India has experienced several political upheavals throughout its 77-year history, whether in the 1960s when the Jan Sangh and other parties joined forces to combat Congress, or after the state of emergency of 1976 when the opposition joined hands against the Indira Gandhi government, the unstable governments of the 1990s, the turmoil of the first BJP government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, or the most recent Maharashtra government developments.

In all these, one thing that stayed common is the rise of a strong opposition.

Now, the nation's largest opposition parties have banded together to oppose the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/pm-modi-exudes-confidence-during-no-confidence-motion-debate-slams-india-alliance-624273">India: No-confidence motion defeated; PM Modi exudes 'confidence' of 2024 win, slams I.N.D.I.A. alliance</a>

On July 18, under the direction of Mallikarjun Kharge of the Congress party, the 26 opposition parties named themselves INDIA, or the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance,&nbsp;renaming its earlier name UPA or United Progressive Alliance.

It remains to be seen whether this parliamentary coalition would defeat the BJP, the country's current ruling party, in the 2024 general elections, but they want the polls to happen earlier.&nbsp;

With that hope, they have moved a no-confidence motion against the government.

<h2>What is the recent INDIA vs NDA battle?</h2>

The 26-party alliance declared in Bengaluru on July 18 with much fanfare that they had united under the banner of "INDIA '' to challenge the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Meanwhile the ruling NDA held a conference of 38 parties&nbsp; just when INDIA was formed. Prime Minister Modi criticised the INDIA alliance as "unholy" and "opportunistic" with the sole aim of deposing him.

Social media users who leaned to the right framed the #INDIAvsNDA conflict as "Bharat versus India". The argument is that there is "much ado about nothing": parties and leaders, not alliance names, win elections.

By giving voters a choice between the Narendra Modi-led NDA and other political parties, the coalition seeks to dismiss the claim that there is no option other than Modi. But will that translate into votes?

<h2>Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA)</h2>

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Indian National Congress (INC) are two of the 26 opposition parties that make up the INDIA alliance. The new name was proposed by Mamata Banerjee, TMC chief and the chief minister of West Bengal at the opposition meet in Bengaluru.

Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/rahul-gandhis-ex-colleague-defends-his-flying-kiss-act-calling-it-an-affectionate-gesture-624093">Rahul Gandhi's ex-colleague defends his ‘flying kiss’ act, calls it an ‘affectionate gesture’</a>

To challenge the BJP in future elections, the coalition aims to develop a strategy and a shared agenda.

<h2>National Democratic Alliance (NDA)</h2>

The NDA, a seasoned coalition dedicated to pursuing both national and regional goals, is led by BJP and Prime Minister Modi.

NDA has 38 members as of now, and many of them are tiny regional parties. There are key partners like the AIADMK, Lok Janshakti Party, and Shiv Sena.

Modi routinely highlights and lauds the NDA's accomplishments and emphasis on the growth of the country. His administration charges the opposition with encouraging nepotism, strife, and corruption.

According to Modi, A stands for the aspirations of people and regions, signifying contribution rather than coercion. N stands for New India, D for Developed Nation.

<h2>UPA to INDIA transition</h2>

The transition from UPA to INDIA shows the opposition's determination to put together a single front to take on the NDA in the next elections.

Watch |&nbsp;PM Modi LIVE: When Congress brings no-confidence motion again in 2028, India will be 3rd largest economy

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There are indications that Sonia Gandhi, the former president of Congress, would be selected to serve as the alliance's leader.

<h2>What are the voting shares and seat allocations?</h2>

In the event of INDIA going together as an alliance in the 2024 election, the most crucial issue would be the division of seats among its members, as the main national party Congress has been at loggerheads in the past with the regional parties now in INDIA.

The hardest states to predict are Kerala, where the CPM and Congress have a bitter history of conflict; Punjab, where the AAP and Congress are the two strongest and opposing parties; Uttar Pradesh, where the Samajwadi Party may demand a fair share from Congress; and West Bengal, a state where Mamata Banerjee's TMC and Congress are vying for influence. &nbsp;

If partners in the alliance adopt the strategy of preserving the seat to the party that won seats in 2019,&nbsp; and giving the rest to the party which came second in 2019, seat allocation shouldn't be a significant problem. The formula is also based on the notion of natural justice.

<h2>The numbers game:&nbsp;144 + 284 + 57&nbsp;+ 58 = 543</h2>

 
The total number of Lok Sabha seats up for election is 543.

If one were to add up the seats of all UPA members and the parties that have joined INDIA now, their total seat strength in the current Lok Sabha would be 89% of the available seats, or 485 seats.

That number is reached by adding up 144 + 284 + 57.

Let's break it down for you.

In 2019 election,&nbsp;144&nbsp;seats were won by 17 of the 26 parties of UPA , representing 27% of the Lok Sabha. Congress leads this pack with 52 seats, followed by DMK with 23, TMC with 22, and JD(U) with 16 seats.

