An attack on Saudi oil facilities on Saturday is believed to have disrupted half the country's production capacity, making the United States the only real holder of the global supply cushion via its ability to raise own output or to soften sanctions against other major oil producers.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/oil-rises-as-saudi-signals-opec-cuts-to-continue-under-new-minister-248572">Saudi Arabia</a> has yet to comment on the extent of damage on its <a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/oil-edges-down-on-lower-demand-outlook-us-china-trade-dispute-242428">oil production</a> but industry sources have said some 5-6 million barrels per day (bpd) or 5-6 per cent&nbsp;of global supply has been affected.

Saudi Arabia, the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/opec-cuts-2020-oil-demand-forecast-urges-effort-to-avert-a-new-glut-249037">Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries</a>' de-facto leader and largest producer, has been long seen as the custodian of the world's spare oil capacity.

Spare capacity is the extra oil a producing country can bring onstream and sustain at short notice, providing global markets with a cushion in the event of natural disaster, conflict or any other cause of an unplanned supply outage.

Industry sources have said Saudi Arabia will be able to restore supply within days.

A prolonged supply outage will have a major bullish impact on oil prices, which in turn will spur further gains in the US&nbsp;shale production.

The <a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/us-briefly-overtakes-saudi-arabia-as-top-oil-exporter-international-energy-agency-249182">United States has briefly overtaken Saudi Arabia</a> as the world largest crude exporter this year, only a few years after removing a ban on oil exports because of large needs at home as the world's largest oil consumer.

Analysts have repeatedly underestimated US&nbsp;output growth gains with the country now producing around 15 per cent&nbsp;of global supply.

Besides the United States, the only countries which have significant spare capacity are Iran and Venezuela.

Both are subject to US&nbsp;sanctions and have seen their exports reduced to a trickle over the past year as US&nbsp;President Donald Trump has tightened sanctions.

Iran has seen its exports falling by over 2 million bpd since the sanctions have been imposed and Venezuela have seen its exports plummeting too.

While analysts expect Venezuelan production to more or less stabilising at current levels of around 700,000-800,000 bpd for the rest of the year, Iranian oil production is forecast to fall further.

Energy Aspects has said it expects OPEC spare capacity to fall to below 1 million bpd in the fourth quarter from two million bpd in the second quarter of 2019.

WILDCARDS

OPEC member Libya is in the middle of a civil war, which threatens its ability to continue pumping oil. Another big Libyan disruption would add to the shocks and highlight the spare capacity problem.

Nigerian exports have also suffered big from disruptions.

Meanwhile, US&nbsp;crude oil production is expected to rise to new records.

However, large US&nbsp;crude output gains and slowing global demand because of a weaker global economy have contributed to a rise in oil stocks worldwide.

The International Energy Agency, which coordinates energy policies of industrialised nations, said on Saturday the markets were still well supplies despite the Saudi disruptions.

"We are massively oversupplied," said Christyan Malek, head of oil and gas research for Europe, Middle East and Africa at J.P. Morgan, adding it would take five months of a 5 million-bpd outage to take global crude supply levels back to a 40-year normal average.

"Having said that, this attack introduces a new, irreversible risk premium into the market," he added.

An attack on Saudi oil facilities on Saturday is believed to have disrupted half the country's production capacity, making the United States the only real holder of the global supply cushion via its ability to raise own output or to soften sanctions against other major oil producers.

An attack on Saudi oil facilities on Saturday is believed to have disrupted half the country's production capacity, making the United States the only real holder of the global supply cushion via its ability to raise own output or to soften sanctions against other major oil producers. Saudi Arabia has yet to comment on the extent of damage on its oil production but industry sources have said some 5-6 million barrels per day (bpd) or 5-6 per cent of global supply has been affected. Saudi Arabia, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' de-facto leader and largest producer, has been long seen as the custodian of the world's spare oil capacity. Spare capacity is the extra oil a producing country can bring onstream and sustain at short notice, providing global markets with a cushion in the event of natural disaster, conflict or any other cause of an unplanned supply outage. Industry sources have said Saudi Arabia will be able to restore supply within days. A prolonged supply outage will have a major bullish impact on oil prices, which in turn will spur further gains in the US shale production. The United States has briefly overtaken Saudi Arabia as the world largest crude exporter this year, only a few years after removing a ban on oil exports because of large needs at home as the world's largest oil consumer. Analysts have repeatedly underestimated US output growth gains with the country now producing around 15 per cent of global supply. Besides the United States, the only countries which have significant spare capacity are Iran and Venezuela. Both are subject to US sanctions and have seen their exports reduced to a trickle over the past year as US President Donald Trump has tightened sanctions. Iran has seen its exports falling by over 2 million bpd since the sanctions have been imposed and Venezuela have seen its exports plummeting too. While analysts expect Venezuelan production to more or less stabilising at current levels of around 700,000-800,000 bpd for the rest of the year, Iranian oil production is forecast to fall further. Energy Aspects has said it expects OPEC spare capacity to fall to below 1 million bpd in the fourth quarter from two million bpd in the second quarter of 2019. WILDCARDS OPEC member Libya is in the middle of a civil war, which threatens its ability to continue pumping oil. Another big Libyan disruption would add to the shocks and highlight the spare capacity problem. Nigerian exports have also suffered big from disruptions. Meanwhile, US crude oil production is expected to rise to new records. However, large US crude output gains and slowing global demand because of a weaker global economy have contributed to a rise in oil stocks worldwide. The International Energy Agency, which coordinates energy policies of industrialised nations, said on Saturday the markets were still well supplies despite the Saudi disruptions. "We are massively oversupplied," said Christyan Malek, head of oil and gas research for Europe, Middle East and Africa at J.P. Morgan, adding it would take five months of a 5 million-bpd outage to take global crude supply levels back to a 40-year normal average. "Having said that, this attack introduces a new, irreversible risk premium into the market," he added.

Global spare oil capacity in United States hands after Saudi outage

After days attempting to apply online to remain in the UK after Brexit, EU citizen Bina Gayadien was faced with the same message: her information was "insufficient".

The Dutch lawyer, a UK resident for 20 years, is one of the thousands discovering that the British government's system to process their cases is not as fast or easy as promised.

After the married mother-of-two had uploaded 60 pages of bank statements and five years worth of local authority tax bills, she faced the same issue.

The system repeatedly said she had provided "insufficient" evidence of having lived in Britain long enough.

"It seems unbelievable that the computer and all the checks that the government could make, would come back to say that people like me don't exist," Gayadien told AFP.

It's a situation all too familiar for European Union citizens applying to remain in the country after its divorce from Brussels.

After making multiple submissions and calling a support centre in northern England to argue through her case, Gayadien was eventually able to get the necessary approval.

But the experience has not left her feeling wanted in <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/pound-jumps-on-brexit-hopes-as-global-stocks-firmer-249491">Brexit </a>Britain.

"I feel kind of picked on," she said.

Minister 'delighted' with the scheme

The British government which has vowed that EU nationals living in the UK can stay is adamant its so-called EU settlement policy is working as intended.

Brandon Lewis, an interior minister, said he was "delighted" with the scheme and pointed out his department was now processing over 20,000 applications a day.

He added that complete applications were typically being processed within a few days, while those with more complicated cases in just weeks, as Britain, gears up for Brexit which is scheduled to happen at the end of next month.

"I'm not going to concede there are issues," Lewis told AFP, noting problem cases publicized in the media had often "not been as straightforward as people have said".

"Sometimes people have made a mistake in other situations people haven't been able to evidence they've been here for a long time, so our resolution team will work with them to get that evidence."

'Settled status'

The three-step process involves applicants uploading documents to prove their identity, how long they have been in Britain and any criminal convictions.

EU citizens able to show they have lived in the country for more than five years will be granted "settled status", letting them remain indefinitely.

Those in the UK for less time will be given "pre-settled status", allowing them to apply for the permanent status once they have clocked up the requisite five years.

Some will be hoping that the British parliament's attempts to delay Brexit beyond October 31 will succeed.

There are thought to be as many as 3.5 million EU nationals in Britain, who have until the end of 2020 to lodge their applications.

Updated interior ministry figures released on Thursday showed that more than 1.5 million people have already applied 300,000 in August alone.

However, advocates for EU citizens in Britain were critical of the system.

"Despite the assertions of the minister we have evidence of EU citizens accepting pre-settled status who have been in the UK for more than five years," said Maike Bohn, co-founder of The3Million

"It is unsettling that the minister is not prepared to engage with the problems many EU citizens are having with this scheme."

After days attempting to apply online to remain in the UK after Brexit, EU citizen Bina Gayadien was faced with the same message: her information was "insufficient".

