Amid the ongoing Northeast monsoon, two weather systems are brewing in the Bay of Bengal, off India's southeast coast. One of them is a well-marked low-pressure area adjoining the Andaman Sea, and this system is likely to move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over the South Andaman Sea by Tuesday, (25th Nov). In addition to this, a low-pressure area is likely to form between the Indian mainland's southernmost tip and Sri Lanka, around Tuesday, and intensify thereafter, warned the Indian Meteorological Department(IMD).&nbsp;In meteorology, a low-pressure area is one where the atmospheric pressure is lower than the surrounding areas. It is associated with cloud formation, increased, humidity and rainfall. It causes moderate rain, cloudy skies. If multiple factors are favourable, a low-pressure area could gradually intensify in a phased manner into a depression and later into a cyclonic storm.&nbsp;Rainfall data shared on Monday (23rd Nov), showed that two locations in Tirunelveli district in Southern Tamil Nadu recorded over 22 cms of rainfall over the last 24 hours. Over 20 cm of rainfall in 24 hours is categorised as extremely heavy rainfall. Dozens of locations along coastal Tamil Nadu recorded over 11 cm of rainfall over the same period.&nbsp;Owing to the two weather systems that are evolving in the Bay of Bengal, an alert for heavy rain has been issued for multiple districts across coastal Tamil Nadu through this week. Heavy to very heavy rainfall has been forecast for Chennai and adjoining districts on Saturday, (29th Nov), followed by heavy rain on Sunday.&nbsp;Owing to rough sea conditions and gusty winds, fishermen have been warned against venturing out to sea along the Tamil Nadu coast through this week. Wind speeds are expected to touch 65kmph along parts of the Tamil Nadu coast, warned the IMD.

In meteorology, a low-pressure area is one where the atmospheric pressure is lower than the surrounding areas. It is associated with cloud formation, increased, humidity and rainfall.

Amid the ongoing Northeast monsoon, two weather systems are brewing in the Bay of Bengal, off India's southeast coast. One of them is a well-marked low-pressure area adjoining the Andaman Sea, and this system is likely to move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over the South Andaman Sea by Tuesday, (25th Nov). In addition to this, a low-pressure area is likely to form between the Indian mainland's southernmost tip and Sri Lanka, around Tuesday, and intensify thereafter, warned the Indian Meteorological Department(IMD). In meteorology, a low-pressure area is one where the atmospheric pressure is lower than the surrounding areas. It is associated with cloud formation, increased, humidity and rainfall. It causes moderate rain, cloudy skies. If multiple factors are favourable, a low-pressure area could gradually intensify in a phased manner into a depression and later into a cyclonic storm. Rainfall data shared on Monday (23rd Nov), showed that two locations in Tirunelveli district in Southern Tamil Nadu recorded over 22 cms of rainfall over the last 24 hours. Over 20 cm of rainfall in 24 hours is categorised as extremely heavy rainfall. Dozens of locations along coastal Tamil Nadu recorded over 11 cm of rainfall over the same period. Owing to the two weather systems that are evolving in the Bay of Bengal, an alert for heavy rain has been issued for multiple districts across coastal Tamil Nadu through this week. Heavy to very heavy rainfall has been forecast for Chennai and adjoining districts on Saturday, (29th Nov), followed by heavy rain on Sunday. Owing to rough sea conditions and gusty winds, fishermen have been warned against venturing out to sea along the Tamil Nadu coast through this week. Wind speeds are expected to touch 65kmph along parts of the Tamil Nadu coast, warned the IMD.

In meteorology, a low-pressure area is one where the atmospheric pressure is lower than the surrounding areas. It is associated with cloud formation, increased humidity and rainfall.

Two weather systems brewing in Bay of Bengal; Cyclone likely, says IMD

Tuesday (Oct 15) marked the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon and simultaneously, the northeast monsoon commenced, said the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).