If one were to consider all the other newly added INDIA-related parties, their total seat number adds up to&nbsp;284.

Then there are&nbsp;57&nbsp;constituencies where Congress has a natural interest to contest on its own, against regional parties that are currently in or are likely to join INDIA alliance. These include 25 Andhra Pradesh seats, six seats in Telengana and 19 seats in Odisha.

Once these 57 seats have been taken into account, and assuming they win all of them, INDIA's Lok Sabha's strength will increase by 10%.

So that's 144 + 284 + 57 = 485

There are still 58 &nbsp;seats left to be allotted, out of the total Lok Sabha strength of 543 as mentioned earlier.

Out of these, 12 of them are in Bihar, where allies like HAM, RLSP, and VIP have switched sides and joined the UPA or have ceased to exist.

The other 37 are in Uttar Pradesh.

INDIA alliance will likely support RJD in Bihar and BSP in Uttar Pradesh.

Sajjan Kumar, a political analyst, and researcher, told WION, “We saw a sort of 'mahagathbandhan' in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, yet the BJP secured greater victory. So, does coming together of different parties, bring together different voters of the society? The answer is more complicated. The entire compliance will be more than what happened in 2019. Anti-incumbency is going to be there which may lead the BJP to lose seats."

"From Mamta Banerjee to Sharad Pawar, to Nitish Kumar in Bihar, in what way they will help? These things don't add up but at the level of opposition, this is a great deal of motivation," he said.

"Opposition is also going to make a very aggressive narrative; therefore, a loss is expected in Bihar, in Bengal, and this will give a reason to encircle the BJP, &nbsp;in a tangible sense," he added.

"The opposition is going to improve its tally, and Congress may make any addition to its tally. That will be a sort of victory compared to the 2014 and 2019 elections.”

One of the questions that remain is, what if the INDIA alliance’s entire vote count is summed up? Will it be able to turn over the NDA?

As per the expert, “NDA during Atal Bihari Vajpayee, everyone had the same dilemma, of different ideologies, but the formula has been to abandon your core demand and to come up with a common mindset."

"For example, Article 370, Ram Temple, Uniform Civil Code were all rejected during the Atal govt, but that happened when the BJP came on its own.&nbsp;

"I feel that if INDIA has the numbers in its favour, then it would be easier to work out, and common things will be adopted. Any opposition, any alliance, the core anchor gets several seats way more than any other constituent parts.&nbsp;

"Congress has to be able to get the number to govern. It needs to have 80-100 seats, to claim to dictate the terms, then it will be acceptable to all will be more effective because numerically the Congress will have a psychological impact while regional parties will be at the max 30-40 seats.”

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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India has experienced several political upheavals throughout its 77-year history, whether in the 1960s when the Jan Sangh and other parties joined forces to combat Congress, or after the state of emergency of 1976 when the opposition joined hands against the Indira Gandhi government, the unstable governments of the 1990s, the turmoil of the first BJP government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, or the most recent Maharashtra government developments.