After days attempting to apply online to remain in the UK after Brexit, EU citizen Bina Gayadien was faced with the same message: her information was "insufficient". The Dutch lawyer, a UK resident for 20 years, is one of the thousands discovering that the British government's system to process their cases is not as fast or easy as promised. After the married mother-of-two had uploaded 60 pages of bank statements and five years worth of local authority tax bills, she faced the same issue. The system repeatedly said she had provided "insufficient" evidence of having lived in Britain long enough. "It seems unbelievable that the computer and all the checks that the government could make, would come back to say that people like me don't exist," Gayadien told AFP. It's a situation all too familiar for European Union citizens applying to remain in the country after its divorce from Brussels. After making multiple submissions and calling a support centre in northern England to argue through her case, Gayadien was eventually able to get the necessary approval. But the experience has not left her feeling wanted in Brexit Britain. "I feel kind of picked on," she said. Minister 'delighted' with the scheme The British government which has vowed that EU nationals living in the UK can stay is adamant its so-called EU settlement policy is working as intended. Brandon Lewis, an interior minister, said he was "delighted" with the scheme and pointed out his department was now processing over 20,000 applications a day. He added that complete applications were typically being processed within a few days, while those with more complicated cases in just weeks, as Britain, gears up for Brexit which is scheduled to happen at the end of next month. "I'm not going to concede there are issues," Lewis told AFP, noting problem cases publicized in the media had often "not been as straightforward as people have said". "Sometimes people have made a mistake in other situations people haven't been able to evidence they've been here for a long time, so our resolution team will work with them to get that evidence." 'Settled status' The three-step process involves applicants uploading documents to prove their identity, how long they have been in Britain and any criminal convictions. EU citizens able to show they have lived in the country for more than five years will be granted "settled status", letting them remain indefinitely. Those in the UK for less time will be given "pre-settled status", allowing them to apply for the permanent status once they have clocked up the requisite five years. Some will be hoping that the British parliament's attempts to delay Brexit beyond October 31 will succeed. There are thought to be as many as 3.5 million EU nationals in Britain, who have until the end of 2020 to lodge their applications. Updated interior ministry figures released on Thursday showed that more than 1.5 million people have already applied 300,000 in August alone. However, advocates for EU citizens in Britain were critical of the system. "Despite the assertions of the minister we have evidence of EU citizens accepting pre-settled status who have been in the UK for more than five years," said Maike Bohn, co-founder of The3Million "It is unsettling that the minister is not prepared to engage with the problems many EU citizens are having with this scheme."

European Union citizens uneasy at UK's Brexit settlement scheme

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/uk-prime-minister-boris-johnson-under-fire-over-no-deal-brexit-assessment-249196">British Prime Minister Boris Johnson</a> denied Thursday that he had lied to Queen Elizabeth II when requesting the suspension of parliament this month in the run-up to Brexit.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/british-pm-johnson-tells-parliament-you-can-tie-my-hands-but-i-will-not-delay-brexit-248705">Johnson</a> asked the British head of state to shutter parliament for five weeks from last Tuesday, claiming it was necessary ahead of rolling out a new domestic agenda.

The unusually long suspension -- known as prorogation -- was widely seen as a bid to thwart opposition to a no-deal departure on the October 31 Brexit date, and provoked uproar across the political spectrum as well as legal challenges.

Asked if he had misled Queen Elizabeth over his motives for the suspension, which will see the House of Commons closed until October 14, Johnson said, "Absolutely not".

Meanwhile, in Brussels, EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said there was "no reason to be optimistic" about striking a possible divorce deal with Britain before a summit next month.

Johnson is adamant that the UK must leave the European Union on October 31 -- with or without a withdrawal agreement to smooth over the separation.

"We have no reason to be optimistic" that such an accord will be found in time for the crucial October 17-18 EU summit, Barnier told senior MEPs in Brussels.

Problems are mounting for Johnson, who finds himself increasingly boxed in on Brexit.

Johnson's government was forced Wednesday to release its no-deal Brexit contingency plans after a parliamentary vote.

Scotland's highest civil court on Wednesday sided with critics of the prorogation, ruling it was "unlawful" and intended to "stymie parliament".

Johnson's government has appealed against the decision and the case is set to be heard in Britain's Supreme Court next Tuesday.

In the meantime, parliament remains suspended.

Northern Ireland's High Court on Thursday dismissed several lawsuits filed there arguing the prorogation was illegal and that a no-deal Brexit would breach the terms of the province's 1998 peace accord.

Tom Brake, Brexit spokesman for the pro-EU opposition Liberal Democrats, said the government was withholding internal documents, messages and emails about the decision to prorogue parliament.

"I suspect that those documents... will confirm that the prime minister lied about the reason why," he told AFP.

"We all know that the reason he wanted to shut down parliament is because he didn't want parliament holding him to account."

'Worst-case scenario'

Johnson also vowed Thursday that Britain will be ready for a no-deal departure from the EU on October 31, despite his own government's assessment that planning remained "at a low level".

The prime minister insisted the government had been "massively accelerating" its preparations since the August 2 internal report, which was disclosed on Wednesday after MPs voted for its release.

He called the "Operation Yellowhammer" forecast, which warned of possible civil unrest and shortages of food and medicines following no deal, a "worst-case scenario".

"All the industries that matter will be ready for a no-deal Brexit," Johnson said.

The documents painted a grim picture of possible "public disorder and community tensions" as well as logjams at Channel ports, threatening supplies, after a no-deal departure.

Johnson hopeful of deal

Johnson took office in July promising to implement the referendum decision by leaving the EU on October 31 no matter what.

But he lost his parliamentary majority last week after a series of defections and expulsions from his governing Conservative Party amid opposition to his strident Brexit stance.

Ahead of the shutdown, lawmakers passed a law aimed at preventing a no-deal Brexit, but Johnson has insisted Britain will still depart the EU on schedule.

The British leader wants to renegotiate the divorce terms struck by his predecessor Theresa May, which MPs have repeatedly rejected.

In particular, he wants to change the so-called backstop provisions, which concern ways to keep the Northern Irish border with the Republic of Ireland open in all scenarios.

But European leaders accuse him of offering no viable alternatives.

Officials in Brussels increasingly accuse Johnson of conducting a sham negotiation as political cover while planning to crash out without an accord.

And European parliamentary leaders insisted Thursday there could be no divorce deal without the backstop.

Johnson insisted he remained "very hopeful" of a deal.&nbsp;

"It will be hard, but I think we can get there," he said.

 
&nbsp;

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson denied Thursday that he had lied to Queen Elizabeth II when requesting the suspension of parliament this month in the run-up to Brexit.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson denied Thursday that he had lied to Queen Elizabeth II when requesting the suspension of parliament this month in the run-up to Brexit. Johnson asked the British head of state to shutter parliament for five weeks from last Tuesday, claiming it was necessary ahead of rolling out a new domestic agenda. The unusually long suspension -- known as prorogation -- was widely seen as a bid to thwart opposition to a no-deal departure on the October 31 Brexit date, and provoked uproar across the political spectrum as well as legal challenges. Asked if he had misled Queen Elizabeth over his motives for the suspension, which will see the House of Commons closed until October 14, Johnson said, "Absolutely not". Meanwhile, in Brussels, EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said there was "no reason to be optimistic" about striking a possible divorce deal with Britain before a summit next month. Johnson is adamant that the UK must leave the European Union on October 31 -- with or without a withdrawal agreement to smooth over the separation. "We have no reason to be optimistic" that such an accord will be found in time for the crucial October 17-18 EU summit, Barnier told senior MEPs in Brussels. Problems are mounting for Johnson, who finds himself increasingly boxed in on Brexit. Johnson's government was forced Wednesday to release its no-deal Brexit contingency plans after a parliamentary vote. Scotland's highest civil court on Wednesday sided with critics of the prorogation, ruling it was "unlawful" and intended to "stymie parliament". Johnson's government has appealed against the decision and the case is set to be heard in Britain's Supreme Court next Tuesday. In the meantime, parliament remains suspended. Northern Ireland's High Court on Thursday dismissed several lawsuits filed there arguing the prorogation was illegal and that a no-deal Brexit would breach the terms of the province's 1998 peace accord. Tom Brake, Brexit spokesman for the pro-EU opposition Liberal Democrats, said the government was withholding internal documents, messages and emails about the decision to prorogue parliament. "I suspect that those documents... will confirm that the prime minister lied about the reason why," he told AFP. "We all know that the reason he wanted to shut down parliament is because he didn't want parliament holding him to account." 'Worst-case scenario' Johnson also vowed Thursday that Britain will be ready for a no-deal departure from the EU on October 31, despite his own government's assessment that planning remained "at a low level". The prime minister insisted the government had been "massively accelerating" its preparations since the August 2 internal report, which was disclosed on Wednesday after MPs voted for its release. He called the "Operation Yellowhammer" forecast, which warned of possible civil unrest and shortages of food and medicines following no deal, a "worst-case scenario". "All the industries that matter will be ready for a no-deal Brexit," Johnson said. The documents painted a grim picture of possible "public disorder and community tensions" as well as logjams at Channel ports, threatening supplies, after a no-deal departure. Johnson hopeful of deal Johnson took office in July promising to implement the referendum decision by leaving the EU on October 31 no matter what. But he lost his parliamentary majority last week after a series of defections and expulsions from his governing Conservative Party amid opposition to his strident Brexit stance. Ahead of the shutdown, lawmakers passed a law aimed at preventing a no-deal Brexit, but Johnson has insisted Britain will still depart the EU on schedule. The British leader wants to renegotiate the divorce terms struck by his predecessor Theresa May, which MPs have repeatedly rejected. In particular, he wants to change the so-called backstop provisions, which concern ways to keep the Northern Irish border with the Republic of Ireland open in all scenarios. But European leaders accuse him of offering no viable alternatives. Officials in Brussels increasingly accuse Johnson of conducting a sham negotiation as political cover while planning to crash out without an accord. And European parliamentary leaders insisted Thursday there could be no divorce deal without the backstop. Johnson insisted he remained "very hopeful" of a deal. "It will be hard, but I think we can get there," he said.

