Prediction markets, platforms that allow users to wager on future events, are facing growing scrutiny as suspicious trading activity raises concerns about insider information. The spotlight intensified after a US Army special forces soldier involved in a mission targeting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was charged with using classified intelligence to place bets tied to the operation. Here’s a closer look at how these platforms work and why they are drawing attention.<h2>What are prediction markets?</h2>Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi function similarly to gambling platforms, but instead of focusing on sports, users bet on real-world events. These can range from political outcomes and global events to weather forecasts and even social media activity. For example, users might bet on when Keir Starmer could leave office, how frequently Elon Musk might post online, or temperature trends in cities like Paris. Participants profit if their predictions are correct, while platforms earn revenue by charging transaction fees. With millions of users, these markets now handle billions of dollars in wagers across topics like elections, tariffs, and oil prices.&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/shocking-kash-patel-was-arrested-twice-before-fbi-role-details-from-2005-letter-resurface-amid-new-allegations-1777071901768">Shocking! Kash Patel was arrested twice before FBI role. Details from 2005 letter resurface amid new allegations</a><h2>Are these markets legal?</h2>Globally, prediction markets are largely legal. However, the situation is more complex in the United States. Polymarket had been unavailable domestically for years but recently resumed limited operations. Meanwhile, Kalshi operates under regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, offering a wider selection of markets to American users. Some users bypass restrictions by using VPNs to access international platforms. Unlike traditional bookmakers, these platforms argue they function as exchanges, facilitating “trades” rather than setting odds.<h2>Can they predict real-world events?</h2>Possibly. Research suggests that collective forecasting, often referred to as “the wisdom of crowds”, can outperform individual experts. As a result, prediction market data can offer insights into likely outcomes in politics, economics, and global affairs.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/videos/israel-ignores-lebanon-truce-war-rages-with-hezbollah-un-says-lebanon-cannot-be-another-gaza-1777055411706/embed">https://www.wionews.com/videos/israel-ignores-lebanon-truce-war-rages-with-hezbollah-un-says-lebanon-cannot-be-another-gaza-1777055411706/embed</a><h2>What are the risks?</h2>Concerns have grown over the potential misuse of insider information. In the latest case, a US soldier allegedly earned over $400,000 by betting on outcomes tied to a military operation in Venezuela. Similar concerns arose before major events like the American-Israeli strikes on Iran and the Oscars, where unusual betting patterns correctly anticipated outcomes. An analysis by The New York Times found a surge in bets predicting a US strike on Iran shortly before it occurred, raising suspicions of privileged information being used.<h2>Regulatory backlash grows</h2>In response, several US states have moved to restrict or ban prediction markets. Both Polymarket and Kalshi say they are strengthening safeguards. Kalshi recently banned political candidates from betting on their own races. The White House has also warned staff against using insider knowledge to place bets tied to geopolitical events.<h2>A concept with a long history</h2>While prediction markets are gaining traction today, the concept is not new. The Iowa Electronic Markets, launched in 1988, is an early example focused on political forecasting. In 2003, the Pentagon explored launching a platform to predict events such as terrorist attacks. However, the idea faced strong backlash and was quickly abandoned.

Prediction markets like Polymarket face scrutiny after a US soldier allegedly used classified Maduro raid intel to earn $400K, raising legal concerns