Tuesday (Oct 15) marked the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon and simultaneously, the northeast monsoon commenced, said the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Coinciding with the onset of the northeast monsoon, there is a weather system intensifying in the Bay of Bengal, which has been bringing intense spells of rain over the southern Indian city of Chennai and adjoining districts. The low-pressure area concentrated into a well-marked low-pressure area over the central part of the south Bay of Bengal on Tuesday. It is likely to move northwestwards and intensify into a depression during the next 24 hours, said the IMD. It is likely to continue to move towards north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh, the IMD cautioned. Owing to this evolving weather system, a red alert for heavy to extremely heavy rainfall has been issued for Chennai and its adjoining districts, for both Tuesday and Wednesday. As per the IMD's classification, heavy rainfall amounts to 6.4-11.5 cm of downpour in 24 hours, whereas very heavy rainfall amounts to 11.5 cm to 20.4 cm in 24 hours. In case of extremely heavy rainfall, it is more than 20.4 cm in 24 hours. Nearly 18 districts across Tamil Nadu would be receiving rainfall of varying intensity, as per the forecast. Throughout the week, winds would be blowing at an average of 50kmph along the Tamil Nadu coast, owing to which fishermen have been urged not to venture into the sea, and those at sea have been asked to return ashore. Watch | Cyclone 'Remal' claims at least 61 lives in India & Bangladesh × NDRF teams on alert; State government monitoring situation Around 13 teams of the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), comprising a total of 390 personnel are on standby at Arakkonam, near Chennai. NDRF teams are working in close coordination with the state authorities to render assistance at the required time and place. Each of these NDRF teams is prepared with rubber boats, tree-cutting chainsaws, communications equipment, ropes and harnesses and first aid kits. The NDRF has also set up a round-the-clock control room at 04 Battalion Arakkonam, near Chennai, to closely monitor the situation. Also read | Chennai rains: 13 NDRF teams on standby; WFH advised for this week In the review meeting chaired by the chief minister, it was ordered that those in flood-prone and vulnerable areas be moved to relief camps, bread, drinking water and other essentials be stocked at the camps, and levels of water bodies be constantly monitored. The Tamil Nadu government declared a holiday for schools and colleges in Chennai and adjoining districts for Tuesday. The state government also recommended work from home (WFH) for IT firms from October 15 to 18, considering the weather system that is brewing in the Bay of Bengal.

India: Southwest Monsoon ends, northeast monsoon begins; Chennai on red alert, IMD warns

Northeast monsoon rains have been lashing regions in southern India including parts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala. With widespread rainfall being predicted across Tamil Nadu, for the coming three days, 15 teams of India's National Disaster Response Force(NDRF) have been kept on standby in the state.&nbsp;

According to Arun, Commandant, 04 NDRF Battalion, 15 of their teams have been kept ready for Northeast monsoon deployment. Of the teams, 13 are based at the NRDF Battalion Headquarters in Arakkonam, whereas a team each is based out of Chennai city and the mountainous Nilgiris district.&nbsp;

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As the active <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NortheastMonsoon?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NortheastMonsoon</a> brings bountiful rains to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/chennai?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#chennai</a> , adj districts and other parts of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TamilNadu?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#TamilNadu</a> , <a href="https://twitter.com/04NDRF?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@04NDRF</a> 15 teams are on standby, as a measure of precaution 
 
13 at Arakkonam, 1 in chennai, 1 in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/nilgiris?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#nilgiris</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/chennairains?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#chennairains</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/chennaiweather?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#chennaiweather</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/weathernews?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#weathernews</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/NDRFHQ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NDRFHQ</a> <a href="https://t.co/NeuzqI2VoN">pic.twitter.com/NeuzqI2VoN</a>
— Sidharth.M.P (@sdhrthmp) <a href="https://twitter.com/sdhrthmp/status/1587393728695922688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 1, 2022</a></blockquote>
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He added that the NDRF is in touch with the State Emergency Operational Control Room and that the teams are ready with their equipment, for deployment at any point in time.&nbsp;

According to the Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, the city and adjoining districts have witnessed widespread rainfall over the last 24 hours and are likely to witness heavy to very heavy rainfall over the next two days. It was also added that the core Chennai city region received 8.04cms of rainfall over the last 24 hours, as of 8:30 am Tuesday. This is said to be the third time in the last 72 years that the city has received such rainfall on November 1st.

