India's population is projected to peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion and then decline by 12 per cent, but the country will remain the world's most populous throughout the century, the United Nations has said.

The World Population Prospects 2024 report, released here on Thursday, said that the world’s population is expected to continue growing over the coming 50-60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After peaking, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century.

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India, which surpassed China as the world's most populous nation last year, will continue to hold that position through 2100.

"The population of India, which is expected to remain the world’s largest throughout the century, will likely decline by 12 per cent after reaching its peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion," the UN report published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs , Population Division said.

According to the report, India's population in 2024 is projected at 1.45 billion and this will peak to 1.69 billion in 2054. After this, India's population is projected to decline to 1.5 billion by the end of the century in 2100, but the country will still remain the most populous nation on Earth.

Responding to a question by PTI on population projections for India, Senior Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, UN DESA Clare Menozzi said at a press conference that "India is currently the largest country in the world in terms of population, and it is projected to stay so throughout the century. The population is currently estimated at 1.45 billion, and it's supposed to increase further" to 1.69 billion.

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"It's supposed to peak around the 2060s in size and then it starts to slightly decline. So by the end of the century, India is projected to be around 1.5 billion, but still the largest country in the world by a large margin.”

The report said that China's population, currently 1.41 billion in 2024, will fall to 1.21 billion in 2054 and further decline to 633 million by 2100.

"It is anticipated that China, the country currently with the world’s second-largest population, will likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 ," followed by Japan and Russia . "Longer-range population projections are more uncertain" for China, it said.

"However, due to its large size and sustained low level of fertility, China is also likely to record the largest population decline of any country through the end of the century . By 2100, China is projected to have lost more than a half of its current population and to have returned to a population size comparable to that recorded in the late 1950s ."

Responding to a question on the significantly low population projection for China, Director of the Population Division at UN DESA John Wilmoth said that "it really relates to the level of fertility that's observed currently in China. The current number is right around one birth per woman on average over a lifetime."

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"Given that you need 2.1 births to maintain the current population without migration, if fertility levels remain at such a low level, even if they come up slightly, any fertility level if it's below two, or especially below 1.8 or below 1.5, you're really getting into low levels of fertility and it produces a long run decline that's quite significant. And that's true for China. It's true for some other countries in this analysis," Wilmoth said.

(Disclaimer: This story has been published from a news agency feed with minimal edits to adhere to WION's style guide. The headline may have been changed to better reflect the content of the story or to make it more suitable for WION audience.)

India's population is projected to peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion and then decline by 12 per cent, but the country will remain the world's most populous throughout the century, the United Nations has said.

India's population is projected to peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion and then decline by 12 per cent, but the country will remain the world's most populous throughout the century, the United Nations has said. The World Population Prospects 2024 report, released here on Thursday, said that the world’s population is expected to continue growing over the coming 50-60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After peaking, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century. Also read: Devastating mass stranding in Scotland: 77 whales dead India, which surpassed China as the world's most populous nation last year, will continue to hold that position through 2100. "The population of India, which is expected to remain the world’s largest throughout the century, will likely decline by 12 per cent after reaching its peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion," the UN report published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs , Population Division said. According to the report, India's population in 2024 is projected at 1.45 billion and this will peak to 1.69 billion in 2054. After this, India's population is projected to decline to 1.5 billion by the end of the century in 2100, but the country will still remain the most populous nation on Earth. Responding to a question by PTI on population projections for India, Senior Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, UN DESA Clare Menozzi said at a press conference that "India is currently the largest country in the world in terms of population, and it is projected to stay so throughout the century. The population is currently estimated at 1.45 billion, and it's supposed to increase further" to 1.69 billion. Also read: VIDEO: SpiceJet employee arrested for slapping cop; airline alleges... "It's supposed to peak around the 2060s in size and then it starts to slightly decline. So by the end of the century, India is projected to be around 1.5 billion, but still the largest country in the world by a large margin.” The report said that China's population, currently 1.41 billion in 2024, will fall to 1.21 billion in 2054 and further decline to 633 million by 2100. "It is anticipated that China, the country currently with the world’s second-largest population, will likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 ," followed by Japan and Russia . "Longer-range population projections are more uncertain" for China, it said. "However, due to its large size and sustained low level of fertility, China is also likely to record the largest population decline of any country through the end of the century . By 2100, China is projected to have lost more than a half of its current population and to have returned to a population size comparable to that recorded in the late 1950s ." Responding to a question on the significantly low population projection for China, Director of the Population Division at UN DESA John Wilmoth said that "it really relates to the level of fertility that's observed currently in China. The current number is right around one birth per woman on average over a lifetime." Also read: Mystery of the 65,000 missing coffee cups at the Tesla plant in Germany "Given that you need 2.1 births to maintain the current population without migration, if fertility levels remain at such a low level, even if they come up slightly, any fertility level if it's below two, or especially below 1.8 or below 1.5, you're really getting into low levels of fertility and it produces a long run decline that's quite significant. And that's true for China. It's true for some other countries in this analysis," Wilmoth said. (Disclaimer: This story has been published from a news agency feed with minimal edits to adhere to WION's style guide. The headline may have been changed to better reflect the content of the story or to make it more suitable for WION audience.)

