained more than 1 per cent to a one-month high. "As with 2018, the U.S.-China trade row remains a key market theme in 2019. A slight difference is that there are some signs that the two sides are seeking some sort of a resolution," said Soichiro Monji, senior economist at Daiwa SB Investments in Tokyo. "China seems to be running low on options, while the United States would also want to avoid a prolonged conflict given the negative consequences on its markets and the economy," Monji said. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit the United States on January 30 and 31 for the latest round of trade talks aimed at resolving the dispute between the world`s two largest economies. In December, Washington and Beijing agreed to a 90-day truce in a trade war that has disrupted the flow of hundreds of billions of dollars of goods. Indicators released recently have shown signs that the Chinese economy is losing some momentum. China`s fourth-quarter economic growth, due to be reported on Monday, likely slowed to the weakest pace since the global financial crisis, a Reuters poll showed, as demand faltered at home and abroad. The dollar was mildly supported after US Treasury yields rose amid the improvement in risk appetite in the broader markets. The greenback was a shade higher at 109.320 yen after popping up to a two-week high of 109.40 overnight. The dollar has gained about 0.7 per cent against the Japanese currency this week. The euro was little changed at $1.1393 after dipping slightly overnight. The common currency was on track for a weekly loss of 0.7 per cent. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 2.750 per cent after going brushing 2.761 per cent the previous day, its highest in three weeks. The pound traded at $1.2978, hovering close to a two-month peak of $1.3001 scaled overnight on the back of hopes that Britain can avoid a no-deal Brexit. British Prime Minister Theresa May`s Brexit deal suffered a heavy defeat in parliament this week but she survived a subsequent vote of confidence, removing some political uncertainty for now. US crude oil futures extended gains after rising the previous day on a bounce in Wall Street and news that OPEC sharply curtailed production in December. US crude futures added 1 per cent to $52.61 per barrel. The contracts have gained more than 2 per cent this week. Brent crude was up 0.8 per cent at $61.67 per barrel and on track to gain 2 per cent on the week. Elsewhere in commodities, palladium was 0.6 per cent higher at $1,403.50 an ounce after rising to an all-time high of $1,434.50 overnight. Demand has recently outstripped supply for the metal, used in emissions-reducing catalytic converters for cars. Palladium also appeared to get a boost from hopes for further government stimulus in China, the world`s biggest auto market. Spot gold was steady at $1,291.56 an ounce, having relinquished its spot as the most expensive precious metal to palladium early in December.

Global Markets: Asia stocks advance on US-China trade relief

By Christopher Dent

The clock is ticking for China and the US to resolve their trade dispute. Some progress was made at the last round of talks (January 7-9) but negotiators must find a comprehensive agreement by March 2.&nbsp;

If they fail, the US government plans to raise tariffs from 10 per cent to 25 per cent on $200 billion of Chinese imports. This would have an enormous impact not just on US-China bilateral trade but also on many other countries due to global supply chain linkages.

The US president, Donald Trump, wishes to adjust the “terms of trade” between both countries, addressing what he alleges are China’s “unfair” trading practices. Many observers believe this is a battle not just about trade but also about economic and technological supremacy.

The Trump administration accuses China of stealing technology from American companies. It has also been critical of the Chinese government’s strategic plans to make the country a world leader in industry sectors such as aerospace, renewable energy, robotics and electric vehicles. The recent successful landing of a Chinese spacecraft on the Moon would have caused further consternation among Americans fearful of China’s new technological capacities.

The US says it wants China to become a free market economy and ditch its state management approach. Ironically, the credibility of America’s position on this matter is undermined by Trump’s own protectionist stance on trade, which itself constitutes significant state intervention in the marketplace.

But, despite their political and economic differences, the reality is that the US and China’s economies are deeply interconnected through various layers of commercial, financial and production links. The two are so entwined that they have been dubbed a symbiotic “Chimerica” economy.

Economic interdependence

US-China economic interdependence has to be carefully managed and many companies are critical of the Trump administration’s decision to raise tariffs. They rightly warn that aggressive US actions against China will ultimately harm American firms, workers and consumers. What’s more, the world’s two largest national economies lie at the core of an ever more integrated global economy. Any significant disruption to their relationship will have major ramifications for businesses worldwide.

From his actions and tweeted thinking to date, it appears that Trump is failing to acknowledge the extent of US-China economic interdependence, or is choosing to ignore it. While the US trade deficit of $336 billion with China in 2017 is at some level a cause for concern, China recycles much of its surplus back through buying US government securities.

Taking the car industry as an example, we can reasonably assume that Trump wishes to see more cars made by Ford, General Motors and other American firms in the US, which get sold both at home and in foreign markets. Ideally, in Trump’s view, they would also be sourcing materials and parts from US-based companies, thus overall generating more jobs and prosperity for Americans. But this cannot be sustainably achieved through protectionist trade measures.

Trump’s adoption of a defensive economic nationalist position and a simplistic “imports bad, exports good” mindset chimes with a 19th-century view of the world economy. Then it was the norm for companies to organise production in one nation and simply export from it. Today, technological advances mean companies increasingly organise their production across nations, mainly for reasons of cost efficiency, making goods cheaper to buy and providing wider consumer choice. In many of the world’s major industries, it makes no economic sense today to do otherwise.

Competitive advantage

For companies, the ultimate arbiter of success is the consumer. The fundamental reason why the sales of American car manufacturers have fallen over the years – both at home and in export markets – is not due to “unfair” trade practices but because they lack competitiveness. The same logic applies to other industries.

Sales of foreign cars in Japan illustrates this. While the Japanese car market is hard for foreign firms to penetrate, Japan does not apply import tariffs in this sector. So both European and US firms face the same challenges in satisfying the discerning Japanese consumer.

From 2013 to 2016, Japan’s imports of US cars fell from 23,381 to 19,933, whereas imports of European vehicles increased from 239,090 to 251,155. If Trump wishes American car makers to expand production and exports, they need to produce more competitive and desirable products.

Sometimes, this is extraordinarily difficult to achieve in industries experiencing deep structural decline, such as the US steel sector. There are, of course, many other sectors where American firms have developed a competitive advantage over their foreign rivals, such as cinema and television shows, popular culture, financial services and university education.

Higher tariffs on US imports of goods from China and other countries will in most cases be passed on as higher prices to American consumers, raising inflation and, in turn, interest rates. One of the ironies of imposing import tariffs on goods from China is that a high volume of these will come from US companies such as Apple and Dell, which assemble their products cost competitively in China, then export them to US consumers. Trump calls for these firms to relocate their production back to the US, but comparatively much higher labour and other costs would lead to higher prices for consumers and inflation.

It is time for the US president to end his short-sighted and self-harming trade policies, and fully appreciate the inter-connected nature of the 21st-century global economy and society. The future health of the global economy depends on a good working partnership between the US and China. Both countries must quickly end this trade war and focus instead on establishing more harmonious relations – for all our sakes.

(Christopher Dent is Senior Lecturer, Edge Hill University)

(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-there-will-be-no-winners-from-the-us-china-trade-war-109822">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

&nbsp;

By Christopher Dent The clock is ticking for China and the US to resolve their trade dispute. Some progress was made at the last round of talks (January 7-9) but negotiators must find a comprehensive agreement by March 2.

By Christopher Dent The clock is ticking for China and the US to resolve their trade dispute. Some progress was made at the last round of talks (January 7-9) but negotiators must find a comprehensive agreement by March 2. If they fail, the US government plans to raise tariffs from 10 per cent to 25 per cent on $200 billion of Chinese imports. This would have an enormous impact not just on US-China bilateral trade but also on many other countries due to global supply chain linkages. The US president, Donald Trump, wishes to adjust the “terms of trade” between both countries, addressing what he alleges are China’s “unfair” trading practices. Many observers believe this is a battle not just about trade but also about economic and technological supremacy. The Trump administration accuses China of stealing technology from American companies. It has also been critical of the Chinese government’s strategic plans to make the country a world leader in industry sectors such as aerospace, renewable energy, robotics and electric vehicles. The recent successful landing of a Chinese spacecraft on the Moon would have caused further consternation among Americans fearful of China’s new technological capacities. The US says it wants China to become a free market economy and ditch its state management approach. Ironically, the credibility of America’s position on this matter is undermined by Trump’s own protectionist stance on trade, which itself constitutes significant state intervention in the marketplace. But, despite their political and economic differences, the reality is that the US and China’s economies are deeply interconnected through various layers of commercial, financial and production links. The two are so entwined that they have been dubbed a symbiotic “Chimerica” economy. Economic interdependence US-China economic interdependence has to be carefully managed and many companies are critical of the Trump administration’s decision to raise tariffs. They rightly warn that aggressive US actions against China will ultimately harm American firms, workers and consumers. What’s more, the world’s two largest national economies lie at the core of an ever more integrated global economy. Any significant disruption to their relationship will have major ramifications for businesses worldwide. From his actions and tweeted thinking to date, it appears that Trump is failing to acknowledge the extent of US-China economic interdependence, or is choosing to ignore it. While the US trade deficit of $336 billion with China in 2017 is at some level a cause for concern, China recycles much of its surplus back through buying US government securities. Taking the car industry as an example, we can reasonably assume that Trump wishes to see more cars made by Ford, General Motors and other American firms in the US, which get sold both at home and in foreign markets. Ideally, in Trump’s view, they would also be sourcing materials and parts from US-based companies, thus overall generating more jobs and prosperity for Americans. But this cannot be sustainably achieved through protectionist trade measures. Trump’s adoption of a defensive economic nationalist position and a simplistic “imports bad, exports good” mindset chimes with a 19th-century view of the world economy. Then it was the norm for companies to organise production in one nation and simply export from it. Today, technological advances mean companies increasingly organise their production across nations, mainly for reasons of cost efficiency, making goods cheaper to buy and providing wider consumer choice. In many of the world’s major industries, it makes no economic sense today to do otherwise. Competitive advantage For companies, the ultimate arbiter of success is the consumer. The fundamental reason why the sales of American car manufacturers have fallen over the years – both at home and in export markets – is not due to “unfair” trade practices but because they lack competitiveness. The same logic applies to other industries. Sales of foreign cars in Japan illustrates this. While the Japanese car market is hard for foreign firms to penetrate, Japan does not apply import tariffs in this sector. So both European and US firms face the same challenges in satisfying the discerning Japanese consumer. From 2013 to 2016, Japan’s imports of US cars fell from 23,381 to 19,933, whereas imports of European vehicles increased from 239,090 to 251,155. If Trump wishes American car makers to expand production and exports, they need to produce more competitive and desirable products. Sometimes, this is extraordinarily difficult to achieve in industries experiencing deep structural decline, such as the US steel sector. There are, of course, many other sectors where American firms have developed a competitive advantage over their foreign rivals, such as cinema and television shows, popular culture, financial services and university education. Higher tariffs on US imports of goods from China and other countries will in most cases be passed on as higher prices to American consumers, raising inflation and, in turn, interest rates. One of the ironies of imposing import tariffs on goods from China is that a high volume of these will come from US companies such as Apple and Dell, which assemble their products cost competitively in China, then export them to US consumers. Trump calls for these firms to relocate their production back to the US, but comparatively much higher labour and other costs would lead to higher prices for consumers and inflation. It is time for the US president to end his short-sighted and self-harming trade policies, and fully appreciate the inter-connected nature of the 21st-century global economy and society. The future health of the global economy depends on a good working partnership between the US and China. Both countries must quickly end this trade war and focus instead on establishing more harmonious relations – for all our sakes. (Christopher Dent is Senior Lecturer, Edge Hill University) (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Why there will be no winners from the US-China trade war

President Donald Trump said Monday he expects to be able to reach a trade deal with China, which is feeling the impact of US tariffs.