Boris Johnson denies lying to Queen in Brexit crisis

Boris Johnson will meet EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker in Luxembourg on Monday, officials said, as the British prime minister bids to broker a<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/boris-johnson-denies-lying-to-queen-in-brexit-crisis-249286"> Brexit</a> compromise ahead of the October 31 deadline.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/boris-johnson-denies-lying-to-queen-in-brexit-crisis-249286">Johnson</a> will "hold talks with President Juncker on Brexit," his Downing Street office said without providing further details.

EU spokeswoman Natasha Bertaud told reporters that the two would have a working lunch that was arranged by "common accord".

The British pound gained one per cent against the dollar in Friday trading on speculation that the two sides were edging closer to a compromise over the contentious Irish border issue.

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Johnson refuses to sign off on an agreement that includes the "backstop," a compromise intended to keep the frontier open for trade and crossings in all post-Brexit scenarios.

It was accepted by his predecessor Theresa May but repeatedly failed to win backing in the British parliament.

Eurosceptics fear the stop-gap measures designed for the border between EU member Ireland and the UK province of Northern Ireland would keep Britain indefinitely trapped in bloc's trade zone.

The Times reported on Friday that the DUP, a small Northern Irish party that had helped the ruling Conservatives in London form a majority in parliament since 2017, was now ready to abide by some EU rules.

But DUP leader Arlene Foster denied the report, calling it "nonsense".

"UK must leave as one nation," she tweeted.

Johnson no longer commands a working majority in the House of Commons, and lawmakers have instructed him to seek a deadline extension from Brussels if no deal emerges.

Johnson has refused, vowing to get Brexit done on schedule and insisting he would strike a new deal.

Boris Johnson will meet EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker in Luxembourg on Monday, officials said, as the British prime minister bids to broker a Brexit compromise ahead of the October 31 deadline.

Boris Johnson will meet EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker in Luxembourg on Monday, officials said, as the British prime minister bids to broker a Brexit compromise ahead of the October 31 deadline. Johnson will "hold talks with President Juncker on Brexit," his Downing Street office said without providing further details. EU spokeswoman Natasha Bertaud told reporters that the two would have a working lunch that was arranged by "common accord". The British pound gained one per cent against the dollar in Friday trading on speculation that the two sides were edging closer to a compromise over the contentious Irish border issue. Watch Video: × Johnson refuses to sign off on an agreement that includes the "backstop," a compromise intended to keep the frontier open for trade and crossings in all post-Brexit scenarios. It was accepted by his predecessor Theresa May but repeatedly failed to win backing in the British parliament. Eurosceptics fear the stop-gap measures designed for the border between EU member Ireland and the UK province of Northern Ireland would keep Britain indefinitely trapped in bloc's trade zone. The Times reported on Friday that the DUP, a small Northern Irish party that had helped the ruling Conservatives in London form a majority in parliament since 2017, was now ready to abide by some EU rules. But DUP leader Arlene Foster denied the report, calling it "nonsense". "UK must leave as one nation," she tweeted. Johnson no longer commands a working majority in the House of Commons, and lawmakers have instructed him to seek a deadline extension from Brussels if no deal emerges. Johnson has refused, vowing to get Brexit done on schedule and insisting he would strike a new deal.

UK's Johnson to meet European Commission's Juncker on Monday for Brexit talks

The British government`s plans for a no-deal Brexit warn of severe disruption to cross-Channel routes, affecting the supply of medicines and certain types of fresh foods, and say that protests and counter-protests will take place across the country, accompanied by a possible rise in public disorder.

The "Operation Yellowhammer" worst-case assumptions published on Wednesday were prepared on August&nbsp;2, the government said, nine days after Boris Johnson became prime minister, and form the basis of its no-deal planning.

The document, which looks at the worst that could happen if Britain leaves the European Union on October 31 without a deal, said public and business readiness for such an outcome would likely be low, in part because of continued political confusion in the run-up to Brexit day.

It said lorries could have to wait up to two and a half days to cross the English Channel and British citizens could be subject to increased immigration checks at EU border posts.

"Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease," it said. "There is a risk that panic buying will cause or exacerbate food supply disruption." 
It said the flow of traffic across the English channel could be reduced by as much as 60% on the first day after a no-deal Brexit. The worst disruption could last for up to three months.

Traffic queues could affect fuel deliveries, disrupting supplies in London and south-east England, and panic buying could cause shortages in other parts of the country, it said.

Cross-border financial services would be affected as would information-sharing between police and security services, according to the document.

Documents from Operation Yellowhammer were first published in the Sunday Times newspaper on August 18.

Michael Gove, the minister in charge of coordinating "no-deal" preparations, said then that the document was old and did not reflect current levels of preparedness.

He said on Wednesday that assumptions contained in the five-page published document were currently being reviewed, but they were the most recent complete iteration of the plans.

The opposition Labour Party said the document confirmed the severe risks of a no-deal Brexit.

"It is completely irresponsible for the government to have tried to ignore these stark warnings and prevent the public from seeing the evidence," said Labour`s Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer.

"Boris Johnson must now admit that he has been dishonest with the British people about the consequence of a No Deal Brexit."

In releasing the document, Gove was acceding to a request from lawmakers. But he refused to make public the advice of government advisers about Johnson`s decision to prorogue, or suspend, parliament from Monday until October 14.

Scotland`s highest court of appeal ruled that decision was unlawful on Wednesday, prompting calls for lawmakers to return to work.

Gove said the publication of advice given to ministers would be an "inappropriate and disproportionate" use of parliamentary procedure, and the individuals would have no right to reply. 
&nbsp;

The British government`s plans for a no-deal Brexit warn of severe disruption to cross-Channel routes, affecting the supply of medicines and certain types of fresh foods, and say that protests and counter-protests will take place across the country, accompanied by a possible rise in public disorder.

The British government`s plans for a no-deal Brexit warn of severe disruption to cross-Channel routes, affecting the supply of medicines and certain types of fresh foods, and say that protests and counter-protests will take place across the country, accompanied by a possible rise in public disorder. The "Operation Yellowhammer" worst-case assumptions published on Wednesday were prepared on August 2, the government said, nine days after Boris Johnson became prime minister, and form the basis of its no-deal planning. The document, which looks at the worst that could happen if Britain leaves the European Union on October 31 without a deal, said public and business readiness for such an outcome would likely be low, in part because of continued political confusion in the run-up to Brexit day. It said lorries could have to wait up to two and a half days to cross the English Channel and British citizens could be subject to increased immigration checks at EU border posts. "Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease," it said. "There is a risk that panic buying will cause or exacerbate food supply disruption." It said the flow of traffic across the English channel could be reduced by as much as 60% on the first day after a no-deal Brexit. The worst disruption could last for up to three months. Traffic queues could affect fuel deliveries, disrupting supplies in London and south-east England, and panic buying could cause shortages in other parts of the country, it said. Cross-border financial services would be affected as would information-sharing between police and security services, according to the document. Documents from Operation Yellowhammer were first published in the Sunday Times newspaper on August 18. Michael Gove, the minister in charge of coordinating "no-deal" preparations, said then that the document was old and did not reflect current levels of preparedness. He said on Wednesday that assumptions contained in the five-page published document were currently being reviewed, but they were the most recent complete iteration of the plans. The opposition Labour Party said the document confirmed the severe risks of a no-deal Brexit. "It is completely irresponsible for the government to have tried to ignore these stark warnings and prevent the public from seeing the evidence," said Labour`s Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer. "Boris Johnson must now admit that he has been dishonest with the British people about the consequence of a No Deal Brexit." In releasing the document, Gove was acceding to a request from lawmakers. But he refused to make public the advice of government advisers about Johnson`s decision to prorogue, or suspend, parliament from Monday until October 14. Scotland`s highest court of appeal ruled that decision was unlawful on Wednesday, prompting calls for lawmakers to return to work. Gove said the publication of advice given to ministers would be an "inappropriate and disproportionate" use of parliamentary procedure, and the individuals would have no right to reply.

