As we peer into the future of 2100, the landscape of nearly 30,000 cities in the United States may undergo substantial transformations. A recent study predicts that almost half of these cities will experience population decline, losing between 12 to 23 per cent of their residents by the century's end.

These changes, influenced by both climate-driven natural forces and human responses, pose significant challenges that extend beyond city boundaries, according to ScienceAlert.

<h2>From sprawling to ageing communities</h2>

The study suggests that the cities of the future are more likely to witness shifts in population dynamics, evolving into fractured, thinning, or sprawling communities.

While outright abandonment is not the envisioned outcome, the researchers caution that unless local governments and town planners adapt to the evolving needs of residents, these transformations may lead to unprecedented challenges.

The anticipated decline in population raises concerns about the disruption of fundamental services such as transit, clean water, electricity, and internet access.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/trending/us-space-agency-has-seen-thousands-of-ufos-in-one-month-report-664809">Also read |&nbsp;US space agency has seen ‘thousands of UFOs’ in one month: Report</a>

As cities shrink and populations age, the potential consequences include grocery store closures, resulting in food deserts, and neglected infrastructure in dwindling towns, leaving communities without essential resources, reminiscent of the water crisis in Jackson, Mississippi, in 2021.

Originally focussing on transportation challenges in Illinois, the researchers expanded their analysis to encompass all 50 states. Drawing from US census data and climate scenarios, the study paints a comprehensive picture of the potential future of cities, challenging the conventional focus on larger urban centres.

Currently, 43 per cent of US cities are losing residents, a figure that could rise to 64 per cent by 2100, depending on climate scenarios.

Also watch |&nbsp;Two US Navy seals go missing off Somalia coast, search underway

<div class="videoWrapper trancodeVideo"><iframe allowfullscreen="" autoplay="1" class="includeVideo" frameborder="0" height="350" src="https://www.wionews.com/videos/two-us-navy-seals-go-missing-off-somalia-coast-search-underway-680509/embed" style="width:100%;max-width:560px;" width="560"></iframe></div>

Projections indicate that the Northeast and Midwest regions are likely to witness the most depopulating cities. Even states like Texas and Utah, currently experiencing growth, may encounter significant population loss in certain cities by 2100.

However, the analysis acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in estimating population trends decades ahead and does not delve into the complex factors driving these projections, such as economic and social influences or internal migration.

(With inputs from agencies)

As we peer into the future of 2100, the landscape of nearly 30,000 cities in the United States may undergo substantial transformations. A recent study predicts that almost half of these cities will experience population decline, losing between 12 to 23 per cent of their residents by the century's end.

As we peer into the future of 2100, the landscape of nearly 30,000 cities in the United States may undergo substantial transformations. A recent study predicts that almost half of these cities will experience population decline, losing between 12 to 23 per cent of their residents by the century's end. These changes, influenced by both climate-driven natural forces and human responses, pose significant challenges that extend beyond city boundaries, according to ScienceAlert. From sprawling to ageing communities The study suggests that the cities of the future are more likely to witness shifts in population dynamics, evolving into fractured, thinning, or sprawling communities. While outright abandonment is not the envisioned outcome, the researchers caution that unless local governments and town planners adapt to the evolving needs of residents, these transformations may lead to unprecedented challenges. The anticipated decline in population raises concerns about the disruption of fundamental services such as transit, clean water, electricity, and internet access. Also read | US space agency has seen ‘thousands of UFOs’ in one month: Report As cities shrink and populations age, the potential consequences include grocery store closures, resulting in food deserts, and neglected infrastructure in dwindling towns, leaving communities without essential resources, reminiscent of the water crisis in Jackson, Mississippi, in 2021. Originally focussing on transportation challenges in Illinois, the researchers expanded their analysis to encompass all 50 states. Drawing from US census data and climate scenarios, the study paints a comprehensive picture of the potential future of cities, challenging the conventional focus on larger urban centres. Currently, 43 per cent of US cities are losing residents, a figure that could rise to 64 per cent by 2100, depending on climate scenarios. Also watch | Two US Navy seals go missing off Somalia coast, search underway Projections indicate that the Northeast and Midwest regions are likely to witness the most depopulating cities. Even states like Texas and Utah, currently experiencing growth, may encounter significant population loss in certain cities by 2100. However, the analysis acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in estimating population trends decades ahead and does not delve into the complex factors driving these projections, such as economic and social influences or internal migration. (With inputs from agencies)

Many US cities could empty out by 2100, become ‘ghost cities’ due to population drop: Study

By Sebastien Darchen*, Gwendal Simon**

 
The regeneration of inner-city areas is a global challenge. Inner cities in France certainly have their problems, but the nation also has a good record of successful major urban regeneration projects. We have analysed three of these initiatives to understand what factors contribute to good regeneration outcomes.