"We are doing very well with China. They're having a hard with their economy because of the tariffs," Trump told reporters at the White House.&nbsp;

"I think that we are going to be able to do a deal with China."&nbsp;

US officials were in Beijing last week for talks aimed at ending the bruising trade confrontation that has subjected more than $350 billion in two-way trade to steep tariffs.

Chinese officials said the next round of negotiations would be held in Washington between January 30 and 31.

Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed on December 1 to a three-month truce in the escalating spat.

"I can tell you we are getting things that before I became president you would have had no chance at getting," Trump said. "They would have laughed in your president's face."

As Trump has pressed Beijing to increase imports of US goods, China's trade surplus with the United States hit a record last year of $323.3 billion, an 11 per cent increase over 2017, according to Chinese customs data released Monday.

However, in a sign that the White House's punitive measures are having an impact, China's exports to the US sank last month.&nbsp;

And China's total exports fell 4.4 per cent in December from a year earlier, while imports dropped 7.6 per cent, reflecting sluggish demand at home and abroad.

President Donald Trump said Monday he expects to be able to reach a trade deal with China, which is feeling the impact of US tariffs. "We are doing very well with China.

President Donald Trump said Monday he expects to be able to reach a trade deal with China, which is feeling the impact of US tariffs. "We are doing very well with China. They're having a hard with their economy because of the tariffs," Trump told reporters at the White House. "I think that we are going to be able to do a deal with China." US officials were in Beijing last week for talks aimed at ending the bruising trade confrontation that has subjected more than $350 billion in two-way trade to steep tariffs. Chinese officials said the next round of negotiations would be held in Washington between January 30 and 31. Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed on December 1 to a three-month truce in the escalating spat. "I can tell you we are getting things that before I became president you would have had no chance at getting," Trump said. "They would have laughed in your president's face." As Trump has pressed Beijing to increase imports of US goods, China's trade surplus with the United States hit a record last year of $323.3 billion, an 11 per cent increase over 2017, according to Chinese customs data released Monday. However, in a sign that the White House's punitive measures are having an impact, China's exports to the US sank last month. And China's total exports fell 4.4 per cent in December from a year earlier, while imports dropped 7.6 per cent, reflecting sluggish demand at home and abroad.

I think we are going to be able to do trade deal with China: Trump

The Trump administration said today that <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/china-condemns-us-south-china-sea-freedom-navigation-operation-168987">a naval destroyer sailed in </a><a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/china-condemns-us-south-china-sea-freedom-navigation-operation-168987">South</a><a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/china-condemns-us-south-china-sea-freedom-navigation-operation-168987"> China Sea</a> to challenge what it claimed "excessive maritime claims".

China claims islands on the South China sea even though Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan have repeatedly said it belongs to them.

The USS McCampbell carried out a "freedom of navigation" operation, sailing within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Island chain, "to challenge excessive maritime claims", Pacific Fleet spokeswoman Rachel McMarr said.

The destroyer sailed near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea which is claimed by China.

The operation was not about any one country or to make a political statement, McMarr added.&nbsp;

US vice-president Mike Pence had said earlier that South China Sea does not belong to any one nation and the United States will continue to sail and fly wherever international law allows

China had said last year that it was in talks on conducting a code of conduct doctrine with other nations in the disputed South China Sea which was agreed upon at the &nbsp;10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

China said the consultation and final agreement process would take three years.

The US had said it is against "militarisation of the South China Sea. The US had earlier sent a naval destroyer USS Decatur near the disputed islands, a move which was condemned by China.

China's foreign ministry has of claimed "irrefutable sovereignty" over the South China Sea islands and the waters around them. Three years ago the international court in The Hague had ruled that China does not have legal rights to several islands in the South China Sea.

The Chinese president Xi Jinping&nbsp;had rejected the international court's verdict bluntly declaring that the country wouldn't accept "any claim or action based on those awards". China's ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, had said the tribunal lacked "professional incompetence" and had "questionable integrity".

In September last year, the US had flown B-52 bombers over the South China Sea and the East China Sea which was described as "provocative" by the Chinese defence ministry.

The Trump administration said today that a naval destroyer sailed in South China Sea to challenge what it claimed "excessive maritime claims". China claims islands on the South China sea even though Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan have repeatedly said it belongs to them.

The Trump administration said today that a naval destroyer sailed in South China Sea to challenge what it claimed "excessive maritime claims". China claims islands on the South China sea even though Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan have repeatedly said it belongs to them. The USS McCampbell carried out a "freedom of navigation" operation, sailing within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Island chain, "to challenge excessive maritime claims", Pacific Fleet spokeswoman Rachel McMarr said. The destroyer sailed near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea which is claimed by China. The operation was not about any one country or to make a political statement, McMarr added. US vice-president Mike Pence had said earlier that South China Sea does not belong to any one nation and the United States will continue to sail and fly wherever international law allows China had said last year that it was in talks on conducting a code of conduct doctrine with other nations in the disputed South China Sea which was agreed upon at the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). China said the consultation and final agreement process would take three years. The US had said it is against "militarisation of the South China Sea. The US had earlier sent a naval destroyer USS Decatur near the disputed islands, a move which was condemned by China. China's foreign ministry has of claimed "irrefutable sovereignty" over the South China Sea islands and the waters around them. Three years ago the international court in The Hague had ruled that China does not have legal rights to several islands in the South China Sea. The Chinese president Xi Jinping had rejected the international court's verdict bluntly declaring that the country wouldn't accept "any claim or action based on those awards". China's ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, had said the tribunal lacked "professional incompetence" and had "questionable integrity". In September last year, the US had flown B-52 bombers over the South China Sea and the East China Sea which was described as "provocative" by the Chinese defence ministry.

Naval destroyer sailed through South China Sea to ensure freedom of navigation: US

China and the United States want to work together on trade, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Monday, as the world's two largest economies resumed talks in a bid to end their trade dispute.

US&nbsp;officials are meeting their counterparts in Beijing this week for the first face-to-face talks since US&nbsp;President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping agreed in December agreed to a 90-day truce in a trade war that has roiled international markets.

Trump said on Sunday that trade talks with China were going very well and that weakness in the Chinese economy gave Beijing a reason to work toward a deal.

The two sides agreed to hold "positive and constructive" talks and dialogue to resolve economic and trade disputes in accordance with the consensus reached by the countries' leaders, Lu Kang, a spokesman at the foreign ministry, told reporters.

"From the beginning, we have believed that China-US&nbsp;trade friction is not a positive situation for either country or the world economy. China has a good faith, on the basis of mutual respect and equality, to resolve the bilateral trade frictions," Lu said.

Trump imposed import tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods last year and has threatened more to pressure Beijing to change its practices on issues ranging from industrial subsidies to intellectual property to hacking. China retaliated with tariffs of its own.

"As for whether the Chinese economy is good or not, I have already explained this. China's development has ample tenacity and huge potential," Lu said. "We have firm confidence in the strong long-term fundamentals of the Chinese economy."

China and the United States want to work together on trade, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Monday, as the world's two largest economies resumed talks in a bid to end their trade dispute.

China and the United States want to work together on trade, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Monday, as the world's two largest economies resumed talks in a bid to end their trade dispute. US officials are meeting their counterparts in Beijing this week for the first face-to-face talks since US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping agreed in December agreed to a 90-day truce in a trade war that has roiled international markets. Trump said on Sunday that trade talks with China were going very well and that weakness in the Chinese economy gave Beijing a reason to work toward a deal. The two sides agreed to hold "positive and constructive" talks and dialogue to resolve economic and trade disputes in accordance with the consensus reached by the countries' leaders, Lu Kang, a spokesman at the foreign ministry, told reporters. "From the beginning, we have believed that China-US trade friction is not a positive situation for either country or the world economy. China has a good faith, on the basis of mutual respect and equality, to resolve the bilateral trade frictions," Lu said. Trump imposed import tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods last year and has threatened more to pressure Beijing to change its practices on issues ranging from industrial subsidies to intellectual property to hacking. China retaliated with tariffs of its own. "As for whether the Chinese economy is good or not, I have already explained this. China's development has ample tenacity and huge potential," Lu said. "We have firm confidence in the strong long-term fundamentals of the Chinese economy."

Want to work together with US on trade: China foreign ministry

The China travel advisory issued by the <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/us-govt-delegation-to-visit-china-for-trade-talks-188148">United States does not hold water</a>, said a spokesman of China's ministry of foreign affairs on Friday.

The spokesman, Lu Kang, made the remarks when commenting on the renewed travel advisory by the US&nbsp;State Department earlier on Thursday. The advisory says that US&nbsp;citizens must exercise caution against China's use of "exit ban" that would prohibit US&nbsp;citizens from leaving China.

Lu said that China always welcomes foreign citizens, including those of the United States, to visit China and protects by law their safety and legitimate rights and interests in China, including the freedom of entry and exit.

"We hope that foreign citizens in China respect and abide by Chinese laws," Lu said.

"Here, I would like to point out that, China's judicial organs have always adhered to justice and law in handling cases involving foreign citizens suspected of law violations and crimes and protect them by law all their legitimate rights and interests. The travel advisory issued by the United States, frankly speaking, does not hold water. The number of US&nbsp;citizens coming to China in the first 11 months of this year reached 2.30 million, averaging 70 per 10,000, far more than Chinese visiting the United States. The figures are somehow convincing as to whether it is safe or not in China," Lu said.

Lu said:"The United States has, in recent years, by crook or by hook, set up obstacles to the entry of Chinese citizens and conduct unwarranted inspections. This is what the United States should pay attention to and correct. We hope that the United States would do more things that are conducive to the exchange and mutual trust between the people of the two countries but not the opposite."

The China travel advisory issued by the United States does not hold water, said a spokesman of China's ministry of foreign affairs on Friday. The spokesman, Lu Kang, made the remarks when commenting on the renewed travel advisory by the US State Department earlier on Thursday.