India's population to decline by 2100, but remain 2.5 times China's size

An inverted, red equilateral triangle - a plain, straight-forward design, is the symbol for family planning. But underlying the simplicity of the symbol is a far more complex problem. As per a UN report, India’s burgeoning population is likely to topple China, to take the first place as the world’s most populous country in less than ten years. Should we be worried? Is 1.4+ billion a blessing or a curse? The answer has been changing over time. 
&nbsp; 
Our efforts to curtail our numbers began quite early. We were the first country in the world to launch a national programme for family planning, way back in 1952. And since then there have been many attempts to discourage enthusiastic Indians from procreating. In those days the Post &amp; Telegraph Department released envelopes, that advised us to get in touch with the Family Welfare Centre for a ‘happy married life’.&nbsp;

In the 60’s the government said - ‘ek, do teen…bus’. We will never really know the number of men who were sterilised during the emergency in 1975. And I guess many of us still remember the famous slogan, ‘hum do humare do’, innocuously placed next to a ‘Horn Ok Please’. There have been many schemes, nudging us and sometimes bullying us, to bring down fertility rates. Historically our population has always been a cause for worry. But things changed a few years ago. What was once a problem, became a boon.&nbsp;&nbsp;

The term ‘demographic dividend’, coined by a Harvard demographer called David Bloom, has been used extensively in the recent past to describe our advantageous position vis-a-vis the rest of the world. Half of India is under the age of 25 - young and eager to harness opportunities. Most of the developed nations are facing the fiscal and social challenges of ageing. On the other hand, for us, the youth is our most valuable asset. The expectation is that an abundant labour pool and a dynamic consuming class will keep our economy on a solid growth path, and propel us to great heights.&nbsp; 
 
And just when we were getting lulled into complacency, comfortable with our humungous size, comes a statement by the Prime Minister from the ramparts of the Red Fort. Modi expressed concern over ‘reckless population explosion’ and spoke of the need for control. "Our population, if unchecked, can pose huge challenges for us and our future generations," he said.&nbsp;His statement is significant. Clearly, population is back on the government’s agenda.&nbsp;

As per Bloom, ‘demographic dividend' lasts for about 50 years. We are in a sweet spot right now. There is a lot of optimistic, feel-good talk about the potential of youth, but we need to also be aware of our rapidly increasing numbers. It is time to begin planning for our future.