Urban regeneration can be defined as a holistic approach to revitalise under-used areas of the city. It&rsquo;s commonly associated, however, with the related challenges of gentrification, rising property values, and displacement of low-income groups. And these projects do not always achieve a sense of place.&nbsp;

French cities have much higher densities than Australian cities. For instance, Paris has 10,000 inhabitants per square kilometre, which is more than five times the population density of Sydney&rsquo;s 1,900/km2. Higher density and more accessibility to public transport are important for successful urban regeneration. But this is not the only explanation for its success in France.

With the post-industrial society, new approaches are emerging to solve planning challenges in France. Since the nation began decentralisation in 1982, local authorities have gained more power to implement planning strategies.

At the same time, the multiplicity of urban stakeholders makes decision-making difficult. Since the 1990s, legal obligations to consult with residents have increased. Regeneration projects have to follow general planning principles but must also allow some flexibility to enable the local community to have an input.

Lyon Confluence

Lyon Confluence is the largest urban regeneration project in Europe with 150 hectares of land having been redeveloped since 2003. The project is led by public redevelopment company SPL Lyon. It is 89% owned by Greater Lyon, a metropolitan institution made up of 59 local authorities.

SPL Lyon is able to set up strict planning and urban design principles. Developers are required to integrate these principles into their designs to be part of the project.

SPL sells the land to developers at a fixed rate. Developers need to win design competitions to be part of the project and not just offer the best price for the land.

Lyon Confluence has attracted foreign investors, such as Japan&rsquo;s NEDO, and became a model for smart positive energy buildings, which produce more energy than they consume.

&Icirc;le de Nantes

The &Icirc;le de Nantes regeneration project aims to transform a 337-hectare industrial area into a sustainable living and working environment. There is a strong emphasis on preserving the industrial character of the area.&nbsp;

Another objective is to attract creative industries firms to a creative arts district to replace the local shipbuilding industry, which closed in 1987.

A public redevelopment company known as SAMOA oversees the &Icirc;le de Nantes project, which will be completed in 2037. Innovative placemaking strategies are being developed to create a sense of place connected to the area&rsquo;s industrial past. The project includes a lot of consultation with urban stakeholders.

Paris Rive-Gauche

The Paris Rive Gauche project is one of the most important regeneration project in the city. The 130-hectare site is located in the east of Paris, on the banks of the Seine. Paris Rive Gauche means Paris Left Bank and refers to the Paris of an earlier era.&nbsp;

The aim is to redevelop industrial wasteland located around the Austerlitz train station. A publicly owned local development company, SEMAPA, manages the project.

The concerted development zone, or ZAC (zone d&#39;am&eacute;nagement concert&eacute;e), was launched in 1991. Works included the construction of the Fran&ccedil;ois Mitterrand National Library (BNF), which began in 1991 and was completed in 1995.

Despite being overseen by one leading agency, the project is based on strong public involvement and the program has been modified. Powerful local associations went to court as there was not enough public space and the density was too high. In 1997, to prevent further revisions, SEMAPA developed a meaningful public involvement process to ensure the intentions of community stakeholders are incorporated in this large-scale project; developers are obliged to integrate these intentions.

The role of the development agency is to select developers through a competitive process to achieve the best design outcomes. Paris Rive Gauche is not just another business district like &nbsp;La D&eacute;fense, but a real urban neighbourhood developed around existing urban landmarks. It &nbsp;combines a mix of uses (offices, housing, local retail and services, green spaces) and good access to public transport.&nbsp;

What do these projects have in common?

The three regeneration initiatives presented here are all led by a single development agency financed with public money. This type of governance allows for clear leadership, which is essential to complete projects with a 30-year lifespan.

Development agencies ensure through a public involvement process that these initiatives reflect local community aspirations. The creation of the ZAC as a planning instrument allows for the project&rsquo;s objectives to be modified as it evolves.

Development agencies have the financial capacity to sell the land below market prices and to subsidise housing for low-income households. The French planning instruments and financing mechanisms associated with public involvement in decision-making contribute to successful urban regeneration. This approach is known as &ldquo;transactional urbanism&rdquo;, reflecting the increasing negotiations between the development agency and the community.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

*Sebastien Darchen is a Lecturer in Planning, The University of Queensland 
**Gwendal Simon is an Assistant Professor of Planning and Urban Planning, Universit&eacute; Paris-Est Marne-la-Vall&eacute;e (UPEM)

&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) &nbsp;

Urban regeneration is an approach to revitalise under-used areas of the city. It’s commonly associated with the related challenges of gentrification, rising property values, and displacement of low-income groups.

