In the run upto EU referedum slated for Thursday and likelihood of Brexit, speculations are rife that leaving the European Union would be a shock for the EU and the global economy.&nbsp; 
 
Some analysts warn of a potential &quot;disintegration&quot; of the EU as remaining countries seek to renegotiate their own relationships with Brussels. 
 
Last week, Germany&#39;s Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier stressed, &quot;It would be a shock for the EU that would require mutual assurances that the EU continues to stick together and that a very successful decades-long process of integration doesn&#39;t in the end turn into disintegration.&quot; 
 
Here are some of the possible knock-on effects of a British departure from the European Union, or Brexit: 
 
&lsquo;Cameron wouldn&rsquo;t last&rsquo;: Conservative veteran Kenneth Clarke has warned that Cameron &quot;wouldn&#39;t last 30 seconds&quot; if Britons vote to leave the EU. 
 
The bookmakers&#39; favourite to replace him is believed to be former London mayor Boris Johnson, the &quot;Leave&quot; camp figurehead. 
 
Second referendum in Scotland: Following the British exit from the EU, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon may launch a second referendum on independence. 
 
This time, Scotland would possibly vote to secede from the United Kingdom, fracturing the UK. Further, Northern Ireland would also be isolated from its EU land neighbour, the Republic of Ireland, and cross-border trade could plunge. 
 
Former British prime ministers John Major and Tony Blair said it would be &quot;difficult if not impossible&quot; to maintain a free-travel area between the neighbours. 
 
The two men, who were key players in bringing an end to sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, also warned that Brexit could put the peace process at risk. 
 
Exit negotiations between London and Brussels: An onset of complicated exit negotiations may begin between London and Brussels, with access to the single market the main bone of contention. 
 
European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker has already said Britain would be &quot;a third party, who we won&#39;t be bending over backwards for.&quot; 
 
More so, WTO Director General Roberto Azevedo said the process could take up to 10 years, and that it &quot;could take quite some time before the UK got back to a similar position that it has today,&quot; given its weak negotiating position. 
 
Recession risk? Turmoil in the markets and uncertainty in the city of London financial hub could lead to a 15-20 percent fall in the pound sterling, inflation at five percent, higher interest rates, a hike in the cost of labour, and the growth rate slowing by 1.0 to 1.5 percent, according to HSBC analysts. 
 
Also, observers are of the view that thousands of jobs in the city could be transferred to Frankfurt or Paris, top companies have warned. 
 
The Brexit camp argues that the business world would adapt quickly with Britain remaining a flexible and dynamic economy, helped by new economic partners and selective immigration. 
 
Although most economic institutions predict long-term pain for post-Brexit Britain, research consultancy Capital Economics said that it would &quot;not spell disaster&quot; indefinitely for the country&#39;s valuable financial sector, highlighting Britain&#39;s legal system, language, time-zone and large pool of skilled labour as &quot;intrinsic advantages.&quot; 
 
Drop in Immigration: Immigration from the EU is likely to drop drastically, leading to a shortage of workers in the construction and service industries. 
 
A win for Brexit in the referendum -- seen by many voters as a proxy poll on immigration -- would increase pressure on the government to impose tough caps on new arrivals. Immigration consistently tops polls of the most important issues for British voters. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
&nbsp;

Observers anticipate drop in immigration, recession risk and a possible second Scottish referendum on independence, if Britain exits from EU

In the run upto EU referedum slated for Thursday and likelihood of Brexit, speculations are rife that leaving the European Union would be a shock for the EU and the global economy. Some analysts warn of a potential "disintegration" of the EU as remaining countries seek to renegotiate their own relationships with Brussels. Last week, Germany's Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier stressed, "It would be a shock for the EU that would require mutual assurances that the EU continues to stick together and that a very successful decades-long process of integration doesn't in the end turn into disintegration." Here are some of the possible knock-on effects of a British departure from the European Union, or Brexit: ‘Cameron wouldn’t last’: Conservative veteran Kenneth Clarke has warned that Cameron "wouldn't last 30 seconds" if Britons vote to leave the EU. The bookmakers' favourite to replace him is believed to be former London mayor Boris Johnson, the "Leave" camp figurehead. Second referendum in Scotland: Following the British exit from the EU, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon may launch a second referendum on independence. This time, Scotland would possibly vote to secede from the United Kingdom, fracturing the UK. Further, Northern Ireland would also be isolated from its EU land neighbour, the Republic of Ireland, and cross-border trade could plunge. Former British prime ministers John Major and Tony Blair said it would be "difficult if not impossible" to maintain a free-travel area between the neighbours. The two men, who were key players in bringing an end to sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, also warned that Brexit could put the peace process at risk. Exit negotiations between London and Brussels: An onset of complicated exit negotiations may begin between London and Brussels, with access to the single market the main bone of contention. European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker has already said Britain would be "a third party, who we won't be bending over backwards for." More so, WTO Director General Roberto Azevedo said the process could take up to 10 years, and that it "could take quite some time before the UK got back to a similar position that it has today," given its weak negotiating position. Recession risk? Turmoil in the markets and uncertainty in the city of London financial hub could lead to a 15-20 percent fall in the pound sterling, inflation at five percent, higher interest rates, a hike in the cost of labour, and the growth rate slowing by 1.0 to 1.5 percent, according to HSBC analysts. Also, observers are of the view that thousands of jobs in the city could be transferred to Frankfurt or Paris, top companies have warned. The Brexit camp argues that the business world would adapt quickly with Britain remaining a flexible and dynamic economy, helped by new economic partners and selective immigration. Although most economic institutions predict long-term pain for post-Brexit Britain, research consultancy Capital Economics said that it would "not spell disaster" indefinitely for the country's valuable financial sector, highlighting Britain's legal system, language, time-zone and large pool of skilled labour as "intrinsic advantages." Drop in Immigration: Immigration from the EU is likely to drop drastically, leading to a shortage of workers in the construction and service industries. A win for Brexit in the referendum -- seen by many voters as a proxy poll on immigration -- would increase pressure on the government to impose tough caps on new arrivals. Immigration consistently tops polls of the most important issues for British voters.