The present logically demands that we harness the demographic dividend we’ve been gifted. We need to focus on education and opportunity. About 4.75 million people are added to the labour force every year. They need to be trained. We have to invest in our human capital to be able to utilise its potential. What is the point of having all these enthusiastic, young people, eager to work if there are no jobs. Failure to create an enabling environment will be a missed opportunity for India.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
The present demands our immediate attention, but we cannot afford to lose sight of the future. Our demographics will change, its only a matter of time. By the second half of the century, the proportion of older persons will increase. We must begin preparing for that now.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
The impact of an ageing population is felt across the political, social and economic spectrum. It will come with its own set of pressures. We do not have adequate pension and health insurance schemes. There is no concept of a strong social security net. There will be fiscal and social challenges. There will be mental health issues, cultural challenges of integration, and conflict between generations if the demographic transition is not managed smoothly. It's not going to be easy.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
On the other hand, a growing population will put a strain on our limited resources. The problem is not limited to India. There are going to be around 11 billion of us on planet earth by the end of the century as per the United Nations. All of us scrambling for food, dealing with scarcity of water, grappling with climate change, environmental degradation, poverty, social instability and disease. How are we going to manage.&nbsp;

The significance of Modi’s speech is not lost. The timing is right. Now is the time to be aware of what is coming. Our population is our strength at this moment, but it won’t last forever. Our youth brings us hope for the present. But we need to also start planning for the future.&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

An inverted, red equilateral triangle - a plain, straight-forward design, is the symbol for family planning. But underlying the simplicity of the symbol is a far more complex problem.

An inverted, red equilateral triangle - a plain, straight-forward design, is the symbol for family planning. But underlying the simplicity of the symbol is a far more complex problem. As per a UN report, India’s burgeoning population is likely to topple China, to take the first place as the world’s most populous country in less than ten years. Should we be worried? Is 1.4+ billion a blessing or a curse? The answer has been changing over time. Our efforts to curtail our numbers began quite early. We were the first country in the world to launch a national programme for family planning, way back in 1952. And since then there have been many attempts to discourage enthusiastic Indians from procreating. In those days the Post & Telegraph Department released envelopes, that advised us to get in touch with the Family Welfare Centre for a ‘happy married life’. In the 60’s the government said - ‘ek, do teen…bus’. We will never really know the number of men who were sterilised during the emergency in 1975. And I guess many of us still remember the famous slogan, ‘hum do humare do’, innocuously placed next to a ‘Horn Ok Please’. There have been many schemes, nudging us and sometimes bullying us, to bring down fertility rates. Historically our population has always been a cause for worry. But things changed a few years ago. What was once a problem, became a boon. The term ‘demographic dividend’, coined by a Harvard demographer called David Bloom, has been used extensively in the recent past to describe our advantageous position vis-a-vis the rest of the world. Half of India is under the age of 25 - young and eager to harness opportunities. Most of the developed nations are facing the fiscal and social challenges of ageing. On the other hand, for us, the youth is our most valuable asset. The expectation is that an abundant labour pool and a dynamic consuming class will keep our economy on a solid growth path, and propel us to great heights. And just when we were getting lulled into complacency, comfortable with our humungous size, comes a statement by the Prime Minister from the ramparts of the Red Fort. Modi expressed concern over ‘reckless population explosion’ and spoke of the need for control. "Our population, if unchecked, can pose huge challenges for us and our future generations," he said. His statement is significant. Clearly, population is back on the government’s agenda. As per Bloom, ‘demographic dividend' lasts for about 50 years. We are in a sweet spot right now. There is a lot of optimistic, feel-good talk about the potential of youth, but we need to also be aware of our rapidly increasing numbers. It is time to begin planning for our future. The present logically demands that we harness the demographic dividend we’ve been gifted. We need to focus on education and opportunity. About 4.75 million people are added to the labour force every year. They need to be trained. We have to invest in our human capital to be able to utilise its potential. What is the point of having all these enthusiastic, young people, eager to work if there are no jobs. Failure to create an enabling environment will be a missed opportunity for India. The present demands our immediate attention, but we cannot afford to lose sight of the future. Our demographics will change, its only a matter of time. By the second half of the century, the proportion of older persons will increase. We must begin preparing for that now. The impact of an ageing population is felt across the political, social and economic spectrum. It will come with its own set of pressures. We do not have adequate pension and health insurance schemes. There is no concept of a strong social security net. There will be fiscal and social challenges. There will be mental health issues, cultural challenges of integration, and conflict between generations if the demographic transition is not managed smoothly. It's not going to be easy. On the other hand, a growing population will put a strain on our limited resources. The problem is not limited to India. There are going to be around 11 billion of us on planet earth by the end of the century as per the United Nations. All of us scrambling for food, dealing with scarcity of water, grappling with climate change, environmental degradation, poverty, social instability and disease. How are we going to manage. The significance of Modi’s speech is not lost. The timing is right. Now is the time to be aware of what is coming. Our population is our strength at this moment, but it won’t last forever. Our youth brings us hope for the present. But we need to also start planning for the future. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Riding the ups and downs of the population curve