UK's worst-case no-deal Brexit plan warns of food shortages, public disorder

UK government releases No-Deal Brexit report and the report predicts shortage of Fuel and Food. To know more watch the video

WION Dispatch: Mandy Clark on UK's financial system

Britain has never apologised for the 1919 Jallianwala Bagh massacre at Amritsar but the head of the Church of England prostrated himself to say sorry in a personal capacity and "in the name of Christ". British troops fired on thousands of unarmed men, women and children in Amritsar on April 13, 1919, killing 379 people according to colonial-era records. Indian figures put the total closer to 1,000. "I can't speak for the British Government as I am not an official of the British Government. But I can speak in the name of Christ," Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby said as he visited the location in northern India on Tuesday.

Jallianwala Bagh massacre: Archbishop's sorry puts UK govt to shame

Detailed Profile Of John Bercow, The Iconic Speaker Of House Of Commons Who Has Decided To Step Down

Gravitas: Bercow- A celebrity of Brexit Era & Outgoing speaker of House of Commons

Britain will make a decision soon about whether to allow <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/huawei-denies-us-allegations-of-technology-theft-247310">Huawei equipment </a>to be used in its 5G networks but China must play by the rules if it gets access to Western markets, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said.

Asked when a decision would be made by the United Kingdom on Huawei, Wallace said on Wednesday: "The government will come to its position soon. We will get to a decision pretty soon.

He added: "We will not allow anything to compromise our sensitive networks in the UK but our technical advice is that there are places we can go to mitigate any security risk.

"This is more than just technical, this is also about behaviour," he told reporters.

"It wasn't that long ago that the United Kingdom and other nations called out China publicly for some of its cyber activity. And if we are going to allow countries access to our markets, I think we should all expect a code of behaviour which is fair play."

Britain will make a decision soon about whether to allow Huawei equipment to be used in its 5G networks but China must play by the rules if it gets access to Western markets, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said.

Britain will make a decision soon about whether to allow Huawei equipment to be used in its 5G networks but China must play by the rules if it gets access to Western markets, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said. Asked when a decision would be made by the United Kingdom on Huawei, Wallace said on Wednesday: "The government will come to its position soon. We will get to a decision pretty soon. He added: "We will not allow anything to compromise our sensitive networks in the UK but our technical advice is that there are places we can go to mitigate any security risk. "This is more than just technical, this is also about behaviour," he told reporters. "It wasn't that long ago that the United Kingdom and other nations called out China publicly for some of its cyber activity. And if we are going to allow countries access to our markets, I think we should all expect a code of behaviour which is fair play."

Will decide on Huawei soon but China must play by rules: UK

There is another big blow for UK's PM Boris Johnson. Scotland's highest civilian court ruled that the suspension of UK's Parliament is unlawful.

Scotland's highest civilian court: Suspension of UK Parliament is unlawful

Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby on Tuesday visited Jallianwala Bagh memorial and said that he was both 'ashamed and sorry' for the crime which was committed at that site in 1919. Welby also lied on the floor of the memorial after reading out a prayer to God to seek forgiveness. While paying homage at the Jallianwala Bagh memorial, Welby said, "I cannot speak for the British Government. I am not the official of the government but can speak in the name of Christ. It is a place for sin and redemption. You have remembered what they have done and their memory will live."

Archbishop: Jallianwala Bagh massacre a huge shame

Thailand rolled out plain cigarette packaging on Tuesday, the first country in Asia to introduce what activists say is an effective way to reduce the appeal of smoking.

In 2012 Australia became the first country to require tobacco products to be sold without colourful brand logos. Since then a host of mostly European countries have followed suit, including France, Hungary, and the UK.

Thailand agreed last year to comply with the World Health Organisation guidelines, and packs officially showed up in stores Tuesday.

Businesses have until December 8 to phase out stocks before facing fines of up to 40,000 baht ($1,300).

The standardised packaging includes a graphic picture of tobacco's effects on the body and the logo-free brand name written in plain font.

Keeping a uniform typeface below graphic depictions of smoking-related illnesses will make the products less attractive to buyers, said Prakit Vathesatogkit, vice-chair of the NGO Southeast Asia Tobacco Control Alliance.

"For non-smokers, for kids, they are less likely to start," Prakit, who was involved in advocacy efforts, told AFP.

There are more than 246 million cigarette smokers in Southeast Asia, where campaigners say low prices help make it one of the largest tobacco-consuming regions in the world.

In Thailand, the health impact is huge and smoking-related illnesses are a leading cause of death.

Singapore is set to implement similar restrictions on packaging next year.

Thailand rolled out plain cigarette packaging on Tuesday, the first country in Asia to introduce what activists say is an effective way to reduce the appeal of smoking.

Thailand rolled out plain cigarette packaging on Tuesday, the first country in Asia to introduce what activists say is an effective way to reduce the appeal of smoking. In 2012 Australia became the first country to require tobacco products to be sold without colourful brand logos. Since then a host of mostly European countries have followed suit, including France, Hungary, and the UK. Thailand agreed last year to comply with the World Health Organisation guidelines, and packs officially showed up in stores Tuesday. Businesses have until December 8 to phase out stocks before facing fines of up to 40,000 baht ($1,300). The standardised packaging includes a graphic picture of tobacco's effects on the body and the logo-free brand name written in plain font. Keeping a uniform typeface below graphic depictions of smoking-related illnesses will make the products less attractive to buyers, said Prakit Vathesatogkit, vice-chair of the NGO Southeast Asia Tobacco Control Alliance. "For non-smokers, for kids, they are less likely to start," Prakit, who was involved in advocacy efforts, told AFP. There are more than 246 million cigarette smokers in Southeast Asia, where campaigners say low prices help make it one of the largest tobacco-consuming regions in the world. In Thailand, the health impact is huge and smoking-related illnesses are a leading cause of death. Singapore is set to implement similar restrictions on packaging next year.

Thailand first in Asia to roll out plain cigarette packaging

House of Commons Speaker John Bercow, champion of Britain's parliament in its move to rein in <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/pm-boris-johnson-will-go-to-eu-to-seek-a-deal-not-a-brexit-delay-finance-minister-248420">Prime Minister Boris Johnson</a> over Brexit, said on Monday he would stand down, issuing a warning to the government not to "degrade" parliament.

Bercow, known for his thundering cries of "Order! Order!" and his scathing put-downs of misbehaving lawmakers, has been the target of fury from Johnson's government, which accused him of breaking rules to let lawmakers force a delay to Britain's exit from the EU.

With less than two months until Britain's most important political decision in decades, Bercow, whose position is formally meant to be neutral, helped give lawmakers the chance to strip control of the outcome away from the government.

Last week, lawmakers defeated Johnson to pass a law ordering Johnson to seek a delay from the October&nbsp;31 Brexit deadline.

In the speech announcing his plan to resign, Bercow fixed his gaze on the benches where ministers sit and delivered a direct warning to the government: "We degrade this parliament at our peril."

Bercow, 56, was given a standing ovation from many members of the lower house as he announced his plan to stand down in the coming weeks - particularly by those on the opposition benches.

"When the history books come to be written, you will be described as one of the great reforming speakers of the House of Commons," said opposition Labour Party lawmaker Hilary Benn, who led the passage of the law to try and stop a no-deal Brexit.

"In every decision, you have made, you have put one consideration above everything else: Your wish to enable the House of Commons to discuss matters and to have a view."

A day earlier, Johnson's business minister, Andrea Leadsom, had called Bercow's decision to give lawmakers a chance to pass legislation against the wishes of the government a "flagrant abuse" of the parliamentary process.

"It acts in complete disregard to the will of the people, not just on Brexit, but on whom they have chosen to govern them," she wrote in the Mail on Sunday. "The Speaker hasn’t just bent the rules, he has broken them."

In Monday's speech, Bercow said he would not contest the next election if parliament voted later on Monday in favour of calling one.

If, as expected, lawmakers reject the government's attempt to call an election, he said he would quit on October 31,&nbsp;the Brexit deadline that lawmakers voted last week to postpone.

Bercow has been speaker since 2009, a role traditionally responsible for ensuring decorum during the debate, but which took on unusual power this year when Johnson and his predecessor Theresa May failed to get their Brexit policies past parliament.