Five possible knock-on effects of Brexit?

Eighty per cent of the estimated 800,000 Poles living in Britain want to stay there even if it leaves the EU, while just three per cent want to return home, a poll published Sunday said. 
 
More than half of the Polish migrants surveyed by Poland&#39;s IBRiS pollsters also said they intend to apply for British citizenship.&nbsp; 
 
The study conducted from June 1517 is the largest ever involving Polish migrants in Britain, which could vote to leave the EU in a referendum on Thursday. 
 
A further 10 per cent of Polish migrants said they would move to another EU state if a Brexit meant they would have to leave Britain. 
 
&quot;Almost nobody wants to leave Britain,&quot; IBRiS chief Marcin Duma wrote in a commentary summing up the survey results.&nbsp; 
 
As non-citizens, the vast majority of Poles in Britain are not entitled to vote in Thursday&#39;s referendum. 
 
Seeking a better life, Poles were the largest group of migrants to head to Britain after the EU&#39;s 2004 &#39;Big Bang&#39; eastern expansion. 
 
Unlike other western EU members who kept up employment restrictions, Britain fully opened its labour market to EU newcomers from the east. 
 
The IBRiS survey also found that nearly 80 percent of Polish migrants agreed with reforms pushed through by conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron to limit their child benefits, a hot-button issue in the referendum. 
 
The IBRiS survey results were published on Sunday by the Polish Press Agency and the Polish Onet.pl website.&nbsp; 
(AFP)

80 per of 800,000 Poles living in Britain want to stay even if it leaves the EU, more than half intend to apply for citizenship

Eighty per cent of the estimated 800,000 Poles living in Britain want to stay there even if it leaves the EU, while just three per cent want to return home, a poll published Sunday said. More than half of the Polish migrants surveyed by Poland's IBRiS pollsters also said they intend to apply for British citizenship. The study conducted from June 1517 is the largest ever involving Polish migrants in Britain, which could vote to leave the EU in a referendum on Thursday. A further 10 per cent of Polish migrants said they would move to another EU state if a Brexit meant they would have to leave Britain. "Almost nobody wants to leave Britain," IBRiS chief Marcin Duma wrote in a commentary summing up the survey results. As non-citizens, the vast majority of Poles in Britain are not entitled to vote in Thursday's referendum. Seeking a better life, Poles were the largest group of migrants to head to Britain after the EU's 2004 'Big Bang' eastern expansion. Unlike other western EU members who kept up employment restrictions, Britain fully opened its labour market to EU newcomers from the east. The IBRiS survey also found that nearly 80 percent of Polish migrants agreed with reforms pushed through by conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron to limit their child benefits, a hot-button issue in the referendum. The IBRiS survey results were published on Sunday by the Polish Press Agency and the Polish Onet.pl website. (AFP)

Poles want to stay in UK regardless of 'Brexit': Polish survey

<div style="text-align: justify;">The campaign to keep Britain in the European Union regained its lead in two opinion polls published on Saturday, giving a boost to Prime Minister David Cameron who is battling to avoid a historic &quot;Leave&quot; vote in Thursday&#39;s referendum. 
 
A third poll also showed a change in momentum in favour of the &quot;Remain&quot; camp and Cameron got the backing of a leading newspaper when the right-leaning Mail on Sunday urged its readers to vote to remain in the EU. 
 
&quot;We are now in the final week of the referendum campaign and the swing back towards the status quo appears to be in full force,&quot; Anthony Wells, a director with polling firm, YouGov, said. 
 
Financial markets around the world are on edge ahead of the June 23 referendum. Recent polls showing the &quot;Leave&quot; camp in the lead have weakened Sterling and helped wipe billions of Pounds off stock markets as investors worried not only about the hit to Britain&#39;s economy and its trading partners, but also about the implications of a so-called Brexit for the EU&#39;s future. 
 
A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times newspaper showed support for Britain staying in the EU had restored a narrow 44-43 per cent lead over the &quot;Leave&quot; campaign. 
 
That poll was based on interviews conducted on Thursday and Friday, but the Sunday Times said the shift did not reflect the fatal attack on a British lawmaker on Thursday which led to the suspension of referendum campaigning. 
 