Northeast monsoon rains have been lashing regions in southern India including parts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala. With widespread rainfall being predicted across Tamil Nadu, for the coming three days, 15 teams of India's National Disaster Response Force(NDRF) have been kept on standby in the state.

Northeast monsoon rains have been lashing regions in southern India including parts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala. With widespread rainfall being predicted across Tamil Nadu, for the coming three days, 15 teams of India's National Disaster Response Force(NDRF) have been kept on standby in the state. According to Arun, Commandant, 04 NDRF Battalion, 15 of their teams have been kept ready for Northeast monsoon deployment. Of the teams, 13 are based at the NRDF Battalion Headquarters in Arakkonam, whereas a team each is based out of Chennai city and the mountainous Nilgiris district. As the active #NortheastMonsoon brings bountiful rains to #chennai , adj districts and other parts of #TamilNadu , @04NDRF 15 teams are on standby, as a measure of precaution 13 at Arakkonam, 1 in chennai, 1 in #nilgiris #chennairains #chennaiweather #weathernews @NDRFHQ pic.twitter.com/NeuzqI2VoN — Sidharth.M.P (@sdhrthmp) November 1, 2022 × He added that the NDRF is in touch with the State Emergency Operational Control Room and that the teams are ready with their equipment, for deployment at any point in time. According to the Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, the city and adjoining districts have witnessed widespread rainfall over the last 24 hours and are likely to witness heavy to very heavy rainfall over the next two days. It was also added that the core Chennai city region received 8.04cms of rainfall over the last 24 hours, as of 8:30 am Tuesday. This is said to be the third time in the last 72 years that the city has received such rainfall on November 1st.

Northeast monsoon rains in southern India: 15 NDRF teams on standby in Tamil Nadu

As the year draws toward an end, the country must prepare for a drought year, as both our monsoons — southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon — have played ‘truant’. In four days from now, the northeast monsoon period over peninsular India will come to an end. And there are strong indications that a deficient northeast monsoon may accentuate the prevailing drought conditions in the country. Yesterday, Skymet Weather, a private weather forecasting agency, issued an update informing that the northeast monsoon will end on a ‘deficit note’, which will impact rabi (winter) crops. News reports are already pointing out a decline in sowing of rabi crops, such as black gram, millets, groundnut, etc.

Unlike the southwest monsoon (June to September), which brings rainfall across the country, northeast monsoon (October to December) mainly covers five meteorological subdivisions of peninsular India — Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, Kerala, South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. And, a look at the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) post-monsoon season (October to December) rainfall data shows the rainfall gap in these regions.

Between October 1 and December 26 this year, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry have a rainfall deficit of minus 22 per cent. Rayalaseema is in ‘large deficient’ rainfall category with minus 62 per cent rainfall departure. South Interior Karnataka and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, too, have rainfall departure of minus 41 per cent and minus 54 per cent, respectively.

While the northeast monsoon is set to end on a ‘deficient’ note, the southwest monsoon, our main monsoon season, too, ended with a rainfall departure of minus 9 per cent (at all India level) making it a ‘below normal’ monsoon year. Since large parts of our country depend on rainfall for irrigation and agriculture, several states across the country have already declared drought. For instance, 22 out of 30 districts in Karnataka and 26 out of 36 districts in Maharashtra are facing crop failure and drought. Bihar government and Jharkhand government have declared 23 districts and 18 districts as drought-hit, respectively. Rayalaseema, which has minus 62 per cent rainfall departure in northeast monsoon period, had minus 37 per cent rainfall departure in southwest monsoon season, too. Early this month, 291 of the total 676 mandals in Andhra Pradesh were declared drought-affected and 88 per cent groundnut crop in the state is said to be under critical moisture stress.

