The villagers of Hassanabad live in constant fear.

Above them, the vast Shisper glacier dominates the landscape, a&nbsp;river of jagged black ice moving towards them at as much as four meters per day.

Climate change is causing most glaciers worldwide to shrink, but due to a meteorological anomaly, this is one of a few in the Karakoram mountain range in northern <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/there-are-no-takers-for-your-malware-india-blasts-pakistan-at-un-debate-273339">Pakistan</a> that is surging.

This means hundreds of tonnes of ice and debris are pushing down the valley at ten times the normal rate or more, threatening the safety of the people and homes below.

"People's lives, properties, and animals are in danger," warns villager Basir Ali.

Flash floods caused by glacial lakes, ice, and rockfall and a lack of clean and accessible water are all serious risks for those close to its path.

"When a glacial lake bursts there is an enormous amount of not only ice, water and debris that falls through, but also mud and this has devastating effects, it basically destroys everything that comes in its way," said Ignacio Artaza of UNDP Pakistan.

But repercussions of the Shisper glacier surge extend far beyond its path: The mighty Indus River is reliant on seasonal melt for more than half of its flow and changes in Pakistan's ice fields affect this.

That has implications not just for those living in its basin, but for the whole nation, which relies on it for much of its food.

Shifting water levels also have implications for the fragile relationship between nuclear-armed neighbors Pakistan and India.

Already ranked among the planet's most water-stressed nations according to the World Resources Institute, both need the Indus and its tributaries.

Their access to the water is governed by the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, which aims for fair usage.

But there have long been fearing India, which sits upstream, could weaponize the resource, it has threatened more than once to restrict Pakistan's access&nbsp;including just last year.

The Karakoram, which contains some of the world's tallest mountains including K2, is just one of the mountain ranges that criss-cross the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region.

Sometimes called The Third Pole, the region holds more ice than anywhere other than the Arctic or <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/antarctica-bound-plane-disappears-with-38-aboard-chilean-air-force-267324">Antarctica</a>.

But a third of the glaciers here are expected to melt by 2100, endangering the lives of hundreds of millions, according to this year's Hindu Kush-Himalaya Assessment Report.

Rising in Tibet, the Indus crosses through India and Pakistan fed by a multitude of tributaries before it reaches the Arabian Sea.

The waterway's basin produces 90 percent of Pakistan's food, according to the UN, and agriculture is dependent on irrigation from the river, which heavily relies on meltwater from the ice sheets.

With its surging population experts warn the nation faces "absolute water scarcity" by 2025, with the loss of the Himalayan glaciers a key threat.

While scientists cite climate change and topography, it's not clear exactly what causes the Karakoram anomaly where glaciers are surging and in some cases growing.

But many say these changes will also impact the Indus because they alter meltwater patterns, causing flash flooding or water shortages that are difficult to predict and manage.

"The Shisper glacier is increasing its length and width, furthermore it is also moving downhill," explained Shehzad Baig of the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority.

He warned climate change meant there was heavier snowfall during the winters and warmer temperatures in the summers, leading to the ice mass producing more meltwater, swelling the Hunza River, a churning mountain tributary of the Indus.

"This may cause harm to the local community and deprive the people of the Indus basin blocking or disturbing drinking water and irrigation channels," Baig warned, adding that changing weather patterns were also creating more glacial lakes.

The <a href="https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/reconstruction-drive-in-rural-nepal-provides-opportunity-for-women-to-come-forward-268758">UNDP</a> estimates that more than 3,000 glacial lakes have been formed in the region, with 33 posing an imminent threat of 'outburst floods', known as GLOFs, that could impact as many as seven million people.

Last year the surging Shisper glacier effectively dammed a meltwater stream from a neighboring glacier creating a large lake. Authorities were forced to issue safety warnings to Hassanabad and local villages before the water was drained.

But satellite data shows the lake is already reforming, leaving residents fearing not only the progression of the crushing ice sheet but that they will be swept to their deaths in flash floods.