The China travel advisory issued by the United States does not hold water, said a spokesman of China's ministry of foreign affairs on Friday. The spokesman, Lu Kang, made the remarks when commenting on the renewed travel advisory by the US State Department earlier on Thursday. The advisory says that US citizens must exercise caution against China's use of "exit ban" that would prohibit US citizens from leaving China. Lu said that China always welcomes foreign citizens, including those of the United States, to visit China and protects by law their safety and legitimate rights and interests in China, including the freedom of entry and exit. "We hope that foreign citizens in China respect and abide by Chinese laws," Lu said. "Here, I would like to point out that, China's judicial organs have always adhered to justice and law in handling cases involving foreign citizens suspected of law violations and crimes and protect them by law all their legitimate rights and interests. The travel advisory issued by the United States, frankly speaking, does not hold water. The number of US citizens coming to China in the first 11 months of this year reached 2.30 million, averaging 70 per 10,000, far more than Chinese visiting the United States. The figures are somehow convincing as to whether it is safe or not in China," Lu said. Lu said:"The United States has, in recent years, by crook or by hook, set up obstacles to the entry of Chinese citizens and conduct unwarranted inspections. This is what the United States should pay attention to and correct. We hope that the United States would do more things that are conducive to the exchange and mutual trust between the people of the two countries but not the opposite."

Travel advisory issued by US does not hold water: China

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/after-jim-mattis-patrick-shanahan-takes-pentagon-helm-at-critical-time-187442">Lu Kang said on Thursday&nbsp;that Beijing</a> values the current relations between the American and Chinese militaries, after acting US secretary of defence Patrick Shanahan reportedly told civilian leaders of the US military to focus on "China, China, China".

Speaking at a regular news conference in Beijing, Lu cast doubt on the validity of the reported comments by Shanahan before adding that the future of the two countries' military relations was for Beijing and Washington to decide.

"If what we mutually seek is a partner, then we will likely get a partner. If what we seek is an adversary, then we will certainly get an adversary," Lu said when asked about Shanahan's remarks.

Relations between the world's two largest economies have plumbed new depths under US President Donald Trump, with a trade war and disagreements over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

"In principle, all I want to say is that, for China, what we are pursuing is a national defence policy based on defence. We also prioritise developing cooperation between our armed forces and those of other countries, including America's," the foreign ministry spokesman said, adding, "We believe that this is conducive to promoting mutual trust and peace, enhancing relations between the two countries and contributing to world peace and stability.

"During the process of communications, the clear information that we have obtained from the US, is that the US - similar to China - highly prioritises the relations between the two militaries and hopes to work towards turning the relationship between the two militaries into a stable element of the relations between our two countries," Lu added.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said on Thursday that Beijing values the current relations between the American and Chinese militaries, after acting US secretary of defence Patrick Shanahan reportedly told civilian leaders of the US military to focus on "China, China, China".

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said on Thursday that Beijing values the current relations between the American and Chinese militaries, after acting US secretary of defence Patrick Shanahan reportedly told civilian leaders of the US military to focus on "China, China, China". Speaking at a regular news conference in Beijing, Lu cast doubt on the validity of the reported comments by Shanahan before adding that the future of the two countries' military relations was for Beijing and Washington to decide. "If what we mutually seek is a partner, then we will likely get a partner. If what we seek is an adversary, then we will certainly get an adversary," Lu said when asked about Shanahan's remarks. Relations between the world's two largest economies have plumbed new depths under US President Donald Trump, with a trade war and disagreements over Taiwan and the South China Sea. "In principle, all I want to say is that, for China, what we are pursuing is a national defence policy based on defence. We also prioritise developing cooperation between our armed forces and those of other countries, including America's," the foreign ministry spokesman said, adding, "We believe that this is conducive to promoting mutual trust and peace, enhancing relations between the two countries and contributing to world peace and stability. "During the process of communications, the clear information that we have obtained from the US, is that the US - similar to China - highly prioritises the relations between the two militaries and hopes to work towards turning the relationship between the two militaries into a stable element of the relations between our two countries," Lu added.

Watch: After Shanahan's dig, China says pursuing policy based on defence

Beijing on Friday accused Washington of<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/us-indicts-two-chinese-hackers-for-targeting-companies-in-12-countries-185573"> 'fabricating facts' after the US</a> Justice Department indicted two hackers tied to Chinese security services who allegedly targeted companies and agencies in a dozen countries.

We urge the US to "stop smearing the Chinese side on cyber security issues," China's foreign ministry said in a statement, adding that it had lodged an official protest.

China said the US should drop the prosecution "to avoid serious damage to the relations between the two countries".

While making the announcement on hacking, the US Justice Department had said the hackers had targeted managed service providers (MSPs) in several countries. However, it did not name the companies or the countries hit by hacking.

The department said several US agencies were hit including the NASA Goddard Space Center and Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and the US Navy.

China, however, denied the US indictment asking it to drop the charges.

"US should drop the prosecution to avoid serious damage to the relations between the two countries," the foreign ministry said.

In an announcement earlier, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein had said: "It is unacceptable that we continue to uncover cybercrime committed by China against America and other nations. That was a commitment they made to members of the international community to the United States to the G 20 and to OPEC," he said, adding, "we want China to cease its illegal cyber activities and honour&nbsp;its commitment to the international community.

The two men identified were Zhu Hua and Zhang Jianguo. They allegedly stole intellectual property and confidential business and technological data, according to the Justice department.

The Justice Department said the two hackers worked for a group called "APT10"&nbsp;which it said was backed by China's ministry of state security.

"We also worked with our counterparts in the NCIS to investigate APT theft of personally identifiable information from more than one hundred thousand US naval service members. We are deeply concerned about American innovation ending up in the wrong hands," FBI director Christopher Wray added.

Britian, a key US ally also sided with the US indictment insisting that the hacking went against the "commitments made to the UK in 2015, and, as part of the G20, not to conduct or support cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property or trade secrets."

Beijing on Friday accused Washington of 'fabricating facts' after the US Justice Department indicted two hackers tied to Chinese security services who allegedly targeted companies and agencies in a dozen countries.

Beijing on Friday accused Washington of 'fabricating facts' after the US Justice Department indicted two hackers tied to Chinese security services who allegedly targeted companies and agencies in a dozen countries. We urge the US to "stop smearing the Chinese side on cyber security issues," China's foreign ministry said in a statement, adding that it had lodged an official protest. China said the US should drop the prosecution "to avoid serious damage to the relations between the two countries". While making the announcement on hacking, the US Justice Department had said the hackers had targeted managed service providers (MSPs) in several countries. However, it did not name the companies or the countries hit by hacking. The department said several US agencies were hit including the NASA Goddard Space Center and Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and the US Navy. China, however, denied the US indictment asking it to drop the charges. "US should drop the prosecution to avoid serious damage to the relations between the two countries," the foreign ministry said. In an announcement earlier, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein had said: "It is unacceptable that we continue to uncover cybercrime committed by China against America and other nations. That was a commitment they made to members of the international community to the United States to the G 20 and to OPEC," he said, adding, "we want China to cease its illegal cyber activities and honour its commitment to the international community. The two men identified were Zhu Hua and Zhang Jianguo. They allegedly stole intellectual property and confidential business and technological data, according to the Justice department. The Justice Department said the two hackers worked for a group called "APT10" which it said was backed by China's ministry of state security. "We also worked with our counterparts in the NCIS to investigate APT theft of personally identifiable information from more than one hundred thousand US naval service members. We are deeply concerned about American innovation ending up in the wrong hands," FBI director Christopher Wray added. Britian, a key US ally also sided with the US indictment insisting that the hacking went against the "commitments made to the UK in 2015, and, as part of the G20, not to conduct or support cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property or trade secrets."

US fabricating facts on hacking, should stop smearing China on cyber security: Foreign ministry

Asian markets mostly rose Monday as traders look ahead to a key meeting of the Federal Reserve, and a Chinese policy-setting conference this week.

However, there is still caution on trading floors after Friday's sharp sell-off fuelled by concerns over China's economy, and despite a tweet from Donald Trump suggesting a trade deal could be hammered out between Washington and Beijing.

While there are signs the world's top two economies are beginning to move towards a resolution in their bitter tariffs spat, there are increasing concerns about the global outlook following another dour set of indicators out of China.

A string of below-par readings this year have highlighted a slowdown in the Asian giant and observers are forecasting leaders will unveil fresh measures to pep up the economy, which is on course for another year of relatively weak growth.

A speech from President Xi Jinping to mark 40 years since China's economy began opening up will be closely followed Tuesday, and that is expected to be followed by a start of a conference setting out the country's 2019 economic plan.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;

"We should expect a raft of stimulus measures from China policymakers in an attempt to stabilise the domestic economy," said Stephen Innes, head of Asia-Pacific trade at OANDA.

The Fed will conclude its rate-setting policy meeting Wednesday and while expectations are for another hike in borrowing costs, comments from chairman Jerome Powell will be closely watched for an idea of its plans for 2019.

In light of the China-US trade row and signs of weakness in the global economy, the bank has sounded a little more dovish in recent weeks, fuelling speculation it will slow down its pace of rate hikes -- which has provided some much-needed support to equities.

"The upcoming (Fed) meeting and China's policy-setting meeting, have been the most actively discussed topics around the markets," Innes added.&nbsp; 
"And both events have a smoothing effect on risk sentiment."&nbsp;

In early business, Hong rose 0.2 per cent, Shanghai edged up 0.1 per cent and Tokyo finished the morning 0.8 per cent higher while Sydney put on 0.5 per cent and Singapore jumped 1.3 per cent.

Seoul added 0.2 per cent and Taipei gained 0.3 per cent but Wellington lost 0.3 per cent.

Steve Goldman, fund manager at Kapstream Capital, told Bloomberg TV in Sydney that "we're going to see a lot of volatility" in the new year because of global uncertainty.

Hopes that China and the US can reach a deal to end their trade war were given a boost by Trump Friday, when he tweeted: "China wants to make a big and very comprehensive deal. It could happen, and rather soon!"&nbsp;

That came after China earlier in the day backed off fresh levies imposed this summer on US-made cars and auto parts.

While a full-blown deal is some way off, the developments have provided some hope to dealers.

On currency markets the pound remains bogged down around 20-month lows as Prime Minister Theresa May struggles to win concessions from EU leaders over her

Brexit agreement, which a majority of lawmakers in Westminster oppose.

Facing growing calls for another referendum to break the deadlock, May is expected to tell MPs that such a move will do "irreparable damage" to British politics.

However, with her agreement all but dead in the water, there is a growing expectation Britain will leave the EU without a deal, which commentators warn could hammer the British economy.

Asian markets mostly rose Monday as traders look ahead to a key meeting of the Federal Reserve, and a Chinese policy-setting conference this week. However, there is still caution on trading floors after Friday's sharp sell-off fuelled by concerns over China's economy, and despite a tweet from Donald Trump suggesting a trade deal could be hammered out between Washington and Beijing.