The importance of northeast monsoon for south peninsula can be gauged from the fact that whereas the country receives about 11 per cent of its annual rainfall during this period, many districts over the south peninsula receive 30-60 per cent of their annual rainfall in the northeast monsoon period. For instance, Tamil Nadu receives 48 per cent of its annual rainfall during northeast monsoon season. And as per news reports, at present Chennai has a rainfall deficit of minus 55 per cent. Recent satellite images [Copernicus Sentinel Data] analysed by Raj B Palanichamy, earth observation and GIS expert, indicate dry tanks in northern Tamil Nadu and dry lakes around Chennai.

Unlike the southwest monsoon, predicting northeast monsoon rainfall is much more difficult because its variability is close to 25 per cent as against 10 per cent of the former, explains M Rajeevan, secretary, Union ministry of earth sciences. According to him, the IMD attempts to forecast seasonal rainfall of northeast monsoon using a statistical model, which needs to improve further and remains a “grey area”.

A 2012 research paper, co-authored by Rajeevan and published in Meteorological Applications notes that while different aspects of the southwest monsoon have been well investigated, the northeast monsoon has received less attention.

The large variability of northeast monsoon is reflected in rainfall data of 2015 and 2016 in Tamil Nadu. As per the ‘Report on the Northeast Monsoon 2017’, “whereas the NEM [northeast monsoon] 2015 was +52 per cent excess over the TN [Tamil Nadu] sub-division with some extremely heavy rainfall activity and unprecedented floods over the north coastal districts of Chennai, Kanchipuram and Thiruvallur, the NEM 2016 was largely deficient at -62 per cent and was the worst deficient scenario in the last 140 years.” The excess northeast monsoon 2015 occurred under strong El Niño and positive-normal Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions which are generally associated with good northeast monsoon performance.

Climate scientists are already warning against impacts of changing the climate on the northeast monsoon. A recent study by Chennai-based Anna University’s A Ramachandran and team has reported: “There are also indications of increasing heavy rainfall events during the northeast monsoon season and a slight decrease during the southwest monsoon season [in Tamil Nadu].” Clearly, there is a need to closely study our ‘fringe’ northeast monsoon. 
 
(This article was originally published on DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-there-is-a-need-to-closely-study-fringe-northeast-monsoon-2700778">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

As the year draws toward an end, the country must prepare for a drought year, as both our monsoons — southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon — have played ‘truant’.