Instead, the bounce in support for &quot;Remain&quot; was more a reflection of growing concerns among voters about the economic impact of a so-called Brexit, it said. 
 
Cameron and his finance minister, George Osborne, have tried repeatedly to focus voters on the economic risks of leaving the EU&#39;s single market, pointing to forecasts of a hit from the International Monetary Fund, the Bank of England and most private economists. 
 
Campaigning&nbsp;set&nbsp;to&nbsp;resume 
 
Another YouGov poll reported on Saturday but based on surveys conducted on Wednesday and Thursday showed the lead of the &quot;Leave&quot; campaign had narrowed to two points from as wide as seven points less than a week ago. 
 
A third poll on Saturday, by polling firm Survation, gave the &quot;Remain&quot; campaign a three-point lead, reversing a similar lead for &quot;Leave&quot; in a Survation poll published as recently as on Thursday. 
 
A fourth poll, by Opinium, showed the two camp were running neck and neck with 44 per cent support each. That poll was conducted between Tuesday and Friday. 
 
While Cameron got support from the Mail on Sunday&#39;s backing of the &quot;Remain&quot; campaign, its rival The Sunday Times, which sells around half the number of copies as the Mail on Sunday, said it was backing the &quot;Leave&quot; campaign. 
 
The Sunday Times urged voters to vote to leave the EU as a way to press for deeper reform which might make the bloc more acceptable for Britain to actually remain in after a second referendum, an idea floated by &quot;Leave&quot; campaigner Boris Johnson. 
 
But Cameron told the newspaper that there would no second chance to decide Britain&#39;s role in Europe. &quot;This is an irreversible decision with very bad consequences for the British economy,&quot; he said in an interview. 
 
Campaigning was due to resume today&nbsp;after a suspension lasting more than two days following the fatal attack on lawmaker Jo Cox, a member of the opposition Labour Party and a strong supporter of Britain staying in the EU. 
 
The man charged with her murder, Thomas Mair, gave his name as &quot;death to traitors, freedom for Britain&quot; when he appeared in court on Saturday. 
(Reuters)</div>

Cameron is fighting for Britain's stay with EU and believes the "irreversible decision" will have bad consequences for the British economy

The campaign to keep Britain in the European Union regained its lead in two opinion polls published on Saturday, giving a boost to Prime Minister David Cameron who is battling to avoid a historic "Leave" vote in Thursday's referendum. A third poll also showed a change in momentum in favour of the "Remain" camp and Cameron got the backing of a leading newspaper when the right-leaning Mail on Sunday urged its readers to vote to remain in the EU. "We are now in the final week of the referendum campaign and the swing back towards the status quo appears to be in full force," Anthony Wells, a director with polling firm, YouGov, said. Financial markets around the world are on edge ahead of the June 23 referendum. Recent polls showing the "Leave" camp in the lead have weakened Sterling and helped wipe billions of Pounds off stock markets as investors worried not only about the hit to Britain's economy and its trading partners, but also about the implications of a so-called Brexit for the EU's future. A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times newspaper showed support for Britain staying in the EU had restored a narrow 44-43 per cent lead over the "Leave" campaign. That poll was based on interviews conducted on Thursday and Friday, but the Sunday Times said the shift did not reflect the fatal attack on a British lawmaker on Thursday which led to the suspension of referendum campaigning. Instead, the bounce in support for "Remain" was more a reflection of growing concerns among voters about the economic impact of a so-called Brexit, it said. Cameron and his finance minister, George Osborne, have tried repeatedly to focus voters on the economic risks of leaving the EU's single market, pointing to forecasts of a hit from the International Monetary Fund, the Bank of England and most private economists. Campaigning set to resume Another YouGov poll reported on Saturday but based on surveys conducted on Wednesday and Thursday showed the lead of the "Leave" campaign had narrowed to two points from as wide as seven points less than a week ago. A third poll on Saturday, by polling firm Survation, gave the "Remain" campaign a three-point lead, reversing a similar lead for "Leave" in a Survation poll published as recently as on Thursday. A fourth poll, by Opinium, showed the two camp were running neck and neck with 44 per cent support each. That poll was conducted between Tuesday and Friday. While Cameron got support from the Mail on Sunday's backing of the "Remain" campaign, its rival The Sunday Times, which sells around half the number of copies as the Mail on Sunday, said it was backing the "Leave" campaign. The Sunday Times urged voters to vote to leave the EU as a way to press for deeper reform which might make the bloc more acceptable for Britain to actually remain in after a second referendum, an idea floated by "Leave" campaigner Boris Johnson. But Cameron told the newspaper that there would no second chance to decide Britain's role in Europe. "This is an irreversible decision with very bad consequences for the British economy," he said in an interview. Campaigning was due to resume today after a suspension lasting more than two days following the fatal attack on lawmaker Jo Cox, a member of the opposition Labour Party and a strong supporter of Britain staying in the EU. The man charged with her murder, Thomas Mair, gave his name as "death to traitors, freedom for Britain" when he appeared in court on Saturday. (Reuters)

'Remain' campaign gets lead in UK opinion polls

<div style="text-align: justify;">Reeling from the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox, the EU referendum campaign&nbsp;resumed on Sunday, with just four days to go until the critical vote that will shape Britain&#39;s future. 
 
