From Sadrist movement to Coordination Framework: Who are Iraq’s competing Shi’ite groups

Gulf Arab states are unlikely to be deterred from dialogue to improve ties with Iran after a hardline judge won the presidency but their talks with Tehran might become tougher, analysts said.

Prospects for better relations between Muslim Shi'ite Iran and Sunni Gulf Arab monarchies could ultimately hinge on progress to revive Tehran's 2015 nuclear accord with world powers, they said, after Ebrahim Raisi won Friday's election.

The Iranian judge and cleric, who is subject to US sanctions, takes office in August, while nuclear talks in Vienna under outgoing President Hassan Rouhani, a more pragmatic cleric, are ongoing.

Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/ultraconservative-cleric-ebrahim-raisi-wins-irans-presidential-election-392598">Ultraconservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi wins Iran's presidential election</a>

Saudi Arabia and Iran, longtime regional foes, began direct talks in April to contain tensions at the same time as global powers have been embroiled in nuclear negotiations.

"Iran has now sent a clear message that they are tilting to a more radical, more conservative position," said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a UAE political analyst, adding that Raisi's election might make improving Gulf ties a tougher challenge.

"Nevertheless, Iran is not in a position to become more radical ... because the region is becoming very difficult and very dangerous," he added.

The United Arab Emirates, whose commercial hub Dubai has been a trade gateway for Iran, and Oman, which has often played a regional mediation role, were swift to congratulate Raisi.

Saudi Arabia has yet to comment.

Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-cutting-forces-missile-batteries-in-middle-east-392557">US cutting forces, missile batteries in Middle East</a>

Raisi, an implacable critic of the West and an ally of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate power in Iran, has voiced support for continuing the nuclear negotiations.

"If the Vienna talks succeed and there is a better situation with America, then (with) hardliners in power, who are close to the supreme leader, the situation may improve," said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of Gulf Research Center.

Leverage

A revived nuclear deal and the lifting of US sanctions on the Islamic Republic would boost Raisi, easing Iran's economic crisis and offering leverage in Gulf talks, said Jean-Marc Rickli, an analyst at Geneva Centre for Security Policy.

Neither Iran nor Gulf Arabs want a return to the kind of tensions seen in 2019 that spiralled after the US killing, under former US President <a href="https://www.wionews.com/topics/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>, of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. Gulf states blamed Iran or its proxies for a spate of attacks on oil tankers and Saudi oil plants.

A perception that Washington was now disengaging militarily from the area under US President <a href="https://www.wionews.com/topics/joe-biden">Joe Biden</a> has prompted a more pragmatic Gulf approach, analysts said.

Nevertheless, Biden has demanded Iran rein in its missile programme and end its support for proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi movement in Yemen, demands that have strong support from Gulf Arab nations.

"The Saudis have realised they can no longer rely on the Americans for their security ... and have seen that Iran has the means to really put pressure on the kingdom through direct attacks and also with the quagmire of Yemen," Rickli said.

Saudi-Iran talks have focused mainly on Yemen, where a military campaign led by Riyadh against the Iran-aligned Houthi movement for over six years no longer has US backing.

Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/cautious-welcome-for-biden-in-gulf-amid-yet-uncertain-iran-policy-358313">Cautious welcome for Biden in Gulf amid yet uncertain Iran policy</a>

The UAE has maintained contacts with Tehran since 2019, while also forging ties with Israel, Iran's arch regional foe.

Sanam Vakil, an analyst at Britain's Chatham House, wrote last week that regional conversations, particularly on maritime security, were expected to continue but "can only gain momentum if Tehran demonstrates meaningful goodwill".

&nbsp;

Gulf Arab states are unlikely to be deterred from dialogue to improve ties with Iran after a hardline judge won the presidency but their talks with Tehran might become tougher, analysts said.

Gulf Arab states are unlikely to be deterred from dialogue to improve ties with Iran after a hardline judge won the presidency but their talks with Tehran might become tougher, analysts said. Prospects for better relations between Muslim Shi'ite Iran and Sunni Gulf Arab monarchies could ultimately hinge on progress to revive Tehran's 2015 nuclear accord with world powers, they said, after Ebrahim Raisi won Friday's election. The Iranian judge and cleric, who is subject to US sanctions, takes office in August, while nuclear talks in Vienna under outgoing President Hassan Rouhani, a more pragmatic cleric, are ongoing. Also read | Ultraconservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi wins Iran's presidential election Saudi Arabia and Iran, longtime regional foes, began direct talks in April to contain tensions at the same time as global powers have been embroiled in nuclear negotiations. "Iran has now sent a clear message that they are tilting to a more radical, more conservative position," said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a UAE political analyst, adding that Raisi's election might make improving Gulf ties a tougher challenge. "Nevertheless, Iran is not in a position to become more radical ... because the region is becoming very difficult and very dangerous," he added. The United Arab Emirates, whose commercial hub Dubai has been a trade gateway for Iran, and Oman, which has often played a regional mediation role, were swift to congratulate Raisi. Saudi Arabia has yet to comment. Also read | US cutting forces, missile batteries in Middle East Raisi, an implacable critic of the West and an ally of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate power in Iran, has voiced support for continuing the nuclear negotiations. "If the Vienna talks succeed and there is a better situation with America, then (with) hardliners in power, who are close to the supreme leader, the situation may improve," said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of Gulf Research Center. Leverage A revived nuclear deal and the lifting of US sanctions on the Islamic Republic would boost Raisi, easing Iran's economic crisis and offering leverage in Gulf talks, said Jean-Marc Rickli, an analyst at Geneva Centre for Security Policy. Neither Iran nor Gulf Arabs want a return to the kind of tensions seen in 2019 that spiralled after the US killing, under former US President Donald Trump, of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. Gulf states blamed Iran or its proxies for a spate of attacks on oil tankers and Saudi oil plants. A perception that Washington was now disengaging militarily from the area under US President Joe Biden has prompted a more pragmatic Gulf approach, analysts said. Nevertheless, Biden has demanded Iran rein in its missile programme and end its support for proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi movement in Yemen, demands that have strong support from Gulf Arab nations. "The Saudis have realised they can no longer rely on the Americans for their security ... and have seen that Iran has the means to really put pressure on the kingdom through direct attacks and also with the quagmire of Yemen," Rickli said. Saudi-Iran talks have focused mainly on Yemen, where a military campaign led by Riyadh against the Iran-aligned Houthi movement for over six years no longer has US backing. Also read | Cautious welcome for Biden in Gulf amid yet uncertain Iran policy The UAE has maintained contacts with Tehran since 2019, while also forging ties with Israel, Iran's arch regional foe. Sanam Vakil, an analyst at Britain's Chatham House, wrote last week that regional conversations, particularly on maritime security, were expected to continue but "can only gain momentum if Tehran demonstrates meaningful goodwill".