"This whole area will be devastated, the whole population and people's properties will go into river," cautions&nbsp;villager Didar Karim.

Professor Andreas Kääb from the University of Oslo says Pakistan must adapt its "monitoring and response strategies, and risk management in general" to contend with both surging and shrinking glaciers.&nbsp;

Authorities, working with the UN, are setting up early warning systems using sensors positioned on top of the Shisper glacier and downstream to alert communities.&nbsp;

But the challenge for Pakistan extends beyond crisis management to the long-term water conservation and storage, experts say.

"Pakistan has to increase its water storage capacity which is now 33 days,&nbsp;it should be at least 100 days to ensure sustainable development," cautions Dr. Ghulam Rasul of the&nbsp;International Center for Integrated Mountain Development.

He estimates that 60 percent of water is currently lost as run-off to the sea.

With few functioning resevoirs the nation is ill-equipped to harness the short-term excess water as climate change causes more glaciers to melt, or from the increasingly erratic monsoon deluges.&nbsp;

And by 2050, with so much of the ice sheets lost scientists say the flow of the Indus will dramatically decrease, leaving Pakistanis more vulnerable than ever.&nbsp;

Rasul says: "Water is the capital of agrarian economies and guarantees food and energy security. Shortage of water against increasing demand could lead to conflict."&nbsp;

The villagers of Hassanabad live in constant fear. Above them, the vast Shisper glacier dominates the landscape, a river of jagged black ice moving towards them at as much as four meters per day.

The villagers of Hassanabad live in constant fear. Above them, the vast Shisper glacier dominates the landscape, a river of jagged black ice moving towards them at as much as four meters per day. Climate change is causing most glaciers worldwide to shrink, but due to a meteorological anomaly, this is one of a few in the Karakoram mountain range in northern Pakistan that is surging. This means hundreds of tonnes of ice and debris are pushing down the valley at ten times the normal rate or more, threatening the safety of the people and homes below. "People's lives, properties, and animals are in danger," warns villager Basir Ali. Flash floods caused by glacial lakes, ice, and rockfall and a lack of clean and accessible water are all serious risks for those close to its path. "When a glacial lake bursts there is an enormous amount of not only ice, water and debris that falls through, but also mud and this has devastating effects, it basically destroys everything that comes in its way," said Ignacio Artaza of UNDP Pakistan. But repercussions of the Shisper glacier surge extend far beyond its path: The mighty Indus River is reliant on seasonal melt for more than half of its flow and changes in Pakistan's ice fields affect this. That has implications not just for those living in its basin, but for the whole nation, which relies on it for much of its food. Shifting water levels also have implications for the fragile relationship between nuclear-armed neighbors Pakistan and India. Already ranked among the planet's most water-stressed nations according to the World Resources Institute, both need the Indus and its tributaries. Their access to the water is governed by the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, which aims for fair usage. But there have long been fearing India, which sits upstream, could weaponize the resource, it has threatened more than once to restrict Pakistan's access including just last year. The Karakoram, which contains some of the world's tallest mountains including K2, is just one of the mountain ranges that criss-cross the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region. Sometimes called The Third Pole, the region holds more ice than anywhere other than the Arctic or Antarctica. But a third of the glaciers here are expected to melt by 2100, endangering the lives of hundreds of millions, according to this year's Hindu Kush-Himalaya Assessment Report. Rising in Tibet, the Indus crosses through India and Pakistan fed by a multitude of tributaries before it reaches the Arabian Sea. The waterway's basin produces 90 percent of Pakistan's food, according to the UN, and agriculture is dependent on irrigation from the river, which heavily relies on meltwater from the ice sheets. With its surging population experts warn the nation faces "absolute water scarcity" by 2025, with the loss of the Himalayan glaciers a key threat. While scientists cite climate change and topography, it's not clear exactly what causes the Karakoram anomaly where glaciers are surging and in some cases growing. But many say these changes will also impact the Indus because they alter meltwater patterns, causing flash flooding or water shortages that are difficult to predict and manage. "The Shisper glacier is increasing its length and width, furthermore it is also moving downhill," explained Shehzad Baig of the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority. He warned climate change meant there was heavier snowfall during the winters and warmer temperatures in the summers, leading to the ice mass producing more meltwater, swelling the Hunza River, a churning mountain tributary of the Indus. "This may cause harm to the local community and deprive the people of the Indus basin blocking or disturbing drinking water and irrigation channels," Baig warned, adding that changing weather patterns were also creating more glacial lakes. The UNDP estimates that more than 3,000 glacial lakes have been formed in the region, with 33 posing an imminent threat of 'outburst floods', known as GLOFs, that could impact as many as seven million people. Last year the surging Shisper glacier effectively dammed a meltwater stream from a neighboring glacier creating a large lake. Authorities were forced to issue safety warnings to Hassanabad and local villages before the water was drained. But satellite data shows the lake is already reforming, leaving residents fearing not only the progression of the crushing ice sheet but that they will be swept to their deaths in flash floods. "This whole area will be devastated, the whole population and people's properties will go into river," cautions villager Didar Karim. Professor Andreas Kääb from the University of Oslo says Pakistan must adapt its "monitoring and response strategies, and risk management in general" to contend with both surging and shrinking glaciers. Authorities, working with the UN, are setting up early warning systems using sensors positioned on top of the Shisper glacier and downstream to alert communities. But the challenge for Pakistan extends beyond crisis management to the long-term water conservation and storage, experts say. "Pakistan has to increase its water storage capacity which is now 33 days, it should be at least 100 days to ensure sustainable development," cautions Dr. Ghulam Rasul of the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development. He estimates that 60 percent of water is currently lost as run-off to the sea. With few functioning resevoirs the nation is ill-equipped to harness the short-term excess water as climate change causes more glaciers to melt, or from the increasingly erratic monsoon deluges. And by 2050, with so much of the ice sheets lost scientists say the flow of the Indus will dramatically decrease, leaving Pakistanis more vulnerable than ever. Rasul says: "Water is the capital of agrarian economies and guarantees food and energy security. Shortage of water against increasing demand could lead to conflict."