In a country with no written constitution and a parliament ruled by convention, it fell to him to interpret rules that normally give the government control over parliament's agenda.

Bercow's cries of "Order! Order!" has travelled around the world in viral video clips, as have his quips.

"Don't tell me, young man, what I can and can't say," he bellowed at one heckler on Monday. "If you're not interested, leave the chamber. I'm not remotely interested in your pettifogging objection, chuntered inelegantly from a sedentary position."

During his ten-year term, he has survived an outcry over expense claims,&nbsp;&nbsp;including costly use of official cars and overseas trips, and has faced allegations of bullying from former members of staff, which he has denied.

Pro-Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, one of the architects of the decision to leave the European Union, summed up the eurosceptic sentiment in a two-word tweet: "Good Riddance."

House of Commons Speaker John Bercow, champion of Britain's parliament in its move to rein in Prime Minister Boris Johnson over Brexit, said on Monday he would stand down, issuing a warning to the government not to "degrade" parliament.

House of Commons Speaker John Bercow, champion of Britain's parliament in its move to rein in Prime Minister Boris Johnson over Brexit, said on Monday he would stand down, issuing a warning to the government not to "degrade" parliament. Bercow, known for his thundering cries of "Order! Order!" and his scathing put-downs of misbehaving lawmakers, has been the target of fury from Johnson's government, which accused him of breaking rules to let lawmakers force a delay to Britain's exit from the EU. With less than two months until Britain's most important political decision in decades, Bercow, whose position is formally meant to be neutral, helped give lawmakers the chance to strip control of the outcome away from the government. Last week, lawmakers defeated Johnson to pass a law ordering Johnson to seek a delay from the October 31 Brexit deadline. In the speech announcing his plan to resign, Bercow fixed his gaze on the benches where ministers sit and delivered a direct warning to the government: "We degrade this parliament at our peril." Bercow, 56, was given a standing ovation from many members of the lower house as he announced his plan to stand down in the coming weeks - particularly by those on the opposition benches. "When the history books come to be written, you will be described as one of the great reforming speakers of the House of Commons," said opposition Labour Party lawmaker Hilary Benn, who led the passage of the law to try and stop a no-deal Brexit. "In every decision, you have made, you have put one consideration above everything else: Your wish to enable the House of Commons to discuss matters and to have a view." A day earlier, Johnson's business minister, Andrea Leadsom, had called Bercow's decision to give lawmakers a chance to pass legislation against the wishes of the government a "flagrant abuse" of the parliamentary process. "It acts in complete disregard to the will of the people, not just on Brexit, but on whom they have chosen to govern them," she wrote in the Mail on Sunday. "The Speaker hasn’t just bent the rules, he has broken them." In Monday's speech, Bercow said he would not contest the next election if parliament voted later on Monday in favour of calling one. If, as expected, lawmakers reject the government's attempt to call an election, he said he would quit on October 31, the Brexit deadline that lawmakers voted last week to postpone. Bercow has been speaker since 2009, a role traditionally responsible for ensuring decorum during the debate, but which took on unusual power this year when Johnson and his predecessor Theresa May failed to get their Brexit policies past parliament. In a country with no written constitution and a parliament ruled by convention, it fell to him to interpret rules that normally give the government control over parliament's agenda. Bercow's cries of "Order! Order!" has travelled around the world in viral video clips, as have his quips. "Don't tell me, young man, what I can and can't say," he bellowed at one heckler on Monday. "If you're not interested, leave the chamber. I'm not remotely interested in your pettifogging objection, chuntered inelegantly from a sedentary position." During his ten-year term, he has survived an outcry over expense claims, including costly use of official cars and overseas trips, and has faced allegations of bullying from former members of staff, which he has denied. Pro-Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, one of the architects of the decision to leave the European Union, summed up the eurosceptic sentiment in a two-word tweet: "Good Riddance."

House of Commons Speaker John Bercow to step down

Both houses of the UK parliament passed a law to stop 'No Deal Brexit' on 31st October. Watch this video to know more.

Both houses of UK parliament passed a law to stop 'No Deal Brexit' on 31st October

Britain's&nbsp;governing&nbsp;Conservative Party plans to&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;candidate&nbsp;against&nbsp;parliamentary&nbsp;speaker&nbsp;John Bercow at the&nbsp;next&nbsp;national&nbsp;election, business minister Andrea Leadsom said, accusing him of "flagrant abuse" of his power.

Breaking with convention, Leadsom said it was right for the&nbsp;Conservatives&nbsp;to&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;candidate&nbsp;against&nbsp;Bercow. With Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit strategy having plunged parliament into chaos, the&nbsp;next&nbsp;national&nbsp;election&nbsp;could take place soon.

Writing in the Mail on Sunday newspaper, Leadsom said Bercow had "failed us" when he allowed lawmakers to seize control of parliament on Tuesday, putting in place a plan to force Johnson to seek a <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/uk-government-gives-up-trying-to-stop-brexit-delay-bill-in-parliament-247721">Brexit</a> delay if parliament has not approved either a deal or consented to leaving without one by October 19.

Johnson has said he would rather be "dead in a ditch" than seek that extension which businesses say is needed to prevent economic damage from a no-deal Brexit - and has promised to lead Britain out of the bloc by October 31 with or without a deal.

"The&nbsp;Speaker&nbsp;is the senior officer of the House of Commons, and its highest authority. A politically impartial, independent umpire of proceedings, the&nbsp;Speaker&nbsp;is in place to protect the constitution and oversee the behaviour of the House," Leadsom wrote.

"What we saw on Tuesday was a flagrant abuse of this process."

Britain's governing Conservative Party plans to stand a candidate against parliamentary speaker John Bercow at the next national election, business minister Andrea Leadsom said, accusing him of "flagrant abuse" of his power.

Britain's governing Conservative Party plans to stand a candidate against parliamentary speaker John Bercow at the next national election, business minister Andrea Leadsom said, accusing him of "flagrant abuse" of his power. Breaking with convention, Leadsom said it was right for the Conservatives to stand a candidate against Bercow. With Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit strategy having plunged parliament into chaos, the next national election could take place soon. Writing in the Mail on Sunday newspaper, Leadsom said Bercow had "failed us" when he allowed lawmakers to seize control of parliament on Tuesday, putting in place a plan to force Johnson to seek a Brexit delay if parliament has not approved either a deal or consented to leaving without one by October 19. Johnson has said he would rather be "dead in a ditch" than seek that extension which businesses say is needed to prevent economic damage from a no-deal Brexit - and has promised to lead Britain out of the bloc by October 31 with or without a deal. "The Speaker is the senior officer of the House of Commons, and its highest authority. A politically impartial, independent umpire of proceedings, the Speaker is in place to protect the constitution and oversee the behaviour of the House," Leadsom wrote. "What we saw on Tuesday was a flagrant abuse of this process."

UK's governing Conservatives to stand candidate against speaker at next election

London's India house targeted twice in less than a month. Watch this video to know more.

London's India house targeted twice in less than a month

India has officially raised the anti-India protests and consequent vandalisation of Indian High Commission's property both with British High Commission in Delhi and the British Foreign Office in London.

India summoned the British Deputy High Commissioner Jan Thompson in Delhi on Wednesday, a day after the protest took place. The protest, in which two people were arrested by UK's Metropolitan Police took place on Tuesday by members of the Pakistani diaspora and Khalistani who threw objects, one of which broke the windowpane of the mission.

The Ministry of External Affairs had issued a statement saying, "We consider these incidents to be unacceptable and have strongly urged the Government of UK to take action against those involved."

The Indian High Commissioner in London Ruchi Ghanashyam met DG(Political) Foreign office and raised the issue of violent protest. The DG had said the "physical damage to High Commission property was completely unacceptable" adding "safety and security of all diplomatic missions and their staff are of utmost concern to UK".

This is the second time in a month that large protest by Pakistani diaspora has taken place outside the Indian High Commission in London. The last was on August 15, India's Independence Day in which four people were arrested.&nbsp;

India has officially raised the anti-India protests and consequent vandalisation of Indian High Commission's property both with British High Commission in Delhi and the British Foreign Office in London.

India has officially raised the anti-India protests and consequent vandalisation of Indian High Commission's property both with British High Commission in Delhi and the British Foreign Office in London. India summoned the British Deputy High Commissioner Jan Thompson in Delhi on Wednesday, a day after the protest took place. The protest, in which two people were arrested by UK's Metropolitan Police took place on Tuesday by members of the Pakistani diaspora and Khalistani who threw objects, one of which broke the windowpane of the mission. The Ministry of External Affairs had issued a statement saying, "We consider these incidents to be unacceptable and have strongly urged the Government of UK to take action against those involved." The Indian High Commissioner in London Ruchi Ghanashyam met DG(Political) Foreign office and raised the issue of violent protest. The DG had said the "physical damage to High Commission property was completely unacceptable" adding "safety and security of all diplomatic missions and their staff are of utmost concern to UK". This is the second time in a month that large protest by Pakistani diaspora has taken place outside the Indian High Commission in London. The last was on August 15, India's Independence Day in which four people were arrested.