Asian markets mostly rose Monday as traders look ahead to a key meeting of the Federal Reserve, and a Chinese policy-setting conference this week. However, there is still caution on trading floors after Friday's sharp sell-off fuelled by concerns over China's economy, and despite a tweet from Donald Trump suggesting a trade deal could be hammered out between Washington and Beijing. While there are signs the world's top two economies are beginning to move towards a resolution in their bitter tariffs spat, there are increasing concerns about the global outlook following another dour set of indicators out of China. A string of below-par readings this year have highlighted a slowdown in the Asian giant and observers are forecasting leaders will unveil fresh measures to pep up the economy, which is on course for another year of relatively weak growth. A speech from President Xi Jinping to mark 40 years since China's economy began opening up will be closely followed Tuesday, and that is expected to be followed by a start of a conference setting out the country's 2019 economic plan. "We should expect a raft of stimulus measures from China policymakers in an attempt to stabilise the domestic economy," said Stephen Innes, head of Asia-Pacific trade at OANDA. The Fed will conclude its rate-setting policy meeting Wednesday and while expectations are for another hike in borrowing costs, comments from chairman Jerome Powell will be closely watched for an idea of its plans for 2019. In light of the China-US trade row and signs of weakness in the global economy, the bank has sounded a little more dovish in recent weeks, fuelling speculation it will slow down its pace of rate hikes -- which has provided some much-needed support to equities. "The upcoming (Fed) meeting and China's policy-setting meeting, have been the most actively discussed topics around the markets," Innes added. "And both events have a smoothing effect on risk sentiment." In early business, Hong rose 0.2 per cent, Shanghai edged up 0.1 per cent and Tokyo finished the morning 0.8 per cent higher while Sydney put on 0.5 per cent and Singapore jumped 1.3 per cent. Seoul added 0.2 per cent and Taipei gained 0.3 per cent but Wellington lost 0.3 per cent. Steve Goldman, fund manager at Kapstream Capital, told Bloomberg TV in Sydney that "we're going to see a lot of volatility" in the new year because of global uncertainty. Hopes that China and the US can reach a deal to end their trade war were given a boost by Trump Friday, when he tweeted: "China wants to make a big and very comprehensive deal. It could happen, and rather soon!" That came after China earlier in the day backed off fresh levies imposed this summer on US-made cars and auto parts. While a full-blown deal is some way off, the developments have provided some hope to dealers. On currency markets the pound remains bogged down around 20-month lows as Prime Minister Theresa May struggles to win concessions from EU leaders over her Brexit agreement, which a majority of lawmakers in Westminster oppose. Facing growing calls for another referendum to break the deadlock, May is expected to tell MPs that such a move will do "irreparable damage" to British politics. However, with her agreement all but dead in the water, there is a growing expectation Britain will leave the EU without a deal, which commentators warn could hammer the British economy.

Asian markets mostly up ahead of key meetings in China and US

By John J Stremlau

US President Donald Trump has finally approved a “New Africa Strategy”. His national security adviser, John Bolton, described the contents on December 13 at the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington. He began positively, declaring that, "Lasting stability, prosperity, independence and security on the African continent are in the national security interest of the United States."

But he then went on to ignore Africa’s own efforts to address these broad challenges, including its multilateral initiatives. Instead, Bolton’s announcement was replete with rhetoric reminiscent of the Cold War.

The new strategy makes one thing clear: What really matters to Trump is not Africa but containing and countering China.

The reaction from an African perspective is likely bemusement rather than surprise. Trump has shown little interest or empathy towards Africa. And much enmity toward China. His Africa strategy ignores two decades of complex – but generally positive – reactions across sub-Saharan Africa to China becoming the region’s biggest trading partner and a major source of aid and investment.

Previous US administrations generally welcomed Chinese engagement in Africa. Bolton, however, alleged that " China uses bribes, opaque agreements, and the strategic use of debt to hold states in Africa captive to Beijing’s wishes and demands."

But does it need to be this way? I would argue not. Africa offers China and America an opportunity to demonstrate to the world – and to each other – that their competition can be constructive with Africa playing a moderating influence by brokering an agreed trilateral agenda.

We need to explore ways to advance cooperation between Africa, China and the US as a confidence-building measure in relations between the US and China. This would obviously need to be designed for the primary benefit of African partners.

Testing trilateralism

Collaborative projects that involve the US and China, with Africa in the forefront, have been the focus of a Carter Centre project since 2014. The centre’s many successful programs in Africa, especially public health, have generated high-level trilateral policy interest. Since the Trump administration took over, these conversations have excluded his senior advisors. Nevertheless, work has continued. This has included recent developments which suggest headway is being made.

In early December the South African Institute of International Affairs hosted the troika that leads this project. The troika was represented by Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopia’s former and longest-serving foreign minister, an ambassador to China, and regional mediator in Sudan; Zhong Jianhua, formerly China’s Special Representative on African affairs and to the Sudan conflicts; and Donald Booth, a former US ambassador to Liberia, Zambia, Ethiopia and special envoy to Sudan/South Sudan.

Three dozen African, Chinese and US scholars, as well as policy experts, contributed their analyses of previous and possible future areas for trilateral cooperation. They drew on some recent examples. These included efforts to combat piracy off the Horn of Africa and Gulf of Guinea as well as jointly developing a university campus in Liberia. Other projects have involved coordinated mediation between Sudan and South Sudan and mutually reinforcing actions to deal with the Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

Challenges ahead

Several priority areas for future tri-lateral cooperation were identified.

One was the recently constructed headquarters for the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in Addis Ababa. Funded by China, the next priority for trilateral cooperation is to ensure the centre is equipped to provide better early warning and response to threats like Ebola.

Another priority area is expanding economic aid, trade and investment. This could be done through trilateral projects funded under China’s “Belt and Road” initiative and the US Build Act. The act was approved in October by a large bi-partisan majority of the US Congress.

A related issue is the huge loss of vital tax revenue to African governments due to huge “illicit financial flows”. These are estimated to exceed annual inflows of foreign assistance. The project will seek ways to encourage US and China to support the work of a panel set up by African Union and United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.

Two other broad areas for potential trilateral cooperation are sustainable agriculture and energy. Two initiatives started by the Obama Administration, with the support of Congress, have become popular in Africa. These are the “Feed the Future” and “Power Africa”.

Trump has long wanted to cut both. But his negative attitude isn’t shared by the US Congress, and perhaps even key members of his administration. Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Tibor Nagy, summarised US-Africa policy before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on the same day Trump approved the new Africa strategy. Nagy’s comments reflected a different mindset. He spoke positively about the two Obama initiatives. He also didn’t seem alarmed by China’s growing presence.

At a time when many in Africa are debating how to build capable states without the undesirable aspects of either America’s “decadent” democracy or China’s “responsive” authoritarianism, engaging both should yield important insights for advancing collective self-reliance and development.

(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-africa-strategy-should-have-cast-china-as-a-regional-partner-not-a-global-adversary-108901">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

By John J Stremlau US President Donald Trump has finally approved a “New Africa Strategy”. His national security adviser, John Bolton, described the contents on December 13 at the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington.

By John J Stremlau US President Donald Trump has finally approved a “New Africa Strategy”. His national security adviser, John Bolton, described the contents on December 13 at the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington. He began positively, declaring that, "Lasting stability, prosperity, independence and security on the African continent are in the national security interest of the United States." But he then went on to ignore Africa’s own efforts to address these broad challenges, including its multilateral initiatives. Instead, Bolton’s announcement was replete with rhetoric reminiscent of the Cold War. The new strategy makes one thing clear: What really matters to Trump is not Africa but containing and countering China. The reaction from an African perspective is likely bemusement rather than surprise. Trump has shown little interest or empathy towards Africa. And much enmity toward China. His Africa strategy ignores two decades of complex – but generally positive – reactions across sub-Saharan Africa to China becoming the region’s biggest trading partner and a major source of aid and investment. Previous US administrations generally welcomed Chinese engagement in Africa. Bolton, however, alleged that " China uses bribes, opaque agreements, and the strategic use of debt to hold states in Africa captive to Beijing’s wishes and demands." But does it need to be this way? I would argue not. Africa offers China and America an opportunity to demonstrate to the world – and to each other – that their competition can be constructive with Africa playing a moderating influence by brokering an agreed trilateral agenda. We need to explore ways to advance cooperation between Africa, China and the US as a confidence-building measure in relations between the US and China. This would obviously need to be designed for the primary benefit of African partners. Testing trilateralism Collaborative projects that involve the US and China, with Africa in the forefront, have been the focus of a Carter Centre project since 2014. The centre’s many successful programs in Africa, especially public health, have generated high-level trilateral policy interest. Since the Trump administration took over, these conversations have excluded his senior advisors. Nevertheless, work has continued. This has included recent developments which suggest headway is being made. In early December the South African Institute of International Affairs hosted the troika that leads this project. The troika was represented by Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopia’s former and longest-serving foreign minister, an ambassador to China, and regional mediator in Sudan; Zhong Jianhua, formerly China’s Special Representative on African affairs and to the Sudan conflicts; and Donald Booth, a former US ambassador to Liberia, Zambia, Ethiopia and special envoy to Sudan/South Sudan. Three dozen African, Chinese and US scholars, as well as policy experts, contributed their analyses of previous and possible future areas for trilateral cooperation. They drew on some recent examples. These included efforts to combat piracy off the Horn of Africa and Gulf of Guinea as well as jointly developing a university campus in Liberia. Other projects have involved coordinated mediation between Sudan and South Sudan and mutually reinforcing actions to deal with the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. Challenges ahead Several priority areas for future tri-lateral cooperation were identified. One was the recently constructed headquarters for the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in Addis Ababa. Funded by China, the next priority for trilateral cooperation is to ensure the centre is equipped to provide better early warning and response to threats like Ebola. Another priority area is expanding economic aid, trade and investment. This could be done through trilateral projects funded under China’s “Belt and Road” initiative and the US Build Act. The act was approved in October by a large bi-partisan majority of the US Congress. A related issue is the huge loss of vital tax revenue to African governments due to huge “illicit financial flows”. These are estimated to exceed annual inflows of foreign assistance. The project will seek ways to encourage US and China to support the work of a panel set up by African Union and United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. Two other broad areas for potential trilateral cooperation are sustainable agriculture and energy. Two initiatives started by the Obama Administration, with the support of Congress, have become popular in Africa. These are the “Feed the Future” and “Power Africa”. Trump has long wanted to cut both. But his negative attitude isn’t shared by the US Congress, and perhaps even key members of his administration. Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Tibor Nagy, summarised US-Africa policy before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on the same day Trump approved the new Africa strategy. Nagy’s comments reflected a different mindset. He spoke positively about the two Obama initiatives. He also didn’t seem alarmed by China’s growing presence. At a time when many in Africa are debating how to build capable states without the undesirable aspects of either America’s “decadent” democracy or China’s “responsive” authoritarianism, engaging both should yield important insights for advancing collective self-reliance and development. (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Donald Trump’s Africa strategy should have cast China as a regional partner, not a global adversary

Canada's ambassador met in Beijing Friday with a detained former diplomat for the first time since he was arrested in China amid sharpening East-West tensions over trade and other issues.