India has experienced several political upheavals throughout its 77-year history, whether in the 1960s when the Jan Sangh and other parties joined forces to combat Congress, or after the state of emergency of 1976 when the opposition joined hands against the Indira Gandhi government, the unstable governments of the 1990s, the turmoil of the first BJP government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, or the most recent Maharashtra government developments. In all these, one thing that stayed common is the rise of a strong opposition. Now, the nation's largest opposition parties have banded together to oppose the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Also read | India: No-confidence motion defeated; PM Modi exudes 'confidence' of 2024 win, slams I.N.D.I.A. alliance On July 18, under the direction of Mallikarjun Kharge of the Congress party, the 26 opposition parties named themselves INDIA, or the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, renaming its earlier name UPA or United Progressive Alliance. It remains to be seen whether this parliamentary coalition would defeat the BJP, the country's current ruling party, in the 2024 general elections, but they want the polls to happen earlier. With that hope, they have moved a no-confidence motion against the government. What is the recent INDIA vs NDA battle? The 26-party alliance declared in Bengaluru on July 18 with much fanfare that they had united under the banner of "INDIA '' to challenge the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Meanwhile the ruling NDA held a conference of 38 parties just when INDIA was formed. Prime Minister Modi criticised the INDIA alliance as "unholy" and "opportunistic" with the sole aim of deposing him. Social media users who leaned to the right framed the #INDIAvsNDA conflict as "Bharat versus India". The argument is that there is "much ado about nothing": parties and leaders, not alliance names, win elections. By giving voters a choice between the Narendra Modi-led NDA and other political parties, the coalition seeks to dismiss the claim that there is no option other than Modi. But will that translate into votes? Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) The Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Indian National Congress (INC) are two of the 26 opposition parties that make up the INDIA alliance. The new name was proposed by Mamata Banerjee, TMC chief and the chief minister of West Bengal at the opposition meet in Bengaluru. Also read | Rahul Gandhi's ex-colleague defends his ‘flying kiss’ act, calls it an ‘affectionate gesture’ To challenge the BJP in future elections, the coalition aims to develop a strategy and a shared agenda. National Democratic Alliance (NDA) The NDA, a seasoned coalition dedicated to pursuing both national and regional goals, is led by BJP and Prime Minister Modi. NDA has 38 members as of now, and many of them are tiny regional parties. There are key partners like the AIADMK, Lok Janshakti Party, and Shiv Sena. Modi routinely highlights and lauds the NDA's accomplishments and emphasis on the growth of the country. His administration charges the opposition with encouraging nepotism, strife, and corruption. According to Modi, A stands for the aspirations of people and regions, signifying contribution rather than coercion. N stands for New India, D for Developed Nation. UPA to INDIA transition The transition from UPA to INDIA shows the opposition's determination to put together a single front to take on the NDA in the next elections. Watch | PM Modi LIVE: When Congress brings no-confidence motion again in 2028, India will be 3rd largest economy There are indications that Sonia Gandhi, the former president of Congress, would be selected to serve as the alliance's leader. What are the voting shares and seat allocations? In the event of INDIA going together as an alliance in the 2024 election, the most crucial issue would be the division of seats among its members, as the main national party Congress has been at loggerheads in the past with the regional parties now in INDIA. The hardest states to predict are Kerala, where the CPM and Congress have a bitter history of conflict; Punjab, where the AAP and Congress are the two strongest and opposing parties; Uttar Pradesh, where the Samajwadi Party may demand a fair share from Congress; and West Bengal, a state where Mamata Banerjee's TMC and Congress are vying for influence. If partners in the alliance adopt the strategy of preserving the seat to the party that won seats in 2019, and giving the rest to the party which came second in 2019, seat allocation shouldn't be a significant problem. The formula is also based on the notion of natural justice. The numbers game: 144 + 284 + 57 + 58 = 543 The total number of Lok Sabha seats up for election is 543. If one were to add up the seats of all UPA members and the parties that have joined INDIA now, their total seat strength in the current Lok Sabha would be 89% of the available seats, or 485 seats. That number is reached by adding up 144 + 284 + 57. Let's break it down for you. In 2019 election, 144 seats were won by 17 of the 26 parties of UPA , representing 27% of the Lok Sabha. Congress leads this pack with 52 seats, followed by DMK with 23, TMC with 22, and JD(U) with 16 seats. If one were to consider all the other newly added INDIA-related parties, their total seat number adds up to 284. Then there are 57 constituencies where Congress has a natural interest to contest on its own, against regional parties that are currently in or are likely to join INDIA alliance. These include 25 Andhra Pradesh seats, six seats in Telengana and 19 seats in Odisha. Once these 57 seats have been taken into account, and assuming they win all of them, INDIA's Lok Sabha's strength will increase by 10%. So that's 144 + 284 + 57 = 485 There are still 58 seats left to be allotted, out of the total Lok Sabha strength of 543 as mentioned earlier. Out of these, 12 of them are in Bihar, where allies like HAM, RLSP, and VIP have switched sides and joined the UPA or have ceased to exist. The other 37 are in Uttar Pradesh. INDIA alliance will likely support RJD in Bihar and BSP in Uttar Pradesh. Sajjan Kumar, a political analyst, and researcher, told WION, “We saw a sort of 'mahagathbandhan' in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, yet the BJP secured greater victory. So, does coming together of different parties, bring together different voters of the society? The answer is more complicated. The entire compliance will be more than what happened in 2019. Anti-incumbency is going to be there which may lead the BJP to lose seats." "From Mamta Banerjee to Sharad Pawar, to Nitish Kumar in Bihar, in what way they will help? These things don't add up but at the level of opposition, this is a great deal of motivation," he said. "Opposition is also going to make a very aggressive narrative; therefore, a loss is expected in Bihar, in Bengal, and this will give a reason to encircle the BJP, in a tangible sense," he added. "The opposition is going to improve its tally, and Congress may make any addition to its tally. That will be a sort of victory compared to the 2014 and 2019 elections.” One of the questions that remain is, what if the INDIA alliance’s entire vote count is summed up? Will it be able to turn over the NDA? As per the expert, “NDA during Atal Bihari Vajpayee, everyone had the same dilemma, of different ideologies, but the formula has been to abandon your core demand and to come up with a common mindset." "For example, Article 370, Ram Temple, Uniform Civil Code were all rejected during the Atal govt, but that happened when the BJP came on its own. "I feel that if INDIA has the numbers in its favour, then it would be easier to work out, and common things will be adopted. Any opposition, any alliance, the core anchor gets several seats way more than any other constituent parts. "Congress has to be able to get the number to govern. It needs to have 80-100 seats, to claim to dictate the terms, then it will be acceptable to all will be more effective because numerically the Congress will have a psychological impact while regional parties will be at the max 30-40 seats.” (Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.) WATCH WION LIVE HERE:

The Opposition's INDIA vs The NDA: Country’s next power struggle

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