By Sebastien Darchen*, Gwendal Simon** The regeneration of inner-city areas is a global challenge. Inner cities in France certainly have their problems, but the nation also has a good record of successful major urban regeneration projects. We have analysed three of these initiatives to understand what factors contribute to good regeneration outcomes. Urban regeneration can be defined as a holistic approach to revitalise under-used areas of the city. It’s commonly associated, however, with the related challenges of gentrification, rising property values, and displacement of low-income groups. And these projects do not always achieve a sense of place. French cities have much higher densities than Australian cities. For instance, Paris has 10,000 inhabitants per square kilometre, which is more than five times the population density of Sydney’s 1,900/km2. Higher density and more accessibility to public transport are important for successful urban regeneration. But this is not the only explanation for its success in France. With the post-industrial society, new approaches are emerging to solve planning challenges in France. Since the nation began decentralisation in 1982, local authorities have gained more power to implement planning strategies. At the same time, the multiplicity of urban stakeholders makes decision-making difficult. Since the 1990s, legal obligations to consult with residents have increased. Regeneration projects have to follow general planning principles but must also allow some flexibility to enable the local community to have an input. Lyon Confluence Lyon Confluence is the largest urban regeneration project in Europe with 150 hectares of land having been redeveloped since 2003. The project is led by public redevelopment company SPL Lyon. It is 89% owned by Greater Lyon, a metropolitan institution made up of 59 local authorities. SPL Lyon is able to set up strict planning and urban design principles. Developers are required to integrate these principles into their designs to be part of the project. SPL sells the land to developers at a fixed rate. Developers need to win design competitions to be part of the project and not just offer the best price for the land. Lyon Confluence has attracted foreign investors, such as Japan’s NEDO, and became a model for smart positive energy buildings, which produce more energy than they consume. Île de Nantes The Île de Nantes regeneration project aims to transform a 337-hectare industrial area into a sustainable living and working environment. There is a strong emphasis on preserving the industrial character of the area. Another objective is to attract creative industries firms to a creative arts district to replace the local shipbuilding industry, which closed in 1987. A public redevelopment company known as SAMOA oversees the Île de Nantes project, which will be completed in 2037. Innovative placemaking strategies are being developed to create a sense of place connected to the area’s industrial past. The project includes a lot of consultation with urban stakeholders. Paris Rive-Gauche The Paris Rive Gauche project is one of the most important regeneration project in the city. The 130-hectare site is located in the east of Paris, on the banks of the Seine. Paris Rive Gauche means Paris Left Bank and refers to the Paris of an earlier era. The aim is to redevelop industrial wasteland located around the Austerlitz train station. A publicly owned local development company, SEMAPA, manages the project. The concerted development zone, or ZAC (zone d'aménagement concertée), was launched in 1991. Works included the construction of the François Mitterrand National Library (BNF), which began in 1991 and was completed in 1995. Despite being overseen by one leading agency, the project is based on strong public involvement and the program has been modified. Powerful local associations went to court as there was not enough public space and the density was too high. In 1997, to prevent further revisions, SEMAPA developed a meaningful public involvement process to ensure the intentions of community stakeholders are incorporated in this large-scale project; developers are obliged to integrate these intentions. The role of the development agency is to select developers through a competitive process to achieve the best design outcomes. Paris Rive Gauche is not just another business district like La Défense, but a real urban neighbourhood developed around existing urban landmarks. It combines a mix of uses (offices, housing, local retail and services, green spaces) and good access to public transport. What do these projects have in common? The three regeneration initiatives presented here are all led by a single development agency financed with public money. This type of governance allows for clear leadership, which is essential to complete projects with a 30-year lifespan. Development agencies ensure through a public involvement process that these initiatives reflect local community aspirations. The creation of the ZAC as a planning instrument allows for the project’s objectives to be modified as it evolves. Development agencies have the financial capacity to sell the land below market prices and to subsidise housing for low-income households. The French planning instruments and financing mechanisms associated with public involvement in decision-making contribute to successful urban regeneration. This approach is known as “transactional urbanism”, reflecting the increasing negotiations between the development agency and the community. *Sebastien Darchen is a Lecturer in Planning, The University of Queensland **Gwendal Simon is an Assistant Professor of Planning and Urban Planning, Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée (UPEM) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Opinion: How to regenerate inner cities - lessons to learn from France

Indian cities are a study in stark contrast; glass and steel skyscrapers stand next to densely packed informal settlements, hawkers and walkers jostle for space on non-existent pavements while roads are choc a bloc with vehicular traffic. Malls selling global brands have mushroomed next to ramshackle clusters of small manufacturing units, producing and recycling everyday goods. Exclusive gated residential complexes have sprung up in environmentally sensitive areas in clear violation of land use regulations; while shanties built precariously along canals face the constant threat of evictions.&nbsp;

Given the unevenness of urban development, it seems that planning Indian cities is a futile and impossible task. The deep imbrication of formal and informal modes of urbanisation is clearly evident, as is the complicity of the state in bypassing its own planning laws, and the stark and persisting socio-economic inequalities in urban spaces.