As the year draws toward an end, the country must prepare for a drought year, as both our monsoons — southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon — have played ‘truant’. In four days from now, the northeast monsoon period over peninsular India will come to an end. And there are strong indications that a deficient northeast monsoon may accentuate the prevailing drought conditions in the country. Yesterday, Skymet Weather, a private weather forecasting agency, issued an update informing that the northeast monsoon will end on a ‘deficit note’, which will impact rabi (winter) crops. News reports are already pointing out a decline in sowing of rabi crops, such as black gram, millets, groundnut, etc. Unlike the southwest monsoon (June to September), which brings rainfall across the country, northeast monsoon (October to December) mainly covers five meteorological subdivisions of peninsular India — Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, Kerala, South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. And, a look at the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) post-monsoon season (October to December) rainfall data shows the rainfall gap in these regions. Between October 1 and December 26 this year, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry have a rainfall deficit of minus 22 per cent. Rayalaseema is in ‘large deficient’ rainfall category with minus 62 per cent rainfall departure. South Interior Karnataka and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, too, have rainfall departure of minus 41 per cent and minus 54 per cent, respectively. While the northeast monsoon is set to end on a ‘deficient’ note, the southwest monsoon, our main monsoon season, too, ended with a rainfall departure of minus 9 per cent (at all India level) making it a ‘below normal’ monsoon year. Since large parts of our country depend on rainfall for irrigation and agriculture, several states across the country have already declared drought. For instance, 22 out of 30 districts in Karnataka and 26 out of 36 districts in Maharashtra are facing crop failure and drought. Bihar government and Jharkhand government have declared 23 districts and 18 districts as drought-hit, respectively. Rayalaseema, which has minus 62 per cent rainfall departure in northeast monsoon period, had minus 37 per cent rainfall departure in southwest monsoon season, too. Early this month, 291 of the total 676 mandals in Andhra Pradesh were declared drought-affected and 88 per cent groundnut crop in the state is said to be under critical moisture stress. The importance of northeast monsoon for south peninsula can be gauged from the fact that whereas the country receives about 11 per cent of its annual rainfall during this period, many districts over the south peninsula receive 30-60 per cent of their annual rainfall in the northeast monsoon period. For instance, Tamil Nadu receives 48 per cent of its annual rainfall during northeast monsoon season. And as per news reports, at present Chennai has a rainfall deficit of minus 55 per cent. Recent satellite images [Copernicus Sentinel Data] analysed by Raj B Palanichamy, earth observation and GIS expert, indicate dry tanks in northern Tamil Nadu and dry lakes around Chennai. Unlike the southwest monsoon, predicting northeast monsoon rainfall is much more difficult because its variability is close to 25 per cent as against 10 per cent of the former, explains M Rajeevan, secretary, Union ministry of earth sciences. According to him, the IMD attempts to forecast seasonal rainfall of northeast monsoon using a statistical model, which needs to improve further and remains a “grey area”. A 2012 research paper, co-authored by Rajeevan and published in Meteorological Applications notes that while different aspects of the southwest monsoon have been well investigated, the northeast monsoon has received less attention. The large variability of northeast monsoon is reflected in rainfall data of 2015 and 2016 in Tamil Nadu. As per the ‘Report on the Northeast Monsoon 2017’, “whereas the NEM [northeast monsoon] 2015 was +52 per cent excess over the TN [Tamil Nadu] sub-division with some extremely heavy rainfall activity and unprecedented floods over the north coastal districts of Chennai, Kanchipuram and Thiruvallur, the NEM 2016 was largely deficient at -62 per cent and was the worst deficient scenario in the last 140 years.” The excess northeast monsoon 2015 occurred under strong El Niño and positive-normal Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions which are generally associated with good northeast monsoon performance. Climate scientists are already warning against impacts of changing the climate on the northeast monsoon. A recent study by Chennai-based Anna University’s A Ramachandran and team has reported: “There are also indications of increasing heavy rainfall events during the northeast monsoon season and a slight decrease during the southwest monsoon season [in Tamil Nadu].” Clearly, there is a need to closely study our ‘fringe’ northeast monsoon. (This article was originally published on DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The country must prepare for a drought year

The northeast monsoon, which set in over Tamil Nadu, brought in the first spell of rains in Chennai today.&nbsp;

Schools in the city closed an hour earlier than usual following government&#39;s order.

Traffic jams were reported on some major roads in the city including Velachery and OMR the IT Corridor. In the northern parts, several areas including Kilpauk and Koyambedu were affected.

A&nbsp;tree that fell in the Mambalam area blocked traffic close to the commercial hub of T Nagar. &nbsp;

Coastal districts including Chennai, Cuddalore, Thiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Villupuram, Nagapattinam, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur and Ramanathapuram received heavy rainfalls while a few interior districts received heavy to very heavy rains.&nbsp;

The northeast monsoon arrived over Tamil Nadu on October 27. Weather blogger Pradeep John has forecast above normal rainfall this northeast monsoon due to a favourable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Rainfall in the state would last until December first week, he said.

Schools in the city closed an hour earlier than usual following the government order.

The northeast monsoon, which set in over Tamil Nadu, brought in the first spell of rains in Chennai today. Schools in the city closed an hour earlier than usual following government's order. Traffic jams were reported on some major roads in the city including Velachery and OMR the IT Corridor. In the northern parts, several areas including Kilpauk and Koyambedu were affected. A tree that fell in the Mambalam area blocked traffic close to the commercial hub of T Nagar. Coastal districts including Chennai, Cuddalore, Thiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Villupuram, Nagapattinam, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur and Ramanathapuram received heavy rainfalls while a few interior districts received heavy to very heavy rains. The northeast monsoon arrived over Tamil Nadu on October 27. Weather blogger Pradeep John has forecast above normal rainfall this northeast monsoon due to a favourable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Rainfall in the state would last until December first week, he said.

Northeast monsoon brings widespread rainfall in Chennai

northeast-monsoon

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