The Remain and Leave camps suspended campaign&nbsp;for three days after the killing of Cox on Thursday. A 52-year-old man has appeared in court charged with her murder. 
 
The polls too close to call, leaders were to hit the television studios on Sunday to begin their final push for votes. 
 
Prime Minister David Cameron, who wants Britain to stay in the European Union, said the country was facing an &quot;an existential choice&quot; from which there would be &quot;no turning back&quot;. 
 
Meanwhile Britain&#39;s Sunday newspapers picked sides in their final editions before the referendum. 
 
The Mail on Sunday and The Observer gave their support to the Remain camp, while The Sunday Times and The Sunday Telegraph broadsheets backed quitting the EU. 
 
Resuming the campaign, Cameron said the British economy &quot;hangs in the balance&quot;, with trade and investment set to suffer in the event of a Leave vote and a &quot;probable recession&quot; that would leave the UK &quot;permanently poorer&quot;. 
 
&quot;If you&#39;re not sure, don&#39;t take the risk of leaving. If you don&#39;t know, don&#39;t go,&quot; he wrote in The Sunday Telegraph. 
 
&quot;If we were to leave and it quickly turned out to be a big mistake, there wouldn&#39;t be a way of changing our minds and having another go. This is it.&quot; 
 
Cameron, finance minister George Osborne and opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, from the Remain camp, were all set for major TV appearances on Sunday. 
 
Meanwhile Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party, was set to do the same for the Leave camp. 
 
Remain poll rise after murder 
 
The What UK Thinks website&#39;s average of the last six polls, conducted between June 10 and Saturday, put the Remain and Leave camps absolutely level on 50-50, excluding undecided voters. 
 
The Leave camp had been a few percentage points ahead in recent polling, but fresh surveys showing a rise in support for remaining brought the average neck-and-neck. 
 
They included the first carried out since Cox&#39;s murder: a Survation poll on Friday and Saturday that put the Remain on 45 per cent and Leave on 42 per cent. 
 
The results were the reverse on Survation&#39;s Thursday poll, which had Leave ahead by 45 to 42. 
 
Labour MP Cox had campaigned for Britain to stay in the EU. 
 
She was shot and stabbed in the street in what police called a &quot;targeted&quot; daylight attack in her constituency. 
 
Cox&#39;s alleged killer Thomas Mair said &quot;Death to traitors, freedom for Britain&quot; when asked to give his name at Westminster Magistrates Court in London on Saturday. 
 
He was remanded in custody until his next court appearance on Monday at England&#39;s central criminal court, and a psychiatric report has been requested. 
 
Cox, 41, is survived by her husband Brendan and their children Lejla, five, and three-year-old Cuillin. 
 
The murder, the first of a sitting British member of parliament since 1990, sent shockwaves around the world, drawing tributes from leaders including US President Barack Obama. 
 
A fund created in Cox&#39;s memory by her friends and family has raised more than $820,000&nbsp;for charities close to her heart. 
 
Weekly newspapers split 
 
In making their decisions, Britain&#39;s Sunday newspapers tried to sway their readers in how to vote. 
 
The Mail On Sunday warned it was &quot;not the time to risk the peace and prosperity&quot; of the UK. 
 
&quot;Our deepest desires must somehow be moderated to suit the increasingly tough reality of a competitive world,&quot; the tabloid said. 
 
&quot;Those who would have you believe in the plucky Little England of the past are selling a dangerous illusion.&quot; 
 
The Observer said: &quot;For an international, liberal and open Britain, we need to be part of the EU.&quot; 
 
The choice was between &quot;going it alone&quot; or a &quot;messy, imperfect collective&quot;, but &quot;outside the EU, our role in the world would be diminished.&quot; 
 
The Sunday Telegraph, meanwhile, backed Brexit, declaring that the EU &quot;belongs to the past&quot;. 
 
&quot;The Leave campaign has articulated an ambitious vision for Britain as an independent nation, once again free to make its own decisions,&quot; it said. 
 
The Sunday Times said &quot;Yes, we must be prepared for difficulties, but we should hold our nerve&quot; in voting Leave. 
 
&quot;This vote may be the only opportunity we shall ever have to call a halt to the onward march of the centralising European project. 
 
&quot;We can help our friends face a better future.&quot; 
(AFP)</div>

Sunday newspapers picked sides in their final editions before the referendum. 'Plucky Little England' no longer the way ahead, said The Mail