Michael Kovrig, the former diplomat, and a second Canadian, Michael Spavor, were taken into custody earlier in the week after a <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/do-not-politicise-extradition-cases-canada-warns-us-183654">top Chinese tech executive was arrested</a> in Vancouver at the request of the United States.

Canada's foreign ministry said its ambassador to Beijing, John McCallum, was granted consular access to Kovrig and is pressing for access to Spavor. Speaking to The Canadian Press, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau predicted that access would take place "shortly."

"We are being absolutely clear on standing up for our citizens who have been detained, trying to figure out why, trying to work with China to demonstrate that this not acceptable," he told Citytv in Toronto.

Meanwhile, in Washington, Canada's foreign and defence ministers held talks with their US counterparts on the row.

The Canadians were arrested for what China has said is suspicion of "harm to national security" -- a phrase often used by Beijing when alleging espionage.

But the detentions are widely believed to be retaliation for Canada's arrest December 1 of Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Chinese telecom giant Huawei.

Meng was arrested while changing planes in Vancouver, outraging China and sparking a diplomatic standoff between the North American allies and Beijing.

"This is one of the situations you get in when the two largest economies in the world, China and the United States, start picking a fight with each other," Trudeau said.&nbsp;

"The escalating trade war between them is going to have all sorts of unintended consequences for Canada, potentially the entire global economy. We're very worried about that."

The United States has accused her of lying to bankers about the use of a covert subsidiary to sell to Iran in breach of sanctions. If convicted, she faces more than 30 years in prison.

On Tuesday, a Canadian judge ordered Meng's release on Can$10 million ($7.5 million US) bail, pending a US extradition hearing.

Visit shelved

Canadian Tourism Minister Melanie Joly, meanwhile, shelved a trip to China next week to promote tourism.

Since Beijing approved Canada as a tourist destination for its citizens in 2010, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Canada has risen by 20 percent per year to almost 700,000 in 2017.

Ottawa had hoped to double the figure by 2021, opening seven new visa application offices in China this year to facilitate the processing of travel documents. But those targets are now in doubt amid a public backlash in China.

Kovrig, who works for the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank, was being investigated by the Beijing bureau of state security, while the agency's office in northeastern Liaoning province was handling the probe into Spavor, Lu said.

Spavor is a China-based business consultant who facilitates trips to North Korea, met with its leader Kim Jong Un and arranged some of retired NBA star Dennis Rodman's trips to the country.

China's foreign ministry said ICG was not registered in China and its employees would be "in violation" of the law if they engage in activities in the country.

ICG closed its office in the Chinese capital after Beijing passed a law on NGOs, which came into force in 2017, to better control the activities on its soil of foreign organizations.

Kovrig was based in Hong Kong for ICG, working on foreign policy and security issues in the region, particularly on the Korean Peninsula.

Canada's ambassador met in Beijing Friday with a detained former diplomat for the first time since he was arrested in China amid sharpening East-West tensions over trade and other issues.

Canada's ambassador met in Beijing Friday with a detained former diplomat for the first time since he was arrested in China amid sharpening East-West tensions over trade and other issues. Michael Kovrig, the former diplomat, and a second Canadian, Michael Spavor, were taken into custody earlier in the week after a top Chinese tech executive was arrested in Vancouver at the request of the United States. Canada's foreign ministry said its ambassador to Beijing, John McCallum, was granted consular access to Kovrig and is pressing for access to Spavor. Speaking to The Canadian Press, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau predicted that access would take place "shortly." "We are being absolutely clear on standing up for our citizens who have been detained, trying to figure out why, trying to work with China to demonstrate that this not acceptable," he told Citytv in Toronto. Meanwhile, in Washington, Canada's foreign and defence ministers held talks with their US counterparts on the row. The Canadians were arrested for what China has said is suspicion of "harm to national security" -- a phrase often used by Beijing when alleging espionage. But the detentions are widely believed to be retaliation for Canada's arrest December 1 of Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Chinese telecom giant Huawei. Meng was arrested while changing planes in Vancouver, outraging China and sparking a diplomatic standoff between the North American allies and Beijing. "This is one of the situations you get in when the two largest economies in the world, China and the United States, start picking a fight with each other," Trudeau said. "The escalating trade war between them is going to have all sorts of unintended consequences for Canada, potentially the entire global economy. We're very worried about that." The United States has accused her of lying to bankers about the use of a covert subsidiary to sell to Iran in breach of sanctions. If convicted, she faces more than 30 years in prison. On Tuesday, a Canadian judge ordered Meng's release on Can$10 million ($7.5 million US) bail, pending a US extradition hearing. Visit shelved Canadian Tourism Minister Melanie Joly, meanwhile, shelved a trip to China next week to promote tourism. Since Beijing approved Canada as a tourist destination for its citizens in 2010, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Canada has risen by 20 percent per year to almost 700,000 in 2017. Ottawa had hoped to double the figure by 2021, opening seven new visa application offices in China this year to facilitate the processing of travel documents. But those targets are now in doubt amid a public backlash in China. Kovrig, who works for the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank, was being investigated by the Beijing bureau of state security, while the agency's office in northeastern Liaoning province was handling the probe into Spavor, Lu said. Spavor is a China-based business consultant who facilitates trips to North Korea, met with its leader Kim Jong Un and arranged some of retired NBA star Dennis Rodman's trips to the country. China's foreign ministry said ICG was not registered in China and its employees would be "in violation" of the law if they engage in activities in the country. ICG closed its office in the Chinese capital after Beijing passed a law on NGOs, which came into force in 2017, to better control the activities on its soil of foreign organizations. Kovrig was based in Hong Kong for ICG, working on foreign policy and security issues in the region, particularly on the Korean Peninsula.

Canada granted consular access to ex-diplomat held by China: Official

President Donald Trump on Friday predicted a major <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/trump-and-china-called-a-truce-in-the-trade-war-now-what-181070">US-China trade deal</a> in the near future, saying that Beijing's negotiating position had been weakened by the impact of the tariffs war between the world's top two economies.

"China wants to make a big and very comprehensive deal. It could happen, and rather soon!" Trump tweeted.

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China just announced that their economy is growing much slower than anticipated because of our Trade War with them. They have just suspended U.S. Tariff Hikes. U.S. is doing very well. China wants to make a big and very comprehensive deal. It could happen, and rather soon!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1073617541476569088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
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His optimism followed China's decision earlier Friday to back off from extra punitive duties that had been imposed this summer on US-made cars and auto parts.

The move was seen as the first concrete result of the US leader's<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/us-china-agree-to-trade-war-ceasefire-more-talks-180930"> G20 talks with his counterpart Xi Jinping </a>earlier this month.

Those tariffs now fall from 40 per cent to 15 per cent -- the same rate imposed on all foreign-made vehicles. The relief will last for three months from January 1.

"Suspension of the tariffs is a concrete measure to implement the consensus reached by the two heads of state," said the announcement by the State Council's Tariff Commission Office, noting it applied to 211 product codes.

Trump said the climbdown showed that China had been forced to blink in their on-off spat, after months of heavy <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/china-envoy-warns-of-dire-consequences-if-us-hardliners-hold-sway-179861">US tariffs</a> on Chinese imports.

"China just announced that their economy is growing much slower than anticipated because of our Trade War with them. They have just suspended U.S. Tariff Hikes. US&nbsp;is doing very well," Trump said.

Beijing's move also demonstrated that talks to resolve the trade conflict have survived the tension sparked by Canada's arrest of a top Chinese telecom executive at the behest of US law enforcement.

Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of telecoms behemoth Huawei, has been released on bail in Canada. China wants her unconditional release. Washington wants her extradited for allegedly violating US sanctions on Iran.

China apparently retaliated by detaining two Canadians on suspicion of "harm to national security" -- a phrase often used by Beijing when alleging espionage.

Washington insists that the case is driven purely by the US Justice Department, rather than anything to do with the trade dispute, but Trump has muddied the waters by suggesting he might intervene if that would help the trade talks.

Tit for tat

Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on December 1 to a 90-day truce while they tried to find a solution to the escalating trade dispute.

Confusion and unease over what agreement the two sides reached in Argentina has roiled stock markets.

But trade negotiators talked on the phone this week to discuss a timetable for talks. Friday's announcement in Beijing also confirms what Trump said on December 2 about China acting on the auto tariffs.

"We hope that both sides will -- in accordance with the consensus reached by the two heads of state, on the premise of mutual respect, mutual equality, faithfulness, words and actions -- intensify consultations in the direction of cancelling all of the extra tariff increases," the State Council's statement said.

Stand to benefit

The tariff suspension will benefit US carmakers like Tesla and Ford which have seen China sales tumble.

"It is essential that governments work together to advance balanced and fair trade. We look forward to learning more," a spokesman for Ford said after Trump announced China would cut car tariffs.

International automakers Daimler, maker of the Mercedes-Benz, and BMW have also exported American-made SUVs to China.

US exports to China fell 25 per cent on-year in November as the higher tariffs on hundreds of American goods hurt demand.

In another signal that China may move to satisfy Trump, the country's top legislature announced Friday that it would hold a session from December 23-29 to discuss legislation on foreign investment and draft revisions to the patent law.

The United States has long complained of a lack of fair access for foreign companies in China and rampant theft of intellectual property.

For now, the National People's Congress Standing Committee has not provided details about the draft legislation.

Maintaining and resolving the trade truce could help stabilize sentiment in China, where confidence in the economy has been hurt by the trade frictions with Washington.

Earlier on Friday, economic data showed Chinese consumer spending grew at its slowest pace in 15 years and factories eased up in November, raising the prospect that Beijing could turn to fresh stimulus measures to help the sputtering economy.

China's top officials on the Politburo said in a statement Thursday that major economic indicators will be kept within a reasonable range next year.

"The meeting also signalled further market opening," economists at Trivium Research wrote in a newsletter.

President Donald Trump on Friday predicted a major US-China trade deal in the near future, saying that Beijing's negotiating position had been weakened by the impact of the tariffs war between the world's top two economies.