Glacier melt at Karakoram mountain range threatens Pakistan's future

The Indian government, in the aftermath of Pulwama, announced its intention to maximise the use of water flowing to Pakistan via the Indus system. As a multipronged strategy, India shifted its focus on the Indus Water Treaty (IWT).&nbsp;

The geographical setting of the Indus river system has facilitated partitioning of the six rivers in equal numbers between the two riparian countries under the 1960 IWT, which was achieved after nine years of intense negotiation under the aegis of the World Bank. &nbsp;

Pakistan, being one the world’s most arid countries, with an average rainfall of less than 240 mm, is quite dependent on Indus waters. Under the Treaty, India was given control over the water flowing in the three 'eastern' rivers of the Indus River System (Beas, Ravi and Sutlej) with the mean flow of 33 million acre-feet (MAF), which is 20 per cent of the annual flow of all Indus Rivers (168 MAF). In contrast, Pakistan was given control over the water flowing from the 2 'western’ rivers (Chenab and Jhelum) with a mean flow of 80 MAF that corresponds to 80 per cent of the annual flow.&nbsp;

Although India has retained the right to use the 'western' rivers on the non-consumptive basis (power generation/industrial consumption/navigation) so as not to affect the volume of water flowing into these rivers, it has done little in effectively addressing the severe water crisis afflicting the Indian portion of the Indus Basin.&nbsp;

Political ecologists and critics of the scarcity discourse have established that social power dynamics shape water issues in the Indus basin, especially when both countries deal with acute drought. &nbsp;&nbsp;

In 2003, the Jammu &amp; Kashmir state assembly passed an unanimous resolution for the abrogation of the Treaty, which further re-asserted the need for its revision in 2016. &nbsp;