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/indias-population-grew-at-12-average-annual-rate-between-2010-and-2019-un-209434">India</a>, projected to surpass China as the world's <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/chinas-population-would-be-65-pc-of-indias-by-2050-due-to-low-fertility-trap-expert-150527">most populous country</a> around 2027, is expected to add nearly 273 million people between now and 2050 and will remain the most populated country through the end of the current century, a UN report said on Monday.

''The World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights'', published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said the world's population is expected to increase by two billion people in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050.

The world's population could reach its peak around the end of the current century, at a level of nearly 11 billion, according to the study, which presents the main results of the 26th round of the UN's global population estimates, projections and global demographic patterns.

The new report said that more than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just nine countries, led by India and followed by Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the US.

The report highlighted that "disparate population growth rates" among the world's largest countries will re-order their ranking by size.

India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country around 2027, according to current projections made in the report.

"India is expected to add nearly 273 million people between 2019 and 2050, while the population of Nigeria is projected to grow by 200 million. Together, these two countries could account for 23 per cent of the global population increase to 2050," the report said.

Previous UN projections had estimated that India will surpass China as the world's most populous country as early as 2022. The 2017 world population report, released by the UN two years ago, had estimated that the population of India will surpass that of China's by around 2024. In its 24th round of estimates released in 2015, the UN had projected that India will become more populous than China by 2022.

China, with 1.43 billion people in 2019, and India, with 1.37 billion, have long been the two most populous countries of the world, comprising 19 and 18 per cent, respectively, of the global total in 2019. They are followed by the United States of America, with 329 million in 2019, and Indonesia, with 271 million, the 2019 report said.

The report said that after this re-ordering between 2019 and 2050, the ranking of the five largest countries is projected to be preserved through the end of the century, when India could remain the world's most populous country with nearly 1.5 billion inhabitants, followed by China with just under 1.1 billion, Nigeria with 733 million, the US with 434 million, and Pakistan with 403 million inhabitants.

It further said that in 2019, around 40 per cent of the world's population lives in intermediate-fertility countries, where women have on average between 2.1 and four births over a lifetime.

Average lifetime fertility of 2.1 live births per woman is roughly the level required for populations with low mortality to have a growth rate of zero in the long run. Intermediate-fertility countries are found in many regions, with the largest being India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico, the Philippines and Egypt.

The report also confirmed that the world's population is growing older due to increasing life expectancy and falling fertility levels and that the number of countries experiencing a reduction in population size is growing.

By 2050, one in six people in the world will be over age 65 (16 per cent), up from one in 11 in 2019 (9 per cent). The number of persons aged 80 years or over is projected to triple, from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million in 2050.

Global fertility rate, which fell from 3.2 births per woman in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019, is projected to decline further to 2.2 in 2050. A fertility level of 2.1 births per woman is needed to ensure the replacement of generations and avoid population decline over the long run in the absence of immigration.

UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin said the report offers a roadmap indicating where to target action and interventions.

"Many of the fastest growing populations are in the poorest countries, where population growth brings additional challenges in the effort to eradicate poverty, achieve greater equality, combat hunger and malnutrition and strengthen the coverage and quality of health and education systems to ensure that no one is left behind."

A growing number of countries are experiencing a reduction in population size. Since 2010, 27 countries or areas have experienced a reduction of one per cent or more in the size of their populations, caused by sustained low levels of fertility.