President Donald Trump on Friday predicted a major US-China trade deal in the near future, saying that Beijing's negotiating position had been weakened by the impact of the tariffs war between the world's top two economies. "China wants to make a big and very comprehensive deal. It could happen, and rather soon!" Trump tweeted. China just announced that their economy is growing much slower than anticipated because of our Trade War with them. They have just suspended U.S. Tariff Hikes. U.S. is doing very well. China wants to make a big and very comprehensive deal. It could happen, and rather soon! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 14, 2018 × His optimism followed China's decision earlier Friday to back off from extra punitive duties that had been imposed this summer on US-made cars and auto parts. The move was seen as the first concrete result of the US leader's G20 talks with his counterpart Xi Jinping earlier this month. Those tariffs now fall from 40 per cent to 15 per cent -- the same rate imposed on all foreign-made vehicles. The relief will last for three months from January 1. "Suspension of the tariffs is a concrete measure to implement the consensus reached by the two heads of state," said the announcement by the State Council's Tariff Commission Office, noting it applied to 211 product codes. Trump said the climbdown showed that China had been forced to blink in their on-off spat, after months of heavy US tariffs on Chinese imports. "China just announced that their economy is growing much slower than anticipated because of our Trade War with them. They have just suspended U.S. Tariff Hikes. US is doing very well," Trump said. Beijing's move also demonstrated that talks to resolve the trade conflict have survived the tension sparked by Canada's arrest of a top Chinese telecom executive at the behest of US law enforcement. Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of telecoms behemoth Huawei, has been released on bail in Canada. China wants her unconditional release. Washington wants her extradited for allegedly violating US sanctions on Iran. China apparently retaliated by detaining two Canadians on suspicion of "harm to national security" -- a phrase often used by Beijing when alleging espionage. Washington insists that the case is driven purely by the US Justice Department, rather than anything to do with the trade dispute, but Trump has muddied the waters by suggesting he might intervene if that would help the trade talks. Tit for tat Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on December 1 to a 90-day truce while they tried to find a solution to the escalating trade dispute. Confusion and unease over what agreement the two sides reached in Argentina has roiled stock markets. But trade negotiators talked on the phone this week to discuss a timetable for talks. Friday's announcement in Beijing also confirms what Trump said on December 2 about China acting on the auto tariffs. "We hope that both sides will -- in accordance with the consensus reached by the two heads of state, on the premise of mutual respect, mutual equality, faithfulness, words and actions -- intensify consultations in the direction of cancelling all of the extra tariff increases," the State Council's statement said. Stand to benefit The tariff suspension will benefit US carmakers like Tesla and Ford which have seen China sales tumble. "It is essential that governments work together to advance balanced and fair trade. We look forward to learning more," a spokesman for Ford said after Trump announced China would cut car tariffs. International automakers Daimler, maker of the Mercedes-Benz, and BMW have also exported American-made SUVs to China. US exports to China fell 25 per cent on-year in November as the higher tariffs on hundreds of American goods hurt demand. In another signal that China may move to satisfy Trump, the country's top legislature announced Friday that it would hold a session from December 23-29 to discuss legislation on foreign investment and draft revisions to the patent law. The United States has long complained of a lack of fair access for foreign companies in China and rampant theft of intellectual property. For now, the National People's Congress Standing Committee has not provided details about the draft legislation. Maintaining and resolving the trade truce could help stabilize sentiment in China, where confidence in the economy has been hurt by the trade frictions with Washington. Earlier on Friday, economic data showed Chinese consumer spending grew at its slowest pace in 15 years and factories eased up in November, raising the prospect that Beijing could turn to fresh stimulus measures to help the sputtering economy. China's top officials on the Politburo said in a statement Thursday that major economic indicators will be kept within a reasonable range next year. "The meeting also signalled further market opening," economists at Trivium Research wrote in a newsletter.

'Big' China-US trade deal could happen rather soon : Trump

US-China trade negotiations need to reach a successful end by March 1 or new tariffs will be imposed, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Sunday, clarifying there is a "hard deadline" after a week of confusion among administration advisers.

Global markets are jittery over prospects of a collision between the world's two largest economic powers over China's huge trade surplus with the United States and U.S. claims that China is stealing intellectual property and technology.

"As far as I am concerned it is a hard deadline. When I talk to the president of the United States he is not talking about going beyond March," Lighthizer said on the CBS show "Face the Nation," referring to President Donald Trump's recent decision to delay new tariffs while talks proceed.

"The way this is set up is that at the end of 90 days, these tariffs will be raised," said Lighthizer, who has been tapped to lead the talks and appeared to tamp down expectations that the negotiation period could be extended.

In Argentina last weekend, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a truce that delayed the planned Jan. 1 US hike of tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent on $200 billion of Chinese goods while they negotiate a trade deal.

However, the arrest of a top executive at China's Huawei Technologies Co Ltd's has roiled global markets amid fears that it could further inflame the China-US trade row.

US-China trade negotiations need to reach a successful end by March 1 or new tariffs will be imposed, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Sunday, clarifying there is a "hard deadline" after a week of confusion among administration advisers.

US-China trade negotiations need to reach a successful end by March 1 or new tariffs will be imposed, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Sunday, clarifying there is a "hard deadline" after a week of confusion among administration advisers. Global markets are jittery over prospects of a collision between the world's two largest economic powers over China's huge trade surplus with the United States and U.S. claims that China is stealing intellectual property and technology. "As far as I am concerned it is a hard deadline. When I talk to the president of the United States he is not talking about going beyond March," Lighthizer said on the CBS show "Face the Nation," referring to President Donald Trump's recent decision to delay new tariffs while talks proceed. "The way this is set up is that at the end of 90 days, these tariffs will be raised," said Lighthizer, who has been tapped to lead the talks and appeared to tamp down expectations that the negotiation period could be extended. In Argentina last weekend, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a truce that delayed the planned Jan. 1 US hike of tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent on $200 billion of Chinese goods while they negotiate a trade deal. However, the arrest of a top executive at China's Huawei Technologies Co Ltd's has roiled global markets amid fears that it could further inflame the China-US trade row.

Trade deal must be reached by March 1 or new tariffs will be imposed: US to China

The G20 Summit 2018, besides its normal proceedings, will be remembered for a large number of bilateral and trilateral meetings on the sidelines, which seem to be even more significant than the main purpose of the meet.&nbsp;

There were some high profile bilateral meetings like US-China in the context of trade war. Meanwhile, US–Russia meeting (scheduling of which saw many flip-flops) finally could not take place due to Ukraine crisis&nbsp;and ongoing investigations into alleged Russia's involvement in the US elections.&nbsp;

The two trilateral meetings involving US-Japan-India and China-Russia-India were also very significant because of the peculiarity of Indian position in both the meetings. One of the reasons for this phenomenon is that the world has become more interconnected, hence even bilateral relations between global powers impact the world directly or indirectly.&nbsp;

For an instance, when a large number of countries including US allies, strategic and trade partners joined The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), against the wishes of the US, it was quite evident that a time has come when many countries will like to have alternate sources of funding other than west dominated IMF or Japan-led Asian Development Bank (ADB). Similarly, when China exhibited aggressive design of converting atolls into artificial islands ignoring international laws, a group of democratic countries huddled together to form 'the QUAD' with a potential to counterbalance such moves.

The international relationships and strategic interests of most countries in the interlinked world today are so interwoven, that it is difficult to count countries only in one grouping; hence, many new issue based groupings have emerged in last few decades. &nbsp; &nbsp;

In the exuberance of pursuing ‘America First’ policy, in the last few years, the US has been highly critical of some of its allies, strategic and trade partners. In some cases, it used threatening gestures, while some others were slapped with sanctions. The policy got a major jolt when America literally threatened everyone to support their decision of shifting embassy to Jerusalem, but many countries junked the threat and voted as per their own perception. Pulling out of the Paris Accord for Climate Change, Iran Nuclear deal, TPP are some more examples when many of US allies were not on the same page with the Trump Administration.&nbsp;

The last G7 Summit was not a pleasant experience for the US allies due to alleged self-centred economic approach of America. The NATO allies are also relatively lesser confident of the US-backing and keep waiting for next surprise from Trump Administration. Under these circumstances, Is Trump's Concept of ‘With US’ or ‘Against the US’ is outdated in the interlinked world?&nbsp;

On the other hand, Chinese after announcing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, with the elevation of President Xi Jinping from ‘Chairman of everything’ to ‘Core’ and ‘Leader for life’, exhibited its expeditionary design starting from the South China Sea to land grabbing. With its fast growth, it tried to showcase that its methodology of governance was better than the democratic model. Its ‘Incremental Encroachment Strategy’ in Doklam and the South China Sea, exhibited Chinese ambitions exceeding beyond peaceful growth to the arena of global strategic dominance; hence it started facing opposition from a group of democratic countries.

In the case of Russia also, we find Germany, a US ally, drawing gas from them. Furthermore, Russia and China helped out North Korea with fuel and essentialities immediately after Singapore Summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Russia - a strategic partner of India supplies military hardware to Pakistan. A cross-pollination of relations is therefore quite evident.&nbsp;

The time has come when most countries want to manage their international relations as per their own national interests and do not want their strategic choices to be dictated by others. It is also a fact that as the world becoming more interconnected, the trend of issue-based relationships is increasing. 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The G20 Summit 2018, besides its normal proceedings, will be remembered for a large number of bilateral and trilateral meetings on the sidelines, which seem to be even more significant than the main purpose of the meet.

The G20 Summit 2018, besides its normal proceedings, will be remembered for a large number of bilateral and trilateral meetings on the sidelines, which seem to be even more significant than the main purpose of the meet. There were some high profile bilateral meetings like US-China in the context of trade war. Meanwhile, US–Russia meeting (scheduling of which saw many flip-flops) finally could not take place due to Ukraine crisis and ongoing investigations into alleged Russia's involvement in the US elections. The two trilateral meetings involving US-Japan-India and China-Russia-India were also very significant because of the peculiarity of Indian position in both the meetings. One of the reasons for this phenomenon is that the world has become more interconnected, hence even bilateral relations between global powers impact the world directly or indirectly. For an instance, when a large number of countries including US allies, strategic and trade partners joined The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), against the wishes of the US, it was quite evident that a time has come when many countries will like to have alternate sources of funding other than west dominated IMF or Japan-led Asian Development Bank (ADB). Similarly, when China exhibited aggressive design of converting atolls into artificial islands ignoring international laws, a group of democratic countries huddled together to form 'the QUAD' with a potential to counterbalance such moves. The international relationships and strategic interests of most countries in the interlinked world today are so interwoven, that it is difficult to count countries only in one grouping; hence, many new issue based groupings have emerged in last few decades. In the exuberance of pursuing ‘America First’ policy, in the last few years, the US has been highly critical of some of its allies, strategic and trade partners. In some cases, it used threatening gestures, while some others were slapped with sanctions. The policy got a major jolt when America literally threatened everyone to support their decision of shifting embassy to Jerusalem, but many countries junked the threat and voted as per their own perception. Pulling out of the Paris Accord for Climate Change, Iran Nuclear deal, TPP are some more examples when many of US allies were not on the same page with the Trump Administration. The last G7 Summit was not a pleasant experience for the US allies due to alleged self-centred economic approach of America. The NATO allies are also relatively lesser confident of the US-backing and keep waiting for next surprise from Trump Administration. Under these circumstances, Is Trump's Concept of ‘With US’ or ‘Against the US’ is outdated in the interlinked world? On the other hand, Chinese after announcing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, with the elevation of President Xi Jinping from ‘Chairman of everything’ to ‘Core’ and ‘Leader for life’, exhibited its expeditionary design starting from the South China Sea to land grabbing. With its fast growth, it tried to showcase that its methodology of governance was better than the democratic model. Its ‘Incremental Encroachment Strategy’ in Doklam and the South China Sea, exhibited Chinese ambitions exceeding beyond peaceful growth to the arena of global strategic dominance; hence it started facing opposition from a group of democratic countries. In the case of Russia also, we find Germany, a US ally, drawing gas from them. Furthermore, Russia and China helped out North Korea with fuel and essentialities immediately after Singapore Summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Russia - a strategic partner of India supplies military hardware to Pakistan. A cross-pollination of relations is therefore quite evident. The time has come when most countries want to manage their international relations as per their own national interests and do not want their strategic choices to be dictated by others. It is also a fact that as the world becoming more interconnected, the trend of issue-based relationships is increasing. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The importance of strategic balance in an interconnected world

By Tony Walker

The United States and China have arrived at a temporary truce in a trade conflict that was threatening to further destabilise world equity markets, entrench a global slowdown and cause more damage to a rules-based international order.