Yet, our cities today are at the centre of the processes of globalization, liberalisation, and the accumulation of corporate capital as they generate a large share of the GDP. Therefore, there is an even greater urgency on the part of the government to create competitive world-class cities. 
 
What role will urban planning play in this urban restructuring? What will be the outcome? How has planning evolved over the last hundred years?

City planning has its origins in colonial British rule when it was used as an instrument of territorial control. It divided the city into areas that received infrastructure and those that became dumping grounds for undesirable activities &ndash; from tanneries to units producing illicit alcohol and prostitution &ndash; all couched under the narrative of promoting public health, safety, and hygiene.&nbsp;

Native elites influenced programmes of slum clearance, zoning, improvement schemes, and the location of infrastructures. These decisions were invariably linked to protecting private property or facilitating trade and commerce.&nbsp;

In the post-independence era, urban planning was codified as a long- term, rational and bureaucratic process. It evolved as a top-down, state-directed, value neutral, an expert-driven process that primarily focused on land use zoning in the interest of (an ill-defined) public good.&nbsp;

Planning laws and regulations were framed, technical and teaching institutions were developed, and instruments were borrowed from the West. Much of these grand planning exercises, however, remained on paper due to their procedural rigidity, as well as for the lack of political will. To add to it, there was institutional fragmentation, weak capacities, and absence of granulated data. To add to everything else, there were inadequate finances to implement the plans.

&nbsp;Plans turned into static artefacts; they were divorced from urban realities as well as&nbsp;the dynamic, messy, and unpredictable nature of urbanisation. Planning thus led to the displacement of the poor from the core areas, exacerbating inequality but it also created road networks, housing for different social classes, public parks, and gardens.&nbsp;

For a brief period in the mid-seventies, city planning even attempted unsuccessfully to redistribute private property and channel it into public housing and the provision of urban amenities.&nbsp;

With economic liberalisation, planning has become an instrument to unlock land values. This has entailed a shift from Master Plans to mega-project based planning that is undertaken by special purpose vehicles that bypass elected Urban Local Bodies (ULBs). Although tasked with land use and socio-economic planning for cities as part of the 74th Constitutional Amendment Act of 1992, ULBs lack autonomy to determine the future of their cities as they are circumscribed by the actions of higher levels of government.&nbsp;

There is a pervasive and uncritical faith in technology in future-proofing cities, and yet this fails to grapple with present day problems of citizens. Greenfield cities are being planned without heed to environmental considerations or climate changes. Land pooling has replaced the traditional route of using eminent domain to assemble land. New urban aspirations, urban visions, and imaginations drive contemporary planning processes; South Asian cities such as Singapore and Shanghai bear proof to this process.&nbsp;

City investment plans, bonds, credit rating play an increasingly important role in deciding future development trajectories. However, for the majority of the urban poor inhabitants who are relegated to the city margins, it remains a daily struggle to access the most basic urban services, often mediated by an emerging class of intermediaries such as non-governmental organisations and local self-appointed influential powerbrokers.&nbsp;

Fortunately, resistance to such projects has also grown over the years often stalling megaprojects, or significantly changing, modifying, adjusting or even subverting these plans. Planning is being reconceptualised as an active, democratic and dynamic arena of contestation; a multitude of voices and contradictory interests need to be heard and engaged with in order for planning to be relevant.&nbsp;

New actors are entering, contesting, and reshaping the practice of planning. This includes private planning consultants, middle-class citizen groups, subaltern groups, community activists, parastatals, international financial institutions, and private developers. Thus, a new of politics of planning and theory of planning that are rooted in the particularities of the Global South is fast emerging. It challenges the very objectives, designs, and standards of plans as well as their implementation or not.&nbsp;

It raises pertinent questions about who benefits from these plans, who gets excluded, and who should be held accountable.&nbsp;

Ongoing experiments in democratising planning from the bottom up, particularly by the urban poor and recognizing it as an important public arena for expanding rights to the city hold the key to the relevance of urban planning.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urbanisation displaced the poor from core areas but it created roads, housing and parks too