Vandalism of Indian High Commission in London: India raises matter in Delhi, UK

Zimbabwe's former colonial ruler Britain said Zimbabweans had "suffered for too long" under former president Robert Mugabe, who died Friday. "We express our condolences to those who mourn Robert Mugabe's death.

Zimbabwe's former colonial ruler Britain said Zimbabweans had "suffered for too long" under former president Robert Mugabe, who died Friday. "We express our condolences to those who mourn Robert Mugabe's death. However, Zimbabweans suffered for too long as a result of Mugabe's autocratic role," the foreign ministry said in a statement. It noted "mixed emotions" in Zimbabwe at the death of Mugabe, adding, "We hope that in this new era, Zimbabwe can continue to be set on a more democratic and prosperous path." Mugabe won the 1980 elections at the end of a black nationalist guerrilla war against white-minority rule in the rebel colony of Rhodesia. Peter Hain, a leading anti-apartheid campaigner, told AFP he was "elated" at the time. "It was a huge moment in history when he became president in a landslide and all of us cheered him on at the time." But he said Mugabe then "betrayed all of those values of justice and human rights and democracy under the freedom struggle and became a corrupt dictator". In 2000, Mugabe's supporters violently took over white-owned farms a watershed moment in relations between the West and their protege. Zimbabwe was suspended in 2002 from the Commonwealth, a grouping of former British colonies, and pulled out voluntarily in 2003. Last year, President Emmerson Mnangagwa applied to rejoin the Commonwealth after ousting Mugabe.

Zimbabweans 'suffered for too long' under Mugabe: UK

British opposition parties will discuss on Friday how to respond to Boris Johnson's bid to call a snap election after the prime minister said he would rather die in a ditch than delay the planned October 31 departure from the European Union.

As the United Kingdom spins towards an election, Brexit remains up in the air more than three years after Britons voted to leave the bloc in a 2016 referendum. Options range from a turbulent 'no-deal' exit to abandoning the whole endeavour.

British lawmakers will on Monday hold another vote on a motion on whether to hold an early election, the leader of the House of Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg said.

But opposition parties, including the Labour Party, want to ensure that an election does not allow Johnson to lead the United Kingdom out of the EU without a deal on October 31.

Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn will hold a conference call with other opposition parties on Friday, a Labour spokesman said. Johnson on Thursday said he would rather be "dead in a ditch" than delay Brexit.

Former Prime Minister John Major said Johnson should fire Dominic Cummings, the advisor behind his high-stakes Brexit strategy.

When asked about Major's call, Cummings told Reuters, "Really? Trust the people"

British opposition parties will discuss on Friday how to respond to Boris Johnson's bid to call a snap election after the prime minister said he would rather die in a ditch than delay the planned October 31 departure from the European Union.

British opposition parties will discuss on Friday how to respond to Boris Johnson's bid to call a snap election after the prime minister said he would rather die in a ditch than delay the planned October 31 departure from the European Union. As the United Kingdom spins towards an election, Brexit remains up in the air more than three years after Britons voted to leave the bloc in a 2016 referendum. Options range from a turbulent 'no-deal' exit to abandoning the whole endeavour. British lawmakers will on Monday hold another vote on a motion on whether to hold an early election, the leader of the House of Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg said. But opposition parties, including the Labour Party, want to ensure that an election does not allow Johnson to lead the United Kingdom out of the EU without a deal on October 31. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn will hold a conference call with other opposition parties on Friday, a Labour spokesman said. Johnson on Thursday said he would rather be "dead in a ditch" than delay Brexit. Former Prime Minister John Major said Johnson should fire Dominic Cummings, the advisor behind his high-stakes Brexit strategy. When asked about Major's call, Cummings told Reuters, "Really? Trust the people"

British opposition parties discuss PM Boris Johnson's Brexit election gamble

By Chris Stafford

Despite repeatedly insisting he didn’t want a general election, Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, has now tried and failed to get parliament to support one. It now looks like he’ll try again or seek a vote by some other route. Having lost his majority and control of parliament, a general election seems almost inevitable now. The big question, though, is when it will happen.

Johnson and his allies would prefer the vote to happen before October 31 – the date the UK is currently due to leave the European Union. Everyone else wants to wait until after that date.

Holding the vote before October 31 would allow Johnson to claim the Brexit high ground and hopefully nullify the threat of the Brexit Party, saying that only a vote for the Conservatives will get the UK out by Halloween. If he manages to win the election, he can then organise further votes in parliament, overriding those of the past few days and allowing him to take the UK out of the EU without a deal.

Why is Labour Holding Back?

Despite having been pushing for a general election for a long time now, Jeremy Corbyn is now hanging back. The reason for this apparent change of heart is that, at this point in time, many are concerned that a general election may play into Johnson’s hands. If Labour waits and triggers an election so that it takes place after October 31, it means that an extension may have already been granted by the EU. The UK would then, in their view, be safe from a “no-deal” until at least the end of the year.

Politically, it also makes more sense for Labour to hold off on supporting an election for a little while longer. If an extension is granted and a general election is held in November or afterwards, Johnson will have broken his key promise of getting the UK out by October 31. That leaves him more vulnerable to losing votes to the Brexit Party.

Plus, if the past few days are anything to go by, Johnson and his team may have imploded even further by then. He has kicked 21 MPs out of his party and his own brother has quit the government. Things are looking difficult for the prime minister.

How to Call It

Since the introduction of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, if a prime minister wants to call an election before the scheduled date, they need two-thirds of MPs in parliament to vote for it. Johnson tried this on September 4 and failed.

Alternatively, a general election could be triggered by a vote of no confidence in the government. If the motion is successful, a general election will be triggered after 14 days if no new government with the support of parliament can be formed. There is talk that Labour may try to do this soon, however, the chances of it happening may be limited by debate on opposition benches as to exactly when the election should be.

But it has even been suggested that Johnson may call a vote of no confidence in himself. If he can manage to “lose” that, he can try to prevent a new government being formed and force a general election.

Is no-deal Off The Table?

A no-deal Brexit is still very much a possibility, but current events make it less likely for the time being. With no government majority in parliament, the ability of the prime minister to pursue no deal is severely limited. This is assuming Johnson plays by the rules, of course.

 
(Chris Stafford is Doctoral Researcher, University of Nottingham)

(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-general-election-when-and-how-could-it-happen-123027">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

By Chris Stafford Despite repeatedly insisting he didn’t want a general election, Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, has now tried and failed to get parliament to support one.

By Chris Stafford Despite repeatedly insisting he didn’t want a general election, Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, has now tried and failed to get parliament to support one. It now looks like he’ll try again or seek a vote by some other route. Having lost his majority and control of parliament, a general election seems almost inevitable now. The big question, though, is when it will happen. Johnson and his allies would prefer the vote to happen before October 31 – the date the UK is currently due to leave the European Union. Everyone else wants to wait until after that date. Holding the vote before October 31 would allow Johnson to claim the Brexit high ground and hopefully nullify the threat of the Brexit Party, saying that only a vote for the Conservatives will get the UK out by Halloween. If he manages to win the election, he can then organise further votes in parliament, overriding those of the past few days and allowing him to take the UK out of the EU without a deal. Why is Labour Holding Back? Despite having been pushing for a general election for a long time now, Jeremy Corbyn is now hanging back. The reason for this apparent change of heart is that, at this point in time, many are concerned that a general election may play into Johnson’s hands. If Labour waits and triggers an election so that it takes place after October 31, it means that an extension may have already been granted by the EU. The UK would then, in their view, be safe from a “no-deal” until at least the end of the year. Politically, it also makes more sense for Labour to hold off on supporting an election for a little while longer. If an extension is granted and a general election is held in November or afterwards, Johnson will have broken his key promise of getting the UK out by October 31. That leaves him more vulnerable to losing votes to the Brexit Party. Plus, if the past few days are anything to go by, Johnson and his team may have imploded even further by then. He has kicked 21 MPs out of his party and his own brother has quit the government. Things are looking difficult for the prime minister. How to Call It Since the introduction of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, if a prime minister wants to call an election before the scheduled date, they need two-thirds of MPs in parliament to vote for it. Johnson tried this on September 4 and failed. Alternatively, a general election could be triggered by a vote of no confidence in the government. If the motion is successful, a general election will be triggered after 14 days if no new government with the support of parliament can be formed. There is talk that Labour may try to do this soon, however, the chances of it happening may be limited by debate on opposition benches as to exactly when the election should be. But it has even been suggested that Johnson may call a vote of no confidence in himself. If he can manage to “lose” that, he can try to prevent a new government being formed and force a general election. Is no-deal Off The Table? A no-deal Brexit is still very much a possibility, but current events make it less likely for the time being. With no government majority in parliament, the ability of the prime minister to pursue no deal is severely limited. This is assuming Johnson plays by the rules, of course. (Chris Stafford is Doctoral Researcher, University of Nottingham) (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

UK general election: when and how could it happen?