On the face of it, this Treaty is heavily skewed in favour of Pakistan, which enjoys a lion’s share of the water and its utilisation. The treaty has not considered Gujarat – the lowermost riparian area - as part of the Indus river basin, as the Great Rann of Kutch area was disputed territory between the two nations. This was settled in 1968 by sharing the total disputed area in a 9:1 ratio between India and Pakistan.&nbsp;

Since the ratification of the treaty, over the past over 58 years, India and Pakistan have not engaged in any water wars. This is partly due to the fact that India has failed to utilise its share of the waters, allowing unused waters to flow into Pakistan.&nbsp;

Effective and complete utilisation of Indus waters falling in India’s share is the first step towards harvesting the Treaty and this has not been objected to by Pakistan, as evidenced from the February 21, 2019, statement of its Ministry of Water Resources. It is imperative that India should consider active utilisation of the 'western' rivers, albeit for non-consumptive basis.&nbsp;

The formal inauguration of the Kishanganga Hydropower project in J&amp;K in May 2018 is a salutary step in this direction, even though it just marks a beginning.&nbsp;

India has an abundance of small dams and barrages in the Indus basin. Pakistan’s objection to such projects was overruled by the Court of Arbitration under the Treaty, which paves the way for India to install and run several projects on the `western’ rivers, hitherto flowing un-channelled into Pakistan.&nbsp;

These projects will serve as an effective tool in India’s hand to remind Pakistan that India will not hesitate to harness the waters flowing into Pakistan beyond the contours of the Treaty, in the event of a war or war-like situation between the two nations.&nbsp;

Every single dimension of human activity in this basin, whether economic, social, or political, is burdened with a huge handicap arising from the basin’s sovereignty-based, resource-dividing and relentless unilateralism.

India must consider setting up of a dedicated specialised body dealing exclusively with effective utilisation of the rivers under the Treaty. This body may be tasked with the study of the Indus river basins in India, determination of the needs of each state wherein the river basins exist, formulating state-wise projects on the rivers and their basins and time-bound implementation of these projects.&nbsp;

Besides ensuring the development of effective canal systems to ease the perennial water shortages for home consumption and agriculture, the body could also explore the feasibility of channeling excess water from these rivers to other river basins.&nbsp;

This will usher a new phase of infrastructure development and economic growth in this perennially neglected basin.&nbsp;

The two co-riparian neighbours are often at loggerheads over water resources. It is frequently asked whether India or Pakistan can unilaterally abrogate the treaty? The answer is No.&nbsp;

Article 12 of the treaty states that “the provisions of this Treaty, or, the provisions of this Treaty as modified under the provisions of Paragraph (3), shall continue in force until terminated by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two governments.”

The IWT is about sharing of water of six rivers — Indus, Chenab, Jhelum, Beas, Ravi and Sutlej — between India and Pakistan. The importance of the Indus basin to the co-riparian states extends far beyond the immediately tangible material benefits in terms of its waters and any failure to cooperate risks the future of this basin and the future water security of generations to come. &nbsp;

(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-the-classic-no-win-situation-2728748">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

The Indian government, in the aftermath of Pulwama, announced its intention to maximise the use of water flowing to Pakistan via the Indus system. As a multipronged strategy, India shifted its focus on the Indus Water Treaty (IWT).