Reeling from the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox, the EU referendum campaign resumed on Sunday, with just four days to go until the critical vote that will shape Britain's future. The Remain and Leave camps suspended campaign for three days after the killing of Cox on Thursday. A 52-year-old man has appeared in court charged with her murder. The polls too close to call, leaders were to hit the television studios on Sunday to begin their final push for votes. Prime Minister David Cameron, who wants Britain to stay in the European Union, said the country was facing an "an existential choice" from which there would be "no turning back". Meanwhile Britain's Sunday newspapers picked sides in their final editions before the referendum. The Mail on Sunday and The Observer gave their support to the Remain camp, while The Sunday Times and The Sunday Telegraph broadsheets backed quitting the EU. Resuming the campaign, Cameron said the British economy "hangs in the balance", with trade and investment set to suffer in the event of a Leave vote and a "probable recession" that would leave the UK "permanently poorer". "If you're not sure, don't take the risk of leaving. If you don't know, don't go," he wrote in The Sunday Telegraph. "If we were to leave and it quickly turned out to be a big mistake, there wouldn't be a way of changing our minds and having another go. This is it." Cameron, finance minister George Osborne and opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, from the Remain camp, were all set for major TV appearances on Sunday. Meanwhile Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party, was set to do the same for the Leave camp. Remain poll rise after murder The What UK Thinks website's average of the last six polls, conducted between June 10 and Saturday, put the Remain and Leave camps absolutely level on 50-50, excluding undecided voters. The Leave camp had been a few percentage points ahead in recent polling, but fresh surveys showing a rise in support for remaining brought the average neck-and-neck. They included the first carried out since Cox's murder: a Survation poll on Friday and Saturday that put the Remain on 45 per cent and Leave on 42 per cent. The results were the reverse on Survation's Thursday poll, which had Leave ahead by 45 to 42. Labour MP Cox had campaigned for Britain to stay in the EU. She was shot and stabbed in the street in what police called a "targeted" daylight attack in her constituency. Cox's alleged killer Thomas Mair said "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain" when asked to give his name at Westminster Magistrates Court in London on Saturday. He was remanded in custody until his next court appearance on Monday at England's central criminal court, and a psychiatric report has been requested. Cox, 41, is survived by her husband Brendan and their children Lejla, five, and three-year-old Cuillin. The murder, the first of a sitting British member of parliament since 1990, sent shockwaves around the world, drawing tributes from leaders including US President Barack Obama. A fund created in Cox's memory by her friends and family has raised more than $820,000 for charities close to her heart. Weekly newspapers split In making their decisions, Britain's Sunday newspapers tried to sway their readers in how to vote. The Mail On Sunday warned it was "not the time to risk the peace and prosperity" of the UK. "Our deepest desires must somehow be moderated to suit the increasingly tough reality of a competitive world," the tabloid said. "Those who would have you believe in the plucky Little England of the past are selling a dangerous illusion." The Observer said: "For an international, liberal and open Britain, we need to be part of the EU." The choice was between "going it alone" or a "messy, imperfect collective", but "outside the EU, our role in the world would be diminished." The Sunday Telegraph, meanwhile, backed Brexit, declaring that the EU "belongs to the past". "The Leave campaign has articulated an ambitious vision for Britain as an independent nation, once again free to make its own decisions," it said. The Sunday Times said "Yes, we must be prepared for difficulties, but we should hold our nerve" in voting Leave. "This vote may be the only opportunity we shall ever have to call a halt to the onward march of the centralising European project. "We can help our friends face a better future." (AFP)

'If you don't know, don't go,' Cameron says as Brexit campaign resumes

The IMF has warned Brexit could deal the British economy a &quot;negative and substantial&quot; blow as Vladimir Putin suggested David Cameron was trying to &quot;blackmail&quot; Europe with the EU referendum. 
 
Meanwhile The Times newspaper came out&nbsp;Saturday&nbsp;in favour of Britain staying in the European Union, five days ahead of the vote on whether the UK should stay in the bloc or leave. 
 
The pound rallied as investors leaned towards a Remain outcome from&nbsp;Thursday&#39;s&nbsp;closely-contested referendum. 
 
IMF warns of contagion&nbsp; 
 
With less than a week until the referendum, the International Monetary Fund warned that a so-called Brexit would harm the British economy while &quot;contagion effects&quot; could hit markets worldwide. 
 
In the worst-case scenario, the UK economy would sink into recession next year and overall economic output would be 5.6 per cent lower than otherwise forecast by 2019, with unemployment rising back above six per cent, it said today. 
 
&quot;While there is much uncertainty about the precise economic effects of an exit from the EU, they are likely negative and substantial,&quot; the Washington-based global crisis lender revealed in its annual British economic check-up. 
 
&quot;An exit would precipitate a protracted period of heightened uncertainty that could weigh on confidence and investment and increase financial market volatility.&quot; 
 
In addition, &quot;contagion effects could result in spillovers to regional and global markets, although the primary impact would be felt domestically&quot;. 
 
While in a &quot;limited impact&quot; scenario the IMF said the economy would only lose 1.4 per cent from the current outlook by 2019, the report gave one of the starkest pictures yet of the impact of Brexit. 
 
Putin wades in&nbsp; 
 
Meanwhile Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested British Prime Minister David Cameron had called the referendum to &quot;blackmail&quot; and &quot;scare&quot; Europe. 
 
&quot;Why has he set up this referendum? To blackmail Europe? Or to scare it? What is the purpose if he himself is against Britain leaving the EU,&quot; Putin said today during a meeting with representatives of news agencies. 
 
&quot;Some experts say a Brexit will be to the detriment of Europe. But others say that the EU will be more stable,&quot; Putin said, pointing to the example of British fishermen. 
 
&quot;They explain how hard it is to live with the restrictions on fishing. But there are advantages in other sectors.&nbsp;If you consider all these things, it&#39;s very complicated to choose,&quot; he added. 
 