As Iran veers right, ties with Gulf Arabs may hinge on nuclear pact

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/lebanese-police-clash-with-anti-government-protesters-268354">Lebanese</a>&nbsp;troops lobbed tear gas on Tuesday to disperse&nbsp;supporters&nbsp;of Shi'ite groups&nbsp;Hezbollah&nbsp;and&nbsp;Amal&nbsp;who tried to storm a square in&nbsp;Beirut&nbsp;in response to a video that purportedly offended Shi'ite figures, witnesses and media reports said.

Hundreds of youths on motorcycles waving their party and religious flags gathered in downtown&nbsp;Beirut&nbsp;chanting "Shi'ites, Shi'ites" and setting fire to tires. They hurled stones and fireworks at security forces standing nearby, witnesses said.

Ignoring calls for restraint by politicians, the youths tried to break a security cordon to storm the square where demonstrators have set up tents as part of an anti-government protest that has been going on for weeks.

In the vicinity of the area close to the main road that links the capital's eastern and western sections, scores of youths had burnt tires, smashed office buildings and torched several cars, live coverage by local television stations showed.

The protesters camped in the square have been targeted by <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/lebanese-protesters-clash-with-supporters-of-hezbollah-amal-in-beirut-264299">Shi'ite groups</a> in the past angered by chants against their political leaders, although Tuesday's violence was of an overtly sectarian nature.

The video, which inflamed passions in a country where sectarian divisions run deep, was purportedly made by an expatriate&nbsp;Lebanese&nbsp;Sunni from the northern city of Tripoli and released on social media.

In the predominately Sunni populated city of Saida in southern Lebanon, groups of masked youths stormed into the main square where they set ablaze several tents set up by demonstrators who have camped for weeks, local television stations said.

Lebanon has been gripped by a historic wave of protests since October&nbsp;17 leading to the resignation of <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/lebanese-pm-saad-al-hariri-resigns-as-crisis-turns-violent-258682">Saad al-Hariri</a> as prime minister, amid anger at the government's failure to address the country's worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war.

More than seven weeks since Hariri quit, politicians have been unable to agree on a new administration despite the deepening financial crisis.

The impasse took a violent turn at the weekend when&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/clashes-rock-beirut-as-security-forces-fire-tear-gas-at-protest-268499">Beirut</a>&nbsp;was clouded in tear gas as security forces clashed with protesters who blame the ruling elite for corruption and bad governance. Dozens were wounded.

Lebanese troops lobbed tear gas on Tuesday to disperse supporters of Shi'ite groups Hezbollah and Amal who tried to storm a square in Beirut in response to a video that purportedly offended Shi'ite figures, witnesses and media reports said.

Lebanese troops lobbed tear gas on Tuesday to disperse supporters of Shi'ite groups Hezbollah and Amal who tried to storm a square in Beirut in response to a video that purportedly offended Shi'ite figures, witnesses and media reports said. Hundreds of youths on motorcycles waving their party and religious flags gathered in downtown Beirut chanting "Shi'ites, Shi'ites" and setting fire to tires. They hurled stones and fireworks at security forces standing nearby, witnesses said. Ignoring calls for restraint by politicians, the youths tried to break a security cordon to storm the square where demonstrators have set up tents as part of an anti-government protest that has been going on for weeks. In the vicinity of the area close to the main road that links the capital's eastern and western sections, scores of youths had burnt tires, smashed office buildings and torched several cars, live coverage by local television stations showed. The protesters camped in the square have been targeted by Shi'ite groups in the past angered by chants against their political leaders, although Tuesday's violence was of an overtly sectarian nature. The video, which inflamed passions in a country where sectarian divisions run deep, was purportedly made by an expatriate Lebanese Sunni from the northern city of Tripoli and released on social media. In the predominately Sunni populated city of Saida in southern Lebanon, groups of masked youths stormed into the main square where they set ablaze several tents set up by demonstrators who have camped for weeks, local television stations said. Lebanon has been gripped by a historic wave of protests since October 17 leading to the resignation of Saad al-Hariri as prime minister, amid anger at the government's failure to address the country's worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. More than seven weeks since Hariri quit, politicians have been unable to agree on a new administration despite the deepening financial crisis. The impasse took a violent turn at the weekend when Beirut was clouded in tear gas as security forces clashed with protesters who blame the ruling elite for corruption and bad governance. Dozens were wounded.

Lebanese army clashes with supporters of Hezbollah, Amal in Beirut

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From Sadrist movement to Coordination Framework: Who are Iraq’s competing Shi’ite groups

As Iran veers right, ties with Gulf Arabs may hinge on nuclear pact

Lebanese army clashes with supporters of Hezbollah, Amal in Beirut