In China, the population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or around 2.2 per cent, between 2019 and 2050.

Further, life expectancy at birth for the world, which increased from 64.2 years in 1990 to 72.6 years in 2019, is expected to increase further to 77.1 years in 2050.

The report added that migration has become a major component of population change in some countries. Between 2010 and 2020, 14 countries or areas will see a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while 10 countries will see a net outflow of similar magnitude.

India, projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country around 2027, is expected to add nearly 273 million people between now and 2050 and will remain the most populated country through the end of the current century, a UN report said on Monday.

India, projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country around 2027, is expected to add nearly 273 million people between now and 2050 and will remain the most populated country through the end of the current century, a UN report said on Monday. ''The World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights'', published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said the world's population is expected to increase by two billion people in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050. The world's population could reach its peak around the end of the current century, at a level of nearly 11 billion, according to the study, which presents the main results of the 26th round of the UN's global population estimates, projections and global demographic patterns. The new report said that more than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just nine countries, led by India and followed by Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the US. The report highlighted that "disparate population growth rates" among the world's largest countries will re-order their ranking by size. India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country around 2027, according to current projections made in the report. "India is expected to add nearly 273 million people between 2019 and 2050, while the population of Nigeria is projected to grow by 200 million. Together, these two countries could account for 23 per cent of the global population increase to 2050," the report said. Previous UN projections had estimated that India will surpass China as the world's most populous country as early as 2022. The 2017 world population report, released by the UN two years ago, had estimated that the population of India will surpass that of China's by around 2024. In its 24th round of estimates released in 2015, the UN had projected that India will become more populous than China by 2022. China, with 1.43 billion people in 2019, and India, with 1.37 billion, have long been the two most populous countries of the world, comprising 19 and 18 per cent, respectively, of the global total in 2019. They are followed by the United States of America, with 329 million in 2019, and Indonesia, with 271 million, the 2019 report said. The report said that after this re-ordering between 2019 and 2050, the ranking of the five largest countries is projected to be preserved through the end of the century, when India could remain the world's most populous country with nearly 1.5 billion inhabitants, followed by China with just under 1.1 billion, Nigeria with 733 million, the US with 434 million, and Pakistan with 403 million inhabitants. It further said that in 2019, around 40 per cent of the world's population lives in intermediate-fertility countries, where women have on average between 2.1 and four births over a lifetime. Average lifetime fertility of 2.1 live births per woman is roughly the level required for populations with low mortality to have a growth rate of zero in the long run. Intermediate-fertility countries are found in many regions, with the largest being India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico, the Philippines and Egypt. The report also confirmed that the world's population is growing older due to increasing life expectancy and falling fertility levels and that the number of countries experiencing a reduction in population size is growing. By 2050, one in six people in the world will be over age 65 (16 per cent), up from one in 11 in 2019 (9 per cent). The number of persons aged 80 years or over is projected to triple, from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million in 2050. Global fertility rate, which fell from 3.2 births per woman in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019, is projected to decline further to 2.2 in 2050. A fertility level of 2.1 births per woman is needed to ensure the replacement of generations and avoid population decline over the long run in the absence of immigration. UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin said the report offers a roadmap indicating where to target action and interventions. "Many of the fastest growing populations are in the poorest countries, where population growth brings additional challenges in the effort to eradicate poverty, achieve greater equality, combat hunger and malnutrition and strengthen the coverage and quality of health and education systems to ensure that no one is left behind." A growing number of countries are experiencing a reduction in population size. Since 2010, 27 countries or areas have experienced a reduction of one per cent or more in the size of their populations, caused by sustained low levels of fertility. In China, the population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or around 2.2 per cent, between 2019 and 2050. Further, life expectancy at birth for the world, which increased from 64.2 years in 1990 to 72.6 years in 2019, is expected to increase further to 77.1 years in 2050. The report added that migration has become a major component of population change in some countries. Between 2010 and 2020, 14 countries or areas will see a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while 10 countries will see a net outflow of similar magnitude.

India's population to cross China’s in next 8 years: UN report