The What UK Thinks average of the last six opinion polls puts the Remain camp on 52 per cent to 48 per cent for the Leave campaign, excluding undecided voters. 
 
Times&#39; &#39;pragmatic&#39; Remain case 
&nbsp; 
The Times swung behind the Remain camp&nbsp;on Saturday, in opposition to its stablemate The Sun, Britain&#39;s biggest-selling newspaper, which is backing a Leave vote. 
 
&quot;The best outcome of next week&#39;s referendum would be a new alliance of sovereign EU nations dedicated to free trade and reform, led by Britain,&quot; it said in a 2,000-word editorial. 
 
The Times said voting to stay was a &quot;pragmatic rather than enthusiastic choice&quot;. 
 
&quot;Brexit is unquestionably economically riskier than a vote to remain,&quot; the daily said. 
 
&quot;On balance we believe Britain would be better off leading a renewed drive for reform within the EU rather than starting afresh outside it.&quot; 
 
The pound rallied&nbsp;Friday&nbsp;as investors swung their bets towards Britain voting to stay in the EU, in part due to the three-day suspension of campaigning over Cox&#39;s murder. 
 
&quot;The shocking news was seen, at least on the margin, as hurting public sentiment toward the Brexit move,&quot; said Omer Esiner of Commonwealth Foreign Exchange. 
 
Long-running fears of a pro-Brexit vote had been hammering the pound, and they were heightened in recent weeks as the &quot;Leave&quot; campaign pulled ahead in the polls. 
 
The pound surged about one per cent against the dollar to $1.4348. It was up 0.5 per cent against the euro at 78.62 pence. 
 
Meanwhile French National Front leader Marine Le Pen, enthused by the British referendum, addressed a 2,000-strong Vienna rally of far-right European &quot;patriots&quot;. 
 
The elites of Europe &quot;are scared that the United Kingdom is regaining its liberty, its freedom to trade with whom it pleases,&quot; she said. 
(AFP)

'While there is much uncertainty about the precise economic effects of an exit from the EU, they are likely negative and substantial'

The IMF has warned Brexit could deal the British economy a "negative and substantial" blow as Vladimir Putin suggested David Cameron was trying to "blackmail" Europe with the EU referendum. Meanwhile The Times newspaper came out Saturday in favour of Britain staying in the European Union, five days ahead of the vote on whether the UK should stay in the bloc or leave. The pound rallied as investors leaned towards a Remain outcome from Thursday's closely-contested referendum. IMF warns of contagion With less than a week until the referendum, the International Monetary Fund warned that a so-called Brexit would harm the British economy while "contagion effects" could hit markets worldwide. In the worst-case scenario, the UK economy would sink into recession next year and overall economic output would be 5.6 per cent lower than otherwise forecast by 2019, with unemployment rising back above six per cent, it said today. "While there is much uncertainty about the precise economic effects of an exit from the EU, they are likely negative and substantial," the Washington-based global crisis lender revealed in its annual British economic check-up. "An exit would precipitate a protracted period of heightened uncertainty that could weigh on confidence and investment and increase financial market volatility." In addition, "contagion effects could result in spillovers to regional and global markets, although the primary impact would be felt domestically". While in a "limited impact" scenario the IMF said the economy would only lose 1.4 per cent from the current outlook by 2019, the report gave one of the starkest pictures yet of the impact of Brexit. Putin wades in Meanwhile Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested British Prime Minister David Cameron had called the referendum to "blackmail" and "scare" Europe. "Why has he set up this referendum? To blackmail Europe? Or to scare it? What is the purpose if he himself is against Britain leaving the EU," Putin said today during a meeting with representatives of news agencies. "Some experts say a Brexit will be to the detriment of Europe. But others say that the EU will be more stable," Putin said, pointing to the example of British fishermen. "They explain how hard it is to live with the restrictions on fishing. But there are advantages in other sectors. If you consider all these things, it's very complicated to choose," he added. The What UK Thinks average of the last six opinion polls puts the Remain camp on 52 per cent to 48 per cent for the Leave campaign, excluding undecided voters. Times' 'pragmatic' Remain case The Times swung behind the Remain camp on Saturday, in opposition to its stablemate The Sun, Britain's biggest-selling newspaper, which is backing a Leave vote. "The best outcome of next week's referendum would be a new alliance of sovereign EU nations dedicated to free trade and reform, led by Britain," it said in a 2,000-word editorial. The Times said voting to stay was a "pragmatic rather than enthusiastic choice". "Brexit is unquestionably economically riskier than a vote to remain," the daily said. "On balance we believe Britain would be better off leading a renewed drive for reform within the EU rather than starting afresh outside it." The pound rallied Friday as investors swung their bets towards Britain voting to stay in the EU, in part due to the three-day suspension of campaigning over Cox's murder. "The shocking news was seen, at least on the margin, as hurting public sentiment toward the Brexit move," said Omer Esiner of Commonwealth Foreign Exchange. Long-running fears of a pro-Brexit vote had been hammering the pound, and they were heightened in recent weeks as the "Leave" campaign pulled ahead in the polls. The pound surged about one per cent against the dollar to $1.4348. It was up 0.5 per cent against the euro at 78.62 pence. Meanwhile French National Front leader Marine Le Pen, enthused by the British referendum, addressed a 2,000-strong Vienna rally of far-right European "patriots". The elites of Europe "are scared that the United Kingdom is regaining its liberty, its freedom to trade with whom it pleases," she said. (AFP)

Brexit could harm British economy and hit markets worldwide, IMF warns

British lawmaker Jo Cox&#39;s alleged killer ranted against &quot;traitors&quot; during a brief court appearance on Saturday, as the European Union referendum campaigning was suspended for a third day in tribute to her. 
 