Analysing The Changing Dynamics In India-United Kingdom Ties In The Context Of Brexit India is one of the most important bilateral priorities for the United Kingdom. On #WionEdit, Palki charts the changing dynamics in India's ties with the UK. Any friction in the ties with India would hurt UK's economy, especially given the uncertainties surrounding the Brexit.

WION Edit: Friction in ties with India likely to hurt UK more

The British pound topped $1.23 on Thursday, hitting a one-month peak on fading prospects of a "no-deal" Brexit after a series of parliamentary votes tore up Prime Minister Boris Johnson's hardline stance.

By about 1020 GMT, sterling had surged to $1.2347, the highest level since July 29 having plunged to multi-year lows Tuesday.

Asian and European stock markets mainly rose Thursday, but London was hit by the strong pound that hurts multinationals whose earnings are mostly in foreign currencies.

Parliament is currently rushing through legislation designed to keep Johnson from breaking Britain off from the European Union without a trade deal.

They appeared on course to do so by Monday a victory that would be accomplished just ahead of the five-week shutdown of parliament Johnson controversially ordered last month.

'Fresh legs on the pound'

"News that the bill to stop a no-deal Brexit should complete its passage through the House of Lords by Friday afternoon has put fresh legs on the pound's rally," City Index analyst Fiona Cincotta told AFP.

"After a volatile start, sterling has now pushed over $1.23 as Britain moves further back from the brink of a no-deal Brexit.

"Whilst there are clearly some hurdles still to be overcome, pound traders are feeling significantly more optimistic about the UK's eventual exit from the EU," she added.

The embattled British currency had tanked on Tuesday to $1.1959 which was the pound's weakest level since 1985 except for a 2016 "flash crash".

Yet it has since rallied on rising hopes that Britain will not quit the European Union without a trade deal on October 31.

"The pound has been behaving as a tidy barometer of the odds of a no-deal Brexit," Rabobank analyst Jane Foley told AFP.

"Just as fears of a no-deal Brexit pushed the pound below $1.20 earlier this week, expectations that MPs will succeed in delaying Brexit beyond October 31 have resulting in a relief rally back to $1.23.

"The pound is clearly not out of the woods with political uncertainty still at very elevated levels&nbsp;but the risk of a disorderly Brexit next month at least looks set to be pushed off the table," Foley added.

The bill would force Johnson to seek a three-month Brexit extension until January 31 should no deal emerge from an EU summit in Brussels on October 17-18.

Stocks mainly climb

Elsewhere, equities mostly rose, building on the previous day's advance as investors were cheered by a number of positive developments on trade, Hong Kong and Europe.

Markets were already on an upward trajectory after the leader of Hong Kong on Wednesday withdrew a controversial extradition bill that had sparked months of sometimes violent protests in the financial hub.

But the good news kept coming as the day wore on, with news that Italy had formed a new moderate, pro-European government, while British MPs moved closer to preventing a no-deal Brexit.

Then on Thursday morning, China announced it would resume trade talks with the United States in Washington next month.

However, Hong Kong ended with marginal losses.&nbsp;

Having soared almost four per cent on Wednesday on the back of Chief Executive Carrie Lam's shock decision, profit-takers moved in.

Lam on Thursday urged pro-democracy protesters to end their demonstrations but her surprise decision to bow to one of their key demands was condemned as too little, too late.

The British pound topped $1.23 on Thursday, hitting a one-month peak on fading prospects of a "no-deal" Brexit after a series of parliamentary votes tore up Prime Minister Boris Johnson's hardline stance.

The British pound topped $1.23 on Thursday, hitting a one-month peak on fading prospects of a "no-deal" Brexit after a series of parliamentary votes tore up Prime Minister Boris Johnson's hardline stance. By about 1020 GMT, sterling had surged to $1.2347, the highest level since July 29 having plunged to multi-year lows Tuesday. Asian and European stock markets mainly rose Thursday, but London was hit by the strong pound that hurts multinationals whose earnings are mostly in foreign currencies. Parliament is currently rushing through legislation designed to keep Johnson from breaking Britain off from the European Union without a trade deal. They appeared on course to do so by Monday a victory that would be accomplished just ahead of the five-week shutdown of parliament Johnson controversially ordered last month. 'Fresh legs on the pound' "News that the bill to stop a no-deal Brexit should complete its passage through the House of Lords by Friday afternoon has put fresh legs on the pound's rally," City Index analyst Fiona Cincotta told AFP. "After a volatile start, sterling has now pushed over $1.23 as Britain moves further back from the brink of a no-deal Brexit. "Whilst there are clearly some hurdles still to be overcome, pound traders are feeling significantly more optimistic about the UK's eventual exit from the EU," she added. The embattled British currency had tanked on Tuesday to $1.1959 which was the pound's weakest level since 1985 except for a 2016 "flash crash". Yet it has since rallied on rising hopes that Britain will not quit the European Union without a trade deal on October 31. "The pound has been behaving as a tidy barometer of the odds of a no-deal Brexit," Rabobank analyst Jane Foley told AFP. "Just as fears of a no-deal Brexit pushed the pound below $1.20 earlier this week, expectations that MPs will succeed in delaying Brexit beyond October 31 have resulting in a relief rally back to $1.23. "The pound is clearly not out of the woods with political uncertainty still at very elevated levels but the risk of a disorderly Brexit next month at least looks set to be pushed off the table," Foley added. The bill would force Johnson to seek a three-month Brexit extension until January 31 should no deal emerge from an EU summit in Brussels on October 17-18. Stocks mainly climb Elsewhere, equities mostly rose, building on the previous day's advance as investors were cheered by a number of positive developments on trade, Hong Kong and Europe. Markets were already on an upward trajectory after the leader of Hong Kong on Wednesday withdrew a controversial extradition bill that had sparked months of sometimes violent protests in the financial hub. But the good news kept coming as the day wore on, with news that Italy had formed a new moderate, pro-European government, while British MPs moved closer to preventing a no-deal Brexit. Then on Thursday morning, China announced it would resume trade talks with the United States in Washington next month. However, Hong Kong ended with marginal losses. Having soared almost four per cent on Wednesday on the back of Chief Executive Carrie Lam's shock decision, profit-takers moved in. Lam on Thursday urged pro-democracy protesters to end their demonstrations but her surprise decision to bow to one of their key demands was condemned as too little, too late.

Pound tops $1.23 on fading no-deal Brexit prospect

British PM Boris Johnson's brother Jo Johnson quits as MP. Watch video to know more.

British PM Boris Johnson's brother Jo Johnson quits as MP

UK PM faces two setbacks in one day. Watch video to know more.

UK PM faces two setbacks in one day

The leader of the Britain's House of Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg, adopted a laid-back posture on the benches as lawmakers debated an opposition motion to take control of parliamentary business in order to legally rule out a no-deal Brexit.

UK: Leader snoozes during Brexit debate

Leaving the European Union without a trade deal would cost Britain at least $16 billion in lost EU sales, and probably far more after accounting for indirect effects and other markets, a report by the U.N. trade agency UNCTAD said on Tuesday (September 3).

"No deal" Brexit would cost at least $16 billion in UK sales to the EU – U.N.

By Paul Whiteley and Harold D Clarke

After a showdown between prime minister Boris Johnson and MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit, the UK appears on course for an election in a matter of weeks.

Much parliamentary action will now play out to determine exactly when the vote will take place. The government remains eager to ensure the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) by October 31. Oppositions parties are eager to ensure this does not happen in a no-deal scenario. But developments at Westminster mean an election at some point soon is almost certain. The key question, therefore, what might the outcome of such an election be in such unpredictable times?

We have considered the results across 138 polls conducted between November 4, 2018, and August 22 2019.

All polls contain a combination of information and noise, the latter resulting from errors in sampling, in interviewing and in other factors which are an inherent part of survey methodology. By “pooling the polls” the figure maximises the information and minimises the noise because the samples are very large and rogue polls which happen by chance do not dominate the picture.

Both Conservative and Labour support declined markedly in the run-up to the European Parliament elections on May 23. Since then, Conservative fortunes have partially revived, but party support is only in the low 30 per cent range – nearly 10 per cent less than its vote in the 2017 general election.