The Indian government, in the aftermath of Pulwama, announced its intention to maximise the use of water flowing to Pakistan via the Indus system. As a multipronged strategy, India shifted its focus on the Indus Water Treaty (IWT). The geographical setting of the Indus river system has facilitated partitioning of the six rivers in equal numbers between the two riparian countries under the 1960 IWT, which was achieved after nine years of intense negotiation under the aegis of the World Bank. Pakistan, being one the world’s most arid countries, with an average rainfall of less than 240 mm, is quite dependent on Indus waters. Under the Treaty, India was given control over the water flowing in the three 'eastern' rivers of the Indus River System (Beas, Ravi and Sutlej) with the mean flow of 33 million acre-feet (MAF), which is 20 per cent of the annual flow of all Indus Rivers (168 MAF). In contrast, Pakistan was given control over the water flowing from the 2 'western’ rivers (Chenab and Jhelum) with a mean flow of 80 MAF that corresponds to 80 per cent of the annual flow. Although India has retained the right to use the 'western' rivers on the non-consumptive basis (power generation/industrial consumption/navigation) so as not to affect the volume of water flowing into these rivers, it has done little in effectively addressing the severe water crisis afflicting the Indian portion of the Indus Basin. Political ecologists and critics of the scarcity discourse have established that social power dynamics shape water issues in the Indus basin, especially when both countries deal with acute drought. In 2003, the Jammu & Kashmir state assembly passed an unanimous resolution for the abrogation of the Treaty, which further re-asserted the need for its revision in 2016. On the face of it, this Treaty is heavily skewed in favour of Pakistan, which enjoys a lion’s share of the water and its utilisation. The treaty has not considered Gujarat – the lowermost riparian area - as part of the Indus river basin, as the Great Rann of Kutch area was disputed territory between the two nations. This was settled in 1968 by sharing the total disputed area in a 9:1 ratio between India and Pakistan. Since the ratification of the treaty, over the past over 58 years, India and Pakistan have not engaged in any water wars. This is partly due to the fact that India has failed to utilise its share of the waters, allowing unused waters to flow into Pakistan. Effective and complete utilisation of Indus waters falling in India’s share is the first step towards harvesting the Treaty and this has not been objected to by Pakistan, as evidenced from the February 21, 2019, statement of its Ministry of Water Resources. It is imperative that India should consider active utilisation of the 'western' rivers, albeit for non-consumptive basis. The formal inauguration of the Kishanganga Hydropower project in J&K in May 2018 is a salutary step in this direction, even though it just marks a beginning. India has an abundance of small dams and barrages in the Indus basin. Pakistan’s objection to such projects was overruled by the Court of Arbitration under the Treaty, which paves the way for India to install and run several projects on the `western’ rivers, hitherto flowing un-channelled into Pakistan. These projects will serve as an effective tool in India’s hand to remind Pakistan that India will not hesitate to harness the waters flowing into Pakistan beyond the contours of the Treaty, in the event of a war or war-like situation between the two nations. Every single dimension of human activity in this basin, whether economic, social, or political, is burdened with a huge handicap arising from the basin’s sovereignty-based, resource-dividing and relentless unilateralism. India must consider setting up of a dedicated specialised body dealing exclusively with effective utilisation of the rivers under the Treaty. This body may be tasked with the study of the Indus river basins in India, determination of the needs of each state wherein the river basins exist, formulating state-wise projects on the rivers and their basins and time-bound implementation of these projects. Besides ensuring the development of effective canal systems to ease the perennial water shortages for home consumption and agriculture, the body could also explore the feasibility of channeling excess water from these rivers to other river basins. This will usher a new phase of infrastructure development and economic growth in this perennially neglected basin. The two co-riparian neighbours are often at loggerheads over water resources. It is frequently asked whether India or Pakistan can unilaterally abrogate the treaty? The answer is No. Article 12 of the treaty states that “the provisions of this Treaty, or, the provisions of this Treaty as modified under the provisions of Paragraph (3), shall continue in force until terminated by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two governments.” The IWT is about sharing of water of six rivers — Indus, Chenab, Jhelum, Beas, Ravi and Sutlej — between India and Pakistan. The importance of the Indus basin to the co-riparian states extends far beyond the immediately tangible material benefits in terms of its waters and any failure to cooperate risks the future of this basin and the future water security of generations to come. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

India must ensure effective and complete utilisation of Indus waters

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Glacier melt at Karakoram mountain range threatens Pakistan's future

India must ensure effective and complete utilisation of Indus waters