&quot;Death to traitors, freedom for Britain,&quot; 52-year-old Thomas Mair said when asked to give his name at Westminster Magistrates&#39; Court in London after being charged with murder, the Press Association reported. 
 
Both sides in the deeply divisive campaign ahead of a referendum on EU membership on next Thursday have cancelled events amid calls for a less acrimonious political debate. 
 
A member of the opposition Labour Party and former aid worker, Cox was an advocate for refugee rights and immigration and wanted Britain to remain in the European Union. 
 
She was shot and stabbed in the street in a daylight attack on Thursday in her constituency in northern England as she was heading for a meeting with local residents. 
 
Although the motive is undetermined, some politicians and commentators have pointed to the heated referendum debate, where sensitive issues like national identity and immigration have featured prominently. 
 
Prime Minister David Cameron and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on Friday brought bouquets to a floral tribute near the scene of the attack in Birstall in Yorkshire. 
 
Cameron spoke out for &quot;tolerance&quot; and against &quot;hatred&quot; in British politics, saying the country was &quot;rightly shocked&quot; at the killing of the 41-year-old mother of two. 
 
The murder, the first of a British member of parliament since 1990, has sent shockwaves around the world. 
 
US President Barack Obama on Friday phoned Cox&#39;s husband Brendan to offer condolences. 
 
&quot;The president noted that the world is a better place because of her selfless service to others, and that there can be no justification for this heinous crime,&quot; the White House said in a statement. 
 
Flowers on the river 
 
Eyewitness Hichem Ben Abdallah, 56, told AFP on Friday that he heard two shots and saw her on the ground. 
 
&quot;Her face was full of blood,&quot; said Ben Abdallah, who campaigned alongside the Labour politician before she was elected to parliament for the first time last year. 
 
&quot;She stood for peace and transparency, fighting corruption, wanted justice for all. I think her flame will carry on,&quot; he said. 
 
&quot;I hope we learn lessons from this,&quot; he added. 
 
A 77-year-old man remains in hospital after being injured trying to help Cox during the attack. 
 
A fund created in Cox&#39;s memory by her friends and family has raised more than $359,000 so far, for charities close to her heart. 
 
The money will support the Royal Voluntary Service which helps combat loneliness in her constituency; the Hope Not Hate anti-extremism group and the White Helmets volunteer search and rescue workers in Syria. 
 
At a vigil in London&#39;s Parliament Square on Friday evening, hundreds of people gathered to lay flowers and pay their respects, holding a minute&#39;s silence. 
 
Cox lived with her husband Brendan and their two children, aged three and five, on a houseboat moored on the River Thames in London, close to the city&#39;s iconic Tower Bridge. 
 
Mourners laid flowers on the roof of the converted barge along with pictures of the slain MP. 
(AFP)

Some politicians and commentators have pointed to the heated referendum debate as a possible motive

British lawmaker Jo Cox's alleged killer ranted against "traitors" during a brief court appearance on Saturday, as the European Union referendum campaigning was suspended for a third day in tribute to her. "Death to traitors, freedom for Britain," 52-year-old Thomas Mair said when asked to give his name at Westminster Magistrates' Court in London after being charged with murder, the Press Association reported. Both sides in the deeply divisive campaign ahead of a referendum on EU membership on next Thursday have cancelled events amid calls for a less acrimonious political debate. A member of the opposition Labour Party and former aid worker, Cox was an advocate for refugee rights and immigration and wanted Britain to remain in the European Union. She was shot and stabbed in the street in a daylight attack on Thursday in her constituency in northern England as she was heading for a meeting with local residents. Although the motive is undetermined, some politicians and commentators have pointed to the heated referendum debate, where sensitive issues like national identity and immigration have featured prominently. Prime Minister David Cameron and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on Friday brought bouquets to a floral tribute near the scene of the attack in Birstall in Yorkshire. Cameron spoke out for "tolerance" and against "hatred" in British politics, saying the country was "rightly shocked" at the killing of the 41-year-old mother of two. The murder, the first of a British member of parliament since 1990, has sent shockwaves around the world. US President Barack Obama on Friday phoned Cox's husband Brendan to offer condolences. "The president noted that the world is a better place because of her selfless service to others, and that there can be no justification for this heinous crime," the White House said in a statement. Flowers on the river Eyewitness Hichem Ben Abdallah, 56, told AFP on Friday that he heard two shots and saw her on the ground. "Her face was full of blood," said Ben Abdallah, who campaigned alongside the Labour politician before she was elected to parliament for the first time last year. "She stood for peace and transparency, fighting corruption, wanted justice for all. I think her flame will carry on," he said. "I hope we learn lessons from this," he added. A 77-year-old man remains in hospital after being injured trying to help Cox during the attack. A fund created in Cox's memory by her friends and family has raised more than $359,000 so far, for charities close to her heart. The money will support the Royal Voluntary Service which helps combat loneliness in her constituency; the Hope Not Hate anti-extremism group and the White Helmets volunteer search and rescue workers in Syria. At a vigil in London's Parliament Square on Friday evening, hundreds of people gathered to lay flowers and pay their respects, holding a minute's silence. Cox lived with her husband Brendan and their two children, aged three and five, on a houseboat moored on the River Thames in London, close to the city's iconic Tower Bridge. Mourners laid flowers on the roof of the converted barge along with pictures of the slain MP. (AFP)