Prediction markets, platforms that allow users to wager on future events, are facing growing scrutiny as suspicious trading activity raises concerns about insider information. The spotlight intensified after a US Army special forces soldier involved in a mission targeting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was charged with using classified intelligence to place bets tied to the operation. Here’s a closer look at how these platforms work and why they are drawing attention. What are prediction markets? Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi function similarly to gambling platforms, but instead of focusing on sports, users bet on real-world events. These can range from political outcomes and global events to weather forecasts and even social media activity. For example, users might bet on when Keir Starmer could leave office, how frequently Elon Musk might post online, or temperature trends in cities like Paris. Participants profit if their predictions are correct, while platforms earn revenue by charging transaction fees. With millions of users, these markets now handle billions of dollars in wagers across topics like elections, tariffs, and oil prices. Also Read: Shocking! Kash Patel was arrested twice before FBI role. Details from 2005 letter resurface amid new allegations Are these markets legal? Globally, prediction markets are largely legal. However, the situation is more complex in the United States. Polymarket had been unavailable domestically for years but recently resumed limited operations. Meanwhile, Kalshi operates under regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, offering a wider selection of markets to American users. Some users bypass restrictions by using VPNs to access international platforms. Unlike traditional bookmakers, these platforms argue they function as exchanges, facilitating “trades” rather than setting odds. Can they predict real-world events? Possibly. Research suggests that collective forecasting, often referred to as “the wisdom of crowds”, can outperform individual experts. As a result, prediction market data can offer insights into likely outcomes in politics, economics, and global affairs. https://www.wionews.com/videos/israel-ignores-lebanon-truce-war-rages-with-hezbollah-un-says-lebanon-cannot-be-another-gaza-1777055411706/embed What are the risks? Concerns have grown over the potential misuse of insider information. In the latest case, a US soldier allegedly earned over $400,000 by betting on outcomes tied to a military operation in Venezuela. Similar concerns arose before major events like the American-Israeli strikes on Iran and the Oscars, where unusual betting patterns correctly anticipated outcomes. An analysis by The New York Times found a surge in bets predicting a US strike on Iran shortly before it occurred, raising suspicions of privileged information being used. Regulatory backlash grows In response, several US states have moved to restrict or ban prediction markets. Both Polymarket and Kalshi say they are strengthening safeguards. Kalshi recently banned political candidates from betting on their own races. The White House has also warned staff against using insider knowledge to place bets tied to geopolitical events. A concept with a long history While prediction markets are gaining traction today, the concept is not new. The Iowa Electronic Markets, launched in 1988, is an early example focused on political forecasting. In 2003, the Pentagon explored launching a platform to predict events such as terrorist attacks. However, the idea faced strong backlash and was quickly abandoned.

Prediction markets face scrutiny after a US soldier allegedly used classified Maduro raid intel to earn $400K, raising insider trading concerns

What are prediction markets? How they work and why they are under scrutiny

The day after US President Donald Trump announced a sudden pause in strikes against Iran last month, the White House issued an internal warning to staff about misusing their positions to make well-timed bets in financial markets. According to people familiar with the matter, the White House Management Office sent a staff-wide email on March 24. The warning came just a day after Trump revealed the policy shift on Truth Social. Notably, about 15 minutes before the announcement, a surge of unusual activity was recorded in futures markets.&nbsp;In less than two minutes, more than $760 million worth of oil futures contracts were traded, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Separately, three accounts on Polymarket reportedly earned over $600,000 by correctly predicting the timing of this week’s Iranian ceasefire. The timing of these trades prompted critics, including several Democrats, to question whether advance knowledge of the decision had been used for profit. The White House confirmed the authenticity of the internal email. Trump spokesman Davis Ingle told The Wall Street Journal that the only special interest that will ever guide President Trump is the best interest of the American people.&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/melania-trump-denies-epstein-links-emails-maxwell-connection-and-what-we-know-so-far-1775779954401">Melania Trump denies Epstein links: Emails, Maxwell connection and what we know so far</a>&nbsp;At present, there is no evidence of leaks or misuse of inside information by administration officials. However, the rise of crypto-based prediction markets has created new ethical concerns. These platforms allow users to place bets on geopolitical events and withdraw profits anonymously, raising fears about potential misuse of sensitive information.Existing ethics rules already prohibit federal employees from gambling on government property and from using nonpublic information for personal gain. A senior administration official described the email as a timely “refresher,” particularly as suspicious large trades in futures markets have dominated recent headlines.&nbsp;“President Trump has been crystal clear,” Ingle said, “while he seeks a strong and profitable stock market for everyone, members of Congress and other government officials should be prohibited from using nonpublic information for financial benefit.” He dismissed allegations of wrongdoing as “baseless and irresponsible reporting.”&nbsp;Despite the denial, unusual winning bets have fueled public anger, including among some of Trump’s supporters.Congressional Democrats argue that current regulations are insufficient for an evolving financial landscape where large profits can be made anonymously. Senator Richard Blumenthal warned in a press release that prediction markets “are turning war into a casino game, and creating a market for national security leaks.”&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/videos/israel-limps-back-to-normalcy-as-children-return-to-school-with-parents-1775790866014/embed">https://www.wionews.com/videos/israel-limps-back-to-normalcy-as-children-return-to-school-with-parents-1775790866014/embed</a>&nbsp;Blumenthal, along with Senator Andy Kim, has introduced legislation to ban prediction markets tied to war or military action. “Corruption and exploitation,” Kim said, “are thriving right now within the gaps and loopholes of prediction markets.” Recent incidents have added to concerns. In January, an unknown trader made over $400,000 betting on Nicolás Maduro’s removal shortly before it happened.&nbsp;&nbsp;In February, Israeli authorities arrested several individuals, including army reservists, for allegedly using classified information to place bets on military operations. Polymarket, which has a data partnership with Dow Jones, remains at the center of growing scrutiny as lawmakers push for tighter regulation of prediction markets.&nbsp;Disclaimer: WION takes utmost care to accurately and responsibly report ongoing conflicts in West Asia involving Israel, Iran, the US, Gulf nations, and non-state actors like Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Islamic State, and others. Claims and counterclaims, disinformation and misinformation are being made online and offline. Given this context, WION cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, social media posts, photos, and videos.