Agreement by US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to allow further negotiations before threatened tariff increases on Chinese imports coming into effect, is a welcome development.

However, this is a temporary respite, a short-term fix, not a long-term solution to myriad trade and other tensions that have put the US and China at odds with each other.

For their own purposes and in their own interests, Trump and Xi have come away from the Argentine capital with a deal that papers over differences that extend from China’s activities in the South China Sea to its mercantilist trade policies.

As far as we know, China’s ruthless assertion of its sovereignty over disputed waters in the South China Sea was not a material subject for discussion in Buenos Aires except, possibly, in passing.

China’s rise and America’s relative decline ensure these global economic superpowers will continue to bump up against each other.

So, what was achieved and what are the prospects for an accord reached on the sidelines of the G20?

In their efforts to lower trade tensions and prevent a further erosion of global confidence, Trump and Xi agreed to a 90-day extension on the imposition of additional US tariffs on some $200 billion of Chinese imports.

Trump had threatened to increase tariffs from 10 per cent to 25 per cent on an initial batch of Chinese imports from January 1. He had also flagged his intention to impose levies on another $267 billion worth of imports if progress was not made in resolving broad-based trade differences.

A joint statement laid out a timeline for continuing negotiations. It reads:

"Both parties agree that they will endeavour to have this transaction completed within the next 90 days. If, at the end of this period of time, the parties are unable to reach an agreement, the 10 per cent tariffs will be raised to 25 percent."

In return for these temporary concessions, China agreed to:

"… purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other product from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries. China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product immediately."

China also agreed to crack down on sales of Fentanyl by making it a controlled substance. The US is battling an opioid crisis in which Fentanyl is a lethal component.

In retaliation for US trade actions, China had imposed duties on US$110 billion of imports. A principal component of this is soybeans, effectively killing one of America’s more lucrative export markets.

Trump has been under huge pressure from his Mid-Western rural heartland over a collapse in the Chinese market for American agricultural products.

The two sides also agreed to address structural problems in the trading relationship. These extend to five areas – forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft.

These are highly complex issues and unlikely to be resolved in the short term, if at all.

In the wash-up of the Xi-Trump discussions, it appears China has got more out of the deal than the US – at least for now. It has secured a stay of execution for the implementation of tariff increases and forestalled, for the time being, tariffs on an additional bloc of Chinese exports.

In return, it has agreed to buy unspecified quantities of US products and to talk about differences.

Trump’s willingness to compromise after months of bombast reflects pressures from a shellshocked grain-producing constituency and alarm on Wall Street at prospects of a full-blown trade war.

From Beijing’s perspective, China has demonstrated that its growing economic heft has enabled it to avoid the appearance of yielding to US pressure.

If not a “win-win” for China – as Chinese officials are fond of saying – it is certainly not a “lose-lose”.

In a statement at odds with months of fire-breathing rhetoric over China’s allegedly perfidious trade practices, Trump hailed his understanding with Xi. He said: "This was an amazing and productive meeting with unlimited possibilities for both the US and China."

For their part, Chinese officials were more circumspect.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the talks were conducted in a “friendly and candid atmosphere”. The presidents: "Agreed that the two sides can and must get bilateral relations right… China is willing to increase imports in accordance with the needs of its domestic market and the people’s needs."

Impetus for a face-saving deal in Buenos Aires has been prompted by growing concerns about the global economy. The signs of a slowdown are clear. Trade volumes had begun to moderate in the third quarter, heightening worries of a global retrenchment.

On the sidelines of the G20, the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, noted:

"Pressures on emerging markets have been rising and trade tensions have begun to have a negative impact, increasing downside risks."

In its October Outlook statement, the IMF warned about threats to global growth due to trade disturbances.

In their final communique, G20 leaders danced around contentious issues on trade to accommodate American objections to having the word “protectionism” inserted in the document.

In the end, participants settled on the need for reform of the World Trade Organisation to describe a world trading system that is falling short of its objectives. Washington has been agitating for a review of the WTO to strengthen its dispute resolution and appeal procedures.

The US has also objected to a continuing description of China as a developing country, with concessions that enable it to take advantage of less developed country status in its access to global markets.

On climate change, Washington separated itself from the other G20 members. All, except the US, reaffirmed their commitment to the Paris Agreement. The US announced in 2017 it was pulling out of Paris.

Foreign policy specialists will be sceptical about a de-escalation of trade hostilities given the range of issues bedevilling the US-China relationship.

Reflecting a hardening of US attitudes towards China, and in contrast to the optimism that had prevailed for much of the past two decades, Ely Ratner in Foreign Affairs notes:

"Even if tariffs are put on hold, the United States will continue to restructure the US-China economic relationship through investment restrictions, export controls, and sustained law enforcement actions against Chinese industrial and cyber-espionage."

"At the same time, there are no serious prospects for Washington and Beijing to resolve other important areas of dispute, including the South China Sea, human rights and the larger contest over the norms, rules and institutions that govern relations in Asia."

A stiffening view in the US towards China is shared more or less across the board. In those circumstances, a temporary ceasefire in Buenos Aires is unlikely to be sustained.

 
(Tony Walker is Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe University)

(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/g20-summit-bring-a-truce-in-us-china-trade-relations-but-its-likely-to-be-temporary-108017">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

By Tony Walker The United States and China have arrived at a temporary truce in a trade conflict that was threatening to further destabilise world equity markets, entrench a global slowdown and cause more damage to a rules-based international order.

By Tony Walker The United States and China have arrived at a temporary truce in a trade conflict that was threatening to further destabilise world equity markets, entrench a global slowdown and cause more damage to a rules-based international order. Agreement by US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to allow further negotiations before threatened tariff increases on Chinese imports coming into effect, is a welcome development. However, this is a temporary respite, a short-term fix, not a long-term solution to myriad trade and other tensions that have put the US and China at odds with each other. For their own purposes and in their own interests, Trump and Xi have come away from the Argentine capital with a deal that papers over differences that extend from China’s activities in the South China Sea to its mercantilist trade policies. As far as we know, China’s ruthless assertion of its sovereignty over disputed waters in the South China Sea was not a material subject for discussion in Buenos Aires except, possibly, in passing. China’s rise and America’s relative decline ensure these global economic superpowers will continue to bump up against each other. So, what was achieved and what are the prospects for an accord reached on the sidelines of the G20? In their efforts to lower trade tensions and prevent a further erosion of global confidence, Trump and Xi agreed to a 90-day extension on the imposition of additional US tariffs on some $200 billion of Chinese imports. Trump had threatened to increase tariffs from 10 per cent to 25 per cent on an initial batch of Chinese imports from January 1. He had also flagged his intention to impose levies on another $267 billion worth of imports if progress was not made in resolving broad-based trade differences. A joint statement laid out a timeline for continuing negotiations. It reads: "Both parties agree that they will endeavour to have this transaction completed within the next 90 days. If, at the end of this period of time, the parties are unable to reach an agreement, the 10 per cent tariffs will be raised to 25 percent." In return for these temporary concessions, China agreed to: "… purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other product from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries. China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product immediately." China also agreed to crack down on sales of Fentanyl by making it a controlled substance. The US is battling an opioid crisis in which Fentanyl is a lethal component. In retaliation for US trade actions, China had imposed duties on US$110 billion of imports. A principal component of this is soybeans, effectively killing one of America’s more lucrative export markets. Trump has been under huge pressure from his Mid-Western rural heartland over a collapse in the Chinese market for American agricultural products. The two sides also agreed to address structural problems in the trading relationship. These extend to five areas – forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft. These are highly complex issues and unlikely to be resolved in the short term, if at all. In the wash-up of the Xi-Trump discussions, it appears China has got more out of the deal than the US – at least for now. It has secured a stay of execution for the implementation of tariff increases and forestalled, for the time being, tariffs on an additional bloc of Chinese exports. In return, it has agreed to buy unspecified quantities of US products and to talk about differences. Trump’s willingness to compromise after months of bombast reflects pressures from a shellshocked grain-producing constituency and alarm on Wall Street at prospects of a full-blown trade war. From Beijing’s perspective, China has demonstrated that its growing economic heft has enabled it to avoid the appearance of yielding to US pressure. If not a “win-win” for China – as Chinese officials are fond of saying – it is certainly not a “lose-lose”. In a statement at odds with months of fire-breathing rhetoric over China’s allegedly perfidious trade practices, Trump hailed his understanding with Xi. He said: "This was an amazing and productive meeting with unlimited possibilities for both the US and China." For their part, Chinese officials were more circumspect. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the talks were conducted in a “friendly and candid atmosphere”. The presidents: "Agreed that the two sides can and must get bilateral relations right… China is willing to increase imports in accordance with the needs of its domestic market and the people’s needs." Impetus for a face-saving deal in Buenos Aires has been prompted by growing concerns about the global economy. The signs of a slowdown are clear. Trade volumes had begun to moderate in the third quarter, heightening worries of a global retrenchment. On the sidelines of the G20, the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, noted: "Pressures on emerging markets have been rising and trade tensions have begun to have a negative impact, increasing downside risks." In its October Outlook statement, the IMF warned about threats to global growth due to trade disturbances. In their final communique, G20 leaders danced around contentious issues on trade to accommodate American objections to having the word “protectionism” inserted in the document. In the end, participants settled on the need for reform of the World Trade Organisation to describe a world trading system that is falling short of its objectives. Washington has been agitating for a review of the WTO to strengthen its dispute resolution and appeal procedures. The US has also objected to a continuing description of China as a developing country, with concessions that enable it to take advantage of less developed country status in its access to global markets. On climate change, Washington separated itself from the other G20 members. All, except the US, reaffirmed their commitment to the Paris Agreement. The US announced in 2017 it was pulling out of Paris. Foreign policy specialists will be sceptical about a de-escalation of trade hostilities given the range of issues bedevilling the US-China relationship. Reflecting a hardening of US attitudes towards China, and in contrast to the optimism that had prevailed for much of the past two decades, Ely Ratner in Foreign Affairs notes: "Even if tariffs are put on hold, the United States will continue to restructure the US-China economic relationship through investment restrictions, export controls, and sustained law enforcement actions against Chinese industrial and cyber-espionage." "At the same time, there are no serious prospects for Washington and Beijing to resolve other important areas of dispute, including the South China Sea, human rights and the larger contest over the norms, rules and institutions that govern relations in Asia." A stiffening view in the US towards China is shared more or less across the board. In those circumstances, a temporary ceasefire in Buenos Aires is unlikely to be sustained. (Tony Walker is Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe University) (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

G20 summit brings a truce in US-China trade relations

US President <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/us-says-it-is-suspending-new-china-tariffs-for-90-days-180809">Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping agreed Saturday to suspend any new tariffs</a> in the escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies, even if huge existing duties will remain in place.