Indian cities are a study in stark contrast; glass and steel skyscrapers stand next to densely packed informal settlements, hawkers and walkers jostle for space on non-existent pavements while roads are choc a bloc with vehicular traffic. Malls selling global brands have mushroomed next to ramshackle clusters of small manufacturing units, producing and recycling everyday goods. Exclusive gated residential complexes have sprung up in environmentally sensitive areas in clear violation of land use regulations; while shanties built precariously along canals face the constant threat of evictions. Given the unevenness of urban development, it seems that planning Indian cities is a futile and impossible task. The deep imbrication of formal and informal modes of urbanisation is clearly evident, as is the complicity of the state in bypassing its own planning laws, and the stark and persisting socio-economic inequalities in urban spaces. Yet, our cities today are at the centre of the processes of globalization, liberalisation, and the accumulation of corporate capital as they generate a large share of the GDP. Therefore, there is an even greater urgency on the part of the government to create competitive world-class cities. What role will urban planning play in this urban restructuring? What will be the outcome? How has planning evolved over the last hundred years? City planning has its origins in colonial British rule when it was used as an instrument of territorial control. It divided the city into areas that received infrastructure and those that became dumping grounds for undesirable activities – from tanneries to units producing illicit alcohol and prostitution – all couched under the narrative of promoting public health, safety, and hygiene. Native elites influenced programmes of slum clearance, zoning, improvement schemes, and the location of infrastructures. These decisions were invariably linked to protecting private property or facilitating trade and commerce. In the post-independence era, urban planning was codified as a long- term, rational and bureaucratic process. It evolved as a top-down, state-directed, value neutral, an expert-driven process that primarily focused on land use zoning in the interest of (an ill-defined) public good. Planning laws and regulations were framed, technical and teaching institutions were developed, and instruments were borrowed from the West. Much of these grand planning exercises, however, remained on paper due to their procedural rigidity, as well as for the lack of political will. To add to it, there was institutional fragmentation, weak capacities, and absence of granulated data. To add to everything else, there were inadequate finances to implement the plans. Plans turned into static artefacts; they were divorced from urban realities as well as the dynamic, messy, and unpredictable nature of urbanisation. Planning thus led to the displacement of the poor from the core areas, exacerbating inequality but it also created road networks, housing for different social classes, public parks, and gardens. For a brief period in the mid-seventies, city planning even attempted unsuccessfully to redistribute private property and channel it into public housing and the provision of urban amenities. With economic liberalisation, planning has become an instrument to unlock land values. This has entailed a shift from Master Plans to mega-project based planning that is undertaken by special purpose vehicles that bypass elected Urban Local Bodies (ULBs). Although tasked with land use and socio-economic planning for cities as part of the 74th Constitutional Amendment Act of 1992, ULBs lack autonomy to determine the future of their cities as they are circumscribed by the actions of higher levels of government. There is a pervasive and uncritical faith in technology in future-proofing cities, and yet this fails to grapple with present day problems of citizens. Greenfield cities are being planned without heed to environmental considerations or climate changes. Land pooling has replaced the traditional route of using eminent domain to assemble land. New urban aspirations, urban visions, and imaginations drive contemporary planning processes; South Asian cities such as Singapore and Shanghai bear proof to this process. City investment plans, bonds, credit rating play an increasingly important role in deciding future development trajectories. However, for the majority of the urban poor inhabitants who are relegated to the city margins, it remains a daily struggle to access the most basic urban services, often mediated by an emerging class of intermediaries such as non-governmental organisations and local self-appointed influential powerbrokers. Fortunately, resistance to such projects has also grown over the years often stalling megaprojects, or significantly changing, modifying, adjusting or even subverting these plans. Planning is being reconceptualised as an active, democratic and dynamic arena of contestation; a multitude of voices and contradictory interests need to be heard and engaged with in order for planning to be relevant. New actors are entering, contesting, and reshaping the practice of planning. This includes private planning consultants, middle-class citizen groups, subaltern groups, community activists, parastatals, international financial institutions, and private developers. Thus, a new of politics of planning and theory of planning that are rooted in the particularities of the Global South is fast emerging. It challenges the very objectives, designs, and standards of plans as well as their implementation or not. It raises pertinent questions about who benefits from these plans, who gets excluded, and who should be held accountable. Ongoing experiments in democratising planning from the bottom up, particularly by the urban poor and recognizing it as an important public arena for expanding rights to the city hold the key to the relevance of urban planning.

The politics of planning Indian cities: Contradictions, inequalities and emerging trends

urban-planning

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