1. White House warns staff on prediction markets after suspicious Iran ceasefire bets raise insider trading concerns, according to reports

The day after US President Donald Trump announced a sudden pause in strikes against Iran last month, the White House issued an internal warning to staff about misusing their positions to make well-timed bets in financial markets. According to people familiar with the matter, the White House Management Office sent a staff-wide email on March 24. The warning came just a day after Trump revealed the policy shift on Truth Social. Notably, about 15 minutes before the announcement, a surge of unusual activity was recorded in futures markets. In less than two minutes, more than $760 million worth of oil futures contracts were traded, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Separately, three accounts on Polymarket reportedly earned over $600,000 by correctly predicting the timing of this week’s Iranian ceasefire. The timing of these trades prompted critics, including several Democrats, to question whether advance knowledge of the decision had been used for profit. The White House confirmed the authenticity of the internal email. Trump spokesman Davis Ingle told The Wall Street Journal that the only special interest that will ever guide President Trump is the best interest of the American people. Also Read: Melania Trump denies Epstein links: Emails, Maxwell connection and what we know so far At present, there is no evidence of leaks or misuse of inside information by administration officials. However, the rise of crypto-based prediction markets has created new ethical concerns. These platforms allow users to place bets on geopolitical events and withdraw profits anonymously, raising fears about potential misuse of sensitive information. Existing ethics rules already prohibit federal employees from gambling on government property and from using nonpublic information for personal gain. A senior administration official described the email as a timely “refresher,” particularly as suspicious large trades in futures markets have dominated recent headlines. “President Trump has been crystal clear,” Ingle said, “while he seeks a strong and profitable stock market for everyone, members of Congress and other government officials should be prohibited from using nonpublic information for financial benefit.” He dismissed allegations of wrongdoing as “baseless and irresponsible reporting.” Despite the denial, unusual winning bets have fueled public anger, including among some of Trump’s supporters. Congressional Democrats argue that current regulations are insufficient for an evolving financial landscape where large profits can be made anonymously. Senator Richard Blumenthal warned in a press release that prediction markets “are turning war into a casino game, and creating a market for national security leaks.” https://www.wionews.com/videos/israel-limps-back-to-normalcy-as-children-return-to-school-with-parents-1775790866014/embed Blumenthal, along with Senator Andy Kim, has introduced legislation to ban prediction markets tied to war or military action. “Corruption and exploitation,” Kim said, “are thriving right now within the gaps and loopholes of prediction markets.” Recent incidents have added to concerns. In January, an unknown trader made over $400,000 betting on Nicolás Maduro’s removal shortly before it happened. In February, Israeli authorities arrested several individuals, including army reservists, for allegedly using classified information to place bets on military operations. Polymarket, which has a data partnership with Dow Jones, remains at the center of growing scrutiny as lawmakers push for tighter regulation of prediction markets. Disclaimer: WION takes utmost care to accurately and responsibly report ongoing conflicts in West Asia involving Israel, Iran, the US, Gulf nations, and non-state actors like Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Islamic State, and others. Claims and counterclaims, disinformation and misinformation are being made online and offline. Given this context, WION cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, social media posts, photos, and videos.

As per reports, the White House has warned staff after suspicious Iran ceasefire bets sparked insider trading concerns around prediction markets and national security

Iran war: White House warns staff on prediction markets after 'well-timed' bets raise questions, reports say

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What are prediction markets? How they work and why they are under scrutiny

White House warns staff on prediction markets betting amid Iran war, reports say