Labour is in even worse shape, languishing in the low to mid-20s. Polls on voting intentions go back as far as the 1930s, but it is safe to say that such a car crash in support for both major parties has never been seen before. So we are in uncharted territory.

The major parties’ poll numbers indicate that, in a two-party contest, the apparent “Boris bounce” in Conservative vote intentions would very likely deliver a majority in the House of Commons.

One important reason why Labour has fallen so far behind is the large decline in Jeremy Corbyn’s popularity since the 2017 general election. His approval ratings then were around 45 per cent. But by August this year they had fallen below 20 per cent and are now very stable from one poll to the next. A large majority of voters appear to have reached the conclusion that he is not up to the job of being prime minister. Negative public feelings about Corbyn are bound to be a drag on his party’s efforts to close the gap with the Conservatives.

Lib Dem Threat

The real problem for the Conservatives is not Labour but the continuing popularity of the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party. The Liberal Democrats are now consistently polling in the high teens – twice what previously had been typical. In the 2015 general election, the Liberal Democrats’ vote collapsed and the Conservatives took 27 seats from them. While the Liberal Democrats recovered a little in the subsequent 2017 general election, they still only had 12 MPs.

The situation has now completely changed. If the current surge in Liberal Democrat voting intentions holds, there is a good chance that the party will win back all of the seats it lost to the Conservatives in 2015. In addition, the Lib Dems are likely to win extra seats from disgruntled Conservative Remainers who will defect in response to the Conservative’s hard-line stance on Brexit.

It is true that the Liberal Democrats will take votes from Labour as well as the Conservatives, but the policy distance between the Lib Dems and Labour on relations with the EU is now much smaller than it is with the Conservatives. The danger for the Conservatives is that Remainers are likely to vote tactically as a result, supporting the Liberal Democrats in seats in the West Country, for example, and Labour in seats in the North-East and Merseyside.

What of the Brexit Party?

There is a narrative which suggests that Brexit Party support will collapse in a forthcoming election much like UKIP’s did in 2017. But this ignores a key difference between Brexit Party and Conservative supporters. In our national survey conducted shortly after the European elections, 78 per cent of Brexit Party identifiers wanted to leave the EU with no deal. This compared with only 46 per cent of Conservative identifiers who wanted this outcome.

In a rally in London, Nigel Farage committed his party to no deal. He was quick to point out that Johnson had voted for Theresa May’s agreement when it came up for the third time in parliament – and was therefore not to be trusted. The Prime Minister is taking a very hard line against Conservative rebels by threatening to remove the whip from them, but at the same time he is arguing that he wants a deal with the EU – something which is an anathema to the Brexit party supporters.

This lack of trust in the prime minister to deliver a no-deal Brexit puts him in a tricky situation – he needs most of the Brexit Party supporters to produce a no-deal outcome. Given his insistence that he is still seeking a deal with Brussels, Johnson is unlikely to win Brexit Party voters until there is actually a no-deal Brexit.

The Brexit Party will not take seats in a snap election, but it could easily stymie the Conservatives’ chances of winning.

The prime minister has had to seek an early election since the alternative was to stagger on without a majority and with parliamentary action to stop a no-deal Brexit becoming a reality. The campaign hasn’t formally begun yet, but the posturing is underway. The outcome, though, remains very difficult to predict.

(Paul Whiteley is Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex; Harold D Clarke is Ashbel Smith Professor, the University of Texas at Dallas)

(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-general-election-if-so-heres-what-the-polls-are-telling-us-122759">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

By Paul Whiteley and Harold D Clarke After a showdown between prime minister Boris Johnson and MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit, the UK appears on course for an election in a matter of weeks.

By Paul Whiteley and Harold D Clarke After a showdown between prime minister Boris Johnson and MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit, the UK appears on course for an election in a matter of weeks. Much parliamentary action will now play out to determine exactly when the vote will take place. The government remains eager to ensure the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) by October 31. Oppositions parties are eager to ensure this does not happen in a no-deal scenario. But developments at Westminster mean an election at some point soon is almost certain. The key question, therefore, what might the outcome of such an election be in such unpredictable times? We have considered the results across 138 polls conducted between November 4, 2018, and August 22 2019. All polls contain a combination of information and noise, the latter resulting from errors in sampling, in interviewing and in other factors which are an inherent part of survey methodology. By “pooling the polls” the figure maximises the information and minimises the noise because the samples are very large and rogue polls which happen by chance do not dominate the picture. Both Conservative and Labour support declined markedly in the run-up to the European Parliament elections on May 23. Since then, Conservative fortunes have partially revived, but party support is only in the low 30 per cent range – nearly 10 per cent less than its vote in the 2017 general election. Labour is in even worse shape, languishing in the low to mid-20s. Polls on voting intentions go back as far as the 1930s, but it is safe to say that such a car crash in support for both major parties has never been seen before. So we are in uncharted territory. The major parties’ poll numbers indicate that, in a two-party contest, the apparent “Boris bounce” in Conservative vote intentions would very likely deliver a majority in the House of Commons. One important reason why Labour has fallen so far behind is the large decline in Jeremy Corbyn’s popularity since the 2017 general election. His approval ratings then were around 45 per cent. But by August this year they had fallen below 20 per cent and are now very stable from one poll to the next. A large majority of voters appear to have reached the conclusion that he is not up to the job of being prime minister. Negative public feelings about Corbyn are bound to be a drag on his party’s efforts to close the gap with the Conservatives. Lib Dem Threat The real problem for the Conservatives is not Labour but the continuing popularity of the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party. The Liberal Democrats are now consistently polling in the high teens – twice what previously had been typical. In the 2015 general election, the Liberal Democrats’ vote collapsed and the Conservatives took 27 seats from them. While the Liberal Democrats recovered a little in the subsequent 2017 general election, they still only had 12 MPs. The situation has now completely changed. If the current surge in Liberal Democrat voting intentions holds, there is a good chance that the party will win back all of the seats it lost to the Conservatives in 2015. In addition, the Lib Dems are likely to win extra seats from disgruntled Conservative Remainers who will defect in response to the Conservative’s hard-line stance on Brexit. It is true that the Liberal Democrats will take votes from Labour as well as the Conservatives, but the policy distance between the Lib Dems and Labour on relations with the EU is now much smaller than it is with the Conservatives. The danger for the Conservatives is that Remainers are likely to vote tactically as a result, supporting the Liberal Democrats in seats in the West Country, for example, and Labour in seats in the North-East and Merseyside. What of the Brexit Party? There is a narrative which suggests that Brexit Party support will collapse in a forthcoming election much like UKIP’s did in 2017. But this ignores a key difference between Brexit Party and Conservative supporters. In our national survey conducted shortly after the European elections, 78 per cent of Brexit Party identifiers wanted to leave the EU with no deal. This compared with only 46 per cent of Conservative identifiers who wanted this outcome. In a rally in London, Nigel Farage committed his party to no deal. He was quick to point out that Johnson had voted for Theresa May’s agreement when it came up for the third time in parliament – and was therefore not to be trusted. The Prime Minister is taking a very hard line against Conservative rebels by threatening to remove the whip from them, but at the same time he is arguing that he wants a deal with the EU – something which is an anathema to the Brexit party supporters. This lack of trust in the prime minister to deliver a no-deal Brexit puts him in a tricky situation – he needs most of the Brexit Party supporters to produce a no-deal outcome. Given his insistence that he is still seeking a deal with Brussels, Johnson is unlikely to win Brexit Party voters until there is actually a no-deal Brexit. The Brexit Party will not take seats in a snap election, but it could easily stymie the Conservatives’ chances of winning. The prime minister has had to seek an early election since the alternative was to stagger on without a majority and with parliamentary action to stop a no-deal Brexit becoming a reality. The campaign hasn’t formally begun yet, but the posturing is underway. The outcome, though, remains very difficult to predict. (Paul Whiteley is Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex; Harold D Clarke is Ashbel Smith Professor, the University of Texas at Dallas) (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

UK general election? If so, here’s what the polls are telling us

There are all eyes on the Palace of Westminister. Only 59 days left for the Brexit. Opposition MPs will try to take control of the proceedings. Reports claimed that conservatives lose the majority. There is a massive protest outside the house as well. Watch this video to know more.

Report: Conservatives lose majority in UK Parliament during Brexit showdown

There are all eyes on the Palace of Westminister. Only 59 days left for the Brexit. Opposition MPs will try to take control of the proceedings. There is a massive protest outside the house as well. Watch this video to know more.

UK PM Boris Johnson addresses during the Brexit showdown at British Parliament

There are all eyes on the Palace of Westminister. Only 59 days left for the Brexit. Opposition MPs will try to take control of the proceedings. There is massive protest outside the house as well. Watch this video to know more.

Your Story: Brexit showdown at British Parliament, 59 days to Brexit

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