British MP murder suspect Thomas Mair appears in court, says 'death to traitors, freedom to Britain'

British lawmaker Jo Cox, who was killed on Thursday, had previously contacted police after receiving &quot;malicious communications&quot; and they had arrested a man in connection with the investigation in March. 
 
Police said that the man they had arrested at that time was not the 52-year-old man who was being held in custody in West Yorkshire following his arrest close to the crime scene. 
 
&quot;Officers received an allegation of malicious communications from Jo Cox MP, and in March 2016 arrested a man in connection with the investigation,&quot; police said. &quot;The man subsequently accepted a police caution.&quot; 
 
Cox, a 41-lawmaker for the opposition Labour Party and a vocal advocate of Britain&#39;s European Union membership, died after she was shot and stabbed repeatedly by a man who witnesses said shouted &quot;Britain first&quot;. 
 
Both sides in Britain&#39;s EU referendum suspended campaigning after the attack. 
(Reuters)

The police arrested a man in March 2016 but he was not the 52-year-old man who was being held in custody in West Yorkshire

British lawmaker Jo Cox, who was killed on Thursday, had previously contacted police after receiving "malicious communications" and they had arrested a man in connection with the investigation in March. Police said that the man they had arrested at that time was not the 52-year-old man who was being held in custody in West Yorkshire following his arrest close to the crime scene. "Officers received an allegation of malicious communications from Jo Cox MP, and in March 2016 arrested a man in connection with the investigation," police said. "The man subsequently accepted a police caution." Cox, a 41-lawmaker for the opposition Labour Party and a vocal advocate of Britain's European Union membership, died after she was shot and stabbed repeatedly by a man who witnesses said shouted "Britain first". Both sides in Britain's EU referendum suspended campaigning after the attack. (Reuters)

Murdered British lawmaker Jo Cox had contacted police over threats

British support for leaving the European Union (EU) in a June 23 referendum has risen, giving the Out campaign a lead of two to four percentage points, according to opinion polls by Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS), a market research and market information group, and YouGov, an international internet-based market research firm. 
 
A YouGov online poll of 3,495 people for ITV&#39;s Good Morning Britain showed 45 per cent would opt to leave the EU, while 41 per cent would opt to stay. Over 11 per cent of voters were undecided. The poll was carried out from June 1 to June 3. 
 
A TNS online poll of 1,213 people showed 43 per cent would vote to leave, 41 per cent would vote to stay and 16 per cent were undecided. The TNS poll was carried out from May 19 to May 23, &nbsp;but was adjusted for turnout. 
 
Sterling fell one per cent against the dollar to hit a three-week low today, while the cost of hedging against swings over the coming month traded at its highest since early 2009 on growing concerns over whether Britain will stay in the European Union. 
 
Against the dollar, sterling was one per cent lower at $1.4370, having fallen to $1.4352 GBP=D4 in early Asian trading, its lowest in three weeks. The euro was 0.75 per cent higher at 78.95 pence EURGBP=D4. 
 
Sterling fell sharply last Tuesday when both an online and a telephone poll for ICM showed a three-percentage-point lead for the &quot;Leave&quot; campaign.

A YouGov online poll of 3,495 people showed that 45 per cent would opt to leave the European Union, while 41 per cent would opt to stay

British support for leaving the European Union (EU) in a June 23 referendum has risen, giving the Out campaign a lead of two to four percentage points, according to opinion polls by Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS), a market research and market information group, and YouGov, an international internet-based market research firm. A YouGov online poll of 3,495 people for ITV's Good Morning Britain showed 45 per cent would opt to leave the EU, while 41 per cent would opt to stay. Over 11 per cent of voters were undecided. The poll was carried out from June 1 to June 3. A TNS online poll of 1,213 people showed 43 per cent would vote to leave, 41 per cent would vote to stay and 16 per cent were undecided. The TNS poll was carried out from May 19 to May 23, but was adjusted for turnout. Sterling fell one per cent against the dollar to hit a three-week low today, while the cost of hedging against swings over the coming month traded at its highest since early 2009 on growing concerns over whether Britain will stay in the European Union. Against the dollar, sterling was one per cent lower at $1.4370, having fallen to $1.4352 GBP=D4 in early Asian trading, its lowest in three weeks. The euro was 0.75 per cent higher at 78.95 pence EURGBP=D4. Sterling fell sharply last Tuesday when both an online and a telephone poll for ICM showed a three-percentage-point lead for the "Leave" campaign.

TNS, YouGov polls give Brexit lead of 3 percentage points

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