Following more than two hours of dinner talks between the two leaders, the White House said an increase of tariffs from 10 to 25 per cent due to kick in on January 1 would now be put on hold, providing room for intense negotiations.&nbsp;

The agreement hashed out over steak in the Argentine capital Buenos Aires, lowers the temperature in a conflict that has spooked world markets.

The two leaders, who were in Buenos Aires for a summit of the G20 countries, called it "a highly successful meeting," the White House said.

"The principal agreement has effectively prevented further expansion of economic friction between the two countries and has opened up new space for win-win cooperation," said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Partial truce

Under the agreement, Trump is shelving a plan to raise existing tariffs of 10 per cent to 25 per cent from the start of next year.

Xi avoids further immediate pressure on China's slowing economy, while Trump -- hit by the US Democrats' congressional win in last month's mid-term elections -- can ease damage to agricultural US states that export to China, particularly the key soybean crop.

"This was a rare opportunity for China because (the mid-terms) made Trump a lame president," said Beijing-based political consultant Hua Po.

"So at this time it was acceptable for China to maintain some bottom lines while making some major concessions."

But Brad Setser, a former Treasury official and now senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, told Bloomberg much remains to be done.

"The hard part is finding the basis for a real deal that settles the broader issues rather than agreeing on a pause," Setser said.

The truce is only partial.

Some $50 billion worth of Chinese imports already face 25 per cent tariffs, while the 10 per cent tariffs -- which target a massive $200 billion in goods -- will also remain in effect.&nbsp;

Meanwhile, China has targeted $110 billion worth of US imports for tariffs.&nbsp;

If there is any further retaliation, Trump has warned, he will slap punitive duties on the remaining $267 billion in Chinese goods coming to the United States.

And Saturday's truce also contained an ultimatum.

The White House made clear that the 10 per cent tariffs would still leap up to 25 per cent if China doesn't meet US demands in 90 days.

These include China stopping a host of trade barriers, intellectual property theft and other actions that Washington says make fair trade impossible.&nbsp;

Tough negotiations lie ahead, but Trump was upbeat.

"This was an amazing and productive meeting with unlimited possibilities for both the United States and China," he said in a statement.

Steaks and high stakes

The meeting -- featuring a menu of sirloin steak, caramel rolled pancakes and Argentine wine -- went on longer than scheduled.&nbsp;

And while it may have been tacked on to the end of two days of G20 diplomacy, it was in many ways the main event of the weekend.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was also attending the G20, spoke for many when she urged progress.

"We all realize that we are indirectly influenced by the fact that Sino-American economic relations are not running as smoothly as a world order needs," she said.

Personal chemistry factor

On the US side at the dinner, Trump was accompanied by advisers such as Larry Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who are widely seen as wanting a deal.

But hawkish advisers like Peter Navarro and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer were also present.&nbsp;

Trump, as often in his diplomatic dealings, appears to consider his personal chemistry with Xi the most important factor in the success of the negotiations.

He has prided himself on building a good relationship with the Chinese leader, even though he acknowledges it may have trouble surviving the growing crisis.

At the dinner, Trump said his ties to Xi were "a very primary reason" for considering a deal possible.

US President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping agreed Saturday to suspend any new tariffs in the escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies, even if huge existing duties will remain in place.

US President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping agreed Saturday to suspend any new tariffs in the escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies, even if huge existing duties will remain in place. Following more than two hours of dinner talks between the two leaders, the White House said an increase of tariffs from 10 to 25 per cent due to kick in on January 1 would now be put on hold, providing room for intense negotiations. The agreement hashed out over steak in the Argentine capital Buenos Aires, lowers the temperature in a conflict that has spooked world markets. The two leaders, who were in Buenos Aires for a summit of the G20 countries, called it "a highly successful meeting," the White House said. "The principal agreement has effectively prevented further expansion of economic friction between the two countries and has opened up new space for win-win cooperation," said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Partial truce Under the agreement, Trump is shelving a plan to raise existing tariffs of 10 per cent to 25 per cent from the start of next year. Xi avoids further immediate pressure on China's slowing economy, while Trump -- hit by the US Democrats' congressional win in last month's mid-term elections -- can ease damage to agricultural US states that export to China, particularly the key soybean crop. "This was a rare opportunity for China because (the mid-terms) made Trump a lame president," said Beijing-based political consultant Hua Po. "So at this time it was acceptable for China to maintain some bottom lines while making some major concessions." But Brad Setser, a former Treasury official and now senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, told Bloomberg much remains to be done. "The hard part is finding the basis for a real deal that settles the broader issues rather than agreeing on a pause," Setser said. The truce is only partial. Some $50 billion worth of Chinese imports already face 25 per cent tariffs, while the 10 per cent tariffs -- which target a massive $200 billion in goods -- will also remain in effect. Meanwhile, China has targeted $110 billion worth of US imports for tariffs. If there is any further retaliation, Trump has warned, he will slap punitive duties on the remaining $267 billion in Chinese goods coming to the United States. And Saturday's truce also contained an ultimatum. The White House made clear that the 10 per cent tariffs would still leap up to 25 per cent if China doesn't meet US demands in 90 days. These include China stopping a host of trade barriers, intellectual property theft and other actions that Washington says make fair trade impossible. Tough negotiations lie ahead, but Trump was upbeat. "This was an amazing and productive meeting with unlimited possibilities for both the United States and China," he said in a statement. Steaks and high stakes The meeting -- featuring a menu of sirloin steak, caramel rolled pancakes and Argentine wine -- went on longer than scheduled. And while it may have been tacked on to the end of two days of G20 diplomacy, it was in many ways the main event of the weekend. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was also attending the G20, spoke for many when she urged progress. "We all realize that we are indirectly influenced by the fact that Sino-American economic relations are not running as smoothly as a world order needs," she said. Personal chemistry factor On the US side at the dinner, Trump was accompanied by advisers such as Larry Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who are widely seen as wanting a deal. But hawkish advisers like Peter Navarro and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer were also present. Trump, as often in his diplomatic dealings, appears to consider his personal chemistry with Xi the most important factor in the success of the negotiations. He has prided himself on building a good relationship with the Chinese leader, even though he acknowledges it may have trouble surviving the growing crisis. At the dinner, Trump said his ties to Xi were "a very primary reason" for considering a deal possible.

US, China agree to trade war ceasefire, talks to continue

China has not accepted India's proposal to carry out bilateral trade in local currencies which was aimed at bridging the ballooning trade deficit with the neighbouring country, an official said.

India's exports to China stood at only $13.4 billion, imports aggregated to $76.4 billion in 2017-18, leaving a trade deficit of $63 billion. It was $51.11 billion in 2016-17.

India had suggested China for renminbi-rupee trade to boost its exports and tackle the widening trade deficit concern.

'They have not accepted the proposal,'&nbsp;the official said.

The issue was discussed in an inter-ministerial meeting in October. In the meeting, it was suggested to the Reserve Bank of India and the Department of Economic Affairs would look at the possibility of exploring renminbi-rupee trade with China.

India has also proposed trade in national currencies with some other countries, including Russia, Iran and Venezuela. New Delhi has trade deficit with these three countries, too.

The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President Ganesh Kumar Gupta said that the government should promote exports from India in the domestic currency.

'This will help in bridging trade deficit with countries like China,'&nbsp;Gupta said.

Trade experts have stated that bilateral trade in domestic currencies will help India only in the case of those countries with which it has a trade balance.

"Trade imbalance should not be there with the country with which we want to do trade in rupee. It will not help in bridging the deficit. The partner country should have an opportunity to invest in India to use the rupee," said Biswajit Dhar, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University.

The Indian industry and exporters have time and again raised the issue of increasing trade deficit with China and have asked the government to seek greater market access for domestic goods in the Chinese market.

Recently, China has permitted exports of rice and sugar. But India wants to increase exports of several other items, including pharmaceuticals, engineering and services.&nbsp;

China has not accepted India's proposal to carry out bilateral trade in local currencies which was aimed at bridging the ballooning trade deficit with the neighbouring country, an official said.

China has not accepted India's proposal to carry out bilateral trade in local currencies which was aimed at bridging the ballooning trade deficit with the neighbouring country, an official said. India's exports to China stood at only $13.4 billion, imports aggregated to $76.4 billion in 2017-18, leaving a trade deficit of $63 billion. It was $51.11 billion in 2016-17. India had suggested China for renminbi-rupee trade to boost its exports and tackle the widening trade deficit concern. 'They have not accepted the proposal,' the official said. The issue was discussed in an inter-ministerial meeting in October. In the meeting, it was suggested to the Reserve Bank of India and the Department of Economic Affairs would look at the possibility of exploring renminbi-rupee trade with China. India has also proposed trade in national currencies with some other countries, including Russia, Iran and Venezuela. New Delhi has trade deficit with these three countries, too. The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President Ganesh Kumar Gupta said that the government should promote exports from India in the domestic currency. 'This will help in bridging trade deficit with countries like China,' Gupta said. Trade experts have stated that bilateral trade in domestic currencies will help India only in the case of those countries with which it has a trade balance. "Trade imbalance should not be there with the country with which we want to do trade in rupee. It will not help in bridging the deficit. The partner country should have an opportunity to invest in India to use the rupee," said Biswajit Dhar, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University. The Indian industry and exporters have time and again raised the issue of increasing trade deficit with China and have asked the government to seek greater market access for domestic goods in the Chinese market. Recently, China has permitted exports of rice and sugar. But India wants to increase exports of several other items, including pharmaceuticals, engineering and services.

China says no to India's proposal for bilateral trade in domestic currencies

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